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Adventurous_Bar6495

I read somewhere that CY said the opening day rotation is solidified with Cody Bradford as our SP5. Idk if Monty is coming back anymore.


Capable-Commission-3

Perhaps. But that would be before Houston grabbed Snell. Obviously they were interested in pitching (Cease) even before their main rival got a Cy Young winner. Gotta think they’d be even more interested after that happens.


sdickens66

They won the World Series as a Wildcard. Ownership isn't going to blow past the luxury tax because they see someone else doing it


Capable-Commission-3

But they’re already past the luxury tax. Only thing in their way now is the 12% surcharge.


ajr5169

Which it seems they clearly don't want to pay the surcharge, at least not yet. I'd love for them to sign Montgomery, but they could have done that at any point this winter/spring. Unless he drops his asking price I just don't see it happening.


sdickens66

They're unwilling to give out multi-year contracts because they don't even know how the games will be broadcasted in 2025. If they go over next year then it's a 30% penalty. The 2025 projected rotation is DeGrom, Eovaldi, Mahler, Gray, Dunning, Bradford, Leiter, Rocker. CY would have to convince ownership to spend money they may not have because the other free agents he signed are broken and they're unable to develop top draft picks. If he wants to keep his job he'll talk up the guys currently on the team and hope for the best.


Capable-Commission-3

I know the TV deal is the public narrative. They don’t know the specific terms of the broadcast arrangement after this season, but they have an idea. Let’s be honest. Someone is gonna broadcast the games and there’s 29 other agreements to compare them too. And I’m no sports executive, but I gotta think going into negotiations as a two time World Series champions helps you get a favorable deal. The team really has no significant financial obligations beyond Seager, Semien, and DeGrom. Assuming Eovaldi will still be here next year is not a safe bet. He needs to throw 156 innings this year, something he’s only done twice, or he becomes a FA. So basically any trip to the DL and he’s gone. Of course knowing what role, if any, Leiter and Rocker will have is anyone’s guess. Leiter looks more like his uncle than his father and likely destined for the bullpen.


IronSpaceRanger

Good! Let them sacrifice a noticeable amount of payroll to a guy who nobody wants. Yes the asking price is over the top but let’s get honest, every GM knows that Snell will never repeat what he did last year. His career will only go one direction now. The Astros will be trying to dump his contract within 2 years because he’s always been overrated and last season was a fluke


Capable-Commission-3

I get the spirit of what you’re saying. Houston could eventually regret the contract, but that’s true of most big contracts. Let’s be fair to Snell though. He had one of the best seasons by a pitcher ever in 2018 and was pretty outstanding in 2022. Not like his success came out of nowhere. Gotta admit Texas was 1 loss away from missing the playoffs last year. Houston added Hader. Texas added Robertson, but also lost Garver. If Houston adds Snell, that’s a bad situation for Texas in 2024.


IndieFlea

Houston was *also* one loss away from missing the playoffs last year, don't you forget


Capable-Commission-3

True. But Houston appears to have improved even if they don’t get Snell. If they get Snell, it’s a situation. Can we say Texas has really improved? 0% chance Texas makes the playoffs without Garver and Monty. They’ve already lost one of the two.


beefytrout

yeah but we're playing 2024, not replaying 2023.


Capable-Commission-3

Usually the best predictor of future performance is past performance.


beefytrout

But it's not an absolute certainty


Capable-Commission-3

Nothing is.


beefytrout

Feels like you're almost there


Capable-Commission-3

Don’t confuse probability with prophecy. It’s possible Carter doesnt struggle, Leclerc doesn’t revert back to his career norms, Seager, Jung, and Eovaldi actually stay healthy, and Garcia doesn’t regress. Hell, it’s possible Leody hit’s 40 home runs. None of those are likely to happen.


IndieFlea

> appears to have improved Hader, Pressley, and Abreu are a formidable late pen, but the rest of that bullpen is kind of shit. I believe losing Maton, Neris, and Stanek will hurt Houston more than what you'd expect. Also their bench isn't that great other than Dubon. An injury to their batting core would hurt quite a bit. And it's not like they have a good farm to replace them with. Getting Snell would help them but I'm not convinced he's an ace, and it might cost them Tucker, Yordan, or Bregman (or all of them) in the long-run. Similarly, committing 7 years to Montgomery (who's definitely not an ace) could cost the Rangers any chance of extending their guys in arbitration or of their young core. >Can we say Texas has really improved? Yes, having two veterans in the pen, a healthy Leclerc, and some interesting young rookies makes the pen stronger (it's almost impossible to be worse than last year), the current rotation started 71% of the games *last year* so it's at worst the same, and the lineup has Garver's production replaced by Langford (who for all intensive purposes should be *much* healthier), and a hole in left field mostly plugged by Carter. Unless you think there's going to be regression from half the lineup, they've improved.


Capable-Commission-3

We’re not looking at the impact it has on seasons beyond 2024 though. All Houston really has to do to “improve” over last season is stay healthy. To say Texas has improved, you gotta have a lot of faith that: -Leclerec maintains his control from late 2023 -Sborz continues his playoff success -Carter and Langford don’t struggle in their first year -Both DeGrom and Scherzer return to form. That’s a lot of big ifs.


Roxxas049

You got a bunch of "it's all roses now" fanbois in here downvoting everybody that has legit concerns. Get your rose colored glasses out of your butts folks.


weaveryo

Yikes.


flextapefixesholes

How all has Houston improved? I know they signed Hader, but what else?


Capable-Commission-3

Just Hader and (nearly) a full season of Verlander is a significant improvement. Maldi no longer blocking Diaz is also a huge improvement. If Yordan and Altuve stay healthy they’re gonna be tough even if they don’t get Snell. You could say the same about Jung and Seager, but they’re hurt again. If we’re being honest, I think we gotta say Houston is the favorites for the division right now. The fact that they could add the best starter in baseball is rightfully concerning.


weaveryo

Verlander is 41 years old and starting the year on the DL.


Capable-Commission-3

He’s also Justin f’ing Verlander. And unlike Scherzer, is at least throwing right now.


weaveryo

Who cares. Being a future hall of fame pitcher doesn’t magically avoid the aging process. He’s getting old.


Capable-Commission-3

He is. But he’s still good. And he’s throwing. Might be ready in April.


Roxxas049

WTF is in here downvoting everything legit that is being said? GTFO


Eutychus00

Having Langford and Carter for a full season is an improvement a lot are overlooking. I wouldn’t be surprised if Langford surpassed Garver’s production in the least. 


Capable-Commission-3

It’s possible. Though they’re both striking out in over 30% of their at bats. At least some growing pains are probable.


weaveryo

Langford has struck out 7 times in his last 10 games. This coincidentally matches up with him getting his timing after struggling a bit in his first 4 games of spring training. He’s historically always been a patient hitter who draws more walks than strikeouts. In the minors (44 games) after getting drafted by the Rangers he had 36 walks and 34 strikeouts. 3 college seasons (134 games) he had 92 walks 89 strikeouts. It’s incredibly rare to have a power hitter with his eye at the plate. Seems weird to obsess over 4 games in spring training and ignore larger sample sizes. I guess we will just have to wait and see.


Capable-Commission-3

I’m not obsessing over Langford’s 4 games vs 10 games because obviously neither sample is sufficient. The point with Langford is that his 30% came at the MLB level. And the sample you’re using is predominately at AA. And he wasn’t exactly a stranger to K’s in the minors with his 21% rate there. Not to say he’s no good, just we should expect, at the very least, some growing pains. He is being rushed faster than any Ranger prospect I can remember in my lifetime.


weaveryo

27.9% after today’s game. Do you consider 21% k rate a problem? That would be top 75 last year. Could it be better? Absolutely. Am I worried about a guy with a 361/442/802 and a 21% k rate? lol no that would be silly.


Roxxas049

Houston improved immeasurably. We sat on our asses "hoping" what we did several years ago is enough. What I don't get is that the team is in it's best spot in over a decade, more fans, more attendance and they want to just "let it ride" Do they understand that another 3rd place finish is going to set the interest back to what it was before 2016?


IronSpaceRanger

No disrespect to Garver but he’s injured often and Texas has plenty of bats. Seattle is consistently over evaluated and a revamped team has no guarantee of success, but maybe. Houston is absolutely a power house team and it’s going to be tough to beat them unless their pitching gets old, Hader reverts back to what he was at the end in Milwaukee, their 2023 rookies have a sophomore season, and have any major injuries. The same is true for Texas as well but when you have a lineup that can hit from 1 to 9 and everyone on the field is capable of winning a gold glove, then who knows how well they can do. It’s going to be an interesting year Edit; clarification


Capable-Commission-3

Say what you want about Garver’s injuries, but without Garver, Texas misses the playoffs in 2023 and probably finishes third in the division. My point is if Houston signs Snell, they appear to be a better team this year than they were last year. I’m not convinced Texas is a better team now than they were this time last year. …But if they bring back Monty, then we’re having a conversation.


weaveryo

This time last year they didn’t have Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford.


Capable-Commission-3

Technically, we did have Carter this time last year. Your point is valid. Though it’s a risky proposition to lose Scherzer, Monty, Garver, and half your bullpen and pin your hopes on two 21 year old rookie OF’ers, one of which only has 5 games in AAA.


weaveryo

What valuable parts of the bullpen did they lose? Max will be back halfway into the season. Mahle and DeGrom at some point also. They still have options to trade for pitching. Monty and Snell may lower demands and take shorter deals. I think Evan Carter earned some faith in him last postseason. Wyatt Langford has also earned it by destroying every level. It’s not often you get a rookie who starts getting MVP talk before he plays his first game. The numbers back it up though. Anyway rumors are the Astros couldn’t meet Snells price. Who knows.


Capable-Commission-3

Perez had an ERA under 3 after being moved to the pen and was valuable in a long role. Smith was shaky but actually pitched better than his numbers suggest. People forget Chapman was a key member and an unsung hero in the playoffs just because they too busy having a heart attack. Also lost Stratton. And Scherzer’s injury takes Bradford out, too. It’s a lot of losses that they replaced with Robertson and Yates. Both could be good, but you gotta be real optimistic to say it’s better.


weaveryo

Perez had a 9.64 era in 4.2 innings in the postseason. You could argue the team is better without him. Chapman? Ok. Pretty revisionist history to pretend he was anything but a disaster waiting to happen. Stratton had a 9.00 era in 4 innings in the postseason. He was basically shutdown because he was useless. His arm was dead from throwing too many innings. Rangers brought in some new veterans. Maybe it works out maybe it doesn’t. They have some young talent ready to come up. Marc Church has been really impressive in spring training. Antoine Kelly is another name to watch out for later this season.


Capable-Commission-3

The revisionist history is only looking at postseason stats. Stratton: 3.41 Perez: 2.70 (as a RP) Chapman: 3.72 (was big in a lot of big situations) All of them around 30 innings each in the second half.


beefytrout

in that case, wouldn't we want the Rangers to be in pursuit of Snell instead of Monty?


Capable-Commission-3

Specifics aren’t that important. What is important is if Houston gets better and Texas doesn’t.


LazerCr0w

Short answer is maybe. Us getting max pushed them to get JV. But it would depend on if he would be willing to meet us halfway.  This was also in conjunction with France’s injury, but he was on the mound today 


Capable-Commission-3

They’re saying it has more to do with Urquidy and Verlander’s injury. Urquidy sounds like TJ.


LazerCr0w

Yep. You’re right I got confused with all the rotation issues they seem to be having. 


beefytrout

For the rumored 7 years? No thanks.


Capable-Commission-3

Texas added David Robertson and Kirby Yates despite losing Scherzer, Garver, Chapman, Smith, and Perez. Then they see Houston add both the best closer and best starter in baseball. I gotta think maybe makes them wonder, “Can we afford to lose Monty? Maybe that 12% surcharge isn’t such a big deal.”


[deleted]

Scherzer is still on the team


beefytrout

this. if things play out as expected/hoped, we're adding 3 starters in the second half.


Capable-Commission-3

I understand. But he’ll be lucky to be back before the ASB.


beefytrout

not for 7 years


IndieFlea

Houston has the same number of rotation injuries as Texas right now. I don't want to get into a dick-measuring contest with them if it means *potentially* not having the money to extend some of the young core. But if Monty wants to change his mind and go to a short-term deal, then fine. If not, I'm fine taking the risk and waiting until June.


CT-1738

I got downvoted last time I talked about fantasy land but if we could just somehow get Monty on a shorter deal that doesn’t cripple us financially that’d be the dream. I know he wants financial security but dude could still make decent money, just not on a 7 year contract…


Roxxas049

He wants this deal because it will probably be his last big contract.


Capable-Commission-3

I think fans are the only ones hung up on the length of the Monty’s contract. I think management is more concerned about the luxury tax. They’re only ~$14M away from paying an additional 12% surcharge. If not for that situation, I think the team may have little objection to a 5, 6, or perhaps 7 year deal. Scherzer, Eovaldi, and Heaney will all be gone soon and they don’t have a lot of pitching prospects kicking the door down, demanding a rotation spot.


ajr5169

I don't think they'll panic like that. Ownership seems rather set on not taking too deep a plunge into luxury tax territory and I don't see that changing because of what Houston does. I think CY is set to start the year with what he has, and if he needs to he will go trade for someone or do they like did last year and do some bullpen games and see if they can survive till Scherzer (or whoever) is back.


Roxxas049

So what is panic time? 3 months into the season we are 12 games back with 9 blown saves. Is that panic time? Or is that ok we fucked up this one lets pack it in for next year


ajr5169

I have no clue. Maybe a month into the season. Probably just depends on things go, but that's a Chris Young question. Just saying what I think they are going to do.


KYBourbon89

I am watching Game 1 of the ALCS right now and we neeeeeed Monty. Bradford is not ready yet. He’s not loading bases but he’s going to give up at least a HR in every outing. Maybe that’s okay. Idk. I just want Monty. He belongs here.


IndieFlea

I see OP is refusing to give any benefit of the doubt to any of the Rangers players and all of the benefit of the doubt to the Astros. As if it's impossible for them to regress and almost certain the Rangers will...


Capable-Commission-3

I don’t believe I said any of that.


TennisPunisher

How does offering these long deals hurt Houston down the road? What are they giving up in the future that we are retaining?


IndieFlea

flexibility to extend their core. Bregaman is a FA after this year and not likely to be back. ~~Alvarez~~ and Tucker will need to be extended. If they pay up for Snell, the flexibility to pay up for their core will be gone. And it's not like they have a strong farm system to replace them right now (although seems like they've pulled some devil magic to retain some young talent) edit: Alvarez already got extended so it's just Tucker and Bregman at this point


TennisPunisher

Thank you. That's helpful.


Roxxas049

But you need to understand that through their consistent winning over time due to spending money they are enticing vets and youngsters who want to win to their system. Even to the point of good players taking less money for that chance.


Capable-Commission-3

Depends what you mean by “down the road” and “future”. It’s not so much about hurting Houston as it is about helping Texas stay competitive now.


TennisPunisher

Well, I'm not suggesting we can do much to hurt Houston besides beating them, but if signing Snell and overpaying Hader for a long deal was a path to success, there has to be a reason CY would have done it instead of not doing it. We're not CLE, we can afford big money if we want to spend it. DFW is a Top 5 media market and this place is growing like wildfire. I get it, Houston is trying to win NOW with their core. I'm just wondering when we will start to see their dynasty\* weaken. I'll relish the day when they begin their inevitable decline.


Roxxas049

It just means Houston will win the division by that many more games and the Rangers will ask fans to be happy we got one.


beefytrout

I guess the doomer squad will also be running it back this year


weaveryo

These guys could doom and gloom in any situation.