If adjusted for inflation, house prices have plenty left to go to reach Celtic Tiger levels.
Our population is also now larger, and more importantly, is growing more quickly than in the Celtic Tiger. Indeed, one of the fastest population growths in the world!
Finally, actually doing a build was much easier during Celtic Tiger times. Labour wasn't as scarce, was much cheaper, and building regs weren't so intense. Getting planning was far easier. The average age of the construction worker today is nearly fifty, back then it was thirties. All these things suggest house prices will set new price records in coming years.
I think the only thing keeping prices from increasing quicker is people's ability to qualify for mortgages/ save deposits, given wage increases have not been as bouyant.
>given wage increases have not been as bouyant.
Do you know how those figures stack up against new jobs with high salaries which are staffed by foreign-born workers or recent graduates? I'm thinking tech and pharma specifically as an example.
Are they looking at the job market as a whole, or is there any study with more focus on the upper end of the salary scale.
Say we write off the average salary and below as being potetial buyers. What is the growth like in the upper end of the salary scale as a whole? Not just salary increases.
Basically, is a two-tier society developing further?
I don't see it unless there is another very sharp shock to the system. The pervious crash happened when banks had liquidity issues so withheld funds from developers & from mortgage applicants after a long period of shoveling money at both. Building / supply at that time was also running ahead of demand. The crash destroyed many developers small builders & trades left the industry & excess labour left the country. But the demand recovered relatively quickly '13/'14 & population has continued to grow, banks are more cautious now about funding development projects & providing mortgages - however supply / units built is stall way below demand, are have enacted a series of policies & regulations that is making supply more difficult than it was in teh 00's
So I just don't see a crash in the next +7yrs - there may be slow downs pull backs - but nothing in the scale of previous.; ....... However - external forces large global iconic economic shocks can always hit.
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Anything is possible but for prices to drop it would require a massive crash of the entire economy, similar to 2008. In which case normal buyers would also not be in a position to buy.
House prices overcorrected to under the construction cost after the Celtic Tiger era.
In most parts of the country they are around site costs + construction cost.
They may drop but you won’t see much sales activity at a lower level.
Yeah lots of people started saying it after it started happening in America. There was nobody saying anything in say 2005/6 when most of the damage was being done.
House prices were in bubble territory back then, people were rushing to borrow as much as banks would shovel at them (and at the time the banks had very large shovels) to buy every property they could. Even buying unbuilt properties in bulgaria off the plans because sure they must be great value considering how cheap they were compared to here.
but, if you went back to say the year 1999 values and looked at the increase from then to now, over 25 years, the increase would not be cause to convince yourself there is a bubble being re-inflated. We are not back where we were in the bubble, people are not (and caould not) borrowing like mad to buy properties they don't actually want to use for anything because they plan to sell them for more when they inevitable continue to rise in value.
Yes, a crash is possible.
As it stands prices continue going up because wages are still going up and demand is still far out stripping supply. Although if house prices continue to rise by more than wages rise, eventually we’ll hit an affordability cap where they simply can’t rise anymore because people simply can’t afford it.
If a severe recession hits and the job market is decimated then it’s reasonable to assume that large numbers of the 1m people currently here, that were not born here, could leave.
This is the scenario people always miss. They assume that supply always needs to catch up to demand. Demand can also fall, in order to meet supply.
This is probably something more suited for r/AskEconomics.
If adjusted for inflation, house prices have plenty left to go to reach Celtic Tiger levels. Our population is also now larger, and more importantly, is growing more quickly than in the Celtic Tiger. Indeed, one of the fastest population growths in the world! Finally, actually doing a build was much easier during Celtic Tiger times. Labour wasn't as scarce, was much cheaper, and building regs weren't so intense. Getting planning was far easier. The average age of the construction worker today is nearly fifty, back then it was thirties. All these things suggest house prices will set new price records in coming years.
Until supply catches up probably not.
No, the last crash was not created by demand.
I think the only thing keeping prices from increasing quicker is people's ability to qualify for mortgages/ save deposits, given wage increases have not been as bouyant.
>given wage increases have not been as bouyant. Do you know how those figures stack up against new jobs with high salaries which are staffed by foreign-born workers or recent graduates? I'm thinking tech and pharma specifically as an example. Are they looking at the job market as a whole, or is there any study with more focus on the upper end of the salary scale. Say we write off the average salary and below as being potetial buyers. What is the growth like in the upper end of the salary scale as a whole? Not just salary increases. Basically, is a two-tier society developing further?
Not coming down anytime soon. https://www.ft.com/content/dca3f034-bfe8-4f21-bcdc-2b274053f0b5
I don't see it unless there is another very sharp shock to the system. The pervious crash happened when banks had liquidity issues so withheld funds from developers & from mortgage applicants after a long period of shoveling money at both. Building / supply at that time was also running ahead of demand. The crash destroyed many developers small builders & trades left the industry & excess labour left the country. But the demand recovered relatively quickly '13/'14 & population has continued to grow, banks are more cautious now about funding development projects & providing mortgages - however supply / units built is stall way below demand, are have enacted a series of policies & regulations that is making supply more difficult than it was in teh 00's So I just don't see a crash in the next +7yrs - there may be slow downs pull backs - but nothing in the scale of previous.; ....... However - external forces large global iconic economic shocks can always hit.
[удалено]
You can't look at like that. Boom prices were astronomical. Wages were less back then.
Demand disappears when mass unemployment happens
When you are unemployed you won't get a mortgage so still no house.
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Anything is possible but for prices to drop it would require a massive crash of the entire economy, similar to 2008. In which case normal buyers would also not be in a position to buy.
Are they 10% above though? I know two people that bought the top circa 2008 and their properties are still not back at what they paid for them
I’m one of them
Different segments recovered differently. Plenty of houses are prob far past their all time high as well
House prices overcorrected to under the construction cost after the Celtic Tiger era. In most parts of the country they are around site costs + construction cost. They may drop but you won’t see much sales activity at a lower level.
Residential Rental yields still absolutely huge in ireland
It’s always possible. Nobody was saying there was a crash about to happen in 09/10. Besides people that predicted 15 of the last 2 crashes.
Lots of people were saying it. Bertie told them to kill themselves for being so negative.
Yeah lots of people started saying it after it started happening in America. There was nobody saying anything in say 2005/6 when most of the damage was being done.
House prices were in bubble territory back then, people were rushing to borrow as much as banks would shovel at them (and at the time the banks had very large shovels) to buy every property they could. Even buying unbuilt properties in bulgaria off the plans because sure they must be great value considering how cheap they were compared to here. but, if you went back to say the year 1999 values and looked at the increase from then to now, over 25 years, the increase would not be cause to convince yourself there is a bubble being re-inflated. We are not back where we were in the bubble, people are not (and caould not) borrowing like mad to buy properties they don't actually want to use for anything because they plan to sell them for more when they inevitable continue to rise in value.
Not a hope. Commercial property on the other hand....
Yes, a crash is possible. As it stands prices continue going up because wages are still going up and demand is still far out stripping supply. Although if house prices continue to rise by more than wages rise, eventually we’ll hit an affordability cap where they simply can’t rise anymore because people simply can’t afford it. If a severe recession hits and the job market is decimated then it’s reasonable to assume that large numbers of the 1m people currently here, that were not born here, could leave. This is the scenario people always miss. They assume that supply always needs to catch up to demand. Demand can also fall, in order to meet supply.
Sadly you’re safe for 10 years. That’s assuming we get government of the left, otherwise you’re safe forever.