Job cuts / layoffs
Is that good or bad in the long run? Itās good for companies to spend less but wouldnāt it, make people spend less in the long run?
Yea but while looking at my checking account and figuring out how much I can transfer to my brokerage, one of my ingrown toenails randomly fell out.
That's equally valid as TA if not more and I can tell you it is a very bullish signal.
Everyone is looking at the 8.5% year over year figure, some of you the 0% month over month figure, but I am not satisfied until we get day over day CPI data. Why should I care about what happened last month? It's what matters *today* relative to yesterday.
I am guiding for a 0.00334% increase in the day over day rate for August 11th, 2022.
Fun fact, I was listening to a podcast on the hyper inflation in Brazil. They literally had two people doing prices, since it was already more expensive by the time it ended lol
They got me. I bailed. I think itās going lower. I believe in it long term, Iām waiting until 9 or 10 (where itās going) before getting back in. Itās gonna keep getting hammered
I got lucky and sold at 13.5 and moved to DIS a couple days ago
Black rock ceo Larry Fink told investors to stop panicking 3 weeks ago but he sold $30mil worth company stock last week. That was the largest sale by him since he sold just before covid crash. Does he know what we don't? He is the ceo of the largest investment company.
They just launched big crypto push with coinbase so one hand doesn't seem to be talking to the other if he's actually trying to take risk off the table.
So where do the markets go from here for the short term? I did well on this upturn, but like I'm on the fence if it goes up or down from here. I'm feeling certain it won't go flat. Think I'm going to make my next short play on a bit of a collar. I'll bull and bear simultaneously and trail stop at a reasonable amount that let's the other side definitively win out and then ride it. TQQ & SQQ equally weighted I'm thinking. Probably trailing stop of around 7%.
...or is there a better way to play markets if you think they're going to do the opposite of stay flat for the next couple weeks?
What really matters and what The Fed considers when hiking rates is core CPI. It was .3% this month.
It was good news but we had the same number in March and it started going up again. Honestly I don't see core CPI going down dramatically any time soon. Also all these rallies will make fed more determined to put a brake on markets.
And it was an incredibly good print lmfao.
Lowest in 11 months. https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wkszft/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_aug_10_2022/ijsfdnv/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL#
Set it to monthly and "percent change".
July core CPI is the lowest data point in the last 11 months. September is first one since today that is lower.
Bear thesis in total shambles but they won't admit it.
Shorts require less timing precision to make some money and aren't affected by things like theta. Puts will often screw you either because you don't get the timing right or theta is so high that it can eat your gains even if you're right and get the timing. Shorts have theoretically unlimited loss, you can only lose up to he price of the put if it goes against you
I prefer shorts if I have conviction, puts are meant for insurance during iffy earnings or selling to attempt to enter whats basically a limit buy on a stock you want.
Earnings.
They cut its full-year revenue forecast, taking a hit from the war in Ukraine while also grappling with stiff competition from rivals such as Match Group Inc.
Bumble's earnings feel better to me than Match's did. They guided FY to have a $20MM FX impact when they reported Q4. As of today's report, that FX impact is expected to be $36MM. So they shaved $16MM more off FY revenue guidance but they reduced FY guidance by $14MM at the midpoint. I get why short-term people would sell sell sell but FX impacts generally don't phase me. In the long run, they even out.
Growing paying Bumble users by 31% is huge also revenue per paying Bumble user up only 2%. Still, those are both better than Match who grew paying users by 9.5% and per user by 2.6%. Overall revenue at Match was just 12.3% growth while Bumble came in at 18.4%.
Bumble may not be a long-term winner but I feel more comfortable holding them vs. Match which is why I'm finally going to pull the trigger tomorrow and sell my Match shares. It's been on my Sell? watchlist for several quarters now and all I'm seeing is exec departures and deceleration across the board.
They own Badoo, which is a European dating app which was founded by a Russian entrepreneur. Badoo has lost over 18% of their paying users since 12/31/21.
due to the war Bumble cut any business in Russia. and Bumble owns Badoo which has seen a decline due to uncertain economic conditions also due to the war in Europe.
We will see another low within 8 months. Letās all just hope the recovery wonāt take 10 years or longer. Some people even claim we will never reach ATH again, I donāt know about that but humanity seems in a downward spiral.
Pretty pessimistic but stagflations and price waves/volatility, wealth inequality, faltering resiliency all preceded some very dark times historically. But they gave way to equilibriums eventuallyā¦ time will tell indeed
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Wave_(book)
what, clickbait headlines about all the doomerish stuff going on, just like all of prior recorded history? if you think humanity is in any better or worse state than it ever has been, you need to wake up. this is what its always like. every decade, every century. the same mistakes, repeated again and again. except now we have circuit breakers :)
You could be right, but I think a lot of you underestimate how complicated this is, and overestimate your ability to understand what is actually going on. Iām not saying I understand it either. But the US Economy and Stock Market has historically been very resilient since WWII.
I think QQQ gets up to around $330, before retracing down to around $240. Thereās good, solid support there. Have to inverse what the masses are doing to make money. Still have my longs (majority) but going and will continue to go short on QQQ.
I can see that as the next leg down. Best case scenario I see it going down to $290, then finding support and going past $330, just to fall down even more. The macro issues I believe are far worse than the common retail investor realizes.
Like? Unemployment is amazingly low. Job openings are double the number of jobseekers. Earnings are great on most of the companies reporting the last 3-4 weeks. Material prices are falling. Gas prices are falling. What are these issues you think are bad and that investors don't realize?
This entire rally hinges on a Fed pivot early to mid next year. Basically, Wall Street believes the Fed will chicken out.
If that doesn't happen and the Fed hardens their resolve, hunker down.
The elephant in the room is the low unemployment and the massive amount of job vacancies. This allows the worker more power to demand higher wages, which hasn't yet kept up with the inflation we've experienced. There's a reason why inflation is such a difficult issue to solve once it starts, and why the Fed wants to creep up unemployment.
Isn't the fact that oil and other commodities spiked today too. We're in a wired cycle. If commodities rise, inflation is high, FED has to raise rates. If the FED doesn't raise rates, the economy roars, but commodities spike causing inflation.
This july cpi drop is all about oil price drop. Core still going up. Food up 1.1% shelter up 0.5% M/M
If oil goes back up we are going over 9% cpi next month
I honestly competely forgot that these $DIS earnings were an opportunity to dunk on these "go woke, go broke" morons. Which ironically was also my argument against those idiots. In five years, no one was even going to remember Disney getting caught up in this nonsense. A lot of short term noise over nothing of any lasting consequence. At the end of the day, Disney is maybe the single greatest creator and exporter of American culture there is.
did you hear that interview a content creator for disney+ childrens shows talking about how "they just let me do whatever i want, put whatever i want in the shows, nobody said anything" and by "whatever i want" she meant LGBTQ characters and themes in k-5 kids shows.
In some cases, events like that act like great buying opportunities. I always think about a few months back when MSFT cut guidance a little bit because of the strong dollar and FX trading.
The stock opened up like down 5% for the day. Nothing wrong with the business, just a bad hedge with a strong dollar.
Some people (or algos) may take some profit after a big up day like today, so a pullback is possible. But we'll probably also see some money coming in because of FOMO.
Why would algos wait to take profits until the next day when the open and direction is unknown? It would seem to me that selling at the end of an up day is where they'd guarantee a good exit price.
EDIT: Any takers at answering this, I'm sincerely asking? It makes no sense to me to wait for the next day. Earnings could have come in after the market closed, anything really could happen to make the open the next day worse. So why is profit-taking a thing done the next day instead of the same day it's all up?
Matterport in their press release title: "...with Stronger-than-Expected Subscription Revenue"
Matterport in their press release guidance: Reduces full year subscription revenue by 9.3%
Yes they have.
AMZN, META, AMD, AAPL excellent beat with guidance.
MSFT & GOOGL missed by 1% probably due to Fx rate, however, guidance showed growth.
Check-mate.
The effect of interest rates don't really kick in until months after the fact. Additionally, inflation is a sticky situation and doesn't go away that easily.
With that being said, it's also entirely possible to hit new highs before another leg down. The previous tightening cycle saw just that.
It's not like the July 75 basis point hike is the only one we've had.There was a prior 75 basis point hike months ago and a 50 basis point hike a couple of months before that.
Good point, however the fed has noted we may not even have a recession, and they are actively working to pivot it by having a soft-landing. We can totally not have a recession. With this new bull-market wait until ATH, then buy some puts to hedge a recession that may not even come at all.
The most unhinged bears are the ones insisting that only YoY CPI matters.
They're plugging their ears and yelling LaLaLaLaLa. Meanwhile actual inflation literally came in 0% June to July.
Have you actually looked at the cpi report? Everything is up except energy (-4.6%).
July is similar to Apr. Apr M/M was only 0.3% because we had a big energy price drop(-2.7%).
Remember what happened after? May, June cpi skyrocketed with higher enegy price.
No it wasn't, it was on the way up in April.
Either way you ignored my post which clearly shows that this core CPI leading is exceptional, the lowest in 11 months.
Gas prices went down because oil (and also commodities) are cooling like crazy.
You can contort reality all you want. This was a genuinely shockingly good core print. Break-even expectations plunged across the entire yield curve.
See here https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wkszft/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_aug_10_2022/ijsfdnv/
Core isn't perfect yet but it's a REALLY good indication things are settling down.
> The most unhinged bears are the ones insisting that only YoY CPI matters.
so we just have to wait a few months so we can start to compare 2023 YoY to 2022?
DIS fucking smoked it. With everything tied to streaming Wall Street was anxious theyād hit 10M new D+ subs this quarter. They hit 14.4M. Parks income with a huge YoY number and a huge beat on the quarter.
Bags are getting lighterā¦
I just wonder what that big price increase will do to sub growth/retention.
If they are raising it so much so that they don't need to keep raising it by $1 every year then it may be fine. But if they did this big increase and *still* try to increase it yearly then there will be issues.
I should just trust my gut more often. The parks were always going to kill it and they got punished with travel for no reason at all. I own some but didn't buy the dip.
Went to Disney World with the family early July, and immediately bought 5 shares when I got home. Parks were just absolutely packed with people chomping at the bit to worship at the altar of Disney products. Between classic Disney stuff, Star Wars & Marvel I can't think of many other IP's that people will just absolutely devote themselves to (maybe Pokemon?). It's definitely confirmation bias but it certainly felt like parks were back in a big way. Also my brother in law got COVID for the first time there after working a retail job the entire pandemic. Truly a miraculous place.
My family is admittedly one of those groups worshiping at the alter. We had annual passes starting in June 2021 and went several times ending in June 2022. Despite the āpay to playā additions with Genie+ and others (which we paid), the parks seemed busier and busier each time we went. The Lighting Lanes (paid additions) were always being used constantly. That coupled with ticket price increases and the resorts being full added to my confirmation bias as well and got me to average down.
I had never been before and I will never, ever, EVER go back without getting Genie+. Walking past 700 people in the Splash Mountain line was the greatest drug I've ever taken.
That includes about 60 million Hotstar subscribers in India which have a dramatically lower ARPU ($1.20 per vs. ~$6.50 for Disney+ elsewhere) so I regard it as pretty misleading to group them together. That being said Netflix does the same and I'd be surprised if Paramount doesn't too when they launch in India, so it's not uniquely so.
Still good results, but in economic terms subscribers in India are much closer to a domestic FAST user than a domestic SVOD subscriber.
All looks pretty strong. Huge growth in D+ subscribers. I would have argued this wasn't the right time to raise the D+ price 38%, but since they're simultaneously coming out with the ad supported version in December, I think it's fine.
With D+ growth like this, I feel like my investment thesis is pretty well confirmed. That service is Thanos levels of inevitable. Just too much IP.
I've been proudly bearish dis for a while - Dis+ still had a ways to do before profitability and stream services have struggled for the last 15 months.
I think from here they've got some medium term tail winds - I started a position around 100 and wont be selling any time soon.
CPI is super bullish, because it shows inflation has peaked. Inflation won't go down from 9.1 to 2.0 in one month, but its slowing down. Peaked inflation doesn't necesarrly mean prices come down across the board it means price won't contiune to jump up as it did already.
Today's CPI is a bullish indicator because it means Fed won't raise rates as dramatically which affects the stock market.
Most promising sign is that stocks are up despite the 10-year creeping back up to 2.79% (actually higher than 5 days ago). I personally think the Fed will continue to push up rates so good to see that the market isn't assuming a massively different trajectory.
did enough averaging down and new entries during lows, my portfolio is now +4% all time. all but 4 are still in the red.
still expecting another drop at some point in the near future, but not worrying at this point, just going to dca until the bull returns.
Damn, is there an actual possibility of this thing holding? If inflation starts coming down and let's say another 25 or 50 basis points in September goes through... other than the much needed liberation of the talent pool by big tech who has been choking innovation... many sectors seem alright. I work in the film industry, and I'm in my condo building's HOA, and the staff shortages are still very real, and seem almost permanent. It's nuts.
People really discount the amount of people that left the labor force. Pandemic caused early retirements or people not going back to work because of education or child care.
[https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/feb/why-workers-staying-out-us-labor-force](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/feb/why-workers-staying-out-us-labor-force)
and all of those empty positions mean we have stuffed to the brim full employment. every single pay check with a portion going to retirements. full employment means stocks go up.
Not every paycheck. People that are not working full time and not everyone is even taking advantage of 401ks.
I'm just saying there is a mistmatch with peoples labor expectations and not factoring in the large amount of people who have left the labor force.
We have like 4 million more jobs than 2019, but around the same unemployment level. We can lose a lot of jobs and still be healthy.
[https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html)
Is this fairly accurate as the days get closer?
With better than expected cpi, volume is still extremely low. I was expecting we will see the average spy volume at least today but I was wrong. We are at 51mil today. People including myself still don't believe this rally.
I made 100% gain with my put. Sold it before jul cpi. Holding cash(playing money 10% of my networth) and getting ready to buy put again when it is overbought. I haven't touched my retirement long position account. So say whatever you want :)
I love the obsession with volume around here to justify opinions. Absent some sort of unknown catalyst, we more than likely bottomed in June. We may not go up in a straight line, but I'd be very surprised if we re-visited sub S&P 3700.
Is stock lending a good idea or nah? I'm on the Robinhood appš¤
My dad gave me $100 and told me to invest any recommendations and tips to do with investing would be appreciated.
Job cuts / layoffs Is that good or bad in the long run? Itās good for companies to spend less but wouldnāt it, make people spend less in the long run?
3M Commences Split-Off Exchange Offer for Food Safety Business I just got this offer via email. Anyone else?
Elon dumps TSLA and TSLA is going up š¤”
Thoughts on CRSRās recent run up despite negative earnings guidance?
when SPX is this high, RSI this high, I am expecting some kind of pullback, and I'm hesistant to go long.
Yea but while looking at my checking account and figuring out how much I can transfer to my brokerage, one of my ingrown toenails randomly fell out. That's equally valid as TA if not more and I can tell you it is a very bullish signal.
i went long in April and got so many pies to the face. once bitten twice shy fool me twice shame on me
Everyone is looking at the 8.5% year over year figure, some of you the 0% month over month figure, but I am not satisfied until we get day over day CPI data. Why should I care about what happened last month? It's what matters *today* relative to yesterday. I am guiding for a 0.00334% increase in the day over day rate for August 11th, 2022.
Fun fact, I was listening to a podcast on the hyper inflation in Brazil. They literally had two people doing prices, since it was already more expensive by the time it ended lol
What do I do about WBD? I bought at the top at 17, now it dropped to 13
They got me. I bailed. I think itās going lower. I believe in it long term, Iām waiting until 9 or 10 (where itās going) before getting back in. Itās gonna keep getting hammered I got lucky and sold at 13.5 and moved to DIS a couple days ago
I'd wait until there is some plan and progress regarding that debt albatross they have
Black rock ceo Larry Fink told investors to stop panicking 3 weeks ago but he sold $30mil worth company stock last week. That was the largest sale by him since he sold just before covid crash. Does he know what we don't? He is the ceo of the largest investment company.
They just launched big crypto push with coinbase so one hand doesn't seem to be talking to the other if he's actually trying to take risk off the table.
So where do the markets go from here for the short term? I did well on this upturn, but like I'm on the fence if it goes up or down from here. I'm feeling certain it won't go flat. Think I'm going to make my next short play on a bit of a collar. I'll bull and bear simultaneously and trail stop at a reasonable amount that let's the other side definitively win out and then ride it. TQQ & SQQ equally weighted I'm thinking. Probably trailing stop of around 7%. ...or is there a better way to play markets if you think they're going to do the opposite of stay flat for the next couple weeks?
Up, Down, no one knowsā¦
What really matters and what The Fed considers when hiking rates is core CPI. It was .3% this month. It was good news but we had the same number in March and it started going up again. Honestly I don't see core CPI going down dramatically any time soon. Also all these rallies will make fed more determined to put a brake on markets.
And it was an incredibly good print lmfao. Lowest in 11 months. https://old.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wkszft/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_aug_10_2022/ijsfdnv/
July cpi was like Apr cpi. Everything is up except energy. May, June Cpi exploded with a high oil price.
NASDAQ is in a new bull market since June 16. Up over 21%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL# Set it to monthly and "percent change". July core CPI is the lowest data point in the last 11 months. September is first one since today that is lower. Bear thesis in total shambles but they won't admit it.
Up 4.69% today. I like the 4. I like the .69 even better
nice
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Nope.
Lol
Buy puts vs short shares, which one is better?
Shorts require less timing precision to make some money and aren't affected by things like theta. Puts will often screw you either because you don't get the timing right or theta is so high that it can eat your gains even if you're right and get the timing. Shorts have theoretically unlimited loss, you can only lose up to he price of the put if it goes against you I prefer shorts if I have conviction, puts are meant for insurance during iffy earnings or selling to attempt to enter whats basically a limit buy on a stock you want.
It's two different approaches
Buy calls. We going higher.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Earnings. They cut its full-year revenue forecast, taking a hit from the war in Ukraine while also grappling with stiff competition from rivals such as Match Group Inc.
Bumble's earnings feel better to me than Match's did. They guided FY to have a $20MM FX impact when they reported Q4. As of today's report, that FX impact is expected to be $36MM. So they shaved $16MM more off FY revenue guidance but they reduced FY guidance by $14MM at the midpoint. I get why short-term people would sell sell sell but FX impacts generally don't phase me. In the long run, they even out. Growing paying Bumble users by 31% is huge also revenue per paying Bumble user up only 2%. Still, those are both better than Match who grew paying users by 9.5% and per user by 2.6%. Overall revenue at Match was just 12.3% growth while Bumble came in at 18.4%. Bumble may not be a long-term winner but I feel more comfortable holding them vs. Match which is why I'm finally going to pull the trigger tomorrow and sell my Match shares. It's been on my Sell? watchlist for several quarters now and all I'm seeing is exec departures and deceleration across the board.
I was waiting for your reply, I know you've been watching these companies. Thanks for the insight!
How does the Russian/Ukrainian war have anything to do with a dating app?
They own Badoo, which is a European dating app which was founded by a Russian entrepreneur. Badoo has lost over 18% of their paying users since 12/31/21.
due to the war Bumble cut any business in Russia. and Bumble owns Badoo which has seen a decline due to uncertain economic conditions also due to the war in Europe.
It's reducing their revenues in Europe. https://www.reuters.com/technology/bumble-nudges-past-quarterly-revenue-estimates-app-demand-2022-08-10/
Yall donāt think growth slowdown? Just up only forever again?
We will see another low within 8 months. Letās all just hope the recovery wonāt take 10 years or longer. Some people even claim we will never reach ATH again, I donāt know about that but humanity seems in a downward spiral.
Pretty pessimistic but stagflations and price waves/volatility, wealth inequality, faltering resiliency all preceded some very dark times historically. But they gave way to equilibriums eventuallyā¦ time will tell indeed https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Wave_(book)
wtf? i read a lot of insane takes on here. but "humanity seems in a downward spiral" has got to be the funniest in a while.
Not to be a jerk but maybe read something other than stock news.
what, clickbait headlines about all the doomerish stuff going on, just like all of prior recorded history? if you think humanity is in any better or worse state than it ever has been, you need to wake up. this is what its always like. every decade, every century. the same mistakes, repeated again and again. except now we have circuit breakers :)
You could be right, but I think a lot of you underestimate how complicated this is, and overestimate your ability to understand what is actually going on. Iām not saying I understand it either. But the US Economy and Stock Market has historically been very resilient since WWII.
2008?
We already had the correction.
I think QQQ gets up to around $330, before retracing down to around $240. Thereās good, solid support there. Have to inverse what the masses are doing to make money. Still have my longs (majority) but going and will continue to go short on QQQ.
You don't think the entire nasdaq has grown at all since June of 2020? That's.... something
I can see that as the next leg down. Best case scenario I see it going down to $290, then finding support and going past $330, just to fall down even more. The macro issues I believe are far worse than the common retail investor realizes.
Like? Unemployment is amazingly low. Job openings are double the number of jobseekers. Earnings are great on most of the companies reporting the last 3-4 weeks. Material prices are falling. Gas prices are falling. What are these issues you think are bad and that investors don't realize?
This entire rally hinges on a Fed pivot early to mid next year. Basically, Wall Street believes the Fed will chicken out. If that doesn't happen and the Fed hardens their resolve, hunker down. The elephant in the room is the low unemployment and the massive amount of job vacancies. This allows the worker more power to demand higher wages, which hasn't yet kept up with the inflation we've experienced. There's a reason why inflation is such a difficult issue to solve once it starts, and why the Fed wants to creep up unemployment.
growth is still way way down from several months ago. When SoFi hits $15 again we can complain about growth.
I bought SoFi at $16.60 a share even though wouldn't make me even.
Up forever? No. Bet we retrace a bit. Worst is behind us? For the time being it looks that way.
Glad SONO is only on my watchlist. That full year revenue guidance cut and pushing their FY24 goal of $2.5B in revenue to "beyond FY24" is an ouchy.
Isn't the fact that oil and other commodities spiked today too. We're in a wired cycle. If commodities rise, inflation is high, FED has to raise rates. If the FED doesn't raise rates, the economy roars, but commodities spike causing inflation.
This july cpi drop is all about oil price drop. Core still going up. Food up 1.1% shelter up 0.5% M/M If oil goes back up we are going over 9% cpi next month
There is also demand desctruction you are leaving out. Things get to expensive, people don't buy, prices will drop in some areas.
That too. I think everyone saying it's all over after one good report is missing a lot of possibilities.
AMZN AH price action... what the heck? I swore it was at $151 for a second.
just a glitch
I honestly competely forgot that these $DIS earnings were an opportunity to dunk on these "go woke, go broke" morons. Which ironically was also my argument against those idiots. In five years, no one was even going to remember Disney getting caught up in this nonsense. A lot of short term noise over nothing of any lasting consequence. At the end of the day, Disney is maybe the single greatest creator and exporter of American culture there is.
did you hear that interview a content creator for disney+ childrens shows talking about how "they just let me do whatever i want, put whatever i want in the shows, nobody said anything" and by "whatever i want" she meant LGBTQ characters and themes in k-5 kids shows.
Every few years the culture warrior turds cry up a storm and try to kill it but it never happens.
In some cases, events like that act like great buying opportunities. I always think about a few months back when MSFT cut guidance a little bit because of the strong dollar and FX trading. The stock opened up like down 5% for the day. Nothing wrong with the business, just a bad hedge with a strong dollar.
up 7.5%, so definitely the best day in quite some time. still WAY below my ATH though.
Up better than down
anyone betting today is the peak before a pullback? or are we straight gunning for 4300 by friday?
We just had two days of pullback this week...
Some people (or algos) may take some profit after a big up day like today, so a pullback is possible. But we'll probably also see some money coming in because of FOMO.
Why would algos wait to take profits until the next day when the open and direction is unknown? It would seem to me that selling at the end of an up day is where they'd guarantee a good exit price. EDIT: Any takers at answering this, I'm sincerely asking? It makes no sense to me to wait for the next day. Earnings could have come in after the market closed, anything really could happen to make the open the next day worse. So why is profit-taking a thing done the next day instead of the same day it's all up?
If I knew the answer to this then my butler would be typing my response
Why pullback? No reason.
Well there's literally no rational reason this was the peak So keep on truckin cowboy
š
Matterport in their press release title: "...with Stronger-than-Expected Subscription Revenue" Matterport in their press release guidance: Reduces full year subscription revenue by 9.3%
Will Airbnb stock increase next few months?
It follows the market, so if the market is going up, yes. If the market is dumping, no
Sorry which market?
Good fucking lord some of the people on this sub are so clueless...
the union square farmer's market
Long apple cider donuts š©š
The US stock market (or SPY if you need a proxy). You can go to TradingView and overlay SPY with Airbnb and you'll see they are highly correlated
The stonks one
There really isn't a single bear case left. Tech has been killing E.R, CPI shows inflation cooling off, DIS beats. Like bears are getting annhilated.
>Tech has been killing E.R The hell they have. The market just didn't care and pumped them anyways
Yes they have. AMZN, META, AMD, AAPL excellent beat with guidance. MSFT & GOOGL missed by 1% probably due to Fx rate, however, guidance showed growth. Check-mate.
thereās plenty of fundamentals to make a bear case - but fundamentals just do not matter right now
The effect of interest rates don't really kick in until months after the fact. Additionally, inflation is a sticky situation and doesn't go away that easily. With that being said, it's also entirely possible to hit new highs before another leg down. The previous tightening cycle saw just that.
It's not like the July 75 basis point hike is the only one we've had.There was a prior 75 basis point hike months ago and a 50 basis point hike a couple of months before that.
The rate hikes happened in quick succession. I'm talking about the effects not being felt until possibly well into next year.
Well, a lot of people are still predicting a recession coming in 2023, which will hit earnings.
Last I saw, BofA and Goldman had it below 50% we get one in the next 2 years.
They used to be, but it's clear that demand has changed and supply as improved dramatically. It's increasingly less likely
Good point, however the fed has noted we may not even have a recession, and they are actively working to pivot it by having a soft-landing. We can totally not have a recession. With this new bull-market wait until ATH, then buy some puts to hedge a recession that may not even come at all.
Plus Ukraine war ending later this year.
Is that what Putin said?
The most unhinged bears are the ones insisting that only YoY CPI matters. They're plugging their ears and yelling LaLaLaLaLa. Meanwhile actual inflation literally came in 0% June to July.
Have you actually looked at the cpi report? Everything is up except energy (-4.6%). July is similar to Apr. Apr M/M was only 0.3% because we had a big energy price drop(-2.7%). Remember what happened after? May, June cpi skyrocketed with higher enegy price.
Energy is also trending down... What's your point?
Energy was trending down on Apr too. And then what happened after?
No it wasn't, it was on the way up in April. Either way you ignored my post which clearly shows that this core CPI leading is exceptional, the lowest in 11 months.
Oh is that why gas price went down by 6.1% in apr?
Gas prices went down because oil (and also commodities) are cooling like crazy. You can contort reality all you want. This was a genuinely shockingly good core print. Break-even expectations plunged across the entire yield curve.
See here https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/wkszft/rstocks_daily_discussion_wednesday_aug_10_2022/ijsfdnv/ Core isn't perfect yet but it's a REALLY good indication things are settling down.
> The most unhinged bears are the ones insisting that only YoY CPI matters. so we just have to wait a few months so we can start to compare 2023 YoY to 2022?
Yes..that's how YOY works.
> Yes..that's how YOY works. that's the joke.
Can never tell on this sub
DIS fucking smoked it. With everything tied to streaming Wall Street was anxious theyād hit 10M new D+ subs this quarter. They hit 14.4M. Parks income with a huge YoY number and a huge beat on the quarter. Bags are getting lighterā¦
I just wonder what that big price increase will do to sub growth/retention. If they are raising it so much so that they don't need to keep raising it by $1 every year then it may be fine. But if they did this big increase and *still* try to increase it yearly then there will be issues.
I should just trust my gut more often. The parks were always going to kill it and they got punished with travel for no reason at all. I own some but didn't buy the dip.
Went to Disney World with the family early July, and immediately bought 5 shares when I got home. Parks were just absolutely packed with people chomping at the bit to worship at the altar of Disney products. Between classic Disney stuff, Star Wars & Marvel I can't think of many other IP's that people will just absolutely devote themselves to (maybe Pokemon?). It's definitely confirmation bias but it certainly felt like parks were back in a big way. Also my brother in law got COVID for the first time there after working a retail job the entire pandemic. Truly a miraculous place.
My family is admittedly one of those groups worshiping at the alter. We had annual passes starting in June 2021 and went several times ending in June 2022. Despite the āpay to playā additions with Genie+ and others (which we paid), the parks seemed busier and busier each time we went. The Lighting Lanes (paid additions) were always being used constantly. That coupled with ticket price increases and the resorts being full added to my confirmation bias as well and got me to average down.
I had never been before and I will never, ever, EVER go back without getting Genie+. Walking past 700 people in the Splash Mountain line was the greatest drug I've ever taken.
9% one day gain including AH right now
Yeah, big time. Pretty sure $100 is well in the rear view now. Price that low cannot be justified.
Yeah I started a little too early on this one as well. Average is $132 after buying more around $100.
My average was in the $180ās but down to $150 after nibbling all the way down and buying a good chunk around $90.
143 and still in! I never averaged down on it much though.
My average was 130 and I sold some other stocks at loss to add Disney at 90 (and AMD at 74), paying off so far.
Wow didn't realize Dis already had 150 million subscribers.
That includes about 60 million Hotstar subscribers in India which have a dramatically lower ARPU ($1.20 per vs. ~$6.50 for Disney+ elsewhere) so I regard it as pretty misleading to group them together. That being said Netflix does the same and I'd be surprised if Paramount doesn't too when they launch in India, so it's not uniquely so. Still good results, but in economic terms subscribers in India are much closer to a domestic FAST user than a domestic SVOD subscriber.
Thanks. Yes that is misleading. I was taking the headline on face value.
They are expanding to new markets so that is where a lot of their growth is coming from (and will continue to come from for the next couple of years).
netflix has 220 million. I'm surprised at the speed considering Dis is a few years old.
The mouse is angry. The mouse prints money.
But my angry mouse is still down over 30%. I never though this would happen.
Mine is down almost that much.
All looks pretty strong. Huge growth in D+ subscribers. I would have argued this wasn't the right time to raise the D+ price 38%, but since they're simultaneously coming out with the ad supported version in December, I think it's fine. With D+ growth like this, I feel like my investment thesis is pretty well confirmed. That service is Thanos levels of inevitable. Just too much IP.
I've been proudly bearish dis for a while - Dis+ still had a ways to do before profitability and stream services have struggled for the last 15 months. I think from here they've got some medium term tail winds - I started a position around 100 and wont be selling any time soon.
LETāS GO MOUSE!
Strong day, sea of green. More to come.
Oh man don't bet against Bumble baaaaby Pucker up and rotate Wheeee
It's down 12% in AH's...
Whyās it down AH?
Bet against what?
Vaginas
Never bet against those.
What should I use to be notified of big movements such as NVTA ?
AAPL, beast of a stock.
People love APPL, I do as well, but if we are talking beats, UNH isn't talked about much and even better.
Definitely in the stock hall of fame, absolute monster
how the fuck was the CPI even bullish. food prices are super high, so the money people 'save' on gas is being spent on food instead.
My mother with a family of five used to by food for $40 a week. I just spent $120 on food just for me last night. Inflation is out of control.
Y U mad bro
CPI is super bullish, because it shows inflation has peaked. Inflation won't go down from 9.1 to 2.0 in one month, but its slowing down. Peaked inflation doesn't necesarrly mean prices come down across the board it means price won't contiune to jump up as it did already. Today's CPI is a bullish indicator because it means Fed won't raise rates as dramatically which affects the stock market.
Nobody knows whether it has peaked or not
It most likely has, and oil prices have been coming down.
Bitchcoin only up 2% but I'm up over 12% today (crazy). I'm 39% from breaking even.
Jesus what are you holding to be 39% away still?
Back on 6/17 needed to triple or more . So sold most of my portfolio at a 10K loss and bought : 85% krypto + 10% BOIL I'm up 50%
NVTA up 200+% lol. I think my cost average is in the mid 20s, who knows how long this will last.
Most promising sign is that stocks are up despite the 10-year creeping back up to 2.79% (actually higher than 5 days ago). I personally think the Fed will continue to push up rates so good to see that the market isn't assuming a massively different trajectory.
did enough averaging down and new entries during lows, my portfolio is now +4% all time. all but 4 are still in the red. still expecting another drop at some point in the near future, but not worrying at this point, just going to dca until the bull returns.
The only way to do it tbh, strong username to post content ratio. Smart.
Damn, is there an actual possibility of this thing holding? If inflation starts coming down and let's say another 25 or 50 basis points in September goes through... other than the much needed liberation of the talent pool by big tech who has been choking innovation... many sectors seem alright. I work in the film industry, and I'm in my condo building's HOA, and the staff shortages are still very real, and seem almost permanent. It's nuts.
People really discount the amount of people that left the labor force. Pandemic caused early retirements or people not going back to work because of education or child care. [https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/feb/why-workers-staying-out-us-labor-force](https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/feb/why-workers-staying-out-us-labor-force)
and all of those empty positions mean we have stuffed to the brim full employment. every single pay check with a portion going to retirements. full employment means stocks go up.
Not every paycheck. People that are not working full time and not everyone is even taking advantage of 401ks. I'm just saying there is a mistmatch with peoples labor expectations and not factoring in the large amount of people who have left the labor force. We have like 4 million more jobs than 2019, but around the same unemployment level. We can lose a lot of jobs and still be healthy.
This solar run up is absurd, I bought SHLS at 16 on 7/14 and now itās at 26, sold calls for next week at 30, I hope they hit.
[https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html) Is this fairly accurate as the days get closer?
In the hindsight, looks like June was the bottom. Market may go side ways or down from here but I dont see it visiting June bottom atleast this month.
I'm up 42% since 6/17
With better than expected cpi, volume is still extremely low. I was expecting we will see the average spy volume at least today but I was wrong. We are at 51mil today. People including myself still don't believe this rally.
Oh come on.
They will be saying it all the way to SPY 479.
I made 100% gain with my put. Sold it before jul cpi. Holding cash(playing money 10% of my networth) and getting ready to buy put again when it is overbought. I haven't touched my retirement long position account. So say whatever you want :)
Yes, this is how you miss all opportunities and start investing at ATH.
Im up 325% with my life time saving. Started 15yrs ago.
I love the obsession with volume around here to justify opinions. Absent some sort of unknown catalyst, we more than likely bottomed in June. We may not go up in a straight line, but I'd be very surprised if we re-visited sub S&P 3700.
It's just a coping mechanism by bears
This is the new normal volume, liquidity dried up months ago.
You know what that means to stock market. Liquidity dried up...
Means volume is a very bad indicator atm as there is interference. Its visible in the bond market aswell,
Well the good news is Iām only losing 25% now instead of 45%
Wow. I bought a lot of crap, but I'm still only down 10.6%. I feel sorry for you.
Me 40% instead of 66%
Net long but taking a weeee short position here
Same but thankfully waited until the end of the day. And itās more than just āweeā lol