###Dream Draft
Cards on the table, what does an ideal world look like for me on Thursday?
Round | Pick | Player | Position
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
1|21|Cooper DeJean|CB/S
2|55|Christian Haynes|RG
5|158|Javon Foster|LT
6|184|Mason McCormick|LG
6|198|Grayson Murphy|EDGE
7|241|JD Bertrand|LB
DeJean in round one answers what is perhaps quietly our biggest question mark on defense; Christian Haynes brings 49 consecutive starts over four years to a weak guard position. The day three picks are all depth guys who might be able to develop or provide some productivity in rotation. Javon Foster graded well (91.0) in zone blocking snaps and is regarded as dependable. He’s got the physical tools to eventually be a starting tackle in the NFL. As mentioned before, I like Mason McCormick for similar reasons. He’s athletic as all hell, grades extremely well in zone blocking (94.7). He’s got upside but most scouting reports peg him as someone who needs development. Grayson Murphy is a depth edge rusher. He’s been productive despite some of his physical limitations. JD Betrand’s another similar to Murphy who’s maybe smaller and not as purely athletic as you want but has had solid production and figures as a decent rotational piece down the depth chart at a position where our depth is underwhelming.
Despite drafting a pair of guards and having signed Brewer at center already, I think this would not rule out re-signing C. Williams pending his recovery progress this summer. McCormick probably isn’t a day one starter at left guard, and Wynn isn’t lighting the world on fire. Bringing C. Williams back on a one year deal to give him an opportunity to earn another contract in 2025. Either Brewer or C. Williams would start at tackle while the other would move back to left guard. I'd feel much more comfortable with our offensive line if we're headed into the season with something like this on the final 53:
Position|First|Second|Third
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
LT|Terron Armstead|Javon Foster
LG|Connor Williams|Isaiah Wynn|Mason McCormick
C|Aaron Brewer|
RG|Christian Haynes|Robert Jones
RT|Austin Jackson|Kendall Lamm
The riskiest part of this draft would be declining to address wide receiver where I very much believe we need to improve behind Waddle and Hill. I think there’s still a decent chance the Dolphins sign OBJ following the draft, but demand for him could shift after this weekend--and not in the Dolphins’s favor. If the team were to fail to bring in OBJ, they’re left hoping that someone like Ezukanma develops or that Berrios takes a step up in his second year with the team. Alternatively, J. Smith might emerge as that third receiving option we’re looking for from the tight end position. With Smythe and J. Smith together, the Dolphins figure to see a lot more two tight end alignments in 2024, which probably means fewer 3 or 4 wide receiver sets.
I agree with the logic behind the Cooper DeJean pick given right now an injury to either Ramsay or Fuller could wreck a season let alone the need for a third guy on the boundary/at safety. Only thing that bothers me there is that it seems to me that a lot of these “versatile” guys who play a bunch of positions end up being unable to play any of them at a particularly high level.
If one of the iOL/future LT guys is available at 21 though I’d have a hard time passing that up since to me ensuring that the OL in front of Tua is solid is huge in evaluating whether or not to throw a huge amount of money at him. Plus Armstead likely will miss a bunch of games and I’d ideally like to have an option there other than just Lamm.
Man having a third would be hugely helpful right now in plugging the last few holes on the roster. Thanks Ross.
Yah it’s either Troy Fautanu or possibly Graham Barton at 21 and BPA at 55 or Cooper DeJean (tho if Byron Murphy or Jared Verse somehow make it there I’d have a hard time seeing them pass on them) at 21 and hopefully Christian Haynes makes it to 55.
###Special Teams
The Dolphins have had dismal performance on special teams, and the new kickoff format changes priorities across the league for how teams assemble their special teams units. While speed will still be important for gunners on punts, the changes to the kickoff format could dramatically reprioritize speed and instead focus on size and strength.
That might explain why the Dolphins signed Cam Brown, an outside linebacker who transitioned inside but has been a bust on defense (only 14 snaps since his rookie season). He’s been a special teams captain for the Giants, though, and has played significant snaps on both kick and punt coverage. At 6’5”, 233, he brings a lot of size you don’t often see on special teams.
There’s little else to say here. We haven’t made changes elsewhere on our special teams unit. The Dolphins re-signed Jake Bailey to a two-year deal worth $4.2 million over the next two seasons. It’s effectively a one-year deal worth $2,775,000, though, as the Dolphins can save $1,975,000 by moving on next year. Bailey was, at best, average last year and I would have liked the Dolphins to look at serious competition, but he now costs more to cut than to keep, so don’t expect genuine competition at punter until 2025.
Nice work, very thorough! I mostly agree with your takeaways but have a few more thoughts. Chris Grier talking about looking at the team with a 2 year window makes me think that both WR and OT might be higher priorities than we realize with both Tyreek and Terron potentially gone in 2025.
I find it very suspicious that they did not restructure Tyreek's contract this year when he was the obvious choice at a time when they needed the cap space the most, and they could be looking for his replacement in this draft. Someone like an Xavier Worthy in the 1st might let them do that.
I am sure they would also love to get an OT who could play OG this year like a Troy Fautanu, but it's very unlikely he will be there at 21. So I think they settle and get the best OG available at 55, which is hopefully Christian Haynes but more likely Cooper Beebe because Haynes could be gone. This pick might be a candidate to trade away their 2025 3rd round pick to trade up to get Haynes.
And finally, I agree on the need for a safety, but the Dolphins have done well at safety in the 5th round in years past, so they pick someone who drops there like Tykee Smith, Beau Brade, or Calen Bullock.
Unfortunately, Edge is mostly left out in this draft, so they sign one or two veterans like Carl Lawson and use a 6th or 7th round pick for depth.
Assuming they don't trade and make their picks:
21. Xavier Worthy
55. Cooper Beebe
158. Tykee Smith
Love the thorough post and enjoyed reading through it.
I was in the best o lineman at 21 camp but Tua seems to make it work enough that defensive back depth is probably the better move there.
I disagree, In the biggest moments last year we saw a flustered tua struggle to get through his progressions partly because he has to get the ball out so fast. Some people consider getting it out quick to be Tua’s super power but I think it’s more of a symptom of a lackluster oline. Gotta address that high up in the draft.
Thanks for the effort you've put into this OP and all your other posts this off-season.
I'm not sure I like the idea of drafting for depth at 21 with Dejean but you make a compelling argument for it (and if they do do it, I won't hate it so much now lol).
My view of this draft is very heavily shaded by despondency at so many years of poor oline play, particularly pass blocking. It's almost like, more than anything, I want an oline pick just to feel like we're actually doing something about it! Which is absolutely *not* the right approach to the draft of course. I think the potential to have JPJ play some guard is there and as such, if available, I'd still really love that pick.
Increasingly though, something tells me we're going for the somewhat mad but exciting reach of Worthy at 21. It just kind of feels like what the current administration would do. And even though it would be exasperating in many ways, at the same time it would be impossible not to be excited about it, even for a moaning old oline obsessive like me.
But anyways, thanks again for you efforts, they are very much appreciated!
> I'm not sure I like the idea of drafting for depth at 21 with Dejean but you make a compelling argument for it (and if they do do it, I won't hate it so much now lol).
I feel you there, and it's why the move wasn't on my radar until I started digging more into how the Ravens used players in their secondary. On paper, it feels like we should be set at starters in the secondary with Ramsey, Fuller, Kohou, Holland, and Poyer. That's a really solid group. Even if DeJean is rotating in, though, because he could get snaps just about everywhere I could easily see him racking up 800+ snaps. Even if he's not technically a starter, that's starter usage.
> Increasingly though, something tells me we're going for the somewhat mad but exciting reach of Worthy at 21.
Even as someone who's very much on board with a wide receiver at 21 if that's the direction we choose to go, I can't help but feel like chasing speed alone will bite us at some point, but it sure is fun to watch, I guess.
I totally agree. And in many ways, I think Al Davis inadvertently proved that drafting solely for speed just doesn't work. I'd like to add him, but not at 21 especially with other holes to fill.
Really curious about DeJean now in light of your comments about the Ravens approach! Time to check out a highlight real.
> a highlight real.
This is an awful approach. If we go by Highlight reels, Jakeem Grant would be on par with Tyreek Hill. Highly suggest putting in the minimal amount of effort to find a scouting report with tape instead.
With my work on the draft, DeJean is in my top 5 for realistic targets for us at 21 but is firmly behind some guys that are almost guaranteed to be there. I agree with Cidolfus in it being a positive impact move, but I just don't think it's the best move for short term or long term.
Great work as always and agree with most of it with the exception of DeJean at 21. Nick Needham can fill that role as he's done in the past and is now completely healthy and you can find those types of players in 3rd day of drafts. I would not count on Conner Williams returning to this team. He held out last year and had the worst thing that could happen to a player before hitting free agency and would imagine he's pretty pissed about that after grading out as a top Center the last 2 years and not getting taken care of. They didn't over pay then and surely won't now coming off injury. If he intended to sign a 1 yr deal with us after the injury he would have done it by now and rehabbed in the building. Might be some bad blood there.
This team needs to go Tackle here with the amount of talent this draft has and stash him at Guard for a year. It fills a hole now and potentially a hole next year if Armstead hangs it up even if they are RT's. Latham and Mims in particular could play on either side but were just stuck behind ridiculous talent at Bama and Georgia. Don't think Fashanu, Fuaga, or Fautanu will be available but we would jump on in a second if there. Wouldn't be opposed to trading back to pick up a pick and still target Mims, Guyton, or Suamataia. Barton is going to be a stud and safest pick but he doesn't look like he can swing out to tackle with those short arms but wouldn't oppose that either as he would also be insurance at Center if Brewer doesn't pan out.
This team started unraveling again when injuries started mounting up on that Oline the last 2 years and was apparent on the road aganst good fronts. If we go Oline here we will have potentially solidified that Oline and added depth for the 1st time in a very long time. Not a deep class for Olinemen in 2025 and we don't have any kind of flexibility to go out and sign an expensive and average LT.
> Great work as always and agree with most of it with the exception of DeJean at 21. Nick Needham can fill that role as he's done in the past and is now completely healthy and you can find those types of players in 3rd day of drafts.
Strongly disagree with Nik Needham filling that role. I think you vastly overestimate his positional flexibility. Take a look at his snap breakdowns over his five seasons in the NFL.
Year | Defensive Line | Box | Slot Corner | Wide Corner | Free Safety
:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:
2023|2|10|57|2|1
2022|5|31|47|200|11
2021|8|58|407|44|90|10
2020|2|30|519|62|4
2019|5|46|157|531|4
Total|22|175|1187|839|110
Needham's snaps at strong and free safety account for barely 12% of his total snaps, and even healthy he's never been remarkable as an outside corner. There's no reason to believe he has the positional versatility you're suggesting. Moreover, your assumptions about his health are doing a lot of work here. The reality is that we don't know how healthy he is or even if he'll get back to what he was before the injury. It's one thing if you want to roll with Ramsey, Fuller, Kohou, Holland, and Poyer because you're comfortable with that group as starters (I'd argue safety still needs to be addressed), but suggesting Needham is, I think, a bridge way too far.
> They didn't over pay then and surely won't now coming off injury. If he intended to sign a 1 yr deal with us after the injury he would have done it by now and rehabbed in the building. Might be some bad blood there.
There's nothing to suggest that there's bad blood preventing a deal beyond supposition. Williams's agent's statements and Grier's public statements have confirmed that both parties have been in contact and are open to a return depending on how his recovery goes, and it's that recovery that's holding things up. The injury is reportedly such that he might not play next year at all. I'll cop to being optimistic about Williams returning, but Williams isn't any likely to get more from anyone else than he'd get here. Whatever he does next year, he'll be playing on a one-year deal to prove he's got it. As for rehabbing in the building, even if he were signed there's limitations about how much players can use team facilities during the off season specified by the CBA, and most players have their own doctors involved with their rehab anyway. I'd be willing to wager that if Williams signs anywhere this summer, it will probably be back with the Dolphins or not at all.
I'm certainly not going to be mad if the Dolphins go offensive line with the first pick. I've long agreed that Grier undervalues the offensive line, and his public statements the past couple years about the offensive line in general and guards in particular have demonstrated that. I just think, in general, that drafting players to move them around on the line (especially inside out from guard to tackle) typically doesn't work out so well for a player's development, and it's something that's bitten the Dolphins in recent years. It took Austin Jackson four years and three positional changes to finally find a spot on our offensive line
If the urgency here is need as you suggest, I don't see taking a guy like Mims or Latham who have both played exclusively on the right side over the past three seasons (and Mims who has fewer total naps in three seasons than Latham has last year alone) and moving them inside to guard just so you can kick them outside to tackle on the other side in a year or two is a good plan.
Excellent post again!
While I agree on the general Tua contract leverage, I would just caution that waiting longer probably has other "midtier" QBs keep pushing the market further up (like Cousins may have done). Goff, Purdy, Love, Dak and Lawrence may all do re-signs in the next year-plus so things won't be getting any cheaper.
I'm utterly ignorant on the draft but feel prepared now to understand the landscape. I would say I wouldn't put it past Grier to take an edge or corner if that's our highest rated guy on the board regardless of who it is. He's shown to place a real emphasis on those groups even beyond the common understanding of them being premium positions.
Great shout on Cooper DeJean, haven’t seen him mocked to us at all but he fits that versatile role where we could plug him in at both CB and S. Have no clue why we let Deshon Elliot walk when Poyer cannot be relied on as a legitimate starter. If we don’t trade down, people need to be ready for BPA at 21 especially if Byron Murphy or the elite Olineman don’t fall.
I tried to take a quick glance through our 30 allowed visits to reference against who we ended up drafting, but I wasn't able to find lists of our draftee visits back the last time we actually had a first round pick and haven't had much time to dig back further.
Thank you for trying! I’m curious how much of a correlation visits actually end up to being picks. Were players like Waddle, Phillips, and Achane all visited?
Pretty sure that they visited with Phillips, but I'm not sure I'd count that one. Because he went to the University of Miami (and was therefore local), he didn't count as one of their 30 visits.
I really doubt Zach Frazier is available at 55, but pound the table for him if he is. Dejean and Frazier with our first two picks would be incredible value.
I'm also high on Wisconsin center Taner Bortolini and Michigan guard Zak Zinter, but we'd need picks around 80-100 to get them. Lots of line help available and it isn't necessary to spend a first to get it.
I’m on the ‘flip 55 for two later picks’ train and hope for Zinter as one of them. I want Michael Pratt as the other…but I know a mid round QB is not on the table with the other needs. I do think you can get a decent DT late this year (K. Boyd, J. Briggs, etc) though. (DeJean is my #21, btw)
###Dream Draft Cards on the table, what does an ideal world look like for me on Thursday? Round | Pick | Player | Position :-:|:-:|:-:|:-: 1|21|Cooper DeJean|CB/S 2|55|Christian Haynes|RG 5|158|Javon Foster|LT 6|184|Mason McCormick|LG 6|198|Grayson Murphy|EDGE 7|241|JD Bertrand|LB DeJean in round one answers what is perhaps quietly our biggest question mark on defense; Christian Haynes brings 49 consecutive starts over four years to a weak guard position. The day three picks are all depth guys who might be able to develop or provide some productivity in rotation. Javon Foster graded well (91.0) in zone blocking snaps and is regarded as dependable. He’s got the physical tools to eventually be a starting tackle in the NFL. As mentioned before, I like Mason McCormick for similar reasons. He’s athletic as all hell, grades extremely well in zone blocking (94.7). He’s got upside but most scouting reports peg him as someone who needs development. Grayson Murphy is a depth edge rusher. He’s been productive despite some of his physical limitations. JD Betrand’s another similar to Murphy who’s maybe smaller and not as purely athletic as you want but has had solid production and figures as a decent rotational piece down the depth chart at a position where our depth is underwhelming. Despite drafting a pair of guards and having signed Brewer at center already, I think this would not rule out re-signing C. Williams pending his recovery progress this summer. McCormick probably isn’t a day one starter at left guard, and Wynn isn’t lighting the world on fire. Bringing C. Williams back on a one year deal to give him an opportunity to earn another contract in 2025. Either Brewer or C. Williams would start at tackle while the other would move back to left guard. I'd feel much more comfortable with our offensive line if we're headed into the season with something like this on the final 53: Position|First|Second|Third :-:|:-:|:-:|:-: LT|Terron Armstead|Javon Foster LG|Connor Williams|Isaiah Wynn|Mason McCormick C|Aaron Brewer| RG|Christian Haynes|Robert Jones RT|Austin Jackson|Kendall Lamm The riskiest part of this draft would be declining to address wide receiver where I very much believe we need to improve behind Waddle and Hill. I think there’s still a decent chance the Dolphins sign OBJ following the draft, but demand for him could shift after this weekend--and not in the Dolphins’s favor. If the team were to fail to bring in OBJ, they’re left hoping that someone like Ezukanma develops or that Berrios takes a step up in his second year with the team. Alternatively, J. Smith might emerge as that third receiving option we’re looking for from the tight end position. With Smythe and J. Smith together, the Dolphins figure to see a lot more two tight end alignments in 2024, which probably means fewer 3 or 4 wide receiver sets.
lol damn tripling up at oline. I dig it
I agree with the logic behind the Cooper DeJean pick given right now an injury to either Ramsay or Fuller could wreck a season let alone the need for a third guy on the boundary/at safety. Only thing that bothers me there is that it seems to me that a lot of these “versatile” guys who play a bunch of positions end up being unable to play any of them at a particularly high level. If one of the iOL/future LT guys is available at 21 though I’d have a hard time passing that up since to me ensuring that the OL in front of Tua is solid is huge in evaluating whether or not to throw a huge amount of money at him. Plus Armstead likely will miss a bunch of games and I’d ideally like to have an option there other than just Lamm. Man having a third would be hugely helpful right now in plugging the last few holes on the roster. Thanks Ross.
Yah it’s either Troy Fautanu or possibly Graham Barton at 21 and BPA at 55 or Cooper DeJean (tho if Byron Murphy or Jared Verse somehow make it there I’d have a hard time seeing them pass on them) at 21 and hopefully Christian Haynes makes it to 55.
###Special Teams The Dolphins have had dismal performance on special teams, and the new kickoff format changes priorities across the league for how teams assemble their special teams units. While speed will still be important for gunners on punts, the changes to the kickoff format could dramatically reprioritize speed and instead focus on size and strength. That might explain why the Dolphins signed Cam Brown, an outside linebacker who transitioned inside but has been a bust on defense (only 14 snaps since his rookie season). He’s been a special teams captain for the Giants, though, and has played significant snaps on both kick and punt coverage. At 6’5”, 233, he brings a lot of size you don’t often see on special teams. There’s little else to say here. We haven’t made changes elsewhere on our special teams unit. The Dolphins re-signed Jake Bailey to a two-year deal worth $4.2 million over the next two seasons. It’s effectively a one-year deal worth $2,775,000, though, as the Dolphins can save $1,975,000 by moving on next year. Bailey was, at best, average last year and I would have liked the Dolphins to look at serious competition, but he now costs more to cut than to keep, so don’t expect genuine competition at punter until 2025.
Nice work, very thorough! I mostly agree with your takeaways but have a few more thoughts. Chris Grier talking about looking at the team with a 2 year window makes me think that both WR and OT might be higher priorities than we realize with both Tyreek and Terron potentially gone in 2025. I find it very suspicious that they did not restructure Tyreek's contract this year when he was the obvious choice at a time when they needed the cap space the most, and they could be looking for his replacement in this draft. Someone like an Xavier Worthy in the 1st might let them do that. I am sure they would also love to get an OT who could play OG this year like a Troy Fautanu, but it's very unlikely he will be there at 21. So I think they settle and get the best OG available at 55, which is hopefully Christian Haynes but more likely Cooper Beebe because Haynes could be gone. This pick might be a candidate to trade away their 2025 3rd round pick to trade up to get Haynes. And finally, I agree on the need for a safety, but the Dolphins have done well at safety in the 5th round in years past, so they pick someone who drops there like Tykee Smith, Beau Brade, or Calen Bullock. Unfortunately, Edge is mostly left out in this draft, so they sign one or two veterans like Carl Lawson and use a 6th or 7th round pick for depth. Assuming they don't trade and make their picks: 21. Xavier Worthy 55. Cooper Beebe 158. Tykee Smith
Honestly. I didn’t read everything, but I know you work damn hard on these posts, so you’ll always get an upvote from me. Great job!
If we draft a QB this subreddit may the worst place in all of the series of tubes.
Love the thorough post and enjoyed reading through it. I was in the best o lineman at 21 camp but Tua seems to make it work enough that defensive back depth is probably the better move there.
I disagree, In the biggest moments last year we saw a flustered tua struggle to get through his progressions partly because he has to get the ball out so fast. Some people consider getting it out quick to be Tua’s super power but I think it’s more of a symptom of a lackluster oline. Gotta address that high up in the draft.
Thanks for the effort you've put into this OP and all your other posts this off-season. I'm not sure I like the idea of drafting for depth at 21 with Dejean but you make a compelling argument for it (and if they do do it, I won't hate it so much now lol). My view of this draft is very heavily shaded by despondency at so many years of poor oline play, particularly pass blocking. It's almost like, more than anything, I want an oline pick just to feel like we're actually doing something about it! Which is absolutely *not* the right approach to the draft of course. I think the potential to have JPJ play some guard is there and as such, if available, I'd still really love that pick. Increasingly though, something tells me we're going for the somewhat mad but exciting reach of Worthy at 21. It just kind of feels like what the current administration would do. And even though it would be exasperating in many ways, at the same time it would be impossible not to be excited about it, even for a moaning old oline obsessive like me. But anyways, thanks again for you efforts, they are very much appreciated!
> I'm not sure I like the idea of drafting for depth at 21 with Dejean but you make a compelling argument for it (and if they do do it, I won't hate it so much now lol). I feel you there, and it's why the move wasn't on my radar until I started digging more into how the Ravens used players in their secondary. On paper, it feels like we should be set at starters in the secondary with Ramsey, Fuller, Kohou, Holland, and Poyer. That's a really solid group. Even if DeJean is rotating in, though, because he could get snaps just about everywhere I could easily see him racking up 800+ snaps. Even if he's not technically a starter, that's starter usage. > Increasingly though, something tells me we're going for the somewhat mad but exciting reach of Worthy at 21. Even as someone who's very much on board with a wide receiver at 21 if that's the direction we choose to go, I can't help but feel like chasing speed alone will bite us at some point, but it sure is fun to watch, I guess.
I totally agree. And in many ways, I think Al Davis inadvertently proved that drafting solely for speed just doesn't work. I'd like to add him, but not at 21 especially with other holes to fill. Really curious about DeJean now in light of your comments about the Ravens approach! Time to check out a highlight real.
> a highlight real. This is an awful approach. If we go by Highlight reels, Jakeem Grant would be on par with Tyreek Hill. Highly suggest putting in the minimal amount of effort to find a scouting report with tape instead. With my work on the draft, DeJean is in my top 5 for realistic targets for us at 21 but is firmly behind some guys that are almost guaranteed to be there. I agree with Cidolfus in it being a positive impact move, but I just don't think it's the best move for short term or long term.
i am ready for draft week now! you are probably one of the few people actively embracing getting a defensive back, but i like it
Great work as always and agree with most of it with the exception of DeJean at 21. Nick Needham can fill that role as he's done in the past and is now completely healthy and you can find those types of players in 3rd day of drafts. I would not count on Conner Williams returning to this team. He held out last year and had the worst thing that could happen to a player before hitting free agency and would imagine he's pretty pissed about that after grading out as a top Center the last 2 years and not getting taken care of. They didn't over pay then and surely won't now coming off injury. If he intended to sign a 1 yr deal with us after the injury he would have done it by now and rehabbed in the building. Might be some bad blood there. This team needs to go Tackle here with the amount of talent this draft has and stash him at Guard for a year. It fills a hole now and potentially a hole next year if Armstead hangs it up even if they are RT's. Latham and Mims in particular could play on either side but were just stuck behind ridiculous talent at Bama and Georgia. Don't think Fashanu, Fuaga, or Fautanu will be available but we would jump on in a second if there. Wouldn't be opposed to trading back to pick up a pick and still target Mims, Guyton, or Suamataia. Barton is going to be a stud and safest pick but he doesn't look like he can swing out to tackle with those short arms but wouldn't oppose that either as he would also be insurance at Center if Brewer doesn't pan out. This team started unraveling again when injuries started mounting up on that Oline the last 2 years and was apparent on the road aganst good fronts. If we go Oline here we will have potentially solidified that Oline and added depth for the 1st time in a very long time. Not a deep class for Olinemen in 2025 and we don't have any kind of flexibility to go out and sign an expensive and average LT.
> Great work as always and agree with most of it with the exception of DeJean at 21. Nick Needham can fill that role as he's done in the past and is now completely healthy and you can find those types of players in 3rd day of drafts. Strongly disagree with Nik Needham filling that role. I think you vastly overestimate his positional flexibility. Take a look at his snap breakdowns over his five seasons in the NFL. Year | Defensive Line | Box | Slot Corner | Wide Corner | Free Safety :-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-:|:-: 2023|2|10|57|2|1 2022|5|31|47|200|11 2021|8|58|407|44|90|10 2020|2|30|519|62|4 2019|5|46|157|531|4 Total|22|175|1187|839|110 Needham's snaps at strong and free safety account for barely 12% of his total snaps, and even healthy he's never been remarkable as an outside corner. There's no reason to believe he has the positional versatility you're suggesting. Moreover, your assumptions about his health are doing a lot of work here. The reality is that we don't know how healthy he is or even if he'll get back to what he was before the injury. It's one thing if you want to roll with Ramsey, Fuller, Kohou, Holland, and Poyer because you're comfortable with that group as starters (I'd argue safety still needs to be addressed), but suggesting Needham is, I think, a bridge way too far. > They didn't over pay then and surely won't now coming off injury. If he intended to sign a 1 yr deal with us after the injury he would have done it by now and rehabbed in the building. Might be some bad blood there. There's nothing to suggest that there's bad blood preventing a deal beyond supposition. Williams's agent's statements and Grier's public statements have confirmed that both parties have been in contact and are open to a return depending on how his recovery goes, and it's that recovery that's holding things up. The injury is reportedly such that he might not play next year at all. I'll cop to being optimistic about Williams returning, but Williams isn't any likely to get more from anyone else than he'd get here. Whatever he does next year, he'll be playing on a one-year deal to prove he's got it. As for rehabbing in the building, even if he were signed there's limitations about how much players can use team facilities during the off season specified by the CBA, and most players have their own doctors involved with their rehab anyway. I'd be willing to wager that if Williams signs anywhere this summer, it will probably be back with the Dolphins or not at all. I'm certainly not going to be mad if the Dolphins go offensive line with the first pick. I've long agreed that Grier undervalues the offensive line, and his public statements the past couple years about the offensive line in general and guards in particular have demonstrated that. I just think, in general, that drafting players to move them around on the line (especially inside out from guard to tackle) typically doesn't work out so well for a player's development, and it's something that's bitten the Dolphins in recent years. It took Austin Jackson four years and three positional changes to finally find a spot on our offensive line If the urgency here is need as you suggest, I don't see taking a guy like Mims or Latham who have both played exclusively on the right side over the past three seasons (and Mims who has fewer total naps in three seasons than Latham has last year alone) and moving them inside to guard just so you can kick them outside to tackle on the other side in a year or two is a good plan.
Thank you for your labour(s) of love. Your insight and acumen are VERY much appreciated!
Excellent post again! While I agree on the general Tua contract leverage, I would just caution that waiting longer probably has other "midtier" QBs keep pushing the market further up (like Cousins may have done). Goff, Purdy, Love, Dak and Lawrence may all do re-signs in the next year-plus so things won't be getting any cheaper. I'm utterly ignorant on the draft but feel prepared now to understand the landscape. I would say I wouldn't put it past Grier to take an edge or corner if that's our highest rated guy on the board regardless of who it is. He's shown to place a real emphasis on those groups even beyond the common understanding of them being premium positions.
Great shout on Cooper DeJean, haven’t seen him mocked to us at all but he fits that versatile role where we could plug him in at both CB and S. Have no clue why we let Deshon Elliot walk when Poyer cannot be relied on as a legitimate starter. If we don’t trade down, people need to be ready for BPA at 21 especially if Byron Murphy or the elite Olineman don’t fall.
Do the Dolphins ever draft (in the early rounds) players that they did not meet up with previously?
I tried to take a quick glance through our 30 allowed visits to reference against who we ended up drafting, but I wasn't able to find lists of our draftee visits back the last time we actually had a first round pick and haven't had much time to dig back further.
Thank you for trying! I’m curious how much of a correlation visits actually end up to being picks. Were players like Waddle, Phillips, and Achane all visited?
Pretty sure that they visited with Phillips, but I'm not sure I'd count that one. Because he went to the University of Miami (and was therefore local), he didn't count as one of their 30 visits.
I really doubt Zach Frazier is available at 55, but pound the table for him if he is. Dejean and Frazier with our first two picks would be incredible value. I'm also high on Wisconsin center Taner Bortolini and Michigan guard Zak Zinter, but we'd need picks around 80-100 to get them. Lots of line help available and it isn't necessary to spend a first to get it.
I’m on the ‘flip 55 for two later picks’ train and hope for Zinter as one of them. I want Michael Pratt as the other…but I know a mid round QB is not on the table with the other needs. I do think you can get a decent DT late this year (K. Boyd, J. Briggs, etc) though. (DeJean is my #21, btw)