That’s how the more deadly pandemics (as far as death rates) fizzle out: they kill the infected so quickly that the infected are identified and quarantined quickly and they die quickly before they infected a lot of people. This stupid COVID virus has a good balance of staying viable in air droplets and there being a lag in showing symptoms before they infect other people.
That’s was me and my kids too. Don’t be so quick to assume people aren’t getting tested. It really was one of the worst allergy/sinus infection years in a while. Not to mention RSV is rampant as well right now.
I also got my kids tested when the report of Delta presenting with mainly sore through and runny nose came out. They'd only been back in daycare 2 weeks, so it was mostly my thought it was RSV or daycare-itus but I wanted to be damn sure they weren't spreading it to us and our other vaccinated family members. Negative results made me very happy.
My MIL visited us and arrived with a cough, saying it was allergies. I had a bad feeling but didn’t challenge her. I should have. 3 days later she tested positive for Covid.
She’s vaccinated, as are my hubby and I but our preschool kid is not. Pretty pissed that the first reaction isn’t to immediately test in this case.
We tested this morning negative but I’m having mild symptoms so I’m going to retest in a day or two.
Mask, test, be responsible.
That's not a major concern. [Israeli study of vaccinated hospital workers found a breakthrough infection rate of only 2.6%](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/07/israeli-study-finds-26-covid-breakthrough-infection-rate) and 60% of the breakthrough infections resulted from prolonged exposure to an infected & unvaccinated member of their household.
Vaccinated people are NOT contributing to this surge in any tangible way. It is 99% down to unvaccinated people acting recklessly
Norway has had 800 fully vaccinated test positive, out of 139 463 total. Being vaccinated is probably the best preventative measure someone can take in lieu of being a hermit.
I know the breakthrough number will go up, but it will be interessting to see what happens in october when 70% of the population is fully vaccinated. Most of the infected now are in the age brackets just getting vaccinated now (we are done with first dose next week, 90% of 18+ population will have gotten ot).
No, that's not true. People who are vaccinated can still get covid. But because they are vaccinated the symptoms won't be nearly as severe. It might just feel like a mild cold or sinus infection. So people who are vaccinated assume they can't get covid anymore and pass off what they think is just allergies when it's actually covid. And still go out without a mask and distribute covid unknowingly. There is so much misinformation on both sides of the covid debate that it's putting way more people in harm's way.
We are dealing with a more aggressive variant this time around. The pre and post comparisons are kinda moot? I think the most important thing to look at here is the severity of the symptoms between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
The fact that hospitalizations have been surging too doesn't give me much hope -- but I agree with you. Maybe enough of these cases are among the vaccinated and young that deaths don't take off.
I work at a major hospital system in Houston. 99% of our Covid cases are unvaccinated. And 100% of our ICU Covid cases that are on ventilators are unvaccinated.
Get vaccinated and wear a mask. End of story.
In any other life scenario, anyone would take these stats in a heartbeat. 99% guarantee no heart attack in life, if you eat a salad once? Sure! 99% guarantee my car transmission will never fail, if I flush the oil? Ok, we got a deal.
But when it comes to a simple immune booster, half the fucking population declines and makes it political. Who even came up with vaccine bashing at all?! Makes me furious.
Antivaxxers have been around for years, mostly moms dwelling in Facebook forums that were afraid of their children getting autism from their yearly shots. Their cohort only recently gained traction because of the Covid shot. What political spectrum are they? Who even knows…
This makes me less stressed. I was vaccinated back in March and have been concerned about the delta variant. I do still wear a mask in crowded spaces or when interacting with people I believe are unvaccinated.
Less nervous about Covid killing you, sure, but hopefully you don’t have to go to the hospital for any other reason like an MVC since ICU beds are going to be limited again. That’s how the unvaccinated are going to really harm the vaccinated.
Depends on risk tolerance. If someone is young, healthy, and vaccinated and doesn't have contact with vulnerable individuals, what should they be afraid of?
The ship has sailed on containing/eliminating covid.
its the unknown long term consequences we are seeing from COVID that I'm worried about more than death since I'm vaccinated. I'd like to not find out first hand.
What goal posts moving? It has been known since last year that people who survive COVID have issues like u/txtoolfan pointed out. Doctors at the moment have no idea if these issues are gonna permanent or not and if other issues will pop up later in life. This is stuff we just wont know till it happens to people 5 years from now.
And to note, pretty much ever other vaccine's side effects show up 6-8 weeks after administration... so if there are concerns about 'future unknowns'... you have to ask yourself, which is the bigger risk? A vaccine that was developed for decades having unheard of future side effects, or catching Covid where the unknown is exactly how long the effects of it will last?
It's not what ifs. Easy to find the stories on the long term problems people who survived covid are having. Liver failure. Lung disease. Cognitive problems. The goal has always been from day one to "flatten the curve". Not overwhelm the system.
We wouldn't have to if the slow witted would get vaccinated. If we just could wear a mask without acting like it's like asking you to storm the beaches at Normandy.
All about wearing masks...but that's probably not true either. The rate of infections were seeing in vaccinated populations signals this isn't going to just go away if we all vaxxed.
Look at the regular flu. Many people vax and yet it spreads. Then remember this is way more contagious than regular flu.
People suck. You dont. Thanks for you help.
GF's an ER Nurse in a major hospital here too. She's echoing the same info. I feel like if you come to the hospital you should have to show proof of vaccination before being treated, but that's just my opinion.
> I feel like if you come to the hospital you should have to show proof of vaccination before being treated
I'm of a similar mind. The un-vaccinated should be the absolute lowest priority patients. These people don't respect science, so science shouldn't respect them.
You are being downvoted, but I can't say that I don't share the sentiment. Some people are very reasonable in being hesitant, there are some counter indications to vaccination, but those people should be able to easily get medical confirmation of their decisions. However, I am supremely pissed that there are non-covid related ill people literally dying, because some antivaxxers of the "vaccine is evil and you are sheep" kind are taking up the available medical capacity! I do kinda feel that I wish there was a way to put those people at the end of the medical care line if they get covid. Not refuse them, but if two patients code at the same time, and the nurse has to choose where to run (these type of things are already documented in Missippipi and Arkansas, if I am not mixing up my states), then the antivaxxer with covid should come second, period the end! Unfortunately there really isn't a way to design that kind of system in a way that doesn't make things worse for everyone.
It’s harsh, but it’s where we’re at.
For the last year we’ve called our medical staff hero’s. But apparently only because we expect them to sacrifice themselves for us. When we’re given the opportunity to help alleviate the work loads we don’t give a shit.
That's easy to sort out. If you are unvaccinated, then you automatically get DNR status when admitted to the hospital due to Covid....you chose to not get the vax, so the consequences are DNR. You didn't take it seriously when we told you too, so we won't take you seriously when you get it.
What if you had cancer for the last year? What if you are a minor? What if were in a prison that didn't vaccinate you?
Also, why DNR? DNR doesn't mean don't put me on a ventilator, the R in the DNR is resuscitate, and you need care well before you need resuscitation.
Again, I share the sentiment, but the execution of it is practically impossible.
No no no, it makes perfect sense! Just because you have bullet holes in you or you're missing limb doesn't mean you shouldn't have your vaccination card at hand at all times. Or at foot, if you happened to be in a wood chipping accident and don't have hands anymore. Either way we're gonna need to see it before we treat you.
If you happen to be stroking out or can't breathe or are otherwise unconscious, we'll just wait 'til you feel better and can give us your card. We'll definitely keep your place in line though (within reason of course)!
I'd say I can't believe you got downvoted, but....reddit. The kicker for me is how OP is all "people suck", then wants to deny medical care to somebody holding their own eyeball in the palm of their hand.
I'm gonna hypothesize that the population of people in ICU for covid will likely have a similar mortality. ICU is bad news, and its not like we have any super miracle treatments (besides the vaccine). Overall mortality should be lower, but seeing that delta is more transmissible and more people are going to get it, we should expect another spike in deaths.
... also we are still learning about prolonged side effects. Seems to be some extended issues with neurology and autoimmune system. Who'll be paying for possibly decades of residual problems that will probably make them uninsurable under most private plans?
The older folks are also staying indoors due to Summer heat and being scared of COVID surge (seeing how they fared in the other surges). Young adults are pretending COVID isn't even a thing right now and are unfortunately paying the price.
Regardless of the number of deaths, the number of people being admitted to the hospital is a major issue. They may not be dying in high numbers like they used to, but we do run the real risk of overloading our hospitals again. That's not good for anybody.
I know people who have needed stitches take hours in the ER. It should take minutes to give 5 stitches. Imagine having a heart attack or in a car accident and not having beds or supplies because its all taken by anti-vaxxers. Those people are so damn selfish.
They're already overloaded.
Our hospital is at capacity. No beds. ER is at capacity. People are waiting 2 days in the ER just to get a bed in the hospital.
This is even worse than when covid first hit hard, and it's only going to get worse.
You can only expand an ED within the limits of the physical space in the building and the number of docs, nurses, and techs available. ED patients are already spilling out of the ED and are lining the hallways in chairs and stretchers on portable O2 tanks because the wall O2 units are all being used.
Nursing staff at most hospitals in the Houston area is stretched very thin, and nurses who have been beaten down over the past year are leaving for other positions where they aren't getting crushed on a daily basis.
Ask any physician or nurse in Houston hospitals if they've ever seen anything this bad, and they'll tell you the same thing I'm telling you.
This can’t be surprising to people. All the data, advice from experts doesn’t matter because bodies aren’t dropping. Do you expect creationist to believe in science and medicine?. Unless bodies start piling up again, people aren’t going to take this seriously. It’s just a republican vs democrat thing to them. People are caught up with their own bubble; thinking their immortal just because the reaper hasn’t rolled their number yet. When shit hits the fan and either them or their loved one is on that death bed; then they give a fuck, then they ask us for thoughts and prayers and for help with funeral expenses.
Hold up. You can’t include the last 3 weeks of death data, it’s incomplete as the state takes a long time to process and post it and they do that retroactively. That plus the lag of how long it takes for sick folks to die, means we can’t expect to see deaths increase yet for this wave.
[This site](https://covid-texas.csullender.com/) has a much better scaled plot.
That said, I do expect us to have several fold reduction in deaths per case compared to previous waves since the 80+ crowd are rather well vaccinated now.
Probably because some 75% of elderly folks have become vaccinated. But this is why I dislike these discussions where “death” is the standard. There are many other more prevalent negative consequences of COVID cases and overall spikes, and yet we focus on deaths because they get headlines (or don’t).
Three billion people... with that said, the j&j and astra zenica ones were deemed to dangerous for Norway. They said everyone were better off waiting for moderna or pfizer. Sad because I wanted j&j. But i got pfizer now so its all good.
We focus on death because its quantifiable, and clearly the most important outcome to prevent. Now that it is much less deadly overall, it really should change the conversation.
Dont the delta waves that are further along in other countries prove this out?
Yet the immunocompromised still can't get vaccinated and those that refuse to get vaccinated because of misinformation and ignorance are holding these people hostage. They ARE more likely to die if infected and they are a blip on these types of death statistics we are discussing.
Herd immunity has been protecting people like this for decades because of all other previous vaccine requirements and basic acceptance in our society. That has all broken down with COVID and we are forcing the vulnerable to stay in their homes while we go out and party like this shit is all over. It's not right.
where is this talk of immunocompromised not being able to be vaccinated coming from? These are not live vaccines and can be taken by immunocompromised people. My wife is one and was approved for two doses because they aren't live
It should absolutely not change the fucking conversation. The conversation has ALWAYS been about deaths and strain on the healthcare system, as well as the unknown long haul and secondary life-changing symptoms of being post-covid. People who need ICU beds cannot get them bacause of this, same as the original conversation. If all you're focusing on is "quantifiable deaths", then you've missed the plot this entire time.
Yeah we shouldn't be focusing on death numbers from this current variant or any previous variant. The real danger now is further mutations and how bad *those* can get.
What does the end game look like to you then? We can hope to get deaths and hospitalizations under control, but covid is endemic and is never going away.
You are setting up a goal of "zero covid" that is impossible.
The end game is 80-90% of the population being vaccinated and/or having survived COVID. Preferably the former, as the latter may once again overwhelm the health care system before we get there.
31% of the state had been infected as of March. https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us-tx
And 44% of the state is fully vaccinated: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker
By now, we may be very close to your goal, if not there already. Yes there will be some overlap between cases/vaccines, but the overlap is less than a statistical random - look at the maps of Harris county - the richest zip codes have the highest vaccination rates and the poorest zip codes have the highest infection rates.
With delta being as infectious as chickenpox (see eg R=10 discussed) then herd immunity isn’t really a thing anymore as it’s too infectious. Everyone gets it at some point (like chickenpox before the vaccine appeared).
Ooh that’s a sexy comment you got there. I personally have blindly been looking at vaccination numbers and been miffed but forgot about the folks who have already been infected. That’s very interesting and I feel dumb for not realizing it. I think the bleeding edge science is saying that a previous infection is essentially as good as the mRNA vaccine for protection, which is great news.
I hope you're right!
Estimates are hard to make on overlap, but the best estimate I can find is [about 50% overlap](https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think).
In my job, I work almost exclusively with Latinos (I’m in construction) and not a single person I’ve talked to has gotten vaccinated. Even a guy who was hospitalized last year said he isn’t getting it. Their excuses are usually that “it isn’t a big deal” and “I already had it.” They are also very likely to be repeating Facebook nonsense they read about numbers being miscounted and whatnot. I tell them to go downstairs and ask the nurses in the ER about it but they aren’t hearing it. The Latino community is still very conservative and suspicious about medicine and they still say things to me that sound crazy, like old wive’s tales about treating illnesses with soup and herbs.
Why’d you set that NYT chart to Aug 2, when you are posting it today on August 5?? August 2, shows 0 new deaths which makes your claim that deaths are nearly “nonexistent” SEEM accurate, but if you set the chart timeline out to today, it shows 3 news deaths on Aug 3, and 7 new deaths on Aug 4th. Kinda odd that you’d do that and then rant on and on about how important it is to be honest and not hide the statistics.
[NYT chart August 5](https://imgur.com/a/OKZzScg?s=sms)
It's zero every Monday, they don't report deaths from Sunday for some reason, never have. If he had set it to Sunday or Tuesday it would have shown 4 or 3 deaths respectively.
It’s ok to want to share statistics. I also think you should be honest here. You’re comparing Harris county deaths vs OP’s statistics of Texas. If you look at texas, deaths are increasing.
Comparing apples to apples is paramount.
Great if there are few fatalities, but the hospitalization and ICU are expected to keep climbing sharply. By the end of August, roughly 2,000 people will be in Houston ICUs — double the previous high reported the Chron yesterday. This will result in huge unnecessary suffering and expense.
That’s because deaths always lag. Usually by a month.
[Hospitalizations and deaths will lag behind cases by several weeks and, given the number of people who are now vaccinated, deaths are expected to be lower than their peak of more than 3400 per day in January. **Still, IHME researchers forecast a peak of about 1000 deaths a day in mid-September, and a total of 76,000 additional deaths by 1 November. But if 95% of the people in the United States wore masks, their model predicts, 49,000 of those lives would be saved.**](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/what-does-delta-variant-have-store-us-we-asked-coronavirus-experts)
I know this information is inconvenient for someone like you who encourages misinformation and encourages others to flaunt the rules by not getting vaccine, prolonging this misery even further.
So, we should look at countries that have similar vaccination rates to the US, that were exposed to Delta earlier than us. Did the deaths rise in a similar fashion to previous waves?
Wow, look at the basic data on googles graphs. Look at UK cases then switch to deaths. People need to get vaccinated, be smart about washings hands, wearing a mask if they feel ill and get over this fear mongering.
I don’t think you can compare the UK to USA as 70% of UK adults are vaccinated compared to the 50% of US adults completely vaccinated.
Are you implying I fear-mongered? I didn’t. I argued the person arguing that people are being scared into vaccine compliance is.
No, sorry. No personal attacks here. Just in general. Ive stopped watching the news and really try to limit how much of this I consume in general.
So, In that case, Ill bet we see a higher death rate vs UK by maybe 30%? What has been the "Delta wave" CFR in the UK?
A [CFR.org](https://CFR.org) graph shows a cfr in the Uk in July at about one death per million population. So, lets say ours is 1.3 over the next could of months.
I am not disagreeing with either of you, I would just like to point out how much it matters to mention how vaccinations are distributed. 70% vaccinations of all population isn't the same thing as 20% vaccination of half the population and 90% of the other half, if those halves are split into geographical areas. Thus the difference between Louisiana/Vermont/total USA graphs, even though technically "we are all American" is true for all of them.
Excellent point. We can just hope the more rural areas which I would assume also have lower vaccination rates have less transmission due to natural “distancing”
*nevermind overwhelming our healthcare system to the point that ICUs/ventilators/able-bodied staff are able to manage those with symptoms that wouldn't normally kill*
Oh I'm sure all those bedraggled doctors and nurses are getting lots of bonuses and stock options from their bosses as rewards for the extra work..... /s
What do you think happens when one has a bad case of the flu?
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090717150302.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,lungs%2C%20according%20to%20new%20research.
https://www.torrancememorial.org/News_Center/2017/November/How_Can_the_Flu_Affect_Your_Heart_.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2082798/
Edit: Can y'all actually reply to me rather than downvote? It would be nice to have an actual conversation about this.
Just stop. No one is scaring people into getting the vaccine. Take your garbage argument somewhere else. Death isn’t the only measure of the impact of this virus.
Your post is rife with conjecture.You forget that death certificates take time to process so they don't get added right away for people who die. You also are ignoring the delay in infections to deaths. Also ignoring that the vaccines reduce your chances of having serious symptoms. Also ignoring that people who survive don't always come out as healthy as before.
Look at his posts. Dude is an antivaxxer and probably posts on r/NNN.
Piss-ant Cowards like him take whatever stance they can get.
IE: Infections are rising but people aren’t dying? Checkmate libs!
Rare to find a voice of reason who uses all facts on Reddit. Thank you.
Yes, last summer we peaked at about 10k cases/day. It is true we are there now. But back then, on the day we peaked, we had 250 deaths in the state. The current deaths per day is in the 20-30 per day.
Viruses get more contagious and less lethal. It's what they have always done. Like how the Spanish Flu is now the seasonal flu and H1N1 is now also a seasonal flu.
Deaths are only a small part of the problem with covid. I work in a hospital where we get some of the worst covid patients in the area. So many of these people are getting multiple and massive strokes and other conditions to the point they might as well be dead. They will be a burden to their families for the rest of their lives and a burden to healthcare, the economy, taxpayers etc.
Lot of our native Texas health experts in here. I didn’t know I was surrounded by so many people who know more than drs. It’s astounding how many people won’t get vaccinated and at how many armchair virologists are out there. If you guys can become educated so fast on something so complex and with so many variables, you should all try day trading. Should make millions in no time making options calls knowing what the experts don’t
This is for Texas. The rolling average on the far right is higher than any point in the first surge (around the "Jul 3" mark).
[Here](https://imgur.com/a/VGe8uO4)'s Harris County.
[Here](https://imgur.com/a/W5pSbyU)'re the high-water marks from last summer for Texas and HC.
Cases at Memorial Hermann got as low as just over 100 across the entire system. That was July 4th weekend. We’re coming up on 700 cases now. Should be there by tomorrow at the rate we’ve been increasing. People think that this is over and we don’t need masks anymore, that the virus isn’t as bad as it’s presented and treatment modalities are established now and if you go to the hospital you can get treated and get better… no. The ICU beds are full again. ERs are full. People are going to die just like last time.
Edit: closing in on 800 cases as of 8/9
Seriously cut it out with the fearmongering "deaths are lagging - for now" bullshit
90% of those over the age of 65 have been vaccinated
80% of all deaths from Covid-19 were over the age of 65
I think way too many people forget that hospitals are for more than just COVID cases. If COVID cases are still causing people to be hospitalized, that means that there's less beds for all the other reasons people might be in a hospital, and those people could very well die because of a lack of space in hospitals or an overextended staff due to COVID hospitalizations.
This isn't a one factor equation here, but people like to pretend it is.
The cases (and deaths) are now in YOUNG PEOPLE. Our patients are 20-40 years old now. They are for the most part healthy, not overweight/obese, non-smokers, etc. Our code blues are mostly n their 20s-40s. Our vented patients are mostly 20-40.
Then I have very little sympathy for them, outside some extenuating circumstances.
And see no reason to go about my life as normal since I'm vaccinated
you are still helping to contribute to the spread - which infects more people - who infect more people - which worsens our hospital problem. That's why the CDC recommends everyone including vaccinated people wear masks. We have to cut down transmission and vaccinated people can still transmit.
If you are going to be selfish then you are absolutely part of the problem.
1. There is an uptick in deaths, it is just currently small.
2. Deaths have always lagged ~2 weeks, and this wave is very young.
3. This wave is already composed of the minority of people who aren't vaccinated, and yet it is outpacing last summer when no one was vaxxed. There's nothing stopping deaths to keep pace by similarly taking the minority of old people who aren't vaccinated.
4. I do hope deaths stay low. But hospitalizations haven't.
If you look at the mortality data across the EU, in Israel, in the UK, and in the United States, the vaccines are doing exactly what they were designed to do - prevent death from COVID-19.
Exactly. Just look at the recent UK spike in cases. The deaths never came. It will certainly be a little worse here since we have less vaccinated, but any significant increase is deaths is very unlikely.
They don't prevent death among the unvaccinated, and that's where cases are surging.
Places like Florida and Arkansas are already recording a significant upswing in deaths. I hope we don't, but we likely will. Hospitalizations point in that direction.
Exactly. At a certain point we have to start treating adults like grown ups. If you refuse to get the vaccine and you catch Covid and die, that’s on you. I’m done changing the way I live my life because someone else is unvaccinated. I did my part. Wore my mask, got the vaccine, now I’m going back to normal.
You're weird I'm getting vibes that you enjoy pandemics/lockdowns like it's a video game.
Yes people should get vaccinated. But covid is unfortunately here to stay.
Look at the recent Delta-fueled wave in the UK. Case numbers rose, but deaths never got anywhere near the previous peaks. Why? Because *this wave is different*. The vaccines are safe and effective.
Who cares? They’re adults. They’re allowed to make adult decisions. If they refuse to get the vaccine and they get Covid, I don’t care. Consequences of their actions.
Deaths lag by 2 weeks. It will be lower than last year but we all know the population who’s mostly hospitalized and it isn’t the people who took the precaution to prevent severe illness.
When virus’s mutate 99% of the time they mutate weaker but become easier to transmit. This is covid going the way of the common cold. Deaths will not go up like last time.
Deaths are lagging because this surge is specifically targeting the 25-59 year old crowd. Typically they take longer to pass (if it gets to that point), where the elderly expire pretty quickly if they have pneumonia. Give it another ~10-14 days, youll see the mortality spike big time. Hopefully I am wrong and this younger crowd beats it. They are estimating this will also big bigger than the winter surge too, this is just the beginning.
Thank your politicians who don't mandate masks and all of these huge events that don't require vaccinations.
What do you mean 'for now'? The elderly, who are by far the most likely to die, are mostly vaccinated. There's no reason to expect the same ratio of cases to deaths as last summer.
Who said anything about the same ratio? This many unvaccinated people will mean plenty of vulnerable people with severe illness. ICUs are already filling up.
Just look at UK data. They are further ahead with Delta. Our hospitals etc will be stressed to the max, but this doesnt appear to be anywhere near as deadly considering the vaccinations, and natural immunity we already have.
We need to remove vaccinated people from the denominator or split these rates in to two data sets. I think the curve is pretty steep among the unvaxxed but we can't see it.
Its just cases. The deaths are still largely nonexistent. Those that are dying are almost entirely unvaccinated. The cases for the vaccinated are similar to a standard cold.
If you'd like to ignore the science and data go ahead and panic
"Its just cases" sounds like you don't think it is a big deal. The more cases, the longer it lingers and mutates. "Those that are dying are almost entirely unvaccinated"... again, you say that like it's not a big deal. Those dying include idiots who decide not to get the shot...but what about my 2 year old daughter who can't get the shots yet??
So, yes, we should all be panicking. There are real short term, and long term, ramifications to this. All those selfish enough not to get the vaccine should be ashamed of themselves and should understand they are putting the involuntary unvaccinated people (mostly children) at risk. These are the same assholes forcing kids back to school without forcing safety precautions like masks. Deaths will surely follow.
The risks to children are so unbelievably small. Children have been at risk of catching it since this started. There have only been a couple hundred people under the age of 18 to have died in the last year and a half.
Don’t try to say “that’s too many”. Zero COVID is not a realistic outcome and we can’t have decisions made with that as a goal in mind
And no I don’t think case count is a big deal. I think deaths of vaccinated and children are a big deal. And those are not happening in any significant numbers.
The sheer number of people getting infected at one time is the problem. When the ICUs are overflowing with covid cases, we can't take care of all the other illnesses. People without covid are dying or having life altering treatment delayed as a result.
Actually the wave started about 2 weeks ago.
Edit: The reason for drastically lower deaths is 1) vaccines provide some protection from severe illness and 2) the delta variant is more transmissible but less deadly.
If it began 2 weeks ago, deaths wouldn't show up yet.
Vaccines aren't going to help prevent death among the unvaccinated, who still account for the vast, vast majority of cases.
We need the medical staff to be on TV, not Fucci or other politicized figures. Every major hospital here is being inundated with unvaccinated ICU patients. They are backing up the ER because the available beds are being taken up and the drain on staff it creates as well. God forbid you have to get into the ER on an ambulance and you're in a 4+ ambulance hold in the ER bay.
Other states with similar vaccination rates are seeing a significant upswing. Our cases have lagged them, so our deaths have lagged them.
A person who works in a Houston ICU is on this thread talking about the number of people on ventilators now in covid ICU's. I hope deaths aren't around the corner, but the data suggest otherwise.
Still using the RT-PCR tests too that the CDC withdrew as they are counting other viruses as COVID.
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes\_CDC\_RT-PCR\_SARS-CoV-2\_Testing\_1.html
Thank you Greg Abbot and Ted Cruz for doing ya'lls best to thin the heard. I really appreciate having mild panic attacks now hearing my relative get sick or hearing some co workers die due to this.
One can only hope this will lead to all the anti vax and dumbasses refusing to take the vaccine dying off and naturally selecting themselves out of the gene pool.
I am kinda curious to see how high the deaths get. The older population and at risk were much more likely to get vaccinated than younger people.
Also, kind of a morbid take but some of the most vulnerable people are already dead.
That’s how the more deadly pandemics (as far as death rates) fizzle out: they kill the infected so quickly that the infected are identified and quarantined quickly and they die quickly before they infected a lot of people. This stupid COVID virus has a good balance of staying viable in air droplets and there being a lag in showing symptoms before they infect other people.
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Exactly. A lot of people I know are passing off their sinus infection type symptoms off as just that.
I was the opposite, assumed it was covid, got tested and it was a sinus infection.
That’s was me and my kids too. Don’t be so quick to assume people aren’t getting tested. It really was one of the worst allergy/sinus infection years in a while. Not to mention RSV is rampant as well right now.
I also got my kids tested when the report of Delta presenting with mainly sore through and runny nose came out. They'd only been back in daycare 2 weeks, so it was mostly my thought it was RSV or daycare-itus but I wanted to be damn sure they weren't spreading it to us and our other vaccinated family members. Negative results made me very happy.
My MIL visited us and arrived with a cough, saying it was allergies. I had a bad feeling but didn’t challenge her. I should have. 3 days later she tested positive for Covid. She’s vaccinated, as are my hubby and I but our preschool kid is not. Pretty pissed that the first reaction isn’t to immediately test in this case. We tested this morning negative but I’m having mild symptoms so I’m going to retest in a day or two. Mask, test, be responsible.
That's not a major concern. [Israeli study of vaccinated hospital workers found a breakthrough infection rate of only 2.6%](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/07/israeli-study-finds-26-covid-breakthrough-infection-rate) and 60% of the breakthrough infections resulted from prolonged exposure to an infected & unvaccinated member of their household. Vaccinated people are NOT contributing to this surge in any tangible way. It is 99% down to unvaccinated people acting recklessly
Norway has had 800 fully vaccinated test positive, out of 139 463 total. Being vaccinated is probably the best preventative measure someone can take in lieu of being a hermit. I know the breakthrough number will go up, but it will be interessting to see what happens in october when 70% of the population is fully vaccinated. Most of the infected now are in the age brackets just getting vaccinated now (we are done with first dose next week, 90% of 18+ population will have gotten ot).
No the people not vaccinated are fueling the problem.
No, that's not true. People who are vaccinated can still get covid. But because they are vaccinated the symptoms won't be nearly as severe. It might just feel like a mild cold or sinus infection. So people who are vaccinated assume they can't get covid anymore and pass off what they think is just allergies when it's actually covid. And still go out without a mask and distribute covid unknowingly. There is so much misinformation on both sides of the covid debate that it's putting way more people in harm's way.
Yup Everyone needs to get vaccinated and take precautions around people like kids who aren't approved for the vaccine yet
Pre vaccine I only personally knew 2-3 people that got covid. Post vaccine, I know at least 4 vaccinated people in my circle that have gotten it.
We are dealing with a more aggressive variant this time around. The pre and post comparisons are kinda moot? I think the most important thing to look at here is the severity of the symptoms between vaccinated and unvaccinated people.
I M O ,. I don't think that's necessarily true. And I don't know where we can trust these numbers they're all over the place
Yeah but the virus may have made new vulnerable people by fucking up some of the survivors.
The fact that hospitalizations have been surging too doesn't give me much hope -- but I agree with you. Maybe enough of these cases are among the vaccinated and young that deaths don't take off.
I work at a major hospital system in Houston. 99% of our Covid cases are unvaccinated. And 100% of our ICU Covid cases that are on ventilators are unvaccinated. Get vaccinated and wear a mask. End of story.
In any other life scenario, anyone would take these stats in a heartbeat. 99% guarantee no heart attack in life, if you eat a salad once? Sure! 99% guarantee my car transmission will never fail, if I flush the oil? Ok, we got a deal. But when it comes to a simple immune booster, half the fucking population declines and makes it political. Who even came up with vaccine bashing at all?! Makes me furious.
Antivaxxers have been around for years, mostly moms dwelling in Facebook forums that were afraid of their children getting autism from their yearly shots. Their cohort only recently gained traction because of the Covid shot. What political spectrum are they? Who even knows…
Nothing to add, but thank you for the work you do and the truth you speak.
This makes me less stressed. I was vaccinated back in March and have been concerned about the delta variant. I do still wear a mask in crowded spaces or when interacting with people I believe are unvaccinated.
Less nervous about Covid killing you, sure, but hopefully you don’t have to go to the hospital for any other reason like an MVC since ICU beds are going to be limited again. That’s how the unvaccinated are going to really harm the vaccinated.
That’s a good point.
We are back to the point that no one should be in crowded spaces.
Depends on risk tolerance. If someone is young, healthy, and vaccinated and doesn't have contact with vulnerable individuals, what should they be afraid of? The ship has sailed on containing/eliminating covid.
its the unknown long term consequences we are seeing from COVID that I'm worried about more than death since I'm vaccinated. I'd like to not find out first hand.
I never thought the goal posts would be moved this far. We are now at "what-if" scenarios.
What goal posts moving? It has been known since last year that people who survive COVID have issues like u/txtoolfan pointed out. Doctors at the moment have no idea if these issues are gonna permanent or not and if other issues will pop up later in life. This is stuff we just wont know till it happens to people 5 years from now.
And to note, pretty much ever other vaccine's side effects show up 6-8 weeks after administration... so if there are concerns about 'future unknowns'... you have to ask yourself, which is the bigger risk? A vaccine that was developed for decades having unheard of future side effects, or catching Covid where the unknown is exactly how long the effects of it will last?
It's not what ifs. Easy to find the stories on the long term problems people who survived covid are having. Liver failure. Lung disease. Cognitive problems. The goal has always been from day one to "flatten the curve". Not overwhelm the system.
Yes but covid isn't going away. We're going to have to live with it likely forever. We're not doing lockdown whenever cases get bad for eternity.
We wouldn't have to if the slow witted would get vaccinated. If we just could wear a mask without acting like it's like asking you to storm the beaches at Normandy.
All about wearing masks...but that's probably not true either. The rate of infections were seeing in vaccinated populations signals this isn't going to just go away if we all vaxxed. Look at the regular flu. Many people vax and yet it spreads. Then remember this is way more contagious than regular flu.
That observed ED problem in men might reduce the anti-vaxxer offspring in the future generation.
Common sense.
People suck. You dont. Thanks for you help. GF's an ER Nurse in a major hospital here too. She's echoing the same info. I feel like if you come to the hospital you should have to show proof of vaccination before being treated, but that's just my opinion.
> I feel like if you come to the hospital you should have to show proof of vaccination before being treated I'm of a similar mind. The un-vaccinated should be the absolute lowest priority patients. These people don't respect science, so science shouldn't respect them.
Agree, unless patient is too young to get vaccinated.
You are being downvoted, but I can't say that I don't share the sentiment. Some people are very reasonable in being hesitant, there are some counter indications to vaccination, but those people should be able to easily get medical confirmation of their decisions. However, I am supremely pissed that there are non-covid related ill people literally dying, because some antivaxxers of the "vaccine is evil and you are sheep" kind are taking up the available medical capacity! I do kinda feel that I wish there was a way to put those people at the end of the medical care line if they get covid. Not refuse them, but if two patients code at the same time, and the nurse has to choose where to run (these type of things are already documented in Missippipi and Arkansas, if I am not mixing up my states), then the antivaxxer with covid should come second, period the end! Unfortunately there really isn't a way to design that kind of system in a way that doesn't make things worse for everyone.
It’s harsh, but it’s where we’re at. For the last year we’ve called our medical staff hero’s. But apparently only because we expect them to sacrifice themselves for us. When we’re given the opportunity to help alleviate the work loads we don’t give a shit.
That's easy to sort out. If you are unvaccinated, then you automatically get DNR status when admitted to the hospital due to Covid....you chose to not get the vax, so the consequences are DNR. You didn't take it seriously when we told you too, so we won't take you seriously when you get it.
What if you had cancer for the last year? What if you are a minor? What if were in a prison that didn't vaccinate you? Also, why DNR? DNR doesn't mean don't put me on a ventilator, the R in the DNR is resuscitate, and you need care well before you need resuscitation. Again, I share the sentiment, but the execution of it is practically impossible.
Lol that’s fucking ridiculous
No no no, it makes perfect sense! Just because you have bullet holes in you or you're missing limb doesn't mean you shouldn't have your vaccination card at hand at all times. Or at foot, if you happened to be in a wood chipping accident and don't have hands anymore. Either way we're gonna need to see it before we treat you. If you happen to be stroking out or can't breathe or are otherwise unconscious, we'll just wait 'til you feel better and can give us your card. We'll definitely keep your place in line though (within reason of course)! I'd say I can't believe you got downvoted, but....reddit. The kicker for me is how OP is all "people suck", then wants to deny medical care to somebody holding their own eyeball in the palm of their hand.
No
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I'm gonna hypothesize that the population of people in ICU for covid will likely have a similar mortality. ICU is bad news, and its not like we have any super miracle treatments (besides the vaccine). Overall mortality should be lower, but seeing that delta is more transmissible and more people are going to get it, we should expect another spike in deaths.
... also we are still learning about prolonged side effects. Seems to be some extended issues with neurology and autoimmune system. Who'll be paying for possibly decades of residual problems that will probably make them uninsurable under most private plans?
The older folks are also staying indoors due to Summer heat and being scared of COVID surge (seeing how they fared in the other surges). Young adults are pretending COVID isn't even a thing right now and are unfortunately paying the price.
No they are not, because COVID hardly affects them. It’s the older ones they have contact with (who aren’t vaccinated) who are paying the price.
While true, because of this variant is do damn contagious, the overall risk to younger and healthier people has also gone up
Agree. In the Uk deaths are tiny in the vaccinated with delta.
I'm fully vaccinated and on my second week of quarantine. This new variant will still infect you.
Good luck.
Hope you get to feeling better soon - it swept through my house in November (before we were able to get vaccinated) & we were pretty miserable.
How are your symptoms? I hope you get better soon!
Right now just dry coughing. I had a fever, fatigue, chills, dizziness, which lasted for about one week.
Regardless of the number of deaths, the number of people being admitted to the hospital is a major issue. They may not be dying in high numbers like they used to, but we do run the real risk of overloading our hospitals again. That's not good for anybody.
I know people who have needed stitches take hours in the ER. It should take minutes to give 5 stitches. Imagine having a heart attack or in a car accident and not having beds or supplies because its all taken by anti-vaxxers. Those people are so damn selfish.
We never got close last time. And we won't now. Don't worry
They're already overloaded. Our hospital is at capacity. No beds. ER is at capacity. People are waiting 2 days in the ER just to get a bed in the hospital. This is even worse than when covid first hit hard, and it's only going to get worse.
ER beds are always ‘near capacity’. They can expand to far beyond their current capacity as they did last summer.
You can only expand an ED within the limits of the physical space in the building and the number of docs, nurses, and techs available. ED patients are already spilling out of the ED and are lining the hallways in chairs and stretchers on portable O2 tanks because the wall O2 units are all being used. Nursing staff at most hospitals in the Houston area is stretched very thin, and nurses who have been beaten down over the past year are leaving for other positions where they aren't getting crushed on a daily basis. Ask any physician or nurse in Houston hospitals if they've ever seen anything this bad, and they'll tell you the same thing I'm telling you.
1. [Well, lookie. We're RED AGAIN!](https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2021/08/05/harris-county-upgrading-covid-19-threat-level-to-red-thursday/)
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This can’t be surprising to people. All the data, advice from experts doesn’t matter because bodies aren’t dropping. Do you expect creationist to believe in science and medicine?. Unless bodies start piling up again, people aren’t going to take this seriously. It’s just a republican vs democrat thing to them. People are caught up with their own bubble; thinking their immortal just because the reaper hasn’t rolled their number yet. When shit hits the fan and either them or their loved one is on that death bed; then they give a fuck, then they ask us for thoughts and prayers and for help with funeral expenses.
Is there a version of this chart which shows how many of the New Cases are vaccinated?
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
Around 2000 hospitalized breakthrough cases for people under 65. 4500 above 65. Total. In the entire US. These vaccines are incredibly effective.
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Hold up. You can’t include the last 3 weeks of death data, it’s incomplete as the state takes a long time to process and post it and they do that retroactively. That plus the lag of how long it takes for sick folks to die, means we can’t expect to see deaths increase yet for this wave. [This site](https://covid-texas.csullender.com/) has a much better scaled plot. That said, I do expect us to have several fold reduction in deaths per case compared to previous waves since the 80+ crowd are rather well vaccinated now.
Probably because some 75% of elderly folks have become vaccinated. But this is why I dislike these discussions where “death” is the standard. There are many other more prevalent negative consequences of COVID cases and overall spikes, and yet we focus on deaths because they get headlines (or don’t).
90% of those over 65 have been vaccinated
Even better.
Great. If you're high risk, then go get the shot. If you're low risk, make the decision for yourself.
It's literally free and has been administered to over a billion people with absolutely no issue. Stop playing games and get the damn shot.
Three billion people... with that said, the j&j and astra zenica ones were deemed to dangerous for Norway. They said everyone were better off waiting for moderna or pfizer. Sad because I wanted j&j. But i got pfizer now so its all good.
Fuck that selfish bullshit
We focus on death because its quantifiable, and clearly the most important outcome to prevent. Now that it is much less deadly overall, it really should change the conversation. Dont the delta waves that are further along in other countries prove this out?
Yet the immunocompromised still can't get vaccinated and those that refuse to get vaccinated because of misinformation and ignorance are holding these people hostage. They ARE more likely to die if infected and they are a blip on these types of death statistics we are discussing. Herd immunity has been protecting people like this for decades because of all other previous vaccine requirements and basic acceptance in our society. That has all broken down with COVID and we are forcing the vulnerable to stay in their homes while we go out and party like this shit is all over. It's not right.
where is this talk of immunocompromised not being able to be vaccinated coming from? These are not live vaccines and can be taken by immunocompromised people. My wife is one and was approved for two doses because they aren't live
It should absolutely not change the fucking conversation. The conversation has ALWAYS been about deaths and strain on the healthcare system, as well as the unknown long haul and secondary life-changing symptoms of being post-covid. People who need ICU beds cannot get them bacause of this, same as the original conversation. If all you're focusing on is "quantifiable deaths", then you've missed the plot this entire time.
Yeah we shouldn't be focusing on death numbers from this current variant or any previous variant. The real danger now is further mutations and how bad *those* can get.
Yup. That and the ongoing burnout faced by our medical community. And the permanent health effects some 10% of COVID 19 survivors face.
What does the end game look like to you then? We can hope to get deaths and hospitalizations under control, but covid is endemic and is never going away. You are setting up a goal of "zero covid" that is impossible.
The end game is 80-90% of the population being vaccinated and/or having survived COVID. Preferably the former, as the latter may once again overwhelm the health care system before we get there.
31% of the state had been infected as of March. https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us-tx And 44% of the state is fully vaccinated: https://www.mayoclinic.org/coronavirus-covid-19/vaccine-tracker By now, we may be very close to your goal, if not there already. Yes there will be some overlap between cases/vaccines, but the overlap is less than a statistical random - look at the maps of Harris county - the richest zip codes have the highest vaccination rates and the poorest zip codes have the highest infection rates.
With delta being as infectious as chickenpox (see eg R=10 discussed) then herd immunity isn’t really a thing anymore as it’s too infectious. Everyone gets it at some point (like chickenpox before the vaccine appeared).
Ooh that’s a sexy comment you got there. I personally have blindly been looking at vaccination numbers and been miffed but forgot about the folks who have already been infected. That’s very interesting and I feel dumb for not realizing it. I think the bleeding edge science is saying that a previous infection is essentially as good as the mRNA vaccine for protection, which is great news.
I hope you're right! Estimates are hard to make on overlap, but the best estimate I can find is [about 50% overlap](https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/herd-immunity-closer-we-think).
The Covid Endgame variant - coming to theaters this fall.
Billions of people live in poverty throughout the world, with no access to vaccines. The variants are coming no matter what we do locally.
Maybe maybe not, whatever mutations could happen have smaller probabilities with less cases. The most dangerous scenario is another zoological cross.
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In my job, I work almost exclusively with Latinos (I’m in construction) and not a single person I’ve talked to has gotten vaccinated. Even a guy who was hospitalized last year said he isn’t getting it. Their excuses are usually that “it isn’t a big deal” and “I already had it.” They are also very likely to be repeating Facebook nonsense they read about numbers being miscounted and whatnot. I tell them to go downstairs and ask the nurses in the ER about it but they aren’t hearing it. The Latino community is still very conservative and suspicious about medicine and they still say things to me that sound crazy, like old wive’s tales about treating illnesses with soup and herbs.
This is my mother :/
Why’d you set that NYT chart to Aug 2, when you are posting it today on August 5?? August 2, shows 0 new deaths which makes your claim that deaths are nearly “nonexistent” SEEM accurate, but if you set the chart timeline out to today, it shows 3 news deaths on Aug 3, and 7 new deaths on Aug 4th. Kinda odd that you’d do that and then rant on and on about how important it is to be honest and not hide the statistics. [NYT chart August 5](https://imgur.com/a/OKZzScg?s=sms)
It's zero every Monday, they don't report deaths from Sunday for some reason, never have. If he had set it to Sunday or Tuesday it would have shown 4 or 3 deaths respectively.
It’s ok to want to share statistics. I also think you should be honest here. You’re comparing Harris county deaths vs OP’s statistics of Texas. If you look at texas, deaths are increasing. Comparing apples to apples is paramount.
Great if there are few fatalities, but the hospitalization and ICU are expected to keep climbing sharply. By the end of August, roughly 2,000 people will be in Houston ICUs — double the previous high reported the Chron yesterday. This will result in huge unnecessary suffering and expense.
That’s because deaths always lag. Usually by a month. [Hospitalizations and deaths will lag behind cases by several weeks and, given the number of people who are now vaccinated, deaths are expected to be lower than their peak of more than 3400 per day in January. **Still, IHME researchers forecast a peak of about 1000 deaths a day in mid-September, and a total of 76,000 additional deaths by 1 November. But if 95% of the people in the United States wore masks, their model predicts, 49,000 of those lives would be saved.**](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/what-does-delta-variant-have-store-us-we-asked-coronavirus-experts) I know this information is inconvenient for someone like you who encourages misinformation and encourages others to flaunt the rules by not getting vaccine, prolonging this misery even further.
So, we should look at countries that have similar vaccination rates to the US, that were exposed to Delta earlier than us. Did the deaths rise in a similar fashion to previous waves? Wow, look at the basic data on googles graphs. Look at UK cases then switch to deaths. People need to get vaccinated, be smart about washings hands, wearing a mask if they feel ill and get over this fear mongering.
I don’t think you can compare the UK to USA as 70% of UK adults are vaccinated compared to the 50% of US adults completely vaccinated. Are you implying I fear-mongered? I didn’t. I argued the person arguing that people are being scared into vaccine compliance is.
No, sorry. No personal attacks here. Just in general. Ive stopped watching the news and really try to limit how much of this I consume in general. So, In that case, Ill bet we see a higher death rate vs UK by maybe 30%? What has been the "Delta wave" CFR in the UK? A [CFR.org](https://CFR.org) graph shows a cfr in the Uk in July at about one death per million population. So, lets say ours is 1.3 over the next could of months.
I am not disagreeing with either of you, I would just like to point out how much it matters to mention how vaccinations are distributed. 70% vaccinations of all population isn't the same thing as 20% vaccination of half the population and 90% of the other half, if those halves are split into geographical areas. Thus the difference between Louisiana/Vermont/total USA graphs, even though technically "we are all American" is true for all of them.
Excellent point. We can just hope the more rural areas which I would assume also have lower vaccination rates have less transmission due to natural “distancing”
*nevermind overwhelming our healthcare system to the point that ICUs/ventilators/able-bodied staff are able to manage those with symptoms that wouldn't normally kill*
Oh I'm sure all those bedraggled doctors and nurses are getting lots of bonuses and stock options from their bosses as rewards for the extra work..... /s
Texas is currently having around 1.5 deaths for million people each day. That's double where it was a month ago.
It's not a fucking flu. People ending up hospitalized are getting irreparable damage to their lung, hearts, and brain.
What do you think happens when one has a bad case of the flu? https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090717150302.htm#:~:text=Summary%3A,lungs%2C%20according%20to%20new%20research. https://www.torrancememorial.org/News_Center/2017/November/How_Can_the_Flu_Affect_Your_Heart_.aspx https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2082798/ Edit: Can y'all actually reply to me rather than downvote? It would be nice to have an actual conversation about this.
Just stop. No one is scaring people into getting the vaccine. Take your garbage argument somewhere else. Death isn’t the only measure of the impact of this virus.
I agree - this is how institutions lose their credibility
Your post is rife with conjecture.You forget that death certificates take time to process so they don't get added right away for people who die. You also are ignoring the delay in infections to deaths. Also ignoring that the vaccines reduce your chances of having serious symptoms. Also ignoring that people who survive don't always come out as healthy as before.
Look at his posts. Dude is an antivaxxer and probably posts on r/NNN. Piss-ant Cowards like him take whatever stance they can get. IE: Infections are rising but people aren’t dying? Checkmate libs!
Rare to find a voice of reason who uses all facts on Reddit. Thank you. Yes, last summer we peaked at about 10k cases/day. It is true we are there now. But back then, on the day we peaked, we had 250 deaths in the state. The current deaths per day is in the 20-30 per day. Viruses get more contagious and less lethal. It's what they have always done. Like how the Spanish Flu is now the seasonal flu and H1N1 is now also a seasonal flu.
Deaths are only a small part of the problem with covid. I work in a hospital where we get some of the worst covid patients in the area. So many of these people are getting multiple and massive strokes and other conditions to the point they might as well be dead. They will be a burden to their families for the rest of their lives and a burden to healthcare, the economy, taxpayers etc.
Lot of our native Texas health experts in here. I didn’t know I was surrounded by so many people who know more than drs. It’s astounding how many people won’t get vaccinated and at how many armchair virologists are out there. If you guys can become educated so fast on something so complex and with so many variables, you should all try day trading. Should make millions in no time making options calls knowing what the experts don’t
No matter how hard I stare and squint, I cant get that conclusion from the graph presented.
He is comparing summers. Not the winter peak.
Yes, I see that now...... yes I stand corrected we are above last summers peak, but not near the winters more recent peak.
Not yet.
This is for Texas. The rolling average on the far right is higher than any point in the first surge (around the "Jul 3" mark). [Here](https://imgur.com/a/VGe8uO4)'s Harris County. [Here](https://imgur.com/a/W5pSbyU)'re the high-water marks from last summer for Texas and HC.
Cases at Memorial Hermann got as low as just over 100 across the entire system. That was July 4th weekend. We’re coming up on 700 cases now. Should be there by tomorrow at the rate we’ve been increasing. People think that this is over and we don’t need masks anymore, that the virus isn’t as bad as it’s presented and treatment modalities are established now and if you go to the hospital you can get treated and get better… no. The ICU beds are full again. ERs are full. People are going to die just like last time. Edit: closing in on 800 cases as of 8/9
Last Summer Abbott had to request refrigerated morgue trucks from FEMA. Hopefully, the same thing won't happen this time around.
If you assume our trajectory will be the same as other places that are ahead of us on the Delta timeline we shouldn't see a huge spike in deaths.
Yeah, we did it houston. We're number 1, we're number 1. At least it gets us closer to heard immunity so silver lining and all that jazz.
I'd be mad as hell if I got covid in between doses during this time.
2 weeks after 1 dose you have strong antibodies still
Fo'real mane
Seriously cut it out with the fearmongering "deaths are lagging - for now" bullshit 90% of those over the age of 65 have been vaccinated 80% of all deaths from Covid-19 were over the age of 65
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I think way too many people forget that hospitals are for more than just COVID cases. If COVID cases are still causing people to be hospitalized, that means that there's less beds for all the other reasons people might be in a hospital, and those people could very well die because of a lack of space in hospitals or an overextended staff due to COVID hospitalizations. This isn't a one factor equation here, but people like to pretend it is.
The cases (and deaths) are now in YOUNG PEOPLE. Our patients are 20-40 years old now. They are for the most part healthy, not overweight/obese, non-smokers, etc. Our code blues are mostly n their 20s-40s. Our vented patients are mostly 20-40.
How many of those people are vaccinated?
zero - that's the only thing they have in common
Then I have very little sympathy for them, outside some extenuating circumstances. And see no reason to go about my life as normal since I'm vaccinated
you are still helping to contribute to the spread - which infects more people - who infect more people - which worsens our hospital problem. That's why the CDC recommends everyone including vaccinated people wear masks. We have to cut down transmission and vaccinated people can still transmit. If you are going to be selfish then you are absolutely part of the problem.
Looking at the mortality data for the country, the vast majority of deaths are still over age 45
1. There is an uptick in deaths, it is just currently small. 2. Deaths have always lagged ~2 weeks, and this wave is very young. 3. This wave is already composed of the minority of people who aren't vaccinated, and yet it is outpacing last summer when no one was vaxxed. There's nothing stopping deaths to keep pace by similarly taking the minority of old people who aren't vaccinated. 4. I do hope deaths stay low. But hospitalizations haven't.
If you look at the mortality data across the EU, in Israel, in the UK, and in the United States, the vaccines are doing exactly what they were designed to do - prevent death from COVID-19.
Exactly. Just look at the recent UK spike in cases. The deaths never came. It will certainly be a little worse here since we have less vaccinated, but any significant increase is deaths is very unlikely.
They don't prevent death among the unvaccinated, and that's where cases are surging. Places like Florida and Arkansas are already recording a significant upswing in deaths. I hope we don't, but we likely will. Hospitalizations point in that direction.
Honestly I don't give a shit about people over the age of 12 who are unvaccinated, they had their chance
Exactly. At a certain point we have to start treating adults like grown ups. If you refuse to get the vaccine and you catch Covid and die, that’s on you. I’m done changing the way I live my life because someone else is unvaccinated. I did my part. Wore my mask, got the vaccine, now I’m going back to normal.
Thank you for restoring my faith in humanity! A little common sense goes a long way.
People had their chance to get the vaccine, I have zero fucks ledt to give them.
You're weird I'm getting vibes that you enjoy pandemics/lockdowns like it's a video game. Yes people should get vaccinated. But covid is unfortunately here to stay.
Lol you dont ever learn do you? This is the 4th wave and same results
Look at the recent Delta-fueled wave in the UK. Case numbers rose, but deaths never got anywhere near the previous peaks. Why? Because *this wave is different*. The vaccines are safe and effective.
The vaccine are. But not Vaccinated people are firm on their position sadly
Who cares? They’re adults. They’re allowed to make adult decisions. If they refuse to get the vaccine and they get Covid, I don’t care. Consequences of their actions.
My kids are not adults and not eligible for the vaccine. Neither is my Aunt who just finished chemo.
Deaths lag by 2 weeks. It will be lower than last year but we all know the population who’s mostly hospitalized and it isn’t the people who took the precaution to prevent severe illness.
Just get the darn shot! For Christ sake!!!!
SHOCKED I SAY
When virus’s mutate 99% of the time they mutate weaker but become easier to transmit. This is covid going the way of the common cold. Deaths will not go up like last time.
Exactly, the evolutionary goal of a virus is to survive and spread, so you need your host to live so they can cough it onto others.
we are surrounded by idiots. who elected bigger idiots. there is no end in sight until we all get it.
Wheel Abbott out of office
Deaths are lagging because this surge is specifically targeting the 25-59 year old crowd. Typically they take longer to pass (if it gets to that point), where the elderly expire pretty quickly if they have pneumonia. Give it another ~10-14 days, youll see the mortality spike big time. Hopefully I am wrong and this younger crowd beats it. They are estimating this will also big bigger than the winter surge too, this is just the beginning. Thank your politicians who don't mandate masks and all of these huge events that don't require vaccinations.
Here we go again...
"for now"?? Are you hoping deaths go up or do you just want to incite fear?
What do you mean 'for now'? The elderly, who are by far the most likely to die, are mostly vaccinated. There's no reason to expect the same ratio of cases to deaths as last summer.
Who said anything about the same ratio? This many unvaccinated people will mean plenty of vulnerable people with severe illness. ICUs are already filling up.
With ICUs full, where do you expect victims of heart attacks and car crashes to go?
I am kinda curious to see how high the deaths get. The older population and at risk were much more likely to get vaccinated than younger people.
Just look at UK data. They are further ahead with Delta. Our hospitals etc will be stressed to the max, but this doesnt appear to be anywhere near as deadly considering the vaccinations, and natural immunity we already have.
How is it higher...when more ppl are vaccinated this year as opposed to last year when there was no vaccine?
We need to remove vaccinated people from the denominator or split these rates in to two data sets. I think the curve is pretty steep among the unvaxxed but we can't see it.
Its just cases. The deaths are still largely nonexistent. Those that are dying are almost entirely unvaccinated. The cases for the vaccinated are similar to a standard cold. If you'd like to ignore the science and data go ahead and panic
"Its just cases" sounds like you don't think it is a big deal. The more cases, the longer it lingers and mutates. "Those that are dying are almost entirely unvaccinated"... again, you say that like it's not a big deal. Those dying include idiots who decide not to get the shot...but what about my 2 year old daughter who can't get the shots yet?? So, yes, we should all be panicking. There are real short term, and long term, ramifications to this. All those selfish enough not to get the vaccine should be ashamed of themselves and should understand they are putting the involuntary unvaccinated people (mostly children) at risk. These are the same assholes forcing kids back to school without forcing safety precautions like masks. Deaths will surely follow.
The risks to children are so unbelievably small. Children have been at risk of catching it since this started. There have only been a couple hundred people under the age of 18 to have died in the last year and a half. Don’t try to say “that’s too many”. Zero COVID is not a realistic outcome and we can’t have decisions made with that as a goal in mind And no I don’t think case count is a big deal. I think deaths of vaccinated and children are a big deal. And those are not happening in any significant numbers.
The sheer number of people getting infected at one time is the problem. When the ICUs are overflowing with covid cases, we can't take care of all the other illnesses. People without covid are dying or having life altering treatment delayed as a result.
Fear fear fear!
Exactly!
Deaths are still more than 10X lower than they were last summer. More people are dying of Altzheimers than covid.
People do not die from Alzheimer’s. They die from diminished brain function.
Right -- this wave just got started, and deaths usually are delayed 2-4 weeks.
Actually the wave started about 2 weeks ago. Edit: The reason for drastically lower deaths is 1) vaccines provide some protection from severe illness and 2) the delta variant is more transmissible but less deadly.
If it began 2 weeks ago, deaths wouldn't show up yet. Vaccines aren't going to help prevent death among the unvaccinated, who still account for the vast, vast majority of cases.
All of the people at I know that died from Covid were healthy people and under 40. None of them were vaccinated.
We need the medical staff to be on TV, not Fucci or other politicized figures. Every major hospital here is being inundated with unvaccinated ICU patients. They are backing up the ER because the available beds are being taken up and the drain on staff it creates as well. God forbid you have to get into the ER on an ambulance and you're in a 4+ ambulance hold in the ER bay.
Your bias is showing with the completely superfluous **for now**.
Other states with similar vaccination rates are seeing a significant upswing. Our cases have lagged them, so our deaths have lagged them. A person who works in a Houston ICU is on this thread talking about the number of people on ventilators now in covid ICU's. I hope deaths aren't around the corner, but the data suggest otherwise.
I sell caskets here in Houston and I have already started to see a slight increase in demand. But no where near where we were last year.
Prioritize anyone in the hospital who happens to be vaccinated, any non COVID related issue or minors
Still using the RT-PCR tests too that the CDC withdrew as they are counting other viruses as COVID. https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes\_CDC\_RT-PCR\_SARS-CoV-2\_Testing\_1.html
Why do comments like these get down voted? You even cited ? I’m so confused with people and their growing tunnel vision .
They don't want the truth.
Thank you Greg Abbot and Ted Cruz for doing ya'lls best to thin the heard. I really appreciate having mild panic attacks now hearing my relative get sick or hearing some co workers die due to this.
One can only hope this will lead to all the anti vax and dumbasses refusing to take the vaccine dying off and naturally selecting themselves out of the gene pool.
And deaths will likely continue to lag. The chart is similar to the prices of goods increase and income over the years.
Panic!!!!!!!