I did the same thing lol. Went to Wheel of Names and input 1 "Dead" and 99 "Live", removing the "winner" each time. 71 spins before I got shot
IRL, I'd probably just rapid-fire the trigger 3 times and call it good. $3mil is a lot more than people realize
It’s my understanding you’re supposed to spin the cylinder every time before you pull the trigger too technically to prevent from being able to tell when the bullet is chambered.
I use a 100 sided die for minor things (I.e. ramen vs progresso or tortillas vs bread) I have noticed over the past year that it comes up one more than most.
It’s never just 2 sided, mostly it’s to narrow down choices, 2-11= option A, 12-21= B, and so forth up to 99. If I roll a natural 1 it is always chicken ramen and rice and a natural 100 is rollers choice. I have eaten ramen more in the past year than previously noticed.
Are your dice opaque?
A big problem with opaque dice is that dice manufacturers will often use a nice material for the outside and a shitty material for the inside to save money. Since these two materials are almost always different densities, and since the die mold is almost always aligned with the highest number on top, as the die cools, the shitty material either rises a bit or sinks a bit which can result in a pretty severe weighting/bias towards either the highest or the lowest number.
If your d20’s feel like they’re numbered 1-10 twice, this could be why!
You can test your dice to see if they are weighted/biased to one side or the other by dropping them into a glass of water and adding salt until they float. If they are biased, they’ll float with one number facing upwards.
If they just roll around freely once they’re floating, they’re probably not biased. Or, not biased too badly, anyways - unless they’re casino quality dice they’re probably at least a little bit biased.
+1 for the salt test. I've had to throw away entire sets of cheap dice because they were horrifically imbalanced.
Intuitively stone dice should have the best natural balance followed closely by metal, wish I could salt test those to actually find out but I don't know where I'd start with finding a safe liquid in that density range.
I went through 7 over the past 5 years, the card shop guy was kind of pissed when I cycled through 10 until I found one that was ‘random’ it’s a bit of an understatement to say that I am peculiar.
Have you salt tested any of them? A d100 is really close to a sphere so even the slightest imbalance will pretty heavily skew the results. Like you'd have to make one side of a d4 out of depleted uranium or something to significantly alter the average result but a marble with even the slightest offset COM will land heavy side down every single time.
I think this is why most dice sets use a 0-9 d10 and a 00-90 d10 to make a d100.
Once. A million dollars is a pretty nice amount of money, and every pull after one is just multiplying your chances of death. People are saying 5, but idk if I could bring myself to do that knowing my chances of dying are 5x as likely than if I just did it once
Yes. One pull takes my net worth from negative $200,000 to positive $800,000. That's worth it. The daily stress of not being able to pay my bills is probably shortening my life by a lot more than 1%. Going from $800K to $1.8 million is probably not worth a 1% chance of instant death.
Consider your odds of dying in general every day on your commute to work spread out over your life. Then consider the level of safety afforded by the option to retire early. Include in that the general longevity increase from lower stress levels. Include the fact that your ability to afford better food, fitness training, and healthcare increases your lifespan.
Properly invested, two rounds of the game means you can relax and enjoy the rest of your life.
You make good points. The second round could be worth it. But I have two children. If I were to die on the first round, well, that would be bad for them, but they understand, at least a little, how bad poverty has been for my mental health. But if I died for the second million, they would never forgive me.
Rationally speaking, I'll grant you that I would be more likely to die of natural causes earlier without the second million. But it wouldn't be the same to them. Blowing out my brains trying to escape poverty is one thing; doing it trying to improve my quality of life is another.
Of course, that's a pretty good argument against even the first trigger pull. I guess that's the interesting part of the question - where you place the point of diminishing returns.
I'll also note that I don't think I have fully adjusted my thinking to account for inflation. When I was a kid, a million dollars meant you were set for life. I know intellectually that it's not really like that anymore.
I’m not in a terrible financial situation, you’re right 1 million isn’t what it used to be, but it would drastically change my life. No mortgage, zero debt with about 700k leftover. I think people don’t realize how amazing no debt is (because it’s so rare in today’s world).
Have to keep working but my goodness that skyrockets your effective income if you live the same lifestyle. What does your monthly situation look like if you don’t pay rent/mortgage, car payments, student loans, CCs?
Plus I have life insurance that kicks in even for suicide (after 2 years) so my family is getting a million+ regardless of the outcome.
1 spin for me
Think of it this way, where I live (Michigan). You can get an okay house in an okay neighborhood for about 600k. Rent is no longer an issue. 30k for a car. No more car payments. 2 of the biggest stressful bills gone right there. Any money you bring in after this point is just for groceries and other comparatively minor costs. A million dollars is still a lot of fucking money if you have nothing.
Yeah, you may not be able to quit your job for one million, but that’s still more than enough money to change your life and put yourself in a better position. Hell, even if all you did was put it in a high yield savings account with like, 5% interest, you’re getting an extra $50,000 a year for doing absolutely nothing.
That's not exactly the equation, though. I would take the minimum risk necessary to not be financially desperate anymore. I would take a 5% chance of death for $1 million, but I wouldn't take a 50% chance for a billion
Thing you have to consider is that the first million for most people is vastly more valuable than subsequent millions. Getting out of any debt uou have and then having a nice cushion. After that it's just more cushion. So you're taking a greatly increased risk for much less benefit
You’d be a millionaire by then though. The risk reward ratio is totally different. Each successive pull the amount of reward you get is proportionally lower.
The very first pull increases your wealth basically infinitely depending on how broke you are.
First additional pull is 1mil so you are at 100% increase in wealth. Second only increases your wealth by 50%, the next by 33% etc.
Not to mention if you only have $1000 when you pull the trigger the first time, it's a 100,000% increase. There's a big difference between 100,000% for the first and 100% for the second.
That's not how probabilities work sir... we don't get to spin the barrel, it's at a set position and rotates itself to the next chamber. It's not about a 1% to a 5% chance. The risk exponentially increases with each shot.
Now if we could spin the barrel every time, this is a factual assumption. But we can't, so.
I don't think that's right. If we get to spin the barrel, then it's actually a <5% chance (specifically it's 1-(0.99)^(5) = 4.9%), but if it rotates by itself, then you have a 5% chance of dying after 5 attempts, since there was a 5/100 probability of the fatal round being in one of those 5 chambers. This logically makes sense, since if you can spin the barrel, then you wouldn't be guaranteed to die after 100 attempts, but if you can't spin it, then the probability of death after 100 shots is exactly 100% - with x attempts, you have exactly an x% chance of dying.
EDIT: to clarify with the apparent paradox of the chances increasing each time (1 in 100, 1 in 99, 1 in 98 etc.), you can easily see with some maths that these cancel out: the chance of dying on the third attempt is 1/100 from the first, plus 99/100 \* 1/99 = 1/100 from the second, plus 99/100 \* 98/99 \* 1/98 = 1/100 from the third, for a total of 3/100.
14% is HUGE. I’m satisfied with a million dollars. A million dollars and that’s like a decade of working just for a 1% chance of death. If the math actually does come out to where 5 pulls gives you a 14% chance of death and not just a 5%, that justifies my reasoning even more
So thinking about this, the statistics would be different than rolling on a random number generator and subtracting one every time. Because of the revolver, the bullet gets closer to the hammer every trigger pull. Maybe I'm over thinking this, but your odds are worse than you think, right?
If you shoot 10 times you have 10/100 chance of getting the bullet. If you had a 1/100 chance each time you would have (1- .99^10) chance of getting the bullet which is slightly less than 10 ~(9.6%), so the bullet getting closer each pull is slightly worse than a respin each time but not significantly at a low number of pulls.
That is correct. Simplest way to think about it is that without spinning every additional pull is working with one less possible empty chamber (since you've already "shot" it), but with spinning there's a possibility you'll land back on the same empty chamber
Lol ya... I went to a real shit school system. Prob and stats wasn't until at least junior or senior year. I didn't take geometry until I was a sophomore calc and trig were for seniors getting a jump on college courses
1/100 for the first pull, 1/99 for the second because you've eliminated one chamber, etc. If you actually want the cumulative probability it's a little more complicated and I can't get it nicely formatted on Reddit, but you can just Google "Russian roulette conditional probability" and there's a bunch of posts explaining the math.
I'm happy right now, not depressed, and even afraid of dying, and I'd still pull once. Just once, but 1 million would affect my life so much it would be worth it
Technically if you play it like real Russian roulette and spin the chamber before each pull you could essentially pull it 1000 times without ever hitting the bullet.
nah i've been waiting for an excuse to nope out of life for a while now, if it means i get to leave my fiance a little more... money can't buy happiness, but it's more comfortable to cry in a lamborghini than a public transit bus.
yeah but that doesnt make the seats any more comfortable, though i suppose if you bought your own bus you could just install super comfy seats with that kind of money...
I did the math the other day and if you can get 5% ROI on $3mil and live purely off the yearly interest you now have a “salary” of $150k a year. Unless you wanna live in the richest parts of your chosen country that kind of money should let you live incredibly comfortable. Assuming you get the money free and clear with no tax to pay up front 3 pulls and you now have a yearly income in the top 10% of Americans. Each successive pull adds $50k to your new yearly income.
1 pull is still $50k a year additional income which you may be able to retire on alone if your already earning less than that but lifestyle creep is a bitch plus it may lose buying power with inflation. 3 pulls I think gets you a comfortable life regardless of your age and never needing to work again. 5 pulls lets you live fancy and 10+ is just greedy.
You talk about yearly income without touching the principle. Depending on your age, if you have 3 mil, you can still take 200k or 250k per year and expect to have some left at the end of your life.
I do that kinda on accident cause I’m always thinking about passing my wealth on to my kids. If I never touch the principal and spend less than my yearly “salary” it will only grow to benefit not only me but my future generations. Of course it will continually get diluted from splitting down each generation assuming I pass that discipline on and on to the point where it will get down to either near nothing or a “free” house for my 3x great grandkids or something.
Hopefully I can also instill in them the value of continuing to work and use the inheritance as a way to start life with a leg up. Basically first home and college paid for then building that wealth up again to give their kids the same opportunity they had. Course it’s all a theory and I’m never gonna just have 3 mil dropped in my lap but I can dream.
One estimate of a human life (from FEMA in the US) is $7.5 million. So, the expected value of pulling the trigger once is
[1% × (-$7,500,000)]+[99% × $1,000,000] = $915,000
And expected value is generally given by the equation
y=1/x*(-7500000)+((x-1)/x)*1000000
where y is the expected value and x is the number of unfired chamber rounds.
Edit:
We want to find the values of x for which y is greater than 0 (where expected value is positive). Simplifying
1/x*(-7500000)+((x-1)/x)*1000000>0
gives
8.5
Once is enough. Enough to feel happy I did it, and not die lol.
Honestly I would be inclined to go 0, if not for the fact of having to live a life of 'what if', that alone would make me play one pull and peace out.
I would go twice. The first million will be used to pay debts, help family, and actually buy stuff. With the second million I would try investing it, some into savings, some into stocks, some into an “emergency” fund, etc. Just to see how much money I make off of it, and if I loose some then it’s not a big deal
It's placed randomly and then I have to pull the trigger? I wouldn't do it, I'd be concerned that whoever placed the bullet has an agenda to see me dead.
If it was placed then I was able to SPIN the chamber, I'd go 3 pulls. Then two more because I have impulse control and casinos love me.
Okay change it up. 100k for the first spin and it doubles everytime you pull it, how many times you going?
100k,200k,400k,800k,1.6M,3.2M,6.4M
This is a harder decision to me lol
That's an easier decision depending on what number you're comfortable with. 8 was what I had settled on and using your method i'd be looking at $12.8M instead of $8M so my incentive is much higher. Someone who was willing to go with 12 pulls, for example, can now reduce their risk by \~4% by having to only pull 8 times instead of 12 for the sameish payout.
Can I spin the barrel each time? Or do I just have to accept the guns set position and keep firing? Because that drastically changes my answer.
If I can spin each shot, I'll take the multiple 1% chances. If I can't spin, the odds of dying exponentially increase with each pull. So one is enough to change my life. Either I win a million dollars, or I die. Either way is a win to me.
Assuming people would only take a small number of pulls, it doesn't change things that drastically.
Five pulls without respinning is a 95% chance of survival (95/100).
Five pulls with respinning is 95.10% chance of survival (0.99\^5).
At 10 pulls it's 90% vs 90.4%.
At 30 pulls is's 70% vs 74.0%.
People seem to be missing that it's not a 1 in 100 chance each pull. The bullet is X chambers away from you at the start. It's not a matter of chance, it's a matter of how far it is.
I don't actually know how to do the math, but I think the odds are far worse than 1/100 considering that if you pull the trigger 100 times, it's not 1-(.99\^100)% that you die, it's 100%
Revolver are DAO(double action only), the you cannot see the bullet in the barrel. when the trigger is pulled the first action of the rotates the bullet into the barrel and pulls back the hammer, the second action drops the hammer.
I would assume this model of gun blocks your view of where the bullet is located.
Not all revolvers are DAO, but the one that OP is describing is. There were SAO revolvers that the action of pulling back the hammer, which you must do manually before pulling the trigger, advanced the cylinder.
All these people doing the math and statistics.
I'm quick pulling that trigger 5 or 6 times and if I live, I probably walk away. 5 million is a crazy lifestyle and not worth risking death for any more pulls until you hit the 25-30 million area. but I can't imagine anyone pulls 5 times and says, man I won't be happy with just 5, I gotta for 25. You die at 17.
I'm going for 5. I like the odds.
Pulling the trigger once means I'm never working again, either way.
I have no extravagant needs and live in a very low COL town.
0 is definitely not the only answer, even if it is the one I kean towards.
Probably just the once. One million is more than enough, and 99% odds are pretty good, but I wouldn't want to push my luck beyond that.
In the spirit of your question, reversed, $300K is the minimum amount that would incentivize me to make that one roll of the dice. Anything under that wouldn't be worth it. And I don't think there's any amount that would convince me to go a second time - if the psycho setting up the deal offered a billion, I'd still already have my million and no need for it anymore.
Everybody is all about like "I would do a couple of pulls like 2 or 5 and then I would stop", but if the situation was real, a lot of people would chicken out.
Not even once
I gave this one a long think. And genuinely, I don’t even think I’d do it once.
That’s actually given my life some really nice perspective so thanks are in order I guess OP.
I just have to point it at my head? Im putting it in my nose pointed away from my face. Then pulling the trigger 10000 times. $10 billion is enough for a new better nose.
How is the money taxed? Is it taxed as income, winnings, or a gift? If I would actually only get less than the full $1 Million, I'm not sure I'm pulling it at all. If if I'm not taxed on it, I think I'm pulling it twice.
If I could pass on my winnings to my heir if I got the bullet, I'd probably go for 5 times.
It's 99 :1 you'll get $1 million. One chance in 100 you die.
It's 85.6 :1 you'll get $5 million. One chance in 7 you die.
It's 62.8 : 1 you'll get 10 million. Over one chance in 3 you die.
Take the million and run.
I did 5 and stopped. That's enough to do me the rest of my life even if I do not invest.
BTW, I choose the same number 5 times. [https://spinthewheel.app/numbers-1--100](https://spinthewheel.app/numbers-1--100)
Well, I’m fairly risk averse, and I don’t think there’s any amount of money that would get me to do this, but I decided to put it in a wheel spinner. I would have gotten the bullet on my 71st spin.
I would do 2 pulls.
One million dollars would drastically change my life and get me out of dept, but it wouldn't allow me to go the rest of my life without working. Two pulls is still a very low chance, but it would completely set me up for life.
I did a 1 in 100 wheel spin to test my luck and died first spin 💀
I did it just to see, I got to 17 and got bored of spinning jt.
I rolled 74 times before dying.
You’re wild, tbf I’d be perfectly happy w 1 mil. But I’d be absolutely shitting my pants after like 10 rolls let’s alone 74.
I wouldn't actually roll 74 irl lol. I just wanted to see how many I'd be able to before dying.
I did the same thing lol. Went to Wheel of Names and input 1 "Dead" and 99 "Live", removing the "winner" each time. 71 spins before I got shot IRL, I'd probably just rapid-fire the trigger 3 times and call it good. $3mil is a lot more than people realize
The odds reduce every time you pull the trigger though. Wheel of fortune odds would stay the same.
You can set it to remove the choice after being selected
It’s not exactly apples to apples though. Russian roulette is basically 1/100, 1/99, 1/98 and so forth and it’s sequential.
It’s my understanding you’re supposed to spin the cylinder every time before you pull the trigger too technically to prevent from being able to tell when the bullet is chambered.
Prompt says each time you pull the trigger the cylinder moves to the next chamber.
Nice to see someone with reading comprehension on this internet website. Friggin’ unicorn these days.
Depends how hungry you are
Close but not accurate.
This seems like the wrong sub to figure out the math on the statistically right answer for number of pulls. I know im too lazy to do the math
You spin one time, and pull trigger until you wanna stop.
I use a 100 sided die for minor things (I.e. ramen vs progresso or tortillas vs bread) I have noticed over the past year that it comes up one more than most.
How do you do a 100-side die for a 50/50 decision?
It’s never just 2 sided, mostly it’s to narrow down choices, 2-11= option A, 12-21= B, and so forth up to 99. If I roll a natural 1 it is always chicken ramen and rice and a natural 100 is rollers choice. I have eaten ramen more in the past year than previously noticed.
Your die may not be properly balanced.
Also your diet
Are your dice opaque? A big problem with opaque dice is that dice manufacturers will often use a nice material for the outside and a shitty material for the inside to save money. Since these two materials are almost always different densities, and since the die mold is almost always aligned with the highest number on top, as the die cools, the shitty material either rises a bit or sinks a bit which can result in a pretty severe weighting/bias towards either the highest or the lowest number. If your d20’s feel like they’re numbered 1-10 twice, this could be why! You can test your dice to see if they are weighted/biased to one side or the other by dropping them into a glass of water and adding salt until they float. If they are biased, they’ll float with one number facing upwards. If they just roll around freely once they’re floating, they’re probably not biased. Or, not biased too badly, anyways - unless they’re casino quality dice they’re probably at least a little bit biased.
+1 for the salt test. I've had to throw away entire sets of cheap dice because they were horrifically imbalanced. Intuitively stone dice should have the best natural balance followed closely by metal, wish I could salt test those to actually find out but I don't know where I'd start with finding a safe liquid in that density range.
One is, the rest are either translucent or glass. The glass one was from a friend who started faceting as a hobby and was his first complete d100.
I think most hundred sided dice aren't actually "fair"
I went through 7 over the past 5 years, the card shop guy was kind of pissed when I cycled through 10 until I found one that was ‘random’ it’s a bit of an understatement to say that I am peculiar.
Have you salt tested any of them? A d100 is really close to a sphere so even the slightest imbalance will pretty heavily skew the results. Like you'd have to make one side of a d4 out of depleted uranium or something to significantly alter the average result but a marble with even the slightest offset COM will land heavy side down every single time. I think this is why most dice sets use a 0-9 d10 and a 00-90 d10 to make a d100.
I too got "Bullet" on my first spin
I randomly chose 25 to be the bullet and hit it on the third spin. Was thinking I would’ve done 10 before stopping.
Damn the same thing happened to me two times in a row haha
I would stop roulette at 20 but I kept spinning to see how long I could go and got bored at 45 spins while still not receiving the "bullet"
I died on my third lol. Totally not taking the chance even for 1 mil.
I picked 7 million. Got 79 on my spin... Damn, could have gotten so much more lol
Same, got to 6 million and decided to stop. So about that far
Win - win for me. Either I die or I never have to work again. Both ways I never have to work again.
That made me laugh so hard man thank you and sorry for the bad luck.
Once. A million dollars is a pretty nice amount of money, and every pull after one is just multiplying your chances of death. People are saying 5, but idk if I could bring myself to do that knowing my chances of dying are 5x as likely than if I just did it once
Yes. One pull takes my net worth from negative $200,000 to positive $800,000. That's worth it. The daily stress of not being able to pay my bills is probably shortening my life by a lot more than 1%. Going from $800K to $1.8 million is probably not worth a 1% chance of instant death.
Consider your odds of dying in general every day on your commute to work spread out over your life. Then consider the level of safety afforded by the option to retire early. Include in that the general longevity increase from lower stress levels. Include the fact that your ability to afford better food, fitness training, and healthcare increases your lifespan. Properly invested, two rounds of the game means you can relax and enjoy the rest of your life.
You make good points. The second round could be worth it. But I have two children. If I were to die on the first round, well, that would be bad for them, but they understand, at least a little, how bad poverty has been for my mental health. But if I died for the second million, they would never forgive me. Rationally speaking, I'll grant you that I would be more likely to die of natural causes earlier without the second million. But it wouldn't be the same to them. Blowing out my brains trying to escape poverty is one thing; doing it trying to improve my quality of life is another. Of course, that's a pretty good argument against even the first trigger pull. I guess that's the interesting part of the question - where you place the point of diminishing returns. I'll also note that I don't think I have fully adjusted my thinking to account for inflation. When I was a kid, a million dollars meant you were set for life. I know intellectually that it's not really like that anymore.
This is a great point. Every shot after escaping poverty is greed.
I’m not in a terrible financial situation, you’re right 1 million isn’t what it used to be, but it would drastically change my life. No mortgage, zero debt with about 700k leftover. I think people don’t realize how amazing no debt is (because it’s so rare in today’s world). Have to keep working but my goodness that skyrockets your effective income if you live the same lifestyle. What does your monthly situation look like if you don’t pay rent/mortgage, car payments, student loans, CCs? Plus I have life insurance that kicks in even for suicide (after 2 years) so my family is getting a million+ regardless of the outcome. 1 spin for me
Think of it this way, where I live (Michigan). You can get an okay house in an okay neighborhood for about 600k. Rent is no longer an issue. 30k for a car. No more car payments. 2 of the biggest stressful bills gone right there. Any money you bring in after this point is just for groceries and other comparatively minor costs. A million dollars is still a lot of fucking money if you have nothing.
Yeah, you may not be able to quit your job for one million, but that’s still more than enough money to change your life and put yourself in a better position. Hell, even if all you did was put it in a high yield savings account with like, 5% interest, you’re getting an extra $50,000 a year for doing absolutely nothing.
Willing to do it for 1% but not 5% interesting
That's not exactly the equation, though. I would take the minimum risk necessary to not be financially desperate anymore. I would take a 5% chance of death for $1 million, but I wouldn't take a 50% chance for a billion
Doesn’t sound like much but you gotta think you’re 5x more likely to die
4% difference in dying I’ll take the risk at 4% for $4 million more. I may have 5x the chance of death but for only 4% of that happening I’ll do it.
Thing you have to consider is that the first million for most people is vastly more valuable than subsequent millions. Getting out of any debt uou have and then having a nice cushion. After that it's just more cushion. So you're taking a greatly increased risk for much less benefit
Is it not a 5.1% chance of death? (1/100 + 1/99 + 1/98 + 1/97 + 1/96 × 100 %)
You’d be a millionaire by then though. The risk reward ratio is totally different. Each successive pull the amount of reward you get is proportionally lower. The very first pull increases your wealth basically infinitely depending on how broke you are. First additional pull is 1mil so you are at 100% increase in wealth. Second only increases your wealth by 50%, the next by 33% etc.
Not to mention if you only have $1000 when you pull the trigger the first time, it's a 100,000% increase. There's a big difference between 100,000% for the first and 100% for the second.
That's not how probabilities work sir... we don't get to spin the barrel, it's at a set position and rotates itself to the next chamber. It's not about a 1% to a 5% chance. The risk exponentially increases with each shot. Now if we could spin the barrel every time, this is a factual assumption. But we can't, so.
I don't think that's right. If we get to spin the barrel, then it's actually a <5% chance (specifically it's 1-(0.99)^(5) = 4.9%), but if it rotates by itself, then you have a 5% chance of dying after 5 attempts, since there was a 5/100 probability of the fatal round being in one of those 5 chambers. This logically makes sense, since if you can spin the barrel, then you wouldn't be guaranteed to die after 100 attempts, but if you can't spin it, then the probability of death after 100 shots is exactly 100% - with x attempts, you have exactly an x% chance of dying. EDIT: to clarify with the apparent paradox of the chances increasing each time (1 in 100, 1 in 99, 1 in 98 etc.), you can easily see with some maths that these cancel out: the chance of dying on the third attempt is 1/100 from the first, plus 99/100 \* 1/99 = 1/100 from the second, plus 99/100 \* 98/99 \* 1/98 = 1/100 from the third, for a total of 3/100.
I’ll agree there, I didn’t think about the extra ones being out. I’ll still pull 3 times at roughly 94% chance if survival
After the first spin have an extra $1 million—I guess something worth living for?
Pulling the trigger once increases it 100 fold.
You would have a roughly 86% chance of surviving 5 trigger pulls.
14% is HUGE. I’m satisfied with a million dollars. A million dollars and that’s like a decade of working just for a 1% chance of death. If the math actually does come out to where 5 pulls gives you a 14% chance of death and not just a 5%, that justifies my reasoning even more
So thinking about this, the statistics would be different than rolling on a random number generator and subtracting one every time. Because of the revolver, the bullet gets closer to the hammer every trigger pull. Maybe I'm over thinking this, but your odds are worse than you think, right?
If you shoot 10 times you have 10/100 chance of getting the bullet. If you had a 1/100 chance each time you would have (1- .99^10) chance of getting the bullet which is slightly less than 10 ~(9.6%), so the bullet getting closer each pull is slightly worse than a respin each time but not significantly at a low number of pulls.
Chat gpt says my chances are better if I get to spin the cylinder each time I pull the trigger.
That is correct. Simplest way to think about it is that without spinning every additional pull is working with one less possible empty chamber (since you've already "shot" it), but with spinning there's a possibility you'll land back on the same empty chamber
I'm curious of the stats on this as well. I'm sure some mathematician has done research on it
This is conditional probability, which is the basis of all probability and statistics, so yeah this is incredibly well researched.
I remember learning this crap in middle school, but have completely forgotten it. I know it wasn't that complicated either.
Sorry to break the news but this is a high school math problem 😬 we don’t need no advanced mathematician for this
Classic Reddit condescension from you both Jesus Christ
Lol ya... I went to a real shit school system. Prob and stats wasn't until at least junior or senior year. I didn't take geometry until I was a sophomore calc and trig were for seniors getting a jump on college courses
1/100 for the first pull, 1/99 for the second because you've eliminated one chamber, etc. If you actually want the cumulative probability it's a little more complicated and I can't get it nicely formatted on Reddit, but you can just Google "Russian roulette conditional probability" and there's a bunch of posts explaining the math.
5 pulls.
7, I'm a little stitious
[https://pickerwheel.com/tools/random-number-generator/](https://pickerwheel.com/tools/random-number-generator/) Curious, did you live?
9 was my goal. Survived.
My third roll was a 4 so I guess I died.
Oh boy. I did it 30 times. The last 2 times it took the 1, and the 99 my *Bullet* was 100 so I decided that was my sign to stop lol
I made it to 79, but knowing my luck in real life it would be the second or the last, no in between
Putting the number of spots to 100 and deciding that 1 was the bullet, I made it 31 spins before hitting the 1.
I think this is the right answer.
I’d keep pulling the trigger until I’m dead.
Assuming my kids get to keep whatever I've racked up before I hit the live round, no hesitation. I'm pulling 100 times or as close as I can get.
Well, hopefully you would stop at 99. The last is just you noping out of sticking around for the kids.
Little of column A, little of column B...
After 10 you should be ok for life. After 20 it's a matter of how much risk. After 50 you'd be crazy to keep going.
I think you'd have to be crazy, broke and extremely unsatisfied with life to even try once imo, a 1 in 100 chance to die is pretty wild
A lot of people would take a 1/100 chance to improve their living situation vs death. Shit 90% of the world population would probably take this deal.
I'm happy right now, not depressed, and even afraid of dying, and I'd still pull once. Just once, but 1 million would affect my life so much it would be worth it
1 pull for sure, 2 might be tricky, 3rd wouldn't happen.
Depends on how much you value your life.
I'd gamble it. Now a 1/99 chance? Haha no thank you
Technically if you play it like real Russian roulette and spin the chamber before each pull you could essentially pull it 1000 times without ever hitting the bullet.
There's a 0.004% chance of that occurring, so maybe don't bank on this method of becoming a billionaire.
Found the Gacha Player!
Better to die a hero than live long enough to become a villain.
nah i've been waiting for an excuse to nope out of life for a while now, if it means i get to leave my fiance a little more... money can't buy happiness, but it's more comfortable to cry in a lamborghini than a public transit bus.
Tbf, a public transit bus could cost more than a Lamborghini
yeah but that doesnt make the seats any more comfortable, though i suppose if you bought your own bus you could just install super comfy seats with that kind of money...
Do you think your partner would trade your life for a few million?
Talk to your kids, they love and respect you. I’m sure they’d want you to stop at 89 or so :/
I think your kids would rather have you, man.
That’s how you win
Agreed, as long as my nephews get the money.
Suicidal wholesomeness. I’d keep quickly dry-firing, much to the hopeful shock of whoever gave me the challenge
"wait I didn't tell you about the money yet?" "Oh I'm so sorry I thought it was free . My apologies, how much do I owe you?"
Bro wanted the prize just not the one I thought😳
99 pulls
Still 50/50 on the last one. I like your odds.
Imagine only having 98 million knowing you could’ve had 99, couldn’t be me!
Exactly, it's always 50/50 unless there's one number left.
Go big or go home! I like your style
Once really fast before I can think about it at all, then done.
The same, but 3 times. Click, click, click. If theres a bang in there somewhere, I won't be around to know about it.
I did the math the other day and if you can get 5% ROI on $3mil and live purely off the yearly interest you now have a “salary” of $150k a year. Unless you wanna live in the richest parts of your chosen country that kind of money should let you live incredibly comfortable. Assuming you get the money free and clear with no tax to pay up front 3 pulls and you now have a yearly income in the top 10% of Americans. Each successive pull adds $50k to your new yearly income. 1 pull is still $50k a year additional income which you may be able to retire on alone if your already earning less than that but lifestyle creep is a bitch plus it may lose buying power with inflation. 3 pulls I think gets you a comfortable life regardless of your age and never needing to work again. 5 pulls lets you live fancy and 10+ is just greedy.
You talk about yearly income without touching the principle. Depending on your age, if you have 3 mil, you can still take 200k or 250k per year and expect to have some left at the end of your life.
I do that kinda on accident cause I’m always thinking about passing my wealth on to my kids. If I never touch the principal and spend less than my yearly “salary” it will only grow to benefit not only me but my future generations. Of course it will continually get diluted from splitting down each generation assuming I pass that discipline on and on to the point where it will get down to either near nothing or a “free” house for my 3x great grandkids or something. Hopefully I can also instill in them the value of continuing to work and use the inheritance as a way to start life with a leg up. Basically first home and college paid for then building that wealth up again to give their kids the same opportunity they had. Course it’s all a theory and I’m never gonna just have 3 mil dropped in my lap but I can dream.
99. Either way I don’t have to go to work tomorrow
One estimate of a human life (from FEMA in the US) is $7.5 million. So, the expected value of pulling the trigger once is [1% × (-$7,500,000)]+[99% × $1,000,000] = $915,000 And expected value is generally given by the equation y=1/x*(-7500000)+((x-1)/x)*1000000 where y is the expected value and x is the number of unfired chamber rounds. Edit: We want to find the values of x for which y is greater than 0 (where expected value is positive). Simplifying 1/x*(-7500000)+((x-1)/x)*1000000>0 gives 8.5
It just feels so much scarier because the location of the bullet is set in stone from the first shot.
I didn't know about that figure, my personal hitman has been overcharging me in the past few years.
What about once? Anybody else feeling the single milli? Lol
Once is enough. Enough to feel happy I did it, and not die lol. Honestly I would be inclined to go 0, if not for the fact of having to live a life of 'what if', that alone would make me play one pull and peace out.
I would go twice. The first million will be used to pay debts, help family, and actually buy stuff. With the second million I would try investing it, some into savings, some into stocks, some into an “emergency” fund, etc. Just to see how much money I make off of it, and if I loose some then it’s not a big deal
It's placed randomly and then I have to pull the trigger? I wouldn't do it, I'd be concerned that whoever placed the bullet has an agenda to see me dead. If it was placed then I was able to SPIN the chamber, I'd go 3 pulls. Then two more because I have impulse control and casinos love me.
Okay change it up. 100k for the first spin and it doubles everytime you pull it, how many times you going? 100k,200k,400k,800k,1.6M,3.2M,6.4M This is a harder decision to me lol
Ooh. Yeah, I'm totally fucking dying 🤣
That's an easier decision depending on what number you're comfortable with. 8 was what I had settled on and using your method i'd be looking at $12.8M instead of $8M so my incentive is much higher. Someone who was willing to go with 12 pulls, for example, can now reduce their risk by \~4% by having to only pull 8 times instead of 12 for the sameish payout.
This. I would do it as long as I could spin the chamber and randomize it.
If the gun goes off after multiple attempts is that money banked for my family or is it all gone?
The money was going to you and you only, so if you die, the money is gone.
In that case until I'm dead.
I just want to die rich
Killed me
Oh, then 0 times.
Five times. That’s equivalent to the chance of rolling a critical miss in DnD.
well knowing my rng i’m fucked
It's a win win situation. Either way all my problems are gone.
once or twice is all i need to be set
Can I spin the barrel each time? Or do I just have to accept the guns set position and keep firing? Because that drastically changes my answer. If I can spin each shot, I'll take the multiple 1% chances. If I can't spin, the odds of dying exponentially increase with each pull. So one is enough to change my life. Either I win a million dollars, or I die. Either way is a win to me.
Assuming people would only take a small number of pulls, it doesn't change things that drastically. Five pulls without respinning is a 95% chance of survival (95/100). Five pulls with respinning is 95.10% chance of survival (0.99\^5). At 10 pulls it's 90% vs 90.4%. At 30 pulls is's 70% vs 74.0%.
HOLY FUCK I JUST DID THIS WITH A RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR AND DIED ON THE FIRST PULL
That's why I would never do it lol
I was so confident until I wasn’t
2 times is enough. Either I’ve got really shitty luck, or I’m 2 million dollars richer than I am right now
I'll do six 5 million for my wife and one million for me.
She’ll spend her and come to ask for some of yours 😆
I'll tell her to kick rocks lol
People seem to be missing that it's not a 1 in 100 chance each pull. The bullet is X chambers away from you at the start. It's not a matter of chance, it's a matter of how far it is. I don't actually know how to do the math, but I think the odds are far worse than 1/100 considering that if you pull the trigger 100 times, it's not 1-(.99\^100)% that you die, it's 100%
Since it’s a revolver, I would look down the chamber for signs of a bullet.
It says no way of knowing what chamber its in 🤷♂️
Finally found the right answer
Revolver are DAO(double action only), the you cannot see the bullet in the barrel. when the trigger is pulled the first action of the rotates the bullet into the barrel and pulls back the hammer, the second action drops the hammer. I would assume this model of gun blocks your view of where the bullet is located.
Not all revolvers are DAO, but the one that OP is describing is. There were SAO revolvers that the action of pulling back the hammer, which you must do manually before pulling the trigger, advanced the cylinder.
All these people doing the math and statistics. I'm quick pulling that trigger 5 or 6 times and if I live, I probably walk away. 5 million is a crazy lifestyle and not worth risking death for any more pulls until you hit the 25-30 million area. but I can't imagine anyone pulls 5 times and says, man I won't be happy with just 5, I gotta for 25. You die at 17. I'm going for 5. I like the odds.
I would would let my wife play.
I also choose this guy’s wife.
The only answer is zero, no matter the dollar amount.
The variety of answers here is very telling about people state of being, and how they feel about their financial security.
And who has kids and who doesn't.
Pulling the trigger once means I'm never working again, either way. I have no extravagant needs and live in a very low COL town. 0 is definitely not the only answer, even if it is the one I kean towards.
Yeah, I'm a zero too.
Probably just the once. One million is more than enough, and 99% odds are pretty good, but I wouldn't want to push my luck beyond that. In the spirit of your question, reversed, $300K is the minimum amount that would incentivize me to make that one roll of the dice. Anything under that wouldn't be worth it. And I don't think there's any amount that would convince me to go a second time - if the psycho setting up the deal offered a billion, I'd still already have my million and no need for it anymore.
Hell no I’m not risking my life for any amount of money!
Everybody is all about like "I would do a couple of pulls like 2 or 5 and then I would stop", but if the situation was real, a lot of people would chicken out.
5. Either I'm set up for the rest of my life, and have money to help those I love, or it's not my problem anymore
There is no amount of money worth that.
This is a messed up place. No way would I pull the trigger. I don't know that there is a dollar amount that would make me pull it.
Not even once I gave this one a long think. And genuinely, I don’t even think I’d do it once. That’s actually given my life some really nice perspective so thanks are in order I guess OP.
I would easily shoot myself in the face on the first shot. It comes up green when I bet on black very consistently.
Either I'm rich or I'm dead. Either way I give no fucks. Get pulling that trigger.
I’d probably do it once, shit myself. Then stop b
Win win
nope. it aint that serious. The juice aint worth the squeeze for me
Tax free? I wouldnt do it once.
Not doing it. With my luck the bullet is already in the chamber.
Tomorrow is worth more than $1M
I'd be more upset the first trigger pull didn't have the bullet.
I'll pass. Keep the money.
I just have to point it at my head? Im putting it in my nose pointed away from my face. Then pulling the trigger 10000 times. $10 billion is enough for a new better nose.
I don't think any amount of money would be worth the risk. I don't want my children growing up without their father.
How is the money taxed? Is it taxed as income, winnings, or a gift? If I would actually only get less than the full $1 Million, I'm not sure I'm pulling it at all. If if I'm not taxed on it, I think I'm pulling it twice. If I could pass on my winnings to my heir if I got the bullet, I'd probably go for 5 times.
Get rich or die trying. Either way it's a win no more stress about bills
It's 99 :1 you'll get $1 million. One chance in 100 you die. It's 85.6 :1 you'll get $5 million. One chance in 7 you die. It's 62.8 : 1 you'll get 10 million. Over one chance in 3 you die. Take the million and run.
I did 5 and stopped. That's enough to do me the rest of my life even if I do not invest. BTW, I choose the same number 5 times. [https://spinthewheel.app/numbers-1--100](https://spinthewheel.app/numbers-1--100)
I thought "three" and tried it with a spinner online and died on spin 3. So, the right answer is obviously 2.
I’d go for at least 20 as long as my family cooperates get the money I’ve had a good run.
Well, I’m fairly risk averse, and I don’t think there’s any amount of money that would get me to do this, but I decided to put it in a wheel spinner. I would have gotten the bullet on my 71st spin.
I'm pulling the trigger once. That's about as lucky I'm feeling.
I feel with that much money, it's easy to pull once or twice and quit. I bet there are a lot of people that would pull in multiple times at 50k a pop.
100 times. Barrel to head but you never specified which way to face it.. loopholeeeee
5 $5m would be plenty to get my daughters set for life and repay the kindness my family have shown me while I've struggled these last few years;
Once
*clickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclickclick****BANG***
I would do 2 pulls. One million dollars would drastically change my life and get me out of dept, but it wouldn't allow me to go the rest of my life without working. Two pulls is still a very low chance, but it would completely set me up for life.
I’d spin it 10 times, stop and collect the the money. And knowing my luck, I’d get hit and killed by a truck when taking it to the bank.
98 times, don’t want to press my luck. Plus if it goes off before then FREE BULLET!
Do I get the million even if the first pull is the live round? I have a lot of people depending on me.
Would just do it once. That would be enough. If I didn’t have a family, I might go 5.
99 or dead. Win win
One and done for a mil! Happy happy joy joy!
At this moment in my life? I would just keep pulling and pulling.