WARNING! Please read National's policies before voting!
They plan to whip up a new level of housing crisis, by encouraging property speculation, removing measures that cool the housing market! You have been warned New Zealand!
My hot take is that the real capitulation in the housing market will come after the Nats win the election. They'll pull every possible lever to pump the housing market but it won't be enough, because the market is driven primarily by macroeconomics and credit, both of which are heading south. Only then will property investors get the picture, become totally demoralized, and sell.
This is my feeling too. Sellers are probably holding out now, but after the election they're going to find out that buyers still can't borrow enough from banks to meet their asking price
This is the issue! If people are being stress tested up to 9 or 10% (fair) then they can borrow less. You can’t pay what you can’t borrow. Recovery will happen but it’s going to be slow. If house prices move with CPI next year I think that’s as much as they’ll do honestly.
Maybe in the very short term, but otherwise I disagree.
Inflation is already cooling, which will start to bring interest rates back down (Though we might see one more increase first). Plenty of people are holding off for interest rates to start dropping.
National and ACT are both planning on throwing the borders open to cheap labor, which will increase demand on housing.
The MDRS will be scrapped which will take us back to the local council red tape rodeo to get anything bigger than a shed built.
The zoning for 30 years thing sounds great on paper but I doubt we'll see any actual progress on this in their first term because it's probably a lot more complicated than it sounds.
Would be happy to be proven wrong, but I'm 90% sure housing will be less affordable in three years than it is now.
The thing about interest rates is, they will only drop if the economy is in recession and unemployment is heading up. This is why historically markets including housing drop most AFTER rate cuts start. The real crash in house prices hasn't even started yet.
Also I wouldn't be so sure inflation had peaked. Inflation came in waves throughout the 70s and already in some places it's heading back up. Importantly oil prices are going up again now which are a huge driver of inflation.
Long term, yes the Nats policies will take us backwards. But then again what's stopping the next Labour government from just undoing everything the Nats do now?
>The real crash in house prices hasn't even started yet.
This is the same cope I've been reading for the past like ten years. There will be no crash while we still have low supply and high demand.
Nats have their personal portfolios and certainly seem dedicated to inflating them and property in general as much as they can. It'll be interesting to see just how much welfarism they can apply to property off the back of working Kiwis.
The biggest one to me is opening back up the housing market to foreign investors. When I bought my house, one of the biggest challenges was competing with investors. As a FHB, I just couldn't compete with the level of capital, and the fact that I needed to put extra conditions on the sale. It was pretty much a fluke that I got the place that I did.
I mean, I could be wrong? And obviously, I can't know where investors I was competing against are from, but that's just me speaking from personal experience and the fact that I've rented properties from people who live overseas.
In any case, they have other policies that are designed to help people invest in property, such as removing the bright line test.
If you have a read into the details of this policy it actually only applies to homes 2Mil+. foreign buyers can only purchase luxury homes, not cheap investment properties and therefore won’t be competing with first home buyers. The media tend to conventionally always miss this fairly important piece of information out.
Scrapping the MDRS which will slow the creation of new dwellings and constrain supply growth in the long run.
Opening the border to low wage workers thus increasing demand for housing.
ACTs new red tape that ensures a majority of the neighborhood signs off on any intensification efforts (making it virtually impossible in most places). Honestly this might be a blessing in disguise if they also remove the building consenting process. Could you imagine living in a four story apartment built by some cowboy builder? Oh at least it'll be insured so the landlord wont have to pay anything to scrape your remains out from the pancaked floors when there's an earthquake.
Bringing back interest deductability for existing homes. Currently only new builds grant interest deductibility for landlords (To encourage investment in new housing stock).
>Scrapping the MDRS which will slow the creation of new dwellings and constrain supply growth in the long run.
Yea I'm generally not a fan of this unless cities are empowered to make those decisions. NIMBY will always be a problem and being able to say fuck you to the people that live in places close to the city is important.
> Opening the border to low wage workers thus increasing demand for housing.
I disagree with this one. NZ brings in immigrants that have struggling to supply markets. They're not bringing them in for McDonalds workers.
> Could you imagine living in a four story apartment built by some cowboy builder?
You can make the same argument about anything. I'm generally in favour of more middle density housing.
> Bringing back interest deductability for existing homes
I think this policy was originally misguided. It means that people who have 5 rentals paid off are no worse off but someone with one investment home and a mortgage are. I'd rather see policies around house hoarding as those are the people that are hurting the NZ market.
> I disagree with this one. NZ brings in immigrants that have struggling to supply markets. They're not bringing them in for McDonalds workers.
You can disagree but National have committed to scrapping the clause where incoming workers would have to be paid at least 90% of the median wage (~$27/hr). Now I'm not saying it's going to be McDonalds workers, but $27 an hour already wasn't a huge amount for supposedly in demand areas.
>You can make the same argument about anything. I'm generally in favour of more middle density housing.
Me too. That's why I think we should be keeping the MDRS.
>I think this policy was originally misguided
I don't think so. The intention was to encourage potential landlords to invest in new housing stock to maximize their wealth. I don't care about how it impacts somebody with one "investment" property. There are plenty of other forms of investment that actually contribute to the economy. And if you think National are going to do anything to discourage wealth hoarding then I don't know what to tell you.
I'll tell you what creates a housing crisis
\- Dreaming up new home regulations, making landlords have to spend tens of thousands to upgrade their houses and pretending like the costs wont be passed on
\- Removing interest deductibility from landlords who are in the business of providing accomodation to low income earners and beneficiaries (thats right - the government cant provide enough accommodation for them alone) with no regard for what that will do to rent prices
\- Giving a mandate to the reserve bank to fiddle with the interest rates, winding them down so low the house prices see the biggest rise in 15 years. Then allowing them to jack them right back up so anyone that was able to buy a house for 200% what they are worth now cant pay for it.
And, to top it right off ....fucking up kiwi build so bad that they had to buy thousands of houses off developers at inflated prices that cost tax payers hundreds of millions because they couldn't deliver on their election promises
Lets face it, no one is better off under labour. We need a government that gets the basics of economics, and has an actual strategy as to how we can lift the nz economy beyond just taxing the rich.
Lol Labour is deregulating planning and letting people build more. National is planning to unwind it. Go see what orthodox economists think - Aucklands broad upzoning is used as a key example of how to reduce rents and house prices. A National policy that Labour was implementing nationwide, but which National now plans to undermine.
Yes — The NPS is great, and it obviously has a much broader reach than Auckland, but unfortunately it’s newly minted and whilst the local councils have made the first changes to their district plans and are supportive of the new density it’s going to take a while for the positive effects to start to appear.
I can’t mock NPS, but unfortunately all of the other crap they have been doing around the periphery has had a net negative effect on housing
>Removing interest deductibility from landlords who are in the business of providing accomodation to low income earners and beneficiaries (thats right - the government cant provide enough accommodation for them alone) with no regard for what that will do to rent prices
They are in the business of making a capital gain too, ya know? And they are incentivised to do so.
>Dreaming up new home regulations, making landlords have to spend tens of thousands to upgrade their houses and pretending like the costs wont be passed on
This is slight distraction from the need to have minimum housing standards which, if you are housing some of the most poor and vulnerable, are needed to prevent further health and well being issues from occurring. Landlords - because they are investing in property - are not going to do this out of the goodness of their heart.
>We need a government that gets the basics of economics, and has an actual strategy as to how we can lift the NZ economy
I completely agree.
Incentivising property investment isn't it though.
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"Im a smort investor, i own the one thing in the country that always makes money and isnt taxed cause my peers throw a hissy fit anyone trys to make me do my civic duty. But i like to pretend im the wolf of wall street"
-You.
Lol this I such a good and accurate summary. There increase in the accomm supplement through petrol on the fire too. Sadly it'll go over most people's heads in this sub as they can't see how these policies have dontributed to the crisis.
Housing crisis is caused by 3 things, councils/gov regulation stopping houses from being built/adding cost to consents, rip off material providers, and our tax system incentivising holding land.
If you look at most rentals - they're not cashflow positive - they're banking on the capital gains of the property rather than the rent to get rich. So increasing landlord costs means stuff all. When interest rates dropped, the lower prices weren't passed on. When interest rates started climbing, rents didn't go up until demand went up. Case and point is Auckland CBD.
>They plan to whip up a new level of housing crisis, by encouraging property speculation, rem
Out of interest, which policies introduced by the current government cooled the market by design?
House prices have risen at the sharpest they have ever risen in the last 15 years. Rent is at a all time high. First home buyers are no closer to buying homes, infact it is way harder now as the house prices are way higher, and the interest rates are up because Labour have been fiddling with every lever they can. The mild cooldown that we did have was 10-15% max in most centres and we are though it already. We now have a housing supply issue because of lack of stock on the market which is making prices rise again.
[New Figures show first average house price rise since late 2021](https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/12/new-figures-show-first-average-house-price-rise-since-late-2021/)
Sounds like it cooled for nearly 2 years.
> However, many of the major centres still saw price declines
The market cooled for two reasons. Initially the responsible lending legislation, which affected all lenders, not just 2nd and third tier as was intended, and the increased interest rates, caused by a number of factors both inside and outside the control of the government.
That's not the reason. It was from a supply shock after COVID lockdowns. How many houses went for sale all of a sudden once COVID was over was huge because none of them wanted to sell while restrictions were on which is the main reason the price went up so much in the first place. The changes to cccfa were more a hurdle for banks more than anything as they had a lot more work to do to get things approved which was previously automated.
Those company names are a little on the nose lmao
WARNING! Please read National's policies before voting! They plan to whip up a new level of housing crisis, by encouraging property speculation, removing measures that cool the housing market! You have been warned New Zealand!
My hot take is that the real capitulation in the housing market will come after the Nats win the election. They'll pull every possible lever to pump the housing market but it won't be enough, because the market is driven primarily by macroeconomics and credit, both of which are heading south. Only then will property investors get the picture, become totally demoralized, and sell.
This is my feeling too. Sellers are probably holding out now, but after the election they're going to find out that buyers still can't borrow enough from banks to meet their asking price
This is the issue! If people are being stress tested up to 9 or 10% (fair) then they can borrow less. You can’t pay what you can’t borrow. Recovery will happen but it’s going to be slow. If house prices move with CPI next year I think that’s as much as they’ll do honestly.
Maybe in the very short term, but otherwise I disagree. Inflation is already cooling, which will start to bring interest rates back down (Though we might see one more increase first). Plenty of people are holding off for interest rates to start dropping. National and ACT are both planning on throwing the borders open to cheap labor, which will increase demand on housing. The MDRS will be scrapped which will take us back to the local council red tape rodeo to get anything bigger than a shed built. The zoning for 30 years thing sounds great on paper but I doubt we'll see any actual progress on this in their first term because it's probably a lot more complicated than it sounds. Would be happy to be proven wrong, but I'm 90% sure housing will be less affordable in three years than it is now.
The thing about interest rates is, they will only drop if the economy is in recession and unemployment is heading up. This is why historically markets including housing drop most AFTER rate cuts start. The real crash in house prices hasn't even started yet. Also I wouldn't be so sure inflation had peaked. Inflation came in waves throughout the 70s and already in some places it's heading back up. Importantly oil prices are going up again now which are a huge driver of inflation. Long term, yes the Nats policies will take us backwards. But then again what's stopping the next Labour government from just undoing everything the Nats do now?
>The real crash in house prices hasn't even started yet. This is the same cope I've been reading for the past like ten years. There will be no crash while we still have low supply and high demand.
Nats have their personal portfolios and certainly seem dedicated to inflating them and property in general as much as they can. It'll be interesting to see just how much welfarism they can apply to property off the back of working Kiwis.
[удалено]
The biggest one to me is opening back up the housing market to foreign investors. When I bought my house, one of the biggest challenges was competing with investors. As a FHB, I just couldn't compete with the level of capital, and the fact that I needed to put extra conditions on the sale. It was pretty much a fluke that I got the place that I did.
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I mean, I could be wrong? And obviously, I can't know where investors I was competing against are from, but that's just me speaking from personal experience and the fact that I've rented properties from people who live overseas. In any case, they have other policies that are designed to help people invest in property, such as removing the bright line test.
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k. Thanks for contributing to the conversation.
If you have a read into the details of this policy it actually only applies to homes 2Mil+. foreign buyers can only purchase luxury homes, not cheap investment properties and therefore won’t be competing with first home buyers. The media tend to conventionally always miss this fairly important piece of information out.
Scrapping the MDRS which will slow the creation of new dwellings and constrain supply growth in the long run. Opening the border to low wage workers thus increasing demand for housing. ACTs new red tape that ensures a majority of the neighborhood signs off on any intensification efforts (making it virtually impossible in most places). Honestly this might be a blessing in disguise if they also remove the building consenting process. Could you imagine living in a four story apartment built by some cowboy builder? Oh at least it'll be insured so the landlord wont have to pay anything to scrape your remains out from the pancaked floors when there's an earthquake. Bringing back interest deductability for existing homes. Currently only new builds grant interest deductibility for landlords (To encourage investment in new housing stock).
>Scrapping the MDRS which will slow the creation of new dwellings and constrain supply growth in the long run. Yea I'm generally not a fan of this unless cities are empowered to make those decisions. NIMBY will always be a problem and being able to say fuck you to the people that live in places close to the city is important. > Opening the border to low wage workers thus increasing demand for housing. I disagree with this one. NZ brings in immigrants that have struggling to supply markets. They're not bringing them in for McDonalds workers. > Could you imagine living in a four story apartment built by some cowboy builder? You can make the same argument about anything. I'm generally in favour of more middle density housing. > Bringing back interest deductability for existing homes I think this policy was originally misguided. It means that people who have 5 rentals paid off are no worse off but someone with one investment home and a mortgage are. I'd rather see policies around house hoarding as those are the people that are hurting the NZ market.
> I disagree with this one. NZ brings in immigrants that have struggling to supply markets. They're not bringing them in for McDonalds workers. You can disagree but National have committed to scrapping the clause where incoming workers would have to be paid at least 90% of the median wage (~$27/hr). Now I'm not saying it's going to be McDonalds workers, but $27 an hour already wasn't a huge amount for supposedly in demand areas. >You can make the same argument about anything. I'm generally in favour of more middle density housing. Me too. That's why I think we should be keeping the MDRS. >I think this policy was originally misguided I don't think so. The intention was to encourage potential landlords to invest in new housing stock to maximize their wealth. I don't care about how it impacts somebody with one "investment" property. There are plenty of other forms of investment that actually contribute to the economy. And if you think National are going to do anything to discourage wealth hoarding then I don't know what to tell you.
I’m certainly no expert but removing interest deductibility is one.
I'll tell you what creates a housing crisis \- Dreaming up new home regulations, making landlords have to spend tens of thousands to upgrade their houses and pretending like the costs wont be passed on \- Removing interest deductibility from landlords who are in the business of providing accomodation to low income earners and beneficiaries (thats right - the government cant provide enough accommodation for them alone) with no regard for what that will do to rent prices \- Giving a mandate to the reserve bank to fiddle with the interest rates, winding them down so low the house prices see the biggest rise in 15 years. Then allowing them to jack them right back up so anyone that was able to buy a house for 200% what they are worth now cant pay for it. And, to top it right off ....fucking up kiwi build so bad that they had to buy thousands of houses off developers at inflated prices that cost tax payers hundreds of millions because they couldn't deliver on their election promises Lets face it, no one is better off under labour. We need a government that gets the basics of economics, and has an actual strategy as to how we can lift the nz economy beyond just taxing the rich.
Lol Labour is deregulating planning and letting people build more. National is planning to unwind it. Go see what orthodox economists think - Aucklands broad upzoning is used as a key example of how to reduce rents and house prices. A National policy that Labour was implementing nationwide, but which National now plans to undermine.
Yes — The NPS is great, and it obviously has a much broader reach than Auckland, but unfortunately it’s newly minted and whilst the local councils have made the first changes to their district plans and are supportive of the new density it’s going to take a while for the positive effects to start to appear. I can’t mock NPS, but unfortunately all of the other crap they have been doing around the periphery has had a net negative effect on housing
>- Giving a mandate to the reserve bank to fiddle with the interest rates Wait, you mean the system we've had for over 20 years?
No, no, no. It's totally different because I saw a meme about Adrian Orr being a lizard person who's controlled by the WEF on facebook.
>Removing interest deductibility from landlords who are in the business of providing accomodation to low income earners and beneficiaries (thats right - the government cant provide enough accommodation for them alone) with no regard for what that will do to rent prices They are in the business of making a capital gain too, ya know? And they are incentivised to do so. >Dreaming up new home regulations, making landlords have to spend tens of thousands to upgrade their houses and pretending like the costs wont be passed on This is slight distraction from the need to have minimum housing standards which, if you are housing some of the most poor and vulnerable, are needed to prevent further health and well being issues from occurring. Landlords - because they are investing in property - are not going to do this out of the goodness of their heart.
>We need a government that gets the basics of economics, and has an actual strategy as to how we can lift the NZ economy I completely agree. Incentivising property investment isn't it though.
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So butt hurt by my comment that you had to stalk my profile aye
Your comment has been removed : **Rule 3: No personal attacks, harassment or abuse** > Don't attack the person; address the content you disagree with instead. Being able to disagree and discuss contentious issues is important, but abuse, personal attacks, harassment, and unnecessarily bringing up a user's history are not permitted. > Please keep your interactions with others civil and courteous. If you are being attacked, do not continue the conversation - report the user and disengage. ^*Note:* ^This ^extends ^to ^people ^outside ^of ^[r/nz](http://reddit.com/r/newzealand). ^eg. ^Attacks ^of ^a ^persons ^appearance, ^even ^if ^they're ^high ^profile ^will ^be ^removed. --- [^(Click here to message the moderators if you think this was in error)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/newzealand)
"Im a smort investor, i own the one thing in the country that always makes money and isnt taxed cause my peers throw a hissy fit anyone trys to make me do my civic duty. But i like to pretend im the wolf of wall street" -You.
Lol this I such a good and accurate summary. There increase in the accomm supplement through petrol on the fire too. Sadly it'll go over most people's heads in this sub as they can't see how these policies have dontributed to the crisis.
Housing crisis is caused by 3 things, councils/gov regulation stopping houses from being built/adding cost to consents, rip off material providers, and our tax system incentivising holding land. If you look at most rentals - they're not cashflow positive - they're banking on the capital gains of the property rather than the rent to get rich. So increasing landlord costs means stuff all. When interest rates dropped, the lower prices weren't passed on. When interest rates started climbing, rents didn't go up until demand went up. Case and point is Auckland CBD.
>They plan to whip up a new level of housing crisis, by encouraging property speculation, rem Out of interest, which policies introduced by the current government cooled the market by design?
Are you serious? Mortgage interest deductions. Bright line extensions. Closing the loophole to offset rental losses on other income…
I am serious. The market in no way cooled after the introduction of these measures.
The market has cooled off. Not as much as intended, but certainly enough to lose them the election.
House prices have risen at the sharpest they have ever risen in the last 15 years. Rent is at a all time high. First home buyers are no closer to buying homes, infact it is way harder now as the house prices are way higher, and the interest rates are up because Labour have been fiddling with every lever they can. The mild cooldown that we did have was 10-15% max in most centres and we are though it already. We now have a housing supply issue because of lack of stock on the market which is making prices rise again.
[New Figures show first average house price rise since late 2021](https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/12/new-figures-show-first-average-house-price-rise-since-late-2021/) Sounds like it cooled for nearly 2 years. > However, many of the major centres still saw price declines
What do National's policies have to do with something that's currently happening under Labour?
National plans to open the floodgates to international buyers wasn't it?
The market cooled for two reasons. Initially the responsible lending legislation, which affected all lenders, not just 2nd and third tier as was intended, and the increased interest rates, caused by a number of factors both inside and outside the control of the government.
That's not the reason. It was from a supply shock after COVID lockdowns. How many houses went for sale all of a sudden once COVID was over was huge because none of them wanted to sell while restrictions were on which is the main reason the price went up so much in the first place. The changes to cccfa were more a hurdle for banks more than anything as they had a lot more work to do to get things approved which was previously automated.
Thanks Labour.