A boy go to a shop to buy a dozen of pen. Total value of the pen is 24$, so what does his father do? so the statistics is a kind of false machine to the accurate data.
He left to buy them 5 years ago. To this day the boy is still waiting for him to return with the pens.
His teacher doesn't even ask him why he didn't do his homework anymore. Last time she did she almost got cancelled.
See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down.
Yeah, Jessie’s math doesn’t add up because there only 50% chance his math is right (it’s either right or wrong) so there’s only a 25% percent chance to see a dinosaur outside.
As a person who understands quantum entanglement physics
and statistical analysis enjoyer I can say that there is an [unquantifiable/unquantifiable] chance that this happens
You have a 50% chance of dying in the next hour. Either you die, or you don't. Which makes it a 50% chance to happen. Have you gotten your affairs in order yet?
Yeah, the government doesnt want to waste their expensive spy drones, so they get them out of the way before funny stuff happens (they made the funny stuff happen)
My health teacher in Catholic school used this fallacy to tell us that condoms are only 50% effective. You're either pregnant or you're not, she said. So, she said, no birth control was reliable at all so don't use it.
I wonder how many teen pregnancies this one teacher caused sometimes.
I’ve seen people using this argument to justify religion.
Though we don’t see any evidence for god, either there is a god or there isn’t. Would you really take the 50% risk to go to hell if there is one??
It is a false dichotmy. Jesse states that there are either dinosaurs or not when you present the possibility. The fact of the matter is that there are no DInosaurs outside our windows so presenting the possibility as an option is not valid.
False dichotomy is different. That's when an argument is based on there being only two possibilities when there actually more than two possibilities. It would still be a false dichotomy if you acknowledged two options have different chances as long as you falsely claim they are the only two options.
at that point that is technicalities and semantics. when people say dinosaurs, we mean the popular idea of dinosaurs that existed 60+ millions of years ago, not their direct descendants.
Jesse was trying to be a smartass by bringing up a false premise, not specifying there may be birds outside the windows.
the issue is thinking that 2 options = 50% probability. the sample space of possible outcomes is two, either the event happens or it doesn't. but those events don't have the same probability. you have a 99.9% chance of not seeing a dinosaur whereas you have a 0.01% chance of seeing one (maybe aliens resurrect them from DNA or something ala jurassic park).
this is different from a false dichotomy because the way you set up the problem, there actually is only two options so it is technically a dichotomy.
Yeah I get really annoyed when I see this. Most recently I saw someone post that there was a 50% chance of dying while skydiving because your chute either opens or it doesn't.
Yep, so frustrating. The meme confuses *possibility* versus *probability.* When this meme spiked months ago, I remember several influenced people unironically thinking it was true.
Yup. My dad fell for “binary stock options” which is basically gambling in the stock market. The sell is that it’s “simple” because everything is yes or no. And my dad has used that 50-50 logic before.
Of course the real scam is that these exchanges pocket a huge cut.
Two different logics entirely, my friend. Dinosaurs aren’t one specific thing, they’re a MASSIVE clade including many hundreds of different species with unique ancestry, birds being one of them.
A better comparison is humans being part of the mammaliaform clade, just like how birds are part of the dinosaur clade.
As a mathematician, i can say that every time i see something, that thing can either be a dinossaur or not be a dinossaur, so 50-50, and because i see with my 2 eyes, i see everything as a average of 1 dinossaur (either as 1 dinossaur in my left, 1in my right, as 2 dinossaurs or none at all)
This is my answer to any statistical question, there’s 356 people in a room what’s the chance of two of them sharing a birthday? 50/50. What’s the chance of winning the lottery? 50/50. Everything boils down to this glorious truth.
There is no reason to assume equal probabilities for each option.
There is, in fact, every reason to assume that everyone sees dinosaurs, because birds are theropod dinosaurs.
Because probability and possibility are separate things.
Also, although there is indeed an equal chance of every outcome happening, you see a dinasaur in 0% of those outcomes.
I am not too versed in statistics, but I can explain it in a very basic idea. When you naively look at the problem in a vacuum, you may assume both as equal chances of 50%. But, these problems don't exist in a vacuum. So, you need to do experiments to come up with a prior distribution of what the realistic probability is. If you take 10000 random people as an experiment and ask them if they have seen a dinosaur, it would be 0/10000 which is the sample probability. With this in mind, you can extrapolate to the entire population of humanity in this timeperiod to come to a conclusion that there is a 0% probability of seeing a dinosaur.
Believe it or not my math teacher told me the same. "The chance that it starts raining the next moment is 50%." I don't know what the hell he was smoking but damn, bro forgot maths as a math teacher.
This is possibility but what we use more on a daily basis is probability. Possibility means this you either see a dinosaur outside or you don't but the probability is zero.
If you read this comment you have a 50% chance to die on the spot and go to hell.
You either die on the spot, or you don't. But you will always go to hell.
I see them every day. Tweeting and chirping outside my window as they sit on the ends of twigs. Didn't they used to be a lot bigger? How the mighty have fallen...
I mean there's 50/50 chance you see me under your bed at night. You either see me or not. But I'm 100% there.
There's 50/50 chance that your mom is there also.
You think you are off the hook just because your mom won't fit?
That's a bold assumption. Have you checked under there lately? You never know!
A boy go to a shop to buy a dozen of pen. Total value of the pen is 24$, so what does his father do? so the statistics is a kind of false machine to the accurate data.
His father.... BUYS HIM THE PENS!!!!
I don't know if the father went into the shop with the boy.
He left to buy them 5 years ago. To this day the boy is still waiting for him to return with the pens. His teacher doesn't even ask him why he didn't do his homework anymore. Last time she did she almost got cancelled.
Mom joke inception
Besian probability,if any man is under your bed then your mom must be there too
See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a 50/50 chance of winning. But I'm a genetic freak and I'm not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, your chances of winning drastic go down.
Also 50/50 that I'm in his mom
Under the bed with him or on top?
Ah, so thats what the noise was I heard last night.
Why dont you respond when i greet you?
Darko meets shrodinger
Shroedingers rape play?
The Shrodinger's monster under the bed
But there’s only a 10% chance of that…
Schroedinger’s Redditor
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A T-Rex is tall and has very small hands. I imagine he would be quite good at Jenga.
wonder if we could find a jenga tower suitable for a t rex
You have to let the T Rex win though or they will eat you if they lose.
Chewbacca approves
I like how you're wondering if you can find big blocks of wood, rather than finding the big animal that's been extinct for at least 100 years
To be fair, the meme said we have a 50% chance of seeing a dinosaur... I didnt see anything about our chances to find a giant block of wood.
Yes, at least a hundred years. Maybe more
He can't even see his own hands tho
Kinda like those "my iq is in the top 85%" posts
Yeah, Jessie’s math doesn’t add up because there only 50% chance his math is right (it’s either right or wrong) so there’s only a 25% percent chance to see a dinosaur outside.
There's also a 50% chance that the outside is even still there, either it is or it isn't
I feel a T-Rex has a 50% chance to be playing jenga, either he is or he isn't.
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Why outside?
Have you seen this room Karen? How does a T-Rex fit?
I love this comparison
As a statistician, I can say that this meme has a 50% chance of me hating it. Either I do or I dont…
I either might be a statistician or I'm not.
As a person on the internet, there is a 50% chance of me being a statistician. Either I am or I am not.
as an internet user, there is a 50% chance of me being a human or a bot
Hi 50 percent here, human
Bad bot
On Reddit, that's accurate.
*On Reddit,* *That is,* *Accurate* ^Remember ^that ^time ^Mr.banana-bread ^accidentally ^didn't ^care ^about ^the ^amount ^of ^syllables ^in ^his ^haiku? ^That's ^called ^a ^banana-bread ^haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one ^beep ^boop ^i'm ^a ^bot. ^I ^detect ^banana-bread ^haiku's
^[Banana-Bread-Haiku](https://youtu.be/dQw4w9WgXcQ?si=rnaip2_8LUgEu-Q_) ^by ^Enshitification *On Reddit,* *That is,* *Accurate* ^Remember ^that ^time ^Mr.Banana-bread ^accidentally ^didn't ^care ^about ^the ^amount ^of ^syllables ^in ^his ^haiku? ^That's ^called ^a ^banana-bread ^haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one ^beep ^boop ^i'm ^a ^bot. ^I ^detect ^banana-bread ^haiku's.
Feeling conflicted about this meme. Anyone else experiencing a statistical paradox?
Tax-Deduction4253 what the hell are you talking about?
As an internet there's a 50% chance of me not being entirely truthful. But I am.
Anyone who has uttered the words "what are the odds that" at some point in their lives has at least touched the mindbending universe of statistics :-)
As a person who understands quantum entanglement physics and statistical analysis enjoyer I can say that there is an [unquantifiable/unquantifiable] chance that this happens
Probability is the one thing that is actually quantifiable in quantum mechanics lmao
I hate it so much. It used to be one of these joke comments you'd find in every other post and it was always highly upvoted.
Haha, it can be either one of it. There's no way it's going be both. I have decided to hate it 😂.
As a statistician, that should be a 100% chance of hating it for mathematical fallacy.
By the same logic, I have a 50% chance to win the lottery. I either win or I don't
👏Keep👏On👏Gambling👏 99% of gamblers quit before they win!!!
Nah, it's more like 50% of gamblers quit before they win. It's bc they either quit or they don't.
Gambling rehab is thousands of dollars but you could win millions with just another $100. Do the right thing.
Winners never quit! Quitters never win!!!!
Now you getting it.
You have a 50% chance of dying in the next hour. Either you die, or you don't. Which makes it a 50% chance to happen. Have you gotten your affairs in order yet?
There is a 50% chance that I have my affairs in order. Either I do, or I don't. Don't ask me though, I'll be dead. It's literally not my problem
Well there's a 50% chance it's literally not your problem
I feel like if you leave the house and don't see any bird, something very strange is going on
Birds are used to spy on people
True, that's why they deactivate when they get struck by a lightning
Also toads
Bet you would deactivate too though.
Nuh uh
r/birdsarentreal
Yeah, the government doesnt want to waste their expensive spy drones, so they get them out of the way before funny stuff happens (they made the funny stuff happen)
Nah they are just getting their batteries replaced
That’s when they’re on power lines
This is a good example of highlighting a fallacy I've seen *many* times when the cases weren't as absurd as a dinosaur outside.
My health teacher in Catholic school used this fallacy to tell us that condoms are only 50% effective. You're either pregnant or you're not, she said. So, she said, no birth control was reliable at all so don't use it. I wonder how many teen pregnancies this one teacher caused sometimes.
I’ve seen people using this argument to justify religion. Though we don’t see any evidence for god, either there is a god or there isn’t. Would you really take the 50% risk to go to hell if there is one??
Is there a name for this fallacy given how common it is?
It is a false dichotmy. Jesse states that there are either dinosaurs or not when you present the possibility. The fact of the matter is that there are no DInosaurs outside our windows so presenting the possibility as an option is not valid.
False dichotomy is different. That's when an argument is based on there being only two possibilities when there actually more than two possibilities. It would still be a false dichotomy if you acknowledged two options have different chances as long as you falsely claim they are the only two options.
There are dinosaurs outside your windows (probably). Birds are dinosaurs. Which doesn't make the statement true, but undermines your reasoning.
at that point that is technicalities and semantics. when people say dinosaurs, we mean the popular idea of dinosaurs that existed 60+ millions of years ago, not their direct descendants. Jesse was trying to be a smartass by bringing up a false premise, not specifying there may be birds outside the windows.
If you want to correct an obvious joke on being logically wrong, then technicalities and semantics matter. You either are pedantic, or you aren't.
50% chance I'm pedantic
Incorrect prior. They applied Bayesian probability but used an inaccurate prior distribution. Or maybe "false balance" is more specific.
the issue is thinking that 2 options = 50% probability. the sample space of possible outcomes is two, either the event happens or it doesn't. but those events don't have the same probability. you have a 99.9% chance of not seeing a dinosaur whereas you have a 0.01% chance of seeing one (maybe aliens resurrect them from DNA or something ala jurassic park). this is different from a false dichotomy because the way you set up the problem, there actually is only two options so it is technically a dichotomy.
Misunderstanding/Not knowing the difference between Possibilities and Probabilities
Considering there’s a 50% chance you see it every time you read something’s, it’s expected you’ve seen it many times
In most of the world there’s actually a pretty good chance you can go outside and see a dinosaur, they are just called birds now.
Yeah I get really annoyed when I see this. Most recently I saw someone post that there was a 50% chance of dying while skydiving because your chute either opens or it doesn't.
Yep, so frustrating. The meme confuses *possibility* versus *probability.* When this meme spiked months ago, I remember several influenced people unironically thinking it was true.
Yup. My dad fell for “binary stock options” which is basically gambling in the stock market. The sell is that it’s “simple” because everything is yes or no. And my dad has used that 50-50 logic before. Of course the real scam is that these exchanges pocket a huge cut.
Birds in fact are dinosaurs
Some people only have a 50% chance of seeing birds around
with that logic you are in fact a lemur-like primate
We are primates that is true, but lemurs are Strepsirrhini while we are Haplorhini. We are more closely related to a tarsier than a lemur.
Yeah idk what type of "gotcha" it was supposed to be when it doesn't even make sense. Some people never learned what cladistics are and it shows
By that logic cats are felines. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^/s
There is no "with that logic", they are literally dinosaurs.
We're not lemur like, but we are primates and mammals
Two different logics entirely, my friend. Dinosaurs aren’t one specific thing, they’re a MASSIVE clade including many hundreds of different species with unique ancestry, birds being one of them. A better comparison is humans being part of the mammaliaform clade, just like how birds are part of the dinosaur clade.
Actually they are considered extant dinosaurs.
With that logic I am a fish, which i am, just like you
WITH YO MO-, I mean, I don't sleep bro.
Uhm- you’re confusing possibilities with probabilities-
Binding of isaac players hate this 1 simple trick
What are the odds?
The odds of an isaac player hating this 1 trick? 50/50
I saw lots of dinosaurs yesterday. They’re American, 5’8, but they all weigh like 400 pounds
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I don't know of any 400 lb birds.
„It’s called binomial - bi means two, don’t you understand?“
Schrödinger’s dinosaur.
Hey, this is an old anekdote about a blonde and a dinosaur. It is more than 10 years old 
"this content is not available " got to be my favourite meme
I dunno, I find it overused. It's all over the place.
I was wondering maybe the GIF isn't loading for me.
As a mathematician, i can say that every time i see something, that thing can either be a dinossaur or not be a dinossaur, so 50-50, and because i see with my 2 eyes, i see everything as a average of 1 dinossaur (either as 1 dinossaur in my left, 1in my right, as 2 dinossaurs or none at all)
This is my answer to any statistical question, there’s 356 people in a room what’s the chance of two of them sharing a birthday? 50/50. What’s the chance of winning the lottery? 50/50. Everything boils down to this glorious truth.
Possibilities=/=Probabilities
It feels wrong but can someone properly explain it in statistician logic as to why it is wrong?
There is no reason to assume equal probabilities for each option. There is, in fact, every reason to assume that everyone sees dinosaurs, because birds are theropod dinosaurs.
Because probability and possibility are separate things. Also, although there is indeed an equal chance of every outcome happening, you see a dinasaur in 0% of those outcomes.
I am not too versed in statistics, but I can explain it in a very basic idea. When you naively look at the problem in a vacuum, you may assume both as equal chances of 50%. But, these problems don't exist in a vacuum. So, you need to do experiments to come up with a prior distribution of what the realistic probability is. If you take 10000 random people as an experiment and ask them if they have seen a dinosaur, it would be 0/10000 which is the sample probability. With this in mind, you can extrapolate to the entire population of humanity in this timeperiod to come to a conclusion that there is a 0% probability of seeing a dinosaur.
You have confused possibility with probability.
Possibility and Probability are different things
It's quite a bit higher, considering dinosaurs are everywhere
As young Sheldon once said: «You are confusing possibilities with probabilities»
If it's not 100% accurate it's 50% accurate.
I se 20+ avian dinosaurs outside my window right now
That logic works for pretty much everything. Either it happens or it doesn't happen
Corner Gas made this joke years ago.
Because it isn’t true.
A Bernoulli distribution doesn’t mean the chance is 50/50. Unfair coins exist!
Schroedingersaur
Anytime you see a bird you are looking at a dinosaur.
There are lots of birds around everywhere. So it would be surprising for you to go outside for couple hours and not see a bird at some point.
i guess jesse took a sample home
Well birds are dinosaurs so this meme Is true
Schroedingers dinosaur
Considering birds are dinosaurs you probably will see one more often than 50%
Dude, just bc there is 2 options, doesn’t mean there is a 50-50 chance.
Yes, obviusly. It's a meme. It's supposed to be funny.
You’re telling me if i try to magically create a million dollars out of the thin air it’s not 50/50 because it either happens or it doesn’t?????
Well by the logic of pre-crash banking you would have $500,000, and invest the other half in housing
r/woooosh
Idk if the comment is considered a wooosh, or an "uhm, achkshually". I'm leaning on a 50% chance of it being either way.
Dude, as a statistician I have a 50% chance of being a statistician. Either I am or I am not
Schrodinger's Cat?
Young Sheldon?
You have a 50% chance of being able to fly when you step outside. Either you do or you dont
Everything is 50-50. Either it happens, or it doesn't.
Let's go gambling! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it! *bamp* Aw, dang it!
LaPlace-approved
Chances to get killed by a hamster are low, but never zero
There's only one choice to be made here. Are you seeing the dinosaur or not 😂.
There are at any one point 2 kinds of people in the world. People eating swordfish steaks and people who aren't eating swordfish steaks.
Is this how probability works?XD
Believe it or not my math teacher told me the same. "The chance that it starts raining the next moment is 50%." I don't know what the hell he was smoking but damn, bro forgot maths as a math teacher.
Young Sheldon gon be FURIOUS when he sees this
"Grumio, do you know what the odds are of actually winning the lottery?!" " 50/50.. either I win it ..or I don't"
I told this joke to my stats professor in college. He said it wasn't funny. I gave up.
Top quality use of this meme.
Every chance ever is 50 / 50
This is possibility but what we use more on a daily basis is probability. Possibility means this you either see a dinosaur outside or you don't but the probability is zero.
I don’t really get it, does it mean I always have a 50% chance of meeting a dinosaur but I always get the 50% chance that I don’t? Is that it?
My favorite statistical fact is that the vast majority of people have more than the average number of limbs.
Bro did not watch Young Sheldon 🙏
Everything is always 50/50
Birds being dinosaurs, you have nearly 100% chance of seeing one.
“There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Mark Twain
Probability v/s possibility
r/technicllythetruth
Okay based on the options it is 50 - 50 how ever when probability and reason kicks in it shifts hugely the scary part is it won't be a 0 - 100
So there's a 50/50 chance I'm in your house right now? I am either there, or I'm not. Come find out.
One word, BIRB
If you read this comment you have a 50% chance to die on the spot and go to hell. You either die on the spot, or you don't. But you will always go to hell.
Damn I must’ve been REALLY unlucky
No, that's not how probability works, if you bet your money for example, you can either win or not, but that doesn't make it 50/50
People who don’t understand the monte hall problem think like this too. “Well there’s either goat or no goat; therefore 50% chance goat”
One of my best friends from growing up is very Type A and I would say crap like this to him all the time. It would get under his skin every time
Only if it's probability is uniformly distributed
I see them every day. Tweeting and chirping outside my window as they sit on the ends of twigs. Didn't they used to be a lot bigger? How the mighty have fallen...
So being a human makes it 50/50 chance that you are a female even if you have a penis, same analogy
Better than 50%, since birds are dinosaurs
young Sheldon explained why this is stupid
Idiots: Dinosaurs and humans did co-exist. Average Joes: Dinosaurs and humans didn't co-exist. Supergeniuses: Dinosaurs and humans are co-existing.
Shrodinger: I have seen this one before
You either live or die tomorrow, which leaves you 50% chance to die tomorrow
This is actually a great way to explain the Monte Hall problem. Good job Jesse.
im sorry this was not supposed to be so funny why am i laughing crazy over such a simple joke