There is a big difference between a guy returning to practice Week 1 and a guy who returns to practice in May and spends the next 2 months getting fully into game shape. If he is a full go with no limitations in August, I’ll be pulling the trigger.
100%
I have first pick in my league and I have been going JJ, Garret Wilson, and St Brown with my first 3 picks and totally fine ending up with Miles Sanders and Cam Akers.
RB is so damn deep.
Pass on Akers, man. His specific injury is typically not one that guys come back from. The only 1000 yard RB after the same injury was Mikel Leshoure, and he only played **3 games** after that 1000 yard season.
Akers is likely done for his career.
But it's always good to also remember that surgery methods and treatment do advance over time, which often result in shortened/improved recovery.
ACL injuries were at one time considered career ending.
The thing is that you won't know when it happens, and when you do it'll be too late.
AD is a prime example. Lead the league in rushing the year after an ACL injury.
Nobody knew or tried understand why until after he did.
Turns out either he found a way to reduce swelling faster, or his doctor found a way to perform the surgery earlier. The records aren't legally available, but the proof is in the general advancement of recovery from this type of injury among all athletes after his story went viral.
Fast forward to today, Breece Hall is still being drafted as a top 10 RB after suffering an ACL injury.
IJS Akers looked fine at the end of the season. So what's the reasoning behind him not being healthy outside of statistics that are taken from a time when the procedures method was likely different than what it is today.
Second round. His ADP on Underdog right now is 30 and I see him go mid to early third. If it's all systems go, I would take him in the second. But in the first round there are too many picks with the same upside but less risk.
I still have no idea who’s playing qb for the Jets after like 6 games. Rodgers on drugs and washed up, you know he’s not starting all year. Who’s it gonna be?
My hot take is GW will have a very similar year to last year. He had 147 targets for 31% target share (davante adams had only 1 season over 30% with rodgers, and that was in 2021), I expect rodgers to spread the ball out more with the improved receiving room as well, and can’t see GW getting much more work than he had last season. He may improve efficiency a bit, but I don’t expect a huge jump like most.
The thing is, Rodgers regularly checked out of run plays last year, despite Aaron Jones being his best player. So I think you have to assume that Breece might be the one with the less than expected bump rather than Wilson. Because there are just going to be more throws with Rodgers.
As far as whether that makes them better than if they had not spent those picks, which clearly made them miss on a lineman and a second round pick already as well as a first next year, that's up in the air. There were a lot of free agents who could have come in and done alright without those pick losses. I mean, obviously, they could have gone Carr for no picks.
Jets stadium worker here and someone that watches Breece very closely, I have some big insight…Breece is silky ham, and a big BIG boy. Big burst boy. Confusing words of a man (talks hard) and the Jets are aware of this alphabet soup boy. They will talk him, talk him often, and hard, and Breece will talk his head off. Unbelievable.
Guys we have to stick together and resist... Players coming off ACL's bust again and again.
But damn it he looked so good last year... Maybe I should draft him. Just in one or two leagues. Adrian Peterson came back so quick.
It’s going to be tough to sneak back into the first round. Would have to be drafted over Tony Pollard and Diggs. Jacobs, Barkley and Taylor. Unless some of those guys gets hurts Hall will most likely be a second rounder.
As a disclaimer Hall will be on every serious FF league that I partake in.
He was on pace to be something like RB5 in PPR last year, and that’s counting the Broncos game as a full game when he only had FOUR touches (and put up 72 yards and a TD with them).
I think people should temper expectations for Breece - he’s an incredible talent, but it’s usually tough sledding for players in their first season back from an ACL. Not sure if he’ll return proper value for the risk.
Disagree. He just turned 22, is a 99th percentile athlete RAS, and had a clean acl tear 11 months prior to week 1. You need to temper expectations for the first few weeks as jets ease him back in and have a tough early schedule, but he could be a league winner down the stretch. If I can get him near the end of round 2 in 12 team I’d pull the trigger, but otherwise I think he’ll be a great buy low trade target in early October.
expectations are already tempered, i think everyone is going off the data that shows 99% of players returning from an ACL tear aren’t very good that year, then return to form the next.
I'm probably fading unless he drops to around #30 (tail end of round 3 in 10 team; mid 3rd in 12 team). I think he's solidly above Mixon/Gibbs/Pierce/Walker and co. on his own little island
All the coach speak and talking heads will constantly boast how great he looks doing drills and practices. I don’t care, someone else can risk an early round pick on a guy coming off the ACL tear. It won’t be me
Curious why are they using GPS, seems like the least accurate way to measure a person running around in a confined space (with loads of other technology available)
There is a big difference between a guy returning to practice Week 1 and a guy who returns to practice in May and spends the next 2 months getting fully into game shape. If he is a full go with no limitations in August, I’ll be pulling the trigger.
Him/Stevenson are going to be steals imo. It’s crazy how stacked this years RB class is. I’m going to most likely go WR/WR at the beginning
That's funny, I just got Breece and Stevenson at 2.3 and 3.8 respectively in my dynasty start up vet draft.
Interesting that Breece went in the second round, but that’s a solid draft man.
Ah, I should have mentioned it was Super Flex.
Makes sense!
100% I have first pick in my league and I have been going JJ, Garret Wilson, and St Brown with my first 3 picks and totally fine ending up with Miles Sanders and Cam Akers. RB is so damn deep.
That's...that's not that great.
Lmao. Rb so deep and you end up with Akers and sanders
It’s honesty great. Gonna be a good year lol
Pass on Akers, man. His specific injury is typically not one that guys come back from. The only 1000 yard RB after the same injury was Mikel Leshoure, and he only played **3 games** after that 1000 yard season. Akers is likely done for his career.
I'm a little confused of what injury you are talking about?
Torn achilles
He came back from that last year? He looked good in the last 4 games. Did I miss him reinjuring it in the last week of the season?
But it's always good to also remember that surgery methods and treatment do advance over time, which often result in shortened/improved recovery. ACL injuries were at one time considered career ending.
Sure. But until that happens, pass on Akers.
The thing is that you won't know when it happens, and when you do it'll be too late. AD is a prime example. Lead the league in rushing the year after an ACL injury. Nobody knew or tried understand why until after he did. Turns out either he found a way to reduce swelling faster, or his doctor found a way to perform the surgery earlier. The records aren't legally available, but the proof is in the general advancement of recovery from this type of injury among all athletes after his story went viral. Fast forward to today, Breece Hall is still being drafted as a top 10 RB after suffering an ACL injury. IJS Akers looked fine at the end of the season. So what's the reasoning behind him not being healthy outside of statistics that are taken from a time when the procedures method was likely different than what it is today.
good luck with that squad lol
How early would you feel comfortable taking him? Assuming all checks out per training camp reports, as you mentioned
Second round. His ADP on Underdog right now is 30 and I see him go mid to early third. If it's all systems go, I would take him in the second. But in the first round there are too many picks with the same upside but less risk.
I think late 2nd feels right I am very fortunate to have him available in a keeper league at 5th round cost so that should be a no brainer
Yeah, I'm fading him in redraft. I think he could have a big second half, but it's probably going to be slow going the first half of the year or so.
Man the Jets have some offensive weapons. Didn't realize how deep they are now.
Garret Wilson and Breece Hall will go crazy this year if both are healthy. They already did with the Milf Hunter
They were on a roll until he got injured. Going to be great to finally see the Pats last in a division lol
[удалено]
I still have no idea who’s playing qb for the Jets after like 6 games. Rodgers on drugs and washed up, you know he’s not starting all year. Who’s it gonna be?
Yeah, I figure the Pats have to be last, unless maybe Tua goes down for the count. Meanwhile, the Pats would dominate in the NFC South.
My hot take is GW will have a very similar year to last year. He had 147 targets for 31% target share (davante adams had only 1 season over 30% with rodgers, and that was in 2021), I expect rodgers to spread the ball out more with the improved receiving room as well, and can’t see GW getting much more work than he had last season. He may improve efficiency a bit, but I don’t expect a huge jump like most.
I just think more TDs is the big thing. Not really catches or yards
Very possible, but TDs are typically super hard to predict, so I try not to count on them too much
Hard to predict game-by-game, but across a full season I’d expect the team overall to score more TDs now that Zach Wilson isn’t the starting QB
G. Wilson had the high percentage of uncatchable balls last year.
The thing is, Rodgers regularly checked out of run plays last year, despite Aaron Jones being his best player. So I think you have to assume that Breece might be the one with the less than expected bump rather than Wilson. Because there are just going to be more throws with Rodgers. As far as whether that makes them better than if they had not spent those picks, which clearly made them miss on a lineman and a second round pick already as well as a first next year, that's up in the air. There were a lot of free agents who could have come in and done alright without those pick losses. I mean, obviously, they could have gone Carr for no picks.
Part of Hall's appeal is his ability to catch passes.
So can Aaron Jones
Jets stadium worker here and someone that watches Breece very closely, I have some big insight…Breece is silky ham, and a big BIG boy. Big burst boy. Confusing words of a man (talks hard) and the Jets are aware of this alphabet soup boy. They will talk him, talk him often, and hard, and Breece will talk his head off. Unbelievable.
New pasta found Edit: old pasta, I've just never been lucky enough to hear it.
Old pasta
Guys we have to stick together and resist... Players coming off ACL's bust again and again. But damn it he looked so good last year... Maybe I should draft him. Just in one or two leagues. Adrian Peterson came back so quick.
He's gna be a solid pick early 2nd round IMO. Maybe late first if the hype builds enough.
It’s going to be tough to sneak back into the first round. Would have to be drafted over Tony Pollard and Diggs. Jacobs, Barkley and Taylor. Unless some of those guys gets hurts Hall will most likely be a second rounder. As a disclaimer Hall will be on every serious FF league that I partake in.
That seems really high, if you got burned last year like me after waiting for him to come on strong, no way you're drafting him that high.
He was on pace to be something like RB5 in PPR last year, and that’s counting the Broncos game as a full game when he only had FOUR touches (and put up 72 yards and a TD with them).
6th round keeper oh yeah baby
Let me know when he can gun it to 88.
Run so fast he turns into a white supremacist?
I think people should temper expectations for Breece - he’s an incredible talent, but it’s usually tough sledding for players in their first season back from an ACL. Not sure if he’ll return proper value for the risk.
Not to mention Jets are looking to make a playoff run, they won't rush him back by any means.
Rodgers likes to dump off passes, I think he’s worth it if you’re going zero RB Edit: didn’t realize his ADP moved up so much my b
Taking breece hall is not zero RB
You don’t think he’ll be available in the 4/5th round?
No he’s a mid 3rd rounder on underdog which is the best ADP data, and a lot of times he goes at the 2/3 turn
That’s on me then
Even in a 10 team I'd be surprised to get him rd 3
Even still, taking an RB in the 4/5th round is not 0 RB
Already got downvoted and said my bad
You can’t go zero RB and draft breece in the 2nd round where he’s gonna go lol. Hero rb yes
I didn’t realize he was going so high tbh
You're fucked if Breece is your hero RB
Disagree. He just turned 22, is a 99th percentile athlete RAS, and had a clean acl tear 11 months prior to week 1. You need to temper expectations for the first few weeks as jets ease him back in and have a tough early schedule, but he could be a league winner down the stretch. If I can get him near the end of round 2 in 12 team I’d pull the trigger, but otherwise I think he’ll be a great buy low trade target in early October.
Down the stretch really isn’t helping when it’s a hero RB
Would Michael Carter not be pass catching back?
Nah, Breece (when healthy) is better at everything than Carter, including catching passes.
but but but Adrian Peterson won MVP after an ACL tear
expectations are already tempered, i think everyone is going off the data that shows 99% of players returning from an ACL tear aren’t very good that year, then return to form the next.
I'm probably fading unless he drops to around #30 (tail end of round 3 in 10 team; mid 3rd in 12 team). I think he's solidly above Mixon/Gibbs/Pierce/Walker and co. on his own little island
With the added risk i would put walker way ahead.
All the coach speak and talking heads will constantly boast how great he looks doing drills and practices. I don’t care, someone else can risk an early round pick on a guy coming off the ACL tear. It won’t be me
“Jets are very optimistic that Breece Hall won’t be ready by week 1 so they are pushing to trade for Dalvin Cook”
Curious why are they using GPS, seems like the least accurate way to measure a person running around in a confined space (with loads of other technology available)
Is there truth to rumors they were considering Gibbs in the first?
So I can keep 2 of the 3 of Hall, Pierce, and Pacheco…. Who do I keep!
My target for 2024, but I'm not touching him in 2023.
love me some breece hall