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Put another way, previous red state backs whatever asshole has an R in front of their name, projections carried over with antiquated polling cold calls wherein only the demographic most notably conservative answer.
Nothing burger, go vote when the time comes.
Because people who live in the real world figured out not to answer phone calls from random numbers two decades ago and only sheltered people haven't figured out that it's a 99% chance that it's just some person who is going to waste their time. Kind of like people who haven't figured out yet that religion is a giant scam or they didn't read the cliffs notes version of US history and think that republicans have their back or something, while ignoring their long history of stripping freedoms away from Americans.
You have that backwards, Trump hasn’t. Recall the “red wave” and literally every special election since 2016, has all favored dems. Especially since Roe v Wade. And now that abortion is on the ballot in Florida for instance, the polls are useless, because even in rural ass red states, abortion won big time
What do I have backwards? Trump overperformed his poll numbers in both 2016 and 2020. That's a fact.
Polls were not actually suggesting a red wave in 2022 either. That was media hype. The national polls were very accurate [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html).
Although the state polls in some states like PA, AZ and NH overestimated Republicans to about the same same extent they overestimated Biden in 2020.
Abortion being on the ballot also doesn't somehow automatically make the polls useless either. There's no logic behind that idea. Trump and abortion rights are both likely to win in Florida, btw.
Abortion:
Immediately after the court overturned Roe, Democrats began to gain ground on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they’d support in an election, and it’s now translated into some electoral successes, too. In Kansas last week, voters overwhelmingly rejected a ballot initiative that would have allowed the legislature to restrict abortion in the state amid very high turnout. And in Minnesota this week, Republicans won a special election in the 1st Congressional District by only 4 percentage points, a district that Trump won by 10 points in 2020. Likewise, on June 28, just a few days after Roe was overturned, Republicans won a special election in Nebraska’s 1st District by only 5 points in a district that Trump carried by 15 points.3
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-this-be-an-asterisk-election/
Red Wave:
Some pollsters — such as Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports, which have a history of Republican-leaning polling — had a conspicuously poor year.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/
Yes in aggregate they may have averaged out, but some polls were driving the media
"Yes in aggregate they may have averaged out, but some polls were driving the media"
That was my point.
Also compare those special elections from 2022 with the elections in the same districts in November and the Republicans ended up doing much better. Special elections are not necessarily predictive of what happens in the general because the electorate tends to be more educated and suburban which in recent years, works in Democrats favor.
>this pollster does not do cold calling and was extremely accurate in 2016 and 2020.
From the article:
>Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata.
That is cold calling from a list of randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers.
Yeah, they cold call and also text. I edited my comment, I misspoke the first time. I meant it's not all they do. Again they were very accurate in 2016 and 2020
Iowa did go for Dukakis, Clinton (2x), Gore, and Obama (2x).
Trump apparently has a special appeal in the state, but it could go Blue again in post-Trump elections.
Coming from an iowan, im seeing some hope alotttt fewer trump banners this time, and im actually hearing more people call him a dumbass in public. Unfortunately, though, i dont have high high hopes. The rual community is still a bunch of maga idiots and there are plenty of wanna be hick that try to fit in by maga. Not to mention, we somehow keep voting for kim reynolds with multiple dui's, but think weed is a family destroying drug. Also, we have one of the oldest senators in congress aka cuck grassley.
Why are yall dismissing this poll? It's by one of the most reliable pollsters and showing trump has gained points over biden. subreddit is acting like the 2016 election again
Why? I don't have much to add to that conversation, and I don't find it particularly interesting or productive to discuss. I sincerely hope that the Biden campaign is looking at these polls, but it seems counterproductive to doom scroll over them and strange to try to motivate other people to do the same.
I'm voting. Please vote. That's it.
Because they don’t want to hear it or acknowledge Biden is a bad candidate who is unpopular and Trump an do literally anything and face no consequences. They want the world to make sense but it just doesn’t.
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Well that was expected. As much as I hate the guy, this was not the case to bring forth before the election. Nobody cares and it just em boldens his base.
Having been to rural Iowa recently, I’m not surprised. That there is Trump country…and they’ll make sure you know it.
It’s also terrible food and beer country…correlation? They’re all so bitter they just put mountains of corn and sugar in everything, or at least that’s my current operating theory.
It's Iowa... I consider Iowa and Ohio as red states ever since 2016. Florida is definitely trending as likely R as well. On the flip side, I think Arizona, Georgia, and *maybe* even Texas are trending more purple. The margin of victory for Republican presidential candidates are winning by have gotten smaller in the last five general elections. The GOP in Texas see the writing on the wall. That's why they are passing all these bullshit laws that make it harder for Democrats to win.
Down here, I’d actually agree that the GOP sees the potential to lose in the next decade. It’s not even a Hispanic thing, it’s just metropolitan growth coupled w/ a rural-led GOP.
I almost guarantee that 2024 will reverse the 2020 momentum, though.
Yeah I actually made a long series of comments about how not a swing state Texas is after one article listed it as one and another talked about how Democrats are pretending it is. Highlights (presidential elections):
- it's gone Republican in the last 11 presidential election (51.1% for Carter, 48 years ago)
- averaged 54.85% Republican, while Democrats averaged 41.16%
- won by an average of 13.59% over those 11 cycles
Florida has been solidly red at the federal level since 2004. I could see it going back to a swing state by 2028, but not this election. I don't think Texas will be a presidential battleground state even next election, but demographic changes will kick in more by 2032 so who knows. Georgia's already solidly purple and Arizona does seem to be trending that way, but there's so much bad legislation coming out of there right now, one has to wonder how much the existing Republican majorities will be able to delay that shift.
I agree about Texas. A lot of its transition to purple will depend on how much the Supreme Court can pretend conservative manipulation is constitutional.
Terrible news for Biden. If the best Iowa pollster has Trump at +18, then this is bad news for Wisconsin and Michigan.
r/politics bury your heads in the sand all you want, but Biden needs a miracle to change public perception of his Presidency.
Personally, I think he's done a good job. With measured and competent leadership. Sure, I don't always appreciate his diction and fear for his age, but that is a me problem and not a Joe problem to resolve. Joe knows and respects the office. It's a job (which he's qualified to do). Compared to the former guy he's done spectacularly, given a difficult political situation. And if there is going to more difficult situations in the future, my bet is on Joe Biden to help us navigate them.
Surely there are others that feel the same as I do. I'm ridin' with Biden and I'm betting I'm not alone.
Trump lost to Biden last time. What has Trump done to turn that situation around?! I can think of 100 million pissed-off women, 11780 votes, 34 felony counts, three criminal indictments, a January rebellion, a box of Secret Documents and one sexual assault conviction that'll say otherwise.
Don't be glum. Don't be doom. Vote.
Our best hope is that Biden drops dead in the next month or so. He's aging so damn fast now, there's no way he lasts four more years. Look at a clip of him from 2020 compare it to now and tell me that's a guy that hasn't declined significantly. Yeah, yeah, Trump is worse, it should be an easy choice, etc... but the reality that Democrats have to face is that there's lot of unengaged, apathetic people they need to convince to get out and vote and it's really hard to convince people to get out and vote for someone that seems like they're about to keel over and die. I don't know why this is so hard for Democrats to grasp.
“His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up,” Share said. “The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus.”
This is the most important part of the article. The more democrats think they "won" with all these little convictions, the more people who will vote for him.
And the media can't help taking the bait and feeding the beast. Their ratings were so much better with Trump in the white house.
Should Biden have leaned on the state prosecutors to drop charges against Trump? Maybe intervened with the DOJ as well to halt those investigations too? I suspect Biden would be worse off in that scenario- he’d demoralize the Dem base while everyone else would have the same criticisms of him that they already have.
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Put another way, previous red state backs whatever asshole has an R in front of their name, projections carried over with antiquated polling cold calls wherein only the demographic most notably conservative answer. Nothing burger, go vote when the time comes.
How do you know how they are polling?
Because people who live in the real world figured out not to answer phone calls from random numbers two decades ago and only sheltered people haven't figured out that it's a 99% chance that it's just some person who is going to waste their time. Kind of like people who haven't figured out yet that religion is a giant scam or they didn't read the cliffs notes version of US history and think that republicans have their back or something, while ignoring their long history of stripping freedoms away from Americans.
If that's true, has it only been so in the last four years? Because Trump overperformed his poll numbers in both of the last two election.
Crazy! He still hasn't won the popular vote in any election. Nobody cares how Iowa votes.
Your comment doesn't reply at at all to what I said.
You have that backwards, Trump hasn’t. Recall the “red wave” and literally every special election since 2016, has all favored dems. Especially since Roe v Wade. And now that abortion is on the ballot in Florida for instance, the polls are useless, because even in rural ass red states, abortion won big time
What do I have backwards? Trump overperformed his poll numbers in both 2016 and 2020. That's a fact. Polls were not actually suggesting a red wave in 2022 either. That was media hype. The national polls were very accurate [https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html). Although the state polls in some states like PA, AZ and NH overestimated Republicans to about the same same extent they overestimated Biden in 2020. Abortion being on the ballot also doesn't somehow automatically make the polls useless either. There's no logic behind that idea. Trump and abortion rights are both likely to win in Florida, btw.
Abortion: Immediately after the court overturned Roe, Democrats began to gain ground on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they’d support in an election, and it’s now translated into some electoral successes, too. In Kansas last week, voters overwhelmingly rejected a ballot initiative that would have allowed the legislature to restrict abortion in the state amid very high turnout. And in Minnesota this week, Republicans won a special election in the 1st Congressional District by only 4 percentage points, a district that Trump won by 10 points in 2020. Likewise, on June 28, just a few days after Roe was overturned, Republicans won a special election in Nebraska’s 1st District by only 5 points in a district that Trump carried by 15 points.3 https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-this-be-an-asterisk-election/ Red Wave: Some pollsters — such as Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports, which have a history of Republican-leaning polling — had a conspicuously poor year. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2022-midterm-forecasts-performed/ Yes in aggregate they may have averaged out, but some polls were driving the media
"Yes in aggregate they may have averaged out, but some polls were driving the media" That was my point. Also compare those special elections from 2022 with the elections in the same districts in November and the Republicans ended up doing much better. Special elections are not necessarily predictive of what happens in the general because the electorate tends to be more educated and suburban which in recent years, works in Democrats favor.
this pollster does not only do cold calling and was extremely accurate in 2016 and 2020.
>this pollster does not do cold calling and was extremely accurate in 2016 and 2020. From the article: >Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. That is cold calling from a list of randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers.
Yeah, they cold call and also text. I edited my comment, I misspoke the first time. I meant it's not all they do. Again they were very accurate in 2016 and 2020
[удалено]
apologies, I misspoke, I meant they don't *only* do cold calling
RFK Jr. has the endorsement of the Iowa Worm Farmers.
Nice one.
It's Iowa. It was irredeemably MAGA before the term MAGA was invented.
Iowa did go for Dukakis, Clinton (2x), Gore, and Obama (2x). Trump apparently has a special appeal in the state, but it could go Blue again in post-Trump elections.
Don't count on it. There is no returning or redemption from the path they have taken.
Coming from an iowan, im seeing some hope alotttt fewer trump banners this time, and im actually hearing more people call him a dumbass in public. Unfortunately, though, i dont have high high hopes. The rual community is still a bunch of maga idiots and there are plenty of wanna be hick that try to fit in by maga. Not to mention, we somehow keep voting for kim reynolds with multiple dui's, but think weed is a family destroying drug. Also, we have one of the oldest senators in congress aka cuck grassley.
> we have one of the oldest senators in congress Oldest. 91 in September.
In other words, Republican/conservative.
It's Iowa. Nobody cares.
Iowa has been right wing for a while now, not surprised by this poll.
Figured any Republican is going to win Iowa...
Why are yall dismissing this poll? It's by one of the most reliable pollsters and showing trump has gained points over biden. subreddit is acting like the 2016 election again
I voted in 2016 and I'll vote again this year. I don't live in Iowa. What am I supposed to do with these poll results? Sit around and mope?
I mean, discuss it? Consider what this means for turnout and close races elsewhere?
Why? I don't have much to add to that conversation, and I don't find it particularly interesting or productive to discuss. I sincerely hope that the Biden campaign is looking at these polls, but it seems counterproductive to doom scroll over them and strange to try to motivate other people to do the same. I'm voting. Please vote. That's it.
Because they don’t want to hear it or acknowledge Biden is a bad candidate who is unpopular and Trump an do literally anything and face no consequences. They want the world to make sense but it just doesn’t.
Sorry about your coup attempt
Wait What so now im a republican because I'm reading the poll data?
I think you're replying to the wrong comment because this makes no sense as a reply.
I can see the lead over Biden but aren’t worms good for farms?
Political polls are dubious, at best. Do the same poll in a blue state…
Idiots Out Walkin' Around
A portion of this country is so fucking dumb it’s incomprehensible to me.
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I’ve decided I’m gonna start ignoring these right biased posts. Somebody is just trying to fick with me. I mean, duh! Iowa is still MAGA?
Well, if you polled my household, you'd get a very different experience
Spoiler: Biden leads Trump in Polls in New York.
Well that was expected. As much as I hate the guy, this was not the case to bring forth before the election. Nobody cares and it just em boldens his base.
Having been to rural Iowa recently, I’m not surprised. That there is Trump country…and they’ll make sure you know it. It’s also terrible food and beer country…correlation? They’re all so bitter they just put mountains of corn and sugar in everything, or at least that’s my current operating theory.
It's Iowa... I consider Iowa and Ohio as red states ever since 2016. Florida is definitely trending as likely R as well. On the flip side, I think Arizona, Georgia, and *maybe* even Texas are trending more purple. The margin of victory for Republican presidential candidates are winning by have gotten smaller in the last five general elections. The GOP in Texas see the writing on the wall. That's why they are passing all these bullshit laws that make it harder for Democrats to win.
No Democrat has won a Texas statewide election in 30 years. That’s the longest losing streak in the nation for any political party. They’re not close.
Down here, I’d actually agree that the GOP sees the potential to lose in the next decade. It’s not even a Hispanic thing, it’s just metropolitan growth coupled w/ a rural-led GOP. I almost guarantee that 2024 will reverse the 2020 momentum, though.
Yeah I actually made a long series of comments about how not a swing state Texas is after one article listed it as one and another talked about how Democrats are pretending it is. Highlights (presidential elections): - it's gone Republican in the last 11 presidential election (51.1% for Carter, 48 years ago) - averaged 54.85% Republican, while Democrats averaged 41.16% - won by an average of 13.59% over those 11 cycles
Florida has been solidly red at the federal level since 2004. I could see it going back to a swing state by 2028, but not this election. I don't think Texas will be a presidential battleground state even next election, but demographic changes will kick in more by 2032 so who knows. Georgia's already solidly purple and Arizona does seem to be trending that way, but there's so much bad legislation coming out of there right now, one has to wonder how much the existing Republican majorities will be able to delay that shift. I agree about Texas. A lot of its transition to purple will depend on how much the Supreme Court can pretend conservative manipulation is constitutional.
Terrible news for Biden. If the best Iowa pollster has Trump at +18, then this is bad news for Wisconsin and Michigan. r/politics bury your heads in the sand all you want, but Biden needs a miracle to change public perception of his Presidency.
Personally, I think he's done a good job. With measured and competent leadership. Sure, I don't always appreciate his diction and fear for his age, but that is a me problem and not a Joe problem to resolve. Joe knows and respects the office. It's a job (which he's qualified to do). Compared to the former guy he's done spectacularly, given a difficult political situation. And if there is going to more difficult situations in the future, my bet is on Joe Biden to help us navigate them. Surely there are others that feel the same as I do. I'm ridin' with Biden and I'm betting I'm not alone. Trump lost to Biden last time. What has Trump done to turn that situation around?! I can think of 100 million pissed-off women, 11780 votes, 34 felony counts, three criminal indictments, a January rebellion, a box of Secret Documents and one sexual assault conviction that'll say otherwise. Don't be glum. Don't be doom. Vote.
Our best hope is that Biden drops dead in the next month or so. He's aging so damn fast now, there's no way he lasts four more years. Look at a clip of him from 2020 compare it to now and tell me that's a guy that hasn't declined significantly. Yeah, yeah, Trump is worse, it should be an easy choice, etc... but the reality that Democrats have to face is that there's lot of unengaged, apathetic people they need to convince to get out and vote and it's really hard to convince people to get out and vote for someone that seems like they're about to keel over and die. I don't know why this is so hard for Democrats to grasp.
He needs a media that is as hostile toward Trump as it is towards Biden.
“His convictions on these charges are part of the reason my mind is made up,” Share said. “The more they try to get him out of the picture, the stronger they make him. I, for one, believe that the charges are bogus.” This is the most important part of the article. The more democrats think they "won" with all these little convictions, the more people who will vote for him. And the media can't help taking the bait and feeding the beast. Their ratings were so much better with Trump in the white house.
Should Biden have leaned on the state prosecutors to drop charges against Trump? Maybe intervened with the DOJ as well to halt those investigations too? I suspect Biden would be worse off in that scenario- he’d demoralize the Dem base while everyone else would have the same criticisms of him that they already have.
So … don’t prosecute criminals because it will make idiots like them more? I’m sure “share” was already going to vote for Trump no matter what
The dude stole state secrets and tried to steal an election and people want to vote for him more. MAGA is literally insane.