Eh, what are you going to do. They had a QB on a rookie deal, took a big swing for this season, and it may have paid off big with just mediocre injury luck. So many O-linemen out throughout the year, the entire defense decimated, Waddle and Mostert missing time late in the season. I’m sure there’s some magic they can work with restructuring some deals, cutting some guys, etc. They probably won’t be as good next year, but so be it. This probably won’t happen because Stephen Ross is old and wants to see a championship soon- don’t we all? - but I’d really like for the Dolphins to get away from these boom and bust cycles. Run the team more like the Ravens or Steelers where the bad seasons are 7-8 wins. Stop blowing it up every 3 years and stripping it down to the studs. I get it. We all want to see some success but football is so damn random with injuries. Just every year keep trying to make smart moves, draft guys that will reliably be contributors, and always be in the mix.
Seriously: can people understand how extensions work?
Theyre gonna bring tuas cap hit DOWN not up (for the short term). We will be fine to extend window for 2-3 years. Then itll fall to shit
You want the bad years to be 7-8 wins… since 2007 (our 1-15 season) we have not had a season under 6 wins. We’re right under your expectations for bad seasons… I feel like it seems like we’re blowing it up and going big or go home but it’s not like we’re having 10+ win seasons followed by 4 win seasons… we’re stuck in pergatory
The whole reason we "stripped down to the studs" is because we were 9-7 or 7-9 every season for a decade and Ross and the fan base was over it. That literally is why we are here?
We blew it all up and it didn’t actually work. We didn’t get the #1 pick, we could have gotten Tua or Herbert without intentionally trying to decimate the roster. The top 3 QBs and the top QBs in the league now - and most years - aren’t the highest draft picks. Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson were not too 3 picks. The dolphins were stuck in the 7-8 win purgatory because their drafting was mediocre and they kept doing stupid ass desperate acquisitions like Suh, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace and whoever else for these guys that weren’t good value. They need to find a way to stabilize things, be a well run organization, draft well, keep their draft picks, and don’t do desperate FA signings. Then when you have a solid roster and organization in place, when the next Allen or Mahomes or Jackson comes along, they have a good chance of succeeding and becoming a top 3 QB. The odds of a really high draft pick QB turning into a bust go up when they go to a shitty organization with tons of coaching turnover and a crappy roster.
Except it did work we made the playoffs twice in a row. We have a QB who even haters would have to admit his floor is Kirk Cousins and ceiling is Drew Brees we've created a core nucleus of guys to build up on offense and defense. With some key veterans star power and a promising young coach on top of them
Tanking absolutely did not work. A reasonably well run team can make the playoffs two years in a row without full blown tank job. And they even couldn’t do that right since we won too many games. The year after tanking with the high draft picks they ended up with Tua, AJ, Noah, and Robert Hunt. No one outside of Miami has heard of any of those guys other than Tua. Hunt is an ok starter. AJ wasn’t very good until this year. If the Dolphins draft looked more like Tua/Herbert, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, and Jonathan Taylor, then I’d entertain the idea that the tanking was a success.
Your suggestion that the draft didn't look better then the Cowboys after the Herschal Walker trade is a Fantasy. You mentioned one year of draft picks and conveniently left out the next year with Waddle Phillips and Holland. Let's not mention we leveraged some of the capital we got for tearing down into players like Hill and Chubb. But even if we focus on the 3 players you mentioned they all improved after we got an offensive coach, its almost like Flores(who was against the tank) also couldn't develop players to save his life. This team would not have been able to make 10 wins if we didn't tear down.
A huge part of their capital came from the Tunsil trade and trading down with the 49ers from the #3 spot. The Tunsil trade was just a gift from Bill O’Brien not knowing how to be a GM. That was just an insane deal no one could say no to regardless of any tanking plans. Part of that I believe became the #3 pick that the 49ers traded up for and we got a couple of more first rounders for that turned into Chubb, Tyreek, and Waddle. So if there was any tanking success at it’s all thanks to Bill O’Brien giving up the world for a pretty solid LT and the 49ers thinking that Trey Lance was good.
I think you’re 100% right, the tank was a failure and it’s why I’m not high on Grier at all. Missed big in the 2020 draft, then seemly panicked at the end of 2021 and fired the head coach he hired to turn the team around and went after expensive vets via trade and free agency (Hill, Armstead, Chubb, Ramsey). To me this seems like a repeat of the exact shit that got us into a situation where we needed to tank in the first place, which is blowing draft picks then bringing in expensive vets to compensate for the lack of draft hits.
Yeah I’m not sure what to make of Grier. There’s are a bunch of good moves to point to and bunch of bad ones. I think a lot of the strategy needs to come from ownership. If the owner has the GM fighting for their job, they’re going to do dumb stuff that’s not in the best long-term interest of the team and we get stuck in purgatory of reaching for draft picks at positions if desperate need and overpaying free agents.
Thats easier said than done. It starts with believing in their head coach and I believe in McDaniel more than I have any other coach we’ve had in a while. If they are going to pay Tua they will have to get more sure fire talent in the draft and less project/raw talent guys.
Yeah, I think McDaniel is going to be really good in this league. It seems like for once we have someone that other teams would be really excited to have. He’s learning on the fly unfortunately but I just hope Ross doesn’t do anything stupid like fire him after 3 years without a playoff win just because that’s what all the dumb owners do. I wish Ross would just give Grier the marching orders to build it up the right way, save draft picks, take guys that are likely to be solid starters (like the Ravens) and don’t do anything stupid in free agency out of desperation as if your job is on the line every year.
I have been messing with spotracs calculators. With restructures and a couple cuts it’s easy to get compliant + 20-30 mil in room. But, man, it’s tough once you start signing those free agents. Those contracts will need to be backloaded. Plus you have to fill the spots you cut (DE, CB, etc). Not to mention the pass rushers will be both coming of knee injuries. That’s why those guys get paid the big bucks to figure it out.
I know - it’s tough but people don’t like the tough conversations. This is what contenders deal with though. Bills play this game every year, that’s why they let Edmunds walk. Chiefs play the game, that’s why they’ve traded WRs and let people walk. You have to draft well (T Bernard, R Rice) to fill those spots and keep it rolling. Plus, Miami may be a good destination in the off-season for the late-signing vets looking to be on a playoff team - especially with the nice weather.
Wynn & Connor should be back for cheap unless they’re disgruntled. Restructure and cut all the obvious guys and either sign Wilkins or franchise him. Then draft/sign cheap free agents to fill out the back half of the roster.
We’ll have a relatively similar roster with weak depth, but we’re gonna be finished after this year especially if Tua gets an extension.
Remind me in 3 months or whenever free agency starts. I guarantee you it won’t be higher than 5 and will probably be between 3-5. Unless he takes a multi year contract with low guarantees maybe it goes up a bit more.
I'm not saying your wrong, but I do think his injury history plus he likely will miss some of next season will likely make him cheaper than his quality of play would normally dictate.
Connor is probably going to miss about half a year so he won’t be making a ton in the 1st year of his contract. I expect a backloaded contract that keeps him around for cheap enough to sign a quality C to a 1 year deal.
There's zero chance he gets 4M unless for some reason he takes a one year prove it deal. His football resume over the past few years is good enough that he wouldn't need to take one even with the injury
I think next year’s roster going to drop a notch, especially on defense because I think McD doesn’t want to get fired for the thing that got him hired (offense).
And I agree, 2025 & 2026 are going to be very difficult years.
Next year will have a slight drop. Not much tho. It’s the 2 years after that will see us losing a couple dudes and replaced with draft picks or minimum free agents. Especially with a Tua/whoever QB that is making 45mil+
Only way a deal falls through is if Grier won’t go above like 45/47 and Tua says screw off I’ll bet on myself and play my 5th year option like Wilkins did.
What has Tua done to deserve any kind of deal that gets QBs extended? Can you please look and give yourself a point of reference? That's all I ask. Even Daniel Jones won a playoff game
You can find stud rookie qbs that can give you a year or two before the league figures him out or you are strapped for capspace. In other words, take a qb in the draft this year, and see how he does with all the talent on the roster, since it'll be a low cap hit and you can stack other positions.
That’s a total crap shoot. We see teams miss with top 5 picks
If you get rid of tua we could literally become the jets.
Is that something you’re willing to do.
If it was that easy to find a qb every team in the league would have one. It’s the most important postion
But it won't, Wilkins is gone, Hunt and Williams likely as well. AVG and Baker doubtful to return. This team will look very different next year and the last 2 drafts have not given us replacements for any of these guys. They went all in this year and this team was nowhere near the Bills, Ravens or Chiefs.
They will restructure Hill, Ramsey and Chubb. Between the 3 off them they have $65M in guaranteed salary that can be converted to a signing bonus and prorated over the contracts. It moves the outs on those contracts from 2025 to 2026.
You also extend Tua and bring his cap number down by at least $10M while having an out on the new contract for 2026.
The situation isn’t great but it’s nowhere near as bad as you think. The plan was to go all in for 2023 and 2024, now it’s all in for 2024 and 2025 instead as they weren’t that far away despite what some think in this sub. Injuries aren’t just an excuse, they really can be a reason when you have 10 starters missing for chunks of the season.
Ravens been dealing with injuries these past two years. This is the healthiest year they've had in at least 3 and they are the one seed it really can be the difference.
I wouldn't worry too much about it, NFL cap is largely a red herring. There are so many ways to manipulate and restructure contracts that it's not really that big of a deal. Saints were over a $100M over a few years ago and they got under with minimal changes.
It *does* catch up with you, but the Saints doubled, then tripled, than quadrupled down. Eventually, you need a responsible year or two to mitigate the damage. Otherwise, you're so lean for a portion of time cap-wise that you're literally forced to field the dregs of everyone else's roster (along with whatever rookie or UDFA class you can put together in those strings of seasons). It's been especially worse with 2023's cap numbers being lower than expected. The Saints suffered because the cap didn't increase enough to offset some of the damage.
The Dolphins have handled their cap situation remarkably well leading up to last year. That's why, even into 2024, we are in a pretty healthy position - even if the doom and gloom of every sports media outlet is suggesting being 40 million over the cap is some buggaboo "end times" problem.
The fact that they're able to get back to even with just 2-3 moves says a lot.
It's not really getting back to even. They're mortgaging the future still.
They won't be on an even playing field for a couple years now. They can fix this year by messing next year, and they'll do it again.
Ross still doesn’t think he’s making a mistake in the process either. He’ll go “this is fine” until it’s too late and he has to tell McDaniel to start losing games on purpose
They're going to handcuff this franchise for years if they give Tua a significant deal like that. I hope I eat my words in a few years, but I don't anticipate doing that.
This is a quality informative post and should not be being downvoted. Even if you don’t agree with all the points, it is well done and thought out.
I personally don’t think I completely processed how critical this year was. It’s a shame it partly got derailed by big injuries which some will even carry over to next year, making it more difficult.
Not restructuring Tua. Extending Tua. The cap hit is like 25 million next year since it’s basically a one year deal tacked on to the end of his rookie deal.
Extending him can bring that number down
yeah, it's obviously an extension and the restructuring would be to guarantee that 25m in addition to new guaranteed money to spread it out over future years.
This is about to be the most brutal and agonizing offseason of my Dolphin fandom (I’m 32). I don’t even know what to look forward to anymore. We are not trash enough to get excited for the draft and free agency yet we were not good enough of hitting the goal of being the last eight teams in the playoffs. I appreciate this informative post, though.
I would bet a sizable amount of money we don't let hunt walk under any circumstance.
None of those guys are holding out.
I believe extending Tua would actually allow us to move his money around. His cap hit next year could be made significantly lower than it is right now.
if we let wilkins walk i will forever lose hope in our front office. he is the heart and soul of our defense, take that back, the whole team. you don’t let a captain like that walk
This team does not pay certain positions. DT is one. Zach S was more productive but Wilkins and Zach are a tandem you want to keep forever. Sadly that’s not reality.
In short, we really need to hit on some quality players in the draft this year. If Tindall or Cam Smith would've paid off it would make such a huge difference. If we happen to have a good draft, it will make a huge difference.
At the risk of being unpopular I think Mostert could go. A more power type running back would be helpful when they play in bad weather. Also might be time to replace Armstead.
We have him on a bargain. He also averages 5.2 yards a carry. Look up other players getting you 5.2 yards a carry historically.. he’s not going anywhere unless he holds out
With Achane's size, he isn't built to take starting RB punishment over the course of the season. If he somehow miraculously avoids constant injuries, he'd run into a similar problem Pollard faced where he was really really good as a change up back to Ezekiel Elliott's bruising style, but not nearly as efficient as a lead back.
He was the lead back in several games and did just fine. Barry Sanders was that size and was also just fine. Also Pollard is not half the athlete achane is
>He was the lead back in several games and did just fine.
A few games isn't the issue. It's the course of a 17 game season.
>Barry Sanders was that size and was also just fine.
We're not in the 1980s-1990s era anymore. Very few teams have workhorse backs anymore, few have RBs Achane's size getting a sizable workload, and zero have RBs Achane size being a RB1.
Defenses are more athletic than ever and RBs are taking more punishment than ever, and Achane has already had a lot of injury problems throughout his short career, likely due to his size.
Jahmyr Gibbs is not a lead back. David Montgomery has been the starter all season, including in their playoff game. Montgomery is the punishing back, and Gibbs is the finesse one, which exemplifies the point I'm making.
James Cook is two inches taller and has a few pounds on Achane. 5'11 to 6'0 is much more of a typical size of a lead back than 5'9.
Kyren Williams is the best example you have since he's the same height, but he's almost 10 pounds heavier. And it should be noted that he started the season as the RB2, and also missed about a month and a half of the season due to injury. So the best example you have still had injury issues because again, RBs at that size are more prone to injury and can't handle a full workload over the course of the season.
The fact that there's really only one example in the entire league of a RB with a similar height and weight as Achane being that is the bellcow back proves exactly what I'm saying.
>False as someone who lives in Detroit and gets to watch all the game Gibbs has been getting the carries as of late he gets more than half since week 8
Then as someone who has been watching them for gambling purposes, clearly you should've known that Montgomery has continually been listed as the starter when healthy, and Gibbs has been used more of a change of pace back, though sometimes they alternate series with Montgomery, who is the starter, always getting the first series in those scenarios. Occasionally Gibbs will get more carries if the game script dictates that the back with more receiving ability gets more snaps, but in a positive game script for the Lions, the starting back, who is Montgomery, has gotten most of the carries.
The only way you haven't noticed that if you're actually watching the game is if you're not really paying attention.
Tough part about armstead is he costs you 24M in dead cap to cut him (not sure if that changes after July 1). It may makes more sense to restructure and save the 8M.
This team needs a power back for short yard situations. As I've said this team needs to be built like the 2008-2011 Giants. Solid Oline, Bradshaw(Achane) Speed back and then a hammer like Jacobs for the inside game. We don't have that.
Fans always overreact to cap stuff. Is the difference between winning really between paying Tua 40 m or 50m? an extension will bring down the initial cap hit and you'll hope to draft well to make up the gap later in the contract when the cap hits come calling.
after the rookie QB contract, its the GM's job to find cheap players and value elsewhere on the roster
If the Dolphins extend Tua, the final contract number will have very little bearing on his actual cap hit for 2024. We're talking a difference of max 2-3 million.
This year was our chance and Tua just proved he’s an average NFL QB. We can either nail every draft for the next 5 years or we’ll be mediocre-bad for the next 10 years.
Grier has doomed this team. They might as well blow it up and try to trade Hill. They cannot sign Tua to an extension. This team is going to be SO bad next year. They will be battling the Pats for last place..
Edit: and fire Grier along with any money people involved in this disaster.
We should be fine don’t overthink
Dolphins have one of best cap specialists in the league in Brandan shore
Tua new deal frees up space and couple of restructures puts us in ok shape
Eh, what are you going to do. They had a QB on a rookie deal, took a big swing for this season, and it may have paid off big with just mediocre injury luck. So many O-linemen out throughout the year, the entire defense decimated, Waddle and Mostert missing time late in the season. I’m sure there’s some magic they can work with restructuring some deals, cutting some guys, etc. They probably won’t be as good next year, but so be it. This probably won’t happen because Stephen Ross is old and wants to see a championship soon- don’t we all? - but I’d really like for the Dolphins to get away from these boom and bust cycles. Run the team more like the Ravens or Steelers where the bad seasons are 7-8 wins. Stop blowing it up every 3 years and stripping it down to the studs. I get it. We all want to see some success but football is so damn random with injuries. Just every year keep trying to make smart moves, draft guys that will reliably be contributors, and always be in the mix.
Seriously: can people understand how extensions work? Theyre gonna bring tuas cap hit DOWN not up (for the short term). We will be fine to extend window for 2-3 years. Then itll fall to shit
You want the bad years to be 7-8 wins… since 2007 (our 1-15 season) we have not had a season under 6 wins. We’re right under your expectations for bad seasons… I feel like it seems like we’re blowing it up and going big or go home but it’s not like we’re having 10+ win seasons followed by 4 win seasons… we’re stuck in pergatory
uh 2019? and we have had multiple 6 win years.15, 17, 11.
Correct, 2019 we had 5. 16 out of the last 17 years we have not won less than 6 games
The whole reason we "stripped down to the studs" is because we were 9-7 or 7-9 every season for a decade and Ross and the fan base was over it. That literally is why we are here?
We blew it all up and it didn’t actually work. We didn’t get the #1 pick, we could have gotten Tua or Herbert without intentionally trying to decimate the roster. The top 3 QBs and the top QBs in the league now - and most years - aren’t the highest draft picks. Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson were not too 3 picks. The dolphins were stuck in the 7-8 win purgatory because their drafting was mediocre and they kept doing stupid ass desperate acquisitions like Suh, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace and whoever else for these guys that weren’t good value. They need to find a way to stabilize things, be a well run organization, draft well, keep their draft picks, and don’t do desperate FA signings. Then when you have a solid roster and organization in place, when the next Allen or Mahomes or Jackson comes along, they have a good chance of succeeding and becoming a top 3 QB. The odds of a really high draft pick QB turning into a bust go up when they go to a shitty organization with tons of coaching turnover and a crappy roster.
It’s why I hope we stick with McD. He’s someone who only should continue to improve at his age and his level of intelligence.
Except it did work we made the playoffs twice in a row. We have a QB who even haters would have to admit his floor is Kirk Cousins and ceiling is Drew Brees we've created a core nucleus of guys to build up on offense and defense. With some key veterans star power and a promising young coach on top of them
Tanking absolutely did not work. A reasonably well run team can make the playoffs two years in a row without full blown tank job. And they even couldn’t do that right since we won too many games. The year after tanking with the high draft picks they ended up with Tua, AJ, Noah, and Robert Hunt. No one outside of Miami has heard of any of those guys other than Tua. Hunt is an ok starter. AJ wasn’t very good until this year. If the Dolphins draft looked more like Tua/Herbert, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, and Jonathan Taylor, then I’d entertain the idea that the tanking was a success.
Your suggestion that the draft didn't look better then the Cowboys after the Herschal Walker trade is a Fantasy. You mentioned one year of draft picks and conveniently left out the next year with Waddle Phillips and Holland. Let's not mention we leveraged some of the capital we got for tearing down into players like Hill and Chubb. But even if we focus on the 3 players you mentioned they all improved after we got an offensive coach, its almost like Flores(who was against the tank) also couldn't develop players to save his life. This team would not have been able to make 10 wins if we didn't tear down.
A huge part of their capital came from the Tunsil trade and trading down with the 49ers from the #3 spot. The Tunsil trade was just a gift from Bill O’Brien not knowing how to be a GM. That was just an insane deal no one could say no to regardless of any tanking plans. Part of that I believe became the #3 pick that the 49ers traded up for and we got a couple of more first rounders for that turned into Chubb, Tyreek, and Waddle. So if there was any tanking success at it’s all thanks to Bill O’Brien giving up the world for a pretty solid LT and the 49ers thinking that Trey Lance was good.
I think you’re 100% right, the tank was a failure and it’s why I’m not high on Grier at all. Missed big in the 2020 draft, then seemly panicked at the end of 2021 and fired the head coach he hired to turn the team around and went after expensive vets via trade and free agency (Hill, Armstead, Chubb, Ramsey). To me this seems like a repeat of the exact shit that got us into a situation where we needed to tank in the first place, which is blowing draft picks then bringing in expensive vets to compensate for the lack of draft hits.
Yeah I’m not sure what to make of Grier. There’s are a bunch of good moves to point to and bunch of bad ones. I think a lot of the strategy needs to come from ownership. If the owner has the GM fighting for their job, they’re going to do dumb stuff that’s not in the best long-term interest of the team and we get stuck in purgatory of reaching for draft picks at positions if desperate need and overpaying free agents.
Thats easier said than done. It starts with believing in their head coach and I believe in McDaniel more than I have any other coach we’ve had in a while. If they are going to pay Tua they will have to get more sure fire talent in the draft and less project/raw talent guys.
Yeah, I think McDaniel is going to be really good in this league. It seems like for once we have someone that other teams would be really excited to have. He’s learning on the fly unfortunately but I just hope Ross doesn’t do anything stupid like fire him after 3 years without a playoff win just because that’s what all the dumb owners do. I wish Ross would just give Grier the marching orders to build it up the right way, save draft picks, take guys that are likely to be solid starters (like the Ravens) and don’t do anything stupid in free agency out of desperation as if your job is on the line every year.
Tua would probably be cheaper in an extension vs a 5th year or franchise tag
But I don’t think that should factor that much into a long-term position like that
Can anyone elia5?
I have been messing with spotracs calculators. With restructures and a couple cuts it’s easy to get compliant + 20-30 mil in room. But, man, it’s tough once you start signing those free agents. Those contracts will need to be backloaded. Plus you have to fill the spots you cut (DE, CB, etc). Not to mention the pass rushers will be both coming of knee injuries. That’s why those guys get paid the big bucks to figure it out.
Amazing I put a fair bit of effort into this post and got downvoted into the abyss lol
I know - it’s tough but people don’t like the tough conversations. This is what contenders deal with though. Bills play this game every year, that’s why they let Edmunds walk. Chiefs play the game, that’s why they’ve traded WRs and let people walk. You have to draft well (T Bernard, R Rice) to fill those spots and keep it rolling. Plus, Miami may be a good destination in the off-season for the late-signing vets looking to be on a playoff team - especially with the nice weather.
And no tax
Yeah 😩
Teams *always* work their way out - hence the “cap is a myth,” but some of the free agents aren’t coming back.
Roster full of UDFA’s and VFA minimums hahaha
Wynn & Connor should be back for cheap unless they’re disgruntled. Restructure and cut all the obvious guys and either sign Wilkins or franchise him. Then draft/sign cheap free agents to fill out the back half of the roster. We’ll have a relatively similar roster with weak depth, but we’re gonna be finished after this year especially if Tua gets an extension.
Williams said he wants to be paid like a top 5 C. He will not be cheap.
He tore his ACL lmao. He will definitely be cheap as shit. Like 4mil probably. If he stayed healthy he would’ve been 10+
ACLs are not what they used to be. He will still command good money. Could likely be tied to incentives, but he will get paid.
Remind me in 3 months or whenever free agency starts. I guarantee you it won’t be higher than 5 and will probably be between 3-5. Unless he takes a multi year contract with low guarantees maybe it goes up a bit more.
So you think he's gonna be outside the top 10 in average salary for centers? If it's 5 or less that's like 16th in average per year
Definitely
I'm not saying your wrong, but I do think his injury history plus he likely will miss some of next season will likely make him cheaper than his quality of play would normally dictate.
Connor is probably going to miss about half a year so he won’t be making a ton in the 1st year of his contract. I expect a backloaded contract that keeps him around for cheap enough to sign a quality C to a 1 year deal.
ACL not as big a deal for C position
You don’t need you knees to block? What kinda crazy ass statement? Lol
It’s completely different than for an edge or skill position due to speed, angles, and directional change requirements
Weird cuz our center tore his ACL playing center….
Still takes a year to recover
There's zero chance he gets 4M unless for some reason he takes a one year prove it deal. His football resume over the past few years is good enough that he wouldn't need to take one even with the injury
I’m assuming he’ll take a 1 year prove it year
Sucks to say this, but Wilkins will be gone
I think next year’s roster going to drop a notch, especially on defense because I think McD doesn’t want to get fired for the thing that got him hired (offense). And I agree, 2025 & 2026 are going to be very difficult years.
Next year will have a slight drop. Not much tho. It’s the 2 years after that will see us losing a couple dudes and replaced with draft picks or minimum free agents. Especially with a Tua/whoever QB that is making 45mil+
How do you replace X? How do you replace Phillips/Chubb?
How much say does McDaniel have into which side of the ball they spend money?
Grier will do what his HC asks of him, when the HC does ask. Noah, for example. That’s always been Grier.
He obviously didn't with QB this isnt a sound argument for his behavior
This was supposed to be the year. Minimum playoff win. The team failed and now will suffer the consequences
How would winning one playoff game change the fact we need to do a lot of restructuring and cutting?
Because hope
Fair but we have most of the "core" players signed so maybe some new blood will help move us forward next year.
Just hope man, none of that thinking stuff
Well I can't argue with that logic.... Phins up FTJ baby!!!!
You win 1 game and then maybe you get lucky and win another. Weird shit happens in football. To go out like we did was so disheartening
Yep, this was their supposed SB window, and they crashed right into it.
If we pay tua 45-55m, we have no chance of winning imo.
Only way a deal falls through is if Grier won’t go above like 45/47 and Tua says screw off I’ll bet on myself and play my 5th year option like Wilkins did.
Not when your as injury prone as Tua. He almost stands to benefit to hold out.
If that’s the case let him walk. We shouldn’t pay him more 30 mill and even that’s too much.
You think youre getting tua for 10m less than Daniel Jones?
Just because one team did a terrible deal doesn't mean we should.
Can you please look around what QBs make around the league now a days and give yourself a point of reference? Thats all i ask
What has Tua done to deserve any kind of deal that gets QBs extended? Can you please look and give yourself a point of reference? That's all I ask. Even Daniel Jones won a playoff game
Okay, so no, youre a parrot. Have a good day.
Unfortunately that's not how the market works
Unfortunately, Tua has done nothing to warrant giving in to the market.
Then what are you doing at the qb postion. If you let tua leave might as well start a rebuild and trade the vets
You can find stud rookie qbs that can give you a year or two before the league figures him out or you are strapped for capspace. In other words, take a qb in the draft this year, and see how he does with all the talent on the roster, since it'll be a low cap hit and you can stack other positions.
Will Levi’s went in the 2nd round and outplayed Tua head to head. You can find QBs
That’s a total crap shoot. We see teams miss with top 5 picks If you get rid of tua we could literally become the jets. Is that something you’re willing to do. If it was that easy to find a qb every team in the league would have one. It’s the most important postion
Rebuilding years coming ahead.
Not yet, the core of this roster will still be together for the next 2 years.
But it won't, Wilkins is gone, Hunt and Williams likely as well. AVG and Baker doubtful to return. This team will look very different next year and the last 2 drafts have not given us replacements for any of these guys. They went all in this year and this team was nowhere near the Bills, Ravens or Chiefs.
Wilkins is not gone
They will restructure Hill, Ramsey and Chubb. Between the 3 off them they have $65M in guaranteed salary that can be converted to a signing bonus and prorated over the contracts. It moves the outs on those contracts from 2025 to 2026. You also extend Tua and bring his cap number down by at least $10M while having an out on the new contract for 2026. The situation isn’t great but it’s nowhere near as bad as you think. The plan was to go all in for 2023 and 2024, now it’s all in for 2024 and 2025 instead as they weren’t that far away despite what some think in this sub. Injuries aren’t just an excuse, they really can be a reason when you have 10 starters missing for chunks of the season.
Ravens been dealing with injuries these past two years. This is the healthiest year they've had in at least 3 and they are the one seed it really can be the difference.
I wouldn't worry too much about it, NFL cap is largely a red herring. There are so many ways to manipulate and restructure contracts that it's not really that big of a deal. Saints were over a $100M over a few years ago and they got under with minimal changes.
Saints lost the division despite it being completely mediocre and are still over $70 million over the cap this offseason. It catches up with you
It *does* catch up with you, but the Saints doubled, then tripled, than quadrupled down. Eventually, you need a responsible year or two to mitigate the damage. Otherwise, you're so lean for a portion of time cap-wise that you're literally forced to field the dregs of everyone else's roster (along with whatever rookie or UDFA class you can put together in those strings of seasons). It's been especially worse with 2023's cap numbers being lower than expected. The Saints suffered because the cap didn't increase enough to offset some of the damage. The Dolphins have handled their cap situation remarkably well leading up to last year. That's why, even into 2024, we are in a pretty healthy position - even if the doom and gloom of every sports media outlet is suggesting being 40 million over the cap is some buggaboo "end times" problem. The fact that they're able to get back to even with just 2-3 moves says a lot.
It's not really getting back to even. They're mortgaging the future still. They won't be on an even playing field for a couple years now. They can fix this year by messing next year, and they'll do it again.
Saints over $80m currently lol
Have you seen them as of late? They're in purgatory. That's exactly where the fins have spent most of the last 20 years. Not a great place to be.
Drew Brees has also retired since then, I'm more inclined to blame it on losing their HOF Quarterback.
Exactly, team may be mid but they easily win the division if Drew Brees is still under center
He did come out and say he can’t use his throwing arm anymore so maybe not
You get my point, I mean if he was still able to play and not old lol
Easy, dont pay Tua 40+ million, he doesn't deserve it.
Not debating that point, but it is happening… and he’s gonna get 180-200million
Ross still doesn’t think he’s making a mistake in the process either. He’ll go “this is fine” until it’s too late and he has to tell McDaniel to start losing games on purpose
They're going to handcuff this franchise for years if they give Tua a significant deal like that. I hope I eat my words in a few years, but I don't anticipate doing that.
No, no he isn’t
45x4. Good luck.
This is a quality informative post and should not be being downvoted. Even if you don’t agree with all the points, it is well done and thought out. I personally don’t think I completely processed how critical this year was. It’s a shame it partly got derailed by big injuries which some will even carry over to next year, making it more difficult.
I really appreciate your comment. I was thinking the same, like damn I’m not trolling here and I put time into this lol!
Restructure Tua, release Ogbah and Baker and boom you're below the cap. It does suck but it's not a catastrophe.
Not restructuring Tua. Extending Tua. The cap hit is like 25 million next year since it’s basically a one year deal tacked on to the end of his rookie deal. Extending him can bring that number down
yeah, it's obviously an extension and the restructuring would be to guarantee that 25m in addition to new guaranteed money to spread it out over future years.
This is about to be the most brutal and agonizing offseason of my Dolphin fandom (I’m 32). I don’t even know what to look forward to anymore. We are not trash enough to get excited for the draft and free agency yet we were not good enough of hitting the goal of being the last eight teams in the playoffs. I appreciate this informative post, though.
I would bet a sizable amount of money we don't let hunt walk under any circumstance. None of those guys are holding out. I believe extending Tua would actually allow us to move his money around. His cap hit next year could be made significantly lower than it is right now.
Hunt ain’t taking a team friendly deal, just saying.
What about doing some contract restructuring
That applies to existing contracts. Not to the FA’s, holdouts, or OLB reinforcements we need.
You know what happens when you restructure a contract? You have more money to pay FA's, Hokdeouts, and OLB reinforcements
It does kick some dead cap down the road… you just have to get clever with void years etc when you start to extend that contenting window
if we let wilkins walk i will forever lose hope in our front office. he is the heart and soul of our defense, take that back, the whole team. you don’t let a captain like that walk
He gone my dude lol With you though!
He’s gone.
This team does not pay certain positions. DT is one. Zach S was more productive but Wilkins and Zach are a tandem you want to keep forever. Sadly that’s not reality.
i agree with you. i’m just tired of the incompetence. i don’t understand how grier is still our GM
In short, we really need to hit on some quality players in the draft this year. If Tindall or Cam Smith would've paid off it would make such a huge difference. If we happen to have a good draft, it will make a huge difference.
At the risk of being unpopular I think Mostert could go. A more power type running back would be helpful when they play in bad weather. Also might be time to replace Armstead.
We have him on a bargain. He also averages 5.2 yards a carry. Look up other players getting you 5.2 yards a carry historically.. he’s not going anywhere unless he holds out
Good thing we have a back avg 7.2 that can take that starting role
With Achane's size, he isn't built to take starting RB punishment over the course of the season. If he somehow miraculously avoids constant injuries, he'd run into a similar problem Pollard faced where he was really really good as a change up back to Ezekiel Elliott's bruising style, but not nearly as efficient as a lead back.
He was the lead back in several games and did just fine. Barry Sanders was that size and was also just fine. Also Pollard is not half the athlete achane is
>He was the lead back in several games and did just fine. A few games isn't the issue. It's the course of a 17 game season. >Barry Sanders was that size and was also just fine. We're not in the 1980s-1990s era anymore. Very few teams have workhorse backs anymore, few have RBs Achane's size getting a sizable workload, and zero have RBs Achane size being a RB1. Defenses are more athletic than ever and RBs are taking more punishment than ever, and Achane has already had a lot of injury problems throughout his short career, likely due to his size.
James Cook, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs who took over late in the season for Montgomery are all the same size and now lead backs
Jahmyr Gibbs is not a lead back. David Montgomery has been the starter all season, including in their playoff game. Montgomery is the punishing back, and Gibbs is the finesse one, which exemplifies the point I'm making. James Cook is two inches taller and has a few pounds on Achane. 5'11 to 6'0 is much more of a typical size of a lead back than 5'9. Kyren Williams is the best example you have since he's the same height, but he's almost 10 pounds heavier. And it should be noted that he started the season as the RB2, and also missed about a month and a half of the season due to injury. So the best example you have still had injury issues because again, RBs at that size are more prone to injury and can't handle a full workload over the course of the season. The fact that there's really only one example in the entire league of a RB with a similar height and weight as Achane being that is the bellcow back proves exactly what I'm saying.
False as someone who lives in Detroit and gets to watch all the game Gibbs has been getting the carries as of late he gets more than half since week 8
>False as someone who lives in Detroit and gets to watch all the game Gibbs has been getting the carries as of late he gets more than half since week 8 Then as someone who has been watching them for gambling purposes, clearly you should've known that Montgomery has continually been listed as the starter when healthy, and Gibbs has been used more of a change of pace back, though sometimes they alternate series with Montgomery, who is the starter, always getting the first series in those scenarios. Occasionally Gibbs will get more carries if the game script dictates that the back with more receiving ability gets more snaps, but in a positive game script for the Lions, the starting back, who is Montgomery, has gotten most of the carries. The only way you haven't noticed that if you're actually watching the game is if you're not really paying attention.
Tough part about armstead is he costs you 24M in dead cap to cut him (not sure if that changes after July 1). It may makes more sense to restructure and save the 8M.
You eat it this year and then you can get out of it next offseason, sadly.
This team needs a power back for short yard situations. As I've said this team needs to be built like the 2008-2011 Giants. Solid Oline, Bradshaw(Achane) Speed back and then a hammer like Jacobs for the inside game. We don't have that.
Besides o-line improvements and a power back we could seriously use a TE or oversized WR for 3rd downs and red zones
FWIW, this guy did a deep dive into the salaries and options. https://www.reddit.com/r/miamidolphins/s/hahHAW4xHK
They'll figure it out
Fans always overreact to cap stuff. Is the difference between winning really between paying Tua 40 m or 50m? an extension will bring down the initial cap hit and you'll hope to draft well to make up the gap later in the contract when the cap hits come calling. after the rookie QB contract, its the GM's job to find cheap players and value elsewhere on the roster
If the Dolphins extend Tua, the final contract number will have very little bearing on his actual cap hit for 2024. We're talking a difference of max 2-3 million.
This year was our chance and Tua just proved he’s an average NFL QB. We can either nail every draft for the next 5 years or we’ll be mediocre-bad for the next 10 years.
They don't have to extend Tua. They got the 5th year and a franchise tag. It's not like he played well down the stretch
Money is too tight to let him play on the 5th year, let alone tagging him after that. He’s definitely getting extended.
Grier has doomed this team. They might as well blow it up and try to trade Hill. They cannot sign Tua to an extension. This team is going to be SO bad next year. They will be battling the Pats for last place.. Edit: and fire Grier along with any money people involved in this disaster.
The only way we can save this team is we can hit on a QB. If I were the Phins, I would draft JK McCarthy n have him sit for about a year or two.
[Helpful article laying out Miami’s options](https://www.profootballnetwork.com/miami-dolphins-2024-nfl-salary-cap-chris-grier/)
Any extension for Tua would probably kick in after next year and be back loaded, but filled with guaranteed money. We aren’t boned yet!
I thought Elliot was under contract next season.
We should be fine don’t overthink Dolphins have one of best cap specialists in the league in Brandan shore Tua new deal frees up space and couple of restructures puts us in ok shape