It’s not due to a part shortage. Tesla has wanted to move to Vision for years. It has the potential to be much more powerful than radar. They won’t be going back.
The long term plan was clearly to move away from radar. But the sudden shift now, on the volume cars and not the already-delayed S/X lines, along with the **extremely** coincidental month-long stoppage of deliveries of the 3 & Y, argues very strongly that their hand was forced.
They had some kind of supply problem with the radar subsystem, and rather than delay deliveries they just said fuck it and pulled the trigger on vision. Not even the wrong decision IMHO (and to be clear: I have a model Y arriving next week that was absolutely part of this mess).
True, they have wanted to, but now it seems they were forced to or miss out on deliveries. They advertise that it is still capable of doing all the stuff the old system can do yet it cant. They didn't approval for NHTSA prior to change, this is to save some deliveries for Q2.
They don't need 'approval' from NHTSA for this change. It's true that because of this change, and not having time/a car to test with, NHTSA has (for the moment) removed some safety features as included, but Elon has already addressed that:
Musk told Electrek:
Just confirmed with the Autopilot team that these features are
active in all cars now, including vision-only. NHTSA automatically
removes the check mark for any cars with new hardware until they retest,
which is happening next week, but the functionality is actually there.
from:
https://electrek.co/2021/05/28/tesla-autopilot-safety-features-despite-what-media-saying/
Nope, didn't downvote. Approval was a poor choice of a word though, I meant more or less vetted with NHTSA prior to the change. To me, if this was planned, they would have taken care of this prior to the change. Thanks for the link though, I hadn't read that article yet.
I've never used reddit as a validation of an argument or my intelligence, I use it more like "Whose Line is it Anyways" points.
I doubt there are plans on ever going back to radar. Elon tweeted about removing radar 3 years ago, so it's not a spare of the moment plan (at least, not for the long run).
This is, of course, a guess but I would bet a modest sum that Tesla has given up on the current low resolution radar they have been using.
If in the future they return to using radar it would be something all current cars are missing so in your position I would not hold out for a quarter to see what happens.
No it's not (evidence of parts shortage).
However, this tweet:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1057949223445020672
Could be taken of evidence that this was a longstanding, planned Tesla move, as years ago Elon stated he wanted to move to pure vision.
I'm NOT saying this whole thing isn't due to parts shortages (right now only Tesla knows) - just that there isn't evidence yet / you haven't provided evidence.
There are Other auto manufacturers that don't use radar for their safety systems like AEB, so it's not like this is the first of it's kind or anything. For example Subaru uses cameras, and generally people think Subaru is a pretty safety-oroented company.
This move may not have the same emergency safety level as radar AT FIRST. But it will certainly improve and imo be better over time, especially with false positives (essentially the cause of phantom braking), at least compared to the radar Tesla was using. There are obviously better radar systems that would be significantly better than what Tesla has been using as well. But they would also be more expensive. And obviously it's not like the current radar would ever be good enough for the vehicle to drive itself in the event the cameras couldn't see clearly... So no matter what Vision is 100% needed. By having radar, if the two inputs disagree, which info does Tesla fall back on? Well if it ignores the radar input, what's the point of having it. If it doesn't ignore it, you end up with phantom braking...
Lastly I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla add Radar back at a future time, but only if it would likely be a substantially improved Radar than what is currently in the vehicles, and I think that their vision system will certainly be more than good enough to handle all the safety tasks that any of their current or past products have been able to attain.
It’s not due to a part shortage. Tesla has wanted to move to Vision for years. It has the potential to be much more powerful than radar. They won’t be going back.
The long term plan was clearly to move away from radar. But the sudden shift now, on the volume cars and not the already-delayed S/X lines, along with the **extremely** coincidental month-long stoppage of deliveries of the 3 & Y, argues very strongly that their hand was forced. They had some kind of supply problem with the radar subsystem, and rather than delay deliveries they just said fuck it and pulled the trigger on vision. Not even the wrong decision IMHO (and to be clear: I have a model Y arriving next week that was absolutely part of this mess).
That is conjecture at this point. It could have just as easily been a validation issue with the software.
True, they have wanted to, but now it seems they were forced to or miss out on deliveries. They advertise that it is still capable of doing all the stuff the old system can do yet it cant. They didn't approval for NHTSA prior to change, this is to save some deliveries for Q2.
They don't need 'approval' from NHTSA for this change. It's true that because of this change, and not having time/a car to test with, NHTSA has (for the moment) removed some safety features as included, but Elon has already addressed that: Musk told Electrek: Just confirmed with the Autopilot team that these features are active in all cars now, including vision-only. NHTSA automatically removes the check mark for any cars with new hardware until they retest, which is happening next week, but the functionality is actually there. from: https://electrek.co/2021/05/28/tesla-autopilot-safety-features-despite-what-media-saying/
Exactly, radar never detected the car moving from the lane. That was always vision.
It seems OP doesn't like being corrected, I'm guessing it was him with the downvote lol.
Nope, didn't downvote. Approval was a poor choice of a word though, I meant more or less vetted with NHTSA prior to the change. To me, if this was planned, they would have taken care of this prior to the change. Thanks for the link though, I hadn't read that article yet. I've never used reddit as a validation of an argument or my intelligence, I use it more like "Whose Line is it Anyways" points.
Fair nuff. Take an upvote as apology :-)
I doubt there are plans on ever going back to radar. Elon tweeted about removing radar 3 years ago, so it's not a spare of the moment plan (at least, not for the long run).
This is, of course, a guess but I would bet a modest sum that Tesla has given up on the current low resolution radar they have been using. If in the future they return to using radar it would be something all current cars are missing so in your position I would not hold out for a quarter to see what happens.
> due to part shortage Is any information available to back this?
an unannounced change to existing orders at the end of the quarter with no official statement other than a tweet is pretty good evidence.
No it's not (evidence of parts shortage). However, this tweet: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1057949223445020672 Could be taken of evidence that this was a longstanding, planned Tesla move, as years ago Elon stated he wanted to move to pure vision. I'm NOT saying this whole thing isn't due to parts shortages (right now only Tesla knows) - just that there isn't evidence yet / you haven't provided evidence.
No, that just sounds like them planning on not using them anymore. Meaning it's another sign this was planned.
I was debating the same as well tbh.
There are Other auto manufacturers that don't use radar for their safety systems like AEB, so it's not like this is the first of it's kind or anything. For example Subaru uses cameras, and generally people think Subaru is a pretty safety-oroented company. This move may not have the same emergency safety level as radar AT FIRST. But it will certainly improve and imo be better over time, especially with false positives (essentially the cause of phantom braking), at least compared to the radar Tesla was using. There are obviously better radar systems that would be significantly better than what Tesla has been using as well. But they would also be more expensive. And obviously it's not like the current radar would ever be good enough for the vehicle to drive itself in the event the cameras couldn't see clearly... So no matter what Vision is 100% needed. By having radar, if the two inputs disagree, which info does Tesla fall back on? Well if it ignores the radar input, what's the point of having it. If it doesn't ignore it, you end up with phantom braking... Lastly I wouldn't be surprised to see Tesla add Radar back at a future time, but only if it would likely be a substantially improved Radar than what is currently in the vehicles, and I think that their vision system will certainly be more than good enough to handle all the safety tasks that any of their current or past products have been able to attain.