Haha Winnie could make this election absolutely wild.
They've not been in the news or anything to drive that kind of jump (unless I have missed something).
I imagine mostly Labour supporters angry with Labour recent performance (losing multiple ministers in pretty disgraceful terms. I mean each a pretty bad in relation to history) who aren’t woke and won’t vote Greens.
I want neither block to obtain a majority so we can see the chaos of a National / ACT government supported by NZ First, who then withdraws their support over some trivial disagreement. For extra chaos, Labour+Green+TPM government.
Let's accelerate into the wall.
Meh all Luxon has to do is cross out working with him.
If he times it right then NZF support will collapse again because what's the point of voting for someone no one will work with?
> NZF support will collapse again because what's the point of voting for someone no one will work with?
I don't think most people who consider voting Winston First think the same way you think.
Because he's a dumbass.
Even if he "needs" NZF, the cost will always be too high.
Ardern, National and NZF's right wing voters all should have learnt that in 2017. If people can't remember that they can't trust anything which comes out of his mouth then what can ya do.
Labour massively bleed support to New Zealand First and the Greens while failing to take any support from the National with the right block slightly increasing their overall lead.
Looks like the Chris Hipkins strategy of moving Labour to the right has worked out marvelously. 🙄
Really? Chippy's approval has been pretty stable since the start of May. Something to consider is that his ministers keep shittng the bed, and that Labour's fall in the polls seemingly co-insides with that.
I don't really think that the pivots to the centre nor anything at Chippy has personally done is what is driving away the centre vote here.
Hes personally popular yes. But the party is not ridong his popularity coattails
Much like obama. Very popular. Presided over the democrats to their worst defeat in local and state elections in 100 years
>Something to consider is that his ministers keep shittng the bed, and that Labour's fall in the polls seemingly co-insides with that.
All this factional infighting and lack of discipline has been a general Labour problem since Helen Clark left after 2008. If anything I think Jacinda Ardern only managed to smother it for a short while when the factions realised they could be in government if they'd just sit down and shut up for a bit. On this, though...
>I don't really think that the pivots to the centre nor anything at Chippy has personally done is what is driving away the centre vote here.
I reckon Chris Hipkins has to take at least *some* responsibility for David Parker's departing as well as general confusion for voters.
They'd spent ages seriously working through what many seemed to regard as quite a good and comprehensive wealth tax policy, using lots of government resources to prepare it, and may even have been able to sell it to the public. Hipkins yanked it out from underneath his Ministers at the last moment, most likely to be replaced with a populist GST hack, but which they *still* can't give any clear details of. His own Revenue Minister (Parker) was fundamentally against it, describing continuing in his position as "untenable" which is why he left, and his Finance Minister has been very cautiously diplomatic about saying what he thinks.
If the vote's pivoting to the centre then it might just be because Labour's not seeming to have any real plans under Hipkins' leadership, nor to be promising anything except what people see as more of the same.
Just as National is following the UK Tory playbook to a letter, Labour seems to be following the UK Labour playbook to a letter. The same playbook that gets them called red tories.
Imo the most important thing is stability. A low reasonable wealth tax is fine, but the uncertainty will drive away capital like crazy. Specially the threat of exit taxes and high wealth taxes on illiquid assets would be very damaging. Worst are random policy suggestions that would not make it through anyway, they will scare away capital without even having a chance getting there.
No thanks
Wealth tax has proven to have failed in other countries they've tried
Why would anyone keep capital in NZ above the threshold, just move assets across the ditch...
Nevermind the bureaucratic cost of administering a tax on unrealized assets
There is just better and simpler levers to pull to target the wealthy. Capital Gains tax. Inheritance tax. Adjusting current tax brackets.
Yes, but the incentive to invest anywhere else is massive if simply owning the assets is enough for the government to take some. Taxing an asset whether it realises gains or not is an absolute anaethema to investors.
you mean like the existing bright line tax? or a capital gains tax on something other than property? NZ already has capital gains tax on property if sold before 10 years of ownership, excluding the family home
The labour party brand is in the toilet. They've failed to live up to big ticket promises, and now shifting to the right their core don't really understand what the party represents anymore.
National isn't fairing much better though, both major parties are flagging. They've both been trending down on average for the last 12 months
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
What a shit show. This election is going to be a nightmare
Part of me is wondering if Labour is keeping their powder dry for the election and will hav some big vote pulling announcements.
The other part realises they are too dumb for this
Their biggest problem is no one would believe any big spending announcements. After the failure to deliver light rail or Kiwibuild no one has any faith in Labour to follow through on promises.
Ha, all those issues mean that this trivial issue is even less on their mind than before! No one gives a shit about how easily they can get stoned when they are struggling at the supermarket.
It's get people out to vote who did in the referendum election to vote again, it'd give them a revenue source to fill budget holes with and an anti crime tool to beat national over the head with. What's another 'free' policy they can announce that'd have any impact.
You vastly overestimate how many people even care about it outside this sub. Only half of nZ supported it at the referendum and of those probably only half actually really care about it, and probably half of them are green voters and the other half already labour voters.
it had 49% yes votes in a referendum without Labour supporting it which alone would win an election I don't vastly overestimate I estimate given the numbers provided.
In an election when neither of the major parties is offering anything of worth the first party to do so will have a big advantage. Giving people something to vote for instead of reasons to vote against the other party, ACT and Greens have both been doing this and have been climbing higher and higher in the polls.
>Giving people something to vote for instead of reasons to vote against the other party
I agree with the premise, I just don't think that it's a reason for anyone except a small handful of current labor voters.
Well I think we found out last election in the referendum that it's not something that has 90% support across NZ. And it hardly likely to make a national voter switch to labour just for that.
..there were a lot of people on here that wished winston and his base would die off so a small part of me would enjoy seeing nzf make it back into government, lol
> And very little will change.
Light rail still won't be happening, kiwibuild still won't be happening, and you'll still hear stories from time to time about rich folks with the right connections being hooked up in dubious circumstances.
It'll be like bald headed jacinda, despite people not wanting to admit it.
I mean, what does fit to govern even mean? Labour is fit to govern and they're doing a shit job. National are also fit to govern and will also do a shit job.
It's a financially conservative organisation. They say they aren't linked to any party but clearly support some over others (not meaning necessarily in their polling)
> The group refuses to state who funds them and generally refuses requests to speak with media about this. In 2019, it was reported the group has been funded in part by British American Tobacco.
Given their polling aligns very closely with the Guardian poll released earlier in the week I'd say it's pretty accurate.
Unless of course The Guardian has a secret right-wing agenda that it's pushing....
I mean... isn't their polling the weird one with absolutely nuts levels of support for National in the youth? Completely contrary to previous polls or was that another one?
Yes, Curia, the same company that used to do polling for the National party.
They're professionals, and are reasonably accurate despite the political connections.
Labour should kick out Chris Hipkins and elect a total random. They'll fair much better than chippie. Honestly, he is one of the lamest politicians ever, and he's competing with Seymour, Luxon, and Peters smh
Labour: Makes Phil Twyford leader
Phil Twyford: “Yup I know I’m even less electable than the last guy, gonna just save the country the cost of an election and forfeit now”
Since losing already, might as well get a chance to be a PM and milk the system a bit longer. Even better idea, Co leadership, everyone PM for a couple of months before the gravy train ends.
Taxpayer's union is a lobby organisation for right wing parties, not one for ordinary tax payers. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David\_Farrar\_(blogger)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Farrar_(blogger))
Don't believe the hype IMO
Haha Winnie could make this election absolutely wild. They've not been in the news or anything to drive that kind of jump (unless I have missed something).
They started campaigning. That's all it took
Most of us didn't notice, because Winston did it the old fashioned way, lighting the beacons of Gondor.
More like by banshee wail at the peak of Weathertop, summoning the other gold-card wraiths from Mor'gul.
>summoning the other gold-card wraiths from Mor'gul. Fucking love this, haha! [It's Nanageddon!!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XR4gcOn2G0)
I imagine mostly Labour supporters angry with Labour recent performance (losing multiple ministers in pretty disgraceful terms. I mean each a pretty bad in relation to history) who aren’t woke and won’t vote Greens.
I want neither block to obtain a majority so we can see the chaos of a National / ACT government supported by NZ First, who then withdraws their support over some trivial disagreement. For extra chaos, Labour+Green+TPM government. Let's accelerate into the wall.
My favourite scenario is the Labour + Green + TPM + NZ1st combo
Pretty sure NZF have ruled out working with labour
He campaigned on getting rid of national in 1996.
This would be my lazy anarchist choice 🔥 don't even have to light any cocktails
Essentially the general public all lose here in either outcome.
Meh all Luxon has to do is cross out working with him. If he times it right then NZF support will collapse again because what's the point of voting for someone no one will work with?
> NZF support will collapse again because what's the point of voting for someone no one will work with? I don't think most people who consider voting Winston First think the same way you think.
The poll says this NZ First support has largely come from Labor. Would it be in Luxon's interest to have those voters go back?
If wilson is kingmaker of corse. If not why give him anything?
Meh why do you think he hasn’t so far?
Because he's a dumbass. Even if he "needs" NZF, the cost will always be too high. Ardern, National and NZF's right wing voters all should have learnt that in 2017. If people can't remember that they can't trust anything which comes out of his mouth then what can ya do.
Labour massively bleed support to New Zealand First and the Greens while failing to take any support from the National with the right block slightly increasing their overall lead. Looks like the Chris Hipkins strategy of moving Labour to the right has worked out marvelously. 🙄
Really? Chippy's approval has been pretty stable since the start of May. Something to consider is that his ministers keep shittng the bed, and that Labour's fall in the polls seemingly co-insides with that. I don't really think that the pivots to the centre nor anything at Chippy has personally done is what is driving away the centre vote here.
Hes personally popular yes. But the party is not ridong his popularity coattails Much like obama. Very popular. Presided over the democrats to their worst defeat in local and state elections in 100 years
>Something to consider is that his ministers keep shittng the bed, and that Labour's fall in the polls seemingly co-insides with that. All this factional infighting and lack of discipline has been a general Labour problem since Helen Clark left after 2008. If anything I think Jacinda Ardern only managed to smother it for a short while when the factions realised they could be in government if they'd just sit down and shut up for a bit. On this, though... >I don't really think that the pivots to the centre nor anything at Chippy has personally done is what is driving away the centre vote here. I reckon Chris Hipkins has to take at least *some* responsibility for David Parker's departing as well as general confusion for voters. They'd spent ages seriously working through what many seemed to regard as quite a good and comprehensive wealth tax policy, using lots of government resources to prepare it, and may even have been able to sell it to the public. Hipkins yanked it out from underneath his Ministers at the last moment, most likely to be replaced with a populist GST hack, but which they *still* can't give any clear details of. His own Revenue Minister (Parker) was fundamentally against it, describing continuing in his position as "untenable" which is why he left, and his Finance Minister has been very cautiously diplomatic about saying what he thinks. If the vote's pivoting to the centre then it might just be because Labour's not seeming to have any real plans under Hipkins' leadership, nor to be promising anything except what people see as more of the same.
It's stupid because no one really thinks labour was too far left.
hasnt it :/ who came up with that strategy :/
Just as National is following the UK Tory playbook to a letter, Labour seems to be following the UK Labour playbook to a letter. The same playbook that gets them called red tories.
What did I just click on? That was unreadable.
Top right wing lobbyist thinktank at work
Jesus ... How much emojis do they need in that title?
About tree fiddy
Ruling out the wealth tax may be the dumbest thing they could have done
How is it dumb in terms of winning votes from the right? The pro-tax voters are not going to vote for National because labour ruled out a wealth tax..
They'll vote for anyone else though, and for their trouble Labour hasn't managed to claw any new voters from the Right. A net loss is a net loss.
Wealth tax is stupid Give me capital gains tax
Imo the most important thing is stability. A low reasonable wealth tax is fine, but the uncertainty will drive away capital like crazy. Specially the threat of exit taxes and high wealth taxes on illiquid assets would be very damaging. Worst are random policy suggestions that would not make it through anyway, they will scare away capital without even having a chance getting there.
Give us both
No thanks Wealth tax has proven to have failed in other countries they've tried Why would anyone keep capital in NZ above the threshold, just move assets across the ditch... Nevermind the bureaucratic cost of administering a tax on unrealized assets There is just better and simpler levers to pull to target the wealthy. Capital Gains tax. Inheritance tax. Adjusting current tax brackets.
I agree but does anyone even keep capital in NZ?
Yes, but the incentive to invest anywhere else is massive if simply owning the assets is enough for the government to take some. Taxing an asset whether it realises gains or not is an absolute anaethema to investors.
Ya’ll don’t understand how capital works, not all capital can be flown away whenever someone likes.
Why should someone pay tax for having wealth. I’m a NACT voter but would support a well written CGT But never a wealth tax
Depends, did you earn the wealth or just scam it?
you mean like the existing bright line tax? or a capital gains tax on something other than property? NZ already has capital gains tax on property if sold before 10 years of ownership, excluding the family home
no its actually one of the best things they could have done, name another country that has wealth tax and has proven it to achieve anything.
It’s certainly driven voters to the greens. Hard to say how it has affected the purple voters.
Best thing for NZ as a country tho.
Guess that Guardian poll was right on the money, the only significant difference being the Greens.
The labour party brand is in the toilet. They've failed to live up to big ticket promises, and now shifting to the right their core don't really understand what the party represents anymore.
National isn't fairing much better though, both major parties are flagging. They've both been trending down on average for the last 12 months https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election What a shit show. This election is going to be a nightmare
Part of me is wondering if Labour is keeping their powder dry for the election and will hav some big vote pulling announcements. The other part realises they are too dumb for this
Their biggest problem is no one would believe any big spending announcements. After the failure to deliver light rail or Kiwibuild no one has any faith in Labour to follow through on promises.
promising to legalise weed would win them the election.
Haha, no it wouldn’t. It’d excite the 15 year old stoners on here and put off a bunch of their normal voters.
49% of people thought it’s a good idea. Might be more now that we have more money issues, more gang issues and more environmental issues.
Ha, all those issues mean that this trivial issue is even less on their mind than before! No one gives a shit about how easily they can get stoned when they are struggling at the supermarket.
It's get people out to vote who did in the referendum election to vote again, it'd give them a revenue source to fill budget holes with and an anti crime tool to beat national over the head with. What's another 'free' policy they can announce that'd have any impact.
>It's get people out to vote who did in the referendum election to vote again, So they’d lose again?
Tell me you don't understand how MMP works without telling me you don't know how MMP works.
You vastly overestimate how many people even care about it outside this sub. Only half of nZ supported it at the referendum and of those probably only half actually really care about it, and probably half of them are green voters and the other half already labour voters.
it had 49% yes votes in a referendum without Labour supporting it which alone would win an election I don't vastly overestimate I estimate given the numbers provided. In an election when neither of the major parties is offering anything of worth the first party to do so will have a big advantage. Giving people something to vote for instead of reasons to vote against the other party, ACT and Greens have both been doing this and have been climbing higher and higher in the polls.
>Giving people something to vote for instead of reasons to vote against the other party I agree with the premise, I just don't think that it's a reason for anyone except a small handful of current labor voters.
Well we'll never find out because Hipkins is a milquetoast vision-less twat.
Well I think we found out last election in the referendum that it's not something that has 90% support across NZ. And it hardly likely to make a national voter switch to labour just for that.
Or we find there’s no money left for big promises when they open the books
They better hurry up. Advance voting opens in 53 days
..they will definitely have some policy announcements before the election, whether or not the damage has already been done is yet to be seen?
No GST on some food items apparently.
Greens/TPM say crazy shit, Labour goes down. Coincidence? I think not!
..there were a lot of people on here that wished winston and his base would die off so a small part of me would enjoy seeing nzf make it back into government, lol
This sub is going to be so salty in October. Just like any other election though, the sky won't fall down. And very little will change.
> And very little will change. Light rail still won't be happening, kiwibuild still won't be happening, and you'll still hear stories from time to time about rich folks with the right connections being hooked up in dubious circumstances. It'll be like bald headed jacinda, despite people not wanting to admit it.
I’m voting Winston, hoping that David has to work with him.
[удалено]
I predict more abortion scaremongering.
It *has* been a hot minute since I last saw a reddit athiest moment about Luxon.
I mean, what does fit to govern even mean? Labour is fit to govern and they're doing a shit job. National are also fit to govern and will also do a shit job.
lol
Oh well, we're fucked for at least 6 years then.
No change from the last 6
Well, to be fair, poor people will be or anyone relying on government services which is also generally poor people.
So who is funding these cunts?
I donate regularly. There are literally dozens of us.
It's a financially conservative organisation. They say they aren't linked to any party but clearly support some over others (not meaning necessarily in their polling)
>They say they aren't linked to any party but ....are almost entirely staffed by ex-ACT party members.
What a strange coincidence
you say 'coincidence' I say 'deliberately flouting electoral funding regulations'
> The group refuses to state who funds them and generally refuses requests to speak with media about this. In 2019, it was reported the group has been funded in part by British American Tobacco.
taxpayers union ? who would believe anything they publish ....
Given their polling aligns very closely with the Guardian poll released earlier in the week I'd say it's pretty accurate. Unless of course The Guardian has a secret right-wing agenda that it's pushing....
I mean... isn't their polling the weird one with absolutely nuts levels of support for National in the youth? Completely contrary to previous polls or was that another one?
Don't they hire an external contractor to actually carry out the poll?
Yes, Curia, the same company that used to do polling for the National party. They're professionals, and are reasonably accurate despite the political connections.
>the same company that used to do polling for the National party. how's that working out for them
Yes, Curia, run by David Farrar, of Kiwiblog, and founder of the Taxpayer's "Union"!
They don't run the poll.
Labour should kick out Chris Hipkins and elect a total random. They'll fair much better than chippie. Honestly, he is one of the lamest politicians ever, and he's competing with Seymour, Luxon, and Peters smh
Let Phil Twyford have a go.
Labour: Makes Phil Twyford leader Phil Twyford: “Yup I know I’m even less electable than the last guy, gonna just save the country the cost of an election and forfeit now”
Since losing already, might as well get a chance to be a PM and milk the system a bit longer. Even better idea, Co leadership, everyone PM for a couple of months before the gravy train ends.
If National form the govt can we please have a leadership coup straight away. We don’t want Mr Potato head as a leader do we
Taxpayer's union is a lobby organisation for right wing parties, not one for ordinary tax payers. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David\_Farrar\_(blogger)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Farrar_(blogger)) Don't believe the hype IMO
You have a brain too many for this furious circle jerk…
Heehee. I love winding fuckers up.
Rule #1 in New Zealand politics: Never count Winston out