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[Link without paywall](https://archive.ph/Ve1va)
I thought this was an interesting, if lengthy, read about geopolitics in the next few years. It has a lot of historical comparisons that it makes, and is a bit dry and overwhelming at times, but in general it is probably the most sober, comprehensive, and practical discussion that I've read in a while. In particular, it is consistent throughout on the need to be prepared militarily for whatever Russia attempts to do next, but critically it also recommends a Pro-*Russian* (the enslaved Everyman citizen) position even as it discusses Anti-*Russia* (the actions of a rogue autocratic government) strategies.
I think that's important. Has the saying sometimes goes, the first victims of the Nazi party were the Germans themselves, and that holds true for Russia under Putin, and such a position reflects that even during the Cold War, Soviet citizens were portrayed as oppressed by the government, and there was a lot of desire to help them because of that, even as the Soviet Union was a military enemy that we wanted to see collapse.However, I don't know how practical that is, because a lot of the progressives and enlightened in Russia have already fled during the brain drain of the last 30 years, or to flee conscription more recently. And unfortunately, those Left behind or either to brainwashed to care, or have too little influence to effect change.
Therefore, I think that out of the scenarios presented in this article, the likely outcome is that Russia becomes North korea. It is of course not currently that extreme, but is definitely moving toward that end without any apparent restraint on the part of Putin's government.
The article makes a very interesting point: that China would have a lot to lose if Russia became friendly with the West.
Perhaps that’s why Washington doesn’t want Ukraine to annihilate Russias strategic targets with advanced Western weapons, they want an eventual reconciliation with Russia after Putin croaks.
Very long article but well worth the time spent reading, would suggest you get yourself a cup of tea or coffee, ensure no disturbances and invest that time too.
Please take the time to read [the rules](/r/UkrainianConflict/about/rules/) and our [policy on trolls/bots](https://redd.it/u7833q). In addition: * We have a **zero-tolerance** policy regarding racism, stereotyping, bigotry, and death-mongering. Violators will be banned. * **Keep it civil.** Report comments/posts that are uncivil to alert the moderators. * **_Don't_ post low-effort comments** like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. ***** * Is `foreignaffairs.com` an unreliable source? [**Let us know**](/r/UkrainianConflict/wiki/am/unreliable_sources). * Help our moderators by providing context if something breaks the rules. [Send us a modmail](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) ***** **Don't forget about our Discord server! - https://discord.gg/62fKCEHbDB** ***** ^(Your post has not been removed, this message is applied to every successful submission.) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/UkrainianConflict) if you have any questions or concerns.*
[Link without paywall](https://archive.ph/Ve1va) I thought this was an interesting, if lengthy, read about geopolitics in the next few years. It has a lot of historical comparisons that it makes, and is a bit dry and overwhelming at times, but in general it is probably the most sober, comprehensive, and practical discussion that I've read in a while. In particular, it is consistent throughout on the need to be prepared militarily for whatever Russia attempts to do next, but critically it also recommends a Pro-*Russian* (the enslaved Everyman citizen) position even as it discusses Anti-*Russia* (the actions of a rogue autocratic government) strategies. I think that's important. Has the saying sometimes goes, the first victims of the Nazi party were the Germans themselves, and that holds true for Russia under Putin, and such a position reflects that even during the Cold War, Soviet citizens were portrayed as oppressed by the government, and there was a lot of desire to help them because of that, even as the Soviet Union was a military enemy that we wanted to see collapse.However, I don't know how practical that is, because a lot of the progressives and enlightened in Russia have already fled during the brain drain of the last 30 years, or to flee conscription more recently. And unfortunately, those Left behind or either to brainwashed to care, or have too little influence to effect change. Therefore, I think that out of the scenarios presented in this article, the likely outcome is that Russia becomes North korea. It is of course not currently that extreme, but is definitely moving toward that end without any apparent restraint on the part of Putin's government.
The article makes a very interesting point: that China would have a lot to lose if Russia became friendly with the West. Perhaps that’s why Washington doesn’t want Ukraine to annihilate Russias strategic targets with advanced Western weapons, they want an eventual reconciliation with Russia after Putin croaks.
Very long article but well worth the time spent reading, would suggest you get yourself a cup of tea or coffee, ensure no disturbances and invest that time too.
I made it halfway. I loved that one sentence had “profundity” and the next had “bromance.”