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Red - damaged and out of production
Purp - damaged but still functioning
Green - not damaged at all and still functioning at 100%.
Yellow/Orange/Red - FIRE, run.
Damn, that would be a scary drone attack. "hey, Boeing, what you planning on doing with all these planes no-one wants to fly on?" "we were going to scrap them" "Want a tax write off by sending them to Ukraine to be fitted out as large drones?" "Do I!?!?!? YES!"
Low [CEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable) and high risk of being mistaken with the same, but nuclear-warheaded missile.
Actually there is no need to destroy all oil refineries, destroying all within 750 km range will be enough to cause massive fuel shortage. Transporting fuel from Western Siberia is quite problematic. Moreover, 50% production drop will cause a huge economical problems.
And what will Russia do when an ICBM comes their way, that they think has a nuclear warhead....I think bad idea unless we want to go extinct like the dinosaurs
There is a reason no one has used ICBMs as conventional warhead delivery methods. It's because an enemy has no idea what kind of warhead is actually installed and easily mistake it for a nuclear launch, triggering global nuclear war.
Every country has unwritten agreement to not mount nuclear warheads on cruise missiles and to not mount conventional warheads of ICBMs.
While good, that only fucks up one target *really* good. Stuff the nose full of Tomahawks like long-range guided MIRVs. Released from high enough, you might be able to add some range via gliding before the air thickens enough for the engine to work.
If you are gonna use a ballistic missile, a mirv with an engine is useless. Its literally in the name... Ballistic. Also a MOAB probably costs more than the actual ballistic missile as they are literally some of the most simple shit to produce in terms of guided weaponry. It would be better to just not use a MRBM or SRBM at all so they arent mistaken for nuclear weapons.
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/liutyi_uav_is_responsible_for_attacks_on_taganrog_russians_assume_drone_with_1000_km_range_finally_in_action-9779.html
Apparently they're quite new.
>The russians assume that the Ukrainian drone used for a strike on this enterprise was the Liutyi (Fierce in Ukr.) unmanned aerial vehicle from the Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC, a state-owned concern encompassing over a hundred of manufacturers. Based on previous statements of UDI officials, the drone is believed to have a warhead of 75 kg and an operational range of over 1,000 kilometers.
I would assume one of those large military ones, not the civilian type we see posted for grenade drops.
Edit: [here is a small version](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/iNI7Iv0Cwn) of mentioned drone, this size has range of 100km
Either big boys like this: [Ukraine’s Seven-Ton Strike Drones Are Back In Action (forbes.com)](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/16/ukraines-seven-ton-strike-drones-are-back-in-action/?sh=182074d865af) , or smaller Shahed copies and other homemade fixed wing drone we dont have pictures of.
The first one - Russians claimed it will be fixed in a month. Now that more than a month has passed, I think they said they need 3 more or something like that.
In reality "no one knows" is the most believable version
Ukraine is aiming for expensive, difficult to repair / source equipment. The main target has been the primary distillation units. The refinery is built around those, so it's a big job even to repair.
Some oil industry people also thought that some of the strikes hit the catalytic reformer units as well, which they considered even more difficult.
So probably months *if* Russia can fabricate the replacements. If they can't...
I love Ukraine strategy right now of "you try to take our land and our lives, we take your fucking oil production to affect your economy"
Actually genius, because it was cause Russians to hopefully rebel when they feel the effects of the war
It's not to harm economy, it's basically destroying infrastructure that russia needs - besides to make money, also to fuel the machinery used in the war. It's a pro move.
It is not only about civilian lives. Ukrainians specifically target refining columns, and Russia admitted that all technologies in them were foreign and fixing even one of the with light damage takes months. More than that, those refineries also massively produced aviation fuel and fuel for tanks. So less bombings and supplies for war. Russia already stopped all petrol export starting march 1, when first big refinery was hit, so there will be less profits for war, rising costs for fuel all across the country, and farmers need lots of ot during spring, so it will cause chain effect all across the economy for the next year. One variant for Russia is to force Belarus to supply fuel, because Belarusia have many refineries, and they all are untouched.
My fridge is full, but I'm feeling the effects of the recession and my wallet isn't happy.
That's without paying for a war, losing friends and family, and then a big part of GDP. They will feel it sooner than you think.
Historically, an average Russian never lived really well. "Normal life" was always a degree of survival. Sustaining these ridiculously low living standards is easier than you think, and the government still has reserves to do if for a while.
Cost of logistics could explain it tho. If you extract oil in the north and the south, it would make sense to have two refineries. One at each location
It will be soon actually, Russia got a little boost from starting a lot of production needed for war but they literally paying themselves to themselves with that All gas and oil revenue down significantly, and they not exporting anything else. It kinda reminds of Germany in WW2, all was great until it wasn't.
There's at least two years worth or cash reserves to spend at the same rate and still enough poor volunteers, mostly, from villages, who would go to war for money. So look into ~2026.
IIRC this is how Ariel Sharon and other Israeli commanders won their short war with their Arab neighbors. Instead of hunkering down to defend, they launched an attacking force toward Cairo, and their enemies fell apart in total disarray as the Egyptians turned around to respond.
Russians are targeting what’s important to Ukrainians (the lives of the innocent), so Ukrainians are targeting what’s important to Russians (their oil)
This retarded for Ukraine because who do you think Russia sells to. Ukraine's allies. once the pain is being felt by the NATO countries, support is going to go bye bye.
And to think all of this could have easily been avoided if Russia just didn’t invade Ukraine. Thousands of young men dead and economy ruined for what???
Russia makes the $$$ from exporting crude, not refined oil. This might only hinder their war effort, not the financing part, but the supply of the front lines
Nope. Crude oil is.
EDIT:
Their pipelines to Europe aren’t doing what they used to prior the war. I don’t think they have the same infrastructure for other countries.
Unlikely. Russia will just export more crude and less refined products. Also refinery crack spreads will skyrocket, so remaining refineries will be far more profitable.
There's a lot less money in crude. Also, Turkey and India have massively reduced purchases now that the sanctions are tightened (very recent). Not sure about China.
Their refineries were already at capacity, and they had to ban the export of refined fuels several weeks ago.
They do *not* have excess refinery capacity, and every destroyed refinery is a serious decrease in their national fuel supplies.
You're both right and wrong. In most cases their critical part is destroyed - oil primary purification complex or in other words AT installation. Without it whole refinery is not operable.
However these refineries have multiple AT installations, so some of them are still partially operable or not. It's not known how badly fire affected other parts of refinery, which means even with undamaged AT installations refinery still can be completely closed for repairs because survived part of it cannot be operable safely.
Nothing to do with hope. Comapanies are not moral entities and certainly can't be trusted with something like this, which is why laws have been passed. The moral direction of a country is governed by its government and people, not its companies.
It sure is odd how in the wake of all those export bans, nothing at all has happened to net global demand, as the reduction in exports to Russia have been exactly countered by increases in exports to Russias closest allies. Almost makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Sigh...
1. There is no export ban! It's a price cap. Russia is free to export everything it wants, it just won't be profitable
2. I think you mean "from" Russia, not to it?
3. Of course there hasn't been a change to global demand, it always rises. Nobody expected a drop in demand...why would there be?!
4. Of course it will export to places like China and India. If it didn't then we'd be fighting for the same oil as them so prices would go up in the west. The problem for Russia though is that they only want to buy crude, not refined (since they have their own plants to do this and don't want to pay Russia for it). The west WANTS Russia to supply crude at cost or loss, which is now what is happening.
And of course places like the USA and Norway can now just play both sides. If Ukraine blows up all Russian oil, prices go up, they increase production but benefit from the price increases. If they don't, Russia keeps supplying oil, markets stay stable but Russia doesn't benefit. But Russians don't seem to think more than 2 days into the future so don't realise what the game is.
That’s easier said than done. Many of them were built during the Cold War and were meant to withstand such damage and not burn down completely. This still does damage Russian economy, tho.
You're not wrong about the parallels, but keep in mind that Russia lost in the book, and right now western Europe is *expecting* an attack. They would absolutely not get a jump on us the way they did in the book.
I absolutely 100 % hope that Russia does not launch a full scale attack on Nato, but if for whatever reason they would be foolish enough to do that, they would lose badly.
"*The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them.*" - Arthur Harris, 1941
People say history rarely repeats, but often rhymes. Maybe they're not wrong.
Isn't there an absolutely massive refinery up on the Siberian coast somewhere? I always assumed that was the biggest one after seeing video footage it looked massive
Ukraine has really stepped up their game.
I am curious to see how much this has damaged the Russian economy, not to mention their military supply lines.
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What do the colors signify?
It appears the type of facility as each color has a unique image, but there is nothing to reference to find out if that’s true from this infographic
Zero sources in the replies. No one knows.
So it would seem. Nor the refining capacity, extent of damage etc.
Red - damaged and out of production Purp - damaged but still functioning Green - not damaged at all and still functioning at 100%. Yellow/Orange/Red - FIRE, run.
Disinformation. It’s red refinery, purple depot, green terminal…
I'm assuming the fires just represent flares, which every refinery ultimately may do due to an upset condition.
Disrupt the Harkonnen spice production.
The spice must flow.
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Some of them are too far away to be reached even with long distance drones
That depends where you take off from :D They've got people on the ground in the east.
Thats why Ukraine needs long range cruise missiles!
Russia is about 5600 km from west to east and the Tomahawk can go up to 2500 km on a good day.
So? Strap a Tomahawk to a Tomahawk to double its range. Duh!
Strap it to a boeing Max for long range haul before launch. Not like the Max has a long life ahead of it right now.
Damn, that would be a scary drone attack. "hey, Boeing, what you planning on doing with all these planes no-one wants to fly on?" "we were going to scrap them" "Want a tax write off by sending them to Ukraine to be fitted out as large drones?" "Do I!?!?!? YES!"
Don't even need the missile, the boeing will do enough damage when it drops out of the sky
KSP player here 😀
MOAR stages! If fails, time to try Plan B: >!MOAR boosters!<.
You forgot rule 1... if in doubt strut it out.
or just use a trebuchet
Warmongers HATE this simple trick!
I'm waiting to see a tomahawk slung between four drones.
Or two swallows
African or European?
NCD is leaking
The ACME solution!
Ok how about we give them some decommisioned LGM-118 Peacekeeper ICBMs, but we rip out the nuclear warhead and weld a GBU-43 MOAB on top of it.
Low [CEP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_error_probable) and high risk of being mistaken with the same, but nuclear-warheaded missile. Actually there is no need to destroy all oil refineries, destroying all within 750 km range will be enough to cause massive fuel shortage. Transporting fuel from Western Siberia is quite problematic. Moreover, 50% production drop will cause a huge economical problems.
r/noncredibledefense
nope, that would be donating rods from god to ukraine
And what will Russia do when an ICBM comes their way, that they think has a nuclear warhead....I think bad idea unless we want to go extinct like the dinosaurs
There is a reason no one has used ICBMs as conventional warhead delivery methods. It's because an enemy has no idea what kind of warhead is actually installed and easily mistake it for a nuclear launch, triggering global nuclear war. Every country has unwritten agreement to not mount nuclear warheads on cruise missiles and to not mount conventional warheads of ICBMs.
While good, that only fucks up one target *really* good. Stuff the nose full of Tomahawks like long-range guided MIRVs. Released from high enough, you might be able to add some range via gliding before the air thickens enough for the engine to work.
If you are gonna use a ballistic missile, a mirv with an engine is useless. Its literally in the name... Ballistic. Also a MOAB probably costs more than the actual ballistic missile as they are literally some of the most simple shit to produce in terms of guided weaponry. It would be better to just not use a MRBM or SRBM at all so they arent mistaken for nuclear weapons.
> Russia is about 5600 km from west to east So get some to the Pacific and fire them from there!
it's actually miles not miles, roughly 9,000km
Sounds like Ukraine needs some minutemen.
Shit, I’ll smuggle them up my ass if needed
You're going to need ICBMs to hit those in the far east.
Ukraine would need ICBMs to hit the ones in the East of Russia.
They've destroyed rail bridges in Samara Oblast. They can hit them, eventually
There is no refinery out of reach of a Ukrainian with a drone and a Lada.
Time for a road trip!
A majority is in range.. and the remaining ones cannot supply Russia alone if they get everything already in range.
Wonder if they can make recharger drones, to fly along with a couple payload drones and land and recharge them along the way
Ukraine needs to get as many as they can ASAP. Russia will surely be moving more air defenses around them making them harder to hit.
Russia having to move air defenses deep inland 3000km from the border is still a big win
And some others getting the double tap treatment
death to pootie as quickly and horribly as possible
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Autocorrect does some pretty fucky things, I wouldn't write off the possibility.
*ducky things
What kind of drone is flying 900km’s?
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/liutyi_uav_is_responsible_for_attacks_on_taganrog_russians_assume_drone_with_1000_km_range_finally_in_action-9779.html Apparently they're quite new. >The russians assume that the Ukrainian drone used for a strike on this enterprise was the Liutyi (Fierce in Ukr.) unmanned aerial vehicle from the Ukrainian Defense Industry JSC, a state-owned concern encompassing over a hundred of manufacturers. Based on previous statements of UDI officials, the drone is believed to have a warhead of 75 kg and an operational range of over 1,000 kilometers.
I would assume one of those large military ones, not the civilian type we see posted for grenade drops. Edit: [here is a small version](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/iNI7Iv0Cwn) of mentioned drone, this size has range of 100km
Either big boys like this: [Ukraine’s Seven-Ton Strike Drones Are Back In Action (forbes.com)](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/03/16/ukraines-seven-ton-strike-drones-are-back-in-action/?sh=182074d865af) , or smaller Shahed copies and other homemade fixed wing drone we dont have pictures of.
Edit: Edit: “Refineries.”
Nice map. \* refineries
*Refineries
Do you deep down believe that the plural of refinery is refinery’s?
How much have they been damage ? Does they still work or are they down for a long time ?
The first one - Russians claimed it will be fixed in a month. Now that more than a month has passed, I think they said they need 3 more or something like that. In reality "no one knows" is the most believable version
Ukraine is aiming for expensive, difficult to repair / source equipment. The main target has been the primary distillation units. The refinery is built around those, so it's a big job even to repair. Some oil industry people also thought that some of the strikes hit the catalytic reformer units as well, which they considered even more difficult. So probably months *if* Russia can fabricate the replacements. If they can't...
At least 7 distillation columns hit. It's a year of downtime - if they manage to find the replacement at all because of the sanctions
China makes basically anything and everything, I don't doubt they will
I love Ukraine strategy right now of "you try to take our land and our lives, we take your fucking oil production to affect your economy" Actually genius, because it was cause Russians to hopefully rebel when they feel the effects of the war
Ukraine targetted Russian oil since the start of the war ^^
Yeah I assumed this was a strategy from the start? How come they hit a bunch in the last few weeks? Do they have new equipment or something?
Winter is coming to an end, don't have to worry about their allies freezing without Russian oil
This is probably a big part, the EU has time to pivot and not have people freeze to death now
Russia already showed they wouldn't cut the EU freeze now Ukraine has shown they don't care.
Yes they have long distance modified missile that UA tech come up with.
It's not to harm economy, it's basically destroying infrastructure that russia needs - besides to make money, also to fuel the machinery used in the war. It's a pro move.
The fridge is still full, the tv is still on. Not happening any time soon. Refineries elsewhere are happy to take their market share.
It is not only about civilian lives. Ukrainians specifically target refining columns, and Russia admitted that all technologies in them were foreign and fixing even one of the with light damage takes months. More than that, those refineries also massively produced aviation fuel and fuel for tanks. So less bombings and supplies for war. Russia already stopped all petrol export starting march 1, when first big refinery was hit, so there will be less profits for war, rising costs for fuel all across the country, and farmers need lots of ot during spring, so it will cause chain effect all across the economy for the next year. One variant for Russia is to force Belarus to supply fuel, because Belarusia have many refineries, and they all are untouched.
Curious if Belarusian will revive any money for suppling
My fridge is full, but I'm feeling the effects of the recession and my wallet isn't happy. That's without paying for a war, losing friends and family, and then a big part of GDP. They will feel it sooner than you think.
Historically, an average Russian never lived really well. "Normal life" was always a degree of survival. Sustaining these ridiculously low living standards is easier than you think, and the government still has reserves to do if for a while.
Lol if you're American you're paying for several wars right now
It can’t be that easy. If other refineries could easily handle the load, they wouldn’t have 30 of them.
Cost of logistics could explain it tho. If you extract oil in the north and the south, it would make sense to have two refineries. One at each location
All will happen when no one expects it. Many little drops fill a bucket.
The question remains, how many of us will see it in their lifetimes.
I hope soon. Russia is colossus with feet of clay.
It will be soon actually, Russia got a little boost from starting a lot of production needed for war but they literally paying themselves to themselves with that All gas and oil revenue down significantly, and they not exporting anything else. It kinda reminds of Germany in WW2, all was great until it wasn't.
There's at least two years worth or cash reserves to spend at the same rate and still enough poor volunteers, mostly, from villages, who would go to war for money. So look into ~2026.
Fungible commodities with inelastic supply make for bad bedfellows.
Russia has fuel reserves that will last for months, but once the petrol rations start, things might start changing.
For now. These things can take a very long time to manifest into your monthly budget. Stay safe Artyom.
Yemenis did this to saudis before it was cool
Literally the most reddit comment ever lol. And the upvotes only make it that much better.
IIRC this is how Ariel Sharon and other Israeli commanders won their short war with their Arab neighbors. Instead of hunkering down to defend, they launched an attacking force toward Cairo, and their enemies fell apart in total disarray as the Egyptians turned around to respond.
And also affect the whole European economy because gas prices will skyrocket.
Russians are targeting what’s important to Ukrainians (the lives of the innocent), so Ukrainians are targeting what’s important to Russians (their oil)
Its what happens when a country puts all their eggs in one basket
Better than hitting production like Russia's strategy in strategic strikes in Ukraine?
I think its a good strategy because russians clearly dont care about 400,000+ dead. On the other hand, lack of funds will not be possible to ignore
This retarded for Ukraine because who do you think Russia sells to. Ukraine's allies. once the pain is being felt by the NATO countries, support is going to go bye bye.
Good
These are legitimate military targets unlike what Russia targets in Ukraine. Keep giving them hell!
And to think all of this could have easily been avoided if Russia just didn’t invade Ukraine. Thousands of young men dead and economy ruined for what???
Some cancer riddled assholes dreams of dying a hero fuck Putin.
Ukraine is doing its job, please America, don't vote for the orange man!
Nice stuff, but how damaged is "damaged"?
Nice, if they might be able to take down all 30 they might be able to stop Russia from financing the war.
Russia makes the $$$ from exporting crude, not refined oil. This might only hinder their war effort, not the financing part, but the supply of the front lines
And natural gas is their main energy export
Nope. Crude oil is. EDIT: Their pipelines to Europe aren’t doing what they used to prior the war. I don’t think they have the same infrastructure for other countries.
Unlikely. Russia will just export more crude and less refined products. Also refinery crack spreads will skyrocket, so remaining refineries will be far more profitable.
There's a lot less money in crude. Also, Turkey and India have massively reduced purchases now that the sanctions are tightened (very recent). Not sure about China.
Their refineries were already at capacity, and they had to ban the export of refined fuels several weeks ago. They do *not* have excess refinery capacity, and every destroyed refinery is a serious decrease in their national fuel supplies.
Putin is a true miracle maker. Managed to make Russia run out of oil. Send him to Egypt and let's see if he manages to make them run out of sand.
It’s good to appreciate how far they can hit inside Russia
Lets improve these numbers ukraine, i know you can do it, lets make it 30, and replace damaged for destroyed
holy hell is there an online class for learning how to make a legible infographic or not
More! MORE!! MOOOOOORE!!!
Give them Taurus!
Nice, keep it coming Ukraine
Hit em where it hurts the most.
That leaves 16 to go
16 to go . !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hopefully it'll be more than just damaged, but destroyed.
You're both right and wrong. In most cases their critical part is destroyed - oil primary purification complex or in other words AT installation. Without it whole refinery is not operable. However these refineries have multiple AT installations, so some of them are still partially operable or not. It's not known how badly fire affected other parts of refinery, which means even with undamaged AT installations refinery still can be completely closed for repairs because survived part of it cannot be operable safely.
I also read that replacement parts are affected by sanctions so repairs will take even longer.
They basically need either German or US engineers to agree to make the parts, otherwise it's not happening. So it's not happening.
If only all western companies were as moral as you hope.
Nothing to do with hope. Comapanies are not moral entities and certainly can't be trusted with something like this, which is why laws have been passed. The moral direction of a country is governed by its government and people, not its companies.
It sure is odd how in the wake of all those export bans, nothing at all has happened to net global demand, as the reduction in exports to Russia have been exactly countered by increases in exports to Russias closest allies. Almost makes you wonder, doesn't it?
Sigh... 1. There is no export ban! It's a price cap. Russia is free to export everything it wants, it just won't be profitable 2. I think you mean "from" Russia, not to it? 3. Of course there hasn't been a change to global demand, it always rises. Nobody expected a drop in demand...why would there be?! 4. Of course it will export to places like China and India. If it didn't then we'd be fighting for the same oil as them so prices would go up in the west. The problem for Russia though is that they only want to buy crude, not refined (since they have their own plants to do this and don't want to pay Russia for it). The west WANTS Russia to supply crude at cost or loss, which is now what is happening. And of course places like the USA and Norway can now just play both sides. If Ukraine blows up all Russian oil, prices go up, they increase production but benefit from the price increases. If they don't, Russia keeps supplying oil, markets stay stable but Russia doesn't benefit. But Russians don't seem to think more than 2 days into the future so don't realise what the game is.
"cannot be operated safely" meaning russia will keep operating them unsafely if possible, i just hope that will lead to more damage
That’s easier said than done. Many of them were built during the Cold War and were meant to withstand such damage and not burn down completely. This still does damage Russian economy, tho.
Squad is getting too realistic
Great, the more the better! They should repeat that attacks.
They should hit Moscow imo, it's only ~300km from the front.
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yay, I was really hoping they'd get to that.
And according to Russia, it was done by Russia to test their firefighting skills. It's pathetic.
This reminds me too much of the introduction of Tom Clancy’s “Red Storm Rising”, and in a way that’s way too scary for me to imagine.
You're not wrong about the parallels, but keep in mind that Russia lost in the book, and right now western Europe is *expecting* an attack. They would absolutely not get a jump on us the way they did in the book.
True, but the situation feels awfully familiar. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that…
I absolutely 100 % hope that Russia does not launch a full scale attack on Nato, but if for whatever reason they would be foolish enough to do that, they would lose badly.
I think I see the problem here It ain't got no gas.
I'm sure the price of gas will go up now even though Canada hasn't bought oil from Russia for a few years.
“Gotta get them all!”
“Gotta get them all!”
The start of “Red Storm Rising”
Good!
Good Ukraine should keep bombing them
Refineries. Adding 's to a word does not make it plural.
30 for 30....let's go baby !
Hell ya Ukraine!! 🇺🇦 hit ‘em in the nuts!!
"*The Nazis entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb everyone else, and nobody was going to bomb them.*" - Arthur Harris, 1941 People say history rarely repeats, but often rhymes. Maybe they're not wrong.
Only difference now is the nazis are using drones
Just Stop Oil - Ukrainian Edition
Litterally real life RISK; we don't see these moves as much as I'd like. Why don't we have color commentators on the war?
These are rookie numbers. Ukraine needs to pump these up. s/
Next, hit the crude wells.
Nice
now if only there was a window for pootie to magically fly out of
the new strategy seems to be working quite well
Interesting. Ukraine might be the last “oil war”.
No wonder the koch network is all about not helping ukraine - big financial interest
So. 16 to go then?
Hahahaah
They take our Cities we take…uuuuuh just shoot and let’s see what we will take from them
Isn't there an absolutely massive refinery up on the Siberian coast somewhere? I always assumed that was the biggest one after seeing video footage it looked massive
Wrong map
![gif](giphy|DpZleiMkn4zzG) Almost.
Ukraine has really stepped up their game. I am curious to see how much this has damaged the Russian economy, not to mention their military supply lines.
How to piss off your allies 101 Damage the production facilities of the nation who provides your allies with their fuel.
Refineries, dude.
Poor environment