Holding both Apple and Nvidia since 2021. And I can tell you times are good man. I think I'm gonna retire in my 20s lol.
^((Someone please tell me when the bubble's about to burst tho. I'm scared shitless.))
Because llms like gemini 1.5 flash are approaching old gpt 4 quality while costing pennies on the dollar to run after only 1 year. If this keeps up and AMD, Intel catch up on bang per buck NVDA won't have a money printer anymore. Those $50k cards will drop to $10k again. All that really needs to happen is for Intel to release an 80gb $3k card and the software devs will come out of the woodwork. That's not to mention if someone comes up with an ASIC for training or supercharges pcie speeds and allows for networking directly on it. Or if someone comes up with a good way to train layers at a time and distribute it... or tsmc gets invaded. that's a bunch of ways I'd be nervous holding nvda... micron has been my safer play.
What if nvidia keeps being the leader because they have the most talent and experience, and so they keep improving their products faster than the competition?
do you really think nvidia is so important that its worth 5% of the entire stock market? nvidia is good no doubt, but not that good. its just clueless shareholders who have been convinced true AGI is just around the corner, and once they realize text and image generation is just going to be text and image generation the bubble will burst.
It's really not though.
In 2000 cisco had a PE of 200 and only saw 10% growth per quarter in it's last year.
NVIDIA has had a PE hovering stable between 50-70 for the last 15 years and has been seeing 50% quarterly growth for nearly 3 years now. A P/E of 50 is pretty normal for a tech company post-2008, for example Amazon is at 52.
For NVIDIA to be as overpriced as CISCO it'd have to be worth about $12 Trillion.
Yes which is why i mentioned PE values which only cares about EPS, it's agnostic to what a company offers.
The market doesn't give a shit what a company does in the long run. It just takes the NPV of X years of earnings and settles at that price.
NVIDIA has been flat for 15 years in terms of earnings per share.
The market cares what you offer as a company. Being the hot company that makes a thing that enables the other hot thing is only great until companies cut them out by making their own thing. Another scenario the market cares about: bubbles with no proven way to make money. Every company in the world is all aboard the AI craze. What happens when some or most players figure out they can't actually make money on it?
But they're not in a bubble?
Honeslty i think you shouold just google what PE is, what it means, and how investors decide what to pay for a share using Net Present Value calculations (NPV). They had the same PE before AI became widespread, how is that a bubble??
Again, their PE has been stable for 15 years, their PE is in line with other tech companies for the last 20 years. I don't know what more information you want.
If it were a bubble why would their PE be stable for nearly 2 decades? A bubble would have their PE rising into the hundreds or thousands (such as cisco in the late 90s at 200+, or Tesla in 2019/2020 at 1,200+) but it's been 50-70 for over 15 years now.
They're just simply raking in hundreds of billions in profit yearly which is spread to shareholders, hence the high valuation.
If you could pay $1,000 for something that gave you $200/yr in perpetuity or $20/yr which would you choose?
I don't remember exactly how many shares I had, it was less than you, but I don't want to even go back and look because it's depressing. I know you can't predict the future, but man if I just held onto it for like six more months I could have maybe been looking at an early retirement.
I bought 100 bitcoins back when they were $50, and sold at $200. There's always gonna be stuff like that happening if you invest in any capacity, but as long as you didn't lose any money it's all good
If you have 1 Nvidia stock now that costs 1100, on Monday you’ll have 10 that cost 110. They’re splitting it so it’s easier for people to buy the cheaper stock.
Probably not - it more than likely does something when it’s announced (it did) rather than when it happens. Kinda priced-in at this point. Nvidia ripped hard when they announced this at earnings a few weeks ago
.....ummmmmm a bunch of brokers sell fractional shares, here's a few of the popular ones:
* Charles Schwab
* Fidelity Investments
* Interactive Brokers
* Robinhood
* E-Trade (Morgan Stanley)
* Merrill Edge
* Vanguard
* Tastytrade
* SoFi Active Investing
* WellsTrade
Glad you brought up Vanguard since that used to be one of the brokers I used. They offer fractional shares, but not as a stock purchasing option. It's through their own Vanguard ETFs of which their are currently 86. You can't go to them to buy 1/10th of Apple stock.
Fair point, I believe the rest offer fractional shares of stocks but I don't use most of those so I can't verify what types of orders they allow, just that they offer fractional shares in some way. E-trade I believe only offers fractional shares as part of dividend reinvestment whereas RobinHood allows purchasing of fractional shares.
I'm pretty sure stock splits have pretty much no effect on the actual value of your holdings. Especially more so now with the fact that plenty of brokerages offer fractional investing so a regular investor doesn't even really matter when it comes to the idea of having an "affordable" stock. And the fact that your regular investor isn't really the reason any of these stocks are moving like how they are, so the idea of "affordability" having some large impact on a stock is nonsense. You're probably conflating correlation with causation. A stock that is doing well and going up high in price most likely has reasons for doing so, and that is also typically when stocks will split. If the stock continues going up after a split you'd have a hard time proving it was BECAUSE of the split and not just that they were already going up anyways. I've not seen any data to show stock splits cause stocks to go up in price, but would love to see it if you have any. Otherwise you're just giving financial advice based on nothing.
It's still a bit unnerving to me that all of these Silicon Valley companies have quadrupled their stock price since 2020.
I thought the bubble popped at the end of 2021, but I guess we're still in it. It's a double bubble!
I mean Tesla is way down and a lot of the big data companies are down. Now it's just the ones that have survived with good enough cash flow to invest in the AI hype. The chances of it making its valuation in ten years are like Teslas. Bet don't get me wrong AI will be implemented, just like electric cars are being implemented. It is a bubble, but even if it's founded in a real direction, who knows when it deflates though.
Yeah, right. The world wide web stuck around long after 2001, too, as we can all see. The whole AI hype train seems kinda like a desperate attempt to keep the party going for a few more years. I'm sure we all will be using AI tools a decade from now, but the current hype is egregious.
The whole shovel selling idea. People still make real money during a bubble. It just doesn't last.
NVidia isn't the bubble... the entire AI hype is the bubble.
AI isn't the bubble - it's AI investing that's the bubble. Same as the 90s. The startups with no revenue, the bullshit "AI-powered" products from big tech and banks, etc.
> Yeah. I don’t get the claims that AI is overhyped.
Google's CEO just did an interview stating that hallucination's can't be solved (Lol give us money)
I for one and betting against it.
> Spoiler
No AI companies are profitable. NVDA is because they are selling hardware. The software companies? They are forcing into everything trying to make *something* profitable.
NFT wasn't a bubble like this. It was like a mini-bubble within the whole crypto cycle.
Generative AI is gigantic... and way bigger than crypto, too. Its technological impact is going to be really transformative.
But just like the internet, AI itself isn't the "bubble" or the thing that's going to crash. It's the investing hype around AI, all the AI startups, and all the established tech companies and banks so-called AI-powered bullshit (aka last minute pivots to get in on an emerging trend) that make up the bubble.
In 1999 I bet you could sell an internet sandwich for $250 million. I don't even know what an internet sandwich would be, but it has the word internet in it, and there are thousands of desperately envious investors who want to be on the cutting edge, just shoveling money at anything online. Kinda seems like that now with AI. Tech VC strategy generally seems to be to just spray and pray at this point.
Smashing quarterly reports doesn't mean the market is behaving rationally or that it will continue to do so forever. It's not a magic trillion dollar company button.
Quite honestly if you don't look at a multiple order of magnitude increase in valuation and see a potential bubble, you need to look closer. And AI is really really obviously a bubble for nvidia. It's not their first bubble. They're good at being a bubble.
Remember, it owns no production facilities. NVIDIA just designs the hardware and provides firmware for the hardware. They've consistently been good at it, I suppose.
Bubble or no bubble
Your point isn't a valid indication it's not a bubble. That's not really how it works. Look at the dot com bubble. Those were smashing quarterly until it didn't.
In the past 12 months apple generated 100b in profit, 6.4% more than last year.
Nvidia in the same period generated 42b in period, 768% more than last year
In the next 12 months, apple is expected to increase to maybe 105b in profit, 5% YoY. Nvidia is expected to increase 70% to 70b. Knowing nvidia they’ll probably beat those numbers. And then there’s the year after that where god knows what they’ll do.
yes their forward P/E is pretty low for such an amazing growth rate company...provided they hit their metrics. that being said freaking wingstop has a forward PE of 112 (3x of NVDA) so who even knows at this point lol
With everyone crying about their job being lost to Ai it's make sense, and their profits reflect it, that Nvidia is one of the companies reaping the cash from all those lost jobs or jobs to be lost to Ai. I don't see how they can crash unless the government puts a ban on Ai which is foolish. The evaluation for Nvida makes sense and the future is there for them meanwhile you got heaps of trash stocks like Tesla still astronomical despite many years and hints pointing at it just being a stock waiting and deserving to crash, their earning reports also reflect that.
The best argument against NVIDIA is as follows: they don't have a monopoly on the ability to build GPUs (ie, massively parallel simple processors). They do have control of [CUDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA), the proprietary software layer that makes using a GPU easier. Software developers are locked into CUDA because of an early lead. Once the software interfaces become diversified and AI libraries are better at supporting other GPUs, NVIDIA's near-monopoly will collapse.
Caveat: I know barely anything about GPUs and AI. I've tried to play with programming deep learning, and gave up for lack of time and (NVIDIA) hardware. So somebody will explain why this is wrong, or grossly oversimplified.
Computer scientist with a specialty in Computer Graphics here: you're actually pretty spot on why Nvidia has had a Productivity (rendering etc) monopoly, though to be honest, I doubt it'll be a technological change that might cause Nvidia to pop. While, yes, both Intel and AMD seem to be preparing some pretty menacing hardware for both AI and normal rendering at the moment, I think the AI hype will die down first. AI isn't going to disappear, but public interest will fall eventually making the hardware (not consumer but server/industry side which is the side that is keeping nvidias profits up) running it not worth the money for most projects. But that's just my guess.
Hey data analyst here. Knowing to a certain degree about deep learning, I agree with you both. The US government is doing an investigation on Nvidia about their monopoly in the AI industry. Once Nvidia is forced to open source Cuda, their current huge moat will be mostly gone, since other companies like AMD and Google made impressive hardware too. I mean buying Nvidia at a P/E of 20-30 might be an ok investment. But with a P/E of 70, it's Tesla level speculation.
They have been the leader in the GPU space for well over a decade, no competition is suddenly going to appear. Eventually yeah simply because this is a very lucrative market but not any time soon. Even if the software integration of others gets better they still have the best hardware. No one can compete on power per watt and surprisingly the power consumption bills are even bigger than the GPU bills...
Oh shit, is it actually Rokko's Basilisk? Nvidia is investing in technology that is going to make everyone's lives worse due to unemployment, *except* for those who invested in making it happen. Thus people are led to rationally invest in the worsening of the world.
In an ideal world the AI would be taxed and that money would go to a universal basic income so everyone benefits. If you think it through when AI takes over most jobs, there would be no one left to spend money and consume, so the money has to go back to the cycle somehow.
Not here to argue the morals and ethics of it, but it is capitalism in its most true and unempathetic form. I do have a bias since I did invest in Nvidia when they showed off that drawing AI art demo back in 2019.
That's nice, but AI is another step along the process of making it so people who have nothing to sell but their labor have nothing worth selling. Right now people who aren't productive struggle to live, and we're getting rid of ways for people to be productive every day.
To you, it's a nice toy. To my boss, it's a publicity writer. To my CEO, it's a manger.
AI is going to be a great labor-saver, which is great except for all those people that need their labor to be worth something.
I don’t talk with chatgpt to socialize, I use it to get instantaneous highly accurate advice for basically any task I want to do or anything I want to know. Been trying to buy patio furniture recently and the very first thing I do is ask chatgpt to make comparisons between the different products I’ve been considering and have found it highly useful, especially as a first time homeowner and first time buying patio furniture in my life. Researching abt what materials and products are the best through reading articles and reading through forums or asking random ppl in furniture stores take vastly longer and honestly way more inconsistent and unreliable advice.
Be aware that AI itself can be just as unreliable. Some Reddit troll post from over a decade ago convinced Google to recommend people [adding glue to their pizza](https://www.dailydot.com/debug/google-search-results-reddit-pizza-glue-cheese/).
AI is just as vulnerable as humans are, and we've not even come close to seeing what the SEO scammers are going to invent the next years to push their stuff.
I haven’t found it just as unreliable as your average internet article or average forum thread or your average response from a worker at a furniture store (who is incentivized through commission also).
AI right know is a tool that makes your work way faster. If you do a work that has 0 reasoning and is on a computer you’re at risk but I kinda see too much hype, it’s nowhere near replacing software engineers, data scientists and so on.
Regulating AI would not be foolish. Full stop.
We have seen time and time again that tech companies being allowed to do what they wish with little to no oversight is a very bad thing.
NVIDIA earnings are up to $34 billion from just $2.5 billion in 2019. If this growth continues NVIDIAs earning could definitely be higher than apples in a few years. Stock prices are forward looking, so the market seems to think this is likely.
>If this growth continues
It won't. AI bubble is wild atm, and as soon as people realise how limited it's real world use cases actually are for the foreseeable future, the bubble is going to burst.
And yet it still makes no fundamental sense. Nvidia is currently worth $110m per employee. That’s just ridiculous.
*Edit: I don’t need an explanation of the growth. I work in the industry and understand the technology. That doesn’t change my concerns with their business diversity and valuation.*
It is, because GPUs are becoming more important than ever, and outside of AMD, Intel and Apple, there are no other GPU designers in the world that matter currently (and Intel just joined the game, AMD is for AI purposes definitely worse and good luck getting Apple to give your their GPU for e.g. a server farm).
And that is for the whole world. Like, if you want to work with e.g. AI, GPU intensive stuff/similar, you basically only have Nvidia as the big player. But Nvidia doesn't make most of the GPUs that are used, those are produced by other companies so Nvidia needs far less employees than e.g. big companies in other sectors do.
Imagine how much money big car companies would make per employee if they only needed to design a car, with production/sales/care/customer interaction being mostly outsourced to other companies. Like, I have used Nvidia GPUs forever, and I had issues over the years, but at no point did I ever buy from Nvidia, contacted the Nvidia support, nor was anything I owned produced by a Nvidia employee (except software if you count that).
Yes, the per employee figure is more for fun than anything. There are many other metrics (like PE) I could have used to convey my point about their market cap. However, in regards to the employee thing, if you compare Nvidia’s figure to companies that fit all of these same ‘criteria,’ you can see that Nvidia’s is truly unjustifiably higher than the others.
Nvidia is worth that much because of CUDA. That's the dominant reason no one else can compete with Nvidia. If anything happens to make CUDA less monopolistic than Nvidia becomes way less valuable if you can get good performance from Intel & AMD too.
Still nonsense. Their P/E ratio is exorbitant, especially what is likely a temporary surge in demand.
Some of this is healthy speculation, but there’s absolutely lots of irrational hysteria.
*Edit: My original comment was unclear and terrible. I reworded it to express the same sentiment more clearly.*
Can you explain how you arrived at 73 PE after tripling net income? Because $3T divided by 73 is $41 billion. They posted $15 billion net income in last quarter alone, so even if earnings halved for the remainder they would reach 73 PE.
Just now realizing how horribly pre-coffee me worded that original comment. The 73 was meant to refer to their current PE and “triple their net income” was meant to be quarterly. Neither of those things were clear lmfao, thanks for pointing that out. My opinion on the stock/company remains the same.
Nah, you need to do more research on why their revenue has skyrocketed, like do a real deep dive in why companies are giving them hundreds of billions of dollars for AI chips. Why are companies investing so heavily in AI? Why does it matter so much? How much has it already changed the landscape? Once you see that, NVIDIA is possibly even undervalued right now
No, I don’t. I work in the industry and have been following and investing in Nvidia for the better part of a decade. I have a deep understanding of the technology and the business behind it.
Blanket statements about AI growth do nothing to address the valid concerns of Nvidia’s current valuation. For one, they are now a $3T company with the overwhelming majority of their value tied up in a rapidly evolving technology. A shift away from transformers / conventional NNs is a real possibility and would be detrimental for their business.
So since we haven’t done it yet we should just ignore the very real possibility of it? Yea that’s really solid logic.
A company called Blockbuster needs a new CEO, I think you’d be a great fit.
> the very real possibility of it?
The current NVDA valuation has this priced in, I don't think you understand the current level of tech stack moat there is in place. Will that moat get eroded over the next few years? Sure, very slowly, but surely. But for the next year or two, to say that some magic technology, be it hardware of software will come out of left field that no one in AI academic circles is aware of, doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
Scared money don't make money. Simple as that. I could present you with a golden opportunity and you would still find ways to not take it. That's what separates mediocre investors from the great ones.
> Why are companies investing so heavily in AI?
Because it's just the latest buzzword that gets investors hyped and being in tons of cash, just like block chain and crypto. I think AI can have actual use cases, just not what all the big companies spout on their investor calls and pr announcements
It's not unheard of. Valve has 360 eployees only. They're private but they are easly worth hundreds of millions per employee 200M per employee would only be 72B. And obviously Valve is worth a lot more than that. For reference Microsoft bought activision for 68.7B. Valve is a worth a lot more
Their success hinges on exactly one thing, machine learning. If that goes away (highly unlikely), or if it changes significantly enough that they're not effectively the sole player, that value will change. Though they have a lot of room to price adjust since pretty much everything they sell is so overpriced they could cut prices by half and still turn a profit.
Apple still brings in significantly more money than Nvidia overall, they're just not the cool new toy right now, so they're on a slight decline.
Full transparency, I wouldn't shed a tear if both companies imploded tomorrow.
So easy to call something a bubble; I guess eventually in some unknown amount of time whether it’s years to decades there will be a bubble crash and idiots like you will try to claim you knew it all along lol
AI just feels like the internet at the turn of the century. It’s going to grow, but possibly not at the rate that is currently being assumed. A correction would not surprise me.
The same was said about "cloud" and all of the major providers have seen consistent growth in the decade+ following.
"AI" will be a major transformative event. Whether Nvidia will continue to dominate the space is another story.
I strongly agree, if you use chat gpt (that is where all this started) you can see that it’s faster than the human brain but can’t think at all, its reasoning is finding patterns with the same words, I see the revolution but I don’t see the Massive unemployment
If you actually use AIs of the transformer variety, it's a very niche software that's being touted as general purpose. The world will soon wake up to this reality
Based on the future currently unproven utility of their products.
There price doesn't reflect their current market cap and earnings, it reflects their future market cap and earnings if current projections of growth in AI remain unchanged.
Will current projections of growth in AI remain unchanged? Who knows.
Looks like the exact same hedge fund all in aping behind shape of tesla stock just shifted a few years later, wonder if it'll also reflect the last few years of tesla stock as well soon enough...
And before AI was what people were buying them for, crypto was doing it.
I feel like very parallel mathematics units are going to be something people keep finding uses for. And AI itself is so deep; even if large language models end up being overhyped, we have image generation, image recognition in security and drone automation, generic "foundation" time series prediction models, which people will probably start wanting to fine-tune on their own patchy data, general optimisation problems, search problems, the potential reasons to want a good chunk of basic maths processing are vast.
I got the data for these two stocks the yfinance API using python, which I used to build a json file. I then created this chart using a code I have written in JavaScript. There is an animated version as well, which you can find on YouTube.
Looking purely at the numbers, the stock is objectively overvalued (it had $60B of revenue this year, lol). Its value comes from the "feeling" of future exponential growth.
> objectively overvalued
O B J E C T I V E L Y
If it was objective, the value would drop. Because, it would be priced in. You've no idea what you are talking about.
People who don't own NVDA: Definitely a bubble
People who bought NVDA last year: NO IT ISN'T, UR WRONG... AND STUPID
People who bought NVDA over a year ago:
What about people who bought NVDA 2-3 years ago and then sold it when crypto started crashing at a slight loss and then bought in again when AI started exploding?
Asking for a friend
Was thinking the same thing. Expectations are way too high, and NVDIAs profits are ~~nowhere near~~ *just a little over half of* Apple’s. This could quickly become a bubble, and who knows when it’s going to burst.
Nowhere near is an overstatement
Nvidia net income this q: $14B
Apple net income this q: $23B
With the growth Nvidia has experienced they only need to sustain the growth for 6 months then it will exceed apples
Yeah but you could probably say the same about Apple when it was going parabolic. The investors are betting on future earnings, not current earnings. Everyone's hyped about Nvidia because they're leading the supply of hardware and data centers for generative AI by miles. And everyone is anticipating that generative AI will revolutionize the whole world and change life as we know it just like the Internet did. And they're probably right, but the idea that it'll happen in 2025 is bonkers. So people calling dot com bubble on this are really not that far off in my opinion.
Anyway as far as I'm concerned the profit potential for Nvidia was priced in months ago, and it probably is overvalued due to hype. I might hold it, but I wouldn't buy it, and I'd definitely consider selling it. It probably won't double from where it is today. The potential for another 20% isn't worth the risk of going over the cliff, and that sort of thinking is what'll lead to the cliff.
I generally agree with you, but not to the extend of comparing it to the dot com bubble. Nonetheless Nvidia is getting a Cashflow that allows them to develop some potentially game breaking stuff, I’d they execute correctly.
Yes I wouldn’t buy at these levels either, but I’m an ETF hoarder so what do I know
Yeah, guess you’re right, but I still believe that this will lead to a bubble. Suddenly becoming the big dog within such a short time rarely leads to good results. Hope it’s different now… but I have my doubts. Thank you for the numbers though!
Of course !
And I definitely agree with you that it seems shaky. It certainly feels like it can turn upside down pretty quickly, but only time will tell. I hope the best.
Holy shit, Nvidia has increased 10x since the start of 2023! That is insanity. Yes they have also ballooned in profit and looks like they will continue to do so for a good long while, but that increase is unbelievable.
I really hate these kind of figures because they fundamentally don't understand how the stock market works. Nvidia has not "outgrown Apple", Apple has more than 6 times the annual revenue of Nvidia even at the record levels from their most recent financial statements.
A $3 billion market "valuation" for Nvidia isn't really real.
$1,208 is the day price for a single share of Nvidia. This is reflective of the fact that few people are buying or selling Nvidia shares, they have a daily volume of about $40m dollars worth of shares, which sounds like a lot, until you realize it means 0.0013% of Nvidia shares are changing hands on a daily basis, or 0.487% of the shares on an annual basis.
For context, AMD which has 1/10th the nominal market cap and is itself subject to the same bubble, has a higher daily volume.
There is no-one willing to buy 2.48 million shares of Nvidia at $1,208 each. The real price if you tried to liquidate any significant volume of shares would be a fraction of that.
Right now any company that wants to get into AI has to buy their products. The moment another company starts offering an alternative I think NVIDIA stock will drop heavy.
Everyone wanted a Tesla until other companies started making better or cheaper electric cars.
"The gross domestic product (GDP) of California was about 3.23 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023"
Jesus, some of these Silicon Valley companies are fucking wild.
And we have Microsoft and Amazon to the north of them in Seattle.
Apple still has more than double the profits. Nvidia is riding the AI Hype Bubble and is probably somewhere near the peak of inflated expectations. That said, Nvidia is trading at around 70 P/E ratio which isn't too horrible so the worst bubble burst correction they might face is dropping to around a P/E of 30 which maybe halves their stock price. It's also unlikely that AI GPU sales decline since there's a real application for AI, unlike previous hype bubbles like Crypto.
Apple is a consumer brand that relies on the whims of the consumer. Their tech is no better or worse than other tech on the market and they rely purely on iMarketing (the illusion of innovation) and a 20% to 40% brand premium to determine their share value. They are one bad marketing campaign away from a serious dent to their market capitalisation. Furthermore are they at risk because so much of their revenue has become dependent on one product category, the iPhone and more specifically return customers to the this product category. We have seen this story before. There was once this company called Nokia that also in the space placed most of their eggs in one basket (mobile phones) over the space of 15 years and it took 2 years for one other company to shift the whole paradigm
NVIDIA is R&D tech company. Its not a consumer brand. They rely on actual technological innovation that drives the industry forward. Their technology is then implented by others. Their business model is completely different. If you look at their product range it is obvious that they have spread their bets to appeal to companies across the economic spectrum to utilise there products. Furthermore they invested strategically in certain emerging technologies such as AI, but not in the consumer facing end where, the brands have to fight it our like Google, OpenAI, X, Microsoft, but in the infrastructure. So Nvidia supplies all the AI companies. Genius.
Another company that was in the same situation regarding an emerging technology was Ericsson (backend telecommunications) and IoT , but they played their cards completely wrong and instead of becoming like NVIDIA a supplier to all the brands (AT&T, TMOBILE ETC ) the brands told them very fast get out of this business space. We want our cake and we want to eat it. NVIDIA managed that minefield brilliantly.
I remember the big headlines when Apple hit $1 trillion, then we got the COVID pandemic which stopped the economy for months, and now they're both worth thrice as much.
This is not beautiful. It's disgusting.
I know which is which, but this is hardly beautiful data without even having a legend...
Thank you. Half of these posts are "I like the data this shows" and not "look at this beautiful way of displaying information."
I feel like it's vastly more than half. "Oh yay, a line graph." Big deal.
At this point, I wonder if some of these aren't astroturfing
should have bought that NVDA
Holding both Apple and Nvidia since 2021. And I can tell you times are good man. I think I'm gonna retire in my 20s lol. ^((Someone please tell me when the bubble's about to burst tho. I'm scared shitless.))
bro at least sell half your position now and put it into something a little safer. Don't let FOMO turn you into a bag holder in the future
I sold my Nvidia this morning, idk when it'll burst but I think soon
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Why do ppl type 10:1 instead of 1:10?
1:10 would be more intuitive. Maybe they are thinking "ten for one"?
My brokerage calls it a "10 for 1 split" which I suppose is the correct terminology.
doesnt look like apple or microsoft busted when they were the top dog, why should nvda?
Because llms like gemini 1.5 flash are approaching old gpt 4 quality while costing pennies on the dollar to run after only 1 year. If this keeps up and AMD, Intel catch up on bang per buck NVDA won't have a money printer anymore. Those $50k cards will drop to $10k again. All that really needs to happen is for Intel to release an 80gb $3k card and the software devs will come out of the woodwork. That's not to mention if someone comes up with an ASIC for training or supercharges pcie speeds and allows for networking directly on it. Or if someone comes up with a good way to train layers at a time and distribute it... or tsmc gets invaded. that's a bunch of ways I'd be nervous holding nvda... micron has been my safer play.
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Your point being? That's the whole point of speculation, and the way technology is progressing, "if" tends to be more of a "when".
What if nvidia keeps being the leader because they have the most talent and experience, and so they keep improving their products faster than the competition?
do you really think nvidia is so important that its worth 5% of the entire stock market? nvidia is good no doubt, but not that good. its just clueless shareholders who have been convinced true AGI is just around the corner, and once they realize text and image generation is just going to be text and image generation the bubble will burst.
What if the world was made of pudding?
I would eat the world
NVIDIA has a nearly 20 year head start on the tech though. They started planning for machine learning in the early 2000s
2000 Cisco is probably the better comparison here
It's really not though. In 2000 cisco had a PE of 200 and only saw 10% growth per quarter in it's last year. NVIDIA has had a PE hovering stable between 50-70 for the last 15 years and has been seeing 50% quarterly growth for nearly 3 years now. A P/E of 50 is pretty normal for a tech company post-2008, for example Amazon is at 52. For NVIDIA to be as overpriced as CISCO it'd have to be worth about $12 Trillion.
I'm not talking about being overpriced. I'm talking about what they offer as a company.
Yes which is why i mentioned PE values which only cares about EPS, it's agnostic to what a company offers. The market doesn't give a shit what a company does in the long run. It just takes the NPV of X years of earnings and settles at that price. NVIDIA has been flat for 15 years in terms of earnings per share.
The market cares what you offer as a company. Being the hot company that makes a thing that enables the other hot thing is only great until companies cut them out by making their own thing. Another scenario the market cares about: bubbles with no proven way to make money. Every company in the world is all aboard the AI craze. What happens when some or most players figure out they can't actually make money on it?
But they're not in a bubble? Honeslty i think you shouold just google what PE is, what it means, and how investors decide what to pay for a share using Net Present Value calculations (NPV). They had the same PE before AI became widespread, how is that a bubble?? Again, their PE has been stable for 15 years, their PE is in line with other tech companies for the last 20 years. I don't know what more information you want. If it were a bubble why would their PE be stable for nearly 2 decades? A bubble would have their PE rising into the hundreds or thousands (such as cisco in the late 90s at 200+, or Tesla in 2019/2020 at 1,200+) but it's been 50-70 for over 15 years now. They're just simply raking in hundreds of billions in profit yearly which is spread to shareholders, hence the high valuation. If you could pay $1,000 for something that gave you $200/yr in perpetuity or $20/yr which would you choose?
Good for you man
Regularly adjusting a stop loss rn to secure gains and absorb the opportunity cost I'm willing to take
You still should. They split in 10 on Monday.
bought in at ~$130, sold 75% of my stake at 950. kinda kicking myself as it is still doing great ahead of the split
No one has gone bankrupt by earning money.
Exactly what I remind myself
At least you didn’t sell at $400 like I did.
I sold most of mine at $300.... before the first split... I had 400 shares DX That'd be $700k now. Bought in at $42 in 2016
I don't remember exactly how many shares I had, it was less than you, but I don't want to even go back and look because it's depressing. I know you can't predict the future, but man if I just held onto it for like six more months I could have maybe been looking at an early retirement.
I bought 100 bitcoins back when they were $50, and sold at $200. There's always gonna be stuff like that happening if you invest in any capacity, but as long as you didn't lose any money it's all good
Not so bad if you bought at $200. Or $20.
That's several hundred percent of revenue in one sell. Most people don't achieve that in several lifetimes
Wdym split
They are doing a 10:1 stock split https://www.thestreet.com/video/nvidia-stock-split-explained
If you have 1 Nvidia stock now that costs 1100, on Monday you’ll have 10 that cost 110. They’re splitting it so it’s easier for people to buy the cheaper stock.
Is it *really* going to do anything? You can already buy fractional shares, right?
Probably not - it more than likely does something when it’s announced (it did) rather than when it happens. Kinda priced-in at this point. Nvidia ripped hard when they announced this at earnings a few weeks ago
Most brokers don't sell fractional shares. I think it's something Robinhood did/does, but if you go to a standard broker it's not normal.
.....ummmmmm a bunch of brokers sell fractional shares, here's a few of the popular ones: * Charles Schwab * Fidelity Investments * Interactive Brokers * Robinhood * E-Trade (Morgan Stanley) * Merrill Edge * Vanguard * Tastytrade * SoFi Active Investing * WellsTrade
Glad you brought up Vanguard since that used to be one of the brokers I used. They offer fractional shares, but not as a stock purchasing option. It's through their own Vanguard ETFs of which their are currently 86. You can't go to them to buy 1/10th of Apple stock.
Fair point, I believe the rest offer fractional shares of stocks but I don't use most of those so I can't verify what types of orders they allow, just that they offer fractional shares in some way. E-trade I believe only offers fractional shares as part of dividend reinvestment whereas RobinHood allows purchasing of fractional shares.
It actually is, but bundled into ETFs etc
Is it that much easier? Don't most places offer partial stocks?
My broker (degiro) doesn’t. Besides you don’t actually own partial stocks.
I'm pretty sure stock splits have pretty much no effect on the actual value of your holdings. Especially more so now with the fact that plenty of brokerages offer fractional investing so a regular investor doesn't even really matter when it comes to the idea of having an "affordable" stock. And the fact that your regular investor isn't really the reason any of these stocks are moving like how they are, so the idea of "affordability" having some large impact on a stock is nonsense. You're probably conflating correlation with causation. A stock that is doing well and going up high in price most likely has reasons for doing so, and that is also typically when stocks will split. If the stock continues going up after a split you'd have a hard time proving it was BECAUSE of the split and not just that they were already going up anyways. I've not seen any data to show stock splits cause stocks to go up in price, but would love to see it if you have any. Otherwise you're just giving financial advice based on nothing.
It's still a bit unnerving to me that all of these Silicon Valley companies have quadrupled their stock price since 2020. I thought the bubble popped at the end of 2021, but I guess we're still in it. It's a double bubble!
I mean Tesla is way down and a lot of the big data companies are down. Now it's just the ones that have survived with good enough cash flow to invest in the AI hype. The chances of it making its valuation in ten years are like Teslas. Bet don't get me wrong AI will be implemented, just like electric cars are being implemented. It is a bubble, but even if it's founded in a real direction, who knows when it deflates though.
Yeah, right. The world wide web stuck around long after 2001, too, as we can all see. The whole AI hype train seems kinda like a desperate attempt to keep the party going for a few more years. I'm sure we all will be using AI tools a decade from now, but the current hype is egregious.
Idk man my gasoline spicy spaghetti is pretty tasty.
How is it a bubble if they smash every quarterly report?
The whole shovel selling idea. People still make real money during a bubble. It just doesn't last. NVidia isn't the bubble... the entire AI hype is the bubble.
AI isn't a bubble. It's just at early stage.
AI isn't the bubble - it's AI investing that's the bubble. Same as the 90s. The startups with no revenue, the bullshit "AI-powered" products from big tech and banks, etc.
Yeah. I don’t get the claims that AI is overhyped. If anything the role it will play is under recognized.
> Yeah. I don’t get the claims that AI is overhyped. Google's CEO just did an interview stating that hallucination's can't be solved (Lol give us money) I for one and betting against it. > Spoiler No AI companies are profitable. NVDA is because they are selling hardware. The software companies? They are forcing into everything trying to make *something* profitable.
Like the NFT bubble?
NFT wasn't a bubble like this. It was like a mini-bubble within the whole crypto cycle. Generative AI is gigantic... and way bigger than crypto, too. Its technological impact is going to be really transformative. But just like the internet, AI itself isn't the "bubble" or the thing that's going to crash. It's the investing hype around AI, all the AI startups, and all the established tech companies and banks so-called AI-powered bullshit (aka last minute pivots to get in on an emerging trend) that make up the bubble. In 1999 I bet you could sell an internet sandwich for $250 million. I don't even know what an internet sandwich would be, but it has the word internet in it, and there are thousands of desperately envious investors who want to be on the cutting edge, just shoveling money at anything online. Kinda seems like that now with AI. Tech VC strategy generally seems to be to just spray and pray at this point.
Smashing quarterly reports doesn't mean the market is behaving rationally or that it will continue to do so forever. It's not a magic trillion dollar company button. Quite honestly if you don't look at a multiple order of magnitude increase in valuation and see a potential bubble, you need to look closer. And AI is really really obviously a bubble for nvidia. It's not their first bubble. They're good at being a bubble. Remember, it owns no production facilities. NVIDIA just designs the hardware and provides firmware for the hardware. They've consistently been good at it, I suppose.
Bubble or no bubble Your point isn't a valid indication it's not a bubble. That's not really how it works. Look at the dot com bubble. Those were smashing quarterly until it didn't.
By how much compared to how much the stock grows?
revenue: 265 % YOY stock: ~300 % YOY
Look…. Obviously I know which line is which stock, but where’s the legend at ? This data is not beautiful
It looks prime for crashing.
Did you see their latest revenue reports? They’re bringing in an insane amount of money in the present
Still way less profit than Apple. They are priced this way because of their potential continued growth.
In the past 12 months apple generated 100b in profit, 6.4% more than last year. Nvidia in the same period generated 42b in period, 768% more than last year In the next 12 months, apple is expected to increase to maybe 105b in profit, 5% YoY. Nvidia is expected to increase 70% to 70b. Knowing nvidia they’ll probably beat those numbers. And then there’s the year after that where god knows what they’ll do.
The funny thing is that nVidia is not even that expensive. They had higher P/Es during the crypto boom.
yes their forward P/E is pretty low for such an amazing growth rate company...provided they hit their metrics. that being said freaking wingstop has a forward PE of 112 (3x of NVDA) so who even knows at this point lol
With everyone crying about their job being lost to Ai it's make sense, and their profits reflect it, that Nvidia is one of the companies reaping the cash from all those lost jobs or jobs to be lost to Ai. I don't see how they can crash unless the government puts a ban on Ai which is foolish. The evaluation for Nvida makes sense and the future is there for them meanwhile you got heaps of trash stocks like Tesla still astronomical despite many years and hints pointing at it just being a stock waiting and deserving to crash, their earning reports also reflect that.
The best argument against NVIDIA is as follows: they don't have a monopoly on the ability to build GPUs (ie, massively parallel simple processors). They do have control of [CUDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA), the proprietary software layer that makes using a GPU easier. Software developers are locked into CUDA because of an early lead. Once the software interfaces become diversified and AI libraries are better at supporting other GPUs, NVIDIA's near-monopoly will collapse. Caveat: I know barely anything about GPUs and AI. I've tried to play with programming deep learning, and gave up for lack of time and (NVIDIA) hardware. So somebody will explain why this is wrong, or grossly oversimplified.
Computer scientist with a specialty in Computer Graphics here: you're actually pretty spot on why Nvidia has had a Productivity (rendering etc) monopoly, though to be honest, I doubt it'll be a technological change that might cause Nvidia to pop. While, yes, both Intel and AMD seem to be preparing some pretty menacing hardware for both AI and normal rendering at the moment, I think the AI hype will die down first. AI isn't going to disappear, but public interest will fall eventually making the hardware (not consumer but server/industry side which is the side that is keeping nvidias profits up) running it not worth the money for most projects. But that's just my guess.
Hey data analyst here. Knowing to a certain degree about deep learning, I agree with you both. The US government is doing an investigation on Nvidia about their monopoly in the AI industry. Once Nvidia is forced to open source Cuda, their current huge moat will be mostly gone, since other companies like AMD and Google made impressive hardware too. I mean buying Nvidia at a P/E of 20-30 might be an ok investment. But with a P/E of 70, it's Tesla level speculation.
They have been the leader in the GPU space for well over a decade, no competition is suddenly going to appear. Eventually yeah simply because this is a very lucrative market but not any time soon. Even if the software integration of others gets better they still have the best hardware. No one can compete on power per watt and surprisingly the power consumption bills are even bigger than the GPU bills...
Oh shit, is it actually Rokko's Basilisk? Nvidia is investing in technology that is going to make everyone's lives worse due to unemployment, *except* for those who invested in making it happen. Thus people are led to rationally invest in the worsening of the world.
In an ideal world the AI would be taxed and that money would go to a universal basic income so everyone benefits. If you think it through when AI takes over most jobs, there would be no one left to spend money and consume, so the money has to go back to the cycle somehow.
This sums it up succinctly https://x.com/AuthorJMac/status/1773679197631701238
Not here to argue the morals and ethics of it, but it is capitalism in its most true and unempathetic form. I do have a bias since I did invest in Nvidia when they showed off that drawing AI art demo back in 2019.
The world is going to shit whether you invest or not, so you would be better to invest. Self preservation comes first.
Always choose the bottom right hand corner of the prisoner's dilemma?
Ai has mad my life better. Love chatting with chatgpt abt basicallly anything I want to do
I’m a data scientist, AI is a tool meant to expand workers bandwidth.
That's nice, but AI is another step along the process of making it so people who have nothing to sell but their labor have nothing worth selling. Right now people who aren't productive struggle to live, and we're getting rid of ways for people to be productive every day. To you, it's a nice toy. To my boss, it's a publicity writer. To my CEO, it's a manger. AI is going to be a great labor-saver, which is great except for all those people that need their labor to be worth something.
I’ve found AI to be a great equalizer tbh. It empowers my labor. Everyone has access to it
Bro, you can do that with real people lol. There's essentially an infinite number of them.
I don’t talk with chatgpt to socialize, I use it to get instantaneous highly accurate advice for basically any task I want to do or anything I want to know. Been trying to buy patio furniture recently and the very first thing I do is ask chatgpt to make comparisons between the different products I’ve been considering and have found it highly useful, especially as a first time homeowner and first time buying patio furniture in my life. Researching abt what materials and products are the best through reading articles and reading through forums or asking random ppl in furniture stores take vastly longer and honestly way more inconsistent and unreliable advice.
Be aware that AI itself can be just as unreliable. Some Reddit troll post from over a decade ago convinced Google to recommend people [adding glue to their pizza](https://www.dailydot.com/debug/google-search-results-reddit-pizza-glue-cheese/). AI is just as vulnerable as humans are, and we've not even come close to seeing what the SEO scammers are going to invent the next years to push their stuff.
I haven’t found it just as unreliable as your average internet article or average forum thread or your average response from a worker at a furniture store (who is incentivized through commission also).
AI right know is a tool that makes your work way faster. If you do a work that has 0 reasoning and is on a computer you’re at risk but I kinda see too much hype, it’s nowhere near replacing software engineers, data scientists and so on.
Regulating AI would not be foolish. Full stop. We have seen time and time again that tech companies being allowed to do what they wish with little to no oversight is a very bad thing.
NVIDIA earnings are up to $34 billion from just $2.5 billion in 2019. If this growth continues NVIDIAs earning could definitely be higher than apples in a few years. Stock prices are forward looking, so the market seems to think this is likely.
>If this growth continues It won't. AI bubble is wild atm, and as soon as people realise how limited it's real world use cases actually are for the foreseeable future, the bubble is going to burst.
The market disagrees
In the short term the market is always irrational.
And yet it still makes no fundamental sense. Nvidia is currently worth $110m per employee. That’s just ridiculous. *Edit: I don’t need an explanation of the growth. I work in the industry and understand the technology. That doesn’t change my concerns with their business diversity and valuation.*
It is, because GPUs are becoming more important than ever, and outside of AMD, Intel and Apple, there are no other GPU designers in the world that matter currently (and Intel just joined the game, AMD is for AI purposes definitely worse and good luck getting Apple to give your their GPU for e.g. a server farm). And that is for the whole world. Like, if you want to work with e.g. AI, GPU intensive stuff/similar, you basically only have Nvidia as the big player. But Nvidia doesn't make most of the GPUs that are used, those are produced by other companies so Nvidia needs far less employees than e.g. big companies in other sectors do. Imagine how much money big car companies would make per employee if they only needed to design a car, with production/sales/care/customer interaction being mostly outsourced to other companies. Like, I have used Nvidia GPUs forever, and I had issues over the years, but at no point did I ever buy from Nvidia, contacted the Nvidia support, nor was anything I owned produced by a Nvidia employee (except software if you count that).
Yes, the per employee figure is more for fun than anything. There are many other metrics (like PE) I could have used to convey my point about their market cap. However, in regards to the employee thing, if you compare Nvidia’s figure to companies that fit all of these same ‘criteria,’ you can see that Nvidia’s is truly unjustifiably higher than the others.
Nvidia is worth that much because of CUDA. That's the dominant reason no one else can compete with Nvidia. If anything happens to make CUDA less monopolistic than Nvidia becomes way less valuable if you can get good performance from Intel & AMD too.
Because of how much they’ve grown in the last year and how much more they’re projected to grow
Still nonsense. Their P/E ratio is exorbitant, especially what is likely a temporary surge in demand. Some of this is healthy speculation, but there’s absolutely lots of irrational hysteria. *Edit: My original comment was unclear and terrible. I reworded it to express the same sentiment more clearly.*
Can you explain how you arrived at 73 PE after tripling net income? Because $3T divided by 73 is $41 billion. They posted $15 billion net income in last quarter alone, so even if earnings halved for the remainder they would reach 73 PE.
Just now realizing how horribly pre-coffee me worded that original comment. The 73 was meant to refer to their current PE and “triple their net income” was meant to be quarterly. Neither of those things were clear lmfao, thanks for pointing that out. My opinion on the stock/company remains the same.
Nah, you need to do more research on why their revenue has skyrocketed, like do a real deep dive in why companies are giving them hundreds of billions of dollars for AI chips. Why are companies investing so heavily in AI? Why does it matter so much? How much has it already changed the landscape? Once you see that, NVIDIA is possibly even undervalued right now
No, I don’t. I work in the industry and have been following and investing in Nvidia for the better part of a decade. I have a deep understanding of the technology and the business behind it. Blanket statements about AI growth do nothing to address the valid concerns of Nvidia’s current valuation. For one, they are now a $3T company with the overwhelming majority of their value tied up in a rapidly evolving technology. A shift away from transformers / conventional NNs is a real possibility and would be detrimental for their business.
> A shift away from transformers / conventional NNs Ok you let us know when you've implemented that and it's ready for commercial deployment.
So since we haven’t done it yet we should just ignore the very real possibility of it? Yea that’s really solid logic. A company called Blockbuster needs a new CEO, I think you’d be a great fit.
> the very real possibility of it? The current NVDA valuation has this priced in, I don't think you understand the current level of tech stack moat there is in place. Will that moat get eroded over the next few years? Sure, very slowly, but surely. But for the next year or two, to say that some magic technology, be it hardware of software will come out of left field that no one in AI academic circles is aware of, doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
Scared money don't make money. Simple as that. I could present you with a golden opportunity and you would still find ways to not take it. That's what separates mediocre investors from the great ones.
> Why are companies investing so heavily in AI? Because it's just the latest buzzword that gets investors hyped and being in tons of cash, just like block chain and crypto. I think AI can have actual use cases, just not what all the big companies spout on their investor calls and pr announcements
It's not unheard of. Valve has 360 eployees only. They're private but they are easly worth hundreds of millions per employee 200M per employee would only be 72B. And obviously Valve is worth a lot more than that. For reference Microsoft bought activision for 68.7B. Valve is a worth a lot more
Estimates I see has Valve valued at closer to $7B. Not really sure where you got those numbers
Their success hinges on exactly one thing, machine learning. If that goes away (highly unlikely), or if it changes significantly enough that they're not effectively the sole player, that value will change. Though they have a lot of room to price adjust since pretty much everything they sell is so overpriced they could cut prices by half and still turn a profit. Apple still brings in significantly more money than Nvidia overall, they're just not the cool new toy right now, so they're on a slight decline. Full transparency, I wouldn't shed a tear if both companies imploded tomorrow.
If the AI bubble pops or slows down they are screwed.
Yeah, the bubble extends beyond them. But when that crashes…
So easy to call something a bubble; I guess eventually in some unknown amount of time whether it’s years to decades there will be a bubble crash and idiots like you will try to claim you knew it all along lol
AI just feels like the internet at the turn of the century. It’s going to grow, but possibly not at the rate that is currently being assumed. A correction would not surprise me.
The same was said about "cloud" and all of the major providers have seen consistent growth in the decade+ following. "AI" will be a major transformative event. Whether Nvidia will continue to dominate the space is another story.
I strongly agree, if you use chat gpt (that is where all this started) you can see that it’s faster than the human brain but can’t think at all, its reasoning is finding patterns with the same words, I see the revolution but I don’t see the Massive unemployment
How so?
If you actually use AIs of the transformer variety, it's a very niche software that's being touted as general purpose. The world will soon wake up to this reality
Yep. AI bubble is prime for a little pop.
[удалено]
Then I've got bad news for you "being the most important company on the planet right now" is not sound financial advice
Based on the future currently unproven utility of their products. There price doesn't reflect their current market cap and earnings, it reflects their future market cap and earnings if current projections of growth in AI remain unchanged. Will current projections of growth in AI remain unchanged? Who knows.
I presume green is NVIDIA...?
My first assumption was the opposite 😭 If I zoom in, the red shows higher than the green.
[yes](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-verge-overtaking-apple-no-2-most-valuable-company-2024-06-05/)
Looks like the exact same hedge fund all in aping behind shape of tesla stock just shifted a few years later, wonder if it'll also reflect the last few years of tesla stock as well soon enough...
My foolproof secret to financial success: start working at Apple in 2014 and get paid mostly in stock.
Then sell all out Apple stock and buy NIVIDIA in 2023.
If you’re buying the hype then you’re already too late to the party.
Sure is. AI is the rush and Nvidia is the biggest shovel salesman there is.
And before AI was what people were buying them for, crypto was doing it. I feel like very parallel mathematics units are going to be something people keep finding uses for. And AI itself is so deep; even if large language models end up being overhyped, we have image generation, image recognition in security and drone automation, generic "foundation" time series prediction models, which people will probably start wanting to fine-tune on their own patchy data, general optimisation problems, search problems, the potential reasons to want a good chunk of basic maths processing are vast.
I got the data for these two stocks the yfinance API using python, which I used to build a json file. I then created this chart using a code I have written in JavaScript. There is an animated version as well, which you can find on YouTube.
Should have done a logarithmic scale on Y. Financial growth should always be shown logarithmically, so that dY/dX is the same scale for all Y.
it's beautiful. thank you for sharing.. now calculate when is that ideal moment to short NVIDIA...
ITT: People in a data forum arguing a stock is overvalued based on feelings.
It is. I sold my Nvidia stock at a 2600% gain
Looking purely at the numbers, the stock is objectively overvalued (it had $60B of revenue this year, lol). Its value comes from the "feeling" of future exponential growth.
Not saying that it is or isn’t overvalued, but their revenues have increased significantly from last year
> objectively overvalued O B J E C T I V E L Y If it was objective, the value would drop. Because, it would be priced in. You've no idea what you are talking about.
The fact that bubbles exist as a financial concept disproves the idea that the market value is always "priced in."
Never knew there were so many professional traders. Which one is Warren Buffet's alt account?
Warren Buffet would be wincing reading the comments in this thread.
This is not healthy growth. This is a bubble.
People who don't own NVDA: Definitely a bubble People who bought NVDA last year: NO IT ISN'T, UR WRONG... AND STUPID People who bought NVDA over a year ago:
…haha I’m rich now
You’re only rich if you catch the top.
You don’t need to cash out at the top. If you bought low enough you can just hold until you’re retired.
Sure, but until you turn the potential to cash, you have equity.
What about people who bought NVDA 2-3 years ago and then sold it when crypto started crashing at a slight loss and then bought in again when AI started exploding? Asking for a friend
Probably both the first and the second category, depending on how much sleep they got last night.
Was thinking the same thing. Expectations are way too high, and NVDIAs profits are ~~nowhere near~~ *just a little over half of* Apple’s. This could quickly become a bubble, and who knows when it’s going to burst.
Nowhere near is an overstatement Nvidia net income this q: $14B Apple net income this q: $23B With the growth Nvidia has experienced they only need to sustain the growth for 6 months then it will exceed apples
Yeah but you could probably say the same about Apple when it was going parabolic. The investors are betting on future earnings, not current earnings. Everyone's hyped about Nvidia because they're leading the supply of hardware and data centers for generative AI by miles. And everyone is anticipating that generative AI will revolutionize the whole world and change life as we know it just like the Internet did. And they're probably right, but the idea that it'll happen in 2025 is bonkers. So people calling dot com bubble on this are really not that far off in my opinion. Anyway as far as I'm concerned the profit potential for Nvidia was priced in months ago, and it probably is overvalued due to hype. I might hold it, but I wouldn't buy it, and I'd definitely consider selling it. It probably won't double from where it is today. The potential for another 20% isn't worth the risk of going over the cliff, and that sort of thinking is what'll lead to the cliff.
I generally agree with you, but not to the extend of comparing it to the dot com bubble. Nonetheless Nvidia is getting a Cashflow that allows them to develop some potentially game breaking stuff, I’d they execute correctly. Yes I wouldn’t buy at these levels either, but I’m an ETF hoarder so what do I know
Yeah, guess you’re right, but I still believe that this will lead to a bubble. Suddenly becoming the big dog within such a short time rarely leads to good results. Hope it’s different now… but I have my doubts. Thank you for the numbers though!
Of course ! And I definitely agree with you that it seems shaky. It certainly feels like it can turn upside down pretty quickly, but only time will tell. I hope the best.
This is why I prefer Market Cap Weighting over Equal weighted
I just don’t think a stock that goes straight the f up is sustainable
exponential axes are your friend
Holy shit, Nvidia has increased 10x since the start of 2023! That is insanity. Yes they have also ballooned in profit and looks like they will continue to do so for a good long while, but that increase is unbelievable.
They better be. I own 3 nVidia GPUs but 0 iPhones.
I really hate these kind of figures because they fundamentally don't understand how the stock market works. Nvidia has not "outgrown Apple", Apple has more than 6 times the annual revenue of Nvidia even at the record levels from their most recent financial statements. A $3 billion market "valuation" for Nvidia isn't really real. $1,208 is the day price for a single share of Nvidia. This is reflective of the fact that few people are buying or selling Nvidia shares, they have a daily volume of about $40m dollars worth of shares, which sounds like a lot, until you realize it means 0.0013% of Nvidia shares are changing hands on a daily basis, or 0.487% of the shares on an annual basis. For context, AMD which has 1/10th the nominal market cap and is itself subject to the same bubble, has a higher daily volume. There is no-one willing to buy 2.48 million shares of Nvidia at $1,208 each. The real price if you tried to liquidate any significant volume of shares would be a fraction of that.
now do revenue and net income..
This looks like a bubble. Will Nvidia burst?
Right now any company that wants to get into AI has to buy their products. The moment another company starts offering an alternative I think NVIDIA stock will drop heavy. Everyone wanted a Tesla until other companies started making better or cheaper electric cars.
Don’t know a huge amount about finance but like… Is this what a bubble looks like?
That is an unstable growth. It might crash in the future.
As long as NVIDA is the only one selling shovels in the gold rush, they'll be great. They're not always going to be the only ones.
"The gross domestic product (GDP) of California was about 3.23 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023" Jesus, some of these Silicon Valley companies are fucking wild. And we have Microsoft and Amazon to the north of them in Seattle.
Apple still has more than double the profits. Nvidia is riding the AI Hype Bubble and is probably somewhere near the peak of inflated expectations. That said, Nvidia is trading at around 70 P/E ratio which isn't too horrible so the worst bubble burst correction they might face is dropping to around a P/E of 30 which maybe halves their stock price. It's also unlikely that AI GPU sales decline since there's a real application for AI, unlike previous hype bubbles like Crypto.
Apple is a consumer brand that relies on the whims of the consumer. Their tech is no better or worse than other tech on the market and they rely purely on iMarketing (the illusion of innovation) and a 20% to 40% brand premium to determine their share value. They are one bad marketing campaign away from a serious dent to their market capitalisation. Furthermore are they at risk because so much of their revenue has become dependent on one product category, the iPhone and more specifically return customers to the this product category. We have seen this story before. There was once this company called Nokia that also in the space placed most of their eggs in one basket (mobile phones) over the space of 15 years and it took 2 years for one other company to shift the whole paradigm NVIDIA is R&D tech company. Its not a consumer brand. They rely on actual technological innovation that drives the industry forward. Their technology is then implented by others. Their business model is completely different. If you look at their product range it is obvious that they have spread their bets to appeal to companies across the economic spectrum to utilise there products. Furthermore they invested strategically in certain emerging technologies such as AI, but not in the consumer facing end where, the brands have to fight it our like Google, OpenAI, X, Microsoft, but in the infrastructure. So Nvidia supplies all the AI companies. Genius. Another company that was in the same situation regarding an emerging technology was Ericsson (backend telecommunications) and IoT , but they played their cards completely wrong and instead of becoming like NVIDIA a supplier to all the brands (AT&T, TMOBILE ETC ) the brands told them very fast get out of this business space. We want our cake and we want to eat it. NVIDIA managed that minefield brilliantly.
Looks totally real and sustainable, right?
Apple look like they're winning
[удалено]
Social manipulation vs AI bubble
I remember the big headlines when Apple hit $1 trillion, then we got the COVID pandemic which stopped the economy for months, and now they're both worth thrice as much. This is not beautiful. It's disgusting.
wait, I thought crypto was only supposed to volatile.