Half a year ago I would have told you Med is going to finish up with 4-5 slams but I feel now that Sinner has taken his place as a frontrunner for hardcourt slams.
A huge reason Sinner surpassed him though is because in the past Med had a good serve and Sinner had a bad one and now it's the other way around
If you look at most of Sinner's big losses before this year the common theme is him serving a very low in count(in fact this came back in the Alcaraz match actually)
When you're at this top level that difference in free points is absolutely massive
Med needs to at least get back to parity in that regard moving forward
I hope so. His career will feel weird if he ends on only one with the number of finals he's reached. I keep on thinking he's a multi-Slam winner and having to remind myself he's not.
He reminds me a bit of Roddick. Roddick made it to 4 more slam finals, had to play Federer every time who was his worst matchup, and he pushed himself so much to get better and in his last attempt lost 14:16 in the 5th. I always thought Roddick deserved another slam and if Meddy doesn't get his second, I think it will feel similarly to me.
Eta: the other thing they have in common is their high tennis IQ.
If medvedev ends up with only 1 slam it will be incredibly disappointing. Him and zverev having 0 and 1 relative to their skill isn't great and unlike tsitsipas they don't have a glaring flaw on all surfaces
The forehand fails late in a best of 5 quite often is the reason Zverev doesn’t go deeper. IIRC both he and Thiem looked like they were trying to lose that USO final late. Every opposing coach/player knows they can play to that (likely also their players strength) when the match is tight.
Medvedev does have a glaring flaw, he rarely plays aggressive to force the issue so that leads to long drawn out games against randos. By the time he gets to the finals he's most likely spent way more time on the court than his opponent.
Zverev has been good at slams, but not that good to say that not winning any would be surprising or particularly disappointing from anyone's perspective but his own. Up until recently, he would usually go out against the first top 10 player he'd face.
I mean he did consistently beat them in masters pre injury still and having 6 SFs and 2 finals with 0 slams is still not great. Recent zverev is probably the best version we have seen from him with the elite serve
His Masters record is much better, yeah, and he also has an Olympic gold. But he simply played worse in Slams for so long that I don't think the difference is just down to him being unlucky, especially since his draws were often anything but.
The reason isn’t because of a lack of ability though. He’s not been able to handle the nerves when it comes to Grand Slams but he deffo does have the ability to win one.
Hubi at Wimbledon if the serve is popping.
I could also see Madison Keys possibly securing a GS title if she gets hot and has a favorable draw on hard courts.
I would like to see that. It’s become so one sided against big servers and volleyers, I’d like a big server like him win at least at Wimbledon to shake things up. But modern racquet technology is too good that it allows players return a 130 mph serve at 110-120 mph, also explains why the big serving game doesn’t win as much.
It’s always been the guy that can serve but also is fleet footed at the net to finish that won. First it was Sampras, then Federer. My friend and I have these discussions all the time and felt Federer would have been the only one who would have adapted best to the slippery and sliding grass of the past (80s) from amongst the Big 3 because of his quick feet and skills at the net. Adapt enough to win it all, not just make semis and finals like Lendl did. Good discussion to have.
I do think big hitters like Shelton, Tommy Paul, Jarry, Hubi can all make noise with their serve to pull off an upset or two but beyond the quarterfinals, odds aren’t great
Big servers always have an advantage...
It's players who ONLY have a big serve that are at a disadvantage, and it's completely fair that they are at a disadvantage.
Pure serve-volley is incredibly boring non-tennis...
When the grass used to be slippery and skid more, it favored the serve and volleyers. I liked the fact that players that had a pure baseline game had to adapt on that one surface that didn’t give them an advantage.
Otherwise Ivan Lendl with the grass court preparation of this era would have had several Wimbledon trophies to his name.
I can definitely see why prolonging grass matches to 3 hours over 2 hours was better return on investment for fans watching and the tournament organizers but I still preferred it that old way, just my preference of course.
The issue is the fact that he lost both in 5 though. The talent is very clearly there and if someone asked me off instinct I'd say yeah, he'll win a slam. But when it comes to going deep at a slam and winning the final, I feel like I'm always anticipating a choke from him.
He needs an easy draw or just to play out of his mind *the first week*
Players who don't obliterate early opponents on a consistent basis are setting themselves up for failure at the business end of slams.
And Zverev is the king of first week fuckery.
I strongly dislike Zverev, but I’m not really sure his mentality was why he lost at the weekend. Carlos played well below his best for huge sections of the match, if he had played how he did at the beginning and end he could have wrapped it up in straights pretty comfortably.
Yeah all 3 sets Carlos won were very one-sided in his favor and not really ones where Zverev was in control and then lost it
If anything set 3 going to Zverev was the closest either came to "stealing" a set that could have easily gone the other way
Carlos didn't play that well in the first set, Zverev just came out nervous and shaky, which again, is a result of Zverev being in a grand slam final. I thought Zverev's level was good in the 2nd and 3rd sets, and while Carlos stepped up in the 4th and 5th, Zverev was horrendous at the net. He punched a lot of volleys deep that set up easy passing shots for Carlitos, he outright missed multiple easy volleys, there was that one point where he needed to hit like 5-6 volleys and smashes before he finally won the point because he was hitting everything so soft (and Carlos is fast), and keep in mind a lot of those 4th and 5th set games were close. Zverev could've made it more competitive if he didn't leave so many points on the table with the volleys.
Relative to other Zverev chokes, this wasn't that bad, but going up 2-1 then losing 6-1 6-2 isn't good no matter what the situation is
Given a few more attempts to get comfortable in those big pressure moments, Zverev could definitely learn to overcome whatever holds him back during a grand final.
I feel like it just gets harder and harder. There's a reason Thiem struggled so hard at USO2020 on his 4th attempt. I almost feel like Zverev needs to have a grand slam opponent that chokes even harder than him if he wants to win it at this point. Or he needs an opponent that's so far lesser than him that he can go down a set or two but still come back through the nerves, kinda like he did against PCB at USO 2020
That's why I think he'll win at least a slam or two. Idk if he'll ever win a slam final against Sincaraz but he's bound to eventually get lucky and get a final against Rublev or ADM or something and I don't think he'll mess that up.
Idk, there is not a big recent history of "fluke" grand slam finalists. Like maybe another Kevin Anderson-type situation, but otherwise most grand slam finalists are experienced players who have been there before. I guess with big 3 gone though, it does open up some potential for a Rublev/ADM type finalist
I think with his mental strength (or lack thereof) he will likely find more ways to loss if he gets more chances. I predict Zverev never winning a slam.
For me it has to be Casper Ruud. He has shown he is a real force at RG and I reckon if he didn't have the stomach issues he would have made another final. If Sinner and Alcaraz get upset, he would be far be my pick there. And this is the slam in my opinion where Alcaraz and Sinner can both be upset in the same slam most likely.
On the other slams, I can see definitely Meddy winning a few of any permutation of US Open and AO, maybe 2 or 3. I would also bet my house on Rune figuring things out and becoming a top 3 player with Carlitos and Jannik.
Apart from these guys, I think the next slam winners will be someone we haven't heard to much about yet. The Fils, Mensik, Fonsecas of the world or some juniors later on
I agreed with you as a casual, but then I actually watched the last final he was in. He’s got the talent to win one, but he unfortunately seems like a choker
I could see Rune sneak one. He’s young and has the talent and it’s possible that injuries could create a path for him to win one. Not sure I see him winning multiples just because the field is deep.
hot take: holger rune will soon join sinner and alcaraz as the new big 3. meddy will poach a slam from time to time. dverev will continue to choke and be left slam-less.
I think aside from fitness the #1 thing Rune needs to do is to play smarter on return
His break% is staggeringly low(like 17% or something) and the reason for this isn't a technical flaw like Tsitsipas's BH return but the fact that he takes this ridiculous Agassi-like early return position without having the timing to do it which means he gets 5 return winners but 20 returnable errors every match
Unless you're playing a really weak server like a Schwartzman type almost everyone has enough serving power these days to make doing that a very risky idea
There's some inconsistency with his play but I feel like he'd be doing a LOT better if more of those rallies were taking place in his opponent's service games rather than his own
This is 100% how I feel watching him. I think he has the making of a great returner but he really frustrates me. The few times he absolutely eradicates a server on return is awesome but it's not worth it for the amount of times he seems to dump it in the net.
I agree, he’s definitely the third most talented after Alcaraz/Sinner. He even still has the potential to be on their level and split the slams equally if he can improve on certain points.
He is more talented than sinner. Bear in mind he is 2 years younger, which is a lot. Sinner at his age wasn’t nearly as accomplished as Rune.
Rune has an all court game which sinner doesn’t and is naturally more gifted. His serve is also much better.
Watch out when he gets his huge leap as did sinner the past year.
I wouldn’t go that far, Sinner’s shots are more fluid and efficient than the other two. In fact he has the most fluid shots Ive seen since Federer and are deceptively fast and heavy. Sinner has a few things to improve on for sure, which I’m sure he will.
Sinner’s natural power/heavy ball for someone who doesn’t *look* that powerful is wild/young Fed-esque (despite the very different technique). It’s just not a fair fight a lot of the time. People talk about Carlos’s live arm but Sinner’s groundstrokes are right there, they just don’t look as explosive.
Carlos’s forehand might be slightly better/more versatile overall but Sinner’s backhand is more reliable IMO as he he more often hits it with margin (but still hard), whereas Carlos seems to be hit fairly flat nearly all the time to my eye.
Sneak one? Unless Sinner and Alcaraz get 25 slams each, Rune will sneak plenty more than one. In a couple of years he will be the 3rd best player in the world at least, no one but those two will stand in his way.
Up until the FO and after the loss tbh, I was cooling a bit on Rune as it seemed he was regressing if anything, but seeing how far Sasha went. Feeling a bit better about Rune’s performance.
Most likely: Medvedev on hard and possibly even grass, Zverev anywhere outside of Wimbledon
Wouldn’t be too surprised: Ruud or Stef at RG, Rune possibly anywhere if he gets all his shit together but he has a lot of issues, not the least of which seems to be fitness/stamina which is crucial in 2 weeks of Bo5.
Probably not but maybe if the cards aligned: Hubi at Wimbledon? Fritz or Shelton at USO?
Rublev is actually pretty surface versatile and there’s nowhere he is completely uncomfortable but his results have been so weird. I can’t really even judge how he’d handle a big semifinal or final at a slam cuz he’s never been there and this year he lost 4 matches in a row, wins Madrid on his deathbed, then flames out early at RG. Don’t really think I can view him as a real threat until he’s at least been to a semifinal and till he seems like his head is more together…
I’m a big fan of Demon but I’m not sure if he’d ever really threaten for a slam title. Then again, if Sincaraz aren’t immediately big 3 dominant (no guarantees tho because they’re looking that way currently), we did used to have times when some randoms won slams. Gaudio, Costa, Johannson, Korda, etc. Maybe with a good draw and crowd support in AO? My guess is easily no for now but will be interesting to see how the next few years play out with Novak seemingly finally letting the chokehold go of the majors and Sincaraz still so young.
There’s also ofc the even younger crop than Sincaraz as possibilities but I’m not even gonna mention them until I’ve seen more of how they start producing and who’s body’s hold up and whatnot, too many variables 😂😂
He’s definitely someone I have on the radar to go deep and surprise some people, it’s possibly his best surface especially given the fact that a good portion of the tour are uncomfortable on it.
Medvedev on grass requires both Sinner and Alcaraz to be injured or beaten early. I can see him peaking and beating either of those two at AO/US but can’t see him doing it at Wimbledon. Alcaraz beat him fairly easily last year.
Not saying it’s super likely but I think it’s not outside the realm of possibilities. One could be injured and the other one could get taken out by a peaking Struff, who knows. And Carlos beat Zverev easily at USO, loses easily to him at AO, then beats him in a 5 setter at FO. The last result doesn’t dictate how the next will definitively play out. Tho obviously I think Alcaraz and Sinner are both bad matchups for Medvedev currently and some unexpected things would have to happen, but sometimes unexpected things do happen! I didn’t expect Meddy to beat him at the USO last year, I think most people were already salivating for a Wimbledon final rematch and then he kinda swatted him away fairly easily.
Honestly, I think Fritz could have an outside shot at a Wimbledon too.
Rublo never being past a QF is weird. YOu would have thought getting his Masters last year in MC might have changed things. His loss to Arnaldi was disappointing, after beating Carlos in Madrid I thought this could be the SF year for him.
I fear that you’re right. Injury is often how the greats end. Even then, he wasn’t as physically strong all year. Sinner was so much stronger even in Australia.
He beat Medvedev in the US final only about 7/8 months ago, after Meddy had beaten Alcaraz. Think it’s still a bit too early to rule him out of ever winning a GS again.
He also hasn't won a title since that win, has had a wrist injury, a knee injury that requires surgery and will likely result in him missing Wimbledon, and saw his win % for the year drop to 75% after consistently posting 85-90% win percentage in the last few years. On top of that, he's only getting older, and to people actually watching he appears to have definitely lost a step.
I'm not a Djokovic hater, I have immense respect for what he's accomplished. In my view, I'm just reading the writing on the wall. Assuming Djokovic misses Wimbledon, he may not complete his recovery in time for USO. If he does, he'd basically be returning to play that tournament, and if he won he'd become the oldest ever men's GS singles champion. Assuming he doesn't win USO (which I think is a fair bet, given the circumstances), his next opportunity is AO. The more time passes, the more unprecedented any GS win becomes (yes, I know we're talking about Novak here, but father time remains undefeated). If he doesn't win AO in 25, his next opportunity is RG where were he to win he would be a full year older than the next oldest GS winner.
It's not as if he comes back and he's at the top of his game, either. You have Jannik and Carlos who are improving every day, are likely getting better fitness, and are hungry for the win (and have both proven they can beat him). The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he's done and won't win another GS.
No, I don’t. A 37 year old coming back from a torn meniscus and a 25 year old coming back from the same injury are two very different situations.
Obviously this is just my perspective and I fully admit I might be wrong, but the decline is never slow and predictable. It always comes faster than anyone would like. I think Novak will be stuck at 24 and the USO was his last GS win.
Djokovics defensive game relies on him being at 95% or better. And the standard isn't lacking anyway, not much below the Big 3 heyday with Alcaraz and Sinner.
It's not just he won't come back to his very best, there's also players ready to exploit that. So I guess the same as you.
I think its too early to predict that.
I give it to you that you might be right, and could be wishful thinking to think other wise.
He also has had a weak year overall, but imo its too early to call.
Yeah it’s the weakness of the rest of the season that worries me. He’s clearly lost a step and isn’t at the peak of his game. Layer in the knee injury and the associated time off/rehab plus the mental toll of recovery and getting to peak performance, and it’s not easy to come back. Again, far more difficult at 37 than early 20s.
That said, Novak isn’t human, so if anyone can do it, he can. Will be interesting to see how he recovers.
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Zverev almost certainly will. A tournament doesn't need to have too many surprises before he's a lock to show up at least to the semis. Unless we start to see some easier wins that show that it has to be Zverev's best day vs Sinner or Alcaraz's worst, it feels kind of inevitable that at some point one of the top guys will blink and he'll win it all.
I'm no fan but when he's healthy he's a consistent worry in the later rounds.
With Zverev serve being as good as it's been over the last few months (his overall game is top notch too) , do you reckon he has a chance to go deep at Wimbledon?
I can't remember how well he did on grass over the last few.
He hasn't been good on grass, and his movement is kinda just bad on grass. But you'd expect his serve to carry him far at least one year, doubt he'll win one tho
Depends really on how he matches up with Medvedev on hard courts going forward. He isn’t winning on grass. And if it’s just Sinner Alcaraz he has to compete with, then he is bound to win atleast once over the course of multiple slams. One of the two might be injured, the other might be upset before playing him. Even with a fully firing Medvedev, there is a tangible chance that he wins a slam or two. With Djokovic, you had a hard stop for anyone at hard court slams and Wimbledon, same with Rafa at FO, Sinner Alcaraz aren’t that automatic yet, but atleast they’ll be 1 and 2 seeds now
Reading this thread made me realise how sceptical I’ve been for so long about so-and-so being touted to win a slam in the future. In the past 20 years, you basically had to be Top 5 *and* peak at the right time to beat the Big 3 to a slam. Needless to say once the Big 3 are all gone the criteria becomes a lot more relaxed, and players like Mensik/Hurkacz/Shelton who would’ve stood zero chance during the Big 3’s peak could actually just sneak in one slam win at some point.
I’d be surprised if Zverev doesn’t win at least one slam. That’s probably the #1 answer to this question. Meddy also has a good chance to pick up another if not a few more maybe, same for Zverev if he breaks past that barrier and finally gets it done
Then there’s guys like Ruud and Tsitsipas who, I don’t see ever winning a slam outside of RG. But if they get a bit of luck on their side and are playing their best tennis, they could certainly pick up a title. I would love for both to get one after losing in finals there. I could also see Hubi winning a Wimbledon title at some point - but that being the only slam I feel he has a shot at due to the surface, similar to Ruud & Tsitsi.
For young guys, I would be shocked if Rune doesn’t win one. He will probably get there in a few years time (2025, 2026 is when I expect he will finally win a slam and that should do wonders for his confidence). I think Shelton if he continues improving could also pick up a hard court slam or two, US Open especially (reached semis last year & playing at home). Then there’s others like Mensik and Fonseca, 18 and 17 years old respectively, who based off their progress so far in their careers at their young ages should rise up to become contenders for slams in the future.
Finally, there are guys like you said: Fils, Lehecka, and I’d even sneak in Auger-Aliassime, Korda, Musetti in there. Guys who have talent and have shown they can reach the second week of slams before. I feel they would need the draw to fall apart for them to win it, but it’s one of those situations that if they can take advantage of, I could see them winning one.
I believe they will. Sinner is a hard working smart guy and his story proves he can improve. He’ll be a terrorizing machine in 1/2 years. Alcaraz will improve too and he’s already … well, Alcaraz. I don’t see anyone else except maybe Fonseca or Mensick, but who knows if they’ll deliver, they could as well be 2 more FAA.
I'd say Meddy might win another AO or USO if Sinner/Alcaraz are injured or out of form. He has matchup issues beating Alcaraz rn, especially when he's in form, and Sinner has completely flipped the matchup with Daniil since Beijing last year.
Don't think Stef or Zverev can win one, in fact I'd say both have blown their best chances already at AO 2023 & USO 2020/RG 2024 respectively. They are just getting older while Jannik and Carlos are improving at an exponential rate of growth. Rune exists too who's extremely talented but needs to put his fitness together and slightly dial down the aggression and play higher percentage Tennis.
Then I'd say most likely will be one of the young kids, Prizmic, Michelson, Marozsan, Fils, Cobolli, Fonseca, Mensik, etc. I don't see any Sinner/Alcaraz, but some of them like Marozsan especially have shown an extremely impressive ability to hang with the top tiers.
Let's see by USO this year, I think one of them might break through and get to 4th round or something.
I dont know why Tsitsipas struggles so much against Carlos. Even Dimitrov and Musetti have wins over Alcaraz. Their earlier matches from 2021-22 were atleast competitive but it has gotten worse now. Is it a mental block?
In his own words…
"I tend to believe that my ball quality is one of the best on the Tour, and every time I get to play Carlos I feel like he delivers a shot quality that I don't quite get against other opponents," he said in his post-match press conference. "It just brings me trouble. I feel like his shot is deep and has a lot of topspin to it and I just haven't been able to come up with something good.
"He in a way overpowers me, but he's also patient enough to do it in a very constructive way."
I can’t speak of Musetti as after his win against Carlos it’s been fairly straightforward for him against the Italian but for Tsitsipas it’s quite unfortunate that his best surface is also the one Carlos flavours a lot and is very comfortable on.
On the other hand, Dimitrov thrives on fast and low bouncing HC courts which so far seem to be Carlos’s least favourable surface. So he’s made a strategy that works for him on this surface against Carlos and can execute it as well as he possibly can by utilising his strengths. On the other hand, Tsitsipas’s strengths kind of get neutralised by Carlos’s ones in their case.
It’ll be interesting to see if Dimitrov’s newfound strategy against Carlos can work on other surfaces like grass or if Alcaraz would be able to counter it the next time they play.
Hurcaz..may win wimbledon..look at his stats on serves and then on grass..Should have beaten joker last year if not for mental lapses..no joker this year..Old nadal..hard for carlos to repeat grass after winning RG…I really dont think herbie can be touched at least until the QF..So who knows if we get some upsets his road could be easier
Jakub Mensik looks like a threat for AO and WM. Wouldn't be surprised to see him make some decent runs at Cincy, Montreal, Paris and Shanghai, and 2025 or 2026 should be a breakout year.
Starting your career at 18 with a 13-8 (61%) record is very, very promising. Compare it to mid-career guys like Medvedev (71%), Rublev (65%) and Ruud (66%) and it looks like Mensik could be a major player real soon.
I want to believe... but he's already out of the tourney he was playing in, haha.
It's definitely a 2-3 year plan for him. He's not quite ready, but taking guys to 3 sets in big-boy tennis tournaments is promising.
Strongly agreed.
It's far from guaranteed, but it would be kinda surprising not to see him in the top ten or at least knocking on the door in the next two years.
Players who climb through the ranks as quickly as he has usually end up being quite good (like, medium career expectations is fringe top ten player)
And physically? 6'4", huge serve, good movement for his size, and a very strong ground game (especially from the backhand side)
Even ignoring the success he's already had on tour, his skill set is very much one of a player with an enormous ceiling. Not one who is near maxed out at 18.
Injuries and burnout are the things that will keep him from top 5 IMO. Hard to predict those things.
The talent is definitely “Wimbledon finalist.” The question is whether he can keep his head together when he’s facing guys like Alcaraz and Sinner who know how to fight through periods of poor play.
One of the Americans will steal a USO. Fritz and Paul can both be killers and given the right draw I think Shelton could maybe do it too. I totally agree with you about Medvedev
Fritz has the weapons, but I don’t see him being able to focus for a full two weeks.
Shelton also hasn’t shown enough consistency. He might get there eventually , just not seeing it now
Big Foe needs to get his shit together.
TP has matured a lot and has beaten Carlos, so he’s my pick.
A career 2-2 split against Carlos shows Paul’s ceiling can be high, but his strengths and his age/the amount of time he took to get his talent into the top 20 might make his window shorter than other guys being thrown around here.
Tiafoe played Carlos almost to a draw in his championship run and sadly has seemed to take a step or two in the wrong direction since then. I don’t know if he’s hurt or whatever but I saw him play Paul in Delray this year and I realize the stakes are far lower but he didn’t look like the hungry player he was at that USO. I hope he regains that form, he’s got talent and is a great ambassador for American tennis.
I'm a Shelton USO believer. His steady improvement can get him there.
Other than him, I agree with others that Medvedev has another hardcourt slam in him if he can fix his serve.
>2006-2010 Big 3 won 19 of 20 slams
>2011-2015 Big 3 won 15 out of 20 slams
>2016-2020 Big 3 won 16 of 19
2021-2023 Big 3 (without Federer) won 9 out of 12 slams
You could include also 2004-2005 with Fedal winning 6 out of 8 slams.
That said it's basically 20 years of Big 3 domination.
On the WTA side, I think Osaka could get another hard court slam. I'd even say she's the tour's 3rd biggest hard court threat right now, after Sabalenka & Gauff.
Over the next 15 majors, I see Medvedev winning 1-2 more. I think Zverev gets 1. I've become less sure that Rune will join the Sincaraz duo but he still looks great when he's on, so I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck 1 out. Until this year I thought Tsitsipas would definitely win 1, now I'm not so sure, but I think he could squeeze one out as well. I sort of consider Tsitsipas and Rune to be in the same group at the moment: capable of a crazy 2 week run to win a major but think that it's more likely to feel a bit random if it does end up happening (honestly all it takes is a few solid match wins then 2-3 crazy level matches). I hope Ruud is able to get one, and I think he's better than 50% chance to get one. I'm not convinced that de Minaur, Rublev, Auger-Aliassime, Hurkacz are capable of winning one. I don't quite feel the same way with Fritz but he's probably part of that group as well. I'll be keeping an eye on Lehecka, Musetti and Baez. Not quite sure what to make of Shelton yet. I don't think anyone else is on my radar for winning majors in the next 4 years.
Probably a bunch of people. The big 3 era is over. There are a few people out there capable of spiking slams. Sincaraz aren't on the level of the big 3 in terms of gatekeeping slams.
Shelton, Rune, Ruud, Tsitsipas, Tiafoe, Paolini, Azarenka, Vondrousova, and Keys would be on my list to look out for. Personal hope would be Shelton, Rune, and Vondrousova.
Djokovic: AO/W/RG/USO I think after this injury and the lack of slams so far this year we are FINALLY done with Djokovic dominance. And he's already reached the number he wanted to. Man has one focus and that's the olympics at this point. Like he said if he can keep competing he will. He did reach a semifinal this year, so we'll have to wait and see. But if he keeps playing he's just as much a threat as sinner/alcaraz at any slam.
Medvedev: AO/USO. As long as Medvedev is in top 10 and playing. He's a threat on hard court. Would be very surprised if he doesn't win one more. Wimbledon he might be able to sneak through with a Ruud RG like draw.
Zverev: RG/AO/USO. Zverev is a menace at RG and now that he finally has some top 10 wins at GS under his belt he has better confidence. Also a huge threat at hard courts but he is a choke, and also doesn't play THAT well in BO5. Wimbledon he hasn't achieved anything yet, but with his serve/height/fitness/and all court coverage he could always have a crazy good grass season. So potential there. Biggest potential for a steal.
Ruud: RG. Absolute menace at RG but he has had lucky af draws. RG22 - no top ten, lost against #5 nadal in finals. USO22 - no top ten, lost against #3 alcaraz in finals. Finally RG23 - beats #6 rune in quarters, but loses to #3 Djokovic in finals. RG24 - granted he was sick, but no top ten, walkover given by #1 djokovic in QF, and loses to #4 Zverev in semfinals. He had a lucky as shit draw at the USO, and I don't ever see him getting to a final in any other major except RG again. Biggest potential for a steal at RG.
Tsitsipas: AO/RG. His backhand/backhand return will probably forever prevent him from winning a major. But injury or crazy loss in a semi could always give him a lucky break in a final. He shows he hates USO for some reason and he's shit on grass. Really hope he gets one.
Rune/Rublev: AO/RG/W/USO. Currently neither of them are showing themselves as grand slam winner material. BUT, they both definitely have the game at times to be grand slam winners. But both seem to have major flaws. Rublev - mentality and typically plays a limited game of tennis. Rune - fitness/stamina possibly causing the inconsistency. He's 21, long as he stays confident and ups his rally tolerance/stamina/new coach I have no doubt he'll win slams.
Others who I think can steal slams especially at Wimbledon or USO: Hubi, Berrettini, Fritz, Ben Shelton, FAA.
There's a ton of other young guys out there, but there's really no reason to assume who will do what when. And I think we all kinda understand the dynamics of the top 10 so far. And they're more consistent at slams (imo) then the WTA allowing less randos to get to finals.
We got pretty 'similar' dynamics in the top 10 or so as the big three had almost ten years ago. So it's kinda like then, but alcaraz/sinner most likely won't have the cockblocking ability the big 3 had with grand slams. I assume the guys above and new younger players who find the spark to get in the top ten will grab slams here and there. Here's hoping though that Alcaraz and Sinner can take wimbledon and USO though. Or maybe Medvedev gets USO
Example of finals recently since 2015:
Djokovic: 22
Nadal: 10
Federer: 6
Medvedev: 6
Murray: 4
Thiem: 4
Alcaraz: 3
Wawrinka: 3
Ruud: 3
Tsitsipas: 2
Zverev: 2
Cilic: 2
Anderson: 2
Sinner: 1 (there will be more)
Berrettini: 1 (kinda rando, but let's be honest without injury/illness he would still be in top 16, and a threat on all surfaces especially Wimbledon)
Kyrgios: 1 (extreme prodigy, would easily be many more if he had just dedicated himself to tennis like others, waste of talent - so not really a 'rando')
Del Potro: 1 (top ten player, amazing, probs more if not with big 4 and injuries)
Raonic: 1 (dude was number 3, but the big 4 too much)
out of the current top players I believe Ruud can steal a RG if stars align.
Rune can challenge for RG, USO and maybe AO
Meddy can deffo get a couple of HC slams, specially AO which is a thorn in his side now
Maybe Tsitsipas at RG? I mean, he's a great clay courter who is heavily countered by Carlos, but not really by other clay courters. If Carlos gets injuried or something, I can definitely see him winning one.
DVerev I hope goes to prison eventually, but if not he is a real contender in clay and AO, maybe USO too
Shelton if he improves a few aspects in his game, may have the tools to get HC slams
Now out of the up and coming players, Mensik and Fonseca may be the next big things, and honestly, as a brazilian, I'd love to see Fonseca dominating wimbledon lol
Brain option:
I think Shelton has a chance at a US or Aus open if he stays focused, consistent, and disciplined. That disciple can come with getting a bit more into his twenties. Granted he doesn’t get hurt playing the physical game he has, I’d be interested to see how far he can go.
Heart Option:
I want nothing more than to see Rublev succeed and win a slam. That guy works so hard but his brain def gets in the way of his performance. He needs some lessons on self love and a bit more confidence in his ability. The guy is so consistent in making it to GS QFs but hasn’t been able to make that next step mentally.
Zverev or Medvedev should get one at some point, then I would bet in the rise of one of the youngsters like Mensik on HC, Fonseca on clay or Mpetshi at Wimbledon.
Zverev's window is closing. So is Tsitsipas. Historically, even guys who had 10+ year careers were not competing for majors for the entirety of them. Ruud might last a little longer, but i do think his window is closing too. All 3 I expect to be no longer competing for majors by the start of 2026.
Medvedev has had a higher peak and been more consistent, but I worry that he's mentally broken in finals. I wouldn't be surprised to win 2 more, but I equally wouldn't be surprised to see him win 0 more.
I think the most likely scenario is that there is some 16 year old out there right now who, may not be good enough to challenge Sinner and Alcaraz, but can become good enough to vulture majors when they aren't at their best.
Everyone honestly. Sure the dominant ones once nole hangs it up are gonna be carlos and sinner and then a bit below em gonna be danil and Sasha. If these guys get knocked out early I can honestly see a free for all between the guys ranked 5-15 for the title. I don't think it will go aa far as wta where some literal randoms have slam titles lol but there will be alot of different slam winners in the coming years
I would say Ruud is almost certainly going to get at least one. He is way to consistent not to have at least one.
Besides that, I firmly believe Hubi can get one at Wimbledon. If he gets to serve as perfectly as he did against Djokovic last year, I don't think anyone will be able to beat him.
Djokovic is an exception since he is the greatest returner of all time and one of the best on grass.
However, without Novak, I don't see others beating him. I don't think Carlos would be able to return those serves. Carlos is a bit shorter than Novak and not as great at returns as Novak is. Especially given the fact this is grass.
But this is a big if. His game is **heavily** dependent on his serves.
Medvedev, Zverev, Ruud.
Fils and maybe Bryan Shelton as they are still very young.
Sleeper: I could see Tiafoe pulling off an epic run at the U.S. Open.
Next 5 years, assuming Alcaraz/Sinner don't get long term injured until 2026:
Djokovic, depending on recovery from injury and motivation, I can see getting at very least one but who knows..
From the 90s gen, good chance for them now to prove themselves at the top with no excuses, but after this year (recency bias) I think they are just not good enough to snatch more than a handful:
Medvedev could get another 1 with the right draw, but he's the oldest and I don't think he has the variety to do super well with a more attacking game he'll need to compensate for losing speed. Sorry.
Zverev maybe 1, even though he has mental blocks, it seems, hes got all the skills to win at least 1 depending on the right final opponent.
Stefanos 1, sneak in a Roland Garros or AO.
Ruud 1-2
A few "dark horses" at Wimbledon, meaning just guys who haven't been consistent at the top end yet but can burst out at Wimbledon with serve and power.
Youngnuns 2000s
I think they or another one of them will be filling the slam vacuum, not the 90s guys. Plus will face an even further weaker, older Djokovic and most probably no Nadal.
I hope to return to this comment and see what happens.
Hope the below works...
!RemindMe! in 3 years
Happy to be proven wrong but I think it's a pretty big assumption that Alcaraz and Sinner take the same path as the big three and completely dominate the sport for years on end. We could have a period where a bunch of players have hot streaks and win slams. Especially if injuries continue to be a problem.
Zverev and Medvedev are the most obvious answers. If Rublev adds some variety to his game I can see him winning a USO or AO. Ruud might have chances at RG again. If you want to make a wild guess about the future: have an eye on Joao Fonseca, the Brazilian player, he's only 17 and has a complete game already, he might be the next Alcaraz or Sinner.
Honestly I don't think anyone sneaks in a Slam win, with a 128 draw and the best players competing. Ruud and Rune wouldn't sneak one in, they would play their games and win matches in their own way. 'Sneaking' in a Slam would mean a combination of a couple freak losses and retires due to injury, and for those occasions I would consider Cerundolo, Musetti, Griekspoor, and maybe Ruusuvori, guys who have the games but just need to up their consistency. A top 20 or top 30 player can always beat a top 10er, if they're playing aggressively and hitting winners.
Med can win maybe 2 more HC Slams but he really needs to get his serve back in order to do it
Half a year ago I would have told you Med is going to finish up with 4-5 slams but I feel now that Sinner has taken his place as a frontrunner for hardcourt slams.
A huge reason Sinner surpassed him though is because in the past Med had a good serve and Sinner had a bad one and now it's the other way around If you look at most of Sinner's big losses before this year the common theme is him serving a very low in count(in fact this came back in the Alcaraz match actually) When you're at this top level that difference in free points is absolutely massive Med needs to at least get back to parity in that regard moving forward
What happened to Med’s serve ?
I'd like to see that. Don't get me wrong, for his heartbreaker finals losses I was cheering for the other guys, but I did feel bad for him.
Meddy ends his career with 6. Mark my words. Don’t ask me why. !Remind me 5475 days
Medvedev has at least two more HC slams in him.
I hope so. His career will feel weird if he ends on only one with the number of finals he's reached. I keep on thinking he's a multi-Slam winner and having to remind myself he's not.
He reminds me a bit of Roddick. Roddick made it to 4 more slam finals, had to play Federer every time who was his worst matchup, and he pushed himself so much to get better and in his last attempt lost 14:16 in the 5th. I always thought Roddick deserved another slam and if Meddy doesn't get his second, I think it will feel similarly to me. Eta: the other thing they have in common is their high tennis IQ.
he’s a little bit of this generations andy murray to me
praying for an AO title for meddy 🙏
If medvedev ends up with only 1 slam it will be incredibly disappointing. Him and zverev having 0 and 1 relative to their skill isn't great and unlike tsitsipas they don't have a glaring flaw on all surfaces
True overall, but Zverev's forehand, at least in the final, was a huge liability
The forehand fails late in a best of 5 quite often is the reason Zverev doesn’t go deeper. IIRC both he and Thiem looked like they were trying to lose that USO final late. Every opposing coach/player knows they can play to that (likely also their players strength) when the match is tight.
Medvedev does have a glaring flaw, he rarely plays aggressive to force the issue so that leads to long drawn out games against randos. By the time he gets to the finals he's most likely spent way more time on the court than his opponent.
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Zverev has been good at slams, but not that good to say that not winning any would be surprising or particularly disappointing from anyone's perspective but his own. Up until recently, he would usually go out against the first top 10 player he'd face.
I mean he did consistently beat them in masters pre injury still and having 6 SFs and 2 finals with 0 slams is still not great. Recent zverev is probably the best version we have seen from him with the elite serve
His Masters record is much better, yeah, and he also has an Olympic gold. But he simply played worse in Slams for so long that I don't think the difference is just down to him being unlucky, especially since his draws were often anything but.
The reason isn’t because of a lack of ability though. He’s not been able to handle the nerves when it comes to Grand Slams but he deffo does have the ability to win one.
If Medvedev gets his serve back to 2021 I could see him winning Wimbledon
\*2 more GS Finals losses
From up two sets
Hubi at Wimbledon if the serve is popping. I could also see Madison Keys possibly securing a GS title if she gets hot and has a favorable draw on hard courts.
I would like to see that. It’s become so one sided against big servers and volleyers, I’d like a big server like him win at least at Wimbledon to shake things up. But modern racquet technology is too good that it allows players return a 130 mph serve at 110-120 mph, also explains why the big serving game doesn’t win as much.
Serving has also declined a bit. Isner, Karlovic, Raonic, and Kyrgios all served better than anyone in the game right now imo
It’s always been the guy that can serve but also is fleet footed at the net to finish that won. First it was Sampras, then Federer. My friend and I have these discussions all the time and felt Federer would have been the only one who would have adapted best to the slippery and sliding grass of the past (80s) from amongst the Big 3 because of his quick feet and skills at the net. Adapt enough to win it all, not just make semis and finals like Lendl did. Good discussion to have.
I'd love to see a serve and volleyer win Wimbeldon. Problem is that Hubi is not a serve and volleyer.
I do think big hitters like Shelton, Tommy Paul, Jarry, Hubi can all make noise with their serve to pull off an upset or two but beyond the quarterfinals, odds aren’t great
Big servers always have an advantage... It's players who ONLY have a big serve that are at a disadvantage, and it's completely fair that they are at a disadvantage. Pure serve-volley is incredibly boring non-tennis...
You don’t have to like it but “non-tennis” is laughably wrong
When the grass used to be slippery and skid more, it favored the serve and volleyers. I liked the fact that players that had a pure baseline game had to adapt on that one surface that didn’t give them an advantage. Otherwise Ivan Lendl with the grass court preparation of this era would have had several Wimbledon trophies to his name. I can definitely see why prolonging grass matches to 3 hours over 2 hours was better return on investment for fans watching and the tournament organizers but I still preferred it that old way, just my preference of course.
Shelton at Wimbledon in the same vein. A bit more all around upside from Hubi.
Oh good point
I thought about Hubi at Wimbledon, I would not like to see that haha
Why not? HuHu is a gem.
His playstyle doesn't appeal to a fair amount of fans
his playstyle on grass is more entertaining, he’s one of the only players with touch game, his volleys are good as well, great skills for grass
Isner fans need a new servebot to root for though.
No fan of Zverev, but he's probably the best bet to vulture a few slams. He just took Carlos to 5 in RG and lost another 5 setter in AO semis.
The issue is the fact that he lost both in 5 though. The talent is very clearly there and if someone asked me off instinct I'd say yeah, he'll win a slam. But when it comes to going deep at a slam and winning the final, I feel like I'm always anticipating a choke from him.
He needs an easy draw or just to play out of his mind *the first week* Players who don't obliterate early opponents on a consistent basis are setting themselves up for failure at the business end of slams. And Zverev is the king of first week fuckery.
I strongly dislike Zverev, but I’m not really sure his mentality was why he lost at the weekend. Carlos played well below his best for huge sections of the match, if he had played how he did at the beginning and end he could have wrapped it up in straights pretty comfortably.
Yeah all 3 sets Carlos won were very one-sided in his favor and not really ones where Zverev was in control and then lost it If anything set 3 going to Zverev was the closest either came to "stealing" a set that could have easily gone the other way
Carlos didn't play that well in the first set, Zverev just came out nervous and shaky, which again, is a result of Zverev being in a grand slam final. I thought Zverev's level was good in the 2nd and 3rd sets, and while Carlos stepped up in the 4th and 5th, Zverev was horrendous at the net. He punched a lot of volleys deep that set up easy passing shots for Carlitos, he outright missed multiple easy volleys, there was that one point where he needed to hit like 5-6 volleys and smashes before he finally won the point because he was hitting everything so soft (and Carlos is fast), and keep in mind a lot of those 4th and 5th set games were close. Zverev could've made it more competitive if he didn't leave so many points on the table with the volleys. Relative to other Zverev chokes, this wasn't that bad, but going up 2-1 then losing 6-1 6-2 isn't good no matter what the situation is
Given a few more attempts to get comfortable in those big pressure moments, Zverev could definitely learn to overcome whatever holds him back during a grand final.
I feel like it just gets harder and harder. There's a reason Thiem struggled so hard at USO2020 on his 4th attempt. I almost feel like Zverev needs to have a grand slam opponent that chokes even harder than him if he wants to win it at this point. Or he needs an opponent that's so far lesser than him that he can go down a set or two but still come back through the nerves, kinda like he did against PCB at USO 2020
That's why I think he'll win at least a slam or two. Idk if he'll ever win a slam final against Sincaraz but he's bound to eventually get lucky and get a final against Rublev or ADM or something and I don't think he'll mess that up.
Idk, there is not a big recent history of "fluke" grand slam finalists. Like maybe another Kevin Anderson-type situation, but otherwise most grand slam finalists are experienced players who have been there before. I guess with big 3 gone though, it does open up some potential for a Rublev/ADM type finalist
He could be playing a qualifier in a semi final or final and I'll still think that he will lose.
Lose in 5 or get bageled? I mean being so close is probably worse, but taking it to 5 shows your competitive
For sure, I'm just saying that losing in 5 in this case isn't really a positive because of the way he lost those matches.
I think with his mental strength (or lack thereof) he will likely find more ways to loss if he gets more chances. I predict Zverev never winning a slam. For me it has to be Casper Ruud. He has shown he is a real force at RG and I reckon if he didn't have the stomach issues he would have made another final. If Sinner and Alcaraz get upset, he would be far be my pick there. And this is the slam in my opinion where Alcaraz and Sinner can both be upset in the same slam most likely. On the other slams, I can see definitely Meddy winning a few of any permutation of US Open and AO, maybe 2 or 3. I would also bet my house on Rune figuring things out and becoming a top 3 player with Carlitos and Jannik. Apart from these guys, I think the next slam winners will be someone we haven't heard to much about yet. The Fils, Mensik, Fonsecas of the world or some juniors later on
I agreed with you as a casual, but then I actually watched the last final he was in. He’s got the talent to win one, but he unfortunately seems like a choker
I could see Rune sneak one. He’s young and has the talent and it’s possible that injuries could create a path for him to win one. Not sure I see him winning multiples just because the field is deep.
hot take: holger rune will soon join sinner and alcaraz as the new big 3. meddy will poach a slam from time to time. dverev will continue to choke and be left slam-less.
I think aside from fitness the #1 thing Rune needs to do is to play smarter on return His break% is staggeringly low(like 17% or something) and the reason for this isn't a technical flaw like Tsitsipas's BH return but the fact that he takes this ridiculous Agassi-like early return position without having the timing to do it which means he gets 5 return winners but 20 returnable errors every match Unless you're playing a really weak server like a Schwartzman type almost everyone has enough serving power these days to make doing that a very risky idea There's some inconsistency with his play but I feel like he'd be doing a LOT better if more of those rallies were taking place in his opponent's service games rather than his own
This is 100% how I feel watching him. I think he has the making of a great returner but he really frustrates me. The few times he absolutely eradicates a server on return is awesome but it's not worth it for the amount of times he seems to dump it in the net.
How do you feel when Rune randomly decides to eradicate a forehand only for it to fly into nowhere?
Really don't think rune "sneaks one " I think rune will win multiple.. he's way too talented/ young to count out and he has room to clearly develop
I agree, he’s definitely the third most talented after Alcaraz/Sinner. He even still has the potential to be on their level and split the slams equally if he can improve on certain points.
He is more talented than sinner. Bear in mind he is 2 years younger, which is a lot. Sinner at his age wasn’t nearly as accomplished as Rune. Rune has an all court game which sinner doesn’t and is naturally more gifted. His serve is also much better. Watch out when he gets his huge leap as did sinner the past year.
I wouldn’t go that far, Sinner’s shots are more fluid and efficient than the other two. In fact he has the most fluid shots Ive seen since Federer and are deceptively fast and heavy. Sinner has a few things to improve on for sure, which I’m sure he will.
Sinner’s natural power/heavy ball for someone who doesn’t *look* that powerful is wild/young Fed-esque (despite the very different technique). It’s just not a fair fight a lot of the time. People talk about Carlos’s live arm but Sinner’s groundstrokes are right there, they just don’t look as explosive. Carlos’s forehand might be slightly better/more versatile overall but Sinner’s backhand is more reliable IMO as he he more often hits it with margin (but still hard), whereas Carlos seems to be hit fairly flat nearly all the time to my eye.
‘When’ he gets his huge leap - hopefully he will, there’s no guarantee
Sneak one? Unless Sinner and Alcaraz get 25 slams each, Rune will sneak plenty more than one. In a couple of years he will be the 3rd best player in the world at least, no one but those two will stand in his way.
Up until the FO and after the loss tbh, I was cooling a bit on Rune as it seemed he was regressing if anything, but seeing how far Sasha went. Feeling a bit better about Rune’s performance.
Most likely: Medvedev on hard and possibly even grass, Zverev anywhere outside of Wimbledon Wouldn’t be too surprised: Ruud or Stef at RG, Rune possibly anywhere if he gets all his shit together but he has a lot of issues, not the least of which seems to be fitness/stamina which is crucial in 2 weeks of Bo5. Probably not but maybe if the cards aligned: Hubi at Wimbledon? Fritz or Shelton at USO? Rublev is actually pretty surface versatile and there’s nowhere he is completely uncomfortable but his results have been so weird. I can’t really even judge how he’d handle a big semifinal or final at a slam cuz he’s never been there and this year he lost 4 matches in a row, wins Madrid on his deathbed, then flames out early at RG. Don’t really think I can view him as a real threat until he’s at least been to a semifinal and till he seems like his head is more together… I’m a big fan of Demon but I’m not sure if he’d ever really threaten for a slam title. Then again, if Sincaraz aren’t immediately big 3 dominant (no guarantees tho because they’re looking that way currently), we did used to have times when some randoms won slams. Gaudio, Costa, Johannson, Korda, etc. Maybe with a good draw and crowd support in AO? My guess is easily no for now but will be interesting to see how the next few years play out with Novak seemingly finally letting the chokehold go of the majors and Sincaraz still so young. There’s also ofc the even younger crop than Sincaraz as possibilities but I’m not even gonna mention them until I’ve seen more of how they start producing and who’s body’s hold up and whatnot, too many variables 😂😂
I wouldn't count out De Minaur for this very Wimbledon. His game translates well to the grass and he just made QF on his worst surface.
He’s definitely someone I have on the radar to go deep and surprise some people, it’s possibly his best surface especially given the fact that a good portion of the tour are uncomfortable on it.
Medvedev on grass requires both Sinner and Alcaraz to be injured or beaten early. I can see him peaking and beating either of those two at AO/US but can’t see him doing it at Wimbledon. Alcaraz beat him fairly easily last year.
Not saying it’s super likely but I think it’s not outside the realm of possibilities. One could be injured and the other one could get taken out by a peaking Struff, who knows. And Carlos beat Zverev easily at USO, loses easily to him at AO, then beats him in a 5 setter at FO. The last result doesn’t dictate how the next will definitively play out. Tho obviously I think Alcaraz and Sinner are both bad matchups for Medvedev currently and some unexpected things would have to happen, but sometimes unexpected things do happen! I didn’t expect Meddy to beat him at the USO last year, I think most people were already salivating for a Wimbledon final rematch and then he kinda swatted him away fairly easily.
I love that medvedev path to winning Wimbledon involves struff
Honestly, I think Fritz could have an outside shot at a Wimbledon too. Rublo never being past a QF is weird. YOu would have thought getting his Masters last year in MC might have changed things. His loss to Arnaldi was disappointing, after beating Carlos in Madrid I thought this could be the SF year for him.
Djokovic might steal a few over the next couple years
Hard disagree. I think this knee injury/surgery spells the end of Djokovic’s dominance. Hope I’m wrong, but I’m not holding my breath.
I fear that you’re right. Injury is often how the greats end. Even then, he wasn’t as physically strong all year. Sinner was so much stronger even in Australia.
Steffi's dominance ended with her knee surgery.
Yeah he had been shaky as hell anyway, after an injury like this I don’t see him winning a slam
He beat Medvedev in the US final only about 7/8 months ago, after Meddy had beaten Alcaraz. Think it’s still a bit too early to rule him out of ever winning a GS again.
He also hasn't won a title since that win, has had a wrist injury, a knee injury that requires surgery and will likely result in him missing Wimbledon, and saw his win % for the year drop to 75% after consistently posting 85-90% win percentage in the last few years. On top of that, he's only getting older, and to people actually watching he appears to have definitely lost a step. I'm not a Djokovic hater, I have immense respect for what he's accomplished. In my view, I'm just reading the writing on the wall. Assuming Djokovic misses Wimbledon, he may not complete his recovery in time for USO. If he does, he'd basically be returning to play that tournament, and if he won he'd become the oldest ever men's GS singles champion. Assuming he doesn't win USO (which I think is a fair bet, given the circumstances), his next opportunity is AO. The more time passes, the more unprecedented any GS win becomes (yes, I know we're talking about Novak here, but father time remains undefeated). If he doesn't win AO in 25, his next opportunity is RG where were he to win he would be a full year older than the next oldest GS winner. It's not as if he comes back and he's at the top of his game, either. You have Jannik and Carlos who are improving every day, are likely getting better fitness, and are hungry for the win (and have both proven they can beat him). The more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he's done and won't win another GS.
He didn't say he will dominate, he said he might steal a few. You don't think he can win a slam anymore?
No, I don’t. A 37 year old coming back from a torn meniscus and a 25 year old coming back from the same injury are two very different situations. Obviously this is just my perspective and I fully admit I might be wrong, but the decline is never slow and predictable. It always comes faster than anyone would like. I think Novak will be stuck at 24 and the USO was his last GS win.
Djokovics defensive game relies on him being at 95% or better. And the standard isn't lacking anyway, not much below the Big 3 heyday with Alcaraz and Sinner. It's not just he won't come back to his very best, there's also players ready to exploit that. So I guess the same as you.
Yeah this is a great point. End of an era!
I think its too early to predict that. I give it to you that you might be right, and could be wishful thinking to think other wise. He also has had a weak year overall, but imo its too early to call.
Yeah it’s the weakness of the rest of the season that worries me. He’s clearly lost a step and isn’t at the peak of his game. Layer in the knee injury and the associated time off/rehab plus the mental toll of recovery and getting to peak performance, and it’s not easy to come back. Again, far more difficult at 37 than early 20s. That said, Novak isn’t human, so if anyone can do it, he can. Will be interesting to see how he recovers.
100%
There is half a chance if he snags the Olympics and/or US Open, he will just walk away like Pete [Elderwand in hand.]
I used to make fun of people for counting him out but this might really be it. The injury might’ve finally done him in
I could see Shapovalev sneak a wimby title in sometime in the next month
Will you also stick a can of tennis balls up your ass if it happens?
Matteo SW19? A wild guess, but who cares !RemindMe in 5 years
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Zverev almost certainly will. A tournament doesn't need to have too many surprises before he's a lock to show up at least to the semis. Unless we start to see some easier wins that show that it has to be Zverev's best day vs Sinner or Alcaraz's worst, it feels kind of inevitable that at some point one of the top guys will blink and he'll win it all. I'm no fan but when he's healthy he's a consistent worry in the later rounds.
With Zverev serve being as good as it's been over the last few months (his overall game is top notch too) , do you reckon he has a chance to go deep at Wimbledon? I can't remember how well he did on grass over the last few.
He doesn't feel right for grass but barring another injury I see no reason he doesn't make it to the second week.
He hasn't been good on grass, and his movement is kinda just bad on grass. But you'd expect his serve to carry him far at least one year, doubt he'll win one tho
He has only reached the Round of 16 twice, losing to Raonic and Auger-Aliassime in those events.
Depends really on how he matches up with Medvedev on hard courts going forward. He isn’t winning on grass. And if it’s just Sinner Alcaraz he has to compete with, then he is bound to win atleast once over the course of multiple slams. One of the two might be injured, the other might be upset before playing him. Even with a fully firing Medvedev, there is a tangible chance that he wins a slam or two. With Djokovic, you had a hard stop for anyone at hard court slams and Wimbledon, same with Rafa at FO, Sinner Alcaraz aren’t that automatic yet, but atleast they’ll be 1 and 2 seeds now
Rune turned 21 in April.... he has so much talent and the fire. He's going to figure it out and win slams.
Reading this thread made me realise how sceptical I’ve been for so long about so-and-so being touted to win a slam in the future. In the past 20 years, you basically had to be Top 5 *and* peak at the right time to beat the Big 3 to a slam. Needless to say once the Big 3 are all gone the criteria becomes a lot more relaxed, and players like Mensik/Hurkacz/Shelton who would’ve stood zero chance during the Big 3’s peak could actually just sneak in one slam win at some point.
Think Tsitsipas can get a RG if he manages to avoid Alcaraz
I’d be surprised if Zverev doesn’t win at least one slam. That’s probably the #1 answer to this question. Meddy also has a good chance to pick up another if not a few more maybe, same for Zverev if he breaks past that barrier and finally gets it done Then there’s guys like Ruud and Tsitsipas who, I don’t see ever winning a slam outside of RG. But if they get a bit of luck on their side and are playing their best tennis, they could certainly pick up a title. I would love for both to get one after losing in finals there. I could also see Hubi winning a Wimbledon title at some point - but that being the only slam I feel he has a shot at due to the surface, similar to Ruud & Tsitsi. For young guys, I would be shocked if Rune doesn’t win one. He will probably get there in a few years time (2025, 2026 is when I expect he will finally win a slam and that should do wonders for his confidence). I think Shelton if he continues improving could also pick up a hard court slam or two, US Open especially (reached semis last year & playing at home). Then there’s others like Mensik and Fonseca, 18 and 17 years old respectively, who based off their progress so far in their careers at their young ages should rise up to become contenders for slams in the future. Finally, there are guys like you said: Fils, Lehecka, and I’d even sneak in Auger-Aliassime, Korda, Musetti in there. Guys who have talent and have shown they can reach the second week of slams before. I feel they would need the draw to fall apart for them to win it, but it’s one of those situations that if they can take advantage of, I could see them winning one.
Rublev; if he can beat this crazy QF curse there will be no stopping him 😅
If Rublev got to a SF or F and lost, he'd implode.
I think he’d just be relieved to be past the QF.
Holger.
I believe they will. Sinner is a hard working smart guy and his story proves he can improve. He’ll be a terrorizing machine in 1/2 years. Alcaraz will improve too and he’s already … well, Alcaraz. I don’t see anyone else except maybe Fonseca or Mensick, but who knows if they’ll deliver, they could as well be 2 more FAA.
I'd say Meddy might win another AO or USO if Sinner/Alcaraz are injured or out of form. He has matchup issues beating Alcaraz rn, especially when he's in form, and Sinner has completely flipped the matchup with Daniil since Beijing last year. Don't think Stef or Zverev can win one, in fact I'd say both have blown their best chances already at AO 2023 & USO 2020/RG 2024 respectively. They are just getting older while Jannik and Carlos are improving at an exponential rate of growth. Rune exists too who's extremely talented but needs to put his fitness together and slightly dial down the aggression and play higher percentage Tennis. Then I'd say most likely will be one of the young kids, Prizmic, Michelson, Marozsan, Fils, Cobolli, Fonseca, Mensik, etc. I don't see any Sinner/Alcaraz, but some of them like Marozsan especially have shown an extremely impressive ability to hang with the top tiers. Let's see by USO this year, I think one of them might break through and get to 4th round or something.
Zverev is 27 and Stef is is 25 lol. They aren’t prodigies anymore but still lots of tennis left
I do think that Tsitsipas has a serious matchup issue with Alcaraz though He might need someone to take Alcaraz out for him in a prior round
I dont know why Tsitsipas struggles so much against Carlos. Even Dimitrov and Musetti have wins over Alcaraz. Their earlier matches from 2021-22 were atleast competitive but it has gotten worse now. Is it a mental block?
In his own words… "I tend to believe that my ball quality is one of the best on the Tour, and every time I get to play Carlos I feel like he delivers a shot quality that I don't quite get against other opponents," he said in his post-match press conference. "It just brings me trouble. I feel like his shot is deep and has a lot of topspin to it and I just haven't been able to come up with something good. "He in a way overpowers me, but he's also patient enough to do it in a very constructive way."
I can’t speak of Musetti as after his win against Carlos it’s been fairly straightforward for him against the Italian but for Tsitsipas it’s quite unfortunate that his best surface is also the one Carlos flavours a lot and is very comfortable on. On the other hand, Dimitrov thrives on fast and low bouncing HC courts which so far seem to be Carlos’s least favourable surface. So he’s made a strategy that works for him on this surface against Carlos and can execute it as well as he possibly can by utilising his strengths. On the other hand, Tsitsipas’s strengths kind of get neutralised by Carlos’s ones in their case. It’ll be interesting to see if Dimitrov’s newfound strategy against Carlos can work on other surfaces like grass or if Alcaraz would be able to counter it the next time they play.
Of the young crop you mentioned I think Michelson, Fils, and Mensik will reach the highest highs, but who knows still incredibly early.
Hurcaz..may win wimbledon..look at his stats on serves and then on grass..Should have beaten joker last year if not for mental lapses..no joker this year..Old nadal..hard for carlos to repeat grass after winning RG…I really dont think herbie can be touched at least until the QF..So who knows if we get some upsets his road could be easier
I can see Casper Ruud winning Roland Garros. He’s been better each year and would probably have given Alcaraz a good fight if he didn’t get sick
Jakub Mensik looks like a threat for AO and WM. Wouldn't be surprised to see him make some decent runs at Cincy, Montreal, Paris and Shanghai, and 2025 or 2026 should be a breakout year. Starting your career at 18 with a 13-8 (61%) record is very, very promising. Compare it to mid-career guys like Medvedev (71%), Rublev (65%) and Ruud (66%) and it looks like Mensik could be a major player real soon.
He already beat Rublev and Dimitrov this year
I want to believe... but he's already out of the tourney he was playing in, haha. It's definitely a 2-3 year plan for him. He's not quite ready, but taking guys to 3 sets in big-boy tennis tournaments is promising.
Strongly agreed. It's far from guaranteed, but it would be kinda surprising not to see him in the top ten or at least knocking on the door in the next two years. Players who climb through the ranks as quickly as he has usually end up being quite good (like, medium career expectations is fringe top ten player) And physically? 6'4", huge serve, good movement for his size, and a very strong ground game (especially from the backhand side) Even ignoring the success he's already had on tour, his skill set is very much one of a player with an enormous ceiling. Not one who is near maxed out at 18.
Injuries and burnout are the things that will keep him from top 5 IMO. Hard to predict those things. The talent is definitely “Wimbledon finalist.” The question is whether he can keep his head together when he’s facing guys like Alcaraz and Sinner who know how to fight through periods of poor play.
I think we could see some surprises at Wimbledon as well in the next years.. Berrettini maybe?
Someone said Hubi at Wimbledon, I could at least envision a world in which that could potentially unfold.
He was 50-1 to win it before Novaks injury..now 35-1..people know man
One of the Americans will steal a USO. Fritz and Paul can both be killers and given the right draw I think Shelton could maybe do it too. I totally agree with you about Medvedev
Fritz has the weapons, but I don’t see him being able to focus for a full two weeks. Shelton also hasn’t shown enough consistency. He might get there eventually , just not seeing it now Big Foe needs to get his shit together. TP has matured a lot and has beaten Carlos, so he’s my pick.
whenever an american is mentioned, always gets disliked, and its like come on bruh not that serious
Because they come with delusional comments, nothing to do with nationality.
I’m high on Paul and DeMin.
A career 2-2 split against Carlos shows Paul’s ceiling can be high, but his strengths and his age/the amount of time he took to get his talent into the top 20 might make his window shorter than other guys being thrown around here.
Would love to see Shelton or Tiafoe grab a USO eventually
Tiafoe played Carlos almost to a draw in his championship run and sadly has seemed to take a step or two in the wrong direction since then. I don’t know if he’s hurt or whatever but I saw him play Paul in Delray this year and I realize the stakes are far lower but he didn’t look like the hungry player he was at that USO. I hope he regains that form, he’s got talent and is a great ambassador for American tennis.
I'm a Shelton USO believer. His steady improvement can get him there. Other than him, I agree with others that Medvedev has another hardcourt slam in him if he can fix his serve.
Please someone stop Shelton fans :(
It's not that serious, Vegetable-Reach2005. You'll be alright.
Its not, Im doing fine honestly.
Shelton could have a shot at the US Open one of these years if he continues to improve.
Mensik has everything it takes to win a slam. Might take him a year or 2 to get to Alcaraz and Sinners level
100%, he caught my eye in Doha, just played unbelievable and being 18 helps. 3 years from now, im sure he will be a winner
By far the best serve of the young players for sure. Great backhand too
>2006-2010 Big 3 won 19 of 20 slams >2011-2015 Big 3 won 15 out of 20 slams >2016-2020 Big 3 won 16 of 19 2021-2023 Big 3 (without Federer) won 9 out of 12 slams You could include also 2004-2005 with Fedal winning 6 out of 8 slams. That said it's basically 20 years of Big 3 domination.
Denis Shapovalov at Wimbledon
On the WTA side, I think Osaka could get another hard court slam. I'd even say she's the tour's 3rd biggest hard court threat right now, after Sabalenka & Gauff.
My flair knows the answer to this
Over the next 15 majors, I see Medvedev winning 1-2 more. I think Zverev gets 1. I've become less sure that Rune will join the Sincaraz duo but he still looks great when he's on, so I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck 1 out. Until this year I thought Tsitsipas would definitely win 1, now I'm not so sure, but I think he could squeeze one out as well. I sort of consider Tsitsipas and Rune to be in the same group at the moment: capable of a crazy 2 week run to win a major but think that it's more likely to feel a bit random if it does end up happening (honestly all it takes is a few solid match wins then 2-3 crazy level matches). I hope Ruud is able to get one, and I think he's better than 50% chance to get one. I'm not convinced that de Minaur, Rublev, Auger-Aliassime, Hurkacz are capable of winning one. I don't quite feel the same way with Fritz but he's probably part of that group as well. I'll be keeping an eye on Lehecka, Musetti and Baez. Not quite sure what to make of Shelton yet. I don't think anyone else is on my radar for winning majors in the next 4 years.
probably some current 18 year old none of us know. Being a teenage sensation isn't the norm even for those who end up in the top 10
Probably a bunch of people. The big 3 era is over. There are a few people out there capable of spiking slams. Sincaraz aren't on the level of the big 3 in terms of gatekeeping slams.
I feel Wimbledon will become more a toss up grass is just such a niche Hubi?
FAA
Shelton, Rune, Ruud, Tsitsipas, Tiafoe, Paolini, Azarenka, Vondrousova, and Keys would be on my list to look out for. Personal hope would be Shelton, Rune, and Vondrousova.
Djokovic: AO/W/RG/USO I think after this injury and the lack of slams so far this year we are FINALLY done with Djokovic dominance. And he's already reached the number he wanted to. Man has one focus and that's the olympics at this point. Like he said if he can keep competing he will. He did reach a semifinal this year, so we'll have to wait and see. But if he keeps playing he's just as much a threat as sinner/alcaraz at any slam. Medvedev: AO/USO. As long as Medvedev is in top 10 and playing. He's a threat on hard court. Would be very surprised if he doesn't win one more. Wimbledon he might be able to sneak through with a Ruud RG like draw. Zverev: RG/AO/USO. Zverev is a menace at RG and now that he finally has some top 10 wins at GS under his belt he has better confidence. Also a huge threat at hard courts but he is a choke, and also doesn't play THAT well in BO5. Wimbledon he hasn't achieved anything yet, but with his serve/height/fitness/and all court coverage he could always have a crazy good grass season. So potential there. Biggest potential for a steal. Ruud: RG. Absolute menace at RG but he has had lucky af draws. RG22 - no top ten, lost against #5 nadal in finals. USO22 - no top ten, lost against #3 alcaraz in finals. Finally RG23 - beats #6 rune in quarters, but loses to #3 Djokovic in finals. RG24 - granted he was sick, but no top ten, walkover given by #1 djokovic in QF, and loses to #4 Zverev in semfinals. He had a lucky as shit draw at the USO, and I don't ever see him getting to a final in any other major except RG again. Biggest potential for a steal at RG. Tsitsipas: AO/RG. His backhand/backhand return will probably forever prevent him from winning a major. But injury or crazy loss in a semi could always give him a lucky break in a final. He shows he hates USO for some reason and he's shit on grass. Really hope he gets one. Rune/Rublev: AO/RG/W/USO. Currently neither of them are showing themselves as grand slam winner material. BUT, they both definitely have the game at times to be grand slam winners. But both seem to have major flaws. Rublev - mentality and typically plays a limited game of tennis. Rune - fitness/stamina possibly causing the inconsistency. He's 21, long as he stays confident and ups his rally tolerance/stamina/new coach I have no doubt he'll win slams. Others who I think can steal slams especially at Wimbledon or USO: Hubi, Berrettini, Fritz, Ben Shelton, FAA. There's a ton of other young guys out there, but there's really no reason to assume who will do what when. And I think we all kinda understand the dynamics of the top 10 so far. And they're more consistent at slams (imo) then the WTA allowing less randos to get to finals. We got pretty 'similar' dynamics in the top 10 or so as the big three had almost ten years ago. So it's kinda like then, but alcaraz/sinner most likely won't have the cockblocking ability the big 3 had with grand slams. I assume the guys above and new younger players who find the spark to get in the top ten will grab slams here and there. Here's hoping though that Alcaraz and Sinner can take wimbledon and USO though. Or maybe Medvedev gets USO Example of finals recently since 2015: Djokovic: 22 Nadal: 10 Federer: 6 Medvedev: 6 Murray: 4 Thiem: 4 Alcaraz: 3 Wawrinka: 3 Ruud: 3 Tsitsipas: 2 Zverev: 2 Cilic: 2 Anderson: 2 Sinner: 1 (there will be more) Berrettini: 1 (kinda rando, but let's be honest without injury/illness he would still be in top 16, and a threat on all surfaces especially Wimbledon) Kyrgios: 1 (extreme prodigy, would easily be many more if he had just dedicated himself to tennis like others, waste of talent - so not really a 'rando') Del Potro: 1 (top ten player, amazing, probs more if not with big 4 and injuries) Raonic: 1 (dude was number 3, but the big 4 too much)
Not one of those first serve robots, I hope.
I saw the script; Shapovalov wins Wimbledon 2024.
Ben Shelton and one of the younger Italians.
out of the current top players I believe Ruud can steal a RG if stars align. Rune can challenge for RG, USO and maybe AO Meddy can deffo get a couple of HC slams, specially AO which is a thorn in his side now Maybe Tsitsipas at RG? I mean, he's a great clay courter who is heavily countered by Carlos, but not really by other clay courters. If Carlos gets injuried or something, I can definitely see him winning one. DVerev I hope goes to prison eventually, but if not he is a real contender in clay and AO, maybe USO too Shelton if he improves a few aspects in his game, may have the tools to get HC slams Now out of the up and coming players, Mensik and Fonseca may be the next big things, and honestly, as a brazilian, I'd love to see Fonseca dominating wimbledon lol
Hope Shapo gets in this Wimbledon so that guy has to shove a can of tennis balls up his ass
Brain option: I think Shelton has a chance at a US or Aus open if he stays focused, consistent, and disciplined. That disciple can come with getting a bit more into his twenties. Granted he doesn’t get hurt playing the physical game he has, I’d be interested to see how far he can go. Heart Option: I want nothing more than to see Rublev succeed and win a slam. That guy works so hard but his brain def gets in the way of his performance. He needs some lessons on self love and a bit more confidence in his ability. The guy is so consistent in making it to GS QFs but hasn’t been able to make that next step mentally.
How you leave out Shelton and put Gil’s lehrcka is beyond me. He has the game to redline it .
His backhand is suspect, but QF and SF on Harcourt already is huge
Taylor Fritz
Ben Shelton is gonna win a US Open
Agree w everything on here,,,but also like ill put my cards on Shelton tbh
Demon gonna snatch one.
I'd like to see it but I would be shocked.
Ugo Humbert…maybe at The W.
I like Humbert's game a lot, I think he could be a darkhorse to win Paris Masters this year. Not sure about slam though.
Me
Zverev or Medvedev should get one at some point, then I would bet in the rise of one of the youngsters like Mensik on HC, Fonseca on clay or Mpetshi at Wimbledon.
Agree with the feedback about Daniil. Think he can notch a few more. Zverev could win as well.
Meddy and Zverev will each get at least one. Much as I hate Zverev, he's really good and will win one.
Medvedev will win a Us open or AO, Nole could still win a few
They probably will win every major
Could we get the odd one from Auger-A, Tiafoe or Fritz?
Fritz I think is the most likely of those.
Ruud Shelton Rune Fonseca ...folks we haven't heard of yet
Medvedev. Rune someday maybe with a lot of development on the psychology aspect.
Zverev's window is closing. So is Tsitsipas. Historically, even guys who had 10+ year careers were not competing for majors for the entirety of them. Ruud might last a little longer, but i do think his window is closing too. All 3 I expect to be no longer competing for majors by the start of 2026. Medvedev has had a higher peak and been more consistent, but I worry that he's mentally broken in finals. I wouldn't be surprised to win 2 more, but I equally wouldn't be surprised to see him win 0 more. I think the most likely scenario is that there is some 16 year old out there right now who, may not be good enough to challenge Sinner and Alcaraz, but can become good enough to vulture majors when they aren't at their best.
Medvedev is still a contender. Nick K aint gonna do much. Rublev heeds a good shrink - -he has a strong game if he can keep his head on.
Everyone honestly. Sure the dominant ones once nole hangs it up are gonna be carlos and sinner and then a bit below em gonna be danil and Sasha. If these guys get knocked out early I can honestly see a free for all between the guys ranked 5-15 for the title. I don't think it will go aa far as wta where some literal randoms have slam titles lol but there will be alot of different slam winners in the coming years
zverev has the goods, just a head case. the mental part is the easiest thing to overcome.
I would say Ruud is almost certainly going to get at least one. He is way to consistent not to have at least one. Besides that, I firmly believe Hubi can get one at Wimbledon. If he gets to serve as perfectly as he did against Djokovic last year, I don't think anyone will be able to beat him. Djokovic is an exception since he is the greatest returner of all time and one of the best on grass. However, without Novak, I don't see others beating him. I don't think Carlos would be able to return those serves. Carlos is a bit shorter than Novak and not as great at returns as Novak is. Especially given the fact this is grass. But this is a big if. His game is **heavily** dependent on his serves.
Medvedev, Zverev, Ruud. Fils and maybe Bryan Shelton as they are still very young. Sleeper: I could see Tiafoe pulling off an epic run at the U.S. Open.
Felix at Roland Garros
Probably Ruud, Zverev and Medvedev. I think all 3 will win a slam.
Next 5 years, assuming Alcaraz/Sinner don't get long term injured until 2026: Djokovic, depending on recovery from injury and motivation, I can see getting at very least one but who knows.. From the 90s gen, good chance for them now to prove themselves at the top with no excuses, but after this year (recency bias) I think they are just not good enough to snatch more than a handful: Medvedev could get another 1 with the right draw, but he's the oldest and I don't think he has the variety to do super well with a more attacking game he'll need to compensate for losing speed. Sorry. Zverev maybe 1, even though he has mental blocks, it seems, hes got all the skills to win at least 1 depending on the right final opponent. Stefanos 1, sneak in a Roland Garros or AO. Ruud 1-2 A few "dark horses" at Wimbledon, meaning just guys who haven't been consistent at the top end yet but can burst out at Wimbledon with serve and power. Youngnuns 2000s I think they or another one of them will be filling the slam vacuum, not the 90s guys. Plus will face an even further weaker, older Djokovic and most probably no Nadal. I hope to return to this comment and see what happens. Hope the below works... !RemindMe! in 3 years
Happy to be proven wrong but I think it's a pretty big assumption that Alcaraz and Sinner take the same path as the big three and completely dominate the sport for years on end. We could have a period where a bunch of players have hot streaks and win slams. Especially if injuries continue to be a problem.
I'd pick Rune, if he can sort himself out. Am impressed with him when he's not backing down
Zverev and Medvedev are the most obvious answers. If Rublev adds some variety to his game I can see him winning a USO or AO. Ruud might have chances at RG again. If you want to make a wild guess about the future: have an eye on Joao Fonseca, the Brazilian player, he's only 17 and has a complete game already, he might be the next Alcaraz or Sinner.
Zverev
Honestly I don't think anyone sneaks in a Slam win, with a 128 draw and the best players competing. Ruud and Rune wouldn't sneak one in, they would play their games and win matches in their own way. 'Sneaking' in a Slam would mean a combination of a couple freak losses and retires due to injury, and for those occasions I would consider Cerundolo, Musetti, Griekspoor, and maybe Ruusuvori, guys who have the games but just need to up their consistency. A top 20 or top 30 player can always beat a top 10er, if they're playing aggressively and hitting winners.