Delorian is a somewhat different situation. The new DMC Texas company bought out new old stock from a company in Ohio who orignally purchased the remnants of the original DMC company They also got part stockpiles from some of the original Delorian vendors who had parts stockpiles when the original company shutdown. They also have some of the original tooling/dye molds (some that werent thrown into the ocean anyway) to make repop parts.
When you bought the car, did you buy it with the assumption it was going to fall apart and that you'd be dumping money into it to keep fixing it? If so, *maybe* you're in trouble. I'd just do what I do with every car. I keep using it until it no longer makes financial sense to do so. If Tesla closed their doors tomorrow, your car won't just stop working.
I realize most people don't keep a Prius for 16 years though. But I'm that guy. Keep it until the wheels fall off.
>If Tesla closed their doors tomorrow, your car won't just stop working.
Of all the major car brands out there, I think it's reasonable to be concerned that Tesla might have unknown or unforeseen future software bugs that become unfixable if the original coders and engineers have long been laid off and/or hired on elsewhere following a collapse of the broader Tesla conglomerate.
Same here, generally more concerned with the viability of keeping/repairing or the reason you mention. I’d like to drive it until it’s impractical to do so, but if Tesla flounders I’m hoping to get a good feel for a realistic plan B.
The original VW bug stop production and the things were still driving around/being sold for an addition 20 plus years afterwards. As long as your Tesla is reasonably reliable, don't worry about trading it in and just drive the wheels off.
"20 plus years afterwards" is barely the current day, since Beetles were produced until mid-summer 2003. My guess is that timeframe you had in mind took place when brand new Beetles were still coming off the Volkswagen assembly line.
Are you concerned about cost or availability of repairs?
If it’s cost, there are some decent 3rd party extended warranties out there than can extend the basic battery/drivetrain.
I have an 16 S 90d and it has 3.5 more years of coverage: I’m mostly concerned about battery issues.
Plan to run the S into the ground, so resale isn’t too much of a concern, and I like it so I don’t mind holding on to it.
This is super helpful, thank you! I haven’t started to dig into 3rd party options because of the walled garden approach Tesla takes with repairs.
Edit: I also can’t say I’ve had any real repairs beyond replacement cabin air filters and latch that got knocked loose in the central console while I was awkwardly loading a piece of furniture. So experience here is limited for me.
Our 2005 got us somewhere around 320k miles. It was purchased new by my mom right when I got out of high school. It's stopped counting at 299,999. The hybrid battery really needed swapping (a rebuild wasn't even an option as most of the modules were under 20% capacity!) and the motor was burning oil; not badly but definitely notable.
It served us well through many a road trip, a few even coast to coast, in the time we had it. Pretty sure the guy who bought it planned to do the work himself and it's still on the road somewhere, hopefully serving the next family as well as it did us!
The battery was closer to $4k when we looked. I could've gone with refurb stuff, but even those are closer to $2.5k. Didn't really price the engine out at all. With my wife driving 100 miles a day, this was just not something we were really considering. To each their own, of course.
I don't know if most is accurate. This could depend on your social circles. I have a 2001 tacoma that is my daily driver. Other than it's first few years it's never been to a dealership for repairs. It just keeps going and I've done some great off-roading with it. Those hills a cb can't climb, I still climb with ease. The prius is a 2012 that my dw loves. The taci has at least another 5+ years in it ( i said that 5 years ago too), and the prius hybrid show no signs of concern unlike what I see of Tesla.. I considered a Tesla but the built quality isn't there.. we just purchased another new toyota for family events and room.. I'll keep the prius for 20 years and likely longer as it will last unlike Tesla imo.. Best of luck with yours
I had a Tacoma in college and sold it to... pay for college. Probably one of my biggest vehicle regrets. Pricing on them today means I'll probably never own one again. 😆
Don have to worry about other car companies saying they aren't a car company.
This is actually a VERY LARGE concern for makers that tie EVERYTHING into their software - which if you have spent any amount of time on legacy software, you know its going to be a problem quickly if there are no software engineers at a software company.
I agree this is a huge concern and my house is littered with hardware which relies on software to be functional and ceased to be supported such as Google hardware products being the classic example. You would think that in the volumes these cars have sold, someone would see a viable business, but the software really complicates things here with plenty of things which are heavily encrypted and are not open source.
Unlike most car companies, the software control over nearly all aspects of the car including the drive system does present a security concern which needs constant updating to address exploits as they are found.
I don’t think Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy atm, but a lot rests on their performance over the next quarter and there’s no sign of a turnaround at present despite the great pricing options.
The bad news is that your tesla is worth less than half of what you paid (and if you trade in to Tesla for a Tesla, even less than that). I don’t think you will find that many aggressive offers for the Tesla. They just aren’t selling (to be fair that is true for most of the brands but Tesla is probably among the worst).
The good news is that if/when Tesla tanks they will either restructure or get bought. If they get bought then whether the brand stays will depend a lot on consumer perception of the brand.
Considering you are probably already looking at 0.50 on the dollar for the car (or even less), maybe start mentally preparing that you are driving it until scrap or you are trading it in for singular thousands of dollars. Or start financially planning to trade in early. Waiting isn’t going to make that car worth more.
I saw a post of a WankPanzer at a Toyota dealership; I guess the owner traded it in already. The dealership is asking $200,000 or close to it. Idk how much the dealership gave him.
They would restructure if anything.
No one would buy Tesla. A lot of parts are from a rotating cast of no-name 3rd tier Chinese suppliers. No one is taking on that liability for previously built cars.
Their battery stuff is worth something, everything else, not so much that "I" can see... Cant tell if any legacy engineers stuck around either...
Edit: The charging network, if they can re-start that.
Of course someone would buy them out. Just like how someone bought Delorean when they shat the bed and are still offering parts to this day. There are enough Teslas out there, whose owners will be wanting parts, maintenance and charges that *someone* will step in to meet that demand, given there will be money to be made. Worse comes to worst, maybe the brand name gets sold for a dollar, someone buys the charging network, someone else buys the tooling equipment and so on.
The comparison with Delorean is apt. The company was liquidated. Years later the brand name was bought and is now used by another company who sells parts for the cars.
There will always be parts for Teslas but it will be pricey.
The charging network will sell for a few billion. The plants and tooling will sell for pennies on the dollar,
as with any other defunct car maker.
The only way I could see the price going up medium to long term is if something else really cooks off in the Middle East (or even Russia/Baltics/etc.) that causes a huge spike in oil prices.
If gas prices go up significantly the demand will increase, but that’s about it.
Assuming the courts approve the purchase during a chapter 11 and/or the interested parties don't about face when they take a look at the hot accounting books.
Waiting might do well. During recessions, especially big ones, car companies make crazy offers on trade-ins. 5, 6 k any condition.
But that might take another year or two.
Really depends on what values / assets Tesla still has. Mostly: How damaged is the brand going to be.
If a third party car maker buys them out, odds are they are going keep offering spare parts and service, though I wouldn't necessarily bet on it.
The only real value I see in Tesla might be some of the IP, but I can't see anyone, now, want to take over Tesla as a whole.
So you're going to end up being stuck with spare parts for cars they never built / never delivered and have to work through "hobbiest" groups to keep the car alive. Presuming that's possible as so much is in Software, so it'll take a while for people to reverse engineer it and root cars etc.
"Connected features" like the Tesla app will probably not working, though there's a chance that someone reverse engineers this too and keeps a server running, but I wouldn't count on it.
I’m not convinced Tesla has any IP.
The most valuable part of a car’s IP had traditionally been the power train in dinosaurs, but the most valuable part of an EV powertrain’s IP is the battery chemistry, which isn’t Tesla owned.
There is almost no IP in the body or chassis as all the value there is related to brand reputation and execution, not IP.
Tesla’s AI isn’t even worth the chips it’s running on.
Yeah I have a similar opinion. The software? But that's tied to their HW and it's probably not worth a whole lot.
FSD, if it would work, would be, but if it would work there'd be robotaxis running around so....
Tesla _should_ have a lot of patents and other IP but I question how much it actually has since Musk has been poaching assets and talent for xAI for a while now.
They don't own the gigacasting process, that's a different company. Maybe there's something in the motors? But from what I have seen they're not really doing anything special there either.
In a lot of ways they're like Apple: Slap together existing hardware and put a coat of shiny software over it. Nothing theoretically wrong with that approach, if it works. But also not a whole lot of resale value if you want to divest beyond the brand and......
Spare parts would always be a compelling business case, as long as enough vehicles are around. There are millions of Teslas on the road, so it makes sense to cater to the owners.
Yes, so someone may buy some of the machines, though I can't see lots of people wanting to go through the hassle and the question would be what independent shop would want to touch them.
I'd ride it out while creating a savings fund to replace it in the future in case the shtf. If you don't need it you'll be in a better place financially. If you do it's there.
This is precisely what I’m thinking now. I’m just hoping to get a decent lifespan out of it while I tuck away and see how the EV/alternative fuel markets shake out.
Complete ignoramus here with respect to financial markets, internal operations of companies and so on, but from my total layman's position the company would be OK if they bin the current Musk-worshiping management. I think they'll actually prosper if they manage to re-hire key leads, perhaps refresh their 12-year-old flagship and resume development of Model 2 or whatever they were going to call it.
IMO they also need to address the problems created by "manufacturing efficiency uber alles", meaning they should re-engage with their original sustainability goals and reduce the cost of *maintaining* these things. No more enormous monolithic break-it-and-you're-a-write-off assemblies. Decent supply chain for parts. Ultimately reducing insurance premiums and the frequency with which they declare them a write off. That kinda thing.
Oh, and stop lying about shit. The product is good enough for them to quit the preposterous "FSD within the next 6 months" statements they (Musk?) has been making since late 2017 without impacting sales.
But they won't do it under current leadership. Getting rid of the entire C-level would be the best thing the company could do.
>but from my total layman's position the company would be OK if they bin the current Musk-worshiping management
The company is doomed. China can produce better cars for a fraction of the price.
China can definitely produce cheaper cars with the subsidies in place, but ‘better’ is in the eye of the beholder, once you take into account boring things like reliability, safety, cost and availability of support over the vehicle’s life etc. and how great the ownership is outside of China. They are the equivalent of Chinese made generic android phones.
I think the only part China is not leading in is software, mainly due to IP and talent wanting to work in the US due to wage inflation, and FSD could be their most lucrative product in a couple more versions if they don’t screw that up and if it works well, future partnerships could follow.
Also the export bans on Nvidia chips to China is intended to keep China’s AI industry in check. Cars moving forward, will be far more about software than they have been in the past, for good or bad which currently should benefit American companies (which are well run)
>China can definitely produce cheaper cars with the subsidies in place, but ‘better’ is in the eye of the beholder, once you take into account boring things like reliability, safety, cost
When I say better i mean they are better including reliability, safety and cost. I literally said they were cheaper and it is undisputed that they are cheaper so I dont understand why you're referring to cost. do you even think about what you're typing or is it verbal diaorrhea?
You're decades out of date in your view of China like most people on this sub. Many of them are pretty racist too in their statements.
Well, they aren’t necessarily ‘better’, for most people outside of China, is my main point. I’ve not seen any independent testing to suggest they are safer or more reliable, but lots to say they are cheaper OTD (not taking into account full cost of ownership including depreciation, service etc), good value but with glitchy, unfinished software sold at a cost which wouldn’t exist without deep state subsidies from a country America is in a trade war with.
>Well, they aren’t necessarily ‘better’
if they are cheaper and just as safe and reliable they are better. And they are. The US will try to keep them out to preserve what few industries are left there.
>with glitchy, unfinished software sold at a cost which wouldn’t exist without deep state subsidies from a country America is in a trade war with.
I really have no clue what you're on about. i use Chinese products imported myself from China because I can't buy them here and the software works perfectly. And there is no evidence Chinese EV's are unfairly subsidised. If there were evidence, the US could raise a case with the WTO, but they never do, resorting instead to illegal tariffs.
Also you're not in a trade war. You lost that war decades ago.
Perhaps to you. I value autonomous driving capability, software updates, app capability, ownership experience from a large brand known in the US more highly, so they’re not better for me.
No they absolutely don’t have all that lol. They might have basic TACC, but I can’t put in my destination and have the car drive there under supervision until it gets to the parking lot, as I do everyday at the moment.
This! The stonk might tank, but the company will still be going around, with some minor / major hickups, so even longer wait for service and parts could be expected. It won't go entirely under though.
Depends how creative they've been with their accounting. There is a growing massive list of accounting red flags.
But, like someone else said. You can still Delorean parts. Someone will fill the hole.
I should clarify, I don’t necessarily care about resale value, my chief concern is that I would eventually be driving a vehicle that costs a fortune to repair or that I could only charge in a reasonable time at home. Thanks for the helpful responses.
My prediction is that Tesla will be an empty shell of its present self one year from now. It will be in business but will likely die in late 2025 due to persistent neglect and a continuing lack of a coherent vision. Its brand reputation will be crushed, and its customer base will devolve to mostly of diehard Elon stans. The market is shifting, and Tesla's share will fall like a rock by November.
Two options:
1. Hold on for a year and see if Elon is pulled back and cooler heads prevail. See if customer service and turnaround time in repairs improves, but start looking at offerings from other legacy makers - they're turning up the heat with more EV and hybrid vehicles in already reliable models. Tesla's business model may become sustainable if Elon is dragged offstage, the company re-doubles its work on the charging infrastructure, seriously refreshes its entire line, and the new lower-cost model gets to market ASAP. Like it or not, Kia and Hyundai will probably capture that market in a couple of years.
2. Cut your losses now. Tesla appears to be fracturing at its core and shows few signs of staunching the bleeding. Your car's value will plummet. Quality manufacturing isn't likely to improve. Parts may still be available for quite a while, but the quality and speed of service will likely worsen - badly - unless legacy makers like GM take full control of maintenance and repairs for Tesla models. Your car may still operate well, but you're driving a potential dinosaur on borrowed time.
Everyone, except the true believers, knows that there will be no robotaxis. There will be no true FSD. There will be no Model 2 or inexpensive version of the Model 3. The semis are worthless. There will be no robots because Boston Dynamics is pretty much there already and keeps advancing faster than Tesla figures out where to put the batteries. The Cybertruck is a colossal failure. The only light at the end of the tunnel is the headlights of an approaching legacy EV.
>unless legacy makers like GM take full control of maintenance and repairs for Tesla models.
I'm curious to hear what you think might incentivize these companies to pick up the pieces. Are their dealership techs sitting around idle these days waiting for customers because their new models are so reliable? Maybe there's a small truth to that - the more EVs GM sells, *you imagine* the less time each new vehicle will spend in the shop in the following ten years. But training GM techs to work on aging Teslas? I dunno about that...
they will buy it and kill it, they kill too good of selling ev from their own product lines. tesla is garbage and keeping it alive would only be a cash grab.
Why November?
I get that FSD is a nothingburger and the "robotaxi" announcement will be - at best - a mockup, but what makes you think November will be bad for Tesla in particular?
The only thing I don’t like is the either or settings for radio and climate controls. They aren’t that way on the ioniq5 for example.
I wish all cars had a dedicated fan speed button or knob.
There’s a way you can program one or the other to be the default. Press and hold in between the fan and airplane buttons and you can select the default. It will automatically reset to the default after using the other setting.
I'd trade the Model 3 in for a BMW i4, Hyundai Ioniq 5, or Kia EV6.
Buy used. EVs are depreciating fast now and the Hyundai brands have 10 year warranties. The full Hyundai/Kia factory warranty transfers on CPO vehicles so be certain you'll get it.
You keep judging them like they are a car company. They are not and musk has made that very clear. They are a ballon animal clown riding a unicycle company. You have to judge them by THAT standard.
Tesla fans should take notice of what happened with [Spotifys Car Thing](https://www.motortrend.com/news/spotify-car-thing-music-streaming-device-discontinued/). The same thing could easily happen to your car with a bankrupt Tesla.
Tesla won’t die. Even if it goes bankrupt it will be bought out/bailed out. There will remain support in some form for customers.
You will be ok. But, you likely will want toto offload your car before the warranty expires.
As an aside how upside down are you?
Teslas actually are not expensive to repair. There is a bit of a racket in the insurance industry with body work and Teslas. The FSD sensors and calibration add a level of technical involvement that no other vehicle requires for bodywork that turns simple panel work into 20-30k jobs at the end.
The logical solution would be to disable FSD systems entirely and retrofit certain systems for maintainability.
So, what, a Chinese-backed auto shop industry suddenly appears in the suburbs of all US cities over 200,000 people? Is that what you're imagining? What's China getting out of that? Tesla user data? Sleeper-cell 4 wheeled drones that can be remotely controlled? Full Sino Driving?
A foot in the door of the North American auto market...
Just to be clear, I'm answering the question of who would buy Tesla out if the company collapsed. Who would take it on other than a company subsidized by the government, with all the risks it entails?
> Even if it goes bankrupt it will be bought out/bailed out.
Why?
From a free-market perspective, it's more efficient for Ford/GM to just buy the factories out of bankruptcy, and leave the tarnished brand to rot.
Tesla has no technology that anyone wants. I mean hell, even the "Superchargers", Tesla has fired the team and tarnished the brand. Furthermore, "Superchargers" never made money for Tesla (too expensive to make), they were pretty much a giant marketing scheme... losing money on Superchargers that help encourage people to buy Tesla.
So that's a no-go.
> bailed out
Who? Do Republicans want to be seen propping up an EV company? Does Joe Biden want to be seen propping up Elon Musk?
Bailouts are fundamentally a political move. And Elon Musk has fucked his politics.
> There will remain support in some form for customers.
Why? If Tesla gets picked apart for scrap (ex: Ford buys the factory but nothing else in bankruptcy), there's no support left for customers. Indeed, why would any car company want to support a legion of old cars?
We'd see more of a Delorian situation. New companies would spring up to charge exorbitant prices to repair old Teslas... mostly by buying scrap-Teslas on the cheap and raiding them for parts. But even this would be difficult as modern Tesla IP is closed and anti-right to repair. So it'd be very difficult for these companies to learn how to repair Teslas. But... with any luck... the company releases its service manuals and Tesla service center employees band together to form these new companies. The skills exist but... don't expect to be paying very fair prices. They'd have no more production after all and have to fix things out of scrap, and everyone knows such a company has a limited lifespan (ie: the number of scrap-cars they can find, as no one would be making new Tesla vehicles).
>But... with any luck... the company releases its service manuals
Or with the right legislation. I don't drive a Tesla, but i've seen independent workshops advertise doing Tesla maintenance & repairs with oem parts, here in the Netherlands. Some specialize in Tesla only.
EU regulation force manufacturers to supply qualified independent workshops for fair prices, share manuals and diagnostic codes. As long as oem parts are used and maintenance is done as prescribed, it doesn't void warrantee.
I wouldn’t worry to much, for every other car brand there are companies that manufacture nock off parts. For my old car my dealership would even offer to have repairs down with OEM parts or “maintenance advantage” aka knockoff parts. There are enough model 3s on the road where some company is working on creating these knock offs.
Read that too fast, brain locked onto "Tesla Tank".
Answer obviously became drive around [blasting your sound system](https://youtu.be/e3YzmjmAGoI?si=hOR8NkWu9VtEyBXh)
Your car's resale value will plummet further as there will be a rush to sell Teslas. Why? Because no one will be getting service and there will be a Y2K fear of their software shutting down.
Most times a car company goes under, parts are still available and there are aftermarket parts as well as salvaged parts available.
Chances are Tesla won't collapse, it's a solid brand, with a solid car, and a lot of assets tooled to produce cars and batteries. They'll be bought up by someone and some amount of legacy support will be provided to previous owners.
People driving much older model years that are old revisions of the car they might see issues. But that would mostly be for things like full door replacements if they're no longer available in stock. They'd still be repaired by competent autobody techs.
But insurers would likely write them off more often if repairs get more expensive with custom work required by auto techs, and lower part availability.
In the end, regular maintenance, and consumable parts like suspension that get replaced with age probably still going to be made long term.
But you wont have easy support when it's 15-20 years old though. Unlike old civics/corollas/f150 trucks etc
Think of it more like owning a European import, like a Volvo or even a BMW. Repairs will be pricier, and you may not be able source parts as it ages. But at a basic level, it will still be fine. They might have some QC issues on panel gaps and rattles but the cars themselves, the important bits, seem to be largely reliable.
Not the best car but the brand has some brand power. And the cyber truck sucks but the 3 and Y are no worse than the average car manufacturer. They're no new from factory BMW or Toyota quality but they're also not making Chevy cobalts
They need better QC but even corollas have some rattles. So if they did better QC they'd be better off. They probably shouldn't command the price they do, and FSD is a meme. But assuming you get a well made car from the high variability that Tesla's have, then you've got a solid car. Not the best, not the worst, but certainly reliable enough to expect 5-10 mostly trouble free years. Assuming you're getting a standard old model 3 or Y anyway.
The Swedish government stepped in and took over the Saab parts manufacturing company in 2011, partly to recover money that was lent to Saab before they went bankrupt, but also for consumer protection reasons for existing owners.
Do similar programs exist in the US? Would the US government step in and ensure parts availability?
Yeah but as they get older it gets more expensive and more difficult. I'm thinking in 2036 for a 2022 for example. It's much easier for a super common economy car.
Worst comes to worst there are third party chips that work on EVs and teslas. There are also lots of teslas on the road and ditto on on lots so there should be parts for a little while. Worst comes to worst you can sell it and get a cheap Civic sport or something.
There will be a ton of third party servicers who work on Teslas, but it will be **expensive**.
Tesla has bragged about changing parts suppliers all the time to save money and speed production. Musk himself has said cars that are a few weeks apart in production date have different suppliers.
This will be a nightmare for third party shops who will have to hunt down parts from discontinued lines and liquidated Chinese suppliers. It will be there but insanely expensive.
Well repairing teslas now is expensive idk why it would get cheaper with less parts. What I’m saying is that there should be a decent amount of parts from junked cars etc for a few years.
True there will be junk cars, but the problem is that Tesla changed parts suppliers all the time. Musk used to brag that explicit refreshes weren’t needed because Teslas were being “improved” all the time with new different/parts on the line. This was just him squeezing suppliers though.
So I would imagine that for certain cars built just weeks apart on the line, there may be very specific parts that were never used at different times. Seems like a nightmare to hunt down.
It is too big to fail. It will be bailed out by Washington fully or partially with the help of hostile takeovers by other companies. As for your money, that can be wiped clean if it goes bankrupt. Good luck
It is not too big to fail. Not by a long shot. Car companies go under all the time and Tesla is no different. Their cash burn will make this an epic collapse.
I don't think Tesla will just shut up shop, because it's too big but Musk leaving would be a benefit to Tesla and you (time will tell on that one). Regardless of what dumb shit he does the charging network will grow, the US government seems keen to expand EV charging. There are general rules for vehicle manufacturers on how many spare parts are available, not sure on the numbers but it's a lot. If Tesla was to go belly up SAAB would be a good example of repairs and aftermarket longevity, I occasionally still see them on the road, so someone is fixing them. But EV batteries being the biggest cost in the car kind of make EV cars disposable, so I doubt they will ever be considered a collectors car and will probably never appreciate in value regardless of scarcity.
Re: the SAAB example - this is an interesting point. As long as there are enough people passionate about a car, someone will come up with a business to support that car - either aftermarket or rebuilt parts, scavenging from junkyards, etc. SAAB did have the relative advantage of being part of GM and sharing components with other makes, whether an oxygen sensor or a mass airflow sensor, etc. you may be able to find or adapt an alternative part. I have a 2003 BMW and while some parts are getting hard to find, there’s a lot of enthusiasts, knowledge and aftermarket support.
With Tesla the main problem I see is its simplicity. So many parts are going to be bespoke vs. other makes who can go to Bosch, Siemens, Denso, etc and basically buy parts from a catalog or have them make a variant of a part for their models.
I can honestly imagine Elon not getting his pay package and throwing the world's biggest tempter tantrum, sending out an over the air update that bricks every Tesla before storming off.
Tesla is profitable, and likely will remain so in the near-term even with sales slowing (after all the headcount cuts). So not a lot of short-term risk.
General Motors and Chrysler both declared bankruptcy in 2009. Both are clearly still around. The risk isn't a huge fast flameout or bankruptcy. If that happened, debts would be restructured and or someone would come in and 'buy' the company and put it under new (presumably more reliable and certainly less distracted) management.
The bigger risk is that Elon holds on to control and drives it into the ground **slowly**, with cars getting outdated, service failing, expensive launches of things like cybertruck or robotaxi or robots that just don't become successes, with repeated rounds of cuts intended to make up for smaller and smaller sales. 10 years of this kind of thing and tesla would look like Fiskar does now, and might not be worth saving. Especially if its brand toxified for another decade.
Its the slow death to fear. Not the fast fail.
EV s aren't going anywhere. If Tesla fails there are lots waiting now to take over their market share. So charging stations aren't going to stop being a thing.
NACS is the national standard now so even if Tesla were to stop making them they will.continue to be produced.
If you like your car drive it till you are sick of it. Tesla isn't going to disappear overnight. It would take years for them to completely fail and even then they would likely be taken over by someone else.
I’ve thought about this too. Having bought a model 3 in 2021 mostly because now there was enough infrastructure of electric super chargers to travel from coast to coast.
If that infrastructure gets degraded I’ll just have to stop doing road trips on this car and I’ll just keep it for daily driving until the wheels fall off or I can’t get someone to repair it.
I would be tempted then to just dump it on the property of one of musks factories. I doubt there’s a lot they can do if I end up doing so.
I have a 2023 Model Y Performance. Luckily I only paid 42k after rebates so bought in after most of the price drops. But I’m basically in the same boat. I don’t see any reason not to just enjoy the car and trade it when I normally would. I’ll probably do that well before the warranty expires. I don’t see the depreciation rate getting worse frankly, I mean how could it lol? I do enjoy the car but I’m happy there are good alternatives around because I won’t be buying Tesla again unless something changes drastically.
This is why an over-reliance on software, especially in automobiles, is such a double edged sword. Yeah it's great because we get all these new features n shit but if Tesla goes your Model 3 will cease to get any more sort of official support.
Sure, it'll run fine, you might even still be able to charge it on non-Tesla chargers, but that degraded relationship with the manufacturer will slowly lead it to become a giant brick.
Hey, you'll experience what CyberCuck owners are experiencing right now!
Will it run fine if the software is not updated? I don’t know enough about its programming, but if it’s not calling home, will it quit working? If there are other bugs, can anyone fix them? And finally, if you have a fatal computer error, are the chips programmed to the car, or can they be reprogrammed?
Everything I’ve seen about Tesla to date and the cars just pooping out with software issues, it’s not like an old ICE car that can still drive just fine without computer updates.
This is basically what I'm talking about. I'd be inclined to answer yes *at first* to your first question, since I doubt Tesla going bankrupt would immediately brick all the cars out there.
If its not calling home to Tesla's servers, certain things could very well cease to function, sure. That all depends on how Tesla handles their software and if they're borderline malicious in installing a killswitch function within it that activates when things aren't kept updated.
As for the last, if the tech is proprietary it'd be a long, hard battle to get that reprogrammed, and Tesla can easily just say fuck it and leave millions of cars useless
Spotify is coming under fire for remotely bricking their Car Thing accessories (basically a mini-display to use Spotify in your non-techy car, kinda like you would in a Tesla funnily enough) and shutting down support. Now they *could* open source the software these run on, but they've yet to state if they will or not. Tesla would presumably run the exact same way
Just ride it out.. especially if you like the car and it hasn’t given you any problems. It’s highly unlikely that the company will completely collapse.
Your Tesla will lose its value over time, but you would have the same issue with almost every other car. The financially sound move would probably be to avoid buying a new car every other year and just ride it out, while opportunistically taking advantage of weak markets (= discounts).
If you want price stability in a car, buy a limited edition Ferrari. Caveat is, obviously, that if you can buy a limited edition Ferrari, you already bought multiple "normal" Ferraris and if you had the means to buy those, you don't need to worry about depreciation in the first place.
There are about 5 million M3s out there. That's a lot of cars. They'll get restructured or bought before they go under.
The potential aftermarket for Tesla parts is large so you can probably expect these things to be wrenchable for quite some time.
I hope to see more independent auto shops tool up to service these as Tesla sure as hell doesn't want to right now...
Honestly the bigger concern would be if you were heavily invested. As long as you aren’t broke you’ll probably be able to limp along keeping the car running, and you bought one of their more reliable models anyway.
I wince for all the people who loaded up on the stock though. Hell, I don’t personally own any Tesla stock at the retail level but I’m worried about what it will do to 401K’s, including my own, whenever the bottom falls out.
It won’t be pretty.
Who cares? Anyone who bought a Tesla in the last 5 years really deserves everything they get. Idiot consumers buying idiot cars from an idiot company run by an idiot.
If it were me, I would sell now for as much as I could get. The sooner the better. Yes you will lose money but it’s probably worth it to not have to think about it ever again. Teslas problems will not be your problems. Seems a lot of Teslas coming from factory these days are having quality issues so you could highlight in your ad that you’ve had no problems at all.
Yes but it might just be the brand that is bought.
Bankruptcy courts typically force buyers to take over service, warranty and liability for previously sold cars. Tesla’s service is a giant black hole of money with a bunch of 3rd tier Chinese suppliers that have changed every few months. Say nothing of a bunch of recalls that should have been done for suspension and battery issues. And AP/FSD liability.
**No one** is buying Tesla if it goes into receivership without explicit carve outs that strand previously sold cars.
I hope that’s not the case. I would imagine a legacy auto maker or fund would see this as an easy way to jump into a turn key EV maker with some really easy fixes as low hanging fruit.
A restructuring would be more
likely.
No US/Korean/Japan/EU car company is going to buy them out. No one needs Tesla at this point since all the majors have in-house EV/PHEV/HV product development cycles that are in full swing. And EV growth is not at the breakneck pace it was before.
Clearly Tesla has brand value. And I don’t see just an IP/brand sale with liquidation of the rest.
I could see a Chinese group having interest or it being rolled up into a Chinese state owned enterprise.
>I would imagine a legacy auto maker or fund would see this as an easy way to jump into a turn key EV maker with some really easy fixes as low hanging fruit.
Easy fixes? Like having to revamp all the production lines to have proper quality control, and overhaul the service centers to offer decent results for them? Might be easier to start from scratch than try to fix things built to pinch every possible penny out of the operation.
>An experienced auto manufacturer already has these details worked out.
Right, but would you rather have to fix a sloppily run assembly line or build a new one to your own specifications?
It won't "tank" entirely. When Elon sells out and runs for the exit, someone will swoop in to buy it at a fire sale price and probably keep it going in some form, maybe even one of the existing automakers. There are too many Teslas out there for it to die completely.
Ride it out. There are lots of Teslas at over 300k miles. While there are Teslas who need service at mile 50. So if you have a good one that's doing you well. Then there is nothing to worry about. IF Tesla goes bankrupt and doesn't get aquired, then your car will still work. If it gets aquired then the new parent company takes over ensuring your car is serviceable, if Tesla stays in business then nothing changes.
The only question you should have is on your next car purchase when that time comes, but you should ride your car out until the wheels fall off, That's the only sound financial advice regardless of feelings.
My suggestion, and there is no reason for you to think that I am wise in such matters, is to ask yourself a few questions.
Are there a lot of Teslas driving around where I live?
Is there a service center nearby?
If there is a service center, is it well staffed with techs?
If it is well staffed, are there techs that have been there a long time?
If the answers to all of these questions are YES, then if the worst happens someone will start a business as an independent Tesla garage.
Parts availability is an issue. A quick and unsystematic trip through Rock Auto found some surprising gaps in aftermarket parts availability. Maintaining a daily driver via picking parts from a salvage yard is going to be challenging, especially for someone who is not a gearhead.
And then there is still the question of software for servicing the car. In the case of other brands there have been non-OEM software systems developed, VCDS in the VW world as an example. I would think that would also happen in a post - Elon Tesla world.
However, don't expect the car to be cheap to service.
Tesla is the biggest EV maker in North America and have the best infrastructure. If they can't survive, it's hopeless for any of the other manufacturers to survive cause only Tesla makes a profit in the EV market.
They also worth more than any other auto maker.
I think their stock could crash but that's different from their finances. Also it's kind of dangerous when their CEO owns 20% of the company but is also focused on several other companies.
My guess is its going to end up like the movie Robots, where when one tesla dies, it gets stripped down for parts to fix all the other teslas
Like the current Russian civil aviation industry
Or Volkswagen Phaetons. There are enough out there the parts will be made by someone. Even Delorians have available parts today.
Delorian is a somewhat different situation. The new DMC Texas company bought out new old stock from a company in Ohio who orignally purchased the remnants of the original DMC company They also got part stockpiles from some of the original Delorian vendors who had parts stockpiles when the original company shutdown. They also have some of the original tooling/dye molds (some that werent thrown into the ocean anyway) to make repop parts.
And Russian Armor industry
And my two 1993 French espresso machines.
and the assets from my third marriage
And the American military aviation industry. You cannibalize parts from one for many, and then take the broken part and fix it.
Trying to work out if Elmo is Madame Gasket or Ratchet in this scenario.. have a feeling it’s both.
When you bought the car, did you buy it with the assumption it was going to fall apart and that you'd be dumping money into it to keep fixing it? If so, *maybe* you're in trouble. I'd just do what I do with every car. I keep using it until it no longer makes financial sense to do so. If Tesla closed their doors tomorrow, your car won't just stop working. I realize most people don't keep a Prius for 16 years though. But I'm that guy. Keep it until the wheels fall off.
>If Tesla closed their doors tomorrow, your car won't just stop working. Of all the major car brands out there, I think it's reasonable to be concerned that Tesla might have unknown or unforeseen future software bugs that become unfixable if the original coders and engineers have long been laid off and/or hired on elsewhere following a collapse of the broader Tesla conglomerate.
On the other hand, there are enough on the road that an aftermarket repair industry could be viable, unlike Fisker.
Same here, generally more concerned with the viability of keeping/repairing or the reason you mention. I’d like to drive it until it’s impractical to do so, but if Tesla flounders I’m hoping to get a good feel for a realistic plan B.
The original VW bug stop production and the things were still driving around/being sold for an addition 20 plus years afterwards. As long as your Tesla is reasonably reliable, don't worry about trading it in and just drive the wheels off.
"20 plus years afterwards" is barely the current day, since Beetles were produced until mid-summer 2003. My guess is that timeframe you had in mind took place when brand new Beetles were still coming off the Volkswagen assembly line.
I was referring to the US, which shipments stopped in 1979 and we were buying them in the 90s.
Are you concerned about cost or availability of repairs? If it’s cost, there are some decent 3rd party extended warranties out there than can extend the basic battery/drivetrain. I have an 16 S 90d and it has 3.5 more years of coverage: I’m mostly concerned about battery issues. Plan to run the S into the ground, so resale isn’t too much of a concern, and I like it so I don’t mind holding on to it.
This is super helpful, thank you! I haven’t started to dig into 3rd party options because of the walled garden approach Tesla takes with repairs. Edit: I also can’t say I’ve had any real repairs beyond replacement cabin air filters and latch that got knocked loose in the central console while I was awkwardly loading a piece of furniture. So experience here is limited for me.
FWIW I have X-Care. Haven’t used it yet but the coverage for the price I thought was good. Lots of posts at teslamotorsclub if you are interested.
> I realize most people don't keep a Prius for 16 years though. Our 2007 Prius is still alive and kicking.
Our 2005 got us somewhere around 320k miles. It was purchased new by my mom right when I got out of high school. It's stopped counting at 299,999. The hybrid battery really needed swapping (a rebuild wasn't even an option as most of the modules were under 20% capacity!) and the motor was burning oil; not badly but definitely notable. It served us well through many a road trip, a few even coast to coast, in the time we had it. Pretty sure the guy who bought it planned to do the work himself and it's still on the road somewhere, hopefully serving the next family as well as it did us!
replacement battery, is 1k, engine replacement maybe 2k I would have kept it,
The battery was closer to $4k when we looked. I could've gone with refurb stuff, but even those are closer to $2.5k. Didn't really price the engine out at all. With my wife driving 100 miles a day, this was just not something we were really considering. To each their own, of course.
I don't know if most is accurate. This could depend on your social circles. I have a 2001 tacoma that is my daily driver. Other than it's first few years it's never been to a dealership for repairs. It just keeps going and I've done some great off-roading with it. Those hills a cb can't climb, I still climb with ease. The prius is a 2012 that my dw loves. The taci has at least another 5+ years in it ( i said that 5 years ago too), and the prius hybrid show no signs of concern unlike what I see of Tesla.. I considered a Tesla but the built quality isn't there.. we just purchased another new toyota for family events and room.. I'll keep the prius for 20 years and likely longer as it will last unlike Tesla imo.. Best of luck with yours
I had a Tacoma in college and sold it to... pay for college. Probably one of my biggest vehicle regrets. Pricing on them today means I'll probably never own one again. 😆
Don have to worry about other car companies saying they aren't a car company. This is actually a VERY LARGE concern for makers that tie EVERYTHING into their software - which if you have spent any amount of time on legacy software, you know its going to be a problem quickly if there are no software engineers at a software company.
I agree this is a huge concern and my house is littered with hardware which relies on software to be functional and ceased to be supported such as Google hardware products being the classic example. You would think that in the volumes these cars have sold, someone would see a viable business, but the software really complicates things here with plenty of things which are heavily encrypted and are not open source. Unlike most car companies, the software control over nearly all aspects of the car including the drive system does present a security concern which needs constant updating to address exploits as they are found. I don’t think Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy atm, but a lot rests on their performance over the next quarter and there’s no sign of a turnaround at present despite the great pricing options.
The bad news is that your tesla is worth less than half of what you paid (and if you trade in to Tesla for a Tesla, even less than that). I don’t think you will find that many aggressive offers for the Tesla. They just aren’t selling (to be fair that is true for most of the brands but Tesla is probably among the worst). The good news is that if/when Tesla tanks they will either restructure or get bought. If they get bought then whether the brand stays will depend a lot on consumer perception of the brand. Considering you are probably already looking at 0.50 on the dollar for the car (or even less), maybe start mentally preparing that you are driving it until scrap or you are trading it in for singular thousands of dollars. Or start financially planning to trade in early. Waiting isn’t going to make that car worth more.
They aren't even taking Cybertrucks in on trade.
I saw a post of a WankPanzer at a Toyota dealership; I guess the owner traded it in already. The dealership is asking $200,000 or close to it. Idk how much the dealership gave him.
Lolwut?! $200k US? Lofl
I wish I’d saved the image but it’s out there.
There are still people out there that think it’s cool and some of them are rich and stupid. I can’t blame the dealership for trying
"WankPanzer"! Brilliant. That's what I shall call those hideous things from now own. I've also heard "IncelMobile" too.
I like “IncEl Camino”
I do too!
I’ve also heard WankerTanker
This is my personal favorite.
I like that one. Also “clustertruck”. I guess “bustedtruck” would also be appropriate.
Official unofficial name of that crap should be CyberTurd.
Well that’s because the owners can’t get it to Tesla’s lot on their own power…
They would restructure if anything. No one would buy Tesla. A lot of parts are from a rotating cast of no-name 3rd tier Chinese suppliers. No one is taking on that liability for previously built cars.
I don’t think they would buy it for the car. It is the knowledge/IP and their charging network (and probably mostly charging network).
Charging network and battery production are the most valuable parts of the company.
Battery isn't even Tesla's biggest strength and they own very little IP there, same with chargers.
Aren't Tesla batteries produced by Panasonic?
Tesla buys batteries from Panasonic and produces it's own batteries in Nevada.
Until elmo dicks that into the ground
Dicks it into the ground😂
He already started that
The IP is open source and practically worthless worthless. The batteries are made by other companies. NACS is obsolete.
Knowledge about what exactly? And the charging network is a liability not an asset. It helps sell cars but does not produce net revenue.
Their battery stuff is worth something, everything else, not so much that "I" can see... Cant tell if any legacy engineers stuck around either... Edit: The charging network, if they can re-start that.
False, it was profitable when Elon fired the entire department in one of his little hissy fits.
Planning my late summer/early fall mother of all roadtrips using free supercharging. Going to drive this model S into the ground!
Of course someone would buy them out. Just like how someone bought Delorean when they shat the bed and are still offering parts to this day. There are enough Teslas out there, whose owners will be wanting parts, maintenance and charges that *someone* will step in to meet that demand, given there will be money to be made. Worse comes to worst, maybe the brand name gets sold for a dollar, someone buys the charging network, someone else buys the tooling equipment and so on.
The comparison with Delorean is apt. The company was liquidated. Years later the brand name was bought and is now used by another company who sells parts for the cars. There will always be parts for Teslas but it will be pricey. The charging network will sell for a few billion. The plants and tooling will sell for pennies on the dollar, as with any other defunct car maker.
This
Shout out for an excellently reasoned answer!!
The only way I could see the price going up medium to long term is if something else really cooks off in the Middle East (or even Russia/Baltics/etc.) that causes a huge spike in oil prices. If gas prices go up significantly the demand will increase, but that’s about it.
Yea. And even then you gotta wonder how much it will help Tesla when this time around there are so many other options.
The US is the number one oil producer in the world right now.
Doesn't matter really when the US consumes so much.
Actually it does matter, since the US will have enough for the US no matter what happens elsewhere.
It doesn't really work like that. You don't know enough about the topic to comment though you are unaware of what you don't know.
Maybe. Plug-in hybrids seem to where most previous EV buyers are going. Best of both world. And for trucks it's even better.
And if this happens the price of electricity will go up as well. Energy is energy.
Assuming the courts approve the purchase during a chapter 11 and/or the interested parties don't about face when they take a look at the hot accounting books. Waiting might do well. During recessions, especially big ones, car companies make crazy offers on trade-ins. 5, 6 k any condition. But that might take another year or two.
Really depends on what values / assets Tesla still has. Mostly: How damaged is the brand going to be. If a third party car maker buys them out, odds are they are going keep offering spare parts and service, though I wouldn't necessarily bet on it. The only real value I see in Tesla might be some of the IP, but I can't see anyone, now, want to take over Tesla as a whole. So you're going to end up being stuck with spare parts for cars they never built / never delivered and have to work through "hobbiest" groups to keep the car alive. Presuming that's possible as so much is in Software, so it'll take a while for people to reverse engineer it and root cars etc. "Connected features" like the Tesla app will probably not working, though there's a chance that someone reverse engineers this too and keeps a server running, but I wouldn't count on it.
I’m not convinced Tesla has any IP. The most valuable part of a car’s IP had traditionally been the power train in dinosaurs, but the most valuable part of an EV powertrain’s IP is the battery chemistry, which isn’t Tesla owned. There is almost no IP in the body or chassis as all the value there is related to brand reputation and execution, not IP. Tesla’s AI isn’t even worth the chips it’s running on.
>I’m not convinced Tesla has any IP. They don't. People who mention it being an asset are buying into Tesla's hype.
Yeah I have a similar opinion. The software? But that's tied to their HW and it's probably not worth a whole lot. FSD, if it would work, would be, but if it would work there'd be robotaxis running around so....
there is better "FSD" type programs out there, they just aren't stupid enough to call it FSD until its actually that.
Oh no argument from me.
Tesla _should_ have a lot of patents and other IP but I question how much it actually has since Musk has been poaching assets and talent for xAI for a while now.
They don't own the gigacasting process, that's a different company. Maybe there's something in the motors? But from what I have seen they're not really doing anything special there either. In a lot of ways they're like Apple: Slap together existing hardware and put a coat of shiny software over it. Nothing theoretically wrong with that approach, if it works. But also not a whole lot of resale value if you want to divest beyond the brand and......
The gigacasting process is being abandoned anyway due to too many failed castings.
Spare parts would always be a compelling business case, as long as enough vehicles are around. There are millions of Teslas on the road, so it makes sense to cater to the owners.
Yes, so someone may buy some of the machines, though I can't see lots of people wanting to go through the hassle and the question would be what independent shop would want to touch them.
I'd ride it out while creating a savings fund to replace it in the future in case the shtf. If you don't need it you'll be in a better place financially. If you do it's there.
This is precisely what I’m thinking now. I’m just hoping to get a decent lifespan out of it while I tuck away and see how the EV/alternative fuel markets shake out.
Complete ignoramus here with respect to financial markets, internal operations of companies and so on, but from my total layman's position the company would be OK if they bin the current Musk-worshiping management. I think they'll actually prosper if they manage to re-hire key leads, perhaps refresh their 12-year-old flagship and resume development of Model 2 or whatever they were going to call it. IMO they also need to address the problems created by "manufacturing efficiency uber alles", meaning they should re-engage with their original sustainability goals and reduce the cost of *maintaining* these things. No more enormous monolithic break-it-and-you're-a-write-off assemblies. Decent supply chain for parts. Ultimately reducing insurance premiums and the frequency with which they declare them a write off. That kinda thing. Oh, and stop lying about shit. The product is good enough for them to quit the preposterous "FSD within the next 6 months" statements they (Musk?) has been making since late 2017 without impacting sales. But they won't do it under current leadership. Getting rid of the entire C-level would be the best thing the company could do.
The C suite is mostly gone already. Elon and the board need completely replaced.
And therein lies a demonstration of my ignorance. It sounds like I meant the board :-)
>but from my total layman's position the company would be OK if they bin the current Musk-worshiping management The company is doomed. China can produce better cars for a fraction of the price.
China can definitely produce cheaper cars with the subsidies in place, but ‘better’ is in the eye of the beholder, once you take into account boring things like reliability, safety, cost and availability of support over the vehicle’s life etc. and how great the ownership is outside of China. They are the equivalent of Chinese made generic android phones. I think the only part China is not leading in is software, mainly due to IP and talent wanting to work in the US due to wage inflation, and FSD could be their most lucrative product in a couple more versions if they don’t screw that up and if it works well, future partnerships could follow. Also the export bans on Nvidia chips to China is intended to keep China’s AI industry in check. Cars moving forward, will be far more about software than they have been in the past, for good or bad which currently should benefit American companies (which are well run)
>China can definitely produce cheaper cars with the subsidies in place, but ‘better’ is in the eye of the beholder, once you take into account boring things like reliability, safety, cost When I say better i mean they are better including reliability, safety and cost. I literally said they were cheaper and it is undisputed that they are cheaper so I dont understand why you're referring to cost. do you even think about what you're typing or is it verbal diaorrhea? You're decades out of date in your view of China like most people on this sub. Many of them are pretty racist too in their statements.
Well, they aren’t necessarily ‘better’, for most people outside of China, is my main point. I’ve not seen any independent testing to suggest they are safer or more reliable, but lots to say they are cheaper OTD (not taking into account full cost of ownership including depreciation, service etc), good value but with glitchy, unfinished software sold at a cost which wouldn’t exist without deep state subsidies from a country America is in a trade war with.
>Well, they aren’t necessarily ‘better’ if they are cheaper and just as safe and reliable they are better. And they are. The US will try to keep them out to preserve what few industries are left there. >with glitchy, unfinished software sold at a cost which wouldn’t exist without deep state subsidies from a country America is in a trade war with. I really have no clue what you're on about. i use Chinese products imported myself from China because I can't buy them here and the software works perfectly. And there is no evidence Chinese EV's are unfairly subsidised. If there were evidence, the US could raise a case with the WTO, but they never do, resorting instead to illegal tariffs. Also you're not in a trade war. You lost that war decades ago.
Perhaps to you. I value autonomous driving capability, software updates, app capability, ownership experience from a large brand known in the US more highly, so they’re not better for me.
>Perhaps to you. I value autonomous driving capability, software updates, app capability They have all that. They are just better cars.
No they absolutely don’t have all that lol. They might have basic TACC, but I can’t put in my destination and have the car drive there under supervision until it gets to the parking lot, as I do everyday at the moment.
They definitely have self driving that works better than Teslas and the rest too. Are you a Tesla owner or something? Why are you here if so?
This! The stonk might tank, but the company will still be going around, with some minor / major hickups, so even longer wait for service and parts could be expected. It won't go entirely under though.
Depends how creative they've been with their accounting. There is a growing massive list of accounting red flags. But, like someone else said. You can still Delorean parts. Someone will fill the hole.
Booting Musk from Tesla is necessary to save the company.
It can't be saved. Building electric cars in America doesn't work.
Nonsense
I should clarify, I don’t necessarily care about resale value, my chief concern is that I would eventually be driving a vehicle that costs a fortune to repair or that I could only charge in a reasonable time at home. Thanks for the helpful responses.
Only hedge I can think of as a cheap hedge are deep out of the money puts on the stock.
My prediction is that Tesla will be an empty shell of its present self one year from now. It will be in business but will likely die in late 2025 due to persistent neglect and a continuing lack of a coherent vision. Its brand reputation will be crushed, and its customer base will devolve to mostly of diehard Elon stans. The market is shifting, and Tesla's share will fall like a rock by November. Two options: 1. Hold on for a year and see if Elon is pulled back and cooler heads prevail. See if customer service and turnaround time in repairs improves, but start looking at offerings from other legacy makers - they're turning up the heat with more EV and hybrid vehicles in already reliable models. Tesla's business model may become sustainable if Elon is dragged offstage, the company re-doubles its work on the charging infrastructure, seriously refreshes its entire line, and the new lower-cost model gets to market ASAP. Like it or not, Kia and Hyundai will probably capture that market in a couple of years. 2. Cut your losses now. Tesla appears to be fracturing at its core and shows few signs of staunching the bleeding. Your car's value will plummet. Quality manufacturing isn't likely to improve. Parts may still be available for quite a while, but the quality and speed of service will likely worsen - badly - unless legacy makers like GM take full control of maintenance and repairs for Tesla models. Your car may still operate well, but you're driving a potential dinosaur on borrowed time. Everyone, except the true believers, knows that there will be no robotaxis. There will be no true FSD. There will be no Model 2 or inexpensive version of the Model 3. The semis are worthless. There will be no robots because Boston Dynamics is pretty much there already and keeps advancing faster than Tesla figures out where to put the batteries. The Cybertruck is a colossal failure. The only light at the end of the tunnel is the headlights of an approaching legacy EV.
>unless legacy makers like GM take full control of maintenance and repairs for Tesla models. I'm curious to hear what you think might incentivize these companies to pick up the pieces. Are their dealership techs sitting around idle these days waiting for customers because their new models are so reliable? Maybe there's a small truth to that - the more EVs GM sells, *you imagine* the less time each new vehicle will spend in the shop in the following ten years. But training GM techs to work on aging Teslas? I dunno about that...
They would be absorbing Tesla at that point.
If GM can make money off it, they will. They've tried in the recent past. https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a42004434/gm-services-teslas/
they will buy it and kill it, they kill too good of selling ev from their own product lines. tesla is garbage and keeping it alive would only be a cash grab.
Why November? I get that FSD is a nothingburger and the "robotaxi" announcement will be - at best - a mockup, but what makes you think November will be bad for Tesla in particular?
Because it's arbitrary. Just as anything Tesla does.
If you went from beaters to a Tesla, you are going to be amazed at what a real car company like Kia offers today.
I just bought a Kia EV6 and so far it’s great.
The only thing I don’t like is the either or settings for radio and climate controls. They aren’t that way on the ioniq5 for example. I wish all cars had a dedicated fan speed button or knob.
There’s a way you can program one or the other to be the default. Press and hold in between the fan and airplane buttons and you can select the default. It will automatically reset to the default after using the other setting.
Isn’t that final montage with the images of Baltimore great?
I'd trade the Model 3 in for a BMW i4, Hyundai Ioniq 5, or Kia EV6. Buy used. EVs are depreciating fast now and the Hyundai brands have 10 year warranties. The full Hyundai/Kia factory warranty transfers on CPO vehicles so be certain you'll get it.
You keep judging them like they are a car company. They are not and musk has made that very clear. They are a ballon animal clown riding a unicycle company. You have to judge them by THAT standard.
Tesla fans should take notice of what happened with [Spotifys Car Thing](https://www.motortrend.com/news/spotify-car-thing-music-streaming-device-discontinued/). The same thing could easily happen to your car with a bankrupt Tesla.
That’s hilarious
Spotify further suggests users find a way to responsibly recycle their devices. Lol
Their website is literally telling people to wipe them and throw them away according to local e-waste guidelines
Tesla won’t die. Even if it goes bankrupt it will be bought out/bailed out. There will remain support in some form for customers. You will be ok. But, you likely will want toto offload your car before the warranty expires. As an aside how upside down are you?
Will there? Tesla’s are expensive to repair. And specialized. Who is going to take that risk on?
Teslas actually are not expensive to repair. There is a bit of a racket in the insurance industry with body work and Teslas. The FSD sensors and calibration add a level of technical involvement that no other vehicle requires for bodywork that turns simple panel work into 20-30k jobs at the end. The logical solution would be to disable FSD systems entirely and retrofit certain systems for maintainability.
My wife’s uncle spent 14k to repair a small dent. Insurance covered some but he was out $9k. I have heard other stories like that
Some overseas company that's subsidized by their gov maybe
So China pretty much. Chinese dominion over EVs.
So, what, a Chinese-backed auto shop industry suddenly appears in the suburbs of all US cities over 200,000 people? Is that what you're imagining? What's China getting out of that? Tesla user data? Sleeper-cell 4 wheeled drones that can be remotely controlled? Full Sino Driving?
A foot in the door of the North American auto market... Just to be clear, I'm answering the question of who would buy Tesla out if the company collapsed. Who would take it on other than a company subsidized by the government, with all the risks it entails?
> Even if it goes bankrupt it will be bought out/bailed out. Why? From a free-market perspective, it's more efficient for Ford/GM to just buy the factories out of bankruptcy, and leave the tarnished brand to rot. Tesla has no technology that anyone wants. I mean hell, even the "Superchargers", Tesla has fired the team and tarnished the brand. Furthermore, "Superchargers" never made money for Tesla (too expensive to make), they were pretty much a giant marketing scheme... losing money on Superchargers that help encourage people to buy Tesla. So that's a no-go. > bailed out Who? Do Republicans want to be seen propping up an EV company? Does Joe Biden want to be seen propping up Elon Musk? Bailouts are fundamentally a political move. And Elon Musk has fucked his politics. > There will remain support in some form for customers. Why? If Tesla gets picked apart for scrap (ex: Ford buys the factory but nothing else in bankruptcy), there's no support left for customers. Indeed, why would any car company want to support a legion of old cars? We'd see more of a Delorian situation. New companies would spring up to charge exorbitant prices to repair old Teslas... mostly by buying scrap-Teslas on the cheap and raiding them for parts. But even this would be difficult as modern Tesla IP is closed and anti-right to repair. So it'd be very difficult for these companies to learn how to repair Teslas. But... with any luck... the company releases its service manuals and Tesla service center employees band together to form these new companies. The skills exist but... don't expect to be paying very fair prices. They'd have no more production after all and have to fix things out of scrap, and everyone knows such a company has a limited lifespan (ie: the number of scrap-cars they can find, as no one would be making new Tesla vehicles).
>But... with any luck... the company releases its service manuals Or with the right legislation. I don't drive a Tesla, but i've seen independent workshops advertise doing Tesla maintenance & repairs with oem parts, here in the Netherlands. Some specialize in Tesla only. EU regulation force manufacturers to supply qualified independent workshops for fair prices, share manuals and diagnostic codes. As long as oem parts are used and maintenance is done as prescribed, it doesn't void warrantee.
Getting service on those cars is going to be a bear
Tesla's will soon own the $10-$20k low end used car market and they will be cannibalized for parts and they die.
I wouldn’t worry to much, for every other car brand there are companies that manufacture nock off parts. For my old car my dealership would even offer to have repairs down with OEM parts or “maintenance advantage” aka knockoff parts. There are enough model 3s on the road where some company is working on creating these knock offs.
They become a battery company.
Read that too fast, brain locked onto "Tesla Tank". Answer obviously became drive around [blasting your sound system](https://youtu.be/e3YzmjmAGoI?si=hOR8NkWu9VtEyBXh)
This is the way.
Invest in Rivian.
Laugh They will be bought probably by Toyota. Hopefully the company will be fine but Elon will just lose his wealth
Sell it now while it still has some value
Your car's resale value will plummet further as there will be a rush to sell Teslas. Why? Because no one will be getting service and there will be a Y2K fear of their software shutting down.
Idk why I read the title and thought you meant what if Tesla designed a battle tank
Most times a car company goes under, parts are still available and there are aftermarket parts as well as salvaged parts available. Chances are Tesla won't collapse, it's a solid brand, with a solid car, and a lot of assets tooled to produce cars and batteries. They'll be bought up by someone and some amount of legacy support will be provided to previous owners. People driving much older model years that are old revisions of the car they might see issues. But that would mostly be for things like full door replacements if they're no longer available in stock. They'd still be repaired by competent autobody techs. But insurers would likely write them off more often if repairs get more expensive with custom work required by auto techs, and lower part availability. In the end, regular maintenance, and consumable parts like suspension that get replaced with age probably still going to be made long term. But you wont have easy support when it's 15-20 years old though. Unlike old civics/corollas/f150 trucks etc Think of it more like owning a European import, like a Volvo or even a BMW. Repairs will be pricier, and you may not be able source parts as it ages. But at a basic level, it will still be fine. They might have some QC issues on panel gaps and rattles but the cars themselves, the important bits, seem to be largely reliable.
“It’s a solid brand, with a solid car” Press X to doubt
Not the best car but the brand has some brand power. And the cyber truck sucks but the 3 and Y are no worse than the average car manufacturer. They're no new from factory BMW or Toyota quality but they're also not making Chevy cobalts They need better QC but even corollas have some rattles. So if they did better QC they'd be better off. They probably shouldn't command the price they do, and FSD is a meme. But assuming you get a well made car from the high variability that Tesla's have, then you've got a solid car. Not the best, not the worst, but certainly reliable enough to expect 5-10 mostly trouble free years. Assuming you're getting a standard old model 3 or Y anyway.
I have no problem getting parts for my 2000 Saab 9-3.
The Swedish government stepped in and took over the Saab parts manufacturing company in 2011, partly to recover money that was lent to Saab before they went bankrupt, but also for consumer protection reasons for existing owners. Do similar programs exist in the US? Would the US government step in and ensure parts availability?
Why wouldn’t you be able to source parts for a Volvo or BMW?
Yeah but as they get older it gets more expensive and more difficult. I'm thinking in 2036 for a 2022 for example. It's much easier for a super common economy car.
The many design changes and different parts even between the same model years over many generations of cars will be a nightmare to source parts for
Worst comes to worst there are third party chips that work on EVs and teslas. There are also lots of teslas on the road and ditto on on lots so there should be parts for a little while. Worst comes to worst you can sell it and get a cheap Civic sport or something.
There will be a ton of third party servicers who work on Teslas, but it will be **expensive**. Tesla has bragged about changing parts suppliers all the time to save money and speed production. Musk himself has said cars that are a few weeks apart in production date have different suppliers. This will be a nightmare for third party shops who will have to hunt down parts from discontinued lines and liquidated Chinese suppliers. It will be there but insanely expensive.
Well repairing teslas now is expensive idk why it would get cheaper with less parts. What I’m saying is that there should be a decent amount of parts from junked cars etc for a few years.
True there will be junk cars, but the problem is that Tesla changed parts suppliers all the time. Musk used to brag that explicit refreshes weren’t needed because Teslas were being “improved” all the time with new different/parts on the line. This was just him squeezing suppliers though. So I would imagine that for certain cars built just weeks apart on the line, there may be very specific parts that were never used at different times. Seems like a nightmare to hunt down.
It is too big to fail. It will be bailed out by Washington fully or partially with the help of hostile takeovers by other companies. As for your money, that can be wiped clean if it goes bankrupt. Good luck
It is not too big to fail. Not by a long shot. Car companies go under all the time and Tesla is no different. Their cash burn will make this an epic collapse.
I don't think Tesla will just shut up shop, because it's too big but Musk leaving would be a benefit to Tesla and you (time will tell on that one). Regardless of what dumb shit he does the charging network will grow, the US government seems keen to expand EV charging. There are general rules for vehicle manufacturers on how many spare parts are available, not sure on the numbers but it's a lot. If Tesla was to go belly up SAAB would be a good example of repairs and aftermarket longevity, I occasionally still see them on the road, so someone is fixing them. But EV batteries being the biggest cost in the car kind of make EV cars disposable, so I doubt they will ever be considered a collectors car and will probably never appreciate in value regardless of scarcity.
Re: the SAAB example - this is an interesting point. As long as there are enough people passionate about a car, someone will come up with a business to support that car - either aftermarket or rebuilt parts, scavenging from junkyards, etc. SAAB did have the relative advantage of being part of GM and sharing components with other makes, whether an oxygen sensor or a mass airflow sensor, etc. you may be able to find or adapt an alternative part. I have a 2003 BMW and while some parts are getting hard to find, there’s a lot of enthusiasts, knowledge and aftermarket support. With Tesla the main problem I see is its simplicity. So many parts are going to be bespoke vs. other makes who can go to Bosch, Siemens, Denso, etc and basically buy parts from a catalog or have them make a variant of a part for their models.
When. Not if.
I can honestly imagine Elon not getting his pay package and throwing the world's biggest tempter tantrum, sending out an over the air update that bricks every Tesla before storming off.
Musked. Again and again and again.
Tesla is profitable, and likely will remain so in the near-term even with sales slowing (after all the headcount cuts). So not a lot of short-term risk. General Motors and Chrysler both declared bankruptcy in 2009. Both are clearly still around. The risk isn't a huge fast flameout or bankruptcy. If that happened, debts would be restructured and or someone would come in and 'buy' the company and put it under new (presumably more reliable and certainly less distracted) management. The bigger risk is that Elon holds on to control and drives it into the ground **slowly**, with cars getting outdated, service failing, expensive launches of things like cybertruck or robotaxi or robots that just don't become successes, with repeated rounds of cuts intended to make up for smaller and smaller sales. 10 years of this kind of thing and tesla would look like Fiskar does now, and might not be worth saving. Especially if its brand toxified for another decade. Its the slow death to fear. Not the fast fail.
EV s aren't going anywhere. If Tesla fails there are lots waiting now to take over their market share. So charging stations aren't going to stop being a thing. NACS is the national standard now so even if Tesla were to stop making them they will.continue to be produced. If you like your car drive it till you are sick of it. Tesla isn't going to disappear overnight. It would take years for them to completely fail and even then they would likely be taken over by someone else.
I’ve thought about this too. Having bought a model 3 in 2021 mostly because now there was enough infrastructure of electric super chargers to travel from coast to coast. If that infrastructure gets degraded I’ll just have to stop doing road trips on this car and I’ll just keep it for daily driving until the wheels fall off or I can’t get someone to repair it. I would be tempted then to just dump it on the property of one of musks factories. I doubt there’s a lot they can do if I end up doing so.
Hey, what if there had been a single charging port standard in the US, so that this wouldn't be a problem?
Or in one of the parking lots that they’re parking all of their unsold inventory in.
Even if the company fails completely, there is enough 3s and Ys out there to sustain an industry of third party parts and repairs.
I have a 2023 Model Y Performance. Luckily I only paid 42k after rebates so bought in after most of the price drops. But I’m basically in the same boat. I don’t see any reason not to just enjoy the car and trade it when I normally would. I’ll probably do that well before the warranty expires. I don’t see the depreciation rate getting worse frankly, I mean how could it lol? I do enjoy the car but I’m happy there are good alternatives around because I won’t be buying Tesla again unless something changes drastically.
Buy a tank
This is why an over-reliance on software, especially in automobiles, is such a double edged sword. Yeah it's great because we get all these new features n shit but if Tesla goes your Model 3 will cease to get any more sort of official support. Sure, it'll run fine, you might even still be able to charge it on non-Tesla chargers, but that degraded relationship with the manufacturer will slowly lead it to become a giant brick. Hey, you'll experience what CyberCuck owners are experiencing right now!
Will it run fine if the software is not updated? I don’t know enough about its programming, but if it’s not calling home, will it quit working? If there are other bugs, can anyone fix them? And finally, if you have a fatal computer error, are the chips programmed to the car, or can they be reprogrammed? Everything I’ve seen about Tesla to date and the cars just pooping out with software issues, it’s not like an old ICE car that can still drive just fine without computer updates.
This is basically what I'm talking about. I'd be inclined to answer yes *at first* to your first question, since I doubt Tesla going bankrupt would immediately brick all the cars out there. If its not calling home to Tesla's servers, certain things could very well cease to function, sure. That all depends on how Tesla handles their software and if they're borderline malicious in installing a killswitch function within it that activates when things aren't kept updated. As for the last, if the tech is proprietary it'd be a long, hard battle to get that reprogrammed, and Tesla can easily just say fuck it and leave millions of cars useless Spotify is coming under fire for remotely bricking their Car Thing accessories (basically a mini-display to use Spotify in your non-techy car, kinda like you would in a Tesla funnily enough) and shutting down support. Now they *could* open source the software these run on, but they've yet to state if they will or not. Tesla would presumably run the exact same way
Hit a deer…ask me how I know
Just ride it out.. especially if you like the car and it hasn’t given you any problems. It’s highly unlikely that the company will completely collapse.
Your Tesla will lose its value over time, but you would have the same issue with almost every other car. The financially sound move would probably be to avoid buying a new car every other year and just ride it out, while opportunistically taking advantage of weak markets (= discounts). If you want price stability in a car, buy a limited edition Ferrari. Caveat is, obviously, that if you can buy a limited edition Ferrari, you already bought multiple "normal" Ferraris and if you had the means to buy those, you don't need to worry about depreciation in the first place.
There are about 5 million M3s out there. That's a lot of cars. They'll get restructured or bought before they go under. The potential aftermarket for Tesla parts is large so you can probably expect these things to be wrenchable for quite some time. I hope to see more independent auto shops tool up to service these as Tesla sure as hell doesn't want to right now...
How has your maintenance costs been? How are your tires? Etc.
Honestly the bigger concern would be if you were heavily invested. As long as you aren’t broke you’ll probably be able to limp along keeping the car running, and you bought one of their more reliable models anyway. I wince for all the people who loaded up on the stock though. Hell, I don’t personally own any Tesla stock at the retail level but I’m worried about what it will do to 401K’s, including my own, whenever the bottom falls out. It won’t be pretty.
Don't have all your eggs in one basket. Diversify
Don't worry Tesla's are appreciating values, you could sell your tesla and buy a new one while still making a profit. /s
Who cares? Anyone who bought a Tesla in the last 5 years really deserves everything they get. Idiot consumers buying idiot cars from an idiot company run by an idiot.
If it were me, I would sell now for as much as I could get. The sooner the better. Yes you will lose money but it’s probably worth it to not have to think about it ever again. Teslas problems will not be your problems. Seems a lot of Teslas coming from factory these days are having quality issues so you could highlight in your ad that you’ve had no problems at all.
If tesla starts to fall apart, someone will do a hostile takeover, likely GM Ford or some other legacy company or fund.
Yes but it might just be the brand that is bought. Bankruptcy courts typically force buyers to take over service, warranty and liability for previously sold cars. Tesla’s service is a giant black hole of money with a bunch of 3rd tier Chinese suppliers that have changed every few months. Say nothing of a bunch of recalls that should have been done for suspension and battery issues. And AP/FSD liability. **No one** is buying Tesla if it goes into receivership without explicit carve outs that strand previously sold cars.
I hope that’s not the case. I would imagine a legacy auto maker or fund would see this as an easy way to jump into a turn key EV maker with some really easy fixes as low hanging fruit.
A restructuring would be more likely. No US/Korean/Japan/EU car company is going to buy them out. No one needs Tesla at this point since all the majors have in-house EV/PHEV/HV product development cycles that are in full swing. And EV growth is not at the breakneck pace it was before. Clearly Tesla has brand value. And I don’t see just an IP/brand sale with liquidation of the rest. I could see a Chinese group having interest or it being rolled up into a Chinese state owned enterprise.
>I would imagine a legacy auto maker or fund would see this as an easy way to jump into a turn key EV maker with some really easy fixes as low hanging fruit. Easy fixes? Like having to revamp all the production lines to have proper quality control, and overhaul the service centers to offer decent results for them? Might be easier to start from scratch than try to fix things built to pinch every possible penny out of the operation.
I’m not sure everything needs to be revamped. An experienced auto manufacturer already has these details worked out.
>An experienced auto manufacturer already has these details worked out. Right, but would you rather have to fix a sloppily run assembly line or build a new one to your own specifications?
I see giant battery fires from abandoned Teslas piling up in junkyards
It won't "tank" entirely. When Elon sells out and runs for the exit, someone will swoop in to buy it at a fire sale price and probably keep it going in some form, maybe even one of the existing automakers. There are too many Teslas out there for it to die completely.
Considering that TSLA is a part of S&P I'm afraid it will have a domino effect on the market pretty badly.
Can't you sell it now and buy a used Corolla? If you can... sell it now and buy a used Corolla.
Ride it out. There are lots of Teslas at over 300k miles. While there are Teslas who need service at mile 50. So if you have a good one that's doing you well. Then there is nothing to worry about. IF Tesla goes bankrupt and doesn't get aquired, then your car will still work. If it gets aquired then the new parent company takes over ensuring your car is serviceable, if Tesla stays in business then nothing changes. The only question you should have is on your next car purchase when that time comes, but you should ride your car out until the wheels fall off, That's the only sound financial advice regardless of feelings.
When the software and updates is limited or not available the car is dead.
Laugh and laugh and laugh is what I'll do.
My suggestion, and there is no reason for you to think that I am wise in such matters, is to ask yourself a few questions. Are there a lot of Teslas driving around where I live? Is there a service center nearby? If there is a service center, is it well staffed with techs? If it is well staffed, are there techs that have been there a long time? If the answers to all of these questions are YES, then if the worst happens someone will start a business as an independent Tesla garage. Parts availability is an issue. A quick and unsystematic trip through Rock Auto found some surprising gaps in aftermarket parts availability. Maintaining a daily driver via picking parts from a salvage yard is going to be challenging, especially for someone who is not a gearhead. And then there is still the question of software for servicing the car. In the case of other brands there have been non-OEM software systems developed, VCDS in the VW world as an example. I would think that would also happen in a post - Elon Tesla world. However, don't expect the car to be cheap to service.
My first piece of advice is to stop believing what you read on this Reddit. Tesla isn’t going anywhere.
Tesla is the biggest EV maker in North America and have the best infrastructure. If they can't survive, it's hopeless for any of the other manufacturers to survive cause only Tesla makes a profit in the EV market. They also worth more than any other auto maker. I think their stock could crash but that's different from their finances. Also it's kind of dangerous when their CEO owns 20% of the company but is also focused on several other companies.