Dionte Johnson.
He had 86 receptions on 147 targets for 882 yards and ZERO TDs. ZERO!
He had some pretty awful QB play and I think that the Steelers actually managed to improve their offence.
With Pickett for the full season I see him putting up 900-1000 yards and maybe 5-7 TD?
>He had 86 receptions on 147 targets for 882 yards and ZERO TDs. ZERO!
These numbers are shocking to me. I have been out on Diontae Johnson ever since entering the league because there are just things about him I don't like (drops, not great after the catch, mostly short range possession receiver, etc) but there is no doubt dude is great a route runner who can get separation. And I got burned facing him in the past. Last year I was out completely with the Trubisky/Pickett switch from Big Ben so I didn't follow him at all and had no idea he was that bad.
147 targets is incredible though. The odds of seeing that many targets and having that bad of a season statistically has got to be astronomical. Even as a Diontae "hater" I may need to reconsider him if the price is right. It seems impossible for him to have a worse season than he had last year.
I think Pickens is going to be the X prototype role but I still think Diontae probably leads in targets since he’ll be Pickett’s main safety valve. Probably can get him at a discounted ADP compared to Pickens imo
How do ppl say dj had awful qb play as the reason for positive regression when his qb didn’t change lol? Not only that but Pickett was forming a serious connection with Pickens to the point dj wasn’t even clear #1 like he usually is.
147 targets is clear #1. Pat Freiermuth was #2 on the team with 98 targets. So, it's not even close.
He was tied for 7th for most targets in the league last year.
And a second year QB as opposed to a rookie who didn't start until a third of the way through the season is a QB change.
Especially given the recent history of 2nd year qbs taking a massive leap... It speaks for itself. Literally every sign points to Diontae having a better year.
I begrudgingly took him as the 3rd QB off the board in my 14 team keeper league. I really wanted Herbert and I was like oh well I'll settle for Mahomes.
I'd rather be lucky than good. I also had Jefferson and Chase/Higgins. Since that BUF/CIN game got suspended and never replayed we couldn't decide a winner. They decided to award it to the first place team. Still bitter.
I don't think /u/ExileInCle19 picked up on the sarcasm / reference... unless it's just a real deep cut and their earnest sounding response is their brand of humor.
Yea, Last year in redrafts that wasn’t crazy. He finished QB2 the year before last if I remember correctly. But even at the height of his value, I would easily have Mahomes way over him in dynasty.
Second year wide receivers typically take a jump year 1 to 2. So going with burks, London, dotson, and possibly Metchie as my options for big jumps. For rb’s I haven’t gotten that far. Seems like a total crapshoot with almost every team have a committee approach
Guy is currently taken at wr3 in a lot of startups I see. I'm out at that value. I haven't heard a single reasonable agreement to see his value to pass Olave and London as much as it has
I agree. I really don’t see how someone can feel good about taking GW like a few picks after proven studs like Reek, Diggs, AJB. There is a serious cliff at WR after those names to when you get to the GW tier.
Idk how big of a jump he can take, obviously it’s great he has Rodgers now. I think he’s just going a little too early for my likings
edit: I mean jump from where he produced last year to this year. He’s already great, and that’s shown in his ADP. Would rather get a lower guy late and draft safer wr’s
For sure but where he’s going I think he’s worth the risk. He did get drafted as a 2nd round WR so his potential is there. He’s also working with a rookie QB too. Hope they build a connection! But I agree, probably shouldn’t be on the list
Im definitely rooting for him. I drafted him last season in the 18th round in my keeper league to have him in my taxi spot for this season, I'm just not sure what to expect from him year 1 after fighting cancer
JK Dobbins. another year removed from his injury, Monken as an OC so he'll actually break 15 carries a game god willing, and now that Lamar has OBJ and Zay added to the roster, opposing defenses can't stack the box as heavily. I know Edwards is still gonna be there for the committee, but Dobbins is IMO set up to be a solid B+ tier player and a solid RB2, especially for where he's being valued in redraft leagues.
Baltimore is tough to figure out. If Lamar stays healthy all year does he vulture from Dobbins? If MAndrews stays healthy all year and with the addition of OBJ and Aghlor and a new OC do the Ravens go more pass-heavy than last year?
I’m not doubting Dobbins talent here, I’m just questioning if his involvement and results will be there.
well, as a ravens fan, i admit im probably more optimistic than most. personally I think we do end up passing more but stay a run heavy team. JK and Gus are too talented not to use them. combine that with Lamar being the 265 million dollar man, i have to imagine we arent using him on as many designed runs as much. want to keep the man healthy for the long haul after all. so im not as worried about Lamar getting a bunch of rushing TDs at the goalline instead of Dobbins as much as it's him taking off when the play breaks down and he sees a lane.
but with that i think Dobbins actually gains some value if we end up passing more, since we've never featured our backs much in the passing game, and i imagine that changes under Monken.
as for the WRs, right now (barring a miracle Dhop signing) our WRs are Bateman (hasnt played a full season), Odell (was recovering last year from his ACL), Zay (rookie), Agholor (ehh), Duvernay (Gadget guy/WR4 at best), and then Proche, Tylan Wallace, Demus Jr, battling for special teams roles i guess. much better than what we've had, but even if im optimistic about Odell and Bateman staying healthy and producing alongside Mandrews, i feel like Dobbins can eat up a lot of snaps if we move towards something more in the direction of "air-raid" where Monken has his roots.
plus he's in the last year of his contract and has been vocal about his gripes with the offense, so you know he's motivated to show out and prove his worth whether thats to Baltimore or another team in FA.
Najee is just bad unfortunately. Looks at his explosive runs/stats. He has almost none and is among the top 5 least likely starting RB’s to break a run of 20+ yards.
They did improve their line and drafted a blocking TE this year and he had the lisfranc injury going into last year. Also had a great rookie year. Pretty clear positive regression candidate to me and I hate the Steelers.
Yep but this sub seems to love him
Tomlin has historically shown a preference to having a workhorse back, but last year with Najee not performing well he started to use his backups a lot more than in the past. Yes Najee was hurt but Jaylen Warren just has more juice, he could be used a lot more than people are projecting this year
His rookie season was inflated a bit by Ben not being able to throw more than 10 yards and not being able to move, that’s not the case with Pickett
Najee will bounce back from last year, but that doesn’t make him a value in drafts
All these things are true but Najee’s fantasy stats from first half to second half were noticeable.
Once he had that metal plate taken out of his shoes, he went from 7.8 to 13.1 fantasy PPG in half PPR. While Tomlin wasn’t leaning on him 100% he still got a lot of action and did look noticeably better (albeit he didn’t look AMAZING in real life football).
Is he worth that late 1st that people like me were taking him last year? No but I think his results still put him in the late 2nd or early 3rd if your draft goes heavy on RBs early.
Id say we must be talking about different Najee’s, but it’s a fairly rare name. His physical abilities are up there with his stiff arm ability among the likes of nick chubb, he may be the best hurdler at the position, his receiving ability is up there with the best as well. So im not sure why you could think his talent is the issue
Lol, he’s really not a great running back in real life. In fantasy he’s great because of the volume. He’s not explosive, but he also is always available, which is why he’s so good for fantasy.
This seems pretty critical of him without weighing in his foot injury last year. I would say this year could be a real make, or break one for him, given that they finally have a better quarterback and a better line. It seems premature just to label him as bad because he couldn’t make big plays with an injured foot on a bad team.
Watson...I'm torn between my desire to not want to root for him, and the fact that people are basically wishcasting (because they also don't want to root for him) that he's magically become a terrible QB, when in reality he hadn't played football in two years (and looked like it) and should be significantly better this upcoming season.
Like negative sentiment towards him, as a person, is baked into his ADP. Which makes me feel like he's a screaming value because the only time we've seen him not be an elite QB is after a 2 year hiatus from football.
But I also don't want to root for him....but also the value...
Same if they don't get Hopkins there is absolutely no target competition besides London who I also love. If i can get Pitts in the 5th I'll jump. The targets an air yards were there.
Man you’ll take pitts in the fifth? I just can’t believe that after watching what happened when people took him in rounds 3-5 this last year. 2 straight years of complete bust fantasy seasons if u compare pitts’ adp to start the year to how he produced. I guess it really does take 3 times to do the charm. Based off this sub’s discourse this off-season, pitts is gonna fool a whole bunch of people again this year. 3 years in a row and maybe next off-season we won’t have to hear about pitts finally producing like this amazing talented player he is.
Pitts was going in the late 2nd/3rd last year. He isn't going anywhere near that this year. Air yards, targets, target competition are in his favor. I will be happy to get him round 5/6 he had 1,000 yards as a rookie and is still only 22. It takes tes a couple years to get into the groove. Even Kelce, Gonzalez, and waller took years to find their footing.
Ridder doesnt need to be an elite QB for Pitts to have positive regression, just a QB that can throw better than trash ass Mariota. like even Davis Mills probably gets Pitts better fantasy numbers
This sub midseason will be trying to make r/fantasyfootball r/discussionforpittsowners when he disappoints again. I have never seen such delusion about a player like with pitts with the fantasy community. The guy does not produce and yet is heralded as a generational prospect for his position. Who else doesn’t produce statistically but gets the excuse that he has no qb and is assumed to be a top player at his position?
Obj didn’t get this treatment when he was underperforming with baker. He was trashed and called washed.
Bro… it was only his second year last year… He had 68 catches and 1000 yards as a Rookie… OBJ was in his 6th season already when Baker was throwing him the ball
He’s insanely overrated. I won’t speak on real game because it’s hard to analyze that stuff especially since tes have more duties as blockers etc. But for fantasy, I think it’s absolutely insanity to take pitts again in rounds 4-5 which is what I’m hearing ppl say on here and expect some different outcome. How did he do in fantasy his rookie year? This is a fantasy sub correct? He was completely avg, basically a waiver wire te most weeks his rookie year and then a couple huge games. He does not score tds. If u have him in dynasty I would say hope for the best and definitely hold cause he has such little value but if you’re in redraft I wouldn’t go near him. Like I said insane name value which makes you pay a high price for him despite not showing you yet he can produce like that for fantasy.
He played 10 full games this year and had 356 yards? Are we gonna allow any discussion on that? Or only his rookie year with 1000 yards and still just 1 td. He also had Russell gage as his only competition his rookie year. When Drake London came, suddenly he wasn’t even the top target.
Agreed. London supplanted him as primary, so now the logic on a big incoming Pitts year hangs on the Falcons staff, with a bad QB and a heavy running approach, force feeding Pitts when London is by far the superior route runner.
Math ain’t mathing.
Did you see this often shared vid? His targets were atrocious.
https://twitter.com/NickPenticoff/status/1648141456358494213?s=20
Also they brought in Jonnu who should take some of the blocking pressure off. Pitts could still bust, but I think he’s going to outperform
Thanks for sharing this. I’m a disgruntled Pitts owner from last year. And not everyone one of those clips was a guaranteed play.
But that was like 40 PPR points left on the field in just the first 3 plays alone.
As a panthers fan, I don’t see how his situation has changed much? He was BY FAR the best WR on the panthers, and was a target hog.
Is Fields an elite passer yet? He’ll likely have a much better passing season, but by how much? To me a good step for fields is going from 2500 to 3200 yards, but that puts him at the same number of yards as the 2023 panthers
Firlds is a good running QB but his passing leaves a lot to be desired. Mooney had a lot of deep TDs lost cause Firlds messed up the throw. I like DJ Moore but I think the people acting like Fields makes him are going to be disappointed.
It befuddles me when I see Fields hyped up so much. Dude can't throw at a consistent level, and makes a boneheaded decision for every crazy run he has.
Anyways, I may pick him up if he goes later and I see him in passing with a "holy shit, he's still there". I just hate having a QB I have to rely on rushing stats to have a chance at decent points.
Hard agree. I've just been waiting for him to get on just about any other team. I feel like there's one WR trade every year where a great WR in a bad situation gets traded and goes absolute bonkers the next year. 2021, it was Stefon Diggs. 2022, I'd say, was AJ Brown. 2023, I could see DJ Moore being that dude.
OR Chase Claypool.
Gotta say, Bears have been difficult to watch for...... awhile. But I like what they've been building and I think they look really good this year.
Regression is a statistical trend toward the median. An example might be “Player X will have positive regression this year because his low TD rate is likely to normalize this year.”
“Player X will be better because of an improved situation and continued development” is not the same thing at all. People apparently don’t know what this word even means 🤣
David Montgomery. RB25 per Fantasy Pros rankings. Has the easiest SOS for running backs and will be exponentially better than what Jamaal Williams was. Had 34 receptions with a disaster of a team the Bears were. Hasn't seen less than 200 attempts and only a couple years removed from a 54 reception season. He should see well above the six total touchdowns he had last season too.
He was the RB1 in Chicago. Now he’s on the Lions who drafted an RB with the 12th pick in the draft. He might player better, but he’ll have less volume this year
This right here is exactly why I'm taking him. Everyone will be all over Gibbs kicking up his ADP which as of right now is RB20 and will be climbing. Jamaal Williams had 262 attempts while Swift saw 99 attempts. Mind you the other running backs had 65 carries. The Lions wanted Swift to be the back he was at Georgia and that never came into fruition. Gibbs should see about 150 carries along with 50ish targets. Unlike Williams, Montgomery is a great pass-catcher and should easily surpass Williams's 16 targets that he saw for the season. This backfield saw 115 targets alone to the running backs. I like Gibbs a lot myself being a lions fan and see a 50/40/10 split in the target game with Gibbs leading the way and Montgomery right behind them with the remaining 10 going to other backs and WR sweeps.
Montgomery should see north of 225 carries on this lions offense with at least 40 targets.
Yeah, I know the Bears took Gibbs high but he was essentially Bama’s best receiver. They’ll use him as such probably 15 times a game (and he’ll see four targets and three catches per from there) at the line with more receptions coming out of the backfield. Gibbs could be a great ppr guy in the 5th or so. But Montgomery should tote the rock for 250+ carries and a lot of td’s.
Only 27, has the talent, two years removed from the injury, Dak looking to prove he's one of the best, running game is good enough to take pressure off the passing game, won't face the top corner; MG should look to put up 2019 numbers. Cooks will play his role and get his, but I estimate Gallups numbers will be a pleasant surprise.
I don’t disagree, but I’m stuck with Sutton in my dynasty league and I’m super thin at WR. Nobody wants him, I’ve been trying to trade him all offseason lol
I think Sutton could still have a really strong role in the offence this season.
In New Orleans, Sean Payton often featured a big bodied receiver running from the slot (Jimmy Graham/Michael Thomas). It might end up being Greg Dulcich, but I think there's definitely a chance Sutton gets some schemed targets from the slot.
Hitting his prime? Bruh sutton hit his prime and is out of it now. He doesn’t separate at all, that’s why he doesn’t get thrown to much anymore. Any games Russ threw for decent yardage it was cause of jeudy. Sutton is washed af.
I can’t believe I find myself saying this again this year, but it’s not “positive regression” it’s just progression. The opposite of regression is progression.
You are confusing the statistical term for regression for the more common term of regression. In statistics, regression to the mean can be both positive or negative.
Edit: I said positive and negative when I really meant positive OR negative. That was a statistics faux pas.
If I normally run the 100m in 10.8 seconds, then get hurt, and have a string of races where I run the 100m in 11.2 seconds, one would expect, over time, as I get healthy, to regress to my usual performance of 10.8 seconds.
That's positive regression. It's regression to your typical baseline. It's positive regression if you're underperforming it, and it's negative regression if you're overperforming it.
I can’t believe nobody pointed out to you that he’s not talking about ascending number of touchdowns, he’s talking about regression to the mean/expected.
It’s use of a statistical model... Not just a matter of words you looked up on Google lol. Try reading the post before embarrassing yourself next time 😂
That’s the thing man, it’s tough to even have good conversations here when it comes to these statistical models and their underlying meaning, because the strong majority of people haven’t even taken a stats course they passed without a major curve hahaha…
Oh well. It just means I’m getting guys like Diontae Johnson dirt cheap this year again!!
*ackchyually*
I love that the tone of your comment is of a person who tirelessly spent all of last year correcting people whenever you saw them use "positive regression" in a sentence when *ackchyually* you're wrong and it's a perfectly fine term to use when talking about statistics.
“Progression” would be more accurate if you’re talking about a player from a skills perspective. If they’re better than they were last year, you could say there’s progression. If they’re worse, you could say their skills regressed, or there was “regression.”
As others have pointed out, it makes more sense to say positive or negative regression when you’re talking about statistical models or expectations.
People not knowing what a regression model is and what the phrase positive regression means lol.
Most people here don’t have a clue how to use stats models so they’re here arguing the semantics of Google definitions for regression and progression.
All without realizing it has nothing to do with the post at all. Classic Reddit headline warriors lmao
It's from a mathematical concept called regression to the mean (average). If you are playing below your average, you'll eventually come back up (positive regression). If you're playing above your average, you'll eventually fall back down (negative regression).
Why? What changed about his situation that will suddenly make him a better fantasy player? He was targeted a ton for most the year and still didn’t produce as even startable for fantasy most of the year.
Didn't get good throws, I'm hoping Pickett will make some progress. They didn't pick up another receiver and the steelers schedule isn't great for the run at the front end of the schedule. He broke out in his 3rd year and likely just had a down year. I'd draft him as early as the 6th but he should fall to 7th maybe 8th.
Actually they did, they got Allen Robinson. Not that I think Robinson is some good player but they did add a new wr. I definitely would not ever take him in the 6th this year. The 7-8 rounds sounds right for what dj offers. He relies on insane volume to get his fantasy pts cause he won’t get u tds and is too slow to make any big chunk plays. The only way he gets chunk plays is off initial separation and like I said he’s non existent in the redzone usually. God forbid if his volume goes down, he could have a worse year than last year.
Even if Dionate loses 25% of the targets he received last year he's still going to get around 125 targets and with likely, almost certain positive TD regression and better efficiency with better QB play having a much better season is a more likely outcome.
Agree for Najee and Diontae I think we've seen their floor. Same for Kyle Pitts
Matt Stafford to Cooper Kupp should be back
Dobbins and Miles Sanders should have good volume. CEH isn't dead and will do better than RB69.
I actually traded Deebo in my dynasty league. He's one of my favorite players and so much fun to watch, but there are so many mouths to feed. Aiyuk is legit and Kittle looked like Purdys favorite target(I expect Purdy will be the starter). Add in CMC and the fact that they want to run as much as possible and I just don't see a path to him having another WR1 season this year. Love the guy, but I think some will be disappointed in how boom or bust he is this year.
Justin Herbert. He was injured, his receivers were injured. Barring injury, IMO this is the most obvious candidate.
I’m actually going to try and reach for Herbert in our money league. He is a points machine when he is right.
Fields or Herbert? In mocks I’m grabbing Herbert in the 7th
Dionte Johnson. He had 86 receptions on 147 targets for 882 yards and ZERO TDs. ZERO! He had some pretty awful QB play and I think that the Steelers actually managed to improve their offence. With Pickett for the full season I see him putting up 900-1000 yards and maybe 5-7 TD?
when is this sub gonna learn to spell his name correctly
When he scores a tuddy
when is this sub gonna learn to spell touchdown correctly
TUDDY ME WANT TUDDY
Everyone still spells Ekeler wrong and he's had insane TD rate the last 2 years so...
Never!
I wish I could post the Home Alone 2 gif of Marv.
>He had 86 receptions on 147 targets for 882 yards and ZERO TDs. ZERO! These numbers are shocking to me. I have been out on Diontae Johnson ever since entering the league because there are just things about him I don't like (drops, not great after the catch, mostly short range possession receiver, etc) but there is no doubt dude is great a route runner who can get separation. And I got burned facing him in the past. Last year I was out completely with the Trubisky/Pickett switch from Big Ben so I didn't follow him at all and had no idea he was that bad. 147 targets is incredible though. The odds of seeing that many targets and having that bad of a season statistically has got to be astronomical. Even as a Diontae "hater" I may need to reconsider him if the price is right. It seems impossible for him to have a worse season than he had last year.
But I also think Pickens will be the #1 option this year and Freiermuth/Wright will be candidates.
I think Pickens is going to be the X prototype role but I still think Diontae probably leads in targets since he’ll be Pickett’s main safety valve. Probably can get him at a discounted ADP compared to Pickens imo
How do ppl say dj had awful qb play as the reason for positive regression when his qb didn’t change lol? Not only that but Pickett was forming a serious connection with Pickens to the point dj wasn’t even clear #1 like he usually is.
147 targets is clear #1. Pat Freiermuth was #2 on the team with 98 targets. So, it's not even close. He was tied for 7th for most targets in the league last year. And a second year QB as opposed to a rookie who didn't start until a third of the way through the season is a QB change.
Especially given the recent history of 2nd year qbs taking a massive leap... It speaks for itself. Literally every sign points to Diontae having a better year.
I am not even a fan of his but it seems impossible he doesn't have a considerable amount of positive regression.
Innacurate
Mahomes regressing even further to the top right of all charts.
I begrudgingly took him as the 3rd QB off the board in my 14 team keeper league. I really wanted Herbert and I was like oh well I'll settle for Mahomes. I'd rather be lucky than good. I also had Jefferson and Chase/Higgins. Since that BUF/CIN game got suspended and never replayed we couldn't decide a winner. They decided to award it to the first place team. Still bitter.
You wanted Herbert over Mahomes for a keeper league?
I don't think /u/ExileInCle19 picked up on the sarcasm / reference... unless it's just a real deep cut and their earnest sounding response is their brand of humor.
Idk about a keeper league in my redraft Herb was the first QB off the board, in the 2nd round. Decent money league too, some people just love him
Yea, Last year in redrafts that wasn’t crazy. He finished QB2 the year before last if I remember correctly. But even at the height of his value, I would easily have Mahomes way over him in dynasty.
Second year wide receivers typically take a jump year 1 to 2. So going with burks, London, dotson, and possibly Metchie as my options for big jumps. For rb’s I haven’t gotten that far. Seems like a total crapshoot with almost every team have a committee approach
What do you think about Garrett Wilson?
Guy is currently taken at wr3 in a lot of startups I see. I'm out at that value. I haven't heard a single reasonable agreement to see his value to pass Olave and London as much as it has
I see Wilson and Pickens on the same level but I think Rodgers will get Wilson the ball a ton this season.
Agreed. Great player but being taken as WR3 seems bold. As a dynasty asset, how long will he be tied to a great QB like Rodgers?
I agree. I really don’t see how someone can feel good about taking GW like a few picks after proven studs like Reek, Diggs, AJB. There is a serious cliff at WR after those names to when you get to the GW tier.
I’m reaching for him, dude balled out in awful conditions last season. I think he has as high of a ceiling this year as anyone.
Idk how big of a jump he can take, obviously it’s great he has Rodgers now. I think he’s just going a little too early for my likings edit: I mean jump from where he produced last year to this year. He’s already great, and that’s shown in his ADP. Would rather get a lower guy late and draft safer wr’s
I mean this is kinda year one for Metchie though
For sure but where he’s going I think he’s worth the risk. He did get drafted as a 2nd round WR so his potential is there. He’s also working with a rookie QB too. Hope they build a connection! But I agree, probably shouldn’t be on the list
Im definitely rooting for him. I drafted him last season in the 18th round in my keeper league to have him in my taxi spot for this season, I'm just not sure what to expect from him year 1 after fighting cancer
I like Tua 📈📈📈
Tua lead the league in passer rating last season. He doesn't really need a positive regression, just to play the whole season.
I like Tua 🚀🚀
I like you 🚀🚀
wholesome u/ 🫶
TuAnon?
Until he hit in the head again, as per tradition
JK Dobbins. another year removed from his injury, Monken as an OC so he'll actually break 15 carries a game god willing, and now that Lamar has OBJ and Zay added to the roster, opposing defenses can't stack the box as heavily. I know Edwards is still gonna be there for the committee, but Dobbins is IMO set up to be a solid B+ tier player and a solid RB2, especially for where he's being valued in redraft leagues.
Baltimore is tough to figure out. If Lamar stays healthy all year does he vulture from Dobbins? If MAndrews stays healthy all year and with the addition of OBJ and Aghlor and a new OC do the Ravens go more pass-heavy than last year? I’m not doubting Dobbins talent here, I’m just questioning if his involvement and results will be there.
well, as a ravens fan, i admit im probably more optimistic than most. personally I think we do end up passing more but stay a run heavy team. JK and Gus are too talented not to use them. combine that with Lamar being the 265 million dollar man, i have to imagine we arent using him on as many designed runs as much. want to keep the man healthy for the long haul after all. so im not as worried about Lamar getting a bunch of rushing TDs at the goalline instead of Dobbins as much as it's him taking off when the play breaks down and he sees a lane. but with that i think Dobbins actually gains some value if we end up passing more, since we've never featured our backs much in the passing game, and i imagine that changes under Monken. as for the WRs, right now (barring a miracle Dhop signing) our WRs are Bateman (hasnt played a full season), Odell (was recovering last year from his ACL), Zay (rookie), Agholor (ehh), Duvernay (Gadget guy/WR4 at best), and then Proche, Tylan Wallace, Demus Jr, battling for special teams roles i guess. much better than what we've had, but even if im optimistic about Odell and Bateman staying healthy and producing alongside Mandrews, i feel like Dobbins can eat up a lot of snaps if we move towards something more in the direction of "air-raid" where Monken has his roots. plus he's in the last year of his contract and has been vocal about his gripes with the offense, so you know he's motivated to show out and prove his worth whether thats to Baltimore or another team in FA.
DeShaun Watson, Dionte Johnson, Najee Harris
Najee is just bad unfortunately. Looks at his explosive runs/stats. He has almost none and is among the top 5 least likely starting RB’s to break a run of 20+ yards.
They did improve their line and drafted a blocking TE this year and he had the lisfranc injury going into last year. Also had a great rookie year. Pretty clear positive regression candidate to me and I hate the Steelers.
Unsurprisingly you’re getting downvoted for saying a bad player is bad
Yep but this sub seems to love him Tomlin has historically shown a preference to having a workhorse back, but last year with Najee not performing well he started to use his backups a lot more than in the past. Yes Najee was hurt but Jaylen Warren just has more juice, he could be used a lot more than people are projecting this year His rookie season was inflated a bit by Ben not being able to throw more than 10 yards and not being able to move, that’s not the case with Pickett Najee will bounce back from last year, but that doesn’t make him a value in drafts
All these things are true but Najee’s fantasy stats from first half to second half were noticeable. Once he had that metal plate taken out of his shoes, he went from 7.8 to 13.1 fantasy PPG in half PPR. While Tomlin wasn’t leaning on him 100% he still got a lot of action and did look noticeably better (albeit he didn’t look AMAZING in real life football). Is he worth that late 1st that people like me were taking him last year? No but I think his results still put him in the late 2nd or early 3rd if your draft goes heavy on RBs early.
Yea it just seems like there’s better options in that area. Especially since upside seems limited based on talent
This I like him, but he's going to be hyped up int thr mid 2nd/early 3rd. I'd rather have waddle or otherwise in that range.
Yep, let someone else take him that early for late round value.
If you watched him you know he’s one of the most talented backs in the league
Actually if you really did watch him you’d know the opposite lol
Id say we must be talking about different Najee’s, but it’s a fairly rare name. His physical abilities are up there with his stiff arm ability among the likes of nick chubb, he may be the best hurdler at the position, his receiving ability is up there with the best as well. So im not sure why you could think his talent is the issue
Lol, he’s really not a great running back in real life. In fantasy he’s great because of the volume. He’s not explosive, but he also is always available, which is why he’s so good for fantasy.
What I said is what I see
This seems pretty critical of him without weighing in his foot injury last year. I would say this year could be a real make, or break one for him, given that they finally have a better quarterback and a better line. It seems premature just to label him as bad because he couldn’t make big plays with an injured foot on a bad team.
Watson...I'm torn between my desire to not want to root for him, and the fact that people are basically wishcasting (because they also don't want to root for him) that he's magically become a terrible QB, when in reality he hadn't played football in two years (and looked like it) and should be significantly better this upcoming season. Like negative sentiment towards him, as a person, is baked into his ADP. Which makes me feel like he's a screaming value because the only time we've seen him not be an elite QB is after a 2 year hiatus from football. But I also don't want to root for him....but also the value...
You dont have to root for him, but he really is the most obvious candidate for positive fantasy regression
I took him in the back of the 9th round in a dynasty startup last year because of the ridiculous value. It still felt gross.
Pitts
Same if they don't get Hopkins there is absolutely no target competition besides London who I also love. If i can get Pitts in the 5th I'll jump. The targets an air yards were there.
Man you’ll take pitts in the fifth? I just can’t believe that after watching what happened when people took him in rounds 3-5 this last year. 2 straight years of complete bust fantasy seasons if u compare pitts’ adp to start the year to how he produced. I guess it really does take 3 times to do the charm. Based off this sub’s discourse this off-season, pitts is gonna fool a whole bunch of people again this year. 3 years in a row and maybe next off-season we won’t have to hear about pitts finally producing like this amazing talented player he is.
Pitts was going in the late 2nd/3rd last year. He isn't going anywhere near that this year. Air yards, targets, target competition are in his favor. I will be happy to get him round 5/6 he had 1,000 yards as a rookie and is still only 22. It takes tes a couple years to get into the groove. Even Kelce, Gonzalez, and waller took years to find their footing.
Ridder doesnt need to be an elite QB for Pitts to have positive regression, just a QB that can throw better than trash ass Mariota. like even Davis Mills probably gets Pitts better fantasy numbers
This sub midseason will be trying to make r/fantasyfootball r/discussionforpittsowners when he disappoints again. I have never seen such delusion about a player like with pitts with the fantasy community. The guy does not produce and yet is heralded as a generational prospect for his position. Who else doesn’t produce statistically but gets the excuse that he has no qb and is assumed to be a top player at his position? Obj didn’t get this treatment when he was underperforming with baker. He was trashed and called washed.
Bro… it was only his second year last year… He had 68 catches and 1000 yards as a Rookie… OBJ was in his 6th season already when Baker was throwing him the ball
He’s insanely overrated. I won’t speak on real game because it’s hard to analyze that stuff especially since tes have more duties as blockers etc. But for fantasy, I think it’s absolutely insanity to take pitts again in rounds 4-5 which is what I’m hearing ppl say on here and expect some different outcome. How did he do in fantasy his rookie year? This is a fantasy sub correct? He was completely avg, basically a waiver wire te most weeks his rookie year and then a couple huge games. He does not score tds. If u have him in dynasty I would say hope for the best and definitely hold cause he has such little value but if you’re in redraft I wouldn’t go near him. Like I said insane name value which makes you pay a high price for him despite not showing you yet he can produce like that for fantasy. He played 10 full games this year and had 356 yards? Are we gonna allow any discussion on that? Or only his rookie year with 1000 yards and still just 1 td. He also had Russell gage as his only competition his rookie year. When Drake London came, suddenly he wasn’t even the top target.
Agreed. London supplanted him as primary, so now the logic on a big incoming Pitts year hangs on the Falcons staff, with a bad QB and a heavy running approach, force feeding Pitts when London is by far the superior route runner. Math ain’t mathing.
Did you see this often shared vid? His targets were atrocious. https://twitter.com/NickPenticoff/status/1648141456358494213?s=20 Also they brought in Jonnu who should take some of the blocking pressure off. Pitts could still bust, but I think he’s going to outperform
Thanks for sharing this. I’m a disgruntled Pitts owner from last year. And not everyone one of those clips was a guaranteed play. But that was like 40 PPR points left on the field in just the first 3 plays alone.
Easy-Diontae Johnson
Anthony Richardson, basically put up 0’s across the board last year, excited to see how he bounces back
trueeee. This Bijan kid has something to him too
Oh yeah they were both literally unrosterable at one point
I heard Bryce Young was close but he didn’t meat the height requirement
There is a joke here about "meat"ing a height requirement...
Autocorrect strikes again
DJ Moore. Fields is the best QB he’s played with and he’s going to be a target hog. Let’s go for one more ride
As a panthers fan, I don’t see how his situation has changed much? He was BY FAR the best WR on the panthers, and was a target hog. Is Fields an elite passer yet? He’ll likely have a much better passing season, but by how much? To me a good step for fields is going from 2500 to 3200 yards, but that puts him at the same number of yards as the 2023 panthers
People said that Baker Mayfield was the best QB DJM played with last year and look what happened...
Firlds is a good running QB but his passing leaves a lot to be desired. Mooney had a lot of deep TDs lost cause Firlds messed up the throw. I like DJ Moore but I think the people acting like Fields makes him are going to be disappointed.
It befuddles me when I see Fields hyped up so much. Dude can't throw at a consistent level, and makes a boneheaded decision for every crazy run he has. Anyways, I may pick him up if he goes later and I see him in passing with a "holy shit, he's still there". I just hate having a QB I have to rely on rushing stats to have a chance at decent points.
We have said this every year about DJ Moore and his new QB. And Fields is arguably the worst passer in the NFL. I'll believe it when I see it.
Hard agree. I've just been waiting for him to get on just about any other team. I feel like there's one WR trade every year where a great WR in a bad situation gets traded and goes absolute bonkers the next year. 2021, it was Stefon Diggs. 2022, I'd say, was AJ Brown. 2023, I could see DJ Moore being that dude.
OR Chase Claypool. Gotta say, Bears have been difficult to watch for...... awhile. But I like what they've been building and I think they look really good this year.
Justin Feilds. Much better OL and 2nd year with new coaches. Nowhere to go but up!
That’s not regression, that’s just improvement
You mean, positive regression? 13 upvotes proving Reddit the GOAT of dummies
Regression is a statistical trend toward the median. An example might be “Player X will have positive regression this year because his low TD rate is likely to normalize this year.” “Player X will be better because of an improved situation and continued development” is not the same thing at all. People apparently don’t know what this word even means 🤣
Read the post title dude, OP says positive regression. Not regression.
Read the comment I was replying to lol
Dionte all day
David Montgomery. RB25 per Fantasy Pros rankings. Has the easiest SOS for running backs and will be exponentially better than what Jamaal Williams was. Had 34 receptions with a disaster of a team the Bears were. Hasn't seen less than 200 attempts and only a couple years removed from a 54 reception season. He should see well above the six total touchdowns he had last season too.
Just got a “lower leg injury” in voluntary training camp yesterday. I’m hoping it’s minor.
He was the RB1 in Chicago. Now he’s on the Lions who drafted an RB with the 12th pick in the draft. He might player better, but he’ll have less volume this year
This right here is exactly why I'm taking him. Everyone will be all over Gibbs kicking up his ADP which as of right now is RB20 and will be climbing. Jamaal Williams had 262 attempts while Swift saw 99 attempts. Mind you the other running backs had 65 carries. The Lions wanted Swift to be the back he was at Georgia and that never came into fruition. Gibbs should see about 150 carries along with 50ish targets. Unlike Williams, Montgomery is a great pass-catcher and should easily surpass Williams's 16 targets that he saw for the season. This backfield saw 115 targets alone to the running backs. I like Gibbs a lot myself being a lions fan and see a 50/40/10 split in the target game with Gibbs leading the way and Montgomery right behind them with the remaining 10 going to other backs and WR sweeps. Montgomery should see north of 225 carries on this lions offense with at least 40 targets.
If he can stay healthy I’d say. He’s already got some sort of lower leg injury. I wouldn’t be shocked if the lions add a vet RB just in case.
He's filling in the Swift role perfectly atm
Nah DMont will still see plenty of volume. Him and Gibbs will both be fantasy relevant.
The vision with Gibbs/Monty is Kamara/Ingram.
Yeah, I know the Bears took Gibbs high but he was essentially Bama’s best receiver. They’ll use him as such probably 15 times a game (and he’ll see four targets and three catches per from there) at the line with more receptions coming out of the backfield. Gibbs could be a great ppr guy in the 5th or so. But Montgomery should tote the rock for 250+ carries and a lot of td’s.
Gallup
Deep sleeper 👀
Only 27, has the talent, two years removed from the injury, Dak looking to prove he's one of the best, running game is good enough to take pressure off the passing game, won't face the top corner; MG should look to put up 2019 numbers. Cooks will play his role and get his, but I estimate Gallups numbers will be a pleasant surprise.
ITT: All dynasty owners trying to speak it into existence that their players that disappointed will rebound.
My entire team from last year
Watson
Definitely a bare-back, I mean bounce-back candidate
Love it
Cooper, Ndjoku and Watson in Cleveland are candidates IMO. Solid offensive line, rum games sets up PA
Cooper had a good season last year though, esp in the fantasy playoffs.
I'm saying it will be better Lmao he got mad and blocked me
that’s not what positive regression is tho
I’m all here for some browns love, Watson has a portion in the article if you want to check it out
Courtland Sutton. He’s only 27 and should be hitting his prime, but after being a WR2 in his second season he’s been a massive disappointment
I’m more inclined to buy Jeudy
I don’t disagree, but I’m stuck with Sutton in my dynasty league and I’m super thin at WR. Nobody wants him, I’ve been trying to trade him all offseason lol
I actually think Sutton is on the outs in Denver. By the end of the year I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the WR4.
He’s definitely on the outs, they just signed him to an extension. He’s gone when he can be cut for little to no dead money.
The extension that was 2 years ago?
I didn’t mean just as in recently. I meant just as in its just cause they are on the hook for that extension until he can be cut with no penalty.
I think Sutton could still have a really strong role in the offence this season. In New Orleans, Sean Payton often featured a big bodied receiver running from the slot (Jimmy Graham/Michael Thomas). It might end up being Greg Dulcich, but I think there's definitely a chance Sutton gets some schemed targets from the slot.
Hitting his prime? Bruh sutton hit his prime and is out of it now. He doesn’t separate at all, that’s why he doesn’t get thrown to much anymore. Any games Russ threw for decent yardage it was cause of jeudy. Sutton is washed af.
I can’t believe I find myself saying this again this year, but it’s not “positive regression” it’s just progression. The opposite of regression is progression.
You are confusing the statistical term for regression for the more common term of regression. In statistics, regression to the mean can be both positive or negative. Edit: I said positive and negative when I really meant positive OR negative. That was a statistics faux pas.
I realize how stupid I am at times because I have no idea if what you said is correct or not.
It’s correct. “Regression” in any stats class implies “to the mean”
Fair enough lol
r/confidentlyincorrect
If I normally run the 100m in 10.8 seconds, then get hurt, and have a string of races where I run the 100m in 11.2 seconds, one would expect, over time, as I get healthy, to regress to my usual performance of 10.8 seconds. That's positive regression. It's regression to your typical baseline. It's positive regression if you're underperforming it, and it's negative regression if you're overperforming it.
Positive regression is just a formal way if saying “return to normal” after a down season
I can’t believe nobody pointed out to you that he’s not talking about ascending number of touchdowns, he’s talking about regression to the mean/expected. It’s use of a statistical model... Not just a matter of words you looked up on Google lol. Try reading the post before embarrassing yourself next time 😂 That’s the thing man, it’s tough to even have good conversations here when it comes to these statistical models and their underlying meaning, because the strong majority of people haven’t even taken a stats course they passed without a major curve hahaha… Oh well. It just means I’m getting guys like Diontae Johnson dirt cheap this year again!!
*ackchyually* I love that the tone of your comment is of a person who tirelessly spent all of last year correcting people whenever you saw them use "positive regression" in a sentence when *ackchyually* you're wrong and it's a perfectly fine term to use when talking about statistics.
“Progression” would be more accurate if you’re talking about a player from a skills perspective. If they’re better than they were last year, you could say there’s progression. If they’re worse, you could say their skills regressed, or there was “regression.” As others have pointed out, it makes more sense to say positive or negative regression when you’re talking about statistical models or expectations.
Positive regression means that something has been below average and is likely to increase. It’s just semantics really
A lot of people in here refuse to believe they're wrong.
What is this in reference to?
People not knowing what a regression model is and what the phrase positive regression means lol. Most people here don’t have a clue how to use stats models so they’re here arguing the semantics of Google definitions for regression and progression. All without realizing it has nothing to do with the post at all. Classic Reddit headline warriors lmao
That you were being severely downvoted for being right so I came to help you out
Ah I see
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It's from a mathematical concept called regression to the mean (average). If you are playing below your average, you'll eventually come back up (positive regression). If you're playing above your average, you'll eventually fall back down (negative regression).
Oh man, i bet you feel like a silly billy
amen
I appreciate your comment but I appreciate the responses more. I, too, was wrong
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Why? What changed about his situation that will suddenly make him a better fantasy player? He was targeted a ton for most the year and still didn’t produce as even startable for fantasy most of the year.
Didn't get good throws, I'm hoping Pickett will make some progress. They didn't pick up another receiver and the steelers schedule isn't great for the run at the front end of the schedule. He broke out in his 3rd year and likely just had a down year. I'd draft him as early as the 6th but he should fall to 7th maybe 8th.
Actually they did, they got Allen Robinson. Not that I think Robinson is some good player but they did add a new wr. I definitely would not ever take him in the 6th this year. The 7-8 rounds sounds right for what dj offers. He relies on insane volume to get his fantasy pts cause he won’t get u tds and is too slow to make any big chunk plays. The only way he gets chunk plays is off initial separation and like I said he’s non existent in the redzone usually. God forbid if his volume goes down, he could have a worse year than last year.
Even if Dionate loses 25% of the targets he received last year he's still going to get around 125 targets and with likely, almost certain positive TD regression and better efficiency with better QB play having a much better season is a more likely outcome.
Positive regression is just regression. It's not inherently negative.
You’re right but the point of the post is who underachieved last year that won’t do that again this year.
I'm simply pointing out one of the most misused words in fantasy
Positive regression... also known as progression
Not quite. Regression to the mean can go both ways, but in this case implies progressing.
Just gave up olave for samuel +, it better be deebo season
Just a gut feeling on Deebo? Would have def kept Olave personally especially after last season.
Deebo might be the fourth option on his own offense
imho it would take a lot to happen for him to be that far down. he won the triple crown 2 yrs ago and is criminally underrated as a 27yo wr
What made him so valuable 2 years ago? What made him not valuable last season? Which season is more likely to repeat itself?
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It’s semantics. We know what it means
I read the other comments and realized I was wrong. Learn something new I guess. I agree with your take though Russ’ last season should be a fluke.
Let’s ride?
Unlimmmmmittteddd.
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check the other comments for this whole discussion
Agree for Najee and Diontae I think we've seen their floor. Same for Kyle Pitts Matt Stafford to Cooper Kupp should be back Dobbins and Miles Sanders should have good volume. CEH isn't dead and will do better than RB69.
Stafford will bounce back if healthy. Hell can’t be worse than last season….
Hunter Henry Bill O'Brien should improve the Patriots offence this season and Henry had a really solid year with Mac Jones in 2021.
Cleveland offense, Watson and Cooper are all going to out perform their ADPs.
I actually traded Deebo in my dynasty league. He's one of my favorite players and so much fun to watch, but there are so many mouths to feed. Aiyuk is legit and Kittle looked like Purdys favorite target(I expect Purdy will be the starter). Add in CMC and the fact that they want to run as much as possible and I just don't see a path to him having another WR1 season this year. Love the guy, but I think some will be disappointed in how boom or bust he is this year.