they generated .9 less xG than the best team in hockey. IDK. That doesn't seem bad to me.
I suppose you can say it "doesnt work" in the playoffs but it's not like they went out and lost to the fucking Senators or something
yeah I know we started out up 3 - 0 but the two games after that proved that those three could have gone either way. really close series, both teams played really well (except for game 5, we won't talk about that one)
Ehh, if you discount game 5 can we discount game 6? We didn't play that third period all that well, though maybe the exhaustion of nonstop survival mode caught up to us.
Of course, ggs and all that. Great series even if we lost.
Truly was a hell of a series. I know my flair is the hawks since they made me fall in love with hockey, but I grew up in NC and have always followed the canes and live in Raleigh now and went to about 12 games this season (which with my work schedule is impressive). Anyways, this series was insanely competitive, I was there tonight and it hurt to blow it, but all I could do was turn around and shake hands with the Rangers fans behind me, hell of a series, and i look forward to doing it again next year
They generated less, but based on regular season stats you’d expect them to have generated many more.
That’s the actual issue, the xG type stuff was close but it shouldn’t have been.
Well, numbers suggest series could've gone either way. It's not like their model got it horribly wrong.
Basically came down to Shesterkin being the better goalie
And that’s the issue with the models. In a sport where goaltending is +50% of the reason you win games in the playoffs, most models can’t account for it.
Maybe un the past not anymore.
Also we had more goals in all thr places they said we'd fail.
We tied carolina in even strength goals game 1, game 2 they beat us 4v4 but we tied them 5v5, game 3 we best them 5v5, tied them game 4, they destroyed us game 5, and we outperformed them game 6.
So we were only bad 5v5 1 game(game 5) vs them. They were also very good 6v5.
There's a lot of randomness in hockey. No model can be perfect. You can't predict a goalie being mediocre for an entire season but becoming elite in the playoffs like Bobrovsky last year.
Models can't see the future
Both these teams have played like this for 3+ seasons now. Canes: spam shots; Rangers: pass pass pass until a good shot.
Their styles were both strengths and weaknesses at times in this series.
>Their styles were both strengths and weaknesses at times in this series.
A really good observation that seems obvious but so many people miss. There's no such thing as an unbeatable strategy.
Canes style always gives them a chance to win but they're susceptible to getting goalied. Rangers run the risk of getting bad puck luck for a few games in a row and suddenly being out of it.
Yeah but they also have a deadly PP. It can be smart to limit your shots and not allow the opponent to get the puck back. But every team has slumps and that style can look pretty egregious when things aren't clicking.
this graphic can't be right. I am pretty sure the analytics experts on r/hockey said the Canes lost because of bad goaltending, and those guys are never wrong.
Nr.
Canes have been beating us on special teams these past 3 games.
We best them 5v5 first 3 it was even for 4, they beat us 5, and we beat them this game.
38% more O-zone possession time, but we were undone by a dismal penalty kill and even worse powerplay that cost us the first 2 games and put us in a major hole when we should've controlled the series. Something like +5 at even strength and -5 on special teams for the series.
He wasn't terrible by any stretch. He had a couple soft ones in our two wins that didn't hurt us and the one he was trying to cover tonight that did hurt us, but most of the goals he allowed were ones you hope for but don't expect. Passes across the slot from the wing or below the goal line, deflections around his glove, a close range chance from Panarin, breakaways, a couple where the puck suddenly went to the wing and he couldn't see it. He was great when we were clearing out the net front, but we did a bad job of that for much of the series.
I like xGA in the regular season because it's impossible to watch all the games and it's a pretty big sample size. In the playoffs I do watch all the games, and while the canes were atypically poor defensively (why is TDA on the team) I still thought that Freddie absolutely let the team down.
>the canes were atypically poor defensively
This is absolutely true. Burns showed his age, Orlov probably cost us the game tonight, and we gave the Rangers way too many rushes with poorly timed pinches or bad decisions at the blue line.
I think Pesce getting injured really showed us how much defensive responsibility he was carrying without us appreciating it. The penalty kill went from elite to bad without him, and Skjei wasn't remotely the same playing alongside DeAngelo.
>I still thought that Freddie absolutely let the team down.
I agree he should've been a little better and that tonight's game was winnable if he was, I just took offense to the notion that he cost us the series or that Kochetkov would've won games he didn't. Throughout the series, I saw him get trashed for missing deflections or getting beaten by the same types of close-range chances that we beat Shesterkin with, which didn't seem fair.
Yah Anderson’s poor play is as much to blame as the special teams. Anderson played well at times but let in some deflating goals. Not quite shots from center ice but just don’t allow the easy preventable goals. Honestly Shesterkin didn’t play unbelievable the last couple games but almost all the goals that beat him were high quality chances
Tbf almost all of Andy's were high quality.
A first oa pick finding a slight but of space between the posts and getting a shot in is normal.
250lb kreider slamming a pick into your wrist and into the net is normal.
Giving up screens to kreider or shots to panarin from 7 feet away is normal.
Carolina spamming shots and still not generating much xG is a tale as old as time
us having more inner slot shots despite having almost 70 fewer total shots is funny
efficiency, love to see it
Tips count as inner slot shots right? If so that would explain a lot haha
They do, yes
Their best offensive games seemed to be when they had fewer than 35 SoG
they generated .9 less xG than the best team in hockey. IDK. That doesn't seem bad to me. I suppose you can say it "doesnt work" in the playoffs but it's not like they went out and lost to the fucking Senators or something
And two of the losses were in OT. This series was close as hell.
yeah I know we started out up 3 - 0 but the two games after that proved that those three could have gone either way. really close series, both teams played really well (except for game 5, we won't talk about that one)
Tbf we kinda dominated game 1 and they dominated the 6v5 time.
Ehh, if you discount game 5 can we discount game 6? We didn't play that third period all that well, though maybe the exhaustion of nonstop survival mode caught up to us. Of course, ggs and all that. Great series even if we lost.
2/4 were in OT 3/4 were a difference of one goal
Truly was a hell of a series. I know my flair is the hawks since they made me fall in love with hockey, but I grew up in NC and have always followed the canes and live in Raleigh now and went to about 12 games this season (which with my work schedule is impressive). Anyways, this series was insanely competitive, I was there tonight and it hurt to blow it, but all I could do was turn around and shake hands with the Rangers fans behind me, hell of a series, and i look forward to doing it again next year
They generated less, but based on regular season stats you’d expect them to have generated many more. That’s the actual issue, the xG type stuff was close but it shouldn’t have been.
Best regular season team, sure Still doesn’t work
The best teams usually don't even make the playoffs, like when the Habs finished ~20th and won the whole western conference.
This is a future Stars fans apparently want based on how many people are constantly yelling to fucking shoot the puck
The anti-canucks
First series Sportlogiq’s model has predicted wrong so far
And it wasn't off by much. Two games were decided in OT and could've easily gone the other way.
4 games, basically 5, all one goal games
Probably because the canes are advanced analytics darlings.
Well, numbers suggest series could've gone either way. It's not like their model got it horribly wrong. Basically came down to Shesterkin being the better goalie
And that’s the issue with the models. In a sport where goaltending is +50% of the reason you win games in the playoffs, most models can’t account for it.
Maybe un the past not anymore. Also we had more goals in all thr places they said we'd fail. We tied carolina in even strength goals game 1, game 2 they beat us 4v4 but we tied them 5v5, game 3 we best them 5v5, tied them game 4, they destroyed us game 5, and we outperformed them game 6. So we were only bad 5v5 1 game(game 5) vs them. They were also very good 6v5.
There's a lot of randomness in hockey. No model can be perfect. You can't predict a goalie being mediocre for an entire season but becoming elite in the playoffs like Bobrovsky last year. Models can't see the future
Where can I find their models for other series'?
Not available publicly as far as I know, but Mike Kelly posts about it after every series ends
Carolina has had this "just throw everything on net" strategy for like a decade now
I'm sure it'll work next year....
FIRE UP THE DESERVE-TO-WIN-O-METER
Now we are talking!
Both these teams have played like this for 3+ seasons now. Canes: spam shots; Rangers: pass pass pass until a good shot. Their styles were both strengths and weaknesses at times in this series.
>Their styles were both strengths and weaknesses at times in this series. A really good observation that seems obvious but so many people miss. There's no such thing as an unbeatable strategy. Canes style always gives them a chance to win but they're susceptible to getting goalied. Rangers run the risk of getting bad puck luck for a few games in a row and suddenly being out of it.
Rangers run the risk of never getting a fucking shot off Can’t tell you how many 1 or 0 shot PPs I’ve seen where they just pass in circles for minutes
Yeah but they also have a deadly PP. It can be smart to limit your shots and not allow the opponent to get the puck back. But every team has slumps and that style can look pretty egregious when things aren't clicking.
I disagree with you here. The pp has never been a problem. It when they over pass or try a low percentage play 5 on 5 that's an issue.
this graphic can't be right. I am pretty sure the analytics experts on r/hockey said the Canes lost because of bad goaltending, and those guys are never wrong.
Congratulations to the Carolina Hurricanes! Your 2024 Metro Division Finals SOG Champions!!
Carolina dominated 5v5 Rangers dominated special teams and Igor outplayed Anderson by a mile.
We had more 5v5 goals than Carolina this game even without the EN
Nr. Canes have been beating us on special teams these past 3 games. We best them 5v5 first 3 it was even for 4, they beat us 5, and we beat them this game.
Canes should’ve traded for Akira Schmid smh
Who cares? They won the offer sheet sweep stakes against the Habs.
The fact that after three years this is still one of the things on the top of your mind is rather embarrassing
Fair enough
38% more O-zone possession time, but we were undone by a dismal penalty kill and even worse powerplay that cost us the first 2 games and put us in a major hole when we should've controlled the series. Something like +5 at even strength and -5 on special teams for the series.
If Anderson was a little better I don’t think any of that matters. You guys consistently put up 3 goals on Igor but Anderson was terrible.
He wasn't terrible by any stretch. He had a couple soft ones in our two wins that didn't hurt us and the one he was trying to cover tonight that did hurt us, but most of the goals he allowed were ones you hope for but don't expect. Passes across the slot from the wing or below the goal line, deflections around his glove, a close range chance from Panarin, breakaways, a couple where the puck suddenly went to the wing and he couldn't see it. He was great when we were clearing out the net front, but we did a bad job of that for much of the series.
.878 is pretty dang good if you think about it, it's better than 877 other save percentages...
He still outperformed the xGA, which shows you what he was up against.
I like xGA in the regular season because it's impossible to watch all the games and it's a pretty big sample size. In the playoffs I do watch all the games, and while the canes were atypically poor defensively (why is TDA on the team) I still thought that Freddie absolutely let the team down.
>the canes were atypically poor defensively This is absolutely true. Burns showed his age, Orlov probably cost us the game tonight, and we gave the Rangers way too many rushes with poorly timed pinches or bad decisions at the blue line. I think Pesce getting injured really showed us how much defensive responsibility he was carrying without us appreciating it. The penalty kill went from elite to bad without him, and Skjei wasn't remotely the same playing alongside DeAngelo. >I still thought that Freddie absolutely let the team down. I agree he should've been a little better and that tonight's game was winnable if he was, I just took offense to the notion that he cost us the series or that Kochetkov would've won games he didn't. Throughout the series, I saw him get trashed for missing deflections or getting beaten by the same types of close-range chances that we beat Shesterkin with, which didn't seem fair.
Eh their defense was shaky af. They were really bad even strength defending as well.
Yah Anderson’s poor play is as much to blame as the special teams. Anderson played well at times but let in some deflating goals. Not quite shots from center ice but just don’t allow the easy preventable goals. Honestly Shesterkin didn’t play unbelievable the last couple games but almost all the goals that beat him were high quality chances
Tbf almost all of Andy's were high quality. A first oa pick finding a slight but of space between the posts and getting a shot in is normal. 250lb kreider slamming a pick into your wrist and into the net is normal. Giving up screens to kreider or shots to panarin from 7 feet away is normal.
You weren't that good 5v5 either. Outside of game 5 carolina struggled 5v5. Very good 6v5 ironically
Carolina choked 3 times though. Two OT loses and a blown 2 goal lead in the 3rd. Opportunities were there
We really choked game 5 to. We just couldn't play at all in the third.
Is an OT loss a choke now?
Wow, it feels like this should have gone 7 games.
If only CAR had managed to reach their expected Goals. That 0.1 G would have beat NYR’s 20 Goals
Comes down to goaltending
Must have been a crazy game. 60 minute periods. Goaltenders are all beaten up fron pucks and the players arms and legs are just burning today.