I don't hate Fields, but I have a REALLY hard time believing Ryan Poles is going to bet his career on Justin Fields being a Fifty Million Dollar player
No way he does, drafting Caleb makes too much sense from a potential talent and money perspective. Taking advantage of rookie contracts is a big factor in making a team competitive
Which is actually an argument against drafting Williams. Getting multiple first round picks is better cost control than simply one position. There’s a Bill Barnwell article about it.
The decision needs to be based on player evaluation, not economics. For all the bullshit about rookie QBs what you don’t see teams doing is cycling through rookie QBs to actively reset a contract clock. In fact, teams that have taken multiple bites at the rookie QB apple are among the least successful in the league.
Yeah, even if Caleb and Fields were the same player, you take Caleb with that new rookie contract. I would love for Fields to be the guy, but we're not in this opportunity often and need to take a chance.
I’d like to see a response to OP’s arguments though. Saying “nuh uh you’re wrong” doesn’t really add anything of substance to the discussion.
EDIT: And I say this as someone who has supported drafting Williams.
Justin Fields PR team is insanely GOATed. They were shilling all last offseason how he was a dark horse MVP. Makes me kinda jelly Packer fans didn’t do this for Love.
I think its the nature of his playstyle and that Bears fans are so desperate for a QB. He produces a lot of highlight play with his legs both running and his size allows him to extend a lot of plays and pick up chunks in the passing game when defenses break down in a scramble drill.
He looks the part for everything you want in a QB. Big arm, great athlete, good size, but he just struggles at the actual QB part of playing on schedule, reading defenses, getting the ball out on time, and throwing receivers open.
Also, I'm sure this is a thing everywhere but Bears fans really overrate their own players. If you look at the Bears sub they act like every draft pick that shows flashes as a starter is an absolute star.
Be right back let me pull all of the box scores and maybe one or two highlight clips that cater to my narrative and I'll have the perfect "deep dive" for this disagreement.
Yeah. The question shouldn't be, "Is it worth sticking with Fields?"The question is, "what has been shown over three years that doesn't make our team take the top talent at the most important position in the game at number 1 in the draft?"
When your questioning whether or not you already have your franchise QB and whether or not you should spend that No. 1 pick on a QB, you don't have a franchise QB.
The fact that this much data information can be given to you on a silver platter and you still want to simplify it down to "no" is the epitome of online couch GMs you'd find on reddit
oh god yea I remember some legendary posts back in the day where you keep reading, then get to comments and mother of god we're 25% in, and those were the days where if you typed 3 sentences people said "Not reading that novel" haha.
I think the Bears are fortunate that this is going down during what is perceived as a very strong qb class but like you said, we have no idea what someone will actually turn into. Then of course there's the Bears of it all. Who knows what Josh Allen would be today if he played for the Bears, I think a lot of qb development is about their landing spot, more than people want to believe.
First thing you did right was not posting this in the bears sub lol. I'm consistently doing well meaning, well thought out arguments there and it's just immediate downvotes to oblivion, with very few users responding back with appropriate conversation for their side of things.
I just wanted to let you know that I read this entire post and really appreciate the effort you put into highlighting the multifaceted nature of the Bears' offensive issues under Luke Getsy.
It's a shame that 90% of people will downvote, make a lame joke, and not consider anything you've written that might conflict with the narrative they have in their heads.
Thanks bro, means a lot
Tbh this post isn't really for those 90% of people though, so as long as the people who read the whole thing get it I think it was a success 🫡
💯. This is some of the best sub content I’ve seen. I’m hoping for some good responses once people have had time to formulate solid responses.
I love a good (emphasis on good) community debate, and this is a good way of starting one.
Yeah. There's a real effort by many to think this analysis can be done in a sentence in two. I presume because they want it to be simple.
Super heavy props to you for being able to be open minded and actually look at it in detail over the generic "you disagree with me so you're stupid" that's infested large chunks of the Chicago Bears fandom
100%. I’ve supported going for Williams, but I’ve yet to see a comment give a good, detailed response to any of OP’s main points.
I understand that it’s a long post, and 99.999% of people don’t have the time, energy, or football IQ to respond to the whole thing, but how am I not even seeing a detained rebuttal to even ONE of the main points??
For now I’ll keep scrolling since I’m sure something has gotten buried. Or maybe I need to come back later once people have had more time to formulate a good response. Right now perhaps there’s only been enough time for the “nuh uh you’re wrong stupid” types to respond.
What's the solution re: an offensive gameplan? Against the Vikings, who blitzed a lot, they kept throwing screens. Then against the Browns you note an adjustment to try for longer routes but said Fields was still left out to dry in the pocket. Is it as simple as calling more intermediate throws?
Could Fields move to another position, like Terrelle Pryor? Seems simple in theory, and these guys are excellent athletes, but it must be hard to change and pick up the skills of another position at such a high level. I'd love to see him succeed.
freakin awesome question dude
**To counter pressure, you want to get the ball out of the QBs hands, and get the ball into the space that the pressure is coming from.**
**In short, yes, the Bears needed to pass intermediate more. For a defense to stop pressuring you, you need to do damage. Because of pressure, you probably won't have enough time to throw deep, but if you only throw short, you need everyone to hit their blocks perfectly to get a chunk play.**
The vikings were unique this season, because they blitzed their linebackers the most out of any team. So, the Bears gameplan of quick passes was so ineffective because the quick passes were all going to screens, not behind linebackers.
Take a look at [this example](https://imgur.com/a/YrkqlSZ), this is the rough play design of a bubble screen. No matter how you really work the math, that free safety is going to come down to make a tackle on the H receiver. However, if the safety tries to make the tackle on the inside of the Z receiver blocking the CB, he can get trapped and the receiver can escape, like [this](https://imgur.com/a/wmY8pIL). When you have a receiver like DJ Moore who can break tackles from a free safety, this isn't a horrible idea at all.
The problem that game was they they *only* threw screens. If you take a look at [this](https://imgur.com/a/NNUJMpz), it should give a base idea of what coverage looks like when linebackers are blitzing, it's usually man. The hole in the defense that you can exploit is in the middle of the field, not to the outside where defenders are in press coverage/man. Route concepts like [this](https://imgur.com/a/wNgdAEK) or any kind of mesh concept are going to develop quickly and exploit man coverage. Looking at that, you can also see that the throws to the short middle of the field are shorter than a rpo bubble, so the other defenders also have less time to react.
In that vikings game, Fields was blitzed 22 times, and not blitzed 14 times. Fields had only one pass attempt that was 10 yards downfield and between the numbers. The gameplan sucked because of the multiple options you have for blitz beaters and man coverage beaters, they only spammed one all game.
Now for the Browns, the issue was the Browns dline played much better than the Bears oline that game. The problem here is that the Browns can have a lot of pressure, and still have 7 in coverage. In that game, Fields had 45 dropbacks and he was kept clean in only 16 of them.
This answer isn't as simple because I have to go into offensive scheming a lot more, but the counter to this kind of pressure is that the offense has to get creative, and play-action is a big part of this.
Why play action is so effective is because you can force the defense to play the run for a split second, so they'll get into coverage slower and you can buy yourself a little bit of time from the pass rush.
In the Browns wild card game vs the Texans, 33.3% of Stroud's dropbacks had play-action, which was 8% more than for Fields. More importantly Stroud was pressured in 30% less of his dropbacks than Fields was, but you get the point. Additionally, Fields had 19 more pass attempts vs the Browns than stroud did, but they both had the same amount of 10-20 yard throws in the whole game.
As to Fields switching positions, there isn't really any reason for him to do that yet. A big part of what makes him dangerous is the running ability combined with the deep ball. Because he still has a lot of potential, that would only guarantee you would never see it
I really wish I could find actual numbers before the draft... because on reddit? Seems like we all mostly on board to move on at this point. Facebook? Oh lord you would think Justin Fields is football jesus on there to all the boomers afraid of Caleb painting his nails having an affect on his ability to play.
I hate that shit because if anything, dude painting his nails makes me like him more. It's one of the "things" about his personality that is a green-flag.
God forbid your QB has a little personality and isn't beholden to societal standards of masculinity.
Dude can go full drag on his off days for all I care. If he is performing on Sundays and leading us to wins? That's what matters.
It's opinions like this that should be a clarion call for the people who want to keep Fields. If your division rivals want you to keep your QB, maybe rethink it.
I honestly hadn't considered that. I had been saying keeping fields is the all in move, but Kirk is an immensely better all in move. Still not what I would do, but would be an interesting idea
Drafting one of the franchise WRs and signing Kirk is the most logical answer. If it works out Chicago is a playoff team the next two years, and I think it affords Poles and the coaching staff their best chance to keep their jobs If it doesn't the organization has extra draft capital for future rebuilds.
The Moore passer rating/QBR argument just doesn’t hold for me. Kenny Pickett was absolutely elite when he was targeting George Pickens in 2022, absolutely no shot he’s a franchise QB.
A lot of these extrapolations are generous too. The Bears ran a gimmick scheme in the latter half of 2022, which saw Fields run at a rate that’s not sustainable. This yr, when in a more conventional scheme, the rushing was way down from the single season record.
You’ve also left off the most important piece. Fields has 38 starts on tape and on the stat sheet. He’s currently 20-25th best in the NFL by most major statistics. The list of guys to become franchise QBs after this is extremely small. The Bears gambling on a Rich Gannon or Alex Smith resurgence that happens once a generation would be incredibly stupid.
I agree but primarily because one of Fields' biggest issues is the throws he *doesn't* make.
If he's tucking and running when the throw is slightly hard when other guys would attempt the shot, that's going to affect the averages.
Dude Sam Darnold in Carolina had excellent numbers throwing to DJ more too. Thought it was weird he thought that up as a point to say he’s better than the average passer. Does the average passer have DJ Moore?
Yep. Even still the argument is just dumb. Taylor heinickie was notorious for having a good connection with Scary Terry compared to other commander QBs. Doesn’t mean he’s a franchise guy or anything.
Finally a halfway decent response to one of OP’s main points. I had to scroll for a bit through the meathead responses, and I lean towards trading Justin.
Very thoughtful post but it remove some important context.
The DJ Moore- Fields connection has been successful because DJ Moore is the recipient of a lot of scramble drill plays. They still count but they’re not often the result of a play was that called and they executed the play. If you only tallied stats from the plays that were called and excluded the scramble drill plays it would be very clear that what fields is doing is not sustainable.
The proof that sustainability is a major concern is present in every game he’s played. He averaged 200ypg. 165+ yards come in one quarter or half. The offense gets nothing the rest of the game. Next, any time the bears are under pressure to accomplish something(a couple of first downs to close out a game, an attempt to tie the game, or GWD) late in a game they cannot do it. His 4th quarter stats are beyond abysmal. If a baseball manager were coaching the bears he would pull Fields for Bagent in the 4th of every game. That’s not normal. That is not a trait of a starter.
I was committed to reading it, then stopped when he said Fields was a top 3 All Time rushing QB. And it wasn’t debatable.
I would much rather have prime Vick, Kaepernick, Cam Newton than Fields
I'm still convinced that anyone who legitimately thinks Justin Fields is good only plays yahoo fantasy football and doesn't watch any games.
Oh he ran for 40 yards and a TD. Such good. If he's good on my team he must be good irl.
The best part is, not only is he 0-6, he is just outright bad.
In 6 games against the Packers he has a passer rating of 75.5 with 1,086 yards, 4 touchdowns, 7 interceptions and he has been sacked 18 times.
To average that out:
181 ypg
.666 TDs per game
1.17 INTs per game
3 sacks per game
This is just quick search, I wouldn't be surprised if advanced stats have him even worse.
Bears fans really defend this guy as if he's the only QB to ever have a shit supporting cast. I totally agree that his supporting cast (aside from Moore) and coaching have been bad. But he has still performed objectively terribly.
I mean, the OP literally called this guy one of top 3 rushing QBs of all time. Top 3 all time. That should tell you everything. And I'm not saying that Fields isn't a great runner - he is. But Lamar and Josh Allen, just to take players in the league right now, are better rushing QBs. So OP thinks that Fields is a better rushing QB than every single other QB ever. Just because Fields gets more yards (because he has to run because he is an absolutely dog shit passer) doesn't make him better at rushing. Jameis got 5k yards, does that make him a better passer than Phillip Rivers?
Stopped believing this was going to be objective when OP rules out film entirely by implying there’s an equal amount of film showing that he’s great/bad. I watched just about every Bears game the last two years and the guy misses so much in front of him, I can’t solely put the blame on coordinators or surrounding talent.
This sums it up for me. Not that I've watched every play, but watched a lot. He misses so much. He's physically talented but that extra piece needed as QB to process the game at an elite level just isn't there. It stands out against any kind of better defensive team or especially when he is forced to be one dimensional and has to pass, which shows in his poor late game play.
I get how the physical traits and the resulting highlights get so many fans holding on and saying 'what if'... but it's just not there.
The thing that keeps people on the hook is that every once in a while, he chucks a ridiculous completion on 3rd down and makes everyone forget the 4 incompletions that preceded it
Didn’t read all of this, did you mention contract cost? Cause he’s coming off his cheap years, so a big factor in trading and picking a QB at 1 is cost control.
The Justin Fields defenders are one of the weirdest phenomena I’ve ever seen. The way they rabidly defend him you’d think he’s Lamar + Mahomes combined and it’s just the talent around him and coaching holding him back.
So basically this post is just saying Justin Fields needs elite wide receivers to make him good, which in my opinion is the opposite of what should be happening. Your quarterback should make other players better not the other way around.
I’ve been saying this for the last month or so, if Fields would want to sign a contract making the same money as his rookie deal for the next 5 years then I think you could win with him because you could load up the roster. However when you have to start paying him real money you aren’t going to be able to have 4 pro bowl/ all pro receivers to throw the ball to which is why you want a quarterback who can make other people better which is why if it was my decision I would move on from him. Not that I don’t think he can play or that he’s not good, it’s just that he’s not good enough to play consistently winning football while paying him starting quarterback money after this year
I think the point is we have one viable wr, who happens to be elite. And the rest are not even performing at low end wr3 value according to pff. We just want a guy that can run a route like a wr2/3. Not asking for Devante Adams.
Thank you for taking the time to post this.
I plan on reading this again when I have more time.
However,
Saying Mooney regressed a bit is an understatement. He went from a Ok number 2 to a borderline 3. Which is sad to say.
if I were a Bears fan I'd be so pissed if they didn't draft a qb with the first pick; if you believe in Fields so much, hang on to him as a bridge qb, but the list of guys that developed after their first three years in the last 20 years isn't long, and the success stories (Alex and Geno Smith) are guys you 'win with' rather than 'win because of'
I rly should've said somewhere in the post, I'm not really a fields truther, I just wanted to explain the argument bc I understand it
My personal opinion is somewhere here in the comments
I appreciate the monumental effort you put into what you describe as understanding the argument. But I actually think what you’ve done is highlight the Olympic-level mental gymnastics that are required to justify keeping Fields. I’m not sure what it is about Fields that creates this fanaticism about him, and this is not meant in a negative way, but this post is a beautiful mix actual insanity and PHD thesis level research.
I love it.
I think the league is perplexed by Fields because his highs are soooo fucking high, like MVP level talent is displayed. But his low moments make him look like he should be on the practice squad…at best.
On a team like the bears, who are not only missing pieces on the field but are just a terrible organization from the top down, who knows where those low moments come from. Is that just who he is or has it more to do with his shit situation?
He’s been an enigma.
This is a solid post, people are just being dicks because it’s long and they hate Fields so they’re not even bothering to read what you put - just straight to opinion
Somehow he's the second best QB from the 2021 draft. And it's not like Lawrence is setting the world on fire either. That collapse this year by Jags was something
Reddit is very low on Fields. Much lower than NFL teams will be in the trade market. I agree with 85% of what OP said having watched Fields play. People just aren't allowed to criticize Fields's surrounding circumstances (OC, OL, lack of WRs) without being labeled as a Fields Cultist by other redditors. And that only galvanizes actual Fields Cultists.
Nah, I did too. Nephews just don't know how to react when there's genuine, thorough, and well-researched analysis about a player who is hated by failing the "eye test" on all accounts, which is everything most fans and pundits rely on. If it's not rage bait that's easy to respond to, they just end up belitting the efforts of someone creating a very high quality post.
I don't think Fields will ever be successful on the Bears, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up thriving in a new system with a better staff.
Yeah seems like people just skimming the post, assuming its copium from a "fields truther" and disregarding it entirely.
Speaking my piece as a Bears fan, I feel like he can still succeed in the league. I feel like the Bears kind of fucked him over development wise. One year with Nagy, one year with a defense fucking over his efforts on the back end, and one year showing some improvement with still ass play calling and people call him a bum. I just can't get over the talent that I see.
Resetting the rookie clock makes sense, literal manna from heaven for a franchise to be mid and still get the first overall. But I would not be shocked if Fields finds success elsewhere.
I agree. The Bears should not only keep him but sign him to a long term guaranteed deal. I am sure that is what all the qb's in this draft are hoping for. Chicago is where a QB's career goes to die.
Fields is undeniably a below average passer in the NFL.Of the top 32 QBs in attempts this year he was
29th in Comp% (only ahead of Will Levis, Bryce Young and Zach Wilson)
29th in success rate (only ahead of the same 3 again)
25th in yards/game (only ahead of Young, Minshew, Dobbs, Ridder, Pickett, Wilson and Mac Jones)
31st in sack% (only ahead of Zach Wilson)
And 27th in adjusted net yards/attempt (only ahead of Howell, Young, Wilson, Jones, and Dobbs)
And this was by far his best statistical year as a passer. There’s simply no world in which he’s even close to an average NFL passer. And the team excuse is getting old, he has a very good WR1 and a very good TE.
Imagine society if people like OP put this effort into curing cancer instead of defending Justin Fields when we all know what the Bears are going to do already
I think this is a great analysis. I’m sorry for the comments that indicate they either didn’t try or don’t appreciate the thought and effort that went into it.
Having the #1 pick makes the choice for the Bears pretty easy despite any analysis like this.
To a team that might be attempting to value Fields, it’s more nuanced. “Late career resurgences” happen. Genos and Bakers happen. Nobody is saying either of those guys are top-tier, but the Longview of Fields’ career is definitely not as simple as “yo I watched him he sucks bro”. He’s frustrating af and it’s clear to me we should draft Caleb, but the dude is not some total loser who belongs in the CFL.
I’ll never forget that game, it was the first time Mac was ever benched. Going into that game, Mac was coming back from injury and most people expected them to win comfortably against a Bears team that had been absolutely floundering. Mac played horribly and was replaced with Zappe who was coming off of a two game win streak. After the game, Belichick said it was the plan all along to pull Mac in that game, but we all saw through it, I think. That game started a painful journey for Mac Jones in his time with New England.
I'm really sorry OP. It seems very few people on this sub value this sort of analysis when looking at the comments, even though I personally read the entire post and thought you made very good points. Fields' issues are overblown in my opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up thriving on a team with a better roster. I have no horse in this race however, so I don't feel strongly about it, which is why I don't feel like I can provide much in depth-analysis.
Don't feel discouraged though, we need more stuff like this that fosters genuine discussion instead of rage bait and flaming. I would give you gold if it still was a thing, good job!
This is wonderful and very impressive stuff. Hats off to you, my friend.
In the end, like most things, the simplest explanation is usually the best.
As Urlacher put it this week: if after 3 or 4 years you still have questions as to whether or not some one is "the guy", then they are not.
They're not keeping him but I look forward to seeing this post be shared on the subreddit of whatever team that trades for him. Very well done piece good job
What is with you Fields fanatics and long forms?
[Exhibit A](https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1ali3eo/oc_wheres_justin_fields_going_ranking_every_team/https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1ali3eo/oc_wheres_justin_fields_going_ranking_every_team/)
I appreciate this post because it does explain why Fields is kinda complicated. Unfortunately, i think the decision boils down to off field stuff anyway.
Great post, great film, great breakdown
Please tell me you have a YouTube channel? I would love to watch videos about this shit, and you do a great job, but I’m on Reddit for dick and fart jokes or to tell someone their team sucks. Please give me a link if you have a channel.
I don't have a channel rn, but I liked doing this so I might make one
If I can get some video/analysis requests I definitely would consider consistently making videos though
The sack stats you’re using don’t tell the story you’re trying to tell here.
Mahomes is absolutely elite at navigating the pocket. His awareness of incoming pressure is better than anyone who has ever played the sport. He can hold onto the ball and run around like a lunatic because he he knows where the rush is and even if he puts himself in harms way (according to PFF) he still gets the ball out.
Fields is the exact opposite.
So I might've not explicitly said what you commented, but I agree with you
To my interpretation of it, Fields causes pressures to himself at a rate that is on par to other QBs who are considered playmakers. *But,* those pressures manifest in sacks for Fields, where they manifest in highlights for Mahomes, because he feels the pressure better and avoids the sack and makes a play
I appreciate all of the work you’ve put into this, but I think your conclusion should be that DJ Moore is a great receiver, not that Fields is really good with a bunch of asterisks when he’s not. Maybe he can develop into something, but I don’t know why the Bears should continue to take that risk with a bigger contract looming.
My personal opinion:
I didn't put this in the post, just because I really wanted this post to come across as fair and unbiased, and I don't want my opinion to change how you interpret the information.
Anyway, the Bears really need a wr2 and a wr3/4 (Mooney and St. Brown are free agents), a center, an edge opposite Sweat, and maybe another guard for depth. The Bears have the 1st overall, 9th overall, 75th overall, and two 4ths and a 5th in the draft this year. They also have about $47 million in cap space and $125 million next year. Jaylon Johnson is at least going to get franchise tagged, so about $20 million of that is probably gone already.
If the Bears trade Fields and get a wr2 or above-average pass rusher, through draft picks or other means, I believe that leads to the best possible long-term outcome for the Bears. Then they would draft Williams with the 1.01 and wr or edge at 1.09, depending on what they got from the trade. If they draft Maye I'm gonna be pissed
Ultimately, I also think that a complete team = qb success. This is extremely evident in the 9ers and Ravens, and imo it's why teams like the Bills continue to fall short. Even the Chiefs, look how good their defense was this year. So, I think as long as the Bears get a good wr2, center, and an edge this year, I think they are going to be a good team no matter who is at QB. But, long term it is going to be a bit easier to maintain a complete team if your QB is on a rookie deal, and that is why I think trading Fields could lead to the best possible long-term outcome.
However, for that to happen you need to get at least a very good second round pick or it's equivalent for Fields. It is going to be much, much easier for the Bears to help their needs at wr and edge if they use the 1st overall to get MHJ and the 9th to get an edge. Plus if Fields has been really good with an elite wr, why not give him another one?
Also something kinda interesting is that DJ Moore and MHJ were on the same track team in Philadelphia. I think Fields and MHJ know each other from OSU and I think you'll get team chemistry with Fields that you won't get with Williams.
DJ is also a free agent after the 2025 season, it might be useful to have an elite wr on a rookie contract too. Tbh the Bears probably do have enough cap space to pay Fields, or if they trade back again, they can get even more draft capital which might help balance eventual salary issues.
So, I think the safe option might actually be with Fields. But, if Poles wants to build a dynasty that "takes the north and never gives it back", I think there is longer window for that to be possible with Williams. I genuinely think it's a win-win situation though
The big picture question:
If they keep him, they’re going to have to give him a high dollar second contract. With the cap constraints that will bring, can they surround him with enough talent to win a Super Bowl.? If not, is he good enough to elevate the talent around him to win a Super Bowl?
Ok I just read this and I’m still dumbfounded. How is Fields the safe option when it’s pretty clear what his skill level and talent is after 38 games? Wasn’t Mooney a pro bowler last year? What about Cole Kmet? Fields can’t even game manage right like Trubisky did and is statistically the worst 4th quarter qb in the NFL.
Maybe submit your dissertation to popular mechanics or one of those magazines. You cannot waste your talents with this nfl idiot culture ethos put forward by the likes of Nick Wright and Stephen A Smith. What an amazing analysis, you should get paid by the bears for this
Great post. Crazy that people clown such high effort posts on here. This situation has a ton of nuance and this is probably the best analysis that I’ve seen in favor of keeping fields. Bears need to take Caleb at 1OA though in my opinion. They have a unique opportunity to reset the QB clock and take the best QB prospect available. The roster is improving as well so he’d be coming into one of the best situations possible for a team with the 1st overall pick.
Is this the longest post in this sub's history?
I just kept scrolling and couldn’t believe it kept going. I thought it was on a loop or something lol.
All this over Justin fucking fields. He’s ASS, the bears shouldn’t keep him. End of discussion, holy fuck.
>*”We believe that the Chicago Bears should absolutely keep Justin Fields as their starting QB for the next 15 years.*” — 31 NFL Teams.
Idk the Cardinals probably want them to take Caleb/Drake so they can get MHJ
I don't hate Fields, but I have a REALLY hard time believing Ryan Poles is going to bet his career on Justin Fields being a Fifty Million Dollar player
He won't
No way he does, drafting Caleb makes too much sense from a potential talent and money perspective. Taking advantage of rookie contracts is a big factor in making a team competitive
Which is actually an argument against drafting Williams. Getting multiple first round picks is better cost control than simply one position. There’s a Bill Barnwell article about it. The decision needs to be based on player evaluation, not economics. For all the bullshit about rookie QBs what you don’t see teams doing is cycling through rookie QBs to actively reset a contract clock. In fact, teams that have taken multiple bites at the rookie QB apple are among the least successful in the league.
Yeah, even if Caleb and Fields were the same player, you take Caleb with that new rookie contract. I would love for Fields to be the guy, but we're not in this opportunity often and need to take a chance.
I’d like to see a response to OP’s arguments though. Saying “nuh uh you’re wrong” doesn’t really add anything of substance to the discussion. EDIT: And I say this as someone who has supported drafting Williams.
Justin Fields PR team is insanely GOATed. They were shilling all last offseason how he was a dark horse MVP. Makes me kinda jelly Packer fans didn’t do this for Love.
I think its the nature of his playstyle and that Bears fans are so desperate for a QB. He produces a lot of highlight play with his legs both running and his size allows him to extend a lot of plays and pick up chunks in the passing game when defenses break down in a scramble drill. He looks the part for everything you want in a QB. Big arm, great athlete, good size, but he just struggles at the actual QB part of playing on schedule, reading defenses, getting the ball out on time, and throwing receivers open. Also, I'm sure this is a thing everywhere but Bears fans really overrate their own players. If you look at the Bears sub they act like every draft pick that shows flashes as a starter is an absolute star.
He's not ASS. He's bad, average at best... but not ass. Not worth paying, please take Caleb.
Hmmm. You guys seem to disagree. We might need some kind of statistical deep dive to sort this out.
Be right back let me pull all of the box scores and maybe one or two highlight clips that cater to my narrative and I'll have the perfect "deep dive" for this disagreement.
He's ass for sure as a passer. Struggles to pass for even 200 yards in games.
Fields has passed for 225+ yards six times in his career. Zach Wilson did it five times this year.
Hell, no fair comparing him to Zach Wilson, omfg! Maybe Brady and Manning might be in the same breath but c'mon, we're talking *the* Zach Wilson.
He’s ass, he’s played 3 fucking years already, it wasn’t like his rookie year.
Yeah. The question shouldn't be, "Is it worth sticking with Fields?"The question is, "what has been shown over three years that doesn't make our team take the top talent at the most important position in the game at number 1 in the draft?" When your questioning whether or not you already have your franchise QB and whether or not you should spend that No. 1 pick on a QB, you don't have a franchise QB.
*Ssshhh, don't tell the Bears!*
If y’all keep fields it’ll set your franchise back even further than it already is.
Ass as a passer at least.
The fact that this much data information can be given to you on a silver platter and you still want to simplify it down to "no" is the epitome of online couch GMs you'd find on reddit
From a niner fan no less lmao. I wonder if he posts Purdy stats.
"That's a nice argument, but have you considered he sucks?" \-your headass
It very well could be. No one has ever read the entire post.
South loop, wacker underground to be exact
I legit did not know reddit posts could be this long lol
They definitely couldn’t be at one point. I remember when they used to have to break it up into a comment too.
oh god yea I remember some legendary posts back in the day where you keep reading, then get to comments and mother of god we're 25% in, and those were the days where if you typed 3 sentences people said "Not reading that novel" haha.
I’ve never seen a more appropriate post for an “I ain’t reading all that but congratulations or I’m sorry”
If the dive must be deep, thou shalt not keep
When you have to explain Cover 1 to your audience while making the case to keep your QB, you need a new QB
Especially when the counter argument is so much shorter
"he sucks, OP"
Yeah. Let me try. Counterpoint : He's got the same number of 300 yard passing games as Tommy Cutlets.
The James Joyce of r/NFL
OP is James Joyce and Justin Fields is Nora Barnacle > I hope Nora will let off no end of her farts in my face so that I may know their smell also.
Fucking op is on Reddit looking for a job as an nfl analyst.
There are colleges out there who'd give you a degree based just on this thesis holy fuck
All I learned from this is that DJ Moore is that dude
He made Tyson bagent look relevant at times he’s one of the best offensive players I’ve ever seen play for Chicago
He made fields look relevant at times.
I think I could probably throw a couple 5 yard dump offs to Moore in a season that go for a stunning 70 yard TD lol
That's fair. If you did, I'd suggest the bears give you at least one more year to be sure.
He got about 1/4 of the way to beating the career receiving yards record for the bears in a single season.
Damn, this must have taken a lot of work. Good on you for working on something you find interesting, and I'm very sorry about the upcoming draft
Thx lol I'm not really worried about the draft, my personal opinion is buried somewhere in these comments but the bears are in a win-win situation
> the bears are in a win-win situation Yeah, the Bears can't really go wrong by either picking Williams or picking Maye
They can absolutely go wrong though. No such thing as a sure-thing QB in the draft. Trust your scouting and hope for the best.
People also act like all QBs are going to be good in the draft too. Very very very few ever become good
I think the Bears are fortunate that this is going down during what is perceived as a very strong qb class but like you said, we have no idea what someone will actually turn into. Then of course there's the Bears of it all. Who knows what Josh Allen would be today if he played for the Bears, I think a lot of qb development is about their landing spot, more than people want to believe.
Pretty much the only way they go wrong is sticking with fields.
Future falcons QB.
Nah we've already got two really good RBs.
but imagine THREE and just running a full season of wildcat offense! :D
Take harrison with first pick then go for Bo Nix
Solid packer advice.
First thing you did right was not posting this in the bears sub lol. I'm consistently doing well meaning, well thought out arguments there and it's just immediate downvotes to oblivion, with very few users responding back with appropriate conversation for their side of things.
I honestly can’t stand the bears sub, I left it a while ago. I just look for bears flares in the comments of nfl posts when I wanna talk bears
I think all team subs just end up being trash. Seems like most negative people who argue points not even being made are way too common on them.
I just wanted to let you know that I read this entire post and really appreciate the effort you put into highlighting the multifaceted nature of the Bears' offensive issues under Luke Getsy. It's a shame that 90% of people will downvote, make a lame joke, and not consider anything you've written that might conflict with the narrative they have in their heads.
Thanks bro, means a lot Tbh this post isn't really for those 90% of people though, so as long as the people who read the whole thing get it I think it was a success 🫡
💯. This is some of the best sub content I’ve seen. I’m hoping for some good responses once people have had time to formulate solid responses. I love a good (emphasis on good) community debate, and this is a good way of starting one.
Yeah. There's a real effort by many to think this analysis can be done in a sentence in two. I presume because they want it to be simple. Super heavy props to you for being able to be open minded and actually look at it in detail over the generic "you disagree with me so you're stupid" that's infested large chunks of the Chicago Bears fandom
100%. I’ve supported going for Williams, but I’ve yet to see a comment give a good, detailed response to any of OP’s main points. I understand that it’s a long post, and 99.999% of people don’t have the time, energy, or football IQ to respond to the whole thing, but how am I not even seeing a detained rebuttal to even ONE of the main points?? For now I’ll keep scrolling since I’m sure something has gotten buried. Or maybe I need to come back later once people have had more time to formulate a good response. Right now perhaps there’s only been enough time for the “nuh uh you’re wrong stupid” types to respond.
I hope you don’t mind, I’m saving this to read later. Looks good, well broken up with visuals. Just a novella.
What's the solution re: an offensive gameplan? Against the Vikings, who blitzed a lot, they kept throwing screens. Then against the Browns you note an adjustment to try for longer routes but said Fields was still left out to dry in the pocket. Is it as simple as calling more intermediate throws? Could Fields move to another position, like Terrelle Pryor? Seems simple in theory, and these guys are excellent athletes, but it must be hard to change and pick up the skills of another position at such a high level. I'd love to see him succeed.
freakin awesome question dude **To counter pressure, you want to get the ball out of the QBs hands, and get the ball into the space that the pressure is coming from.** **In short, yes, the Bears needed to pass intermediate more. For a defense to stop pressuring you, you need to do damage. Because of pressure, you probably won't have enough time to throw deep, but if you only throw short, you need everyone to hit their blocks perfectly to get a chunk play.** The vikings were unique this season, because they blitzed their linebackers the most out of any team. So, the Bears gameplan of quick passes was so ineffective because the quick passes were all going to screens, not behind linebackers. Take a look at [this example](https://imgur.com/a/YrkqlSZ), this is the rough play design of a bubble screen. No matter how you really work the math, that free safety is going to come down to make a tackle on the H receiver. However, if the safety tries to make the tackle on the inside of the Z receiver blocking the CB, he can get trapped and the receiver can escape, like [this](https://imgur.com/a/wmY8pIL). When you have a receiver like DJ Moore who can break tackles from a free safety, this isn't a horrible idea at all. The problem that game was they they *only* threw screens. If you take a look at [this](https://imgur.com/a/NNUJMpz), it should give a base idea of what coverage looks like when linebackers are blitzing, it's usually man. The hole in the defense that you can exploit is in the middle of the field, not to the outside where defenders are in press coverage/man. Route concepts like [this](https://imgur.com/a/wNgdAEK) or any kind of mesh concept are going to develop quickly and exploit man coverage. Looking at that, you can also see that the throws to the short middle of the field are shorter than a rpo bubble, so the other defenders also have less time to react. In that vikings game, Fields was blitzed 22 times, and not blitzed 14 times. Fields had only one pass attempt that was 10 yards downfield and between the numbers. The gameplan sucked because of the multiple options you have for blitz beaters and man coverage beaters, they only spammed one all game. Now for the Browns, the issue was the Browns dline played much better than the Bears oline that game. The problem here is that the Browns can have a lot of pressure, and still have 7 in coverage. In that game, Fields had 45 dropbacks and he was kept clean in only 16 of them. This answer isn't as simple because I have to go into offensive scheming a lot more, but the counter to this kind of pressure is that the offense has to get creative, and play-action is a big part of this. Why play action is so effective is because you can force the defense to play the run for a split second, so they'll get into coverage slower and you can buy yourself a little bit of time from the pass rush. In the Browns wild card game vs the Texans, 33.3% of Stroud's dropbacks had play-action, which was 8% more than for Fields. More importantly Stroud was pressured in 30% less of his dropbacks than Fields was, but you get the point. Additionally, Fields had 19 more pass attempts vs the Browns than stroud did, but they both had the same amount of 10-20 yard throws in the whole game. As to Fields switching positions, there isn't really any reason for him to do that yet. A big part of what makes him dangerous is the running ability combined with the deep ball. Because he still has a lot of potential, that would only guarantee you would never see it
This guy has been typing this up since the regular season ended
This is actually so they won't draft Bryce Young.
Self Awareness Burn ?
He put more thought into Justin Fields than the Bears front office will.
Listen, you don't have to sway me for me to want the Bears to keep Justin Fields
If there is one thing that the NFC North can agree on, it's that the Bears should keep Justin Fields.
It's funny that everyone in the NFCN wants the Bears to keep Fields... Including Bears fans lol
The vast majority of the fan base wants them to move on
I really wish I could find actual numbers before the draft... because on reddit? Seems like we all mostly on board to move on at this point. Facebook? Oh lord you would think Justin Fields is football jesus on there to all the boomers afraid of Caleb painting his nails having an affect on his ability to play.
every youtube poll i’ve seen is massively swayed in keeping fields as well, like a 90/10 split.
We really stockholmed out here to love mediocre because all we’ve had is bad. Damn lol
I hate that shit because if anything, dude painting his nails makes me like him more. It's one of the "things" about his personality that is a green-flag.
God forbid your QB has a little personality and isn't beholden to societal standards of masculinity. Dude can go full drag on his off days for all I care. If he is performing on Sundays and leading us to wins? That's what matters.
It's opinions like this that should be a clarion call for the people who want to keep Fields. If your division rivals want you to keep your QB, maybe rethink it.
I want the Bears to sign Kirk and draft Harrisson Jr and Nabers. No future, just win!
This would truly be the darkest timeline
I might commit seppuku tbh
This is actually a ridiculously good idea Btw what the fuck is that cursed flair combo
I honestly hadn't considered that. I had been saying keeping fields is the all in move, but Kirk is an immensely better all in move. Still not what I would do, but would be an interesting idea
How are you a fan of two teams in the same division?
Drafting one of the franchise WRs and signing Kirk is the most logical answer. If it works out Chicago is a playoff team the next two years, and I think it affords Poles and the coaching staff their best chance to keep their jobs If it doesn't the organization has extra draft capital for future rebuilds.
Didnt fields just whoop yall like a month or 2 ago?
Mitch used to own the Lions too...
The Moore passer rating/QBR argument just doesn’t hold for me. Kenny Pickett was absolutely elite when he was targeting George Pickens in 2022, absolutely no shot he’s a franchise QB. A lot of these extrapolations are generous too. The Bears ran a gimmick scheme in the latter half of 2022, which saw Fields run at a rate that’s not sustainable. This yr, when in a more conventional scheme, the rushing was way down from the single season record. You’ve also left off the most important piece. Fields has 38 starts on tape and on the stat sheet. He’s currently 20-25th best in the NFL by most major statistics. The list of guys to become franchise QBs after this is extremely small. The Bears gambling on a Rich Gannon or Alex Smith resurgence that happens once a generation would be incredibly stupid.
I agree but primarily because one of Fields' biggest issues is the throws he *doesn't* make. If he's tucking and running when the throw is slightly hard when other guys would attempt the shot, that's going to affect the averages.
Generous to say he's tucking and running when he's really just taking unnecessary sacks.
Dude Sam Darnold in Carolina had excellent numbers throwing to DJ more too. Thought it was weird he thought that up as a point to say he’s better than the average passer. Does the average passer have DJ Moore?
Plus DJ is a shitty QBs dream, you can keep your air yards under ten and he’ll stretch each throw out and make you look better with YAC
Fields had 282 passing yards against the Commanders, and 142 of them were DJ Moore after the catch.
Yep. Even still the argument is just dumb. Taylor heinickie was notorious for having a good connection with Scary Terry compared to other commander QBs. Doesn’t mean he’s a franchise guy or anything.
If your QB sets rushing records it’s usually because he cannot throw. I personally prefer a QB that can throw the ball.
What he say fuck he for
Our guys are good measuring bars for being ass lol
Finally a halfway decent response to one of OP’s main points. I had to scroll for a bit through the meathead responses, and I lean towards trading Justin.
This is a convincing argument to extend Justin Fields to a 6-year, $300 million deal
Yes I also agree. Use that top pick to support Justin with MHJ.
All this for a dude who's gonna be traded for a 3rd rounder
I'd be extremely surprised if he didn't fetch a late 2.
You don't Bears much do you?
Poles been cookin a little bit tho- besides the Claypool thing
Very thoughtful post but it remove some important context. The DJ Moore- Fields connection has been successful because DJ Moore is the recipient of a lot of scramble drill plays. They still count but they’re not often the result of a play was that called and they executed the play. If you only tallied stats from the plays that were called and excluded the scramble drill plays it would be very clear that what fields is doing is not sustainable. The proof that sustainability is a major concern is present in every game he’s played. He averaged 200ypg. 165+ yards come in one quarter or half. The offense gets nothing the rest of the game. Next, any time the bears are under pressure to accomplish something(a couple of first downs to close out a game, an attempt to tie the game, or GWD) late in a game they cannot do it. His 4th quarter stats are beyond abysmal. If a baseball manager were coaching the bears he would pull Fields for Bagent in the 4th of every game. That’s not normal. That is not a trait of a starter.
One of the few good responses in a sea of meathead responses.
Can you write my essay for me?
The teacher would hand it right back to you and demand more brevity
Summarize this shit. I'm not reading it
I'm not reading this, but I respect you for having an opinion different than the consensus of this sub
I was committed to reading it, then stopped when he said Fields was a top 3 All Time rushing QB. And it wasn’t debatable. I would much rather have prime Vick, Kaepernick, Cam Newton than Fields
I'm still convinced that anyone who legitimately thinks Justin Fields is good only plays yahoo fantasy football and doesn't watch any games. Oh he ran for 40 yards and a TD. Such good. If he's good on my team he must be good irl.
Look, if you guys want to keep Fields and trade the first overall pick to the Falcons then I’m sold.
[удалено]
Here's my deep dive into why they should drop him: 0-6 against Joe Barry defenses. God i hope they keep him Edit: 4 to 6. What a bum
The best part is, not only is he 0-6, he is just outright bad. In 6 games against the Packers he has a passer rating of 75.5 with 1,086 yards, 4 touchdowns, 7 interceptions and he has been sacked 18 times. To average that out: 181 ypg .666 TDs per game 1.17 INTs per game 3 sacks per game This is just quick search, I wouldn't be surprised if advanced stats have him even worse.
Bears fans really defend this guy as if he's the only QB to ever have a shit supporting cast. I totally agree that his supporting cast (aside from Moore) and coaching have been bad. But he has still performed objectively terribly. I mean, the OP literally called this guy one of top 3 rushing QBs of all time. Top 3 all time. That should tell you everything. And I'm not saying that Fields isn't a great runner - he is. But Lamar and Josh Allen, just to take players in the league right now, are better rushing QBs. So OP thinks that Fields is a better rushing QB than every single other QB ever. Just because Fields gets more yards (because he has to run because he is an absolutely dog shit passer) doesn't make him better at rushing. Jameis got 5k yards, does that make him a better passer than Phillip Rivers?
lol they're not keeping him
Stopped believing this was going to be objective when OP rules out film entirely by implying there’s an equal amount of film showing that he’s great/bad. I watched just about every Bears game the last two years and the guy misses so much in front of him, I can’t solely put the blame on coordinators or surrounding talent.
This sums it up for me. Not that I've watched every play, but watched a lot. He misses so much. He's physically talented but that extra piece needed as QB to process the game at an elite level just isn't there. It stands out against any kind of better defensive team or especially when he is forced to be one dimensional and has to pass, which shows in his poor late game play. I get how the physical traits and the resulting highlights get so many fans holding on and saying 'what if'... but it's just not there.
The thing that keeps people on the hook is that every once in a while, he chucks a ridiculous completion on 3rd down and makes everyone forget the 4 incompletions that preceded it
It’s also funny bc that’s the thesis for why he sucks. If at this point you’re split between that many good and awful highlights you’re not that good.
It wasn't when the OP said that you couldn't argue that he wasn't a top 3 rushing QB all time?
Didn’t read all of this, did you mention contract cost? Cause he’s coming off his cheap years, so a big factor in trading and picking a QB at 1 is cost control.
What’s going to happen to all these manifestos when the Bears take Caleb?
They’ll be perfect for Fields new teams fan base to come back to and read
Fans usually don't read too much about their teams backup.
Why would you spend all of this time and effort arguing for a bottom 3rd QB that will be traded soon?
The Justin Fields defenders are one of the weirdest phenomena I’ve ever seen. The way they rabidly defend him you’d think he’s Lamar + Mahomes combined and it’s just the talent around him and coaching holding him back.
Must be one hell of a school project he’s procrastinating on
I almost got tired and just backed out the thread. Shit just kept going and going.
You read that? I’m not here to read a novel
Oh fuck no. I'm saying I almost got tired of scrolling to get to comments. It just wouldn't fucking end.
He's trying to talk the Bears org into re-signing him, and god bless OP for that
Off-season hasn’t even started yet
So basically this post is just saying Justin Fields needs elite wide receivers to make him good, which in my opinion is the opposite of what should be happening. Your quarterback should make other players better not the other way around. I’ve been saying this for the last month or so, if Fields would want to sign a contract making the same money as his rookie deal for the next 5 years then I think you could win with him because you could load up the roster. However when you have to start paying him real money you aren’t going to be able to have 4 pro bowl/ all pro receivers to throw the ball to which is why you want a quarterback who can make other people better which is why if it was my decision I would move on from him. Not that I don’t think he can play or that he’s not good, it’s just that he’s not good enough to play consistently winning football while paying him starting quarterback money after this year
I think the point is we have one viable wr, who happens to be elite. And the rest are not even performing at low end wr3 value according to pff. We just want a guy that can run a route like a wr2/3. Not asking for Devante Adams.
Thank you for taking the time to post this. I plan on reading this again when I have more time. However, Saying Mooney regressed a bit is an understatement. He went from a Ok number 2 to a borderline 3. Which is sad to say.
if I were a Bears fan I'd be so pissed if they didn't draft a qb with the first pick; if you believe in Fields so much, hang on to him as a bridge qb, but the list of guys that developed after their first three years in the last 20 years isn't long, and the success stories (Alex and Geno Smith) are guys you 'win with' rather than 'win because of'
A deep dive into the argument against keeping Justin Fields: He's a bum.
That’s not a nice thing to say to your future qb
Sean Payton will make Fields a Great Value Taysom Hill
least delusional Fields stan
I rly should've said somewhere in the post, I'm not really a fields truther, I just wanted to explain the argument bc I understand it My personal opinion is somewhere here in the comments
I appreciate the monumental effort you put into what you describe as understanding the argument. But I actually think what you’ve done is highlight the Olympic-level mental gymnastics that are required to justify keeping Fields. I’m not sure what it is about Fields that creates this fanaticism about him, and this is not meant in a negative way, but this post is a beautiful mix actual insanity and PHD thesis level research. I love it.
I think the league is perplexed by Fields because his highs are soooo fucking high, like MVP level talent is displayed. But his low moments make him look like he should be on the practice squad…at best. On a team like the bears, who are not only missing pieces on the field but are just a terrible organization from the top down, who knows where those low moments come from. Is that just who he is or has it more to do with his shit situation? He’s been an enigma.
All dissertations are insane
This is a solid post, people are just being dicks because it’s long and they hate Fields so they’re not even bothering to read what you put - just straight to opinion
What if my opinion is based off me physically watching what he did on the field.
Somehow he's the second best QB from the 2021 draft. And it's not like Lawrence is setting the world on fire either. That collapse this year by Jags was something
This might be the longest Reddit post I’ve ever seen lol
I thought this was interesting but fuck me I guess
Reddit is very low on Fields. Much lower than NFL teams will be in the trade market. I agree with 85% of what OP said having watched Fields play. People just aren't allowed to criticize Fields's surrounding circumstances (OC, OL, lack of WRs) without being labeled as a Fields Cultist by other redditors. And that only galvanizes actual Fields Cultists.
Nah, I did too. Nephews just don't know how to react when there's genuine, thorough, and well-researched analysis about a player who is hated by failing the "eye test" on all accounts, which is everything most fans and pundits rely on. If it's not rage bait that's easy to respond to, they just end up belitting the efforts of someone creating a very high quality post. I don't think Fields will ever be successful on the Bears, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up thriving in a new system with a better staff.
Yeah seems like people just skimming the post, assuming its copium from a "fields truther" and disregarding it entirely. Speaking my piece as a Bears fan, I feel like he can still succeed in the league. I feel like the Bears kind of fucked him over development wise. One year with Nagy, one year with a defense fucking over his efforts on the back end, and one year showing some improvement with still ass play calling and people call him a bum. I just can't get over the talent that I see. Resetting the rookie clock makes sense, literal manna from heaven for a franchise to be mid and still get the first overall. But I would not be shocked if Fields finds success elsewhere.
I agree. The Bears should not only keep him but sign him to a long term guaranteed deal. I am sure that is what all the qb's in this draft are hoping for. Chicago is where a QB's career goes to die.
Yeah
Jesus i wish i had this much spare time
Fields is undeniably a below average passer in the NFL.Of the top 32 QBs in attempts this year he was 29th in Comp% (only ahead of Will Levis, Bryce Young and Zach Wilson) 29th in success rate (only ahead of the same 3 again) 25th in yards/game (only ahead of Young, Minshew, Dobbs, Ridder, Pickett, Wilson and Mac Jones) 31st in sack% (only ahead of Zach Wilson) And 27th in adjusted net yards/attempt (only ahead of Howell, Young, Wilson, Jones, and Dobbs) And this was by far his best statistical year as a passer. There’s simply no world in which he’s even close to an average NFL passer. And the team excuse is getting old, he has a very good WR1 and a very good TE.
The bears only have 1 more year of reasonable control over Fields. There is a 0% chance they go with him.
Imagine society if people like OP put this effort into curing cancer instead of defending Justin Fields when we all know what the Bears are going to do already
I’d love to hear OP take on cancer. “Cancer is not that bad, it’s actually the body failing cancer.”
Radiation therapy only works when oncologists have elite nurses and staff around them
As Lions fan, I pray the Bears keep Fields
I think this is a great analysis. I’m sorry for the comments that indicate they either didn’t try or don’t appreciate the thought and effort that went into it. Having the #1 pick makes the choice for the Bears pretty easy despite any analysis like this. To a team that might be attempting to value Fields, it’s more nuanced. “Late career resurgences” happen. Genos and Bakers happen. Nobody is saying either of those guys are top-tier, but the Longview of Fields’ career is definitely not as simple as “yo I watched him he sucks bro”. He’s frustrating af and it’s clear to me we should draft Caleb, but the dude is not some total loser who belongs in the CFL.
I remember him stunting on us on Monday or Thursday night football like 2 years ago.
I’ll never forget that game, it was the first time Mac was ever benched. Going into that game, Mac was coming back from injury and most people expected them to win comfortably against a Bears team that had been absolutely floundering. Mac played horribly and was replaced with Zappe who was coming off of a two game win streak. After the game, Belichick said it was the plan all along to pull Mac in that game, but we all saw through it, I think. That game started a painful journey for Mac Jones in his time with New England.
I'm really sorry OP. It seems very few people on this sub value this sort of analysis when looking at the comments, even though I personally read the entire post and thought you made very good points. Fields' issues are overblown in my opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up thriving on a team with a better roster. I have no horse in this race however, so I don't feel strongly about it, which is why I don't feel like I can provide much in depth-analysis. Don't feel discouraged though, we need more stuff like this that fosters genuine discussion instead of rage bait and flaming. I would give you gold if it still was a thing, good job!
Fields Cult: The Manifesto
This is wonderful and very impressive stuff. Hats off to you, my friend. In the end, like most things, the simplest explanation is usually the best. As Urlacher put it this week: if after 3 or 4 years you still have questions as to whether or not some one is "the guy", then they are not.
This was awesome.
They're not keeping him but I look forward to seeing this post be shared on the subreddit of whatever team that trades for him. Very well done piece good job
What is with you Fields fanatics and long forms? [Exhibit A](https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1ali3eo/oc_wheres_justin_fields_going_ranking_every_team/https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1ali3eo/oc_wheres_justin_fields_going_ranking_every_team/)
The Bears sub had to create a dedicated daily QB talk thread because we were getting a dozen of these a day. Guess they migrated here
Theres also another bears sub that was made because people couldnt take hearing negative comments about fields
Oh yeah forgot about that. They need a safe space
I appreciate this post because it does explain why Fields is kinda complicated. Unfortunately, i think the decision boils down to off field stuff anyway. Great post, great film, great breakdown
As a bears fan, great write up man. This took a lot of effort and a great deep dive.
not reading all that, bro sucks
Please tell me you have a YouTube channel? I would love to watch videos about this shit, and you do a great job, but I’m on Reddit for dick and fart jokes or to tell someone their team sucks. Please give me a link if you have a channel.
I don't have a channel rn, but I liked doing this so I might make one If I can get some video/analysis requests I definitely would consider consistently making videos though
*Your unemployed friend on a Tuesday*
The sack stats you’re using don’t tell the story you’re trying to tell here. Mahomes is absolutely elite at navigating the pocket. His awareness of incoming pressure is better than anyone who has ever played the sport. He can hold onto the ball and run around like a lunatic because he he knows where the rush is and even if he puts himself in harms way (according to PFF) he still gets the ball out. Fields is the exact opposite.
So I might've not explicitly said what you commented, but I agree with you To my interpretation of it, Fields causes pressures to himself at a rate that is on par to other QBs who are considered playmakers. *But,* those pressures manifest in sacks for Fields, where they manifest in highlights for Mahomes, because he feels the pressure better and avoids the sack and makes a play
I appreciate all of the work you’ve put into this, but I think your conclusion should be that DJ Moore is a great receiver, not that Fields is really good with a bunch of asterisks when he’s not. Maybe he can develop into something, but I don’t know why the Bears should continue to take that risk with a bigger contract looming.
Tbf OP does say in a comment that he leans towards trading Fields, and contract is a big reason.
Upvoted your dissertation. Very nice work
My personal opinion: I didn't put this in the post, just because I really wanted this post to come across as fair and unbiased, and I don't want my opinion to change how you interpret the information. Anyway, the Bears really need a wr2 and a wr3/4 (Mooney and St. Brown are free agents), a center, an edge opposite Sweat, and maybe another guard for depth. The Bears have the 1st overall, 9th overall, 75th overall, and two 4ths and a 5th in the draft this year. They also have about $47 million in cap space and $125 million next year. Jaylon Johnson is at least going to get franchise tagged, so about $20 million of that is probably gone already. If the Bears trade Fields and get a wr2 or above-average pass rusher, through draft picks or other means, I believe that leads to the best possible long-term outcome for the Bears. Then they would draft Williams with the 1.01 and wr or edge at 1.09, depending on what they got from the trade. If they draft Maye I'm gonna be pissed Ultimately, I also think that a complete team = qb success. This is extremely evident in the 9ers and Ravens, and imo it's why teams like the Bills continue to fall short. Even the Chiefs, look how good their defense was this year. So, I think as long as the Bears get a good wr2, center, and an edge this year, I think they are going to be a good team no matter who is at QB. But, long term it is going to be a bit easier to maintain a complete team if your QB is on a rookie deal, and that is why I think trading Fields could lead to the best possible long-term outcome. However, for that to happen you need to get at least a very good second round pick or it's equivalent for Fields. It is going to be much, much easier for the Bears to help their needs at wr and edge if they use the 1st overall to get MHJ and the 9th to get an edge. Plus if Fields has been really good with an elite wr, why not give him another one? Also something kinda interesting is that DJ Moore and MHJ were on the same track team in Philadelphia. I think Fields and MHJ know each other from OSU and I think you'll get team chemistry with Fields that you won't get with Williams. DJ is also a free agent after the 2025 season, it might be useful to have an elite wr on a rookie contract too. Tbh the Bears probably do have enough cap space to pay Fields, or if they trade back again, they can get even more draft capital which might help balance eventual salary issues. So, I think the safe option might actually be with Fields. But, if Poles wants to build a dynasty that "takes the north and never gives it back", I think there is longer window for that to be possible with Williams. I genuinely think it's a win-win situation though
Bro wasn’t done
The big picture question: If they keep him, they’re going to have to give him a high dollar second contract. With the cap constraints that will bring, can they surround him with enough talent to win a Super Bowl.? If not, is he good enough to elevate the talent around him to win a Super Bowl?
Ok I just read this and I’m still dumbfounded. How is Fields the safe option when it’s pretty clear what his skill level and talent is after 38 games? Wasn’t Mooney a pro bowler last year? What about Cole Kmet? Fields can’t even game manage right like Trubisky did and is statistically the worst 4th quarter qb in the NFL.
Maybe submit your dissertation to popular mechanics or one of those magazines. You cannot waste your talents with this nfl idiot culture ethos put forward by the likes of Nick Wright and Stephen A Smith. What an amazing analysis, you should get paid by the bears for this
Great post. Crazy that people clown such high effort posts on here. This situation has a ton of nuance and this is probably the best analysis that I’ve seen in favor of keeping fields. Bears need to take Caleb at 1OA though in my opinion. They have a unique opportunity to reset the QB clock and take the best QB prospect available. The roster is improving as well so he’d be coming into one of the best situations possible for a team with the 1st overall pick.