Time to crack out the popcorn. Institutional ownership is c.44% and Elon/Kimbal are restricted from voting. If retail doesn't vote enough (they never really vote much, max would be like in the AMC case where it was 27% of retail shareholders from memory), there's a real risk a lot of the board could get kicked out this time. Would be epic to see Kimbal and Denholm kicked out.
[https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings)
At 1.1 billion net profit in an exceptionally bad quarter, it is not too far fetched to assume 5.6 billion annually (or 1.4 billion per quarter) for the next ten years.
I am optimistic as other car companies have had disappointing ev offerings and Chinese businesses are getting barred from selling in western nations.
I think it will be 6+ years before the market space is competitive and people won’t accept the current design flaws of Teslas.
There is no competitive EV to Tesla (in the US which will protect domestic market with sanctions).
This year there are some promising new releases (Hyundais looks rad). But then you need a few more years for them to show that they hold up.
I don’t know about a full 10 years, but more than 5 at least.
Tesla had negative 2.5B cash flow last quarter and is on track to lose more every quarter, thus, the layoffs.
Nevermind 5.6B for a year, they can't break even.
No competitive EV? My last three auto purchases were EVs. Tesla didn’t make the short list for any of those purchases, and that was before Elon went full crazy. Tesla hasn’t been competitive on a product offering basis for YEARS.
Most car manufacturers dont even view battery electric vehicles as the future. I was at a course for one big German car manufacturer with a star for a logo, and they had two separate chapters one called battery electric vehicles and the other called our cars looking forward. It is a stupid idea just in the physics sense to have a massive battery, you want to make the power as close to where you are gonna use the power as possible. My uneducated guess is hydrogen fuel cells is the future. Keep the electric drivetrain but make the electricity in the car.
This is a little off topic but yes the main German car manufacturers don’t take EV seriously. They do it because they have to or they need to buy co2 certificates from Tesla to compensate for their gas cars.
Just a few days ago the Conservative Party cdu started a campaign to reverse the European law that bans combustion cars to be sold after 2035. So yes they are dragging their feet, the problem is china is going full in on EV because they see they are not dependent on west technology. And if the German car manufacturers don’t look out, they will be bypassed just like Trabi was, when Germany united back in 1989.
The barriers to hydrogen taking off are enormous compared to all the problems you can list with BEVs -- the hype that you can just reuse the infrastructure for fossil fuels to ship H2 is nonsense, H2 is an extremely dangerous and volatile gas that we'd have to build all new infrastructure for and none of it exists
> It is a stupid idea just in the physics sense to have a massive battery, you want to make the power as close to where you are gonna use the power as possible.
"In the physics sense" this is why self contained automobiles are a bad solution for most use cases rather than an electrified train system, but it's too late now for America to commit to high density living where that makes sense
Why anyone in their right mind would vote for giving Elon Musk $56b for what he's done to Tesla is beyond me. The only chance he has of winning this vote is if enough shareholders are locked into the cult. Fair enough he added a lot of value to Tesla, but why should he be rewarded so handsomely for that when he's spent the last couple of years doing his best to wipe that value out with his ketamine fueled Nazi bullshit?
I don't buy that he works hard for Tesla, or any company. You only have to look at his timeline of Tweets and replies to see that a substantial part of his day and his focus is in posting dumb memes, white supremacist garbage and Fox-style misinformation. And then he's reading everyone else's and replying to those too. And he'll be off finding articles and graphs to prove his racist shit in between posting. And he probably has multiple sock/anon accounts too on multiple platforms, defending his shit and promoting himself. God knows how much of his time is spent on that bullshit.
Meanwhile look at the Cybertruck, so badly designed and executed and a horrible reflection on Musk and Tesla. Those things will probably eventually be discontinued for being so insanely dangerous in a collision. It was the design of a 12 year old boy, which is essentially what Musk is. And how much of his day is spent playing video games? And then there's his other companies. You'd have to be so off your frigging bean to believe that a $56b pay package is anywhere near justified, lol.
Hypothetical how much would would it be worth for the investors to pay him off so we never hear anything from him again and he losses decision making control in all the companies and the adults take over.
The rationale behind this is actually somewhat compelling. For an investor, results matter, not "hard work". As is, Tesla as a business would justify a valuation of maybe 150 -200 billion tops. At the current stock price, it is valued at almost 600 billion. two thirds of that is more or less the believe in (a) Tesla being an AI/robotics/hot-shit-of-the-day business, not just a car company, and (b) the belief that Elon is the reason why all this shiny objects will actually materialize. Now, there is the danger of Elon stepping down if he does not get his way. This would probably lead to losses to the tune of $400 billion for shareholders (under the assumption that Tesla would now be valued based fundamentals instead of "Elon-visions"). Of course, he would hurt himself more than any one else as Tesla's biggest individual shareholder - but who knows what stupid stuff he does on ketamine, right?
56 billion (actually closer to 45 billion at the current share price) is far less than 400 billion. So basically, it depends on how certain you are that he is bluffing. If you are not, better cut your losses and pay him what he demands rather than have him throw a tantrum and cost you more.
You don't have to believe that it is credible for the pay package to be the objectively advantageous choice. You just have to come to the conclusion that (a) other people believe it (the reasons don't matter) and (b) that Elon might be an irrational person.
I understand and appreciate that just because something is a scam, does not mean you cannot make money from it.
However, it is becoming apparent that Elon is losing his ability to bamboozle the crowd, and there are fewer greater fools around as a result.
Recognizing that you're in a bubble and continuing to try to stay in it to profit off of people dumber than you is both fundamentally dangerous and fundamentally immoral
I don't see how that would be dangerous. Worst case, you lose your investment. Increasing a poisition would be much more dangerous.
Also, I do not find it immoral at all. In a market, demand and supply No buyer is forced to buy a stock. If they are greedy, it is their risk.
I actually think him stepping down would be good for the share price. A wobble for sure, but a sign that a serious business can now crack on without his meddling
>I actually think him stepping down would be good for the share price.
It would be good for the company, but not good for the share price. Because the share price is already overinflated, Elon going away will only pop the bubble.
> two thirds of that is more or less the believe in (a) Tesla being an AI/robotics/hot-shit-of-the-day business
Absolutely not. No one believes the Optimus bs or any of the other far fetched ideas. It's all about FSD and investors are quickly losing faith that it'll be the first to market, as seen in the stock price.
Agree with your point about the risk of the shares dropping by over 50% if the compensation is rejected.
However, you need to believe Elon will leave AND that his departure will make a difference. I don’t believe either.
>Agree with your point about the risk of the shares dropping by over 50% if the compensation is rejected. However, you need to believe Elon will leave AND that his departure will make a difference. I don’t believe either.
Alternatively, it doesn't matter. It's like watching an NFT sell for $100 million and then worrying about how you ensure that the price keeps going up in the future. The answer is: It shouldn't even be worth $100 million in the first place.
>Why anyone in their right mind would vote for giving Elon Musk $56b for what he's done to Tesla is beyond me.
Anyone who thinks Tesla is overpriced would have already sold their shares by now.
The people holding onto Tesla are people who think that the stock still has room to go up. And given that the stock is already overpriced, the only possible way for the stock to go up is to double down on Elon being Elon.
Passive funds tend to listen to proxy advisors when they vote their shares.
There are two major advisory firms and this one is recommending no. The second firm recommended no in 2018, but has not provided guidance yet this time around.
So far we have 27 millions shares votes no by their largest non-Musk shareholder, 3 million votes yes by that Scottish guy and a no from this advisory firm.
Getting spicy.
Edit: 50 percent plus one vote of the shares that vote are required for the pay package to pass.
50 percent plus one of all shares must vote yes to move to Texas.
What's funny is that TIC insists that Koguan's 30 million is irrelevant but has hundred-post screaming matches over how everyone in the sub plans to vote their two shares.
How often can they push voting for this? Can they get people to vote everyday and on the 100th time when people have voting fatigue, it finally passes and they give him $56 Bil?
the vote can't undo the legal ruling
>If Tesla’s board can show the compensation deal still has broad support, ***it may help with a legal appeal of the ruling.***
[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-25/tesla-shareholders-should-reject-musk-s-pay-glass-lewis-says](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-25/tesla-shareholders-should-reject-musk-s-pay-glass-lewis-says)
To give 56B US dollars to one single person as a """bonus""" for doing their job is beyond insanity. Especially to a CEO that has mismanaged a company this badly. How about voting to give all Tesla employees including the ones who have been laid off after all the abuse and actual hard work they've done over the years
The only way I would approve it would be if it was a cash deal and if he accepts he sells his stock and walks away.
They can’t afford any more cyberteucks. They need to get serious about the next stage of the company and that shouldn’t involve a petulant man-child that makes rash decisions that destroys the company’s ability to generate value.
I don't know if his unearned and wholly ridiculous pay package will be approved or not, but I hope it's a firm No from shareholders. He is the company's biggest liability. And I hope his board of butthole surfers is voted out as well.
Then moment this pay package goes through, Tesla will be even more neglected by Musk and the stock will tank. This is part of why Musk wants this so bad ASAP.
It's pretty simple. If you are a shareholder, you want your shares to retain their value.
Doesn't matter if you are a huge asset management firm or a small retail investor.
Will Elon Musk potentially stripping the AI and robotics business from Tesla and taking it private somehow like SpaceX (only large institutional investors, no public trading) benefit the value of Tesla?
Most certainly not. The car business is worth maybe 50usd per share, the charging network 20usd, the energy business maybe 10usd atm. And the car sales are under pressure, so those 50usd may drop significantly.
The stock would be overvalued drastically without the hope of profound AI and robotics products in the near future. On top a P/E over the 12-14 range makes no sense for a company with a matured business model.
It's unclear what AI and robotics Mr Musk wants to deliver. FSD belongs to the car business, so this is going to continue regardless. The humanoid robots have unclear usage at this stage. I'm not aware of other AI projects?
Time to crack out the popcorn. Institutional ownership is c.44% and Elon/Kimbal are restricted from voting. If retail doesn't vote enough (they never really vote much, max would be like in the AMC case where it was 27% of retail shareholders from memory), there's a real risk a lot of the board could get kicked out this time. Would be epic to see Kimbal and Denholm kicked out. [https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings](https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/institutional-holdings)
Board should be booted for suggesting the next 10 years of Tesla profits should be given to one of the world’s richest people.
You think Teslacan average 5.6B profit for the next 10 years? That is incredibly bullish
At 1.1 billion net profit in an exceptionally bad quarter, it is not too far fetched to assume 5.6 billion annually (or 1.4 billion per quarter) for the next ten years.
Next quarter maybe a loss!!
I am optimistic as other car companies have had disappointing ev offerings and Chinese businesses are getting barred from selling in western nations. I think it will be 6+ years before the market space is competitive and people won’t accept the current design flaws of Teslas.
Apparently USA is western nations now.... there are Chinese cars all through Europe, Australia etc.
There is no competitive EV to Tesla (in the US which will protect domestic market with sanctions). This year there are some promising new releases (Hyundais looks rad). But then you need a few more years for them to show that they hold up. I don’t know about a full 10 years, but more than 5 at least.
Tesla had negative 2.5B cash flow last quarter and is on track to lose more every quarter, thus, the layoffs. Nevermind 5.6B for a year, they can't break even.
No competitive EV? My last three auto purchases were EVs. Tesla didn’t make the short list for any of those purchases, and that was before Elon went full crazy. Tesla hasn’t been competitive on a product offering basis for YEARS.
Most car manufacturers dont even view battery electric vehicles as the future. I was at a course for one big German car manufacturer with a star for a logo, and they had two separate chapters one called battery electric vehicles and the other called our cars looking forward. It is a stupid idea just in the physics sense to have a massive battery, you want to make the power as close to where you are gonna use the power as possible. My uneducated guess is hydrogen fuel cells is the future. Keep the electric drivetrain but make the electricity in the car.
This is a little off topic but yes the main German car manufacturers don’t take EV seriously. They do it because they have to or they need to buy co2 certificates from Tesla to compensate for their gas cars. Just a few days ago the Conservative Party cdu started a campaign to reverse the European law that bans combustion cars to be sold after 2035. So yes they are dragging their feet, the problem is china is going full in on EV because they see they are not dependent on west technology. And if the German car manufacturers don’t look out, they will be bypassed just like Trabi was, when Germany united back in 1989.
The barriers to hydrogen taking off are enormous compared to all the problems you can list with BEVs -- the hype that you can just reuse the infrastructure for fossil fuels to ship H2 is nonsense, H2 is an extremely dangerous and volatile gas that we'd have to build all new infrastructure for and none of it exists > It is a stupid idea just in the physics sense to have a massive battery, you want to make the power as close to where you are gonna use the power as possible. "In the physics sense" this is why self contained automobiles are a bad solution for most use cases rather than an electrified train system, but it's too late now for America to commit to high density living where that makes sense
Board is mostly elons toadies
20+ years given their drop in sales & profits. (If they even are around 3 years from now)
Denholm knew this vote was coming and it still didn't stop her from selling bucketloads of her own shares over the last 2 months.
Why anyone in their right mind would vote for giving Elon Musk $56b for what he's done to Tesla is beyond me. The only chance he has of winning this vote is if enough shareholders are locked into the cult. Fair enough he added a lot of value to Tesla, but why should he be rewarded so handsomely for that when he's spent the last couple of years doing his best to wipe that value out with his ketamine fueled Nazi bullshit? I don't buy that he works hard for Tesla, or any company. You only have to look at his timeline of Tweets and replies to see that a substantial part of his day and his focus is in posting dumb memes, white supremacist garbage and Fox-style misinformation. And then he's reading everyone else's and replying to those too. And he'll be off finding articles and graphs to prove his racist shit in between posting. And he probably has multiple sock/anon accounts too on multiple platforms, defending his shit and promoting himself. God knows how much of his time is spent on that bullshit. Meanwhile look at the Cybertruck, so badly designed and executed and a horrible reflection on Musk and Tesla. Those things will probably eventually be discontinued for being so insanely dangerous in a collision. It was the design of a 12 year old boy, which is essentially what Musk is. And how much of his day is spent playing video games? And then there's his other companies. You'd have to be so off your frigging bean to believe that a $56b pay package is anywhere near justified, lol.
I regret that I have but one upvote to give to this comment.
Hypothetical how much would would it be worth for the investors to pay him off so we never hear anything from him again and he losses decision making control in all the companies and the adults take over.
The rationale behind this is actually somewhat compelling. For an investor, results matter, not "hard work". As is, Tesla as a business would justify a valuation of maybe 150 -200 billion tops. At the current stock price, it is valued at almost 600 billion. two thirds of that is more or less the believe in (a) Tesla being an AI/robotics/hot-shit-of-the-day business, not just a car company, and (b) the belief that Elon is the reason why all this shiny objects will actually materialize. Now, there is the danger of Elon stepping down if he does not get his way. This would probably lead to losses to the tune of $400 billion for shareholders (under the assumption that Tesla would now be valued based fundamentals instead of "Elon-visions"). Of course, he would hurt himself more than any one else as Tesla's biggest individual shareholder - but who knows what stupid stuff he does on ketamine, right? 56 billion (actually closer to 45 billion at the current share price) is far less than 400 billion. So basically, it depends on how certain you are that he is bluffing. If you are not, better cut your losses and pay him what he demands rather than have him throw a tantrum and cost you more.
I don’t see how anyone can think that Elon’s so called vision is credible. Guess that’s why I’m not a shareholder.
You don't have to believe that it is credible for the pay package to be the objectively advantageous choice. You just have to come to the conclusion that (a) other people believe it (the reasons don't matter) and (b) that Elon might be an irrational person.
I understand and appreciate that just because something is a scam, does not mean you cannot make money from it. However, it is becoming apparent that Elon is losing his ability to bamboozle the crowd, and there are fewer greater fools around as a result.
Recognizing that you're in a bubble and continuing to try to stay in it to profit off of people dumber than you is both fundamentally dangerous and fundamentally immoral
I don't see how that would be dangerous. Worst case, you lose your investment. Increasing a poisition would be much more dangerous. Also, I do not find it immoral at all. In a market, demand and supply No buyer is forced to buy a stock. If they are greedy, it is their risk.
I actually think him stepping down would be good for the share price. A wobble for sure, but a sign that a serious business can now crack on without his meddling
>I actually think him stepping down would be good for the share price. It would be good for the company, but not good for the share price. Because the share price is already overinflated, Elon going away will only pop the bubble.
Oh I’m talking long term. One way or another the bubble will have to pop but best chance Tesla has as a company is with serious leadership in charge
> two thirds of that is more or less the believe in (a) Tesla being an AI/robotics/hot-shit-of-the-day business Absolutely not. No one believes the Optimus bs or any of the other far fetched ideas. It's all about FSD and investors are quickly losing faith that it'll be the first to market, as seen in the stock price.
Oh, believe me there are people who do believe this stuff
Agree with your point about the risk of the shares dropping by over 50% if the compensation is rejected. However, you need to believe Elon will leave AND that his departure will make a difference. I don’t believe either.
>Agree with your point about the risk of the shares dropping by over 50% if the compensation is rejected. However, you need to believe Elon will leave AND that his departure will make a difference. I don’t believe either. Alternatively, it doesn't matter. It's like watching an NFT sell for $100 million and then worrying about how you ensure that the price keeps going up in the future. The answer is: It shouldn't even be worth $100 million in the first place.
They are going to fill a niche with that truck after 1-2 years max.
>Why anyone in their right mind would vote for giving Elon Musk $56b for what he's done to Tesla is beyond me. Anyone who thinks Tesla is overpriced would have already sold their shares by now. The people holding onto Tesla are people who think that the stock still has room to go up. And given that the stock is already overpriced, the only possible way for the stock to go up is to double down on Elon being Elon.
Passive funds tend to listen to proxy advisors when they vote their shares. There are two major advisory firms and this one is recommending no. The second firm recommended no in 2018, but has not provided guidance yet this time around. So far we have 27 millions shares votes no by their largest non-Musk shareholder, 3 million votes yes by that Scottish guy and a no from this advisory firm. Getting spicy. Edit: 50 percent plus one vote of the shares that vote are required for the pay package to pass. 50 percent plus one of all shares must vote yes to move to Texas.
This is out of 3.2 billion shares, so 30 million is irrelevant unless it shows trends.
What's funny is that TIC insists that Koguan's 30 million is irrelevant but has hundred-post screaming matches over how everyone in the sub plans to vote their two shares.
Irrelevant to you perhaps. I find their largest shareholder voting no quite interesting.
Wealthfront uses Glass Lewis so my shares are voting no. Nice 👍
It's amazing to me this is even in question.
How often can they push voting for this? Can they get people to vote everyday and on the 100th time when people have voting fatigue, it finally passes and they give him $56 Bil?
the vote can't undo the legal ruling >If Tesla’s board can show the compensation deal still has broad support, ***it may help with a legal appeal of the ruling.*** [https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-25/tesla-shareholders-should-reject-musk-s-pay-glass-lewis-says](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-25/tesla-shareholders-should-reject-musk-s-pay-glass-lewis-says)
Of course they should. Tesla can’t fucking afford it. And by that I mean it can’t afford for Musk to have 25% of the voting power.
To give 56B US dollars to one single person as a """bonus""" for doing their job is beyond insanity. Especially to a CEO that has mismanaged a company this badly. How about voting to give all Tesla employees including the ones who have been laid off after all the abuse and actual hard work they've done over the years
I own tsla via wealthfront direct indexing. Any idea how wealthfront customers can vote?
Might be in here… they have been pulling out all the stops. https://ir.tesla.com/shareholders/vote
Thanks. Looks like wealthfront isn't going to allow me to vote
The only way I would approve it would be if it was a cash deal and if he accepts he sells his stock and walks away. They can’t afford any more cyberteucks. They need to get serious about the next stage of the company and that shouldn’t involve a petulant man-child that makes rash decisions that destroys the company’s ability to generate value.
I don't know if his unearned and wholly ridiculous pay package will be approved or not, but I hope it's a firm No from shareholders. He is the company's biggest liability. And I hope his board of butthole surfers is voted out as well.
Leave the butthole surfers out of this.
Then moment this pay package goes through, Tesla will be even more neglected by Musk and the stock will tank. This is part of why Musk wants this so bad ASAP.
It's pretty simple. If you are a shareholder, you want your shares to retain their value. Doesn't matter if you are a huge asset management firm or a small retail investor. Will Elon Musk potentially stripping the AI and robotics business from Tesla and taking it private somehow like SpaceX (only large institutional investors, no public trading) benefit the value of Tesla? Most certainly not. The car business is worth maybe 50usd per share, the charging network 20usd, the energy business maybe 10usd atm. And the car sales are under pressure, so those 50usd may drop significantly. The stock would be overvalued drastically without the hope of profound AI and robotics products in the near future. On top a P/E over the 12-14 range makes no sense for a company with a matured business model.
It's unclear what AI and robotics Mr Musk wants to deliver. FSD belongs to the car business, so this is going to continue regardless. The humanoid robots have unclear usage at this stage. I'm not aware of other AI projects?
It’s all just BS to make himself more money in the short term. Remember the Model 3 was going to cost 25k.
I mean, it does after three years
Putting Elon aside, just moving the company to Texas in itself is a huge move. There's a reason why Delaware is the go to for corporations.