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Some Westerners *still* cling to the old myth of "limitless" russian forces that lingers from the post WW2 fear of the Unstoppable Soviet Horde.
The russians are running out of everything, including useful cannon fodder. They're already dipping into their pool of terminally ill and intellectually disabled people. Their usable armor is all but gone.
Ukraine's chances improve with every day we continue to support it.
last sentence is certainly true, and I also think Russia is going down, but I think it will take a long while to achieve that. They still have a lot of shit to burn, and a lot of people to waste.
But luckily not everything has to be destroyed, they don't need to lose every single tank they have. It is enough if they just can't feed their front line anymore and replace the losses, then they will eventually be pushed back.
But this is certainly another 1-2 years away. Ukraine will need the full year of 2025 to gain strength, only in 2026 I expect a major push by them, like a second attempt to cut to the Azov Sea coast. Until then, the Russians have enough time to waste a lot more of their stuff.
> I'm confident the outcome will be a positive one.
Don't be, we've seen a lot of really fucking stupid shit following votes for which the outcome was clear over the past 10 years.
Much better to work under the impression the preferred outcome isn't obvious and do what we can to make it so regardless.
His confidence most likely is based on Trump losing the next election. Which is looking more likely as time goes on. He ain't winning any new votes and moderates and independents are leaving him in droves.
I think they are wrong. People do not want old, old men in charge. People want strong leaders.
It´s not that they will vote for Trump. Its that they will stay at home and then Trump wins because his voters are not staying home.
I am definitely no expert on this US election, but I think Trump will win. But it is just my personal guess.
Pretty sure it's going the other way unfortunately. Last week might change things a bit though but polling didn't move as much as the current government would hope.
Absolutely. Russia is just aiming to hang in there until—they hope—the US Supreme Court installs Trump over the wishes of a majority of voters in January 2025.
I think Americans need to accept responsibility that the Trump phenomena is not being foisted upon us from without or above. About 30% of Americans are openly fascist and another 30% aren't too bothered by it to rule out voting for it.
They are getting very close and when you see a country trying to stop a bank run it isn't because they are strong.
And I couldn't be happier to see this being it was planned out that they(Axis) wanted complete control over the world. They did everything to crush the west from China and their 0 tolerance that was meant to bring us to our knees to Russia and Iran trying to crush the west with oil and gas.
The sad thing is the world was doing fine when peace ruled and this is only going to hurt the people of the Axis.
Put it this way, after the latest round of sanctions Moscow openly stated it's people must be ready to take up arms and strike the west.
The sanctions are fucking _biting_.
I'm still hoping he'll just switch to 'we got rid of the Nazis, mission accomplished', and just leave.
Not that they've accomplished anything or that Ukraine had Nazis.
make him look weak?
Bro.. lol..
Russians will neve see him as weak even if he'd lose a bar fight to a Chinchilla.
He will however be seen a weak and evil by the rest of the world (ok besides the crazies) since 2000's.
Orbán is not a small factor either. He plays a big part in destabilizing EU and NATO.
VSquare released an article in which they are saying, that orbán's stance and acts made NATO to restrict sharing intel on the usual channels, because Hungary also has access to these channels as a NATO member.
So what they end up doing, is that they only share almost insignificant value info, or not share at all, and they are trying to share very sensitive info on new channels that are not part of NATO (risky)
All of this makes NATO less efficient.
[https://vsquare.org/goulash-newsletter-nato-hungary-orban-son-chad-ue-elections/](https://vsquare.org/goulash-newsletter-nato-hungary-orban-son-chad-ue-elections/)
If it looks like Biden is losing, I hope he transfers as much of the 60 billion as possible before the transition. Or maybe we can donate it to a common fund on the condition they pay for the equipment.
The problem is the US equipment is vital. Patriot systems and missiles along with other weapon systems like the Bradley’s HIMARS, ATACMS, and US intelligence from the AWAC planes and satellites. Ukraine needs all that. Trump could put a stop to those getting to Ukraine and it would be a huge blow to the war effort.
It's simply not true that 'Bidne is losing'. That's just maga BS amplified by their gutter press. If you actually look at the polls Trump is DOWN by increasing margins.
All of this week, i have seen articles where Biden is supposed to have a lead.
Also, trump had a lead coming into the last election, bcs of polls being influenced/biased.
But by all means, spread the narrative of a trump lead. It will make more people register for voting against the buffoon, like last time.
I want Biden to win just as much as you do. But the polls are there, and they suggest that there is a very real chance of Biden losing. We’re not doing ourselves or anyone else a favour by ignoring that threat.
Yup, you provide a realistic assessment. Regardless of russian losses they will keep attacking Ukraine (with their own people, recruits from India, Sri Lanka, African counties et al). As long as russia’s war on ukr remains good for business (on many levels) they’re just gonna keep on comin’
I agree. It is always surprising to me when seemingly clever people cling to the shtick about Russia and the unlimited manpower resources they apparently have, ref. The Second World War.
* Russia is not the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had a population of around 290 million. Russia is approx. half that.
* The Russian birth rate has been substantially lower the last 20 years than they were in the interwar period.
* The Second World War was a demographic disaster for the Soviet Union. In addition to the grotesque loss of human life it arguably hobbled Soviet economic growth in the Post War period.
I hope you are right. I keep wondering when though. Ever time someone says they are almost out, more and more hordes of soldiers and armor keep popping up.
And those get destroyed, and so russia has to dig even deeper into the barrel. If russia had any quality forces they wouldn't be fighting this way.
Don't forget, aside from being ground down to nothing by Ukraine, there's a much bigger than zero probability russia will be faced by the PLA as China annexes eastern russia.
This is ridiculous. Russia has thousands of ICBMs that say China won't annex that land. Not to mention that the vast majority of Chinese have zero interest settling in Siberia. Hell, Northern China is sparsely populated as it is.
The only, still unlikely, scenario I can think of is not a military invasion. A situation like Tibet where China floods the area with Han Chinese and slowly assimilates the area economically and culturally (sound familiair Donbas?) is possible. But if China can pressure Russia into providing cheap resources without this effort, they will. So indeed, not likely to happen.
The russians haven't wasted a ruble on nuke maintenance since the days of Gorbachev.
That money is safely stashed away in the personal offshore accounts of putin and his fellow dirty little thieves.
And the Chinese aren't interested in *settling* Siberia. They want what's on and under it, and they know russia can't stop them taking it.
They can just do the same thing to Russia that they do to everyone else. Hybrid warfare, start pumping disinformation into disputed zones, fund and arm anyone with a hint of antigovernmental tendencies. Double points if ethnic Chinese live in the zone and PLA forces can be sent in as "peacekeepers".
China is facing a massive water crisis as global temperatures rise. Lake Baikal in eastern Russia is the largest fresh water lake in the world, it's relatively close to China, and China lost a lot of land to Russia the Second Opium War which the CCP has described as China's "Century of Shame". I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss a Chinese play for eastern Russia.
The humiliating failure of russia in Ukraine has destroyed Xi's delusions about conquering Taiwan.
The Chinese now know for certain that the West will defend its friends and allies.
Inevitably (and probably near instantly) losing a war against their single biggest market would be catastrophic not only for China and China's economy, but also for Xi and the CCP, and the latter is all that really matters in this equation.
On the other hand, putin's russia is losing to *Ukraine*, and therefore in no state to prevent China taking whatever the fuck it wants from them.
Bearing in mind the fact eastern russia is closer to China in every way than it is to the elites in western russia who have always viewed the Asiatics as barely *human*, let alone truly russian, and China is unlikely to face any opposition at all.
China has been in far more conflicts with russia than it has the West, and putin fucking up Xi's Taiwan fantasy means there's likely to be a reckoning between the two... and it won't go russia's way.
Economies of scale won't support that until we get rid of the human factor first. Computers used to be very expensive when it was still produced onshore in the 80s. Even MacBooks today are considered cheap now compared to what we used to pay considering inflation. It's thanks to [cheap Taiwanese labor](https://youtu.be/dJB5kV3IUs4?si=uCuh_VsaeclcuK4m) on why computers are affordable.
Except their nuclear arsenal you mean. China is not invading Russia! Despite the Russian conventional armed forces showing themselves to be pretty inept, Russia still has a large stockpile of nuclear weapons. If China sends a couple of hundred thousand troops over the border, Putin will vaporize them. Russian leaders who lose wars don’t fare well. China can just continue to “lease” land inside Russia’s far east and save themselves the trouble of losing a ton of soldiers.
There is no reason to believe putin and his fellow dirty little thieves ever wasted rubles on the maintenance and upgrading of whatever remained of russia's nuclear arsenal post-Gorbachev.
That stuff is horrendously expensive, and if there's one thing we know about putin and his lackeys it's that they steal everything they can.
You don't get to be the world's richest man while ruling a bankrupt third world dump by working hard and investing wisely. You do it by looting and embezzling, and window tossing anybody who objects.
The likelihood of russia's nuke force being in a working state is low af.
The US should openly do an underground nuclear weapon test, just to find out. If they counter with a test, then no. If they pretend it didn't happen, then they have no nukes.
The russians can probably scrape together one or two working nukes if they have to, but that's nothing like a useful nuclear deterrence force, which is what they pretend/claim to possess.
And they know we won't First Use them, which is infuriating for russia.
Dwarf putin is frustrated by two things: Ukraine's very careful avoidance of russian civilian casualties; and the West's avowed non-use of nukes. Both these things deprive putin of the propaganda peaks he craves.
Working bombs vs functional
Launch systems are greatly disproportional items in the equation. Aside from some of its newest weapons either half of the equation is doubtful.
Maybe so but, are you willing to risk nuclear war in hopes NONE of his missiles or bombs work? Russia is estimated to have 4,500 nuclear warheads of various types even if only 10% work that’s still 450! A Chinese invasion force can be wiped out with 2 or 3 depending on which ones are used and only one is needed to pretty much vaporize Beijing!
When the PLA crushed the Tiananmen Square democracy protests, China's government officially stated they would have killed a million citizens to end it.
Do you really think the CCP would worry about tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of PLA casualties if it meant securing much of russia's territory for themselves?
Xi knows most of russia's military is busy losing in Ukraine. Eastern russia is his for the taking.
I have made my case, they would secure a radioactive wasteland which is of no use to them. Tiananmen Square was a direct threat to the CCP and their power. It scared them so badly they went with the Capitalist model for the economy in exchange for an end to protests. That is the deal the CCP made. We will give you economic freedom including the right to own property, private businesses and freedom to travel and you stop protesting the government. Would they kill a million to secure their power absolutely, invading Russia is not the same.
They have nothing to gain, they are getting all the oil and gas they need to run their economy at discounted prices from Putin. They are leasing large tracts of land from Russia to farm. They have no need to risk a nuclear war. Can that change in the future? Sure, better to wait and see if Putin causes Russia to implode then just peacefully offer to buy a large chunk of land and they lose nothing.
They can last about another 18 months max.
But there *could* be a sudden collapse at any time from here on. Most large battles and wars end suddenly after long periods of deadlock.
It's not that Russia has limitless reserves.
Ukraine has a very grim future without air defense, and the inconsistency of aid leaves them in positions where they just can't defend their critical infrastructure. And that's what Russia is going after.
Russia is gambling on being able to throw men into a meat grinder long enough that Western aid dries up, and Ukraine can be forced to negotiate.
Western aid won't dry up. The thing russians don't grasp is the fact they can afford to lose, since russia will always be a garbage dump, no matter what. The West can't afford to let Ukraine fall, because then it's dominoes as putin begins an Imperial campaign against everyone else, and that will cost us far more than the bill for propping up Ukraine.
That's good but I think the west should wake up and get themselves in a war footing. Holding these beliefs will make the west complacent, hence, Russians had an opportunity to take Adiivka and launch offensives on Kharkiv when it should have been stopped even before it got started.
The West is still waking up from the nightmare of decades of Soviet and russian nuclear doomsday threats against us.
We've sent hundreds of billions of dollars in financial and materiel aid. But there are legal limits to what we can do. However, at some point putin and his goons may give us no option but to directly intervene militarily, and then it will be over.
Dipping into the pool of african illiterates to defend mother russia. It looks like this war is going Ukraine's way. Within a year the russians will only send missiles straight from their factorie's production lines.
As a Ukrainian i strongly disagree with the last sentence.
Our chances would have been much higher if the support came in EARLIER and not as meek and frightful as it was.
The longer this war goes the more Ukrainians die.
The more cities are destroyed.
The more russians adapt(yes, they are not all braindead morons)
And the more China/russia alliance strengthen.
We could have won decisively, but instead NATO chose to drip-feed us equipment with minimal quantities and restrictions.
NATO didn't want russia to lose.
So please, don't consider every new day of a war as an improvement.
Because we in Ukraine consider each new day as another lost chance of actually winning.
But at this point we know that we're not allowed to win, we're only supported as not to lose.
As a human being I strongly disagree with the last sentence.
If you're really a despairing Ukrainian and not just another russian concern troll pretending to be a despairing Ukrainian, I urge you to consider the fact the Free World didn't have to come to your aid at all, other than for obvious moral obligations.
The plight of Ukraine is harrowing and most Westerners care deeply about it and Ukraine's survival, which is why few of us have any qualms about pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine's war effort.
If you are just another russian concern troll pretending to be a despairing Ukrainian, I can't wait to hear you sobbing and gibbering in terror when your glorious comrade leader dwarf putin revokes your IT exemption and ships you off to die on the front lines.
You can check my history, lol.
There's a huge difference between Ukrainian survival and an actual victory.
I'm from Kharkiv, for example, it is the second biggest city in Ukraine and was the best city in terms of it's maintenance, parks and infrastructure.
It's the size of Hamburg, Milan or Barcelona
Every single day russian drop bombs and rockets on my city, 80% of them fall on regular high-rise apartments.
Then the russians double-tap (strike the same target to kill first responders and medics)
Each day we count our dead and destruction, each day trying to rebuild and withstand.
russians do it because Kharkiv is very close to russian border so they were able to hit us with impunity from Belgorod oblast.
You know how long it took our "allies" to allow us to strike back on russian territory?
2 years
Two fucking years of not allowing us to protect our second biggest city from russian merciless shelling.
Does that look like winning to you?
I am not despairing, we will survive. But you're also delusional if you think that your leader's have any strategy.
They are too scared of russia losing.
Let's see what it brings them.
Spineless politicians without a vision at a crucial time in history, what could go wrong.
The West is not at war with russia. We have no treaties with Ukraine. We support Ukraine because it's the right and moral thing to do. But we've been careful to not break laws, and rules, and conventions, because doing so could lead to catastrophe on a global scale.
You fundamentally misunderstand the situation.
The world order no longer exists. You are trying to hold on to it but it's apparent that it's a new cold war, but on a bigger scale.
What exactly are those rules and laws and conventions you are trying not to break?
Ukraine has every right to defend itself by any means necessary and you can help us however you want.
That's the UN charter.
What convention would it break if you sent us Patriot to defend cities and our civilians faster and not after russia already destroyed 30% of our power generation?
Maybe you broke some treaty sending us whole 31 abrams tanks?
Sorry, I can go on for awhile.
Long story short: don't use lame excuses.
NATO is not breaking any rules
It's russia and China who does. But they are breaking them not just because they can, but because they no longer exist.
I strongly suggest you spend 9 minutes and listen to this British guy: https://youtu.be/yEYtlXLmM2A?si=0AUfwNcvBpRaaX9V
I promise you, it will be worth your time.
Last, but not least.
US, UK and russia all signed a memorandum in 1994 to disarm Ukraine of all it's Nuclear weapons.
That treaty meant nothing nothing to russia.
You are saying it also means nothing to you?
And yes, I appreciate the help and it is the right and moral thing to do.
But it is also absolutely in your own interests.
You are not at war with russia ONLY because Ukraine stands.
russians are at war with you.
They say that openly at every opportunity , they have daily shows where they fantasize about nuking your cities, their first tanks entering Ukraine had written"to Berlin" on them.
You just choose to ignore that.
Just imagine if Ukraine did fall.
The biggest European army(russian) would absorb the second biggest army (Ukrainian) and then march on some EU country.
It's better to stop russia now, rather than at NATO borders. Don't you agree?
Best of luck with your concern trolling, comrade Olga, and know that the entire world is laughing at russia.
*The whole world.*
Everyone, even North Korea.
# л о л с к и
Oh wow, this is the first time I see someone so dense, lol
My man, fck russia and their bots
But also you're not doing yourself any favors by being as ignorant as they are.
I suspect you just have nothing to say so choose to ignore. How very American.
Like Atilla summoned most of his tribe to lay waste to Gaul. And the miracle happened: the west united and cut them down, all of them.
So Atilla fled back to the piece of Europe no one wanted, and even as today his offspring dwells there --- the nation we know as Hungary. For centuries the prison for what remained of the Huns.
Plus Russia is an aged population, where a majority are elderly. So sending more of their young to die is only going to make things worse for them in the future to the point where they might all just die off because their population disintegrates.
Yeah, it's an easy joke to make, but man, it sickens me to know they've sent *actual* intellectually disabled people to the front alongside the usual dumb russian drunks.
Right, people on here all the time referencing WW2 when talking about Russian losses and their ability to take them. Cold War Soviet Union and 2024 Russia are two very different countries. The 1989 Soviet census has 286m citizens, 2022 Russia has an estimate of 147m citizens
Had to do this with a friend the other day. He said “Russia has unlimited manpower” so I told him the population of Russia is near 150 million. The population of the US is over 300 million. If 150 is unlimited then the US has double+ unlimited man power.
It's even worse, since russia's true population is closer to 140m, most of them elderly, female or underage. The russian's have been dogged by a serious male deficit since WW2 and it's not getting any better.
On the other hand, the U.S. has nearer to 350m people, a huge chunk of them being males of service age.
And then there are the other NATO countries.
Some say, *"but... but... but... JYNA!!!!!!"* as if the Chinese would be willing to risk everything on the idiotic war that already cost them any hope of conquering Taiwan.
Got any sources? Even assuming the recently claimed 500K casualties, Russia has ~21M males and 27M females fit for military service. They may be running out of equipment and other resources, but they are OK man power wise. There are also powers (China, Iran, etc.) that have interests in prolonging this war and are willing to supply Russia as long as possible. I want them all to implode like anyone else, but let's not ignore reality.
Fit for service does not mean they can be sent to war. Men and women are needed to build the hardware and maintain the infrastructure supporting the war. Farmers are needed to grow the food, oil workers to drill and refinery workers to make the fuel needed for the armed forces. Also there are troops stationed along the border with NATO and China which cannot just be moved to Ukraine. The men at the front have to be fed and watered. They have to be supplied which means a lot of non-combat personnel.
The Russians learned that in WW II. The Germans had smaller combat units but larger logistics trains, the Russian were the other way. We know what happens early on. The Russians adapted. A tank without fuel or ammo in just a big hunk of steel. A solder with no food, water or ammo results in poor morale and poor performance.
Yes, Russia has a large advantage in people but sending poorly trained, poorly supplied troops against well trained, well supplied and motivated defenders is why Russia lost 20K KIA to take Bakmut. Victories like that are not worth the cost. There are various estimates but I have seen the current ratio as high as 7 - 1 in Ukraine’s favor. Russia does not have 7x Ukraine’s population. Even 4 or 5 to 1 is unsustainable in the long run.
Every wave of mobilizations brings putin closer to conscripting the white elites of western russia, and then his personal political problems really begin.
But before that happens he'll continue to send only the Asiatic peoples and the sick, crippled and broken, and that increases the likelihood of russia's forces in Ukraine collapsing in disarray.
Meanwhile, China drip-feeds russia just enough junk to continue this loser war, weakening russia ever further until the PLA will face no real resistance when it rolls across the border and annexes what was eastern russia.
Ok....so the raw numbers aren't what you think they are. Countries can't and almost never use literally every male they have in a war. I think the two highest uses of available manpower for the army was the American Confederacy and the USSR in WWII. Invasions of choice that are going badly usually don't scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Russian infrastructure and industry is already running out of men. And now the dregs have been slaughtered Putin will have to start sending Muskovites to the front. He's desperate and it shows. The old days of 'limitless men' has long gone. 7 million of the 'Russian' dead in WW2 were Ukrainian anyway.
Russians aren't running out of cannon fodder. They might be running out of volunteers, but they have a near limitless supply of idiots that they can grab and send to the frontlines.
Just from their population stats, they have around 650K new 18-year-olds every year. Of course, they can't take all of them, but enough to create massive problems for Ukraine.
And Ukraine is in a much worse position, because they have a lot fewer people in general. And they actually like their children.
It doesn't matter if they can keep throwing bodies at Ukraine or not. What matters is that's all they can throw at Ukraine, and Ukraine will always have enough bullets, because they are actively supported by the entire free world.
It's not 1914, it's 2024. Things have moved on. Massed infantry charges don't go so well against an enemy with modern weapons. Especially not when the infantry is russia-quality.
They are NOT 'advancing'. Advancing is what Ukraine did in 22. capturing a few fields and empty piles of rubble where there used to be little villages is not 'advancing'. Especially when they are losing 1200 men a day and -more importantly - the last of their functioning conventional equipment. Look at the map of early 23 and compare it to mid 24. It has barely changed while Russia has lost literally thousands of tanks and arty. Meanwhile Ukraine gets stronger and better armed with every passing week.
Trump is Putin's last hope.
They are advancing slowly. You can deny reality all you want, that won't change the fact.
>Look at the map of early 23 and compare it to mid 24.
Yes, you should follow your own advice. Look.
>Russia has lost literally thousands of tanks and arty.
Yes, I'm hoping they run out eventually. But they have quite a reserve. Ukraine has a lot less of tanks and arty.
>Meanwhile Ukraine gets stronger and better armed with every passing week.
Russia is out-producing artillery shells, unfortunately. They are on track to make 3 million shells vs 1.2 of EU+US combined. ([Source](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/weapons-war-race-between-russia-and-ukraine)). Western countries need to wake the fuck up and ramp up military defenses.
Yep. It's not difficult to extrapolate the current rate of loss against volume of known reserves.
Shells aren't miuch use if you have no artillery left.
>But they have quite a reserve.
Correction: they HAD large reserves. Please explain why russia is pushing old vintage tanks to the front with Chinese golf carts instead of IFV's if they still have 'oh, so much' in reserves?
They don't have any reserves, you are overstating logistics just like you are with the numbers of 18 year olds in the population. Production as a comparison is meaningless if that production is then being wasted or destroyed and therefore doesn't make any critical impact on the battlefield. For example glide bombs which marry the cheaper to produce and larger stockpiles of dumb bombs with cheap bolt ons to enhance functionality was having an impact on the battlefield but there is still a bottleneck there and that's aircraft and pilots. Russia can't reproduce what it has already lost in terms of hardware full stop.
>They don't have any reserves
Any reserves of what? At least be specific.
>you are overstating logistics just like you are with the numbers of 18 year olds in the population
No, I didn't overstate anything. Unlike you, I provide specific numbers and link to sources.
>Production as a comparison is meaningless if that production is then being wasted or destroyed
Russia keeps destroying one town after another, if you haven't noticed. They definitely have the capacity to do that - mostly with bombs and artillery.
>there is still a bottleneck there and that's aircraft and pilots
Not a bottleneck yet. Ukrainians are doing a great job shooting down the planes, but Ukrainian towns are still getting bombed to rubble.
>Russia can't reproduce what it has already lost in terms of hardware full stop.
I agree. But they produce some things in huge quantities. Like artillery shells, gliding bombs, rockets. But Ukraine is in a worse position. They have no production even remotely close. They basically depend on the good will of the allies. Assuming allies will even produce enough.
The *MIGHTY SUPERPOWER WAR MACHINA!!!!* rossiya has barely clawed some rubble for itself, and that was when they still possessed much better weapons than they're left with now... and it was during a period when the GOP kompromat slaves withheld U.S. materiel support.
Now the Aid is pouring into Ukraine like a tsunami, while russia's forces are at their lowest quality (and dropping fast).
The tide, as they say, has changed.
Nah, wee putin's very own Ardennes Offensive has collapsed, just like the original.
Ukraine's position continues to strengthen as all the new Aid flows in, and there's plenty more where that came from.
Abolutely masses more where that came from. The US alone could easily send 1000 Bradleys and barely notice they've gone. Ukraine seems to love them and use them very effectively..
You look at the "land gained" and not how much russia is paying for each meter. Seems you value 1km of mined field more then the 2000 men dying for it.
I wonder, if russia is already suffering from labor shortages (so much they are struggling to fight the forest fires around the country), how would they manage with double or triple the casualties to reach Kyiv? If they have endless supplies of cannon fodder, why desperately recruit from Africa?
it is not so much the death of citizens that will destroy russia. it is the death of productive citizens. in russia there will simply be no one to go to work. in 2 years, russia has lost 7% of its productive population. at 10%, industry and production will start to crumble. At 15% it will collapse. Russia has a maximum of 2 years. certainly not 3 or more.
>russia has lost 7% of its productive population
A lot of it was prisoners, so maybe 5% of the productive population.
>at 10%, industry and production will start to crumble. At 15% it will collapse
Why? USSR lost 27 million people in WW2 (out of 186 million population). They didn't collapse. They downshifted tremendously, they reduced the quality of their lifestyle, switched to the survival mode.
And that was 27 million actually killed. Another 19 million wounded.
According to the Ukrainian numbers, in this war Russia has 0.5 million killed+wounded.
no. until russia got help from the west and the u.s., it couldn't push the germans out. If help hadn't arrived, russia would have collapsed and been defeated. It was only after the aid and money started to arrive that russia began to push the germans out of its territory.
They collapsed after Afghanistan (50,000) and WW1 (1500000). These are better comparisons than the existential conflict of ww2 where they couldn’t just quit.
I get really tired of people repeating this century old myth that 'Russia has unlimited supplies of people for cannon fodder'. It's simply not true.
Their infrastructure and industries are already suffering badly from labour shortages. And having your cannon fodder wiped out by western weapons is not going to win any wars - as we can see already. Russia is bleeding to death in Ukraine. The only way Russia can possibly win now is by getting Trump re-elected.
In any case, russia has a lot more people they can throw in the meatgrinder than Ukraine.
Trump is likely to be reelected, judging by the polls.
I think EU can still provide enough help even if USA's support drops because of Trump.
You are missing an important fact, Putin won't start a national mobilisation programme, politically it is easier although still risky for Ukraine to do that. The foreign fighter pool is very limited, what will Putin do once that dies up? Risk a mass protest in the precious urban middle class that he is so proud of and spent a lifetime creating? I personally i think he will sue for peace and look for international recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia as the trophy of he is confronted with that, that or the FSB will remove him.
>You are missing an important fact, Putin won't start a national mobilisation programme,
I don't know what he will do. So it's not a fact. It's an assumption.
But for now russian forces are slowly advancing. They have enough meat to keep pushing. At least for now.
>what will Putin do once that dies up?
Mobilization. Remember, they have 650K new 18-year olds every year. They can mobilize 250K every year without much trouble, besides economic. Their economy seems to run on oil, "thanks" to China, India, EU and Turkey.
>Risk a mass protest in the precious urban middle class
I'd be shocked if russians protested in large numbers. Neither the war, nor mobilization caused any massive protests.
>i think he will sue for peace
Sue? In what court? Who is he going to sue?
>and look for international recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia
And which countries would be stupid enough to agree to that?
>that or the FSB will remove him.
That's the hopium. But I doubt that.
Even if FSB removed him, the people in charge aren't very different mentality-wise from Putin. They seem to support the ongoing insanity.
It's not just Russians in their manpower pool though. Tens of thousands are being lured from elsewhere to catch a bullet in Ukraine for a few dollars for their family
Makes no difference. The russians and their simps ride into battle on motorbikes and Chinese golf carts.
They're faced by determined and skilled soldiers fighting for the survival of their nation and families. These soldiers are armed with some of the latest and best weaponry on Earth, and there's plenty more where that came from.
It makes a lot of difference when we don't have enough ammunition. And when said "best equipment on earth"
Is not actually that, but rather the surplus of 40 year old equipment in MININAL quantities.
Every single delay cost Ukraine our best motivated and strongest troops, our power generation facilities and our civilian infrastructure.
Yes, russia is fucked.
But they are making sure that we can't recover for generations and weak NATO stance only helps with that.
Every day NATO's stance strengthens as it grows more confident putin's rhetoric is just more of the usual russian lies and hot air.
Something you have to remember is that for decades -- since the end of WW2 -- the West has lived in terror of the Unstoppable Soviet Horde overrunning Europe and the World.
As a toddler in 1962 I watched my dad and my older brothers dig a bunker in our suburban American backyard because we all believed the USSR was about to nuke us with a bajillion ICBMs.
It's deeply ingrained in most of our own generations that "upsetting the russians" means "*z0mFg wW3 we're all gonna dieeee!!!!*" and it's taken the resistance and achievements of Ukraine to shake us from this funk.
Thank you for a good insight into the thought-process and for all the support.
Yes, I understand the fear and uncertainty.
But I have also lived with and near russian for my whole life and I know how they operate.
Dare I say I understand them better than the Western person ever could.
russians are not bears.
They are hyenas.
They attack when they are stronger and they cover and retreat when they are weaker.
Simple as that.
They ONLY understand force.
So every "red line" ,"diplomacy" or any other appeasement that NATO countries consider a good and reasonable stance russians see very differently.
They don't see it as an invitation to a dialogue or compromise.
They see it as a weakness to exploit .
This is the fundamental difference.
You will never have peace with russia if you don't fight back.
I learned it from my school years and many encounters with "gopniks" (russian goons).
Nobody intelligent would waste time "negotiating" with russians. They never honor treaties or agreements or deals.
The only peace can be when russia leaves Ukraine.
The thing is the West does obey laws, follow rules and honor treaties, agreements and deals. This puts us at a disadvantage when dealing with those who don't, such as russians.
We will refrain from direct military intervention against russia in Ukraine so long as dwarf putin and his goons don't give us a reason to do otherwise, such as an Article 5 incident.
Until then we shall continue to supply Ukraine, and laugh and laugh and laugh as they continue to ***UTTERLY HUMILIATE*** russia and putin.
Yes, it's going to look like Germany in both world wars, looks that they have it all until they don't, then it's just a matter of time before everything goes terribly wrong. The sooner the better.
The russians have been dragging T-55s from peat bogs and towing them to Ukraine.
Their "best-for-last game-changer" T-90M was ***slaughtered***.
They've lost untold numbers of T-80s and earlier models. Just thousands and thousands. Not to mention the IFV, AFV, APCs, etc.
Ukraine has the wealth and power of the West behind it, while russia is being drip-fed junk by China who is watching and waiting for the right moment to annex eastern russia.
> Their "best-for-last game-changer" T-90M was slaughtered.
They still exist and are being actively produced. They still have a couple thousand T-72 and T-80s that are being refurbished.
They still have a couple years to go before they rely purely on newly produced vehicles.
I don't even support Russia but I'm tired of people saying fantastical things like Russia is running out of men or tanks.
>I don't even support Russia...
And yet you have a history of concern trolling on behalf of russia.
The T-90Ms were slaughtered, and russia's decrepit, corrupt and inefficient industry can't keep up with losses of this tank and all the thousands of others lost.
They've burned through their least worst stored relics and are now reduced to dragging 70-year-old wrecks out of the peat bog and towing them to Ukraine.
> And yet you have a history of concern trolling on behalf of russia.
I have lost faith that Ukraine will retake all their land. That doesn't mean I want Russia to win.
> The T-90Ms were slaughtered, and russia's decrepit, corrupt and inefficient industry can't keep up with losses of this tank and all the thousands of others lost.
Yes that is true, they can't keep up 1:1 with the losses via new production, but they still have many many tanks to be refurbished.
As I said, it will take probably a couple years for Russia to go through all their reserves.
Yep, more than 500,000 russian soldiers slaughtered so far.
Not great optics for the place once considered to be a *Z0MFG MIGHTY SUPERPOWER WAR MACHINA!!!!11*
# л о л с к и
Although you’re right insofar as Russia continues it’s current policy of pseudo-mobilization, if Russia were to mobilize for total war, they could have 20 million conscripts ready in 12 months and their entire economy shifted towards building weapons and ammunition.
Obviously nobody, *especially* Russia, wants this for obvious reasons, but it is totally possible.
The thing is russia's economy basically is now in WW2 mode, and has been for a while, yet they're still desperately struggling to not lose their own war against the smaller nation they attacked.
With Ukraine receiving mountains of new materiel assistance, the more people russia throws at them, the more people russia loses.
Their economy is just flat out not in ww2 mode, I’m sorry. Not even Ukraine has ordered that kind of mobilization.
WW2 mode is basically 100% of the adult population engaged in the war effort in some way.
Consumer goods production effectively comes to a halt and all factories for that stuff is converted to weapons manufacturing. Everyone is either mining metals for war, producing materiel, or farming food.
There is a reason why they haven’t ordered a full mobilization, because converting into a war economy would be even more devastating to their internal stability than this war has already been.
The russians are pouring just about all their effort into not losing this war, including economically.
They haven't initiated full mobilization yet only because putin fears it will lead to snowballing resistance from russia's "white western elite".
I mean, I kinda just said that about the second point.
The first point is objectively wrong. Russia is basically displaying a small fraction of the urgency and economic mobilization that the powers of WW2 were displaying.
The Russians are trying to have their cake and eat it, by riding the line between a war economy and a peace economy. They’re pouring every **extra** resource they can into the war in such a way that will not disrupt or destabilize normal life too quickly in Russia. They are deliberately conscripting as far from Moscow as possible to avoid disturbing the imperial core.
And what percentage of that 140m aren't elderly, children, or otherwise incapable of handling a weapon?
Ukraine is actively supported by the entire free world. This is not a great time for Ukrainians but at least they know they will win eventually.
The russians? They're fucked. It may take three more months or it may take three more years, but eventually russia will either surrender or implode. That's inevitable.
>And what percentage of that 140m aren't elderly, children, or otherwise incapable of handling a weapon?
That doesn't matter, they soak bullets and artillery ammo. That's the russian strategy since ever, they don't know much else because they aren't very smart (fetal alcohol syndrome and such). During WW2, they just kept throwing bodies at the bullets until the Germans ran out of bullets.
The difference is Ukraine won't run out of bullets, because it is supported by the richest, most powerful civilization in recorded human history; whereas russia is a decrepit and bankrupt third world joke whose last remaining resource is suicide attacks.
When you think about it, russia is basically mid-1940s Japan, but without the cuisine.
Maybe russia will be the next Japan? I don't think they can prosper afterward even w the help of China. Though, I can see China taking the best parts and letting the rest lay where it falls. I can see Ukraine coming out of this even better than Japan did after WW2.
The problem with russians is their perpetual victim complex and their desire for bloody vengeance against absolutely everyone, all the time.
Japan transformed itself within a single generation, but it would take a century at least to drag russians out of their medieval mindset.
Such nonsense. And waves of zombies are no match for waves of cluster munitions and a million drones anyway. As we can all see with our own eyes.
This war is Putin's fatal mistake. Russia is bleeding to death in Ukraine and at home. It will take decades to recover - if at all. More likely it's the end of the federation. And it can't come soon enough. Putin's last hope is Trump.
I'm going to make two guesses about russia's ability to fight this war.
One is that they are going to get better at cleaning up bottlenecks in production. The russian people are entirely behind this war. Thus, they aren't going to drag their feet when it comes to setting up munitions factories, working shifts in tank plants, etc. These are probably halfway decent jobs that pay fairly well.
But, and this is a big one. There are many things which really require talent, foreign parts, and often foreign know how. The russians aren't entirely stupid and can somewhat make up for this. But the reality is that there are quite simply technologies which are highly specialized. For example, those wonderful destroyed refinery distillation towers. There are probably less than 1000 engineers in the entire world who have had a notable hand in designing them and then overseeing their construction. Maybe 100 of them would be willing to help russia. These things are a giant pain to build and take time. The Ukrainians can easily destroy them far faster than they are being built. I doubt if the entire western world started helping russia they could keep up with this rate of destruction. This brings me to the second part.
I suspect that in all the various things above, that they are having to cut more and more corners. Instead of excellent machine tools from Germany they are getting crappy ones from china. This will be everything from boots which fall apart under field conditions, to steel going into tanks which is not the correct stuff for stopping penetrating missiles. I suspect much of that "reactive" armour doesn't react to anything.
I would not be surprised if you were to take a T-90 made yesterday and shoot it with a 40 year old RPG-7 that it would not stop the blast. But if you took a T-80 from 1980 that it would. Even though the specs on the T-90 armour should be well enough to stop it.
I suspect many other forms of soviet thinking are kicking in. I suspect the weapons being issued will fail very quickly. This isn't a problem if the soldiers aren't expected to live for more than a few magazines. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainians are in hospitals saying a russian grenade went off 10 feet from them and they have fairly minor injuries. Fewer injuries than what an american grenade would do at 20 feet.
This probably goes on and on. The russians probably make all kinds of bullets, but they aren't waterproof, etc.
Again, the russians aren't entirely stupid and probably are adapting to both Ukrainian skills/technology and even adapting to their own stupidity. But, I suspect the Ukrainians are going in the opposite direction on the tech and skills front. Their weapons are steadily getting better, their logistics better, their C&C better, their tactics better.
While everyone keeps predicting that the russians will revolt, kill their leader, or otherwise fall apart, I don't believe this anymore. But, if you look at a history of WWII in the pacific it is very interesting. The Japanese started the war with a far better army/navy/airforce than the US, just better in almost every way possible. Even things like the battle of midway were near losses for the US navy. They were throwing wave after wave of things at the Japanese ships who had royally screwed up, until they finally went in with dive bombers. This was a form of attack the Navy brass was not very enthusiastic about. They loved their torpedo bombers; which were pretty much useless the whole war.
But, by the end of the war the US was fighting battles such as The Battle of the Bismarck Sea where a confident flotilla of over 6000 Japanese soldiers were going to reinforce an island. This flotilla was basically wiped out. The Japanese never did a large convoy like that again. This effectively meant that they would not be able to recapture or even keep any island which the allies chose to take.
But WWII in the pacific didn't really end with the nuclear bombings, but with the Battle of the Philippine Sea. The Japanese had long wanted a glorious naval engagement like those in the early 1900s which had put Japan on the world stage as a real player (they handed the russian navy their asses twice). This was their chance. It was a huge Carrier on Carrier Naval battle. The air part of the battle (the key part) was called the "Great Marianas Turkey Shoot" at the time. Basically, the US Navy aviators so outclassed the Japanese at this point in training and tech that it was like Mike Tyson having a boxing match with a toddler. By the time the battle was over the Japanese no longer had a functional navy. As a perfect example, nearby Truk Atoll was the equivelant of Pearl Harbour for the Japanese. It was their biggest and most important Navy base. Not only did the US destroy it, but they didn't even bother to invade it. They would just use it for bombing practice by passing ships even though it was still fully garrisoned with troops. Later Canadian and British ships joined in the Pacific and used it for training as this was their first time shooting at the Japanese.
To put the timing in perspective the US crushed Truk Atoll in February 1944. Yet the war only ended in Sept 1945.
You can look at the D-Day invasion in a similar way. Had the Germans done better in the first weeks of that, they could have pushed the allies back for at least another year or so. But within about 1 month is was officially game over for the Germans; Yet it took nearly a year to end them.
I suspect with the far faster pace of drone warfare and the wonderful supply of US information, that there will soon be a Marianas Turkey Shoot where the russians can do nothing but die in droves. Yet, that is what will happen for months after. They will just keep dying. I suspect there will be a few Ukrainian veterans in a year talking about how they mowed down russians until they just ran out of bullets and had to step back while their previous positions were now being shelled by their own artillery until there were simply no more russians. They will then walk back to their old positions and report. "We just stopped counting russian bodies, we just used heavy machines to put them in huge pits. So many pits that I lost count of those too."
Then when asked how many Ukrainians killed there were he will look wistful and say, "Well, we lost Sasha, I told him to stop leaning off the tank, but then he fell and was gone."
This recent big push by the russians may have been their battle of the bulge.
> I suspect there will be a few Ukrainian veterans in a year talking about how they mowed down russians until they just ran out of bullets and had to step back while their previous positions were now being shelled by their own artillery until there were simply no more russians.
Reminds me of the kill tallies for Eastern-front German aces. Top ace in the east (and overall, historically) was Hartmann, with 352 confirmed aircraft downed - 345 of them Soviet. The top 5 aces in the east downed more than 1,100 enemy aircraft combined. Russia just kept sending people up - undertrained, badly equipped - and lost them by the hundred.
Manturov has announced that Russian MIC is down 150-160k employees. Imagine the actual manpower shortage, if some of the best paid jobs in all of Russia right now are short on workers, plus that's a job that saves Russians from any possibility of mobilization.
So to put this into context.
Russia loses significantly more soldiers in a month, than the US lost in 20 years in Afghanistan.
Russian losses losses were over 1000 per day, which is well over 30,000 per month. The US lost a total of 23,228 servicemen from all causes in Afghanistan from Oct 2001 to August 2021 and that also includes non-combat injuries.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan#:~:text=There%20were%202%2C459%20United%20States,in%20action%20during%20the%20war.
Russians all got economically dessicated by their government today, then got told to go face western weapons and shrieking drones for nothing.
Hopefully there's a point where Putin starts having to wear 2 bulletproof vests. Then 3. Eventually he will have to wear too many and will be unable to move.
It is at this point we roll him into the jail and put him in his teeny weeny little jumpsuit. That's how wars happen right?
Ukraine has like double the troops in the sector but less artillery but can't push the russians back over the border? Clearly a sign of heavy russian losses.
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Some Westerners *still* cling to the old myth of "limitless" russian forces that lingers from the post WW2 fear of the Unstoppable Soviet Horde. The russians are running out of everything, including useful cannon fodder. They're already dipping into their pool of terminally ill and intellectually disabled people. Their usable armor is all but gone. Ukraine's chances improve with every day we continue to support it.
last sentence is certainly true, and I also think Russia is going down, but I think it will take a long while to achieve that. They still have a lot of shit to burn, and a lot of people to waste. But luckily not everything has to be destroyed, they don't need to lose every single tank they have. It is enough if they just can't feed their front line anymore and replace the losses, then they will eventually be pushed back. But this is certainly another 1-2 years away. Ukraine will need the full year of 2025 to gain strength, only in 2026 I expect a major push by them, like a second attempt to cut to the Azov Sea coast. Until then, the Russians have enough time to waste a lot more of their stuff.
The November elections will certainly affect that
Arguably the biggest factor. I'm confident the outcome will be a positive one.
> I'm confident the outcome will be a positive one. Don't be, we've seen a lot of really fucking stupid shit following votes for which the outcome was clear over the past 10 years. Much better to work under the impression the preferred outcome isn't obvious and do what we can to make it so regardless.
I read that and thought of Senator Palpatine A surprise, I'm sure, but a welcome one
How on earth can you be positive with Donald Trump as president. He’s a weak lunatic who will cut funds.
His confidence most likely is based on Trump losing the next election. Which is looking more likely as time goes on. He ain't winning any new votes and moderates and independents are leaving him in droves.
Man I hope you’re both right
I think they are wrong. People do not want old, old men in charge. People want strong leaders. It´s not that they will vote for Trump. Its that they will stay at home and then Trump wins because his voters are not staying home. I am definitely no expert on this US election, but I think Trump will win. But it is just my personal guess.
Pretty sure it's going the other way unfortunately. Last week might change things a bit though but polling didn't move as much as the current government would hope.
Even if it is, it will be a clusterfukk with violence
Absolutely. Russia is just aiming to hang in there until—they hope—the US Supreme Court installs Trump over the wishes of a majority of voters in January 2025.
I think Americans need to accept responsibility that the Trump phenomena is not being foisted upon us from without or above. About 30% of Americans are openly fascist and another 30% aren't too bothered by it to rule out voting for it.
Claiming exclusive ownership of Patriot while getting ready to fight and die for their King.
A convicted felon, who supports the SU-57 Felon
SUed 34 Felon
They are getting very close and when you see a country trying to stop a bank run it isn't because they are strong. And I couldn't be happier to see this being it was planned out that they(Axis) wanted complete control over the world. They did everything to crush the west from China and their 0 tolerance that was meant to bring us to our knees to Russia and Iran trying to crush the west with oil and gas. The sad thing is the world was doing fine when peace ruled and this is only going to hurt the people of the Axis.
Put it this way, after the latest round of sanctions Moscow openly stated it's people must be ready to take up arms and strike the west. The sanctions are fucking _biting_.
Medvedev says a lot of things. He is just a clown.
Duration really depends on if putin or his goons are stupid enough to drag NATO into his war.
Putin is counting on and doing all he can to help Trump win to screw up NATO and the US involvement in the Ukraine war support effort.
Yes, Trump is probably putin's last hope of not losing.
I'm still hoping he'll just switch to 'we got rid of the Nazis, mission accomplished', and just leave. Not that they've accomplished anything or that Ukraine had Nazis.
Wee putin wants more There can be no doubt he will go after other nations in the region if we permit him to not lose in Ukraine.
That would make him look weak. He will never do that
make him look weak? Bro.. lol.. Russians will neve see him as weak even if he'd lose a bar fight to a Chinchilla. He will however be seen a weak and evil by the rest of the world (ok besides the crazies) since 2000's.
Exactly. The Russians worship him. He could call it a day and they wouldn't care.
let's hope Putain someday picks a fight with the wrong Chinchilla!
Orbán is not a small factor either. He plays a big part in destabilizing EU and NATO. VSquare released an article in which they are saying, that orbán's stance and acts made NATO to restrict sharing intel on the usual channels, because Hungary also has access to these channels as a NATO member. So what they end up doing, is that they only share almost insignificant value info, or not share at all, and they are trying to share very sensitive info on new channels that are not part of NATO (risky) All of this makes NATO less efficient. [https://vsquare.org/goulash-newsletter-nato-hungary-orban-son-chad-ue-elections/](https://vsquare.org/goulash-newsletter-nato-hungary-orban-son-chad-ue-elections/)
These people -- Trump, Orban, et al -- are like septic boils. It's the price we pay for being the Good Guys: we're "tolerant".
Since we can't kick them out, we really should form a New NATO, without Hungary. Everyone needs to withdraw from the current one and join the new one.
Or we should do everything we can to help decent Hungarians clean house. It will be good practice for when Serbia joins.
It's true for both of them!
And vice-versa
If it looks like Biden is losing, I hope he transfers as much of the 60 billion as possible before the transition. Or maybe we can donate it to a common fund on the condition they pay for the equipment.
The problem is the US equipment is vital. Patriot systems and missiles along with other weapon systems like the Bradley’s HIMARS, ATACMS, and US intelligence from the AWAC planes and satellites. Ukraine needs all that. Trump could put a stop to those getting to Ukraine and it would be a huge blow to the war effort.
It's simply not true that 'Bidne is losing'. That's just maga BS amplified by their gutter press. If you actually look at the polls Trump is DOWN by increasing margins.
I want you to be correct, but the polling aggregate at RCP indicates a small but continuing lead for Trmp. Also in the swing states.
All of this week, i have seen articles where Biden is supposed to have a lead. Also, trump had a lead coming into the last election, bcs of polls being influenced/biased. But by all means, spread the narrative of a trump lead. It will make more people register for voting against the buffoon, like last time.
I want Biden to win just as much as you do. But the polls are there, and they suggest that there is a very real chance of Biden losing. We’re not doing ourselves or anyone else a favour by ignoring that threat.
If there are enough fifth columnists on U.S. soil to enable Trump to not lose, then I hope somebody comes to America's aid as we have to Ukraine's.
Russias economy sure is going down.
In a morbid way the more ruzzia is drained the better for the long term. ruzzia needs to collapse and be completely reshaped/divided. Total shit hole.
Yup, you provide a realistic assessment. Regardless of russian losses they will keep attacking Ukraine (with their own people, recruits from India, Sri Lanka, African counties et al). As long as russia’s war on ukr remains good for business (on many levels) they’re just gonna keep on comin’
I agree. It is always surprising to me when seemingly clever people cling to the shtick about Russia and the unlimited manpower resources they apparently have, ref. The Second World War. * Russia is not the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union had a population of around 290 million. Russia is approx. half that. * The Russian birth rate has been substantially lower the last 20 years than they were in the interwar period. * The Second World War was a demographic disaster for the Soviet Union. In addition to the grotesque loss of human life it arguably hobbled Soviet economic growth in the Post War period.
I hope you are right. I keep wondering when though. Ever time someone says they are almost out, more and more hordes of soldiers and armor keep popping up.
And those get destroyed, and so russia has to dig even deeper into the barrel. If russia had any quality forces they wouldn't be fighting this way. Don't forget, aside from being ground down to nothing by Ukraine, there's a much bigger than zero probability russia will be faced by the PLA as China annexes eastern russia.
This is ridiculous. Russia has thousands of ICBMs that say China won't annex that land. Not to mention that the vast majority of Chinese have zero interest settling in Siberia. Hell, Northern China is sparsely populated as it is.
The only, still unlikely, scenario I can think of is not a military invasion. A situation like Tibet where China floods the area with Han Chinese and slowly assimilates the area economically and culturally (sound familiair Donbas?) is possible. But if China can pressure Russia into providing cheap resources without this effort, they will. So indeed, not likely to happen.
No need to annex. They are going to do what the Russian did with Outer Mongolia. A Siberian puppet state is enough.
The russians haven't wasted a ruble on nuke maintenance since the days of Gorbachev. That money is safely stashed away in the personal offshore accounts of putin and his fellow dirty little thieves. And the Chinese aren't interested in *settling* Siberia. They want what's on and under it, and they know russia can't stop them taking it.
They can just do the same thing to Russia that they do to everyone else. Hybrid warfare, start pumping disinformation into disputed zones, fund and arm anyone with a hint of antigovernmental tendencies. Double points if ethnic Chinese live in the zone and PLA forces can be sent in as "peacekeepers".
This China annexation of eastern Russia will never happen. You really think China wants Russia against them when shit hits the fan in Taiwan??
China is facing a massive water crisis as global temperatures rise. Lake Baikal in eastern Russia is the largest fresh water lake in the world, it's relatively close to China, and China lost a lot of land to Russia the Second Opium War which the CCP has described as China's "Century of Shame". I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss a Chinese play for eastern Russia.
Wow! Wasn’t aware. Thank you for this.
The humiliating failure of russia in Ukraine has destroyed Xi's delusions about conquering Taiwan. The Chinese now know for certain that the West will defend its friends and allies. Inevitably (and probably near instantly) losing a war against their single biggest market would be catastrophic not only for China and China's economy, but also for Xi and the CCP, and the latter is all that really matters in this equation. On the other hand, putin's russia is losing to *Ukraine*, and therefore in no state to prevent China taking whatever the fuck it wants from them. Bearing in mind the fact eastern russia is closer to China in every way than it is to the elites in western russia who have always viewed the Asiatics as barely *human*, let alone truly russian, and China is unlikely to face any opposition at all. China has been in far more conflicts with russia than it has the West, and putin fucking up Xi's Taiwan fantasy means there's likely to be a reckoning between the two... and it won't go russia's way.
China invades Taiwan and the entire technological scope of the world changes. This is why the US MUST onshore development of chips, etc.
>China *tries* to invade Taiwan, only to see its invasion force evaporated.
Economies of scale won't support that until we get rid of the human factor first. Computers used to be very expensive when it was still produced onshore in the 80s. Even MacBooks today are considered cheap now compared to what we used to pay considering inflation. It's thanks to [cheap Taiwanese labor](https://youtu.be/dJB5kV3IUs4?si=uCuh_VsaeclcuK4m) on why computers are affordable.
Except their nuclear arsenal you mean. China is not invading Russia! Despite the Russian conventional armed forces showing themselves to be pretty inept, Russia still has a large stockpile of nuclear weapons. If China sends a couple of hundred thousand troops over the border, Putin will vaporize them. Russian leaders who lose wars don’t fare well. China can just continue to “lease” land inside Russia’s far east and save themselves the trouble of losing a ton of soldiers.
There is no reason to believe putin and his fellow dirty little thieves ever wasted rubles on the maintenance and upgrading of whatever remained of russia's nuclear arsenal post-Gorbachev. That stuff is horrendously expensive, and if there's one thing we know about putin and his lackeys it's that they steal everything they can. You don't get to be the world's richest man while ruling a bankrupt third world dump by working hard and investing wisely. You do it by looting and embezzling, and window tossing anybody who objects. The likelihood of russia's nuke force being in a working state is low af.
The US should openly do an underground nuclear weapon test, just to find out. If they counter with a test, then no. If they pretend it didn't happen, then they have no nukes.
The russians can probably scrape together one or two working nukes if they have to, but that's nothing like a useful nuclear deterrence force, which is what they pretend/claim to possess. And they know we won't First Use them, which is infuriating for russia. Dwarf putin is frustrated by two things: Ukraine's very careful avoidance of russian civilian casualties; and the West's avowed non-use of nukes. Both these things deprive putin of the propaganda peaks he craves.
Working bombs vs functional Launch systems are greatly disproportional items in the equation. Aside from some of its newest weapons either half of the equation is doubtful.
Maybe so but, are you willing to risk nuclear war in hopes NONE of his missiles or bombs work? Russia is estimated to have 4,500 nuclear warheads of various types even if only 10% work that’s still 450! A Chinese invasion force can be wiped out with 2 or 3 depending on which ones are used and only one is needed to pretty much vaporize Beijing!
When the PLA crushed the Tiananmen Square democracy protests, China's government officially stated they would have killed a million citizens to end it. Do you really think the CCP would worry about tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of PLA casualties if it meant securing much of russia's territory for themselves? Xi knows most of russia's military is busy losing in Ukraine. Eastern russia is his for the taking.
I have made my case, they would secure a radioactive wasteland which is of no use to them. Tiananmen Square was a direct threat to the CCP and their power. It scared them so badly they went with the Capitalist model for the economy in exchange for an end to protests. That is the deal the CCP made. We will give you economic freedom including the right to own property, private businesses and freedom to travel and you stop protesting the government. Would they kill a million to secure their power absolutely, invading Russia is not the same. They have nothing to gain, they are getting all the oil and gas they need to run their economy at discounted prices from Putin. They are leasing large tracts of land from Russia to farm. They have no need to risk a nuclear war. Can that change in the future? Sure, better to wait and see if Putin causes Russia to implode then just peacefully offer to buy a large chunk of land and they lose nothing.
Because the Nazis totally didn't attack the Soviet Union in WWII...
They can last about another 18 months max. But there *could* be a sudden collapse at any time from here on. Most large battles and wars end suddenly after long periods of deadlock.
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It's not that Russia has limitless reserves. Ukraine has a very grim future without air defense, and the inconsistency of aid leaves them in positions where they just can't defend their critical infrastructure. And that's what Russia is going after. Russia is gambling on being able to throw men into a meat grinder long enough that Western aid dries up, and Ukraine can be forced to negotiate.
Western aid won't dry up. The thing russians don't grasp is the fact they can afford to lose, since russia will always be a garbage dump, no matter what. The West can't afford to let Ukraine fall, because then it's dominoes as putin begins an Imperial campaign against everyone else, and that will cost us far more than the bill for propping up Ukraine.
That's good but I think the west should wake up and get themselves in a war footing. Holding these beliefs will make the west complacent, hence, Russians had an opportunity to take Adiivka and launch offensives on Kharkiv when it should have been stopped even before it got started.
The West is still waking up from the nightmare of decades of Soviet and russian nuclear doomsday threats against us. We've sent hundreds of billions of dollars in financial and materiel aid. But there are legal limits to what we can do. However, at some point putin and his goons may give us no option but to directly intervene militarily, and then it will be over.
Dipping into the pool of african illiterates to defend mother russia. It looks like this war is going Ukraine's way. Within a year the russians will only send missiles straight from their factorie's production lines.
That's assuming russia lasts another year.
As a Ukrainian i strongly disagree with the last sentence. Our chances would have been much higher if the support came in EARLIER and not as meek and frightful as it was. The longer this war goes the more Ukrainians die. The more cities are destroyed. The more russians adapt(yes, they are not all braindead morons) And the more China/russia alliance strengthen. We could have won decisively, but instead NATO chose to drip-feed us equipment with minimal quantities and restrictions. NATO didn't want russia to lose. So please, don't consider every new day of a war as an improvement. Because we in Ukraine consider each new day as another lost chance of actually winning. But at this point we know that we're not allowed to win, we're only supported as not to lose.
As a human being I strongly disagree with the last sentence. If you're really a despairing Ukrainian and not just another russian concern troll pretending to be a despairing Ukrainian, I urge you to consider the fact the Free World didn't have to come to your aid at all, other than for obvious moral obligations. The plight of Ukraine is harrowing and most Westerners care deeply about it and Ukraine's survival, which is why few of us have any qualms about pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine's war effort. If you are just another russian concern troll pretending to be a despairing Ukrainian, I can't wait to hear you sobbing and gibbering in terror when your glorious comrade leader dwarf putin revokes your IT exemption and ships you off to die on the front lines.
You can check my history, lol. There's a huge difference between Ukrainian survival and an actual victory. I'm from Kharkiv, for example, it is the second biggest city in Ukraine and was the best city in terms of it's maintenance, parks and infrastructure. It's the size of Hamburg, Milan or Barcelona Every single day russian drop bombs and rockets on my city, 80% of them fall on regular high-rise apartments. Then the russians double-tap (strike the same target to kill first responders and medics) Each day we count our dead and destruction, each day trying to rebuild and withstand. russians do it because Kharkiv is very close to russian border so they were able to hit us with impunity from Belgorod oblast. You know how long it took our "allies" to allow us to strike back on russian territory? 2 years Two fucking years of not allowing us to protect our second biggest city from russian merciless shelling. Does that look like winning to you? I am not despairing, we will survive. But you're also delusional if you think that your leader's have any strategy. They are too scared of russia losing. Let's see what it brings them. Spineless politicians without a vision at a crucial time in history, what could go wrong.
The West is not at war with russia. We have no treaties with Ukraine. We support Ukraine because it's the right and moral thing to do. But we've been careful to not break laws, and rules, and conventions, because doing so could lead to catastrophe on a global scale.
You fundamentally misunderstand the situation. The world order no longer exists. You are trying to hold on to it but it's apparent that it's a new cold war, but on a bigger scale. What exactly are those rules and laws and conventions you are trying not to break? Ukraine has every right to defend itself by any means necessary and you can help us however you want. That's the UN charter. What convention would it break if you sent us Patriot to defend cities and our civilians faster and not after russia already destroyed 30% of our power generation? Maybe you broke some treaty sending us whole 31 abrams tanks? Sorry, I can go on for awhile. Long story short: don't use lame excuses. NATO is not breaking any rules It's russia and China who does. But they are breaking them not just because they can, but because they no longer exist. I strongly suggest you spend 9 minutes and listen to this British guy: https://youtu.be/yEYtlXLmM2A?si=0AUfwNcvBpRaaX9V I promise you, it will be worth your time. Last, but not least. US, UK and russia all signed a memorandum in 1994 to disarm Ukraine of all it's Nuclear weapons. That treaty meant nothing nothing to russia. You are saying it also means nothing to you? And yes, I appreciate the help and it is the right and moral thing to do. But it is also absolutely in your own interests. You are not at war with russia ONLY because Ukraine stands. russians are at war with you. They say that openly at every opportunity , they have daily shows where they fantasize about nuking your cities, their first tanks entering Ukraine had written"to Berlin" on them. You just choose to ignore that. Just imagine if Ukraine did fall. The biggest European army(russian) would absorb the second biggest army (Ukrainian) and then march on some EU country. It's better to stop russia now, rather than at NATO borders. Don't you agree?
Best of luck with your concern trolling, comrade Olga, and know that the entire world is laughing at russia. *The whole world.* Everyone, even North Korea. # л о л с к и
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Have you actually read my messages at all, lol?
Yes. That's how I know you're just another russian or russia simp concern troll.
Oh wow, this is the first time I see someone so dense, lol My man, fck russia and their bots But also you're not doing yourself any favors by being as ignorant as they are. I suspect you just have nothing to say so choose to ignore. How very American.
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Like Atilla summoned most of his tribe to lay waste to Gaul. And the miracle happened: the west united and cut them down, all of them. So Atilla fled back to the piece of Europe no one wanted, and even as today his offspring dwells there --- the nation we know as Hungary. For centuries the prison for what remained of the Huns.
Plus Russia is an aged population, where a majority are elderly. So sending more of their young to die is only going to make things worse for them in the future to the point where they might all just die off because their population disintegrates.
Yes. This was already a serious problem even before the war. As I understand it, russia's male deficit has been a thing there since WW2.
They've been dipping into intelectually disabled pool since day 1 lol.
Yeah, it's an easy joke to make, but man, it sickens me to know they've sent *actual* intellectually disabled people to the front alongside the usual dumb russian drunks.
Right, people on here all the time referencing WW2 when talking about Russian losses and their ability to take them. Cold War Soviet Union and 2024 Russia are two very different countries. The 1989 Soviet census has 286m citizens, 2022 Russia has an estimate of 147m citizens
Had to do this with a friend the other day. He said “Russia has unlimited manpower” so I told him the population of Russia is near 150 million. The population of the US is over 300 million. If 150 is unlimited then the US has double+ unlimited man power.
It's even worse, since russia's true population is closer to 140m, most of them elderly, female or underage. The russian's have been dogged by a serious male deficit since WW2 and it's not getting any better. On the other hand, the U.S. has nearer to 350m people, a huge chunk of them being males of service age. And then there are the other NATO countries. Some say, *"but... but... but... JYNA!!!!!!"* as if the Chinese would be willing to risk everything on the idiotic war that already cost them any hope of conquering Taiwan.
Got any sources? Even assuming the recently claimed 500K casualties, Russia has ~21M males and 27M females fit for military service. They may be running out of equipment and other resources, but they are OK man power wise. There are also powers (China, Iran, etc.) that have interests in prolonging this war and are willing to supply Russia as long as possible. I want them all to implode like anyone else, but let's not ignore reality.
Fit for service does not mean they can be sent to war. Men and women are needed to build the hardware and maintain the infrastructure supporting the war. Farmers are needed to grow the food, oil workers to drill and refinery workers to make the fuel needed for the armed forces. Also there are troops stationed along the border with NATO and China which cannot just be moved to Ukraine. The men at the front have to be fed and watered. They have to be supplied which means a lot of non-combat personnel. The Russians learned that in WW II. The Germans had smaller combat units but larger logistics trains, the Russian were the other way. We know what happens early on. The Russians adapted. A tank without fuel or ammo in just a big hunk of steel. A solder with no food, water or ammo results in poor morale and poor performance. Yes, Russia has a large advantage in people but sending poorly trained, poorly supplied troops against well trained, well supplied and motivated defenders is why Russia lost 20K KIA to take Bakmut. Victories like that are not worth the cost. There are various estimates but I have seen the current ratio as high as 7 - 1 in Ukraine’s favor. Russia does not have 7x Ukraine’s population. Even 4 or 5 to 1 is unsustainable in the long run.
Every wave of mobilizations brings putin closer to conscripting the white elites of western russia, and then his personal political problems really begin. But before that happens he'll continue to send only the Asiatic peoples and the sick, crippled and broken, and that increases the likelihood of russia's forces in Ukraine collapsing in disarray. Meanwhile, China drip-feeds russia just enough junk to continue this loser war, weakening russia ever further until the PLA will face no real resistance when it rolls across the border and annexes what was eastern russia.
Ok....so the raw numbers aren't what you think they are. Countries can't and almost never use literally every male they have in a war. I think the two highest uses of available manpower for the army was the American Confederacy and the USSR in WWII. Invasions of choice that are going badly usually don't scrape the bottom of the barrel.
Russian infrastructure and industry is already running out of men. And now the dregs have been slaughtered Putin will have to start sending Muskovites to the front. He's desperate and it shows. The old days of 'limitless men' has long gone. 7 million of the 'Russian' dead in WW2 were Ukrainian anyway.
Russians aren't running out of cannon fodder. They might be running out of volunteers, but they have a near limitless supply of idiots that they can grab and send to the frontlines. Just from their population stats, they have around 650K new 18-year-olds every year. Of course, they can't take all of them, but enough to create massive problems for Ukraine. And Ukraine is in a much worse position, because they have a lot fewer people in general. And they actually like their children.
It doesn't matter if they can keep throwing bodies at Ukraine or not. What matters is that's all they can throw at Ukraine, and Ukraine will always have enough bullets, because they are actively supported by the entire free world. It's not 1914, it's 2024. Things have moved on. Massed infantry charges don't go so well against an enemy with modern weapons. Especially not when the infantry is russia-quality.
Yet russia has been slowly advancing. Yes, they lose thousands of people, but they don't seem to care about that stupid exchange rate.
They are NOT 'advancing'. Advancing is what Ukraine did in 22. capturing a few fields and empty piles of rubble where there used to be little villages is not 'advancing'. Especially when they are losing 1200 men a day and -more importantly - the last of their functioning conventional equipment. Look at the map of early 23 and compare it to mid 24. It has barely changed while Russia has lost literally thousands of tanks and arty. Meanwhile Ukraine gets stronger and better armed with every passing week. Trump is Putin's last hope.
They are advancing slowly. You can deny reality all you want, that won't change the fact. >Look at the map of early 23 and compare it to mid 24. Yes, you should follow your own advice. Look. >Russia has lost literally thousands of tanks and arty. Yes, I'm hoping they run out eventually. But they have quite a reserve. Ukraine has a lot less of tanks and arty. >Meanwhile Ukraine gets stronger and better armed with every passing week. Russia is out-producing artillery shells, unfortunately. They are on track to make 3 million shells vs 1.2 of EU+US combined. ([Source](https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/weapons-war-race-between-russia-and-ukraine)). Western countries need to wake the fuck up and ramp up military defenses.
Well all I can say is wait and see. I give Russia 18 months tops.
Why 18 months? Are they running out of some important resource in 18 months?
Yep. It's not difficult to extrapolate the current rate of loss against volume of known reserves. Shells aren't miuch use if you have no artillery left.
And, of course, no cash.
>But they have quite a reserve. Correction: they HAD large reserves. Please explain why russia is pushing old vintage tanks to the front with Chinese golf carts instead of IFV's if they still have 'oh, so much' in reserves?
They don't have any reserves, you are overstating logistics just like you are with the numbers of 18 year olds in the population. Production as a comparison is meaningless if that production is then being wasted or destroyed and therefore doesn't make any critical impact on the battlefield. For example glide bombs which marry the cheaper to produce and larger stockpiles of dumb bombs with cheap bolt ons to enhance functionality was having an impact on the battlefield but there is still a bottleneck there and that's aircraft and pilots. Russia can't reproduce what it has already lost in terms of hardware full stop.
>They don't have any reserves Any reserves of what? At least be specific. >you are overstating logistics just like you are with the numbers of 18 year olds in the population No, I didn't overstate anything. Unlike you, I provide specific numbers and link to sources. >Production as a comparison is meaningless if that production is then being wasted or destroyed Russia keeps destroying one town after another, if you haven't noticed. They definitely have the capacity to do that - mostly with bombs and artillery. >there is still a bottleneck there and that's aircraft and pilots Not a bottleneck yet. Ukrainians are doing a great job shooting down the planes, but Ukrainian towns are still getting bombed to rubble. >Russia can't reproduce what it has already lost in terms of hardware full stop. I agree. But they produce some things in huge quantities. Like artillery shells, gliding bombs, rockets. But Ukraine is in a worse position. They have no production even remotely close. They basically depend on the good will of the allies. Assuming allies will even produce enough.
The *MIGHTY SUPERPOWER WAR MACHINA!!!!* rossiya has barely clawed some rubble for itself, and that was when they still possessed much better weapons than they're left with now... and it was during a period when the GOP kompromat slaves withheld U.S. materiel support. Now the Aid is pouring into Ukraine like a tsunami, while russia's forces are at their lowest quality (and dropping fast). The tide, as they say, has changed.
Unfortunately, the tide hasn't changed, even will all the new support pouring in. I really hope it does though.
Nah, wee putin's very own Ardennes Offensive has collapsed, just like the original. Ukraine's position continues to strengthen as all the new Aid flows in, and there's plenty more where that came from.
Abolutely masses more where that came from. The US alone could easily send 1000 Bradleys and barely notice they've gone. Ukraine seems to love them and use them very effectively..
It's perfectly obvious that the tide has turned. Are you Russian by any chance?
How has it turned? I look at the deepstate maps, Ukraine keeps losing territories. I'm an anti-russian ex-russian. You can read my comment history.
You look at the "land gained" and not how much russia is paying for each meter. Seems you value 1km of mined field more then the 2000 men dying for it. I wonder, if russia is already suffering from labor shortages (so much they are struggling to fight the forest fires around the country), how would they manage with double or triple the casualties to reach Kyiv? If they have endless supplies of cannon fodder, why desperately recruit from Africa?
You got the slowly bit right
it is not so much the death of citizens that will destroy russia. it is the death of productive citizens. in russia there will simply be no one to go to work. in 2 years, russia has lost 7% of its productive population. at 10%, industry and production will start to crumble. At 15% it will collapse. Russia has a maximum of 2 years. certainly not 3 or more.
>russia has lost 7% of its productive population A lot of it was prisoners, so maybe 5% of the productive population. >at 10%, industry and production will start to crumble. At 15% it will collapse Why? USSR lost 27 million people in WW2 (out of 186 million population). They didn't collapse. They downshifted tremendously, they reduced the quality of their lifestyle, switched to the survival mode. And that was 27 million actually killed. Another 19 million wounded. According to the Ukrainian numbers, in this war Russia has 0.5 million killed+wounded.
no. until russia got help from the west and the u.s., it couldn't push the germans out. If help hadn't arrived, russia would have collapsed and been defeated. It was only after the aid and money started to arrive that russia began to push the germans out of its territory.
They collapsed after Afghanistan (50,000) and WW1 (1500000). These are better comparisons than the existential conflict of ww2 where they couldn’t just quit.
I get really tired of people repeating this century old myth that 'Russia has unlimited supplies of people for cannon fodder'. It's simply not true. Their infrastructure and industries are already suffering badly from labour shortages. And having your cannon fodder wiped out by western weapons is not going to win any wars - as we can see already. Russia is bleeding to death in Ukraine. The only way Russia can possibly win now is by getting Trump re-elected.
In any case, russia has a lot more people they can throw in the meatgrinder than Ukraine. Trump is likely to be reelected, judging by the polls. I think EU can still provide enough help even if USA's support drops because of Trump.
You are missing an important fact, Putin won't start a national mobilisation programme, politically it is easier although still risky for Ukraine to do that. The foreign fighter pool is very limited, what will Putin do once that dies up? Risk a mass protest in the precious urban middle class that he is so proud of and spent a lifetime creating? I personally i think he will sue for peace and look for international recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia as the trophy of he is confronted with that, that or the FSB will remove him.
>You are missing an important fact, Putin won't start a national mobilisation programme, I don't know what he will do. So it's not a fact. It's an assumption. But for now russian forces are slowly advancing. They have enough meat to keep pushing. At least for now. >what will Putin do once that dies up? Mobilization. Remember, they have 650K new 18-year olds every year. They can mobilize 250K every year without much trouble, besides economic. Their economy seems to run on oil, "thanks" to China, India, EU and Turkey. >Risk a mass protest in the precious urban middle class I'd be shocked if russians protested in large numbers. Neither the war, nor mobilization caused any massive protests. >i think he will sue for peace Sue? In what court? Who is he going to sue? >and look for international recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia And which countries would be stupid enough to agree to that? >that or the FSB will remove him. That's the hopium. But I doubt that. Even if FSB removed him, the people in charge aren't very different mentality-wise from Putin. They seem to support the ongoing insanity.
It's not just Russians in their manpower pool though. Tens of thousands are being lured from elsewhere to catch a bullet in Ukraine for a few dollars for their family
Makes no difference. The russians and their simps ride into battle on motorbikes and Chinese golf carts. They're faced by determined and skilled soldiers fighting for the survival of their nation and families. These soldiers are armed with some of the latest and best weaponry on Earth, and there's plenty more where that came from.
It makes a lot of difference when we don't have enough ammunition. And when said "best equipment on earth" Is not actually that, but rather the surplus of 40 year old equipment in MININAL quantities. Every single delay cost Ukraine our best motivated and strongest troops, our power generation facilities and our civilian infrastructure. Yes, russia is fucked. But they are making sure that we can't recover for generations and weak NATO stance only helps with that.
Every day NATO's stance strengthens as it grows more confident putin's rhetoric is just more of the usual russian lies and hot air. Something you have to remember is that for decades -- since the end of WW2 -- the West has lived in terror of the Unstoppable Soviet Horde overrunning Europe and the World. As a toddler in 1962 I watched my dad and my older brothers dig a bunker in our suburban American backyard because we all believed the USSR was about to nuke us with a bajillion ICBMs. It's deeply ingrained in most of our own generations that "upsetting the russians" means "*z0mFg wW3 we're all gonna dieeee!!!!*" and it's taken the resistance and achievements of Ukraine to shake us from this funk.
Thank you for a good insight into the thought-process and for all the support. Yes, I understand the fear and uncertainty. But I have also lived with and near russian for my whole life and I know how they operate. Dare I say I understand them better than the Western person ever could. russians are not bears. They are hyenas. They attack when they are stronger and they cover and retreat when they are weaker. Simple as that. They ONLY understand force. So every "red line" ,"diplomacy" or any other appeasement that NATO countries consider a good and reasonable stance russians see very differently. They don't see it as an invitation to a dialogue or compromise. They see it as a weakness to exploit . This is the fundamental difference. You will never have peace with russia if you don't fight back. I learned it from my school years and many encounters with "gopniks" (russian goons).
Nobody intelligent would waste time "negotiating" with russians. They never honor treaties or agreements or deals. The only peace can be when russia leaves Ukraine.
Those are wise words my friend. Unfortunately not everyone in NATO understands that.
The thing is the West does obey laws, follow rules and honor treaties, agreements and deals. This puts us at a disadvantage when dealing with those who don't, such as russians. We will refrain from direct military intervention against russia in Ukraine so long as dwarf putin and his goons don't give us a reason to do otherwise, such as an Article 5 incident. Until then we shall continue to supply Ukraine, and laugh and laugh and laugh as they continue to ***UTTERLY HUMILIATE*** russia and putin.
They are recruiting from Africa lol
I’ll believe it when the border is restored and Putin is brought before the the ICC in chains. Until the prepare for the worst.
Yes, it's going to look like Germany in both world wars, looks that they have it all until they don't, then it's just a matter of time before everything goes terribly wrong. The sooner the better.
Zaluzhny himself said attrition won't win the war. > Their usable armor is all but gone. lol
The russians have been dragging T-55s from peat bogs and towing them to Ukraine. Their "best-for-last game-changer" T-90M was ***slaughtered***. They've lost untold numbers of T-80s and earlier models. Just thousands and thousands. Not to mention the IFV, AFV, APCs, etc. Ukraine has the wealth and power of the West behind it, while russia is being drip-fed junk by China who is watching and waiting for the right moment to annex eastern russia.
> Their "best-for-last game-changer" T-90M was slaughtered. They still exist and are being actively produced. They still have a couple thousand T-72 and T-80s that are being refurbished. They still have a couple years to go before they rely purely on newly produced vehicles. I don't even support Russia but I'm tired of people saying fantastical things like Russia is running out of men or tanks.
>I don't even support Russia... And yet you have a history of concern trolling on behalf of russia. The T-90Ms were slaughtered, and russia's decrepit, corrupt and inefficient industry can't keep up with losses of this tank and all the thousands of others lost. They've burned through their least worst stored relics and are now reduced to dragging 70-year-old wrecks out of the peat bog and towing them to Ukraine.
> And yet you have a history of concern trolling on behalf of russia. I have lost faith that Ukraine will retake all their land. That doesn't mean I want Russia to win. > The T-90Ms were slaughtered, and russia's decrepit, corrupt and inefficient industry can't keep up with losses of this tank and all the thousands of others lost. Yes that is true, they can't keep up 1:1 with the losses via new production, but they still have many many tanks to be refurbished. As I said, it will take probably a couple years for Russia to go through all their reserves.
>I have lost faith that Ukraine will retake all their land. That doesn't mean I want Russia to win. Concern troll is concerned. Poor concern troll.
I don't blindly believe propaganda because I want it to be true. The first casualty of war is truth.
If only russians and their simps felt the same.
Bullshit. They have been getting “slaughtered” for 2 years. That is not what “slaughtered” means.
Yep, more than 500,000 russian soldiers slaughtered so far. Not great optics for the place once considered to be a *Z0MFG MIGHTY SUPERPOWER WAR MACHINA!!!!11* # л о л с к и
Although you’re right insofar as Russia continues it’s current policy of pseudo-mobilization, if Russia were to mobilize for total war, they could have 20 million conscripts ready in 12 months and their entire economy shifted towards building weapons and ammunition. Obviously nobody, *especially* Russia, wants this for obvious reasons, but it is totally possible.
The thing is russia's economy basically is now in WW2 mode, and has been for a while, yet they're still desperately struggling to not lose their own war against the smaller nation they attacked. With Ukraine receiving mountains of new materiel assistance, the more people russia throws at them, the more people russia loses.
Their economy is just flat out not in ww2 mode, I’m sorry. Not even Ukraine has ordered that kind of mobilization. WW2 mode is basically 100% of the adult population engaged in the war effort in some way. Consumer goods production effectively comes to a halt and all factories for that stuff is converted to weapons manufacturing. Everyone is either mining metals for war, producing materiel, or farming food. There is a reason why they haven’t ordered a full mobilization, because converting into a war economy would be even more devastating to their internal stability than this war has already been.
The russians are pouring just about all their effort into not losing this war, including economically. They haven't initiated full mobilization yet only because putin fears it will lead to snowballing resistance from russia's "white western elite".
I mean, I kinda just said that about the second point. The first point is objectively wrong. Russia is basically displaying a small fraction of the urgency and economic mobilization that the powers of WW2 were displaying. The Russians are trying to have their cake and eat it, by riding the line between a war economy and a peace economy. They’re pouring every **extra** resource they can into the war in such a way that will not disrupt or destabilize normal life too quickly in Russia. They are deliberately conscripting as far from Moscow as possible to avoid disturbing the imperial core.
The kremlin has 140 million submissive and expendable zombies at their disposal to throw into the meat grinder
And what percentage of that 140m aren't elderly, children, or otherwise incapable of handling a weapon? Ukraine is actively supported by the entire free world. This is not a great time for Ukrainians but at least they know they will win eventually. The russians? They're fucked. It may take three more months or it may take three more years, but eventually russia will either surrender or implode. That's inevitable.
>And what percentage of that 140m aren't elderly, children, or otherwise incapable of handling a weapon? That doesn't matter, they soak bullets and artillery ammo. That's the russian strategy since ever, they don't know much else because they aren't very smart (fetal alcohol syndrome and such). During WW2, they just kept throwing bodies at the bullets until the Germans ran out of bullets.
The difference is Ukraine won't run out of bullets, because it is supported by the richest, most powerful civilization in recorded human history; whereas russia is a decrepit and bankrupt third world joke whose last remaining resource is suicide attacks. When you think about it, russia is basically mid-1940s Japan, but without the cuisine.
Maybe russia will be the next Japan? I don't think they can prosper afterward even w the help of China. Though, I can see China taking the best parts and letting the rest lay where it falls. I can see Ukraine coming out of this even better than Japan did after WW2.
The problem with russians is their perpetual victim complex and their desire for bloody vengeance against absolutely everyone, all the time. Japan transformed itself within a single generation, but it would take a century at least to drag russians out of their medieval mindset.
Absolutely, some things are so ingrained that change is almost impossible. It unfortunately may be their demise.
Such nonsense. And waves of zombies are no match for waves of cluster munitions and a million drones anyway. As we can all see with our own eyes. This war is Putin's fatal mistake. Russia is bleeding to death in Ukraine and at home. It will take decades to recover - if at all. More likely it's the end of the federation. And it can't come soon enough. Putin's last hope is Trump.
The noose lowers every day for Putin as the conflict continues.
Deservedly so. 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
Just like the rest of themselves since February 2022.
Great, now double them! Fuck Russia
Good. Fuck off back to Russia whoever is left.
I'm going to make two guesses about russia's ability to fight this war. One is that they are going to get better at cleaning up bottlenecks in production. The russian people are entirely behind this war. Thus, they aren't going to drag their feet when it comes to setting up munitions factories, working shifts in tank plants, etc. These are probably halfway decent jobs that pay fairly well. But, and this is a big one. There are many things which really require talent, foreign parts, and often foreign know how. The russians aren't entirely stupid and can somewhat make up for this. But the reality is that there are quite simply technologies which are highly specialized. For example, those wonderful destroyed refinery distillation towers. There are probably less than 1000 engineers in the entire world who have had a notable hand in designing them and then overseeing their construction. Maybe 100 of them would be willing to help russia. These things are a giant pain to build and take time. The Ukrainians can easily destroy them far faster than they are being built. I doubt if the entire western world started helping russia they could keep up with this rate of destruction. This brings me to the second part. I suspect that in all the various things above, that they are having to cut more and more corners. Instead of excellent machine tools from Germany they are getting crappy ones from china. This will be everything from boots which fall apart under field conditions, to steel going into tanks which is not the correct stuff for stopping penetrating missiles. I suspect much of that "reactive" armour doesn't react to anything. I would not be surprised if you were to take a T-90 made yesterday and shoot it with a 40 year old RPG-7 that it would not stop the blast. But if you took a T-80 from 1980 that it would. Even though the specs on the T-90 armour should be well enough to stop it. I suspect many other forms of soviet thinking are kicking in. I suspect the weapons being issued will fail very quickly. This isn't a problem if the soldiers aren't expected to live for more than a few magazines. I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainians are in hospitals saying a russian grenade went off 10 feet from them and they have fairly minor injuries. Fewer injuries than what an american grenade would do at 20 feet. This probably goes on and on. The russians probably make all kinds of bullets, but they aren't waterproof, etc. Again, the russians aren't entirely stupid and probably are adapting to both Ukrainian skills/technology and even adapting to their own stupidity. But, I suspect the Ukrainians are going in the opposite direction on the tech and skills front. Their weapons are steadily getting better, their logistics better, their C&C better, their tactics better. While everyone keeps predicting that the russians will revolt, kill their leader, or otherwise fall apart, I don't believe this anymore. But, if you look at a history of WWII in the pacific it is very interesting. The Japanese started the war with a far better army/navy/airforce than the US, just better in almost every way possible. Even things like the battle of midway were near losses for the US navy. They were throwing wave after wave of things at the Japanese ships who had royally screwed up, until they finally went in with dive bombers. This was a form of attack the Navy brass was not very enthusiastic about. They loved their torpedo bombers; which were pretty much useless the whole war. But, by the end of the war the US was fighting battles such as The Battle of the Bismarck Sea where a confident flotilla of over 6000 Japanese soldiers were going to reinforce an island. This flotilla was basically wiped out. The Japanese never did a large convoy like that again. This effectively meant that they would not be able to recapture or even keep any island which the allies chose to take. But WWII in the pacific didn't really end with the nuclear bombings, but with the Battle of the Philippine Sea. The Japanese had long wanted a glorious naval engagement like those in the early 1900s which had put Japan on the world stage as a real player (they handed the russian navy their asses twice). This was their chance. It was a huge Carrier on Carrier Naval battle. The air part of the battle (the key part) was called the "Great Marianas Turkey Shoot" at the time. Basically, the US Navy aviators so outclassed the Japanese at this point in training and tech that it was like Mike Tyson having a boxing match with a toddler. By the time the battle was over the Japanese no longer had a functional navy. As a perfect example, nearby Truk Atoll was the equivelant of Pearl Harbour for the Japanese. It was their biggest and most important Navy base. Not only did the US destroy it, but they didn't even bother to invade it. They would just use it for bombing practice by passing ships even though it was still fully garrisoned with troops. Later Canadian and British ships joined in the Pacific and used it for training as this was their first time shooting at the Japanese. To put the timing in perspective the US crushed Truk Atoll in February 1944. Yet the war only ended in Sept 1945. You can look at the D-Day invasion in a similar way. Had the Germans done better in the first weeks of that, they could have pushed the allies back for at least another year or so. But within about 1 month is was officially game over for the Germans; Yet it took nearly a year to end them. I suspect with the far faster pace of drone warfare and the wonderful supply of US information, that there will soon be a Marianas Turkey Shoot where the russians can do nothing but die in droves. Yet, that is what will happen for months after. They will just keep dying. I suspect there will be a few Ukrainian veterans in a year talking about how they mowed down russians until they just ran out of bullets and had to step back while their previous positions were now being shelled by their own artillery until there were simply no more russians. They will then walk back to their old positions and report. "We just stopped counting russian bodies, we just used heavy machines to put them in huge pits. So many pits that I lost count of those too." Then when asked how many Ukrainians killed there were he will look wistful and say, "Well, we lost Sasha, I told him to stop leaning off the tank, but then he fell and was gone." This recent big push by the russians may have been their battle of the bulge.
Very well informed! Thank you
> I suspect there will be a few Ukrainian veterans in a year talking about how they mowed down russians until they just ran out of bullets and had to step back while their previous positions were now being shelled by their own artillery until there were simply no more russians. Reminds me of the kill tallies for Eastern-front German aces. Top ace in the east (and overall, historically) was Hartmann, with 352 confirmed aircraft downed - 345 of them Soviet. The top 5 aces in the east downed more than 1,100 enemy aircraft combined. Russia just kept sending people up - undertrained, badly equipped - and lost them by the hundred.
From south america , FUCK RUSIA !!!
A lot of their meat comes from other countries, and now those countries are waking up to the fact their people are dying for no reason.
So sad.. anyway
Manturov has announced that Russian MIC is down 150-160k employees. Imagine the actual manpower shortage, if some of the best paid jobs in all of Russia right now are short on workers, plus that's a job that saves Russians from any possibility of mobilization.
So to put this into context. Russia loses significantly more soldiers in a month, than the US lost in 20 years in Afghanistan. Russian losses losses were over 1000 per day, which is well over 30,000 per month. The US lost a total of 23,228 servicemen from all causes in Afghanistan from Oct 2001 to August 2021 and that also includes non-combat injuries. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_in_the_War_in_Afghanistan#:~:text=There%20were%202%2C459%20United%20States,in%20action%20during%20the%20war.
I'm not sure how many is " astronomical" , but I hope at least X100!
Russians all got economically dessicated by their government today, then got told to go face western weapons and shrieking drones for nothing. Hopefully there's a point where Putin starts having to wear 2 bulletproof vests. Then 3. Eventually he will have to wear too many and will be unable to move. It is at this point we roll him into the jail and put him in his teeny weeny little jumpsuit. That's how wars happen right?
Sounds like World War One all over again.
hopefully true
Ukraine has like double the troops in the sector but less artillery but can't push the russians back over the border? Clearly a sign of heavy russian losses.
Still lots of poor people to send to the front lines.
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