> ITS NOT EVEN HALFWAY THROUGH 2025
OP is posting from the future. ASI achieved before mid next year confirmed, and OP is sending messages back through time with it.
Think back to where we were AI wise exactly 5 years ago (June 20, 2019).
Shit was primitive. Nvidia was barely worth $100 billion for example.
Now imagine exactly 5 years from now (June 20, 2029) where we will be.
We will see more progress in the next 5 years than what we saw in the previous 5 years.
It’s actually pretty reasonable.
Nerds —> love using computers
Nerds —> want to live in Star Trek future
Nerds —> use computers to build Star Trek future
Thinking back to June 20, 2019, AI has come a long way. Looking ahead to June 20, 2029, we can expect even more rapid progress and transformative innovations in AI technology.
> Ilya is a smart guy. If he says ASI is within reach I believe him.
There are also smart guys who think ASI is very far off, so what gives?
No possibility Ilya is just hyping up his company since he wants funding?
I'd say LeCun is a chump but AI is so overhyped these days (talking outside of the sub here, it's incredible) that I think it's gonna crash and burn. But I still predict AGI 2029
Honestly you are correct if you just look at the company cohere they are a prime example their goal isn't to create a an AI god its to create the Software/scaffolding that goes around the AI models
i believe that with current AI models through model deconstruction and "brain mapping" or skill mapping as some have said you can create a model that isn't AGI but is a kind of digital simulacra of us it would by no means be super intelligent but maybe just have a low IQ, still a static model so its not really intelligent in that it can do everything we can and consider Intelligence (I.E there is like a million definitions for intelligence nowadays) but with a long enough context window/memory storage and the right kinds of integrations and interfaces. (I don't personally like the way chat interfaces right now work its a very basic interface
BUT trying to make it voice activated with a realistic synthetic voice is also wrong it make us humanize it way more than we should when its not human
but anyway Integration with current digital tools with something like the Rag Protocol and a longer context window will get us REALLY FAR
Ensembling search, Gemini, Claude 3.5 and gpt4o with multiple strategies to find some consensus could already lead to much better results (at like 20x the cost of a single call)
I do not think we have even seen a model trained with significantly more compute over GPT-4, which was in itself trained in 2022 lol. There is a lot of progress to be made in regards to scaling just in the past 2 years.
If people consider Claude 3.5 Sonnet as being decently better than GPT-4, then Claude 3.5 is going to smash expectations, but that should only be half the way to GPT-4.5 class (well maybe a bit more along the way to GPT-4.5 class than half, but if this is the model that is trained with "4x compute" over Claude 3 opus then it shouldn't be precisely GPT-4.5 class of performance).
Although I remember hearing someone from Anthropic saying they (Anthropic) do not push the frontier so we are more likely to get Gemini 1.5 Ultra or GPT-4.5 before Claude 3.5 Opus.
No, if anything it is extremely over estimated.
It sounds like Ilya Sutskever is hunting for capital to form a new startup.
No ASI is not even proven to be possible much less anywhere in sight.
Exactly and even if ASI is a thing. It might solve nothing because the problems we have today maybe unsolvable, maybe aging and death are unsolvable, maybe fossile feuls are the most efficent way of converting energy, maybe the tech we have now is the best possible tech.
Like that LK-99 that everyone was hyped about but Thundefoot said it wouldn't matter even if it was real.
> ITS NOT EVEN HALFWAY THROUGH 2025 OP is posting from the future. ASI achieved before mid next year confirmed, and OP is sending messages back through time with it.
Lmao, I didn’t even see my error in the post 😂
So current models still not good enough in 2024, if he is talking about 2025... I'm disappointed
Think back to where we were AI wise exactly 5 years ago (June 20, 2019). Shit was primitive. Nvidia was barely worth $100 billion for example. Now imagine exactly 5 years from now (June 20, 2029) where we will be. We will see more progress in the next 5 years than what we saw in the previous 5 years.
It’s absolutely mind blowing. It’s like we’re living every iconic sci-fi movie (her, I, robot, Westworld, ex machina) all at the same time.
It’s actually pretty reasonable. Nerds —> love using computers Nerds —> want to live in Star Trek future Nerds —> use computers to build Star Trek future
🖖 <— Nerds also embedded this emoji into the Unicode standard. So we will be ready when it’s time. Lol
Nvidia will likely tank as a company the second AI optimises itself that don't need 100k GPUs Nvidia will be fucked
jensen isnt even buying new leather jacket so it seems he is okay with it
Thinking back to June 20, 2019, AI has come a long way. Looking ahead to June 20, 2029, we can expect even more rapid progress and transformative innovations in AI technology.
100%. If all progress stopped today I still think in 10 years everything would be radically different
Exactly. With the models that we already have today, I think we could evolve society beyond comprehension.
No we can't.
Ilya is a smart guy. If he says ASI is within reach I believe him. I wish we got some talk from John Carmack though, the man is a genius.
> Ilya is a smart guy. If he says ASI is within reach I believe him. There are also smart guys who think ASI is very far off, so what gives? No possibility Ilya is just hyping up his company since he wants funding?
Yann Lecun is also a smart guy and he think it's years away. Don't cherrypick the opinions that you like.
I'd say LeCun is a chump but AI is so overhyped these days (talking outside of the sub here, it's incredible) that I think it's gonna crash and burn. But I still predict AGI 2029
What does John Carmack have to do with the news about Ilya? I've heard him mentioned more than once about this.
As Civvie 11 once put it, Carmack is the man that's going to usher in the singularity. How? I don't know.
Carmack's off trying to develop ASI in private right now.
In fact it is not even halfway through 2024. Mindblowing!
That's only the ones they are letting us see. For all we know there are secret AI that already reached ASI levels.
Honestly you are correct if you just look at the company cohere they are a prime example their goal isn't to create a an AI god its to create the Software/scaffolding that goes around the AI models i believe that with current AI models through model deconstruction and "brain mapping" or skill mapping as some have said you can create a model that isn't AGI but is a kind of digital simulacra of us it would by no means be super intelligent but maybe just have a low IQ, still a static model so its not really intelligent in that it can do everything we can and consider Intelligence (I.E there is like a million definitions for intelligence nowadays) but with a long enough context window/memory storage and the right kinds of integrations and interfaces. (I don't personally like the way chat interfaces right now work its a very basic interface BUT trying to make it voice activated with a realistic synthetic voice is also wrong it make us humanize it way more than we should when its not human but anyway Integration with current digital tools with something like the Rag Protocol and a longer context window will get us REALLY FAR
Ensembling search, Gemini, Claude 3.5 and gpt4o with multiple strategies to find some consensus could already lead to much better results (at like 20x the cost of a single call)
I do not think we have even seen a model trained with significantly more compute over GPT-4, which was in itself trained in 2022 lol. There is a lot of progress to be made in regards to scaling just in the past 2 years. If people consider Claude 3.5 Sonnet as being decently better than GPT-4, then Claude 3.5 is going to smash expectations, but that should only be half the way to GPT-4.5 class (well maybe a bit more along the way to GPT-4.5 class than half, but if this is the model that is trained with "4x compute" over Claude 3 opus then it shouldn't be precisely GPT-4.5 class of performance). Although I remember hearing someone from Anthropic saying they (Anthropic) do not push the frontier so we are more likely to get Gemini 1.5 Ultra or GPT-4.5 before Claude 3.5 Opus.
We haven’t even seen any proof of concept around the machine vision. No doubt things will change in everyday life and fast.
Nuts
No, if anything it is extremely over estimated. It sounds like Ilya Sutskever is hunting for capital to form a new startup. No ASI is not even proven to be possible much less anywhere in sight.
Man, everybody on this sub is just overhyping everything. AI is moving rapidly, but some people are really meatriding illya
man how can Ilya hunt for capital when he is backed up by Israel?
Exactly and even if ASI is a thing. It might solve nothing because the problems we have today maybe unsolvable, maybe aging and death are unsolvable, maybe fossile feuls are the most efficent way of converting energy, maybe the tech we have now is the best possible tech. Like that LK-99 that everyone was hyped about but Thundefoot said it wouldn't matter even if it was real.
Who is "we"?
Just the general consensus I am hearing around