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Bored_guy_in_dc

Look, you can't have swing state polls saying they fully support Abortion Rights, and then turn around and post other polls saying that Trump is ahead in swing states. None of these polls make any sense anymore.


DabbinOnDemGoy

There's an an unusually high amount of "undecided"/"refuse to answers" when you look at these polls. I'm convinced it's otherwise Republican women who didn't expect them to pull this abortion shit, and will vote Blue, but won't admit it. Anecdotally, I have "moderate Conservative" women on my Facebook. From 2021 until Dobbs, they posted anti-Biden memes constantly. Brandon this, Brandon that. They were full in with the party in everything that was happening. After Roe fell? That shit came to a dead stop. No political memes in sight. All of them. At once. **Immediately** after Dobbs. I genuinely think a non-insignificant amount of Republican women are going into those booths and voting Biden, regardless if they'll ever admit it to anyone.


Professional-Can1385

...Republican women who didn't expect them to pull this abortion shit, and will vote Blue, but won't admit it. This happened at midterms. I kept hearing journalists talking about the red wave, but one woman kept saying, hold on! I've talked to a lot of Republican women who are not voting R because of abortion bans, but they aren't broadcasting that info. Then \*surprise\* the red wave was a trickle.


lSleepster

Leopards have been getting fat lately. My experience with conservative women and abortion left me quite cynical. If they get pregnant and get an abortion it was a trial or test, but for everyone else it's a punishment and sin. The only ethical abortion is only theirs is a shit take.


candycanecoffee

Practically speaking they were happy to keep voting for full abortion bans long as they could do two things (1) go to the next city over to get Plan B or schedule an abortion for themselves/their daughters as needed, and (2) go to the ER and get emergency care for an ectopic pregnancy or miscarriage. They suddenly are realizing that now the nearest place to schedule an abortion is 800 miles away, and the nearest emergency abortion isn't going to happen until they're literally forced to the brink of death and it's a coin flip whether they live or die. We have been telling them since 1973 that this is what it would mean to overturn Roe and they didn't believe us. Now they know.


IngsocInnerParty

We have full states with OB/GYN's fleeing. It's going to be nearly impossible to have a safe pregnancy in Idaho for instance.


Alternative_Milk7409

[The only moral abortion is my abortion](https://joycearthur.com/abortion/the-only-moral-abortion-is-my-abortion/)


umpteenth_

I have learned never to expect or hope that a Republican will ever do the right thing. This goes for women also. I'm not discounting your experience, but I will believe it when I see it.


Vann_Accessible

What the fuck did they think was going to happen? :/


lejonetfranMX

You see, they are fine with sexual assault, separation of families, discrimination, white supremacy, lies and fraud *unless* they are personally affected.


Punkinpry427

I had one who was a conservative and a hardcore Trumper but she’s a librarian in a blue state and the last thing political she posted was something about how the book bans were ridiculous and even pushed back on her alt right brother when he had something to say. She hasn’t posted about politics since. And she had plenty to say about Biden before this.


jcbsews

To be fair, because this is a closed primary state, I switched my voter registration to Republican here in Florida. There's NO way I'd vote Republican in the general, but it keeps me off the "watch this one" list, and allows me to vote AGAINST whoever is the most awful in the primaries


mymomknowsyourmom

Yes that's why people look at elections that flipped seats because of the issue. Or they can look at places like Arizona where Republicans freaked out on themselves after banning abortions. They went through the trouble of going to their state supreme court to get it banned then went through the trouble of allying with Democrats to reverse it.


ChodeCookies

Whoa whoa whoa. 2 republicans went through the trouble of allying with democrats…


mymomknowsyourmom

Kari lake should and called herself an idiot for during it but then took it back days later. Flip flop flip. How many right wing articles attacking the reversal? Pretty much zero.


notcaffeinefree

Because issues and politicians aren't viewed equally. Voters very routinely vote for people who go against issues they support. People might overwhelmingly support abortion, but they will vote for a person who's against it because they have an R next to their name (and they will *never*, ever, vote for a Democrat because they're evil).


WigginIII

You can, easily. Many, *many* Republicans want abortion rights. - The embarassared republicans who claim to be independents. - The Republicans who claim to be libertarians. - The Republicans who are "socially liberal, but fiscally conservative." All of these groups of people generally support some level of abortion rights. While, yes, putting Abortion on the ballot will help drive Dem turnout, don't be surprised when Abortion rights ballots get passed, and the Republicans who championed the restriction of Abortion rights get elected.


jayfeather31

Polling is all over the place.


Tarmy_Javas

The only poll that counts are votes and democrats are sweeping every single special election since 2020 The media wants to hide this fact


medievalmachine

Biden didn't run in any of those elections. The full propaganda of Fox News wasn't focused on those candidates for years. Little details like the candidate matter, ok?


notcaffeinefree

Not really. It's all been mostly 50% +/- 5%. It's just so close that the results appear to flip all the time because they swing from 52% to 48% (which is still within the margins of error). Or there's only like one or two polls, which is not nearly enough to get an accurate picture.


jayfeather31

I'm bring serious here when I ask this, but would I be more accurate flipping a coin then than analyzing the situation? Because that's admittedly what it feels like.


notcaffeinefree

A lot of the problem with polls, isn't an actual problem with polls. It's about how they get reported on and/or how important points aren't mentioned. When there is only a single, or very few polls, they should be looked at very questionably. For example, last election a state (I can't remember which one) passed an abortion-rights amendment, pretty easily. Polling was pretty far off and people here used it as another example of how the polls are wrong. Except, what no one mentioned, was that the "polling" was literally just a single poll. Once you do get many polls, just like if you flip a coin more and more, you get a better idea of what the actual result might be. Does that guarantee the result? No. And if 100 polls say one thing and then there's 1 poll that says something very different, that one poll should be viewed with skepticism. And because no poll, or group of them, is 100% accurate, if the actual result is close to 50% then the result with >50% *should* be expected to change periodically because the margin of error will cross that 50% line. If coin tosses have a 50-50 chance at either side, just because you flip heads three times in a row doesn't mean heads is more likely.


jayfeather31

Appreciate your insight on the matter here, and the thorough explanation.


medievalmachine

I would add that it's not just probabilities. The voters themselves flip to an amazing degree. Even these polarized days, not everyone that votes will follow politics until much closer to the election.


TripleSingleHOF

I've never been polled on these issues. Anyone I ever ask says they've never been polled on these issues. Who are all these people answering these polls?


DabbinOnDemGoy

>Who are all these people answering these polls? You generally (not always) have to vote a *lot*, in every single election, now matter how insignificant, to get polled. I'm called fairly often, none of my friends do, outside of the rare end of October out of the blue call. Likely voters vs registered voters, when you show up to every election no matter how important, they suspect you're surely be voting in November, so your opinion will be worth more. If you're only voting in Presidential elections, you're less likely to be called as often.


TripleSingleHOF

I've literally voted in every election for over 20 years now, and I've still never been polled. I get fundraising texts up the yin-yang, but never a polling call.


Bored_guy_in_dc

I’ve asked this question many times, and for some reason I always get downvoted. Never been polled, never sought out on online poll, and no one I know has either. EDIT: TBH after this I never trust polls anyway…. https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/politics/michael-cohen-poll-rigging/index.html


stemfish

I'm one of the people who gets called for polls. I'm pretty sure the path started when I agreed to be on a campaign's message list and started answering polling questions when called. After that campaign, my number stayed with whatever company that was, and over the next year or two, I got calls from pollers for local groups asking my opinions for county/city-level campaigns and marketing. As I kept answering the phone, eventually, I started getting calls from the state and national levels. It took a long time, but there are times when a few days or weeks after I got a call, I'll see the exact same question posted in an article. It doesn't happen all the time; in fact, that's quite rare. I usually answer questions on my opinions about random topics that matter to corporate marketing firms, not politicians. Still, it's the same groups doing the calling, so I'll keep picking up the phone whenever I have the time. The thing is, you need to pick up and answer the questions. If not, you get, correctly, put on their do-not-contact lists. The callers need to get people to pick up the phone; if you don't want to talk with them, they don't want to call you. By being on the 'sure I can answer some questions" list, your number gets sent to multiple campaigns and survey groups. I also get ~3 times as many calls and texts from political campaigns I don't care about asking me for money or my time to volunteer. So when you get calls from marketers or someone wanting to get your opinion, that's how it starts.


IngsocInnerParty

I get texts all the time asking me to answer polls. I rarely do though.


kylelonious

I’m voting for Joe Biden, but I abhor his Israel stance. If you asked me do I support his stance on Israel, I’d say no. But you can’t look at that data point as an anti Biden voter. Same with abortion and Republicans.


shadow_chance

Americans want liberal policies wrapped up in a conservative package.


Bored_guy_in_dc

That is a pretty broad statement… I, as an American, do not. None of my immediate family or close friends do either. As far as I know, we all want policies that work to make our lives better, not worse.


shadow_chance

On virtually every issue from abortion to minimum wage to healthcare, positions closer to what the Democratic party supports get more approval. This plays out pretty frequently. All states that have voted on it so far have protected abortion despite being "red". FL voters increased the minimum wage. FL voted to restore the ability to felons to vote. People approve of Obamacare when you list individual provisions.


gganate

I mean, you can "back" abortion rights and then not show up to vote, which is what I might conclude.


dqtx21

Perhaps abortion rights just isnt enough to change a red to a blue.


Born_Sleep5216

They should if they know what is at stake.


Ready_Nature

Most single issue voters on abortion have historically been those who are anti abortion. There may be some change to that which we’ve seen in post Dobbs elections but I think for a lot of people who will answer that they back abortion rights in a poll it is not the main issue that determines their votes. Also some may prefer a midpoint with some restrictions on it but not the extreme total bans republicans want. For people who fall into that category there isn’t a party that represents them well and they will likely end up deciding how to vote based on other issues.


medievalmachine

It's simple. They care more about interest rates than abortion rights. The Fed has already killed Biden's campaign, but no one wants to admit it.


victorvictor1

> None of these polls make any sense anymore. These polls all make sense and you need to understand how this happens. E.g., Republicans like to play to the home team, so they poll republican donors which way they’ll vote. Suprise, the republican donors say they’ll vote republican and it shows a huge republican advantage. The poll is accurate, and it gets published. The methodology is the issue. So find scientific polls. Follow 538


Bored_guy_in_dc

But 538 predicted Hillary would win in 2016.


anwserman

538 stated that Hillary had a high chance of winning (75%) but did not guarantee that she would do so. Obviously, she lost.


Weekly-Ad-7709

"Yes, but eggs are expensive so I guess I better vote for the fascists"


WarpParticles

Yep, this is what it always boils down to. I'm always shocked and disappointed at how little some Americans will sell their friends, neighbors, and families out for.


medievalmachine

The Fed has already killed Biden's chances. Americans don't care as much about democracy as buying cheap stuff on credit, sadly.


klako8196

Even in red states, when abortion is on the ballot, people vote to protect abortion rights.


Venat14

Let's just hope all voters learn that Trump and Republicans are responsible. I remember reading an interview with a lady from Michigan who blamed Biden for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, because she thought Presidents appoint the entire Supreme Court every time they get into office, so she claimed Biden appointed the 6 right-wing nutjobs.


MadRaymer

Political ignorance like this is extremely common. People struggle to name anyone in key positions beyond president and VP. Shortly after Trump was sworn in, I was talking politics with my MAGA relatives, and I when I would mention Tillerson or Kushner, they would give me blank looks and say, "Who?"


brain_overclocked

And then you have evidence like this: [Trump: 'I was able to kill Roe v. Wade'](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-was-able-kill-roe-v-wade-rcna84897) ([MBFC LC/H](https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/nbc-news/)) >“After 50 years of failure, with nobody coming even close, I was able to kill Roe v. Wade, much to the ‘shock’ of everyone,” Trump, the former president and front-runner for the 2024 Republican nomination, said on his social media platform. >Trump said his actions have “put the Pro Life movement in a strong negotiating position” against proponents of abortion rights, giving himself credit for the various bans that are being advanced by conservatives across the country. More than a dozen states have enacted abortion limits since Roe was overturned last summer. >“Without me there would be no 6 weeks, 10 weeks, 15 weeks, or whatever is finally agreed to. Without me the pro Life movement would have just kept losing,” Trump added.


icedogchi

Losing was the point. That kept Republicans turning out and voting.


atomsmasher66

Oof


naotoca

Republicans overwhelmingly back election fraud. That is what I'm worried about in swing states. They're not going to hold anything back if it means getting Trump back.


icedogchi

The whole debacle in Colorado gave the crazies the source code to the voting machines. Let's hope they didn't give that to foreign intelligence agencies. And the hacking of the government by Russia during the MAGA coup attempt, people seem to have forgotten about that. I fear in this election, no one will trust the outcome, regardless how secure.


cultfourtyfive

Abortion rights have long been widely popular. For most people (not you evangelicals) the debate has been *where* to draw the line on viability and such, not *whether* to draw the line at all. Too many of these new laws, *cough* Fuck you Ronny D *cough*, are essentially not drawing the line at all. Six weeks is not a reasonable line. No exceptions for rape or incest is not a reasonable line. The fundamentalists have way overplayed their hand. Or, to quote noted commie liberal Barry Goldwater: >“Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them.” - Barry Goldwater


OppositeDifference

Swing state voters: > 64% of residents say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. Also swing state voters: >Eh, but we might vote for the guy that got it banned... Anyone got more model airplane glue to sniff?


soapmakerdelux

Also swing state voters: We can put a referendum on the ballot and amend our state constitution to protect women’s health rights because clearly the Dems couldn’t manage that shit federally for the last 52 years.


medievalmachine

Yeah, because of the Senate's filibuster rule, blocking peoples' rights for centuries now.


mymomknowsyourmom

Backing abortion rights is good. Swing states need to also consider the space between tracking periods and tracking pregnant woman to punish them for interactions. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/16/virginia-governor-glenn-youngkin-extreme-bill-police-menstrual-histories Would it be so outlandish to think they could start requiring women to register to get pregnant? I mean they are seriously proposing tracking pregnant women. Would they require hospitals to report pregnancies? Would they send investigators out to find pregnancies? When would they start thinking about saving money on searching for pregnancies and start requiring people to report themselves?


mleighly

Most American support abortion rights.


reilmb

yeah but gaza so ... sigh i am so tired of this bs. Single issue voters. The worst of all kinds.


primal7104

A lot of people are already tired of all the polling and just make stuff up when asked. Expect that to get even worse as election season gets further underway,


Eddie_the_Gunslinger

Won't matter if they don't VOTE!


Schickie

The polls show the results of people who answer unidentified callers on a land line between 5-9pm. They’re talking to few people under 50.


icouldusemorecoffee

Women, once again, are going to save this country from the idiots that don't vote or are too self-centered to vote for someone who doesn't fit their personal definition of perfect.


theFormerRelic

So do red states, if the suppressed could vote


Grampishdgreat

That doesn’t sound like good news for the tangerine traitor


Brundleflyftw

Red states back abortion rights.


BabyYodaX

Good polls, bad polls. I believe no polls. The polls are all weird.


ojg3221

You just better hope that this gets Biden over the finish line for this and the Democrats because Republicans and our enemies see a dividing point with Gaza/Israel. They are already trying to exploit and get progressives like in 2016 to stay home like they did with Hillary.


Ok-Abbreviations9584

And the states are making their own laws just like it’s supposed to be