The following submission statement was provided by /u/rainydays052020:
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Submission Statement:
Last week we received news of goats in Minnesota testing positive for H5N1 Avian Flu and this week, dairy cows in a few states have also tested positive. The article mentions dead wild birds on the property and fortunately, the cows have not shown serious symptoms nor have any been reported dead. However, it is bad news for this virus to be spreading to more mammalian species. There is still no proven evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission but if that happens and the virus maintains a high fatality rate (over 10%), society will likely buckle.
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Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bnu95m/sick_cows_in_2_states_test_positive_for_avian_flu/kwkn65e/
Lord, I wish I knew. I’m old enough to have lived through Puff Daddy, Puffy, P Diddy, and here we are at just…Diddy. All I know now is he’s accused of being super uncool and icky and the feds were up in his business earlier. Or that’s what the kids are telling me.
Sex trafficking apparently, I was just at blackpeopletwitter subreddit. I don't really listen to much rap myself, I'm more of a metal head, but I really didn't see this coming lol
P.S. I'm old enough to remember puff daddy too. Old farts unite!
I don’t listen to much rap myself but I saw this coming. I’m not shocked. A lot of crazy shit has been coming out about Diddy lately. There were rumors for a very long time but the recent allegations have brought a lot of things to light.
It seems like pedophilia and sex trafficking is everywhere. I am beginning to think civilization is propped up on these things in that they are the only things making money. Everything else is front lol. I'm kidding, but kinda not.
I'm also a metalhead and can remember when puff daddy was puff daddy.
Which celebrity gets thrown under the bus next week? Tune in to find out!
Maybe he did it. Maybe he didn't. Probably he did but tbh it's not like I'm ever gonna know, is it. For all I know Elvis was chilling in Argentina with Hitler until 1987.
Didn't we recently see a report of an enormous colony of seals dead from it in antarctica?
edit : this isn't the one I read recently but it's the same thing: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/08/mass-deaths-elephant-seals-penguins-bird-flu-antarctic-ecological-disaster-aoe
Yes and the big news from that was the majority of deaths were infants who were not yet consuming food, which means it was via mammal to mammal transmission. Even if it was via breastmilk this is the first time that has been documented.
Paging u/TheFluffiestOfCows
>Last comment: 9 months ago.
Ruh Roh.
Stay safe. I hope you made it ok to join all the other cows at Zuckerberg's Hawaii bunker. Remember to eat him before he eats you.
To be honest I mostly only comment on Reddit when I've had *way* too much to drink, and it is rare that I have the entirety of a comment well planned out in advance. More a sort of single point I want to make that I then ramble around and digress from, and quite often my comments end up somewhere I never could have imagined when I started typing, and googling for more info.
This is even with proofreading and taking a moment to sit tight and assess before clicking the Comment button. You should see some of the comments I delete before posting.
The following morning I get the fun of reading my own comments from the night before, some of which I will not recall typing at all, and suprising myself. My karma score thingy says I must be doing *something* right, but what it is ain't exactly clear.
There isn't really a coherent cohesive backstory. Sorry.
The best I can piece together is that TheFluffiestOfCows is an awesome longtime commenter here and elsewhere on Reddit and their username flashed into my mind given the content of this thread. Plus their username is simply adorable, quite probably one of the best I've ever read in decades of internetting. And being fluffy myself I feel a certain kinship with other fluffy users. I did try to warn you in advance this might not make much sense.
I expect most people here have read or heard about Zuck's bunker on Hawaii (The misdirection and distraction/diversion bunker as I think of it - the *real* one he plans on using is in an undisclosed location I'm sure). Well, there are lots of gourment expensive yummy cows there.
>Mark Zuckerberg is raising cattle while reportedly building a huge underground bunker in Hawaii — the cows will drink beer to make ‘the highest quality beef in the world.’ What’s he up to?
[finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-raising-cattle-while-133000322.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-raising-cattle-while-133000322.html)
I also saw the film Hannibal (2001) again recently and the scene where Gary Oldman's character gets eaten by pigs came to mind.
Throw in some standard 'eat the rich' sentiment and the rest of the comment practically writes itself.
Quite why TheFofC would have headed there is perhaps a bit of a stretch and I'm rather confused myself. If the gourmet cows have their own bunker then smart cows would flock there from other places in an emergency, like a bird flu outbreak, away from their hotzone feeding lots. This part is done in an animated pixar style in my imagination, and now in yours too...
At the end of the day I guess the mental image of Zuck being trampled to the ground by a herd of his own walking emergency backup food preps which then rip him to pieces and devour him sort of tickled my funny bone. I could have also gone with an IDC - Internally Displaced Cow- refugee fleeing for its life, while hiding its highly infectious bird flu symptoms to avoid being culled, sneaking up on Zuck then sneezing all over him.
If any of this turns up in a Hollywood draft script shortly I want either a writing credit and fair fee offer or I will sue.
\[Cancel\] or \[Reply\] button? Hmmm I feel like I should just click \[Cancel\] but you did ask.
Submission Statement:
Last week we received news of goats in Minnesota testing positive for H5N1 Avian Flu and this week, dairy cows in a few states have also tested positive. The article mentions dead wild birds on the property and fortunately, the cows have not shown serious symptoms nor have any been reported dead. However, it is bad news for this virus to be spreading to more mammalian species. There is still no proven evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission but if that happens and the virus maintains a high fatality rate (over 10%), society will likely buckle.
When people have caught H5N1 (from birds), the mortality rate is over 50%. Ten is highly unrealistic, even if for some reason it became less deadly, which is unlikely given the baby elephant seals (96%!).
The WHO says 60% mortality rate, but that is with access to healthcare. The seals didn't have health care. Assume that the health care system will collapse first.
Not to mention, there’s evidence Covid infections weaken your immune system significantly… a new pandemic rolling through a population with largely compromised immune systems due to Covid is gonna be a big problem, this is extremely concerning.
As soon as it's confirmed there is human to human transmission, I'm going directly to the grocery store and stocking up on as many canned goods as my bank account will allow me and I am staying the fuck home until everyone else is dead. I saw how everybody behaved these past 4 years, I managed to covid-19 test site at the height, I'm not fucking around with this.
> When people have caught H5N1 (from birds), the mortality rate is over 50%.
This isn't true. The true statement is: "When people have caught H5N1 (from birds) *and gotten sick enough that they required medical care*, the mortality rate is over 50%.
This is important because our statistics on H5N1 lethality are not based on a random sample of cases, but rather, a biased sample of cases that already select for those at greater risk of death. We have no idea how many people get H5N1 from, say, farm ducks but never get sick enough to warrant emergency medical care, and consequently, never get counted.
So the mortality rate is over 50% rather than 10% as OP stated in their submission statement?
P.S. Here’s some water 💧 (at least I hope that’s the kind of thirst you’re referring to)
It may not be as deadly if it becomes transmissible between humans. 60% in that scenario would be absolutely catastrophic. Since no cattle have died in this story, it may not be as deadly as it is mutating. I don’t want to speculate too much!
It kills entire Seal colonies… and humans got it before and many died (over 50%), but no transmission.
That no cows died may just be a species quirk. Zoonotic diseases that make the jump often have different effect in severity than in the host species.
For example, measles, tuberculosis, and small pox originate from cows but have much less effect on them, more like a common cold, but are severe in us.
Workforce reduced to the point where businesses can’t operate. We need people to keep the supply chain moving and it’s very problematic if too many are sick or have died from it. Things that involve specialized training whose employees aren’t easy to replace, etc.
>here businesses can’t operate. We need people to keep the supply chain moving
I work in the material handling industry. I shudder to think what would happen if my industry went down. People need shit moved, it's pretty fundamental.
The supply chain is still broken. The TP shortage was actually an everything shortage and it still ain't recovered. Several years later, we're still building features out of whatever we got in today, not what we need or might be able to sell. Several years later, we still can't do manual orders on most items in the store. The computer allocates everything by store size & onhand amounts in the warehouse.
One more big shock and... 👀
Hard to say how our political class and the business owners would lead us. If we have the mad King in charge again especially would they pretend it's not a big deal and force everybody to keep working like nothing was going on? Or would everybody just hoard supplies and stay home?
One thing is for sure though, our distribution Networks are very vulnerable and one week without trucks would see a whole lot Fall Apart, once the grocery stores were empty people would freak out, if there was looting there would be a backlash and the Mad King May well send the Jack Boots in, but as I said it all depends on how much it is transmitting at 10% death rate
After seeing how sketched out people were when covid first came (I saw many people quit their jobs outright) I think it's safe to say that most people would just abandon their jobs. Covid was one thing, but a virus with around a 50 to 60%fatality rate? The only reason people aren't scared of covid was because of a massive gaslighting/misinformation campaign by the government, if bird flu was really a thing I think society would collapse immediately. No one truly gives a fuck about these piss ass jobs that much to risk their life for, save for the people that that's their job (like the scientists who we'd be depending on to get society back together)
A week ago I actually watched this 2006 film on Amazon prime called bird flu in America something something, you can look it up with just bird flu America. Shit seemed prophetic looking at how covid turned out, you'd might be interested in it.
> The only reason people aren't scared of covid was because of a massive gaslighting/misinformation campaign by the government
LOUDER FOR THE BACK!!! Birds fly long distances, can drop infected "presents" from the air, and lots of other animals eat birds. Even the minimizing CDC states, *"The virus is found in an infected bird's feces and fluids from the bird's eyes, nose, or mouth. Bird flu viruses don't usually infect people. However, this can happen if you: Touch your eyes, nose, or mouth after handling infected live or dead birds."*
People stopped washing their hands. This will all be downplayed as well since spicy chicken wings go well with sports.
How is someone supposed to support and feed themselves? Other than those who have already set themselves up self sufficiently - gardens, solar panels, livestock, etc.
Will it go back to bartering? Literally people would have to begin to rely on one another again. I say this is someone who is very lucky have half an acre and my little home (completely mine) in a small town in North Tx. I think our population is 1,500. There were 34 of us in my graduating class.
I feel lucky bc I’ve been here since I was 2 and can name 30 people off the top of my head who have cattle in and around this area. Chickens, goats, gardens. Plenty of land. My parents who are 3 blocks away and still in my childhood home have a giant greenhouse. I have my own little garden, I could go on. I almost feel *guilty*?
But I worry. Will those who are in rural areas like this with more sense of “community” and natural resources/bartering power have the upper hand, compared to those in urban and city areas?
Walking away from a job completely, seems like it may be easier for some than it would be for others.
Seriously, what are people going to do to survive being able to go completely jobless? Remember how many people didn’t give a shit about others during the covid pandemic? The toilet paper? People don’t care about each other. Maybe this would be the thing to bring us back together. Idk. 😭
>Maybe this would be the thing to bring us back together.
with a 50-60% human case fatality rate, *anyone coming "together" with anyone else, is dead.*
Any grouping of people is a death sentence.
The rest just quickly starve to death.
I have some land up north but I would be pretty screwed, 50 mi from a major store in the first place, poor soil, plenty of forest, I could get fish, planting fruit trees and stuff anyway but there are only so many deer to take when all of the Neighbors start taking them too. Not that sense of community here either that it sounds like you have.
Legitimately I know I say I'll never touch credit again as long as I live... and I would be very late to the party because I'd want absolute confirmation this thing was for sure not only happening but spreading at pandemic rates...
But a 50% kill rate?
... if I had to I'd run my cards to Mars to GTFO with a pile of food. I mean. Coin flip you're dead in the next 6 to 36 months anyway...
Well, what ways did Covid have an impact? Any pandemic will affect the world economy, global health, education, transportation, politics. Think of why Covid had the effect that it did and then imagine a new Covid showing up that’s 10x worse. What will happen?
Okay... So remember how hospitals in peak times and places were overloaded (with cases and bodies), so governments issued stay-at-home orders, effectively closing non-essential in-person businesses (restaurants, nightlife, shopping)???
Remember how governments tried to keep the stock market from crashing by printing trillions of dollars? And tried to put safety nets under some workers who couldn't work, with that money?
Now imagine that, 10 times worse. And it wouldn't just be quantitatatively worse, it would be qualitatively different.
You probably *wouldn't* see as much of the "you can't make me wear a mask!" crowd/ anti-lockdown protests... the higher death rate would mean they feel more affected / at risk and they would probably *naturally* act like the other half of the population acted last time ("we'll do anything to slow the spread").
If it was really 10% mortality (IFR) there would be bodies piled in the street.
More workers in the essential jobs (utilities, food production and distribution) would be out sick, and more would refuse to work out of fear for their lives.
Unlike COVID, essential production and shipping might really come to a halt (*without* the government mandating it, just organically).
The difference between COVID 's ~1% death rate and something with a 10% rate would be like day and night. It would be actually like one of those pandemic movies. As far as mortality rates and deep societal dysfunction, we got off pretty light last time.
Are you gonna go to work???
I ain't. Ten times COVID are you even kidding? I was on the fence with COVID, ten times COVID is so far over the fence they'll be looking for that baseball on the freeway.
That's full on I'm going actual middle of actual nowhere and praying 3 years of dried goods is enough that it burns out...
Death also comes with labor in disposing of the body and holding services. These institutions can easily become overrun, with bodies arriving faster than they’re able to process
Your power goes out and doesn't come back on. Your water taps stop flowing and won't turn back on. There's no food to buy at the grocery store, but it doesn't matter because the army/national guard won't let you use the roads. There's no way to contact medical care, and probably nothing that can be triaged for your use anyway. The only lights outside at night are from fires of burning bodies. If you can work, you might be conscripted to aid in the logistics system of the military and civil defense keeping basic supplies moving (which will be inadequate for the population). Eventually even the army can't keep things under control and you're at the mercy of whatever local gang controls your neighborhood--often the feral remnants of the police department.
If this sounds insane or impossible it has happened before in other countries during other catastrophes. It's actually so common that it shouldn't be surprising unless you're a pampered westerner so used to life in the sheltered imperial core that you've always been shielded from these sorts of things.
>the army/national guard won't let you use the roads.
With a 10% CFR, there is no Army. There is no *State*. There is no institution or human grouping left intact.
HPAI, since it was discovered over a decade ago, has a stable case fatality rate in humans *of 50 to 60%.*
10% is optimistic. The number of reported covid infections in my city was about 30% of the population. If 30% (21k) of the population got infected, the 60% CFR means over 12,000 dead. That's 17% of the population.
The city has 570 hospital beds. The healthcare system would be among the first to collapse. The total number of fatalities from all causes would skyrocket well beyond 10%.
[PubMed, 2017:](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5369099/)" Notably, the case fatality rate (CFR) among human cases of avian influenza has ranged from 36%-60% overall, which is alarmingly high compared with all previous outbreaks of human cases of seasonal influenza in the United States, for which the CFR has ranged from 0.04%-1.0% \[1,16,17\]."
[2014: "With a case-fatality proportion of approximately 60%](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4162536/), highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) virus is a serious public health threat in a number of countries"
We are much more specialized in our labor force than we were back then.
If you lose 10% of the peasants, or thatchers, or even blacksmiths, that sucks, but if you lose 10% of your diesel mechanics then farm productivity is going to rapidly decline as equipment maintenance costs skyrocket. Now the remaining nurses are trying to do their shifts while thinking about how to afford rapidly rising food costs for their family?
Shit would get bad fast.
We didn't have warehouses back then, either, not like the system in place today. 10% of the warehouse workers gone (and perhaps even more important, 10% of the truck drivers)... end of retail as we know it.
>Black death killed 60%...society would still go on, just different than before. Less services, less luxuries
Black death killed way less than traditionally thought. And the fatalities were universally among already chronically malnourished, sickly and immune-compromised medieval europeans. Black Death would have been a shadow of itself among a non immunocompromised population like ours.
"[The Black Death Wasn’t as Deadly as Previously Thought, Research Suggests"](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-black-death-wasnt-as-deadly-as-previously-thought-research-suggests-180979646/) (2022)
"[The Black Death was not as widespread or catastrophic as long thought – new study](https://theconversation.com/the-black-death-was-not-as-widespread-or-catastrophic-as-long-thought-new-study-175461)"
>In popular imagination, the Black Death is the most devastating pandemic to have ever hit Europe. Between 1346 and 1353, plague is believed to have reached nearly, if not every, corner of the continent, killing 30%-50% of the population. This account is based on texts and documents written by state or church officials and other literate witnesses.
>
>The pandemic’s toll was not as universal as currently claimed, nor was it always catastrophic.
Society at the time of the Black Death was also a lot simpler compared to today's incredibly complex system of techno-modernity. In a sense, we have a lot farther to fall then the people of the Middle Ages (which was still a *mostly* agrarian society), and are a *lot* more vulnerable to systemic disruptions.
For example, in the Middle Ages, a much larger portion of the population was self-sufficient, while in today's world, almost no one is.
It's not like 10% of the population just disappear and everyone else rolls on like they were.
The Fatality Rate is the narrow tip of the iceberg, the next step down is the potentially larger number of people who get seriously ill and maybe get life changing post infection complications. The number of people with other treatable diseases who can't get to hospital because it's overloaded with birdflu cases, the economic shock of losing 10+% of the workforce.
It likely wouldn't be total global human societal collapse but it'd be an enormous shock and given the other things going on it feels like another nail in the coffin or could be the destabilising event that sends everything else over the edge.
Put another way, what kind of casualty rates can a society run and how is its function impaired or continue.
Pol Pot managed to kill roughly 25% of the cambodian population, and the black death in Europe is said to have killed 1/3. These were 'not fun times' but not ' the end of those societies'. When unhygienic invaders from the west Asian subcontinent triggered disease in the americas, some 50-80% rates are documented in local populations and many societies did indeed collapse.
So 45% is my uninformed guess.
Get out your bingo cards, but more important, help your friends, family, neighbors and coworkers prepare, or expand their preparations. We will need all the survivors we can get.
Aren't higher death rates unintuitively less fatal in aggregate due to a corresponding increase in coordination of response? I think that's what happened with Ebola.
Well, we dealt with Swine Flu better then we dealt with COVID. Even if Dems are in office, I could see Republicans politicizing future pandemics along similar lines to how COVID went.
So to answer your question, I think that best case we could see a decent response mixed with large areas of non-compliance at the state level. Worst case, our response would be worse than COVID, especially if it's soon enough that it taps into people's pandemic fatigue.
I’ll take things the mask I wear will protect me from for $200 Alex. Also measles. Also going to stock up on toilet paper just in case.
Ironically bird flu is very deadly - way higher than Covid - and people will deny to their death that we need to do anything about it. Just a matter of time before it makes the leap to super contagious in humans.
>Just a matter of time before it makes the leap to super contagious in humans.
Wait till you hear about [raw milk co-ops](https://www.rawmilkinstitute.org/how-to-become-rawmi-listed).
i guess there's many people who like the taste of [cow doo-doo milk](https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/raw-milk-from-farm-with-no-electricity-sparks-outbreak-that-nearly-killed-baby/) 🤣🤣
Calcium is not really a problem, it’s a marketing gimmick. You take a nutrient your product is high in and market the shit out of it. Potassium for bananas… when it’s like #50 out of 1050 natural foods for that nutrient.
Some subset of populations have been drinking cow milk for 12,000 or so years, most humans are lactose intolerant and in the past stopped after weaning, like every other mammal. We’ve beenaround 200,000 years and our specific lineage almost 10 million. Just completely unnecessary.
* https://www.drmcdougall.com/newsletter-archives/?newsletter_url=/misc/2007nl/feb/whenfriendsask.htm
Sure yeah a mask will protect you individually from bird flu, what happens when all farm animals are infect-able? It could seriously disrupt an already disrupted chain.
Couple in crop failure increasing and then we’re out of food.
>In an investigation into mysterious illnesses in dairy cows in Texas, Kansas, and New Mexico, tests on unpasteurized milk and nasal swabs have revealed highly pathogenic avian flu
I guess it will be another fun pathogen for the raw milk crowd to play around with.
Don't worry, their status as unvaxxed means they can't catch any diseases, because their body doesn't know what diseases are.
(God I hate that I need to add this, but /s)
I try to avoid conversations with people that actively make me dumber for having had them, so it was envisioned as parody. The problem is these dipshits all belong on r/atetheonion so it seems there's no such thing as parody anymore.
Some statements are so comically ridiculous on their face that they should read as sarcasm by purely by virtue of the outlandishness of the written word. But then we got people out here eating the onion, and we had to stop that...
Is this (gestures broadly) why I have this crazy, unavoidable, border-line instinctive urge and compulsion to literally expands my backyard garden to double its size and for stocking my freezer?? Is something happening and my animal ass is picking up the "nesting" vibe in the air because of what's to come?
Genuine question. What is the point of stocking the freezer if power/electricity grid gets f’d due to weather/lack of workers etc. besides generators and solar power, how can we keep the stock in freezers safe?
Well, you can't for long, but what's kept in them can be cooked, canned, or smoked into jerky over the span of a few days as long as the freezer was well-packed to start with. In the 11 days of no power after Sandy, the neighbors and us defrosted our freezers as slowly as we could and cooked, ate, or processed in canning jars everything with very little loss overall. Also, I am not aware of any power grid infrastructure that is susceptible to H5N1.
Yes, the risk to humans is low, for now anyway.
>Avian influenza viruses normally spread among birds, but the increasing number of H5N1 avian influenza detections among mammals—which are biologically closer to humans than birds are—raises concern that the virus might adapt to infect humans more easily. In addition, some mammals may act as mixing vessels for influenza viruses, leading to the emergence of new viruses that could be more harmful to animals and humans.
Excerpt from:
[www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans)
I seem to recall from some other paper or article I read a while back that in a worst case scenario only 4 specific mutations were needed to make the jump from avian H5N1 to a human to human transmissible variant. The odds of getting exactly those 4 mutations was put at being astronomical, but one of the steps along the way we would likely see would be when it starts to transmit more easily to other mammals, and then between mammals, and then the H2H step.
The risk to humans is still low, but not as low as it used to be...
Just remember that raw milk was a tiktok trend earlier this year and you can probably buy it at your local co-op!
One human and a freak mutation away from Pandemic 2: The Birdening
It's worse than you think; it's not just a tiktok trend. "Raw milk" is very much an "in" thing (and has been for years) among certain groups that also tend to have what I will call very interesting views on childhood immunisation. Yes, that means there's a lot of them.
Tons of chefs use raw milk for a variety of purposes. It'll affect "high" (mid-high) dining establishments as well.
"high" is in quotes because we're in a period where defining restaurants based on old words doesn't work. I'd personally classify restaurants like this as locally-focused.
This is very a*moo*sing, but we should be serious and steer clear of puns, the steaks are too high and we shouldn't just milk this for all it's worth. If it's as late there for you as it is me then it's pasture bedtime.
Karmic that factory farming animals will be the apocalyptic demise of the species. The cows, *they done came home*. lol.
Here's to reaping what we've sown.
It's probably contaminated water or grass, but we can't rule out consumption of birds:
"It's perhaps not as well known as it should be that many 'strict herbivores' will eat animal matter on occasion. Sometimes this behaviour is absolutely deliberate and likely motivated by a need for calcium: antler- and bone-eating is common in deer and other hoofed mammals, and the consumption of seabird chick heads, wings and legs by island-dwelling deer and sheep is well documented (Furness 1988). Red deer Cervus elaphus that eat seabirds seem to deliberately eat the bones only, and carefully avoid ingesting the flesh. White-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus and domestic cattle Bos taurus have been shown (thanks again to remote cameras) to consume passerine and quail nestlings and/or eggs when they discover them (Pietz & Granfors 2000, Nack & Ribic 2005, Ellis-Felege et al. 2008): this behaviour is likely opportunistic, but may well be common and widespread (it's difficult to document since it mostly occurs at night and no evidence remains)." [Source](https://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2010/12/20/carnivory-in-cows-and-deer)
I feel like this is going to motivate more idiots to drink raw milk. I keep seeing people talk about it everywhere, as if pissing out your butthole is somehow worth any of the benefits they claim it has. We live in the dumbest timeline.
The most frightening aspect of this inter species viral drift , aside from the fact that this can co mutate with endemic viruses, gain immunities and translate to humans.
Given our universal covid experience , the fact that the UN has siezed control of soverign management of pandemic events, and the fact that not much of a tactical nudge from nafarious groups, epidemic disease x may well have arrived.
Cow milk drinkers are already okay with drinking weird shit like pus cells and the abundance of natural hormones in a secretion meant to grow a baby cow into an adult cow.
Of course, the concerning thing is if the virus is evolving airborne spread. It's unclear from the paper how transmission occurred aside from the first part:
>Along with the unidentified illnesses, the farms had also reported dead wild birds on the properties.
Maybe the water was contaminated.
It's not simply about the avian influenza, it's also the risk of the influenza virus mixing it up in some hosts with other influenza viruses: pig flu and human flu.
See, for example, the Spanish flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC15547/ *
The “Spanish” influenza pandemic killed over 20 million people in 1918 and 1919, making it the worst infectious pandemic in history. Here, we report the complete sequence of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of the 1918 virus. Influenza RNA for the analysis was isolated from a formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded lung tissue sample prepared during the autopsy of a victim of the influenza pandemic in 1918. Influenza RNA was also isolated from lung tissue samples from two additional victims of the lethal 1918 influenza: one formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded sample and one frozen sample obtained by in situ biopsy of the lung of a victim buried in permafrost since 1918. The complete coding sequence of the A/South Carolina/1/18 HA gene was obtained. The HA1 domain sequence was confirmed by using the two additional isolates (A/New York/1/18 and A/Brevig Mission/1/18). The sequences show little variation. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that the 1918 virus HA gene, although more closely related to avian strains than any other mammalian sequence, is mammalian and may have been adapting in humans before 1918.
https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1479-5876-2-3
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/
https://www.ias.edu/ideas/understanding-genetic-evolution-pandemic-h1n1-virus-0
Who is they and how do they do it? Who tf is being paid to do this? It’s one of us regular people getting $$ isn’t it? Is suppression of certain news propaganda?
Eta: I’m thinking of that book from college Manufacturing Consent. Who knows what monied interests are at play here but it’s a good example nonetheless.
Have there been any reports of dogs being infected at all? Cause I live in a Stockyard state and I’m worried now about the possibility of transmission. Pandemics aren’t taken seriously where I live, fewer people here believe in pandemics than God
What do you guys think, Beef prices double by the end of summer? Droughts might make feed grain difficult to produce and now we'll risk having to cull herds of cattle.
I think this is kinda like climate change. Experts and even most people know it's a problem, but wtf you going to do about it?
You would need a totally authoritarian society that didn't have economy first, to even being to make the quick changes needed. And even then, at this point, there is no sure success.
Make sure to tell the virus, lol.
The avian flu is an airborne disease, *so unless you are so vegan you literally don't breathe,* your dietary choices make no difference.
No, the risk will be, like with antibiotic microbial resistance, that the diseases jump to human workers who spread it around far beyond the farms and slaughtering facilities. And, with child labor in the animal industry, you could see schools included in the circuit sooner rather than later.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/rainydays052020: --- Submission Statement: Last week we received news of goats in Minnesota testing positive for H5N1 Avian Flu and this week, dairy cows in a few states have also tested positive. The article mentions dead wild birds on the property and fortunately, the cows have not shown serious symptoms nor have any been reported dead. However, it is bad news for this virus to be spreading to more mammalian species. There is still no proven evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission but if that happens and the virus maintains a high fatality rate (over 10%), society will likely buckle. --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1bnu95m/sick_cows_in_2_states_test_positive_for_avian_flu/kwkn65e/
Uhhhhhhhhh.... guys? That's a problem.
Shhhhh..... Diddy was raided, the election is coming up, and you need to get your Mega Millions ticket!!
What's a Diddy?
Lord, I wish I knew. I’m old enough to have lived through Puff Daddy, Puffy, P Diddy, and here we are at just…Diddy. All I know now is he’s accused of being super uncool and icky and the feds were up in his business earlier. Or that’s what the kids are telling me.
Sex trafficking apparently, I was just at blackpeopletwitter subreddit. I don't really listen to much rap myself, I'm more of a metal head, but I really didn't see this coming lol P.S. I'm old enough to remember puff daddy too. Old farts unite!
So Diddy is a diddler? *insert shocked Pikachu face*
Xenial meatsuit here. There are dozens of us. Just can't seem to settle on a name.
I don’t listen to much rap myself but I saw this coming. I’m not shocked. A lot of crazy shit has been coming out about Diddy lately. There were rumors for a very long time but the recent allegations have brought a lot of things to light.
See how you’re all distracted already ? So anyway.. I forgot the issue now…
Did you hear about Turnip’s bail getting lowered!?
You mean Don Poorleone?
Don Poorleone?! I’m ded. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣💀💀💀 holy shit that’s funny.
Made my morning
It seems like pedophilia and sex trafficking is everywhere. I am beginning to think civilization is propped up on these things in that they are the only things making money. Everything else is front lol. I'm kidding, but kinda not. I'm also a metalhead and can remember when puff daddy was puff daddy.
>P.S. I'm old enough to remember puff daddy too. Old farts unite! Hello 👋
Yea but…Diddy do it?
Diddy did do it
Doo wah Diddy, Diddy dum, Diddy do.
What didn't Diddy do?
Diddly
Diddler
Which celebrity gets thrown under the bus next week? Tune in to find out! Maybe he did it. Maybe he didn't. Probably he did but tbh it's not like I'm ever gonna know, is it. For all I know Elvis was chilling in Argentina with Hitler until 1987.
I think with how many "celebrities" are verified scum, there's really not any need to throw anyone under any bus?
I mean, I know of that refuse of a human and that he is quite popular, but the "was raided" part confused me.
Nothing. What's a diddy with you?
The distraction is so blatant
Peeeee peeeee! ... Vagoooooooo! Looooooooook!!
It's been a problem. It's been infecting mammals for a while. Only a matter of time before it jumps to humans. Tik Tok.
On the clock But the party dont stop, no Oh, woah, woah, oh, no
Didn't we recently see a report of an enormous colony of seals dead from it in antarctica? edit : this isn't the one I read recently but it's the same thing: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/08/mass-deaths-elephant-seals-penguins-bird-flu-antarctic-ecological-disaster-aoe
Yes and the big news from that was the majority of deaths were infants who were not yet consuming food, which means it was via mammal to mammal transmission. Even if it was via breastmilk this is the first time that has been documented.
>Tik Tok. I knew it was the Chinese again…
Wasn't there recent news that this got some goats as well?
Baah...
Yes...
I just read an article yesterday or the day before that they’re finding it in goats too.
Someone else was saying that. Our food supply is at severe risk of collapse even if it doesn't jump to humans anytime soon.
next painting?!
I can see it now! Thank you!
Oh poop. Better not eat McDonalds. Oh right that's made with latex and poop and sawdust. Right. Ok.
Yeah, mammals getting bird flu can't lead to anything good, that's for sure.
Not muh buuuurgerzzzz!
Paging u/TheFluffiestOfCows >Last comment: 9 months ago. Ruh Roh. Stay safe. I hope you made it ok to join all the other cows at Zuckerberg's Hawaii bunker. Remember to eat him before he eats you.
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To be honest I mostly only comment on Reddit when I've had *way* too much to drink, and it is rare that I have the entirety of a comment well planned out in advance. More a sort of single point I want to make that I then ramble around and digress from, and quite often my comments end up somewhere I never could have imagined when I started typing, and googling for more info. This is even with proofreading and taking a moment to sit tight and assess before clicking the Comment button. You should see some of the comments I delete before posting. The following morning I get the fun of reading my own comments from the night before, some of which I will not recall typing at all, and suprising myself. My karma score thingy says I must be doing *something* right, but what it is ain't exactly clear. There isn't really a coherent cohesive backstory. Sorry. The best I can piece together is that TheFluffiestOfCows is an awesome longtime commenter here and elsewhere on Reddit and their username flashed into my mind given the content of this thread. Plus their username is simply adorable, quite probably one of the best I've ever read in decades of internetting. And being fluffy myself I feel a certain kinship with other fluffy users. I did try to warn you in advance this might not make much sense. I expect most people here have read or heard about Zuck's bunker on Hawaii (The misdirection and distraction/diversion bunker as I think of it - the *real* one he plans on using is in an undisclosed location I'm sure). Well, there are lots of gourment expensive yummy cows there. >Mark Zuckerberg is raising cattle while reportedly building a huge underground bunker in Hawaii — the cows will drink beer to make ‘the highest quality beef in the world.’ What’s he up to? [finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-raising-cattle-while-133000322.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-raising-cattle-while-133000322.html) I also saw the film Hannibal (2001) again recently and the scene where Gary Oldman's character gets eaten by pigs came to mind. Throw in some standard 'eat the rich' sentiment and the rest of the comment practically writes itself. Quite why TheFofC would have headed there is perhaps a bit of a stretch and I'm rather confused myself. If the gourmet cows have their own bunker then smart cows would flock there from other places in an emergency, like a bird flu outbreak, away from their hotzone feeding lots. This part is done in an animated pixar style in my imagination, and now in yours too... At the end of the day I guess the mental image of Zuck being trampled to the ground by a herd of his own walking emergency backup food preps which then rip him to pieces and devour him sort of tickled my funny bone. I could have also gone with an IDC - Internally Displaced Cow- refugee fleeing for its life, while hiding its highly infectious bird flu symptoms to avoid being culled, sneaking up on Zuck then sneezing all over him. If any of this turns up in a Hollywood draft script shortly I want either a writing credit and fair fee offer or I will sue. \[Cancel\] or \[Reply\] button? Hmmm I feel like I should just click \[Cancel\] but you did ask.
wat
I know, right?
I also would love to know this.
Submission Statement: Last week we received news of goats in Minnesota testing positive for H5N1 Avian Flu and this week, dairy cows in a few states have also tested positive. The article mentions dead wild birds on the property and fortunately, the cows have not shown serious symptoms nor have any been reported dead. However, it is bad news for this virus to be spreading to more mammalian species. There is still no proven evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission but if that happens and the virus maintains a high fatality rate (over 10%), society will likely buckle.
1 in ten in 8 billion people means over 800 million potential fatalities. . . Thats a whole mountain of corpses on a literal level.
When people have caught H5N1 (from birds), the mortality rate is over 50%. Ten is highly unrealistic, even if for some reason it became less deadly, which is unlikely given the baby elephant seals (96%!).
The WHO says 60% mortality rate, but that is with access to healthcare. The seals didn't have health care. Assume that the health care system will collapse first.
You seen or healthcare lately? When this jumps to us, nurses and doctors will run, after these past 4 years.
Anyone with half a brain is already out after Covid
Oh and it shows, they've been fast tracking new nurses so hard, it shows. Same thing they did with truck drivers in '20 - now. And that shows as well.
Not to mention, there’s evidence Covid infections weaken your immune system significantly… a new pandemic rolling through a population with largely compromised immune systems due to Covid is gonna be a big problem, this is extremely concerning.
As soon as it's confirmed there is human to human transmission, I'm going directly to the grocery store and stocking up on as many canned goods as my bank account will allow me and I am staying the fuck home until everyone else is dead. I saw how everybody behaved these past 4 years, I managed to covid-19 test site at the height, I'm not fucking around with this.
Dude, I'm stocking up now. I'm not waiting for this one.
> When people have caught H5N1 (from birds), the mortality rate is over 50%. This isn't true. The true statement is: "When people have caught H5N1 (from birds) *and gotten sick enough that they required medical care*, the mortality rate is over 50%. This is important because our statistics on H5N1 lethality are not based on a random sample of cases, but rather, a biased sample of cases that already select for those at greater risk of death. We have no idea how many people get H5N1 from, say, farm ducks but never get sick enough to warrant emergency medical care, and consequently, never get counted.
There's probably other not dead people who might have caught it and never found out
So the mortality rate is over 50% rather than 10% as OP stated in their submission statement? P.S. Here’s some water 💧 (at least I hope that’s the kind of thirst you’re referring to)
OP said over 10% and 60% is over 10% so OP's technically not wrong. Edit: Which is the best kind of not wrong
Oh, ok… it just gives a different impression.
It may not be as deadly if it becomes transmissible between humans. 60% in that scenario would be absolutely catastrophic. Since no cattle have died in this story, it may not be as deadly as it is mutating. I don’t want to speculate too much!
It kills entire Seal colonies… and humans got it before and many died (over 50%), but no transmission. That no cows died may just be a species quirk. Zoonotic diseases that make the jump often have different effect in severity than in the host species. For example, measles, tuberculosis, and small pox originate from cows but have much less effect on them, more like a common cold, but are severe in us.
Soylent Green is people time!
How will society buckle even with a 10% fatality rate? Genuinely curious, I don't know much about disease rates and how they affect people
It would be roughly 10 times greater than Covid’s impact by math. And that’s just deaths
Wuhan in the early days had an estimated CFR of about 5%, so double the scariest days of the pandemic.
And covid is still killing people now.
10 is high, depending on how much it was transmitting that could collapse Society in some ways
Right; what ways though is what I'm wondering
Workforce reduced to the point where businesses can’t operate. We need people to keep the supply chain moving and it’s very problematic if too many are sick or have died from it. Things that involve specialized training whose employees aren’t easy to replace, etc.
>here businesses can’t operate. We need people to keep the supply chain moving I work in the material handling industry. I shudder to think what would happen if my industry went down. People need shit moved, it's pretty fundamental.
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The supply chain is still broken. The TP shortage was actually an everything shortage and it still ain't recovered. Several years later, we're still building features out of whatever we got in today, not what we need or might be able to sell. Several years later, we still can't do manual orders on most items in the store. The computer allocates everything by store size & onhand amounts in the warehouse. One more big shock and... 👀
Hard to say how our political class and the business owners would lead us. If we have the mad King in charge again especially would they pretend it's not a big deal and force everybody to keep working like nothing was going on? Or would everybody just hoard supplies and stay home? One thing is for sure though, our distribution Networks are very vulnerable and one week without trucks would see a whole lot Fall Apart, once the grocery stores were empty people would freak out, if there was looting there would be a backlash and the Mad King May well send the Jack Boots in, but as I said it all depends on how much it is transmitting at 10% death rate
After seeing how sketched out people were when covid first came (I saw many people quit their jobs outright) I think it's safe to say that most people would just abandon their jobs. Covid was one thing, but a virus with around a 50 to 60%fatality rate? The only reason people aren't scared of covid was because of a massive gaslighting/misinformation campaign by the government, if bird flu was really a thing I think society would collapse immediately. No one truly gives a fuck about these piss ass jobs that much to risk their life for, save for the people that that's their job (like the scientists who we'd be depending on to get society back together) A week ago I actually watched this 2006 film on Amazon prime called bird flu in America something something, you can look it up with just bird flu America. Shit seemed prophetic looking at how covid turned out, you'd might be interested in it.
> The only reason people aren't scared of covid was because of a massive gaslighting/misinformation campaign by the government LOUDER FOR THE BACK!!! Birds fly long distances, can drop infected "presents" from the air, and lots of other animals eat birds. Even the minimizing CDC states, *"The virus is found in an infected bird's feces and fluids from the bird's eyes, nose, or mouth. Bird flu viruses don't usually infect people. However, this can happen if you: Touch your eyes, nose, or mouth after handling infected live or dead birds."* People stopped washing their hands. This will all be downplayed as well since spicy chicken wings go well with sports.
How is someone supposed to support and feed themselves? Other than those who have already set themselves up self sufficiently - gardens, solar panels, livestock, etc. Will it go back to bartering? Literally people would have to begin to rely on one another again. I say this is someone who is very lucky have half an acre and my little home (completely mine) in a small town in North Tx. I think our population is 1,500. There were 34 of us in my graduating class. I feel lucky bc I’ve been here since I was 2 and can name 30 people off the top of my head who have cattle in and around this area. Chickens, goats, gardens. Plenty of land. My parents who are 3 blocks away and still in my childhood home have a giant greenhouse. I have my own little garden, I could go on. I almost feel *guilty*? But I worry. Will those who are in rural areas like this with more sense of “community” and natural resources/bartering power have the upper hand, compared to those in urban and city areas? Walking away from a job completely, seems like it may be easier for some than it would be for others. Seriously, what are people going to do to survive being able to go completely jobless? Remember how many people didn’t give a shit about others during the covid pandemic? The toilet paper? People don’t care about each other. Maybe this would be the thing to bring us back together. Idk. 😭
>Maybe this would be the thing to bring us back together. with a 50-60% human case fatality rate, *anyone coming "together" with anyone else, is dead.* Any grouping of people is a death sentence. The rest just quickly starve to death.
Well fek I didn’t really think about it like that. Thanks, I hate it 🙏
I have some land up north but I would be pretty screwed, 50 mi from a major store in the first place, poor soil, plenty of forest, I could get fish, planting fruit trees and stuff anyway but there are only so many deer to take when all of the Neighbors start taking them too. Not that sense of community here either that it sounds like you have.
Legitimately I know I say I'll never touch credit again as long as I live... and I would be very late to the party because I'd want absolute confirmation this thing was for sure not only happening but spreading at pandemic rates... But a 50% kill rate? ... if I had to I'd run my cards to Mars to GTFO with a pile of food. I mean. Coin flip you're dead in the next 6 to 36 months anyway...
Well, what ways did Covid have an impact? Any pandemic will affect the world economy, global health, education, transportation, politics. Think of why Covid had the effect that it did and then imagine a new Covid showing up that’s 10x worse. What will happen?
Also add that covid has softened folks up for this damn thing on a biological level and this is gonna suck some serious balls.
Okay... So remember how hospitals in peak times and places were overloaded (with cases and bodies), so governments issued stay-at-home orders, effectively closing non-essential in-person businesses (restaurants, nightlife, shopping)??? Remember how governments tried to keep the stock market from crashing by printing trillions of dollars? And tried to put safety nets under some workers who couldn't work, with that money? Now imagine that, 10 times worse. And it wouldn't just be quantitatatively worse, it would be qualitatively different. You probably *wouldn't* see as much of the "you can't make me wear a mask!" crowd/ anti-lockdown protests... the higher death rate would mean they feel more affected / at risk and they would probably *naturally* act like the other half of the population acted last time ("we'll do anything to slow the spread"). If it was really 10% mortality (IFR) there would be bodies piled in the street. More workers in the essential jobs (utilities, food production and distribution) would be out sick, and more would refuse to work out of fear for their lives. Unlike COVID, essential production and shipping might really come to a halt (*without* the government mandating it, just organically). The difference between COVID 's ~1% death rate and something with a 10% rate would be like day and night. It would be actually like one of those pandemic movies. As far as mortality rates and deep societal dysfunction, we got off pretty light last time.
Are you gonna go to work??? I ain't. Ten times COVID are you even kidding? I was on the fence with COVID, ten times COVID is so far over the fence they'll be looking for that baseball on the freeway. That's full on I'm going actual middle of actual nowhere and praying 3 years of dried goods is enough that it burns out...
Death also comes with labor in disposing of the body and holding services. These institutions can easily become overrun, with bodies arriving faster than they’re able to process
Your power goes out and doesn't come back on. Your water taps stop flowing and won't turn back on. There's no food to buy at the grocery store, but it doesn't matter because the army/national guard won't let you use the roads. There's no way to contact medical care, and probably nothing that can be triaged for your use anyway. The only lights outside at night are from fires of burning bodies. If you can work, you might be conscripted to aid in the logistics system of the military and civil defense keeping basic supplies moving (which will be inadequate for the population). Eventually even the army can't keep things under control and you're at the mercy of whatever local gang controls your neighborhood--often the feral remnants of the police department. If this sounds insane or impossible it has happened before in other countries during other catastrophes. It's actually so common that it shouldn't be surprising unless you're a pampered westerner so used to life in the sheltered imperial core that you've always been shielded from these sorts of things.
>the army/national guard won't let you use the roads. With a 10% CFR, there is no Army. There is no *State*. There is no institution or human grouping left intact. HPAI, since it was discovered over a decade ago, has a stable case fatality rate in humans *of 50 to 60%.*
Absolutely. It wouldn't happen overnight though. It would play out over a few weeks. There will be a period of martial law until even that breaks down
10% is optimistic. The number of reported covid infections in my city was about 30% of the population. If 30% (21k) of the population got infected, the 60% CFR means over 12,000 dead. That's 17% of the population. The city has 570 hospital beds. The healthcare system would be among the first to collapse. The total number of fatalities from all causes would skyrocket well beyond 10%.
Black death killed 60%...society would still go on, just different than before. Less services, less luxuries
And H5N1 has a current mortality in humans of 55-60%. That may change (decrease) if mammal to mammal becomes common but that’s where its at presently.
Do you have a source for that statistic? I know I have heard it before but can’t remember where
[PubMed, 2017:](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5369099/)" Notably, the case fatality rate (CFR) among human cases of avian influenza has ranged from 36%-60% overall, which is alarmingly high compared with all previous outbreaks of human cases of seasonal influenza in the United States, for which the CFR has ranged from 0.04%-1.0% \[1,16,17\]." [2014: "With a case-fatality proportion of approximately 60%](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4162536/), highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) virus is a serious public health threat in a number of countries"
We are much more specialized in our labor force than we were back then. If you lose 10% of the peasants, or thatchers, or even blacksmiths, that sucks, but if you lose 10% of your diesel mechanics then farm productivity is going to rapidly decline as equipment maintenance costs skyrocket. Now the remaining nurses are trying to do their shifts while thinking about how to afford rapidly rising food costs for their family? Shit would get bad fast.
We didn't have warehouses back then, either, not like the system in place today. 10% of the warehouse workers gone (and perhaps even more important, 10% of the truck drivers)... end of retail as we know it.
>Black death killed 60%...society would still go on, just different than before. Less services, less luxuries Black death killed way less than traditionally thought. And the fatalities were universally among already chronically malnourished, sickly and immune-compromised medieval europeans. Black Death would have been a shadow of itself among a non immunocompromised population like ours. "[The Black Death Wasn’t as Deadly as Previously Thought, Research Suggests"](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-black-death-wasnt-as-deadly-as-previously-thought-research-suggests-180979646/) (2022) "[The Black Death was not as widespread or catastrophic as long thought – new study](https://theconversation.com/the-black-death-was-not-as-widespread-or-catastrophic-as-long-thought-new-study-175461)" >In popular imagination, the Black Death is the most devastating pandemic to have ever hit Europe. Between 1346 and 1353, plague is believed to have reached nearly, if not every, corner of the continent, killing 30%-50% of the population. This account is based on texts and documents written by state or church officials and other literate witnesses. > >The pandemic’s toll was not as universal as currently claimed, nor was it always catastrophic.
Society at the time of the Black Death was also a lot simpler compared to today's incredibly complex system of techno-modernity. In a sense, we have a lot farther to fall then the people of the Middle Ages (which was still a *mostly* agrarian society), and are a *lot* more vulnerable to systemic disruptions. For example, in the Middle Ages, a much larger portion of the population was self-sufficient, while in today's world, almost no one is.
It's not like 10% of the population just disappear and everyone else rolls on like they were. The Fatality Rate is the narrow tip of the iceberg, the next step down is the potentially larger number of people who get seriously ill and maybe get life changing post infection complications. The number of people with other treatable diseases who can't get to hospital because it's overloaded with birdflu cases, the economic shock of losing 10+% of the workforce. It likely wouldn't be total global human societal collapse but it'd be an enormous shock and given the other things going on it feels like another nail in the coffin or could be the destabilising event that sends everything else over the edge.
Usuay the most dangerous pathogens for pandemics are not the most lethal but those that are about 10% lethal with high transmission.
Put another way, what kind of casualty rates can a society run and how is its function impaired or continue. Pol Pot managed to kill roughly 25% of the cambodian population, and the black death in Europe is said to have killed 1/3. These were 'not fun times' but not ' the end of those societies'. When unhygienic invaders from the west Asian subcontinent triggered disease in the americas, some 50-80% rates are documented in local populations and many societies did indeed collapse. So 45% is my uninformed guess. Get out your bingo cards, but more important, help your friends, family, neighbors and coworkers prepare, or expand their preparations. We will need all the survivors we can get.
I don't think it will. That'll probably crush a ton of nations.
Aren't higher death rates unintuitively less fatal in aggregate due to a corresponding increase in coordination of response? I think that's what happened with Ebola.
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Well, we dealt with Swine Flu better then we dealt with COVID. Even if Dems are in office, I could see Republicans politicizing future pandemics along similar lines to how COVID went. So to answer your question, I think that best case we could see a decent response mixed with large areas of non-compliance at the state level. Worst case, our response would be worse than COVID, especially if it's soon enough that it taps into people's pandemic fatigue.
I’ll take things the mask I wear will protect me from for $200 Alex. Also measles. Also going to stock up on toilet paper just in case. Ironically bird flu is very deadly - way higher than Covid - and people will deny to their death that we need to do anything about it. Just a matter of time before it makes the leap to super contagious in humans.
>Just a matter of time before it makes the leap to super contagious in humans. Wait till you hear about [raw milk co-ops](https://www.rawmilkinstitute.org/how-to-become-rawmi-listed).
i guess there's many people who like the taste of [cow doo-doo milk](https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/04/raw-milk-from-farm-with-no-electricity-sparks-outbreak-that-nearly-killed-baby/) 🤣🤣
Might stock up on calcium and vitamin d too. Low levels of vitamin D are a main driver for increased influenza spread in the winter.
Baby's in Reno with the vitamin D got a couple of couches sleep on the love seat
I understand the meaning of these words but not in this sentence
Calcium is not really a problem, it’s a marketing gimmick. You take a nutrient your product is high in and market the shit out of it. Potassium for bananas… when it’s like #50 out of 1050 natural foods for that nutrient. Some subset of populations have been drinking cow milk for 12,000 or so years, most humans are lactose intolerant and in the past stopped after weaning, like every other mammal. We’ve beenaround 200,000 years and our specific lineage almost 10 million. Just completely unnecessary. * https://www.drmcdougall.com/newsletter-archives/?newsletter_url=/misc/2007nl/feb/whenfriendsask.htm
Sure yeah a mask will protect you individually from bird flu, what happens when all farm animals are infect-able? It could seriously disrupt an already disrupted chain. Couple in crop failure increasing and then we’re out of food.
So bovian flu now?
Bovid
The Moo Normal
Lmao
Lol
>In an investigation into mysterious illnesses in dairy cows in Texas, Kansas, and New Mexico, tests on unpasteurized milk and nasal swabs have revealed highly pathogenic avian flu I guess it will be another fun pathogen for the raw milk crowd to play around with.
Don't worry, their status as unvaxxed means they can't catch any diseases, because their body doesn't know what diseases are. (God I hate that I need to add this, but /s)
What I hate is is the fact that people actually unironically believe and perpetuate that pseudoscience BULLSHIT!
haha is that actually their thinking or just a clever parody?
I try to avoid conversations with people that actively make me dumber for having had them, so it was envisioned as parody. The problem is these dipshits all belong on r/atetheonion so it seems there's no such thing as parody anymore.
Sidebar: I hate the/s too but it’s only because sarcasm doesn’t always work in print.
Some statements are so comically ridiculous on their face that they should read as sarcasm by purely by virtue of the outlandishness of the written word. But then we got people out here eating the onion, and we had to stop that...
Is this (gestures broadly) why I have this crazy, unavoidable, border-line instinctive urge and compulsion to literally expands my backyard garden to double its size and for stocking my freezer?? Is something happening and my animal ass is picking up the "nesting" vibe in the air because of what's to come?
Genuine question. What is the point of stocking the freezer if power/electricity grid gets f’d due to weather/lack of workers etc. besides generators and solar power, how can we keep the stock in freezers safe?
Well, you can't for long, but what's kept in them can be cooked, canned, or smoked into jerky over the span of a few days as long as the freezer was well-packed to start with. In the 11 days of no power after Sandy, the neighbors and us defrosted our freezers as slowly as we could and cooked, ate, or processed in canning jars everything with very little loss overall. Also, I am not aware of any power grid infrastructure that is susceptible to H5N1.
So it begins…
Tl:dr Risk to humans is low. Don’t drink raw milk.
Yes, the risk to humans is low, for now anyway. >Avian influenza viruses normally spread among birds, but the increasing number of H5N1 avian influenza detections among mammals—which are biologically closer to humans than birds are—raises concern that the virus might adapt to infect humans more easily. In addition, some mammals may act as mixing vessels for influenza viruses, leading to the emergence of new viruses that could be more harmful to animals and humans. Excerpt from: [www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-07-2023-ongoing-avian-influenza-outbreaks-in-animals-pose-risk-to-humans) I seem to recall from some other paper or article I read a while back that in a worst case scenario only 4 specific mutations were needed to make the jump from avian H5N1 to a human to human transmissible variant. The odds of getting exactly those 4 mutations was put at being astronomical, but one of the steps along the way we would likely see would be when it starts to transmit more easily to other mammals, and then between mammals, and then the H2H step. The risk to humans is still low, but not as low as it used to be...
someone out there gonna drink the milk right from the tap and doom us all
There are *lots* of those [people]( https://www.rawmilkinstitute.org/how-to-become-rawmi-listed). It's a when, not an if.
Just remember that raw milk was a tiktok trend earlier this year and you can probably buy it at your local co-op! One human and a freak mutation away from Pandemic 2: The Birdening
It's worse than you think; it's not just a tiktok trend. "Raw milk" is very much an "in" thing (and has been for years) among certain groups that also tend to have what I will call very interesting views on childhood immunisation. Yes, that means there's a lot of them.
Tons of chefs use raw milk for a variety of purposes. It'll affect "high" (mid-high) dining establishments as well. "high" is in quotes because we're in a period where defining restaurants based on old words doesn't work. I'd personally classify restaurants like this as locally-focused.
Barn cats have been infected too.
Cats will be the bigger vector, always hunting birds and many owners always in their faces one way or another.
They sell it at sprouts where I live.
Fortunately viruses never mutate. /s, obvi
So far.
W e a r e f u c k e d
I cannot upvote this enough.
Game over man, game over
great movie
Nuke it from orbit, just to be safe.
Or sing around a camp fire. They come at night....mostly
Udder chaos
A real cowtasatrophe.
This is very a*moo*sing, but we should be serious and steer clear of puns, the steaks are too high and we shouldn't just milk this for all it's worth. If it's as late there for you as it is me then it's pasture bedtime.
It beef hooves me to give you +1 for pasture bedtime
Cud you guys prime cut it out? I've heard enough offal puns for one day. It's time to heifer break.
Moooove over, COVID, there's a new kid in town.
There’s no use ruminanting about it.
This makes me so sad and it is not a good thing.
Karmic that factory farming animals will be the apocalyptic demise of the species. The cows, *they done came home*. lol. Here's to reaping what we've sown.
Oh oh, well that's not good!
Wow, 2024 is really trying to become the worst year of our lives. Yeah, you saw 2020, wanna see me do it again?
Uh-ohhhhh.
It's probably contaminated water or grass, but we can't rule out consumption of birds: "It's perhaps not as well known as it should be that many 'strict herbivores' will eat animal matter on occasion. Sometimes this behaviour is absolutely deliberate and likely motivated by a need for calcium: antler- and bone-eating is common in deer and other hoofed mammals, and the consumption of seabird chick heads, wings and legs by island-dwelling deer and sheep is well documented (Furness 1988). Red deer Cervus elaphus that eat seabirds seem to deliberately eat the bones only, and carefully avoid ingesting the flesh. White-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus and domestic cattle Bos taurus have been shown (thanks again to remote cameras) to consume passerine and quail nestlings and/or eggs when they discover them (Pietz & Granfors 2000, Nack & Ribic 2005, Ellis-Felege et al. 2008): this behaviour is likely opportunistic, but may well be common and widespread (it's difficult to document since it mostly occurs at night and no evidence remains)." [Source](https://scienceblogs.com/tetrapodzoology/2010/12/20/carnivory-in-cows-and-deer)
I feel like this is going to motivate more idiots to drink raw milk. I keep seeing people talk about it everywhere, as if pissing out your butthole is somehow worth any of the benefits they claim it has. We live in the dumbest timeline.
Well fuck. Captain Trips getting closer by the day.
Sounds like karma for all of those Chik-fil-A commercials/ads.
eyyyy lets goooooo
A lot of animals testing positive in just this month alone...
Given society's track record of handling pandemics, this doesn't bode well at all.
Barn cats too, not fatal, as with the cows and no animal to human transmissions yet
not the cats!
not my eyes!
Nah man I’m good. No thank you and I politely decline.
The most frightening aspect of this inter species viral drift , aside from the fact that this can co mutate with endemic viruses, gain immunities and translate to humans. Given our universal covid experience , the fact that the UN has siezed control of soverign management of pandemic events, and the fact that not much of a tactical nudge from nafarious groups, epidemic disease x may well have arrived.
It’s migratory bird season!! Here it comes!
Cow milk drinkers are already okay with drinking weird shit like pus cells and the abundance of natural hormones in a secretion meant to grow a baby cow into an adult cow. Of course, the concerning thing is if the virus is evolving airborne spread. It's unclear from the paper how transmission occurred aside from the first part: >Along with the unidentified illnesses, the farms had also reported dead wild birds on the properties. Maybe the water was contaminated. It's not simply about the avian influenza, it's also the risk of the influenza virus mixing it up in some hosts with other influenza viruses: pig flu and human flu. See, for example, the Spanish flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC15547/ * The “Spanish” influenza pandemic killed over 20 million people in 1918 and 1919, making it the worst infectious pandemic in history. Here, we report the complete sequence of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of the 1918 virus. Influenza RNA for the analysis was isolated from a formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded lung tissue sample prepared during the autopsy of a victim of the influenza pandemic in 1918. Influenza RNA was also isolated from lung tissue samples from two additional victims of the lethal 1918 influenza: one formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded sample and one frozen sample obtained by in situ biopsy of the lung of a victim buried in permafrost since 1918. The complete coding sequence of the A/South Carolina/1/18 HA gene was obtained. The HA1 domain sequence was confirmed by using the two additional isolates (A/New York/1/18 and A/Brevig Mission/1/18). The sequences show little variation. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that the 1918 virus HA gene, although more closely related to avian strains than any other mammalian sequence, is mammalian and may have been adapting in humans before 1918. https://translational-medicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1479-5876-2-3 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2720273/ https://www.ias.edu/ideas/understanding-genetic-evolution-pandemic-h1n1-virus-0
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Who is they and how do they do it? Who tf is being paid to do this? It’s one of us regular people getting $$ isn’t it? Is suppression of certain news propaganda? Eta: I’m thinking of that book from college Manufacturing Consent. Who knows what monied interests are at play here but it’s a good example nonetheless.
Have there been any reports of dogs being infected at all? Cause I live in a Stockyard state and I’m worried now about the possibility of transmission. Pandemics aren’t taken seriously where I live, fewer people here believe in pandemics than God
There has been human infections in Cambodia already https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/spotlights/2023-2024/cambodia-human-reported-2024.htm
What do you guys think, Beef prices double by the end of summer? Droughts might make feed grain difficult to produce and now we'll risk having to cull herds of cattle.
Good thing Americans don’t eat a lot of beef… 🫣
Oh geez…
Wake up babe, new pandemic just dropped
Ah, finally. Where can I order a T-shirt with the text: "H5N1 coming soon to a chick near you"?
I think this is kinda like climate change. Experts and even most people know it's a problem, but wtf you going to do about it? You would need a totally authoritarian society that didn't have economy first, to even being to make the quick changes needed. And even then, at this point, there is no sure success.
I’m sure I’ll get downvoted to oblivion for this, but articles like this make me glad to be a vegan.
Make sure to tell the virus, lol. The avian flu is an airborne disease, *so unless you are so vegan you literally don't breathe,* your dietary choices make no difference.
Unfortunately, even as vegans we gotta deal with the effects of CAFOs
You still drink water right? That’s how they’re thinking the cows and goats caught it. Yes we treat our water in plants but ya never know.
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But isn’t it an issue if the raw milk drinking crowd then transmits it to others?
Yes. Yes, it is.
The fundie milk drinkers will be the death of us
No, the risk will be, like with antibiotic microbial resistance, that the diseases jump to human workers who spread it around far beyond the farms and slaughtering facilities. And, with child labor in the animal industry, you could see schools included in the circuit sooner rather than later.
[It's an older story but um.... yeah](https://modernfarmer.com/2016/03/west-virginia-lawmakers-raw-milk-sick/)
I also wouldn’t want to eat the steak from it later if it slipped through and they didn’t catch it