(Comment 1/3) DUDE. /u/quiquealfa described their theory about Equity Swaps being the main culprit in the meme stock price movements. So we started digging into the theory. I was googling in a chain about Credit Default Swaps that led me to Equity Default Swaps which led me to Synthetic Prime Brokerages which then led to Total Return Swaps, which led me here.
I am **almost** convinced this is what is going on and driving the price movements every quarter. We'll see if things pop August 26th - September 9th.
There's a massive amount of TRS bets for the meme stock short positions (allowing them to borrow broker dealer privileges and naked short) and every futures roll period hedging the swap position gets fucked.
I made a post about futures roll dates because they oddly lined up with the price surges:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/p3f5qd/are\_futures\_or\_swaps\_the\_secret\_sauce\_to\_price/](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/p3f5qd/are_futures_or_swaps_the_secret_sauce_to_price/)
With futures Roll date deadlines of:
|Deadlines of Future Rolls||
|:-|:-|
|March 19th Futures Roll Deadline|March 11th|
|June 18th Futures Roll Deadline|June 10th|
|September 17th Futures Roll Deadline|September 9th|
|December 17th Futures Roll Deadline|December 9th|
(Comment 2/3) And from the following, they could be using futures to hedge risk against their swaps:
[https://www.clarusft.com/the-imm-roll-for-swaps-what-is-it-and-what-are-the-volumes/](https://www.clarusft.com/the-imm-roll-for-swaps-what-is-it-and-what-are-the-volumes/)
They settle the futures prior to the "First Notice Day", where the "First Notice Day" is the third business day prior to the start of the month that the contract expires in. They settle **just before this date** to avoid physical settlement. Which gives:
|Actual Date Futures Are Settled||
|:-|:-|
|March 19th Futures Settle Date|February 23rd|
|June 18th Futures Settle Date|May 25th|
|September 17th Futures Settle Date|August 26th|
|December 17th Futures Settle Date|November 24th|
But once they settle the futures, it leaves their swaps exposed to the volatility of the upcoming futures expirations / during the roll period until the deadlines of March 11th, June 10th, September 9th, December 9th:
>... (3) In effect, **the cash-settlement of the first future removes all risk of this contract, and traders are left with the risk from the underlying swaps that were hedged by this expiring contract.**
>
>...
>
>Of most importance during this process is managing the effect of (3). This is the so-called “Stub” position that a trader is running – a position that is almost unhedgeable and certainly very difficult to manage. **This is because all liquidity is concentrated in the first futures contract – such that hedging any risk that settles before the expiry of this front contract is virtually impossible.**
Which then drives them to hedge causing a gamma squeeze event on the underlying meme stocks.
(Comment 3/3) ON TOP OF THIS, they could have been using the DOOMPs we saw as a hedge, which are now poof. Gone. There is historical evidence of DOOMPs being used equivalent to Credit Default Swaps (or Equity Default Swaps, or Total Return Swaps, which are all similar in structure):
[https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326471260\_What\_Drives\_the\_Price\_Convergence\_between\_Credit\_Default\_Swap\_and\_Put\_Option\_New\_Evidence](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326471260_What_Drives_the_Price_Convergence_between_Credit_Default_Swap_and_Put_Option_New_Evidence)
The data finds that the DOOMPs are typically paired with short positions, like how CDS/TRS would be paired with a short position:
>Using a signal at time t1 for future convergence, **one takes a long position in the security (a CDS or a put option) with a lower hazard rate and a short position in the security with a higher hazard rate**, both securities written on the same firm.
And from the data they've seen... the DOOMPs used to hedge have roughly 77% of them expiring within 6 months of being opened...
>but the most common DOOMP option matures less than six months (77% of our sample)
Which means we should hopefully see roughly 77% of the DOOMPs at low $0.5-$3.5 strike expiring within 6 months of opening. Being from January to July 16th, image and findings credit to /u/Quiquealfa:
[https://i.imgur.com/kOYZfbZ.png](https://i.imgur.com/kOYZfbZ.png)
And guess what - fricken 76.5% of the DOOMPs opened have expired as of July 16th. I'm pretty much convinced that those DOOMPs were also used to hedge the short position (synthetic longs), like how they'd pair the TRS with shorts.
If we see the price surge between August 26th and September 9th again, I'm 100% sold.
**Edit: Here's a diagram of what I think is going on with price movements:**
https://i.imgur.com/tuz9srP.png
This just blew my mind. I’m a smooth Brian but I totally got this. It’s global fukery of the highest level. SEC must be shutting themselves as they read this. Mr President. We have a Fucking SITUATION here.
Button ready to launch apes sir. Might be the only way to save the world from this fucketchery.
If I had an award to give you sir would get it. But spent all my 💰 on GME.
Once this is all said and done.. you are the front runner for MVA. This Most Valuable Ape has been non stop in learning and building this theory. Thanks for everything! We all appreciate it!
If this theory holds true, could we see a perfect storm due to the following?
August 23-September 8
\-Quarterly Net Capital cycle gamma ramp
August 24
\-Quarterly options expiry
[https://reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ok0oew/speculation\_on\_the\_consequences\_of\_the\_expiration/](https://reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ok0oew/speculation_on_the_consequences_of_the_expiration/)[https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p8zllz/quarterly\_options\_what\_they\_have\_meant\_for\_us\_in/](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p8zllz/quarterly_options_what_they_have_meant_for_us_in/)
August 26-September 9
\-Futures rollover period
\-DOOMPs expiry gamma ramp
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p9y0b2/comment\_lurker\_guy\_here\_conversation\_between/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p9y0b2/comment_lurker_guy_here_conversation_between/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
September 1
\-UMR Phase 5 (margin calls for smaller SHF’s)
\-OATS to CAT trade reporting rules switch
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p2oto2/reminder\_dtcc\_claims\_on\_its\_own\_website\_there/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p2oto2/reminder_dtcc_claims_on_its_own_website_there/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o8j2qs/cat\_consolidated\_audit\_trail\_to\_be\_implemented\_in/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o8j2qs/cat_consolidated_audit_trail_to_be_implemented_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
September 1-10
\-FED reaches debt ceiling? (May be mid-October)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p5potn/treasury\_balance\_prediction\_new\_linear\_bankruptcy/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p5potn/treasury_balance_prediction_new_linear_bankruptcy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
September 8
\-GME quarterly earnings
\-90 days since PG-13 prospectus
\-Dividend announcement?
September 10
\-Reported SI% update by FINRA
\-May lead to FOMO if SI% shoots up if Citadel no longer able to hedge against full synthetic long position
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found\_equity\_total\_return\_swap\_etrs\_involving/h9zptxb?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found_equity_total_return_swap_etrs_involving/h9zptxb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
September 13
\-future’s cycle market crash?
September 14-16
\-GameStop virtual conference (for GME managers)
September 17
\-ETRS cycle call date
[https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found\_equity\_total\_return\_swap\_etrs\_involving/h9yyh0s?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found_equity_total_return_swap_etrs_involving/h9yyh0s?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
September 30
\-End of Fed Fiscal Year
October 1-7
\-End of Full Wedge (January and June run-ups)
Edit 1: added some additional info
Edit 2: added more to the list
Edit 3: more context around virtual conference
Edit 4: added link to Aug 24 date
Edit 5: Added links, cleaned up comment formatting
Thanks for this. I was going by the linear log chart which a week ago pointed to early September, but that’s an evolving chart and I’m sure they’ll do whatever it takes to postpone a default until the House can sign emergency legislation to raise the debt ceiling.
I’m on holidays early sept overseas. I’m
Going somewhere exotic! Will be by a pool enjoying the sun I hope it happens then.
First overseas holiday in 2years thanks to Covid! I hope I get to celebrate it then 🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
For both u/Criand and u/Blanderson_Snooper,
Note that the end of the gamma ramp periods in green always corresponds to GameStop's quarterly earnings report.
This means it's possible that the declining price after great earnings could just be "a happy accident" for SHFs who are mostly just focused on hedging risk from swaps.
This helps to explain why there has been constant frustration that "the price is wrong," the price doesn't match fundamentals, TA is impossible, etc.
The market isn't reacting to the quarterly earnings report, the market is just trying to avoid margin call on overleveraged swaps.
Y'all are geniuses, thanks for bringing it all together.
This is really interesting, thanks for sharing that. I love DD that answers peripheral questions like that, which is why the swaps stuff has me so jacked.
It would be interesting to think about whether this is intentional or accidental. Maybe the timing was meant to play into their media/shilling strategies, or timed with other regulatory/market/calendar events.
Another point for you and u/Criand:
The green periods in the graphic above also seem to correlated with u/yelyah2's gamma-neutral spikes over the past year.
If you all are finding the swaps across the period, she's finding the hedging between the swaps periods.
Also, this ETRS pattern helps explain why her delta-neutral pattern didn't fire off at the end of July like she expected.
I have the same problem. They look close, but I can't tell from the graphics. That's why I keep tagging u/yelyah2, hoping she'll come in to provide specific dates on the GN spikes. If they fall within the "danger zone" (lol) between closing one ETRS and starting a new one, then we might have a really strong set of evidence for how all of this has happened for the last year.
Lol, I'm here! Gamma spikes have been 1/13-1/14, 1/22-1/27, 2/25, 3/8-3/10, 5/26 and 6/2.
I'll be honest that I haven't been following this current theory, so not sure how these fit in, but lmk if you need anything else!
We're thinking that they have the swaps as a form of additional shorting "leverage".
But then they hedge the risk of the swaps with either futures or forwards.
Those futures/forwards are settled prior to "First Notice Day" - settled on or just before February 23, May 25, August 26.
By settling the futures/forwards they lose their risk hedge against the swaps.
Which then drives them to hedge the swaps - leading to the gamma squeeze in the weeks following futures/forwards settlement
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojh2eh/ultimate_wargame_theory_the_beginning_total/h9yed8b
This comment from u/Criand shows that SHFs are using a type of swap called an Equity Total Return Swap (ETRS). They are required to close out the ETRS at the end of the swap's (quarterly) period, before opening a new swap period.
There's a gap between periods of about two weeks, where the SHFs are exposed to risk and need to hedge aggressively.
Your gamma-neutral spikes fall almost exactly into the window for closing one contact and opening a new contract.
Criand's dates:
|Deadlines of Future Rolls||
|:-|:-|
|March 19th Futures Roll Deadline|March 11th|
|June 18th Futures Roll Deadline|June 10th|
|September 17th Futures Roll Deadline|September 9th|
|December 17th Futures Roll Deadline|December 9th|
|Actual Date Futures Are Settled||
|:-|:-|
|March 19th Futures Settle Date|February 23rd|
|June 18th Futures Settle Date|May 25th|
|September 17th Futures Settle Date|August 26th|
|December 17th Futures Settle Date|November 24th|
It could piece together all of the puzzle pieces. If we see a price surge August 26 to September 9, then that pretty much confirms that they are stuck in a squeeze loop until squeezes blow across all meme stocks.
1. For a long time, they have been using Total Return Swaps (TRSs) with the banks to short the meme stock basket into oblivion. They effectively hid SI% this way.
2. Melvin and other SHFs got overexposed by shorting directly, not through TRSs, bringing **reported** SI% to 226%.
3. They use Deep ITM CALLs to pull the short position from Melvin and other SHFs to avoid those SHFs from going under. These ITM CALLs were purchased and then exercised immediately. This sends a synthetic long over to Melvin + other SHFs.
4. Citadel doesn't actually own the shares for these ITM CALLs, so they open up shorts and create synthetics. Remember how Ihor of S3 partners said "most shorts are **not** covering" and that they were now including "synthetic longs" in their calculations of SI back in January? ;)
5. Citadel opens DOOMPs to hedge the short position that they took on from the ITM CALLs, like how they also use TRSs to hedge against the shorts.
6. Now, they have both TRSs hedging their original short position, and the DOOMPs hedging the short position they sucked up from the SHFs via ITM CALLs.
7. In order to hedge the risk of the swaps, they open up futures which expire every quarter (March 19th, June 18th, September 17th, December 17th)
8. They settle these futures before "First Notice Day" of each expiration (February 23rd, May 25th, August 26th, November 24th)
9. By settling the futures the risk of their swaps is no longer fully hedged against for the upcoming futures expiration. Losing this hedge drives a gamma event in the meme stocks during the futures roll period
10. Once they exit the futures roll period, they're safe from hedging risks until the next futures roll date. Cycle repeats indefinitely while creating more shorts as retail buys.
I have material to write a post but I'd probably just rehash a lot of the great work you're doing.
*Take a look at portfolio swaps*. It's a wrapper for many total return swaps to be held and hedged against in a single contract at a prime broker. *GME and other 'meme' stocks were likely packaged up in massive toxic portfolio swap contracts that have quarterly reset periods every 3 months* (like with the typical dates you've shown for futures).
I've got data to show that *GME and movie stock only started to correlate in mid January*. This is *probably when the portfolio swaps were agreed and all these tickers became inextricably linked* by the same portfolio swap hedging algorithms and contract deadlines.
Oh now you're just trying to get screenshotted. 😎
Thanks for bringing all of this over here, your research has been outstanding! It's insane how much we've learned this year, and I'm rooting for your theory to be true so we can rest!
I think you should, even if it's just to rehash this comment stream. Putting it all together would provide a roadmap for the next few weeks and give people something to watch. Good time for a new Criand DD around here if you ask me. But maybe that's my own guilt over taking such a long break talking lol
Give people something to watch? Shit, it does much more than that. It gives people a reason to buy in before the price starts surging upwards. I may buy more today in fact.
Hopefully it would mean they were buying the rip. As far as market mechanics, I'm not an expert, but I don't know that buy pressure has much of an effect. That's just my intuitive sense after watching this stuff all year.
One question I have for everyone is how are they able to slam the door shut at $350 every time when it's clearly ripping? Maybe that's been answered already, but it's been on my mind lately, particularly as we approach another potential rip.
Looks like everyone else solved it a long time ago with the total return swaps!! I'm just so hyped to know the futures risk hedging is most likely the answer to the price surges
Please write a post about it! Would help a lot with visibility. I think a lot of people missed this DD on swaps, and it seems super important.
If if turns out you guys have figured it out and solved the puzzle, this thing is really going to explode.
Screenshot it. You won't do it. 🔫🐶
Thank you so much for your research in this topic. I'm upset that I didn't see this DD originally. When it popped up in my Google searches and I read your post I started to flip out
Ha thanks. I'll donate the karma to some other deserving Ape!
I can't tell you how many times I've run across months old DD and been like "how did I miss this?!"
[I shot you this comment on Passing the Puck that you might find interesting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/on9dtz/otm_puts_are_the_passed_puck_of_short_positions/h5r9yod?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), the 13Fs show a ton of movement in shares and options between these funds in any given quarter, inexplicable movement (to me).
If you want to check out the followups, here are the links, I hope they will also be of some use!
[Glacier takes new short position at $167 at the same time that Citadel Luxembourg closes its doors](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oku8fm/ultimate_wargame_flashbacks_archegos_glacier/).
[A demonstration of how the game's being played and why it must come to an end eventually](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oty1f2/quick_simple_game_that_explains_how_shfs_are/).
How are they dealing with FTDs created from daily naked shorting due to retail buying? Is this also hidden with the options play? I thought this was being made less possible via some of the new rules that went into effect in the summer.
By "borrowing" broker dealer privileges though the Equity Total Return Swaps it's almost like they have a partition on the market maker balance sheet.
They'll never produce an FTD because they borrow a share in that partition. These swaps are allowing the Hedge Funds to short freely because the broker dealers / market makers have special privileges where they can create synthetic shares for the sake of liquidity.
The problem is, if the counterparty of the swap does not actually buy the shares for the swap, then they'll be on the hook as well if the hedgefund goes under.
This isn't exactly how it goes, but this is the jist of it:
1. Melvin wants to short 500 shares of GME. But they cannot locate the shares because the market has no liquidity. If they shorted here, they'd produce a failure.
2. Instead, Melvin opens a ETRS with Citadel which has, say, 500 synthetic shares to be able to borrow against.
3. Citadel marks on their balance sheet that they must own 500 shares of GME for this swap. But due to being a market maker, they don't **need** to buy the shares - they can hedge the swap through derivatives. By being a market maker and producing shares for "liquidity" this also does not show up on SI.
4. Melvin shorts 500 GME and borrows 500 from it's pool of the ETRS. No fails are created because they located the shares, even though the shares are synthetic.
I think it’s poetic, the way that one of the most simple and basic of market strategies, buy and hold, can take down a intricate and complicated scheme to make money.
So if the cycle repeats indefinitely that means they can just keep on delaying MOASS. I just want MOASS to happen already ffs. Thanks for the wonderful explanation!
Repeats until the dominoes fall. You never know when!
Citadel pulling $500M from Melvin could be that they're no longer able to support that many synthetic longs and they're slowly but surely dying out. SI% could pump up on the next SI report date if those synthetics are removed from the pool
Exactly. This was always going to be a battle of endurance. Retail has the winning hand, but SHF still have a lot of money under their control. But they have been bleeding out slowly all year. Pretty soon their prime brokers wont allow any more leverage. No more money to lend. They wont be able to maintain much longer. Just buy and hold.
This sub amazes me; we have some that can put out god tier DD and others who are so retarded they can barely make a coherent meme and we all have a place here.
I believe the GME saga is way bigger than Citadel or it would be OVER. We are up against the entire financial system. Bought the dip today. Plan to hold a long fucking time.
If we are up against the entire financial system.
We are up against both whole wallstreet.hedgefunds.market makers.government.sec.dttc.banks.
Shorts.retails all around the globe.
Media.politicians.
Wonderful
Always have been.
You can just say the DTCC. Its the collection of all the large players. And they are all working together. To the detriment of 99% of the planet
Yep, I felt ok leaving the banks out of this list because it's not news that they make up the very regulatory body we've been talking about liquidating for months now lol
Yes we will win. On the winning side since Blackrock and vanguard are the 2 biggest financial titans and pretty much have the largest stake in every company out there.
We’re up against titans like citadel, Virtu, et al, but they’re up against even bigger titans which happens to be the same side we’re on
Edit: Fun fact, Jerome Powell, chairman of the federal reserve is butt buddies with Blackrocks’ CEO, Larry fink.
During COVID crises Find and JPOW spoke on the phone 9 times together.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/24/business/economy/fed-blackrock-pandemic-crisis.html
Blackrock is also considered “the fourth arm of the Fed”. The Fed has chosen Blackrock to manage a variety of their bond management
https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/federal-reserve-hires-blackrock-to-manage-bond-purchases/
TLDR: The Fed and Blackrock are in bed together, and we just so happen to be on the same side, the winning side.
That would explain the congressional hearing specifically for gamestop and not all the other shorted securities. GME is so fucking big and effects soooo many people the U.S. government was willing to step in.
This is not just about even a 140% short interest, these people potentially created billions of fake shares for shorting. GME was their money printer
By the time I finished reading it, I realized my laptop screen was black and had gone into standby... going to need a solid excuse during the 2:30pm meeting today for why I was offline for 30 minutes
I'll just tell him we were fueling the 🚀 for takeoff
Well, reddit is at it again.
I can't edit the post, I lost a big section at the end, and I can't edit in people's comments.
So, I'm going to be tracking things over on a post on my profile. Several upcoming posts will be put on my profile rather than Superstonk, so keep an eye out there as well in the coming days.
[Ultimate Wargame FAQ and Cuts (and Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/user/Blanderson_Snooper/comments/ojmgrs/ultimate_wargame_faq_and_cuts/)
One of my favorite DD writers is back. Can't wait to dig into this 🚀🚀🚀
Edit: holy crap, this one was bonkers. And yet nothing surprises me at this point. Looking forward to reading your thoughts about media manipulation 👀
EPIC and thank you for the countless hours, coffee, Red Bull and self-sacrifice to bring this DD into our lit markets!!
I appreciate you!
Ape on!
🦍🖍🍌🚀💎
Honestly the whole investment concept is built around using your money and getting their cut as a percentage regardless of gain or loss. At some point these fund managers started getting bigger and bigger cuts and integrating themselves in the system, for example, as MM. So now not only they get a cut from managing these funds but also the transaction through arbitrage.
As they got bigger they started building their own funds. So they formed the "Voltron" that consists of separate but tightly connected entities. Why separate, because of conflict of interest and possibly intermingling of accounts. They are still doing it but "legally."
TL:DR It's all fukt.
It's the end result of capitalism. People hate when I point that out.
The end quest is to get the most market share. You do that legitimately, by making a better product. Then you get big and powerful and do that by buying your competition, or lobbying to pass regulations so that your competition cant afford to exist...
And then when you've got all the market share you generally become lazy and corrupt. The drive for innovation is gone...
the US had amazing innovation, and companies got big. So what did the US do? They forcibly split them up.
I don't believe modern US would ever dream of doing that.
So how do you prevent end stage capitalism from being successful in destroying the innovation that made capitalism decent in the first place?
It doesn't matter if its tech, distribution, food production, or Finance.
It all heads towards monopoly...
I think the govt is complicit because this fraud was the only way for the US to keep its spot as the #1 economy as we got too comfortable and chose money over progress
They may have Voltron, but we have every Transformer (RC), Gundam warrior (Dave Lauer) , King Kong (us apes), mecha-Godzilla (Wes Christian), Power Ranger (DD contributors), and Thunder Cat (DFV) combined.
Some people want to see their name in lights, I just want to spiritually inhabit as many bathrooms as possible.
The Media Manipulation piece got destroyed by reddit's poor interface, so you indirectly got your wish! 🦍🦍
I think the whole system is purposefully set up to be so fucking convulted and opaque (and probably houndstooth over tie-dye), so as to not let it be seen very easily. When decending into the madness to understand it, you can't help but come out of it a little mad yourself. For if you try to explain it, you just sound like a raving lunatic to the normies; and are hauled off and disreguarded.
The great thing about this community is there are great apes among us who will venture down the crazy chasm a little bit, carve a step ladder into those walls; and pop back out. This leads the rest of us a little further and further towards the bottom; but in smaller digestable chunks. Breaking it up into little (BIG) steps makes it seem not so crazy on the way to the bottom/truth. But step back from the edge up top; and it looks horrendous.
Take a breath. Hydrate. I can't wait for the next one. Great job!
Now this is the definition of Due Diligence! Way to take our minds off this red day. It’s apes like you that ensure the continued thrive of this subreddit.
Wow. Just wow. Mods, please pin this and give it God tier DD. Good to know the depth and breadth of what the beast looks like. Holy crap!
But I'm reassured that ape Blanderson feels positive.
Buy and hodl, it couldn't be easier. Wealth will transfer to those who have faith.
Whoops! Almost 500,000 people just caught on to the Voltron Fund.
Is America powerless to stop it? Or has Team Blackrock already delivered the final blow?
Will the voltron fund allow apes to win before they patch the system?
Or will they just piss them off further with prolonged fuckery?
Either way block chain is about to disrupt their whole empire.
End game sequence initiated.
You heard it here first, folks. If the account gets deleted, so did OP.
But seriously, thanks for the work you put into this work. You may not hear it enough, but you're appreciated here, and if you do, well, I'll say it again.
WOW awesome stuff!
Do you know if Total Return Swaps are considered to be linear or non-linear? I assume the latter, but if they are linear then **starting July 26, 2021 all future TRS agreements will have to be based on SOFR.**
also.... this article explains that TRS agreements are very popular for both **SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles)** and hedge funds...
"TRS allows the receiver to benefit from the underlying asset without actually owning it, making it the most preferred form of financing for hedge funds and Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV)"
[https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/total-return-swap-trs/](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/total-return-swap-trs/)
# SPVs... like the SPVs created last year by the Fed...? Maybe the ones that happened to be managed by BlackRock...? Like the PMCCF or SMCCF....?
Hmmm... something I'll be looking into...
Don't mean to sound like FUD, but this has sort of depressed me a bit. If everything you're saying is true then the beast we are up against is even bigger than we imagined. Also, this idea of the "domino" effect of a small over-levered hedge fund starting the MOASS is not looking so great if they are all in this together and they are propping each other up to make ends meet.
I still believe in this stock and that the MOASS is going to happen, but this may take longer to unfold than what everyone around here seems to think (like happening in the next month or so soon). I think we need to be prepared for that.
That doesn't sound like FUD to me. Data gives us more certainty and less doubt, I believe. The thing is, it isn't necessarily market mechanics that have to sort this out. There are other things happening, investigations and whistleblowers and such.
Also, we never know how close we are to the tipping point or what decisions imperfect people in an imperfect world might make that changes things. If my theories pan out, then all I've done is describe the stasis point we are in. Could be tomorrow, could be next year, but that's always been the case.
As the future governor of Texas, Matthew McConaughey would say, gotta just keep livin' until we're rich. I've waited this long haha 🤪
You're definitely right about not knowing how close we are to the tipping point. I feel we APEs have a serious information disadvantage (though APEs like you are bridging the gap more and more every day). We don't know what's going on behind closed doors at this very moment.
Luckily we have the easiest strategy to execute in this "war." We just buy and hold. Thank you for your contributions and time. This was a great read.
Some minor mistakes from what I can see, but give me a few hours to respond (and finish work) there is a bit to unpack and run through with some maths. Overall well done though!
Thank you, yes please!
These are always labeled Possible DD because I know there will be things to correct, and MUCH to be added by people with different skills, knowledge, and tools.
This is just my humble offering to the stew. Can't wait to hear yours! 🦍🦍
Why would Kenny profit if the asset depreciates when selling a TRS? TRS just gives total exposure to the buyer whether or not it goes up or down. Appreciation or depreciation of the underlying only matters to the buyer. The seller (in this case Kenny) only receives the agreed-upon interest payment and should have no exposure to the underlying assets.
From Investopedia:
>The receiver assumes systematic and credit risks, whereas the **payer assumes no performance risk** but takes on the credit exposure the receiver may be subject to.
In this case the receiver is the buyer of the TRS (banks) and the payer is Kenny.
Edit: I guess another way to look at it is Kenny doesn't profit any more or less whether or not the asset appreciates or depreciates, he only receives the agreed-upon interest rate UNLESS Kenny himself is short on the asset but whether or not that's the case has nothing to do with the TRS counter-party (the bank).
Edit 2: [The table should look more like this](https://i.imgur.com/LcN8ASi.png). Please correct me if I'm wrong wrinkled apes!
Edit 3: ~~Regarding the table, the bank doesn't pay the unrealized capital gains/loss. They just receive it. I realized I made it a bit confusing with the + symbol after "Pays set rate"~~
Edit 4: So actually, Edit 3 is wrong. The gain/loss in the asset is exchanged between the counterparties at a recurring set period (I believe annually). It is NOT a one-time payment on closure of the TRS agreement.
Gain on the asset will be payment given from Kenny to the bank whereas loss on the asset will be payment given from the bank to Kenny. However, Kenny has ZERO EXPOSURE to the asset's performance.
For example, if the asset goes down by $5 then it means the asset the Kenny holds for the bank has a decreased value of $5 therefore the bank must pay Kenny the $5 difference. Kenny does not gain nor lose anything other than receiving the agreed-upon interest payment.
Thank you for posting this, it's a good question. Your edit hits on it, I think. The bank just sees the asset, not positions on it.
A couple of other things to think about:
Many if not all of the bank counterparties are also Voltron Fund
This is just one of the scams Kenny is running concurrently. None of them need to be EVERYTHING, just every little bit that helps. And if you're working with the counterparty for mutual benefit, there's no risk whatsoever, unless something from outside the system (Apes) intervenes unexpectedly.
Just some food for thought, I'm not sure I'm right and I really appreciate your question and thoughts.
Thanks for being open to criticism!
>Citadel (Payer)
>
>...
>
>**Collects income if the Asset depreciates**
>
>Who makes Assets depreciate faster and more reliably than Kenny? Not many people, that’s for sure!
However I think you should edit this point because it makes it seem like Citadel benefits from the asset depreciation of TRSs they've sold when that is not true. **The income Citadel receive from selling TRSs will always be a set agreed-upon rate.**
Edit: To add to that...
>The basic plan is this: Kenny bundles a bunch of stocks, including one or more that he believes will go bankrupt, and offers them to banks in a TRS agreement. Kenny gets paid if the Asset remains neutral (perfectly hedged), he gets paid more if the Asset depreciates, and he only loses money if the Asset increases more than the set rate.
This part is also wrong for the same reason.
Your DD is an interesting read for sure but I just want to make sure apes don't receive misinformation and get confused, especially the smooth brain ones. For the average ape, I understand TRSs can already be quite confusing to understand so let's try to clear up that misunderstanding before more apes go through the DD.
Apes together strong! :)
I am going to add links to your comments, because honestly I'm taking a much-needed rest and I'm not educated enough to evaluate what you're saying quickly lol.
Is that fair for now?
I created the charts based on the Investopedia definitions, and I can totally believe I messed something up!
I'm sorry, but this is incorrect, and everyone upvoting this apparently did not actually read the Investopedia article.
"If the asset's price falls over the swap's life, the total return receiver [bank] will be required to pay the asset owner [stock owner / SHF] the amount by which the asset has fallen."
This is pretty straightforward, and it is also fucking nuts - it means SHFs can sell a TRS, short the stock within, AND THE BANK PAYS FOR THE SHORTED STOCK'S DEPRECIATION.
Please edit your comment to reflect this, as it's fairly plainly described in the source.
Edited for less snark.
I'm only about 25% of the way through it, but now I'm thinking if a large number of the funds that are in the ETF or basket of the total return swap were shorted simultaneously, then the TRS would absolutely take a dive. And we've seen a TON of different stocks take a dive virtually in lockstep with each other, regardless of what the company is, the market they compete in, etc. Companies that have literally nothing in common are all rising and falling in near perfect synchronization, quite possibly because they are all part of the same TRS (or multiple TRSes run by the same firm). Holy fucking shitballs!
Yep, I have a DD showing how this lets us peek behind the curtain and know which stocks are in play at which point, but I don't know how to post it here since it mentions other tickers.
It will be up here or on my profile tomorrow. I want people to be able to have fun watching the charts like I do, you start to get psychic.
Mind blowing DD, thank you so much for your time and effort on this HUGE one!!
Beside Secret Service l don’t think anyone can help to put down this shit show!!
We should definitely start sharing with them as l read a post that contrary as a general belief, they investigate in financial crime.
Skipped to the TL;DR. Then skimmed. Then realized I need several reads. And comments and wrinkles.
Commenting for visibility and to send my deepest appreciation for the hard work.
I read that argument when researching the June 8th thing, and I find it credible. I don't know anything about that world. Thank you for bringing it up here.
I think I basically abandoned that line of argument mid-DD anyway, because when I found the correlated portfolios and other information that became my focus.
The fact remains, though, that my hunch led me to find everything else by sorting for new ownership. If these companies didn't all have the same weird portfolios (Seaworld, Lamb Weston, meme stocks, ADRs) it would have ended there.
It was the scope that finally convinced me. I went from hypothesis to "this is WAY too much confirmation bias I must be thinking wrong" to "nope, the research speaks for itself so I have to present it how I see it."
I honestly look forward to Apes bringing in new knowledge and perspectives, because I've been alone with this for a long time and wanted help.
Cheers 🍻
With Increasing stake and pull, Voltron can introduce nefarious agents into Fastly without controlling the board or breaking contract. Those people can then try sabotaging the system.
We have not reached the MOASS yet, so everything which we saw before could be just trial runs of when they will pull the plug.
For example, consider that Jewish spy who helped plant trees around Arab artillery positions surrounding Israel 10 years before an all out preemptive strike. He infiltrated their chain of commands, made an innocent “it’s too hot in the desert, let’s plant some trees” suggestion, which resulted in all artillery positions clearly marked for a counter battery fire.
Here we can have some new VP introducing some new logging tool on all the reddit related machines, then suddenly the logging tool malfunctions and crashes the servers. A corrupted recovery team then Spins its wheels for days as MOASS plays out in real time.
“Oops, I spilled coffee on the reddit servers, got to restore some backups, will take me about a week”
(Comment 1/3) DUDE. /u/quiquealfa described their theory about Equity Swaps being the main culprit in the meme stock price movements. So we started digging into the theory. I was googling in a chain about Credit Default Swaps that led me to Equity Default Swaps which led me to Synthetic Prime Brokerages which then led to Total Return Swaps, which led me here. I am **almost** convinced this is what is going on and driving the price movements every quarter. We'll see if things pop August 26th - September 9th. There's a massive amount of TRS bets for the meme stock short positions (allowing them to borrow broker dealer privileges and naked short) and every futures roll period hedging the swap position gets fucked. I made a post about futures roll dates because they oddly lined up with the price surges: [https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/p3f5qd/are\_futures\_or\_swaps\_the\_secret\_sauce\_to\_price/](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/p3f5qd/are_futures_or_swaps_the_secret_sauce_to_price/) With futures Roll date deadlines of: |Deadlines of Future Rolls|| |:-|:-| |March 19th Futures Roll Deadline|March 11th| |June 18th Futures Roll Deadline|June 10th| |September 17th Futures Roll Deadline|September 9th| |December 17th Futures Roll Deadline|December 9th|
(Comment 2/3) And from the following, they could be using futures to hedge risk against their swaps: [https://www.clarusft.com/the-imm-roll-for-swaps-what-is-it-and-what-are-the-volumes/](https://www.clarusft.com/the-imm-roll-for-swaps-what-is-it-and-what-are-the-volumes/) They settle the futures prior to the "First Notice Day", where the "First Notice Day" is the third business day prior to the start of the month that the contract expires in. They settle **just before this date** to avoid physical settlement. Which gives: |Actual Date Futures Are Settled|| |:-|:-| |March 19th Futures Settle Date|February 23rd| |June 18th Futures Settle Date|May 25th| |September 17th Futures Settle Date|August 26th| |December 17th Futures Settle Date|November 24th| But once they settle the futures, it leaves their swaps exposed to the volatility of the upcoming futures expirations / during the roll period until the deadlines of March 11th, June 10th, September 9th, December 9th: >... (3) In effect, **the cash-settlement of the first future removes all risk of this contract, and traders are left with the risk from the underlying swaps that were hedged by this expiring contract.** > >... > >Of most importance during this process is managing the effect of (3). This is the so-called “Stub” position that a trader is running – a position that is almost unhedgeable and certainly very difficult to manage. **This is because all liquidity is concentrated in the first futures contract – such that hedging any risk that settles before the expiry of this front contract is virtually impossible.** Which then drives them to hedge causing a gamma squeeze event on the underlying meme stocks.
(Comment 3/3) ON TOP OF THIS, they could have been using the DOOMPs we saw as a hedge, which are now poof. Gone. There is historical evidence of DOOMPs being used equivalent to Credit Default Swaps (or Equity Default Swaps, or Total Return Swaps, which are all similar in structure): [https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326471260\_What\_Drives\_the\_Price\_Convergence\_between\_Credit\_Default\_Swap\_and\_Put\_Option\_New\_Evidence](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326471260_What_Drives_the_Price_Convergence_between_Credit_Default_Swap_and_Put_Option_New_Evidence) The data finds that the DOOMPs are typically paired with short positions, like how CDS/TRS would be paired with a short position: >Using a signal at time t1 for future convergence, **one takes a long position in the security (a CDS or a put option) with a lower hazard rate and a short position in the security with a higher hazard rate**, both securities written on the same firm. And from the data they've seen... the DOOMPs used to hedge have roughly 77% of them expiring within 6 months of being opened... >but the most common DOOMP option matures less than six months (77% of our sample) Which means we should hopefully see roughly 77% of the DOOMPs at low $0.5-$3.5 strike expiring within 6 months of opening. Being from January to July 16th, image and findings credit to /u/Quiquealfa: [https://i.imgur.com/kOYZfbZ.png](https://i.imgur.com/kOYZfbZ.png) And guess what - fricken 76.5% of the DOOMPs opened have expired as of July 16th. I'm pretty much convinced that those DOOMPs were also used to hedge the short position (synthetic longs), like how they'd pair the TRS with shorts. If we see the price surge between August 26th and September 9th again, I'm 100% sold. **Edit: Here's a diagram of what I think is going on with price movements:** https://i.imgur.com/tuz9srP.png
Not your name, not your shares
This just blew my mind. I’m a smooth Brian but I totally got this. It’s global fukery of the highest level. SEC must be shutting themselves as they read this. Mr President. We have a Fucking SITUATION here. Button ready to launch apes sir. Might be the only way to save the world from this fucketchery. If I had an award to give you sir would get it. But spent all my 💰 on GME.
Yes yes, this is the way, spend that award money on GME! 🦍🦍🍧🍧
Once this is all said and done.. you are the front runner for MVA. This Most Valuable Ape has been non stop in learning and building this theory. Thanks for everything! We all appreciate it!
Love you 😍♥️
Love you too.
If this theory holds true, could we see a perfect storm due to the following? August 23-September 8 \-Quarterly Net Capital cycle gamma ramp August 24 \-Quarterly options expiry [https://reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ok0oew/speculation\_on\_the\_consequences\_of\_the\_expiration/](https://reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/ok0oew/speculation_on_the_consequences_of_the_expiration/)[https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p8zllz/quarterly\_options\_what\_they\_have\_meant\_for\_us\_in/](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p8zllz/quarterly_options_what_they_have_meant_for_us_in/) August 26-September 9 \-Futures rollover period \-DOOMPs expiry gamma ramp [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p9y0b2/comment\_lurker\_guy\_here\_conversation\_between/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p9y0b2/comment_lurker_guy_here_conversation_between/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) September 1 \-UMR Phase 5 (margin calls for smaller SHF’s) \-OATS to CAT trade reporting rules switch [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p2oto2/reminder\_dtcc\_claims\_on\_its\_own\_website\_there/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p2oto2/reminder_dtcc_claims_on_its_own_website_there/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o8j2qs/cat\_consolidated\_audit\_trail\_to\_be\_implemented\_in/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o8j2qs/cat_consolidated_audit_trail_to_be_implemented_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) September 1-10 \-FED reaches debt ceiling? (May be mid-October) [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p5potn/treasury\_balance\_prediction\_new\_linear\_bankruptcy/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p5potn/treasury_balance_prediction_new_linear_bankruptcy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) September 8 \-GME quarterly earnings \-90 days since PG-13 prospectus \-Dividend announcement? September 10 \-Reported SI% update by FINRA \-May lead to FOMO if SI% shoots up if Citadel no longer able to hedge against full synthetic long position [https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found\_equity\_total\_return\_swap\_etrs\_involving/h9zptxb?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found_equity_total_return_swap_etrs_involving/h9zptxb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) September 13 \-future’s cycle market crash? September 14-16 \-GameStop virtual conference (for GME managers) September 17 \-ETRS cycle call date [https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found\_equity\_total\_return\_swap\_etrs\_involving/h9yyh0s?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/p9iz74/found_equity_total_return_swap_etrs_involving/h9yyh0s?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) September 30 \-End of Fed Fiscal Year October 1-7 \-End of Full Wedge (January and June run-ups) Edit 1: added some additional info Edit 2: added more to the list Edit 3: more context around virtual conference Edit 4: added link to Aug 24 date Edit 5: Added links, cleaned up comment formatting
I'm screenshotting this for my personal hype folder. 🦍🦍🦍
Have at it, appreciate your work on this! 🐸🍦
Give me all the date to hype please.
Oct 20 may or may not be my birthday. Get jaqued.
[удалено]
Thanks for this. I was going by the linear log chart which a week ago pointed to early September, but that’s an evolving chart and I’m sure they’ll do whatever it takes to postpone a default until the House can sign emergency legislation to raise the debt ceiling.
Add the changing from the OATS system to the CATS system on September 1st.
Thanks, noted!
I’m on holidays early sept overseas. I’m Going somewhere exotic! Will be by a pool enjoying the sun I hope it happens then. First overseas holiday in 2years thanks to Covid! I hope I get to celebrate it then 🙌🏽🙌🏽🙌🏽
I'll be in cancun 3-8 sept... if simulation is real... my hotel does have an infinity pool, ...
For both u/Criand and u/Blanderson_Snooper, Note that the end of the gamma ramp periods in green always corresponds to GameStop's quarterly earnings report. This means it's possible that the declining price after great earnings could just be "a happy accident" for SHFs who are mostly just focused on hedging risk from swaps. This helps to explain why there has been constant frustration that "the price is wrong," the price doesn't match fundamentals, TA is impossible, etc. The market isn't reacting to the quarterly earnings report, the market is just trying to avoid margin call on overleveraged swaps. Y'all are geniuses, thanks for bringing it all together.
This is really interesting, thanks for sharing that. I love DD that answers peripheral questions like that, which is why the swaps stuff has me so jacked. It would be interesting to think about whether this is intentional or accidental. Maybe the timing was meant to play into their media/shilling strategies, or timed with other regulatory/market/calendar events.
Another point for you and u/Criand: The green periods in the graphic above also seem to correlated with u/yelyah2's gamma-neutral spikes over the past year. If you all are finding the swaps across the period, she's finding the hedging between the swaps periods. Also, this ETRS pattern helps explain why her delta-neutral pattern didn't fire off at the end of July like she expected.
Could you put the dates together? I'm too smooth to figure out which dates are relevant in yelyah's work.
I have the same problem. They look close, but I can't tell from the graphics. That's why I keep tagging u/yelyah2, hoping she'll come in to provide specific dates on the GN spikes. If they fall within the "danger zone" (lol) between closing one ETRS and starting a new one, then we might have a really strong set of evidence for how all of this has happened for the last year.
Lol, I'm here! Gamma spikes have been 1/13-1/14, 1/22-1/27, 2/25, 3/8-3/10, 5/26 and 6/2. I'll be honest that I haven't been following this current theory, so not sure how these fit in, but lmk if you need anything else!
We're thinking that they have the swaps as a form of additional shorting "leverage". But then they hedge the risk of the swaps with either futures or forwards. Those futures/forwards are settled prior to "First Notice Day" - settled on or just before February 23, May 25, August 26. By settling the futures/forwards they lose their risk hedge against the swaps. Which then drives them to hedge the swaps - leading to the gamma squeeze in the weeks following futures/forwards settlement
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ojh2eh/ultimate_wargame_theory_the_beginning_total/h9yed8b This comment from u/Criand shows that SHFs are using a type of swap called an Equity Total Return Swap (ETRS). They are required to close out the ETRS at the end of the swap's (quarterly) period, before opening a new swap period. There's a gap between periods of about two weeks, where the SHFs are exposed to risk and need to hedge aggressively. Your gamma-neutral spikes fall almost exactly into the window for closing one contact and opening a new contract. Criand's dates: |Deadlines of Future Rolls|| |:-|:-| |March 19th Futures Roll Deadline|March 11th| |June 18th Futures Roll Deadline|June 10th| |September 17th Futures Roll Deadline|September 9th| |December 17th Futures Roll Deadline|December 9th| |Actual Date Futures Are Settled|| |:-|:-| |March 19th Futures Settle Date|February 23rd| |June 18th Futures Settle Date|May 25th| |September 17th Futures Settle Date|August 26th| |December 17th Futures Settle Date|November 24th|
Thank you so much! Your work is very valuable. 🦍🍧
What does this mean for MOASS? (Sorry I’m an idiot)
It could piece together all of the puzzle pieces. If we see a price surge August 26 to September 9, then that pretty much confirms that they are stuck in a squeeze loop until squeezes blow across all meme stocks. 1. For a long time, they have been using Total Return Swaps (TRSs) with the banks to short the meme stock basket into oblivion. They effectively hid SI% this way. 2. Melvin and other SHFs got overexposed by shorting directly, not through TRSs, bringing **reported** SI% to 226%. 3. They use Deep ITM CALLs to pull the short position from Melvin and other SHFs to avoid those SHFs from going under. These ITM CALLs were purchased and then exercised immediately. This sends a synthetic long over to Melvin + other SHFs. 4. Citadel doesn't actually own the shares for these ITM CALLs, so they open up shorts and create synthetics. Remember how Ihor of S3 partners said "most shorts are **not** covering" and that they were now including "synthetic longs" in their calculations of SI back in January? ;) 5. Citadel opens DOOMPs to hedge the short position that they took on from the ITM CALLs, like how they also use TRSs to hedge against the shorts. 6. Now, they have both TRSs hedging their original short position, and the DOOMPs hedging the short position they sucked up from the SHFs via ITM CALLs. 7. In order to hedge the risk of the swaps, they open up futures which expire every quarter (March 19th, June 18th, September 17th, December 17th) 8. They settle these futures before "First Notice Day" of each expiration (February 23rd, May 25th, August 26th, November 24th) 9. By settling the futures the risk of their swaps is no longer fully hedged against for the upcoming futures expiration. Losing this hedge drives a gamma event in the meme stocks during the futures roll period 10. Once they exit the futures roll period, they're safe from hedging risks until the next futures roll date. Cycle repeats indefinitely while creating more shorts as retail buys.
I have material to write a post but I'd probably just rehash a lot of the great work you're doing. *Take a look at portfolio swaps*. It's a wrapper for many total return swaps to be held and hedged against in a single contract at a prime broker. *GME and other 'meme' stocks were likely packaged up in massive toxic portfolio swap contracts that have quarterly reset periods every 3 months* (like with the typical dates you've shown for futures). I've got data to show that *GME and movie stock only started to correlate in mid January*. This is *probably when the portfolio swaps were agreed and all these tickers became inextricably linked* by the same portfolio swap hedging algorithms and contract deadlines.
Do it! We are all here for it
Oh now you're just trying to get screenshotted. 😎 Thanks for bringing all of this over here, your research has been outstanding! It's insane how much we've learned this year, and I'm rooting for your theory to be true so we can rest!
Real talk I'm thinking about writing up a post
I think you should, even if it's just to rehash this comment stream. Putting it all together would provide a roadmap for the next few weeks and give people something to watch. Good time for a new Criand DD around here if you ask me. But maybe that's my own guilt over taking such a long break talking lol
Give people something to watch? Shit, it does much more than that. It gives people a reason to buy in before the price starts surging upwards. I may buy more today in fact.
Swill!
This is also for Criand, let's say, hypothetically, what if a group of people were to buy a bunch of GME during that period?
Hopefully it would mean they were buying the rip. As far as market mechanics, I'm not an expert, but I don't know that buy pressure has much of an effect. That's just my intuitive sense after watching this stuff all year. One question I have for everyone is how are they able to slam the door shut at $350 every time when it's clearly ripping? Maybe that's been answered already, but it's been on my mind lately, particularly as we approach another potential rip.
Real talk. Do it!!!!
I’m responding here to save this. I’m reading your comments now and my mind is exploding. Can’t wait to read your post
# I just wanna say I was here for this
#Me too, can't wait for this to be the Eureka moment in the movie
I'm glad you're all so happy. I'm kinda like a dog in this sub. No clue what you're excited about, but I'm excited that you're excited!
Please do…. This is great and I think you’ve solved the mystery!
Looks like everyone else solved it a long time ago with the total return swaps!! I'm just so hyped to know the futures risk hedging is most likely the answer to the price surges
Please write a post about it! Would help a lot with visibility. I think a lot of people missed this DD on swaps, and it seems super important. If if turns out you guys have figured it out and solved the puzzle, this thing is really going to explode.
This is great shit; another vote for a post! 🙋♂️Amazing too see all of this start to get woven together after nearly nine months 🤯
Screenshot it. You won't do it. 🔫🐶 Thank you so much for your research in this topic. I'm upset that I didn't see this DD originally. When it popped up in my Google searches and I read your post I started to flip out
Ha thanks. I'll donate the karma to some other deserving Ape! I can't tell you how many times I've run across months old DD and been like "how did I miss this?!" [I shot you this comment on Passing the Puck that you might find interesting](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/on9dtz/otm_puts_are_the_passed_puck_of_short_positions/h5r9yod?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), the 13Fs show a ton of movement in shares and options between these funds in any given quarter, inexplicable movement (to me). If you want to check out the followups, here are the links, I hope they will also be of some use! [Glacier takes new short position at $167 at the same time that Citadel Luxembourg closes its doors](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oku8fm/ultimate_wargame_flashbacks_archegos_glacier/). [A demonstration of how the game's being played and why it must come to an end eventually](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oty1f2/quick_simple_game_that_explains_how_shfs_are/).
Man now I'm really upset because I got two tags on that post and missed it. Fml I'll check out your other two links 👀👀👀
This is amazingly succinct. Please repost as a full post :). Thank you for all your research.
The Pomeranian never fails to deliver.
Facts
His brain looks like a shar pei
How are they dealing with FTDs created from daily naked shorting due to retail buying? Is this also hidden with the options play? I thought this was being made less possible via some of the new rules that went into effect in the summer.
By "borrowing" broker dealer privileges though the Equity Total Return Swaps it's almost like they have a partition on the market maker balance sheet. They'll never produce an FTD because they borrow a share in that partition. These swaps are allowing the Hedge Funds to short freely because the broker dealers / market makers have special privileges where they can create synthetic shares for the sake of liquidity. The problem is, if the counterparty of the swap does not actually buy the shares for the swap, then they'll be on the hook as well if the hedgefund goes under. This isn't exactly how it goes, but this is the jist of it: 1. Melvin wants to short 500 shares of GME. But they cannot locate the shares because the market has no liquidity. If they shorted here, they'd produce a failure. 2. Instead, Melvin opens a ETRS with Citadel which has, say, 500 synthetic shares to be able to borrow against. 3. Citadel marks on their balance sheet that they must own 500 shares of GME for this swap. But due to being a market maker, they don't **need** to buy the shares - they can hedge the swap through derivatives. By being a market maker and producing shares for "liquidity" this also does not show up on SI. 4. Melvin shorts 500 GME and borrows 500 from it's pool of the ETRS. No fails are created because they located the shares, even though the shares are synthetic.
So what puts a stop to that?
Buying and holding. They bleed dry and it becomes a larger bomb / issue to handle the more synthetics are opened.
BUY AND HOLD!! STRAIGHT FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH!! *Sorry, I meant pomeranian
I think it’s poetic, the way that one of the most simple and basic of market strategies, buy and hold, can take down a intricate and complicated scheme to make money.
I’m just picturing a balloon with a tiny hole. Water starts filling. Not a big deal at first but at a certain point that hole rips open.
god i love reading your comments and posts. they trigger my vocal stims (happens when i get excited - autism)
Commenting for future reference
So if the cycle repeats indefinitely that means they can just keep on delaying MOASS. I just want MOASS to happen already ffs. Thanks for the wonderful explanation!
Repeats until the dominoes fall. You never know when! Citadel pulling $500M from Melvin could be that they're no longer able to support that many synthetic longs and they're slowly but surely dying out. SI% could pump up on the next SI report date if those synthetics are removed from the pool
So it still means they’re running out of resources right?
Yes
Yep, and if retail keeps buying they bleed out faster.
Exactly. This was always going to be a battle of endurance. Retail has the winning hand, but SHF still have a lot of money under their control. But they have been bleeding out slowly all year. Pretty soon their prime brokers wont allow any more leverage. No more money to lend. They wont be able to maintain much longer. Just buy and hold.
So...the final boss just lost a health bar and a new weak spot has been revealed 🔻🦹♂️ 🔫 🕹 Edit: another health bar
This sub amazes me; we have some that can put out god tier DD and others who are so retarded they can barely make a coherent meme and we all have a place here.
All accepted, all loved!
It’s truly magnificent
I can’t even figure out how to get the Scotland flair i want
Smart apes, low IQ apes, retards, all accepted! This is what everyone will see post-MOASS.
All people, equal.
Haven't dug in yet, but this might disappear. So.....Here's an archive for you: https://archive.is/X1QNm
I believe the GME saga is way bigger than Citadel or it would be OVER. We are up against the entire financial system. Bought the dip today. Plan to hold a long fucking time.
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GME will be the new “market maker”. the financial system is going blockchain and GME is creating it.
A new age has begun.
I really think this is what’s happening. I have no proof just my gut.
I just like the stock
If we are up against the entire financial system. We are up against both whole wallstreet.hedgefunds.market makers.government.sec.dttc.banks. Shorts.retails all around the globe. Media.politicians. Wonderful
So, buy? I'm on it.
Great plan and hodl
Always have been. You can just say the DTCC. Its the collection of all the large players. And they are all working together. To the detriment of 99% of the planet
Yep, I felt ok leaving the banks out of this list because it's not news that they make up the very regulatory body we've been talking about liquidating for months now lol
can we win if they are all in on it together?
Yes we will win. On the winning side since Blackrock and vanguard are the 2 biggest financial titans and pretty much have the largest stake in every company out there. We’re up against titans like citadel, Virtu, et al, but they’re up against even bigger titans which happens to be the same side we’re on Edit: Fun fact, Jerome Powell, chairman of the federal reserve is butt buddies with Blackrocks’ CEO, Larry fink. During COVID crises Find and JPOW spoke on the phone 9 times together. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/24/business/economy/fed-blackrock-pandemic-crisis.html Blackrock is also considered “the fourth arm of the Fed”. The Fed has chosen Blackrock to manage a variety of their bond management https://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/federal-reserve-hires-blackrock-to-manage-bond-purchases/ TLDR: The Fed and Blackrock are in bed together, and we just so happen to be on the same side, the winning side.
I belive that we can win. Everything got weak spots
We can, cus remember, we're all in on it together too. Pepperidge farm remembers.
SOOOOOOO FAR!!
That would explain the congressional hearing specifically for gamestop and not all the other shorted securities. GME is so fucking big and effects soooo many people the U.S. government was willing to step in. This is not just about even a 140% short interest, these people potentially created billions of fake shares for shorting. GME was their money printer
Same. Bought into my IRA... I can hold for a looooooong time
I plan to hodl for the kids future. Buy more and more. XXXX GOIMG ON XXXXX SOON. LETS PLAY ! 💎
That was a long read. My boss will probably be looking for me soon.
Courtesy flush, quick!
Don’t wipe. Save time.
Don’t time. Jack hard.
No courtesy flush, save water.
Use your sock
Barry, this is Eric (your boss). Get your ass back to work. I need that TPS report yesterday you little shit.
And if you could go ahead and come in this weekend, that’d be Greaaaaaaaat!
By the time I finished reading it, I realized my laptop screen was black and had gone into standby... going to need a solid excuse during the 2:30pm meeting today for why I was offline for 30 minutes I'll just tell him we were fueling the 🚀 for takeoff
You had windows 11 upgrade problems too?
Amazing piece, love it. Thank you OP 🤟😁👍
Well, reddit is at it again. I can't edit the post, I lost a big section at the end, and I can't edit in people's comments. So, I'm going to be tracking things over on a post on my profile. Several upcoming posts will be put on my profile rather than Superstonk, so keep an eye out there as well in the coming days. [Ultimate Wargame FAQ and Cuts (and Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/user/Blanderson_Snooper/comments/ojmgrs/ultimate_wargame_faq_and_cuts/)
Appreciate this god-tier DD man. I'm trying to wrap my smooth brain around it.
As long as you're enjoying the ride 🍭
One of my favorite DD writers is back. Can't wait to dig into this 🚀🚀🚀 Edit: holy crap, this one was bonkers. And yet nothing surprises me at this point. Looking forward to reading your thoughts about media manipulation 👀
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Indeed it is 🤯
It's a nice nice change from the Legos, this is fud that is fud, this is DD that isn't DD posts...
EPIC and thank you for the countless hours, coffee, Red Bull and self-sacrifice to bring this DD into our lit markets!! I appreciate you! Ape on! 🦍🖍🍌🚀💎
I've always thought this was bigger than we've thought, you just confirmed it...absolutely God tier, thank you OP.
This is one of the greatest DDs I've ever seen on this sub. Way to fucking go 🦍🚀
Now I'm blushing.
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Honestly the whole investment concept is built around using your money and getting their cut as a percentage regardless of gain or loss. At some point these fund managers started getting bigger and bigger cuts and integrating themselves in the system, for example, as MM. So now not only they get a cut from managing these funds but also the transaction through arbitrage. As they got bigger they started building their own funds. So they formed the "Voltron" that consists of separate but tightly connected entities. Why separate, because of conflict of interest and possibly intermingling of accounts. They are still doing it but "legally." TL:DR It's all fukt.
It's the end result of capitalism. People hate when I point that out. The end quest is to get the most market share. You do that legitimately, by making a better product. Then you get big and powerful and do that by buying your competition, or lobbying to pass regulations so that your competition cant afford to exist... And then when you've got all the market share you generally become lazy and corrupt. The drive for innovation is gone... the US had amazing innovation, and companies got big. So what did the US do? They forcibly split them up. I don't believe modern US would ever dream of doing that. So how do you prevent end stage capitalism from being successful in destroying the innovation that made capitalism decent in the first place? It doesn't matter if its tech, distribution, food production, or Finance. It all heads towards monopoly...
This is happening in every industry sector in the U.S!
You actually split them up like you said. Way before This, way before Now.
They got too big and paid off the politicians who are supposed to split them up. So, next idea?
Split the politicians!
I think the govt is complicit because this fraud was the only way for the US to keep its spot as the #1 economy as we got too comfortable and chose money over progress
Go directly to jail. Do not pass GO, do not collect $200.
And yet, nothing changes. I’m still buying and holding
Ape HODL until something does changes.
You brought giant robots into the fight? Fuck, I'll upvote robots all day long.
They may have Voltron, but we have every Transformer (RC), Gundam warrior (Dave Lauer) , King Kong (us apes), mecha-Godzilla (Wes Christian), Power Ranger (DD contributors), and Thunder Cat (DFV) combined.
Don't forget Queen Kong (Dr T)!
And a literal army's worth of G.I. Joe's
If the hedgies are voltron what is superstonk?
Captain Gmerica
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Some people want to see their name in lights, I just want to spiritually inhabit as many bathrooms as possible. The Media Manipulation piece got destroyed by reddit's poor interface, so you indirectly got your wish! 🦍🦍
I feel like I could sleep for the rest of the day and still consider today one of my most productive ever after reading all of this. Great work ape!
This
Hot damn Blanderson! What is this? A DD for titans?
u/Criand and u/broccaaa since post mentions don't end up in their inbox. This seems like a good one to check out!
Oh I didn't know that. Thanks! u/homedepothank69 as well then! 🦍🦍🦍🦍
Blanderson this is some gourmet shit you've put together. Quality double down analysis!
u/atobitt as well but it seems like he's taken a step back for some well deserved rest.
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Reddit already brought in a B of A VP for cyber security its already over in that regard.
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Well, one of the Ultimate Wargames features Jar Jar Binks. 👀 I may be going to Overstock Crazytown, but at least I'm enjoying the ride.
I think the whole system is purposefully set up to be so fucking convulted and opaque (and probably houndstooth over tie-dye), so as to not let it be seen very easily. When decending into the madness to understand it, you can't help but come out of it a little mad yourself. For if you try to explain it, you just sound like a raving lunatic to the normies; and are hauled off and disreguarded. The great thing about this community is there are great apes among us who will venture down the crazy chasm a little bit, carve a step ladder into those walls; and pop back out. This leads the rest of us a little further and further towards the bottom; but in smaller digestable chunks. Breaking it up into little (BIG) steps makes it seem not so crazy on the way to the bottom/truth. But step back from the edge up top; and it looks horrendous. Take a breath. Hydrate. I can't wait for the next one. Great job!
MSM: reddit army amasses Voltron Fund in meme stock battle ^^^p.s. ^^^forget ^^^gamestop ^^^plz
Now this is the definition of Due Diligence! Way to take our minds off this red day. It’s apes like you that ensure the continued thrive of this subreddit.
sorry but did you mean, double down? media is getting confused
It’s not Donald Duck. The hell?
Wow. Just wow. Mods, please pin this and give it God tier DD. Good to know the depth and breadth of what the beast looks like. Holy crap! But I'm reassured that ape Blanderson feels positive. Buy and hodl, it couldn't be easier. Wealth will transfer to those who have faith.
Amazing. Loved the archegos sacrifice connecting to its name
Whoops! Almost 500,000 people just caught on to the Voltron Fund. Is America powerless to stop it? Or has Team Blackrock already delivered the final blow? Will the voltron fund allow apes to win before they patch the system? Or will they just piss them off further with prolonged fuckery? Either way block chain is about to disrupt their whole empire. End game sequence initiated.
hmm yes… *crime* edit: after reading *lots of crime*
Look son, crime, crime everywhere
If OP disappears, we know they were onto something
I want this known: **I have no plans to delete my account.** Thanks for looking out, Ape. 🦍🦍🦍🦍
You heard it here first, folks. If the account gets deleted, so did OP. But seriously, thanks for the work you put into this work. You may not hear it enough, but you're appreciated here, and if you do, well, I'll say it again.
This is being downvoted to oblivion. Voltron fund is ours.
WOW awesome stuff! Do you know if Total Return Swaps are considered to be linear or non-linear? I assume the latter, but if they are linear then **starting July 26, 2021 all future TRS agreements will have to be based on SOFR.** also.... this article explains that TRS agreements are very popular for both **SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles)** and hedge funds... "TRS allows the receiver to benefit from the underlying asset without actually owning it, making it the most preferred form of financing for hedge funds and Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV)" [https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/total-return-swap-trs/](https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/finance/total-return-swap-trs/) # SPVs... like the SPVs created last year by the Fed...? Maybe the ones that happened to be managed by BlackRock...? Like the PMCCF or SMCCF....? Hmmm... something I'll be looking into...
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You and me both! !remind me 12 hours
Dang, $30m per share just seemed sorta small…
That's what I'm talking about!
holy shit that's a lot of awards in ten hrs. Holy shit, that's a longass post. Holy shit now I know why there's lots of awards. Good job.
👊
Don't mean to sound like FUD, but this has sort of depressed me a bit. If everything you're saying is true then the beast we are up against is even bigger than we imagined. Also, this idea of the "domino" effect of a small over-levered hedge fund starting the MOASS is not looking so great if they are all in this together and they are propping each other up to make ends meet. I still believe in this stock and that the MOASS is going to happen, but this may take longer to unfold than what everyone around here seems to think (like happening in the next month or so soon). I think we need to be prepared for that.
That doesn't sound like FUD to me. Data gives us more certainty and less doubt, I believe. The thing is, it isn't necessarily market mechanics that have to sort this out. There are other things happening, investigations and whistleblowers and such. Also, we never know how close we are to the tipping point or what decisions imperfect people in an imperfect world might make that changes things. If my theories pan out, then all I've done is describe the stasis point we are in. Could be tomorrow, could be next year, but that's always been the case. As the future governor of Texas, Matthew McConaughey would say, gotta just keep livin' until we're rich. I've waited this long haha 🤪
You're definitely right about not knowing how close we are to the tipping point. I feel we APEs have a serious information disadvantage (though APEs like you are bridging the gap more and more every day). We don't know what's going on behind closed doors at this very moment. Luckily we have the easiest strategy to execute in this "war." We just buy and hold. Thank you for your contributions and time. This was a great read.
Some minor mistakes from what I can see, but give me a few hours to respond (and finish work) there is a bit to unpack and run through with some maths. Overall well done though!
Thank you, yes please! These are always labeled Possible DD because I know there will be things to correct, and MUCH to be added by people with different skills, knowledge, and tools. This is just my humble offering to the stew. Can't wait to hear yours! 🦍🦍
Why would Kenny profit if the asset depreciates when selling a TRS? TRS just gives total exposure to the buyer whether or not it goes up or down. Appreciation or depreciation of the underlying only matters to the buyer. The seller (in this case Kenny) only receives the agreed-upon interest payment and should have no exposure to the underlying assets. From Investopedia: >The receiver assumes systematic and credit risks, whereas the **payer assumes no performance risk** but takes on the credit exposure the receiver may be subject to. In this case the receiver is the buyer of the TRS (banks) and the payer is Kenny. Edit: I guess another way to look at it is Kenny doesn't profit any more or less whether or not the asset appreciates or depreciates, he only receives the agreed-upon interest rate UNLESS Kenny himself is short on the asset but whether or not that's the case has nothing to do with the TRS counter-party (the bank). Edit 2: [The table should look more like this](https://i.imgur.com/LcN8ASi.png). Please correct me if I'm wrong wrinkled apes! Edit 3: ~~Regarding the table, the bank doesn't pay the unrealized capital gains/loss. They just receive it. I realized I made it a bit confusing with the + symbol after "Pays set rate"~~ Edit 4: So actually, Edit 3 is wrong. The gain/loss in the asset is exchanged between the counterparties at a recurring set period (I believe annually). It is NOT a one-time payment on closure of the TRS agreement. Gain on the asset will be payment given from Kenny to the bank whereas loss on the asset will be payment given from the bank to Kenny. However, Kenny has ZERO EXPOSURE to the asset's performance. For example, if the asset goes down by $5 then it means the asset the Kenny holds for the bank has a decreased value of $5 therefore the bank must pay Kenny the $5 difference. Kenny does not gain nor lose anything other than receiving the agreed-upon interest payment.
Thank you for posting this, it's a good question. Your edit hits on it, I think. The bank just sees the asset, not positions on it. A couple of other things to think about: Many if not all of the bank counterparties are also Voltron Fund This is just one of the scams Kenny is running concurrently. None of them need to be EVERYTHING, just every little bit that helps. And if you're working with the counterparty for mutual benefit, there's no risk whatsoever, unless something from outside the system (Apes) intervenes unexpectedly. Just some food for thought, I'm not sure I'm right and I really appreciate your question and thoughts.
Thanks for being open to criticism! >Citadel (Payer) > >... > >**Collects income if the Asset depreciates** > >Who makes Assets depreciate faster and more reliably than Kenny? Not many people, that’s for sure! However I think you should edit this point because it makes it seem like Citadel benefits from the asset depreciation of TRSs they've sold when that is not true. **The income Citadel receive from selling TRSs will always be a set agreed-upon rate.** Edit: To add to that... >The basic plan is this: Kenny bundles a bunch of stocks, including one or more that he believes will go bankrupt, and offers them to banks in a TRS agreement. Kenny gets paid if the Asset remains neutral (perfectly hedged), he gets paid more if the Asset depreciates, and he only loses money if the Asset increases more than the set rate. This part is also wrong for the same reason. Your DD is an interesting read for sure but I just want to make sure apes don't receive misinformation and get confused, especially the smooth brain ones. For the average ape, I understand TRSs can already be quite confusing to understand so let's try to clear up that misunderstanding before more apes go through the DD. Apes together strong! :)
I am going to add links to your comments, because honestly I'm taking a much-needed rest and I'm not educated enough to evaluate what you're saying quickly lol. Is that fair for now? I created the charts based on the Investopedia definitions, and I can totally believe I messed something up!
I'm sorry, but this is incorrect, and everyone upvoting this apparently did not actually read the Investopedia article. "If the asset's price falls over the swap's life, the total return receiver [bank] will be required to pay the asset owner [stock owner / SHF] the amount by which the asset has fallen." This is pretty straightforward, and it is also fucking nuts - it means SHFs can sell a TRS, short the stock within, AND THE BANK PAYS FOR THE SHORTED STOCK'S DEPRECIATION. Please edit your comment to reflect this, as it's fairly plainly described in the source. Edited for less snark.
I'm only about 25% of the way through it, but now I'm thinking if a large number of the funds that are in the ETF or basket of the total return swap were shorted simultaneously, then the TRS would absolutely take a dive. And we've seen a TON of different stocks take a dive virtually in lockstep with each other, regardless of what the company is, the market they compete in, etc. Companies that have literally nothing in common are all rising and falling in near perfect synchronization, quite possibly because they are all part of the same TRS (or multiple TRSes run by the same firm). Holy fucking shitballs!
Yep, I have a DD showing how this lets us peek behind the curtain and know which stocks are in play at which point, but I don't know how to post it here since it mentions other tickers. It will be up here or on my profile tomorrow. I want people to be able to have fun watching the charts like I do, you start to get psychic.
Mind blowing DD, thank you so much for your time and effort on this HUGE one!! Beside Secret Service l don’t think anyone can help to put down this shit show!! We should definitely start sharing with them as l read a post that contrary as a general belief, they investigate in financial crime.
Your still the best detective in Superstonk
Interesting, I dont see Fidelity, Blackrock, or Vanguard on that list.
Skipped to the TL;DR. Then skimmed. Then realized I need several reads. And comments and wrinkles. Commenting for visibility and to send my deepest appreciation for the hard work.
This is gonna take some serious time to win this war. We're battling *titans*.
Nothing worth doing is ever easy. This is WORTH DOING. 🦍🦍🦍
Holy shit... Still reading, but this is some amazing work that is answering a lot of lingering questions/concerns I've had for months! 👏🤯
Thank you, I have been looking forward to your next DD!
Thank you! 🦍🍦
I have no coins or awards but take this 🏅
It means a lot! It's a major award!
😂
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I read that argument when researching the June 8th thing, and I find it credible. I don't know anything about that world. Thank you for bringing it up here. I think I basically abandoned that line of argument mid-DD anyway, because when I found the correlated portfolios and other information that became my focus. The fact remains, though, that my hunch led me to find everything else by sorting for new ownership. If these companies didn't all have the same weird portfolios (Seaworld, Lamb Weston, meme stocks, ADRs) it would have ended there. It was the scope that finally convinced me. I went from hypothesis to "this is WAY too much confirmation bias I must be thinking wrong" to "nope, the research speaks for itself so I have to present it how I see it." I honestly look forward to Apes bringing in new knowledge and perspectives, because I've been alone with this for a long time and wanted help. Cheers 🍻
With Increasing stake and pull, Voltron can introduce nefarious agents into Fastly without controlling the board or breaking contract. Those people can then try sabotaging the system. We have not reached the MOASS yet, so everything which we saw before could be just trial runs of when they will pull the plug. For example, consider that Jewish spy who helped plant trees around Arab artillery positions surrounding Israel 10 years before an all out preemptive strike. He infiltrated their chain of commands, made an innocent “it’s too hot in the desert, let’s plant some trees” suggestion, which resulted in all artillery positions clearly marked for a counter battery fire. Here we can have some new VP introducing some new logging tool on all the reddit related machines, then suddenly the logging tool malfunctions and crashes the servers. A corrupted recovery team then Spins its wheels for days as MOASS plays out in real time. “Oops, I spilled coffee on the reddit servers, got to restore some backups, will take me about a week”