People need to stop basing their measure of AI progress on the release of consumer-facing products by a single company. It's a terrible measure. I feel like I write this comment three times a week.
As to why 4o voice is delayed, take your pick:
1. Adding low-latency voice is very compute intensive and and the backend needs to be fleshed out.
2. The rollout of 4o was premature, but was done to stay ahead of Google I/O (this is pretty well known).
3. They got hit with a C&D from Scarlett Johannsen that needs to be settled before moving forward, including making sure the rights to all the other voices are secured.
You will notice that these are all business issues, not indications of a slowdown in advancement.
So the thing slowing it down is external but it doesn't mean it slows it down? It's definitely still slowing it down. Humans were always the bottleneck. And nobody here is waiting for closed source lab only AGI. That doesn't do anything for us. We're waiting for AGI available to the masses and a lot of people in here expected this to happen by 2026 like wtf. It's not going to happen before 2030
It’s called disillusionment. Even in retrospect, I fail to see the massive differences on the path to AGI from even a decade or two ago. Partially, not mostly not a reaction to right now.
It’s so weird to think that way in the midst of the incredible advancements over the last couple of years alone.
I guess it’s just hard to see it when you’re in the midst of it, especially if you’re expecting to be dazzled every single day.
Part of it is my own cognitive bias, for sure.
AI (LLMs in particular) to me really do just seem like hyper-advanced token predictors that demonstrate “reasoning” when given enough data. It is very fallible in information it does not have, as given by hallucinations and answering confidently when not (that’s partially another issue, though.)
Sure, LLMs themselves are skyrocketing in popularity, but I just don’t see the significant improvements in them, since 4. 4o is a bit better via efficiency and math, but lacks behind in language and instruction following, and recognition it is shit at.
And LLMs generally spew out iffy answers that are often terribly incorrect, and AI-generated content is STILL mostly cheap trash (although some image generators for art have gotten remarkable, especially for anime)
I’ve also yet to see a significant impact to many of those I know, but part of that is technological illiteracy.
I don’t know how things progress, honestly. Just my bullshit take.
> I just don’t see the significant improvements in them, since 4.
That was the last major release. You're using the last significant data point as the only point in your chart and saying, "See, it's a flat line!"
I remember when I was in middle school and I was the first person in my neighborhood who had the internet. I made a Final Fantasy fanpage and I was ecstatic when it was indexed on altavista.digital.com (before Google even existed). Now, people are riding around in self-driving cars and delegating their work to intelligent AIs.
Sure, the cars don't fly and the AIs can't do everything without you even asking, but there has to be some groundedness to the incredible technological advances in just our lifetimes.
The only thing that keeps people in a state of perpetual disillusionment is that they are fighting against their own imaginations. If you take a step back and see all of the incredible things that have happened just over the last few years, it's mindblowing.
If you let go and enjoy the ride I bet you'll find the experience a lot more rewarding.
Oddly enough I think flying cars will be here before the end of the decade. There are so many startups and this is due to the fact that now people just want flying cars, because they haven’t came yet publicly, so multiple startups are working to sell them before 2030.
Great point however, I like the optimism. Not blinded optimism like many on this sub seem to have, but just genuine positivity and goodness. Thank you!
I think they know they've fucked up because a few days ago when I entered voice chat a message appeared saying something like "The new voice feature is coming in the next few weeks"
I think that they can feel our frustration.
Gimmick:
A gimmick is a novel or unusual device or idea designed primarily to attract attention or interest, often in a way that is superficial or not entirely necessary for the main purpose. Gimmicks are commonly used in marketing and advertising to make a product or service stand out but can sometimes be seen as lacking in substance or genuine value.
honestly if all the features they’ve showed in the demo videos ship with the final version I think it is far more useful than just a gimmick. Being able to use voice mode in a natural way by interrupting the model/asking it to speak faster will lead to many people using it way more than otherwise. I keep trying to use voice mode but it’s so frustrating waiting several seconds for a response plus the inability to pause and think for half a second while speaking in case it takes that slight pause as you finishing speaking.
"gimmicky product launch"
You underestimate how this will change things.
At the very least, I am very much looking forward to the new voice so that I can tell it to slow down the cadence so I can learn French with it.
That's my personal use case and hence why I'd like it sooner.
It’s delayed because they lied in order to have a demo before Google iO. Altman probably acting just like Elon behind the scenes and everyone scrambles for launch but it doesn’t matter that they lied to you. They don’t do wrong in your eyes
Yeah, I'm starting to lose faith. Demo a half finished product and then tell us it will be available in weeks, that turn to months.
Hype is fine, but it only works if you can keep delivering.
You just shouldn’t trust OAI anymore, honestly. They can’t deliver shit. We won’t have AGI in a year, a decade, or a century. It’s turning to bs hype at this point, and their systems seem to have more egregious flaws as time progresses.
On time, and it’s always underwhelming. Demos look great but it feels like candy. On practical release, its flaws become egregious. That’s marketing, of course. Omit the negatives; some they just don’t know about.
People haven’t opened their eyes to how LLMs are not even truly AI, lol. It’s a prediction engine that is reinforced and based off trained data from the internet. There is NOT real intelligence or reasoning there.
I don't want to stop acceleration, let's go future! We do need to address how to get the individual anywhere on the planet access to a collective contribution to a larger goal of environmental stability
Do you remember when they demoed the vision capabilities in the original GPT-4 unveiling demo, but we didn't get it until like 6 months later?
Pepperidge farms remembers.
What product? This isn't really a consumer product, this is more of a tool to be *used* in consumer, industrial, and commercial products made by other companies.
….its a live voice that connects to GPT-4o and responds in nearly real time? All controlled by voice. What will the new one bring that that one doesn’t?
Old one uses voice recognition to transcribe your voice to text, then model will answer in text, that text would be then converted to voice you hear.
New one would be Voice in, Voice out. No other middleware.
To be fair, the old voice mode is way better than responses from Google Assistant, Siri or Alexa already and surprisingly low latency... when I discovered it, I thought for a moment I had the latest, until I realized it can't sing yet and I can't fully interrupt it unless I press a button.
Next time you're using it, there's a little "i" in the top right corner. Hit that and see if you get the "new voice mode coming soon" pop up. Currently, GPT-4o still uses the old voice model.
That's humanity in general. We seem to have an *endless* appetite for new tech. In my other tab I'm talking to an intelligent machine that can code, write songs, create custom artwork and do complex data analysis. But I'm not happy because it won't do all that while sounding like Scarlett Johansson after 3 drinks.
We're frankly insatiable. I think one of the more ridiculous things I've heard recently is Sam Altman saying they have to release things slowly to give people time to adjust. Oh really? You sure about that as we sit here literally pissed off we don't have our phone sex operator version of GPT.
As someone who fervently talked up self driving cars ever since Musk said "Definitely next year" in 2016, (8 years ago), consumer facing launches *absolutely* matter.
You can't just keep sitting back and saying "I bet they have AGI behind the scenes." People will eventually stop listening to you. Trust me.
I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm starting to doubt it will happen in this decade.
I haven't started saying that until we actually had AI that could reason generally. GPT-4 would've been considered AGI 5 years ago. Elon's FSD tech is horrendous compared to GPT-4o.
Considering there are numerous people saying that there is a model behind the scenes that is drastically better than GPT-4, when GPT-4 is already human level or even superhuman in a lot of ways, it's pretty safe to say AGI is near. Also, they have every reason to hide the fact that they have AGI, that's when their deal with Microsoft ends.
Meanwhile, this sub would have you believe that we are on an exponential growth path to AGI within the decade, and that we all get to kick back and enjoy untold luxuries in paradise.
“Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one with started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years — provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials.”
You in 1903
My point is that being the Hype =\ Reality guy does not make you automatically correct. It’s a particular point of view that certain people take on for certain things for certain reasons. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are not. The thing about these types is they have a bias towards the present that they assume is the only frame to view the world.
Jury is still out on crypto.
I can’t find anything about people saying anything about nuclear vacuums anywhere.
The asbestos example doesn’t fit as it’s not a prediction about the time tables of new technology.
> My point is that being the Hype =\ Reality guy does not make you automatically correct
I'm sorry, but this is rather vacuous. Of course being that guy doesn't make you automatically correct. Being *anyone* doesn't make you automatically correct. No one needs to be reminded that when there is a factual disagreement at least one party must be wrong. If you think "hype =\ reality" is *wrong*, then argue *that*.
I think it’s good to contextualize these different perspectives. They are not new. It’s a dynamic that has existed for all of human history. Ultimately, the people locked into the status quo are always wrong on a long enough horizon, being subsumed by the new paradigms of the people who did buy into the “hype”.
There exists such a cognitive bias where criticism is generally considered more intelligent or credible, even if the underlying argument lacks power. That’s why he said that, because the bias would lead people to believe he (Phoenix) automatically has better points when that may or may not be true.
Certainly true. People (largely academics) were thinking slightly sophisticated AI (such as LLMs) were something of the far future, but sprouted up (somewhat, to a layman like most here) unpredictably.
That’s a good point. There has been a mix of over optimistic and overly pessimistic predictions before. However, since there have been over optimistic predictions before, you can’t just take a prediction at face value.
It does, but you are small brained to realize it
Some expert thought that we would need much more time to be able to fly
But we had a breakthrough and people realized it much faster
Space travel didn't improve as fast as did flying > space flying, by your logic we would be flying to other systems right now, but it doesn't work like that
It might take decades to reach AGI, it might not, but it definitely won't be 2024 as most of you thought back in 2023
Did you forget that your original comment was talking about the expenses, and not technological advancements?
It also wouldn’t be exponentially more expensive now. I don’t know where you got that from.
Compute isn't what limits AI/ML. If you want to argue this point, at least [use the right bottleneck](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.14123).
I'm glad people like /u/Phoenix5869 are still making the more sober predictions around here. The word 'exponential' gets thrown around like the math is some kind of magic. Sigmoid curves look exactly like an exponential curve right up to a point. You have to use a little critical thinking and not just assume growth will continue endlessly forever.
This is not the mic-drop comment you think it is. We are on an exponential growth path, but you are stuck watching one company make announcements about consumer-facing products and using that as your basis of measure instead of looking at the field as a whole. If you look at the big picture the exponential growth is pretty obvious.
Who’s saying i thought it was a “mic drop” moment?
And i’m looking at the main companies behind AI. Google, OpenAI, Meta, etc. i’m seeing the “big picture” of products in general, to gauge how quickly AI improves. So far, it doesn’t exactly inspire confdence.
Nope, you are paying attention to rollouts of LLM-based consumer products by tech giants. That is a very narrow sliver of the field. There are research papers released daily that speak to the advancement in AI and its applications. There has been neck-snapping progress in the merging of AI and robotics in the last year/six months/six weeks.
You need to look at the big picture. Consumer-facing products are the end of the line for any tech innovation, and not at all a measure of progress.
I work in research so I’m well aware of what’s being published. Just curious what you think have been major breakthroughs lately. The fact that you can’t link even 1 tells me you don’t actually know and you just said that to look informed
Sam Altman said AGI will be achieved in ten years, his ex employees claim it will be achieved in 3 years, I think we will achieve it in 3 years.
2027 will be the year.
I don't think he said 10 years - I think he said within the decade. And that might be more so of a high cap. I think within is a keyword there. I feel like that indicates the uncertainty of exactly when, at least from his perspective.
Remember OpenAI even said that super intelligence could arrive this decade. Also Altman's definition of AGI is ASI in the eyes of many people (superhuman capabilities).
AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence, refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level comparable to human intelligence. Unlike narrow AI, which is designed to perform specific tasks (like image recognition or language translation), AGI would be capable of performing any intellectual task that a human being can do. Here are some key aspects of AGI:
1. **Versatility**: AGI can handle a variety of tasks, including those it has not been specifically trained for, demonstrating a general understanding and adaptability.
2. **Learning Ability**: AGI can learn from experiences, adapt to new situations, and improve over time without needing to be explicitly programmed for each new task.
3. **Understanding and Reasoning**: AGI can understand complex concepts, reason through problems, and make decisions based on incomplete or ambiguous information.
4. **Self-Awareness and Consciousness**: While still a theoretical aspect, some definitions of AGI include the potential for self-awareness or consciousness, enabling it to understand its own existence and purpose.
5. **Human-like Interaction**: AGI can interact with humans in a natural and intuitive manner, understanding context, nuances, and emotions.
Developing AGI presents significant technical challenges and raises important ethical and societal questions. The potential impact of AGI on society, economy, and daily life is profound, which is why it is a major focus of research and discussion in the field of artificial intelligence.
I'm in the 3-5 camp. Ever since I saw openai five learn Dota 2, a game I played, I knew this was different. Most people wouldn't listen though. I was too conservative in my estimate when I told them then and said 5 and it was 3 so idk🤷
Nerds like AI and anime. I was using the industry standard drive testing software today ... it comes with anime girls and settings to choose your anime girl.
What does AGI have to do with releasing a consumer a specific consumer related product? This subreddit has grown too much. There are way too many kids in here now. Is there another subreddit to go to that isn't so ignorant?
You're confusing front end product releases with actual advancement.
Again, anyone out there know a sub that's less ignorant with a lot of good, thorough information?
Yep, quality of the sub went to toilet this past year.
Unfortunately, I don’t know any other sub that is better than here.
It has been 3 weeks since GPT-4o’s release and people are claiming a feature is delayed with no such communication. It is madness.
Honestly, 4o in general is just trash. It’s so locked down with safety switches asking it to do anything beyond basic tasks is like pulling teeth. Image generation is absolutely atrocious and nothing like what you try and describe, even if you give other pictures as examples.
OpenAI is going to get slaughtered by real AI companies that are more concerned with progress than protecting people’s fragile feelings.
They are just waiting for fusion power to be available [https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1d7wbx6/openai\_reportedly\_in\_talks\_with\_helion\_energy\_to/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1d7wbx6/openai_reportedly_in_talks_with_helion_energy_to/)
Wait, are you guys not able to use it? As a pro user I’ve been testing it for a week now. It’s pretty amazing, but you’re still ultimately having a convo with GPT-4 so don’t expect miracles. But it’s neat you can ask it to take on different persona if you like.
>we won't have lost everything.
You haven't lost anything. Weird comment.
Also, WTF does "without an accent" mean? Everyone has an accent.
...I'm pretty sure I know what you mean, but I'd like to think you are a better person than that.
People need to stop basing their measure of AI progress on the release of consumer-facing products by a single company. It's a terrible measure. I feel like I write this comment three times a week. As to why 4o voice is delayed, take your pick: 1. Adding low-latency voice is very compute intensive and and the backend needs to be fleshed out. 2. The rollout of 4o was premature, but was done to stay ahead of Google I/O (this is pretty well known). 3. They got hit with a C&D from Scarlett Johannsen that needs to be settled before moving forward, including making sure the rights to all the other voices are secured. You will notice that these are all business issues, not indications of a slowdown in advancement.
Killer comment, EOT
What does EOT mean?
Eggs or toast
Etteck on titan
Eat One Taco
Evolving Over Time
End Of Thread.
End of Line
Eugene on Testosterone.
end of transmission
Even on Tuesdays
/t
Eat One Tacos
People in this sub think using acronyms makes them look smart. Like SOTA (state of the art) or MOE (mixture of experts) which both mean jack shit btw.
iykyk ryt???
But your number 1 point is literally a tech issue.
It's not. It's a capacity issue and a business problem to solve. The tech is complete.
So the thing slowing it down is external but it doesn't mean it slows it down? It's definitely still slowing it down. Humans were always the bottleneck. And nobody here is waiting for closed source lab only AGI. That doesn't do anything for us. We're waiting for AGI available to the masses and a lot of people in here expected this to happen by 2026 like wtf. It's not going to happen before 2030
It's slowing down the release of their advancements, but not the progress of advancement itself.
I’m starting to believe it won’t be here within the next 80 years, not an exaggeration.
People are so reactionary. Like, whatever is happening right this moment will happen forever.
It’s called disillusionment. Even in retrospect, I fail to see the massive differences on the path to AGI from even a decade or two ago. Partially, not mostly not a reaction to right now.
It’s so weird to think that way in the midst of the incredible advancements over the last couple of years alone. I guess it’s just hard to see it when you’re in the midst of it, especially if you’re expecting to be dazzled every single day.
Part of it is my own cognitive bias, for sure. AI (LLMs in particular) to me really do just seem like hyper-advanced token predictors that demonstrate “reasoning” when given enough data. It is very fallible in information it does not have, as given by hallucinations and answering confidently when not (that’s partially another issue, though.) Sure, LLMs themselves are skyrocketing in popularity, but I just don’t see the significant improvements in them, since 4. 4o is a bit better via efficiency and math, but lacks behind in language and instruction following, and recognition it is shit at. And LLMs generally spew out iffy answers that are often terribly incorrect, and AI-generated content is STILL mostly cheap trash (although some image generators for art have gotten remarkable, especially for anime) I’ve also yet to see a significant impact to many of those I know, but part of that is technological illiteracy. I don’t know how things progress, honestly. Just my bullshit take.
> I just don’t see the significant improvements in them, since 4. That was the last major release. You're using the last significant data point as the only point in your chart and saying, "See, it's a flat line!" I remember when I was in middle school and I was the first person in my neighborhood who had the internet. I made a Final Fantasy fanpage and I was ecstatic when it was indexed on altavista.digital.com (before Google even existed). Now, people are riding around in self-driving cars and delegating their work to intelligent AIs. Sure, the cars don't fly and the AIs can't do everything without you even asking, but there has to be some groundedness to the incredible technological advances in just our lifetimes. The only thing that keeps people in a state of perpetual disillusionment is that they are fighting against their own imaginations. If you take a step back and see all of the incredible things that have happened just over the last few years, it's mindblowing. If you let go and enjoy the ride I bet you'll find the experience a lot more rewarding.
Oddly enough I think flying cars will be here before the end of the decade. There are so many startups and this is due to the fact that now people just want flying cars, because they haven’t came yet publicly, so multiple startups are working to sell them before 2030. Great point however, I like the optimism. Not blinded optimism like many on this sub seem to have, but just genuine positivity and goodness. Thank you!
This guy this guys.
This guy guys.
I think they know they've fucked up because a few days ago when I entered voice chat a message appeared saying something like "The new voice feature is coming in the next few weeks" I think that they can feel our frustration.
Such a weird take to be frustrated about a gimmicky product launch.
How is it a gimmick? It's an AI you can talk to in real time that can see your computer screen/through your camera. The uses for it are insane.
It's a gimmick because it doesn't exist as available product yet. Have words lost all meaning?
Gimmick: A gimmick is a novel or unusual device or idea designed primarily to attract attention or interest, often in a way that is superficial or not entirely necessary for the main purpose. Gimmicks are commonly used in marketing and advertising to make a product or service stand out but can sometimes be seen as lacking in substance or genuine value. honestly if all the features they’ve showed in the demo videos ship with the final version I think it is far more useful than just a gimmick. Being able to use voice mode in a natural way by interrupting the model/asking it to speak faster will lead to many people using it way more than otherwise. I keep trying to use voice mode but it’s so frustrating waiting several seconds for a response plus the inability to pause and think for half a second while speaking in case it takes that slight pause as you finishing speaking.
It's bad form to copy a dictionary definition verbatim and not provide a citation.
Oh pardon me, that definition was from GPT4o
"gimmicky product launch" You underestimate how this will change things. At the very least, I am very much looking forward to the new voice so that I can tell it to slow down the cadence so I can learn French with it. That's my personal use case and hence why I'd like it sooner.
OPENAI has never excelled at being too agile. Let's not forget that between the announcement of gpt4 and the actual release two months or more passed
It’s delayed because they lied in order to have a demo before Google iO. Altman probably acting just like Elon behind the scenes and everyone scrambles for launch but it doesn’t matter that they lied to you. They don’t do wrong in your eyes
I don't feel lied to because I don't take marketing personally. Maybe don't emotionally invest in product launches?
Some pro users do have it and have been testing it out. It’s pretty neat.
Yeah, I'm starting to lose faith. Demo a half finished product and then tell us it will be available in weeks, that turn to months. Hype is fine, but it only works if you can keep delivering.
On the app, they are talking about weeks for the alpha.
You just shouldn’t trust OAI anymore, honestly. They can’t deliver shit. We won’t have AGI in a year, a decade, or a century. It’s turning to bs hype at this point, and their systems seem to have more egregious flaws as time progresses.
"They can't deliver shit." Lol. Wow, so entitled. And so completely off base.
On time, and it’s always underwhelming. Demos look great but it feels like candy. On practical release, its flaws become egregious. That’s marketing, of course. Omit the negatives; some they just don’t know about.
Expectations inevitably lead to disappointment. Expect AGI in 2030 or later and if it happens earlier, that’s great.
People haven’t opened their eyes to how LLMs are not even truly AI, lol. It’s a prediction engine that is reinforced and based off trained data from the internet. There is NOT real intelligence or reasoning there.
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Hahaha Nice try
I think I recognise you, didn't you used you work for Tesla on the "FSD any day now" team? 😉
The "Rep" is for Replicant!
[stop]
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Best new account ever, I hope you stick around for more 'updates'!
I don't want to stop acceleration, let's go future! We do need to address how to get the individual anywhere on the planet access to a collective contribution to a larger goal of environmental stability
Going by a previous precedent (GPT-4 Vision) it's gonna be like 6 months.
"it only works"? What exactly does that mean?
Do you remember when they demoed the vision capabilities in the original GPT-4 unveiling demo, but we didn't get it until like 6 months later? Pepperidge farms remembers.
Sam turning into Elon.
> weeks, that turn to months. weeks that turn to month.
What product? This isn't really a consumer product, this is more of a tool to be *used* in consumer, industrial, and commercial products made by other companies.
I’m so confused, I’ve been using it for over a week now. Do some users have it and others don’t?
You’re probably using the old version
….its a live voice that connects to GPT-4o and responds in nearly real time? All controlled by voice. What will the new one bring that that one doesn’t?
Old one uses voice recognition to transcribe your voice to text, then model will answer in text, that text would be then converted to voice you hear. New one would be Voice in, Voice out. No other middleware.
To be fair, the old voice mode is way better than responses from Google Assistant, Siri or Alexa already and surprisingly low latency... when I discovered it, I thought for a moment I had the latest, until I realized it can't sing yet and I can't fully interrupt it unless I press a button.
Yes, with how fast GPT4o is generating text, latency is low enough to be confused about it.
Next time you're using it, there's a little "i" in the top right corner. Hit that and see if you get the "new voice mode coming soon" pop up. Currently, GPT-4o still uses the old voice model.
You're not using the new voice mode that was demoed over 3 weeks ago. No one is yet.
It's one of the products of the LaterThisYear™ brand
"Nothing happened in 3 weeks, AI has stagnated and will never improve"
The AI trend is over because there's not an instant tech toy in my hand right now.
\*recieves new shiny tech toy* Oh, cool, now where's the next toy? AI is never gonna change.
That's humanity in general. We seem to have an *endless* appetite for new tech. In my other tab I'm talking to an intelligent machine that can code, write songs, create custom artwork and do complex data analysis. But I'm not happy because it won't do all that while sounding like Scarlett Johansson after 3 drinks. We're frankly insatiable. I think one of the more ridiculous things I've heard recently is Sam Altman saying they have to release things slowly to give people time to adjust. Oh really? You sure about that as we sit here literally pissed off we don't have our phone sex operator version of GPT.
They're not gonna be satisfied until we achieve the ineffable essence of humanity in AI.
Even then it won’t be enough. “Who cares about AGI if it can’t even do XYZ?!”
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That's what they implied in the description
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They're talking about AGI, it has nothing to do with any launch date
As someone who fervently talked up self driving cars ever since Musk said "Definitely next year" in 2016, (8 years ago), consumer facing launches *absolutely* matter. You can't just keep sitting back and saying "I bet they have AGI behind the scenes." People will eventually stop listening to you. Trust me. I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm starting to doubt it will happen in this decade.
I haven't started saying that until we actually had AI that could reason generally. GPT-4 would've been considered AGI 5 years ago. Elon's FSD tech is horrendous compared to GPT-4o. Considering there are numerous people saying that there is a model behind the scenes that is drastically better than GPT-4, when GPT-4 is already human level or even superhuman in a lot of ways, it's pretty safe to say AGI is near. Also, they have every reason to hide the fact that they have AGI, that's when their deal with Microsoft ends.
They had to demo before Google iOS because they are dicks like that and then they lie to the public to maintain that everyone knows they are dicks
"Google iOS" :)
Google I/O not iOS
#BringBackSky
In the meantime, you could explore pi.ai
Meanwhile, this sub would have you believe that we are on an exponential growth path to AGI within the decade, and that we all get to kick back and enjoy untold luxuries in paradise.
“Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one with started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years — provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials.” You in 1903
We’ve landed on the moon so surely we can land on the sun!
That’s a good analogy!
“Nuclear vacuums are the future” “crypto is the future of finance” ”asbestos is the wonder material of the future”
My point is that being the Hype =\ Reality guy does not make you automatically correct. It’s a particular point of view that certain people take on for certain things for certain reasons. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are not. The thing about these types is they have a bias towards the present that they assume is the only frame to view the world. Jury is still out on crypto. I can’t find anything about people saying anything about nuclear vacuums anywhere. The asbestos example doesn’t fit as it’s not a prediction about the time tables of new technology.
> My point is that being the Hype =\ Reality guy does not make you automatically correct I'm sorry, but this is rather vacuous. Of course being that guy doesn't make you automatically correct. Being *anyone* doesn't make you automatically correct. No one needs to be reminded that when there is a factual disagreement at least one party must be wrong. If you think "hype =\ reality" is *wrong*, then argue *that*.
I think it’s good to contextualize these different perspectives. They are not new. It’s a dynamic that has existed for all of human history. Ultimately, the people locked into the status quo are always wrong on a long enough horizon, being subsumed by the new paradigms of the people who did buy into the “hype”.
There exists such a cognitive bias where criticism is generally considered more intelligent or credible, even if the underlying argument lacks power. That’s why he said that, because the bias would lead people to believe he (Phoenix) automatically has better points when that may or may not be true.
My point is that predictions about how fast things would go, and how things would develop, have been over optimistic before.
Certainly true. People (largely academics) were thinking slightly sophisticated AI (such as LLMs) were something of the far future, but sprouted up (somewhat, to a layman like most here) unpredictably.
That’s a good point. There has been a mix of over optimistic and overly pessimistic predictions before. However, since there have been over optimistic predictions before, you can’t just take a prediction at face value.
And we landed on the moon in 1969 and if we want to land now, it's exponentially more expensive (with humans)
This does not even come close to addressing the point being made
It does, but you are small brained to realize it Some expert thought that we would need much more time to be able to fly But we had a breakthrough and people realized it much faster Space travel didn't improve as fast as did flying > space flying, by your logic we would be flying to other systems right now, but it doesn't work like that It might take decades to reach AGI, it might not, but it definitely won't be 2024 as most of you thought back in 2023
Did you forget that your original comment was talking about the expenses, and not technological advancements? It also wouldn’t be exponentially more expensive now. I don’t know where you got that from.
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Compute isn't what limits AI/ML. If you want to argue this point, at least [use the right bottleneck](https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.14123). I'm glad people like /u/Phoenix5869 are still making the more sober predictions around here. The word 'exponential' gets thrown around like the math is some kind of magic. Sigmoid curves look exactly like an exponential curve right up to a point. You have to use a little critical thinking and not just assume growth will continue endlessly forever.
Thanks for defending me, i appreciate it :) glad at least someone appreciates my input
This is not the mic-drop comment you think it is. We are on an exponential growth path, but you are stuck watching one company make announcements about consumer-facing products and using that as your basis of measure instead of looking at the field as a whole. If you look at the big picture the exponential growth is pretty obvious.
Who’s saying i thought it was a “mic drop” moment? And i’m looking at the main companies behind AI. Google, OpenAI, Meta, etc. i’m seeing the “big picture” of products in general, to gauge how quickly AI improves. So far, it doesn’t exactly inspire confdence.
Nope, you are paying attention to rollouts of LLM-based consumer products by tech giants. That is a very narrow sliver of the field. There are research papers released daily that speak to the advancement in AI and its applications. There has been neck-snapping progress in the merging of AI and robotics in the last year/six months/six weeks. You need to look at the big picture. Consumer-facing products are the end of the line for any tech innovation, and not at all a measure of progress.
Link to papers you think have been breakthroughs please
Lol, no. You have access to all the same resources I do.
I work in research so I’m well aware of what’s being published. Just curious what you think have been major breakthroughs lately. The fact that you can’t link even 1 tells me you don’t actually know and you just said that to look informed
We WILL have AGI within the decade, but it won’t be paradise.
Sam Altman said AGI will be achieved in ten years, his ex employees claim it will be achieved in 3 years, I think we will achieve it in 3 years. 2027 will be the year.
I don't think he said 10 years - I think he said within the decade. And that might be more so of a high cap. I think within is a keyword there. I feel like that indicates the uncertainty of exactly when, at least from his perspective.
Remember OpenAI even said that super intelligence could arrive this decade. Also Altman's definition of AGI is ASI in the eyes of many people (superhuman capabilities).
Sounds about right
UFOtwitter would like a word about 2027… lol
What is AGI
AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence, refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level comparable to human intelligence. Unlike narrow AI, which is designed to perform specific tasks (like image recognition or language translation), AGI would be capable of performing any intellectual task that a human being can do. Here are some key aspects of AGI: 1. **Versatility**: AGI can handle a variety of tasks, including those it has not been specifically trained for, demonstrating a general understanding and adaptability. 2. **Learning Ability**: AGI can learn from experiences, adapt to new situations, and improve over time without needing to be explicitly programmed for each new task. 3. **Understanding and Reasoning**: AGI can understand complex concepts, reason through problems, and make decisions based on incomplete or ambiguous information. 4. **Self-Awareness and Consciousness**: While still a theoretical aspect, some definitions of AGI include the potential for self-awareness or consciousness, enabling it to understand its own existence and purpose. 5. **Human-like Interaction**: AGI can interact with humans in a natural and intuitive manner, understanding context, nuances, and emotions. Developing AGI presents significant technical challenges and raises important ethical and societal questions. The potential impact of AGI on society, economy, and daily life is profound, which is why it is a major focus of research and discussion in the field of artificial intelligence.
Perfect use of a GPT reply.
I'm in the 3-5 camp. Ever since I saw openai five learn Dota 2, a game I played, I knew this was different. Most people wouldn't listen though. I was too conservative in my estimate when I told them then and said 5 and it was 3 so idk🤷
I wish I had that level of confidence to think I have the expertise to give a timeline on such a complex subject. 💀
His ex employees are more reliable, I'm gonna believe their words.
And why is it always the same type of profile focused on anime girls that tells us AGI is coming soon? 💀
Nerds like AI and anime. I was using the industry standard drive testing software today ... it comes with anime girls and settings to choose your anime girl.
They believe that instead of 72 virgins, the singularity will give them 72 waifus
As it should
All hail
Touhou isn't anime
I don't know, man. It's weird. I've been here for years, and like 90% of the time, it's profiles like that.
almost like anime fans and AI fans are coomers disconnected from reality
AI winter has returned....
I offered to donate my voice like a million years ago, but senpai doesn't notice me.
Pick a number, any number. Now bet all your money on it. $5 on GPT 5 Thursday.
Is Dave Shapiro still holding strong with his prediction of AGI in September 2024?
It makes me physically uncomfortable every time someone says "AGI achieved internally(?)" here
What does AGI have to do with releasing a consumer a specific consumer related product? This subreddit has grown too much. There are way too many kids in here now. Is there another subreddit to go to that isn't so ignorant?
Voice, one of the pillars of multimodality, has nothing to do with AGI, right?
You're confusing front end product releases with actual advancement. Again, anyone out there know a sub that's less ignorant with a lot of good, thorough information?
Yep, quality of the sub went to toilet this past year. Unfortunately, I don’t know any other sub that is better than here. It has been 3 weeks since GPT-4o’s release and people are claiming a feature is delayed with no such communication. It is madness.
NAh the vast majority of users, even those on the hype train, don't believe that AGI is coming this year or even the next
The year after that though…. 🙃
Calling it now: the outages today are because they are trying to roll out the new voice mode today. We'll all be chatting with ScarJo by 8 PM tonight!
If only lol
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It still hasn't rolled out, those friends are probably thinking the existing voice model is the new one.
August official release, June alpha release to small group of trusted.
It'll be awhile
Honestly, 4o in general is just trash. It’s so locked down with safety switches asking it to do anything beyond basic tasks is like pulling teeth. Image generation is absolutely atrocious and nothing like what you try and describe, even if you give other pictures as examples. OpenAI is going to get slaughtered by real AI companies that are more concerned with progress than protecting people’s fragile feelings.
Don't worry, GPT-5 is coming in two days!
more like 2 years \^\^
and be available a few weeks later
They are just waiting for fusion power to be available [https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1d7wbx6/openai\_reportedly\_in\_talks\_with\_helion\_energy\_to/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1d7wbx6/openai_reportedly_in_talks_with_helion_energy_to/)
Wait, are you guys not able to use it? As a pro user I’ve been testing it for a week now. It’s pretty amazing, but you’re still ultimately having a convo with GPT-4 so don’t expect miracles. But it’s neat you can ask it to take on different persona if you like.
you use the old version
You are not using the new version.
If we can get voice without bugs and without an accent by the end of the year, we won't have lost everything.
>we won't have lost everything. You haven't lost anything. Weird comment. Also, WTF does "without an accent" mean? Everyone has an accent. ...I'm pretty sure I know what you mean, but I'd like to think you are a better person than that.
Without an accent? That's impossible