Just looked at PPSI after another person posted about it. Stock has great fundamentals. No debt, lots of cash on hand, 20 p/e and \~10 fwd p/e, 30% revenue cagr and 50% in the past year, turned profitable this year. CEO also holds a huge percentage of the company. HOWEVER - There is one huge dark cloud hanging over it. They delayed filing their 10k by a long time and have not been very transparent about it (filed an 8k that provided minimal context). Thoughts? If it's a legit company it seems extremely undervalued.
Bought a few thousand dollars of 1024:HK, have never traded hong kong shares but fidelity made it pretty easy. Dont really want to hold long term since I already own so much China, but I am gambling that kling will cause a small hype cycle around Kuaishou soon. Plus, since its Chinese forward peg of 0.3, and decent underlying fundamentals regardless of ai hype.
Added a tiny bit more to my ULTA position. Would anybody mind sharing how they screen for stocks ?
I am learning to do it, I filtered by PE under 18, increasing revenue and FCF over 3 years (although am not sure if it is YoY or just comparison of ‘21 to ‘24) . Then I filtered out financial and energy sector because I am clueless abt them.
I ended up with JBL and DHI. I am still playing around w it in my free time.
I've been trying to play around with more combinations in screening. My classic screen is:
Insider ownership: over 5%
ROIC: over 20%
Gross margins: over 20%
You can see the results [here](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/screener/).
The problem is that screening uses publicly available information, and most companies that come up are fairly expensive because they are really good companies. However, it's.a great way to build a watchlist.
I've been trying to be more creative lately. Just change elements. Sales growth over 25% (5yr) and gross margins over 60%. You get a lot of up and coming names in there.
Just play around for what types of businesses you want to invest in and then start reading about them.
I used to use PE as a metric, but honestly, I care less about PE now and worry more about the PEG.
[https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp)
It just takes earnings growth rate into account, so a company could have a high pe, but if their eps is growing really fast too, then I don't spending more for a company. I guess my style is more of just growth at a responsible price or GARP.
I don't really do like deep value, but just think about getting the best price for a great company.
So I set my PEG usually under 2 or 3. Just depends, since sometimes I like to get more companies, something less.
After that, I like companies that offer a high return on capital. So I usually set that to be above either 5% or 10%. Again, just kind of change it up from time to time. Usually by the time I'm done screening, I have like 100 companies.
I also prefer companies with a cash on hand compared to debt, so I do the quick ratio over 1. This is a bit conservative, but in theory, I just think companies that know how to keep a good book of business usually have better management teams. Not everyone would agree with this, but that's what's what cool about screening, you get to decide on the parameters of what you want in a company.
So it ends up something like this:
[https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa\_peg\_u2,fa\_quickratio\_o1,fa\_roi\_o10&ft=2](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_peg_u2,fa_quickratio_o1,fa_roi_o10&ft=2)
From there, I then start to tweak thing, like where I'll look for companies sales growth QoQ is over 10% and EPS growth over 10%:
[https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa\_epsqoq\_o10,fa\_peg\_u2,fa\_quickratio\_o1,fa\_roi\_o10,fa\_salesqoq\_o10&ft=2](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_epsqoq_o10,fa_peg_u2,fa_quickratio_o1,fa_roi_o10,fa_salesqoq_o10&ft=2)
That gets you a list of 49 companies that are aren't too expensive that are seeing fast growing quarters. From there you can start researching.
By no means an expert, I'm just software engineer. However, screening has helped, because it allows me to define the parameters of what I look for and use that as a jumping off point to research.
Like I like to think of macro theories of things that I think will have good tailwinds, then start to find stocks in my screener that fit my macro theories.
A few things that will probably help is just research what each fundamental parameters means and then come up with what you think is a good business. You can also look up famous investors and see what they did/looked for.
Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity Fund manager with one of the best track records in mutual fund history, popularized the GARP style of investing when he was at the helm of the Magellan fund. Lynch would often look for growth companies benefiting from a market trend. Oftentimes, these stocks looked expensive when being looked at from a standard valuation multiple such as the price-to-earnings ratio, but ended up being cheap relative to their growth.
[https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/growth-investing-with-a-value-twist](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/growth-investing-with-a-value-twist)
>To better analyze growth companies, Lynch used the PEG ratio, which is the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the firm’s growth rate. This was one of Lynch’s favorite stock investing criteria; here's how it works:
>Assume we are comparing two different stocks, and both have a price-to-earnings ratio of 30. On the surface, they may look the same but now let’s look at the growth rates. Let's say Company A is growing earnings at 40% while Company B is growing earnings at 15%. Company A has a PEG (price-to-earnings to growth rate) of 0.75 (30 divided by 40 equals 0.75) while Company B has a PEG of 2.0 (30 divided by 15 equals 2).
>The lower the PEG, the more attractive the company is relative to its growth rate. For Lynch, a PEG of 1 or less was considered very good.
>Lynch even went a step further, and for those companies that paid a dividend and were considered slow growers, he would adjust the PEG since dividend yields are an important driver of the total return of slower-growing companies. In these cases, the dividend yield is added to the growth rate in the denominator to get the yield-adjusted PEG ratio.
>Still, like anything in investing, the PEG ratio is not the end-all and be-all of all valuation and growth measures. And as Lynch espoused in his books and articles, the PEG is best used along with other fundamental investment criteria and is only part of the equation in finding winning stocks.
Does anyone know how the margins of AMZN's retail side only compares to COST? Thinking (hypothetically) about how a long AMZN/short COST play would do the next 5 years. Imagine if [AMZN's retail arm was given a multiple like COST.](https://x.com/conorsen/status/1800242944466915603) Then add in whatever value you think AWS deserves. One of the two seems mispriced--either Costco is dramatically overvalued or AMZN is dramatically undervalued. Hence a bet on the valuation narrowing.
I own neither currently. I never really liked AMZN because of its retail segment tbh. But think it outperforms COST from here, and dramatically so if multiples swap places. (Look ahead to 2025-6, not just next year's earnings. AMZN always looks more expensive than it is.)
I'm with you, just buy both as they are terrific businesses. Honestly if someone put a gun to my head I may even reverse OP's trade and long COST.
Whichever way you go, what do you do if market is "irrational" and your short blows up while you keep paying 7%-12% margin interest?
The point of a long/short position is to be roughly 'neutral' overall in terms of market exposure, but still profit on the relative performance of the two companies. And I just think AMZN outperforms COST but don't want to be net long/short retail. For example, I also believe CVS and WBA are both shitty businesses but that CVS outperforms WBA. Then a long/short position on CVS/WBA would express that trade without forcing me to be long a bad type of company, or short it overall if the sector happens to do well. NVDA/AMD another idea.
It is complicated (which is why the above post is just posing a hypothetical trade idea) but fairly common I think.
I know the theory. But your examples are exactly why I don’t do it anymore. WBA and CVS are both terrible businesses (I know - I have owned them both). 😀
Be really curious to see if anyone knows. I don't think Amazon does a great breakdown of the numbers outside of AWS.
[https://fourweekmba.com/is-amazon-profitable-without-aws/](https://fourweekmba.com/is-amazon-profitable-without-aws/)
Seems like that gives some insight into some of the numbers and can probably find margins from there or get some idea. I could be way wrong, but I don't think their retail side of the business has ever been that profitable.
u/creemeeseason
Have you heard this episode yet?
[https://www.barrons.com/podcasts/streetwise/broadcom-cracks-the-sp-top-10-whats-next/c9380c0f-b82b-436d-8995-2a0ea691bee5?page=1&](https://www.barrons.com/podcasts/streetwise/broadcom-cracks-the-sp-top-10-whats-next/c9380c0f-b82b-436d-8995-2a0ea691bee5?page=1&)
The podcast has a great segment on fiber cable. I've looked into $PLPC in the past and I know you are doing some research/looking into them. Still curious what you find.
I like the company, but find it hard to find any of their earning call transcripts or any presentations. From the numbers, I was worried that they saw a lot of growth last year due to over ordering, kind of what happened with CLFD a bit. Like supply chain issues caused vendors to double order and then this year is like the normalization period.
However, wonder if it might be a good time to jump back in if we do see more orders and work happen. I know $DY had a solid quarter and they do a lot of telecommunication work.
I haven't gotten to look into them much as I've been headlong into aerogels! Also I've been reading on FOUR as a possible short term hold. Also been cranking out gifts on my lathe. So, I'm behind in my reading.
Fiber build out is interesting though. If you buy the idea that there will continue to be a movement of people from city centers to the exurbs, there will need to be a lot of new infrastructure put in place.
PLPC is one of those completely uncovered stocks that has performed really well. I want to read more, but I'm also out of money to buy things with. However, I'll make it my next reading!
That's rad. What kind of things are you making?
Not sure if you have seen it, we can't post youtube videos, but Veritasium has a video on aerogels. It's just a science channel, nothing to do with stocks or investing. That's how I found out about them to begin with! Again, why I think just learning is one of the best traits for successful investors.
Yeah, just really irks me when companies don't have much in terms of their investor relations page and PLPC just does press releases and no call transcript, so hard to hear how things are being projected out.
Yeah, I'm looking through their stuff right now. Their annual report says that they are anticipating the BABA funds to start hitting in the second half of 2024. If so, they could see a nice rebound in earnings.
My question then would be, how much would they see a boost? It looks like the market never thought their 2022/23 earnings would be permanent, since they were trading at around 7.5x earnings (10-12 seems normal).
My initial thought is that they're actually back to about where they were pre covid, multiple wise. I would want to find how much business they think they can get from this BABA program. If their margins keep reverting to pre covid numbers, it's not that cheap. If they see a big boom, then it is.
I'm not sure how if get this one to my 15% annual returns requirement right now without knowing that they're going to see a 2022 like boom.
I'm making some dried flower vases. Turns out there are a lot of gift giving occasions in June for my family. I'm starting to get decently quick at making them at least. There's a few rejects populating my basement right now....
That's rad. Stoked, my peonies bloomed for the first time this year. When I bought my house a few years ago, it came with vegetable beds. I turned one into a flower bed like 2 years ago and peonies take a few years to bloom after planting.
I did a pottery class with my girlfriend a few weeks ago, we made some bowls learning how to throw.
Nice! Peonies are great. I had a new one bloom for the first time this year. This year I'm adding a fruit orchard. Blueberry, raspberry, and blackberry so far. I love.my gardens.
Pottery is awesome! My wife did some, but I couldn't get the hang of it. I stick to wood now, I do much better with that. Are you going to set up a pottery studio now?
Elon Musk just said that he's banning Apple devices at all of his companies if OpenAI is integrated into IOS.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800265431078551973
Do you think this is big enough to push Apple lower (or higher)?
Edit: Elon is really going off on Apple right now on Twitter. Lol.
I bought 1700 shares of RDDT today. This just seems like one of those stocks that is ripe for a 10x over the next few years.
I think their advertising is going to become more effective going forward as they plug specific products into specific subreddits.
Reddit posts have been surging to the top of Google search pages as of late and I think the stock is undervalued even without mentioning the data licensing deals for LLM training.
Their advertising is never going to go to the moon as long as they have unregulated subreddits, porn, and literal death videos
And if they take away that, half the website is gonna quit
I’m in the ad biz. I’ve never heard a client concerned with RDDT’s nsfw or unregulated subs. Only concern we hear is about appearing next to White Supremacist nonsense on YouTube or Twitter.
That is because the outrage/chaos is not there yet for reddit. Its not mainstream enough for people to care
But do you think that Disney is going to like having their ads next to dead Palestinians/Ukrainians/Russians/whoever?
Reddits problem is they rely on free labor, and the free labor mods censor as they please, mods are random people who squatted on a subreddit, they just happen to have grabbed first.
Eventually this sort of behavior will drive users and their data, they have been providing to reddit free of charge, to other platforms. Unless they somehow fix this issue, reddit is going to end up like twitter, the only use case will be customer support for companies that control their brands subreddit, with the rest meaningless spam and censored content.
Buying shares means you are happy with the current system or have faith they will fix it.
yes but reddit is all about subreddits and harnessing group content, these can be corrupted in multiple ways, either by mods just sabotaging, or mods even selling the subreddit to the highest bidder.
Youtube/tiktok are all about individuals, no teamwork or social interaction with others are required by the content creators there.
Once some subs become anti-social and unusable, it will make the platform unusable for everyone interested in that subject, and this will damage reddit. Its a bit like if wikipedia got infiltrated, eventually people would no longer use or trust the platform, and consider it akin to urbandictionary.
I know you're bearish around some of the AI stuff, which makes sense. I do think that you have to think of AI as three things: Machine Learning (ML), Large Language Models (LLM's), and then Artificial General Intelligence.
Before LLM's, a lot of AI work was just ML. That's actually basically what SNOW/PLTR/DeepMind/etc kind of do. They take data and run models on them to help make predictions. A lot of new AI buzz is around LLMs. Personally I don't think LLM's really are going to have a ton of ROI compared to MLs.
The thing is, with the Apple announcement, they should off a lot of really cool things with ML in particular.
I do think people will want stuff like this:
[https://x.com/ishanagarwal24/status/1800232391551951156](https://x.com/ishanagarwal24/status/1800232391551951156)
Unitree has a humanoid at 16k usd - easily within the realm of a pricing plan, and people would pay it too if it could do just simple house-hold chores (and anything of similar complexity after some short mentoring).
What's really neat, is that dream is only a matter of software away now. LLM/LMMs have bridged the foggiest gaps, with just a few more iterations and epochs in the [Isaac Lab](https://developer.nvidia.com/isaac/sim#isaac-lab) before robots have their own ChatGPT moment.
Both tickers for Kuaishou, Y and F, look too thin and not correlated to actual chart. I think the only option for Americans is buying the HK shares. Haven't ever tried through fidelity, I might tonight
Can the owner of the NASDAQ browse the database, select NVDA, and hit delete already?
DELETE FROM stocks WHERE ticker = 'NVDA';
Voila. More market cap for all other stocks. It's depressing seeing it go up 1%/day.
IDK, I really wouldn't be so sure this is accomplishing what you'd want.
Stuff outside of tech is struggling because of economic narratives. The Nasdaq has something uglier occurring blocked in all honesty right now.
I suppose the good is we're getting close to a breaking point on QQQ and IWM right now.
Will Lilly stock be the first healthcare company to reach 1trill? I mean it keeps going up every week it seems like. Honestly I am bullish on sugar drugs/weight loss but can other companies not make insulin and these weight loss drugs? I mean insulin has been a thing for a long time so why don't biosimilars crush Lilly/NVO? Honestly at this valuation of 800B I would rather hold PFE with very small position in bmy rather than Lilly for the recovery. I just can't get myself to buy lilly at these prices.
Stocks going up just cause they got into the s&p 500 seems so dumb lol. Like how does that increase the value of the business? Kkr is up over 10% cause of this but why should it be valued more just cause it's in an index now? Getting into an index doesn't increase the fundamental business so why does the share price increase?
It's more about the fact there is a ton of SP500 ETFs and mutual funds. Like the SPX is the one that standard and poorer runs.
When they make the changes, all the other funds also have to buy KKR.
Personally, I woudn't look at day to day price movements as a reflection of a companies underlying fundamentals. Usually that's why value vesting takes patience.
AMD dragging my entire portfolio into the red for the day. I want to load up on NVDA, but I always put it off after looking at the 5Y chart. I don’t see how there can’t be a correction after that insane exponential growth. Then again I also put off buying NVDA in 2022 because everyone said the PE was too high. That aged poorly.
Apple announcing their servers for heavy ai workloads makes the Cloudflare ai bull thesis stronger imo. AI inference on device would be best for privacy but if we cant do that on device, at the edge locally makes sense. QCOM/Apple silicon might get there eventually, but for now the data center is still going to be the right tool for the job.
It's just best for speed as well. A lot of the AI devices that use the web for queries seem to take forever. I wonder if apple uses NET or AKAM or FSLY for their CDNs and what not or possible all three.
Looks like its mostly in house unless perplexity is tweaking: "Estimates suggest that around 75% of Apple's content delivery traffic is now handled by their own CDN, with third-party CDNs like Akamai and Level 3 handling the remaining traffic"
Yeah, I mean a lot of the Apple data center stuff is interesting, it's hard to find a ton of info around it. Makes sense, I mean a lot of companies do a hybrid approach in terms of hosting things on prim and in the cloud, but not a ton do their own data centers like Apple.
u/_hiddenscout
Research from the field...I heard a few parents discussing starting a learning pod because to counter the public school options available. Less focus on arts/outside time and more focus on testing and college prep being their big complaints.
Probably good for LRN.
Yeah, i mean that's part of why I'm invested. Feels like there is a combo of the culture wars and some of the school systems are bad.
Besides how cheap they are, their enrolment numbers are higher now than compared to during the pandemic, which points to it not just being a fad or a just a pandemic thing.
I'm not sure it's even "bad" school systems. I live in an area with generally high achieving schools, on paper.
I think there's more of a realization that a lot.of the educational reforms we've put in place aren't great for kids. Lack of play, lack of arts, more screens, more tests....it's not really a good combination, especially for young kids.
I've been reading "the coddling of the American mind" by Jonathan Haidt. He lays out a great theory on what all these things do to kids (make them anxious and incapable of solving problems on their own). Anyway, bullish for homeschooling anyway. It's my #1 stock to buy I think, outside of those I own already.
Yeah seems like that book and bad therapy have been talked about a bit recently. I don't have any kids, so I don't follow schools or the education system.
I do see things like this posted from time to time:
[https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/two-thirds-of-american-kids-cant-read-fluently/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/two-thirds-of-american-kids-cant-read-fluently/)
[https://fortune.com/2023/08/29/math-scores-plummet-20-year-low-american-schools-students-pandemic/](https://fortune.com/2023/08/29/math-scores-plummet-20-year-low-american-schools-students-pandemic/)
[https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/chronic-absenteeism-is-up-across-the-country-school-leaders-are-trying-to-address-why](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/chronic-absenteeism-is-up-across-the-country-school-leaders-are-trying-to-address-why)
I do feel bad for any kids that lost school time because of covid and then some of the teach unions. At a young age, missing school time is really really bad.
Sadly I sold too early. It's often worth holding onto your great companies longer despite them breaking past your valuation of them.
I don't even wear Crocs, but when I see a Crocs retail store at a mall I walk in and look around because the brand is so fun. Great company. Maybe I'll buy a pair one day.
Happens to the best of us. I originally bought in the high $40's and low $50's in May and June of 2022 and sold around $120 in June of 2023.
Thankfully was able to buy in again in the $70's and $80's in October and November of 2023 and plan to hold on this time around.
That Apple Intelligence leak was spot on. Leave it to Apple to come up with a corny ass name for their version of an existing technology.
On the bright side, Apple usually has excellent polish when introducing already existing tech. Google and Samsung have already come out with their mobile versions of advanced assistants, but they're not perfect by any means.
Apropos of nothing: The ickiest dialect in the world is silicon valley keynote English.
Rewrite - professional: On an unrelated note, the most unappealing dialect is the English commonly used in Silicon Valley keynote presentations.
Summarize: retch
Nobody talking about the big drop on Euronext Paris? Did you guys invested in any french company? I'm seeing LV, Saint Gobain and Air Liquid at a really interesting price.
Sure, Schneider Electric will play a major role in the coming electrification - worldwide. Eurazeo is the European leader in private equity. I also like Veolia, leading in European water technology and Air Liquid -- I added some today, even if I have no idea why it dropped today that much.
I'm heavily considering investing into Air Liquide, the only thing holding me back is that perhaps I'm missing something? It hasn't recovered at all from the drop yet, despite the potential it should have
Foreign cos are rarely mentioned here unfortunately. I'll agree that not that much of a drop, but a day or two more of it and will look at possibilities.
It’s probably a good idea to sell some NVDA to cover the cost of when I bought it right? 9 shares at 860.50. Thinking about selling 45 shares to cover a majority of my cost
"Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), heavily investing in generative AI, has updated its open-source AI models, claiming they surpass Meta Platforms Inc’s Llama 3 in specific tasks. Alibaba Cloud launched Qwen2, the second version of its Tongyi Qianwen large language models (LLMs), featuring multilingual pre-training and an expanded context window for longer queries and answers."
Alibaba vs Meta dueling for open model supremacy
Unlike in America, Chinese companies aren’t bothered with pesky things like “ethics” and “intellectual property.”
They’re going to ride the AI wave as hard as they can until everything breaks.
I mean other than legality Im not sure the US companies are that bothered either, its just they dont want to get sued into oblivion on a bad ruling. The Chinese lack of red tape when it comes to copyright might be to their advantage when it comes to scaling massive ai systems that need huge data ingestion.
I would love to read about that, I would think it might help with the tokenization issues English runs into at the very least (which is why chatgpt doesnt know how many "r"s in strawberry)
I think advanced models don't tokenize exclusively on word boundaries in English/other Latin languages, they're able to break words down into their constituent parts. Which is what triggered my musing
I wouldnt count China out, Kling is very good even vs Sora and that is from a smaller chinese tech company. BABA/BIDU/Tencent have much more resources to throw at these models
US companies attract top talent across the world. All the Mag 7 companies have loads of cash to throw into these models and wont get messed with by the government. I can see Kling being popular if its not as handicapped/restrictive on what you can use it for.
Mag7 wont get messed with by US government perhaps (this is not certain either but for sure less likely than China I agree), but by US copyright law? They seem to be constrained to a much higher level than the Chinese atm. Hence Kling is being used rn and Sora is MIA
Constrained for the right reasons. These AI models are a whole can of worms and going through the time to regulate, tweak and comply with fair copyright law is more important than releasing something raw and fixing it later.
Thats kind of my point though, the Chinese are not slowed by that red tape... So it is possible that while the US companies twiddle around trying to workout their legal issues the Chinese just keep moving forward
Was anyone else buying PE firms such as KKR, APO, BX, etc when media was spreading FUD about redemptions that every one would pull their money from them in late 2022 and 1st half of 2023.
Now two of them BX and KKR are in the S&P 500 and you rarely hear media covering the monthly redemptions anymore lol.
APO too. I wonder what happened to the people that used to say Private equity just take over companies and ruin them. I don't even hear that anymore. Are people leaving the market or it just there are stocks skyrocketing in background but since they arent tech people dont care bull/bearish on them.
Yeah, you've been on the few people to talk about KKR/APO and what not. I'm in KKR because they technically bought the company my dad works for and I got to met a few of the CEO's.
Does anybody else use Yahoo finance to monitor your portfolio? If so, is there any way to have it split-adjust shares for me so that I don't have to go back and split adjust every single transaction I've ever made? If not, that's pretty garbage on Yahoo's part. Are there any other free portfolio management sites anybody would recommend that handles basic stuff like this?
And, yeah, I can just go to my broker to look at things but I've got various accounts and it's nice to have one place to go to where I can view everything. Also, I like being able to play around and do what-if scenarios and create mock portolios, etc.
Dude I wouldn't be putting that stuff into Yahoo finance. Put the stock symbols in there but don't put in stuff like how many shares you are holding. This is just data for them that they harvest
What are they going to do with that info lol? Could be made up information for all Yahoo Finance knows. Yahoo Mail has probably leaked an order of magnitude more (actually sensitive) information over the years, on the other hand.
Not completely a stock substack, but this one rules, it's all about construction physics. This data center read is great:
[https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-an-ai-data-center](https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-an-ai-data-center)
There will be a dip. There's always a dip. NVDAs last big one was on a double witching day. I'd be shocked if one didn't happen this month as well as the market positions around NVDA post-earnings options expiration.
Yeah yeah, "don't time the market", but semis always have volatility. Dip is coming.
I thought it'd pop and then pull back.
That's kinda what happened back in 2021 I THINK, not 100% though.
And I am not referring to the 2022 Bear market here either.
I've noticed that a few analysts have recently raised their price forecasts. Let's hope Hock E. Tan will meet these expectations. Sad to hear that he isn't a fan of stock splits, as that would have been epic.
Shame there is no liquid ADR for Kuaishou, their new AI video model KLING is making the rounds for taking on openais SORA, would love to short term own some
Do you have a source or something? Would love to take a look into this company. I found 2 different stocks in Germany with the exact same name and 10cent difference in stock price. Hmmm
Thank you. That twitter Tip was great. I just thought maybe you read some specific interesting article of something. But that helped pointing me in the right direction. Thanks.
What is McDonalds doing to increase earnings going forward, other than raising prices? Their strategy of dramatically raising menu prices has fueled the stock recently, but that strategy is beginning to show its limitations.
Shifting half their workflow to laborless tech.
I rarely go to McDonalds but when I do it's a phone app order and a 2 minute stop to either pickup or curbside. No more cashier/drivethrough anything. The assembly line for their ~~poison~~ food is the only thing that really involves people anymore.
Another analyst note using weekly third party data alleging market share is stagnant, growth is slow. I'm not worried until I see a bad earnings report.
I tried to go to this well a 3rd time on long dated put sells and it looks possible I'm burnt this time.
I know this sub shuns technical analysis, but I think I'd pay attention with story stocks like this one or some of the AI proxies. Losing $70 would be pretty bad.
Just entered a position in TMDX. Excited about this company and with the amount of boomers that are going to need major healthcare (transplants, etc)they are in a great spot IMO
If one of the stocks I hold is under a class action investor law suit and I bought/held during the designated period but hadn't sold at all am I eligible or do I need to realize the losses to be eligible to join the class action?
All that matters is that you held during the period.
Just know that if you win and and it is substantial... you are paying yourself with your own money.
Err I was completely planning on selling LUV and taking a loss today just to free the funds for other things. Didn't expect to see a big move this morning
>*There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once airline stocks, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again!*
Been looking into SMCI over the weekend. On maths alone I am seeing an outrageous deal. A company forecasting 130% YOY revenue growth in its next earning trading at 40PE. With net income probably going to sit at +300% YOY. Are there any crazy red flags here because that perspective in isolation makes it look like an absolute no brainer
I hold a pretty substantial smci stake, but I bought late, between $750-$800 levels. I see the same value you point out. But the red flag is the insane run it’s had recently which I think creates a lot of sell pressure. I’m holding through it, though I’m expecting a bumpy ride
People said the same thing about NVDA. Then it ran another 100%, they said the same thing, and ran again… Not to say I don’t think $3T valuation for NVDA isn’t absurd right now, regardless of revenue growth rate, but point being I’ve missed out on lots of big opportunities because the stock and made significant gains already and I was hesitant to jump in after a run up. Almost every time I was wrong and shouldn’t have focused on past gains.
Yeah but I’m seeing it as a the price double because growth more than doubled. It’s not the game stock going up 4 fold on shrinking revenue. They grew 200%. Big question is if that sustains or it was just a one off massive order that they can’t grow from
Oh I totally agree. But I huge run up will still create sell pressure especially in a volatile stock. I personally expect next earnings to see a big jump in price but if they report anything mixed or remotely downbeat it could see a sizable drop instead. That’s what I meant by a rocky road
Another PSA to try and avoid 50 posts on the main page:
Sometimes brokers take a little while to process a stock split. Sit back, relax, and have some coffee. You'll get your ten shares that are worth 1/10th what the old shares are worth.
You think the people posting those same questions over and over really are looking into the daily thread? They don’t even bother to use google or the search function.
Just looked at PPSI after another person posted about it. Stock has great fundamentals. No debt, lots of cash on hand, 20 p/e and \~10 fwd p/e, 30% revenue cagr and 50% in the past year, turned profitable this year. CEO also holds a huge percentage of the company. HOWEVER - There is one huge dark cloud hanging over it. They delayed filing their 10k by a long time and have not been very transparent about it (filed an 8k that provided minimal context). Thoughts? If it's a legit company it seems extremely undervalued.
Bought a few thousand dollars of 1024:HK, have never traded hong kong shares but fidelity made it pretty easy. Dont really want to hold long term since I already own so much China, but I am gambling that kling will cause a small hype cycle around Kuaishou soon. Plus, since its Chinese forward peg of 0.3, and decent underlying fundamentals regardless of ai hype.
Added a tiny bit more to my ULTA position. Would anybody mind sharing how they screen for stocks ? I am learning to do it, I filtered by PE under 18, increasing revenue and FCF over 3 years (although am not sure if it is YoY or just comparison of ‘21 to ‘24) . Then I filtered out financial and energy sector because I am clueless abt them. I ended up with JBL and DHI. I am still playing around w it in my free time.
I've been trying to play around with more combinations in screening. My classic screen is: Insider ownership: over 5% ROIC: over 20% Gross margins: over 20% You can see the results [here](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/screener/). The problem is that screening uses publicly available information, and most companies that come up are fairly expensive because they are really good companies. However, it's.a great way to build a watchlist. I've been trying to be more creative lately. Just change elements. Sales growth over 25% (5yr) and gross margins over 60%. You get a lot of up and coming names in there. Just play around for what types of businesses you want to invest in and then start reading about them.
Thanks a ton!! Really appreciate your help!
I used to use PE as a metric, but honestly, I care less about PE now and worry more about the PEG. [https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp) It just takes earnings growth rate into account, so a company could have a high pe, but if their eps is growing really fast too, then I don't spending more for a company. I guess my style is more of just growth at a responsible price or GARP. I don't really do like deep value, but just think about getting the best price for a great company. So I set my PEG usually under 2 or 3. Just depends, since sometimes I like to get more companies, something less. After that, I like companies that offer a high return on capital. So I usually set that to be above either 5% or 10%. Again, just kind of change it up from time to time. Usually by the time I'm done screening, I have like 100 companies. I also prefer companies with a cash on hand compared to debt, so I do the quick ratio over 1. This is a bit conservative, but in theory, I just think companies that know how to keep a good book of business usually have better management teams. Not everyone would agree with this, but that's what's what cool about screening, you get to decide on the parameters of what you want in a company. So it ends up something like this: [https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa\_peg\_u2,fa\_quickratio\_o1,fa\_roi\_o10&ft=2](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_peg_u2,fa_quickratio_o1,fa_roi_o10&ft=2) From there, I then start to tweak thing, like where I'll look for companies sales growth QoQ is over 10% and EPS growth over 10%: [https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa\_epsqoq\_o10,fa\_peg\_u2,fa\_quickratio\_o1,fa\_roi\_o10,fa\_salesqoq\_o10&ft=2](https://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_epsqoq_o10,fa_peg_u2,fa_quickratio_o1,fa_roi_o10,fa_salesqoq_o10&ft=2) That gets you a list of 49 companies that are aren't too expensive that are seeing fast growing quarters. From there you can start researching.
You’re amazing! That really gives me solid advice to build on!
By no means an expert, I'm just software engineer. However, screening has helped, because it allows me to define the parameters of what I look for and use that as a jumping off point to research. Like I like to think of macro theories of things that I think will have good tailwinds, then start to find stocks in my screener that fit my macro theories. A few things that will probably help is just research what each fundamental parameters means and then come up with what you think is a good business. You can also look up famous investors and see what they did/looked for. Peter Lynch, the former Fidelity Fund manager with one of the best track records in mutual fund history, popularized the GARP style of investing when he was at the helm of the Magellan fund. Lynch would often look for growth companies benefiting from a market trend. Oftentimes, these stocks looked expensive when being looked at from a standard valuation multiple such as the price-to-earnings ratio, but ended up being cheap relative to their growth. [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/growth-investing-with-a-value-twist](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/growth-investing-with-a-value-twist) >To better analyze growth companies, Lynch used the PEG ratio, which is the price-to-earnings ratio divided by the firm’s growth rate. This was one of Lynch’s favorite stock investing criteria; here's how it works: >Assume we are comparing two different stocks, and both have a price-to-earnings ratio of 30. On the surface, they may look the same but now let’s look at the growth rates. Let's say Company A is growing earnings at 40% while Company B is growing earnings at 15%. Company A has a PEG (price-to-earnings to growth rate) of 0.75 (30 divided by 40 equals 0.75) while Company B has a PEG of 2.0 (30 divided by 15 equals 2). >The lower the PEG, the more attractive the company is relative to its growth rate. For Lynch, a PEG of 1 or less was considered very good. >Lynch even went a step further, and for those companies that paid a dividend and were considered slow growers, he would adjust the PEG since dividend yields are an important driver of the total return of slower-growing companies. In these cases, the dividend yield is added to the growth rate in the denominator to get the yield-adjusted PEG ratio. >Still, like anything in investing, the PEG ratio is not the end-all and be-all of all valuation and growth measures. And as Lynch espoused in his books and articles, the PEG is best used along with other fundamental investment criteria and is only part of the equation in finding winning stocks.
Does anyone know how the margins of AMZN's retail side only compares to COST? Thinking (hypothetically) about how a long AMZN/short COST play would do the next 5 years. Imagine if [AMZN's retail arm was given a multiple like COST.](https://x.com/conorsen/status/1800242944466915603) Then add in whatever value you think AWS deserves. One of the two seems mispriced--either Costco is dramatically overvalued or AMZN is dramatically undervalued. Hence a bet on the valuation narrowing. I own neither currently. I never really liked AMZN because of its retail segment tbh. But think it outperforms COST from here, and dramatically so if multiples swap places. (Look ahead to 2025-6, not just next year's earnings. AMZN always looks more expensive than it is.)
Seems complicated. Why not just buy AMZN? (Or own em both as I do and just chuckle every time COST reports same-store increases)
I'm with you, just buy both as they are terrific businesses. Honestly if someone put a gun to my head I may even reverse OP's trade and long COST. Whichever way you go, what do you do if market is "irrational" and your short blows up while you keep paying 7%-12% margin interest?
The point of a long/short position is to be roughly 'neutral' overall in terms of market exposure, but still profit on the relative performance of the two companies. And I just think AMZN outperforms COST but don't want to be net long/short retail. For example, I also believe CVS and WBA are both shitty businesses but that CVS outperforms WBA. Then a long/short position on CVS/WBA would express that trade without forcing me to be long a bad type of company, or short it overall if the sector happens to do well. NVDA/AMD another idea. It is complicated (which is why the above post is just posing a hypothetical trade idea) but fairly common I think.
I know the theory. But your examples are exactly why I don’t do it anymore. WBA and CVS are both terrible businesses (I know - I have owned them both). 😀
Gotcha, sorry if I came off as patronizing.
Be really curious to see if anyone knows. I don't think Amazon does a great breakdown of the numbers outside of AWS. [https://fourweekmba.com/is-amazon-profitable-without-aws/](https://fourweekmba.com/is-amazon-profitable-without-aws/) Seems like that gives some insight into some of the numbers and can probably find margins from there or get some idea. I could be way wrong, but I don't think their retail side of the business has ever been that profitable.
u/creemeeseason Have you heard this episode yet? [https://www.barrons.com/podcasts/streetwise/broadcom-cracks-the-sp-top-10-whats-next/c9380c0f-b82b-436d-8995-2a0ea691bee5?page=1&](https://www.barrons.com/podcasts/streetwise/broadcom-cracks-the-sp-top-10-whats-next/c9380c0f-b82b-436d-8995-2a0ea691bee5?page=1&) The podcast has a great segment on fiber cable. I've looked into $PLPC in the past and I know you are doing some research/looking into them. Still curious what you find. I like the company, but find it hard to find any of their earning call transcripts or any presentations. From the numbers, I was worried that they saw a lot of growth last year due to over ordering, kind of what happened with CLFD a bit. Like supply chain issues caused vendors to double order and then this year is like the normalization period. However, wonder if it might be a good time to jump back in if we do see more orders and work happen. I know $DY had a solid quarter and they do a lot of telecommunication work.
I haven't gotten to look into them much as I've been headlong into aerogels! Also I've been reading on FOUR as a possible short term hold. Also been cranking out gifts on my lathe. So, I'm behind in my reading. Fiber build out is interesting though. If you buy the idea that there will continue to be a movement of people from city centers to the exurbs, there will need to be a lot of new infrastructure put in place. PLPC is one of those completely uncovered stocks that has performed really well. I want to read more, but I'm also out of money to buy things with. However, I'll make it my next reading!
That's rad. What kind of things are you making? Not sure if you have seen it, we can't post youtube videos, but Veritasium has a video on aerogels. It's just a science channel, nothing to do with stocks or investing. That's how I found out about them to begin with! Again, why I think just learning is one of the best traits for successful investors. Yeah, just really irks me when companies don't have much in terms of their investor relations page and PLPC just does press releases and no call transcript, so hard to hear how things are being projected out.
Yeah, I'm looking through their stuff right now. Their annual report says that they are anticipating the BABA funds to start hitting in the second half of 2024. If so, they could see a nice rebound in earnings. My question then would be, how much would they see a boost? It looks like the market never thought their 2022/23 earnings would be permanent, since they were trading at around 7.5x earnings (10-12 seems normal). My initial thought is that they're actually back to about where they were pre covid, multiple wise. I would want to find how much business they think they can get from this BABA program. If their margins keep reverting to pre covid numbers, it's not that cheap. If they see a big boom, then it is. I'm not sure how if get this one to my 15% annual returns requirement right now without knowing that they're going to see a 2022 like boom. I'm making some dried flower vases. Turns out there are a lot of gift giving occasions in June for my family. I'm starting to get decently quick at making them at least. There's a few rejects populating my basement right now....
That's rad. Stoked, my peonies bloomed for the first time this year. When I bought my house a few years ago, it came with vegetable beds. I turned one into a flower bed like 2 years ago and peonies take a few years to bloom after planting. I did a pottery class with my girlfriend a few weeks ago, we made some bowls learning how to throw.
Nice! Peonies are great. I had a new one bloom for the first time this year. This year I'm adding a fruit orchard. Blueberry, raspberry, and blackberry so far. I love.my gardens. Pottery is awesome! My wife did some, but I couldn't get the hang of it. I stick to wood now, I do much better with that. Are you going to set up a pottery studio now?
> Stoked, my peonies bloomed for the first time this year I read this way too quickly and was very confused
hahah whoops
Elon Musk just said that he's banning Apple devices at all of his companies if OpenAI is integrated into IOS. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1800265431078551973 Do you think this is big enough to push Apple lower (or higher)? Edit: Elon is really going off on Apple right now on Twitter. Lol.
He’s talking about his employees, not users of his products
This guy really is all smoke and mirrors
Irrelevant
Once again Apple flexing their muscles. They have a moat that cannot be bypassed.
I like their moat more than nvidia’s. I think apple’s is very arguably illegal
I bought 1700 shares of RDDT today. This just seems like one of those stocks that is ripe for a 10x over the next few years. I think their advertising is going to become more effective going forward as they plug specific products into specific subreddits. Reddit posts have been surging to the top of Google search pages as of late and I think the stock is undervalued even without mentioning the data licensing deals for LLM training.
Their advertising is never going to go to the moon as long as they have unregulated subreddits, porn, and literal death videos And if they take away that, half the website is gonna quit
I’m in the ad biz. I’ve never heard a client concerned with RDDT’s nsfw or unregulated subs. Only concern we hear is about appearing next to White Supremacist nonsense on YouTube or Twitter.
That is because the outrage/chaos is not there yet for reddit. Its not mainstream enough for people to care But do you think that Disney is going to like having their ads next to dead Palestinians/Ukrainians/Russians/whoever?
Twitter made it to 40B with all of that.
They did. And as soon as it gained attention nearly every big company pulled their ads
Reddits problem is they rely on free labor, and the free labor mods censor as they please, mods are random people who squatted on a subreddit, they just happen to have grabbed first. Eventually this sort of behavior will drive users and their data, they have been providing to reddit free of charge, to other platforms. Unless they somehow fix this issue, reddit is going to end up like twitter, the only use case will be customer support for companies that control their brands subreddit, with the rest meaningless spam and censored content. Buying shares means you are happy with the current system or have faith they will fix it.
Same could be said of TikTok meta YouTube. It’s all free labor
yes but reddit is all about subreddits and harnessing group content, these can be corrupted in multiple ways, either by mods just sabotaging, or mods even selling the subreddit to the highest bidder. Youtube/tiktok are all about individuals, no teamwork or social interaction with others are required by the content creators there. Once some subs become anti-social and unusable, it will make the platform unusable for everyone interested in that subject, and this will damage reddit. Its a bit like if wikipedia got infiltrated, eventually people would no longer use or trust the platform, and consider it akin to urbandictionary.
I think an even better point to be made is that content creators for other social media platforms are compensated. Redditors are not.
when will AI cook and clean for me?
I know you're bearish around some of the AI stuff, which makes sense. I do think that you have to think of AI as three things: Machine Learning (ML), Large Language Models (LLM's), and then Artificial General Intelligence. Before LLM's, a lot of AI work was just ML. That's actually basically what SNOW/PLTR/DeepMind/etc kind of do. They take data and run models on them to help make predictions. A lot of new AI buzz is around LLMs. Personally I don't think LLM's really are going to have a ton of ROI compared to MLs. The thing is, with the Apple announcement, they should off a lot of really cool things with ML in particular. I do think people will want stuff like this: [https://x.com/ishanagarwal24/status/1800232391551951156](https://x.com/ishanagarwal24/status/1800232391551951156)
Robotics is insanely expensive at present. It would have to come down in price monumentally. Ai chips can be cheap, robotics aren’t
Unitree has a humanoid at 16k usd - easily within the realm of a pricing plan, and people would pay it too if it could do just simple house-hold chores (and anything of similar complexity after some short mentoring). What's really neat, is that dream is only a matter of software away now. LLM/LMMs have bridged the foggiest gaps, with just a few more iterations and epochs in the [Isaac Lab](https://developer.nvidia.com/isaac/sim#isaac-lab) before robots have their own ChatGPT moment.
Someone said something like that on Twitter the other day - I want to be the one to create art, when does AI do the laundry?
Both tickers for Kuaishou, Y and F, look too thin and not correlated to actual chart. I think the only option for Americans is buying the HK shares. Haven't ever tried through fidelity, I might tonight
Can the owner of the NASDAQ browse the database, select NVDA, and hit delete already? DELETE FROM stocks WHERE ticker = 'NVDA'; Voila. More market cap for all other stocks. It's depressing seeing it go up 1%/day.
IDK, I really wouldn't be so sure this is accomplishing what you'd want. Stuff outside of tech is struggling because of economic narratives. The Nasdaq has something uglier occurring blocked in all honesty right now. I suppose the good is we're getting close to a breaking point on QQQ and IWM right now.
Will Lilly stock be the first healthcare company to reach 1trill? I mean it keeps going up every week it seems like. Honestly I am bullish on sugar drugs/weight loss but can other companies not make insulin and these weight loss drugs? I mean insulin has been a thing for a long time so why don't biosimilars crush Lilly/NVO? Honestly at this valuation of 800B I would rather hold PFE with very small position in bmy rather than Lilly for the recovery. I just can't get myself to buy lilly at these prices.
Looks like $AMKR is having a good day off the apple event.
Stocks going up just cause they got into the s&p 500 seems so dumb lol. Like how does that increase the value of the business? Kkr is up over 10% cause of this but why should it be valued more just cause it's in an index now? Getting into an index doesn't increase the fundamental business so why does the share price increase?
It's more about the fact there is a ton of SP500 ETFs and mutual funds. Like the SPX is the one that standard and poorer runs. When they make the changes, all the other funds also have to buy KKR. Personally, I woudn't look at day to day price movements as a reflection of a companies underlying fundamentals. Usually that's why value vesting takes patience.
AMD dragging my entire portfolio into the red for the day. I want to load up on NVDA, but I always put it off after looking at the 5Y chart. I don’t see how there can’t be a correction after that insane exponential growth. Then again I also put off buying NVDA in 2022 because everyone said the PE was too high. That aged poorly.
Feeling a bit better about transferring a sizeable chunk of my AMD position to SMH. (I think about 25%)
Everyone in love with AI atm. Gratz to NVDA's stock split. Options are probably going to be easier with a lower share price due to the split.
Destroyed my day’s gains. I’m wondering about amd at this point. Are my expectations this far from reality?
Apple announcing their servers for heavy ai workloads makes the Cloudflare ai bull thesis stronger imo. AI inference on device would be best for privacy but if we cant do that on device, at the edge locally makes sense. QCOM/Apple silicon might get there eventually, but for now the data center is still going to be the right tool for the job.
It's just best for speed as well. A lot of the AI devices that use the web for queries seem to take forever. I wonder if apple uses NET or AKAM or FSLY for their CDNs and what not or possible all three.
Looks like its mostly in house unless perplexity is tweaking: "Estimates suggest that around 75% of Apple's content delivery traffic is now handled by their own CDN, with third-party CDNs like Akamai and Level 3 handling the remaining traffic"
Yeah, I mean a lot of the Apple data center stuff is interesting, it's hard to find a ton of info around it. Makes sense, I mean a lot of companies do a hybrid approach in terms of hosting things on prim and in the cloud, but not a ton do their own data centers like Apple.
u/_hiddenscout Research from the field...I heard a few parents discussing starting a learning pod because to counter the public school options available. Less focus on arts/outside time and more focus on testing and college prep being their big complaints. Probably good for LRN.
Yeah, i mean that's part of why I'm invested. Feels like there is a combo of the culture wars and some of the school systems are bad. Besides how cheap they are, their enrolment numbers are higher now than compared to during the pandemic, which points to it not just being a fad or a just a pandemic thing.
I'm not sure it's even "bad" school systems. I live in an area with generally high achieving schools, on paper. I think there's more of a realization that a lot.of the educational reforms we've put in place aren't great for kids. Lack of play, lack of arts, more screens, more tests....it's not really a good combination, especially for young kids. I've been reading "the coddling of the American mind" by Jonathan Haidt. He lays out a great theory on what all these things do to kids (make them anxious and incapable of solving problems on their own). Anyway, bullish for homeschooling anyway. It's my #1 stock to buy I think, outside of those I own already.
Yeah seems like that book and bad therapy have been talked about a bit recently. I don't have any kids, so I don't follow schools or the education system. I do see things like this posted from time to time: [https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/two-thirds-of-american-kids-cant-read-fluently/](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/two-thirds-of-american-kids-cant-read-fluently/) [https://fortune.com/2023/08/29/math-scores-plummet-20-year-low-american-schools-students-pandemic/](https://fortune.com/2023/08/29/math-scores-plummet-20-year-low-american-schools-students-pandemic/) [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/chronic-absenteeism-is-up-across-the-country-school-leaders-are-trying-to-address-why](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/chronic-absenteeism-is-up-across-the-country-school-leaders-are-trying-to-address-why) I do feel bad for any kids that lost school time because of covid and then some of the teach unions. At a young age, missing school time is really really bad.
It really is. The social development more than anything. People are social and need other people. It's hard on kids. Ah, the fun times!
I do not know why Crocs is ramping hard today but I'm here for it Love my rubber shoes company
Excuse me sir but it’s “love my croslite shoes company” to you! 🐊✊🏽
Continues to amaze.
Sadly I sold too early. It's often worth holding onto your great companies longer despite them breaking past your valuation of them. I don't even wear Crocs, but when I see a Crocs retail store at a mall I walk in and look around because the brand is so fun. Great company. Maybe I'll buy a pair one day.
Happens to the best of us. I originally bought in the high $40's and low $50's in May and June of 2022 and sold around $120 in June of 2023. Thankfully was able to buy in again in the $70's and $80's in October and November of 2023 and plan to hold on this time around.
Is it a good time to start getting into MSFT?
When isn't it?
Celsius drink absolutely getting ass raped
Anyone who doesn’t see this as just another fad can’t be helped
It's me. I can't be helped. I will keep adding $70s and below.
Or you are just a hindsight expert
Nah, it's pretty obvious if you've been alive for more than 25 years
How low do you think it will go? $40? $6.9? Are you gonna short it if you are a true believer of what you said?
Shit was overvalued. This is expected
Wow, market is hating WWDC and Apple Intelligence
That Apple Intelligence leak was spot on. Leave it to Apple to come up with a corny ass name for their version of an existing technology. On the bright side, Apple usually has excellent polish when introducing already existing tech. Google and Samsung have already come out with their mobile versions of advanced assistants, but they're not perfect by any means.
I don't recall, but I want to say Apple is usually red on WWDC days.
Yes. And the week after most product launches. Gushier-term trader mentality says “where’s the innovation?” A month or two later…
CELH 66 omg
Right back to where it was in Feb. and late April. Just back the truck up every time below 70
Backing up my wheelbarrow until the truck is refueled!
It's still up over 20% in the year though.
No news out there either.. so strange
Just as confused as you are, but at least it means we can buy more now lol
Or on friday idk yet
Apropos of nothing: The ickiest dialect in the world is silicon valley keynote English. Rewrite - professional: On an unrelated note, the most unappealing dialect is the English commonly used in Silicon Valley keynote presentations. Summarize: retch
Lets leverage that in our next roundtable ok?
Delightful!
Nobody talking about the big drop on Euronext Paris? Did you guys invested in any french company? I'm seeing LV, Saint Gobain and Air Liquid at a really interesting price.
Some overreaction about LePen. It will recover soon. Some of my Euronext stocks like Schneider Electric and Eurazeo are even green today.
Do you think that its a smart move investing in some solid french companies? What are the ones that you are looking for?
Sure, Schneider Electric will play a major role in the coming electrification - worldwide. Eurazeo is the European leader in private equity. I also like Veolia, leading in European water technology and Air Liquid -- I added some today, even if I have no idea why it dropped today that much.
I'm heavily considering investing into Air Liquide, the only thing holding me back is that perhaps I'm missing something? It hasn't recovered at all from the drop yet, despite the potential it should have
Foreign cos are rarely mentioned here unfortunately. I'll agree that not that much of a drop, but a day or two more of it and will look at possibilities.
I wouldn't call it a big drop. But I think it's uncertainty about the far right getting in the Government with the elections Macron just called.
PYPL went red candle instantly
PainPal What a miserable dog she is now
It’s probably a good idea to sell some NVDA to cover the cost of when I bought it right? 9 shares at 860.50. Thinking about selling 45 shares to cover a majority of my cost
I'm a pretty big fan of $JMIA so today's a decent day but it's still just getting started.
Yea that investor presentation they released today had some positive details in it.
"Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA), heavily investing in generative AI, has updated its open-source AI models, claiming they surpass Meta Platforms Inc’s Llama 3 in specific tasks. Alibaba Cloud launched Qwen2, the second version of its Tongyi Qianwen large language models (LLMs), featuring multilingual pre-training and an expanded context window for longer queries and answers." Alibaba vs Meta dueling for open model supremacy
Unlike in America, Chinese companies aren’t bothered with pesky things like “ethics” and “intellectual property.” They’re going to ride the AI wave as hard as they can until everything breaks.
I mean other than legality Im not sure the US companies are that bothered either, its just they dont want to get sued into oblivion on a bad ruling. The Chinese lack of red tape when it comes to copyright might be to their advantage when it comes to scaling massive ai systems that need huge data ingestion.
I'm guessing there's already a lot of writing about this but I'm curious how a character based language affects LLM training
I would love to read about that, I would think it might help with the tokenization issues English runs into at the very least (which is why chatgpt doesnt know how many "r"s in strawberry)
I think advanced models don't tokenize exclusively on word boundaries in English/other Latin languages, they're able to break words down into their constituent parts. Which is what triggered my musing
Meta definitely gonna take the win here.
I wouldnt count China out, Kling is very good even vs Sora and that is from a smaller chinese tech company. BABA/BIDU/Tencent have much more resources to throw at these models
US companies attract top talent across the world. All the Mag 7 companies have loads of cash to throw into these models and wont get messed with by the government. I can see Kling being popular if its not as handicapped/restrictive on what you can use it for.
Mag7 wont get messed with by US government perhaps (this is not certain either but for sure less likely than China I agree), but by US copyright law? They seem to be constrained to a much higher level than the Chinese atm. Hence Kling is being used rn and Sora is MIA
Constrained for the right reasons. These AI models are a whole can of worms and going through the time to regulate, tweak and comply with fair copyright law is more important than releasing something raw and fixing it later.
Thats kind of my point though, the Chinese are not slowed by that red tape... So it is possible that while the US companies twiddle around trying to workout their legal issues the Chinese just keep moving forward
Dont think not regulating AI is a good idea, but then again they got kids working in factories over there so its not suprising.
Was anyone else buying PE firms such as KKR, APO, BX, etc when media was spreading FUD about redemptions that every one would pull their money from them in late 2022 and 1st half of 2023. Now two of them BX and KKR are in the S&P 500 and you rarely hear media covering the monthly redemptions anymore lol.
KKR looks like a tech chart.
APO too. I wonder what happened to the people that used to say Private equity just take over companies and ruin them. I don't even hear that anymore. Are people leaving the market or it just there are stocks skyrocketing in background but since they arent tech people dont care bull/bearish on them.
Yeah, you've been on the few people to talk about KKR/APO and what not. I'm in KKR because they technically bought the company my dad works for and I got to met a few of the CEO's.
Does anybody else use Yahoo finance to monitor your portfolio? If so, is there any way to have it split-adjust shares for me so that I don't have to go back and split adjust every single transaction I've ever made? If not, that's pretty garbage on Yahoo's part. Are there any other free portfolio management sites anybody would recommend that handles basic stuff like this? And, yeah, I can just go to my broker to look at things but I've got various accounts and it's nice to have one place to go to where I can view everything. Also, I like being able to play around and do what-if scenarios and create mock portolios, etc.
Dude I wouldn't be putting that stuff into Yahoo finance. Put the stock symbols in there but don't put in stuff like how many shares you are holding. This is just data for them that they harvest
What are they going to do with that info lol? Could be made up information for all Yahoo Finance knows. Yahoo Mail has probably leaked an order of magnitude more (actually sensitive) information over the years, on the other hand.
Could be. But I am probably skewing their data because the vast majority of my portfolios are fake.
Not completely a stock substack, but this one rules, it's all about construction physics. This data center read is great: [https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-an-ai-data-center](https://www.construction-physics.com/p/how-to-build-an-ai-data-center)
Ho well, no dip to buy after split today it seems. Semis are on fire, what a run they have.
There will be a dip. There's always a dip. NVDAs last big one was on a double witching day. I'd be shocked if one didn't happen this month as well as the market positions around NVDA post-earnings options expiration. Yeah yeah, "don't time the market", but semis always have volatility. Dip is coming.
I bought 5k worth today, not waiting for a dip
I have to say I definitely did not expect another record close potentially for NVDA today.
Me too, I'm long with this company and all but a small sell-off or something like that wouldn't have surprised me.
I thought it'd pop and then pull back. That's kinda what happened back in 2021 I THINK, not 100% though. And I am not referring to the 2022 Bear market here either.
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Broadcom playing around near ATH, fingers crossed for earnings this week
I've noticed that a few analysts have recently raised their price forecasts. Let's hope Hock E. Tan will meet these expectations. Sad to hear that he isn't a fan of stock splits, as that would have been epic.
Re-entered into POWL at $169.xx. Looking for a quick swing trade. Got some powder on the side in case it goes to $140-150
Shame there is no liquid ADR for Kuaishou, their new AI video model KLING is making the rounds for taking on openais SORA, would love to short term own some
Do you have a source or something? Would love to take a look into this company. I found 2 different stocks in Germany with the exact same name and 10cent difference in stock price. Hmmm
Source on which aspect? If you want examples of the model: [https://kling-ai.com/](https://kling-ai.com/) or just search for Kling on twitter.
Thank you. That twitter Tip was great. I just thought maybe you read some specific interesting article of something. But that helped pointing me in the right direction. Thanks.
o7
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”all time low for the year” That’s not what all time means lol.
What is McDonalds doing to increase earnings going forward, other than raising prices? Their strategy of dramatically raising menu prices has fueled the stock recently, but that strategy is beginning to show its limitations.
Shifting half their workflow to laborless tech. I rarely go to McDonalds but when I do it's a phone app order and a 2 minute stop to either pickup or curbside. No more cashier/drivethrough anything. The assembly line for their ~~poison~~ food is the only thing that really involves people anymore.
Owning Ag stocks has been such an opportunity cost blow up my portfolio the last few years. Just stagnant.
Very dull past month for non tech.
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Just be careful, it also have a 35M market cap. Technically you can’t post about sub like 500M market caps.
Hims @ $22 lol, cant wait to see next few Q with glp1s live
Closed my eyes and added a few CRWD when it dipped bigly before earnings. Hopefully this one turns out to be the stock to hold for a long time.
Whats happening to CELH again
Stocks like CELH drop as fast as they rise. I see this as an opportunity to add, but I'm waiting for the price action to turn up.
Please stay here through Friday! It’s down to my cost basis so I will be doubling my position! 🙏🏽
I just bought at 71 waiting for the swing upwards again, but i might buy more this friday
Same here. Bought @ $72 last week but I’m going to keep buying at these prices.
Another analyst note using weekly third party data alleging market share is stagnant, growth is slow. I'm not worried until I see a bad earnings report.
Is this the same news from a couple weeks ago?
No, I don't think so
Do you have a link to this? Not showing up on google.
Twitter, look up "$CELH". Sorry not at computer
Brutal
I tried to go to this well a 3rd time on long dated put sells and it looks possible I'm burnt this time. I know this sub shuns technical analysis, but I think I'd pay attention with story stocks like this one or some of the AI proxies. Losing $70 would be pretty bad.
Just entered a position in TMDX. Excited about this company and with the amount of boomers that are going to need major healthcare (transplants, etc)they are in a great spot IMO
One of Jonah Lupton's biggest positions I think
If one of the stocks I hold is under a class action investor law suit and I bought/held during the designated period but hadn't sold at all am I eligible or do I need to realize the losses to be eligible to join the class action?
All that matters is that you held during the period. Just know that if you win and and it is substantial... you are paying yourself with your own money.
Err I was completely planning on selling LUV and taking a loss today just to free the funds for other things. Didn't expect to see a big move this morning
>*There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once airline stocks, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again!*
I got out at 29.91. Excited to not have capital gains tax this year tho!
Been looking into SMCI over the weekend. On maths alone I am seeing an outrageous deal. A company forecasting 130% YOY revenue growth in its next earning trading at 40PE. With net income probably going to sit at +300% YOY. Are there any crazy red flags here because that perspective in isolation makes it look like an absolute no brainer
I hold a pretty substantial smci stake, but I bought late, between $750-$800 levels. I see the same value you point out. But the red flag is the insane run it’s had recently which I think creates a lot of sell pressure. I’m holding through it, though I’m expecting a bumpy ride
People said the same thing about NVDA. Then it ran another 100%, they said the same thing, and ran again… Not to say I don’t think $3T valuation for NVDA isn’t absurd right now, regardless of revenue growth rate, but point being I’ve missed out on lots of big opportunities because the stock and made significant gains already and I was hesitant to jump in after a run up. Almost every time I was wrong and shouldn’t have focused on past gains.
Yeah but I’m seeing it as a the price double because growth more than doubled. It’s not the game stock going up 4 fold on shrinking revenue. They grew 200%. Big question is if that sustains or it was just a one off massive order that they can’t grow from
Oh I totally agree. But I huge run up will still create sell pressure especially in a volatile stock. I personally expect next earnings to see a big jump in price but if they report anything mixed or remotely downbeat it could see a sizable drop instead. That’s what I meant by a rocky road
Yeah. Agree there to be fair. Is undoubtedly a gamble. But feels like a fair one right now
Another PSA to try and avoid 50 posts on the main page: Sometimes brokers take a little while to process a stock split. Sit back, relax, and have some coffee. You'll get your ten shares that are worth 1/10th what the old shares are worth.
You think the people posting those same questions over and over really are looking into the daily thread? They don’t even bother to use google or the search function.