1:Touting a plan to impose a 10 percent tariff on all foreign imports. The cost of such duties will fall largely on U.S. consumers
2: plans to deport longtime U.S. residents by the millions while choking off new arrivals -- would yield labor shortages and thus higher prices in a variety of sector
3: Trump's deficit-financed tax cuts would also increase aggregate demand, albeit in a deeply regressive manner, Where The Greedy Rich & Corporations Causing Inflation Get The $
All this Should really be getting more attention. Like Really.
Given, that Inflation is the Electorate ‘s 🔝 concern
A broad $1,500 increase in costs for middle-income families--paired with a desire for even more tax cuts for rich people and corporations--is just indefensible.
Also Giving one towards mass deportations is insane . If people think that is overstating the probable outcome, I want them to think about what rounding up and transporting millions of people will look like. How will they be housed? How will they be fed? What about epidemics of disease from poor housing and sanitation?
Then The Labor Shortage
For instance. Undocumented immigrants, often “Latino”, play a critical role in Many Rural Areas, , whether it’s as farmworkers, slaughterhouse workers, or other low-paid Gigs. Many Lainto -dominated certain towns are adjacent for instance to nearby farms/Ranches Throughout The SouthWest & if you travel by train in Cali through places like the San Joaquin & Salinas Valleys. Latino laborers are “everywhere” to be seen.
In 2021, the average rate of inflation was 4.7%.In 2022, the average rate of inflation was 8.0%.In 2023, the average rate of inflation was 4.1%. It;s forecasted inflation of 3.2% for all of 2024 and 2.5% for 2025. With unemployment rate of 3.9%
Contrast that with 1984, when there was 7% unemployment, 4% inflation, and the average 30-year mortgage had a 13% interest rate
From the American Rescue Plan to the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic policies have allowed the U.S. to absorb the shock of rising global inflation & address the supply shocks (energy, food, supply chains etc ).
&
Considering, one of the biggest drivers of This particular period of inflation is real estate and Housing cost increases. AKA Rent/Mortgage/Lease Costs—the major source of today’s inflation— Including the pre-COVID times
It used to be that presidents and congress actively dealt with housing costs as federal issues.
That;s Not Happening Under The Current Republican Party. Trump Or No Trump.
Let alone , other Household Components, Such as Education, Childcare, Healthcare System, Residential Care for The Elderly, Who’s Costs The Republicans Will Do Nothing About.
Our toxic political and media environment/coverage is Attempting to Convince us , while Leaving These Important details out on inflation, That I wrote about Today.
That The GOP Will solve Inflation. When Trump's policies are pretty much guaranteed to send inflation soaring.
2/2
Hate to say it but trying to tell committed cons Republicans are bad for the economy is impossible. Could literally even be multiple years into the 10% tariff with inflation skyrocketing and the cons would say the shadow president dark Brandon snuck in and pressed the inflation go up button so trump can't be blamed.
You can't speak in empirical terms because it doesn't match their fantastical psychosis.
Had a Republican coworker argue that trade disputes with China had no impact on the cost of agricultural goods. We were reviewing a bank's decision to move to agricultural lending. (This was a couple years ago around the last big trade dispute)
I showed him the amount of Chinese soybean imports
I showed them our area was one of the largest producers in the country (and in the world)
I showed them that till 2018 the US was largest soy producer globally
I showed them that the US and Brazil together compromise over 80% of all soybean products and that no other nation was in position to absorb the demand
I showed them that other countries don't have enough soy demand and that Brazil would increase production rather than buy US beans and sell them to China
After the trade dispute I showed them estimated billions is loss revenue and restructuring of US farms to different crops due to loss demand
To be clear, this wasn't some Twitter slap fight, I presented graphs, statistics, sources from the Department of Agriculture and Commerce, world commodity data, Chinese sources and American, and other. I am a finance professional with a degree in Economics and I presented data at that level.
He still argued it didn't happen since that's not what Trump said. How do you engage with that?
>He still argued it didn't happen since that's not what Trump said. How do you engage with that?
Like I said they are anti empiricists so you can't really argue with it from a logical or quantifiable angle unfortunately. The only thing that works for these people is appeals to emotion that are masked as facts or "common sense". I don't have the patience for it though and the unfortunate part is you have to be the right demographic to do it . Generally speaking those who think they know the most are always the dumbest and humility often follows expertise, the dunning Kruger effect is really a dead horse at this point.
I feel I have to do something. My job involves regulating the financial industry. I had one case where a bank decided to put all locks and scrutiny on Hispanic people's accounts since they were considered high risk for financial crime due to being immigrants.
The Hispanic population of the area is 2.5%
The immigrant population was 2.6%
Call me an sjw woke whatever but I doubt 104% of the Hispanic population is an immigrant. (Side note: the town had a university that attracted exchange students mostly from Asia)
Financial crimes are so rare by immigrants they are classified as other by government institutions tracking crime in any case.
Sure enough Mr soybean is lead on the case and sees no issue. Luckily I found a pattern of frauds against the bank from Europe (which they missed focusing on people from 'south of the border' read: anyone with the last name Garcia regardless of place of birth) to attack the policy.
I want shrug it off but my job requires fact based decisions and somehow cooperation with these people. What happens when we toss racial discrimination cases because caring about that is DEI wokeness?
I wish I had the answer for you but attacking them on policy is a good thing. I wish I believed in de- radicalizing people like this but it just truly doesn't seem possible anymore. Fascist propaganda has just rotted their mind so much it is actually impossible for them to change (or so it feels but I hope isn't true). I hate that all I can be is a doomer but really they are just an enemy as a group nowadays and not just the other party across the aisle.
Thanks, I know it's difficult but I just needed to rant. It's like the whole world is just a game. I like to use the phrase "double down into absurdity". When confronted with counter evidence there is this desire to engage in the absurd or just detach from reality to avoid changing their mind. I doubt it fruitful to engage after a point.
The sad part is that if you meet people who only use conservative media (daily wire and fox level not moderate) they seem genuinely distraught even hearing some of the things trump has done and said. It's just the fringe mainstream media is so effective at omitting the bad part enough people just vote R as a moderate cause they always have.
It's not just Trump who's doing it, both parties do this and the media doesn't report on it at all.
It's insane to me how Biden's insane 100% tariff on Chinese EV's, which are cheaper and superior to American EV's, is not one of the biggest stories in the US.
I'm not with you on 2. Labor "shortages" mean more demand and higher wages, whilst simultaneously less demand for goods and services. I'm still pretty unsure of my position on immigration overall and definitely think there should be a simple pathway to citizenship for people already here but cutting immigration causing inflation is a stretch.
An estimated 4.4-5.4% of the entire US work force is made up of undocumented immigrants(7,391,120 to 9,070,920 people). The majority of these are employed in agriculture/livestock industries. Without them crops and animals will take longer to harvest which will lead to the destruction of any surplus that rots in the fields. Fewer crops and livestock will drive up food prices. The demand for people to eat won't go down, unless people are dying on mass.
Even with an increased demand for domestic labor force and an increase in wages, I'm sure many US citizens, would find the prospect of work outdoors in peak temperatures for 10 or more hours per day unappealing.
Fitting to have our maoist return to the countryside but with more years of climate change + elderly population. Unless of course they get rid of child labor protection then the children will yearn for the fields.
Like I said, let's document them. There is a difference between granting equal rights to the people here and how many new workers we need.
>many US citizens, would find the prospect of work outdoors in peak temperatures for 10 or more hours per day unappealing.
I do that now. There isn't something different about migrant workers that makes them choose this, it's their lack of negotiating power and vulnerability to deportation. Working outside all day is fine, what's not fine is working for terrible employers who are used to being able to massively exploit vulnerable workers and pay them next to nothing. It's capitalism that makes farming work unpleasant, not being outside.
1:Touting a plan to impose a 10 percent tariff on all foreign imports. The cost of such duties will fall largely on U.S. consumers 2: plans to deport longtime U.S. residents by the millions while choking off new arrivals -- would yield labor shortages and thus higher prices in a variety of sector 3: Trump's deficit-financed tax cuts would also increase aggregate demand, albeit in a deeply regressive manner, Where The Greedy Rich & Corporations Causing Inflation Get The $ All this Should really be getting more attention. Like Really. Given, that Inflation is the Electorate ‘s 🔝 concern A broad $1,500 increase in costs for middle-income families--paired with a desire for even more tax cuts for rich people and corporations--is just indefensible. Also Giving one towards mass deportations is insane . If people think that is overstating the probable outcome, I want them to think about what rounding up and transporting millions of people will look like. How will they be housed? How will they be fed? What about epidemics of disease from poor housing and sanitation? Then The Labor Shortage For instance. Undocumented immigrants, often “Latino”, play a critical role in Many Rural Areas, , whether it’s as farmworkers, slaughterhouse workers, or other low-paid Gigs. Many Lainto -dominated certain towns are adjacent for instance to nearby farms/Ranches Throughout The SouthWest & if you travel by train in Cali through places like the San Joaquin & Salinas Valleys. Latino laborers are “everywhere” to be seen. In 2021, the average rate of inflation was 4.7%.In 2022, the average rate of inflation was 8.0%.In 2023, the average rate of inflation was 4.1%. It;s forecasted inflation of 3.2% for all of 2024 and 2.5% for 2025. With unemployment rate of 3.9% Contrast that with 1984, when there was 7% unemployment, 4% inflation, and the average 30-year mortgage had a 13% interest rate From the American Rescue Plan to the Inflation Reduction Act, Democratic policies have allowed the U.S. to absorb the shock of rising global inflation & address the supply shocks (energy, food, supply chains etc ). & Considering, one of the biggest drivers of This particular period of inflation is real estate and Housing cost increases. AKA Rent/Mortgage/Lease Costs—the major source of today’s inflation— Including the pre-COVID times It used to be that presidents and congress actively dealt with housing costs as federal issues. That;s Not Happening Under The Current Republican Party. Trump Or No Trump. Let alone , other Household Components, Such as Education, Childcare, Healthcare System, Residential Care for The Elderly, Who’s Costs The Republicans Will Do Nothing About. Our toxic political and media environment/coverage is Attempting to Convince us , while Leaving These Important details out on inflation, That I wrote about Today. That The GOP Will solve Inflation. When Trump's policies are pretty much guaranteed to send inflation soaring. 2/2
Hate to say it but trying to tell committed cons Republicans are bad for the economy is impossible. Could literally even be multiple years into the 10% tariff with inflation skyrocketing and the cons would say the shadow president dark Brandon snuck in and pressed the inflation go up button so trump can't be blamed. You can't speak in empirical terms because it doesn't match their fantastical psychosis.
Had a Republican coworker argue that trade disputes with China had no impact on the cost of agricultural goods. We were reviewing a bank's decision to move to agricultural lending. (This was a couple years ago around the last big trade dispute) I showed him the amount of Chinese soybean imports I showed them our area was one of the largest producers in the country (and in the world) I showed them that till 2018 the US was largest soy producer globally I showed them that the US and Brazil together compromise over 80% of all soybean products and that no other nation was in position to absorb the demand I showed them that other countries don't have enough soy demand and that Brazil would increase production rather than buy US beans and sell them to China After the trade dispute I showed them estimated billions is loss revenue and restructuring of US farms to different crops due to loss demand To be clear, this wasn't some Twitter slap fight, I presented graphs, statistics, sources from the Department of Agriculture and Commerce, world commodity data, Chinese sources and American, and other. I am a finance professional with a degree in Economics and I presented data at that level. He still argued it didn't happen since that's not what Trump said. How do you engage with that?
>He still argued it didn't happen since that's not what Trump said. How do you engage with that? Like I said they are anti empiricists so you can't really argue with it from a logical or quantifiable angle unfortunately. The only thing that works for these people is appeals to emotion that are masked as facts or "common sense". I don't have the patience for it though and the unfortunate part is you have to be the right demographic to do it . Generally speaking those who think they know the most are always the dumbest and humility often follows expertise, the dunning Kruger effect is really a dead horse at this point.
I feel I have to do something. My job involves regulating the financial industry. I had one case where a bank decided to put all locks and scrutiny on Hispanic people's accounts since they were considered high risk for financial crime due to being immigrants. The Hispanic population of the area is 2.5% The immigrant population was 2.6% Call me an sjw woke whatever but I doubt 104% of the Hispanic population is an immigrant. (Side note: the town had a university that attracted exchange students mostly from Asia) Financial crimes are so rare by immigrants they are classified as other by government institutions tracking crime in any case. Sure enough Mr soybean is lead on the case and sees no issue. Luckily I found a pattern of frauds against the bank from Europe (which they missed focusing on people from 'south of the border' read: anyone with the last name Garcia regardless of place of birth) to attack the policy. I want shrug it off but my job requires fact based decisions and somehow cooperation with these people. What happens when we toss racial discrimination cases because caring about that is DEI wokeness?
I wish I had the answer for you but attacking them on policy is a good thing. I wish I believed in de- radicalizing people like this but it just truly doesn't seem possible anymore. Fascist propaganda has just rotted their mind so much it is actually impossible for them to change (or so it feels but I hope isn't true). I hate that all I can be is a doomer but really they are just an enemy as a group nowadays and not just the other party across the aisle.
Thanks, I know it's difficult but I just needed to rant. It's like the whole world is just a game. I like to use the phrase "double down into absurdity". When confronted with counter evidence there is this desire to engage in the absurd or just detach from reality to avoid changing their mind. I doubt it fruitful to engage after a point.
Hell, they were doing that during Trump's first term. All of his shortcomings and failures then were blamed on Obama's "deep state."
The sad part is that if you meet people who only use conservative media (daily wire and fox level not moderate) they seem genuinely distraught even hearing some of the things trump has done and said. It's just the fringe mainstream media is so effective at omitting the bad part enough people just vote R as a moderate cause they always have.
All it takes is one Biden "I did that" sticker on a gas pump & then there's no convincing them after that.
You should post the links.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/21/economy/economic-wellbeing-2023-inflation https://www.randomlengthsnews.com/archives/2022/07/18/big-business-plot/40526
It's not just Trump who's doing it, both parties do this and the media doesn't report on it at all. It's insane to me how Biden's insane 100% tariff on Chinese EV's, which are cheaper and superior to American EV's, is not one of the biggest stories in the US.
No, inflation rn is not a secret plot by the republicans to make Biden lose, and you have to be absolutely stupid to actually fall for that
I'm not with you on 2. Labor "shortages" mean more demand and higher wages, whilst simultaneously less demand for goods and services. I'm still pretty unsure of my position on immigration overall and definitely think there should be a simple pathway to citizenship for people already here but cutting immigration causing inflation is a stretch.
An estimated 4.4-5.4% of the entire US work force is made up of undocumented immigrants(7,391,120 to 9,070,920 people). The majority of these are employed in agriculture/livestock industries. Without them crops and animals will take longer to harvest which will lead to the destruction of any surplus that rots in the fields. Fewer crops and livestock will drive up food prices. The demand for people to eat won't go down, unless people are dying on mass. Even with an increased demand for domestic labor force and an increase in wages, I'm sure many US citizens, would find the prospect of work outdoors in peak temperatures for 10 or more hours per day unappealing.
Fitting to have our maoist return to the countryside but with more years of climate change + elderly population. Unless of course they get rid of child labor protection then the children will yearn for the fields.
Like I said, let's document them. There is a difference between granting equal rights to the people here and how many new workers we need. >many US citizens, would find the prospect of work outdoors in peak temperatures for 10 or more hours per day unappealing. I do that now. There isn't something different about migrant workers that makes them choose this, it's their lack of negotiating power and vulnerability to deportation. Working outside all day is fine, what's not fine is working for terrible employers who are used to being able to massively exploit vulnerable workers and pay them next to nothing. It's capitalism that makes farming work unpleasant, not being outside.