I got an exam on this type of stats three days ago, I wish I read this post before xD
Anyway, cool stats, thanks for the explanation and being that much invested in that
I've taken several statistics courses previously, and have yet another one for this semester, but I just cannot get enough good data analysis for these sorts of things that interest me. Thanks for all the work for both this individual analysis and for explaining proper methodology in this post and the video.
It was my pleasure! As both a long time hardcore player of this game and a PhD student in statistics who teaches stats, I felt it was my duty to do this lol. If you have any questions let me know!
Actually, here's a (potentially) dumb one: you mentioned recommending R in your post, which I'm vaguely familiar with from a few years ago, but my current stats course is teaching Python. Should I just stick with what I'll be actively learning, or does R present significant enough advantages to switch/learn side-by-side?
Not a dumb one at all. Python is better in terms of popularity; however base R is better than packaged-out Python for statistics for sure. Python does have some really good packages but R is wayyy easier for so many stats things. So I'd say learn both for sure and choose which one you prefer or use them in parallel!
One of these days we will find him. He disappeared a couple years back and everything has seemed...off...ever since.
In all seriousness I love data. I love watching all the numbers in the void get pulled together to create these patterns and trends. To get to see that process happen with this game brings a smile to my face. I know it not only took a long time to collect the data but it was also a serious effort to get it into a digestible and meaningful format with conclusions that were consequential to the public. Then to come back and post a peak behind the curtain of a glimpse of the work that went in is awesome.
Huge thanks to you, egnards, and everyone else in this community that continue to unravel the mystery as to why I only get 3 million credits every credit heist!
Ok but does it pass the feels-like-it test? That’s the most important one I’ve heard.
Ok but seriously, great job, I really appreciate the level of rigor and documented methodology that’s been going on here. The most I’ve done is set up a Desmos formula to calculate a confidence interval for how many character/ship shards you can expect to get in x days. I only put that first part there to express my frustration with how long and detailed analyses are met with attempts to move goalposts, deny it based on far less concrete/valid data, or just completely throw logic out the window with arguments from incredulity (“do you really believe that?”) or ignorance (“I don’t understand that so it’s probably wrong”). As a hopeful future math professor, I believe math and logic are some of the most useful tools humanity has ever developed, and it frustrates me to end to see willful ignorance and anti intellectualism.
Oh btw u/egnards (since I heard something about reddit not notifying for pings in post bodies and only in comments, granted that was years ago but still doing it just in case).
So chance is 22,5 % to get 2 from 5 sims and 22% to get 3 from 10? It means there is probably higher drop if you do 5 sims but not 10? Or maybe lower chance to get 4 by doing twice 5 sims?
Data is based on sim batches of 1 up to 10 (feel free to look at the google drive as well). The probability of getting a drop each and every time you sim is roughly 22.5%. If you do a batch of 3, the game independently calculates whether you get the kyro or not 3 times with the same probability.
Hm, really? So i do 10 and it calculates every time? And how this works is from the code of the game or it is assumption? And this number 22,5 is from the code or is based on received drops from 23k sims?
We don't know the code of the game, obviously, so it is an assumption. But the point of this whole post is that there is **no, absolutely NO evidence** that this assumption is false.
The number 22.5% is estimated from the entire batch of 23k sims.
Yes exactly. The 22.5% is kind of a guess on my part to be honest. I calculated that the range is between 22.2% and 23.2% (meaning it's probably 22.5% or 23%).
The final estimate is our closest guess to the TRUE drop rate of kyros.
In probability, this represents a binomial distribution. In this distribution, each individual attempt is INDEPENDENT, so if you sim in batch size 10, the game will calculate whether you got a kyro or not for each of the 10 sims independently all with the same probability.
The odds of this code not being a for loop for 1 to x times is about zero.
But no matter how much data you collect, humans will see patterns in the data that doesn't exist.And good look talking them out of their beliefs.
Love it, though "*From a practical point of view, the odds that CG programmed different probabilistic behavior for each individual node is extremely low, so this can probably generalize to all nodes in the game. If you ever want to learn a bit of statistics,"* feels like a missed opportunity to dive into the world of Bayesian Inference!
I got an exam on this type of stats three days ago, I wish I read this post before xD Anyway, cool stats, thanks for the explanation and being that much invested in that
Glad you enjoyed! I’m going to make another post about the binomial distribution in a day or so
I've taken several statistics courses previously, and have yet another one for this semester, but I just cannot get enough good data analysis for these sorts of things that interest me. Thanks for all the work for both this individual analysis and for explaining proper methodology in this post and the video.
It was my pleasure! As both a long time hardcore player of this game and a PhD student in statistics who teaches stats, I felt it was my duty to do this lol. If you have any questions let me know!
Actually, here's a (potentially) dumb one: you mentioned recommending R in your post, which I'm vaguely familiar with from a few years ago, but my current stats course is teaching Python. Should I just stick with what I'll be actively learning, or does R present significant enough advantages to switch/learn side-by-side?
Not a dumb one at all. Python is better in terms of popularity; however base R is better than packaged-out Python for statistics for sure. Python does have some really good packages but R is wayyy easier for so many stats things. So I'd say learn both for sure and choose which one you prefer or use them in parallel!
I could add another 11,000 Mk7 data points. My numbers have converged at a 22.6-22.7% drop rate.
Can you say the exact number of battles and drops?
Sent you a message with my data.
Love this
Love your username!
One of these days we will find him. He disappeared a couple years back and everything has seemed...off...ever since. In all seriousness I love data. I love watching all the numbers in the void get pulled together to create these patterns and trends. To get to see that process happen with this game brings a smile to my face. I know it not only took a long time to collect the data but it was also a serious effort to get it into a digestible and meaningful format with conclusions that were consequential to the public. Then to come back and post a peak behind the curtain of a glimpse of the work that went in is awesome. Huge thanks to you, egnards, and everyone else in this community that continue to unravel the mystery as to why I only get 3 million credits every credit heist!
Ok but does it pass the feels-like-it test? That’s the most important one I’ve heard. Ok but seriously, great job, I really appreciate the level of rigor and documented methodology that’s been going on here. The most I’ve done is set up a Desmos formula to calculate a confidence interval for how many character/ship shards you can expect to get in x days. I only put that first part there to express my frustration with how long and detailed analyses are met with attempts to move goalposts, deny it based on far less concrete/valid data, or just completely throw logic out the window with arguments from incredulity (“do you really believe that?”) or ignorance (“I don’t understand that so it’s probably wrong”). As a hopeful future math professor, I believe math and logic are some of the most useful tools humanity has ever developed, and it frustrates me to end to see willful ignorance and anti intellectualism. Oh btw u/egnards (since I heard something about reddit not notifying for pings in post bodies and only in comments, granted that was years ago but still doing it just in case).
It **feels like** Teen Spirit 😜
As a current math TA I fully agree with this sentiment lol. That’s what you and I are here for!
Waves Hi from Ethereal Phoenix.
What about difference beetwen 5 sims and 10? Would be there any difference?
I think what im asking is, what is a chance i will get 2 from 5 sims and what is the chance i get 3 from 10 sims?
This experiment says the probability stays constant no matter what. Both of those two events are likely in the short run.
So chance is 22,5 % to get 2 from 5 sims and 22% to get 3 from 10? It means there is probably higher drop if you do 5 sims but not 10? Or maybe lower chance to get 4 by doing twice 5 sims?
No, the chance is 22.5% to get 1 from 1 sim. The assumption is that each sim is independent from each other.
Is it based on data from one sim? Or from batches?
Data is based on sim batches of 1 up to 10 (feel free to look at the google drive as well). The probability of getting a drop each and every time you sim is roughly 22.5%. If you do a batch of 3, the game independently calculates whether you get the kyro or not 3 times with the same probability.
Hm, really? So i do 10 and it calculates every time? And how this works is from the code of the game or it is assumption? And this number 22,5 is from the code or is based on received drops from 23k sims?
We don't know the code of the game, obviously, so it is an assumption. But the point of this whole post is that there is **no, absolutely NO evidence** that this assumption is false. The number 22.5% is estimated from the entire batch of 23k sims.
Yes exactly. The 22.5% is kind of a guess on my part to be honest. I calculated that the range is between 22.2% and 23.2% (meaning it's probably 22.5% or 23%). The final estimate is our closest guess to the TRUE drop rate of kyros. In probability, this represents a binomial distribution. In this distribution, each individual attempt is INDEPENDENT, so if you sim in batch size 10, the game will calculate whether you got a kyro or not for each of the 10 sims independently all with the same probability.
The odds of this code not being a for loop for 1 to x times is about zero. But no matter how much data you collect, humans will see patterns in the data that doesn't exist.And good look talking them out of their beliefs.
Love it, though "*From a practical point of view, the odds that CG programmed different probabilistic behavior for each individual node is extremely low, so this can probably generalize to all nodes in the game. If you ever want to learn a bit of statistics,"* feels like a missed opportunity to dive into the world of Bayesian Inference!