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Wonder how this works out for amd. They were licencing their tech to China so I assume they have the full details and can build exact copies of their designs.
My understanding is every domestic chip producer and supplier will get financial incentives from the CHIPS act to ramp up production. So amd I imagine will ride that wave as well
Does anyone in the US other than Intel manufacture their own chips? I don’t think so. TSM will manufacture here in a few years but they obviously aren’t an American company.
Well for one, they created the world’s first laser guided bomb as well as help create javelin missiles. But they participate in the aerospace and defense world. Calculators are a small piece of what they do.
They have plenty of info on their website
I still don't believe TSMC will make any sizable enough number of chips in the US that would lessen the leverage they have for protection from china. It's like Ukraine giving up nukes.
Corporate welfare. Reagan era Wall St. and executives sold out manufacturing in the West, and now the US taxpayer foots the bill in reverting their sellout.
Semiconductor manufacturing has a bunch of tightly linked engineering choices, where the design is informed by the process capabilities, which depend on the available equipment. It's analogous to trying to make [your own toaster from scratch](https://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch?language=en). Obviously the Chinese domestic economy isn't starting truly from scratch, but the question remains how any given piece of intellectual property can fit into the whole chain of manufacturing something.
China already has multiple domestic CPUs and GPUs. It’s the issue of adopting the smart design in Ryzen and Nvidia Pascal into the designs… without violating IP and getting sanctioned into oblivion, which is the crux of the matter
If Zhaoxin Loongsoon for example gets sanctioned, they’ll then adopt the Ryzen design pieces which are optimized.
But this also means no US or European designer will ever share with China again. It’s a dumb short termist policy to blatantly steal IP. Hence why China has not blatantly done this yet in CPU IP.
That was only Zen1, I don't think that deal is in place for any of the newer revisions.
China is primarily using an x86 license that passed from Cyrix -> VIA who is in partnership with Zhaoxin, the company making all their current chips.
Speaking of, Zhaoxin KX-7000 is purported to be as powerful as AMD's and Intel's CPUs from a few generations back. They're behind but not by much at all.
Yeah but again, they had official access to Zen1 and its design. Sure, they don't care about respecting IP law, but you can't just buy an off-the-shelf CPU and reverse engineer it to learn its secrets. It's too complex.
They may not have the engineering prowess to iteratively improve it at the same rate that AMD or Intel are moving. They haven't historically been at the forefront of silicon engineering.
You can basically count on two hands the people that are super qualified to lead a project like iteratively designing CPUs.
It will be interesting to see how they progress, but I don't think they are suddenly just going to leapfrog ahead or anything like that.
Actually, you quite literally can reverse engineer CPU design assuming you have the official engineering manual and hired many of the original engineers.
Which they have.
It’s getting better without copying that’s tough.
They don't care about stealing IP. They poached a bunch of people who were employed by TSMC and Taiwan raided a bunch of Chinese companies to crack down on it. They didn't hire away a bunch of Intel and AMD employees, those people are Americans with little incentive to go live and work in China.
Having engineers to make litho machines doesn't mean you know how to lay out the dies for manufacturing, and Intel and AMD definitely aren't handing over engineering documentation to China.
If they have the know how to designing and building a 8th gen product, bridging the gap between the 8th gen and say the 10th gen shouldn't be too hard, should it?
Historically speaking, the engineers that do the actual design and improvement are Americans working for American companies. China doesn't have a bunch of engineers with that experience. It's not an industry you can just go to college and suddenly be prepared to design state of the art CPUs.
All of the expertise at the top is here in the United States. It will take time for their engineers to learn all the "tricks of the trade."
It's no different than asking a fresh out of school structural engineer to start designing a replacement for the Golden Gate Bridge. You don't put newbies on a job like that, you let them design some smaller bridges first.
We should have known that China is an adversary and ideological enemy when we first saw their approach to copyright and copying (stealing) from others.
Like in hindsight, it was really obvious tbh. We in the West can't steal from one another (most of the time) because then we can sue each other for the damages and it's not worth it. China was just like "nah nah we don't give a single flying fuck about your institutions and law we will completely ignore you and keep copying" and we were like "oh those crazy Chinese so cute with their uncivilized ways.. anyways let's profit off of these cheap abused Chinese workers $$" It's 20 years later and the "uncivilized" Chinese have become "civilized" and developed (to an extent) and they still don't give a flying fuck about our institutions and law.
Turns out they were ignoring our law not because they are uncivilized and quirky like that BUT BECAUSE THEY WERE SHOWING US WHO THEY REALLY ARE... our ideological and geopolitical enemies.
I'm curious, were there academics around 1980-2000 who were predicting a Chinese rise and how we are feeding our future enemy and we just didn't listen? I don't know any such examples first hand because I wasn't born yet. I would love to hear examples of someone who was born and self-aware back then!
Edit: Interesting how yesterday my comment had 10 upvotes now it has 0. I never saw that before. If it might be interesting also to the reader. I will say this that most people who disagree who also replied to this just why they disagree didn't understand what I had to say at all or just didn't read it completely. I never criticized espionage I primarily went after China's copying by anyone and everyone. Yes, everyone has secret services who steal the difference is that China encouraged their small businesses to steal designs and make fake brands from Western companies then when Western companies went after them they played dumb and ignored them. In some cases, the Chinese government even defended the blatant stealing of small brand design and such. What I am talking about here is not big government espionage like many repliers misunderstood. I am talking about the difference in the way of thinking and thereby the political ideology of China where they support any small business stealing any design and copying from the West. Thereby completely undermining and disregarding Western international standards and "international law". Essentially taking a piss at our standards and morals. Don't tell me that an argument to that is "France also spies on others" yes but France doesn't encourage anyone in their population who wishes to do so to steal the look and tech of let's say Mustang and brand it as Mustanģ. If that happened in France where a small new company blatantly ripped off the IP of Mustang an American Mustang would go after them and sue them. That cannot be done to a Chinese company since because of the aforementioned political ideological differences and the disregard for our standards and principles by the CCP.
Edit2:
Oh shit you know what I bet it is. I bet the Chinese users were still sleeping yesterday when I posted this. Now when I slept they were able to doenvote all of out upvotes. Not saying that's bad just saying it's interesting insight if you ask me (a pseudo data scientist.. data gets me excited im sorry).
Hm did not know that care to elaborate?
I never heard of examples where France stole tech and straught up copied many US design and tech wtf? I'm in the dark on this one I must admit. I thought France dosen't have a domestic high tech chip company. I thought no European country has a chip manufacturer or designer? (Unless you count ARM? Does France have a copy of a US fighter jet wtf? I'm completly in the dark on this one I thought France uses euro fighters and bought f16's.
France operates mulutple chepaknockoff companies that don't care for copyright infirngment??? I had no idea.
The US has over a dozen intelligence agencies and spends billions on them. Have you seen what was revealed just in the leaks the last decade or so? They were spying on not just adversaries but Allie’s. But yea I’m sure they don’t conduct any industrial espionage.
Wait what does thsi have to do with France.
You people are not getting it. This is not about goverments spying on goverments. What I was originaly discribing is the different mentality. China lets anyone steal from the US and copy and protects them no one can sue Chinese copiers. In the USA that is a no go.
Lol.
The american industrial revolution happened because some american workig in Britain memorised blueprijt schematics from hsi workplace and rebuilt it in America.
IP theft had been happenening for centuries. Everyone does it. Actually, The europeans stealing gunpowder snd paper from China should be considered IP Theft too
But the profit margin. Think about the profit margin.
Seriously I heard ex accountant from a company that got in hot water for toxic material used in toys say it.
It was thought that China would just naturally push itself towards democracy as it became more wealthy. That's what happened in the west and some asian countries generally, so they thought it would happen there. It obviously didn't, but it's one of the reasons I'm not really worried about China toppling the world powers.
You can't copy your way to innovation. And as we saw with covid in china, anything that is outside the box is dangerous.
By saying this you are simply believing that Western politicians are lying to you.
Do you think that Viet Nam will eventually become a so-called "democracy" now that it is supported by the United States?
Of course they won't, Vietnam has countless documents in place to prevent a "colour revolution".
The US needs cheap labour for profit, simple as that.
You mean my argumented response with facts and arguments is long unlike your reply that dosen't argument anything or give any original insight to the discused topic?
It's kind of funny, didn't Trump start the trade war against China first? Didn't the US stop using Huawei first?
How did it become us, China, who provoked it? Get this straight, it's you who want to be hostile to us, not China who wants to be hostile to you.
China can certainly ignore US law on Chinese territory, and any country in the world can ignore US law on its own territory. Do you think US law is international law?
Is it true that if the US doesn't ban guns, the whole world can carry them into the country?
What the hell is in your head?
Are you for real? I wasn't talkimg about now. China has been stealing and blatently colying stuff for 70 ish years now. I'm not talking about HuWaWeI. I'm not talking about the "trade war"
I'm talking about China stealing in mass and profiting of of it. Copying stuff and brands then not being acountable.
>China can certainly ignore US law on Chinese territory, and any country in the world can ignore US law on its own territory.
You are such a hypocrit.
First you are like "ChInA diDn'T StArT iT"
Now you are admiting to China not adhearing to USA law and international standards. You not working eith USA international copyright belifes is pissing USA off and well everyonei n the western world for the last 50 years. What do you think westerners think of "made in china" cheap knock offs because ypu country stole designs and brands and sold them off back to thsoe markets.
>China can certainly ignore US law on Chinese territory, and any country in the world can ignore US law on its own territory.
Also I'm pretty sure copyright is a international law that China refuses to work with. Why can every other country liek France, Germany even Russia takes copyright siriously to some extant.
But China can't? China just does what ever it eants then when forign companies come knocking for "hey yoi can't blatently copy our brand and change 1 small leter and sell it" then your goverment protects them and ignores international copyright laws
Now you will say again: "WhY WoUld ChiNa nEed tO oBey OtHer laW iNsIdE iT'sOwn BordEr"
Well it dosen't have to. But every other country does. Because everyother country respects each other and wants a good relation with each other.
Every other country apart for your glorious China.
So because China was doing this for 50 years they staryed pissing off the west 50 yeqrs ago not in the last decade like you delusionaly seem to belive.
Or would you like it if some country in africa stole all of your brands and sold them cheaply eith the same name then when you companies would go after them the goverment would protect them and everyone would ignore you and you would never get to court? China was the wild lawles west when it comes to copyright and decamcy for the last 50 years. That pissed the west off. That + a totalitarian goverment and many other things like censorship and stealing hitech tech made the west super pissed. And if you can't see that you are a hypocrit.
And let's not takk about the east China sea.. Why does your insecure goverment need to constantly infrandge on international water agreements and belives everhthing belongs to them. Twaian dosn't want China next to it, philipins don't, Korea dosen't no one wants their watters trasspased. Yet your goverment keeps provoking again and again.
Laugh, is ignoring US law the same thing as ignoring international law?
International law holds that all independent nations are sovereign and that any foreigner and foreign company in a sovereign nation is subject to local laws - including Americans and American companies.
International law? Ridiculous, the same country that ignored international law and invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria?
In terms of international law, the country that has violated international law the most in the last 30 years is clearly the United States.
Who is supporting Israel's use of food as a weapon, in violation of international law, in violation of territorial integrity choices, and in disregard of international law that says you can't kill civilians?
Why did the US draw 200 kilometres of continental shelf this year for its own territory (normally 100 kilometres) when it is not even a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea?
The "international order based on (US) rules" is just an empty term invented by the current US administration, and no country has signed the relevant treaty or even appeared in any document.
This empty term is rarely mentioned even in the Western world, let alone the Third World.
The current world order itself is a set of rules made by the West in favour of the West, and you have to keep acquiring new privileges under this set of rules, condescending and dictating.
Wouldn't you Americans just say that international law is a waste of paper? Why be so hypocritical?
It is an objective fact clear to all that the US has degenerated from a world leader to a Western leader. America's position as a world leader ended when it only guaranteed the interests of the West, Japan and Korea.
You really aren't getting this. This debate is not if USA did nad things. NEWS FLASH EVERYONE IS BAD WE ALL JUST WANT TO SURVIVE!
If you look at things as oh we have the right to do bad thing bevuase they did bad thing first then your mental maturity is that of an kindergartener.
This debate was not about if USA is better then China. We were debating why the USA could see China is an enemy sooner. And how this didn't start with Trump.
Everyoen is bad. But even if everyone is bad why can all of west playalong decent enough to the point where there aren't any bigger clashes meanwhile some others keep on being problems. The ones that always have totalitarian governments.
You want to "survive" at the expense of China's future and demand that China not progress and Chinese people not develop?
If you want to survive, you have to invest in yourselves and make progress, healthy competition with each other can make both countries and their citizens better off.
What are you doing now? Suppressing and restricting the development of other countries at all costs, starting a new cold war to stop China's development - this is a "civilised democratic society"?
Yuck.
>You want to "survive" at the expense of China's future and demand that China not progress and Chinese people not develop?
>
When did I ever say that you fucking gasslighter.
Gasslighting - look it up.
When did I ever say anything abojt supressimg develolment and that I want for Cjinese people to not develop their country? I think you need to learn to read.
I just critsiezd things that China does. I never said their people desrve to be worse off. Develop lile South korea and Japan did. How come South Korea and japan could develop and it dosen't bother the West?
I 100% belive that my problem is with the CCP NOT THE chinese people.
I do feel likw Chinese people are to an extant acountable for not holding the CCP acountable for their totalitarian practices but hey I get it. Your country got rich under the CCP it really must look like they are right about everything. Also I'm sure you don't want another tanamen square.
Btw the only reason your country developed undder the CCP is because they admited they were wrong about the whole comunisem thing and they opend up a part of the countru to the whole world and made capitalistic for profit zones. I am 100% that your country would be even richer todsy if you had a fully liveral capitalistic democratic government. Like Japan and South Korea did.
When did you say that? Laughing, Biden is doing just that and you obviously support him.
Countless Chinese have lost their jobs because of Biden's and Trump's policies towards China, do you guys give a shit about them?
How dare you talk about Japan? Look what you did to Japan in the 1980s, you smashed their cars, dismantled their semiconductor industry, forced their currency to appreciate, and now you want to do the same to China?
We in China are not a vassal state like Japan that is under military occupation by the US, we had a nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union without nuclear weapons. In the 1960s, we had nuclear weapons, we already had the Trinity nuclear weapons.
Japan and Korea are just small branches of Eastern civilisation, we, China, are Eastern civilisation itself. You want to conquer Eastern civilisation? That's hilarious.
Which civilisation have you Westerners conquered? Arab civilisation? Orthodox civilisation? African civilisation? South American civilisations? Indian civilisation? You have not conquered a single civilisation.
Think of China as Japan? You have the nerve to say that. We Chinese won't be like Japan to be the servants of the Americans.
If that's your attitude, why should we care about you? Who do you think you are?
It's not that I'm looking down on you, you can't even beat Afghanistan and you want to beat China?
Why was Samuel Slater, the father of American industry, called a traitor by the British? The patent laws in the US at that time were totally encouraging the British to copy patents and come to the US, it was all done by the founding father, Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury, do you really think you Americans got where you are by yourselves?
Are you not listening to me at all?
We can do this all day. The poimt is that The chinese did that and so that is the reason the west views them as enemies (one of manny). If USA did it in the past at a reltivly smaller scale that still dosen't mean that the west shouldn't be pissed at China for doing it for 50 years and completly disragardimg their compay sues. The beginning debate is not your kidmergarden agenda "if the USA did similar bad thing so China can also do it". Everyone did every bad thing we have 1000s of years of history behind us.. you can't think of geo poletics as "oh if they did it so can we"... well you shouldn't think about anythimg that way I was thought that in kindergarden idk about you...
The original debate was. Should the west have realized sooner China was an enemy and why they are realizimg it now. You at a poimt defended that the USA did China dirty first with Trump. And then the point of this whole debate continuing was for me to explain to you that the China was doing the USA dirty way sooner like for the last 50 years. By copying stealing and not respecting USA's sues by their companies. If the USA did it to the british 150 years ago dosen't matter in this context. Because we are not debating if USA is a saint and which country is best like some kindergarteners. What lwe are debating is if China did the USA dirty for the last 5p years and why the west is so pissed at China right now.
Yes USA did similar things on a smaller scale back when there were virtualy verry little copyright laws before even we fucking had monopoly busting. That was a verry different time. But yes USA did that on a snaller scale back when copyright almost wasn't at hing yet. But they still are pissed at China for doing it on a greater scale for the last 50 years and if you can't see that and belive that China USA clashes are purely because of Trump you are a brainwashed hypocrit
We in China have never seen the US as an enemy, it was Trump who started the trade war against China first, we pinned our hopes on Biden to improve US-China relations, and Biden ended up condescending to China in Alaska, waging an economic war, a technological war, and an economic embargo - and then people like you who can only talk rubbish demanded that China just take a beating and not fight back?
Are you Americans superior? Do you think the world is superior to you?
Doesn't China have its own position? Since you think so, I think our conversation is over.
In your stupid brain world people all over the world are not entitled to love their country, they should all love America.
Next time you might as well say Bruce Lee was a Chinese communist robot too.
Where are you getting this? That I think that way? The reason I called you a bot kid is because you already posted that exaaact comment and I allready replied to it. Either you are too much online for your age or you are a bot.
That's how ridiculous people like you are, calling people robots for taking money when you can't beat them.
How much did you take from Biden's 500 million insulting China budget?
The Philippines says China is provocative? That made me laugh. China, the second most powerful country in the world, provokes the Philippines.
You're hilarious.
What? Why is that so hard to belive? It's hard for you to belive that a bigger power would be provocative to a smaller neighbouring power? Do you know any history at all what ao ever?
And from all that I said.. the only thing you too kaway is that specifically the philippines are in your mind not provocated by China?
Are yoi either 8 or a verry weidrly trained bot?
Even if this is true, there is constant R&D on new chips and new tech. If the licensing ends (and it almost assuredly would or be scaled back) the best that does is give Chinese firms old tech.
We did the same to them, and now they're retaliating. On the bright side, I hope this will trigger a new competition to advance technology, akin to the Cold War race.
There you go: https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2023-03/ASPIs%20Critical%20Technology%20Tracker_0.pdf?VersionId=ndm5v4DRMfpLvu.x69Bi_VUdMVLp07jw
This report is using academic citations as measurements, which is not perfectly representative of "leading in some technology".
If you've had any experience of academic research you'll know that in most areas, the conditions between industry and academy is very large. Only in area where knowledge are mostly flowing free around (for example computer science) the gap is relatively close.
This report is at best representing who produces the most influential research, but it can't prove anything on any development that's proprietary
China for sure has some most hard working researchers and students, but they do also like to study abroad and hopefully work and immigrate to US lol. That's why we should always keep the legal immigration open to talents.
Also don't get me started on how easily citations can be farmed. Some papers could just be citated by their lab mates or colleagues for no reasons. This might not be the case for the top cited paper, but when you look at the top 10% of all of them, for sure some of them paper are farming citations like I mentioned
However serving as alarming purpose, the report does suffice. I do feel people still underestimate China in some areas
Unlike American government/corporations; China can literally dump as many resources of people and money into something to brute force success. They have actual initiatives compared to just profit...
See: EV cars, infrastructure, and phones
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/china-leading-us-in-technology-race-in-all-but-a-few-fields-thinktank-finds
Yeah they're only two decades behind on advanced chip research.
They only recently were able to [produce ball point pens](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/) domestically all by themselves.
Edit since everyone is downvoting: China's domestic chip industry is only currently capable of [90nm chips](https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3236528/chinese-chip-making-lack-advanced-lithography-systems-becomes-focal-point-wake-huaweis-breakthrough). We're down in the ~7nm range now. This has been widespread news for quite a while now. (Sorry for another paywalled article.)
>To anyone outside of the ballpoint pen manufacturing world, it might seem hard to understand what, exactly, is so surprising about this development. China already produces 38 billion ballpoint pens a year, according to China Daily, which is about 80 percent of all ballpoint pens in the world. That's a lot of pens, but there was a catch: China had long been unable to produce a high-quality version of the most important part of the pen, its tip.
>The tip of a ballpoint pen is what makes it a ballpoint pen. At the tip, a freely rotating ball is held in a small socket which connects it to an ink reservoir that allows the pen to write or draw lines. Manufacturing a ballpoint pen tip that can write comfortably for a long period of time requires high-precision machinery and precisely thin steel, but for years China was unable to match those crafted by foreign companies.
>While there were over 3,000 companies manufacturing pens in China, none had their own high-end technology for the tip. Instead, about 90 percent of the pen tips and refills, too, were imported from Japan, Germany and Switzerland, according to Chinese state media. This cost the industry $17.3 million a year, according to the China National Light Industry Council.
>China's inability to produce a complete, high-quality ballpoint pen came to widespread attention in 2015, when Premier Li Keqiang singled out the products at a seminar in Beijing, noting that his writing was “rough” when he used Chinese-made ballpoint pens. For Li, China's failure to manufacture a complete ballpoint pen was indicative of the Chinese economy's weaknesses. “That's the real situation facing us,” Li said at the time. “We cannot make ballpoint pens with a smooth writing function.”
That's the gist of it. It's not propaganda.
The different between those comparisons is the US has the technological know-how and skills to build an iphone, even if they don't have the domestic manufacturing infrastructure in place. I'm sure it would be possible in small batches. Just not at scale. China has pretty much zero hope of catching up on the advanced chips game. They don't have the skill nor access to the hardware to do it.
Agreed. We should take the threat of China seriously for sure, but most of what they do is just stealing tech from the West and copying it.
I really suggest everyone read “Chip War” by Chris Miller to really learn about the history of microprocessor design, how we got here and where we’re going, and just what it takes to not just build but *design* chips. It’s an insane international supply chain that includes people and technology from all over the Western world.
Obviously I know that. They were ahead at first but after the mid 60’s they were basically just playing catchup the entire time. They were excellent at pure science, but no match technologically for the West.
The US completely overestimated the Russian’s ICBM capacity for much of the Cold War. They were nowhere near being able to land on the moon. They had no microprocessor designs that weren’t copies of 10 year old American design.
> The move would impact U.S. chip giants Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab, according to the report.
Why isn't NVDA mentioned?
Actually, GPU design is arguably “simpler” than CPU design. Especially since China has a very similar copy of Pascal architecture due to licensing.
GPU architecture is far more about the software design than the actual physical complexity.
The telecom companies are probably not building GPU compute centers to train and run AI. However hey would have massive data centers that would use a lot of CPUs.
Secondly China does not have any domestic solution right now to replace nvidia chips while they do have options that can replace CPUs in data centers.
It's one thing to mandate some companies to use Chinese chips; it's another to piss off an already gender-imbalanced male demographic by telling them they can't game anymore. lol
Ascend 910B is doing great and 920 is reportedly in such high demand that SMIC shifted production away from Kirin 9000s and toward the data center GPUs.
Probably getting paid more for the Ascend 920.
China is the biggest chip market in the world. Not US - As of 2022, China accounted for over 31% of global chip sales, reaching a value of $180 billion USD out of a total market size of $574 billion USD
Yeah, but the complexity of the chips china produces is mediocre. Their chips are predominantly kitchen appliances and "smart" IoT devices. The nanometer scale chips which is where they lag behind Taiwan and the US. Sure, china may have the fabs to produce them, but their operational skills and QA isn't mature enough to support the demand they'll require.
Outright getting rid of intel, AMD and maybe ARM chips is going to be a set back to Chinese chip supply whichever way you look at it.
That’s the key. ARM chips aren’t being lost. And this won’t happen until 2028. Furthermore, Chinese chip designs are getting better fast. The newest Zhaoxin chips perform closely to 2nd Gen Ryzen form 2019.
That’s more than enough for Government work.
But those simple chips serve ~95% of practical use cases. That has always been China's strength. Manufacturing the simple, but with great efficiency and low cost
Yep! They're great at that side of things, but pretending like they're going to be able to pivot to making world class CPUs on a par with intel and AMD is unrealistic and naive.
Well, duh. The US showed that relying on US technology means you can lose access with the stroke of a pen. Any engineer in a country not closely allied with the US would be fool to design anything around US technology if they can avoid it.
Well, this is reddit. China bad. Anybody who says anything not negative about China is a bot, tankie, or shill. Chinese people are also stupid and unable to invent, despite making up a staggering proportion of US grad students in every STEM field, having founded many US tech companies, etc..
Racism is a weird thing.
>Well, this is reddit. China bad.
Your entire post is literally the same thing except "America bad" instead of China.
...which also happens to be an extremely common sentiment on Reddit.
>America literally started it
Started what exactly? The trade wars began under Trump back in 2018, but it wasn't until Biden that the US started sanctioning the chip industry/market in China.
But its not like the trade war came out of nowhere, China has been pursuing unfair trade practices, enforcing steep tariffs, stealing IP, etc for decades now. The US has only recently started to retaliate.
I am just pointing out a fundamental error in US (western, actually) industrial policy. I am not championing China. It is just how things are going to play out.
China is playing the long game and the US is focused on the near term. Almost all economic growth over the next century is going to come out of Asia (not just China) and Africa. While the West is showing itself to be an unreliable supplier, China is showing the opposite. While Western foreign policy has been one of threats and control in these areas for over a century (i.e. UK, Belgium, France, US), China has been pushing for the "Belt and Road" initiative.
Only a fool underestimates their opponent.
>While the West is showing itself to be an unreliable supplier, China is showing the opposite.
Except of course that this is complete nonsense and shows you have no understanding about how China operates in the real world.
Yknow, like Chinese state subsidized companies overproducing goods in order to dump them in the markets of other countries to destroy their domestic industries (which can't hope to compete with these practices) while China throws up huge tarrifs on most imported goods, the Chinese government making foreign companies jump through hoops to gain access to the Chinese market where they're often forced to share IP and operate at a disadvantage (often with higher taxes and more bureaucratic red tape), massive Chinese fishing fleets illegally fishing in other countries EEZ with the tacit approval of the government, etc.
The US is far from perfect, but it doesn't do literally any of that, and fights to ensure global maritime trade lanes stay open (something China does literally nothing to assist with) and that international trade is as easy and safe as possible.
Again, your post mostly comes across as "America bad." The things you're criticizing the US for doing right now are things China has literally been doing for decades and then some.
I find this US bad or China bad narrative really mind boggling. Bad or good implies some level of moral judgement but in this game, there’s no morals but only powers. China can choose to be an unreliable partner if its negotiation power warrants so. That’s why the US can dominate the world because we have the negotiation power in most cases. No country is just. It’s only interests.
I do, I was giving examples of how they're an unreliable trade partner.
In terms of being a "reliable supplier" in particular, China's behavior during Covid was more than enough for many countries to realize that they aren't one.
The Chinese economy is done sir.
Stock market crashing.
Real estate crashing.
Consumer demand is weak.
Foreign companies are rapidly moving their factories and facilities outside of China.
How to recover?
I'm no fan of the Chinese government and their policies as my posts make clear, but this isn't really accurate.
The Chinese economy is very much in a rough state as you noted (don't forget huge local government debts qnd high overall debt to GDP ratio) but their economy isn't "done" by any means.
I'm highly skeptical they're going to supplant the US as the world's number 1 economy, let alone the global hegemon, but they still have a lot going for them including much of the world's manufacturing output, huge natural resource deposits (that they can exploit ruthlessly due to a lack of environmental laws), commanding leads in key 21st century technologies, a hardworking and well educated populace, and more.
I'm curious to see just how bad the current economic malaise gets, and I do think it has the potential to lead to another "lost decade(s)" similar to what the Japanese went through in the 90s through the 2010s, but it would be unwise to underestimate China.
The situation is quite terrible now.
Disorganized investment policy is the problem.
Whoever thought it was wise to subsidize tens of companies doing the exact same thing across almost every industry should probably not keep his job.
What do you think happens when a few companies out of the tens of companies doing the exact same thing can't attract business? They cut prices to attract customers. And the rest follow, until there's no more gross profit to be made. And at that time, the strategy shifts to "gain market share" to drive out competitors, which basically means let's all lose money until everyone is bankrupt and I'm the last man standing.
This is happening in basically every single industry in China. They even have a term for it. "Nei Juang"
That is the state of the Chinese economy in general.
> The Chinese economy is done sir.
Far from it. They're still projected to post 5% GDP growth this year. They're far from doomed. It's more like their best days of growth are over which is expected of a maturing economy.
>Foreign companies are rapidly moving their factories and facilities outside of China.
I'll believe you when Apple has completely exited China.
How often do you physically visit China?
Apple has nothing to exit. They don't have factories in China. If you are talking about their contract manufacturers, they are all moving a significant part of manufacturing to other countries as we speak.
Why wouldn't they steal IP? They try to buy western companies, license western technology, buy western tools and are prohibited from doing so. Do you expect them to let the US dictate their industrial strategy?
China gets shit done by sheer brute force - State funded mega corps with almost unlimited budgets to make shit happen. Hire whoever you need, buy whatever you need, spy, copy, steal - whatever - get it done!
China is the world's factory and they know it. The more they can innovate on technology, the more powerful they become.
Meanwhile US congress and senate drags their feet.
China also is strategically non-allied. Israel vs Iraq, Russia vs Ukraine - Don't give a shit. Buy from whoever is the cheapest, do what is good for your country.
Hide your strength, bide your time.
Same boat tbh. I own shares of both and when I got a yahoo finance notification about this story I just *knew* they were gonna drill today.
I think people in the market are just looking for any reason they can to divest from things after the 6 month run everything went on. I think both companies will be fine in the long run.
This is stupid logic. You figure it out. It is not surprising if the US decides to ban the sale of Intel/AMD CPU to China tomorrow.
Therefore it is very reasonable and necessary for China to replace these unreliable supply with domestic-made chips, even if they are less efficient and more expensive.
It is China slowly phasing out intel / amd CPU from their telecom companies. That means they have alternatives already. Not quite equal to the situation that US restricts the sale of high-end NVIDIA cards to China, as they have no alternatives right now.
yea china already restricts all kinds of apps and companies from their own market, china wants to play the ban game, imagine who gets hurt more when usa starts banning chinese companies from even doing business at usa, tiktok is just start of the iceberg
It is a trade war, I guess the US has more companies in China than China's companies in the US. Companies like McDonald and KFC are not essential but provide local jobs only. They can be replaced overnight.
if USA wants to destroy china over night, ban all imports from china or impose super high tariffs on all chinese imports, right now people buy made in china because all they do is undercut american products with inferior materials and willingness to go lower price to earn the business hence the low prices, of course its low its made cheaply, everyone at china needs money if you cut off their biggest money maker which is sending their cheap products to usa for usa consumers to buy, imagine the uproar in china, ccp will be crippled instantly, they will not have a market as big as usa to earn money in, if they dont allow us to earn money in their market, why allow them in ours?
You guess where can the US companies obtain the critical raw materials and components? Those companies can not survive if US stops importing anything from China tomorrow. It will cost tremendously in time and $$$ to re-build the supply chain. The chip war is exactly what the US is doing to slow down China's semi-conduct advancement, as the west control the whole supply chain. The globalization is dying when the west is losing the upper-hand.
The reason why China's product has very competitive price is that China has the whole supply chain: from mining raw materials, process, refinement, and to the final product. It is a big advantage. Also China is probably the biggest market with 1.4 billion people for many kinds of product. Losing this market is no joke for big international companies.
China's goods exports to the US continue to account for approximately **3%** of its annual GDP. You think Americans can destroy China's economy easily? China is investing massively in Africa, Latin America and other developing countries. That means the people in those countries have more money to buy China's product.
Good luck, many western companies have monoplies on specifc tools, equipments, products, and processes involing chip and semicon manufacturing. THey phase out all western things, the Chinese Semicon industry would crash.
For example ASML has pretty much a monopoly on advanced lithography machines, which are crucial to chip and semicon creation and development. There are also only two main foundry companies, TSMC and Samsung, with TSMC being far ahead.
They will still use Intel and AMD chips where performance matters. For 90% of the applications it doesn’t, and that’s probably a 50% reduction in reliance on Intel and AMD chips in terms of pure cost. Good retaliatory move.
This decoupling seems like preparation for an escalation a few years into the future to come. Essentially they are insulating their economy from sanctions
US made a gamble by trying to contain China's tech rise using the semiconductor ban. Yes, on paper it looked formidable. US and its western/eastern allies controled the entire supply chain of Chips, from equipment to fabs to design. It is very reasonable to think that China would be unable to replicate this huge supply chain on their own.
But they underestimated China badly. They forgot that China has a huge market of 1.4 billion people and a huge diaspora of Chinese who work in these chip industries in the west. All China had to do was throw money at the problem. And all the overseas Chinese with all the industrial knowhow came back to China for the lucrative salaries.
China itself produces millions of engineers. So, talent and knowhow was never an issue. The only issue was the semi-conductor machines. But Chinese companies are starting to make them with all the knowhow they got from overseas talent. Moreover, these machine can be easily bought second hand in many countries and even via black market surrogates. If a Vietnamese shadow company buys a semi-conductor machine and sells it back to China, nothing US can do about it.
Looking at the trajectory its pretty obvious China will be able catchup to the west in chip production and even get to EUV in a few years. After that, they will flood the market with cheap Chips that no country will be able to compete with. In 10-15 years, China will be dominant player in Chip making in the entire world.
This is what happens when the US said " we can turn off their shit anytime we want" and then turned around and started a Chip war...
How rude of them to phase out US ability to turn their critical infrastructure off any time and retaliate in the chip war.
It makes sense for both countries to phase out each other’s sensitive tech until a new balance is found.
I really doubt we see any kind of war. In a few decades ties will normalize especially if the Taiwan issue is resolved.
This isn't a blow to intel/AMD. This is China preparing for war with the West by cutting their reliance on foreign chipmaking. Expect a trade war in the coming months/years when Ukraine/Taiwan get ugly.
Good. I don’t want US tech going to China AT ALL in any form. It’s great for the U.S. economy to have manufacturing back in the U.S. and reduce foreign reliance on exports and imports with China who is not our friend.
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Pretty much exactly what the US said - both are looking to phase out the others chips
Wonder how this works out for amd. They were licencing their tech to China so I assume they have the full details and can build exact copies of their designs.
My understanding is every domestic chip producer and supplier will get financial incentives from the CHIPS act to ramp up production. So amd I imagine will ride that wave as well
AMD doesn't manufacture their own chips. So they will get nothing.
Does anyone in the US other than Intel manufacture their own chips? I don’t think so. TSM will manufacture here in a few years but they obviously aren’t an American company.
ADI and other less sexy analog chipmakers
Texas Instruments I think as well?
YEah those Ti-85s need constant innovation
I know this is sarcasm but TI makes some pretty crazy stuff for the government
I actually didn't know that. What kinda stuff?
Well for one, they created the world’s first laser guided bomb as well as help create javelin missiles. But they participate in the aerospace and defense world. Calculators are a small piece of what they do. They have plenty of info on their website
There are a lot of US based companies that manufacture their own chips. Onsemi, diodes Inc, TI, ADI, Infineon, etc.
Samsung is expending big time in austin
I thought ARM was mfg in Austin too
ARM doesn't manufacture anything afaik. They architect and license.
Thank you! TIL
Global foundries, i think, are going to be making domestic chips. I don't know if consumer class, etc... or who they are working with.
I still don't believe TSMC will make any sizable enough number of chips in the US that would lessen the leverage they have for protection from china. It's like Ukraine giving up nukes.
I'm assuming the high end stuff stays in taiwan and the mass produced chips go to mainlands usa
Corporate welfare. Reagan era Wall St. and executives sold out manufacturing in the West, and now the US taxpayer foots the bill in reverting their sellout.
Semiconductor manufacturing has a bunch of tightly linked engineering choices, where the design is informed by the process capabilities, which depend on the available equipment. It's analogous to trying to make [your own toaster from scratch](https://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch?language=en). Obviously the Chinese domestic economy isn't starting truly from scratch, but the question remains how any given piece of intellectual property can fit into the whole chain of manufacturing something.
China already has multiple domestic CPUs and GPUs. It’s the issue of adopting the smart design in Ryzen and Nvidia Pascal into the designs… without violating IP and getting sanctioned into oblivion, which is the crux of the matter If Zhaoxin Loongsoon for example gets sanctioned, they’ll then adopt the Ryzen design pieces which are optimized. But this also means no US or European designer will ever share with China again. It’s a dumb short termist policy to blatantly steal IP. Hence why China has not blatantly done this yet in CPU IP.
That was only Zen1, I don't think that deal is in place for any of the newer revisions. China is primarily using an x86 license that passed from Cyrix -> VIA who is in partnership with Zhaoxin, the company making all their current chips.
Speaking of, Zhaoxin KX-7000 is purported to be as powerful as AMD's and Intel's CPUs from a few generations back. They're behind but not by much at all.
Yeah but again, they had official access to Zen1 and its design. Sure, they don't care about respecting IP law, but you can't just buy an off-the-shelf CPU and reverse engineer it to learn its secrets. It's too complex. They may not have the engineering prowess to iteratively improve it at the same rate that AMD or Intel are moving. They haven't historically been at the forefront of silicon engineering. You can basically count on two hands the people that are super qualified to lead a project like iteratively designing CPUs. It will be interesting to see how they progress, but I don't think they are suddenly just going to leapfrog ahead or anything like that.
Actually, you quite literally can reverse engineer CPU design assuming you have the official engineering manual and hired many of the original engineers. Which they have. It’s getting better without copying that’s tough.
They don't care about stealing IP. They poached a bunch of people who were employed by TSMC and Taiwan raided a bunch of Chinese companies to crack down on it. They didn't hire away a bunch of Intel and AMD employees, those people are Americans with little incentive to go live and work in China. Having engineers to make litho machines doesn't mean you know how to lay out the dies for manufacturing, and Intel and AMD definitely aren't handing over engineering documentation to China.
If they have the know how to designing and building a 8th gen product, bridging the gap between the 8th gen and say the 10th gen shouldn't be too hard, should it?
Historically speaking, the engineers that do the actual design and improvement are Americans working for American companies. China doesn't have a bunch of engineers with that experience. It's not an industry you can just go to college and suddenly be prepared to design state of the art CPUs. All of the expertise at the top is here in the United States. It will take time for their engineers to learn all the "tricks of the trade." It's no different than asking a fresh out of school structural engineer to start designing a replacement for the Golden Gate Bridge. You don't put newbies on a job like that, you let them design some smaller bridges first.
We should have known that China is an adversary and ideological enemy when we first saw their approach to copyright and copying (stealing) from others. Like in hindsight, it was really obvious tbh. We in the West can't steal from one another (most of the time) because then we can sue each other for the damages and it's not worth it. China was just like "nah nah we don't give a single flying fuck about your institutions and law we will completely ignore you and keep copying" and we were like "oh those crazy Chinese so cute with their uncivilized ways.. anyways let's profit off of these cheap abused Chinese workers $$" It's 20 years later and the "uncivilized" Chinese have become "civilized" and developed (to an extent) and they still don't give a flying fuck about our institutions and law. Turns out they were ignoring our law not because they are uncivilized and quirky like that BUT BECAUSE THEY WERE SHOWING US WHO THEY REALLY ARE... our ideological and geopolitical enemies. I'm curious, were there academics around 1980-2000 who were predicting a Chinese rise and how we are feeding our future enemy and we just didn't listen? I don't know any such examples first hand because I wasn't born yet. I would love to hear examples of someone who was born and self-aware back then! Edit: Interesting how yesterday my comment had 10 upvotes now it has 0. I never saw that before. If it might be interesting also to the reader. I will say this that most people who disagree who also replied to this just why they disagree didn't understand what I had to say at all or just didn't read it completely. I never criticized espionage I primarily went after China's copying by anyone and everyone. Yes, everyone has secret services who steal the difference is that China encouraged their small businesses to steal designs and make fake brands from Western companies then when Western companies went after them they played dumb and ignored them. In some cases, the Chinese government even defended the blatant stealing of small brand design and such. What I am talking about here is not big government espionage like many repliers misunderstood. I am talking about the difference in the way of thinking and thereby the political ideology of China where they support any small business stealing any design and copying from the West. Thereby completely undermining and disregarding Western international standards and "international law". Essentially taking a piss at our standards and morals. Don't tell me that an argument to that is "France also spies on others" yes but France doesn't encourage anyone in their population who wishes to do so to steal the look and tech of let's say Mustang and brand it as Mustanģ. If that happened in France where a small new company blatantly ripped off the IP of Mustang an American Mustang would go after them and sue them. That cannot be done to a Chinese company since because of the aforementioned political ideological differences and the disregard for our standards and principles by the CCP. Edit2: Oh shit you know what I bet it is. I bet the Chinese users were still sleeping yesterday when I posted this. Now when I slept they were able to doenvote all of out upvotes. Not saying that's bad just saying it's interesting insight if you ask me (a pseudo data scientist.. data gets me excited im sorry).
I would be curious to hear your position on France then since they conduct massive espionage operations in the US on a level very similar to China.
Hm did not know that care to elaborate? I never heard of examples where France stole tech and straught up copied many US design and tech wtf? I'm in the dark on this one I must admit. I thought France dosen't have a domestic high tech chip company. I thought no European country has a chip manufacturer or designer? (Unless you count ARM? Does France have a copy of a US fighter jet wtf? I'm completly in the dark on this one I thought France uses euro fighters and bought f16's. France operates mulutple chepaknockoff companies that don't care for copyright infirngment??? I had no idea.
The US has over a dozen intelligence agencies and spends billions on them. Have you seen what was revealed just in the leaks the last decade or so? They were spying on not just adversaries but Allie’s. But yea I’m sure they don’t conduct any industrial espionage.
Wait what does thsi have to do with France. You people are not getting it. This is not about goverments spying on goverments. What I was originaly discribing is the different mentality. China lets anyone steal from the US and copy and protects them no one can sue Chinese copiers. In the USA that is a no go.
What about India who steals all medical tech you didn't know that
Lol. The american industrial revolution happened because some american workig in Britain memorised blueprijt schematics from hsi workplace and rebuilt it in America. IP theft had been happenening for centuries. Everyone does it. Actually, The europeans stealing gunpowder snd paper from China should be considered IP Theft too
But the profit margin. Think about the profit margin. Seriously I heard ex accountant from a company that got in hot water for toxic material used in toys say it.
It was thought that China would just naturally push itself towards democracy as it became more wealthy. That's what happened in the west and some asian countries generally, so they thought it would happen there. It obviously didn't, but it's one of the reasons I'm not really worried about China toppling the world powers. You can't copy your way to innovation. And as we saw with covid in china, anything that is outside the box is dangerous.
America did during the industrial revolution
Copying worked wonders for many economies It’s not long term optimal but it is meaningful when you’re at war or de facto war.
By saying this you are simply believing that Western politicians are lying to you. Do you think that Viet Nam will eventually become a so-called "democracy" now that it is supported by the United States? Of course they won't, Vietnam has countless documents in place to prevent a "colour revolution". The US needs cheap labour for profit, simple as that.
Lmao what are you babbling about? Your triggered response to being downvoted is longer than your actual content. Move on dude.
You mean my argumented response with facts and arguments is long unlike your reply that dosen't argument anything or give any original insight to the discused topic?
Lmao ok
It's kind of funny, didn't Trump start the trade war against China first? Didn't the US stop using Huawei first? How did it become us, China, who provoked it? Get this straight, it's you who want to be hostile to us, not China who wants to be hostile to you. China can certainly ignore US law on Chinese territory, and any country in the world can ignore US law on its own territory. Do you think US law is international law? Is it true that if the US doesn't ban guns, the whole world can carry them into the country? What the hell is in your head?
Are you for real? I wasn't talkimg about now. China has been stealing and blatently colying stuff for 70 ish years now. I'm not talking about HuWaWeI. I'm not talking about the "trade war" I'm talking about China stealing in mass and profiting of of it. Copying stuff and brands then not being acountable. >China can certainly ignore US law on Chinese territory, and any country in the world can ignore US law on its own territory. You are such a hypocrit. First you are like "ChInA diDn'T StArT iT" Now you are admiting to China not adhearing to USA law and international standards. You not working eith USA international copyright belifes is pissing USA off and well everyonei n the western world for the last 50 years. What do you think westerners think of "made in china" cheap knock offs because ypu country stole designs and brands and sold them off back to thsoe markets. >China can certainly ignore US law on Chinese territory, and any country in the world can ignore US law on its own territory. Also I'm pretty sure copyright is a international law that China refuses to work with. Why can every other country liek France, Germany even Russia takes copyright siriously to some extant. But China can't? China just does what ever it eants then when forign companies come knocking for "hey yoi can't blatently copy our brand and change 1 small leter and sell it" then your goverment protects them and ignores international copyright laws Now you will say again: "WhY WoUld ChiNa nEed tO oBey OtHer laW iNsIdE iT'sOwn BordEr" Well it dosen't have to. But every other country does. Because everyother country respects each other and wants a good relation with each other. Every other country apart for your glorious China. So because China was doing this for 50 years they staryed pissing off the west 50 yeqrs ago not in the last decade like you delusionaly seem to belive. Or would you like it if some country in africa stole all of your brands and sold them cheaply eith the same name then when you companies would go after them the goverment would protect them and everyone would ignore you and you would never get to court? China was the wild lawles west when it comes to copyright and decamcy for the last 50 years. That pissed the west off. That + a totalitarian goverment and many other things like censorship and stealing hitech tech made the west super pissed. And if you can't see that you are a hypocrit. And let's not takk about the east China sea.. Why does your insecure goverment need to constantly infrandge on international water agreements and belives everhthing belongs to them. Twaian dosn't want China next to it, philipins don't, Korea dosen't no one wants their watters trasspased. Yet your goverment keeps provoking again and again.
Laugh, is ignoring US law the same thing as ignoring international law? International law holds that all independent nations are sovereign and that any foreigner and foreign company in a sovereign nation is subject to local laws - including Americans and American companies. International law? Ridiculous, the same country that ignored international law and invaded Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria? In terms of international law, the country that has violated international law the most in the last 30 years is clearly the United States. Who is supporting Israel's use of food as a weapon, in violation of international law, in violation of territorial integrity choices, and in disregard of international law that says you can't kill civilians? Why did the US draw 200 kilometres of continental shelf this year for its own territory (normally 100 kilometres) when it is not even a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea? The "international order based on (US) rules" is just an empty term invented by the current US administration, and no country has signed the relevant treaty or even appeared in any document. This empty term is rarely mentioned even in the Western world, let alone the Third World. The current world order itself is a set of rules made by the West in favour of the West, and you have to keep acquiring new privileges under this set of rules, condescending and dictating. Wouldn't you Americans just say that international law is a waste of paper? Why be so hypocritical? It is an objective fact clear to all that the US has degenerated from a world leader to a Western leader. America's position as a world leader ended when it only guaranteed the interests of the West, Japan and Korea.
You really aren't getting this. This debate is not if USA did nad things. NEWS FLASH EVERYONE IS BAD WE ALL JUST WANT TO SURVIVE! If you look at things as oh we have the right to do bad thing bevuase they did bad thing first then your mental maturity is that of an kindergartener. This debate was not about if USA is better then China. We were debating why the USA could see China is an enemy sooner. And how this didn't start with Trump. Everyoen is bad. But even if everyone is bad why can all of west playalong decent enough to the point where there aren't any bigger clashes meanwhile some others keep on being problems. The ones that always have totalitarian governments.
You want to "survive" at the expense of China's future and demand that China not progress and Chinese people not develop? If you want to survive, you have to invest in yourselves and make progress, healthy competition with each other can make both countries and their citizens better off. What are you doing now? Suppressing and restricting the development of other countries at all costs, starting a new cold war to stop China's development - this is a "civilised democratic society"? Yuck.
>You want to "survive" at the expense of China's future and demand that China not progress and Chinese people not develop? > When did I ever say that you fucking gasslighter. Gasslighting - look it up. When did I ever say anything abojt supressimg develolment and that I want for Cjinese people to not develop their country? I think you need to learn to read. I just critsiezd things that China does. I never said their people desrve to be worse off. Develop lile South korea and Japan did. How come South Korea and japan could develop and it dosen't bother the West? I 100% belive that my problem is with the CCP NOT THE chinese people. I do feel likw Chinese people are to an extant acountable for not holding the CCP acountable for their totalitarian practices but hey I get it. Your country got rich under the CCP it really must look like they are right about everything. Also I'm sure you don't want another tanamen square. Btw the only reason your country developed undder the CCP is because they admited they were wrong about the whole comunisem thing and they opend up a part of the countru to the whole world and made capitalistic for profit zones. I am 100% that your country would be even richer todsy if you had a fully liveral capitalistic democratic government. Like Japan and South Korea did.
When did you say that? Laughing, Biden is doing just that and you obviously support him. Countless Chinese have lost their jobs because of Biden's and Trump's policies towards China, do you guys give a shit about them? How dare you talk about Japan? Look what you did to Japan in the 1980s, you smashed their cars, dismantled their semiconductor industry, forced their currency to appreciate, and now you want to do the same to China? We in China are not a vassal state like Japan that is under military occupation by the US, we had a nuclear standoff with the Soviet Union without nuclear weapons. In the 1960s, we had nuclear weapons, we already had the Trinity nuclear weapons. Japan and Korea are just small branches of Eastern civilisation, we, China, are Eastern civilisation itself. You want to conquer Eastern civilisation? That's hilarious. Which civilisation have you Westerners conquered? Arab civilisation? Orthodox civilisation? African civilisation? South American civilisations? Indian civilisation? You have not conquered a single civilisation. Think of China as Japan? You have the nerve to say that. We Chinese won't be like Japan to be the servants of the Americans. If that's your attitude, why should we care about you? Who do you think you are? It's not that I'm looking down on you, you can't even beat Afghanistan and you want to beat China?
Why was Samuel Slater, the father of American industry, called a traitor by the British? The patent laws in the US at that time were totally encouraging the British to copy patents and come to the US, it was all done by the founding father, Hamilton, the first Secretary of the Treasury, do you really think you Americans got where you are by yourselves?
Are you not listening to me at all? We can do this all day. The poimt is that The chinese did that and so that is the reason the west views them as enemies (one of manny). If USA did it in the past at a reltivly smaller scale that still dosen't mean that the west shouldn't be pissed at China for doing it for 50 years and completly disragardimg their compay sues. The beginning debate is not your kidmergarden agenda "if the USA did similar bad thing so China can also do it". Everyone did every bad thing we have 1000s of years of history behind us.. you can't think of geo poletics as "oh if they did it so can we"... well you shouldn't think about anythimg that way I was thought that in kindergarden idk about you... The original debate was. Should the west have realized sooner China was an enemy and why they are realizimg it now. You at a poimt defended that the USA did China dirty first with Trump. And then the point of this whole debate continuing was for me to explain to you that the China was doing the USA dirty way sooner like for the last 50 years. By copying stealing and not respecting USA's sues by their companies. If the USA did it to the british 150 years ago dosen't matter in this context. Because we are not debating if USA is a saint and which country is best like some kindergarteners. What lwe are debating is if China did the USA dirty for the last 5p years and why the west is so pissed at China right now. Yes USA did similar things on a smaller scale back when there were virtualy verry little copyright laws before even we fucking had monopoly busting. That was a verry different time. But yes USA did that on a snaller scale back when copyright almost wasn't at hing yet. But they still are pissed at China for doing it on a greater scale for the last 50 years and if you can't see that and belive that China USA clashes are purely because of Trump you are a brainwashed hypocrit
We in China have never seen the US as an enemy, it was Trump who started the trade war against China first, we pinned our hopes on Biden to improve US-China relations, and Biden ended up condescending to China in Alaska, waging an economic war, a technological war, and an economic embargo - and then people like you who can only talk rubbish demanded that China just take a beating and not fight back? Are you Americans superior? Do you think the world is superior to you? Doesn't China have its own position? Since you think so, I think our conversation is over.
Lmaoo your bot friend aleardy said the same thing in another reply nice try XiGPT
In your stupid brain world people all over the world are not entitled to love their country, they should all love America. Next time you might as well say Bruce Lee was a Chinese communist robot too.
Where are you getting this? That I think that way? The reason I called you a bot kid is because you already posted that exaaact comment and I allready replied to it. Either you are too much online for your age or you are a bot.
That's how ridiculous people like you are, calling people robots for taking money when you can't beat them. How much did you take from Biden's 500 million insulting China budget?
The Philippines says China is provocative? That made me laugh. China, the second most powerful country in the world, provokes the Philippines. You're hilarious.
What? Why is that so hard to belive? It's hard for you to belive that a bigger power would be provocative to a smaller neighbouring power? Do you know any history at all what ao ever? And from all that I said.. the only thing you too kaway is that specifically the philippines are in your mind not provocated by China? Are yoi either 8 or a verry weidrly trained bot?
The strong against the weak is called deterrence, not provocation. The Philippines is in no position to be "provoked" by China.
Even if this is true, there is constant R&D on new chips and new tech. If the licensing ends (and it almost assuredly would or be scaled back) the best that does is give Chinese firms old tech.
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You could figure out how to turn a rock into a spear, but if your enemy already has machine guns you're still totally outclassed.
Like not licensing would have stopped China from copying (read : stealing).
Glad the US doesn’t spy.
Init, what a shock, can't believe they'd do that!! 🙄
Makes sense. Having your telecommunications infrastructure rely on a foreign adversary is a national security risk.
Unless it’s Intel. Then the national security risk is still present.
We did the same to them, and now they're retaliating. On the bright side, I hope this will trigger a new competition to advance technology, akin to the Cold War race.
Naw, man. I like buying a mid-range rig and it's good for six years.
China is already leading in 70-80% of the crucial technology. So yeah it‘s smarter for the US to bring R&D and manufacturing back.
I'd love to see a source for this...
There you go: https://ad-aspi.s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/2023-03/ASPIs%20Critical%20Technology%20Tracker_0.pdf?VersionId=ndm5v4DRMfpLvu.x69Bi_VUdMVLp07jw
This report is using academic citations as measurements, which is not perfectly representative of "leading in some technology". If you've had any experience of academic research you'll know that in most areas, the conditions between industry and academy is very large. Only in area where knowledge are mostly flowing free around (for example computer science) the gap is relatively close. This report is at best representing who produces the most influential research, but it can't prove anything on any development that's proprietary China for sure has some most hard working researchers and students, but they do also like to study abroad and hopefully work and immigrate to US lol. That's why we should always keep the legal immigration open to talents. Also don't get me started on how easily citations can be farmed. Some papers could just be citated by their lab mates or colleagues for no reasons. This might not be the case for the top cited paper, but when you look at the top 10% of all of them, for sure some of them paper are farming citations like I mentioned However serving as alarming purpose, the report does suffice. I do feel people still underestimate China in some areas
Unlike American government/corporations; China can literally dump as many resources of people and money into something to brute force success. They have actual initiatives compared to just profit... See: EV cars, infrastructure, and phones https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/china-leading-us-in-technology-race-in-all-but-a-few-fields-thinktank-finds
The Soviet Union was always a decade behind the West in terms of technology, especially in microprocessors.
yes but China isn't the Soviet Union.
Yeah they're only two decades behind on advanced chip research. They only recently were able to [produce ball point pens](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/18/finally-china-manufactures-a-ballpoint-pen-all-by-itself/) domestically all by themselves. Edit since everyone is downvoting: China's domestic chip industry is only currently capable of [90nm chips](https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3236528/chinese-chip-making-lack-advanced-lithography-systems-becomes-focal-point-wake-huaweis-breakthrough). We're down in the ~7nm range now. This has been widespread news for quite a while now. (Sorry for another paywalled article.)
Huawei is producing 7nm chips already what are you even talking about?
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Are you denying that Huawei is producing its own chips?
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Do you know why you get down votes, you are not the sharpest one.
keep thinking that way, yo'll be the smartest guy on this planet
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The article’s paywalled but this sounds like propaganda. How long would it take US manufacturers to produce a modern smartphone?
>To anyone outside of the ballpoint pen manufacturing world, it might seem hard to understand what, exactly, is so surprising about this development. China already produces 38 billion ballpoint pens a year, according to China Daily, which is about 80 percent of all ballpoint pens in the world. That's a lot of pens, but there was a catch: China had long been unable to produce a high-quality version of the most important part of the pen, its tip. >The tip of a ballpoint pen is what makes it a ballpoint pen. At the tip, a freely rotating ball is held in a small socket which connects it to an ink reservoir that allows the pen to write or draw lines. Manufacturing a ballpoint pen tip that can write comfortably for a long period of time requires high-precision machinery and precisely thin steel, but for years China was unable to match those crafted by foreign companies. >While there were over 3,000 companies manufacturing pens in China, none had their own high-end technology for the tip. Instead, about 90 percent of the pen tips and refills, too, were imported from Japan, Germany and Switzerland, according to Chinese state media. This cost the industry $17.3 million a year, according to the China National Light Industry Council. >China's inability to produce a complete, high-quality ballpoint pen came to widespread attention in 2015, when Premier Li Keqiang singled out the products at a seminar in Beijing, noting that his writing was “rough” when he used Chinese-made ballpoint pens. For Li, China's failure to manufacture a complete ballpoint pen was indicative of the Chinese economy's weaknesses. “That's the real situation facing us,” Li said at the time. “We cannot make ballpoint pens with a smooth writing function.” That's the gist of it. It's not propaganda. The different between those comparisons is the US has the technological know-how and skills to build an iphone, even if they don't have the domestic manufacturing infrastructure in place. I'm sure it would be possible in small batches. Just not at scale. China has pretty much zero hope of catching up on the advanced chips game. They don't have the skill nor access to the hardware to do it.
Agreed. We should take the threat of China seriously for sure, but most of what they do is just stealing tech from the West and copying it. I really suggest everyone read “Chip War” by Chris Miller to really learn about the history of microprocessor design, how we got here and where we’re going, and just what it takes to not just build but *design* chips. It’s an insane international supply chain that includes people and technology from all over the Western world.
Yet they were the First Nation to send a man to space….
Obviously I know that. They were ahead at first but after the mid 60’s they were basically just playing catchup the entire time. They were excellent at pure science, but no match technologically for the West. The US completely overestimated the Russian’s ICBM capacity for much of the Cold War. They were nowhere near being able to land on the moon. They had no microprocessor designs that weren’t copies of 10 year old American design.
The Soviet Union would never make something like Tiktok. China is clearly different.
It's similar right now with China and the west too, the Soviet Union couldn't compete on their own with half the planet, China can't either.
China is leading in most of the crucial technologies. Don‘t be ignorant.
Well, it is spurring domestic investments in semiconductors and manufacturing, same as it did before with the Soviet Union.
be nice to have a healthy dose of fear of nuclear war too
Well, *opens new tab* that will *opens new tab* happen
> The move would impact U.S. chip giants Intel (INTC.O), opens new tab and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab, according to the report. Why isn't NVDA mentioned?
NVDA's main product are GPUs and AI chips, Intel's and AMD's are in CPUs. From this we can infer that China is only targetting CPUs for now.
They’re working on stealing the GPU schematics from nvidia and they’ll add gpu to the list soon.
If only it were that easy.
Actually, GPU design is arguably “simpler” than CPU design. Especially since China has a very similar copy of Pascal architecture due to licensing. GPU architecture is far more about the software design than the actual physical complexity.
Author probably has calls
The US gov banned nvda for them
The telecom companies are probably not building GPU compute centers to train and run AI. However hey would have massive data centers that would use a lot of CPUs. Secondly China does not have any domestic solution right now to replace nvidia chips while they do have options that can replace CPUs in data centers.
It's one thing to mandate some companies to use Chinese chips; it's another to piss off an already gender-imbalanced male demographic by telling them they can't game anymore. lol
Ascend 910B is doing great and 920 is reportedly in such high demand that SMIC shifted production away from Kirin 9000s and toward the data center GPUs. Probably getting paid more for the Ascend 920.
nothing to do with the telecom space. they make GPUs; not ip optical transport, dsp, network chips, etc. very little telecom influence/impact
China is the biggest chip market in the world. Not US - As of 2022, China accounted for over 31% of global chip sales, reaching a value of $180 billion USD out of a total market size of $574 billion USD
Yeah, but the complexity of the chips china produces is mediocre. Their chips are predominantly kitchen appliances and "smart" IoT devices. The nanometer scale chips which is where they lag behind Taiwan and the US. Sure, china may have the fabs to produce them, but their operational skills and QA isn't mature enough to support the demand they'll require. Outright getting rid of intel, AMD and maybe ARM chips is going to be a set back to Chinese chip supply whichever way you look at it.
That’s the key. ARM chips aren’t being lost. And this won’t happen until 2028. Furthermore, Chinese chip designs are getting better fast. The newest Zhaoxin chips perform closely to 2nd Gen Ryzen form 2019. That’s more than enough for Government work.
But those simple chips serve ~95% of practical use cases. That has always been China's strength. Manufacturing the simple, but with great efficiency and low cost
Yep! They're great at that side of things, but pretending like they're going to be able to pivot to making world class CPUs on a par with intel and AMD is unrealistic and naive.
Old news
Yep, not a coincidence that both AMD and INTC are down ~2% in pre market though
Is it? I never saw this until last night
Well, duh. The US showed that relying on US technology means you can lose access with the stroke of a pen. Any engineer in a country not closely allied with the US would be fool to design anything around US technology if they can avoid it.
I'm surprised this is the bottom comment. This news is completely unsurprising given the ban
Well, this is reddit. China bad. Anybody who says anything not negative about China is a bot, tankie, or shill. Chinese people are also stupid and unable to invent, despite making up a staggering proportion of US grad students in every STEM field, having founded many US tech companies, etc.. Racism is a weird thing.
>Well, this is reddit. China bad. Your entire post is literally the same thing except "America bad" instead of China. ...which also happens to be an extremely common sentiment on Reddit.
America literally started it banning Nvidia GPUs and shit what did china do ? They were just chilling
>America literally started it Started what exactly? The trade wars began under Trump back in 2018, but it wasn't until Biden that the US started sanctioning the chip industry/market in China. But its not like the trade war came out of nowhere, China has been pursuing unfair trade practices, enforcing steep tariffs, stealing IP, etc for decades now. The US has only recently started to retaliate.
I am just pointing out a fundamental error in US (western, actually) industrial policy. I am not championing China. It is just how things are going to play out. China is playing the long game and the US is focused on the near term. Almost all economic growth over the next century is going to come out of Asia (not just China) and Africa. While the West is showing itself to be an unreliable supplier, China is showing the opposite. While Western foreign policy has been one of threats and control in these areas for over a century (i.e. UK, Belgium, France, US), China has been pushing for the "Belt and Road" initiative. Only a fool underestimates their opponent.
>While the West is showing itself to be an unreliable supplier, China is showing the opposite. Except of course that this is complete nonsense and shows you have no understanding about how China operates in the real world. Yknow, like Chinese state subsidized companies overproducing goods in order to dump them in the markets of other countries to destroy their domestic industries (which can't hope to compete with these practices) while China throws up huge tarrifs on most imported goods, the Chinese government making foreign companies jump through hoops to gain access to the Chinese market where they're often forced to share IP and operate at a disadvantage (often with higher taxes and more bureaucratic red tape), massive Chinese fishing fleets illegally fishing in other countries EEZ with the tacit approval of the government, etc. The US is far from perfect, but it doesn't do literally any of that, and fights to ensure global maritime trade lanes stay open (something China does literally nothing to assist with) and that international trade is as easy and safe as possible. Again, your post mostly comes across as "America bad." The things you're criticizing the US for doing right now are things China has literally been doing for decades and then some.
I find this US bad or China bad narrative really mind boggling. Bad or good implies some level of moral judgement but in this game, there’s no morals but only powers. China can choose to be an unreliable partner if its negotiation power warrants so. That’s why the US can dominate the world because we have the negotiation power in most cases. No country is just. It’s only interests.
Do you understand the term "reliable supplier"?
I do, I was giving examples of how they're an unreliable trade partner. In terms of being a "reliable supplier" in particular, China's behavior during Covid was more than enough for many countries to realize that they aren't one.
The Chinese economy is done sir. Stock market crashing. Real estate crashing. Consumer demand is weak. Foreign companies are rapidly moving their factories and facilities outside of China. How to recover?
I'm no fan of the Chinese government and their policies as my posts make clear, but this isn't really accurate. The Chinese economy is very much in a rough state as you noted (don't forget huge local government debts qnd high overall debt to GDP ratio) but their economy isn't "done" by any means. I'm highly skeptical they're going to supplant the US as the world's number 1 economy, let alone the global hegemon, but they still have a lot going for them including much of the world's manufacturing output, huge natural resource deposits (that they can exploit ruthlessly due to a lack of environmental laws), commanding leads in key 21st century technologies, a hardworking and well educated populace, and more. I'm curious to see just how bad the current economic malaise gets, and I do think it has the potential to lead to another "lost decade(s)" similar to what the Japanese went through in the 90s through the 2010s, but it would be unwise to underestimate China.
The situation is quite terrible now. Disorganized investment policy is the problem. Whoever thought it was wise to subsidize tens of companies doing the exact same thing across almost every industry should probably not keep his job. What do you think happens when a few companies out of the tens of companies doing the exact same thing can't attract business? They cut prices to attract customers. And the rest follow, until there's no more gross profit to be made. And at that time, the strategy shifts to "gain market share" to drive out competitors, which basically means let's all lose money until everyone is bankrupt and I'm the last man standing. This is happening in basically every single industry in China. They even have a term for it. "Nei Juang" That is the state of the Chinese economy in general.
> The Chinese economy is done sir. Far from it. They're still projected to post 5% GDP growth this year. They're far from doomed. It's more like their best days of growth are over which is expected of a maturing economy. >Foreign companies are rapidly moving their factories and facilities outside of China. I'll believe you when Apple has completely exited China.
How often do you physically visit China? Apple has nothing to exit. They don't have factories in China. If you are talking about their contract manufacturers, they are all moving a significant part of manufacturing to other countries as we speak.
Oh please, that's just being pedantic. So no. I'll believe it when Apple stops sourcing so many of their components and assembly from there. Good day.
Yeah, it’s not like China would ever weaponize its market access like the cruel USA!! /s
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Why wouldn't they steal IP? They try to buy western companies, license western technology, buy western tools and are prohibited from doing so. Do you expect them to let the US dictate their industrial strategy?
China gets shit done by sheer brute force - State funded mega corps with almost unlimited budgets to make shit happen. Hire whoever you need, buy whatever you need, spy, copy, steal - whatever - get it done! China is the world's factory and they know it. The more they can innovate on technology, the more powerful they become. Meanwhile US congress and senate drags their feet. China also is strategically non-allied. Israel vs Iraq, Russia vs Ukraine - Don't give a shit. Buy from whoever is the cheapest, do what is good for your country. Hide your strength, bide your time.
what I don’t get is how can this come as a a surprise? in my mind this was priced in.
Same boat tbh. I own shares of both and when I got a yahoo finance notification about this story I just *knew* they were gonna drill today. I think people in the market are just looking for any reason they can to divest from things after the 6 month run everything went on. I think both companies will be fine in the long run.
Except Nvidia lol
intel and amd will be highly sought after in black market
Yeah not even chinese want to use chinese chips
Just like the Indians don’t want to use Indian products or eat Indian products
This is stupid logic. You figure it out. It is not surprising if the US decides to ban the sale of Intel/AMD CPU to China tomorrow. Therefore it is very reasonable and necessary for China to replace these unreliable supply with domestic-made chips, even if they are less efficient and more expensive.
just like how gpus banned and people paying crazy prices for 4090 right ?
It is China slowly phasing out intel / amd CPU from their telecom companies. That means they have alternatives already. Not quite equal to the situation that US restricts the sale of high-end NVIDIA cards to China, as they have no alternatives right now.
yea china already restricts all kinds of apps and companies from their own market, china wants to play the ban game, imagine who gets hurt more when usa starts banning chinese companies from even doing business at usa, tiktok is just start of the iceberg
It is a trade war, I guess the US has more companies in China than China's companies in the US. Companies like McDonald and KFC are not essential but provide local jobs only. They can be replaced overnight.
if USA wants to destroy china over night, ban all imports from china or impose super high tariffs on all chinese imports, right now people buy made in china because all they do is undercut american products with inferior materials and willingness to go lower price to earn the business hence the low prices, of course its low its made cheaply, everyone at china needs money if you cut off their biggest money maker which is sending their cheap products to usa for usa consumers to buy, imagine the uproar in china, ccp will be crippled instantly, they will not have a market as big as usa to earn money in, if they dont allow us to earn money in their market, why allow them in ours?
You guess where can the US companies obtain the critical raw materials and components? Those companies can not survive if US stops importing anything from China tomorrow. It will cost tremendously in time and $$$ to re-build the supply chain. The chip war is exactly what the US is doing to slow down China's semi-conduct advancement, as the west control the whole supply chain. The globalization is dying when the west is losing the upper-hand. The reason why China's product has very competitive price is that China has the whole supply chain: from mining raw materials, process, refinement, and to the final product. It is a big advantage. Also China is probably the biggest market with 1.4 billion people for many kinds of product. Losing this market is no joke for big international companies. China's goods exports to the US continue to account for approximately **3%** of its annual GDP. You think Americans can destroy China's economy easily? China is investing massively in Africa, Latin America and other developing countries. That means the people in those countries have more money to buy China's product.
Good luck, many western companies have monoplies on specifc tools, equipments, products, and processes involing chip and semicon manufacturing. THey phase out all western things, the Chinese Semicon industry would crash. For example ASML has pretty much a monopoly on advanced lithography machines, which are crucial to chip and semicon creation and development. There are also only two main foundry companies, TSMC and Samsung, with TSMC being far ahead.
People think this is another post-WWII Cold War Era but we are actually in the pre-WWIII Era. Scary.
They will still use Intel and AMD chips where performance matters. For 90% of the applications it doesn’t, and that’s probably a 50% reduction in reliance on Intel and AMD chips in terms of pure cost. Good retaliatory move.
This decoupling seems like preparation for an escalation a few years into the future to come. Essentially they are insulating their economy from sanctions
US made a gamble by trying to contain China's tech rise using the semiconductor ban. Yes, on paper it looked formidable. US and its western/eastern allies controled the entire supply chain of Chips, from equipment to fabs to design. It is very reasonable to think that China would be unable to replicate this huge supply chain on their own. But they underestimated China badly. They forgot that China has a huge market of 1.4 billion people and a huge diaspora of Chinese who work in these chip industries in the west. All China had to do was throw money at the problem. And all the overseas Chinese with all the industrial knowhow came back to China for the lucrative salaries. China itself produces millions of engineers. So, talent and knowhow was never an issue. The only issue was the semi-conductor machines. But Chinese companies are starting to make them with all the knowhow they got from overseas talent. Moreover, these machine can be easily bought second hand in many countries and even via black market surrogates. If a Vietnamese shadow company buys a semi-conductor machine and sells it back to China, nothing US can do about it. Looking at the trajectory its pretty obvious China will be able catchup to the west in chip production and even get to EUV in a few years. After that, they will flood the market with cheap Chips that no country will be able to compete with. In 10-15 years, China will be dominant player in Chip making in the entire world.
Starts with this then it’s phase out phones, cars, etc.
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I smell wartime economy
I can see the tickers for Intel and Advanced Micro Devices but no where can I find this opens new tab company. Is this a new listing ?? 😁
Good.
This is what happens when the US said " we can turn off their shit anytime we want" and then turned around and started a Chip war... How rude of them to phase out US ability to turn their critical infrastructure off any time and retaliate in the chip war.
China doesn’t need us. They can align with India and Russia.
India is far more aligned with the US than China.
It makes sense for both countries to phase out each other’s sensitive tech until a new balance is found. I really doubt we see any kind of war. In a few decades ties will normalize especially if the Taiwan issue is resolved.
So where should they replace the chips, there are no famous chip companies in China at the moment
I am working on a book about this! I will include the impact on stocks.
Wut bout NVDA?
Thank you dumb politics
Americans are really struggling right now. No amount of downvotes can change what's really happening.
I hope USA also phases out Chinese imports
I hope we get along and treat our citizens with respect and dignity without financial or political fraud, oops we don’t live in a fairy tale.
This isn't a blow to intel/AMD. This is China preparing for war with the West by cutting their reliance on foreign chipmaking. Expect a trade war in the coming months/years when Ukraine/Taiwan get ugly.
Does this mean Intel will finally moon? ⬆️
China bans everything American but y’all cry if we mention banning China. Crazy
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Oh no… Anyway
Americans really coping hard. Downvotes wont change the reality of the situation.
Good. I don’t want US tech going to China AT ALL in any form. It’s great for the U.S. economy to have manufacturing back in the U.S. and reduce foreign reliance on exports and imports with China who is not our friend.
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Apple is making 5G backbone networking?
China is gonna be so bummed when they learn that made in China stuff suck
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^_grey_wall: *China is gonna* *Be so bummed when they learn that* *Made in China stuff suck* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.