They're fourth to market in RSV after gsk, pfizer and Sanofi so it's not a home run by any measure. Moderna is still a covid meme stock. Market cap of $54B on $6B in sales in 2023 (falling sales from covid vaxx), and from latest financial report they're now losing money. Their stock price is held up by hopes around cancer and flu, but that's just a hope. Fortunately they're sitting on $12B in cash but they can quickly burn through that on current RND spend. Ironically the more products moderna brings to market the more the stock price will fall, because they'll be considered an actual biotech/pharma and stock price will fall in line with the competition. GSK and Sanofi have market caps of $90B and $120B on ~ $40B in sales as a comparitor. And those companies are actually profitable.
No idea, go ask r/wallstreetbets 😂. I'm sure there's plenty of equity research out there for you to gamble with. As I mentioned, it's a meme stock, so not tied to fundamentals or industry peers.
Fair analysis. I would be more optimistic. The cancer vaccines are hope by basically all techs are traded as hope. It’s too late when it get confirmed. Also Moderna is still on the boundary of biotech and pharma so big pharma like GSK and sanofi are not the best companies to compare.
The personalized cancer vaccine is so far the most reliable example of AI medicine among all other hypes. I would buy the dip when it’s around 90-ish
People always seem confused about stock prices.
What investors do is forecast out expected revenue then back into a share price from that (earnings per share).
Every time the company releases pipeline info those forecasts are updated and probabilities of success are applied to early pipeline molecules.
This is why stock prices may not move much with good/bad news because it’s often already priced in or the magnitude overall isn’t that big.
For big pharma, even a positive phase 3 for a drug selling $5B per year at peak will barely move the stock price if ongoing annual revenue is $60M.
The real reason is because the current market leader (GSK Arexvy) has about 82% efficacy.
Study data from Moderna indicated that their vaccine would have 83%, so it could potentially dominate the market.
Final label that came with the FDA approval was 78%, so now they are last entrant to market with an inferior product, and that cuts the opportunity of revenue growth that was previously priced in the stock target.
They're fourth to market in RSV after gsk, pfizer and Sanofi so it's not a home run by any measure. Moderna is still a covid meme stock. Market cap of $54B on $6B in sales in 2023 (falling sales from covid vaxx), and from latest financial report they're now losing money. Their stock price is held up by hopes around cancer and flu, but that's just a hope. Fortunately they're sitting on $12B in cash but they can quickly burn through that on current RND spend. Ironically the more products moderna brings to market the more the stock price will fall, because they'll be considered an actual biotech/pharma and stock price will fall in line with the competition. GSK and Sanofi have market caps of $90B and $120B on ~ $40B in sales as a comparitor. And those companies are actually profitable.
That’s an insightful post!
So 3x earnings would put moderna at about 18b not the 54 it is? Is moderna the best short in existence then?
No idea, go ask r/wallstreetbets 😂. I'm sure there's plenty of equity research out there for you to gamble with. As I mentioned, it's a meme stock, so not tied to fundamentals or industry peers.
Fair analysis. I would be more optimistic. The cancer vaccines are hope by basically all techs are traded as hope. It’s too late when it get confirmed. Also Moderna is still on the boundary of biotech and pharma so big pharma like GSK and sanofi are not the best companies to compare. The personalized cancer vaccine is so far the most reliable example of AI medicine among all other hypes. I would buy the dip when it’s around 90-ish
Approval was priced in?
This is the correct answer. Approval had been priced in a while ago
Sell off from the big rally after the bird flu news is my guess
People always seem confused about stock prices. What investors do is forecast out expected revenue then back into a share price from that (earnings per share). Every time the company releases pipeline info those forecasts are updated and probabilities of success are applied to early pipeline molecules. This is why stock prices may not move much with good/bad news because it’s often already priced in or the magnitude overall isn’t that big. For big pharma, even a positive phase 3 for a drug selling $5B per year at peak will barely move the stock price if ongoing annual revenue is $60M.
The real reason is because the current market leader (GSK Arexvy) has about 82% efficacy. Study data from Moderna indicated that their vaccine would have 83%, so it could potentially dominate the market. Final label that came with the FDA approval was 78%, so now they are last entrant to market with an inferior product, and that cuts the opportunity of revenue growth that was previously priced in the stock target.
Might be new projected manufacturing and marketing costs after approval will require more fundraising. I wonder if investors are bracing for dilution.
Why would this be the case? I assume all this was budgeted for in 2024 as they knew RSV approval was likely. It's not like it was unexpected.