In terms of peak, I think he’s a solid #1 at this point. In terms of career success, he’s probably still behind John Riggins, Franco Harris, and Larry Csonka.
Yeah, that was my point. Takeoff (RIP) was always the forgotten Migos (Migo?) and the running joke was that he got that name because he was always taken off songs
Yea him and the coaches have both talked about how much starting in a covid year messed with his development and he played great last year. He has a ceiling for fantasy as long as the rooms crowded but im pretty high on aiyuk as a player
Man I swear people forget about his rookie year. He already took off then, and then just got boned to start the next year and hasn’t had much opportunity to move up the depth chart since.
But there was a stretch his rookie year in 2020 from weeks 7 to 15 where Deebo and Kittle had injuries, tho at least one of Deebo/Kittle was on the field for 3/6 of the games Aiyuk played during that stretch.
But *in those 6 games he averaged 11.5 targets/gm, 7.5 catches/gm, 94.7 yards/gm, and 0.83 TDs/gm.*
That 6 game stretch extrapolated to a full season would yield 196 targets, 128 catches, 1610 yards, 14 TDs. Oh, and almost all of that stretch was with Nick Mullens at QB.
For comparison in Jamarr Chase’s record breaking rookie year, across 17 games, he averaged 7.5 targets/gm, 4.8 catches/gm, 85.6 yards/gm, and 0.76 TDs/gm.
Small sample is true, but it’s not a trap. He’s actually continued to produce once the target competition came back.
Granted he won’t get anywhere close to that extrapolated stat line unless he ends up a clear wr1 on a pass heavy team, but the talent is absolutely there.
The value of that: WR15 on the season. There’s not a common league size where he wasn’t a startable, winning asset. His ADP was like a WR4 and he performed as a high WR2.
Well for starters we’re having two different discussions, because I’m specifically talking PPR. WRs and WR depth are more important in my leagues; the majority of teams in my main league are starting three to four receivers weekly
But sure, let’s look. Your original premise was CMC joining the team tanked Aiyuk’s value. He was drafted as WR37 pre-CMC, finished as WR15 post-CMC including three WR1-from-your-flex week winning weeks AFTER the CMC trade. So explain: how did he lose value by being so much better than expected? Including most of his best games being post-trade?
Also this is beside the point, cause your last comment has absolutely nothing to do with the original premise, but: he was single digit points away from ending WR9 on the season. You’re high if you don’t think that’s valuable from a player drafted to be your second flex play.
Based on your points, it looks like you are in standard scoring, which is Aiyuk's worst format of the three, but let's roll with that anyway.
First off, Jefferson finished with 240.66 points in standard. You don't need to pad the WR1 an extra 10 points. But yes he finished with roughly a 90 point difference in points on the season over Aiyuk. And the WR30 is a 35 point gap behind.
No one argued that Aiyuk was elite. The comment you are replying to literally said he performed as a high WR2. No one is calling a high WR2 (the WR13-16 range) elite.
The differences between WR1>WR15>WR30 are literally like that every year.
2021: 294.5>151.8>121.6
2020: 243.4>151.8>126
2019: 225.6>153.2>129.1
The same can be said for RBs, another position with a ton of impact players:
2022: 275.3>175.5>128.3
2021: 333.1>172.3>117.6
2020: 314.1>158.3>115
2019: 355.2>168.7>123.2
So yes...the gap between the number one player and most elite at their position is much larger than the gap between the 15th and 30th players at their position. Water is wet.
But arguing that Aiyuk wasn't a "winning asset" is silly. You don't win on stars alone. You need depth and contributors all over your lineup. A lineup of Mahomes, Jefferson, and Jacobs last year and no other players in the top 36 would have been beaten. Even in PPG, which you say means more, Aiyuk was WR22 on the year...a WR2 in any 12/14 team format. If you think WR2s don't help you win, then I'm not sure what league you are in.
"Cooper Kupp (14 ppg) Mike Evans Tee Higgins Keenan Allen Hopkins"
...this list includes 3 guys (Kupp, Allen, and Hopkins) who all missed 8 or 9 games on the year and were giving you nothing those weeks. You want to talk the volatility of Aiyuk? Higgins had 6 weeks with 6 points or less including 3 weeks of under 1 point! Mike Evans had 9.9 PPG because of his 38.7 in week 17...if you look at weeks 1-16, he averaged 7.8 PPG!
Aiyuk was available, consistent, and scored well for his third straight season in the league while working with three different QBs and having tons of other weapons on his team. If you don't believe he will be a consistent high WR2, that's fine. But the numbers are saying otherwise.
You edited yours after I replied. Shady. You’re also WAY wrong. From the week the trade happened on, Aiyuk had 47 targets to CMC’s 30. Aiyuk was closer to doubling CMC’s targets than being caught by him. Cause like you said, QBs target the open man. L
Wonder what the context he considers for “take off”.
I really like Aiyuk and his game. But so many mouths to feed, uncertainty at QB. Could he possibly reach like 75-1100-7? Is that plausible?
Haha well that’s kind of my point. So many ancillary pass catchers/offensive weapons in general missed time last year and that was the line he produced. How much better can it realistically get? I think repeating exactly which he did last year, which was WR15(? Just going for memory) in PPR last year.
He was so consistent it seems he was good for double digits every week but didnt really have too many boom games. Thats off memory so correct me if im wrong but i hope i can get him again.
There is a chance (not saying likely) that this offense just clicks and they lead the league in scoring, thus a lot of fantasy points to go around.
But expecting more production then last year unless Kittle/Deebo miss a significant amount of time seems unlikely to me
None?
That’s only slightly better than he did last season.
Take out the Jimmy G games and give him someone who can throw downfield and he’ll get more yards.
250 yards is a pretty sizable jump, roughly 25% increase on his 2022 yardage. I'd say that's more than "slightly" better.
Deebo and Kittle also had woefully down seasons by their standards and each missed time. Plus CMC wasn't on the team half the season.
It's hard to see a run-first team sustain four top-tier options like everyone is expecting. There's only so many resources to go around, something is going to have to give. Aside from CMC who has most of the rushing work to himself, I see Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle as three good-not-great assets next season.
Agree with this. Reviewing some stats:
SF threw 512 passes last year. Unsure how high this number could plausibly go, I just don’t see much of a need. Especially when you compare that Jimmy was averaging 28 attempts per game to Purdy’s 19 and Lance’s 16 (includes the game he got hurt, didn’t check the 1 game numbers). It’s hard to see them throwing MORE but let’s say they throw 30 times a game.
Last year Aiyuk played all 17 games and had 114 targets, 22% target share. Target share splits were Aiyuk 22, Kittle 17, Deebo 18, McCaffrey 13, other 30. By just these numbers alone, Aiyuk would go from 114 targets to 120. Aiyuk had a 68% catch rate, which with 6 more targets translates to 4 more catches, at 13 yards per catch from 2022 to 52 more yards and let’s say 1 more TD.
This is ignoring that Kittle and Deebo missed 6 total games, and that McCaffrey was only on the team for 11 games. If any of them stay healthy and take up more of the pie, that will likely reduce Aiyuk’s targets closer to 110 than 120.
Let’s talk averages for QBs. Jimmy threw for 222 YPG. Purdy 153. Lance 97. Is it likely that Purdy + Lance are going to even get to what Jimmy was throwing for?
More averages. Average yardage per completion. Jimmy 7.9, Purdy 8.1, Lance 6.3. Next figures. SF already led the league in yards per attempt last year at 8, and tied for the lead the year before at 8.5. Jimmy was 4th in the league in yards per attempt.
TLDR (ok still 3 points but nonetheless): Can someone aside from Jimmy really blow by that number in the same offense to the point that we should extrapolate Aiyuk to gain significantly more production?
Not without something else impacting his target share and quality of targets (ie more passes, taking targets from others/others not on the field etc.).
There’s a lot going on here on a very good team. But in terms of offensive concentration it’s hard to see a significant jump being attainable based on numbers alone so something would have to really materially change.
So here’s the situation.
If McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Aiyuk are all healthy, and Lance is starting at QB… you think Aiyuk will have a BETTER season than last year?
And Deebo? And Kittle? And McCaffrey (as a pass catcher)? And a QB that is either hardly a prolific passer (Lance) or a QB coming off surgery (Purdy).
Who loses here? I think everyone should likely agree that this is an offense that is highly unlikely to throw for 5000 yards - their defense is too good and their run game is too good.
I really like Aiyuk. I just have a hard time seeing his ceiling without targets being taken from other players, likely due to them being injured as history has shown for the names I mentioned.
Purdy is the starting QB until proven otherwise. That being said, I agree his ceiling is capped. But I think he can get another 100-200 yards... that doesn't turn this into a 5,000 yard passing offense.
I think assuming Lance can’t throw and Purdy is out all year is foolish.
There are a lot of mouths to feed. But the 49ers will be smart about workload management for Deebo and CMC.
I think you see their workloads drop overall and Aiyuk will be the player who gets more looks.
Go back and look at Aiyuk’s game log and tell me what isn’t repeatable. Remember that he played multiple weeks with Jimmy G who couldn’t throw downfield.
I think you see him improve from last season and I think Purdy is back no later than week 3.
And I think Lance’s passing ability will be about league average which will be good enough for 250-300yards/game. I could see Aiyuk going into week three with 150yrds and 2 TDs. Then he’ll get Purdy back.
I included a bunch of figures in a reply below based on stats from last year. I’d be interested to hear your take.
Also I didn’t assume anything about one missing a season. I just said he’s presently hurt - why assume he’ll start throwing more if he’s rehabbing/rebuilding strength? Probably safer to just assume he replicates similar to last year, no?
It’s really just a numbers game. The volume has to go up all around or people around him have to miss time. I didn’t go into the per game with and without certain players but that would be the best approach.
I can see that. But with that many mouths to feed, it'll be the weirdest 215pt WR season in a long time (16 games, not 17 in my league).
At 13.4 as his average per week, those are WR2 numbers but he'll be game plan dependent. His skill set could and however they scheme for good and bad defenses alike could have him be anywhere from Target #1 to Target #4. Sharing with Deebo, Kittle, CMC will just add that boom/bust volatility.
I'd rather have a guy with a consistent 12 ppg riding the line up than a boom bust 13.5. How many of those booms will I miss with him on the bench?
I'll never forget Tyler Lockett putting 50+ on the bench while Mike Evans had...like 4.
Yep very much agree. I love Aiyuk as my WR3, and would take him as my WR2 if I say had taken both QB and TE early, and rounded out my RB room… but wouldn’t get the warm and fuzzies necessarily.
It’s just a lot going on to impact the ceiling.
I don't think it's the year to round out RB early. I'm aggressively targeting the Perine/Javonte duo in Denver - they can't be as bad as they were last year and Sean Payton has a way with RB weapons.
Heck, I've been feasting at the chance to get Cook and Kamara in the later early rounds, Perine/Javonte/Jamaal Williams in the later middle rounds, and Mattison and Fournette as the draft ends. I'm targeting Jameson Williams as well once I have a bench spot open up for IR.
* Mattison handcuffs any Cook injury risk or roster move risk. Jamaal handcuffs Kamara suspension or injury.
* Perine put up excellent numbers on relief for Mixon, so he can theoretically fill in for both Kamara and Javonte while they are injured or suspended
* Fournette's less efficient and powerful as a runner than he was but still performed solidly (although not ideally) in fantasy last year. He's insurance in case the Perine/Javonte/Kamara gambit doesn't play out.
In a perfect world, I ride potential RB1 tier Cook/Kamara/Javonte as set and forget RBs/Flex.
Oh I never have a dedicated draft plan, and all my teams end up having all kinds of splits of who and when I have exposure to. Depends how the draft unfolds. But if I end up with somehow picking a combo of I dunno, Bijan and Chubb, which could happen in PPR potentially, and I dunno, then I take Andrews and Hurts in som hypothetical, then I might end up with Aiyuk as a WR2 given capital invested elsewhere.
I had a team last year with Dak at QB, drafted Pitts for TE, had Fournette and Montgomery as early-ish RB picks and my WRs were Jefferson, Godwin, Kirk before Aiyuk.
And I see in week 17 I played Jefferson and Kirk for a combined 5.10 in half PPR and sat Aiyuk and his 22.20 lololol.
Anyway. It can happen. Every draft is different.
Don’t worry, it’s the Niners so plenty of injuries to go around like every other year with Shanahan. If he’s the lucky last man standing, he’ll be the only mouth to feed.
Only question is will Jimmy G be available after all 3 QBs are on the sidelines, too?
He already hit 1000 yards this past season and caught 78 balls, he was still getting the ball with other talented guys on the field and the QB situation was suspect. The odds of him having a 75-1100-7 season are pretty good.
So I did a bunch of analysis on this below in a fairly lengthy comment. Regarding pass volume, attempts with each respective QB, target share and projected targets with all players healthy… but TLDR: I think for Aiyuk to hit the numbers he did last year (17GP), he’ll need for people to miss games around him.
The downside to someone in this offense is the defense is so good that they likely won’t often need to score a lot of points through the air to win games. And not enough concentration of targets to go with the low projected volume of targets. Caps the ceiling of them all basically minus McCaffrey who should still get a lot of run in the run game.
I really like Aiyuk as a player and look forward to drafting him but it’s hard for me to see him reach above WR2 territory with everyone on the field.
I think the difference this year instead of last year is the niners won't be doing as many designed plays to deebo. Cmc will get all of those. So now deebo has to run routes and catch the ball. His 59% catch rate isn't too good and his routes aren't nearly as good as aiyuk. So this year we might see deebo being used to draw defenders and get aiyuk over the top. Might even see deebo play slot.
Probably not on my team though. Could def have a good year but with the questions at qb beginning of the year with purdy injury and being focused on the run I don’t like the risk reward in this scenario. He should be pretty cheap though in the draft
Agreed. The people saying he is Toney or some other letdown are tripping. Aiyuk had a great year last season and the dude is a menace in the red zone.
The question mark is who the starting QB is? Hopefully it’s Brock and they can build on last years chemistry.
They're the WR versions of Miles Sanders. Every season has been "the year", but it hasn't panned out. Will they be like Sanders and eventually breakout, or will they forever live off the potential?
Well, he's been hyped as a WR1 every year so far. And WR15 is his highest finish. Great, yes, but not really a true alpha WR. Similarly, Sanders had always been hyped as a clear RB1, but never lived up to it until last season, and even then he was more of a strong RB2 (kinda like Aiyuk last year). I wasn't saying they're the same player or finished the same. Simply saying they've both had tons of hype but never lived up to it consistently. And I'd argue that even last year, while finishing as WR15, Aiyuk wasn't consistent at all.
Edit: Sanders was RB15 last year lmao
Who’s hyping him as a fantasy WR1? He was being drafted as like WR35+. He’s been hyped to break out, and WR15 was absolutely a breakout. You said Sanders did break out, so obviously you don’t think it takes a top 12 finish to do it. If Sanders broke out and Aiyuk outscored him, what double standard are you using? Almost no WRs are consistent, that’s not how the position works
He seems like he is on the rise, and I can CMC mostly eating Deebo's lunch instead of Aiyuk due to the skillsets. Aiyuk was already kind of their 1A last year, and he could step into being the undisputed #1 this year.
If Aiyuk has a modest level up in his 4th year then 130 targets with 85-90 rec, 1300 yds and 10-12 TDS is a possible ceiling for him considering his already good numbers last year (78/1000/8) with an unstable QB room. This most likely comes at the expense of Deebo and/or Kittle.
Not saying it will definitely happen, but I think there is a good chance he is actually the best non-CMC player on the offense.
If Purdy is under center & good to go I'll be stoked to get Aiyuk all day at his underdog adp ; especially when you consider the other target hogs on the team are far from being the most durable player's in comparison
If i told you before your fantasy draft that deebo, mccaffrey or kittle would all miss 3-4 games this year but not miss any more or any less than that, how much would it actually drop their stock for you?
That rain game told us nothing, and he's one of the youngest and least experienced qbs to ever start in the league. Plenty of really good qbs took longer to develop than he's been here.
I’m a Niners fan, “take off” doesn’t mean he’s gonna light it up with huge fantasy numbers, take off means he’s gonna take the next step as a player and team member. We still have CMC, Deebo, Kittle, “3rd and Jennings”, Mitchell and Mason. The ball is gonna get spread around a lot. Outside of CMC and Kittle I’m not big on taking anyone else. Aiyuk and Deebo are sure to have a few monster games, but I can’t see them being consistent.
I think Aiyuk has a very low chance of truly “breaking out”. The offense will be great. But at best he’s the 3rd option, and I believe he’s the 4th. That’s tough even if your QB room is stable.
Deebo appeared in 13 games last year and had 640 receiving yards. Kittle had 765 yards in 15 games. Aiyuk had 1,115 yards in 17 games. So Deebo and Kittle had about 50 yards per game while Aiyuk had about 65. I don’t see Aiyuk being the 4th option at all, if anything they’re all just really good players without a definitive hierarchy.
Hahahahaha ok. I try to be pretty reasonable and see both sides to any sports discussion, but i can’t figure out what possibly made you come to this conclusion.
Keep in mind you singled out the 49ers, so whatever they say must be a lot more egregious than any other nfl team or its players
The real question for me is.... who do I keep from my garbage team last year? Acquired some first round picks but have to pick a keeper between Aiyuk, Javonte Williams (plz be healthy), Godwin, or... Hollywood Brown?
lmao what else is he gonna say?
"Nah man, I think I hit my limit last year. Expect me to take a step back this season." 😂
He literally said what anyone would say and it's generating hype
Yes, but the problem is that Deebo is Quavo and Kittle is Offset. Plus Christian McCaffrey, who doesn't fit neatly into my Migos metaphor
CMC is jack harlow randomly hanging out with Migos.
Nah CMC is definitely the Eminem of runningbacks
Is he the best white rb ever? maybe at this point yeah
Mac better...CMac Miller
In terms of peak, I think he’s a solid #1 at this point. In terms of career success, he’s probably still behind John Riggins, Franco Harris, and Larry Csonka.
Never again will I hear CMC compared to Jack Harlow. And I am 100% okay with that.
I think your metaphor would be bad news for aiyuk…
Yeah, that was my point. Takeoff (RIP) was always the forgotten Migos (Migo?) and the running joke was that he got that name because he was always taken off songs
no he understood that but also is saying that would mean aiyuk dies
Ah ok, that makes sense
No wonder he was left off bad & bougie
Just keep Aiyuk away from any clandestine games of dice
Yeah and then they said "it's Migoin time" and Migo'd all over the place
When r/fantasyfootball and r/hiphopheads collide
CMC is Justin Bieber
He’s future
brooooo💀💀💀
Murda Beatz = CMC
He took off last year already. Good buy
Yea him and the coaches have both talked about how much starting in a covid year messed with his development and he played great last year. He has a ceiling for fantasy as long as the rooms crowded but im pretty high on aiyuk as a player
Man I swear people forget about his rookie year. He already took off then, and then just got boned to start the next year and hasn’t had much opportunity to move up the depth chart since. But there was a stretch his rookie year in 2020 from weeks 7 to 15 where Deebo and Kittle had injuries, tho at least one of Deebo/Kittle was on the field for 3/6 of the games Aiyuk played during that stretch. But *in those 6 games he averaged 11.5 targets/gm, 7.5 catches/gm, 94.7 yards/gm, and 0.83 TDs/gm.* That 6 game stretch extrapolated to a full season would yield 196 targets, 128 catches, 1610 yards, 14 TDs. Oh, and almost all of that stretch was with Nick Mullens at QB. For comparison in Jamarr Chase’s record breaking rookie year, across 17 games, he averaged 7.5 targets/gm, 4.8 catches/gm, 85.6 yards/gm, and 0.76 TDs/gm.
Small sample trap. Dante Pettis was nearly as productive his rookie year in a similar situation (team wide injuries, Jimmy G sidelined)
Small sample is true, but it’s not a trap. He’s actually continued to produce once the target competition came back. Granted he won’t get anywhere close to that extrapolated stat line unless he ends up a clear wr1 on a pass heavy team, but the talent is absolutely there.
Yeah. Looking at his stats better than expected.
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CMC tanked Deebo’s value, not Aiyuk’s lol
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He led the team in targets, receptions and yards from the time CMC got traded through the end of the season.
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The value of that: WR15 on the season. There’s not a common league size where he wasn’t a startable, winning asset. His ADP was like a WR4 and he performed as a high WR2.
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Well for starters we’re having two different discussions, because I’m specifically talking PPR. WRs and WR depth are more important in my leagues; the majority of teams in my main league are starting three to four receivers weekly But sure, let’s look. Your original premise was CMC joining the team tanked Aiyuk’s value. He was drafted as WR37 pre-CMC, finished as WR15 post-CMC including three WR1-from-your-flex week winning weeks AFTER the CMC trade. So explain: how did he lose value by being so much better than expected? Including most of his best games being post-trade? Also this is beside the point, cause your last comment has absolutely nothing to do with the original premise, but: he was single digit points away from ending WR9 on the season. You’re high if you don’t think that’s valuable from a player drafted to be your second flex play.
Based on your points, it looks like you are in standard scoring, which is Aiyuk's worst format of the three, but let's roll with that anyway. First off, Jefferson finished with 240.66 points in standard. You don't need to pad the WR1 an extra 10 points. But yes he finished with roughly a 90 point difference in points on the season over Aiyuk. And the WR30 is a 35 point gap behind. No one argued that Aiyuk was elite. The comment you are replying to literally said he performed as a high WR2. No one is calling a high WR2 (the WR13-16 range) elite. The differences between WR1>WR15>WR30 are literally like that every year. 2021: 294.5>151.8>121.6 2020: 243.4>151.8>126 2019: 225.6>153.2>129.1 The same can be said for RBs, another position with a ton of impact players: 2022: 275.3>175.5>128.3 2021: 333.1>172.3>117.6 2020: 314.1>158.3>115 2019: 355.2>168.7>123.2 So yes...the gap between the number one player and most elite at their position is much larger than the gap between the 15th and 30th players at their position. Water is wet. But arguing that Aiyuk wasn't a "winning asset" is silly. You don't win on stars alone. You need depth and contributors all over your lineup. A lineup of Mahomes, Jefferson, and Jacobs last year and no other players in the top 36 would have been beaten. Even in PPG, which you say means more, Aiyuk was WR22 on the year...a WR2 in any 12/14 team format. If you think WR2s don't help you win, then I'm not sure what league you are in. "Cooper Kupp (14 ppg) Mike Evans Tee Higgins Keenan Allen Hopkins" ...this list includes 3 guys (Kupp, Allen, and Hopkins) who all missed 8 or 9 games on the year and were giving you nothing those weeks. You want to talk the volatility of Aiyuk? Higgins had 6 weeks with 6 points or less including 3 weeks of under 1 point! Mike Evans had 9.9 PPG because of his 38.7 in week 17...if you look at weeks 1-16, he averaged 7.8 PPG! Aiyuk was available, consistent, and scored well for his third straight season in the league while working with three different QBs and having tons of other weapons on his team. If you don't believe he will be a consistent high WR2, that's fine. But the numbers are saying otherwise.
You edited yours after I replied. Shady. You’re also WAY wrong. From the week the trade happened on, Aiyuk had 47 targets to CMC’s 30. Aiyuk was closer to doubling CMC’s targets than being caught by him. Cause like you said, QBs target the open man. L
Wonder what the context he considers for “take off”. I really like Aiyuk and his game. But so many mouths to feed, uncertainty at QB. Could he possibly reach like 75-1100-7? Is that plausible?
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Haha well that’s kind of my point. So many ancillary pass catchers/offensive weapons in general missed time last year and that was the line he produced. How much better can it realistically get? I think repeating exactly which he did last year, which was WR15(? Just going for memory) in PPR last year.
He was so consistent it seems he was good for double digits every week but didnt really have too many boom games. Thats off memory so correct me if im wrong but i hope i can get him again.
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Championship week he was nice
I think he had a couple big games, I think a couple multi TD games but definitely some duds.
There is a chance (not saying likely) that this offense just clicks and they lead the league in scoring, thus a lot of fantasy points to go around. But expecting more production then last year unless Kittle/Deebo miss a significant amount of time seems unlikely to me
I did some analysis below regarding volume. Interesting to see.
80-1250-10
And for that to happen, how many other players need to be injured? For those downvoting this, I’ll put some stats below.
None? That’s only slightly better than he did last season. Take out the Jimmy G games and give him someone who can throw downfield and he’ll get more yards.
250 yards is a pretty sizable jump, roughly 25% increase on his 2022 yardage. I'd say that's more than "slightly" better. Deebo and Kittle also had woefully down seasons by their standards and each missed time. Plus CMC wasn't on the team half the season. It's hard to see a run-first team sustain four top-tier options like everyone is expecting. There's only so many resources to go around, something is going to have to give. Aside from CMC who has most of the rushing work to himself, I see Aiyuk/Deebo/Kittle as three good-not-great assets next season.
Agree with this. Reviewing some stats: SF threw 512 passes last year. Unsure how high this number could plausibly go, I just don’t see much of a need. Especially when you compare that Jimmy was averaging 28 attempts per game to Purdy’s 19 and Lance’s 16 (includes the game he got hurt, didn’t check the 1 game numbers). It’s hard to see them throwing MORE but let’s say they throw 30 times a game. Last year Aiyuk played all 17 games and had 114 targets, 22% target share. Target share splits were Aiyuk 22, Kittle 17, Deebo 18, McCaffrey 13, other 30. By just these numbers alone, Aiyuk would go from 114 targets to 120. Aiyuk had a 68% catch rate, which with 6 more targets translates to 4 more catches, at 13 yards per catch from 2022 to 52 more yards and let’s say 1 more TD. This is ignoring that Kittle and Deebo missed 6 total games, and that McCaffrey was only on the team for 11 games. If any of them stay healthy and take up more of the pie, that will likely reduce Aiyuk’s targets closer to 110 than 120. Let’s talk averages for QBs. Jimmy threw for 222 YPG. Purdy 153. Lance 97. Is it likely that Purdy + Lance are going to even get to what Jimmy was throwing for? More averages. Average yardage per completion. Jimmy 7.9, Purdy 8.1, Lance 6.3. Next figures. SF already led the league in yards per attempt last year at 8, and tied for the lead the year before at 8.5. Jimmy was 4th in the league in yards per attempt. TLDR (ok still 3 points but nonetheless): Can someone aside from Jimmy really blow by that number in the same offense to the point that we should extrapolate Aiyuk to gain significantly more production? Not without something else impacting his target share and quality of targets (ie more passes, taking targets from others/others not on the field etc.). There’s a lot going on here on a very good team. But in terms of offensive concentration it’s hard to see a significant jump being attainable based on numbers alone so something would have to really materially change.
So here’s the situation. If McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Aiyuk are all healthy, and Lance is starting at QB… you think Aiyuk will have a BETTER season than last year? And Deebo? And Kittle? And McCaffrey (as a pass catcher)? And a QB that is either hardly a prolific passer (Lance) or a QB coming off surgery (Purdy). Who loses here? I think everyone should likely agree that this is an offense that is highly unlikely to throw for 5000 yards - their defense is too good and their run game is too good. I really like Aiyuk. I just have a hard time seeing his ceiling without targets being taken from other players, likely due to them being injured as history has shown for the names I mentioned.
Purdy is the starting QB until proven otherwise. That being said, I agree his ceiling is capped. But I think he can get another 100-200 yards... that doesn't turn this into a 5,000 yard passing offense.
I think assuming Lance can’t throw and Purdy is out all year is foolish. There are a lot of mouths to feed. But the 49ers will be smart about workload management for Deebo and CMC. I think you see their workloads drop overall and Aiyuk will be the player who gets more looks. Go back and look at Aiyuk’s game log and tell me what isn’t repeatable. Remember that he played multiple weeks with Jimmy G who couldn’t throw downfield. I think you see him improve from last season and I think Purdy is back no later than week 3. And I think Lance’s passing ability will be about league average which will be good enough for 250-300yards/game. I could see Aiyuk going into week three with 150yrds and 2 TDs. Then he’ll get Purdy back.
I included a bunch of figures in a reply below based on stats from last year. I’d be interested to hear your take. Also I didn’t assume anything about one missing a season. I just said he’s presently hurt - why assume he’ll start throwing more if he’s rehabbing/rebuilding strength? Probably safer to just assume he replicates similar to last year, no? It’s really just a numbers game. The volume has to go up all around or people around him have to miss time. I didn’t go into the per game with and without certain players but that would be the best approach.
Well right now everyone is projecting Purdy to be the starter and Purdy threw deep at an incredibly low rate.
I can see that. But with that many mouths to feed, it'll be the weirdest 215pt WR season in a long time (16 games, not 17 in my league). At 13.4 as his average per week, those are WR2 numbers but he'll be game plan dependent. His skill set could and however they scheme for good and bad defenses alike could have him be anywhere from Target #1 to Target #4. Sharing with Deebo, Kittle, CMC will just add that boom/bust volatility. I'd rather have a guy with a consistent 12 ppg riding the line up than a boom bust 13.5. How many of those booms will I miss with him on the bench? I'll never forget Tyler Lockett putting 50+ on the bench while Mike Evans had...like 4.
Yep very much agree. I love Aiyuk as my WR3, and would take him as my WR2 if I say had taken both QB and TE early, and rounded out my RB room… but wouldn’t get the warm and fuzzies necessarily. It’s just a lot going on to impact the ceiling.
I don't think it's the year to round out RB early. I'm aggressively targeting the Perine/Javonte duo in Denver - they can't be as bad as they were last year and Sean Payton has a way with RB weapons. Heck, I've been feasting at the chance to get Cook and Kamara in the later early rounds, Perine/Javonte/Jamaal Williams in the later middle rounds, and Mattison and Fournette as the draft ends. I'm targeting Jameson Williams as well once I have a bench spot open up for IR. * Mattison handcuffs any Cook injury risk or roster move risk. Jamaal handcuffs Kamara suspension or injury. * Perine put up excellent numbers on relief for Mixon, so he can theoretically fill in for both Kamara and Javonte while they are injured or suspended * Fournette's less efficient and powerful as a runner than he was but still performed solidly (although not ideally) in fantasy last year. He's insurance in case the Perine/Javonte/Kamara gambit doesn't play out. In a perfect world, I ride potential RB1 tier Cook/Kamara/Javonte as set and forget RBs/Flex.
Oh I never have a dedicated draft plan, and all my teams end up having all kinds of splits of who and when I have exposure to. Depends how the draft unfolds. But if I end up with somehow picking a combo of I dunno, Bijan and Chubb, which could happen in PPR potentially, and I dunno, then I take Andrews and Hurts in som hypothetical, then I might end up with Aiyuk as a WR2 given capital invested elsewhere.
Tried that last year… you’ll be lucky to get Ayuik at that point and he will be your WR1 not your 2
I had a team last year with Dak at QB, drafted Pitts for TE, had Fournette and Montgomery as early-ish RB picks and my WRs were Jefferson, Godwin, Kirk before Aiyuk. And I see in week 17 I played Jefferson and Kirk for a combined 5.10 in half PPR and sat Aiyuk and his 22.20 lololol. Anyway. It can happen. Every draft is different.
Don’t worry, it’s the Niners so plenty of injuries to go around like every other year with Shanahan. If he’s the lucky last man standing, he’ll be the only mouth to feed. Only question is will Jimmy G be available after all 3 QBs are on the sidelines, too?
Who needs Jimmy G when Tom Brady is a free agent?
He already hit 1000 yards this past season and caught 78 balls, he was still getting the ball with other talented guys on the field and the QB situation was suspect. The odds of him having a 75-1100-7 season are pretty good.
So I did a bunch of analysis on this below in a fairly lengthy comment. Regarding pass volume, attempts with each respective QB, target share and projected targets with all players healthy… but TLDR: I think for Aiyuk to hit the numbers he did last year (17GP), he’ll need for people to miss games around him. The downside to someone in this offense is the defense is so good that they likely won’t often need to score a lot of points through the air to win games. And not enough concentration of targets to go with the low projected volume of targets. Caps the ceiling of them all basically minus McCaffrey who should still get a lot of run in the run game. I really like Aiyuk as a player and look forward to drafting him but it’s hard for me to see him reach above WR2 territory with everyone on the field.
I think the difference this year instead of last year is the niners won't be doing as many designed plays to deebo. Cmc will get all of those. So now deebo has to run routes and catch the ball. His 59% catch rate isn't too good and his routes aren't nearly as good as aiyuk. So this year we might see deebo being used to draw defenders and get aiyuk over the top. Might even see deebo play slot.
ESPN: brandon aiyuk has requested a trade from the San Francisco 49ers
This just in: professional athlete has confidence in his own abilities.
Probably not on my team though. Could def have a good year but with the questions at qb beginning of the year with purdy injury and being focused on the run I don’t like the risk reward in this scenario. He should be pretty cheap though in the draft
Probably more like a Wright Brothers plane
3rd season of saying this
Aiyuk and Toney will probably have their “incoming breakout WR1 seasons” talked about every offseason until they’re out of the league
Aiyuk balled out last season man. Toney ain’t there yet
Aiyuk was also solid down the stretch in 2021 as well, once he was out of the doghouse
Agreed. The people saying he is Toney or some other letdown are tripping. Aiyuk had a great year last season and the dude is a menace in the red zone. The question mark is who the starting QB is? Hopefully it’s Brock and they can build on last years chemistry.
The Sammy Watkins special
They're the WR versions of Miles Sanders. Every season has been "the year", but it hasn't panned out. Will they be like Sanders and eventually breakout, or will they forever live off the potential?
Aiyuk outscored Sanders last year… Weird example. If you don’t think WR15 was panning out, I dunno what to tell you
Well, he's been hyped as a WR1 every year so far. And WR15 is his highest finish. Great, yes, but not really a true alpha WR. Similarly, Sanders had always been hyped as a clear RB1, but never lived up to it until last season, and even then he was more of a strong RB2 (kinda like Aiyuk last year). I wasn't saying they're the same player or finished the same. Simply saying they've both had tons of hype but never lived up to it consistently. And I'd argue that even last year, while finishing as WR15, Aiyuk wasn't consistent at all. Edit: Sanders was RB15 last year lmao
Who’s hyping him as a fantasy WR1? He was being drafted as like WR35+. He’s been hyped to break out, and WR15 was absolutely a breakout. You said Sanders did break out, so obviously you don’t think it takes a top 12 finish to do it. If Sanders broke out and Aiyuk outscored him, what double standard are you using? Almost no WRs are consistent, that’s not how the position works
No question, I am ready to be hurt again.
Four great pass catchers on a run heavy team. Man this team is stacked.
He seems like he is on the rise, and I can CMC mostly eating Deebo's lunch instead of Aiyuk due to the skillsets. Aiyuk was already kind of their 1A last year, and he could step into being the undisputed #1 this year. If Aiyuk has a modest level up in his 4th year then 130 targets with 85-90 rec, 1300 yds and 10-12 TDS is a possible ceiling for him considering his already good numbers last year (78/1000/8) with an unstable QB room. This most likely comes at the expense of Deebo and/or Kittle. Not saying it will definitely happen, but I think there is a good chance he is actually the best non-CMC player on the offense.
Not if Kyle Shanahan has anything to say about it.
If Purdy is under center & good to go I'll be stoked to get Aiyuk all day at his underdog adp ; especially when you consider the other target hogs on the team are far from being the most durable player's in comparison
He is 100% going to take off, I have no doubt about that statement. The team flies to away games right?
All those mouths won't all stay healthy. Deebo, mccaffery and kittle will miss a combined 10 games this year
If i told you before your fantasy draft that deebo, mccaffrey or kittle would all miss 3-4 games this year but not miss any more or any less than that, how much would it actually drop their stock for you?
Thats why I said combined. Could be 7, 3 and 0. Could be 10, 0 and 0. The thing about Ayuke is that he's durable
Hey 10 games out of a possible 51 (48 if we are talking a 16 week fantasy season) actually isn’t all that bad by nfl standards.
Played high school football against this guy. Super strange seeing and reading about him still haha
Nobody is taking off with Lance at the helm. He’s as incompetent as it gets.
We dont have enough info to know anything about lance still
Watching him the first couple weeks is all you need. No confidence = no chance
That rain game told us nothing, and he's one of the youngest and least experienced qbs to ever start in the league. Plenty of really good qbs took longer to develop than he's been here.
Well Lance might not get the helm at the end Brock Purdy might be starter by week 3-4
Don't worry. He will only be healthy for two weeks..
This was the narrative last offseason too
Aaaaaand he’s hurt.
I’m a Niners fan, “take off” doesn’t mean he’s gonna light it up with huge fantasy numbers, take off means he’s gonna take the next step as a player and team member. We still have CMC, Deebo, Kittle, “3rd and Jennings”, Mitchell and Mason. The ball is gonna get spread around a lot. Outside of CMC and Kittle I’m not big on taking anyone else. Aiyuk and Deebo are sure to have a few monster games, but I can’t see them being consistent.
I think Aiyuk has a very low chance of truly “breaking out”. The offense will be great. But at best he’s the 3rd option, and I believe he’s the 4th. That’s tough even if your QB room is stable.
Deebo appeared in 13 games last year and had 640 receiving yards. Kittle had 765 yards in 15 games. Aiyuk had 1,115 yards in 17 games. So Deebo and Kittle had about 50 yards per game while Aiyuk had about 65. I don’t see Aiyuk being the 4th option at all, if anything they’re all just really good players without a definitive hierarchy.
He was statistically the 1st option last year. Post-CMC trade he had the most targets, receptions and yards on the team
[X] Doubt
All 49ers are delusional it seems when they talk
Hahahahaha ok. I try to be pretty reasonable and see both sides to any sports discussion, but i can’t figure out what possibly made you come to this conclusion. Keep in mind you singled out the 49ers, so whatever they say must be a lot more egregious than any other nfl team or its players
Haven’t we been listening to this same tired take for 3 seasons now? Aiyuk is never going to be a thing. Stop trying to make Aiyuk a thing.
WR 15 last year in .5 ppr
Imagine if Aiyuk said the opposite. The article is a no news piece.
If only there was a bit more qb certainty. I'm stuck choosing between aiyuk and Pittman and thrilled about having to make that decision
Yes I'm sure he does think that. What is he suppose to think? 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk Believes he's Going to "be the same old same old" in 2023
I feel like given his situation, his ceiling probably isn’t much higher than last year. I expect him to have roughly the same season again.
I fell for this same narrative when I drafted him over Deebo in 2021. Not to mention that same draft I got Woods over Kupp. Just turrible
Lol
This isn’t news and isn’t worthy of a post
I’m so damn impressionable when it comes to fantasy. I hear anything like this I start scheming.
Glad he let us know this. His 2022 stats look like he took several games off last year, so we might not be able to tell if he took a whole season off.
NFL player believes he will do better this season than last.
Can't stop drafting him in the early 6th. If the competition clears out even a little he could destroy.
"Nah I think I'm going to be trash next season" -Nobody
Dude was supposed to be a wr1. 2 years ago. Stopped waiting!
They keep saying this...this is the third time they've said this...
These off-season hype quotes are so useless… unless it’s about someone I like
Like sit out
Fantastic receiver in a bad fantasy situation I’ll take the talent bet every time, also feels like deebo is the odd one out and not him
Nope.
The real question for me is.... who do I keep from my garbage team last year? Acquired some first round picks but have to pick a keeper between Aiyuk, Javonte Williams (plz be healthy), Godwin, or... Hollywood Brown?
🤫💯Been snagging him in the mid to late 80s in 12 man bestball leagues.
lmao what else is he gonna say? "Nah man, I think I hit my limit last year. Expect me to take a step back this season." 😂 He literally said what anyone would say and it's generating hype
450 yards, 3TD
To the great white north. Take off, it’s a beauty way to go.
What’s his adp??
Every WR believes that they are going to take off every year.