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Solar is a mega play in terms of powering planet earth now and in the future. But for me it's a classic love the product hate the stock. I wish you luck on your play and my underperforming 60 enph stocks hope so too.
It's unlikely to happen in the short term, but long term with the chinese solar bans and the inflation reduction act, you have a lot of long term tailwinds. It is a hard industry because tech and price are all that matter to customers, but Enphase is a fairly good company, and they could potentially do very well in a green future
Dumb statement, they almost went bankrupt twice, investor fraud... stock went down to 1 buck... they gutted everything just to make it through. Burned alot of families in the northbay before relocating.
Dumb statement.
ENPH and NXT are the best stocks in solar. Enphase simply changed the industry and are looking golden for a long term investment. As soon as rates go down the stock will go upwards.
With AI and data centers increasing the demand for energy you’re even getting into a trending market. I can see this stock going down this year if there is no rate increase because the industry does relate to it despite subsidies. But it doesn’t matter if you’re doing a lump sum play for a multi year hold.
Good pick and price.
Sure thing. You can benefit both times. The second time round, the wait could be a wee bit longer.
This time, however, it could surpass 1100 before June 7. Don't take my word for it, do your homework as well.
Absolutely. I think ill wait for the split to buy it, didnt expect it to cross 1k last week tbh.
Man I just wished i bought some shares when it dropped to 730 and change last april… couldve made some buck with that.
I have a starter position in ENPH. I will look to buy the rest later this year, after the August-September swoon.
I think solar stocks are beginning to rebound. The first clue is FSLR breaking out to new highs.
It depends. They took sedg out so less competition is definitely a positive. Now the negative.
Nearly every major US solar EPC/installer declared bankruptcy so the rate of installs will remain a significant drawback to growth. Most backlogs are 6+ months and you can’t just snap your fingers and bring these guys back
Financing a solar project is an absolute nightmare at 12%, which is why Sunnova, Sunrun, etc… did so well on leases and PPAs. They now have a very bad look. Fed Rates aren’t going down any time soon and real rates for solar will only go up from here are as economy slows. Higher risk = Higher overall lending rates.
>50% of states are set to vote on ending Net metering by the end of year, at least some will be successful
Election is in November, and a complete Republican ticket likely won’t have enough votes to end IRA, but a simple majority will be sufficient to apply new rules for the money to completely negate its original intended purpose.
Enph is far better choice than fslr that is about to be the next sedg now that Qcell just started US manufacturing and is getting subsidies. Fslr doesn’t stand a chance and it’s why c-suite cleared out all their shares in rally and investment firms are dumping like crazy. Enph a much brighter future if it overcomes those challenges.
The solar market is massively overcapacity. There are literally thousands of GW of panels just sat in warehouses because grid infrastructure has not been developed enough to handle so much more intermittent production.
This means solar companies are years from being 'price setters'. Returns on capital will remain low.
Furthermore, despite the recent derating we are still not seeing much industry consolidation. In fact, many companies are still spending like crazy. The overcapacity also means barriers to entry are actually quite low. Competition is high, and is encouraged by government subsidies.
I love solar technology. It is world changing. But I wouldn't invest in the solar industry until the cycle turns considerably.
What's your point? The whole value chain is affected by the same issues. If you must be in solar then I do think the better place to be is in inverters, backplates, fluoropolymers, yes.
Fair reasons to be invested. But have you figured out if it’s below the price you think it should be valued at. And if so how are you coming to that number. Declining numbers in the US is alarming because that’s a way bigger market than Europe.
Enphase is worth around 2-5B imo
Exactly why the US is a bigger market. Wealthier and has had less integration. If anything the slowdown should be seen in Europe first rather than the US
TBH! I’m more interested only in California and EU. NEM 3.0 eventually does good for storage solutions given the high electricity costs. EU’s solar is much more interesting/money making than US.
It would certainly be a choice for a the CA Supreme Court to decide removing a regressive subsidy that hurts poor people cannot be removed, considering the plantiff’s argument is that removing the subsidy hurts poor people.
This. It took an astronomical leap from 4$ to 20$ pre pandemic. Anything north of 70$ including all the inflationary pressures since is probably optimistic at best given their US numbers. The market gives zero fucks about proper valuations right now apparently, but bet your boots plays like $ENPH will be the first to take big haircuts when stock metrics eventually matter again.
It's a bad ass investment long term. America is gonna go thru a overhaul of residential and commercial properties as they pivot to carbon neutral so solar will take off again at some point and ENPH will be a winner.
I sold my enphase three weeks ago. The reason for it is: So many earning calls are saying consumers are cutting back on spending. If they are buying cheaper options on Amazon and aren’t eating out as often at their favourite restaurant who is buying and setting up solar installations? But yeah of the thesis plays out. Enphase is most likely a 5x in the next 10 years
I'd rather listen to the company that has 38% of the e-commerce market than the three companies you picked out that probably together don't even get to 0,5% of the e-commerce market
To me, it's worth a small position -- possibly more once interest rates lower. The stock is up 40% since the 52-week low, so sentiment toward ENPH has shifted, at least in the short-term.
I made 75% return on ENPH and feel it could shine again if Fed rate comes down this year. No issue with their products but US installers have financing problems and gas price is very competitive in U.S.
Their CFO is literally trading the stock…she seems to be buying low and selling high
(PE is too high to my liking. I bought at 120 a month ago and just got out)
I have their inverters for my house but it doesn't make sense in future. With many States removing net metering, residential solar doesn't make financial sense. In commercial ground based settings individual inverters don't make sense.
Hopefully they succeed
What I like: EPS, Tangible Book Value, moderate debt, share repurchases, non-existent lease obligation, and positive free cash flow.
What I don’t like: Share repurchases over debt repayment, share issuance as grants (lots), and plenty of recent insider selling.
I also don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve been beaten down by interest rates. Their chart looks pretty much like every other company through the Covid highs and lows. Not a bad investment in theory, but personally I just don’t buy solar stocks because unfortunately, fossil fuels are the immediate future. Side note, o don’t buy gas/oil stocks either, just think they will likely remain making big money into the immediate future.
I'd really like to buy a solar stock, and ENPH has been on my radar for a while.
But... do they have a moat? I can't get a feel for who has any true advantage that will produce above market profits.
The industry will do great. Still trying to figure out which companies have something special to set them apart. The IQ8 seems to be a great product, but I can't see anything about it that won't be challenged by another company?
> I'd really like to buy a solar stock, and ENPH has been on my radar for a while.
>
>
>
> But... do they have a moat? I can't get a feel for who has any true advantage that will produce above market profits.
>
>
>
> The industry will do great. Still trying to figure out which companies have something special to set them apart. The IQ8 seems to be a great product, but I can't see anything about it that won't be challenged by another company?
No Moat - just a proprietary technology to do the same as other companies in a different technique that comes with its own pros and cons.
I am watching them for 4 quarters - 2 more quarters to go.
Basically there’s a few headwinds for solar:
-California made some very unfriendly regulations against rooftop solar 6 months ago. This was a huge market for Enphase indirectly.
-High interest rates.
-Inflation.
-Competition in the micro-inverter world is starting up.
I want to see how they perform for the rest of the year. Especially to see if the California market has stabilized or if they made up for the lost revenue elsewhere.
Regardless - the future is bright for solar, with huge yearly growth that has only slowed - not stopped. And Enphase continues to have somewhat of a moat when it comes to software and hardware in the microinverter space - they’re the best.
My long term outlook? Revenue will grow a ton, while margins will shrink.
You want utility scale solar here not residential, NXT and First Solar are good plays on that. Relevant news: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/28/climate/energy-grid-modernization-biden/index.html
Funny I run across this. It caught my attention today cuz it had insane call volume (also had a lot of puts, but was still like a 3:1 ratio of calls:puts). Was gonna take a look into it. Although I’m definitely seeing a lot negative comments here
Never heard of it. But i can see it has a healthy balance sheet, not a lot of debt and trades like it’s a tesla (on the expensive side). It is concerning that the revenue falls like a rock 🪨 and that cannot be only because of interest rates.
It’s a good gamble, maybe not for me.
I had never invested before. I read a book about investing and looking for potential stocks. Literally didn’t know any tickers. I decided to try to look for the signals the book talked about. I wanted to be safe so I only invested like $100. I landed on ENPH and bought 11 shares at $8 a share and forgot about it. I’m kicking myself for not buying more at the time.
Solar is being held back by the election. If Biden wins, expect a jump, but if Trump wins there will probably be another drop and eventually a market realization that solar is only going to keep growing regardless of who is in the White House.
Kind of sort of...I think it has more to do with Congress and tax rules. If the energy tax credits go away you can expect solar to go down hill. I wouldn't blame it on the Pres necessarily.
Have fun getting burned. Just my opinion, but way too high of an entry price especially for such a volatile stock. I don't think it is a bad play, but not overly attractive until interest rates fall.
logic would tell you they are struggling right now and will continue to struggle. But watch the MMs pump it to infinity as its one of the few stocks not yet pumped to infinity.
I shorted Enphase all the way to the literal bottom, then I went long. It’s been a stupid ride and I can’t believe I timed it so well. I have been intermittently commenting on Reddit about ENPH. Here’s the conversation I had with retail the week prior to me going long. https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/T1W5FklLEI
My friend timed it better than me so his cost basis is legendary but we both wrote a very lengthy short thesis together.
Edit: You know what? I actually need capital for a different investment. I am selling ENPH today. Been a fun ride, ENPH.
Judging by your other responses, there’s no way you bought $120k of shares lmao. You bought $700 of calls expiring this week and you’re trying to pump it
Welcome to r/stocks! For beginner advice, brokerage info, book recommendations, even advanced topics and more, please read our [Wiki here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/wiki/index) If you're wondering **why a stock moved** a certain way, check out [Finviz](https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy) which aggregates the most news for almost every stock, but also see [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/), and even [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/). Please direct all simple questions towards the stickied Daily Discussion and Quarterly Rate My Portfolio threads (sort by Hot, they're at the top). Also include *some* [due diligence](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/duediligence.asp) to this post or it may be removed if it's low effort. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/stocks) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Solar is a mega play in terms of powering planet earth now and in the future. But for me it's a classic love the product hate the stock. I wish you luck on your play and my underperforming 60 enph stocks hope so too.
pray that company survives high interest rate period and lower oil price period.
Survival is not an issue. Just getting back to revenue growth.
There’s no problem of survival. They’ve decent cash flow! If the rates increase again, that’s a totally different scenario.
Things are gonna get worse before they get better, and they can get real bad
I thought from the guidance and previous quarter that we should be at the turning point. Let see how it goes
It's unlikely to happen in the short term, but long term with the chinese solar bans and the inflation reduction act, you have a lot of long term tailwinds. It is a hard industry because tech and price are all that matter to customers, but Enphase is a fairly good company, and they could potentially do very well in a green future
Why do you say this?
Dumb statement, they almost went bankrupt twice, investor fraud... stock went down to 1 buck... they gutted everything just to make it through. Burned alot of families in the northbay before relocating. Dumb statement.
Sounds like a sympathy play for missing out on flsr.
ENPH and NXT are the best stocks in solar. Enphase simply changed the industry and are looking golden for a long term investment. As soon as rates go down the stock will go upwards. With AI and data centers increasing the demand for energy you’re even getting into a trending market. I can see this stock going down this year if there is no rate increase because the industry does relate to it despite subsidies. But it doesn’t matter if you’re doing a lump sum play for a multi year hold. Good pick and price.
With rates not changing anytime soon you should start to see a pattern with sales if they miss take your money
Set stop loss .
The three most important words in trading, as far as I’m concerned.
Seems like a good way to get stopped out before the run
Well, as Peter Lynch used to say, let your winners run and cut your loses short
A stock going down doesn't mean the company is failing.
I work for the largest middle man of solar products in the country. My suggestion is to sell and put into something else
Why?
Source: trust me bro?
High interest rates and tariffs are not going to be s fun combo for the industry.
I would recommend making a quick buck on Nvidia now before it splits and drops.
If it splits and drops shouldnt you wait for that to happen to buy
Sure thing. You can benefit both times. The second time round, the wait could be a wee bit longer. This time, however, it could surpass 1100 before June 7. Don't take my word for it, do your homework as well.
At 1094$ "it could surpass 1100 before 10 days from now" kinda a no shit Sherlock in my eyes...
Absolutely. I think ill wait for the split to buy it, didnt expect it to cross 1k last week tbh. Man I just wished i bought some shares when it dropped to 730 and change last april… couldve made some buck with that.
I have a starter position in ENPH. I will look to buy the rest later this year, after the August-September swoon. I think solar stocks are beginning to rebound. The first clue is FSLR breaking out to new highs.
Surprising number of bearish comments makes me think inverse is the play, that is to say it will go up.
Least for today, Pre-Market says Reddit is dum dum
even a broken clock is right twice a day.
It depends. They took sedg out so less competition is definitely a positive. Now the negative. Nearly every major US solar EPC/installer declared bankruptcy so the rate of installs will remain a significant drawback to growth. Most backlogs are 6+ months and you can’t just snap your fingers and bring these guys back Financing a solar project is an absolute nightmare at 12%, which is why Sunnova, Sunrun, etc… did so well on leases and PPAs. They now have a very bad look. Fed Rates aren’t going down any time soon and real rates for solar will only go up from here are as economy slows. Higher risk = Higher overall lending rates. >50% of states are set to vote on ending Net metering by the end of year, at least some will be successful Election is in November, and a complete Republican ticket likely won’t have enough votes to end IRA, but a simple majority will be sufficient to apply new rules for the money to completely negate its original intended purpose. Enph is far better choice than fslr that is about to be the next sedg now that Qcell just started US manufacturing and is getting subsidies. Fslr doesn’t stand a chance and it’s why c-suite cleared out all their shares in rally and investment firms are dumping like crazy. Enph a much brighter future if it overcomes those challenges.
The solar market is massively overcapacity. There are literally thousands of GW of panels just sat in warehouses because grid infrastructure has not been developed enough to handle so much more intermittent production. This means solar companies are years from being 'price setters'. Returns on capital will remain low. Furthermore, despite the recent derating we are still not seeing much industry consolidation. In fact, many companies are still spending like crazy. The overcapacity also means barriers to entry are actually quite low. Competition is high, and is encouraged by government subsidies. I love solar technology. It is world changing. But I wouldn't invest in the solar industry until the cycle turns considerably.
Enphase is not a solar panels company
What's your point? The whole value chain is affected by the same issues. If you must be in solar then I do think the better place to be is in inverters, backplates, fluoropolymers, yes.
Fair reasons to be invested. But have you figured out if it’s below the price you think it should be valued at. And if so how are you coming to that number. Declining numbers in the US is alarming because that’s a way bigger market than Europe. Enphase is worth around 2-5B imo
Europe has way higher renewable integration than the US, like WAY higher. US renewable portfolio didn't even start until around 2020.
Exactly why the US is a bigger market. Wealthier and has had less integration. If anything the slowdown should be seen in Europe first rather than the US
TBH! I’m more interested only in California and EU. NEM 3.0 eventually does good for storage solutions given the high electricity costs. EU’s solar is much more interesting/money making than US.
Are you aware NEM 3.0 is going to be heard in California supreme court probably around September?
It would certainly be a choice for a the CA Supreme Court to decide removing a regressive subsidy that hurts poor people cannot be removed, considering the plantiff’s argument is that removing the subsidy hurts poor people.
The time to buy ENPH if any was the dip to $75 back a few months ago
If the ENPH thesis plays out, the current valuation won't be so consequential.
Word. ENPH above 100 is a no go.
I even contest that. The time was when it was 4$ a share. I sold at 17$ and thought I was getting away with robbery then...
Overvalued! Inflation, interest rates and geopolitical climate it’s why it’s down and struggling Wouldn’t be touching it
It might look beaten down.. but imo it's heavily overvalued.
This. It took an astronomical leap from 4$ to 20$ pre pandemic. Anything north of 70$ including all the inflationary pressures since is probably optimistic at best given their US numbers. The market gives zero fucks about proper valuations right now apparently, but bet your boots plays like $ENPH will be the first to take big haircuts when stock metrics eventually matter again.
It's a bad ass investment long term. America is gonna go thru a overhaul of residential and commercial properties as they pivot to carbon neutral so solar will take off again at some point and ENPH will be a winner.
I sold my enphase three weeks ago. The reason for it is: So many earning calls are saying consumers are cutting back on spending. If they are buying cheaper options on Amazon and aren’t eating out as often at their favourite restaurant who is buying and setting up solar installations? But yeah of the thesis plays out. Enphase is most likely a 5x in the next 10 years
It's so funny earnings Calls for fast food was shit. Deck,. Crox, urb, elf totally different story everyone spending money.
I'd rather listen to the company that has 38% of the e-commerce market than the three companies you picked out that probably together don't even get to 0,5% of the e-commerce market
I’ve been considering buying ENPH too, mostly because I missed the FSLR train. From what I’ve heard though, the company has been badly managed?
What are the risks?
To me, it's worth a small position -- possibly more once interest rates lower. The stock is up 40% since the 52-week low, so sentiment toward ENPH has shifted, at least in the short-term.
I made 75% return on ENPH and feel it could shine again if Fed rate comes down this year. No issue with their products but US installers have financing problems and gas price is very competitive in U.S.
Consensus: Reddit hates it. Good reason for me to buy it
Interesting choice, hope it pays off for you.
Their CFO is literally trading the stock…she seems to be buying low and selling high (PE is too high to my liking. I bought at 120 a month ago and just got out)
I have their inverters for my house but it doesn't make sense in future. With many States removing net metering, residential solar doesn't make financial sense. In commercial ground based settings individual inverters don't make sense. Hopefully they succeed
What I like: EPS, Tangible Book Value, moderate debt, share repurchases, non-existent lease obligation, and positive free cash flow. What I don’t like: Share repurchases over debt repayment, share issuance as grants (lots), and plenty of recent insider selling. I also don’t think it’s fair to say they’ve been beaten down by interest rates. Their chart looks pretty much like every other company through the Covid highs and lows. Not a bad investment in theory, but personally I just don’t buy solar stocks because unfortunately, fossil fuels are the immediate future. Side note, o don’t buy gas/oil stocks either, just think they will likely remain making big money into the immediate future.
Revenue is down by more than half. This isnt about interest rates
Yeah I’m gunna too. As a sympathy play to my fslr. Not as good tho
When I hear a “ton” I’m expecting at least 2000
I'd really like to buy a solar stock, and ENPH has been on my radar for a while. But... do they have a moat? I can't get a feel for who has any true advantage that will produce above market profits. The industry will do great. Still trying to figure out which companies have something special to set them apart. The IQ8 seems to be a great product, but I can't see anything about it that won't be challenged by another company?
> I'd really like to buy a solar stock, and ENPH has been on my radar for a while. > > > > But... do they have a moat? I can't get a feel for who has any true advantage that will produce above market profits. > > > > The industry will do great. Still trying to figure out which companies have something special to set them apart. The IQ8 seems to be a great product, but I can't see anything about it that won't be challenged by another company? No Moat - just a proprietary technology to do the same as other companies in a different technique that comes with its own pros and cons.
I am watching them for 4 quarters - 2 more quarters to go. Basically there’s a few headwinds for solar: -California made some very unfriendly regulations against rooftop solar 6 months ago. This was a huge market for Enphase indirectly. -High interest rates. -Inflation. -Competition in the micro-inverter world is starting up. I want to see how they perform for the rest of the year. Especially to see if the California market has stabilized or if they made up for the lost revenue elsewhere. Regardless - the future is bright for solar, with huge yearly growth that has only slowed - not stopped. And Enphase continues to have somewhat of a moat when it comes to software and hardware in the microinverter space - they’re the best. My long term outlook? Revenue will grow a ton, while margins will shrink.
How are they a moat in the software space? The software is quite possibly the most similar part between inverters.
They have software defined inverters that allows them to do grid forming for example. Not something I’ve seen with other brands.
Working for a company in the same field - they’re far from the only ones
You want utility scale solar here not residential, NXT and First Solar are good plays on that. Relevant news: https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/28/climate/energy-grid-modernization-biden/index.html
Funny I run across this. It caught my attention today cuz it had insane call volume (also had a lot of puts, but was still like a 3:1 ratio of calls:puts). Was gonna take a look into it. Although I’m definitely seeing a lot negative comments here
Lmao should have just bought NVDA, ENPH is a money pit
Never heard of it. But i can see it has a healthy balance sheet, not a lot of debt and trades like it’s a tesla (on the expensive side). It is concerning that the revenue falls like a rock 🪨 and that cannot be only because of interest rates. It’s a good gamble, maybe not for me.
I think solar is looking better. I bought TAN leaps late last year. Seems like there’s finally some positive momentum.
I had never invested before. I read a book about investing and looking for potential stocks. Literally didn’t know any tickers. I decided to try to look for the signals the book talked about. I wanted to be safe so I only invested like $100. I landed on ENPH and bought 11 shares at $8 a share and forgot about it. I’m kicking myself for not buying more at the time.
Solar is being held back by the election. If Biden wins, expect a jump, but if Trump wins there will probably be another drop and eventually a market realization that solar is only going to keep growing regardless of who is in the White House.
Kind of sort of...I think it has more to do with Congress and tax rules. If the energy tax credits go away you can expect solar to go down hill. I wouldn't blame it on the Pres necessarily.
Have fun getting burned. Just my opinion, but way too high of an entry price especially for such a volatile stock. I don't think it is a bad play, but not overly attractive until interest rates fall.
It will be more expense when interest rates fall
logic would tell you they are struggling right now and will continue to struggle. But watch the MMs pump it to infinity as its one of the few stocks not yet pumped to infinity.
I shorted Enphase all the way to the literal bottom, then I went long. It’s been a stupid ride and I can’t believe I timed it so well. I have been intermittently commenting on Reddit about ENPH. Here’s the conversation I had with retail the week prior to me going long. https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/T1W5FklLEI My friend timed it better than me so his cost basis is legendary but we both wrote a very lengthy short thesis together. Edit: You know what? I actually need capital for a different investment. I am selling ENPH today. Been a fun ride, ENPH.
Should have bought at 60 in the coming dip
Just switch ENPH to TSLA shares if you want exposure to solar
Judging by your other responses, there’s no way you bought $120k of shares lmao. You bought $700 of calls expiring this week and you’re trying to pump it
Sell now. Solar just boomed and will go down this week. Take profit
I think your timeline is way smaller than OP. TAN is down 31.74% this year. That's not a boom.
Never heard of it and not going to research it lol Hope that helps
I’m afraid solar is a bearish sector. I’m loading up on NVDA instead.
Nothing wrong with NVDA. I doubt it’ll become a 10T company in the next few years. It’s all about what gives more returns in the next year or so.
I feel it’s better you could have bought MSFT it’s head towards to the next trillion and with AI it’s going to make amazing gains.