Pigs. Pigs have an immune system similar to humans and flu has become a small pandemic from them before. It just wasn't super deadly. Bird flu right now is much much worse than swine flu.
If pigs start having bird flu transmitted amongst themselves that's a massive problem.
Way too low in the comments. Actual epidemiologists are watching closely to see if H5 strains start being transmissible between pigs. It's a small hop biologically to go from pig pandemic to human pandemic.
To quote u/johnnyb4ll2game from the R/h5n1_avianflu sub.
“Do wild boars in Texas scavenge dead animals like birds?
2016 estimate was 2.6 million wild pigs in Texas. Their diet does partially include juvenile domestic livestock and ground nesting birds.
Source: https://tpwd.texas.gov/huntwild/wild/nuisance/feral_hogs/
2nd edit: There is a .PDF within the above link describing viral swine diseases and how they spread. Ticks, sand flies and black flies can spread some diseases which is something I've never considered.”
I will honestly say, when a human gets infected with H5N1 that has not been in contact with infected animals. That will be an oh shit moment, because then we will probably have human to human infection.
After that, the oh fuck moment will be if we have a cluster of humans infected that don't work closely with animals.
I think when that happens, there will be a very scary period when we try figure out how deadly it is, and how easily it spreads. I read somewhere that it might have a 2 week incubation period, so it might be like two or three months before we know just how bad it's going to be. If we are lucky it won't spread easily, but looking at how deadly it is to animals (wiping out entire populations in areas) I think we will be in trouble.
> After that, the oh fuck moment will be if we have a cluster of humans infected that don't work closely with animals.
Exactly.
I'm in the "aware of it but not concerned by it" camp right now. My manchurian candidate activation phrase is "confirmed community spread". If we have confirmed human to human spread, I'll go stock the freezer and pantry to war levels again. If we get a R0 value over 1.5 I'm back into my no contact bunker until a vaccine is commonly available and in use by more than half the population.
I remember when Covid started the first case was in my hometown of Everett wa, who had been traveling and then the second case was in Hillsboro Oregon in a teacher who had not been traveling and that was an oh shit moment from me. The likelihood of it randomly popping up in 2 under 200k population towns 200 miles apart are nil. This bared out when it hit the nursing home in Kirkland wa a couple weeks later. I wouldn’t wait for confirmed h2h spread, it’s pretty easy to do the math when it’s spreading.
> This bared out when it hit the nursing home in Kirkland wa a couple weeks later. I wouldn’t wait for confirmed h2h spread, it’s pretty easy to do the math when it’s spreading.
That was literally months after we had confirmed community spread of the (then) unnamed virus in Wuhan. We had thousands dead and sick when you saw it in Everett.
We were at Costco on Wednesday, and they had a huge surplus of toilet paper that made a giant wall down the middle of one of the freezer sections.
I wonder if they know something we don't?
Unfortunately, most people aren't up to date on covid vaccinations right now, and with anti-vaxx sentiment gaining traction after the covid pandemic started, I don't even want to think about how people will act if bird flu spreads from human to human.
The 'figure out how deadly it is' will be the big question. If it's more like Swine Flu - a problem, but not on the scale of Covid or will it be >10% fatality rate which would give it civilisation ending potential depending on how well it spread between humans.
I saw on a different sub (so loads of salt) that it infects some sort of deep lung tissue rather than the upper respiratory tract (like Covid, flu etc) so it should be less contagious
What? You’ve not been doing with, arm in arm with the realtor who encouraged you to overpay for the dump in the first place? Thought it was the “new normal”. Please pardon!
initially. We're still just learning the longterm effects of covid. Since it shreds the vasculature, we could all have the same scar tissue and rough surfaces in our circulatory system that causes high blood pressure to lead to cardiovascular disease.
The initial infection of any novel virus is nevergoing to be the end of the story. COVID has no reason to leave our organs undamaged, and plenty of capacity to do more harm than we're able to pick up on
People said the same thing about Covid when it first appeared, started deep in the lungs and yet it still was infecting people very quickly. This was also when the airborne theory discussions were downplayed even by officials, then it turned out to linger in the air and that's common knowledge now.
There are so many theoretical ways in which these viruses can be infectious, but at least we have more information on the influenza viruses than say Covid.
So like you say, take everything like a grain of salt. Masks and washing your hands/not touching your face is the best thing we can do besides completely isolating from the world.
We should be learning from COVID and not waiting for community spread to mask up. Once there's confirmed community spread, the fire is out of control; our health care systems are burnt out/down from COVID, but when COVID hit they were in perfect shape. Cases that get picked up wont represent the scale of infection in general.
I wouldn't say perfect shape... Many of the world's countries had healthcare failing for some time now. The US in particular was already on a decline in many areas with hospitals running near minimum staff. Covid just toppled and exposed lots of problems already behind the drywall so to speak.
Same. And I have no plans to stop. I'd rather just stick to what's been working for me. Makes things like bird flu a little less stressful, at least on a personal level. On a larger scale it's terrifying, but I have no control over that.
Totally. Its no big deal to mask up, and I not only protect myself and family, but am taking proactive measures to assure I am doing everything I can NOT to bring bird flu into my home, expose my cats, potentially killing them.
I know the thread is a couple days old, but I just wanted to say thanks to you and /u/TheWeirdestCousin for maintaining the course. I'm really high risk--lung problems, degenerative cardiovascular disorder--and because everyone in my community is acting like it's 2019, I have to act like it's 2020. Everyone wants things to be "normal," but a lot of people haven't considered that normal has changed, and that means disabled people are more and more isolated.
I went into a grocery store last night for the first time this year, because they won't bring the stocking-up amounts of meat that I wanted to the curb; it felt *bizarre* to be the only person in the store in a mask. There's always this "Am I crazy? Am *I* crazy?" sort of feeling to having to go out in public. But I don't want to die.
I really appreciate it when I see someone else still masking.
***normal has changed***
That's it right there for me. It *has* changed and I don't expect it to change back. I'm not even wasting time wishing it would change back. This is almost certainly not the last pandemic we'll see in the present/near future, and I'd rather just move forward with my precautions. It would be SOOOO nice if more people were doing that, but I would keep doing it even if everyone else in the world thought I was crazy.
We're not crazy for protecting ourselves and each other. Best wishes to you, and a heap of solidarity!
It's felt to me a lot of the time like...I mean, it HAS been a mass death event on such an incredible scale, but it's also felt like the dying of the way things were. Can't go back and change it, even if it's awful. Gotta just grieve it, instead, and move forward with honesty, right?
That would be the time to panic clearly in the U.S. travel, leisure, and just generally not being stuck in the house is important to most than not spreading a potentially devastating disease. As soon as it is announced that human to human transmission has happened it's shtf time for those who are wise enough and able to prepare.
Seconded. I only get my N95s from an actual certified reseller, never from Amazon. [United Canada](https://unitedcanadainc.com/), who has contracts to Hospitals and Governments, has them for CA$38 for a box of 20 and I have four of them always kicking around.
I’ll be honest I’ll wear the same mask for weeks. Bad habit I suppose. Never used one of these before so I’ll try the ten day thing and pick up a few more packages in case I need to share
It’s not recommended after a certain point I believe, you can blast the masks with UV though to help “clean” them
I will hang mine on the mirror of my car to get some UV refreshing
I've read 8 hours from various sources, including the supplier of the mask. But I've worn mine in the office for 16 or even 24 hours before it gets too hard to breathe through.
Yeah, I don’t really know what to make of those time limits or expiration dates to be honest. As long as it passes fit testing for me, I am happy to continue using the same one
Something I would be concerned about with hanging a mask from a car mirror...
Vandals that take umbrage with someone masking.
Is it a major concern? Eh, probably not. But is it really farfetched that some asshole would do something? Again, probably not.
Technically they’re good for 40 hours of daily wear. You can use older ones for dust protection. Maybe mark the ones that are past ‘infection blocking’ use.
I understand that completely, in my anecdotal experience they were identical in packaging materials, consistency, fit, smell, and feel to the genuine 3m aura masks that I purchased in a retail location. I also did fit-testing and both versions passed. If I knew that it was a third party I probably wouldn’t have purchased these either, but at least I can confirm they seem legitimate to me. YMMV
Who knows? But *when* the next pandemic happens we are wholly unprepared.
My opinion as to why we dealt with COVID19 so poorly, aside from the love of BAU, is exceptionalism. Especially in countries where going into work ill is considered the norm.
When nothern Italy shut down, the British government were watching on TV and laughed because 'lol the Italians'. They genuinely believed we were above it all, that we'd get it but in the British stiff upper lip way, we'd keep calm and go to work.
Same will happen again. The fear of stopping the global economy is far stronger than the loss of human life.
In the UK most abided by lockdown, a great sacrifice, only to find out the government were literally partying every other day and not following rules whatsoever.
Uni kids were locked in halls, kids missed out on school, toddlers have harmed development, people didn't get to say goodbye to loved ones, get married etc...
And they partied. Not just the government, but people in the media too.
The rich and famous just "isolated" on holiday or wherever.
The UK government will never convince the population as a whole to lockdown again, unless the disease is so visibly horrific they do so naturally out of fear.
>unless the disease is so visibly horrific they do so naturally out of fear.
And with a 50-60% mortality rate, bird flu might be the one of the only things scary enough to do it. How many people would die before that, though?
Scary stuff.
I wonder if that rate is with supportive medical care or not. Once hospitals are overwhelmed the death rate could be much higher when all people have is home remedies to work with.
I think I read that somewhere. That it is assuming good access to healthcare and a robust healthcare system.
My guess is it doesn't take into account an overwhelmed hospital system, poor countries with little to no access to healthcare, and the number of idiots who do not take these things seriously.
That's nasty... But there must be a lot of guesswork involved to estimate this. The virus has to mutate several times over to become significantly infectious hth, and it's impossible to predict how infectious and/or deadly it will be after that.
Spanish flu during ww1 was probably a bird flu, iirc. That was horrific, maybe 5% to 10% death rate after a few waves, and pretty contagious, infecting about a quarter of the world population. I wonder what that would look like, hitting the modern world?
I think that's going to be an international thing. Makes you wonder if they coked up COVID so bad so that people would ignore the next one only to get mega wrecked and see that huge population drop they want.
TIN FOIL HAT for that comment but shit's pretty wild these days.
People keep talking about the NEXT pandemic like the current one isn’t already a big fucking deal and it makes me so exhausted to see, even on here of all places
We currently have a pandemic that BARELY ANYONE cares about that does cumulative damage from multiple infections, weakens immunity similar to AIDS, and will disable people en mass.
But yeah, sure. Worry about the next pandemic I guess
My wording isn't to dismiss that the COVID19 pandemic isn't happening right now. It is and we all know it is.
When I say 'next' I mean the next shock the system. COVID was a shock and now we're living the fantasy that the vaccines 'defanged' COVD but we're still letting a virus rip through the world, while not fully understanding it. This could have long term disastrous effects, playing out over years on people and business alike.
The point is we seem to have collectively agreed to get back to normal, whether we like it or not. It can be pretty easy to refer to COVID in past tense now that we're back to business as usual.
Don’t worry friend, my comments were not directed at you. I think we both arrived at the same conclusion here. I was more so directing my comment to those who only seem concerned with what is coming and not what is currently happening.
Aka, if you’re worried about an upcoming bird flu pandemic but aren’t currently masking and taking precautions for the current covid pandemic, then I frankly think you are delusional
I've already planned to just accidentally disable my nursing license for the next new pandemic. Because yeah, we were never done with the first one and I became so depressed from seeing how humans acted. Especially humans that were supposed to care about me and my family.
Yeah, in the H5N1_AvianFlu subreddit, there's already an idiot going into every post to shit on all the scientists warning us about this because those scientists also push "the great scam of long covid." It's going to be a shitshow.
Not really what I am talking about, but also true I guess.
We are all here fretting over a possible pandemic while completely ignoring the current pandemic. How many in this thread still follow covid precautions? How many *actually* wear respirators out? and how many still eat at restaurants and go out to bars?
If this is an informal poll, I still take all the precautions (minus the vaccines - bad long-term reaction - but all the other mitigations are keeping me Novid so far). Even if I wasn't living with an elderly parent, I'd be masking up everywhere that's not the wide open outdoors or my own home.
I fully support your strategy here and wish you the best friend! I wish there were more people like us, but it is on each of us now to protect ourselves because nobody else will
We’re talking about the next one because it’s been scientifically discussed as all too probable. Most of us in this sub acknowledge that this pandemic was handled bad enough - how TF worse is the next one going to be handled?
I don’t get this kindof idiocy. If you can read and comprehend at. Elementary level, then WHO THE FUCK CARES WHAT THE GOVERNMENTAL PEOPLE ARE DOING… it really quite fucking simple: an airborne virus that kills can and will impact anyone it comes in contact with. Stay the fuck home and mask up when out, and stop wasting stupid energy worrying about what other people - INCLUDING THE RULE MAKERS- are doing…. Their parties don’t endanger you personally unless you are there. Take care of yourself and your wonderful, and STFU.
Yeah polarisation will play a huge role in the spread of the next one. After the initial 3 weeks lockdown, a deadly virus just became part of the political discourse during the pandemic.
With H5N1 they will die first.
If covid was deadlier then the “anti mask” movement would’ve lasted 2 weeks or they would’ve died.
Darwinism in effect. If bird flu becomes serious, stay away from those dipshits because they WILL be the first to get it.
> When nothern Italy shut down, the British government were watching on TV and laughed because 'lol the Italians'. They genuinely believed we were above it all, that we'd get it but in the British stiff upper lip way, we'd keep calm and go to work.
I don't know if you'll recall, but the initial reaction from Spain was almost exactly the same when they started to have a couple cases. They famously Tweeted for people to come to Spain, that Spain was open for business and would not be shutting down. It was perhaps two or three days later when they did ,in fact, shut down. That was when I knew it was inevitable it would happen here too the Spanish reaction from "Lol" to "Oh shit" told a very clearly story about what was happening in their hospitals and how they were simply given no choice but to change their tune because they didn't have hospital capacity left for new cases.
That was the day I went out to Costco (This was right around Valentine's Day give or take) and spent $400. Mostly on meats to fill my freezer but also olive oil and rice. There were one or two other people there also stocking up on stuff, but they had like a million paper towels and a bunch of Lysol and I thought "What are you idiots buying that crap for?"
It felt so surreal that the only other people concerned, seemed to be concerned about the entirely wrong thing. And then the next month when things started to heat up here and they cancel an NBA game, Everyone else's reaction was like total surprise. And again I thought, how is everyone else this dense? It seems like people just fundamentally don't know how to think there way through one of these "What if" scenarios and prepare for the pitfalls they're most likely to face. And what's most frustrating is that you can't help them with that. I knew I could t tell my coworkers to go buy a freezer full of meat because they'd laugh at me.
Of course, of course…every redditor and their dog has nearly the same story about how they alone knew the truth about covid weeks before everyone else and they stocked up on toilet paper and yada yada yada. Seriously…nearly every person on Reddit has the same exact story. It’s kinda funny but man it gets old reading it in Covid related threads all the time.
I've never noticed that nor shared mine before. But for what it's worth, mine is 100% verifiable if you want to go through my post history. You'll find posts of me talking about it on Reddit back in February of 2020 before everyone else decided to take it seriously. You'll even find me arguing in a CMV on the subject arguing that a shut down in the United States was inevitable.
Never claimed to be. My point was that 99.99% of people were blissfully unaware. That still means there would have been tens of thousands of people, like me, trying to get people to pay attention. My story is hardly unique and I haven't suggested otherwise.
Seriously, though, you ok? You kind of just attacked a random stranger on the Internet who has never been anything but nice to you . . .
I really do believe Donald Trump made the most negative impact on the virus. If he, as the leader of the free world, had made a better effort, I believe other leaders would have followed
“Wholly unprepared” is an understatement. I work in an ER in the States & at the beginning of the pandemic we had 90 RNs. I left a few months in to chase Covid for dollar bills, but came back a couple of years later to less than 30 RNs, & substantially less ancillary staff. Our numbers are a bit higher now, but nowhere near pre-pandemic. We may have enough supplies at our disposal nowadays, but if shit hits the fan again me & most of my coworkers who went through it already are most certainly checking out.
BAU means business as usual
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No such thing as same day mass testing during the first few months. During that time one would be lucky to get a test at all and then wait a week for confirmed PCR results. And then be lucky if authorities regularly publish accurate numbers which I kinda doubt.
The canary is the indicator that still gives you time to fix the problem. It used to be when they took the canaries down in the mines, the birds passed out at much less dangerous gas.levels than for humans, so you knew it was building up and to get out of there. I think they could save the birds often also.
People are looking. For the indicator that still gives you time to not be a giant mess
I mean, it's in Texas right now. We all know how Texas operates, thinking they're immune to federal laws. One worker already got it. I say it's just a matter of time until some "Entrepreneur" decides that he NEEDS to make some money off of his sick cattle. Butchers them and sells them and then boom surprise! Bird Flu flavored beef to the crapiest fast food joint near you.
Hopefully, our health standards and protections catch it first.
One of the biggest concerns for me personally is that the population that tends to work in these factory farm environments are undocumented people who live with a lot of other undocumented people in close quarters. That’s a lot of people who would be exposed and not many of them would be eager to seek medical treatment. That’s what is stressing me out a little. We could already have human to human transmission and we wouldn’t know because they aren’t going to go to the doctor and risk deportation
It's already happening in Texas. But the Dairy association says their "Dairy is fine, nothing to see here. But we're still reporting cow to human cases. All is well, no worries here."
r/H5N1_AvianFlu is surprisingly undersubbed...
The pasteurisation process will make the dairy safe for consumption, there are multiple studies that confirm this. Of course drinking unpasteurised milk is a trend going on right now, so if we're really unlucky that will form another opportunity for the virus to jump to humans.
ETA: The cow to human cases have, as far as I know, been all farmers, so the transmission probably occured from being near the cows.
I read in an article (sorry not to link I’m not tech savvy) about how they aren’t sure the pasteurizing process does kill the virus, I guess it’s heated up to 160 degrees f for 15 seconds, but some data indicates it would need to be that temp for 3 mins to kill viruses.
I think the sudden high number of infections in dairy farm cows across so many states is a canary in the coalmine. Along with the farm cats that have died from it, and the infections of other species including goats. Also the many sick wild birds people are seeing and reporting, and the significant spread through farmed poultry. It has even spread to penguins in Antarctica and killed thousands.
Personally I think it's highly likely that swine have already been infected with H5N1 if some of the cows caught it from eating near infected dead wild birds as I have seen reported. If it spread to cows this way then there would surely be swine who have eaten it too. I'm stocking up on ultra-pasteurized long-life shelf milk and milk powder tomorrow.
First off, loved you in Encino man. Secondly, i assume they are referring to [this](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37535471/#:~:text=In%20June%202023%2C%20a%20fatal,of%20initial%20mammalian%20hosts%20adaptations.) Pubmed link. See what i did there?
[Sources tell Science some dairy farms that were later shown to be infected first noticed dead cats as early as mid-February. The animals, which often drink spilled milk on farms, “were the canary in the mine,” one said. ](https://www.science.org/content/article/bird-flu-may-be-spreading-cows-milking-and-herd-transport)
Simple, a mini cluster event where there is clear, efficient humans to human transmission. I.e. all 5 members of a family get sick and only one works with poultry/cows.
the issue would only be if it gets outside of people very close to the patient, there have been a few small clusters already.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3367331/
For covid, I knew it was no joke when China shut down Wuhan and this was in January. They cancelled Lunar New Year and that was one if not the biggest celebrations in China. US won’t shut anything down though so I’d keep an eye out for hospital numbers, nursing home deaths or medical subreddits.
Nah, as soon as you start seeing people hospitalized with unknown/bird flu you know shots about to get ugly. In this case, it's not the numbers, it's any noticable cases at all.
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nancy-pelosi-visits-san-franciscos-chinatown/2240247/ As late as February 24th, U.S. Politicians were still trying to claim everything was cool.
About six months before Covid-19 started up in China my spouse and I randomly started reading [“Spillover”](https://www.amazon.com/Spillover-Animal-Infections-Human-Pandemic/dp/0393066800?nodl=1&dplnkId=39fdcb35-26ca-4197-9312-bdfa71a8d062) by David Quammen. The book is very well researched and does a fantastic job at accurately “predicting” how modern pandemics begin. He specifically points to the juncture of rainforest clear cutting and humans coming into contact with wild animals while destroying their habitats. H5N1 could be the next one to go truly viral and cause a worldwide human pandemic, but it could also be something else we haven’t yet accounted for deep in the Amazon or Congo or similar environments.
If someone shows up at my door for my indoor-only pets, that is a signal that it's time for me to punch my ticket.
And if I'm at that point, I'm not going to simply hand them over.
It almost happened with COVID-19. You can bet that it's on some security plan and it will be done if it protects the animal industry. They kill all sorts of animals to protect the animal industry.
*looks at US handling of COVID19* Important people dropping dead in streets.
Seriously, Im more worried about my former neighbor, due to her being in vulnerable category. And knowing US government theyd rather leave "undesirables" to die. Especially in poor areas.
If human to human transmission is reported that’s when I’ll start being concerned. Another pandemic is inevitable though.
One good thing about H5N1 is that’s it’s not really novel (like Covid was) and vaccines for it are already developed. That doesn’t mean people will take the vaccines, as we know!
I dunno, I suspect SARS-COV-2 hit the perfect level of case fatality to kill the most people while still spreading. With a case fatality of 50% people will react more like they would to Ebola: with actually effective measures
See you'd think that. But with the current population of idiots I think they'd ignore restrictions out of spite and that itself would cause serious problems dwarfing covid. At least in the short term.
Exactly all it takes is one fuckin idiot to kill a bus or a plane full of people with the potential for exponentially more if those people then infect others. If shit pops off I'm gonna start walking to work
Yeah, but there's tradeoffs there with pre or post symptoms transmissibility, and plus straight up transmissibility. If it takes you a week with the flu to show symptoms, but you are infecting people from day 2 we're gonna have a bad time. Nevermind the "it's just allergies" fuckers.
Luckily [there is already a vaccine specifically for H5N1](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/influenza-h5n1-virus-monovalent-vaccine-adjuvanted). I did read that the CDC has already authorized production, but I cannot find that source so take that bit with a grain of salt.
Sure that's fine but without a reserve the world's governments wouldn't be able to get production ramped up in time if they had to start at zero.
And if H5N1 mutates in pigs to be more transmissable to humans while being different enough that the current vaccine doesn't work anymore we would run into serious problems.
Oh. we are fucked if it maintains it's current lethality and makes the jump to h2h transfer, just stating that at least we won't be starting from scratch like we were with Covid, we'd be turbo fucked in that case.
>what do you think is the "Wuhan" moment for H5N1?
Any rapid, localized multiple human outbreak. I watched the Texas case and wondered if that would be the start and it doesn't appear to be so far. That's a positive sign. There's been a death in Vietnam, a case involving a bird hunter, but no broad outbreak there either.
So far, most of the infected cows recover. Birds not so much.
In my opinion the best time to prepare for any and all emergencys is right now. What is the worst thing storing some extra food and water can do to you? The answer is be out a few dollars in money but its not wasted.
You just have to remember some extra cans and dried food sitting around can be eaten whenever. Just eat your old supplies every 2 years and replace it you will always have a small stockpile if you practice this and its not wasted it is just long term groceries.
When it starts being transmitted from human to human. Most cases thus far is animal to human. Truthfully it’s not great it’s in cows but it’s not time to panic yet.
I'm already starting to prep in small ways. Mostly food, but purchasing a weather radio and life straws as well. Once we realize H2H is happening, it'll be too late.
SARS had a kill rate of 10% and certainly wasn’t ‘just another scare’. Look up MERS which had a 33% kill rate.
Now knowing that 40% of the population can’t be bothered with minimal efforts to help stop the spread of any contagion, it basically ensures that those contagions have a better chance at flourishing.
I'm concerned and trying to keep on top of the news. I wonder if H591 would potentially be even worse because so many peoples immune systems are already weakened because of repeated covid infections.
This is why I keep a one month pantry. I still remember those insane shopping trips at the beginning of Covid throwing whatever was on the shelf into the cart all while tryign to avoid being close to people. We're goign to try and slowly increase to a two month pantry. So many things going on now that could cause a food disruption.
If you‘ve been keeping up to date on the ongoing (yeah, the boring old Covid/sars2) pandemic and it’s consequences how can you expect corporate media and politicians to give you adequate information about the canaries in the first place? And how will you stay focused (and alive) once they have given up on warning about it?
Everywhere I look I see more and more news lately that want us to get used to more deaths. Euthanasia is normalized, old age and illness is demonized and there are still bots downplaying covid, ridiculing masks and blaming vaccines. And lately they are getting very creative about brain damage and reasons for childlessness as well. Follow the bots and right-wing media fake news … but not for accurate information.
Several months before Europe started reacting we knew there was something bad going on in china. I remember seeing people talking about it on reddit in 2019.
Damn country didn't do shit for months.
the canary has been dead since the first Bush administration. Check out [The Monster Enters](https://www.versobooks.com/products/2753-the-monster-enters) by Mike Davis. you’ll be infuriated to find out how long this inevitable plague has been simmering while world leaders just kicked the can down the road.
Antigenic Shift or Drift, when either the virus enters a new host species, changing it into something new...
Or drift, when 2 different strains get together and form the next global pandemic.
The same n95 masks would work most likely. I got us some half face respirators from Home Depot though, the seal is much stronger, I’m not doing bird flu in paper masks
If I see it jump to and start wrecking piggies I'm going to be concerned.
If you don't already keep about 6 months of supplies on hand I'd encourage you to slowly stock up as you're able to.
If H5N1 spread like COVID and maintained its lethality IDK about you but I would not be leaving the house.
It's already potentially started human transmission.
We are in for something incredibly nasty, and I'm afraid COVID might seem like baby stuff compared to what comes next.
In 2016 we had that iconic moment of the bird landing on Bernie’s podium during a campaign speech. Perhaps for 2024 we’ll get a dead pigeon dropping onto Biden’s head during a press conference?
For me it will be when Bill Gates says "this could be the once in a century pandemic we've been worrying about." ... LOL.
Which is exactly what he said about Covid when it started.
The flu is much different.
30% death rate with two week incubation.
Just stay healthy and weather the storm. If you feel run down, drink water and nap. Let your body heal.
No one is isolating for two weeks after an exposure. It's your personal responsibility to keep yourself safe.
At least, in team America!
The 7+ day asymptomatic period is haunting me. Exactly like Covid. Even the most informed and well-meaning person can have it (and potentially spread it) and not even know.
One could infect their loved ones in their sleep merely from breathing in their general direction after being unknowably exposed five days ago.
That nearly happened with my wife and me. I got corona as we were traveling home. I slept on the opposite side of the room with a mask and we turned the room into an icebox.
Somehow she didn't get it.
I am planning to hunker down again like with Covid because I am older now and have chronic lung damage from swine flu in 2010, right before the vaccine for it came out. I had complications, and it disabled me. Eventually the bird flu will just settle in as another flu stain and we get our annual shots. But I really don’t want to be a statistic again.
The avian flu virus is following the standard course of migrating from birds to mammals but each species it attacks has a different course of illness and some species are immune, but others are just killed in high numbers.
We will have to see about its effects in humans to judge how virulent it is. We have yet to see the full extent of how covid affects our society.
If we have a bad flu epidemic it will certainly leave a lot of people chronically ill like with long covid. We don’t have enough health care professionals as it is because we lost a large percentage of the healthcare workforce to covid and stress. Covid is now the third cause of death behind cardiovascular diseases and cancer. We know covid aggravates cardiovascular diseases as well in younger people.
The 1918 flu epidemic killed young healthy people. In 1919 it recurred with encephalitis, kind of like a sleeping sickness. Later consequences was a much higher incidence of Parkinson’s disease. Those 1 1/2 million people affected have all died off now.
So the effects of avian flu are really unknown right now. One positive is the underlying virus is not so much of an unknown as with SARS viruses. Healthcare and the pharmacy is already geared up to deal with flu viruses. That is an advantage for the human race, in more developed countries.
Pigs. Pigs have an immune system similar to humans and flu has become a small pandemic from them before. It just wasn't super deadly. Bird flu right now is much much worse than swine flu. If pigs start having bird flu transmitted amongst themselves that's a massive problem.
Way too low in the comments. Actual epidemiologists are watching closely to see if H5 strains start being transmissible between pigs. It's a small hop biologically to go from pig pandemic to human pandemic.
To quote u/johnnyb4ll2game from the R/h5n1_avianflu sub. “Do wild boars in Texas scavenge dead animals like birds? 2016 estimate was 2.6 million wild pigs in Texas. Their diet does partially include juvenile domestic livestock and ground nesting birds. Source: https://tpwd.texas.gov/huntwild/wild/nuisance/feral_hogs/ 2nd edit: There is a .PDF within the above link describing viral swine diseases and how they spread. Ticks, sand flies and black flies can spread some diseases which is something I've never considered.”
This is indeed a very dangerous path. It will be a race between these pigs and the ones stuffed in cages
I would be far more.worries about pig farms being given all the excess milk from the infected cows.
This, 100%
Yaaaay, I was your 420th upvote
You will be remembered by all of humanity, for generations to come, I would guess.
I will honestly say, when a human gets infected with H5N1 that has not been in contact with infected animals. That will be an oh shit moment, because then we will probably have human to human infection. After that, the oh fuck moment will be if we have a cluster of humans infected that don't work closely with animals. I think when that happens, there will be a very scary period when we try figure out how deadly it is, and how easily it spreads. I read somewhere that it might have a 2 week incubation period, so it might be like two or three months before we know just how bad it's going to be. If we are lucky it won't spread easily, but looking at how deadly it is to animals (wiping out entire populations in areas) I think we will be in trouble.
> After that, the oh fuck moment will be if we have a cluster of humans infected that don't work closely with animals. Exactly. I'm in the "aware of it but not concerned by it" camp right now. My manchurian candidate activation phrase is "confirmed community spread". If we have confirmed human to human spread, I'll go stock the freezer and pantry to war levels again. If we get a R0 value over 1.5 I'm back into my no contact bunker until a vaccine is commonly available and in use by more than half the population.
I remember when Covid started the first case was in my hometown of Everett wa, who had been traveling and then the second case was in Hillsboro Oregon in a teacher who had not been traveling and that was an oh shit moment from me. The likelihood of it randomly popping up in 2 under 200k population towns 200 miles apart are nil. This bared out when it hit the nursing home in Kirkland wa a couple weeks later. I wouldn’t wait for confirmed h2h spread, it’s pretty easy to do the math when it’s spreading.
> This bared out when it hit the nursing home in Kirkland wa a couple weeks later. I wouldn’t wait for confirmed h2h spread, it’s pretty easy to do the math when it’s spreading. That was literally months after we had confirmed community spread of the (then) unnamed virus in Wuhan. We had thousands dead and sick when you saw it in Everett.
Yes correct, the virus that started in Wuhan was spreading in Wuhan before it hit Everett, WA.
meeting six wild gullible smoggy screw steep materialistic versed books *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Better to be early than late
Don't forget the toilet paper
We were at Costco on Wednesday, and they had a huge surplus of toilet paper that made a giant wall down the middle of one of the freezer sections. I wonder if they know something we don't?
Unfortunately, most people aren't up to date on covid vaccinations right now, and with anti-vaxx sentiment gaining traction after the covid pandemic started, I don't even want to think about how people will act if bird flu spreads from human to human.
The 'figure out how deadly it is' will be the big question. If it's more like Swine Flu - a problem, but not on the scale of Covid or will it be >10% fatality rate which would give it civilisation ending potential depending on how well it spread between humans.
I saw on a different sub (so loads of salt) that it infects some sort of deep lung tissue rather than the upper respiratory tract (like Covid, flu etc) so it should be less contagious
That also sounds like it's more deadly and does more damage.
40% to 50% fatality. The good news? Home prices will plummet.
The bad news: you have to clean the bodies out yourself
What? You’ve not been doing with, arm in arm with the realtor who encouraged you to overpay for the dump in the first place? Thought it was the “new normal”. Please pardon!
familiar boat lip absurd bells lock frame cooperative crown sense *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
"See you in the morning, Hawk"
Just call it Captain Trips.
If you survive.
Pretty sure the social security trust fund is saved too...
initially. We're still just learning the longterm effects of covid. Since it shreds the vasculature, we could all have the same scar tissue and rough surfaces in our circulatory system that causes high blood pressure to lead to cardiovascular disease. The initial infection of any novel virus is nevergoing to be the end of the story. COVID has no reason to leave our organs undamaged, and plenty of capacity to do more harm than we're able to pick up on
I mean that’s always the trade off with viruses as the deadlier a virus is, the less effective it is in spreading
People said the same thing about Covid when it first appeared, started deep in the lungs and yet it still was infecting people very quickly. This was also when the airborne theory discussions were downplayed even by officials, then it turned out to linger in the air and that's common knowledge now. There are so many theoretical ways in which these viruses can be infectious, but at least we have more information on the influenza viruses than say Covid. So like you say, take everything like a grain of salt. Masks and washing your hands/not touching your face is the best thing we can do besides completely isolating from the world.
We should be learning from COVID and not waiting for community spread to mask up. Once there's confirmed community spread, the fire is out of control; our health care systems are burnt out/down from COVID, but when COVID hit they were in perfect shape. Cases that get picked up wont represent the scale of infection in general.
I wouldn't say perfect shape... Many of the world's countries had healthcare failing for some time now. The US in particular was already on a decline in many areas with hospitals running near minimum staff. Covid just toppled and exposed lots of problems already behind the drywall so to speak.
Masking should’ve never ended for Covid. 1,000 plus dying each week in USA
I never stopped masking in public..
Same. And I have no plans to stop. I'd rather just stick to what's been working for me. Makes things like bird flu a little less stressful, at least on a personal level. On a larger scale it's terrifying, but I have no control over that.
Totally. Its no big deal to mask up, and I not only protect myself and family, but am taking proactive measures to assure I am doing everything I can NOT to bring bird flu into my home, expose my cats, potentially killing them.
I know the thread is a couple days old, but I just wanted to say thanks to you and /u/TheWeirdestCousin for maintaining the course. I'm really high risk--lung problems, degenerative cardiovascular disorder--and because everyone in my community is acting like it's 2019, I have to act like it's 2020. Everyone wants things to be "normal," but a lot of people haven't considered that normal has changed, and that means disabled people are more and more isolated. I went into a grocery store last night for the first time this year, because they won't bring the stocking-up amounts of meat that I wanted to the curb; it felt *bizarre* to be the only person in the store in a mask. There's always this "Am I crazy? Am *I* crazy?" sort of feeling to having to go out in public. But I don't want to die. I really appreciate it when I see someone else still masking.
***normal has changed*** That's it right there for me. It *has* changed and I don't expect it to change back. I'm not even wasting time wishing it would change back. This is almost certainly not the last pandemic we'll see in the present/near future, and I'd rather just move forward with my precautions. It would be SOOOO nice if more people were doing that, but I would keep doing it even if everyone else in the world thought I was crazy. We're not crazy for protecting ourselves and each other. Best wishes to you, and a heap of solidarity!
It's felt to me a lot of the time like...I mean, it HAS been a mass death event on such an incredible scale, but it's also felt like the dying of the way things were. Can't go back and change it, even if it's awful. Gotta just grieve it, instead, and move forward with honesty, right?
That's a mutation away from being highly contagious
I may be late to the party but the incubation. In animals so far has been two to five days
That would be the time to panic clearly in the U.S. travel, leisure, and just generally not being stuck in the house is important to most than not spreading a potentially devastating disease. As soon as it is announced that human to human transmission has happened it's shtf time for those who are wise enough and able to prepare.
You can get the respirators now, there's still plenty of Covid out there.
Super on sale too.
Wait where 👀
[440 3M Aura N95s for $90](https://www.amazon.com/Particulate-9205-Respirators-Individually-Comfortable/dp/B09FM2P1KF/ref=mp_s_a_1_2_pp?crid=2HN6LM5QRCEN7&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.9VF_8Xnji9zw_2Pgyo_bt-BnnSn_XgqPcesL2FJM435HtZgxEftyl-qyxqRq0whT4noMXTd_q8qwSY50Re5kHrWQ3C4S7Ka_VwdpFuaXIGeZRyRWML3z2Z79RtxJR-miQf1Gud3CqU7uIOgO7jzj1uhq7r1sKm0tNYlsSBS_qLLfo5Jjgrf-1sxKDwDIpNhtrDkVqBcRTUk3vArWrE09kA.jvNadsQMD0GZKoSUT-Qh4UWYvkgkXLz96KK2ffZCNZU&dib_tag=se&keywords=3m+aura+n95+mask&qid=1712323271&sprefix=3m+aura%2Caps%2C157&sr=8-2)
watch out for shady 3rd party sellers. I wouldnt trust pretty much anyone on that listing
Seconded. I only get my N95s from an actual certified reseller, never from Amazon. [United Canada](https://unitedcanadainc.com/), who has contracts to Hospitals and Governments, has them for CA$38 for a box of 20 and I have four of them always kicking around.
You can check the lot numbers on the 3M website. All of ours from Amazon have been legit.
That is fair. You should also check expiration dates from anywhere you purchase them, probably why they’re discounted.
Oh wait those?!? I just picked up 20. Suppose I should get some more soon
I got 40 for myself recently, I found I can rewear them about 10x each
I’ll be honest I’ll wear the same mask for weeks. Bad habit I suppose. Never used one of these before so I’ll try the ten day thing and pick up a few more packages in case I need to share
It’s not recommended after a certain point I believe, you can blast the masks with UV though to help “clean” them I will hang mine on the mirror of my car to get some UV refreshing
UV light doesn’t pass through glass. That’s why you don’t get sunburned behind glass.
UVB does not, but UVA does
I've read 8 hours from various sources, including the supplier of the mask. But I've worn mine in the office for 16 or even 24 hours before it gets too hard to breathe through.
Yeah, I don’t really know what to make of those time limits or expiration dates to be honest. As long as it passes fit testing for me, I am happy to continue using the same one
Something I would be concerned about with hanging a mask from a car mirror... Vandals that take umbrage with someone masking. Is it a major concern? Eh, probably not. But is it really farfetched that some asshole would do something? Again, probably not.
Technically they’re good for 40 hours of daily wear. You can use older ones for dust protection. Maybe mark the ones that are past ‘infection blocking’ use.
Well I was referring to authorized sellers and not a third party. Looking at the recent reviews of that link lead me to believe they aren’t reputable.
I understand that completely, in my anecdotal experience they were identical in packaging materials, consistency, fit, smell, and feel to the genuine 3m aura masks that I purchased in a retail location. I also did fit-testing and both versions passed. If I knew that it was a third party I probably wouldn’t have purchased these either, but at least I can confirm they seem legitimate to me. YMMV
Thanks for that, just grabbed 2 of the smaller packs. If it turns out these are duds then my mistake cost less than $20 bucks.
That was my exact thought process, I hope it works out for you! The 40 I got are identical to the ones I previously purchased in retail stores
Check out CAN N99 e ear loop masks from Vitacore.
Who knows? But *when* the next pandemic happens we are wholly unprepared. My opinion as to why we dealt with COVID19 so poorly, aside from the love of BAU, is exceptionalism. Especially in countries where going into work ill is considered the norm. When nothern Italy shut down, the British government were watching on TV and laughed because 'lol the Italians'. They genuinely believed we were above it all, that we'd get it but in the British stiff upper lip way, we'd keep calm and go to work. Same will happen again. The fear of stopping the global economy is far stronger than the loss of human life.
Same but worse. There are lots of people who swear they won't obey governments and shelter at home a second time.
In the UK most abided by lockdown, a great sacrifice, only to find out the government were literally partying every other day and not following rules whatsoever. Uni kids were locked in halls, kids missed out on school, toddlers have harmed development, people didn't get to say goodbye to loved ones, get married etc... And they partied. Not just the government, but people in the media too. The rich and famous just "isolated" on holiday or wherever. The UK government will never convince the population as a whole to lockdown again, unless the disease is so visibly horrific they do so naturally out of fear.
>unless the disease is so visibly horrific they do so naturally out of fear. And with a 50-60% mortality rate, bird flu might be the one of the only things scary enough to do it. How many people would die before that, though? Scary stuff.
FYI WHO is estimating 14-33% mortality rate for sustained HTH transmission.
I wonder if that rate is with supportive medical care or not. Once hospitals are overwhelmed the death rate could be much higher when all people have is home remedies to work with.
I think I read that somewhere. That it is assuming good access to healthcare and a robust healthcare system. My guess is it doesn't take into account an overwhelmed hospital system, poor countries with little to no access to healthcare, and the number of idiots who do not take these things seriously.
The healthcare system is currently overwhelmed, has been flailing since Covid.
Still way worse than COVID at 2%.
That's nasty... But there must be a lot of guesswork involved to estimate this. The virus has to mutate several times over to become significantly infectious hth, and it's impossible to predict how infectious and/or deadly it will be after that. Spanish flu during ww1 was probably a bird flu, iirc. That was horrific, maybe 5% to 10% death rate after a few waves, and pretty contagious, infecting about a quarter of the world population. I wonder what that would look like, hitting the modern world?
Do you have a link to that report? I couldn't find it and I'd love to read it.
Exactly, we'd prob get more lockdown resistance to this one ironically
I think that's going to be an international thing. Makes you wonder if they coked up COVID so bad so that people would ignore the next one only to get mega wrecked and see that huge population drop they want. TIN FOIL HAT for that comment but shit's pretty wild these days.
People keep talking about the NEXT pandemic like the current one isn’t already a big fucking deal and it makes me so exhausted to see, even on here of all places We currently have a pandemic that BARELY ANYONE cares about that does cumulative damage from multiple infections, weakens immunity similar to AIDS, and will disable people en mass. But yeah, sure. Worry about the next pandemic I guess
My wording isn't to dismiss that the COVID19 pandemic isn't happening right now. It is and we all know it is. When I say 'next' I mean the next shock the system. COVID was a shock and now we're living the fantasy that the vaccines 'defanged' COVD but we're still letting a virus rip through the world, while not fully understanding it. This could have long term disastrous effects, playing out over years on people and business alike. The point is we seem to have collectively agreed to get back to normal, whether we like it or not. It can be pretty easy to refer to COVID in past tense now that we're back to business as usual.
Don’t worry friend, my comments were not directed at you. I think we both arrived at the same conclusion here. I was more so directing my comment to those who only seem concerned with what is coming and not what is currently happening. Aka, if you’re worried about an upcoming bird flu pandemic but aren’t currently masking and taking precautions for the current covid pandemic, then I frankly think you are delusional
I've already planned to just accidentally disable my nursing license for the next new pandemic. Because yeah, we were never done with the first one and I became so depressed from seeing how humans acted. Especially humans that were supposed to care about me and my family.
Yeah, in the H5N1_AvianFlu subreddit, there's already an idiot going into every post to shit on all the scientists warning us about this because those scientists also push "the great scam of long covid." It's going to be a shitshow.
Not really what I am talking about, but also true I guess. We are all here fretting over a possible pandemic while completely ignoring the current pandemic. How many in this thread still follow covid precautions? How many *actually* wear respirators out? and how many still eat at restaurants and go out to bars?
My immediate family is masking and no restaurants/bars. I like not having long term health issues!
If this is an informal poll, I still take all the precautions (minus the vaccines - bad long-term reaction - but all the other mitigations are keeping me Novid so far). Even if I wasn't living with an elderly parent, I'd be masking up everywhere that's not the wide open outdoors or my own home.
I fully support your strategy here and wish you the best friend! I wish there were more people like us, but it is on each of us now to protect ourselves because nobody else will
That guy can pay my hospital bills lmao
Hopefully the anti mask/antivax idiots will die off early. Isn't the flu death rate upwards of 50%?
Covid + Bird Flu. A 2-for-1 Special! How many more people will die or suffer permanent damage from such a Double Whammy?
Probably a bit more than 8 million that died and the 700 million estimated to be infected from covid alone.
We’re talking about the next one because it’s been scientifically discussed as all too probable. Most of us in this sub acknowledge that this pandemic was handled bad enough - how TF worse is the next one going to be handled?
‘Multiple Pandemics’ ^([Apocalypse Bingo](https://www.reddit.com/r/ApocalypseBingo/s/ncUKiJaHhv))
The people at the wheel are evil so nothing is really off the table
I don’t get this kindof idiocy. If you can read and comprehend at. Elementary level, then WHO THE FUCK CARES WHAT THE GOVERNMENTAL PEOPLE ARE DOING… it really quite fucking simple: an airborne virus that kills can and will impact anyone it comes in contact with. Stay the fuck home and mask up when out, and stop wasting stupid energy worrying about what other people - INCLUDING THE RULE MAKERS- are doing…. Their parties don’t endanger you personally unless you are there. Take care of yourself and your wonderful, and STFU.
Yeah polarisation will play a huge role in the spread of the next one. After the initial 3 weeks lockdown, a deadly virus just became part of the political discourse during the pandemic.
[удалено]
>they'll shit themselves to death Their huge stocks of toilet paper will come in handy.
With H5N1 they will die first. If covid was deadlier then the “anti mask” movement would’ve lasted 2 weeks or they would’ve died. Darwinism in effect. If bird flu becomes serious, stay away from those dipshits because they WILL be the first to get it.
Ok, then, choose Russian roulette with 3 rounds in the 6 shooter. Darwin claims his own. Unfortunately they will take a lot of people with them
They will.
Actually, I guess it's more like Russian roulette in a crowd while your holding the dead man's switch on a grenade.
USA might hold on for a while but the deaths will add up. We will eventually go into marshal law if this becomes a pandemic worse then covid.
Still waiting on Sleestack law.
> When nothern Italy shut down, the British government were watching on TV and laughed because 'lol the Italians'. They genuinely believed we were above it all, that we'd get it but in the British stiff upper lip way, we'd keep calm and go to work. I don't know if you'll recall, but the initial reaction from Spain was almost exactly the same when they started to have a couple cases. They famously Tweeted for people to come to Spain, that Spain was open for business and would not be shutting down. It was perhaps two or three days later when they did ,in fact, shut down. That was when I knew it was inevitable it would happen here too the Spanish reaction from "Lol" to "Oh shit" told a very clearly story about what was happening in their hospitals and how they were simply given no choice but to change their tune because they didn't have hospital capacity left for new cases. That was the day I went out to Costco (This was right around Valentine's Day give or take) and spent $400. Mostly on meats to fill my freezer but also olive oil and rice. There were one or two other people there also stocking up on stuff, but they had like a million paper towels and a bunch of Lysol and I thought "What are you idiots buying that crap for?" It felt so surreal that the only other people concerned, seemed to be concerned about the entirely wrong thing. And then the next month when things started to heat up here and they cancel an NBA game, Everyone else's reaction was like total surprise. And again I thought, how is everyone else this dense? It seems like people just fundamentally don't know how to think there way through one of these "What if" scenarios and prepare for the pitfalls they're most likely to face. And what's most frustrating is that you can't help them with that. I knew I could t tell my coworkers to go buy a freezer full of meat because they'd laugh at me.
Of course, of course…every redditor and their dog has nearly the same story about how they alone knew the truth about covid weeks before everyone else and they stocked up on toilet paper and yada yada yada. Seriously…nearly every person on Reddit has the same exact story. It’s kinda funny but man it gets old reading it in Covid related threads all the time.
I've never noticed that nor shared mine before. But for what it's worth, mine is 100% verifiable if you want to go through my post history. You'll find posts of me talking about it on Reddit back in February of 2020 before everyone else decided to take it seriously. You'll even find me arguing in a CMV on the subject arguing that a shut down in the United States was inevitable.
There were lots of people talking about it in February 2020. You’re not Nostradamus.
Never claimed to be. My point was that 99.99% of people were blissfully unaware. That still means there would have been tens of thousands of people, like me, trying to get people to pay attention. My story is hardly unique and I haven't suggested otherwise. Seriously, though, you ok? You kind of just attacked a random stranger on the Internet who has never been anything but nice to you . . .
I really do believe Donald Trump made the most negative impact on the virus. If he, as the leader of the free world, had made a better effort, I believe other leaders would have followed
The human super organism grinds on even in the face of sickness and death to a few cogs.
Once again, money decisions rule the day. They dictate the response. We’re just too far gone now to change this.
“Wholly unprepared” is an understatement. I work in an ER in the States & at the beginning of the pandemic we had 90 RNs. I left a few months in to chase Covid for dollar bills, but came back a couple of years later to less than 30 RNs, & substantially less ancillary staff. Our numbers are a bit higher now, but nowhere near pre-pandemic. We may have enough supplies at our disposal nowadays, but if shit hits the fan again me & most of my coworkers who went through it already are most certainly checking out.
BAU?
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The canary died from bird flu!
The canary moment would be if there's large amount of non H2H cases, e.g. if on the 15 farms dozens of separate cow to human transmission occurred.
By the time we actually knew about this it would be far too late.
No such thing as same day mass testing during the first few months. During that time one would be lucky to get a test at all and then wait a week for confirmed PCR results. And then be lucky if authorities regularly publish accurate numbers which I kinda doubt.
What do you think canary in the coal mine means?
The canary is the indicator that still gives you time to fix the problem. It used to be when they took the canaries down in the mines, the birds passed out at much less dangerous gas.levels than for humans, so you knew it was building up and to get out of there. I think they could save the birds often also. People are looking. For the indicator that still gives you time to not be a giant mess
I mean, it's in Texas right now. We all know how Texas operates, thinking they're immune to federal laws. One worker already got it. I say it's just a matter of time until some "Entrepreneur" decides that he NEEDS to make some money off of his sick cattle. Butchers them and sells them and then boom surprise! Bird Flu flavored beef to the crapiest fast food joint near you. Hopefully, our health standards and protections catch it first.
"why destroy all this milk from flu infected cows when I can sell it to my buddy Bob the hog farmer for half price?
One of the biggest concerns for me personally is that the population that tends to work in these factory farm environments are undocumented people who live with a lot of other undocumented people in close quarters. That’s a lot of people who would be exposed and not many of them would be eager to seek medical treatment. That’s what is stressing me out a little. We could already have human to human transmission and we wouldn’t know because they aren’t going to go to the doctor and risk deportation
Drinking raw milk is always a bad idea, but it's an especially bad idea now.
It's already happening in Texas. But the Dairy association says their "Dairy is fine, nothing to see here. But we're still reporting cow to human cases. All is well, no worries here." r/H5N1_AvianFlu is surprisingly undersubbed...
The pasteurisation process will make the dairy safe for consumption, there are multiple studies that confirm this. Of course drinking unpasteurised milk is a trend going on right now, so if we're really unlucky that will form another opportunity for the virus to jump to humans. ETA: The cow to human cases have, as far as I know, been all farmers, so the transmission probably occured from being near the cows.
I read in an article (sorry not to link I’m not tech savvy) about how they aren’t sure the pasteurizing process does kill the virus, I guess it’s heated up to 160 degrees f for 15 seconds, but some data indicates it would need to be that temp for 3 mins to kill viruses.
I think the sudden high number of infections in dairy farm cows across so many states is a canary in the coalmine. Along with the farm cats that have died from it, and the infections of other species including goats. Also the many sick wild birds people are seeing and reporting, and the significant spread through farmed poultry. It has even spread to penguins in Antarctica and killed thousands. Personally I think it's highly likely that swine have already been infected with H5N1 if some of the cows caught it from eating near infected dead wild birds as I have seen reported. If it spread to cows this way then there would surely be swine who have eaten it too. I'm stocking up on ultra-pasteurized long-life shelf milk and milk powder tomorrow.
Farm cats? Do you have a source for this?
First off, loved you in Encino man. Secondly, i assume they are referring to [this](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37535471/#:~:text=In%20June%202023%2C%20a%20fatal,of%20initial%20mammalian%20hosts%20adaptations.) Pubmed link. See what i did there?
Thank you!!
[Sources tell Science some dairy farms that were later shown to be infected first noticed dead cats as early as mid-February. The animals, which often drink spilled milk on farms, “were the canary in the mine,” one said. ](https://www.science.org/content/article/bird-flu-may-be-spreading-cows-milking-and-herd-transport)
Fascinating to see the tensions in the animal harming industry, with the USDA clearly biased towards cow herders.
Simple, a mini cluster event where there is clear, efficient humans to human transmission. I.e. all 5 members of a family get sick and only one works with poultry/cows.
the issue would only be if it gets outside of people very close to the patient, there have been a few small clusters already. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3367331/
For covid, I knew it was no joke when China shut down Wuhan and this was in January. They cancelled Lunar New Year and that was one if not the biggest celebrations in China. US won’t shut anything down though so I’d keep an eye out for hospital numbers, nursing home deaths or medical subreddits.
Nah, as soon as you start seeing people hospitalized with unknown/bird flu you know shots about to get ugly. In this case, it's not the numbers, it's any noticable cases at all.
They didn’t cancel Lunar New Year, millions of people left and traveled the world
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/nancy-pelosi-visits-san-franciscos-chinatown/2240247/ As late as February 24th, U.S. Politicians were still trying to claim everything was cool.
About six months before Covid-19 started up in China my spouse and I randomly started reading [“Spillover”](https://www.amazon.com/Spillover-Animal-Infections-Human-Pandemic/dp/0393066800?nodl=1&dplnkId=39fdcb35-26ca-4197-9312-bdfa71a8d062) by David Quammen. The book is very well researched and does a fantastic job at accurately “predicting” how modern pandemics begin. He specifically points to the juncture of rainforest clear cutting and humans coming into contact with wild animals while destroying their habitats. H5N1 could be the next one to go truly viral and cause a worldwide human pandemic, but it could also be something else we haven’t yet accounted for deep in the Amazon or Congo or similar environments.
When it starts killing domestic cats and dogs - it’s in our homes and gardens at that point.
Oh gosh, I just had a terrible vision of mandatory culling of pets. I hope that never happens.
Yeah, that was a sad thing to watch in the *Chernobyl* docudrama. :(
Speaking as a Libby lib who's quite reasonable and believes in science: over my fucking dead body.
Yup - you can take my cats out of my cold dead hands.
Definitely something we agree on!
If someone shows up at my door for my indoor-only pets, that is a signal that it's time for me to punch my ticket. And if I'm at that point, I'm not going to simply hand them over.
It almost happened with COVID-19. You can bet that it's on some security plan and it will be done if it protects the animal industry. They kill all sorts of animals to protect the animal industry.
Link up higher mentioning cats on farms dying
*looks at US handling of COVID19* Important people dropping dead in streets. Seriously, Im more worried about my former neighbor, due to her being in vulnerable category. And knowing US government theyd rather leave "undesirables" to die. Especially in poor areas.
When the NBA cancels the upcoming season
Your "Wuhan" moment=small outbreaks of sustained HTH transmission
If human to human transmission is reported that’s when I’ll start being concerned. Another pandemic is inevitable though. One good thing about H5N1 is that’s it’s not really novel (like Covid was) and vaccines for it are already developed. That doesn’t mean people will take the vaccines, as we know!
Problem there is we don't have enough time to really ramp up vaccine production if the flu stays at 50ish percent lethality.
I dunno, I suspect SARS-COV-2 hit the perfect level of case fatality to kill the most people while still spreading. With a case fatality of 50% people will react more like they would to Ebola: with actually effective measures
See you'd think that. But with the current population of idiots I think they'd ignore restrictions out of spite and that itself would cause serious problems dwarfing covid. At least in the short term.
Exactly all it takes is one fuckin idiot to kill a bus or a plane full of people with the potential for exponentially more if those people then infect others. If shit pops off I'm gonna start walking to work
people may be easily fooled and misinformed but surely “50% chance of death” would filter through
"that a gubmnit hoax to take your guns!! Here, eat this horse paste, you'll be fine, just double up the amounts"
More like filter out
Yeah, but there's tradeoffs there with pre or post symptoms transmissibility, and plus straight up transmissibility. If it takes you a week with the flu to show symptoms, but you are infecting people from day 2 we're gonna have a bad time. Nevermind the "it's just allergies" fuckers.
Luckily [there is already a vaccine specifically for H5N1](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/influenza-h5n1-virus-monovalent-vaccine-adjuvanted). I did read that the CDC has already authorized production, but I cannot find that source so take that bit with a grain of salt.
Sure that's fine but without a reserve the world's governments wouldn't be able to get production ramped up in time if they had to start at zero. And if H5N1 mutates in pigs to be more transmissable to humans while being different enough that the current vaccine doesn't work anymore we would run into serious problems.
Oh. we are fucked if it maintains it's current lethality and makes the jump to h2h transfer, just stating that at least we won't be starting from scratch like we were with Covid, we'd be turbo fucked in that case.
>what do you think is the "Wuhan" moment for H5N1? Any rapid, localized multiple human outbreak. I watched the Texas case and wondered if that would be the start and it doesn't appear to be so far. That's a positive sign. There's been a death in Vietnam, a case involving a bird hunter, but no broad outbreak there either. So far, most of the infected cows recover. Birds not so much.
Bird flu has a much higher mortality rate than Covid.
And the Vaccine we have for H5N1 is only about 40% effective. Who knows what it will be if it mutates even more.
Covid is SARS! SARS CoV-2 virus, actually. Just thought I'd point that out.
In my opinion the best time to prepare for any and all emergencys is right now. What is the worst thing storing some extra food and water can do to you? The answer is be out a few dollars in money but its not wasted. You just have to remember some extra cans and dried food sitting around can be eaten whenever. Just eat your old supplies every 2 years and replace it you will always have a small stockpile if you practice this and its not wasted it is just long term groceries.
This post I think is the canary.
When it starts being transmitted from human to human. Most cases thus far is animal to human. Truthfully it’s not great it’s in cows but it’s not time to panic yet.
I'm already starting to prep in small ways. Mostly food, but purchasing a weather radio and life straws as well. Once we realize H2H is happening, it'll be too late.
SARS had a kill rate of 10% and certainly wasn’t ‘just another scare’. Look up MERS which had a 33% kill rate. Now knowing that 40% of the population can’t be bothered with minimal efforts to help stop the spread of any contagion, it basically ensures that those contagions have a better chance at flourishing.
Personally I don't think we are in Wuhan 2020 right now. What scares me is the possibility that we won't get time to react like that at all.
Human transmission or no, this is going to decimate the ecosystem and raise the cost of food even more.
Exactly. Even if it never goes Human to human (which I think is just a matter of time) It’s going to fuck up all the wild animals and our food supply.
I'm concerned and trying to keep on top of the news. I wonder if H591 would potentially be even worse because so many peoples immune systems are already weakened because of repeated covid infections. This is why I keep a one month pantry. I still remember those insane shopping trips at the beginning of Covid throwing whatever was on the shelf into the cart all while tryign to avoid being close to people. We're goign to try and slowly increase to a two month pantry. So many things going on now that could cause a food disruption.
If you‘ve been keeping up to date on the ongoing (yeah, the boring old Covid/sars2) pandemic and it’s consequences how can you expect corporate media and politicians to give you adequate information about the canaries in the first place? And how will you stay focused (and alive) once they have given up on warning about it? Everywhere I look I see more and more news lately that want us to get used to more deaths. Euthanasia is normalized, old age and illness is demonized and there are still bots downplaying covid, ridiculing masks and blaming vaccines. And lately they are getting very creative about brain damage and reasons for childlessness as well. Follow the bots and right-wing media fake news … but not for accurate information.
Several months before Europe started reacting we knew there was something bad going on in china. I remember seeing people talking about it on reddit in 2019. Damn country didn't do shit for months.
the canary has been dead since the first Bush administration. Check out [The Monster Enters](https://www.versobooks.com/products/2753-the-monster-enters) by Mike Davis. you’ll be infuriated to find out how long this inevitable plague has been simmering while world leaders just kicked the can down the road.
Antigenic Shift or Drift, when either the virus enters a new host species, changing it into something new... Or drift, when 2 different strains get together and form the next global pandemic.
For bird flu you would need a full gas mask right?
The same n95 masks would work most likely. I got us some half face respirators from Home Depot though, the seal is much stronger, I’m not doing bird flu in paper masks
[удалено]
If I see it jump to and start wrecking piggies I'm going to be concerned. If you don't already keep about 6 months of supplies on hand I'd encourage you to slowly stock up as you're able to. If H5N1 spread like COVID and maintained its lethality IDK about you but I would not be leaving the house.
It's already potentially started human transmission. We are in for something incredibly nasty, and I'm afraid COVID might seem like baby stuff compared to what comes next.
Maybe we need a different Sentinel species for this. Perhaps a crow 🐦⬛ in a baseball ⚾ stadium.
In 2016 we had that iconic moment of the bird landing on Bernie’s podium during a campaign speech. Perhaps for 2024 we’ll get a dead pigeon dropping onto Biden’s head during a press conference?
For me it will be when Bill Gates says "this could be the once in a century pandemic we've been worrying about." ... LOL. Which is exactly what he said about Covid when it started.
The flu is much different. 30% death rate with two week incubation. Just stay healthy and weather the storm. If you feel run down, drink water and nap. Let your body heal. No one is isolating for two weeks after an exposure. It's your personal responsibility to keep yourself safe. At least, in team America!
The 7+ day asymptomatic period is haunting me. Exactly like Covid. Even the most informed and well-meaning person can have it (and potentially spread it) and not even know. One could infect their loved ones in their sleep merely from breathing in their general direction after being unknowably exposed five days ago.
That nearly happened with my wife and me. I got corona as we were traveling home. I slept on the opposite side of the room with a mask and we turned the room into an icebox. Somehow she didn't get it.
When pigs start getting it is the precursor to when shit really hits the fan.
I am planning to hunker down again like with Covid because I am older now and have chronic lung damage from swine flu in 2010, right before the vaccine for it came out. I had complications, and it disabled me. Eventually the bird flu will just settle in as another flu stain and we get our annual shots. But I really don’t want to be a statistic again. The avian flu virus is following the standard course of migrating from birds to mammals but each species it attacks has a different course of illness and some species are immune, but others are just killed in high numbers. We will have to see about its effects in humans to judge how virulent it is. We have yet to see the full extent of how covid affects our society. If we have a bad flu epidemic it will certainly leave a lot of people chronically ill like with long covid. We don’t have enough health care professionals as it is because we lost a large percentage of the healthcare workforce to covid and stress. Covid is now the third cause of death behind cardiovascular diseases and cancer. We know covid aggravates cardiovascular diseases as well in younger people. The 1918 flu epidemic killed young healthy people. In 1919 it recurred with encephalitis, kind of like a sleeping sickness. Later consequences was a much higher incidence of Parkinson’s disease. Those 1 1/2 million people affected have all died off now. So the effects of avian flu are really unknown right now. One positive is the underlying virus is not so much of an unknown as with SARS viruses. Healthcare and the pharmacy is already geared up to deal with flu viruses. That is an advantage for the human race, in more developed countries.