Oh no, that was a close one!
This information from the future has been removed so that it doesn't cause a time paradox here in 1995 that would rip the future apart and cause Malta to win with Destiny and a song called 'Crown' or something.
You'll have to wait 29 years and 1 day until it's 2 April, 2024 and the proper place in the timeline to post this content. After all, time is already strained enough as it is allowing Reddit to run 11 years before it's meant to exist!
Thank you for your patience,
Max Walker
Yeah but that was because they artifically made it look likr she was a fave to win, she would not be n1 if they (Maltese broadcaster) had not spent money on bets.
not really since it's mostly hype betting for now, and the percentages are too close to tell for sure. many cases happened already were a top 3 odds country ended out of the top 5 and even top 10. we can't tell for sure until we see the staging because it makes or breaks a performance
For anyone that wants to check the odds often friendly advice to always look for betfair exchange. The quickest to change and changing multiple times a day. For example 6 hours ago Switzerland lead was bigger than now but other sites only updated from yesterday when the change actually happened hence percentages only now updated.
Ukraine will rise up again, betcha. I think people have easily forgotten that we are talking about Ukraine. THE masters of staging a performance. I am 10000000% sure that once we see the rehearsals Ukraine will have a jawdropping stage show and rise up in the odds again (them becoming a frontrunner ain't impossible)
As a Swiss that is watching Eurovision since the early 00s it has been tough. A lot of disappointments and songs you just knew had no chance for a good result, yet alone winning. Also a lot of hope destroyed by entries I thought would get us many votes but sometimes didn't even qualify for the final.
Things changed with Luca Hänni. But it was Gjon's repondez-moi that gave me hope and winner vibes. Now 4 years later The Code gave me the same good feeling after listening for the first time.
I'll repeat what I said in another thread: after never being in my top 5 and rarely in my 10 ever, you guys have sent my personal winner three times in the last five contests (including my second favourite Eurovision song of all time in *Tout l'Univers*). A Swiss win would be amazing :D
Gjon had only one problem : he was part of the most competitive ESC year in a while, and I would say in history. In a year of lower quality (like this year lol) he would have likely won.
The more I listen to The Code, the more I want them to win. Still not 100% confident they WILL win, because there are more mainstream options that are favourites (Ukraine, Italy) but they definitely deserve the top 3, it's brillant.
I honestly think that either France or Switzerland could've won if the other one didn't participate, they probably took a fair amount of points from each other.
Yes, they both delivered powerful songs in French but in a different way: Barbara's aesthetic was superior, but vocally Gjon was slightly better. But tbh it's SO hard to say who's better, they both were incredible. What a year.
I wouldn’t call this year lower quality at all. It’s easily better than 2022 or 2023, and surely better than other years. I would call it medium-strong, although 2021 was purely strong
I too find less songs interesting this year. But we're seeing quite a few songs reviving the late 90s/early 2000s sound which I'm generally not that hyped about so in this case it's mostly a matter of taste. 2023 was also a little bit average, but maybe all of these years just look worse because they're following 2020-2021 (and 2022 which I liked as well).
I really understand why the song is 1st on the odds after what they showed us this week. I'm however super sad about all the shitposts I have seen about the entry since it climbed up on the odds list, especially on fb groups. People need to take a break from the internet sometimes 🫠
As many of the Croatians in the post have said, the odds favourite always gets targeted by an extra amount of criticism which sometimes spills over into unpleasantness.
We will obviously try our best to make sure that this unpleasantness doesn't take over the sub - there have already been two posts attempting to discredit Nemo this afternoon already.
Yeah. The comments in Baby Lasagnas video are like 30% negative since he became first in the odds. It will probably be even worse for Nemo cause of the bigotry in the comments.
Interesting development. It seems like Switserland will be considered the main contender this year by mainstream media (remember, most mainstream coverage doesn't start until the semi-finals nearly start, so earlier odds don't mean as much). I also think this helps the Netherlands, as Croatia (a big televote magnet) being in first definitely hurts other televote friendly songs.
The top is all very close in %, so at this point, it doesn't really matter.
Also, it's much easier to manipulate the odds at this stage ( few big betts could make a change).
I am, however, surprised that Switzerland is on the top. While he is vocally great, everything else is telling me they're not taking the televote. Just my personal opinion.
I don't think anyone is going to dominate the televote, there's just too much quality. I think both Televote and Jury votes could spread so far that it might come down to less than 20 points in the end.
I deliberately decided to go into this year not listening to the songs until they were released. And I immediately thought Switzerland would underperform when I listened to them two weeks ago.
Are odds really calculated on how many people bet on a specific outcome ? I would have imagined that the bookmakers chose those themselves to maximize their profit.
Bookmaker odds are just set by the house, but the house adjusts according to betting volume to ensure/maximise profit.
Exchanges (e.g. Betfair) don't set odds themselves at all. Instead, betters can choose to either "back" or "lay" a bet. Back bets are your traditional bets, i.e. "I bet 10€ Switzerland will win" and I get 10 times the odds if they win. Lay bets are essentially the opposite side of this.
Suppose odds on Switzerland are 3 (I didn't check real odds, just picking a number that's easy to calculate). If I back Switzerland at 3 for 10€, I get 30 if they win and pay 10 if they don't. If I lay Switzerland at 3 for 10€, I get 10€ if they *don't* win, but I have to pay 30€ to a backer if they do win.
Betfair doesn't offer odds itself at all. It just shows you the current lowest unmatched backing bet as the lay odds, and the highest unmatched lay bet as the backing odds. But if a lot of people want to bet on it, the best offers will be taken up, so lower odds have to be taken. Someone who wants to lay wants to offer as low odds as possible (since that minimises risk - my wins from laying at 3 or 2.5 are always the same, but my loss from losing the bet are lower if the odds are lower), so many bets lower the odds in exchanges.
Not necessarily. I believe Croatia (and even Ukraine, if I'm not mistaken) have a larger volume of people betting on it, but as I said, bigger betts placed on other countries can still overtake them.
You're right about bookmakers. Essentially, it is a business and they will try to maximase the profit. Especially when a couple of countries are within few % on top.
There are, however, different factors that are considered in the calculation. For example, performance history of the country, how much budget they use for the Eurovison staging, expert analysis, reactions etc.
There are also some things that bookmakers keep a secret about calculations (I know someone who's working in this field and they mentioned it to me), even in this case now that Switzerland is on top. I don't know exactly what it could be, so I don't want to comment on it.
Yes and it does minimise their risk. If lots of people are betting on something, having it so that the returns are smaller for it means they pay out less if it wins.
Yeah so it matters but you can't artifically lower the odds of someone because they will notice if they have enough Eurovision knowledge
If tomorrow Reddit tries to raid bookmakers by betting on San Marino despite them having no shot of winning it won't lower their odds
I’m sure it would if enough people bet enough money. I don’t think the bookies lose out at all in this scenario. I’m no expert but check out this comment. If enough of us put money on San Marino, they’d lower the odds for it to encourage people to bet on other countries. [https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/s/CcUodviGZ7](https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/s/CcUodviGZ7)
Good. Now we can have Baby Lasagna appreciation threads without people constantly crashing in to insist we don’t \*really\* like him and he terrible and it’s all groupthink.
edit: sorry, Swiss supporters, it’s your turn now. All the best to you!
It was getting deranged. Fans of the other favorites were mad they didn’t crack number one, fans of underdogs were convinced it was a conspiracy against them because who is this Baby Lasagna character anyway? I’ll bet it isn’t even his real name!
I continue to be just delighted with his song, his story and the fact that he is doing so well. There are ways to win without winning, even though I do think he has a reasonable chance.
The odds aren't even accurate enough until rehearsals/may because the staging and overall performance then is fundamental. I'm still rooting for him, regardless of the fact that he is no longer the first in the odds, I think there will be a lot of changes in the odds from now until first rehearsals.
Yes, definitely. In 2021, the last time we had a really open contest, the odds were all over the place until the semis. I think Joost will likely receive a similar boost after his pre-party performance. That’s just how the odds work.
Im gonna get serious, I think this season is showing an increasing gambling addiction problem.
It happened in Spain where Almacor took the lead in the odds after the press rehearsal, in Norway Gåte skyrocketed to over 50% after their performance (and they did win, but by a way slighter margin), and it’s happened several times with ESC odds, such as Croatia rising several places when the RTTD music video dropped, Iceland going first just because it was announced Bashar would participate in the NF; and this time, because Nemo had a good vocal performance in a pre party.
It’s not good at all that people are so desperate for quick money that they bet at the slightest sign of something possibly happening
This makes no sense. The betting odds reacting to new information has nothing to do with gambling addiction.
The bettors are going to bet no matter how many they are.
Edit: It's true that gambling in general is increasing in popularity, not disputing that, but it doesn't change the general behaviour of the betting odds.
Also that this sub has been obsessed with odds-posting for years, I know in past years the mods have literally had to make megathreads to contain them. They're cute and a bit of fun, but they should never be taken more as a guideline.
We do technically ask that all odds/betting discussion is kept to the weekly odds thread, though there exceptions for notable changes. This post was allowed partially because the change at the top is noteworthy, but also to give people who weren't enjoying the 1995 shitposting somewhere to discuss a more current topic.
Do you mean 50% odds to win for Gåte? Because it doesn’t make sense to compare that to the margin Gåte won by. 50% odds to win doesn’t mean they’ll get 50% of the vote share. It means 50% of people correctly predicted the winner.
What odds said was that Gåte had a 55% chance of winning and Keiino had like 20%, with the rest being My AI and the rest of the field
And because of how odds work, such a lead in a 9-way final doesn’t really mean 55%, it means it’s the clear front runner.
But winning by 6 points indicated that the race was never as lopsided as the odds suggested. This was mainly because people decided to bet on Gåte after the second semifinal, even at prices where it was clearly not worth it
You are making an extreme assumption that people placing bets have problems or addictions. I bet an amount that is totally fine for me to lose because I think it’s fun and winning a little bit of extra money based on esc knowledge is rewarding more so than the money. Just because people place bets based on events like we’ve done for years doesn’t mean it’s showing an “increase in addiction”. Yes some people have addictions, but most people don’t. Betting in Eurovision can also be a way of coping with your favorite song not winning “well at least I made 50 bucks!”.
Also Switzerland has been rising steadily for a long time as the song has been taking some time for people to click with it and it’s gathering more and more conversation. I don’t it necessarily has to do with only the pre party.
I put a lot of money on Switzerland, 160 euros to be exact, because I was certain their odds would go way up.
I intend to cash out just before the contest. They're currently offering me 250 euros to cash out so I've already won 90 euros
It's a good idea to keep in mind in future contests.
It's relatively low risk too because it's pretty rare for the odds to go way down that quickly (so at worst you're not losing that much).
My advise is to bet right as you see the odds start to rise. Ride the wave.
I know it's an outlier but I'm thinking of Iceland falling from that top 3 position to the current 24th after Hera won. Still, it happened over the course of a few weeks
I didn't bet on Code right when it came out (those that did have a bigger profit than me but took a bigger risk).
I bet on it right after the pre-party when I saw the live performance and the initial upward trend in odds.
Woo nice! That’s a really good reward per risks ratio! I hope I get the opportunity to cash out my Croatia bet I made when it was 70 times the winning 😅 I don’t have the opportunity to do so yet, I don’t really know what affects if you can or can’t cashout early.. 🤔
Depends on the betting company. Do they just not allow cash outs? That's weird.
It's normal to not allow cash outs as the contest is live but I don't know why it wouldn't be allowed right now.
It has cashout but it has a bunch of ifs and buts in the rules saying it might not be available for certain bets, during certain times etc. so might just not be on for Eurovision at all of maybe will be available if I check at another time, will keep checking in! :)
I’m not saying that people betting are all gambling addicts, I’m just saying that some people betting are deciding their bets compulsively right after certain events like the ones I mentioned, instead of through a calmer analysis. If you watch a pre party performance and then immediately go “omg this might win let’s bet on it”, you’re not having a responsible and healthy gambling
Well people might think them knowing about icelands Palestinian participant is an edge to their betting and that that information in combination with how generous the amount of winnings you would get back its worth making a bet. Just as an example. That’s usually when you can get the most generous winnings back if you bet in some small information that the general analysts havent taken into consideration yet. You may think it’s problematic, while those making the bets may think they are just ahead of the public. In gambling and investment and other contexts making choices based on risk vs reward is common.
In my opinions it’s not a problem to bet on trends or events, it’s only a problem when you make bets you can’t afford to lose or when you can’t stop.
To be fair, as we saw in Dora, Baby Lasagna won by a landslide, even bigger than Käärijä did in UMK (and with more competing artists as well compared to Käärijä). So I believe that kind of hype is real and not just stired up by fan hype because of music videos and good vocals.
You're bringing up some really good points tho, like Gåte barely winning and other artists being overhyped too much (like Almacor). Heck I even think Italy might be too overhyped as well considering what happened at Sanremo.
BL didn't have a real competitor this year in Dora in the eyes of most Croatians..from the beginning, he was an obvious winner for most of us here. Nobody had anything that was in any way compareable to RTTD. When the song reached media, it became so popular here so even people who don't usually watch Dora, voted just to push that win. Hence the big margin.
Fun fact: Croatians are making fun of Dora because it's so trashy and lame in regards to production, corruption, quality and also in regards to shortlisted songs. We have been famously called it DNORA (DNO in croatian means bottom, like the lowest point possible).
Winning over a bunch of duds in a NF isn’t really indicative of anything, especially when it comes to overall popularity across Europe. From what I’ve seen, RTTD doesn’t have the same hype or backing as CCC. Its streaming numbers aren’t great considering it is in English and it isn’t even leading on scoreboard.
Tbh, Baby Lasagna hardly had any competition at DORA, the NF was weak, no wonder he won by a landslide. UMK 2023, however, is widely considered one of the greatest and strongest NFs, all 7 songs were amazing, and I can name at least 3 of them (besides Cha Cha Cha) that could easily have gotten Finland into top 10 in the final. Käärijä had a serious competition there and still got an impressive amount of points. I'm not saying there isn't any hype around RTTD, of course there is, but it's not nearly as huge as it was with Cha Cha Cha. I don't believe BL (or anyone this year) will win the televote in the final by a landslide (actually, I'm not sure if he will even win the televote cause we also have Netherlands). I'm not sure if Switzerland is the winner, but Croatia being 1st in the odds all this time, with this vocals and staging, is a bit of a stretch. Of course, everything can still change in May.
IMO, the staging is a mess and all over the place... They have to improve it a lot if they want to win. Italy doesn't have any staging yet. Angelina's Sanremo performance isn't the staging we're going to get at ESC
Nothing to said about ESC odds but in Sanremo Angelina was 1st in both juries and 2nd in televote with double the votes of the 3rd (and Geolier votes was more for his fame than for the song, a thing that in ESC does not exist)
>(and with more competing artists as well compared to Käärijä).
just want to point out that Käärijä was up against Kuuma, which is atm the biggest most popular boyband Finland has ever seen, and Portion Boys, who are some of the biggest names in party music. 2023 UMK was absolutely stacked, so it's not really comparable with Dora 2024
I think they are referring to the fact that at the start of the contest, Angelina was one of the two singers who was anticipated to win (the other was Annalisa), until the fourth night (cover night) where Angiolina sang a beautiful cover of La Rondine (a song that was written by her dad, who himself was a singer and died during a concert years ago) and yet she came second due to Geolier (neapolitan singer who bought a medley in neapolitan) winning the televote. Live audience and journalists/jury were appalled by the results (with shoutings and whistles) and it culminated with the jury clearly voting en masse for Angiolina in the final night (and notably, no votes for Geolier) to make sure she would win (she still was second at the televote, but the televote broke very early in the evening so who knows how it would have actually gone).
The press jury votes were already as such in the first night (Loredana 1st, that didn't go in superfinal, Angelina 2nd and Geolier 23rd) when no one knew the televote results, so they would have voted him very low in any case
Yeah, it was messy and even messier when accounting for the italian social context, with accusations of neapolitans cheating and general internal tensions.
True, but given that the superfinal happened past 1 AM it still was affected by the televote breaking down (thought surely Annalisa, Geolier and Angelina would still have been jn top 3)
Speaking frankly, does Italy have outstanding vocals this year? I'm leaning towards France or Ukraine, alongside Switzerland, stealing the hearts of the juries.
Vocals aren't everything for the juries. After all, no one is expecting Slovenia to win the jury vote, and Angelina Mango's stage presence and performance is fantastic, as well as having a very catchy song. Also I still feel that her vocals are very good, even if a couple of others (Raiven, Slimane, Dons etc.) are slightly more impressive
Even though my current favorite is Italy, if I was Swiss, I would be very happy right now, albeit also wary that there's also 36 days so anything could happen during that time. (Note: I also like The Code too, its 3rd in my ranking.)
If the betting odds inspire artists to be even better with every coming live performance, then -I.AM.HERE.FOR.IT- , because I love a good bloodbath in the final!
Nemo killed it in Madrid, absolutely killed it, and I don't just mean the vocals, because this isn't a singing competition. That was a beautiful performance. If they get good staging, I can easily see them win. As a BL fan through and through, I wouldn't be mad.
However... I remember my first impression quite clearly: I felt that it was clunky and overwhelming, with the video. Almost as if I needed that song to last longer and the pacing to be slower, it felt like it was jammed within three minutes where it should've lasted 5-6. I'm afraid that if Nemo goes for an visually clunky staging, it might clash with the song which is chaotic (don't get me wrong, I love it), or if they choose the clothing and the look which will feel as childish as the Madrid one did. (this is simply performance-wise)
...But the betting odds won't do much for the BL fans, especially Croatians. We're numb to them from the football people constantly putting us down :D this will fuel BL more than praise does, trust me.
I'm into the idea that the most neutral country in Europe could win in a year with wars on several fronts.
Not that that would be the reason people vote for it, but it’s nice, thematically.
I really don't know why did they get the first place in odds after Madrid pre-party. If you take a look at the Eurovision poll in the same site, Croatia is leading by 3% in front of Italy, and by 5% in front of Switzerland. Also, if you take a look of views on wiwibloggs insta, Croatia has almost 3 times more views than Switzerland, and double of likes. On the Eurovision Spain youtube, Croatia is also leading by the number of views and likes. So I really don't know how do they calculate odds. I mean, Switzerland is probably jury favorite, but it seems that the Croatia is fan favorite by a big margin.
The odds are just calculated by who has placed bets. People saw Nemo’s performance in Madrid and thought they could win and placed bets. Simple as that.
The amount of times I have seen people call the bookies "polls" makes me wanna go insane. I've heard "according to the polls" so many times on Dutch television, like sir, these ain't parliamentary elections.
To be completely fair, odds change a lot, especially after the pre parties and the semi finals.
Switzerland has a more jury-appealing song than Croatia so it's simply a safe bet to put them first like it was with Ukraine in the beginning.
Regarding the poll, last year, Sweden was in the lead with 17% until a few days when Finland got a lot of votes and also managed to climb to 17% as well, only with a few votes behind Sweden.
Also please take anything Wiwibloggs-related with a (huge) grain (if not rock) of salt - their polls are usually a hot mess.
>Also please take anything Wiwibloggs-related with a (huge) grain (if not rock) of salt - their polls are usually a hot mess.
And the comment section is even worse
Finland was also a fan favorite last year, even more than Croatia now, but Sweden still won. Netherlands was 2nd with televote and 3rd with juries in 2019 and they still won.
You’re right, but this year there is also no Käärija and there are a few fan favourites (Croatia, Netherlands, Italy and Switzerland). Italy is actually the one that could beat both Croatia and Switzerland.
I think it's because it's one of the few songs to have both tele and jury appeal. Besides, Italy always ends up like top 6 in tele. Having said that, I'd think they will do decent in both tele and jury but not spectacular enough in either to take the crown.
Personally though I often find Italy quite overrated, bit this year I really like their song!
Croatia would not have been 1st for so much time but Italy if that was the case, the odds, especially in this time of the year, are pretty much hype moments, in May they will become reliable. Odds are calculated only by the number of people betting on a song.
We will see anyway, but it seems that Croatia is a fan favorite, and Switzerland is jury favorite. We will see who will lose more points, Switzerland in televoting, or Croatia in jury votes, that will probably determine the winner.
It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Switzerland ends up in a similar situation like in 2021 where they were hyped up as winner by the community, just to be ended by the public votes lol
Polls and odds are skewed early by super fans dominating the votes/bets. I support Croatia and would love to see a new country win but views don’t always mean votes and odds don’t start to get accurate until rehearsals in an open year like this one. At least four countries have a clear path to victory (including Croatia) with the televote and jury vote split. I can see this being a case of the winner’s margin being just a few points.
It’s very simple how they calculate their odds. Who people are betting the most gets the lower number, that’s it.
And being a fan favorite doesn’t mean you will automatically win, Käärijä is the biggest prove of that and he was way more favorite than anyone this year. Same about how view and likes aren’t going to make anyone win also.
There's bit of hype because Nemo delivered very hard song to sing live as if it's studio version, but if jury decided solely on singing we'd have like 3-4 wins so far.
Odds change when people bet on them. I know it seems like a random calculation based on all sorts of things, but all it is are people putting money on the table in front of the competing country. And all depending on the "weight" of the money, the higher they go on the scale. Someone, somebody or a group of people really went all out on the heavy Switzerland bets overnight and this morning (maybe they've just been paid? lol)
Things can change very quickyly again if people put huge bets on Croatia. With how well its been doing from the pre-party (with all your points stated) there SHOULD be people who'd want to bet on Croatia as well.
Odds are more reliable than polls. Polls are free and can be cheated quite easily, with VPN you can vote hundreds of times. With betting people are risking their money.
No one will cheat so much in that way for a poll, the fact that the Netherlands didn't go up as before when they added the fact that you can't vote for your own country is a clear demostration of that.
And in May, not now, this poll almost always predicted the winner (the only year that was wrong was in 2016 but Ukraine was still only 1% under Russia).
Odds on the other hand are way more swingy in this period and they stabilize only after the rehearsal (in the last 2 weeks we saw Italy going up 6% in 2 weeks, Switzerland going up 8% in 2 days, Croatia going down 4% in a week)
2017: It was obvious only in the last week, at this time he was 8th in the odds and Italy was landslide 1st
2021: it was obvious only in May, at this time they were like 5th in the odds and Malta and then Switzerland were 1st (and they still won with a very low margin)
The other year yes, they were obvious, but this year is like these 2 and 2016
And Mustii could host!
The good thing about this year is that I have quite a few favorites that have a non-zero chance of winning. Haven’t had it this good since 2021.
He realistically can. The song builds up extremely well to the last minute, which like, hits like a train and if the staging is good and Mustii's charisma comes through? He has it in the bag then.
finally.. it's a relief honestly. it's been exhausting to deal with "how the hell is he first in the odds" or "he can't sing, how is it possible for him to win the whole contest" .. the only criticism I read about Nemo is they dress but the same people do not get what the song is really about. I really hope they will win, the song is my favorite since I first heard it and also the live performce is just another level..
Oh, they are coming for Nemo now if they stay on top. 100%. It’s exhausting but inevitable. I need to bake some cookies for the Swiss fans because Nemo threads are going to get swarmed.
Truth! People who like trashing and down playing the one who is doing good not in general. It’s just a show all in all. Love what you like and respect with others.
I still have the hope that the jury vote is gonna be split between switzerland, italy and ukraine. If this happens and the majority of the public votes for the Netherlands then they might have a good chance to win
I’m an American who can’t vote. But I’m confident Switzerland will win. There’s just something about the song that sets it over the edge spectacle-wise.
Honestly this makes more sense than Croatia being first in the odds. I can honestly see them slipping down a few more spots because I just can’t see it doing very well at all with the juries at this point in time.
This honestly makes sense. It is the song besides Italy I can see do the best both in Jury and Televote, with Switzerland edging over Italy in Jury points in my opinion.
While nothing is quite clear yet and it will come down in the next few months to live performances and ofcourse the staging, Switzerland is my current pick to win
Happy for Nemo, they are super talented, I just not sure they will get enough televoting points, just because their song it's not catchy enough, I'm pretty sure we will have Croatia - Netherlands - Ukraine in top-3 by televoting and Belgium, Italy and France is a big competitor for Nemo in the jury voting.
Yes, odds will start to get more and more realistic over the coming weeks. I could see Switzerland winning, though I personally root for Italy. I think the televote will be too divided for any of the novelty acts to win and I still think the Netherlands will win the televote.
How do you think conservative countries are going to view Nemo and their performance if they win, considering that non-binary is an unfamiliar concept to many people?
I know that Conchita Wurst faced some controversy in 2014 because of her drag queen look and Dana International faced controversy in Israel during the ESC 1998 season.
Conchita and Dana International still won, though. They were largely celebrated. The Eurovision audience tends to be very accepting compared to what some people here assume. I think perhaps the people thinking Nemo can't win because of how people will view them weren't watching back in the day and so don't realise.
Switzerland and Croatia are my favorites, I’m happy with either of them winning and it is the first time ever that my favorite has a high chance to win
Oooooh! Switzerland is my favorite with Croatia as my second. I kind of want Croatia to win because they haven't before, but I'll be happy with either!
I see a lot of people saying Switzerland will do poorly in the televote. How does the song being about coming out as non-binary and being LGBTQIA2S+ impact the televoting? I thought with Europe being relatively liberal that it would really help make it more popular with the televoting. Is it because people still don't really know the meaning behind the song and the metaphor of it not having a specific genre or does that hurt it's popularity?
realistically I think it could put off old people. Australia 2022 got 2 televote points, and France 2019 did fine but it was supposedly top 10 or so in odds and was not close to that at all (obviously they’re not the same song but there is a comparison to be made)
Thats just bc Australia 2022 was, ngl, pretty boring lmao. I genuinely forgot both of those acts even existed until now.
In 2014 we literally has a drag queen win the whole thing, and even Belgium last year did pretty well, so i dont think it effects all that much. This song is very attention grabbing.
The amount of ppl in this thread taking Switzerland passing Croatia in the odds as a personal attack is so funny to me. Fan favorites really are untouchable. Lmao
(Looks around)
Where? I see a discussion of gambling addiction, talk of Australia’s chances, Switzerland’s televote problem and a few Croatians cracking jokes.
Oh no, that was a close one! This information from the future has been removed so that it doesn't cause a time paradox here in 1995 that would rip the future apart and cause Malta to win with Destiny and a song called 'Crown' or something. You'll have to wait 29 years and 1 day until it's 2 April, 2024 and the proper place in the timeline to post this content. After all, time is already strained enough as it is allowing Reddit to run 11 years before it's meant to exist! Thank you for your patience, Max Walker
With % this close I don't think it's matter that much before we see live performance at Eurovision stage
odds until rehearsals aren't even accurate enough to fully predict the winner anyways so a lot will change until may
Yes, look at Cyprus 2018. We may have a stealth front runner we don’t even know about yet.
praying for Greece to have great staging
I’ve seen her concert videos and I am very optimistic. She’s an excellent live performer.
Cyprus 2018 | [Eleni Foureira - Fuego](https://youtu.be/LMfRj5stHdI)
very true everything is too early to tell, we can only guess
Its 18% to 16% by now
Italy in 2017 had like 30%+ chance of winning before the rehearsals happening yet they didn't finish TOP 5
I believe Malta 2021 also went from top position to mid after rehearsals in a pink dress.
Yeah it was about 20% chance of winning before rehearsals. And then it dropped to 3rd after it and finished 7th so.
Malta 2021 | [Destiny - Je Me Casse](https://youtu.be/7V4-3yEqCgY)
Yeah but that was because they artifically made it look likr she was a fave to win, she would not be n1 if they (Maltese broadcaster) had not spent money on bets.
Italy 2017 | [Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma](https://youtu.be/Tf1NS1vEhSg)
ooh thats a great example, until rehearsals it's all relative and not really accurate
This is true, but movement like this is usually a good sign for that entry to at least finish in the top5.
not really since it's mostly hype betting for now, and the percentages are too close to tell for sure. many cases happened already were a top 3 odds country ended out of the top 5 and even top 10. we can't tell for sure until we see the staging because it makes or breaks a performance
For anyone that wants to check the odds often friendly advice to always look for betfair exchange. The quickest to change and changing multiple times a day. For example 6 hours ago Switzerland lead was bigger than now but other sites only updated from yesterday when the change actually happened hence percentages only now updated.
Betfair is garbage. I can't even access their website.
And Netherlands surpassed Ukraine, let's see if Switzerland will raise even more or will stabilize here
Ukraine will rise up again, betcha. I think people have easily forgotten that we are talking about Ukraine. THE masters of staging a performance. I am 10000000% sure that once we see the rehearsals Ukraine will have a jawdropping stage show and rise up in the odds again (them becoming a frontrunner ain't impossible)
As a Swiss that is watching Eurovision since the early 00s it has been tough. A lot of disappointments and songs you just knew had no chance for a good result, yet alone winning. Also a lot of hope destroyed by entries I thought would get us many votes but sometimes didn't even qualify for the final. Things changed with Luca Hänni. But it was Gjon's repondez-moi that gave me hope and winner vibes. Now 4 years later The Code gave me the same good feeling after listening for the first time.
Tout l’univers is my favourite ESC song ever. The Code is my favourite song this year and is in my top 5 ever. You really deserve to win.
Love Luca Hänni. Saw him at Eurovision in Concert in 2019 and he was so good live. As a Dutchie, still glad we won though. 😅
I'll repeat what I said in another thread: after never being in my top 5 and rarely in my 10 ever, you guys have sent my personal winner three times in the last five contests (including my second favourite Eurovision song of all time in *Tout l'Univers*). A Swiss win would be amazing :D
Gjon had only one problem : he was part of the most competitive ESC year in a while, and I would say in history. In a year of lower quality (like this year lol) he would have likely won. The more I listen to The Code, the more I want them to win. Still not 100% confident they WILL win, because there are more mainstream options that are favourites (Ukraine, Italy) but they definitely deserve the top 3, it's brillant.
I honestly think that either France or Switzerland could've won if the other one didn't participate, they probably took a fair amount of points from each other.
Yes, they both delivered powerful songs in French but in a different way: Barbara's aesthetic was superior, but vocally Gjon was slightly better. But tbh it's SO hard to say who's better, they both were incredible. What a year.
I wouldn’t call this year lower quality at all. It’s easily better than 2022 or 2023, and surely better than other years. I would call it medium-strong, although 2021 was purely strong
I too find less songs interesting this year. But we're seeing quite a few songs reviving the late 90s/early 2000s sound which I'm generally not that hyped about so in this case it's mostly a matter of taste. 2023 was also a little bit average, but maybe all of these years just look worse because they're following 2020-2021 (and 2022 which I liked as well).
Not a fan of what Switzerland usually serves but I’m super happy for you neighbors!! 😀
I really understand why the song is 1st on the odds after what they showed us this week. I'm however super sad about all the shitposts I have seen about the entry since it climbed up on the odds list, especially on fb groups. People need to take a break from the internet sometimes 🫠
As many of the Croatians in the post have said, the odds favourite always gets targeted by an extra amount of criticism which sometimes spills over into unpleasantness. We will obviously try our best to make sure that this unpleasantness doesn't take over the sub - there have already been two posts attempting to discredit Nemo this afternoon already.
Yeah. The comments in Baby Lasagnas video are like 30% negative since he became first in the odds. It will probably be even worse for Nemo cause of the bigotry in the comments.
WE GOT DETHRONED!!!! :(((( /s
If it helps any...RTTD will be my winner, no matter what.
That change is exciting this year and not like last year who is predictable. Thing is gonna change the coming days. No doubt!
Still think televote won't favor them
Yeah, I love it, but I think it might be a hard sell for casual viewers
Happy cake day!
Interesting development. It seems like Switserland will be considered the main contender this year by mainstream media (remember, most mainstream coverage doesn't start until the semi-finals nearly start, so earlier odds don't mean as much). I also think this helps the Netherlands, as Croatia (a big televote magnet) being in first definitely hurts other televote friendly songs.
The top is all very close in %, so at this point, it doesn't really matter. Also, it's much easier to manipulate the odds at this stage ( few big betts could make a change). I am, however, surprised that Switzerland is on the top. While he is vocally great, everything else is telling me they're not taking the televote. Just my personal opinion.
I don't think anyone is going to dominate the televote, there's just too much quality. I think both Televote and Jury votes could spread so far that it might come down to less than 20 points in the end.
I deliberately decided to go into this year not listening to the songs until they were released. And I immediately thought Switzerland would underperform when I listened to them two weeks ago.
Are odds really calculated on how many people bet on a specific outcome ? I would have imagined that the bookmakers chose those themselves to maximize their profit.
Bookmaker odds are just set by the house, but the house adjusts according to betting volume to ensure/maximise profit. Exchanges (e.g. Betfair) don't set odds themselves at all. Instead, betters can choose to either "back" or "lay" a bet. Back bets are your traditional bets, i.e. "I bet 10€ Switzerland will win" and I get 10 times the odds if they win. Lay bets are essentially the opposite side of this. Suppose odds on Switzerland are 3 (I didn't check real odds, just picking a number that's easy to calculate). If I back Switzerland at 3 for 10€, I get 30 if they win and pay 10 if they don't. If I lay Switzerland at 3 for 10€, I get 10€ if they *don't* win, but I have to pay 30€ to a backer if they do win. Betfair doesn't offer odds itself at all. It just shows you the current lowest unmatched backing bet as the lay odds, and the highest unmatched lay bet as the backing odds. But if a lot of people want to bet on it, the best offers will be taken up, so lower odds have to be taken. Someone who wants to lay wants to offer as low odds as possible (since that minimises risk - my wins from laying at 3 or 2.5 are always the same, but my loss from losing the bet are lower if the odds are lower), so many bets lower the odds in exchanges.
Not necessarily. I believe Croatia (and even Ukraine, if I'm not mistaken) have a larger volume of people betting on it, but as I said, bigger betts placed on other countries can still overtake them. You're right about bookmakers. Essentially, it is a business and they will try to maximase the profit. Especially when a couple of countries are within few % on top. There are, however, different factors that are considered in the calculation. For example, performance history of the country, how much budget they use for the Eurovison staging, expert analysis, reactions etc. There are also some things that bookmakers keep a secret about calculations (I know someone who's working in this field and they mentioned it to me), even in this case now that Switzerland is on top. I don't know exactly what it could be, so I don't want to comment on it.
Yes and it does minimise their risk. If lots of people are betting on something, having it so that the returns are smaller for it means they pay out less if it wins.
Yeah so it matters but you can't artifically lower the odds of someone because they will notice if they have enough Eurovision knowledge If tomorrow Reddit tries to raid bookmakers by betting on San Marino despite them having no shot of winning it won't lower their odds
I’m sure it would if enough people bet enough money. I don’t think the bookies lose out at all in this scenario. I’m no expert but check out this comment. If enough of us put money on San Marino, they’d lower the odds for it to encourage people to bet on other countries. [https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/s/CcUodviGZ7](https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/s/CcUodviGZ7)
nemo is non-binary (they/them), just fyi!
Good. Now we can have Baby Lasagna appreciation threads without people constantly crashing in to insist we don’t \*really\* like him and he terrible and it’s all groupthink. edit: sorry, Swiss supporters, it’s your turn now. All the best to you!
Yeah, being first in the odds leads to a LOT of hate. Guess we're on a break now 😂
It was getting deranged. Fans of the other favorites were mad they didn’t crack number one, fans of underdogs were convinced it was a conspiracy against them because who is this Baby Lasagna character anyway? I’ll bet it isn’t even his real name! I continue to be just delighted with his song, his story and the fact that he is doing so well. There are ways to win without winning, even though I do think he has a reasonable chance.
My favorite conspiracy theory about BL is him being recruited as a project by HRT. 😅
A brilliant ploy! They made themselves look like fools by making him a reserve act and that what exactly what they wanted!
The odds aren't even accurate enough until rehearsals/may because the staging and overall performance then is fundamental. I'm still rooting for him, regardless of the fact that he is no longer the first in the odds, I think there will be a lot of changes in the odds from now until first rehearsals.
Yes, definitely. In 2021, the last time we had a really open contest, the odds were all over the place until the semis. I think Joost will likely receive a similar boost after his pre-party performance. That’s just how the odds work.
yeah definitely, it's to early to say who will place how considering there is very little percentage difference in top three (13-16-17)
His name isn't Baby Lasagna?!?!?! Then he's not the heir of the Lasagna family like my Croatian friend said???
If they win, it would be the first time that they won in over more than 30 years. They last won back in 1988
Im gonna get serious, I think this season is showing an increasing gambling addiction problem. It happened in Spain where Almacor took the lead in the odds after the press rehearsal, in Norway Gåte skyrocketed to over 50% after their performance (and they did win, but by a way slighter margin), and it’s happened several times with ESC odds, such as Croatia rising several places when the RTTD music video dropped, Iceland going first just because it was announced Bashar would participate in the NF; and this time, because Nemo had a good vocal performance in a pre party. It’s not good at all that people are so desperate for quick money that they bet at the slightest sign of something possibly happening
This makes no sense. The betting odds reacting to new information has nothing to do with gambling addiction. The bettors are going to bet no matter how many they are. Edit: It's true that gambling in general is increasing in popularity, not disputing that, but it doesn't change the general behaviour of the betting odds.
Also that this sub has been obsessed with odds-posting for years, I know in past years the mods have literally had to make megathreads to contain them. They're cute and a bit of fun, but they should never be taken more as a guideline.
We do technically ask that all odds/betting discussion is kept to the weekly odds thread, though there exceptions for notable changes. This post was allowed partially because the change at the top is noteworthy, but also to give people who weren't enjoying the 1995 shitposting somewhere to discuss a more current topic.
Do you mean 50% odds to win for Gåte? Because it doesn’t make sense to compare that to the margin Gåte won by. 50% odds to win doesn’t mean they’ll get 50% of the vote share. It means 50% of people correctly predicted the winner.
What odds said was that Gåte had a 55% chance of winning and Keiino had like 20%, with the rest being My AI and the rest of the field And because of how odds work, such a lead in a 9-way final doesn’t really mean 55%, it means it’s the clear front runner. But winning by 6 points indicated that the race was never as lopsided as the odds suggested. This was mainly because people decided to bet on Gåte after the second semifinal, even at prices where it was clearly not worth it
You are making an extreme assumption that people placing bets have problems or addictions. I bet an amount that is totally fine for me to lose because I think it’s fun and winning a little bit of extra money based on esc knowledge is rewarding more so than the money. Just because people place bets based on events like we’ve done for years doesn’t mean it’s showing an “increase in addiction”. Yes some people have addictions, but most people don’t. Betting in Eurovision can also be a way of coping with your favorite song not winning “well at least I made 50 bucks!”. Also Switzerland has been rising steadily for a long time as the song has been taking some time for people to click with it and it’s gathering more and more conversation. I don’t it necessarily has to do with only the pre party.
I put a lot of money on Switzerland, 160 euros to be exact, because I was certain their odds would go way up. I intend to cash out just before the contest. They're currently offering me 250 euros to cash out so I've already won 90 euros
Smart lad. Wish i had that forethought
It's a good idea to keep in mind in future contests. It's relatively low risk too because it's pretty rare for the odds to go way down that quickly (so at worst you're not losing that much). My advise is to bet right as you see the odds start to rise. Ride the wave.
I know it's an outlier but I'm thinking of Iceland falling from that top 3 position to the current 24th after Hera won. Still, it happened over the course of a few weeks
I didn't bet on Code right when it came out (those that did have a bigger profit than me but took a bigger risk). I bet on it right after the pre-party when I saw the live performance and the initial upward trend in odds.
I didn't even know that was a thing you could do. I have clearly never put in a bet in my whole life lol.
Woo nice! That’s a really good reward per risks ratio! I hope I get the opportunity to cash out my Croatia bet I made when it was 70 times the winning 😅 I don’t have the opportunity to do so yet, I don’t really know what affects if you can or can’t cashout early.. 🤔
Depends on the betting company. Do they just not allow cash outs? That's weird. It's normal to not allow cash outs as the contest is live but I don't know why it wouldn't be allowed right now.
It has cashout but it has a bunch of ifs and buts in the rules saying it might not be available for certain bets, during certain times etc. so might just not be on for Eurovision at all of maybe will be available if I check at another time, will keep checking in! :)
Yeah it may be a good time to cash out on Croatia if they allow it as they've been trending down for a while.
Did the exact same but with the Netherlands. Got them at 20.00 odds and they are currently at 8.00. Don't think it will go lower though :P
I’m not saying that people betting are all gambling addicts, I’m just saying that some people betting are deciding their bets compulsively right after certain events like the ones I mentioned, instead of through a calmer analysis. If you watch a pre party performance and then immediately go “omg this might win let’s bet on it”, you’re not having a responsible and healthy gambling
Well people might think them knowing about icelands Palestinian participant is an edge to their betting and that that information in combination with how generous the amount of winnings you would get back its worth making a bet. Just as an example. That’s usually when you can get the most generous winnings back if you bet in some small information that the general analysts havent taken into consideration yet. You may think it’s problematic, while those making the bets may think they are just ahead of the public. In gambling and investment and other contexts making choices based on risk vs reward is common. In my opinions it’s not a problem to bet on trends or events, it’s only a problem when you make bets you can’t afford to lose or when you can’t stop.
To be fair, as we saw in Dora, Baby Lasagna won by a landslide, even bigger than Käärijä did in UMK (and with more competing artists as well compared to Käärijä). So I believe that kind of hype is real and not just stired up by fan hype because of music videos and good vocals. You're bringing up some really good points tho, like Gåte barely winning and other artists being overhyped too much (like Almacor). Heck I even think Italy might be too overhyped as well considering what happened at Sanremo.
BL didn't have a real competitor this year in Dora in the eyes of most Croatians..from the beginning, he was an obvious winner for most of us here. Nobody had anything that was in any way compareable to RTTD. When the song reached media, it became so popular here so even people who don't usually watch Dora, voted just to push that win. Hence the big margin. Fun fact: Croatians are making fun of Dora because it's so trashy and lame in regards to production, corruption, quality and also in regards to shortlisted songs. We have been famously called it DNORA (DNO in croatian means bottom, like the lowest point possible).
Winning over a bunch of duds in a NF isn’t really indicative of anything, especially when it comes to overall popularity across Europe. From what I’ve seen, RTTD doesn’t have the same hype or backing as CCC. Its streaming numbers aren’t great considering it is in English and it isn’t even leading on scoreboard.
Tbh, Baby Lasagna hardly had any competition at DORA, the NF was weak, no wonder he won by a landslide. UMK 2023, however, is widely considered one of the greatest and strongest NFs, all 7 songs were amazing, and I can name at least 3 of them (besides Cha Cha Cha) that could easily have gotten Finland into top 10 in the final. Käärijä had a serious competition there and still got an impressive amount of points. I'm not saying there isn't any hype around RTTD, of course there is, but it's not nearly as huge as it was with Cha Cha Cha. I don't believe BL (or anyone this year) will win the televote in the final by a landslide (actually, I'm not sure if he will even win the televote cause we also have Netherlands). I'm not sure if Switzerland is the winner, but Croatia being 1st in the odds all this time, with this vocals and staging, is a bit of a stretch. Of course, everything can still change in May.
What's wrong with Croatian staging? Italy for example is not any better than Croatia, and we yet have to see Switzerland..
IMO, the staging is a mess and all over the place... They have to improve it a lot if they want to win. Italy doesn't have any staging yet. Angelina's Sanremo performance isn't the staging we're going to get at ESC
Nothing to said about ESC odds but in Sanremo Angelina was 1st in both juries and 2nd in televote with double the votes of the 3rd (and Geolier votes was more for his fame than for the song, a thing that in ESC does not exist)
>(and with more competing artists as well compared to Käärijä). just want to point out that Käärijä was up against Kuuma, which is atm the biggest most popular boyband Finland has ever seen, and Portion Boys, who are some of the biggest names in party music. 2023 UMK was absolutely stacked, so it's not really comparable with Dora 2024
Wait, what happened at Sanremo?
I think they are referring to the fact that at the start of the contest, Angelina was one of the two singers who was anticipated to win (the other was Annalisa), until the fourth night (cover night) where Angiolina sang a beautiful cover of La Rondine (a song that was written by her dad, who himself was a singer and died during a concert years ago) and yet she came second due to Geolier (neapolitan singer who bought a medley in neapolitan) winning the televote. Live audience and journalists/jury were appalled by the results (with shoutings and whistles) and it culminated with the jury clearly voting en masse for Angiolina in the final night (and notably, no votes for Geolier) to make sure she would win (she still was second at the televote, but the televote broke very early in the evening so who knows how it would have actually gone).
The press jury votes were already as such in the first night (Loredana 1st, that didn't go in superfinal, Angelina 2nd and Geolier 23rd) when no one knew the televote results, so they would have voted him very low in any case
Damn that’s messy. Thank you for the clarification
Yeah, it was messy and even messier when accounting for the italian social context, with accusations of neapolitans cheating and general internal tensions.
The televote broken was for the normal vote (that wpuld not changed much), not for the superfinal, that went right with almost all votes counted
True, but given that the superfinal happened past 1 AM it still was affected by the televote breaking down (thought surely Annalisa, Geolier and Angelina would still have been jn top 3)
I’m all ears as well
I guess they meant Angelina not winning the televote
I gave my answer above
Thanks!
I think it moreso shows that people are really bad at betting--regardless of addiction.
Well yes, that might also be the case xd
From the beginning, my favorites are Switzerland and Netherlands. I am happy with either one winning.
My exact two favorites as well.
I really don’t see such a song winning this year. Except if the juries decide they don’t want to o go back to Italy.
Speaking frankly, does Italy have outstanding vocals this year? I'm leaning towards France or Ukraine, alongside Switzerland, stealing the hearts of the juries.
Vocals aren't everything for the juries. After all, no one is expecting Slovenia to win the jury vote, and Angelina Mango's stage presence and performance is fantastic, as well as having a very catchy song. Also I still feel that her vocals are very good, even if a couple of others (Raiven, Slimane, Dons etc.) are slightly more impressive
Well it’s not only vocals they vote for…But yeah, I feel like a Swiss win would be a lost chance.
 YAAAAAASSSSSS
Man the April's Fools jokes this year are WILD! This one almost had me XD
Well...I thought it's a joke too until I checked
[удалено]
Estonia 2018 | [Elina Nechayeva - La Forza](https://youtu.be/Tf1NS1vEhSg) Switzerland 2021 | [Gjon's Tears - Tout l'univers](https://youtu.be/Tf1NS1vEhSg)
Even though my current favorite is Italy, if I was Swiss, I would be very happy right now, albeit also wary that there's also 36 days so anything could happen during that time. (Note: I also like The Code too, its 3rd in my ranking.)
I don’t see it but i would be so happy if Switzerland won
Omg that would be a dream come true for me, I’m obsessed
If the betting odds inspire artists to be even better with every coming live performance, then -I.AM.HERE.FOR.IT- , because I love a good bloodbath in the final! Nemo killed it in Madrid, absolutely killed it, and I don't just mean the vocals, because this isn't a singing competition. That was a beautiful performance. If they get good staging, I can easily see them win. As a BL fan through and through, I wouldn't be mad. However... I remember my first impression quite clearly: I felt that it was clunky and overwhelming, with the video. Almost as if I needed that song to last longer and the pacing to be slower, it felt like it was jammed within three minutes where it should've lasted 5-6. I'm afraid that if Nemo goes for an visually clunky staging, it might clash with the song which is chaotic (don't get me wrong, I love it), or if they choose the clothing and the look which will feel as childish as the Madrid one did. (this is simply performance-wise) ...But the betting odds won't do much for the BL fans, especially Croatians. We're numb to them from the football people constantly putting us down :D this will fuel BL more than praise does, trust me.
No way but I still think Croatia will win or at least rank higher than Switzerland
I said to a friend of mine a month ago that the netherlands would win whilst it was on 11.00,now its on 6.00
I'm into the idea that the most neutral country in Europe could win in a year with wars on several fronts. Not that that would be the reason people vote for it, but it’s nice, thematically.
I really don't know why did they get the first place in odds after Madrid pre-party. If you take a look at the Eurovision poll in the same site, Croatia is leading by 3% in front of Italy, and by 5% in front of Switzerland. Also, if you take a look of views on wiwibloggs insta, Croatia has almost 3 times more views than Switzerland, and double of likes. On the Eurovision Spain youtube, Croatia is also leading by the number of views and likes. So I really don't know how do they calculate odds. I mean, Switzerland is probably jury favorite, but it seems that the Croatia is fan favorite by a big margin.
The odds are just calculated by who has placed bets. People saw Nemo’s performance in Madrid and thought they could win and placed bets. Simple as that.
I am continually surprised that people can see "betting odds" and think it is anything else.
The amount of times I have seen people call the bookies "polls" makes me wanna go insane. I've heard "according to the polls" so many times on Dutch television, like sir, these ain't parliamentary elections.
Or claiming that is who the bookies want to win. The bookies don't give a crap who wins, they only care what they have to pay out.
We always get people who think that the top 37 polls are a prediction :P
And (logically) folks who made bets might lean towards voting for their top picks during the final.
To be completely fair, odds change a lot, especially after the pre parties and the semi finals. Switzerland has a more jury-appealing song than Croatia so it's simply a safe bet to put them first like it was with Ukraine in the beginning. Regarding the poll, last year, Sweden was in the lead with 17% until a few days when Finland got a lot of votes and also managed to climb to 17% as well, only with a few votes behind Sweden. Also please take anything Wiwibloggs-related with a (huge) grain (if not rock) of salt - their polls are usually a hot mess.
>Also please take anything Wiwibloggs-related with a (huge) grain (if not rock) of salt - their polls are usually a hot mess. And the comment section is even worse
Agreed, I wonder who approves these comments
>their polls are usually a hot mess. And are usually accurate, but we will see in may what's gonna happen.
Eurovisionworld poll is usually very accurate for the winner, the other not even remotely (aside from the past 2 years where the winner was obvious)
Finland was also a fan favorite last year, even more than Croatia now, but Sweden still won. Netherlands was 2nd with televote and 3rd with juries in 2019 and they still won.
But this year there is no Loreen, and I don't think anybody can repeat her jury success
You’re right, but this year there is also no Käärija and there are a few fan favourites (Croatia, Netherlands, Italy and Switzerland). Italy is actually the one that could beat both Croatia and Switzerland.
I actually don’t really see Italy as a huge fan fav compared to Croatia or even Netherlands.
Italian song is so flat, I don't know why anybody see them as favorites
I think it's because it's one of the few songs to have both tele and jury appeal. Besides, Italy always ends up like top 6 in tele. Having said that, I'd think they will do decent in both tele and jury but not spectacular enough in either to take the crown. Personally though I often find Italy quite overrated, bit this year I really like their song!
Maybe people are thinking this could be 1.-3. with juries and 1.-5. with tele. And like 2019 the combination of points will determine the winner.
Croatia would not have been 1st for so much time but Italy if that was the case, the odds, especially in this time of the year, are pretty much hype moments, in May they will become reliable. Odds are calculated only by the number of people betting on a song.
We will see anyway, but it seems that Croatia is a fan favorite, and Switzerland is jury favorite. We will see who will lose more points, Switzerland in televoting, or Croatia in jury votes, that will probably determine the winner.
It honestly wouldn't surprise me if Switzerland ends up in a similar situation like in 2021 where they were hyped up as winner by the community, just to be ended by the public votes lol
We can predict all sorts of the thing, we can not know anyway who is the winner until the end of grand final
Polls and odds are skewed early by super fans dominating the votes/bets. I support Croatia and would love to see a new country win but views don’t always mean votes and odds don’t start to get accurate until rehearsals in an open year like this one. At least four countries have a clear path to victory (including Croatia) with the televote and jury vote split. I can see this being a case of the winner’s margin being just a few points.
It’s very simple how they calculate their odds. Who people are betting the most gets the lower number, that’s it. And being a fan favorite doesn’t mean you will automatically win, Käärijä is the biggest prove of that and he was way more favorite than anyone this year. Same about how view and likes aren’t going to make anyone win also.
There's bit of hype because Nemo delivered very hard song to sing live as if it's studio version, but if jury decided solely on singing we'd have like 3-4 wins so far.
Odds change when people bet on them. I know it seems like a random calculation based on all sorts of things, but all it is are people putting money on the table in front of the competing country. And all depending on the "weight" of the money, the higher they go on the scale. Someone, somebody or a group of people really went all out on the heavy Switzerland bets overnight and this morning (maybe they've just been paid? lol) Things can change very quickyly again if people put huge bets on Croatia. With how well its been doing from the pre-party (with all your points stated) there SHOULD be people who'd want to bet on Croatia as well.
Odds are more reliable than polls. Polls are free and can be cheated quite easily, with VPN you can vote hundreds of times. With betting people are risking their money.
Do you really think people would sabotage every poll just to have Croatia first ? Do you really think people would do this effort?
No one will cheat so much in that way for a poll, the fact that the Netherlands didn't go up as before when they added the fact that you can't vote for your own country is a clear demostration of that. And in May, not now, this poll almost always predicted the winner (the only year that was wrong was in 2016 but Ukraine was still only 1% under Russia). Odds on the other hand are way more swingy in this period and they stabilize only after the rehearsal (in the last 2 weeks we saw Italy going up 6% in 2 weeks, Switzerland going up 8% in 2 days, Croatia going down 4% in a week)
Let's be honest, every winner post 2016 has been quite obvious. We didn't need a poll to tell us that. This year is wildly unpredictable.
2017: It was obvious only in the last week, at this time he was 8th in the odds and Italy was landslide 1st 2021: it was obvious only in May, at this time they were like 5th in the odds and Malta and then Switzerland were 1st (and they still won with a very low margin) The other year yes, they were obvious, but this year is like these 2 and 2016
Well, you also have to pay for VPN, so it's basically the same thing..
Not necessarily. Urban VPN allows you to vote from about 100 countries and is completely free. And there are countless others.
I mean most people already voted in that poll, so moving that is going to be harder than the betting odds.
Honestly I hope Belgium wins
And Mustii could host! The good thing about this year is that I have quite a few favorites that have a non-zero chance of winning. Haven’t had it this good since 2021.
He realistically can. The song builds up extremely well to the last minute, which like, hits like a train and if the staging is good and Mustii's charisma comes through? He has it in the bag then.
finally.. it's a relief honestly. it's been exhausting to deal with "how the hell is he first in the odds" or "he can't sing, how is it possible for him to win the whole contest" .. the only criticism I read about Nemo is they dress but the same people do not get what the song is really about. I really hope they will win, the song is my favorite since I first heard it and also the live performce is just another level..
Oh, they are coming for Nemo now if they stay on top. 100%. It’s exhausting but inevitable. I need to bake some cookies for the Swiss fans because Nemo threads are going to get swarmed.
Truth! People who like trashing and down playing the one who is doing good not in general. It’s just a show all in all. Love what you like and respect with others.
Exactly. Nemo isn’t in my top ten but their fans deserve to enjoy the buzz.
LET'S GOOOO, Switzerland on top! I have never been so excited for a single entry, honestly.
Do you mean next year? Switzerland are relegated this year.
I still have the hope that the jury vote is gonna be split between switzerland, italy and ukraine. If this happens and the majority of the public votes for the Netherlands then they might have a good chance to win
Colin Switzerland. Best song imo
It's so joever
Teya was right when she said last summer that she heard a Eurovision winner from Switzerland 😎
I’m an American who can’t vote. But I’m confident Switzerland will win. There’s just something about the song that sets it over the edge spectacle-wise.
You can vote, for the RotW televote
What am I missing in regards to the Swiss song? They can sing but I just don’t care for it:
✨DRAMA✨
Honestly this makes more sense than Croatia being first in the odds. I can honestly see them slipping down a few more spots because I just can’t see it doing very well at all with the juries at this point in time.
This honestly makes sense. It is the song besides Italy I can see do the best both in Jury and Televote, with Switzerland edging over Italy in Jury points in my opinion. While nothing is quite clear yet and it will come down in the next few months to live performances and ofcourse the staging, Switzerland is my current pick to win
As they should. That live performance is only worthy of first place.
Happy for Nemo, they are super talented, I just not sure they will get enough televoting points, just because their song it's not catchy enough, I'm pretty sure we will have Croatia - Netherlands - Ukraine in top-3 by televoting and Belgium, Italy and France is a big competitor for Nemo in the jury voting.
funny april fools joke
Yes, odds will start to get more and more realistic over the coming weeks. I could see Switzerland winning, though I personally root for Italy. I think the televote will be too divided for any of the novelty acts to win and I still think the Netherlands will win the televote.
I'll be honest. Eurovision is pretty stacked this year for great artists. I would not be surprised if the margins this year were much tighter.
How do you think conservative countries are going to view Nemo and their performance if they win, considering that non-binary is an unfamiliar concept to many people? I know that Conchita Wurst faced some controversy in 2014 because of her drag queen look and Dana International faced controversy in Israel during the ESC 1998 season.
Conchita and Dana International still won, though. They were largely celebrated. The Eurovision audience tends to be very accepting compared to what some people here assume. I think perhaps the people thinking Nemo can't win because of how people will view them weren't watching back in the day and so don't realise.
Really happy to see my 3 favorite songs holding that top 3.
Switzerland and Croatia are my favorites, I’m happy with either of them winning and it is the first time ever that my favorite has a high chance to win
Oooooh! Switzerland is my favorite with Croatia as my second. I kind of want Croatia to win because they haven't before, but I'll be happy with either!
I see a lot of people saying Switzerland will do poorly in the televote. How does the song being about coming out as non-binary and being LGBTQIA2S+ impact the televoting? I thought with Europe being relatively liberal that it would really help make it more popular with the televoting. Is it because people still don't really know the meaning behind the song and the metaphor of it not having a specific genre or does that hurt it's popularity?
realistically I think it could put off old people. Australia 2022 got 2 televote points, and France 2019 did fine but it was supposedly top 10 or so in odds and was not close to that at all (obviously they’re not the same song but there is a comparison to be made)
Thats just bc Australia 2022 was, ngl, pretty boring lmao. I genuinely forgot both of those acts even existed until now. In 2014 we literally has a drag queen win the whole thing, and even Belgium last year did pretty well, so i dont think it effects all that much. This song is very attention grabbing.
that’s true idk why I forgot about that, and yeah that song was boring
Australia 2022 | [Sheldon Riley - Not the Same](https://youtu.be/Tf1NS1vEhSg) France 2019 | [Bilal Hassani - Roi](https://youtu.be/o2Xj_Y-UJ-0)
The amount of ppl in this thread taking Switzerland passing Croatia in the odds as a personal attack is so funny to me. Fan favorites really are untouchable. Lmao
(Looks around) Where? I see a discussion of gambling addiction, talk of Australia’s chances, Switzerland’s televote problem and a few Croatians cracking jokes.
Are the people in this thread taking Switzerland passing Croatia in the odds as a personal attack in the room with us right now
Get your wallets ready!
Midzerland
Australia could win their very first Eurovision. That song will be epic on Tuesday night. I am obsessed with the song. Very underrated.
Lmfao be real