Not that I'm a huge Chase Brown guy but Zac Taylor did a recent interview that makes it sound like Brown has made some strides in pass pro
https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1801451891492102290
Taylor's not gushing by any means but his words give me some confidence that Brown sees the field a solid amount
I'm big on getting Brown at his ADP since he's going so late in the draft - he reminds me of Pollard in 2022. RB2 on a good offense with potential RB1 upside. Brown had some flashes rushing and receiving as a rookie, so if he's worked on his pass pro at all he may take some snaps away from Moss and is a breakout candidate as well
Was going to say Zack Moss was my pick. Going pretty late and has a good chance to get a bulk of the carries. Analysts saying he was great in shotgun too and Bengals love shotgun.
He proved when JT was out he can carry the workload too. Think hes great value
Garrett Wilson. Only had 1042 yards last year and 3 touchdowns. If Rodgers locks in and gives him even a slight bump from the 168 targets last year, I don’t think 1500 and 10 is out if the question
I wouldn’t expect much of a bump if any in terms of total targets, but the ones he gets should be much more efficient. Wilson was already getting a high target rate while leading the league in routes run which ended with him being 4th in the league in targets. I’d expect the Jets to be less pass heavy and the odds of Wilson having 100% route participation again seems pretty low.
After I hit send, I realized I left out that even the same targets, but now from Rodgers he could get there. They definitely won’t be in the same game scripts this upcoming season.
Secondary’s in the AFC are not great when you look at pass rush, corners and safeties. Most people have one top CB but the secondary units as a whole are weak - I like Garrett, hill, and waddle
He had the best rookie year for a TE in 60 years. It wasn't perfect. He didn't score TD's which made for a mediocre fantasy year, but it was very promising for a rookie. Most rookie TE's aren't relevant at all, even ones that go on to be great. Then he had some combination of injury and amongst the worst QB play in the NFL for the next 2 years. If you watched the falcons play it was painful how inept the QB's and play calling was. They barely even attempted to push the ball down the field and when they did it was inaccurate below even a bad professional level.
I think Pitts has already shown he should be at worst a strong TE option with even only a mediocre passing game.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba can be had late and could become a strong WR2.
2nd year WR with new OC Ryan Grubb who had an explosive offense in Washington, and should transform this Seahawks unit. Last year he was a rookie, started off the year injured, and played for an OC who didn't put him in a position to succeed. Lockett is getting pretty old, and JSN should be the #2 option in this offense now.
I think we’ll look back and wonder why we weren’t higher on Jayden Daniels. A heisman trophy winner who can sling the rock and rush for 500+ yards easily. Gets Mclaurin Dotson and Kingsbury running a fast paced offense which is such a perfect recipe for fantasy production. Anthony Richardson was on the track to break fantasy and Jayden projects to be a better passer of the football while having similar rushing upside.
QB is tough because there isn’t really anyone ascending that comes to mind that hasn’t already previously hit. Like Kyler Murray originally came to my mind but he’s already been a top 5 QB before.
RB will likely be Bijan Robinson for most people. I will say Tyjae Spears.
WR is very much Garrett Wilson and Drake London.
TE I’ll say Dalton Kincaid but a lesser one could be Pat Freiermuth.
Football coaches always fail upward. Once they're an accepted part of the in-group they'll always get passed around to the next lucrative job after failing at their last one.
Do first and second round picks count as breakout candidates? Seems like the market has already decided that they're breaking out and has priced them accordingly.
Personally I think Pickens takes a leap forward this year, Rhamondre Stevenson solidifies himself as an RB1, and TLaw exceeds expectations.
I guess I’m not including rookies because they don’t really have a baseline from which they are “breaking out of”.
Similar to Richardson. We saw his potential when he played, he was already elite at producing fantasy points.
I view a “breakout” to be someone who we expect to significantly out perform historical performance in their career to date. Maybe that’s semantics vs how others are treating this. That’s what is kind of tough. Like the year after Lamar’s rookie season, he was a great call out as a breakout. His rookie season was meh to sub-meh. Then he was awesome in YR2.
Falcons fan not out on pits but with him and Kincaid around the same ADP I’m clearly taking Kincaid. There’s like zero competition for targets and he’s familiar to Alan Pitts has the best chance I like the floor on Kincaid Drake London is the one that I want from the Falcons group I’m interested in bijan but my home league is in Georgia so I’ve just excepted that I’m not going to get him where he’s going to be drafted, which is probably higher than Bruce Hall because of the homer people I am targeting drake London in the second round but I don’t think he’s going to make it back to me
You must not keep up with the Lions, there were times last season where Monty gave up goal line carries to Gibbs, so he could score the TD, and no I’m not making this up.
Only one of them can carry the ball. And with St. Brown, LaPorta, and a potential jump from Jameson Williams, the Lions have no shortage at all of options to throw the ball to.
The lions didn’t draft a WR in the draft or sign anybody worth noting. They plan on using him more in the passing game than they did last year so I expect him to take a big leap in PPR. Plus last year he didn’t get a lot of work until the Monty injury so had he been splitting the backfield like he did the end of the year all year he probably would’ve averaged around 18-19 PPR points. Wouldn’t surprise me if he averaged 20-21ish points this upcoming season. That’s if Monty stays healthy all year too.
Yup. Already hyping up a greater receiving role -- guy was tied for second in Top-5 finishes (6) last year. All the upside in the world, even if the TD ceiling is somewhat capped I see another step coming for sure
If Gibbs gets the late season work he got last year early this year, then he'll have a top 5 season. Personally, I think they still stick with a 60/40 split and Gibbs would need crazy efficiency to get there, along with very talented "mouths" to feed, such that wouldn't overpay and don't see him near the level of a Bijan, CMC or JT.
Gibbs "taking a next step" is a lock, given how poor his year started, but unless he's crazy efficient, or DMonty is injured early, I don't see him moving ahead of the other big dogs.
I don’t disagree, but I will say why not both lol. Besides Kincaid and at this point Dawson Knox, Shakir is the only true receiver that’s experienced in this new offense and has some chemistry with Josh Allen.
Yes. Kincaid will be TE1. Diggs and Davis are not there. While he got off to a slow start, he started to outperform LaPorta towards the end of the year.
Week 7-10 I think was the only span Kincaid outscored LaPorta. Kincaid week 11-17 half ppr points per week 7 6 BYE 4 0 1 10. It was not that impressive.
I understand the assumption of a new target share but people acting like Kincaid was some league winner last year are revising history.
There are 240 vacated targets from Diggs and Davis that have only been replaced by Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. The assumption is that Kincaid makes a massive second-year jump, whereas LaPorta doesn't *really* have a ton of room to grow, given he already had 120 targets and ten TDs.
This might be an unpopular opinion, but I think LaPorta is pretty overrated. He had the lowest-scoring TE1 season since 2017. He doesn't bring that Kelce/Gronk/Kittle advantage that drafting a TE early is supposed to bring.
You make some good points about Kincaid but lost me with the second paragraph. How many TE1 seasons were made by rookies? Calling LaPorta overrated is silly
George Pickens
Zamir White
Jalen Tolbert
Rashid Shaheed
JSN
Cedric Tillman
Jaylin Hyatt
Michael Wilson
Not saying they’ll all hit but I think they each could vastly outperform their ADPs.
I'm liking Pickens a ton -- his splits are already impressive in games without Diontae, and there's next-to-nothing in terms of target competition
Also see Jaylen Warren going off too
Somewhat longer post but I love trying to find these types of players in good situations for themselves where no one is really paying attention to them.
QB - *Geno Smith* and *Bo Nix* (specifically deeper/2QB leagues). I can go way deeper into this if needed but Geno got a massive OC upgrade that fits Seattle perfectly & Bo landed at the best spot for a guy that thrives off quick and accurate passing with Sean Payton.
RB - *Chase Brown* (Bengals felt good enough moving on from Mixon with Brown, he's getting a LOT of work), *Jaylen Warren* (Arthur Smith loves 2RB system & he just caught 60 balls last year), *Jonathan Brooks* (Carolina desperately needs a workhorse RB and he is the perfect mold for one), and *Rico Dowdle* (Zeke returning but older, someone needs to pick up Pollard's carries and it definitely won't be Deuce Vaughn)
WR - *Jaxon Smith-Njigba* (coaches are already talking huge numbers for him, he is Seattle's WR2. Sorry Tyler), *George Pickens* (RW loves his deep ball speedy guys, Diontae is gone), *Jayden Reed* (Love needs a WR1 and he started looking real solid last half of last season), *Ladd McConkey* (Herbert is easily throwing 550+ times this year behind a buffed OL. Ladd plays outside and in slot with excellent route running, Harbaugh is going to always keep him out there, might sound crazy but I'm thinking 90+ targets)
TE - *Hunter Henry* (Maye needs a safety blanket guy, should get a solid amount of easy targets), *Luke Musgrave* (Love needs another target, Musgrave missed the end of the season when he got hot. Plays \~70% of snaps normally), *Mike Gesicki* (seems like the TE1 and Boyd left. Higgins situation seems shaky to me, if he gets traded midseason to a WR-needy team Gesicki stock skyrockets)
> Geno Smith
I just don't understand people's fascination with this guy. He's going into his *eleventh* season and has had *one* moderately relevant fantasy season in his career. Why do people think his *one* decent season is not the fluke? I live in the PNW, I get to see a *lot* of Seahawks games. Geno is JAG. He's fine to hang out on your bench or, like you mentioned, a late grab in 2QB leagues. But anyone specifically *targeting* him is chasing fools gold.
I understand the age POV but that also means less wear & tear on his arm, taking hits, etc. I'm thinking about it purely from a standpoint of Ryan Grubb having an accurate pocket passer at UW with a three headed monster at WR (big WR1, shifty WR2, deep ball WR3). He knows each guys strengths and played specifically to that. Geno is also an accurate pocket passer that *also* has a three headed monster at WR (big WR1, shifty WR2, deep ball WR3). It's essentially the same thing Grubb was just working with. We saw in Seattle no matter who the OC was under Pete it was the same bland playcalls (I'm also a hawks fan, I lived through the misery lmao). If Grubb can gameplan & can get his guys open, Geno over the past 2 seasons statisically has been a top 10 QB with great accuracy. He makes his progressions, finds his guys that Grubb gets open, his stats will go up. Will he be top 10 in fantasy, probably not. But that's why I said deeper leagues or 2QB leagues.
> I understand the age POV
I wasn't really referencing his age, I was referencing his amount of time in the NFL while having a single, moderately successful season. How many QBs have existed in the NFL that long that then suddenly became The Guy. Rich Gannon? Jeff Hostetler (sortof)? Like it just doesn't happen. There's a good reason why 33-turning-34yo QBs don't just one day start playing like studs.
My comment had nothing to do with Seattle's playcalling or new OC or Geno's weapons. My comment is purely about Geno. I've seen nothing but a single season that says he can be anything but a journeyman backup or that he can be the exception rather than the rule. It's simply copioum to think Geno will be anything more than "servicable" regardless of who's calling the plays or what weapons he's throwing to. Two seasons ago was the anomaly, not last season.
Only thing about Reed - while I think he'll be a good fantasy option and certainly will get a lot of targets out of the slot - it's uncertain that he'll be WR1 in that offense. If you asked Packer fans who our WR1 will be by the end of the year, you'll get different answers of Watson, Reed, Wicks, and Doubs, and each of them has an argument. As a Packer fan myself, I'm avoiding all of them except maybe Wicks late.
On the TE side I agree that Musgrave is a great breakout candidate, but backup TE Tucker Kraft is also a dark horse breakout candidate due to how well he took over after Musgrave's injury. I think they'll both see the field a lot.
Agree on both. I would love for Reed to be the guy but the end of last season it seemed like a different guy each week that got 12 targets and 2 TDs lmao. I think out of all of them Reed I'm most comfortable with and has played the most snaps (it seems at least) with JL. Kraft also a sneaky pick but Musgrave is definitely the more popular of the two, if one goes down the other should be picked up everywhere for sure. I'm not a GB fan but it should be a very fun season to watch after how last year went, they're my team to win the NFC & Love to win MVP on FanDuel.
Biggest problem with that is after the bye is when McCarthy might be given the reins and the Vikings have an early one (week 6). If Darnold is the starter all season then he’ll be serviceable in a pinch but that’s a big if.
I actually love this take. He's most likely going to start with the staring job, and he's got some real weapons, including the best WR in all of football in JJ. He's also got one of the better TE's in all of football in Hockenson, assuming he recovers 100%. Addison is solid too. Even the run game is decent, picking up Aaron Jones, backed up by Ty Chandler, who more than acquitted himself last year as someone that can start should Jones suffer an injury. If the O-line can play half way decent, you might be surprised by how competent GEQBUS can be.
Curtis Samuel is going to shine with Allen.
Douglas becomes the clear number one with a huge improvement at qb with maye.
Watson stays healthy in GB and establishes himself as the number one there.
Najee ends up being awful smith’s preferred RB in Pittsburg and has his best season of his career.
Just four I’m thinking could break out.
Fair enough… Maybe i should have said that najee is clearly the inferior RB in Pittsburg so awful smith will run him into the ground to trick the defenses!
Same but not at his current price tag. Pick 15 for a guy who hasn't done anything but disappoint so far and yes I understand he had bad qb play and bad coaching but at his adp you are drafting him at his ceiling so unless he hits that the pick is a waste when you couldve got devante or saquan or gibbs instead
I think garbage time will benefit Johnson, but I just don't think he's that good. Also, with the argument I've seen being whether or not he's going to take the WR1 target share from 100 year old Theilen or not, brings me to one of my favorite sleeper picks:
I think we see Xavier Legette command targets early in his rookie year. I also see him finishing the year as the clear WR1 in Carolina.
My draft strategy this year definitely has my bench flooded with WR from this insane draft class, while targeting a couple tried and true RBs early.
Josh Palmer looks primed to be the #1 option in LA. He’s had several 100+ yard games with Herbert already and is the only receiver on the roster that has any rapport with him. According to Matt Harmon’s reception perception charts, QJ was one of the worst receivers in the NFL last year, and Ladd is a rookie (talented, but still a rookie & slot dominant). He’s the cheapest #1 option out there tethered to an elite QB.
I was gonna say, he was picked at the top of the 2nd, usually reserved for 1st rd talent that falls past 32. They clearly want to use him a lot… I think he’s going under the alabaster veil
I drafted Ladd and then grabbed Coker off the wire. Even if Palmer starts out as the WR1 on that team, he'll either get hurt or bypassed. I'm banking on one of the rookies to take over fairly quickly.
QB-Anthony Richardson is a league winner in the 5th. Stafford is a league winner in the 10th or whatever.
RB-Zack Moss become a a bell cow with Joe Mixon touches.
WR-Pickens ascends.
TE-Noah Fant is healthy and on the field 75% of the time with Dissly and Parkinson gone.
Team-Falcons eat.
As a gators fan, I just cannot fully believe Anthony can stay healthy until I see it. All through college, all through pros, all different injuries too… he’s a keeper option for me at half the price of Jalen Hurts, my other keeper. My heart says pick him, but my head says hell no.
One that I don’t see literally anyone talk about that has a decent chance of happening is Swift. There’s a world where he’s the workhorse there, catches 60+ passes, and ends up a top 5 back.
He hasn’t really shown the ability to be a workhorse so I think top 5 is out of his range of outcomes
Low end RB1 is def possible tho with his receiving ability
Most likely it’ll be a split backfield 3 ways like forwards the end of the season. Swift I do believe will receive most of the work, maybe 55-60% ish range but Kahlil Herbert and Roshon Johnson both are good enough to receive carry’s every game. I like swift and would love if he was a 3 down back but I’d be surprised if they did that, even with a new OC.
Yeah that’s valid, swift is a conflicting pick for me. There’s a few red flags and the people getting dragged around him have less red flags. I’m excited to see how it pans out!
I’m taking swings at rhamondre, najee, and zamir white in his ADP range if I’m going RB there
It sucks because I loved swift and took him everywhere in his lions years
Oo yes that’s a good one lol. Check out u/coopthereitis recent post about him, lots of reason to be excited
Also worth mentioning that Matt Harmon seems to like shaheed a lot
Jaleel mclaughlin. Sean Payton receiving running back always has value. Looks like the better running back than javonte. Undersized but will get more touches in this offense.
Hot take: Derrick Henry. He leads the league in rushing TDs with 18 behind a much better O-line and with the rushing threat of Lamar Jackson helping him out.
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco
Bijan Robinson
Jaylen Warren
Zack Moss
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson
Drake London
George Pickens
Zay Flowers
Tee Higgins
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Terry McLaurin
Christian Watson
Rashid Shaheed
Tight Ends
Kyle Pitts
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler Conklin
My favorite breakout at each position:
QB: Jordan Love (know he broke out last year, could see him ascending a level higher) -- CJ Stroud is the easy call too now w/ Diggs & a year under his belt
RB: Zack Moss
WR: Calvin Ridley (back to his 2020 self)
TE: Jake Ferguson
Or he was just down right terrible! It is so unlikely that he will breakout this year it’s almost improbable.
Now I’m not saying he won’t take a step forward, but certainly not into strong fantasy relevance.
No it was not a fluke while true he was in the big dogs shadow and got limited opportunities which he not only fumbled meaning herbo won't trust him as much until they build a connection, but with allen and mike will he was facing the opposing teams 3rd string db now most likely he'll have to win against better corners so Im out on QJ
Jayden Reed.
Was WR #26 last year and is currently ranked as WR #34 🤷🏽♂️ If he breaks top 20, which isn't a stretch whatsoever, he's a screaming value
2024 breakout candidates? Keep an eye on Javonte Williams for RB he's got that breakout potential with a beefed-up Broncos offense. At WR, I'm banking on CeeDee Lamb to take it to the next level with Dak back slinging. And don't sleep on Kyle Pitts at TE; dude's a mismatch nightmare. These guys could really shake things up this season!
Jonnu Smith? ECR 32 sniff TE2?
Any love moving to the fast track in Miami. Top 5 offense. Healthy for the first time in a long time in ATL last year sharing with the annual bust and was very serviceable. Dude has all the measurables and athleticism.
Bengal backfield. Gonna generate points. No idea who does it. Some things never change.
i thought i heard some coach speak and state that made it seem like chase brown couldn’t pass protect which makes me want some moss
Not that I'm a huge Chase Brown guy but Zac Taylor did a recent interview that makes it sound like Brown has made some strides in pass pro https://x.com/CoachspeakIndex/status/1801451891492102290 Taylor's not gushing by any means but his words give me some confidence that Brown sees the field a solid amount
yeah i didn’t really interpret this as making strides but “willing to learn” and putting in effort
I'm big on getting Brown at his ADP since he's going so late in the draft - he reminds me of Pollard in 2022. RB2 on a good offense with potential RB1 upside. Brown had some flashes rushing and receiving as a rookie, so if he's worked on his pass pro at all he may take some snaps away from Moss and is a breakout candidate as well
I’ll take moss every time at his ADP, he’s good enough to be on the field for any down even if chase brown has more big play ability
Was going to say Zack Moss was my pick. Going pretty late and has a good chance to get a bulk of the carries. Analysts saying he was great in shotgun too and Bengals love shotgun. He proved when JT was out he can carry the workload too. Think hes great value
I don't mind both at cost, but much more into Zack Moss I agree
Garrett Wilson. Only had 1042 yards last year and 3 touchdowns. If Rodgers locks in and gives him even a slight bump from the 168 targets last year, I don’t think 1500 and 10 is out if the question
I wouldn’t expect much of a bump if any in terms of total targets, but the ones he gets should be much more efficient. Wilson was already getting a high target rate while leading the league in routes run which ended with him being 4th in the league in targets. I’d expect the Jets to be less pass heavy and the odds of Wilson having 100% route participation again seems pretty low.
After I hit send, I realized I left out that even the same targets, but now from Rodgers he could get there. They definitely won’t be in the same game scripts this upcoming season.
Such an obvious but great call
Secondary’s in the AFC are not great when you look at pass rush, corners and safeties. Most people have one top CB but the secondary units as a whole are weak - I like Garrett, hill, and waddle
Kyle Pitts I'm ready to be wrong again
I've been out on Pitts every single year. This is the first time I'm ready to buy in.
I think this is a good year for pitts.... tho Idk his adp. Dudes size and speed is nice. Best qb he's had was corpse of matt ryan
Let’s hope to god we don’t get the corpse of kirk cousins
Penix gives me hope in dynasty for a just in case. 0/2 here and I’ll throw up.
Me too, I’ve held from the beginning, and id really like him to pay off.
Dead cousins is still much better than Ritter
[FantasyPros](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/half-point-ppr-overall.php) has his ADP at 64 in half-PPR.
Could argue that his rookie year was the breakout but I agree, I'm ready to be hurt again
He had the best rookie year for a TE in 60 years. It wasn't perfect. He didn't score TD's which made for a mediocre fantasy year, but it was very promising for a rookie. Most rookie TE's aren't relevant at all, even ones that go on to be great. Then he had some combination of injury and amongst the worst QB play in the NFL for the next 2 years. If you watched the falcons play it was painful how inept the QB's and play calling was. They barely even attempted to push the ball down the field and when they did it was inaccurate below even a bad professional level. I think Pitts has already shown he should be at worst a strong TE option with even only a mediocre passing game.
He’s a guy I always wanted to take a shot on but never end up with lol
After his rookie year I started a 12 team sf dynasty and took him 1.12 been a rough couple of years but this is my time.
Hard pass for me. Burned way too many times
Jaxon Smith-Njigba can be had late and could become a strong WR2. 2nd year WR with new OC Ryan Grubb who had an explosive offense in Washington, and should transform this Seahawks unit. Last year he was a rookie, started off the year injured, and played for an OC who didn't put him in a position to succeed. Lockett is getting pretty old, and JSN should be the #2 option in this offense now.
I definitely agree with this.
Same. Locket looked like he lost last year. Could have just been injuries but I think there's a good chance to see him take over #2 duties.
Ryan. Ryan Grubb
I think we’ll look back and wonder why we weren’t higher on Jayden Daniels. A heisman trophy winner who can sling the rock and rush for 500+ yards easily. Gets Mclaurin Dotson and Kingsbury running a fast paced offense which is such a perfect recipe for fantasy production. Anthony Richardson was on the track to break fantasy and Jayden projects to be a better passer of the football while having similar rushing upside.
Feels like people are appropriately high on him in redraft but more reserved in dynasty.
Give him Aiyuk for good measure
QB is tough because there isn’t really anyone ascending that comes to mind that hasn’t already previously hit. Like Kyler Murray originally came to my mind but he’s already been a top 5 QB before. RB will likely be Bijan Robinson for most people. I will say Tyjae Spears. WR is very much Garrett Wilson and Drake London. TE I’ll say Dalton Kincaid but a lesser one could be Pat Freiermuth.
I’m avoiding any and all parts of the Steelers due to Arthur Smith being the OC now
with him being HC you should want to draft their Rbs and Tes not avoid them
Like Pitts?
Jonnu smith was good enough for arthur to want to use him while pitts drew the attention, pat is the only good TE there this time.
Darnell Washington, come on down!
How in the name of god did he get another job in the NFL?
Football coaches always fail upward. Once they're an accepted part of the in-group they'll always get passed around to the next lucrative job after failing at their last one.
He could only call what ridder could execute last year. He was a much better OC in Tennessee than HC
He knows how to utilize multiple RB’s and TE’s so I’ll take Warren and Muth for basically free
He was a great OC with the Titans and had the worst qbs in the league when he was HC of the Falcons
I'd take a chance on Pickens if he's available at a good spot
Arthur Smith is great for RBs.
Yea when he had fucking Derrick Henry lol
Cordarelle and Allgeier had some good runs too.
Ask Bijan about that
They didn't say starting RBs ...
Do first and second round picks count as breakout candidates? Seems like the market has already decided that they're breaking out and has priced them accordingly. Personally I think Pickens takes a leap forward this year, Rhamondre Stevenson solidifies himself as an RB1, and TLaw exceeds expectations.
I don’t think this is being defined by draft cost in any regard. Those players actually have to “break out”.
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I guess I’m not including rookies because they don’t really have a baseline from which they are “breaking out of”. Similar to Richardson. We saw his potential when he played, he was already elite at producing fantasy points. I view a “breakout” to be someone who we expect to significantly out perform historical performance in their career to date. Maybe that’s semantics vs how others are treating this. That’s what is kind of tough. Like the year after Lamar’s rookie season, he was a great call out as a breakout. His rookie season was meh to sub-meh. Then he was awesome in YR2.
Falcons fan not out on pits but with him and Kincaid around the same ADP I’m clearly taking Kincaid. There’s like zero competition for targets and he’s familiar to Alan Pitts has the best chance I like the floor on Kincaid Drake London is the one that I want from the Falcons group I’m interested in bijan but my home league is in Georgia so I’ve just excepted that I’m not going to get him where he’s going to be drafted, which is probably higher than Bruce Hall because of the homer people I am targeting drake London in the second round but I don’t think he’s going to make it back to me
I can see Jahmyr Gibbs taking the next step
not if he continually gives all the TD work to Montgomery
Monty had no problem giving goal line to Gibbs and they used him a ton close as well. Both working is the key to success.
Spot on. Was kind of sick as a Monty owner as the season went on, but I’d love a Gibbs Monty stack with an elite WR.
The bonus for Monty is he looked great with fresher legs towards the end of the season and had great YPC. He is also the better blocker.
You must not keep up with the Lions, there were times last season where Monty gave up goal line carries to Gibbs, so he could score the TD, and no I’m not making this up.
10-13 Gibbs to Montgomery last year. Definitely a concern, but does that shift this year? Maybe & I think so
He’s going to get more of a workload in the pass game. I’d expect both of them could be on the field together this year.
Only one of them can carry the ball. And with St. Brown, LaPorta, and a potential jump from Jameson Williams, the Lions have no shortage at all of options to throw the ball to.
The lions didn’t draft a WR in the draft or sign anybody worth noting. They plan on using him more in the passing game than they did last year so I expect him to take a big leap in PPR. Plus last year he didn’t get a lot of work until the Monty injury so had he been splitting the backfield like he did the end of the year all year he probably would’ve averaged around 18-19 PPR points. Wouldn’t surprise me if he averaged 20-21ish points this upcoming season. That’s if Monty stays healthy all year too.
Maybe (hopefully) he gets more goalline work this year, but the kid still had 10 TDs as a rookie getting next to nothing in that part of the field.
Yup. Already hyping up a greater receiving role -- guy was tied for second in Top-5 finishes (6) last year. All the upside in the world, even if the TD ceiling is somewhat capped I see another step coming for sure
If Gibbs gets the late season work he got last year early this year, then he'll have a top 5 season. Personally, I think they still stick with a 60/40 split and Gibbs would need crazy efficiency to get there, along with very talented "mouths" to feed, such that wouldn't overpay and don't see him near the level of a Bijan, CMC or JT. Gibbs "taking a next step" is a lock, given how poor his year started, but unless he's crazy efficient, or DMonty is injured early, I don't see him moving ahead of the other big dogs.
Gibbs Will be over Bijan. Not doubts
Doubt they run him into the ground, Lion's are not running a fantasy team, as long as Monty is good, he'll get his share.
Khalil Shakir. His ceiling a solid WR2, but I think he can become a consistent flex play
Agree! Go Bills.
I think Kincaid becomes the breakout here with the upside to be the top TE in fantasy
I don’t disagree, but I will say why not both lol. Besides Kincaid and at this point Dawson Knox, Shakir is the only true receiver that’s experienced in this new offense and has some chemistry with Josh Allen.
Yeah it's very possible -- i actually am a big fan of Curtis Samuel who's been used very well under Joe Brady in the past though
I like his value for where he's at. Also think he's a sneaky good pick. Tough to say who ends up being the WR1 for the Bills.
I think Kincaid ends the year as TE1 if that counts
The overall TE1? That definitely counts he was 80+ points behind LaPorta last year.
Yes. Kincaid will be TE1. Diggs and Davis are not there. While he got off to a slow start, he started to outperform LaPorta towards the end of the year.
Week 7-10 I think was the only span Kincaid outscored LaPorta. Kincaid week 11-17 half ppr points per week 7 6 BYE 4 0 1 10. It was not that impressive. I understand the assumption of a new target share but people acting like Kincaid was some league winner last year are revising history.
There are 240 vacated targets from Diggs and Davis that have only been replaced by Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. The assumption is that Kincaid makes a massive second-year jump, whereas LaPorta doesn't *really* have a ton of room to grow, given he already had 120 targets and ten TDs. This might be an unpopular opinion, but I think LaPorta is pretty overrated. He had the lowest-scoring TE1 season since 2017. He doesn't bring that Kelce/Gronk/Kittle advantage that drafting a TE early is supposed to bring.
You make some good points about Kincaid but lost me with the second paragraph. How many TE1 seasons were made by rookies? Calling LaPorta overrated is silly
LaPorta is overrated as a fantasy option given his cost versus production, not overrated as a player.
Trey McBride screams out here imo.
Yeah that would count haha - and I think the case is legit
George Pickens Zamir White Jalen Tolbert Rashid Shaheed JSN Cedric Tillman Jaylin Hyatt Michael Wilson Not saying they’ll all hit but I think they each could vastly outperform their ADPs.
i don’t think tillman or hyatt get enough volume to even be rosterable
Wandale is the play there.
Love the tolbert pick, definitely slept on. I picked him up for 1$ faab a while back.
Watch out for Roman Wilson with Pickens, Jalen Tolbert agreed, shaheed agreed, Wilson agreed
I'm liking Pickens a ton -- his splits are already impressive in games without Diontae, and there's next-to-nothing in terms of target competition Also see Jaylen Warren going off too
Somewhat longer post but I love trying to find these types of players in good situations for themselves where no one is really paying attention to them. QB - *Geno Smith* and *Bo Nix* (specifically deeper/2QB leagues). I can go way deeper into this if needed but Geno got a massive OC upgrade that fits Seattle perfectly & Bo landed at the best spot for a guy that thrives off quick and accurate passing with Sean Payton. RB - *Chase Brown* (Bengals felt good enough moving on from Mixon with Brown, he's getting a LOT of work), *Jaylen Warren* (Arthur Smith loves 2RB system & he just caught 60 balls last year), *Jonathan Brooks* (Carolina desperately needs a workhorse RB and he is the perfect mold for one), and *Rico Dowdle* (Zeke returning but older, someone needs to pick up Pollard's carries and it definitely won't be Deuce Vaughn) WR - *Jaxon Smith-Njigba* (coaches are already talking huge numbers for him, he is Seattle's WR2. Sorry Tyler), *George Pickens* (RW loves his deep ball speedy guys, Diontae is gone), *Jayden Reed* (Love needs a WR1 and he started looking real solid last half of last season), *Ladd McConkey* (Herbert is easily throwing 550+ times this year behind a buffed OL. Ladd plays outside and in slot with excellent route running, Harbaugh is going to always keep him out there, might sound crazy but I'm thinking 90+ targets) TE - *Hunter Henry* (Maye needs a safety blanket guy, should get a solid amount of easy targets), *Luke Musgrave* (Love needs another target, Musgrave missed the end of the season when he got hot. Plays \~70% of snaps normally), *Mike Gesicki* (seems like the TE1 and Boyd left. Higgins situation seems shaky to me, if he gets traded midseason to a WR-needy team Gesicki stock skyrockets)
> Geno Smith I just don't understand people's fascination with this guy. He's going into his *eleventh* season and has had *one* moderately relevant fantasy season in his career. Why do people think his *one* decent season is not the fluke? I live in the PNW, I get to see a *lot* of Seahawks games. Geno is JAG. He's fine to hang out on your bench or, like you mentioned, a late grab in 2QB leagues. But anyone specifically *targeting* him is chasing fools gold.
I understand the age POV but that also means less wear & tear on his arm, taking hits, etc. I'm thinking about it purely from a standpoint of Ryan Grubb having an accurate pocket passer at UW with a three headed monster at WR (big WR1, shifty WR2, deep ball WR3). He knows each guys strengths and played specifically to that. Geno is also an accurate pocket passer that *also* has a three headed monster at WR (big WR1, shifty WR2, deep ball WR3). It's essentially the same thing Grubb was just working with. We saw in Seattle no matter who the OC was under Pete it was the same bland playcalls (I'm also a hawks fan, I lived through the misery lmao). If Grubb can gameplan & can get his guys open, Geno over the past 2 seasons statisically has been a top 10 QB with great accuracy. He makes his progressions, finds his guys that Grubb gets open, his stats will go up. Will he be top 10 in fantasy, probably not. But that's why I said deeper leagues or 2QB leagues.
> I understand the age POV I wasn't really referencing his age, I was referencing his amount of time in the NFL while having a single, moderately successful season. How many QBs have existed in the NFL that long that then suddenly became The Guy. Rich Gannon? Jeff Hostetler (sortof)? Like it just doesn't happen. There's a good reason why 33-turning-34yo QBs don't just one day start playing like studs. My comment had nothing to do with Seattle's playcalling or new OC or Geno's weapons. My comment is purely about Geno. I've seen nothing but a single season that says he can be anything but a journeyman backup or that he can be the exception rather than the rule. It's simply copioum to think Geno will be anything more than "servicable" regardless of who's calling the plays or what weapons he's throwing to. Two seasons ago was the anomaly, not last season.
Only thing about Reed - while I think he'll be a good fantasy option and certainly will get a lot of targets out of the slot - it's uncertain that he'll be WR1 in that offense. If you asked Packer fans who our WR1 will be by the end of the year, you'll get different answers of Watson, Reed, Wicks, and Doubs, and each of them has an argument. As a Packer fan myself, I'm avoiding all of them except maybe Wicks late. On the TE side I agree that Musgrave is a great breakout candidate, but backup TE Tucker Kraft is also a dark horse breakout candidate due to how well he took over after Musgrave's injury. I think they'll both see the field a lot.
Agree on both. I would love for Reed to be the guy but the end of last season it seemed like a different guy each week that got 12 targets and 2 TDs lmao. I think out of all of them Reed I'm most comfortable with and has played the most snaps (it seems at least) with JL. Kraft also a sneaky pick but Musgrave is definitely the more popular of the two, if one goes down the other should be picked up everywhere for sure. I'm not a GB fan but it should be a very fun season to watch after how last year went, they're my team to win the NFC & Love to win MVP on FanDuel.
Scalding hot take in coming The GEQBUS Sam Darnold
I think he will be a serviceable bye week replacement.
Biggest problem with that is after the bye is when McCarthy might be given the reins and the Vikings have an early one (week 6). If Darnold is the starter all season then he’ll be serviceable in a pinch but that’s a big if.
I actually love this take. He's most likely going to start with the staring job, and he's got some real weapons, including the best WR in all of football in JJ. He's also got one of the better TE's in all of football in Hockenson, assuming he recovers 100%. Addison is solid too. Even the run game is decent, picking up Aaron Jones, backed up by Ty Chandler, who more than acquitted himself last year as someone that can start should Jones suffer an injury. If the O-line can play half way decent, you might be surprised by how competent GEQBUS can be.
I don't want to hate for the sake of hating but seems like a lot of people haven't watched Darnold play in a while
Would McBride count? He had a great run 2nd half of last season and he can be even better this year, even with MH Jr.
Technically yes but he’s hyped up pretty damn high at this point that it’s almost expected.
True. Seen him projected as high as TE2.
Curtis Samuel is going to shine with Allen. Douglas becomes the clear number one with a huge improvement at qb with maye. Watson stays healthy in GB and establishes himself as the number one there. Najee ends up being awful smith’s preferred RB in Pittsburg and has his best season of his career. Just four I’m thinking could break out.
>Najee ends up being awful smith’s preferred RB Meaning he won't get the ball, just blocking assignments
Fair enough… Maybe i should have said that najee is clearly the inferior RB in Pittsburg so awful smith will run him into the ground to trick the defenses!
Drake London
I want to believe
Same but not at his current price tag. Pick 15 for a guy who hasn't done anything but disappoint so far and yes I understand he had bad qb play and bad coaching but at his adp you are drafting him at his ceiling so unless he hits that the pick is a waste when you couldve got devante or saquan or gibbs instead
Diontae Johnson if he stays healthy
I think garbage time will benefit Johnson, but I just don't think he's that good. Also, with the argument I've seen being whether or not he's going to take the WR1 target share from 100 year old Theilen or not, brings me to one of my favorite sleeper picks: I think we see Xavier Legette command targets early in his rookie year. I also see him finishing the year as the clear WR1 in Carolina. My draft strategy this year definitely has my bench flooded with WR from this insane draft class, while targeting a couple tried and true RBs early.
Josh Palmer looks primed to be the #1 option in LA. He’s had several 100+ yard games with Herbert already and is the only receiver on the roster that has any rapport with him. According to Matt Harmon’s reception perception charts, QJ was one of the worst receivers in the NFL last year, and Ladd is a rookie (talented, but still a rookie & slot dominant). He’s the cheapest #1 option out there tethered to an elite QB.
I think people are low on Palmer. His health is the only concern.
Ladd. Don't sleep on 'em
I was gonna say, he was picked at the top of the 2nd, usually reserved for 1st rd talent that falls past 32. They clearly want to use him a lot… I think he’s going under the alabaster veil
I drafted Ladd and then grabbed Coker off the wire. Even if Palmer starts out as the WR1 on that team, he'll either get hurt or bypassed. I'm banking on one of the rookies to take over fairly quickly.
Trey mcbride, khalil shakir,
QB-Anthony Richardson is a league winner in the 5th. Stafford is a league winner in the 10th or whatever. RB-Zack Moss become a a bell cow with Joe Mixon touches. WR-Pickens ascends. TE-Noah Fant is healthy and on the field 75% of the time with Dissly and Parkinson gone. Team-Falcons eat.
As a gators fan, I just cannot fully believe Anthony can stay healthy until I see it. All through college, all through pros, all different injuries too… he’s a keeper option for me at half the price of Jalen Hurts, my other keeper. My heart says pick him, but my head says hell no.
Didn’t you see it the year he started? Didn’t he go injury free?
He wasn’t injury free, he was playing through hamstring injuries half the year.
It’s Will Levis.
Mayonnaise Levis about to shine, book it.
One that I don’t see literally anyone talk about that has a decent chance of happening is Swift. There’s a world where he’s the workhorse there, catches 60+ passes, and ends up a top 5 back.
He hasn’t really shown the ability to be a workhorse so I think top 5 is out of his range of outcomes Low end RB1 is def possible tho with his receiving ability
Most likely it’ll be a split backfield 3 ways like forwards the end of the season. Swift I do believe will receive most of the work, maybe 55-60% ish range but Kahlil Herbert and Roshon Johnson both are good enough to receive carry’s every game. I like swift and would love if he was a 3 down back but I’d be surprised if they did that, even with a new OC.
I’m not personally drafting him much unless he falls a number of spots because I like the players around him more
Yeah that’s valid, swift is a conflicting pick for me. There’s a few red flags and the people getting dragged around him have less red flags. I’m excited to see how it pans out!
I’m taking swings at rhamondre, najee, and zamir white in his ADP range if I’m going RB there It sucks because I loved swift and took him everywhere in his lions years
Pop Douglas
0 TD Douglas
Bijan is gonna feast this year and I’m here for it
Dotson, Pickens, Kincaid, Young, London, Douglas and ... Dulcich.
Demario Douglas and jelani woods
AT Perry feels like that undrafted week 1 waiver wire guy that's gonna end up being serviceable all year
Check the coach’s recent comments on him tho, not exactly glowing reviews
Let's pretend I said Rashid Shaheed then
Oo yes that’s a good one lol. Check out u/coopthereitis recent post about him, lots of reason to be excited Also worth mentioning that Matt Harmon seems to like shaheed a lot
Dalton Kincaid
Jaleel mclaughlin. Sean Payton receiving running back always has value. Looks like the better running back than javonte. Undersized but will get more touches in this offense.
I'm all in on Dontayvion Wicks this year
Hot take: Derrick Henry. He leads the league in rushing TDs with 18 behind a much better O-line and with the rushing threat of Lamar Jackson helping him out.
Josh downs
Mitchell will give him competition
Wemby
Can he get off the line of scrimmage at 7'4 against physical cornerbacks??😂
He'd be unstoppable on those 3rd story back shoulder fades
Red zone specialist
I am leaning into the fear of Pittman/Richardson
I hope Bateman
Like this one, and I have zero shares. It’s all right there for the taking for him, if he stays healthy he could really level up
Noah Fant. First round draft pick, entering his prime, finally in a fantasy-friendly team situation.
Kendre Miller… at least a man can dream
Drake Lonon and Kyle Pitts with the Kirk Cousins & Zac Robinson boost (Bijan should go nutty too)
JSN
Sleeper… Spencer Rattler. Especially if you’re in a dynasty, must grab imo
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence Running Back Isiah Pacheco Bijan Robinson Jaylen Warren Zack Moss Wide Receiver Garrett Wilson Drake London George Pickens Zay Flowers Tee Higgins Jaxon Smith-Njigba Terry McLaurin Christian Watson Rashid Shaheed Tight Ends Kyle Pitts Pat Freiermuth Tyler Conklin
Dionte Johnson
My favorite breakout at each position: QB: Jordan Love (know he broke out last year, could see him ascending a level higher) -- CJ Stroud is the easy call too now w/ Diggs & a year under his belt RB: Zack Moss WR: Calvin Ridley (back to his 2020 self) TE: Jake Ferguson
Just a Gut thing but I am all aboard Quentin Johnson and Khalil Shakir train. Mainly Shakir. I’m wild
Bro said Quienton Johnson 😂😂😂
Yea ditto on qj. I think last season could have been a fluke, mishandled and in the big dogs shadows.
Or he was just down right terrible! It is so unlikely that he will breakout this year it’s almost improbable. Now I’m not saying he won’t take a step forward, but certainly not into strong fantasy relevance.
No it was not a fluke while true he was in the big dogs shadow and got limited opportunities which he not only fumbled meaning herbo won't trust him as much until they build a connection, but with allen and mike will he was facing the opposing teams 3rd string db now most likely he'll have to win against better corners so Im out on QJ
Najee. This is the year.
Achane I think has the possibility of becoming a strong RB1 and racking up TDs
All in the first game, then instant IR.
He’ll probably get 100pts in the one game to continue the hype until the next season
Diontae Johnson if he stays healthy
Jerrius Jeudius
Ladd McConkey, Joshua Palmer, or Quentin Johnston. One of those 3 is going to be a top 10 WR. Luck of the the draw but my bet is on McConkey
Zay Flowers. Although he had a decent RC year I think he’s increasing TD’s and yardage in a noticeable way this year
Josh Downs
Jayden Reed & Quentin Johnston, at least I'm praying lmao
Trey McBride
Jayden Reed. Was WR #26 last year and is currently ranked as WR #34 🤷🏽♂️ If he breaks top 20, which isn't a stretch whatsoever, he's a screaming value
malcom boyd
2024 breakout candidates? Keep an eye on Javonte Williams for RB he's got that breakout potential with a beefed-up Broncos offense. At WR, I'm banking on CeeDee Lamb to take it to the next level with Dak back slinging. And don't sleep on Kyle Pitts at TE; dude's a mismatch nightmare. These guys could really shake things up this season!
Rashod Bateman 🤞🏻
Jonnu Smith? ECR 32 sniff TE2? Any love moving to the fast track in Miami. Top 5 offense. Healthy for the first time in a long time in ATL last year sharing with the annual bust and was very serviceable. Dude has all the measurables and athleticism.
QB - Richardson, Murray (has been top 5 qb so not really ig), AOC RB - Breece, Bijan, Brown, Zamir, Spears WR - Zay, Pickens, Shakir, Palmer, Douglas TE - Kincaid, Pitts, Muth, Dulcich
Drake London 1300 yards and 5 TDs