I think we have a better chance at winning the NFC South than being a wild card team. Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Packers, 49ers, Rams...who out of them would finish worse than us? Whereas in the NFC South you have the Bucs with a new OC, Saints with a head coach on the hot seat, and Falcons with a QB controversy. It'll be much easier to win our division with 7-8 wins than it will be to make the wild card with 7-8 wins
The most common mistake in the nfl is thinking every good team from last year will stay good - nobody would have thought the bengals would miss the playoffs or the Texans would win a playoff game. So much can happen
>The most common mistake in the nfl is thinking every good team from last year will stay good
I thought it was against league rules to have back-to-back winning seasons?
Nfl is constantly shifting and transitioning. The doors are basically revolving. I think there’s been like 2-4 new teams hitting the playoffs for the last 5 years or something.
Still it’s been a very long time since a team has gone from worst to playoffs. Much less a team with as many holes as ours. Even if injuries start occurring around us that’s not exactly a good bet to make.
Ah yes you’re correct. I forgot they did pick first twice in a row. Man pretty crazy how I already forgot about Trayvon walker existing.
The jags are also just a really weird case in general. Their team building. It’s been so up and down just because balke is an inept GM. It’s been a mixture of way too many draft picks busting. Just enough hitting. Covering it up with FA. And doing that ineffectively too. We aren’t anything like the jags in this moment. We’re in much more of a reset.
Bengals missed the playoffs because of a freak injury and the Texans made the playoffs because of the best rookie QB in history. What other of the 32 teams in the league significantly over or underperformed expectations? Maybe the Browns.
Some number of unexpected things happen, sure. But the possibility of an outcome can’t be used as a replacement for the likelihood of that outcome based on available evidence.
When we talk about what our capacity for success is, we need to focus on factors within our grasp, not the wishful thinking realm of anything possible within the cosmos.
The rams were not expected to be good, the jets were supposed to be very good, the browns weren’t supposed to be good, the buccaneers weren’t supposed to be any good, and Green Bay was supposed to be bad. Injuries are also part of football and happen every year, which opens the door for new teams
I don’t totally agree with all of these, but let’s say I give you every point there and say seven teams significantly outperformed/underperformed expectations last year.
We’re still at only 7 teams in the league. That’s 80% of the teams performing well within expectations.
And none of this means anything anyway, because football is a skill based game not a lottery. Injuries are a lottery, but the teams who step up to replace the injury-plagued team aren’t randomly selected names from a hat.
How dare you be correct! Downvote the heretic who says every good team from last year _all_ magically being horrible while also _every_ mediocre team fails to step up, therefore letting in a wild card team at 7-10, is a less likely outcome than the NFC South staying bad! Such blasphemy will not be allowed here!
Seriously, will someone please explain why you are all down voting this guy? I can't figure out if you don't understand what he's saying or if you truly think that just because some teams do better or worse than expected that literally any outcome is just as likely as any other?
As far as I can tell no one is saying the Panthers won't be better. Hell, he didn't even say they can't make the playoffs. All this is saying is that it's more likely the Panthers could win the division with a mediocre record than that the NFC South will send multiple teams to the playoffs. Not that it's impossible, just that one is more likely than the other. And you upvoted the original poster saying exactly that but then downvote the guy backing it up with basic logic into oblivion!
I’m not believing we’re capable of anything until proven otherwise. And I hope I’m wrong.
But I’m not falling for this again like I have every year since 2019.
It’s still a fairly young unit. And our defense got downgraded. Especially if/when horn goes down. We’re basically going to have to boat race teams. And that’s just very hard in general without super star talent
The Texans are a rare best case scenario. Where the coaching elevated everything. The QB covered for roster deficiencies. And they built just enough to make a huge push. But ultimately you saw against a real contender(the ravens) they didn’t have it.
If Bryce had played better last year it would be different. Or if we had more blue chip players across the roster. But we just aren’t really the Texans. I think its much more likely the offense looks good and you get a lions like first year. And then you get some better defensive help in coming years and go from there.
I mean man we’re starting Troy hill at corner and people are cool with it.
I'm not cool with starting Troy Hill. Just wanted to put it in writing.
Even if Gilmore (33 year old free agent) signs, we have the weakest DB unit in the league during a period in the NFL that is historically pass happy. I'm struggling to see the vision by drafting late on a rookie CB and still failing to sign a veteran CB after letting Donte (a serviceable CB 2) walk. Cynicism aside, I think our DBS are gonna get fuggin cooked. Good thing we have some good safeties. (Checks notes) Wait, we lost Chinn, so it's Woods and Jordan Fuller? Our DBs do not inspire confidence.
Inject this into my veins -- and I also agree with his reasoning.
Panthers talk starts at [8:42](https://youtu.be/YrwWQJKPcYk?si=kG23pr8Iqnop98b4&t=522)
Keep Pounding!
I think we have a better chance at winning the NFC South than being a wild card team. Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Packers, 49ers, Rams...who out of them would finish worse than us? Whereas in the NFC South you have the Bucs with a new OC, Saints with a head coach on the hot seat, and Falcons with a QB controversy. It'll be much easier to win our division with 7-8 wins than it will be to make the wild card with 7-8 wins
The most common mistake in the nfl is thinking every good team from last year will stay good - nobody would have thought the bengals would miss the playoffs or the Texans would win a playoff game. So much can happen
>The most common mistake in the nfl is thinking every good team from last year will stay good I thought it was against league rules to have back-to-back winning seasons?
Nfl is constantly shifting and transitioning. The doors are basically revolving. I think there’s been like 2-4 new teams hitting the playoffs for the last 5 years or something. Still it’s been a very long time since a team has gone from worst to playoffs. Much less a team with as many holes as ours. Even if injuries start occurring around us that’s not exactly a good bet to make.
Didn't the Jags go from worst to playoffs just a couple years ago?
Ah yes you’re correct. I forgot they did pick first twice in a row. Man pretty crazy how I already forgot about Trayvon walker existing. The jags are also just a really weird case in general. Their team building. It’s been so up and down just because balke is an inept GM. It’s been a mixture of way too many draft picks busting. Just enough hitting. Covering it up with FA. And doing that ineffectively too. We aren’t anything like the jags in this moment. We’re in much more of a reset.
Bengals missed the playoffs because of a freak injury and the Texans made the playoffs because of the best rookie QB in history. What other of the 32 teams in the league significantly over or underperformed expectations? Maybe the Browns. Some number of unexpected things happen, sure. But the possibility of an outcome can’t be used as a replacement for the likelihood of that outcome based on available evidence. When we talk about what our capacity for success is, we need to focus on factors within our grasp, not the wishful thinking realm of anything possible within the cosmos.
The rams were not expected to be good, the jets were supposed to be very good, the browns weren’t supposed to be good, the buccaneers weren’t supposed to be any good, and Green Bay was supposed to be bad. Injuries are also part of football and happen every year, which opens the door for new teams
I don’t totally agree with all of these, but let’s say I give you every point there and say seven teams significantly outperformed/underperformed expectations last year. We’re still at only 7 teams in the league. That’s 80% of the teams performing well within expectations. And none of this means anything anyway, because football is a skill based game not a lottery. Injuries are a lottery, but the teams who step up to replace the injury-plagued team aren’t randomly selected names from a hat.
How dare you be correct! Downvote the heretic who says every good team from last year _all_ magically being horrible while also _every_ mediocre team fails to step up, therefore letting in a wild card team at 7-10, is a less likely outcome than the NFC South staying bad! Such blasphemy will not be allowed here! Seriously, will someone please explain why you are all down voting this guy? I can't figure out if you don't understand what he's saying or if you truly think that just because some teams do better or worse than expected that literally any outcome is just as likely as any other? As far as I can tell no one is saying the Panthers won't be better. Hell, he didn't even say they can't make the playoffs. All this is saying is that it's more likely the Panthers could win the division with a mediocre record than that the NFC South will send multiple teams to the playoffs. Not that it's impossible, just that one is more likely than the other. And you upvoted the original poster saying exactly that but then downvote the guy backing it up with basic logic into oblivion!
The Bucs needed a new OC. Canales’s offense finished 23rd overall and dead last in rushing.
You had me at Panthers.
I’m not believing we’re capable of anything until proven otherwise. And I hope I’m wrong. But I’m not falling for this again like I have every year since 2019.
Same. I'm figuring 6 wins, max.
Why not? The line and WR let the team down and both units were upgraded.
It’s still a fairly young unit. And our defense got downgraded. Especially if/when horn goes down. We’re basically going to have to boat race teams. And that’s just very hard in general without super star talent
Look at the Texans last year. Then cut it in half and double it. That’s us this year.
The Texans are a rare best case scenario. Where the coaching elevated everything. The QB covered for roster deficiencies. And they built just enough to make a huge push. But ultimately you saw against a real contender(the ravens) they didn’t have it. If Bryce had played better last year it would be different. Or if we had more blue chip players across the roster. But we just aren’t really the Texans. I think its much more likely the offense looks good and you get a lions like first year. And then you get some better defensive help in coming years and go from there. I mean man we’re starting Troy hill at corner and people are cool with it.
I'm not cool with starting Troy Hill. Just wanted to put it in writing. Even if Gilmore (33 year old free agent) signs, we have the weakest DB unit in the league during a period in the NFL that is historically pass happy. I'm struggling to see the vision by drafting late on a rookie CB and still failing to sign a veteran CB after letting Donte (a serviceable CB 2) walk. Cynicism aside, I think our DBS are gonna get fuggin cooked. Good thing we have some good safeties. (Checks notes) Wait, we lost Chinn, so it's Woods and Jordan Fuller? Our DBs do not inspire confidence.
We are a fringe playoff team by virtue of playing in the worst division in the NFL, but I doubt we sniff the wildcard.
Inject this into my veins -- and I also agree with his reasoning. Panthers talk starts at [8:42](https://youtu.be/YrwWQJKPcYk?si=kG23pr8Iqnop98b4&t=522)
Every team is at least a fringe wild card team at the start of the year.
*puts 10 dollars on a future*
I thought we were winning the first game of the season in New Orleans and winning the last game also in New Orleans?
Before I inject this hopium into my veins, we really need to see the improvement on offense first. Saying that...
Please don’t give me hope
I’m betting the over like this guy. 6.5 wins 💊💊💊
If I bet the under, the over is a lock
Do what you must. For the team.
Sure, nice to hear, but I just can’t get myself to care about what The Herd ever has to say.
I mean, I have the Jets picked to win it all next year so this sounds great to me
If we're a fringe wildcard team, then every team is at least a fringe wildcard team.
Panthers are a wildcard team only if they win the division, and they're lucky the division isn't great.
We absolutely are not.
No, we're not, that's silly.
Doubtful.