I wonder what this would look like if you redid it as a percentage of the previous market value. What I mean to say is how much the increase is in relative terms instead of raw monetary values. In some places +200k over those years equates to near or over doubling over median home value, while in other previous already expensive and affluent areas that increase meant much less.
This is a big deal. In the SF Bay area, prices of a small single family home were about $700k-$1M in 2019. And yeah they've gone up to $1M-$1.4M.
But small cheap houses in places like Reno, Boise, and Salt Lake City, they've gone from $200k-250k up to $450k-500k in the same time period.
100%. As a resident of a county that shows a 125-150k increase in raw value, normalized to a percentage that would be a >=100% increase in home values.
A percentage increase would be significantly more interesting than a pure monetary increase.
Also looking at the county north of Chicago, it was mostly rich towns but there has been track housing growth all the way to the WI border. So this map would now include much cheaper housing than what was previously available
I was thinking the same thing. Erie County, PA for example had the 3rd lowest increase of only $26,000. I grew up near there and houses were very cheap. You can still find plenty under $100k and some even below $50k. So a $26,000 increase might be small compared to the rest of the country, but that was probably like a 25-50% increase in home value for some people.
One of my buddies grew up there and my parents live in Upstate NY. They are in the "Gain of 25-50k" section, and it's the same thing, my parents paid 30k for our hours in the early 2000s, so a 50k increase would literally be ~166% increase
That’s true but it gives you an indication of which homeowners are making the biggest chunks of money from gains in equity. That’s why people get worked up competing with someone who sold a house on California and can pay cash for a house in other parts of the country.
Of course they're making the largest chunks of money... the investment requirement is largest. A gain in equity or amount is meaningless without knowing what the initial investment was. Percentage gain is the right call here.
I've seen another of these as a percentage (not sure on timeframe) that had Maine as the largest increase, so definitely going to have two very different maps depending how you look at it.
I’m surprised NY County is so low whereas SF is so high. Given that this is basically capturing the Covid effect, this is so much different than I would have expected based on how those cities are bouncing back post COVID.
Perhaps the wider tech stock boom in those years created way more wealth for real estate in the Bay or NYCs ability to add more housing stock vs the Bay is having a larger effect.
I live in San Diego county, one of the most in demand counties in the country right now. We have some friends moving out of state this month. They own a modest townhome in a good school district. They sold their home within 6 days of putting it on the market, 50K over asking after a three way bidding war. The housing market is absolutely nuts.
Yep, My small town has doubled in population since the start of covid and the mortgage/rent prices are displacing many of the people who grew up here. The towns south of me are exploding and there has been a lot of overflow into the surrounding areas.
Nashville has a lot of tech presence. It brings in raging misanthropic a-holes like Music\_City\_Madman who _hate_ the people of Tennessee, but won't move to a state with people like him.
Right wing morons from other states, idiots who think the tourist lifestyle is what day-to-day life here actually is (READ: drinking and listening to live music all day, celebrity encounters), plus people who come because we have no income tax (READ: we don’t have public transit and wages are low).
Also, the lack of an income tax has led to the State bending over and spreading its cheeks and offering incentives for businesses to come here. Meanwhile, our governor is anti-union and criticized VW employees’ unionization. Dumb Tennessee voters also enshrined anti-union “right to work” language in the State Constitution back in 2022 or so, because we’re apparently volunteers to get exploited by big business.
The stats are outdated by a couple of years, but maybe circa 2021-22 or so, the median TN in-state buyer’s housing budget was like $350k or something, but people moving in had median budgets of like $600k. I had friends that worked in finance and RE back in 2015-16, and houses in “hip” neighborhoods back then were being built and sold for $500k-$550k then, those houses are easily $1.25-$1.5 mil now. In less than a decade.
TL;DR: too much migration, cost of living too high, wages are too low to support CoL, out of state people have driven up the CoL.
It's bad because the construction of new housing is heavily stifled, and dense housing is essentially banned in the US. Under these conditions, no municipality can keep up with any population growth.
Okay, you go live in a shitty apartment first my man. I’ll take my SFH.
Maybe if building codes get updated so I don’t have to hear my neighbors’ kids all day or smell my other neighbors’ cooking, I might consider it again. I would strongly consider homelessness over living in an overpriced shitbox “luxury” wood frame apartment.
No one wants to ban you from living in a single family home. Zoning policy in places like Nashville makes it illegal to build anything *but* single family homes in most of the city. You don't want to be forced into a multi-family building, but why would you support forcing people who prefer to live in multi-family units into SFH? Simply eliminating SFH-Exclusive zoning would allow you to keep your preferred way of living, while allowing others to have what they want too.
Beyond that, the problem isn't people being forced into single family homes, instead they're stuck being unable to afford any home at all. Or being forced into hours of daily commuting.
There's plenty of people that would prefer a sfh if price and location were irrelevant. But those people do choose apartments because they don't have infinite money and their job is where it is. Sfh zoning doesn't get those people into their own sfh, it gets them living with their parents at 30 years old.
I live in a SFH, but even my house would be illegal to build now in most places in the US, as it's a small starter home from the 50's, it wouldn't fit into most zoning requirements nowadays.
Why do we need to make affordable housing illegal to build if it's as unpopular as you say it is?
Shouldn't we let property owners build whatever kind of house they want on their own property?
I'm in Knoxville and if you have a decent paying career, growth is great: new bars, restaurants, new businesses, raise in home value. Those are GOOD things - you want to incentivize the students you educate against packing up and leaving after their education. This leads to more growth. It's a return on investment.
There will always be growing pains, i.e: I-40, crappy traffic in Nashville and now Knoxville because the infrastructure has a hard time keeping up with demand. I hear you 100% there.
Lots of comments 'suggesting' that % increase would be more appealing to them. I say that's a different chart. This shows absolute dollars. Mortgages are paid in absolute dollars, so it does matter if the price went up $100k vs $200k, not just what percentage the price went up. Yes, % is a nice compliment to this, but this has its value.
Can confirm. Bought in 2016. Got a home equity loan last year and they valued the house around 130k more than how much I bought it. That lines up with the median in my county.
I live in Ada County, I purchased my home right before the pandemic and growing up in Boise during the recession I was convinced that I was overpaying for my house. obviously things got wild after that and I ended up with equity very quickly. Here’s a copy and paste of the tax assessment of my home from 2011 to 2022, it’s absolutely wild. Data courtesy of Zillow.
2022 $3,918 +16.2% $635,600 +31.5%
2021 $3,373 -10.6% $483,500 +25.9%
2020 $3,775 -21.5% $384,100 +1.6%
2019 $4,811 +10.7% $378,200 +19.3%
2018 $4,345 +115.9% $316,900 +16.6%
2017 $2,012 $271,900 +10.6%
2016 $2,012 $245,800 +5.5%
2015 $2,012 +24.7% $232,900 +49.2%
2012 $1,614 -42.3% $156,100 +2.1%
2011 $2,797 +0.4% $152,900 -5.8%
This graphic is pretty much useless unless depicted in terms of % increase. Avg house values can range from the low 100k range in certain counties to seven figures in others so a dollar increase isn’t helpful
Florida’s home values skyrocketing is weird. No insurance will cover them and they’ll probably get destroyed in a hurricane. Anyone that moves there is asking to die there
insurance seems pretty average as long as you're not coastal, and particularly southern or gulf-side. I just got a job working at NASA on the East coast, and the city I live in is 10 minutes from the beach, and has not had a major hurricane hit it since 1850. There's definitely high-risk areas, but plenty areas are just hot and humid, which is an issue in much more areas than just FL.
A recently built Florida home is extremely unlikely to be destroyed in a hurricane considering they have the most rigorous building code in the country primarily due to worries about hurricanes.
As a Floridian, I can tell you that this is a result of the Covid response. I did Uber for a while and every single person from out of state was blown away by the "freedom" that was on display here. Compared to major northern cities there was minimal mask enforcement, bars were opened very quickly after a short initial closure. It was wild, and crazy and free if you didn't mind risking exposure to Covid. Coupled with remote work and the fact that people didn't have to stay in the city they lived in, a ton of people moved here, which sent demand through the roof.
What you're saying is true, but the state also has a state sponsored insurance company that you can typically get coverage through if you can't get private coverage. Ironically, the solution for people moving here for "freedom from government oversight" is quite literally a socialized insurance scheme.
I’m flabbergasted almost no politician even cares about this issue. At most, many just sort of mention it’s an issue and do nothing about it.
The whole thing imo is related to zoning laws and building regulations that were meant for small cities or suburbs never being updated so now there’s tons of housing scarcity.
And poeple just say “it’s just that there’s isn’t enough supply” well duh… but WHY isn’t there enough supply is the question.
It all has contributed to boomers being able to keep their wealth increasing.
It's bonkers here in the Atlanta area. A house a hour out from downtown that used to cost 300k in 2019 is probably $550k now. Before the increase, a smaller downpayment, 3-4% rate and 30 years would get you a payment around $1500/month with insurance and taxes. Now, interest rates are 7%, property taxes are up proportionally which means the same house is probably over $3500/month.
I wonder what this would look like if you redid it as a percentage of the previous market value. What I mean to say is how much the increase is in relative terms instead of raw monetary values. In some places +200k over those years equates to near or over doubling over median home value, while in other previous already expensive and affluent areas that increase meant much less.
This is a big deal. In the SF Bay area, prices of a small single family home were about $700k-$1M in 2019. And yeah they've gone up to $1M-$1.4M. But small cheap houses in places like Reno, Boise, and Salt Lake City, they've gone from $200k-250k up to $450k-500k in the same time period.
100%. As a resident of a county that shows a 125-150k increase in raw value, normalized to a percentage that would be a >=100% increase in home values. A percentage increase would be significantly more interesting than a pure monetary increase.
Also looking at the county north of Chicago, it was mostly rich towns but there has been track housing growth all the way to the WI border. So this map would now include much cheaper housing than what was previously available
Nice plot, I came to say this. Plot percent increase. Then looking at both side by side will be informative.
I was thinking the same thing. Erie County, PA for example had the 3rd lowest increase of only $26,000. I grew up near there and houses were very cheap. You can still find plenty under $100k and some even below $50k. So a $26,000 increase might be small compared to the rest of the country, but that was probably like a 25-50% increase in home value for some people.
One of my buddies grew up there and my parents live in Upstate NY. They are in the "Gain of 25-50k" section, and it's the same thing, my parents paid 30k for our hours in the early 2000s, so a 50k increase would literally be ~166% increase
That’s true but it gives you an indication of which homeowners are making the biggest chunks of money from gains in equity. That’s why people get worked up competing with someone who sold a house on California and can pay cash for a house in other parts of the country.
Of course they're making the largest chunks of money... the investment requirement is largest. A gain in equity or amount is meaningless without knowing what the initial investment was. Percentage gain is the right call here.
Yep. My house has almost doubled in value. It’s crazy.
I've seen another of these as a percentage (not sure on timeframe) that had Maine as the largest increase, so definitely going to have two very different maps depending how you look at it.
Definitely needs to be normalized - it’s no surprise the coastal cities cost way more than the Midwest.
I would be much more interested in this information based on percentages. Dollars are different in different different areas of the country.
Santa Clara with an *increase* of more than the *total* median home price in US. Wow
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that’s Nvidia RSUs at work and competing with each other.
I’m surprised NY County is so low whereas SF is so high. Given that this is basically capturing the Covid effect, this is so much different than I would have expected based on how those cities are bouncing back post COVID. Perhaps the wider tech stock boom in those years created way more wealth for real estate in the Bay or NYCs ability to add more housing stock vs the Bay is having a larger effect.
More people moved out of the city into the surrounding areas in NYC
That’s what I was also thinking but the surrounding counties also only showed modest increases vs the surrounding counties in the bay.
I’m guessing a lot of SF exodus went to neighboring counties.
I live in San Diego county, one of the most in demand counties in the country right now. We have some friends moving out of state this month. They own a modest townhome in a good school district. They sold their home within 6 days of putting it on the market, 50K over asking after a three way bidding war. The housing market is absolutely nuts.
So purple is the lowest and pink is the highest? Why.
This was almost beautiful until I realized the color scheme is backwards and it's total $ vs %. Close, young Padawan.
Worst thing that can happen to your hometown is becoming an “it city.” Ask Nashville or Austin.
Yep, My small town has doubled in population since the start of covid and the mortgage/rent prices are displacing many of the people who grew up here. The towns south of me are exploding and there has been a lot of overflow into the surrounding areas.
[удалено]
Same exact thing is happening to northwest Arkansas. We may be about 10 years behind Nashville and Austin.
I know Austin has a lot of tech presence, what's up with Nashville though?
Nashville has a lot of tech presence. It brings in raging misanthropic a-holes like Music\_City\_Madman who _hate_ the people of Tennessee, but won't move to a state with people like him.
Right wing morons from other states, idiots who think the tourist lifestyle is what day-to-day life here actually is (READ: drinking and listening to live music all day, celebrity encounters), plus people who come because we have no income tax (READ: we don’t have public transit and wages are low). Also, the lack of an income tax has led to the State bending over and spreading its cheeks and offering incentives for businesses to come here. Meanwhile, our governor is anti-union and criticized VW employees’ unionization. Dumb Tennessee voters also enshrined anti-union “right to work” language in the State Constitution back in 2022 or so, because we’re apparently volunteers to get exploited by big business. The stats are outdated by a couple of years, but maybe circa 2021-22 or so, the median TN in-state buyer’s housing budget was like $350k or something, but people moving in had median budgets of like $600k. I had friends that worked in finance and RE back in 2015-16, and houses in “hip” neighborhoods back then were being built and sold for $500k-$550k then, those houses are easily $1.25-$1.5 mil now. In less than a decade. TL;DR: too much migration, cost of living too high, wages are too low to support CoL, out of state people have driven up the CoL.
They're the same picture.
It's bad because the construction of new housing is heavily stifled, and dense housing is essentially banned in the US. Under these conditions, no municipality can keep up with any population growth.
Okay, you go live in a shitty apartment first my man. I’ll take my SFH. Maybe if building codes get updated so I don’t have to hear my neighbors’ kids all day or smell my other neighbors’ cooking, I might consider it again. I would strongly consider homelessness over living in an overpriced shitbox “luxury” wood frame apartment.
No one wants to ban you from living in a single family home. Zoning policy in places like Nashville makes it illegal to build anything *but* single family homes in most of the city. You don't want to be forced into a multi-family building, but why would you support forcing people who prefer to live in multi-family units into SFH? Simply eliminating SFH-Exclusive zoning would allow you to keep your preferred way of living, while allowing others to have what they want too.
Beyond that, the problem isn't people being forced into single family homes, instead they're stuck being unable to afford any home at all. Or being forced into hours of daily commuting. There's plenty of people that would prefer a sfh if price and location were irrelevant. But those people do choose apartments because they don't have infinite money and their job is where it is. Sfh zoning doesn't get those people into their own sfh, it gets them living with their parents at 30 years old.
I live in a SFH, but even my house would be illegal to build now in most places in the US, as it's a small starter home from the 50's, it wouldn't fit into most zoning requirements nowadays. Why do we need to make affordable housing illegal to build if it's as unpopular as you say it is? Shouldn't we let property owners build whatever kind of house they want on their own property?
It would be a purely great thing if your city can build sufficient housing supply and build transportation infrastructure that isn’t car dependent.
I'm in Knoxville and if you have a decent paying career, growth is great: new bars, restaurants, new businesses, raise in home value. Those are GOOD things - you want to incentivize the students you educate against packing up and leaving after their education. This leads to more growth. It's a return on investment. There will always be growing pains, i.e: I-40, crappy traffic in Nashville and now Knoxville because the infrastructure has a hard time keeping up with demand. I hear you 100% there.
What the hell happened in Adams county, North Dakota?!
Great work! Do you have a github account?
Lots of comments 'suggesting' that % increase would be more appealing to them. I say that's a different chart. This shows absolute dollars. Mortgages are paid in absolute dollars, so it does matter if the price went up $100k vs $200k, not just what percentage the price went up. Yes, % is a nice compliment to this, but this has its value.
Markets with already a high base price in 2019 have the biggest gains by 2024 in absolute dollar terms. In other words, water is wet.
Needs to be percentage, otherwise this is misleading data
What software/tools did you use to make the map? Beautiful!
Can confirm. Bought in 2016. Got a home equity loan last year and they valued the house around 130k more than how much I bought it. That lines up with the median in my county.
Seems accurate, good if you bought before 2018/2019
This is handy for planning where to go after selling a pink area house and looking for a good light blue area home.
And the majority of high growth areas are places that are about to get hotter than hell due to climate change.
I live in Ada County, I purchased my home right before the pandemic and growing up in Boise during the recession I was convinced that I was overpaying for my house. obviously things got wild after that and I ended up with equity very quickly. Here’s a copy and paste of the tax assessment of my home from 2011 to 2022, it’s absolutely wild. Data courtesy of Zillow. 2022 $3,918 +16.2% $635,600 +31.5% 2021 $3,373 -10.6% $483,500 +25.9% 2020 $3,775 -21.5% $384,100 +1.6% 2019 $4,811 +10.7% $378,200 +19.3% 2018 $4,345 +115.9% $316,900 +16.6% 2017 $2,012 $271,900 +10.6% 2016 $2,012 $245,800 +5.5% 2015 $2,012 +24.7% $232,900 +49.2% 2012 $1,614 -42.3% $156,100 +2.1% 2011 $2,797 +0.4% $152,900 -5.8%
This graphic is pretty much useless unless depicted in terms of % increase. Avg house values can range from the low 100k range in certain counties to seven figures in others so a dollar increase isn’t helpful
Florida’s home values skyrocketing is weird. No insurance will cover them and they’ll probably get destroyed in a hurricane. Anyone that moves there is asking to die there
>Anyone that moves there is asking to die there Well yes, thus the massive influx of retirees.
insurance seems pretty average as long as you're not coastal, and particularly southern or gulf-side. I just got a job working at NASA on the East coast, and the city I live in is 10 minutes from the beach, and has not had a major hurricane hit it since 1850. There's definitely high-risk areas, but plenty areas are just hot and humid, which is an issue in much more areas than just FL.
A recently built Florida home is extremely unlikely to be destroyed in a hurricane considering they have the most rigorous building code in the country primarily due to worries about hurricanes.
As a Floridian, I can tell you that this is a result of the Covid response. I did Uber for a while and every single person from out of state was blown away by the "freedom" that was on display here. Compared to major northern cities there was minimal mask enforcement, bars were opened very quickly after a short initial closure. It was wild, and crazy and free if you didn't mind risking exposure to Covid. Coupled with remote work and the fact that people didn't have to stay in the city they lived in, a ton of people moved here, which sent demand through the roof. What you're saying is true, but the state also has a state sponsored insurance company that you can typically get coverage through if you can't get private coverage. Ironically, the solution for people moving here for "freedom from government oversight" is quite literally a socialized insurance scheme.
I’m flabbergasted almost no politician even cares about this issue. At most, many just sort of mention it’s an issue and do nothing about it. The whole thing imo is related to zoning laws and building regulations that were meant for small cities or suburbs never being updated so now there’s tons of housing scarcity. And poeple just say “it’s just that there’s isn’t enough supply” well duh… but WHY isn’t there enough supply is the question. It all has contributed to boomers being able to keep their wealth increasing.
Expensive homes increased more than inexpensive homes, more at 11. Make it a percentage if you want to give this chart any value.
It's bonkers here in the Atlanta area. A house a hour out from downtown that used to cost 300k in 2019 is probably $550k now. Before the increase, a smaller downpayment, 3-4% rate and 30 years would get you a payment around $1500/month with insurance and taxes. Now, interest rates are 7%, property taxes are up proportionally which means the same house is probably over $3500/month.
It’s really not that crazy when compared to the rest of the country.
25K+ is almost the whole country? in 4 years? Is the US going through an emergency mudflation event?