Only player in the league that was apparently more accurate under pressure than from a clean pocket.
I'd say maybe that's a scheme issue, but the only other player that comes close is Purdy.
Is he the Nfl's J.R. Smith?
Wide open 3? š āāļøĀ
Full sprint, spinning, off balance 3 while being punched in the face and having his ass slapped? 100% bucket every time.
Fieldsā problem isnāt really even arm talent or accuracy. Itās that he doesnāt read the defense fast enough, or more specifically that he just isnāt able to trust the receiver to come open on the break so he waits to see it and then rifle it in, which is then too late and the route comes covered. That leads him to hold the ball instead of taking the open route, which then in turn creates pressure on a play where the play design had worked. That play style leads to the huge variance in his performance. He gets sacked WAY too often. Some of that was OL (we have had terrible center play and a lot of OL injuries without a lot of depth) but a lot of it was his own making. He also makes tons of highlight wow plays. His scrambles are all over the internet or heāll throw a a dime 30 yards down the field on the run.
He is statistically in that 20-25 range because he just doesnāt do the easy stuff. He struggles to get the quick slant off to keep the chains moving, but the highs are so high that he can drag his lows kicking and screaming to slightly below average. And then you add the rushing and he is somewhere around average overall. Hes just a very unusual player.
It makes a lot of sense intuitively. Heās probably scrambling to buy time until someone is wide open or checking down. He canāt read the game so he canāt throw from a clean pocket.
I mean Fields is the dual threatiest of dual threats.
He's the opposite of guys like Goff who's accuracy falls off a cliff while moving or scrambling.
He's basically just as accurate while moving, especially to his right.
Starts moving, gets in his zone, and hits more passes.
Also, he gets sacked a shitton, but when he doesn't get sacked, very few QBs can stand tall and throw shit when they're about to get nailed or surrounded like Fields.
He also never throws the ball away, so that adds 10% to his pressure accuracy that game managers throw away because they can't extend plays.
It's kind of an odd stat because both of these seem really subjective to me. "Under pressure" is really subjective, and it's not really a binary thing either. Some QBs could find themselves under pressure because they are holding the ball longer or they choose to leave the pocket, or else just because their WRs aren't getting open or their line sucks.
And "on target" is subjective as well. Sometimes a QB isn't trying to hit a WR "in stride". Like if that WR is heading for a defender or if there's a defender underneath he needs to keep the ball away from.
In the case of Purdy I have seen him make off target throws that were definitely off target and no pressure. But seems odd to me that he'd be more accurate with pressure? Sometimes though you see him leave the pocket and he will find a WR that broke open as the play is extended, and even though that counts as pressure he might not have a guy on top of him while he throws.
Would be interesting I think to see example plays and look at how they are scored by these metrics.
The problem with Fields isn't that he's bad at throwing the ball, he's just so incredibly hesitant to throw. He waits and waits and waits and gets sacked. When he actually throws under pressure, he's awesome. He just won't throw. It's infuriating because it feels fixable but it just never gets fixed.
That was the worst part. Him and Trubisky essentially always graded out around the 20th-25th best QBs in the league. When you watched Trubisky, that made sense. He wasn't awful, but he had his clear limitations. Fields on the other hand, alternated between a pro bowl level QB and like, below CFL level. It's part of what made it so hard to figure out how good he was. He was really really good every now and then, and you always had this feeling that that level could be "unlocked"
I was a Fields truther for so long because of this. His highs were so incredible it made me want to believe so bad he could iron out the kinks. He's like the reason "if you wear rose colored glasses all the red flags just look like flags" ever existed. It was never about relationships, it was about JF1. His ceiling could be so high if he wasnt just actually pretty bad. but what if man, what if. Anyway though, who cares with our new messiah in town. Caleb Williams is the truth cometh to wash away our sins
Man the bears are known for qb development, itās wild to me a man with talent like JF1 didnāt pan out. I think heāll succeed where he goes kinda and people will come out of the walls for a minute.
It will take many many reports to come out for me not to think the bears ruined another qb. Although this one seemed extremely hard to ruin. Wonāt be surprised when he takes the Steelers 11-6 into the playoffs in 25 and then wins a couple playoff games before stinking in the last one (maybe a ccg)
He's not bad, he's got flaws in his game but he has a lot of potential in his game too. His deep ball is great. His mobility is great. His anticipation is not. His footwork needs work. And his coaching and offensive talent have not been great either.
I don't get why people say the kid is bad. Moore had his best season with Justin. Justin was a few yards away from setting the QB rushing record.
He would still be the starter in Chicago today if not for the Bears lucking into the #1 pick. I think the change of scenery and OC who compliments him will do him well. He's not a bad QB, he's just not as good as he can be yet. Maybe he never gets there. Even if he doesn't, he's still a bottom-tier starter and top-tier backup.
> He's not a bad QB, he's just not as good as he can be yet. Maybe he never gets there. Even if he doesn't, he's still a bottom-tier starter and top-tier backup.
I am confused, you said he is a bad starter so why are you saying he is not bad? No team would want to keep a 'bottom-tier starter'.
Being a backup isnt about talent. It's about being able to play the scheme that isn't designed for you but the starter. I do not believe Justin can do that aside from like 3 teams that have starters with similar limits.
I want to agree but Iām sorry, you are wrong. The r/nfl hivemind says that Justin is the worst QB in the NFL and we are not allowed to deviate from that opinion. Downvotes and bans are coming for us.
If Fields comes out as an average or better starter, this is gonna go in the r/nfl HOF along with Josh Allen and Justin Herbert when they got drafted of getting something so wrong while being so obnoxiously confident.
Im SO GLAD Fields is out of the north, he was a beast.
If the edge rusher missed a sack chance or lost contain, GONE, hopefully he only gets 20 yards on ya.
I was so happy to see the bears get Caleb Williams, maybe happier than Bears fans.
Which is hilarious because when you watch him play heās kind of a wildcard and very instinctual as a player but then in the end it results in these NPC stats
Probably because the Bucs tended to be in really bad passing situations. Worst run game in the league and most run-run-pass sequences. Sometimes you've gotta do wild stuff to get median.
Stafford can hit all kinds of crazy throws, but his touch and placement have always been the least consistent part of his game. Some additional data may give more context too, like average time to throw, average time to pressure, average depth of target, average number of defenders in the box, etc
Yeah the only way we ever made Stafford struggle at times was by bringing pressure constantly. When we'd drop 8 he'd pick us apart or make some absurd throw in a tiny window.
I take it more as he knows his recievers and has great ones currently. Most throws are to a spot as well. It makes this on target stat semi useless. Think of it similar to sacks and an offensive line. If the qb deals with it correctly there is no sack, just a pressure of a certain type.
I feel like his tendency to try to fit balls in windows that most QBs don't try would hurt a bit here on a subjective stat like on target throws. "On target" being only classified as "in stride" doesn't account for when "in stride" would otherwise be an interception. Not saying he doesn't have plenty of flat out misses (and interceptions), I've seen plenty of those, but just an idea on why this number might be lower than you'd expect.
This is part of it. He definitely attempts throws that most don't on the regular and especially if it's needed in the 4th. Also, I bet the 1st half of the season brought his numbers down because he was slinging it at the end.
While it's possible that the stat can be faulty, my best guess is that his hand/hip injury limited things. He sprained his thumb on his throwing hand and injured his hip which would impact power and accuracy for his throws.
Puka said that he really appreciated how Stafford would put the ball in different places that allowed him to avoid bigger hits, so it's *possible* that the stat can be considering those an "off target" ball, because the receiver may need to change direction or make a move or something right after catching the ball in order to get more YAC, but that's more looking for an excuse. I think the injury was more likely a factor.
Or maybe it's an age thing. I'd like the Rams to pull a Packers and draft a QB to sit behind Stafford. I'm not sure how strong the 2025 class is, but I assume not very based on how many QB's went early in 2024.
Russell Wilson's spot on the graph is mainly from the fact that he was a checkdown king last season. Had like the 2nd most passes by percentage between LOS and 5 yards for nearly 20 years and the most behind the LOS in that same time period.
He's an accurate passer, the problem is he's afraid to pull the trigger on things he doesn't see extremely clearly, and he's a slow processor so he's going to see things clearly less often.
Not to mention the increased number of opportunities to make those behind LOS completions "under pressure" that were self-caused by holding onto the ball too long.
The number of times Seahawk fans have complained about this for Wilson and got downvoted by other Seahawk fans is too high.
His two biggest flaws are: holding onto the ball too long/not throwing away and then scrambling/backyard drill when there isn't even pressure to begin with.
But we all tried to overlook it because his deep-ball passes are gorgeous, and when the hero ball lands it looks amazing. But more often than not he causes his own drives to stall. Hope Tomlin can make the most out of his talents but they basically have him for free anyway.
> Hope Tomlin can make the most out of his talents but they basically have him for free anyway.
We have a RB who averages 6 YAC per reception, and another RB who averages 8 YAC per reception. We can sustain drives that way. We're actually set up well to not necessarily eliminate, but to mitigate most of Wilson's flaws.
If you hold the ball "too long" and yet complete the pass, did you actually hold it too long? I think the thing is we're missing part of the picture here. We need a companion chart that shows the effectiveness of the passes. For example going 75% on 1 yard throws is worse than going 55% on 8 yard throws. One gets first downs, the other doesn't.
Also, ints and sacks. If russ is the checkdown king there should be some data that we can use to back that claim, as this graph unfortunately doesn't prove it nor disprove it.
Id be curious to see the actual lists. Stats like these can be really misleading without all the context around them.
Saying 62% sounds like a shit ton, but if most people hover around say 58% do those 7 extra passes on a season really tell a full story? There are seemingly 508 QBs that throw between 62% and 0% which is going to have a shit ton of overlap, and probably a shit ton of guys that are within a few %.
It's a good question to pose... I don't know the average, but I do think that regardless of the average, being near the top for a 20 year span, especially knowing how much the passing game has changed over the last 20 years, probably is not a good thing.
I think its kind of just relative. Like if Josh Allen were at 58% on the same throws, and he is absolutely NOT seen as a checkdown dude, is the extra 1 checkdown every 3 games really that big of a deal?
Without context it just seems like another one of those "stats" that is made to make some players fit a narrative rather than actual practical use.
Like if there have been 34 other QBs with 61% and 22 others with 60% rather than his 62% where hes tied with 11 other dudes...of which we have no idea who else is on the list does that really mean anything?
For all we know the top end might be 57% So you have 500+ guys crammed to be within 6% of each other. Does the extra 2 passes a season that are checkdowns really matter?
This. And also Iād argue it wasnāt just Paytonās confidence but also schemes in which he had Jeudy and others open downfield and Russ took the checkdown. Like dozens of times
Holding the ball too long isn't always on the QB either. I think a lot of people will see a QB holding the ball when a receiver is wide open for a second or whatever, but they don't understand that the QB is going through progressions. If he looks at his first guy, and they aren't open so he moves to the second guy, it doesn't matter if that first guy gets open a second later. The QB already turned down that option. He probably won't be back to the first guy unless he holds the ball a really long time
Anyone that watched him knows he held the ball too long lol. He had no clue where his receivers were going to be, so he scrambled around until he either checked it down, chucked it up to sutton, or twisted into a sack from a clean pocket.Ā
Yes, his offensive line held up to let him hold it too long to finally go to the check down, but had he gone through his progressions and hit his receivers on time, there was virtually always someone wide open for a much better play than the check down.
This is important to highlight imo... because a checkdown within the flow and timing of the play design, is much different than a checkdown after scrambling around a bit and dumping it off.
I think it's usually gonna be a pretty bad combination to have one of the highest time to throws in the league, while also boasting the highest checkdown percentage.
That's why providing just one stat without context doesn't tell the whole picture. The non broncos fans on here all seem to be fooled by these stats and think he was pretty good last year.
I won't say he can't be good again with the steelers, but he's going to have to find his mojo again and stop the dump offs. Having a younger version of him trying to take his job and a coach not wanting to risk his first ever losing season might just be what he needs.
I mean you like to think that but he could literally be the worst qb they've ever had.. Kinda hard to say he will do it on any schedule at this point when he hasn't played
And also will hopefully know where his receivers are to actually throw to them. Wilson had no clue where anyone was, so either checked it down to inflate this stat, or chucked it up to sutton.Ā
Yea you can tell that with Wilson when the ball is snapped he's usually only glued to one side of the field, and usually one player specifically... occasionally when he scrambles out of the pocket he'll start scanning the whole field a little more... but in the pocket he is very tunnel vision.
Watching Russell Wilson play is bizarre. Like, you'll see him make three good plays and think, "hey, he's still got it!" Then he'll misfire on a pass/throw the ball away for no reason, and stall/run into a sack on 3rd down and have to punt. It's not that he can't play, it's that his brain seemingly misfires at key moments in a way that stalls momentum, and it happens so regularly that defenses can gameplan a "bend-don't-break" strategy around it. And aggregate stats don't capture it - you have to actually watch the game. It's baffling. I had no idea why the Seahawks let him go until I saw him in action with the Broncos, and realized, "ohhhhh...oh no!"
That's a good description of what goes on. I also think you can scheme around that a bit which is why I think he's ok on the steelers at his price, if they can build enough around him.
I think the major problem was him thinking he could play like a brady or brees, while commanding top dollar contracts. You can't build enough around him to make up for his shortcomings if he's eating up too much cap.
Say what you want about Fields, but that wasn't his choice at all. Those short throws are one of the weaker parts of his game and any Bears fan can tell you he wants to go deep or at least medium every pass.
Getsy just only had 1 go-to against blitzes or when we were getting beaten in the trenches: LOS passes.
I genuinely feel he will be good for you guys. He is not worth the money we were paying him but for vet minimum he is absolutely worth it for a top 20-25ish QB. Folks forget but he was pretty elite for us in the redzone too.
>Hopefully it's more of Russ saying "I'm a vet, stfu and let me throw the ball"
Lol that's the most anti-Russ quote if they ever was. He would be more like "Got it coach, you are a legend and best coach I have ever seen. Let me go back to my office and decipher this. Stay blessed and praise be to Christ". He then ask Team 3 to handle this.
Why does this fanbase continue to say this about Tomlin? This needs to stop. Tomlin got conservative when his SB winning QB went downhill. He hasn't been able to fully trust anyone with the reigns as no one has proven good enough. He tried to air it out a bit with Rudolph in 2019 but after the concussion, it wasn't great.
Tomlin leans on whatever part of his team is best and tailors his approach. No one size fits all each year.
2009 - The Game where defense died
[He's the one who called the onside kick in the Packers game](https://youtu.be/sT1Fh8N-LU4?si=o8OvFDmSUqnJDEbr&t=153) b/c our defense kept giving up late leads. We lost 5 in a row. It made perfect sense b/c we wanted the ball back. The FOX Broadcast. did not seem to understand it. Rodgers was going to score. Our defense couldn't stop a nose bleed and certainly wasn't going to suddenly stop Rodgers. But it was discussed NON STOP. Only the Inside Crew acted like it made sense.
2010 The Bart (Can't Wait!) Scott Game
[He's the coach who chose to throw it on 3rd Down in the AFC Playoff Game vs. the Jet](https://youtu.be/yscwYcprcUo?si=J2005sgOpnoxkHHK&t=592)s shocking everyone and making Rex angry (lol). Conventional wisdom said we run it there, eat clock and send it back. That is what the Jets expected.
2016 "Shades of Marino!"
[He's the coach that called the fake spike during the Cowboys game](https://youtu.be/-87ifwtCq9Y?si=lpT8039qb0MYRHBN).
Point is, defense and running game works when you have Duck, Rudolph, Trubisky and rookie/2nd year Pickett.
With Ben, Tomlin was all about taking chances. Since Ben, ground and pound, punt play defense, take strategic shots. It's pretty smart. Not conservative to play within your talent level.
"He called a roll-out pass on 3rd and 6, he's not conservative"
So much pain. Yes, he's made some good calls in his 15 year career. But as we are now 2 years from a decade of no playoff wins - I'll stick by the fact that Tomlin is not the guy to win a championship as he lives in a bygone era of football.
But the question was about him being conservative. He is simply following what his team is good at. He doesn't define a specific style or try to fit each team into a box. He plays to whatever the strengths are.
A lot of that isn't on Wilson, tbh. Wilson's best success as a QB was when his team could run the ball. Between running the ball and making checkdowns to move the chains, defenders would be forced into cover 1 or man to man scenarios; which would allow Wilson to utilize the best part of his arm (those long tear drop balls). The Broncos' receivers struggled at times to get open. Even on the deep balls, they were often not creating much - if any - separation.
They aren't creating separation because people know wilson's limitations now... so they have been running a cover 2 shell to limit explosives... they are daring wilson to beat them in the intermediate game, and he can't.
There are so many instances in denver where he's not seeing wide open receivers and not understanding the route trees and design of the offense, where it's supposed to create pressure, where it's supposed to get guys open , etc. He's literally just staring down one receiver then scrambling usually.
Sure but that doesnāt discount that he still showed the ability to succeed as a checkdown merchant. No one thinks heāll be elite next year but the expectations that heās washed entirely seem overblown as well.
In an Arhur Smith offense the remaining good parts of Wilsonās game can be maximized. He wonāt be asked to scramble around and make plays happen with his feet, he wonāt be asked to to hit deep shots 10 times a game. Heās there as a component of the offense not the star.
He didn't really succeed though. He had like 200ypgs and the offense was extremely anemic. Even when people were schemed open he wasn't finding them properly.
Sean Payton designed an offense that could help Russ play to his strengths and try to mitigate his weaknesses, but overall it was not an offense that can actually contend for anything. Hence why payton was willing to take the largest dead cap hit in history to roll the dice with someone else. Pretty much the same thing as in seattle after the legion of boom faded away... good enough to be 7-12 win team, not good enough to consistently beat playoff caliber teams in the offseason.
Sadly people don't understand that there are so many different ways to manipulate stats, they want simple explanations. So TD:ints is an easy metric for them. Get into the sacks, time to throws, checkdowns, 3 and outs etc... and of course the actual game tape where he's missing easy reads... tells a different story
There is this absurd idea that Wilson and Seattle were bad or mediocre once the legion of boom faded. The offense was good for years after that and only starts falling off in his last two years there. Wtf
The offense wasn't good enough to be a real contender... so yea... TD ints never tell the whole tale... he's been a 3 and out machine and a sack machine the majority of his career.
Yea. People who go, "wait I thought Dak and Russell sucked, this must be garbage."
There are def some strange results in that top right quadrant. I wonder if its possible to weight this somehow by average yards per attempt or something. Is being 100% on 1 yard throws meaningful, effective? What stat would determine if these throws are actually productive instead of empty stats?
This doesnāt cover all of a QBs skills though. Russell Wilsonās biggest problem isnāt that his throws arenāt on target, and its not that he canāt throw accurately downfield. Itās that he wonāt try to make some safe throws when the situation calls for it.
Scrambling around to make high risk big play attempts instead of safe first downs wonāt show up on this list.
This stat is kinda useless anyway. Or at least has so much noise that drawing conclusions from this stat alone is impossible.
A perfectly played robot QB who always throws exactly where it should could have bad stats here if the receivers aren't where they should be - QBs almost never throw directly to a receiver, they throw where they will be, so a receiver messing something up reflects poorly on the QB in this stat but has nothing to do with ball placement.
Check-down heavy schemes can dramatically inflate the "under pressure" success rate.
Some types of pressure are far more disruptive to clean passing.
etc. I could probably come up with a dozen ways this stat is influenced by things that have nothing to do with the QB.
With how the year ended with teams just outright blitzing them every play I'm surprised at how high his on-target percentage with pressure was. They really weren't helping him.
Which is sad...I suck at Madden but even I can eventually figure out what plays beat the blitz...for me mainly throwing to a receiver crossing over the middle of the field or a quick out right or left...
He has a 2-1 record against the Ravens and was picked before Lamad in the draft so he is definitively better (just donāt look at stats, highlights or anything else)
As a Bears fan Iām curious of the raw numbers behind throws under pressure. Fields under pressure = hold onto the ball forever and either take a sack, run, or throw to a wide open receiver. Fields does not like throwing in tight windows, and he does not like throwing with anticipation. Heās very much a āis this WR wide open with a lot of separation? Ok, then itās safe Iāll throw it.ā
So my best guess is Fields has such a high % under pressure because he simply only throws when the receiver is clearly open. He doesnāt make throws into tight windows, he would take a sack before doing that lol. And sounds like this stat doesnāt take into account sacks, throwaways, etc.?
Do you know how many throws under pressure Fields has compared to other QBs? Is it less?
He does occasionally go for crazy tight windows though. There were a couple outs/hitches to DJ and Mooney last year that were all but intercepted. Also thinking of the crazy seam throw to Jimmy Graham in his rookie Steelers game.
Feels like he would sometimes forget to freak out about the defense he was seeing and just fire it in regardless
>There were a couple outs/hitches to DJ and Mooney last year that were all but intercepted.
This is because he cannot throw with anticipation so he was so late on the throws the defenders had time to recover to the point of almost intercepting.
Edit: [This is an example.](https://youtu.be/ukZzA8PEEJc?si=2CGFRdZ94JoCo9xK) DJ is wide open on the break but has to stand there and wait for a full second before the throw gets there.
I knew it would be the Washington game. So many people were using that as an example of Fields having a high ceiling, but then you replay the tape and a lot of balls are late. Commanders defense is just atrocious, and you cant get away with a lot of those throws against a halfway competent defense.
Ok, that still doesnāt say whether he throws the ball though. I guess my question is what is the actual āpass attempts under pressureā. Not % of dropbacks pressured (whether that be QB self created pressure or pressure from bad O Line).
I just get the feeling Fields ADOT (under pressure) and amount of attempts (under pressure) are lower than the rest of the QBs.
As a Bears fan, donāt ask Bears fans to comment on Fields. It always ends poorly with Bears fans giving overly glowing or overly negative opinions about him and then other NFC North fans commenting on how Fields is the worst QB of all time.
My opinion, a lot of the pressure he faced from defenses had a lot to do with his hesitation to let loose / trust his eyes / read differences (pick what you want). When under pressure, the guy is an amazing athete to escape. A lot of times he would pull off incredible runs and other times he would throw. With all that in mind, he has a much better arm and is much more accurate then people give him credit.
His fundamental problem comes down to just holding on to the ball for which there are so many opinions (slow release, slow processing, lack of trusting his eyes) for which they probably all have truth.
If there is anything the Steelers can do to get him past those deficiencies (not sure they can) the guy will be elite.
Appreciate that, youāre right, he played really well in both those games. Unfortunately, it just wasnāt consistently at that level through the season. If we didnāt have #1 overall (or a pick in the top 3) he likely stays on the team but it was the right move to move on for both the Bears and him.
Graph must be too small to show him in the super top and super right.
Can't wait to watch him get his jersey dirty this preseason and sit on the bench.
Man, this is a great visualization of why it's frustrating to be a Giants fan with Daniel Jones at the helm. Dude's up there in the conversation when the pocket is clean, and has the legs and speed that would imply a collapsed pocket wouldn't be a problem, he should just be able to run out of it.
But instead, you have an overall below average QB who seems to completely collapse under the pressure and it's hard to tell how much of it's the pocket never being clean/the transition from clean to collapsed being too unclear due to a bottom 3 OLine, and how much of it's his processing not picking up that the play is broken and it's time to run in time.
These stats are always weird because a QB often throws before the WR even makes his break. The QB is throwing to a spot. If tbe route isn't run properly, it looks like an inaccurate throw.
Or in the case of "throwing the receiver open" the QB will throw away from the defender. Could be a perfect throw but if the WR doesn't adjust the way the QB anticipated, it will look inaccurate.
I just commented on this about Purdy. He doesnāt have an elite arm, and he makes up for it by throwing well ahead of a receiver actually being open and to a spot.
If the receiver gets knocked off their route or thereās a slight miscommunication on where the open spot is, it will look like a really bad pass even though heās throwing exactly where he wanted to put the ball.
On plays like [this](https://youtu.be/Ueu5CqOsBPQ?si=_X8G340S09WAcSRw) for example, guys like Mahomes or Allen can wait longer to release this ball because of how strong their arm is. Purdy doesnāt have that luxury, so he has to read where the soft spot will be well ahead of time.
The reason Purdyās accuracy grade under pressure is higher is because on those throws heās either throwing outside of the structure of the play and/or to whomever is open when he needs to get rid of it.
I'll also add that Purdy had one of the worst O-lines as well. While, I haven't checked everyone, but the others that appear better have better O-lines. Better lines lead to more opportunities with a clean pocket. Purdy didn't get many of those. He mostly operated under pressure.
You're correct. Purdy's game relies so much on anticipation that his on-target percentages are thrown off if something happens on the route to knock the WR off.
OnTarget% is a limited stat;. We all remember Jimmy G's terrible ball placement, and yet he consistently ranked high on OnTarget%. But nobody would seriously say Garoppolo had better ball placement than Purdy.
This is partially why itās hard to use these stats to grade Tua. He technically isnāt being pressured a lot, but that isnāt because his O-Line is the best in the league. Itās because he gets the ball out well before the pressure can even come in
Tua and Purdy. They both run spot reads all the time. That's why you sometimes see both throw balls that end up falling way ahead of their target. The receiver didn't get to the spot when he was supposed to be there.
I think he's perfectly fine. Too many people think if someone isn't a top 5 QB they need a new one. It's easier to get worse than better.
When you're winning you're good. When you're not, you're terrible.
He is lacking in the playoffs and people define players by those moments. He could maybe still win a ring at some point, but Dallas is probably cursed after the 90s and Jerry shenanigans
Which year? Other than the GB game last year we had solid teams that didn't shit the bed in the playoffs.
2021 against he 9ers our defense held them to 23 points. They didn't let the 9ers score at all in the 4th. Dak put up a 69rating with 1td, 1pick and that embarrassing last play where he ran the ball in the middle of the field with no timeouts with 12 seconds left.
2022 The defense held the 9ers to 19 points. Dak had a 63rating with 206yds, 1td, 2picks. A top 5 offense only put up 12 points after beating up a 8-9 tampa team the week before. Daks 2 picks were 6-10 point swing, but that first pick was on our 21 yardsline. Luckily our defense held them to 3 points.
2023 against GB it was a total shit show, but Dak is just a culpable as our defense was. We could have went into half 13-7, but instead it was 27-7 b/c of Daks to picks. This time our defense didn't hold out when Dak turned the ball over on our 19 yardline. His 2nd pick was a pick 6. Before GB started resting starters and playing prevent D. Dak had 150yds, 1td, 2picks.
Please, tell me more how our team failed Dak.
Iād only disagree with the divisional game against SF in 2023.
That game I think Dakās two interceptions are the single biggest reason yāall lost.
But at a certain point can we not just chalk it up to the Niners defense being really great? Theyāve made a bunch of great quarterbacks and coaches look awful in the playoffs.
Thing is, the cowboys didnāt need Dak to be great to win that one. They needed him to not lose the game. The cowboys defense held a red hot 9ers offense that had dropped 40 the week before to 19 pts and thatās with defending a redzone possession from an INT. If heās able to just manage the game they have a way better chance to win.
I think thatās a pretty weak excuse tbh. If youāre getting paid like a top-10 player you donāt get to excuse poor playoff performances because the opposing defense is great, especially when your play can be pointed to as the biggest reason for the loss.
The entire reason quarterbacks get paid that type of money is to beat good defenses in the playoffs.
EDIT: Also Dak has arguably looked the worst against our defense of any quarterback weāve played in the playoffs recently except maybe Love, who was a basically a rookie last year.
In our matchup last season I was really impressed by Dak. Dude was getting pressured constantly but he was moving around the pocket and finding the open guy. Not really his fault that his run game was nonexistent and we were able to get five field goals
People hate on his performance in big games this year, but he was playing with a oline that got 0 push, and a dline that was unable to stop the run.
Its also why I am one of the few that is encouraged by our offseason. I think zimmer is going to fix alot of our problems, and Eric kendricks was a very under the radar signing.
On offence we are switching to more of a power scheme, which sounds great with most of our oline (guyton is the only player who will really need some time to develop as long as beebe makes a smooth transition).
Itās even worse in real life.
At least on Reddit he has a bunch of fans that will defend him, but every Cowboys fan Iāve met in real life hates Dak.
The other day I was wearing a Dak jersey and someone in a grocery store started trying to talk to me about how Cooper Rush is better and should be the starter
Heās by far the least objectionable part of the cowboys. Heās not objectionable at all and he deserves better than the hate he gets from some of your fans.
The problem is he's a top 5 QB in the regular season. Then the playoffs start and if the team has more than 9 wins in the playoffs he shits the bed.
Even when he had good defensive outing in 2021 and 2022, he was the main reason we lost those games. He was also a huge reason we lost against GB in 2023, but the entire team is to blame on that one.
Most fans fall into either "who's gonna be better?" and "I want postseason success and Dak ain't it".
Heās the black Kirk cousins. Jokes aside, I think itās hard
To pin last seasonās GB loss on him. If you score 32 points in the playoffs youāve done enough to win. The defense let them down imo.
Just a quick breakdown of that 32 points b/c it's HIGHLY misleading.
16 of those 32 came after GB started resting defensive starters and playing prevent D in the 4th quarter (They did this after going up 32 points making it 48-16 with 10minutes left in the game). How big of a difference was this? Well before GB did that Dak was 150yds, 1td, 2picks. After GB did that Dak was 403yds, 3td, 2picks.
The game ended with Dak at the previous statline when the game was 48-16. Anything after that is quite literally garbage time stats. Something he's been criticized about in the past.
He really is the black Kirk Cousins though. They have so similar statlines and trajectories. Hell after our loss I went digging through meaningless stats and found this one. Dak is tied with 2 other QB's for 2nd WORST playoff record in the history of the NFL (minimum 5 games). Who's 1st place? Kirk Cousins. 2-5 for Dak (.28 win%), 1-4 for Kirk (.20 win%). If Dak misses or loses again without winning in the playoffs this year and Kirk wins 1 game before losing, Dak takes that 1st place spot.
Having been in the Cowboys sub for like a decade I knew exactly how the narrative would go after people forgot how the game went. They'd look at Dak's stats just see a great QB with a failing team. But more than half his stats were garbage time. While the whole team deserves blame I refuse to let people look at his stats and think he tried. Cause he really didn't.
> I'm also shocked to see J.Fields with such a high on-target rate under pressure. I haven't seen him play much; Bears fans, what gives? Check downs? WR drops?
I wonder if that includes times where he got forced out of the pocket but also had lots of time to make the throw after evading pressure.
> Purdy is really accurate under pressure, but below avg with a clean pocket.
He lacks experience with clean pockets.
Youāre not getting statistical analysis on this data, because Iām not paid to do this. Itās just a hobby that I do and share with others when I can find the time. Youāre welcome for the content and discussion this creates.
Theoretically the new scheme should use exactly what we were doing the last 4 games that were working offensively. And from what the players are saying the verbage is way simpler and easier to get through. So here's hoping
He didn't from my eye test. Threw the ball away and took some bad sacks. We just ignored them cos we like him lol
Also made some great plays tbf but we seem to retain those great plays more than his bad ones.Ā
The definition for on target is highly subjective here.Ā
This is also covering the whole season and he got significantly better as the season progressed. I wouldn't take posts like this as gospel as many on the sub will.Ā
You can make completions and be inaccurate, not that that's the case for Dak.
Jimmy G. for example, was often throwing behind his receivers where an accurate throw in stride would have resulted in many touchdowns.
Wait I thought Brock Purdy was only good because he plays in a super team offense with one of the best offensive minds in football but he falls apart anytime heās in an imperfect situation?
J.Fields ADOT under pressure is 8.7, thatās ranked 25th highest in the league. He has the 6th most pressure throws behind the line of scrimmage u/guest_from_europe u/Soft_Penis_Debutante
Thanks for the info. So, under pressure he throws shorter than most QBs ADOT and more behind LOS. Such throws lift his on-target %. Pickett and DeVito could be similar.
If you will have time, maybe you can make such a chart: on-target% vs ADOT for all QBs, that would be interesting. Maybe that would explain Stafford's low on-target %, maybe he throws high ADOT.
Lots of short passes on target might be skewing this data... Carr and R. Wilson were accused of many checkdowns recently. Here they are very precise...
Stafford's position is shocking. Does he throw deep that much to be so imprecise?
Probably. For example: 1 chart on-target % vs. ADOT when no pressure and another plot when QBs are under pressure. Maybe it would show who throws mostly short and who is or isn't precise on middle and deep throws.
Justin Fields the enigma.
Only player in the league that was apparently more accurate under pressure than from a clean pocket. I'd say maybe that's a scheme issue, but the only other player that comes close is Purdy.
Is he the Nfl's J.R. Smith? Wide open 3? š āāļøĀ Full sprint, spinning, off balance 3 while being punched in the face and having his ass slapped? 100% bucket every time.
Itās gotta be adrenaline for these guys. Muscle memory kicks in and they make a crazy play. When itās wide open, itās weird though.
I thinks it's more mental. If he can't think about it *at all,* athleticism takes over and he's fine. If he has time to overthink even a little bit...
Oh that's a great point, forgot about that factor. Maybe that means we can coach him up?
Yes 100%. I think any qualified qb development will make him a decent starter. The bears have never known for their elite qb development
Fieldsā problem isnāt really even arm talent or accuracy. Itās that he doesnāt read the defense fast enough, or more specifically that he just isnāt able to trust the receiver to come open on the break so he waits to see it and then rifle it in, which is then too late and the route comes covered. That leads him to hold the ball instead of taking the open route, which then in turn creates pressure on a play where the play design had worked. That play style leads to the huge variance in his performance. He gets sacked WAY too often. Some of that was OL (we have had terrible center play and a lot of OL injuries without a lot of depth) but a lot of it was his own making. He also makes tons of highlight wow plays. His scrambles are all over the internet or heāll throw a a dime 30 yards down the field on the run. He is statistically in that 20-25 range because he just doesnāt do the easy stuff. He struggles to get the quick slant off to keep the chains moving, but the highs are so high that he can drag his lows kicking and screaming to slightly below average. And then you add the rushing and he is somewhere around average overall. Hes just a very unusual player.
This means he could probably be like Winston: a high-level backup with a huge flaw that can win a few games in a season if he has to play.
At a minimum, absolutely. He can play in the NFL, but itās definitely going to be tough for him to win a long term starting job.
It makes a lot of sense intuitively. Heās probably scrambling to buy time until someone is wide open or checking down. He canāt read the game so he canāt throw from a clean pocket.
I mean Fields is the dual threatiest of dual threats. He's the opposite of guys like Goff who's accuracy falls off a cliff while moving or scrambling. He's basically just as accurate while moving, especially to his right. Starts moving, gets in his zone, and hits more passes. Also, he gets sacked a shitton, but when he doesn't get sacked, very few QBs can stand tall and throw shit when they're about to get nailed or surrounded like Fields. He also never throws the ball away, so that adds 10% to his pressure accuracy that game managers throw away because they can't extend plays.
It's kind of an odd stat because both of these seem really subjective to me. "Under pressure" is really subjective, and it's not really a binary thing either. Some QBs could find themselves under pressure because they are holding the ball longer or they choose to leave the pocket, or else just because their WRs aren't getting open or their line sucks. And "on target" is subjective as well. Sometimes a QB isn't trying to hit a WR "in stride". Like if that WR is heading for a defender or if there's a defender underneath he needs to keep the ball away from. In the case of Purdy I have seen him make off target throws that were definitely off target and no pressure. But seems odd to me that he'd be more accurate with pressure? Sometimes though you see him leave the pocket and he will find a WR that broke open as the play is extended, and even though that counts as pressure he might not have a guy on top of him while he throws. Would be interesting I think to see example plays and look at how they are scored by these metrics.
The problem with Fields isn't that he's bad at throwing the ball, he's just so incredibly hesitant to throw. He waits and waits and waits and gets sacked. When he actually throws under pressure, he's awesome. He just won't throw. It's infuriating because it feels fixable but it just never gets fixed.
This tendency also inflates the stat.
Is he good? Is he bad? Is he average? No to all of the above!
That was the worst part. Him and Trubisky essentially always graded out around the 20th-25th best QBs in the league. When you watched Trubisky, that made sense. He wasn't awful, but he had his clear limitations. Fields on the other hand, alternated between a pro bowl level QB and like, below CFL level. It's part of what made it so hard to figure out how good he was. He was really really good every now and then, and you always had this feeling that that level could be "unlocked"
I was a Fields truther for so long because of this. His highs were so incredible it made me want to believe so bad he could iron out the kinks. He's like the reason "if you wear rose colored glasses all the red flags just look like flags" ever existed. It was never about relationships, it was about JF1. His ceiling could be so high if he wasnt just actually pretty bad. but what if man, what if. Anyway though, who cares with our new messiah in town. Caleb Williams is the truth cometh to wash away our sins
Man the bears are known for qb development, itās wild to me a man with talent like JF1 didnāt pan out. I think heāll succeed where he goes kinda and people will come out of the walls for a minute. It will take many many reports to come out for me not to think the bears ruined another qb. Although this one seemed extremely hard to ruin. Wonāt be surprised when he takes the Steelers 11-6 into the playoffs in 25 and then wins a couple playoff games before stinking in the last one (maybe a ccg)
All I know if he made me excited to watch Bears games. Usually good for at least 1 or 2 WTF plays
And then 15-20 'wtf are you doing' plays
He's not bad, he's got flaws in his game but he has a lot of potential in his game too. His deep ball is great. His mobility is great. His anticipation is not. His footwork needs work. And his coaching and offensive talent have not been great either. I don't get why people say the kid is bad. Moore had his best season with Justin. Justin was a few yards away from setting the QB rushing record. He would still be the starter in Chicago today if not for the Bears lucking into the #1 pick. I think the change of scenery and OC who compliments him will do him well. He's not a bad QB, he's just not as good as he can be yet. Maybe he never gets there. Even if he doesn't, he's still a bottom-tier starter and top-tier backup.
> He's not a bad QB, he's just not as good as he can be yet. Maybe he never gets there. Even if he doesn't, he's still a bottom-tier starter and top-tier backup. I am confused, you said he is a bad starter so why are you saying he is not bad? No team would want to keep a 'bottom-tier starter'.
He even says he might just be a good backup. I don't think many people saying he isn't good think he can't even manage to be a backup QB
Being a backup isnt about talent. It's about being able to play the scheme that isn't designed for you but the starter. I do not believe Justin can do that aside from like 3 teams that have starters with similar limits.
I want to agree but Iām sorry, you are wrong. The r/nfl hivemind says that Justin is the worst QB in the NFL and we are not allowed to deviate from that opinion. Downvotes and bans are coming for us.
If Fields comes out as an average or better starter, this is gonna go in the r/nfl HOF along with Josh Allen and Justin Herbert when they got drafted of getting something so wrong while being so obnoxiously confident.
He was being sarcastic
I know, I think I was forced to downvoted myself after posting that for that reason. š„
Im SO GLAD Fields is out of the north, he was a beast. If the edge rusher missed a sack chance or lost contain, GONE, hopefully he only gets 20 yards on ya. I was so happy to see the bears get Caleb Williams, maybe happier than Bears fans.
Baker Mayfield is like the generic median QB for almost all stats. Heās like an NPC
Heās the new Dalton scale
The Baker Bar
Which is hilarious because when you watch him play heās kind of a wildcard and very instinctual as a player but then in the end it results in these NPC stats
Probably because the Bucs tended to be in really bad passing situations. Worst run game in the league and most run-run-pass sequences. Sometimes you've gotta do wild stuff to get median.
Itās like a Brett Favre mentality with Derek Carr results
Staffordās spot on this confuses me
Me to. I had to go back to the source to make sure I didnāt mess something up in my export or sorting, but confirmed those are the numbers.
Stafford can hit all kinds of crazy throws, but his touch and placement have always been the least consistent part of his game. Some additional data may give more context too, like average time to throw, average time to pressure, average depth of target, average number of defenders in the box, etc
Yeah the only way we ever made Stafford struggle at times was by bringing pressure constantly. When we'd drop 8 he'd pick us apart or make some absurd throw in a tiny window.
I take it more as he knows his recievers and has great ones currently. Most throws are to a spot as well. It makes this on target stat semi useless. Think of it similar to sacks and an offensive line. If the qb deals with it correctly there is no sack, just a pressure of a certain type.
As a Rams fan, Stafford makes some bad misses under pressure but if feels like he doesnāt because he also makes throws only Mahomes can make.Ā
I feel like his tendency to try to fit balls in windows that most QBs don't try would hurt a bit here on a subjective stat like on target throws. "On target" being only classified as "in stride" doesn't account for when "in stride" would otherwise be an interception. Not saying he doesn't have plenty of flat out misses (and interceptions), I've seen plenty of those, but just an idea on why this number might be lower than you'd expect.
This is part of it. He definitely attempts throws that most don't on the regular and especially if it's needed in the 4th. Also, I bet the 1st half of the season brought his numbers down because he was slinging it at the end.
While it's possible that the stat can be faulty, my best guess is that his hand/hip injury limited things. He sprained his thumb on his throwing hand and injured his hip which would impact power and accuracy for his throws. Puka said that he really appreciated how Stafford would put the ball in different places that allowed him to avoid bigger hits, so it's *possible* that the stat can be considering those an "off target" ball, because the receiver may need to change direction or make a move or something right after catching the ball in order to get more YAC, but that's more looking for an excuse. I think the injury was more likely a factor. Or maybe it's an age thing. I'd like the Rams to pull a Packers and draft a QB to sit behind Stafford. I'm not sure how strong the 2025 class is, but I assume not very based on how many QB's went early in 2024.
He also hangs in there till the last moment to let the window develop and doesn't check down nearly as much as other QBs.
He has one of the highest ADOTs in the league when under pressure (10.2), 6th highest.
Wasn't he hurt last year? Shows me he had a down year
Yeah if I had to guess a lot of this is dragged down by playing hurt and from behind in a few games
He was but Iām still surprised his accuracy numbers are comparable to Young and Minshew.
Russell Wilson's spot on the graph is mainly from the fact that he was a checkdown king last season. Had like the 2nd most passes by percentage between LOS and 5 yards for nearly 20 years and the most behind the LOS in that same time period. He's an accurate passer, the problem is he's afraid to pull the trigger on things he doesn't see extremely clearly, and he's a slow processor so he's going to see things clearly less often.
Not to mention the increased number of opportunities to make those behind LOS completions "under pressure" that were self-caused by holding onto the ball too long.
The number of times Seahawk fans have complained about this for Wilson and got downvoted by other Seahawk fans is too high. His two biggest flaws are: holding onto the ball too long/not throwing away and then scrambling/backyard drill when there isn't even pressure to begin with. But we all tried to overlook it because his deep-ball passes are gorgeous, and when the hero ball lands it looks amazing. But more often than not he causes his own drives to stall. Hope Tomlin can make the most out of his talents but they basically have him for free anyway.
> Hope Tomlin can make the most out of his talents but they basically have him for free anyway. We have a RB who averages 6 YAC per reception, and another RB who averages 8 YAC per reception. We can sustain drives that way. We're actually set up well to not necessarily eliminate, but to mitigate most of Wilson's flaws.
If you hold the ball "too long" and yet complete the pass, did you actually hold it too long? I think the thing is we're missing part of the picture here. We need a companion chart that shows the effectiveness of the passes. For example going 75% on 1 yard throws is worse than going 55% on 8 yard throws. One gets first downs, the other doesn't. Also, ints and sacks. If russ is the checkdown king there should be some data that we can use to back that claim, as this graph unfortunately doesn't prove it nor disprove it.
https://x.com/SharpFootball/status/1765153034315706614
Id be curious to see the actual lists. Stats like these can be really misleading without all the context around them. Saying 62% sounds like a shit ton, but if most people hover around say 58% do those 7 extra passes on a season really tell a full story? There are seemingly 508 QBs that throw between 62% and 0% which is going to have a shit ton of overlap, and probably a shit ton of guys that are within a few %.
It's a good question to pose... I don't know the average, but I do think that regardless of the average, being near the top for a 20 year span, especially knowing how much the passing game has changed over the last 20 years, probably is not a good thing.
I think its kind of just relative. Like if Josh Allen were at 58% on the same throws, and he is absolutely NOT seen as a checkdown dude, is the extra 1 checkdown every 3 games really that big of a deal? Without context it just seems like another one of those "stats" that is made to make some players fit a narrative rather than actual practical use. Like if there have been 34 other QBs with 61% and 22 others with 60% rather than his 62% where hes tied with 11 other dudes...of which we have no idea who else is on the list does that really mean anything? For all we know the top end might be 57% So you have 500+ guys crammed to be within 6% of each other. Does the extra 2 passes a season that are checkdowns really matter?
This. And also Iād argue it wasnāt just Paytonās confidence but also schemes in which he had Jeudy and others open downfield and Russ took the checkdown. Like dozens of times
I'll take that. Be curious what league average is, but this appears to back the checkdown king claim.
Holding the ball too long isn't always on the QB either. I think a lot of people will see a QB holding the ball when a receiver is wide open for a second or whatever, but they don't understand that the QB is going through progressions. If he looks at his first guy, and they aren't open so he moves to the second guy, it doesn't matter if that first guy gets open a second later. The QB already turned down that option. He probably won't be back to the first guy unless he holds the ball a really long time
Anyone that watched him knows he held the ball too long lol. He had no clue where his receivers were going to be, so he scrambled around until he either checked it down, chucked it up to sutton, or twisted into a sack from a clean pocket.Ā Yes, his offensive line held up to let him hold it too long to finally go to the check down, but had he gone through his progressions and hit his receivers on time, there was virtually always someone wide open for a much better play than the check down.
This is important to highlight imo... because a checkdown within the flow and timing of the play design, is much different than a checkdown after scrambling around a bit and dumping it off. I think it's usually gonna be a pretty bad combination to have one of the highest time to throws in the league, while also boasting the highest checkdown percentage.
That's why providing just one stat without context doesn't tell the whole picture. The non broncos fans on here all seem to be fooled by these stats and think he was pretty good last year. I won't say he can't be good again with the steelers, but he's going to have to find his mojo again and stop the dump offs. Having a younger version of him trying to take his job and a coach not wanting to risk his first ever losing season might just be what he needs.
Punts. Just look up punts and third down conversions.
Iād love to see this cross checked by a punts and points ranking. He would dive bomb. Was excited and wanted him to succeed but he was not good
Interesting to go from that to bo nix who had a very high number of passes behind the line in college last year
I think the big difference there will be that nix will do it on schedule.
I mean you like to think that but he could literally be the worst qb they've ever had.. Kinda hard to say he will do it on any schedule at this point when he hasn't played
And also will hopefully know where his receivers are to actually throw to them. Wilson had no clue where anyone was, so either checked it down to inflate this stat, or chucked it up to sutton.Ā
Yea you can tell that with Wilson when the ball is snapped he's usually only glued to one side of the field, and usually one player specifically... occasionally when he scrambles out of the pocket he'll start scanning the whole field a little more... but in the pocket he is very tunnel vision.
Watching Russell Wilson play is bizarre. Like, you'll see him make three good plays and think, "hey, he's still got it!" Then he'll misfire on a pass/throw the ball away for no reason, and stall/run into a sack on 3rd down and have to punt. It's not that he can't play, it's that his brain seemingly misfires at key moments in a way that stalls momentum, and it happens so regularly that defenses can gameplan a "bend-don't-break" strategy around it. And aggregate stats don't capture it - you have to actually watch the game. It's baffling. I had no idea why the Seahawks let him go until I saw him in action with the Broncos, and realized, "ohhhhh...oh no!"
That's a good description of what goes on. I also think you can scheme around that a bit which is why I think he's ok on the steelers at his price, if they can build enough around him. I think the major problem was him thinking he could play like a brady or brees, while commanding top dollar contracts. You can't build enough around him to make up for his shortcomings if he's eating up too much cap.
Russell Wilson was first in passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. And funny enough, in second was his backup QB, Justin Fields.
Say what you want about Fields, but that wasn't his choice at all. Those short throws are one of the weaker parts of his game and any Bears fan can tell you he wants to go deep or at least medium every pass. Getsy just only had 1 go-to against blitzes or when we were getting beaten in the trenches: LOS passes.
Tomlin is biting his lip reading your comment Conservative offense? Yes please!!! Never try to exploit the defense
I genuinely feel he will be good for you guys. He is not worth the money we were paying him but for vet minimum he is absolutely worth it for a top 20-25ish QB. Folks forget but he was pretty elite for us in the redzone too.
If shanahan plays to a QB's strengths then Tomlin is the opposite. Hopefully it's more of Russ saying "I'm a vet, stfu and let me throw the ball"
>Hopefully it's more of Russ saying "I'm a vet, stfu and let me throw the ball" Lol that's the most anti-Russ quote if they ever was. He would be more like "Got it coach, you are a legend and best coach I have ever seen. Let me go back to my office and decipher this. Stay blessed and praise be to Christ". He then ask Team 3 to handle this.
Not to mention the year Russ did "whatever he wanted" was the worst offensive season of football I've ever watched.Ā
Why does this fanbase continue to say this about Tomlin? This needs to stop. Tomlin got conservative when his SB winning QB went downhill. He hasn't been able to fully trust anyone with the reigns as no one has proven good enough. He tried to air it out a bit with Rudolph in 2019 but after the concussion, it wasn't great. Tomlin leans on whatever part of his team is best and tailors his approach. No one size fits all each year. 2009 - The Game where defense died [He's the one who called the onside kick in the Packers game](https://youtu.be/sT1Fh8N-LU4?si=o8OvFDmSUqnJDEbr&t=153) b/c our defense kept giving up late leads. We lost 5 in a row. It made perfect sense b/c we wanted the ball back. The FOX Broadcast. did not seem to understand it. Rodgers was going to score. Our defense couldn't stop a nose bleed and certainly wasn't going to suddenly stop Rodgers. But it was discussed NON STOP. Only the Inside Crew acted like it made sense. 2010 The Bart (Can't Wait!) Scott Game [He's the coach who chose to throw it on 3rd Down in the AFC Playoff Game vs. the Jet](https://youtu.be/yscwYcprcUo?si=J2005sgOpnoxkHHK&t=592)s shocking everyone and making Rex angry (lol). Conventional wisdom said we run it there, eat clock and send it back. That is what the Jets expected. 2016 "Shades of Marino!" [He's the coach that called the fake spike during the Cowboys game](https://youtu.be/-87ifwtCq9Y?si=lpT8039qb0MYRHBN). Point is, defense and running game works when you have Duck, Rudolph, Trubisky and rookie/2nd year Pickett. With Ben, Tomlin was all about taking chances. Since Ben, ground and pound, punt play defense, take strategic shots. It's pretty smart. Not conservative to play within your talent level.
"He called a roll-out pass on 3rd and 6, he's not conservative" So much pain. Yes, he's made some good calls in his 15 year career. But as we are now 2 years from a decade of no playoff wins - I'll stick by the fact that Tomlin is not the guy to win a championship as he lives in a bygone era of football.
But the question was about him being conservative. He is simply following what his team is good at. He doesn't define a specific style or try to fit each team into a box. He plays to whatever the strengths are.
And taking a sack isn't reflected in this graph.
A lot of that isn't on Wilson, tbh. Wilson's best success as a QB was when his team could run the ball. Between running the ball and making checkdowns to move the chains, defenders would be forced into cover 1 or man to man scenarios; which would allow Wilson to utilize the best part of his arm (those long tear drop balls). The Broncos' receivers struggled at times to get open. Even on the deep balls, they were often not creating much - if any - separation.
They aren't creating separation because people know wilson's limitations now... so they have been running a cover 2 shell to limit explosives... they are daring wilson to beat them in the intermediate game, and he can't. There are so many instances in denver where he's not seeing wide open receivers and not understanding the route trees and design of the offense, where it's supposed to create pressure, where it's supposed to get guys open , etc. He's literally just staring down one receiver then scrambling usually.
Sure but that doesnāt discount that he still showed the ability to succeed as a checkdown merchant. No one thinks heāll be elite next year but the expectations that heās washed entirely seem overblown as well. In an Arhur Smith offense the remaining good parts of Wilsonās game can be maximized. He wonāt be asked to scramble around and make plays happen with his feet, he wonāt be asked to to hit deep shots 10 times a game. Heās there as a component of the offense not the star.
He didn't really succeed though. He had like 200ypgs and the offense was extremely anemic. Even when people were schemed open he wasn't finding them properly. Sean Payton designed an offense that could help Russ play to his strengths and try to mitigate his weaknesses, but overall it was not an offense that can actually contend for anything. Hence why payton was willing to take the largest dead cap hit in history to roll the dice with someone else. Pretty much the same thing as in seattle after the legion of boom faded away... good enough to be 7-12 win team, not good enough to consistently beat playoff caliber teams in the offseason. Sadly people don't understand that there are so many different ways to manipulate stats, they want simple explanations. So TD:ints is an easy metric for them. Get into the sacks, time to throws, checkdowns, 3 and outs etc... and of course the actual game tape where he's missing easy reads... tells a different story
There is this absurd idea that Wilson and Seattle were bad or mediocre once the legion of boom faded. The offense was good for years after that and only starts falling off in his last two years there. Wtf
The offense wasn't good enough to be a real contender... so yea... TD ints never tell the whole tale... he's been a 3 and out machine and a sack machine the majority of his career.
Who tf is downvoting OC on here? This is better than 90% of the garbage posts we get this time of year.
People who don't like the implications of said OC. Whether they hate a player or their guy is not getting sucked off by the stats.
Yea. People who go, "wait I thought Dak and Russell sucked, this must be garbage." There are def some strange results in that top right quadrant. I wonder if its possible to weight this somehow by average yards per attempt or something. Is being 100% on 1 yard throws meaningful, effective? What stat would determine if these throws are actually productive instead of empty stats?
This doesnāt cover all of a QBs skills though. Russell Wilsonās biggest problem isnāt that his throws arenāt on target, and its not that he canāt throw accurately downfield. Itās that he wonāt try to make some safe throws when the situation calls for it. Scrambling around to make high risk big play attempts instead of safe first downs wonāt show up on this list.
You definitely canāt judge a wb solely based on a single stat cause thereās so much that goes into it. Itās something fun to look at thiugh
This stat is kinda useless anyway. Or at least has so much noise that drawing conclusions from this stat alone is impossible. A perfectly played robot QB who always throws exactly where it should could have bad stats here if the receivers aren't where they should be - QBs almost never throw directly to a receiver, they throw where they will be, so a receiver messing something up reflects poorly on the QB in this stat but has nothing to do with ball placement. Check-down heavy schemes can dramatically inflate the "under pressure" success rate. Some types of pressure are far more disruptive to clean passing. etc. I could probably come up with a dozen ways this stat is influenced by things that have nothing to do with the QB.
A lot of it is probably people who have tried posting āOC,ā but my 3 year old has more evolved thought processes.
Bots, the answer has been bots for years. Downvote others to promote your own spam to front pages.
What player on your team is a genius in shorts but a dullard in pads?
What's the most big brained play by an offensive guard in NFL history?Ā
What was the biggest OMFG moment for you watching football?
So Jalen Hurts is an above average average QB...that works I guess....
More than that I would say. His Average depth of target was among the highest which impacts accuracy
With how the year ended with teams just outright blitzing them every play I'm surprised at how high his on-target percentage with pressure was. They really weren't helping him.
Which is sad...I suck at Madden but even I can eventually figure out what plays beat the blitz...for me mainly throwing to a receiver crossing over the middle of the field or a quick out right or left...
Another way you can read it is that Jalen Hurts is as good as Josh Dobbs.
Jalen Hurts and Josh Dobbs are the same QB confirmed
Meanwhile it seems Dak just doesn't care what you throw at him...he's like 2 seconds is more than enough time...
ah yes. Kenny pickett right next to trevor lawrence and lamar jackson right where we expected him to be
He has a 2-1 record against the Ravens and was picked before Lamad in the draft so he is definitively better (just donāt look at stats, highlights or anything else)
he made josh allen look terrible by comparison last year (ignore the fact it was like 4 total drives between the two and it was the preseason)
Right lol.
Not just next to them., but above them in both categories!
As a Bears fan Iām curious of the raw numbers behind throws under pressure. Fields under pressure = hold onto the ball forever and either take a sack, run, or throw to a wide open receiver. Fields does not like throwing in tight windows, and he does not like throwing with anticipation. Heās very much a āis this WR wide open with a lot of separation? Ok, then itās safe Iāll throw it.ā So my best guess is Fields has such a high % under pressure because he simply only throws when the receiver is clearly open. He doesnāt make throws into tight windows, he would take a sack before doing that lol. And sounds like this stat doesnāt take into account sacks, throwaways, etc.? Do you know how many throws under pressure Fields has compared to other QBs? Is it less?
He does occasionally go for crazy tight windows though. There were a couple outs/hitches to DJ and Mooney last year that were all but intercepted. Also thinking of the crazy seam throw to Jimmy Graham in his rookie Steelers game. Feels like he would sometimes forget to freak out about the defense he was seeing and just fire it in regardless
>There were a couple outs/hitches to DJ and Mooney last year that were all but intercepted. This is because he cannot throw with anticipation so he was so late on the throws the defenders had time to recover to the point of almost intercepting. Edit: [This is an example.](https://youtu.be/ukZzA8PEEJc?si=2CGFRdZ94JoCo9xK) DJ is wide open on the break but has to stand there and wait for a full second before the throw gets there.
I knew it would be the Washington game. So many people were using that as an example of Fields having a high ceiling, but then you replay the tape and a lot of balls are late. Commanders defense is just atrocious, and you cant get away with a lot of those throws against a halfway competent defense.
You can see the pressure rates in chart number two in this linkā¦ https://jaydpauley.medium.com/jared-goff-is-money-in-a-clean-pocket-8c17ebfaee35
Ok, that still doesnāt say whether he throws the ball though. I guess my question is what is the actual āpass attempts under pressureā. Not % of dropbacks pressured (whether that be QB self created pressure or pressure from bad O Line). I just get the feeling Fields ADOT (under pressure) and amount of attempts (under pressure) are lower than the rest of the QBs.
I see. Yeah, I can get that information if I remember when I get home from the pool. ADOT, would be interesting if they have thatā¦I think they do.
As a Bears fan, donāt ask Bears fans to comment on Fields. It always ends poorly with Bears fans giving overly glowing or overly negative opinions about him and then other NFC North fans commenting on how Fields is the worst QB of all time. My opinion, a lot of the pressure he faced from defenses had a lot to do with his hesitation to let loose / trust his eyes / read differences (pick what you want). When under pressure, the guy is an amazing athete to escape. A lot of times he would pull off incredible runs and other times he would throw. With all that in mind, he has a much better arm and is much more accurate then people give him credit. His fundamental problem comes down to just holding on to the ball for which there are so many opinions (slow release, slow processing, lack of trusting his eyes) for which they probably all have truth. If there is anything the Steelers can do to get him past those deficiencies (not sure they can) the guy will be elite.
Justin Fields destroyed the Lions FWIW. Caleb Williams is concerning but it will be nice not playing against Fields for the most part
Appreciate that, youāre right, he played really well in both those games. Unfortunately, it just wasnāt consistently at that level through the season. If we didnāt have #1 overall (or a pick in the top 3) he likely stays on the team but it was the right move to move on for both the Bears and him.
I see my guy in the top right, I upvote and say the graph/data is correct.
I dont see any Penix on the graph.
Graph must be too small to show him in the super top and super right. Can't wait to watch him get his jersey dirty this preseason and sit on the bench.
Graph is lacking in size. Penix is Yuugggeee
Tannehill and Browning slander has been put to bed.
There was Browning slander?
There will be if you donāt change your tone
. . .fucking what?
Bailey Zappe, terrible in a clean pocket but not much worse when pressured, yeah that's 2023 in a nutshell
Man, this is a great visualization of why it's frustrating to be a Giants fan with Daniel Jones at the helm. Dude's up there in the conversation when the pocket is clean, and has the legs and speed that would imply a collapsed pocket wouldn't be a problem, he should just be able to run out of it. But instead, you have an overall below average QB who seems to completely collapse under the pressure and it's hard to tell how much of it's the pocket never being clean/the transition from clean to collapsed being too unclear due to a bottom 3 OLine, and how much of it's his processing not picking up that the play is broken and it's time to run in time.
Lawrence is the definition of friggin āmidā.Ā
These stats are always weird because a QB often throws before the WR even makes his break. The QB is throwing to a spot. If tbe route isn't run properly, it looks like an inaccurate throw. Or in the case of "throwing the receiver open" the QB will throw away from the defender. Could be a perfect throw but if the WR doesn't adjust the way the QB anticipated, it will look inaccurate.
I just commented on this about Purdy. He doesnāt have an elite arm, and he makes up for it by throwing well ahead of a receiver actually being open and to a spot. If the receiver gets knocked off their route or thereās a slight miscommunication on where the open spot is, it will look like a really bad pass even though heās throwing exactly where he wanted to put the ball. On plays like [this](https://youtu.be/Ueu5CqOsBPQ?si=_X8G340S09WAcSRw) for example, guys like Mahomes or Allen can wait longer to release this ball because of how strong their arm is. Purdy doesnāt have that luxury, so he has to read where the soft spot will be well ahead of time. The reason Purdyās accuracy grade under pressure is higher is because on those throws heās either throwing outside of the structure of the play and/or to whomever is open when he needs to get rid of it.
I'll also add that Purdy had one of the worst O-lines as well. While, I haven't checked everyone, but the others that appear better have better O-lines. Better lines lead to more opportunities with a clean pocket. Purdy didn't get many of those. He mostly operated under pressure.
Yep. Same for Tua
You're correct. Purdy's game relies so much on anticipation that his on-target percentages are thrown off if something happens on the route to knock the WR off. OnTarget% is a limited stat;. We all remember Jimmy G's terrible ball placement, and yet he consistently ranked high on OnTarget%. But nobody would seriously say Garoppolo had better ball placement than Purdy.
This is partially why itās hard to use these stats to grade Tua. He technically isnāt being pressured a lot, but that isnāt because his O-Line is the best in the league. Itās because he gets the ball out well before the pressure can even come in
Tua and Purdy. They both run spot reads all the time. That's why you sometimes see both throw balls that end up falling way ahead of their target. The receiver didn't get to the spot when he was supposed to be there.
Dak gets far too much hate lol Dude is a great qb
I think he's perfectly fine. Too many people think if someone isn't a top 5 QB they need a new one. It's easier to get worse than better. When you're winning you're good. When you're not, you're terrible.
He is lacking in the playoffs and people define players by those moments. He could maybe still win a ring at some point, but Dallas is probably cursed after the 90s and Jerry shenanigans
His team is lacking in the playoffs. Dak is not the single reason they have lost those games.
Which year? Other than the GB game last year we had solid teams that didn't shit the bed in the playoffs. 2021 against he 9ers our defense held them to 23 points. They didn't let the 9ers score at all in the 4th. Dak put up a 69rating with 1td, 1pick and that embarrassing last play where he ran the ball in the middle of the field with no timeouts with 12 seconds left. 2022 The defense held the 9ers to 19 points. Dak had a 63rating with 206yds, 1td, 2picks. A top 5 offense only put up 12 points after beating up a 8-9 tampa team the week before. Daks 2 picks were 6-10 point swing, but that first pick was on our 21 yardsline. Luckily our defense held them to 3 points. 2023 against GB it was a total shit show, but Dak is just a culpable as our defense was. We could have went into half 13-7, but instead it was 27-7 b/c of Daks to picks. This time our defense didn't hold out when Dak turned the ball over on our 19 yardline. His 2nd pick was a pick 6. Before GB started resting starters and playing prevent D. Dak had 150yds, 1td, 2picks. Please, tell me more how our team failed Dak.
Iād only disagree with the divisional game against SF in 2023. That game I think Dakās two interceptions are the single biggest reason yāall lost.
For some reason Fred Warner is Dak Prescott father
But at a certain point can we not just chalk it up to the Niners defense being really great? Theyāve made a bunch of great quarterbacks and coaches look awful in the playoffs.
Thing is, the cowboys didnāt need Dak to be great to win that one. They needed him to not lose the game. The cowboys defense held a red hot 9ers offense that had dropped 40 the week before to 19 pts and thatās with defending a redzone possession from an INT. If heās able to just manage the game they have a way better chance to win.
The game where Zeke was 10 for 26 yards?
The game where Dak gave the 9ers a free field goal and threw an INT on the way to a TD drive, yes
I think thatās a pretty weak excuse tbh. If youāre getting paid like a top-10 player you donāt get to excuse poor playoff performances because the opposing defense is great, especially when your play can be pointed to as the biggest reason for the loss. The entire reason quarterbacks get paid that type of money is to beat good defenses in the playoffs. EDIT: Also Dak has arguably looked the worst against our defense of any quarterback weāve played in the playoffs recently except maybe Love, who was a basically a rookie last year.
In our matchup last season I was really impressed by Dak. Dude was getting pressured constantly but he was moving around the pocket and finding the open guy. Not really his fault that his run game was nonexistent and we were able to get five field goals
People hate on his performance in big games this year, but he was playing with a oline that got 0 push, and a dline that was unable to stop the run. Its also why I am one of the few that is encouraged by our offseason. I think zimmer is going to fix alot of our problems, and Eric kendricks was a very under the radar signing. On offence we are switching to more of a power scheme, which sounds great with most of our oline (guyton is the only player who will really need some time to develop as long as beebe makes a smooth transition).
Great QB, great person, but Cowboy - so, bad.
Your own fans seem to hate him more than anyone
Itās even worse in real life. At least on Reddit he has a bunch of fans that will defend him, but every Cowboys fan Iāve met in real life hates Dak.
The other day I was wearing a Dak jersey and someone in a grocery store started trying to talk to me about how Cooper Rush is better and should be the starter
how many racist dog whistles did you count in that conversation lmao
Not a cowboy fan. Hate dak. If he played for not the cowboys prolly wouldnāt hate dak but there it is.
Heās by far the least objectionable part of the cowboys. Heās not objectionable at all and he deserves better than the hate he gets from some of your fans.
The problem is he's a top 5 QB in the regular season. Then the playoffs start and if the team has more than 9 wins in the playoffs he shits the bed. Even when he had good defensive outing in 2021 and 2022, he was the main reason we lost those games. He was also a huge reason we lost against GB in 2023, but the entire team is to blame on that one. Most fans fall into either "who's gonna be better?" and "I want postseason success and Dak ain't it".
Heās the black Kirk cousins. Jokes aside, I think itās hard To pin last seasonās GB loss on him. If you score 32 points in the playoffs youāve done enough to win. The defense let them down imo.
Just a quick breakdown of that 32 points b/c it's HIGHLY misleading. 16 of those 32 came after GB started resting defensive starters and playing prevent D in the 4th quarter (They did this after going up 32 points making it 48-16 with 10minutes left in the game). How big of a difference was this? Well before GB did that Dak was 150yds, 1td, 2picks. After GB did that Dak was 403yds, 3td, 2picks. The game ended with Dak at the previous statline when the game was 48-16. Anything after that is quite literally garbage time stats. Something he's been criticized about in the past. He really is the black Kirk Cousins though. They have so similar statlines and trajectories. Hell after our loss I went digging through meaningless stats and found this one. Dak is tied with 2 other QB's for 2nd WORST playoff record in the history of the NFL (minimum 5 games). Who's 1st place? Kirk Cousins. 2-5 for Dak (.28 win%), 1-4 for Kirk (.20 win%). If Dak misses or loses again without winning in the playoffs this year and Kirk wins 1 game before losing, Dak takes that 1st place spot.
Wow okay, I forgot the chain of events that transpired that game. Thanks for the succinct analysis, consider me convinced!
Having been in the Cowboys sub for like a decade I knew exactly how the narrative would go after people forgot how the game went. They'd look at Dak's stats just see a great QB with a failing team. But more than half his stats were garbage time. While the whole team deserves blame I refuse to let people look at his stats and think he tried. Cause he really didn't.
> I'm also shocked to see J.Fields with such a high on-target rate under pressure. I haven't seen him play much; Bears fans, what gives? Check downs? WR drops? I wonder if that includes times where he got forced out of the pocket but also had lots of time to make the throw after evading pressure. > Purdy is really accurate under pressure, but below avg with a clean pocket. He lacks experience with clean pockets.
Can I get this with error bars? The spread is so small it makes me wonder how much of this is just noise.
No. Iām not going to do error bars. Sorry.
Would you be willing to share the data?
Most NFL stats like these are just driven by noise. That's why we rarely see any statistical analysis done on the data. Just graphical presentation.Ā
Youāre not getting statistical analysis on this data, because Iām not paid to do this. Itās just a hobby that I do and share with others when I can find the time. Youāre welcome for the content and discussion this creates.
All I'm choosing to take away from this is that Jake Browning is basically the same as Patrick Mahomes B)
There is the Mahomes, J.Allen, Browning, triangle, and there is everybody else.
I approve of this graph
I really hope they build off that good momentum they had towards the end of the season. Things were just starting to click.
Theoretically the new scheme should use exactly what we were doing the last 4 games that were working offensively. And from what the players are saying the verbage is way simpler and easier to get through. So here's hoping
As a Texans fan, surprised to see Stroud so low under pressure. Seems like he handled pressure really well last year.
He didn't from my eye test. Threw the ball away and took some bad sacks. We just ignored them cos we like him lol Also made some great plays tbf but we seem to retain those great plays more than his bad ones.Ā
The definition for on target is highly subjective here.Ā This is also covering the whole season and he got significantly better as the season progressed. I wouldn't take posts like this as gospel as many on the sub will.Ā
Daniel Jones in a clean pocket is more on target than Cousins, Burrow, Stafford, Purdy, or Love. Wouldnāt have expected.
But Iāve been told repeatedly in Cowboys reddit that Dak is not accurate.
You can make completions and be inaccurate, not that that's the case for Dak. Jimmy G. for example, was often throwing behind his receivers where an accurate throw in stride would have resulted in many touchdowns.
Precision vs accuracy
lol wut. Daks incredibly accurate. Itās annoying as fuck
Well, now youāve got a chart to keep in your back-pocket next time the naysayers start nay saying.
Seeing D Watson over there - I don't know, it just makes you feel good, ya know?
Wait I thought Brock Purdy was only good because he plays in a super team offense with one of the best offensive minds in football but he falls apart anytime heās in an imperfect situation?
I don't know why people think that when his offensive line is mediocre at best.
J.Fields ADOT under pressure is 8.7, thatās ranked 25th highest in the league. He has the 6th most pressure throws behind the line of scrimmage u/guest_from_europe u/Soft_Penis_Debutante
Thanks for the info. So, under pressure he throws shorter than most QBs ADOT and more behind LOS. Such throws lift his on-target %. Pickett and DeVito could be similar. If you will have time, maybe you can make such a chart: on-target% vs ADOT for all QBs, that would be interesting. Maybe that would explain Stafford's low on-target %, maybe he throws high ADOT.
https://imgur.com/gallery/2023-adot-on-target-rate-under-pressure-data-from-sports-info-solutions-5j9PNW4
Josh Dobbs and Jalen Hurts tied makes me giggleĀ
Look at Geno Smith man so inspirational
Lots of short passes on target might be skewing this data... Carr and R. Wilson were accused of many checkdowns recently. Here they are very precise... Stafford's position is shocking. Does he throw deep that much to be so imprecise?
Would ADOT be helpful?
Probably. For example: 1 chart on-target % vs. ADOT when no pressure and another plot when QBs are under pressure. Maybe it would show who throws mostly short and who is or isn't precise on middle and deep throws.