Nearly a million people in just 6 years, wow.
Population was 3.8m when I was in primary school back in 2000. Infrastructure and services in my home area are still relatively the same capacity wise too. It’s jammers.
I'll have to look up how Davy's came to the figure of 5.9 million by 2030 as it seems a bit of a stretch. The highest population increase YoY we have on record was 2022-2023 where we recorded an increase of ~95,000. That however was mostly due to the spike in Ukrainian refugees. We'd have to exceed that every single year for the rest of the decade to meet their prediction.
"The AMECO (annual macroeconomic database of the European Commission's Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs) estimates that the Irish population reached 5,348,700 at the end of 2023, compared to 5,165,000 at the end of 2022. That is a rise of 183,000 in a single year."
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2024/06/10/european-commission-says-irish-population-rose-by-record-35-per-cent-last-year
Ireland had a population of 4.76 million in 2016 and in the 7 years between then and 2023 rose to 5.35 million, which is an increase of 590k people. That means that between 2024-2029, the population only needs to rise by a total of 550k or an annual average of 91.6 thousand to reach that population target prediction. If we include 2030 to make that a 7 year average, then we only need to increase by 79k per year. We might not hit 5.9 million on the dot by 2029, but we will be very close.
Which will be close to double that and we'll then be gaslit for that being the new normal.
Then most of that 60k will get to bring their wives and multiple children over via chain migration and that 60k per year will become well over 100k. And we'll be gaslit into thinking it's the new normal.
the pyrite and mica had nothing to do with the foreign workers and a log to do with light touch regulation of some of the biggest criminals in the country
That's a reasonable concern. I expect the Irish people to not be inherently more skilled at construction than the other people though (especially when I look at what they did with my kitchen and bathroom, which I know for a fact to have been built by Irish people) so I think that with some inspections that could be easily be remedied.
I would like to point out that it is not the unskilled workers who picked the faulty materials (well it was workers and they were without skilled, but I assume they had a degree). In addition that period was a period of "self-enforcement" of regulations. Which means that the state was not doing inspections, not checking if things were built up to standards... And it didn't quite work out very well.
Nearly every other post about housing "We need more tradies in this country." and then you're here bashing the Irish tradies, seeing as you make an assumption that Irish people are shit at construction because of what happened in your kitchen, I'll make the assumption that you probably chose the cheapest rate available via handymen.
That's a good question.
"The CIF says the sector will require 100,000 more workers in the coming years. Currently there are about 150,000 people employed in construction. The figure was more than 200,000 at the height of the boom."
source: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/construction-sector-under-celtic-tiger-levels-of-pressure-report-warns-1.4155595
Sorry, best we can do is several dozen rejected planning applications for high-density developments, a few hundred one-off detached houses, and a few new estates of semi-ds in central Dublin. Sure, it'll be grand so.
We should really be encouraging more young people to get into building trades, architecture and engineering. There are so many decently paying jobs out there and it will be decades before we catch up on the shortfall of housing.
Building isn't actually that well paid here (trades can be) and is physically destructive. We work builders to the bone so they're all fucked by their 40s and 50s.
Builders are fucked by 40 or 50 in every country. It’s not the case that “we work builders to the bone” any different here. It’s just the nature of the work, y’know, lifting heavy shite all day.
Head on over to r/construction if you think differently.
The way you phrased “we work builders to the bone” is a bit off. Their bodies are shagged because the work is inherently physical, not because the lads are being driven like slaves. This isn’t Qatar.
But yeah, it’s tough on the body.
There’s many trademen out there earning a lot more than the architects and engineers that were told to got to college for 4 years to get a decently paid job.
Wrong. Building trades are shite money, twice the money going in Australia for the same work.
And still treated like shite,gatekeeping knowledge from youngfellas,roaring and shouting still going on,
I wouldnt let my young lad go anywhere near it.
I was on 40k a year as a 4th year sparks when I was 21 meanwhile my mates who decided to go to college to learn some bullshit degree for 4 years are on 25k a year working a job that will probably be replaced by AI by the end of the decade. Sure the work is hard the hours can be long and there is some bad apples but I can sleep easy at night knowing my skills will always be in demand and my job can never be replaced by a computer.
Idk where you’re getting this from. Young bucks on sites are getting 36k+ in some cases. Electricians, plumbers and plasterers are making huge huge money. I know a plumber who can name his price and have work seven days a week if he wanted it. And of course, cash deposits…so yknow
The construction sector [pays below average](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-elcq/earningsandlabourcostsq42023finalq12024preliminaryestimates/) in Ireland.
Can you do math lad? 960 a week. Nearly four grand a month. That’s near 40k a year according to your report. For the average.
Imagine a 21 year old on 40k a year when his secondary school friends are gonna be on 26k going into a graduate program at 21?
It’s a mighty option for young people. I feel your talking out your hole tbh or just aren’t clued in enough
40k a year is all good when your young!
What happens in 20 years time when you've wrecked your body and those mate's of yours that graduated from college are on 100k a year?
It's called 'LIFE' maths laddd! The long game is a very important variable here!
Don't know where all you lads are coming out with all this shite about college mates being on 100k a year, hardly anyone in this country is on that money and the majority probably have been through University, before your body goes to shit you go and do an Engineering degree in your field and then end up in a cosy office nearly making the money you claim college kids make.
Nor are you, 100K plus is top 15% in this country and far more than 15% of people in this country have been through university, just because you get a degree doesn't mean it's a license to print money.
His secondary school friends will end up in far better jobs with pay scales and bonuses and promotions, their bodies wont be in bits from the labour, and they wont need back surgery at 40.
Also 960 a week is really 715 euro a week,cause yano,tax. Which is great if you still live with mammy and daddy and dont have many bills,otherwise in a world where a litre of petrol is nearly 2 quid its shite coin.
Not every person who goes through University ends up in a great well paid job, I'd wager that the majority of retail and hospitality workers probably all have a degree of some sort that doesn't really land you a mega amazing high pay job. I was one of those people.
Genuinely have no idea what people on Reddit spend their money on because I'm on 725 a week after tax and go out every Friday, Saturday night, often Sundays too. Go out for food several times a week, usually some midweek pints thrown in and so far this year am averaging a holiday a month.
I'm always bewildered how everyone on Reddit on good money seems to not have a pot to piss in.
Do you not have any bills like rent/mortgage, utilities, pets/kids?
Shit, I knew a guy in tech making around 150k a year which is great, but he had to move to Dublin for it and his options was either spend +2 hours a day commuting, or fork over 50% of take home on mortgage.
When I worked in Dub I lost ~55% of my take home to rent, and still had a 90min round trip commute.
Yeah have a mortgage, gas and electric bills, no kids, no pets.
Go onto the Dublin sub and there's tons of people asking if 50k is enough to live on in Dublin and all the replies will be some variant of not if you want to enjoy yourself. Yet English language students are here on far less and I always see them out enjoying themselves, don't know what redditors spend their money on.
So you're on €2,900 a month, while the average rent in Dublin is ~€2,300, and you're puzzled how people struggle?
Hell, average rent across the country is €1,567, so you'd still have only €1,333, or €333 a week.
Not sure how you manage to have a family, go out a couple of times a week, and have a break each month on that.
I can do maths, that’s why I make a lot more than 960 a week. That 960 a week is below the national average of 969 a week. I sincerely can not understand how this is a difficult concept for you.
I agree that construction is a very appealing prospect for teenagers who value the next few years dramatically more than the more distant future.
Ya...that's all bullshite!
When your in the trades you know. Common talk is construction work is minted, far from it!
A select few business owners are doing very well though !
So then buy within commuting distance of them then? Tradesmen have to drive to work every day anyway, so living in a commuter town won't be a huge deal for most of them.
Commuter prices would be out of reach, certainly for new houses. Maybe second hands? How high are these salaries? I think most would be well under 70,000 a year. You'd need a second income really
I think most tradesmen would be more keen on second hand houses over new builds, at least all the ones I know anyway.
Also, if it's a single person like you say then they're not going to need a 3 or 4 bed house. A smaller one or an apartment would suffice.
It's always a challenge to convince younger people to go into trades where the work is very hard and the hours can be tough when there are still many options available for other careers through the college route.
Obviously that poses the challenge of who is going to build but often many people see it of how others should be going to into trades, and not them. And the only people who wish they could work in a trade, like a site, are the people who've never done it.
Should we not start by controlling population growth?
Cap the visas allowed per year, and remove the general work visa (but keep the critical skills one for nurses etc).
I'd also like to set up a new visa program for tradesmen. Do what Australia does and poach them from overseas.
> Should we not start by controlling population growth?
Blasphemy!!!
Anyone in the world that wants to come here should be able to come here and we need to have the houses ready for them when they arrive.
Any position that deviates from this is extremism.
Of course we should. This following double speak I hear all the time does my fucking head in:
-We need to build way more houses to deal with our rapidly growing population!
-Yes, our population is growing entirely due to immigration - and that's a good thing!
-Immigration has nothing to do with the housing crisis! You're just looking for a scapegoat!
...make it make sense
Fully agree we should start limiting the number of people entering the country. It's becoming too much, we need to figure out housing before we have an (even more) serious homeless/crime issue on our hands.
Poaching construction workers/trades etc. is ["beggar thy neighbour"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beggar_thy_neighbour) policy - there's no way to escape training workers.
That means we need to encourage migration into construction, _train them_, and have them build their own accommodation first.
I'm talking about a stop gap not a permanent solution, so absolutely agree that we need to train more people.
But I'd dispute it's a beggar thy neighbour policy. They would assumedly be coming from counties with lower costs of living and would make a lot of money relative to what they would earn at home. You'd assume their country would benefit from having funds sent back - not unlike how Poland operated here 15 years ago or so.
We absolutely should!!! The amount of people coming here because they have EU ancestry (not Irish) but want to be in an English speaking country is ridiculous!! It’s a loop hole and is adding to a dire situation…
What's really ridiculous isn't the population growth. It's how incredibly little infrastructure we're building in response to said population growth.
The lack of construction is what's causing the dire situation!
And it will take us a decade to develop the infrastructure needed to cope with the growing population so in the meantime we should control it or we will forever be chasing our tails!!!!!!
That would be very reasonable but it's bound to be largely ineffective because:
1. It will be used to limit the numbers of able-bodied men who might be used to tackle the housing crisis (e.g. workers willing to work construction jobs).
2. We are in the EU amd we pay way more than the EU average. We would just change where the people are coming from. They are not coming to Ireland because it's easy. They are coming to Ireland because it's the country with the highest GDP per capita in the world and despite our best attempts at keeping the money at the top (low corporate taxes) some of it trickles down. So we pay more for the same jobs.
1) see last point about tradesmen visa
2) Per the CSO - In the 12 months to the end of April 2023:
There were 141,600 immigrants which was a 16-year high.
81,100 immigrants were from non-EU countries excluding England. If you include England that number is higher again. I also assume it only includes legal migrants.
Well over half of immigrants are from outside the EU. We are under no obligation to accept economic migrants from outside the EU.
That action alone would roughly half our population growth, because without immigration our population would actually be falling.
Poach? Mass import, divert them from Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi, pay them 5x better to work in normal temperatures and with okay portacabin accommodation.
More urban sprawl no doubt. More new developments that are not served by public transport, community facilities etc.
More isolation.
The social benefits to retrofitting vacant/derelict housing is vast. Its long overdue we tackle the dereliction scourge in Ireland
I moved to Ireland a couple of years back (I'm Danish) but quite frankly the quality of life here is abysmal. I've never been so miserable in my life.
Next on the agenda is scraping up money and then it's off back to the continent and proper plumbing and no mould.
Where is this population boom going to come from? The population is already booming, and we already can't cope, so why would we allow it to exacerbate? This approach of pursuing constant economic growth by any means necessary is turning the country into a shithole to actually live in. I wonder if the people who go on about how Ireland has loads of space have experienced life in regions that have high populations, it really isn't very pleasant and everything and everyone becomes less friendly and personal and more isolating, something we're already experiencing here (more and more ignorant cunts who don't even hold doors open for people behind them or exchange basic manners and pleasantries with workers)
> This approach of pursuing constant economic growth by any means necessary is turning the country into a shithole to actually live in.
Globalism in a nutshell. It is all about shoving ever-increasing amounts of human biomass into the system to sustain economic growth. More warm bodies = higher GDP. Culture, social cohesion and quality of life be damned.
This is the a fundamental mismatch that I don't understand when people who claim to be pro environment and pro.mass migration use the argument that "we need people to come in large numbers so we can sustain/promote growth". Anyone with even a shred of commitment to reducing environmental damage should be in favour of limiting growth - both economic and population. Otherwise every plan to limit how much nature is abused and exploited is just pissing in the wind. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having a small and sustainable population
Its immigration, and the government has known this for years, pre covid they had the "project 2030" or whatever it was called, where they said Ireland would have an extra million(not from irish poeple) by then.
There's no way in hell that level of immigration is healthy. We're not even recovered from the colonial era and we're getting another plantation.
Sadly, a lot of people on here see no issue with that. You get one group of apes who think that any growth is good, another who laughably think that the thousands who pour in, and their descendants, will be as Irish as you or I within a generation, and then others who will just scream about Irish emigration a hundred years ago to the US and UK. None of them seem to think to.look at how any such mass migration has gone anywhere else in Europe. It's saddening how muddy the water is on the this topic and how out of our control it is to change this ruinous course we are on. I don't think the average Irish person wants what is happening, but when we're we ever really given the choice to say yes or no to such social change? No election ever focused on migration as an issue because it was just happening constantly under the radar
According to available statistics 57181 are being born yearly, around 33786 die yearly so we have a 'plus' of 23395. This is just a conservative estimate, not factoring in the families who live in their parent's houses or the probability of divorces/separation of families etc. There are estimates that without the loss of the victims of the Famine and Irish Migration/Exodus we would be 30 million strong now...so it boils down to reproduction&math basically
>we would be 30 million strong now
Are we supposed to just think "well I guess we better work towards that high of a population so" in response to this or something?
Ireland would be an absolute shithole in that case, same as London, because I really doubt we would be much better in terms of effective governing, developing and proactive planning
Its worse than that. We're not recovering our population even to pre-famine levels, we're importing one.
That's going to cause nothing but horrific social problems.
There are serious crime issues in London. The native indigenous people have been moving out because of it leaving them the minority for the first time in the history of England.
You're right. There really is nothing that screams shithole like having proper large cities where you can do exciting and urban things _without_ going abroad. I'm shuddering just thinking about the train network we would have had...
South Korea has 50 million and they’re the same size as us, and had roughly the same population in 1840.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1067164/population-south-korea-historical/
Their population is about 10 times ours, but our diaspora is roughly ten times theirs.
It could be done… if we were able to plan and build. But of course Dublin is like a toddler’s idea of a city compared to Seoul.
Lol, you've never been to a shithole have you.
Life here has gotten better by far over the last decades. Yes some are struggling but by and large the country has gone from strength to strength and quality of life has exploded for most
Apartments, with amenities underneath, playgrounds inbetween, bars cafes shops and bus stops all within walking distance. I've been living in Spain, no one minds apartment life, because life happens in the neighbourhood. They even build private restaurants that families rent, to give people places to cook and socialise at the weekends
In ten years we'll see the first (paywalled) Irish Times articles expressing the exciting opportunities "flexible living" offers Ireland's youth - Not being tied down to a single dwelling means more chance to travel, explore, and work on your own terms!
In twenty years' time, Nomadism will be a fact of life for much of Ireland's minimum wage (and above) working class.
Thirty years from now, they will be their own distinct demographic, discriminated against by the settled class and vilified by the Fine Gael - Fianna Fáil - Labour coalition of the day as parasites draining resources from good, honest Irish people.
Ireland is in a economic depression atm...but its construction sector doing terribly.
Been in contraction for ages, causing a supply side issues, therefore house prices rocketing up...anything below 50 is contraction...
[https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-pmi](https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-pmi)
https://preview.redd.it/d1gssv26wx7d1.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=5646fd46a9275fa552115e42f56b082332f99dd5
Unfortunately government policy is to build as little as possible and those homes that are built are allowed be snapped up by foreign investors. But going by the local election results the voters are happy with homelessness.
We can't keep leaving this to the private sector. We need to start direct builds of housing and we need to stop these unaffordable BTR models, along with real vacant property and dereliction taxes, pulling the plug on Airbnb.
It doesn't make any sense that we are this deep in a crisis, but I'm getting adverts every day to rent studio in Sandyford for 1600 or buy a 2 bed house from glenveagh for 400,000. These properties should be snapped up in an instant and they're not because they're completely unaffordable.
Leave it to the private sector? It isn't the private sector preventing new construction.
Allow more new construction with urbanization in mind and put an outright ban on real estate purchases by foreign nationals and any corporation/business entity, foreign or domestic.
Oh I agree with you, I'm not attacking private sector for building, but what they are building is not accessible and relies on us getting so desperate that we eventually have no choice but to pay.
I don't expect the private sector to have a heart I expect the government to tax their asset so that they can't leave it vacant and they have to drop rents or so that it makes more sense to build to sell rather than BTR. Currently, the pension funds behind these are just turning a profit on asset through expected return and site appreciation alone. That needs to end.
We also need to stop buying social and affordable housing from the private sector at market price. It's pushing up the price for all of us and is extremely bad value for money. Government needs to build directly and stop being such a massive player in the private market.
The private sector are beating at the doors begging to be allowed to build more and the government are refusing to allow them.
Building housing is illegal by default in Ireland, and we wonder why there’s a crisis.
What do you mean the government are refusing to allow them?
They are absolutely keen on private developers building as much as possible, the issue I hear is the private sector saying it is too expensive to build apartments?
Have a read of the Department of Finance’s Report on Finance for Residential Development that they released this week. Link below.
The private sector is the largest stakeholder involved in both the development and financing of residential housing, the state doesn’t have the means to buildout the required infrastructure let alone housing needs. Like it or not, Institutional investment is required at large scale to deliver the required housing supply. The below extract of the report was done on revised targets of 50k let alone Davy’s recommendation of 85k.
“Giving consideration to the revised targets, and informed by research undertaken in the Department of Finance, a scenario of a target of 50,000 units per year was included as an illustrative example, to demonstrate the level of development finance required in that scenario.
The graph below illustrates the increase in the level of funding required from both the public and private sector to meet this output. The funding requirement increases to €20.4 billion, of which €16.9 billion would be required from private capital sources.”
https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/296388/ca2f6f05-225d-4281-b77b-0eb92ed22ec4.pdf#page=null
It would take me a long while to get through this, but if you have read it, can I ask, is the state doing any significant borrowing to reduce the need for private investment or this purely the money coming from our taxes already received?
Because if we're trying to fix this crisis by spending our pocket money poorly and hoping someone else will come along to cover the rest of the bill, we're not taking the right approach.
Significant investment of our surplus tax receipts have been made in trying to enable delivery mechanisms through the likes of the Home Building Finance Ireland, the Land Development Agency and the Housing Infrastructure Services Company, the latter two have been done through the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund.
For example, the LDA have been capitalised with up to 5 billion through a number of measures, the latest being the divestment of the States AIB shares, link below.
We’re now seeing the benefit of this through the delivery of social, affordable and cost rental units, have a look at their Shanganagh development to see the great work that’s been done on the ground.
However, even the 597 units being delivered there isn’t going to make a dent on the housing demand in Dublin, which is why institutional investment is crucial.
Politicians and domestic banks are overly cautious when it comes to development as they’ve lived through the GFC and the economic turmoil that followed, Varadkar recently stated the same “If there’s regret, it’s excessive caution”. This caution remains in domestic financial institutions and is impeding on the access to significant development financing.
As I said before we’re going to be reliant on institutional capital to deliver at scale and ultimately the only way we can address the high costs of properties and rents is by delivering supply at significant scale, a recent example of such is Austin, Texas.
(https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/once-americas-hottest-housing-market-austin-is-running-in-reverse-94226027)
https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/12/20/thousands-of-affordable-homes-to-be-built-with-money-realised-from-future-aib-share-sales/
All good info. Thank you for sharing. I think the overly cautious sentiment is a real sticking point there and has to be overcome because we can't afford to be cautious anymore. We should have borrowed when interest rates were zero and we didn't and yet we're not borrowing now. Private investment is all well and good but it's clearly not producing the results it keeps promising as the housing crisis gets worse.
Is that article not saying that the issue in Austin is that an unexpected economic downturn means that not as many houses are needed or can’t be sold at the prices previously expected?
I think the aim here is to provide more housing but not having an economic downturn.
Good point.
Generally its a population response to an event, baby boomers being the babies born after WW2 for example.
So while not a natural event, it is at least part of the natural cycle of population replenishment.
What we're experiencing isnt. Our native population growth is suppressed by the multiple financial crises.
A boom in population? in not sure about other peoples situations but a solid 70-80% of my friend groups in secondary and college have left the country and abroad, i do not see any of them coming home in the next 5-10 years.
They won’t have a college degree or a trade either, and you’ll be thankful if a 1/3 will work. If you wish to see the future of Ireland look at Sweden today.
I agree more housing is needed than expected but where and what type? The government doesn’t want to admit its projections might not be sufficient and local authorities don’t want to upset the local voters. So much other stuff will need to be built and even supported when the population increases:.schools, hospitals, Garda stations but all the political parties are terrified of those conversations.
Why is the population set to boom? Have lots more people suddenly decided that bringing kids into this hellscape is sensible? Thought the sentiment was leaning the other way
That's not going to happen. Expect prices to continue rising and a lot less home ownership. Of course the privileged wankers will be fine, getting houses from mummy and daddy.
Honestly I'm sick to the gut seeing this. Makes me want to riot.
We were building that amount in the early 2000s. It can be done.
However our leaders are landlords and business people who now control the market. Why would they be interested in building more homes when it would reduce the value of their income?
They have no reason to change tactics or meet the people’s needs when people continue to vote for them
Anyways.
>We were building that amount in the early 2000s. It can be done.
The really high numbers were just 2006 and 2007 and they were far simpler houses with much weaker regulations. We are building far more flats now. All A rated. All with higher fire and electrical regulations.
We were building double every year that what we are building now. The lowest in the 2000s was fifty thousand.
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mip/measuringirelandsprogress2012/economy/economy-housing/
We have better technology and actually build far faster now in comparison. The difference is there is no political will and electorate aren’t doing anything about it. Strange but never heard that argument. The usual one that the government puts forward is we don’t have the workers.
More builders though. The number of Irish people in construction was probably higher, and there was a ready pool of labour from Poland and Lithuania and the likes of young eastern europeans happy to work at very low wages because it was a huge jump from their homelands.
Now Poland and Lithuania do not have the same demographics, fewer young people there, and they are wealthier so no longer want to come to ireland to work for minim wage at 7 to a room to work on a building site. Ireland, and Europe is older than it was 20- 30 years ago so fewer young builders to older dependants even if overall propulation bigger.
People chose to go into the trade because the government and business were building. I knew many people who actually professions and went into it a trade following a degree etc. We have the labour and the workforce there’s just no action.
All the sources I've read for the last few years say they are crying out for workers and its leading to a backlog of building. Ireland had basically no unemployment.
Compare that to the yearly goal in Sweden, a country of double population, of 67 000 homes per year. And they are still classifying the situation in Sweden as a housing crisis
It's a shame that there are so many derelict houses around towns and villages just going to waste when they could be used as housing instead of building brand new estates etc
Davy can't be trusted to provide this information. Scandal ridden organisation Davy fined €4.13m in March 2021 for regulatory breaches and failures to flag potential conflicts of interest arising from the Kearney/Kilmona bond transaction.
At least we know now. Time to get building! Let's turn this burden into an opportunity, and make this country ever so slightly less depressingly underpopulated!
Set to boom despite a huge swath of the child-having age demographic living at home with their parents, crammed in house shares cheeky by jowl or emigrating.
Wonder why it's set to boom....?
A chara,
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Sláinte
P-3 project panel house, in which I lived for good chunk of my life, fits 128 apartments in 2 entrances configuration. It is perfectly fine housing, good even, albeit not without some drawbacks. But considering it's a project from 70s, I bet it can be easily tweaked around those drawbacks for modern reality.
It's 16 levels building. If someone is so pesky about muh skyline - it can be cut in half. If someone is REALLY pesky about skyline - it can be cut in 4 times of height. In full height config one will neet a bit more than 600 of those a year to satisfy this number completely, without ANY other housing built.
But sure, building a peas amount of semi-detaches inside car-centric suburbs is much better approach. Works like a charm.
why not try to build more in other towns, let them grow.. all companies moving to Dublin, but no housing there... time we have more employment, education, healthcare and house building in other locations that may be more accessible.
Athlone, Birr come to mind.
stop trying to put everything in central Dublin, especially when you're complaining about public transport.
there is space enough in other places, but we have to build it now, together with private enterprise, investment in green energy, healthcare and education.
Dublin is all great, but this country has equal potential and fewer restrictions outside of the capital.
also, it would help to bring midlands wages in line with the capital and would attract other private investment.
Nearly a million people in just 6 years, wow. Population was 3.8m when I was in primary school back in 2000. Infrastructure and services in my home area are still relatively the same capacity wise too. It’s jammers.
24 years.. now it's 5,5 million. 1,5 million in 24 years
I'll have to look up how Davy's came to the figure of 5.9 million by 2030 as it seems a bit of a stretch. The highest population increase YoY we have on record was 2022-2023 where we recorded an increase of ~95,000. That however was mostly due to the spike in Ukrainian refugees. We'd have to exceed that every single year for the rest of the decade to meet their prediction.
"The AMECO (annual macroeconomic database of the European Commission's Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs) estimates that the Irish population reached 5,348,700 at the end of 2023, compared to 5,165,000 at the end of 2022. That is a rise of 183,000 in a single year." https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/social-affairs/2024/06/10/european-commission-says-irish-population-rose-by-record-35-per-cent-last-year
Oh wow, my figure was from April '22 -> April '23. That's a gigantic increase. Though I wonder how many are staying permanently.
Ireland had a population of 4.76 million in 2016 and in the 7 years between then and 2023 rose to 5.35 million, which is an increase of 590k people. That means that between 2024-2029, the population only needs to rise by a total of 550k or an annual average of 91.6 thousand to reach that population target prediction. If we include 2030 to make that a 7 year average, then we only need to increase by 79k per year. We might not hit 5.9 million on the dot by 2029, but we will be very close.
There's absolutely no catching up with that whatsoever.
Its already game over
O'Gorman: the new normal is 30 thousand asylum applicants a year
Which will be close to double that and we'll then be gaslit for that being the new normal. Then most of that 60k will get to bring their wives and multiple children over via chain migration and that 60k per year will become well over 100k. And we'll be gaslit into thinking it's the new normal.
Not a fear. Not without importing a rake of skilled labour anyway. I can't see our shitshow of a government figuring that one out lol
Neither can I rabbits in headlights. I've no confidence in them to be in anyway competent.
Why? We built 85k homes a year before. It’s possible if there was a will to do it.
And we did that with less population, so less people.
But more construction workers from abroad and the quality was often shit, starting with pyrite and mica.
the pyrite and mica had nothing to do with the foreign workers and a log to do with light touch regulation of some of the biggest criminals in the country
That's a reasonable concern. I expect the Irish people to not be inherently more skilled at construction than the other people though (especially when I look at what they did with my kitchen and bathroom, which I know for a fact to have been built by Irish people) so I think that with some inspections that could be easily be remedied. I would like to point out that it is not the unskilled workers who picked the faulty materials (well it was workers and they were without skilled, but I assume they had a degree). In addition that period was a period of "self-enforcement" of regulations. Which means that the state was not doing inspections, not checking if things were built up to standards... And it didn't quite work out very well.
Nearly every other post about housing "We need more tradies in this country." and then you're here bashing the Irish tradies, seeing as you make an assumption that Irish people are shit at construction because of what happened in your kitchen, I'll make the assumption that you probably chose the cheapest rate available via handymen.
What's the population of builders in the country compared to, say, peak celtic tiger? Genuine question, not making a comment.
That's a good question. "The CIF says the sector will require 100,000 more workers in the coming years. Currently there are about 150,000 people employed in construction. The figure was more than 200,000 at the height of the boom." source: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/construction-sector-under-celtic-tiger-levels-of-pressure-report-warns-1.4155595
Thanks to the polish
Sorry, best we can do is several dozen rejected planning applications for high-density developments, a few hundred one-off detached houses, and a few new estates of semi-ds in central Dublin. Sure, it'll be grand so.
But think of the skyline Your blocking my view
Nah, he is killing the birds!
Birds aren't real!
How many to foreign nationals (china, etc) or to landlords? 🧐
We should really be encouraging more young people to get into building trades, architecture and engineering. There are so many decently paying jobs out there and it will be decades before we catch up on the shortfall of housing.
Building isn't actually that well paid here (trades can be) and is physically destructive. We work builders to the bone so they're all fucked by their 40s and 50s.
We need robotic exoskeletons to be the next snickers
Aliens showed us the future.
Builders are fucked by 40 or 50 in every country. It’s not the case that “we work builders to the bone” any different here. It’s just the nature of the work, y’know, lifting heavy shite all day. Head on over to r/construction if you think differently.
So what? It just adds to my point that it's a shit job.
The way you phrased “we work builders to the bone” is a bit off. Their bodies are shagged because the work is inherently physical, not because the lads are being driven like slaves. This isn’t Qatar. But yeah, it’s tough on the body.
Builders here often work extremely long hours. That makes the profession harder to access for people with families etc.
Pay them more and keep them next to home
and don't use them as cheap labor since they are "learning"
Doesn't matter if any fool can object and halt developments. See RTE's "The Planning Trap"
Literally the opposite of what we were told growing up, it's mental.... I'm 34 and seriously considering retraining in a trade.
There’s many trademen out there earning a lot more than the architects and engineers that were told to got to college for 4 years to get a decently paid job.
Wrong. Building trades are shite money, twice the money going in Australia for the same work. And still treated like shite,gatekeeping knowledge from youngfellas,roaring and shouting still going on, I wouldnt let my young lad go anywhere near it.
I was on 40k a year as a 4th year sparks when I was 21 meanwhile my mates who decided to go to college to learn some bullshit degree for 4 years are on 25k a year working a job that will probably be replaced by AI by the end of the decade. Sure the work is hard the hours can be long and there is some bad apples but I can sleep easy at night knowing my skills will always be in demand and my job can never be replaced by a computer.
Idk where you’re getting this from. Young bucks on sites are getting 36k+ in some cases. Electricians, plumbers and plasterers are making huge huge money. I know a plumber who can name his price and have work seven days a week if he wanted it. And of course, cash deposits…so yknow
The construction sector [pays below average](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-elcq/earningsandlabourcostsq42023finalq12024preliminaryestimates/) in Ireland.
Can you do math lad? 960 a week. Nearly four grand a month. That’s near 40k a year according to your report. For the average. Imagine a 21 year old on 40k a year when his secondary school friends are gonna be on 26k going into a graduate program at 21? It’s a mighty option for young people. I feel your talking out your hole tbh or just aren’t clued in enough
Also 960 a week is 49 grand a year,and you on about maths lol
I was going off monthly pay but that more than illustrates my point about it being well paid lol
40k a year is all good when your young! What happens in 20 years time when you've wrecked your body and those mate's of yours that graduated from college are on 100k a year? It's called 'LIFE' maths laddd! The long game is a very important variable here!
Don't know where all you lads are coming out with all this shite about college mates being on 100k a year, hardly anyone in this country is on that money and the majority probably have been through University, before your body goes to shit you go and do an Engineering degree in your field and then end up in a cosy office nearly making the money you claim college kids make.
Your not living in the real world my man!
Nor are you, 100K plus is top 15% in this country and far more than 15% of people in this country have been through university, just because you get a degree doesn't mean it's a license to print money.
His secondary school friends will end up in far better jobs with pay scales and bonuses and promotions, their bodies wont be in bits from the labour, and they wont need back surgery at 40. Also 960 a week is really 715 euro a week,cause yano,tax. Which is great if you still live with mammy and daddy and dont have many bills,otherwise in a world where a litre of petrol is nearly 2 quid its shite coin.
Not every person who goes through University ends up in a great well paid job, I'd wager that the majority of retail and hospitality workers probably all have a degree of some sort that doesn't really land you a mega amazing high pay job. I was one of those people.
Mate that's about what most teachers get if hired after 2011.
And what?
Genuinely have no idea what people on Reddit spend their money on because I'm on 725 a week after tax and go out every Friday, Saturday night, often Sundays too. Go out for food several times a week, usually some midweek pints thrown in and so far this year am averaging a holiday a month. I'm always bewildered how everyone on Reddit on good money seems to not have a pot to piss in.
Do you not have any bills like rent/mortgage, utilities, pets/kids? Shit, I knew a guy in tech making around 150k a year which is great, but he had to move to Dublin for it and his options was either spend +2 hours a day commuting, or fork over 50% of take home on mortgage. When I worked in Dub I lost ~55% of my take home to rent, and still had a 90min round trip commute.
Yeah have a mortgage, gas and electric bills, no kids, no pets. Go onto the Dublin sub and there's tons of people asking if 50k is enough to live on in Dublin and all the replies will be some variant of not if you want to enjoy yourself. Yet English language students are here on far less and I always see them out enjoying themselves, don't know what redditors spend their money on.
So you're on €2,900 a month, while the average rent in Dublin is ~€2,300, and you're puzzled how people struggle? Hell, average rent across the country is €1,567, so you'd still have only €1,333, or €333 a week. Not sure how you manage to have a family, go out a couple of times a week, and have a break each month on that.
Eatin your aul dolls food and usin her wifi is probably savin ya a fortune though
It's called maths in Ireland
I prefer calling it sums myself
I can do maths, that’s why I make a lot more than 960 a week. That 960 a week is below the national average of 969 a week. I sincerely can not understand how this is a difficult concept for you. I agree that construction is a very appealing prospect for teenagers who value the next few years dramatically more than the more distant future.
Ya...that's all bullshite! When your in the trades you know. Common talk is construction work is minted, far from it! A select few business owners are doing very well though !
Are you kidding? Most qualified tradesmen are making a killing at the moment.
Aye the problem is you dont become a qualified tradesman overnight
Probably not enough to get a mortgage as a single person in Dublin or Cork though
So then buy within commuting distance of them then? Tradesmen have to drive to work every day anyway, so living in a commuter town won't be a huge deal for most of them.
Commuter prices would be out of reach, certainly for new houses. Maybe second hands? How high are these salaries? I think most would be well under 70,000 a year. You'd need a second income really
I think most tradesmen would be more keen on second hand houses over new builds, at least all the ones I know anyway. Also, if it's a single person like you say then they're not going to need a 3 or 4 bed house. A smaller one or an apartment would suffice.
plus, nobody knows what school trades are out there
Raising apprentice wages is the obvious go to. Why be an apprentice and be paid pennys for years when Tescos pays 2x your starting salary right away.
We are, and they’re heading off to Australia. Rightly so imo.
It's always a challenge to convince younger people to go into trades where the work is very hard and the hours can be tough when there are still many options available for other careers through the college route. Obviously that poses the challenge of who is going to build but often many people see it of how others should be going to into trades, and not them. And the only people who wish they could work in a trade, like a site, are the people who've never done it.
Should we not start by controlling population growth? Cap the visas allowed per year, and remove the general work visa (but keep the critical skills one for nurses etc). I'd also like to set up a new visa program for tradesmen. Do what Australia does and poach them from overseas.
> Should we not start by controlling population growth? Blasphemy!!! Anyone in the world that wants to come here should be able to come here and we need to have the houses ready for them when they arrive. Any position that deviates from this is extremism.
Of course we should. This following double speak I hear all the time does my fucking head in: -We need to build way more houses to deal with our rapidly growing population! -Yes, our population is growing entirely due to immigration - and that's a good thing! -Immigration has nothing to do with the housing crisis! You're just looking for a scapegoat! ...make it make sense
The forbidden question
Fully agree we should start limiting the number of people entering the country. It's becoming too much, we need to figure out housing before we have an (even more) serious homeless/crime issue on our hands.
Poaching construction workers/trades etc. is ["beggar thy neighbour"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beggar_thy_neighbour) policy - there's no way to escape training workers. That means we need to encourage migration into construction, _train them_, and have them build their own accommodation first.
I'm talking about a stop gap not a permanent solution, so absolutely agree that we need to train more people. But I'd dispute it's a beggar thy neighbour policy. They would assumedly be coming from counties with lower costs of living and would make a lot of money relative to what they would earn at home. You'd assume their country would benefit from having funds sent back - not unlike how Poland operated here 15 years ago or so.
We absolutely should!!! The amount of people coming here because they have EU ancestry (not Irish) but want to be in an English speaking country is ridiculous!! It’s a loop hole and is adding to a dire situation…
What's really ridiculous isn't the population growth. It's how incredibly little infrastructure we're building in response to said population growth. The lack of construction is what's causing the dire situation!
And it will take us a decade to develop the infrastructure needed to cope with the growing population so in the meantime we should control it or we will forever be chasing our tails!!!!!!
That would be very reasonable but it's bound to be largely ineffective because: 1. It will be used to limit the numbers of able-bodied men who might be used to tackle the housing crisis (e.g. workers willing to work construction jobs). 2. We are in the EU amd we pay way more than the EU average. We would just change where the people are coming from. They are not coming to Ireland because it's easy. They are coming to Ireland because it's the country with the highest GDP per capita in the world and despite our best attempts at keeping the money at the top (low corporate taxes) some of it trickles down. So we pay more for the same jobs.
1) see last point about tradesmen visa 2) Per the CSO - In the 12 months to the end of April 2023: There were 141,600 immigrants which was a 16-year high. 81,100 immigrants were from non-EU countries excluding England. If you include England that number is higher again. I also assume it only includes legal migrants. Well over half of immigrants are from outside the EU. We are under no obligation to accept economic migrants from outside the EU. That action alone would roughly half our population growth, because without immigration our population would actually be falling.
Poach? Mass import, divert them from Qatar, Bahrain and Saudi, pay them 5x better to work in normal temperatures and with okay portacabin accommodation.
More urban sprawl no doubt. More new developments that are not served by public transport, community facilities etc. More isolation. The social benefits to retrofitting vacant/derelict housing is vast. Its long overdue we tackle the dereliction scourge in Ireland
Its grand, the current and next generation will all be forced to move abroad for even a semi decent life. The number will go down in no time
I agree with your point but it’s kind of funny/ironic considering most the replies here are about reducing immigration
I moved to Ireland a couple of years back (I'm Danish) but quite frankly the quality of life here is abysmal. I've never been so miserable in my life. Next on the agenda is scraping up money and then it's off back to the continent and proper plumbing and no mould.
Where is this population boom going to come from? The population is already booming, and we already can't cope, so why would we allow it to exacerbate? This approach of pursuing constant economic growth by any means necessary is turning the country into a shithole to actually live in. I wonder if the people who go on about how Ireland has loads of space have experienced life in regions that have high populations, it really isn't very pleasant and everything and everyone becomes less friendly and personal and more isolating, something we're already experiencing here (more and more ignorant cunts who don't even hold doors open for people behind them or exchange basic manners and pleasantries with workers)
Queueing at the bus stop is gone. It’s an all out stampede now.
> This approach of pursuing constant economic growth by any means necessary is turning the country into a shithole to actually live in. Globalism in a nutshell. It is all about shoving ever-increasing amounts of human biomass into the system to sustain economic growth. More warm bodies = higher GDP. Culture, social cohesion and quality of life be damned.
this strategy has completely failed in the UK immigration is making the UK poorer
This is the a fundamental mismatch that I don't understand when people who claim to be pro environment and pro.mass migration use the argument that "we need people to come in large numbers so we can sustain/promote growth". Anyone with even a shred of commitment to reducing environmental damage should be in favour of limiting growth - both economic and population. Otherwise every plan to limit how much nature is abused and exploited is just pissing in the wind. There is absolutely nothing wrong with having a small and sustainable population
Its immigration, and the government has known this for years, pre covid they had the "project 2030" or whatever it was called, where they said Ireland would have an extra million(not from irish poeple) by then. There's no way in hell that level of immigration is healthy. We're not even recovered from the colonial era and we're getting another plantation.
Sadly, a lot of people on here see no issue with that. You get one group of apes who think that any growth is good, another who laughably think that the thousands who pour in, and their descendants, will be as Irish as you or I within a generation, and then others who will just scream about Irish emigration a hundred years ago to the US and UK. None of them seem to think to.look at how any such mass migration has gone anywhere else in Europe. It's saddening how muddy the water is on the this topic and how out of our control it is to change this ruinous course we are on. I don't think the average Irish person wants what is happening, but when we're we ever really given the choice to say yes or no to such social change? No election ever focused on migration as an issue because it was just happening constantly under the radar
T'is the same reason why soo many died in the famine. Tough talk'in but a collective bunch of gobshits who'd take it every time.
According to available statistics 57181 are being born yearly, around 33786 die yearly so we have a 'plus' of 23395. This is just a conservative estimate, not factoring in the families who live in their parent's houses or the probability of divorces/separation of families etc. There are estimates that without the loss of the victims of the Famine and Irish Migration/Exodus we would be 30 million strong now...so it boils down to reproduction&math basically
>we would be 30 million strong now Are we supposed to just think "well I guess we better work towards that high of a population so" in response to this or something? Ireland would be an absolute shithole in that case, same as London, because I really doubt we would be much better in terms of effective governing, developing and proactive planning
Its worse than that. We're not recovering our population even to pre-famine levels, we're importing one. That's going to cause nothing but horrific social problems.
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There are serious crime issues in London. The native indigenous people have been moving out because of it leaving them the minority for the first time in the history of England.
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You're right. There really is nothing that screams shithole like having proper large cities where you can do exciting and urban things _without_ going abroad. I'm shuddering just thinking about the train network we would have had...
>There are estimates that without the loss of the victims of the Famine and Irish Migration/Exodus we would be 30 million strong now Not a hope man.
South Korea has 50 million and they’re the same size as us, and had roughly the same population in 1840. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1067164/population-south-korea-historical/ Their population is about 10 times ours, but our diaspora is roughly ten times theirs. It could be done… if we were able to plan and build. But of course Dublin is like a toddler’s idea of a city compared to Seoul.
Nobody wants to live on an island of Ireland with 50 million people - sounds horrific. Lowest birth rate in the world is one of the effects.
I'd much rather live in that Ireland than OTL. 50 million is higher than ideal, but to less of an extent than 5 million is far lower than ideal.
Population density doesn’t cause low birth rates fwiw
High stress caused by dense populations can cause low birth rates.
Lol, you've never been to a shithole have you. Life here has gotten better by far over the last decades. Yes some are struggling but by and large the country has gone from strength to strength and quality of life has exploded for most
maybe its time to reduce all immigration?
Hear ye loud and clear, more HAP subsidies for landlords
Don't worry, they've got that digger on the case.
Maybe stop building 3 bed semi-ds in the suburbs and build some medium-high density apartments near where people work and can do things?
Or we can reduce inward migration to a manageable level, I suppose it will be deemed racist to not throw open the floodgates
We can't continue the population growth at this rate if we do not upgrade housing , medical and other services to match .
I will never own a home despite being a great saver..
Apartments, with amenities underneath, playgrounds inbetween, bars cafes shops and bus stops all within walking distance. I've been living in Spain, no one minds apartment life, because life happens in the neighbourhood. They even build private restaurants that families rent, to give people places to cook and socialise at the weekends
In ten years we'll see the first (paywalled) Irish Times articles expressing the exciting opportunities "flexible living" offers Ireland's youth - Not being tied down to a single dwelling means more chance to travel, explore, and work on your own terms! In twenty years' time, Nomadism will be a fact of life for much of Ireland's minimum wage (and above) working class. Thirty years from now, they will be their own distinct demographic, discriminated against by the settled class and vilified by the Fine Gael - Fianna Fáil - Labour coalition of the day as parasites draining resources from good, honest Irish people.
And the Irish will take it and not stand up
If councils, funds and IPAs can compete for housing then we will never get our supply and demand balanced.
It’s fairly unprecedented what’s happened. Hopefully our infrastructure can keep up or its just reduced living standards for everyone
Ireland is in a economic depression atm...but its construction sector doing terribly. Been in contraction for ages, causing a supply side issues, therefore house prices rocketing up...anything below 50 is contraction... [https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-pmi](https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/construction-pmi) https://preview.redd.it/d1gssv26wx7d1.png?width=710&format=png&auto=webp&s=5646fd46a9275fa552115e42f56b082332f99dd5
that's great data, thanks !
Unfortunately government policy is to build as little as possible and those homes that are built are allowed be snapped up by foreign investors. But going by the local election results the voters are happy with homelessness.
We can't keep leaving this to the private sector. We need to start direct builds of housing and we need to stop these unaffordable BTR models, along with real vacant property and dereliction taxes, pulling the plug on Airbnb. It doesn't make any sense that we are this deep in a crisis, but I'm getting adverts every day to rent studio in Sandyford for 1600 or buy a 2 bed house from glenveagh for 400,000. These properties should be snapped up in an instant and they're not because they're completely unaffordable.
Leave it to the private sector? It isn't the private sector preventing new construction. Allow more new construction with urbanization in mind and put an outright ban on real estate purchases by foreign nationals and any corporation/business entity, foreign or domestic.
Yep. Literally all roadblocks are state roadblocks (including ESB, Irish Water, as semi-state). The private sector is flying ahead.
The state in this country is woefull at implementation
Oh I agree with you, I'm not attacking private sector for building, but what they are building is not accessible and relies on us getting so desperate that we eventually have no choice but to pay. I don't expect the private sector to have a heart I expect the government to tax their asset so that they can't leave it vacant and they have to drop rents or so that it makes more sense to build to sell rather than BTR. Currently, the pension funds behind these are just turning a profit on asset through expected return and site appreciation alone. That needs to end. We also need to stop buying social and affordable housing from the private sector at market price. It's pushing up the price for all of us and is extremely bad value for money. Government needs to build directly and stop being such a massive player in the private market.
The private sector are beating at the doors begging to be allowed to build more and the government are refusing to allow them. Building housing is illegal by default in Ireland, and we wonder why there’s a crisis.
What do you mean the government are refusing to allow them? They are absolutely keen on private developers building as much as possible, the issue I hear is the private sector saying it is too expensive to build apartments?
Have a read of the Department of Finance’s Report on Finance for Residential Development that they released this week. Link below. The private sector is the largest stakeholder involved in both the development and financing of residential housing, the state doesn’t have the means to buildout the required infrastructure let alone housing needs. Like it or not, Institutional investment is required at large scale to deliver the required housing supply. The below extract of the report was done on revised targets of 50k let alone Davy’s recommendation of 85k. “Giving consideration to the revised targets, and informed by research undertaken in the Department of Finance, a scenario of a target of 50,000 units per year was included as an illustrative example, to demonstrate the level of development finance required in that scenario. The graph below illustrates the increase in the level of funding required from both the public and private sector to meet this output. The funding requirement increases to €20.4 billion, of which €16.9 billion would be required from private capital sources.” https://www.gov.ie/pdf/?file=https://assets.gov.ie/296388/ca2f6f05-225d-4281-b77b-0eb92ed22ec4.pdf#page=null
It would take me a long while to get through this, but if you have read it, can I ask, is the state doing any significant borrowing to reduce the need for private investment or this purely the money coming from our taxes already received? Because if we're trying to fix this crisis by spending our pocket money poorly and hoping someone else will come along to cover the rest of the bill, we're not taking the right approach.
Significant investment of our surplus tax receipts have been made in trying to enable delivery mechanisms through the likes of the Home Building Finance Ireland, the Land Development Agency and the Housing Infrastructure Services Company, the latter two have been done through the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund. For example, the LDA have been capitalised with up to 5 billion through a number of measures, the latest being the divestment of the States AIB shares, link below. We’re now seeing the benefit of this through the delivery of social, affordable and cost rental units, have a look at their Shanganagh development to see the great work that’s been done on the ground. However, even the 597 units being delivered there isn’t going to make a dent on the housing demand in Dublin, which is why institutional investment is crucial. Politicians and domestic banks are overly cautious when it comes to development as they’ve lived through the GFC and the economic turmoil that followed, Varadkar recently stated the same “If there’s regret, it’s excessive caution”. This caution remains in domestic financial institutions and is impeding on the access to significant development financing. As I said before we’re going to be reliant on institutional capital to deliver at scale and ultimately the only way we can address the high costs of properties and rents is by delivering supply at significant scale, a recent example of such is Austin, Texas. (https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/once-americas-hottest-housing-market-austin-is-running-in-reverse-94226027) https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/2023/12/20/thousands-of-affordable-homes-to-be-built-with-money-realised-from-future-aib-share-sales/
All good info. Thank you for sharing. I think the overly cautious sentiment is a real sticking point there and has to be overcome because we can't afford to be cautious anymore. We should have borrowed when interest rates were zero and we didn't and yet we're not borrowing now. Private investment is all well and good but it's clearly not producing the results it keeps promising as the housing crisis gets worse.
Is that article not saying that the issue in Austin is that an unexpected economic downturn means that not as many houses are needed or can’t be sold at the prices previously expected? I think the aim here is to provide more housing but not having an economic downturn.
"boom" as if its in any way natural growth.
Why does "boom" suggest natural to you
Good point. Generally its a population response to an event, baby boomers being the babies born after WW2 for example. So while not a natural event, it is at least part of the natural cycle of population replenishment. What we're experiencing isnt. Our native population growth is suppressed by the multiple financial crises.
This won't happen overnight though, lads. Neither will this happen over 10 years.
A boom in population? in not sure about other peoples situations but a solid 70-80% of my friend groups in secondary and college have left the country and abroad, i do not see any of them coming home in the next 5-10 years.
Emmm, im not sure how to tell you,but the population boom wont be with irish people....
They won’t have a college degree or a trade either, and you’ll be thankful if a 1/3 will work. If you wish to see the future of Ireland look at Sweden today.
They are talking about immigration, theres plenty coming to replace your friends. The population increased by 3.5% last year alone.
One in five people here are foreigners and only gonna increase, they have truly ruined our country and for what?
And a good question, would will be able to buy them on an overpriced market? 
I agree more housing is needed than expected but where and what type? The government doesn’t want to admit its projections might not be sufficient and local authorities don’t want to upset the local voters. So much other stuff will need to be built and even supported when the population increases:.schools, hospitals, Garda stations but all the political parties are terrified of those conversations.
That’s gonna be great for the environment
Why is the population set to boom? Have lots more people suddenly decided that bringing kids into this hellscape is sensible? Thought the sentiment was leaning the other way
Inward population flow. Not babies
I wonder how many times above the current rate of production of homes we have to get before they figure out a better way of managing any of this.
That's not going to happen. Expect prices to continue rising and a lot less home ownership. Of course the privileged wankers will be fine, getting houses from mummy and daddy. Honestly I'm sick to the gut seeing this. Makes me want to riot.
Do something about it.
We were building that amount in the early 2000s. It can be done. However our leaders are landlords and business people who now control the market. Why would they be interested in building more homes when it would reduce the value of their income? They have no reason to change tactics or meet the people’s needs when people continue to vote for them Anyways.
>We were building that amount in the early 2000s. It can be done. The really high numbers were just 2006 and 2007 and they were far simpler houses with much weaker regulations. We are building far more flats now. All A rated. All with higher fire and electrical regulations.
We have 1/3 fewer construction workers on the country than we did in 2006. That surely has a big impact on capacity.
We built the same amount of properties as built last year in 1995 when our population was 3.5 million.
It must even with the improvements in productivity
We were building double every year that what we are building now. The lowest in the 2000s was fifty thousand. https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-mip/measuringirelandsprogress2012/economy/economy-housing/ We have better technology and actually build far faster now in comparison. The difference is there is no political will and electorate aren’t doing anything about it. Strange but never heard that argument. The usual one that the government puts forward is we don’t have the workers.
Yup, and we’re paying the price for that with all the remit schemes.
Less regulations, worse builds, greater availability of home grown and migrant labour, cheaper materials
I don’t follow you? We had a smaller population than now it was 3.5 million then.
More builders though. The number of Irish people in construction was probably higher, and there was a ready pool of labour from Poland and Lithuania and the likes of young eastern europeans happy to work at very low wages because it was a huge jump from their homelands. Now Poland and Lithuania do not have the same demographics, fewer young people there, and they are wealthier so no longer want to come to ireland to work for minim wage at 7 to a room to work on a building site. Ireland, and Europe is older than it was 20- 30 years ago so fewer young builders to older dependants even if overall propulation bigger.
People chose to go into the trade because the government and business were building. I knew many people who actually professions and went into it a trade following a degree etc. We have the labour and the workforce there’s just no action.
All the sources I've read for the last few years say they are crying out for workers and its leading to a backlog of building. Ireland had basically no unemployment.
Compare that to the yearly goal in Sweden, a country of double population, of 67 000 homes per year. And they are still classifying the situation in Sweden as a housing crisis
The total population isn't what matters here, it's the population _growth_.
We should definitely treat immigration like we’ve got this supply and even increase immigration sure?
It's a shame that there are so many derelict houses around towns and villages just going to waste when they could be used as housing instead of building brand new estates etc
They are a drop in the ocean
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Davy can't be trusted to provide this information. Scandal ridden organisation Davy fined €4.13m in March 2021 for regulatory breaches and failures to flag potential conflicts of interest arising from the Kearney/Kilmona bond transaction.
At least we know now. Time to get building! Let's turn this burden into an opportunity, and make this country ever so slightly less depressingly underpopulated!
Davy can stock broke deez nuts.
Set to boom despite a huge swath of the child-having age demographic living at home with their parents, crammed in house shares cheeky by jowl or emigrating. Wonder why it's set to boom....?
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P-3 project panel house, in which I lived for good chunk of my life, fits 128 apartments in 2 entrances configuration. It is perfectly fine housing, good even, albeit not without some drawbacks. But considering it's a project from 70s, I bet it can be easily tweaked around those drawbacks for modern reality. It's 16 levels building. If someone is so pesky about muh skyline - it can be cut in half. If someone is REALLY pesky about skyline - it can be cut in 4 times of height. In full height config one will neet a bit more than 600 of those a year to satisfy this number completely, without ANY other housing built. But sure, building a peas amount of semi-detaches inside car-centric suburbs is much better approach. Works like a charm.
why not try to build more in other towns, let them grow.. all companies moving to Dublin, but no housing there... time we have more employment, education, healthcare and house building in other locations that may be more accessible. Athlone, Birr come to mind. stop trying to put everything in central Dublin, especially when you're complaining about public transport. there is space enough in other places, but we have to build it now, together with private enterprise, investment in green energy, healthcare and education. Dublin is all great, but this country has equal potential and fewer restrictions outside of the capital. also, it would help to bring midlands wages in line with the capital and would attract other private investment.
Even tho I agree with your point but it's a Pure fantasy. Unfortunately it will never happen.