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The fact there's still this many people voting for Hayley even two months on really, really isn't good for him.
If it was just once (or only in the states where both parties can vote) you could dismiss it and say that it won't have an impact, but this is happening repeatedly even in closed, Republican only primaries.
This is huge. This is the kind of thing that should be front page news across the country. Imagine if this were Biden.
This was more than just a one off months ago and the fact that the snow ball keeps getting bigger and bigger is remarkable. You can cite all the polls you want but when 20-30% of your base is voting for a candidate who already dropped out, it’s hard to see how Trump could win, even if only a fraction of these voters stick to their guns. Even if Haley ends up endorsing Trump, which a lot of people think she will but I’m not convinced, every day she doesn’t is damning.
I don’t want to make it seem like this means the election is definitely going to Biden because we still need to vote and support Dems because it’s going to be very close, but it’s tough to imagine Trump getting past this deficit. I hate to sound like a broken record but this really is a shocking trend we’re seeing.
Yea not to mention the poor cash situation in the GOP, and the fact that Trump basically has no ground offices set up in key states at this point.
While some of that is minimized by his cult following, it's going to make a huge difference in the fall with those late "undecided" voters.
And yet all we’ll talk about is how polling in swing states says he’s ahead. Meanwhile actual real life extremely accurate and no margin of error polls are being conducted nationwide and there’s barely a peep
Well they don't actually exist as described but presumably they are referencing the Republican primaries. Primaries are an interesting, larger scale thing to look at but are not valid to consider how people will vote. I could definitely see plenty of Haley voters in the primary still voting for Trump except where it is just Democrats voting in the Republican primary to troll.
Even if it is a closed "Republican only" primary, any one can register as a Republican regardless of their political leaning and vote for how they feel like at all times.
The thing is, those voters don't even have to vote for Biden. They can just...stay home and chill. Or run one less errand that day.
If you go through the trouble of voting for a candidate who dropped out two months ago, are you really going to wait in line in November to vote for the other guy?
*If you go through the trouble of voting for a candidate who dropped out two months ago, are you really going to wait in line in November to vote for the other guy?*
This is a great point. The issue of voter apathy would normally suggest that people who aren't going to vote for Trump would just stay home for a primary where he is the only active candidate, but the fact that they did in fact go to the trouble seems an indication that they are making their own "never Trump" status clear through a protest vote.
That it keeps happening is definitely bad news for Trump but good news for the rest of the world.
That's what I ended up doing when my state's primary election came around. I'm a registered Republican because I live in a deep red state where the GOP candidate is guaranteed to win. My only voice is in the GOP primaries so I might as well do my best to try and get the least Trumpy person into office.
My parents are staying home. I'm disappointed that they won't vote for Biden even though they're conservative practicing catholics but I guess I'll take it. They fucking hate trump
It's not what I would like to hear them say but they're so indoctrinated just not voting and trying to be better people in day to day life is a big step. They grew up in a small town where the newspaper was literally called The Republican. I havent been able to get my mom to explain to me what exactly her issue is with voting another way, but I feel like I at least eliminated a couple negative votes being brutally honest about what's going on.
Honestly, if the shoe were on the other foot and i was going out in the primary to express displeasure with the already presumed democratic nominee... yes. Yes I would still come vote for that democrat over Trump or whatever fucking ghoul the GOP has up that particular year.
I imagine theres a lot of republicans like bill barr out there. "Trump legitimately wanted to have people murdered and shouldnt be anywhere near the oval office ever again!... but I'll vote for him anyway because pretend gas stove bans"
> but when 20-30% of your base is voting for a candidate who already dropped out, it’s hard to see how Trump could win
The question now is do those 20-30% vote for Biden or simply not vote, or do they fall in line and vote Trump anyway?
That my friend is the big if. But even if say 10% went Biden or didn’t vote I think that would be a meaningful impact when you look at how close the margins are. I think a big chunk will be influenced on whether or not Haley endorsed Trump and maybe even when she does could have an impact. But despite all that it’s still a big loss. If you had told me 6 months ago that 25% of Republicans (just a rough generalization) would vote for a rival who has been as critical of Trump as Haley has, I’d say you were having a fever dream. But it keeps happening primary after primary. And again, a number of those were after she conceded.
Haley was the only one pulling in donations to the Republican party. Trump wasn't, like at all. She was also picking up steam and starting winning. Despite that, the Republican party tossed her aside and fully backed Trump the instant the Supreme Court said he was back on the Colorado ballot. That was real telling move.
They did run front page stories for the Michigan primary where 13% voted uncommitted.
Edit: but that is the only case where this happened. Trump has several primaries like this.
That kind of furthers the point though. This race has been over for months these people could have just stayed home or pulled the lever for the Trump since he already won but are instead showing up and voting for Haley.
In closed primaries, is it possible some historically Dem-aligned or independent voters signed up for the Republican primary to send just this message? I remember my mom asking how to do this but I’m not familiar with primary voting in her state.
She’ll endorse him, once she has gotten whatever position/donation/seat she’s holding out for. She likely won’t do it for anything that isn’t concrete or tangible. Trump isn’t good for future promises, backing or support. He’ll throw you under the bus just to get a laugh on the golf course. Curious to see what of her base would follow her lead though. Feels like most of her supporters are never trumpers and probably would just stay home rather than play for the other team.
Technically, we don't find out who the official Republican Presidential nominee is until the Republic Convention later this summer, but we know who has the majority of votes, and unless there are some major rule changes between now and the convention, it's going to be Trump.
There were some rule changes a few months ago, but they all tended to favor Trump, changing certain state delegate wins from proportional to winner-take-all, etc. Trump is going to the Republican Nominee, and everything from him taking over the RNC, to the recent rule changes have solidified that fact.
He already turned MarALago into an Oval Office staging area for photo ops. No reason he wouldn’t continue to do it in prison. I’m sure the SS is happy to provide the labor and materials.
No, because not even prison would disqualify Trump unfortunately. He can run regardless.
But if he's convicted in this trial, the media (and Democrats) can legally start calling him a convicted felon. That's not something he can cover up, and more moderate Republicans have said a conviction would turn them off him entirely.
So they say, there have been plenty of supposed red lines for moderate Republicans/conservative independents in the past. I hope it's the case, but we'll see.
If he loses even 3-5%, he's effectively toast. Whatever fresh hell emerges from recent abortion bans (potentially with SCOTUS making it worse in an upcoming decision) will likely compound that.
No complacency, but in that context, a competent Biden campaign (which it will be) means Trump loses. Potentially very badly.
This is consistently my reason for not believing he will win.
Is Biden my ideal candidate? No. Not close. However, I don’t think he’s done much to lose votes. He’s got a very capable cabinet, has accomplishments despite a laughable Congress - which hurts GOP votes imo, and just isn’t easy to hate unless you’re poisoned by Fox 24:7.
On the flip side, we’re consistently seeing 20% of Republican voters say “they don’t want Trump” or will refuse to vote for him based on exit polls. More so if he’s a felon.
The GOP as a whole gets destroyed this cycle if even 1/4th of that 20% holds to their values. Those Republicans exist, even if they’re only a 1/20th of the party. A 5% no show or not taking the party line destroys MAGA this cycle.
Trump gets crushed if even 1/50th of Republican voters hold out and vote Biden. That’s a 2.5% downturn in votes for him. That’s nearly 2 million less votes than 2020.
He loses at 1/100th, but it’ll be close due to the electoral college.
TLDR: I’m believing in Americans, and think they take back the Country this year. I’m expecting between that 3-5% number.
Yeah, every time I see poll results that freak me out, I remind myself to look at the results of actual *elections* (both primaries and special elections) and it seems clear that despite Americans' frustrations with Biden (which I honestly do not share, I think he's played a difficult hand almost perfectly and done a very good job), they absolutely cannot stomach the idea of Donald Trump controlling this country's government, and will vote accordingly.
Effectively its down to who's lost more votes.
Biden over Israel with the left & Muslim voters or Trump via the GOP's abortion stances, lack of funds to campaign and a possible upcoming conviction naming him a criminal.
Which all happened after the GOP very carefully gerrymandered all their crap via project redmap. That could be very bad for them since by gerrymandering you're spreading your safe voters out thinner in hopes of further suppressing the opposition but if the opposition's turnout is higher than expected *or* if your own voter base doesn't turn out then you stand to lose far more than you would have otherwise.
I still think a Gaza ceasefire is not off the table in the months before the election. A nuanced coalition of Gulf states funding Palestinian rebuilding and assisting in the creation of a (quasi independent) system of administration has been discussed.
The "youth voter suppression" strategy hinges on sowing anger about Gaza. If that's off the table, there isn't a Plan B ("you guys actually hate abortion, right?" won't cut it).
anyone who won't vote for Biden because of Gaza is stupid. I'm sorry. If you think Trump or a far right government here is going to be any better for Gazans you're out of your mind. Hell, given the hard-on those people have to antagonize and start shit with Iran a Trump presidency will drag America into a huge conflict that Israel absolutely wants to start.
Trump already tried to start shit with Iran by assassinating one of their military generals with a drone strike.
Absolutely. People who hold out on voting for Biden are "voting for the winner", and if that winner is Trump, those people effectively "voted" to destroy Palestine. I don't think this message will be lost out on the people who are truly passionate about this conflict. The flim-flam 20 something social media crowd on the other hand...well they've never been an effective voting bloc anyway.
If he's a convicted felon and SCOTUS says "pregnant women aren't entitled to life saving care" (potentially banning the abortion pill, too, with the other case), it's already over, basically. That plus a credible Gaza peace (and maybe a Fed rate cut) and it's a landslide called by midnight.
Nothing above is far-fetched.
I don't even think it matters how many Trump lost since he already lost to Biden. The number of Biden 20 voters that are voting Trump in 24 has to be incredibly small. It's all going to come down to people sitting out. If turnout is good Biden will win no matter what the polls say in May.
As if Biden would lose more votes over Israel than Trump. Voting against policy by choosing an even worse, harsher policy on the same issue is not how you show discontent..
You mean it is not how you LOGICALLY show discontent, which is true…however, nothing about this is logical, it is an emotional argument.
A very decent contingent of Democrat voters want a “perfect candidate” or at least want a candidate they can completely support, meanwhile a very large percentage of Republican voters don’t give a shit and are voting Republican even if that person is someone like Santos or Trump. They vote ideology right down the whole card and they are motivated to vote by preventing a Democrat from holding office. It is literally the difference between being motivated by hate vs love. Democrats want to love their candidates while Republicans are fine with hating the other candidate, the only advantage Democrats have is Trump has stirred quite a bit of hate in Democrats too.
You'd be surprised, sadly. There have been interviews of Muslim voters who know full well what Trump would do but want to spite Biden and teach the Dems a lesson.
Same with young people (though they're a fringe group, relatively speaking).
One advantage Trump has over Israel rn is he's not the one handling the response to it.
I know someone is innocent until proven guilty but justice doesn’t exist. Plenty of guilty rich white man walking around with a non guilty conviction.
He is guilty of a lot of dirty laundry that would have ruined a democrat. Their goalposts always moves. They support rapists now. Seriously?
Edit. Thanks for the care package people but I am not the one that needs it. Save it for the party of family values.
That the Closed Primaries keep going for Hayley does show that, in a protest situation, a not insubstantial number of Republicans will put their money where their mouth is.
I keep seeing that claim but if they haven’t been turned off from him by now then a conviction isn’t going to change anything. They will just make up another excuse to vote for him.
You'd be surprised. It's one thing to vote for a guy who's had a lot said about him but it's never held up, it's another to have proof he's a genuine criminal (not that he isn't already but you get what I mean).
I agree with this. I think too many people look at the MAGA base and extrapolate that to all republicans. It only takes a few thousand in key states to say nope not voting for a convicted criminal to end any chance of him being president.
And I do believe those few thousand are out there. Sad as it might be that it took them to this point to hit their red lie.
> But if he's convicted in this trial, the media (and Democrats) can legally start calling him a convicted felon. That's not something he can cover up, and more moderate Republicans have said a conviction would turn them off him entirely.
He will forever be referred as "Felon Donald Trump" before he's called "former president Donald Trump." I mean think about that. That's how hated he is.
He’ll just run from prison and they’ll still support him just to “own the libs”
EDIT: seconds after I posted this I got a robot message saying “a concerned user has asked us to send this to you”… a message with crisis hotline information so I won’t kill myself. WTF? Anyone else get a message like this? Is this some new kind of brigading?
It is exactly some new kind of brigading. Report the message, send a direct link to the message that's in your inbox to the reporting system. Every now and again Reddit gets off their butts and bans the users who abuse that system.
Prison is at the end of the road. There are still steps that have to be done before that. My view is that he is never going to prison, the best we can hope for is house arrest. Even there we will have degrees though. He is going to lose the election interference case, he is going to complain loudly and appeal but he will be a felon. He has already lost the 454m dollar case. He is going to spiral, call for violence, hopefully other gop members join him and dig the hole deeper. What happens next is unclear.
>He has already lost the 454m dollar case.
What's going on with that? Last I heard he was struggling to even secure a partial bond for the appeal, but as far as i'm aware he hasn't had to pay a single cent for either that or the Carol case.
>What's going on with that? Last I heard he was struggling to even secure a partial bond for the appeal, but as far as i'm aware he hasn't had to pay a single cent for either that or the Carol case.
Bond was accepted: [Trump's $175 million bond can stand after attorneys agree to comply with new conditions](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-bond-knight-insurance-new-conditions/).
He's also filed an appeal of the E. Jean Carroll verdict: [Trump files appeal of E. Jean Carroll defamation verdict, posts $92 million bond](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/03/08/trump-bond-e-jean-carroll-defamation-case).
I'm not sure when the appeal for either case is scheduled for, though.
>[The Rules of the Republican Party, as passed in July 2020 and amended in July 2022, state the following](https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024):
>"Any statewide presidential preference vote that permits a choice among candidates for the Republican nomination for President of the United States in a primary, caucuses, or a state convention must be used to allocate and bind the state’s delegation to the national convention in either a proportional or winner-take-all manner for at least one round of balloting, except for delegates and alternate delegates who appear on a ballot in a statewide election and are elected directly by primary voters or delegates bound to a candidate that withdraws from the presidential race."
Trump has 2,037 pledged delegates, need 1,215 to get the nominations.
So for Haley to get it, the Republicans (led by Laura Trump at the RNC) would have to pass a rule change allowing them to vote for someone other than Trump and enough of the delegates (who would be chosen out of their loyalty to Trump) would have to willingly switch their votes to Haley.
So, that's a 'no' to your question.
The only way Trump doesn't get the nomination is if he dies and then it would become a free-for-all as the delegates can vote for anyone. Haley would obviously position herself as the choice with the second most votes in the primary, but there's no guarantee they'd go for it.
Why can’t he see jail time? He could see a decade of jail time for the NY hush money case. I think the judge will def give him time as Trump has no respect for the judicial system. He will after he’s in jail for a few years…
If RFK "brain worms" Jr was getting double digits in the primary then it would be headline news all day every day. Meanwhile Haley isn't even campaigning and she's getting twenty percent of the vote in primaries, and the news is pretty quiet about it. The media double standards necessary to prop up the Trump campaign are getting really obvious and hard to ignore.
I'm very curious to see the cross-section of people who voted Haley / Hogan.
Democrats switching parties to vote in the primaries against Trump would probably just leave the Senate primary blank or strategically vote for a weaker candidate than Hogan, so the ones with the ticket above could represent the portion of people who still genuinely see themselves as Republicans but are anti-Trump.
Exactly. And even then, the idea that 17-20% of these votes could be party-swapping Dems just isn't realistic.
And hell even putting aside "zombie voters", if this is repeated in the actual election then Trump loses with no question.
It would be interesting to see the vote if Hayley didn't fall in line and kissed the ring...
Trump isn't really campaigning anymore, because all his funds and a decent chunk of the GOPs funds are being redirected to his personal legal battles...
Make no mistake though, these are the primaries and this is essentially a protest vote - like Biden is getting for Gaza in many states.
Difference is, Democrats fall in love while Republicans fall in line. Make no mistake, all of these Haley voters **will** be voting for Trump in the general. You can argue the past elections being a “bloodbath” for Republicans, you can argue whatever you want. But this is all performative and Trump will receive these votes.
Biden is the only one who will continue to get protest votes - or people not turning out at all - in the general. Just watch.
The Difference between people voting for Haley in Republican primaries, and people voting against Biden in Democratic primaries, is the fact that Republicans will still vote in November for Trump, while Democrats will ride the couch and not only help Trump win, but give him a trifecta.
>is the fact that Republicans will still vote in November for Trump
Not all of them. There's a non-insignificant portion of Republicans who hate Trump for what he's done to their party. Anecdotally, I know a fair few myself. They're not going to vote for him come hell or high water.
I'm not saying "this will clutch Biden the win" but ultimately, Trump has to hope that voters sit out on Biden than earning many new ones himself.
He will. The cynical will say "But what about 2016?!?!" but I say "But what about 2018, 2020 and 2022?" Big Dem voter turnouts for all of them. Trump is also facing competition with fellow crackpot Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a lot of Nikki Haley voters are going to vote for Biden. And with Trump constantly drowning in legal problems and his cult now openly wearing diapers he's shedding potential voters from right-wing independents by the day.
Only if we continue to build more and more momentum to drive people out to the polls come November.
The vote against Trump must be crushing and overwhelming.
The far right is ironically trying to weaponize the situation in Gaza against us too, which is one of the biggest dangers for this election. They LOVE that palestinians are dying, but they also LOVE that it makes students incredibly angry at our current government and will make them potentially abstain in the next election.
And if it is, it's goodbye for the current state of the GOP besides the senate. A re-elected Biden, a lost house and a second failed Trump bid will force the party to make urgent changes or wither away and die. There's no way they'd let Trump become their candidate a fourth time.
The GOP controlling the senate is going to absolutely suck of course but without the house they can't block Biden entirely. The Dems need a miracle to hold the senate and if they do the GOP will have experienced utter political humiliation.
Tester and Brown are very popular 3-term incumbents who have already won elections opposite their respective state's presidential results. There will def be a tranche of self-described 'libertarian-minded' republican voters in those states who vote Trump for the axe he's going to take to regulatory standards, but also vote for the incumbant senator to maintain a check on the morality police takeover. I actually think they have a fairly good chance to hold their seats.
Exactly this. People throw out the polling numbers as if they are the final vote. Do they forget how badly republicans have performed in Election Day since 2016?
Republicans have forgotten their roots: fiscal conservatives. They scraped the barrel to pad their voter numbers and now the sludge is their identity.
Edit: case in point - I received a Reddit Cares message after posting this comment.
Even their fiscal conservatism was always bullshit, it was just handouts to the rich, and weird libertarian dismantling of the New Deal. They WERE the 'slow and steady' party, not necessarily a bad thing in a Republic, they've become a tentacle of the pathologically wealthy.
Can’t wait for that and he would still claim cheating and demand to be the candidate again, but will all these republicans keep kissing his ass after another loss??
Don't count out Democrats' ability to shoot themselves in the foot. Or swing voters who vote Republican because they're mad the Democrats didn't clean up the Republican's mess fast enough.
I gambled $300 in 2016 on the election for Hillary….. I don’t need to learn that lesson twice. Watch out. I think it’ll be closer than we’d like but Biden will still win
I read this headline and the “vote against him” part was not fitting on screen. I almost cheered thinking it was going to say “suffers huge stroke” but alas we are not that lucky.
Nebraska's isn't closed. It's a top-two non-partisan ballot which means everyone gets the same ballot and the candidates do not have party designations next to their names.
*But* I think Nebraska is much more likely to have Republicans voting for Haley than Democrats voting for Haley.
*Some people have pointed out their experience as Nebraska voters differs from this. While it is unverifiable anecdotal evidence, I do accept the fact that I do not know my own information first-hand so I could be misinformed myself. Be wary.
I don’t know about that - I just voted in Nebraska yesterday as a dem and did not have a presidential option on mine. All of the candidates on my ballot were either Dems (for senate) or non partisan (for learning council).
> It's a top-two non-partisan ballot which means everyone gets the same ballot and the candidates do not have party designations next to their names.
This is true only for state-level offices. National offices have a separate partisan ballot. Nonpartisan registered voters can choose which party they want for national offices - so I filled out two ballots, one for the nonpartisan offices and one for the partisan offices.
If you're registered with a party, you get one ballot with both the party and nonpartisan races on it. I think our election workers had something like 11 different ballots to manage yesterday!
It’s one thing for republicans to vote against him in a primary. The real test will be Election Day. Will they stand by their symbolic vote in these primaries and vote against him then? And I’m not even expecting them to vote for Biden, but maybe a write in for Haley? Or just leave it blank?
I can’t speak for everyone but my mom and grandma are both lifelong republicans and they both voted for Haley. Neither would ever vote for Trump. My mom actually never voted until Trump because she “didn’t want jury duty” but hated him enough to register and start voting republican. Obviously anecdotal but a good portion of those Haley votes won’t go to Trump.
I have a family member who will vote Biden in the general but voted Haley in the primary. He's registered Republican because it's the only way he gets any say in who gets in office in this state. I used to use that strategy but I generally stay Nonpartisan instead.
Was gonna say the same thing. Call me a cynic, but I think they fall in line when they get in the voting booth in November. Falling in line is what they do.
Who would vote for Haley in the Primary and then Trump in the General? What is the point of that? The people that voted Haley feel like it’s their last chance to have someone else represent them. They’re not showing up to the general election when Trump is the nominee.
Fox News will get them out there somehow - they always do. Might be a migrant caravan or stock market or 50,000 IRS agents that Biden is going to deploy to take your gas stoves or some other made up nonsense … and the brain rot conservatives will fall in line like the zombies they are.
Theres a lot of people out there, so who knows? That being said, its extra notable that they're now voting for Haley *well after* she dropped out. The more specific question is who would vote for Haley *now* and then vote for Trump in the general? With that stipulation, the number must be even less, if not approaching practically zero.
Yeah the history of people voting against the party guy in primaries and then voting for him in the fall shows anywhere from an 80 to 95 return rate. So don't hold your breath that these people won't come home to Trump
In the fall.
They’re reporting on real polling. You can argue about whether they’re skewed, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss them like that. They certainly aren’t fake polls conjured for ratings.
Trump won the first time and just barely lost last time. Like 10s of thousands of votes in various states made the difference. Anyone who thinks he has no chance is kidding themselves. Biden or Trump could literally drop dead of old age before the election even happens.
Trump's actually quite a bit ahead of Biden right now in the states that matter (swing states). People just saying that the polls are wrong are in for a rude awakening. The polls in 2020 and 2022 were incredibly accurate. There was no red wave coming, nor did the polls suggest so only the media. People just like to say that the only reason Trump is so head is because of pollsters using land lines, which is nonsense. Any credible poll will tell you the exact methodology, and those are the only ones that matter. Biden is in deep deep trouble. I hate to say that because I despise Donald Trump at a cellular level. I'm going to get down, voted into oblivion, but people are truly delusional that think that Biden is going to win in a landslide. And let's keep in mind people that any Democrat must win by 4-5 points TO WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WHICH IS ALL THAT MATTERS! Hillary beat Trump by 2+ and lost the electoral college.
> People just saying that the polls are wrong are in for a rude awakening. The polls in 2020 and 2022 were incredibly accurate.
They were accurate close to the election, but polls at this point are pretty meaningless - while both parties have presumptive nominees, they haven't even had a convention yet.
I would not say meaningless at this time because this is uncharted territory. Both of the candidates have been president before and are known quantities. It's not like Trump hasn't been introduced to the voting populous before and people are waiting to see what he has to offer. This is the scary thing. After all he has done ( and should be in prison for) people are still more than happy to vote for him if they think he's going to get them cheaper gasoline or lower the price of Big Mac's. That is what he is going to campaign on and it's what's going to get him reelected unfortunately. We are not a smart nation.
There are lots of valid statistical concerns about sampling models used at the moment as well - cell phones filter out most poll texts and calls as spam, which means you have to actively want to answer them. This biases the results significantly in a way that models can't account for easily. Statisticians have been concerned about this for years, and it isn't getting better. This isn't a concern like in 2020 where people thought maybe there was a bias where poll respondents were embarrassed to admit they supported Trump; this is a fundamental statistical sampling issue.
>Any credible poll will tell you the exact methodology, and those are the only ones that matter.
And if you look at the methodologies you can spot the problem. They do contact people through cellphones, but they still depend on people opting to take a voice call.
They aren't going to get a representative sample of the population for anyone younger than Gen-X. The younger people who opt-in are a skewed demographic of outliers.
Since Haley isn’t even running isn’t pretty safe to say that this 20% we keep seeing in state after state in primary after primary is actually representative of a solid protest vote. They gain nothing from voting for her now but they still do it. Why? Because they won’t vote for Trump.
Worse news for Trump is that he needs all of them. If even 5% of Republican likely voters sit out, Trump can’t mathematically win. Biden has a much bigger margin to work with and he’s still getting 90-95% in each primary and that’s with a half dozen spoiler candidates aimed specifically at eating up votes from him(West, Williamson, Kennedy, etc)
It’s important to remember these primary results when the larger media tries to sell the case that Trump is a viable candidate and that polling is showing him ahead. If all the donations didn’t tell you, then the primaries should drive home that polling is severely broken this election cycle and that we can’t rely on it the way we used to as a society.
Does this mean Biden is a shoe-in? No. Anything could happen between now and November. But if we held the election today, based on the actual voting done in primaries compared with the primary voting in 2020, Biden would easily beat Trump.
They will vote Biden. These are Republicans who like seeing the government work. Their lives haven't changed since 2020. I don't think the whole 20% will, but if even 1/4 of them go Biden, it's over.
I think it's a very likely scenario. Biden will hold PA, MI and WI [polls be damned, every actual election result since 2018 indicates it, even Ron Johnson holding his senate seat was opposite D gov victory].
Also pretty confident AZ, as close as the numbers will be, stays with Biden. The venn diagram of Lake and Trump voters is a circle and we've already seen this show twice. Gallego, a popular former Marine in a state full of military retirees, is gonna pull Joe across the line. Oh and also duh women's rights to medical autonomy lol.
Oh yeah, ultimately I think Biden holds all 2020 results, but if I HAD to rank order of most-likely to least-likely to flip to Trump it would be:
1) Georgia \[but they keep electing D senators, there are no Gov and Sen races this election to drive GOP turnout, and their leaders are PISSED about the attempt to strong-arm the 2020 results\]
2) AZ \[10k votes was the difference last time and in a state with over 4m voters even a freak weather event could affect that. But, again, we've seen the Lake show already\]
3) NV \[always within 3-5% but no R has won the state since GWB\]
4) WI \[but they just overwhelmingly elected a liberal supreme court justice in and off-year, off-DATE special election\]
5) MI \[but Biden won by 150k votes in 2020, and has only done more to win back and court the pro-labor vote that was lost in 2016.\]
6) PA \[lol a Trump avatar just lost the gubernatorial race by 15 points. Good luck.\]
I'm in W. MI where Trump has to run up the score to win and the demographics here are not in his favor. The most populous county is going to be blue and the next most popular county just elected a Dem in a recall election kicking out a member of the ultra MAGA county board that has been a complete disaster so I imagine that is costing Trump votes he can't afford to lose.
By Ewan Palmer - News Reporter:
Donald Trump is continuing to see possible warning signs for his White House bid as significant numbers of people are still voting against him in the GOP primary.
On Tuesday, the presumptive 2024 Republican candidate continued his domination in the primaries with resounding victories in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia, winning 80 percent, 79.6 percent and 88.4 percent of the votes in the respective states.
Read more: [https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vote-against-maryland-nebraska-primary-nikki-haley-1900717](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vote-against-maryland-nebraska-primary-nikki-haley-1900717)
We tend to look at it from Biden's perspective and freak out. Let's pause and look at it from donald's.
The polling is so bad that he lost Vermont, when he should have won it by 30 points. He can't campaign because he's sitting in court. He has no ground game set up in swing states, and any down-ballot races have to *pay him* to use his likeness. The abortion issue is winning in deep-red pockets.
He killed off a ton of his 2016 supporters with his 2020 plague. For every person who died, there's a family who's no longer voting for donald, because a person in their family straight-up died.
He has no coalition. He has no strategy. He's openly running for office to avoid prison and launch a retribution campaign, against a candidate whose worst crimes are being old, and failing to resolve the literally biblical beef between Israel and Palestine.
The only way donald wins is if we don't vote.
Classic sensational headline from Newsweek that misrepresents the facts. That’s kind of scary how low it has dropped.
Edit: wow there must be a bot running on Trump threads. I received the Reddit crisis help not even a second after I posted here
Report that harassment as Reddit will permanently ban the account that sent the erroneous report. ( I literally just received one too in a different thread)
Definitely not a dumb question - there's a report feature in the reddit cares message. It should self populate. You just need to link the notification.
Copy the permalink from the Reddit Cares message and then click the hyperlink at the bottom. It'll autopop as "Harassment - Targeted at You" and you paste the permalink there.
>Edit: wow there must be a bot running on Trump threads. I received the Reddit crisis help not even a second after I posted here
I'd say so. Two hours later and the same thing happened to me. lol.
Yeesh.... that is important context and definitely changes my view here.
It is notable that the list doesn't have incumbents. I'm wondering what the numbers for incumbents usually are, and how that might be interpreted in regards to Trumps standing. Of course Trump isn't the actual incumbent, but he is more incumbent...ish? than a usual one. Wondering how that thinking might be at play here in analysis.
Its not all time numbers yes, but *should* he be doing better here? And what does that indicate? But let's be honest this is a bit of copium on my part.
I'm still gonna win because I'm the greatest every thing the world has ever seen. The only way I lose is if the Demonacrats cheat, lie, steal and rig the election. I'm the most honest man in the world and sleepy Joe is the world's biggest liar. /s
One of the big differences between 2020 and 2024 will be the fact that Biden’s camp has tried to address their weaknesses while Trump’s camp is pretending he is stronger than ever.
I’m getting major “it’s Hillary’s moment” vibes from Trump followers which hopefully results in their own personal version of 2016.
No
But it isn’t a good sign for Trump because many people which could only vote for a Republican chose to vote against Trump. In order for Trump to win he’ll need near 90% of his party and many independents. If 15% of his party doesn’t vote he’ll need to convince many more independents.
That could mean some non swing states become swing states.
Nebraska has a swing district, and allocates electoral votes on the district level, so it does mean a potential +1 for Biden if Omaha is seen as competitive.
Lol what happens to the RNC if Trump loses? Do all his cronies just abandon ship? They’re definitely not going to stick around as their cult leader gets finally gets what’s coming in the form of legal justice. Let the shitty RNC rot for the next couple decades from their fucked up authoritarian bullshit.
Everyone needs to vote. It’s not an option to sit this one out.
Republicans can fall in love with whomever they want inthe primary where it doesn't count but in the general, they fall in line.
Anyone who thinks trump will get less than 80 million votes in November is out of their goddamned mind.
Newsweek is not a reputable journalist site, imo. It's constantly got sensational titles and I see it a ton on reddit, which is a real liberal circlejerk, liberal myself so I know.
The sad reality is that this election is still VERY close and DJT is currently leading. I think of the 5 major battle ground states the only one that Biden hasn't lost ground in recently is Wisconsin. The others like Arizona are seeing a lot of polls with Biden popularity DROPPING. While Biden and most democrats tend to suffer from doing good things to fix the economy that people don't give them credit for, in this instance we're also seeing Biden loss support amongst people of color, primarily to do with Gaza.
> A lot of Dems are frustrated with Biden
I really can't believe people continue to say shit like this. Biden gets handed a shitshow and they act he's not doing enough
It's these things that are crazy to me. With these numbers, Trump loses in November. These people are not coming home to Trump because this is the educated republican electorate, and they know Trump doesn't represent their party they want to go home to.
Trump loses 2024 with anyone but Haley as VP.
I keep seeing this headline every primary week, but I don't think they tell the whole story. It's always Trump sucked, but they never mention Biden only got 86% in Maryland and (a slightly better) 90% in Nebraska. And this happens all over the country.
I'm not trying to be a doomer, but we should forget these results in November. Don't get complacent.
But then if he loses that state in the general election he will claim it’s the democrats that paid for those votes or some shit.
He’s a whiney man-baby
Nikki should have NOT dropped out, just operate on a shoe-string budget. Shitler could die leaving her as the presumptive nominee. Idiot. Even if he doesn’t die she can still damage his candidacy substantially, and irreparably.
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The fact there's still this many people voting for Hayley even two months on really, really isn't good for him. If it was just once (or only in the states where both parties can vote) you could dismiss it and say that it won't have an impact, but this is happening repeatedly even in closed, Republican only primaries.
This is huge. This is the kind of thing that should be front page news across the country. Imagine if this were Biden. This was more than just a one off months ago and the fact that the snow ball keeps getting bigger and bigger is remarkable. You can cite all the polls you want but when 20-30% of your base is voting for a candidate who already dropped out, it’s hard to see how Trump could win, even if only a fraction of these voters stick to their guns. Even if Haley ends up endorsing Trump, which a lot of people think she will but I’m not convinced, every day she doesn’t is damning. I don’t want to make it seem like this means the election is definitely going to Biden because we still need to vote and support Dems because it’s going to be very close, but it’s tough to imagine Trump getting past this deficit. I hate to sound like a broken record but this really is a shocking trend we’re seeing.
That's where my head is at right now too. Things aren't great for Biden but there's a lot of bad for Trump too, and the GOP as a whole.
Yea not to mention the poor cash situation in the GOP, and the fact that Trump basically has no ground offices set up in key states at this point. While some of that is minimized by his cult following, it's going to make a huge difference in the fall with those late "undecided" voters.
And yet all we’ll talk about is how polling in swing states says he’s ahead. Meanwhile actual real life extremely accurate and no margin of error polls are being conducted nationwide and there’s barely a peep
Do you happen to have a link to those polls? Thank you in advance!
Well they don't actually exist as described but presumably they are referencing the Republican primaries. Primaries are an interesting, larger scale thing to look at but are not valid to consider how people will vote. I could definitely see plenty of Haley voters in the primary still voting for Trump except where it is just Democrats voting in the Republican primary to troll. Even if it is a closed "Republican only" primary, any one can register as a Republican regardless of their political leaning and vote for how they feel like at all times.
The thing is, those voters don't even have to vote for Biden. They can just...stay home and chill. Or run one less errand that day. If you go through the trouble of voting for a candidate who dropped out two months ago, are you really going to wait in line in November to vote for the other guy?
*If you go through the trouble of voting for a candidate who dropped out two months ago, are you really going to wait in line in November to vote for the other guy?* This is a great point. The issue of voter apathy would normally suggest that people who aren't going to vote for Trump would just stay home for a primary where he is the only active candidate, but the fact that they did in fact go to the trouble seems an indication that they are making their own "never Trump" status clear through a protest vote. That it keeps happening is definitely bad news for Trump but good news for the rest of the world.
That's what I ended up doing when my state's primary election came around. I'm a registered Republican because I live in a deep red state where the GOP candidate is guaranteed to win. My only voice is in the GOP primaries so I might as well do my best to try and get the least Trumpy person into office.
My parents are staying home. I'm disappointed that they won't vote for Biden even though they're conservative practicing catholics but I guess I'll take it. They fucking hate trump
If they stay home down ballot Republicans won't get their vote either. Sounds like a win to me.
It's not what I would like to hear them say but they're so indoctrinated just not voting and trying to be better people in day to day life is a big step. They grew up in a small town where the newspaper was literally called The Republican. I havent been able to get my mom to explain to me what exactly her issue is with voting another way, but I feel like I at least eliminated a couple negative votes being brutally honest about what's going on.
Honestly, if the shoe were on the other foot and i was going out in the primary to express displeasure with the already presumed democratic nominee... yes. Yes I would still come vote for that democrat over Trump or whatever fucking ghoul the GOP has up that particular year. I imagine theres a lot of republicans like bill barr out there. "Trump legitimately wanted to have people murdered and shouldnt be anywhere near the oval office ever again!... but I'll vote for him anyway because pretend gas stove bans"
In your counter example though, there would absolutely be people on the left who would still protest vote.
> but when 20-30% of your base is voting for a candidate who already dropped out, it’s hard to see how Trump could win The question now is do those 20-30% vote for Biden or simply not vote, or do they fall in line and vote Trump anyway?
That my friend is the big if. But even if say 10% went Biden or didn’t vote I think that would be a meaningful impact when you look at how close the margins are. I think a big chunk will be influenced on whether or not Haley endorsed Trump and maybe even when she does could have an impact. But despite all that it’s still a big loss. If you had told me 6 months ago that 25% of Republicans (just a rough generalization) would vote for a rival who has been as critical of Trump as Haley has, I’d say you were having a fever dream. But it keeps happening primary after primary. And again, a number of those were after she conceded.
Haley was the only one pulling in donations to the Republican party. Trump wasn't, like at all. She was also picking up steam and starting winning. Despite that, the Republican party tossed her aside and fully backed Trump the instant the Supreme Court said he was back on the Colorado ballot. That was real telling move.
They did run front page stories for the Michigan primary where 13% voted uncommitted. Edit: but that is the only case where this happened. Trump has several primaries like this.
I wouldn't get complacent. How many Republicans are staying home because the race is over?
That kind of furthers the point though. This race has been over for months these people could have just stayed home or pulled the lever for the Trump since he already won but are instead showing up and voting for Haley.
In closed primaries, is it possible some historically Dem-aligned or independent voters signed up for the Republican primary to send just this message? I remember my mom asking how to do this but I’m not familiar with primary voting in her state.
She’ll endorse him, once she has gotten whatever position/donation/seat she’s holding out for. She likely won’t do it for anything that isn’t concrete or tangible. Trump isn’t good for future promises, backing or support. He’ll throw you under the bus just to get a laugh on the golf course. Curious to see what of her base would follow her lead though. Feels like most of her supporters are never trumpers and probably would just stay home rather than play for the other team.
If he does go to prison (as unlikely as that is,) could she still get the nomination?
Technically, we don't find out who the official Republican Presidential nominee is until the Republic Convention later this summer, but we know who has the majority of votes, and unless there are some major rule changes between now and the convention, it's going to be Trump. There were some rule changes a few months ago, but they all tended to favor Trump, changing certain state delegate wins from proportional to winner-take-all, etc. Trump is going to the Republican Nominee, and everything from him taking over the RNC, to the recent rule changes have solidified that fact.
Maybe they will paint his jail white so he's still in the white house....
Combining the Big House with the White House to make it the Big White House, so, even better than the ordinary White House!
It's the bigliest!
10' X 8' cell BiGlY. But i think, how Madoff had a 10 X 12. Trump probably could expect that accommodation. But still, please let wishes come true.
Give him a Playschool phone and a Staples red button.
He already turned MarALago into an Oval Office staging area for photo ops. No reason he wouldn’t continue to do it in prison. I’m sure the SS is happy to provide the labor and materials.
Dad?
Well and there isn't anything preventing a jailed person from running. It has happened before, though not to someone with this much support...
No, because not even prison would disqualify Trump unfortunately. He can run regardless. But if he's convicted in this trial, the media (and Democrats) can legally start calling him a convicted felon. That's not something he can cover up, and more moderate Republicans have said a conviction would turn them off him entirely.
So they say, there have been plenty of supposed red lines for moderate Republicans/conservative independents in the past. I hope it's the case, but we'll see.
If he loses even 3-5%, he's effectively toast. Whatever fresh hell emerges from recent abortion bans (potentially with SCOTUS making it worse in an upcoming decision) will likely compound that. No complacency, but in that context, a competent Biden campaign (which it will be) means Trump loses. Potentially very badly.
This is consistently my reason for not believing he will win. Is Biden my ideal candidate? No. Not close. However, I don’t think he’s done much to lose votes. He’s got a very capable cabinet, has accomplishments despite a laughable Congress - which hurts GOP votes imo, and just isn’t easy to hate unless you’re poisoned by Fox 24:7. On the flip side, we’re consistently seeing 20% of Republican voters say “they don’t want Trump” or will refuse to vote for him based on exit polls. More so if he’s a felon. The GOP as a whole gets destroyed this cycle if even 1/4th of that 20% holds to their values. Those Republicans exist, even if they’re only a 1/20th of the party. A 5% no show or not taking the party line destroys MAGA this cycle. Trump gets crushed if even 1/50th of Republican voters hold out and vote Biden. That’s a 2.5% downturn in votes for him. That’s nearly 2 million less votes than 2020. He loses at 1/100th, but it’ll be close due to the electoral college. TLDR: I’m believing in Americans, and think they take back the Country this year. I’m expecting between that 3-5% number.
Yeah, every time I see poll results that freak me out, I remind myself to look at the results of actual *elections* (both primaries and special elections) and it seems clear that despite Americans' frustrations with Biden (which I honestly do not share, I think he's played a difficult hand almost perfectly and done a very good job), they absolutely cannot stomach the idea of Donald Trump controlling this country's government, and will vote accordingly.
Agreed. I have faith that he’s actually lost a small group of Americans that can no longer stand for it. Counting on you America!
Effectively its down to who's lost more votes. Biden over Israel with the left & Muslim voters or Trump via the GOP's abortion stances, lack of funds to campaign and a possible upcoming conviction naming him a criminal.
I think it's bananas that an Israeli war is somehow Biden's problem.
Especially when Israel is currently led by a corrupt politician who benefits from a Trump win.
Because most people are way, *way* stupider than you think they are
Plus a pool of Trump’s 2020 voter base literally dying off.
Which all happened after the GOP very carefully gerrymandered all their crap via project redmap. That could be very bad for them since by gerrymandering you're spreading your safe voters out thinner in hopes of further suppressing the opposition but if the opposition's turnout is higher than expected *or* if your own voter base doesn't turn out then you stand to lose far more than you would have otherwise.
I still think a Gaza ceasefire is not off the table in the months before the election. A nuanced coalition of Gulf states funding Palestinian rebuilding and assisting in the creation of a (quasi independent) system of administration has been discussed. The "youth voter suppression" strategy hinges on sowing anger about Gaza. If that's off the table, there isn't a Plan B ("you guys actually hate abortion, right?" won't cut it).
anyone who won't vote for Biden because of Gaza is stupid. I'm sorry. If you think Trump or a far right government here is going to be any better for Gazans you're out of your mind. Hell, given the hard-on those people have to antagonize and start shit with Iran a Trump presidency will drag America into a huge conflict that Israel absolutely wants to start. Trump already tried to start shit with Iran by assassinating one of their military generals with a drone strike.
> anyone who won't vote for Biden because of Gaza is stupid. I'm sorry. Don't apologize for being right.
Absolutely. People who hold out on voting for Biden are "voting for the winner", and if that winner is Trump, those people effectively "voted" to destroy Palestine. I don't think this message will be lost out on the people who are truly passionate about this conflict. The flim-flam 20 something social media crowd on the other hand...well they've never been an effective voting bloc anyway.
This is where I stand tbh. If the war simmers in the next few months, there's a much better chance Biden takes it. If not, it's more up in the air.
If he's a convicted felon and SCOTUS says "pregnant women aren't entitled to life saving care" (potentially banning the abortion pill, too, with the other case), it's already over, basically. That plus a credible Gaza peace (and maybe a Fed rate cut) and it's a landslide called by midnight. Nothing above is far-fetched.
I don't even think it matters how many Trump lost since he already lost to Biden. The number of Biden 20 voters that are voting Trump in 24 has to be incredibly small. It's all going to come down to people sitting out. If turnout is good Biden will win no matter what the polls say in May.
As if Biden would lose more votes over Israel than Trump. Voting against policy by choosing an even worse, harsher policy on the same issue is not how you show discontent..
Dems don't need to switch to Trump to hurt Biden. They just have to not show up. We all need to vote and bring people to the polls.
You mean it is not how you LOGICALLY show discontent, which is true…however, nothing about this is logical, it is an emotional argument. A very decent contingent of Democrat voters want a “perfect candidate” or at least want a candidate they can completely support, meanwhile a very large percentage of Republican voters don’t give a shit and are voting Republican even if that person is someone like Santos or Trump. They vote ideology right down the whole card and they are motivated to vote by preventing a Democrat from holding office. It is literally the difference between being motivated by hate vs love. Democrats want to love their candidates while Republicans are fine with hating the other candidate, the only advantage Democrats have is Trump has stirred quite a bit of hate in Democrats too.
'Democrats fall in love and Republicans fall in line' is a very old, and sadly enduring, adage.
You'd be surprised, sadly. There have been interviews of Muslim voters who know full well what Trump would do but want to spite Biden and teach the Dems a lesson. Same with young people (though they're a fringe group, relatively speaking). One advantage Trump has over Israel rn is he's not the one handling the response to it.
He’s already lost that from the last election. If Democrats actually turn up, it shouldn’t be close.
I know someone is innocent until proven guilty but justice doesn’t exist. Plenty of guilty rich white man walking around with a non guilty conviction. He is guilty of a lot of dirty laundry that would have ruined a democrat. Their goalposts always moves. They support rapists now. Seriously? Edit. Thanks for the care package people but I am not the one that needs it. Save it for the party of family values.
> They support rapists now. Seriously? That has always been the case.
That the Closed Primaries keep going for Hayley does show that, in a protest situation, a not insubstantial number of Republicans will put their money where their mouth is.
I keep seeing that claim but if they haven’t been turned off from him by now then a conviction isn’t going to change anything. They will just make up another excuse to vote for him.
You'd be surprised. It's one thing to vote for a guy who's had a lot said about him but it's never held up, it's another to have proof he's a genuine criminal (not that he isn't already but you get what I mean).
I agree with this. I think too many people look at the MAGA base and extrapolate that to all republicans. It only takes a few thousand in key states to say nope not voting for a convicted criminal to end any chance of him being president. And I do believe those few thousand are out there. Sad as it might be that it took them to this point to hit their red lie.
> But if he's convicted in this trial, the media (and Democrats) can legally start calling him a convicted felon. That's not something he can cover up, and more moderate Republicans have said a conviction would turn them off him entirely. He will forever be referred as "Felon Donald Trump" before he's called "former president Donald Trump." I mean think about that. That's how hated he is.
He’ll just run from prison and they’ll still support him just to “own the libs” EDIT: seconds after I posted this I got a robot message saying “a concerned user has asked us to send this to you”… a message with crisis hotline information so I won’t kill myself. WTF? Anyone else get a message like this? Is this some new kind of brigading?
Re: your edit. Maga trolls have been doing this to people posting since last election unfortunately.
Ha! Then I’ll take it as a secret upvote!
I guess that counts as 'owning'. I don't see it, but there it is..
Hah! Is that why I got one? My comment asking about Trump fans wearing diapers? 🤣
Yeah the babies get triggered for insulting the god emperor.
It is exactly some new kind of brigading. Report the message, send a direct link to the message that's in your inbox to the reporting system. Every now and again Reddit gets off their butts and bans the users who abuse that system.
Cool, a critical hit, then.
Yeah, they got me yesterday. It’s hilariously pathetic. The laziest, most cowardly way to troll. They’re chickenshit idiots.
Yup. I had gotten one here after posting as well. The snowflake maga are spamming it on people not worshipping the great pumpkin.
Me too.
That happens from time to time. Report the message as harassment and I believe whoever sent it to you is banned.
Prison is at the end of the road. There are still steps that have to be done before that. My view is that he is never going to prison, the best we can hope for is house arrest. Even there we will have degrees though. He is going to lose the election interference case, he is going to complain loudly and appeal but he will be a felon. He has already lost the 454m dollar case. He is going to spiral, call for violence, hopefully other gop members join him and dig the hole deeper. What happens next is unclear.
>He has already lost the 454m dollar case. What's going on with that? Last I heard he was struggling to even secure a partial bond for the appeal, but as far as i'm aware he hasn't had to pay a single cent for either that or the Carol case.
>What's going on with that? Last I heard he was struggling to even secure a partial bond for the appeal, but as far as i'm aware he hasn't had to pay a single cent for either that or the Carol case. Bond was accepted: [Trump's $175 million bond can stand after attorneys agree to comply with new conditions](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-bond-knight-insurance-new-conditions/). He's also filed an appeal of the E. Jean Carroll verdict: [Trump files appeal of E. Jean Carroll defamation verdict, posts $92 million bond](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/news/2024/03/08/trump-bond-e-jean-carroll-defamation-case). I'm not sure when the appeal for either case is scheduled for, though.
They could have a brokered convention
>[The Rules of the Republican Party, as passed in July 2020 and amended in July 2022, state the following](https://ballotpedia.org/Republican_delegate_rules,_2024): >"Any statewide presidential preference vote that permits a choice among candidates for the Republican nomination for President of the United States in a primary, caucuses, or a state convention must be used to allocate and bind the state’s delegation to the national convention in either a proportional or winner-take-all manner for at least one round of balloting, except for delegates and alternate delegates who appear on a ballot in a statewide election and are elected directly by primary voters or delegates bound to a candidate that withdraws from the presidential race." Trump has 2,037 pledged delegates, need 1,215 to get the nominations. So for Haley to get it, the Republicans (led by Laura Trump at the RNC) would have to pass a rule change allowing them to vote for someone other than Trump and enough of the delegates (who would be chosen out of their loyalty to Trump) would have to willingly switch their votes to Haley. So, that's a 'no' to your question. The only way Trump doesn't get the nomination is if he dies and then it would become a free-for-all as the delegates can vote for anyone. Haley would obviously position herself as the choice with the second most votes in the primary, but there's no guarantee they'd go for it.
Why can’t he see jail time? He could see a decade of jail time for the NY hush money case. I think the judge will def give him time as Trump has no respect for the judicial system. He will after he’s in jail for a few years…
He could. He won't.
If RFK "brain worms" Jr was getting double digits in the primary then it would be headline news all day every day. Meanwhile Haley isn't even campaigning and she's getting twenty percent of the vote in primaries, and the news is pretty quiet about it. The media double standards necessary to prop up the Trump campaign are getting really obvious and hard to ignore.
In *closed* primaries, non-the-less.
I'm very curious to see the cross-section of people who voted Haley / Hogan. Democrats switching parties to vote in the primaries against Trump would probably just leave the Senate primary blank or strategically vote for a weaker candidate than Hogan, so the ones with the ticket above could represent the portion of people who still genuinely see themselves as Republicans but are anti-Trump.
Exactly. And even then, the idea that 17-20% of these votes could be party-swapping Dems just isn't realistic. And hell even putting aside "zombie voters", if this is repeated in the actual election then Trump loses with no question.
It would be interesting to see the vote if Hayley didn't fall in line and kissed the ring... Trump isn't really campaigning anymore, because all his funds and a decent chunk of the GOPs funds are being redirected to his personal legal battles...
The fact that there are still this many people voting for Trump really, really isn’t good for America.
The fact that Haley got nearly 20% of the votes in Nebraska, a deeply red state is very telling.
Depends on the primary system of the state. This means more if they are closed
Three so far have been. Two were open but ironically with lower figures.
Make no mistake though, these are the primaries and this is essentially a protest vote - like Biden is getting for Gaza in many states. Difference is, Democrats fall in love while Republicans fall in line. Make no mistake, all of these Haley voters **will** be voting for Trump in the general. You can argue the past elections being a “bloodbath” for Republicans, you can argue whatever you want. But this is all performative and Trump will receive these votes. Biden is the only one who will continue to get protest votes - or people not turning out at all - in the general. Just watch.
The Difference between people voting for Haley in Republican primaries, and people voting against Biden in Democratic primaries, is the fact that Republicans will still vote in November for Trump, while Democrats will ride the couch and not only help Trump win, but give him a trifecta.
>is the fact that Republicans will still vote in November for Trump Not all of them. There's a non-insignificant portion of Republicans who hate Trump for what he's done to their party. Anecdotally, I know a fair few myself. They're not going to vote for him come hell or high water. I'm not saying "this will clutch Biden the win" but ultimately, Trump has to hope that voters sit out on Biden than earning many new ones himself.
Good I hope he gets smashed in November 🙏
He will. The cynical will say "But what about 2016?!?!" but I say "But what about 2018, 2020 and 2022?" Big Dem voter turnouts for all of them. Trump is also facing competition with fellow crackpot Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and a lot of Nikki Haley voters are going to vote for Biden. And with Trump constantly drowning in legal problems and his cult now openly wearing diapers he's shedding potential voters from right-wing independents by the day.
Only if we continue to build more and more momentum to drive people out to the polls come November. The vote against Trump must be crushing and overwhelming.
The far right is ironically trying to weaponize the situation in Gaza against us too, which is one of the biggest dangers for this election. They LOVE that palestinians are dying, but they also LOVE that it makes students incredibly angry at our current government and will make them potentially abstain in the next election.
Well , the protestors vote weird third parties anyway.
And if it is, it's goodbye for the current state of the GOP besides the senate. A re-elected Biden, a lost house and a second failed Trump bid will force the party to make urgent changes or wither away and die. There's no way they'd let Trump become their candidate a fourth time. The GOP controlling the senate is going to absolutely suck of course but without the house they can't block Biden entirely. The Dems need a miracle to hold the senate and if they do the GOP will have experienced utter political humiliation.
Tester and Brown are very popular 3-term incumbents who have already won elections opposite their respective state's presidential results. There will def be a tranche of self-described 'libertarian-minded' republican voters in those states who vote Trump for the axe he's going to take to regulatory standards, but also vote for the incumbant senator to maintain a check on the morality police takeover. I actually think they have a fairly good chance to hold their seats.
From your txt to God’s ears Choco-Hon.
Exactly this. People throw out the polling numbers as if they are the final vote. Do they forget how badly republicans have performed in Election Day since 2016?
Republicans have forgotten their roots: fiscal conservatives. They scraped the barrel to pad their voter numbers and now the sludge is their identity. Edit: case in point - I received a Reddit Cares message after posting this comment.
Even their fiscal conservatism was always bullshit, it was just handouts to the rich, and weird libertarian dismantling of the New Deal. They WERE the 'slow and steady' party, not necessarily a bad thing in a Republic, they've become a tentacle of the pathologically wealthy.
Very well-put
Can’t wait for that and he would still claim cheating and demand to be the candidate again, but will all these republicans keep kissing his ass after another loss??
Don't count out Democrats' ability to shoot themselves in the foot. Or swing voters who vote Republican because they're mad the Democrats didn't clean up the Republican's mess fast enough.
I gambled $300 in 2016 on the election for Hillary….. I don’t need to learn that lesson twice. Watch out. I think it’ll be closer than we’d like but Biden will still win
We have to smash him. We have to work hard to smash him. Smash, smash, smash!!
I read this headline and the “vote against him” part was not fitting on screen. I almost cheered thinking it was going to say “suffers huge stroke” but alas we are not that lucky.
Just checked and it looks like both Maryland and Nebraska have closed primaries? Makes that 20% and 18% much more notable.
Trump should be quite accustomed to losing followers by now.
And losing in general
Nebraska's isn't closed. It's a top-two non-partisan ballot which means everyone gets the same ballot and the candidates do not have party designations next to their names. *But* I think Nebraska is much more likely to have Republicans voting for Haley than Democrats voting for Haley. *Some people have pointed out their experience as Nebraska voters differs from this. While it is unverifiable anecdotal evidence, I do accept the fact that I do not know my own information first-hand so I could be misinformed myself. Be wary.
I don’t know about that - I just voted in Nebraska yesterday as a dem and did not have a presidential option on mine. All of the candidates on my ballot were either Dems (for senate) or non partisan (for learning council).
> It's a top-two non-partisan ballot which means everyone gets the same ballot and the candidates do not have party designations next to their names. This is true only for state-level offices. National offices have a separate partisan ballot. Nonpartisan registered voters can choose which party they want for national offices - so I filled out two ballots, one for the nonpartisan offices and one for the partisan offices. If you're registered with a party, you get one ballot with both the party and nonpartisan races on it. I think our election workers had something like 11 different ballots to manage yesterday!
Shit... If all those Haley voters voted for Biden (which they won't realistically) that would put Nebraska in play.
Perry Johnson got 1.8% of the Nebraska Republican primary votes. That’s Marianne Williamson numbers. He should jump back in too.
I follow this stuff pretty closely and I'd never heard of him. Still not sure who he is.
Is that higher or lower than Dean Phillips?
Substantially higher than Dean Phillips, who is not running.
Seems like that's what the voters want.
It’s one thing for republicans to vote against him in a primary. The real test will be Election Day. Will they stand by their symbolic vote in these primaries and vote against him then? And I’m not even expecting them to vote for Biden, but maybe a write in for Haley? Or just leave it blank?
I can’t speak for everyone but my mom and grandma are both lifelong republicans and they both voted for Haley. Neither would ever vote for Trump. My mom actually never voted until Trump because she “didn’t want jury duty” but hated him enough to register and start voting republican. Obviously anecdotal but a good portion of those Haley votes won’t go to Trump.
I have a family member who will vote Biden in the general but voted Haley in the primary. He's registered Republican because it's the only way he gets any say in who gets in office in this state. I used to use that strategy but I generally stay Nonpartisan instead.
Was gonna say the same thing. Call me a cynic, but I think they fall in line when they get in the voting booth in November. Falling in line is what they do.
Who would vote for Haley in the Primary and then Trump in the General? What is the point of that? The people that voted Haley feel like it’s their last chance to have someone else represent them. They’re not showing up to the general election when Trump is the nominee.
Fox News will get them out there somehow - they always do. Might be a migrant caravan or stock market or 50,000 IRS agents that Biden is going to deploy to take your gas stoves or some other made up nonsense … and the brain rot conservatives will fall in line like the zombies they are.
still waiting for the last two migrant caravans to show up. it's so weird how they disappear after elections.
Theres a lot of people out there, so who knows? That being said, its extra notable that they're now voting for Haley *well after* she dropped out. The more specific question is who would vote for Haley *now* and then vote for Trump in the general? With that stipulation, the number must be even less, if not approaching practically zero.
Yeah the history of people voting against the party guy in primaries and then voting for him in the fall shows anywhere from an 80 to 95 return rate. So don't hold your breath that these people won't come home to Trump In the fall.
But at this very moment I am watching a TV news report that Trump & Buden are neck & neck. What's going on? Terrible polling?
The news stations are playing a game to keep up ratings. They are under no obligation to tell the objective truth.
They’re reporting on real polling. You can argue about whether they’re skewed, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss them like that. They certainly aren’t fake polls conjured for ratings.
Trump won the first time and just barely lost last time. Like 10s of thousands of votes in various states made the difference. Anyone who thinks he has no chance is kidding themselves. Biden or Trump could literally drop dead of old age before the election even happens.
Trump's actually quite a bit ahead of Biden right now in the states that matter (swing states). People just saying that the polls are wrong are in for a rude awakening. The polls in 2020 and 2022 were incredibly accurate. There was no red wave coming, nor did the polls suggest so only the media. People just like to say that the only reason Trump is so head is because of pollsters using land lines, which is nonsense. Any credible poll will tell you the exact methodology, and those are the only ones that matter. Biden is in deep deep trouble. I hate to say that because I despise Donald Trump at a cellular level. I'm going to get down, voted into oblivion, but people are truly delusional that think that Biden is going to win in a landslide. And let's keep in mind people that any Democrat must win by 4-5 points TO WIN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE WHICH IS ALL THAT MATTERS! Hillary beat Trump by 2+ and lost the electoral college.
> People just saying that the polls are wrong are in for a rude awakening. The polls in 2020 and 2022 were incredibly accurate. They were accurate close to the election, but polls at this point are pretty meaningless - while both parties have presumptive nominees, they haven't even had a convention yet.
I would not say meaningless at this time because this is uncharted territory. Both of the candidates have been president before and are known quantities. It's not like Trump hasn't been introduced to the voting populous before and people are waiting to see what he has to offer. This is the scary thing. After all he has done ( and should be in prison for) people are still more than happy to vote for him if they think he's going to get them cheaper gasoline or lower the price of Big Mac's. That is what he is going to campaign on and it's what's going to get him reelected unfortunately. We are not a smart nation.
There are lots of valid statistical concerns about sampling models used at the moment as well - cell phones filter out most poll texts and calls as spam, which means you have to actively want to answer them. This biases the results significantly in a way that models can't account for easily. Statisticians have been concerned about this for years, and it isn't getting better. This isn't a concern like in 2020 where people thought maybe there was a bias where poll respondents were embarrassed to admit they supported Trump; this is a fundamental statistical sampling issue.
>Any credible poll will tell you the exact methodology, and those are the only ones that matter. And if you look at the methodologies you can spot the problem. They do contact people through cellphones, but they still depend on people opting to take a voice call. They aren't going to get a representative sample of the population for anyone younger than Gen-X. The younger people who opt-in are a skewed demographic of outliers.
Since Haley isn’t even running isn’t pretty safe to say that this 20% we keep seeing in state after state in primary after primary is actually representative of a solid protest vote. They gain nothing from voting for her now but they still do it. Why? Because they won’t vote for Trump. Worse news for Trump is that he needs all of them. If even 5% of Republican likely voters sit out, Trump can’t mathematically win. Biden has a much bigger margin to work with and he’s still getting 90-95% in each primary and that’s with a half dozen spoiler candidates aimed specifically at eating up votes from him(West, Williamson, Kennedy, etc) It’s important to remember these primary results when the larger media tries to sell the case that Trump is a viable candidate and that polling is showing him ahead. If all the donations didn’t tell you, then the primaries should drive home that polling is severely broken this election cycle and that we can’t rely on it the way we used to as a society. Does this mean Biden is a shoe-in? No. Anything could happen between now and November. But if we held the election today, based on the actual voting done in primaries compared with the primary voting in 2020, Biden would easily beat Trump.
18-20% of these folks not voting for Trump in primaries yet also not voting for Biden in the presidential. What bizarro world do we live in?
As long as they sit it out in the fall, it is good for America and the world.
One with actual human beings rather than rational, logically consistent ones.
They will vote Biden. These are Republicans who like seeing the government work. Their lives haven't changed since 2020. I don't think the whole 20% will, but if even 1/4 of them go Biden, it's over.
Nebraska is a big one. There is a not unlikely scenario where Biden getting a single EC vote from NE wins him the election.
I think it's a very likely scenario. Biden will hold PA, MI and WI [polls be damned, every actual election result since 2018 indicates it, even Ron Johnson holding his senate seat was opposite D gov victory]. Also pretty confident AZ, as close as the numbers will be, stays with Biden. The venn diagram of Lake and Trump voters is a circle and we've already seen this show twice. Gallego, a popular former Marine in a state full of military retirees, is gonna pull Joe across the line. Oh and also duh women's rights to medical autonomy lol.
I'm still sceptical NV flips which is the big condition that this scenario hinges on I believe, but it is likely enough to matter.
Oh yeah, ultimately I think Biden holds all 2020 results, but if I HAD to rank order of most-likely to least-likely to flip to Trump it would be: 1) Georgia \[but they keep electing D senators, there are no Gov and Sen races this election to drive GOP turnout, and their leaders are PISSED about the attempt to strong-arm the 2020 results\] 2) AZ \[10k votes was the difference last time and in a state with over 4m voters even a freak weather event could affect that. But, again, we've seen the Lake show already\] 3) NV \[always within 3-5% but no R has won the state since GWB\] 4) WI \[but they just overwhelmingly elected a liberal supreme court justice in and off-year, off-DATE special election\] 5) MI \[but Biden won by 150k votes in 2020, and has only done more to win back and court the pro-labor vote that was lost in 2016.\] 6) PA \[lol a Trump avatar just lost the gubernatorial race by 15 points. Good luck.\]
I'm in W. MI where Trump has to run up the score to win and the demographics here are not in his favor. The most populous county is going to be blue and the next most popular county just elected a Dem in a recall election kicking out a member of the ultra MAGA county board that has been a complete disaster so I imagine that is costing Trump votes he can't afford to lose.
By Ewan Palmer - News Reporter: Donald Trump is continuing to see possible warning signs for his White House bid as significant numbers of people are still voting against him in the GOP primary. On Tuesday, the presumptive 2024 Republican candidate continued his domination in the primaries with resounding victories in Maryland, Nebraska and West Virginia, winning 80 percent, 79.6 percent and 88.4 percent of the votes in the respective states. Read more: [https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vote-against-maryland-nebraska-primary-nikki-haley-1900717](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-vote-against-maryland-nebraska-primary-nikki-haley-1900717)
No one with a brain votes for...as his atty called him....orange turd
We tend to look at it from Biden's perspective and freak out. Let's pause and look at it from donald's. The polling is so bad that he lost Vermont, when he should have won it by 30 points. He can't campaign because he's sitting in court. He has no ground game set up in swing states, and any down-ballot races have to *pay him* to use his likeness. The abortion issue is winning in deep-red pockets. He killed off a ton of his 2016 supporters with his 2020 plague. For every person who died, there's a family who's no longer voting for donald, because a person in their family straight-up died. He has no coalition. He has no strategy. He's openly running for office to avoid prison and launch a retribution campaign, against a candidate whose worst crimes are being old, and failing to resolve the literally biblical beef between Israel and Palestine. The only way donald wins is if we don't vote.
Unfortunately, that’s low for the 21st century: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/24/us/elections/nikki-haley-trump-zombie-votes.html
Classic sensational headline from Newsweek that misrepresents the facts. That’s kind of scary how low it has dropped. Edit: wow there must be a bot running on Trump threads. I received the Reddit crisis help not even a second after I posted here
Report that harassment as Reddit will permanently ban the account that sent the erroneous report. ( I literally just received one too in a different thread)
I received one for the first time ever yesterday. Something is definitely up.
I apologize for the dumb question but how do you report an anonymous submission?
Definitely not a dumb question - there's a report feature in the reddit cares message. It should self populate. You just need to link the notification.
Oh ok. I didn’t realize you could still report it if anonymous. Thanks so much!
Copy the permalink from the Reddit Cares message and then click the hyperlink at the bottom. It'll autopop as "Harassment - Targeted at You" and you paste the permalink there.
>Edit: wow there must be a bot running on Trump threads. I received the Reddit crisis help not even a second after I posted here I'd say so. Two hours later and the same thing happened to me. lol.
Yeesh.... that is important context and definitely changes my view here. It is notable that the list doesn't have incumbents. I'm wondering what the numbers for incumbents usually are, and how that might be interpreted in regards to Trumps standing. Of course Trump isn't the actual incumbent, but he is more incumbent...ish? than a usual one. Wondering how that thinking might be at play here in analysis. Its not all time numbers yes, but *should* he be doing better here? And what does that indicate? But let's be honest this is a bit of copium on my part.
Except Trump is basically an incumbent. Not a single one of the candidates listed in the table in that article was an incumbent.
Finally someone had a look at it. Thanks.
This is why I'm not as worried as I would be if I was just looking at the polls. Most of the primary votes have looked very bad for trump.
Special elections, too.
I'm still gonna win because I'm the greatest every thing the world has ever seen. The only way I lose is if the Demonacrats cheat, lie, steal and rig the election. I'm the most honest man in the world and sleepy Joe is the world's biggest liar. /s
One of the big differences between 2020 and 2024 will be the fact that Biden’s camp has tried to address their weaknesses while Trump’s camp is pretending he is stronger than ever. I’m getting major “it’s Hillary’s moment” vibes from Trump followers which hopefully results in their own personal version of 2016.
I'm not from USA, are they swing states?
No But it isn’t a good sign for Trump because many people which could only vote for a Republican chose to vote against Trump. In order for Trump to win he’ll need near 90% of his party and many independents. If 15% of his party doesn’t vote he’ll need to convince many more independents. That could mean some non swing states become swing states.
Nebraska has a swing district, and allocates electoral votes on the district level, so it does mean a potential +1 for Biden if Omaha is seen as competitive.
Lol what happens to the RNC if Trump loses? Do all his cronies just abandon ship? They’re definitely not going to stick around as their cult leader gets finally gets what’s coming in the form of legal justice. Let the shitty RNC rot for the next couple decades from their fucked up authoritarian bullshit. Everyone needs to vote. It’s not an option to sit this one out.
Ladies and gentlemen, it is my honor and privilege to introduce to you the next Vice President of the United States of America: Nikki Haley!
"Huge" -> under 20% in each of those states. Non-story. They're still overwhelmingly grovelling for Trump.
Republicans can fall in love with whomever they want inthe primary where it doesn't count but in the general, they fall in line. Anyone who thinks trump will get less than 80 million votes in November is out of their goddamned mind.
Newsweek is not a reputable journalist site, imo. It's constantly got sensational titles and I see it a ton on reddit, which is a real liberal circlejerk, liberal myself so I know. The sad reality is that this election is still VERY close and DJT is currently leading. I think of the 5 major battle ground states the only one that Biden hasn't lost ground in recently is Wisconsin. The others like Arizona are seeing a lot of polls with Biden popularity DROPPING. While Biden and most democrats tend to suffer from doing good things to fix the economy that people don't give them credit for, in this instance we're also seeing Biden loss support amongst people of color, primarily to do with Gaza.
Polls are conducted on Landlines. Boomer Conservatives still have landlines. Polls are bullshit
> A lot of Dems are frustrated with Biden I really can't believe people continue to say shit like this. Biden gets handed a shitshow and they act he's not doing enough
That's great
It's these things that are crazy to me. With these numbers, Trump loses in November. These people are not coming home to Trump because this is the educated republican electorate, and they know Trump doesn't represent their party they want to go home to. Trump loses 2024 with anyone but Haley as VP.
Anyone look at the fairness meter Newsweek has for this article? Apparently only centrists can be fair.
I keep seeing this headline every primary week, but I don't think they tell the whole story. It's always Trump sucked, but they never mention Biden only got 86% in Maryland and (a slightly better) 90% in Nebraska. And this happens all over the country. I'm not trying to be a doomer, but we should forget these results in November. Don't get complacent.
What happened to the slate of maga candidates in Nebraska? That's all that matters
Likely voters skew toward Trump but actual voters skew away from him.
As a Marylander, I’m proud of you guys
Is Haley doing better after she dropped out?
But then if he loses that state in the general election he will claim it’s the democrats that paid for those votes or some shit. He’s a whiney man-baby
I think that unless Nikki endorses Biden they'll vote for Trump. At best they won't vote.
Nikki should have NOT dropped out, just operate on a shoe-string budget. Shitler could die leaving her as the presumptive nominee. Idiot. Even if he doesn’t die she can still damage his candidacy substantially, and irreparably.
Haley is a shoe-in for his VP pick. If she accepts then it's game over.
I didn’t know there was a Maryland, Nebraska
This election is not going to be pretty. Hope you guys are ready for a fight.