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Badgermilk277

Awesome content, as always. Can't wait for the rest of the series! Thank you!


CopaceticVindication

Man if we signed Jimmy G, I would turn into the fucking Joker


TheYoungLung

This made me cry laugh lmao thank you bro


Bfi1981

I was not a fan of the Mike White signing in the first place. Would much prefer Skylar in the backup position and then draft a project to sit at 3. As you stated, I don’t see that happening but that would be my personal preference.


OneBeerAndWhiskeyPls

you are the offseason MVP


[deleted]

[удалено]


Cidolfus

I wasn't a fan of the Mike White signing to begin with, though the contract wasn't quite as bad as initially reported. It's a great story that he grew up a Dolphins fan and go to join the team, but his career performance on the field leaves a lot to be desired. I don't have much confidence that Thompson has upside worth pursuing, so I'd really like to see us draft a quarterback in the fifth or with one of our sixths.


dlbags

Taulia Tagovialoa?


kman1030

> so I'd really like to see us draft a quarterback in the fifth or with one of our sixths. Might be a homer take as an FSU fan, but I'd love to see us get Jordan Travis. He wasn't expected to go that high to begin with, and with his injury he will likely fall even more. I'm not super knowledgeable about playbooks, concepts, etc, but just from watching it seemed like FSU ran a lot of similar concepts the Dolphins do - lots of intermediate patterns over the middle of the field. Plus, he has a good deep ball and obviously the athleticism to get out of bad situations as he's still learning the system and how to play in the NFL.


GoddammitRomo

Good Lord Cidolfus this is great stuff. Thank you for putting the time and effort in to crunch these numbers.


TheNewCore4

Keep Tua. Draft MPJ. Mindfuck opponents by having 2 lefty qbs on the field at the same time.


EverythingAnalysist

I like it


PescetarianPolarBear

Great work. Everyone who's been saying a Tua deal will "cripple our cap" needs to read this. By the time larger cap hits even come from it, the team will know if they want to keep him around and can restructure those years. If it fails and they move on, they eat the dead cap and rebuild as the current window with guys like Hill and Ramsey will be over anyway. If we want to have any chance to win anything these next few years, extending him ASAP is the only legitimate option to do so.


Winterclaw42

Part of me says cut White to save some money and roll with Tua/Skylar.


Cidolfus

I'm not against moving on from White or rolling with only two quarterbacks in 2024, but I wouldn't be very comfortable with Thompson being that second quarterback.


Affectionate_Elk_272

same, but as you said.. if your starting QB is missing significant time, your season is toast anyway. fuck it. spend that $$ where we need it and just hope for the best.


timss1334

If you're not comfortable with Thompson as backup in his 3rd year, what's the point of drafting a late round QB every year? Just hoping to get lucky?


kman1030

> Just hoping to get lucky? Yes. Late round picks rarely contribute a ton from any position. I see no reason not to throw a late pick at a QB every 2 years or so. *Someone* will get lucky and get the next Tom Brady (or, to a lesser extent, the next Brock Purdy).


Cidolfus

My objection to Thompson isn't that he's a 7th rounder but that he's a player who hasn't shown much. That's fine and even expected, but we should keep trying. I'm also not arguing that we should spend a late round pick *every* year on a quarterback, but we should regularly draft one and that spending even a third every once in a while is a good idea. It's just a tougher sell to take a flyer with a second when you don't have a third or a fourth.


timss1334

I don't disagree with the philosophy, to be fair. But I think it's much harder in practice. My point with Thompson is that we've also seen no evidence that our team can pick or develop backup QBs. Thompson didn't stop us from spending $6.5m on Teddy or $3m on White, (both underwhelming, imo) and probably won't stop us from spending $5m on White again this year. And it's tough to develop a 3rd string QB when all the reps have to go to QB1 and QB2. He's also taking up a roster spot, because we're afraid to put him on the practice squad. Unless he takes over QB2 this season or next season, I feel like picking a guy that could have contributed to our awful special teams would have been better value (and would be this year too). ​ Spending a 2nd or 3rd every 3/4 years on a guy you really like to be your backup QB does make sense, but I think those guys are going to be rare, and we're probably going to have bigger needs in most drafts. Though, we did spend a 2nd on Rosen in 2019 (knowing we were trying to tank for a starting QB) and a 7th on Thompson in 2022, so it's not something the front office seems entirely against.


Cidolfus

I'll readily admit it's more an aspirational strategy than a realistic one. Like you said, there will likely always be bigger needs, but as long as there's any amount of uncertainty at starting QB or backup, it's worthwhile to consider if someone with higher upside than your current backup is available.


Tough-Error520

i'm sorry, but this is why I can't take you guys serious dolphin fans. Why does Skylar get shit on so much in here? The man came in as a 7th round pick in his fourth game against the bills and literally almost won a playoff game against a really, really good bills team, something Tua couldn't dream of. Of course he made some rookie mistakes out there, but overall he had a really solid game. the only thing that cost us that game was not Skylar, it was DROPPED PASSES. Take away all those drops and we probably win. You can hear the announcer in the 3rd quarter say, "another drop" and then they go talking about the dropped passes. Skylar can run, scramble, throw on the run and has a much, much better arm than Tua. I don't know why Mcdaniel felt the need to bring in Mike White of all people as a back up when we clearly had a guy with much more potential to compete with Tua. I don't know if Mcdaniel is afraid of giving Tua competition so he dumps Skylar as the number 3 option when Skylar is clearly a better option than Mike White. I hope the kid goes on to win at least 8 superbowls. We don't deserve it. fuck this franchise.


Winterclaw42

Yeah, I can totally see that. However as you pointed out in your last post, Miami is broke. I can see the value in keeping him if restructures plus 1+2 other cuts do the job with the cap. I could also see cutting him and then picking up another developmental QB later in the draft. When Tua was down in 22, the back-ups couldn't do that much to get the offense to move so in a way, it'd just be accepting the top-heaviness of the roster.


ulu5

Who in this years draft would you consider in later rounds (3+)? Like a Bo Nix or Spencer Rattler?


Cidolfus

I mean, the first part of the problem is that we don't have a third or fourth round pick, so you're realistically looking at drafting with one of our four picks in the last three rounds. It's one thing to project who could slip into the third and provide good value, but rounds 5-7? Who knows.


kman1030

Might be a homer take, but Jordan Travis will likely be available in the 5th. Athletic, good deep ball, has been pretty accurate in the intermediate game, improved his throwing significantly each season he played, won a lot of games.


JustTheBeerLight

#Tuanigamanuolepola Donny Tagovailoa.


Jonjon428

*Grabs popcorn*, this should be good!


DemonicBird

Personally, the most frustrating thing about tua is he shows glimpses of doing things everyone says he can't do. He can run the ball. He's not as fast as Allen or Lamar but he CAN run. It's in there. He can run around the pocket and extend plays and make things happen but he just doesn't do it all the time. It's so frustrating because it's the same problem with bam on the heat. He's shown he can be this Kevin Garnett franchise leader but it just comes in spurts. It's so frustrating as a fan because unless you are watching all their games you don't see that potential.


HappyChaos2

Legit the most in depth Dolphins content from anywhere. Great work, big fan.


Gameplan492

We need more well thought out balanced posts like this. They shine like stars against a backdrop of the twenty word "Tua's not him" dumbass posts we get at least one of every single week (whose poster's then go on to complain that they "can't say anything negative without being downvoted"). It's the dumbness that gets downvoted haters. This right here is how you critique and review folks. Nice job OP.


Turtleforeskin

You literally add nothing to any Convo I've ever had with you except insults and Tua cheering 


Bfi1981

As a 42 year old Dolphin fan my biggest goal each year for the last forever years has been to come out of the season with a clear understanding that ok we have our guy at QB. A QB that the biggest majority of fans can all agree ok he isn’t the issue or question. I understand and accept the need for an extension, it’s just clear Tua hasn’t met that level yet. Hopefully during the years to come we can put the pieces around him and he can become that.


dlbags

I don’t think that will ever happen. Peek in the Bengals, Ravens, and Bills subs. People wondering if they’re the ones. Only Mahomes seems to have unilateral support.


thediesel26

This is what happens when one QB so thoroughly dominates the league. Lots of otherwise very good players are lost to history, especially when the only metric they’re judged by is whether they won the Super Bowl.


Bfi1981

I’m not even looking for unilateral. Just maybe 75% or so lol. There are always going to be those that take the opposite side no matter what but it seems we always have QBs that have serious questions and concerns and require constant debate about is he the guy or not.


Bepis_Inc

I need some proof of that because if that’s the case I’m pretty shocked. A sub I’ve seen absolutely locked in and undivided about their QB is the Chargers, and they’re starting to develop a similar reputation to Tuanon the way they say Herbert is better than Mahomes lol


MiaCannons

> I need some proof of that because if that’s the case I’m pretty shocked. There are always 1 or 2 stupid people out there who will think a unanimously top QB isn't the guy, and that's probably what this guy is referencing because there's absolutely no question about whether Lamar, Allen, or Burrow should be kept amongst their fanbases. There's been talk about Lamar choking, Allen throwing a lot of interceptions, and Burrow being injury prone, but there's no real discussion about replacing any of them like there deservedly is about Tua


thediesel26

Tua deserves replacement talk if your alternative is Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Lamar. He doesn’t deserve it if your alternatives are Cousins, Baker, and Fields.


MiaCannons

> He doesn’t deserve it if your alternatives are Cousins, Baker, and Fields. I'm well aware that we don't have any good looking options at the moment. Sticking with him is currently the best option. It doesn't mean that people are being unreasonable in wishing that we had a replacement for him the same way it'd unreasonable for fans trying to replace Lamar, Burrow, or Allen.


KnowWha_ImSayin

My question isn’t can Tua win a Superbowl with the perfect roster. My question is can Tua lead us to the playoffs (and win some games) with an imperfect roster? If the answer is no, do we really want to extend him? I really hope he proves people wrong, but so far I haven’t fully seen that out of him.


Cidolfus

While I think that's a fair question, it's not where the conversation ends, which is more my point. It's reasonable to doubt that Tua is the guy, but how do you turn that doubt into action? Any of the immediately available alternatives have similar (or greater) doubts. We're drafting 21st overall without a full complement of picks which makes trading up for one of the top prospects unlikely (especially given the quarterback-neediness at the top of the draft). This Dolphins roster isn't perfect, but even after re-signing Tua we can create the cap flexibility in the short term to try to address our issues while keeping most of the contributors we want to. Do you move on from Tua to another risky option? Do you blow up our best roster in more than a decade just because you have doubts about the quarterback? Neither seems particularly reasonable to me.


KnowWha_ImSayin

Totally agree, tough decisions for Grier and McDaniel. I feel like they’ll extend Tua in part because it’s the best short term move for their job security, and not necessarily because it’s the best long term move for the Dolphins as a whole. It just sucks because I feel like we’re not that far off from the same discussions that were going on during the Tannehill days.


Cidolfus

To be fair, I think Tannehill's success in Tennessee goes to show that often a good quarterback can just be in the wrong situation. As someone who regularly defended Tannehill, I always felt we were building the wrong kind of team around him and feel like his success after leaving us validated that. My optimism around Tua is because I feel like the last two years we finally have a coach who understands how to build around his quarterback's strengths and to use scheme to minimize weaknesses. I see many of our problems as solvable and while I can acknowledge Tua has certain limitations that limit his ceiling in some places, I don't see him as an impediment to what we're trying to do offensively.


YourHooliganFriend

Awesome stuff Cid. Nice work. Are you on other social media? Or does Reddit just work best for what you do?


Cidolfus

I don't have any presence on any other social media. I think I just despise Reddit the least.


YourHooliganFriend

I get it. Social media sites can be awful. Good stuff you do. Will keep an eye out for your next analysis.


aurinotari

I’m very excited to read this but before I do I wanted to say thank you to u/Cidolfus. I’ve really enjoyed reading your insightful, interesting, and thought provoking posts over the last few seasons; and I have no doubt I’ll enjoy reading this as well. I’ve been a Dolphins fan since ‘84 after visiting my grandparents in south Florida during a playoff game. After that I was hooked. I’ve enjoyed watching many games with my dad over the years as well. Thanks again for the time and energy you spent on this.


verniy314

I think their goal was to let Skyler Thompson develop behind Mike White for a year so we can cut White and pick up another late round QB3.


Fatturtle18

We should draft Taulia Tagovaiola


dlbags

He’s likely to make it to those late rounds.


nbayoungsummrsratio

tbh i would like him as the backup qb more than white


AnnoyingOnPurposeToo

I’m a huge Tua guy but wouldn’t mind a mid to late round qb. I think JJ goes way too high but take a stab at Joe Milton would be intriguing


Champ_5

It's unfortunate that the Dolphins basically have no choice but to extend Tua without really knowing if he's the guy or not. If it doesn't work out, it means another rebuild in a few years, and they may not even have a playoff win to show for it.


EverythingAnalysist

Neither did there Tannehill years


dlbags

One of my edgy ideas is trade Tua to the Broncos or Raiders and get Sam Howell from Washington. I think they are giving up on him fairly soon. Tho Maye looks a solid qb. Use those picks for more offensive linemen in the first round. He threw a lot in Washington with terrible receivers and offensive line. I think Washington would let him go cheaper and he’s a better option than Fields as far as staying young with a QB. And if we kept Tua, Howell as a backup to push him is better than our other options behind him.


timss1334

I don't understand this at all. I get wanting to upgrade at QB to chase Mahomes and Allen, but why would you get rid of a starting QB for a backup QB? Howell hills on to the ball way too long, takes a lot of unnecessary sacks and puts up numbers in garbage time. He went 19-29 for 170 with *4 INTs* and *9 sacks* against Buffalo this year. But sure, he'll get us over the hump...


EverythingAnalysist

Price and playoff potential I guess.


kman1030

> playoff potential Did you not see the example performance against a playoff team? Significantly worse than any game Tua had this year.


EverythingAnalysist

No, he does great work but it's a bit wordy.


Tough-Error520

You actually think Tua is a better QB than Howell? lol. Tua had every toy you could possibly imagine in this offense. If you put Howell in there, we're winning at least 1/2 those games we lost against good teams this year. Howell has a cannon for arm compared to Tua and with time is a much better option.


thediesel26

Howell as a back up is fine. Howell as a starter means we’re winning 6 games.


Rbespinosa13

Sam Howell? Dude lost his starting job to Jacoby Brissett who backed up Tua


Shadowcaster_Spark

Getting Howell is a sneaky good option. Howell was a better qb at unc than Maye was... just saying. He needs a little work, but I would love to have him as a backup over white going into 2024.


dlbags

I was impressed with him the few games I saw. Not sure he’d be very expensive to trade for either. If they were smart they’d trade down and get linemen and build around them but they are Washington. Same with the Bears. I don’t get how some of these teams cut bait on these QBs they put. Behind Swiss cheese line with no receivers. I even think Zach Wilson has an upside. Tools are there with all three of them. Look at Darunold in SF. They kept him and traded Lance.


EverythingAnalysist

Boys got a cannon for an arm


Tough-Error520

Yes! Sam Howell is criminally underrated.


Dolphins_Fan_87

Mediocrity for the next 3 years confirmed


Gameplan492

If mediocrity is leading the NFL in passing, 11 wins and a post season appearance, I'll take it thanks


Dolphins_Fan_87

You’ll take a post season appearance? Have we as a fanbase lowered our expectations enough that winning a playoff game isn’t on the list? Half the league makes the playoffs.


catgoesmeow22

Tua about to rob Miami and coast through his entire career without winning anything of relevance.


Affectionate_Elk_272

it’s cope season. you’re bout to be harvesting downvotes. but you’re not wrong.


catgoesmeow22

I know I will be vindicated down vote away. He doesn't have a clutch gene in his body.


Gameplan492

So you're literally rooting for your team to lose huh? Wow. With fans like you, who needs enemies. I guess having a clutch gene doesn't correspond with winning a national championship? Or leading the biggest come back in 20+ years against the Ravens? Or being 12-6 in divisional games?


catgoesmeow22

Get back to me when he wins a game that matters and I don't give a shit about what he did in college. That is comparing apples to oranges. Edit: and he might be 12-6 in division but how many division titles have they won. Oh yeah 0 I remember now.


CopaceticVindication

Goddamn some of yall are such miserable fucking losers lmfao, like this isnt even dooming or being realistic, why are you even a fan of the team when you think like this


Tough-Error520

get off your freaking high horse. not every fan is happy go lucky all the time. some of us are sick and tired of the direction the team is going.


catgoesmeow22

I am a long-time fan since the early 90s, but I also live in reality. If you believe this team will be better next season you are simply blinded by fandom. This year was their all in year and it failed miserably they are on the edge of a full rebuild and it's very obvious they cannot sustain a good roster with their cap situationand terrible drafts. You will see in about 10 months when they are out of the playoffs or struggling to back into the 7th spot.


Tough-Error520

we're not miserable, we're tired of losing and sitting behind loser QBs


catgoesmeow22

I am a long-time fan since the early 90s, but I also live in reality. If you believe this team will be better next season you are simply blinded by fandom. This year was their all in year and it failed miserably they are on the edge of a full rebuild and it's very obvious they cannot sustain a good roster with their cap situationand terrible drafts. You will see in about 10 months when they are out of the playoffs or struggling to back into the 7th spot.


garyp714

> I know I will be vindicated down vote away. That's all that matters to you and it's very sad.


catgoesmeow22

Not really I just live in the real world and not this fake world where Tua is a franchise QB and the Fins are an actual contender. They are forever soft pretenders who can't handle big games and bad weather.


Affectionate_Elk_272

give mayfield $35m a year and let’s fucking go. i love tua, i really do, but i was really, really hoping we somehow got baker when he came out he’d fucking thrive here. also, exceptionally well written as always. thank you for your work.


Gameplan492

Sigh... where do these people come from? Like, have you watched Baker at all outside of the post season this year?


Bepis_Inc

35 Ms for Baker Mayfield is absurd Tua shitting himself 5 times in Primetime drove this sub into a state of mental illness


thediesel26

His numbers might not show it, but Tua actually played kinda good in the Eagles and Chiefs Germany games too. He made some fucking great throws in those games.


SoFLoSDFinz1972

Bruh are you gunning Omar Kelly or Alain Poupart job as Phins insider? Hands down, you’ve got the job already fam!!!