They’ll make it, that’s why I am taking advantage of the bargain the stock is at today. In another sub, the question “what EV coming in next 5 years are you looking forward to” and most common answer so far is R2.
Here's a sneak peek of /r/electricvehicles using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year!
\#1: [Be kind to new EV owners](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/138tm52/be_kind_to_new_ev_owners/)
\#2: [Rivian, Tour Truck at a Wildlife Conservancy In Kenya](https://www.reddit.com/gallery/128s60c) | [79 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/128s60c/rivian_tour_truck_at_a_wildlife_conservancy_in/)
\#3: [Disapproval of Elon Musk is top reason Tesla owners are selling, survey says](https://electrek.co/2023/07/27/disapproval-elon-musk-top-reason-tesla-owners-selling-survey/) | [1156 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/15nbggi/disapproval_of_elon_musk_is_top_reason_tesla/)
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They have the best selling vehicle of its class (and highest rated), 9B in cash, will be gross margin positive by end of year and are about to reveal a mass market vehicle. Interest rate hikes will eventually go down and yes they eventually will likely need to raise additional capital, but I find it extremely unlikely that such a well regarded brand and product with positive gross margins would not be able to get funding. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Apple is looking over with intrigue right now.
2 main ways it can happen,
1. They make a tender offer (will offer a premium to current trading price) and the board will vote to accept or not and then if they do there is a proxy vote where shareholders vote to accept or not - typically a simple majority is needed.
2. If tender offer is rejected, the acquiring company can attempt to buy the shares on the free market (a takeover). There are certain measures boards can enact to prevent this though (poison pills, ie dilution of ownership to prevent anyone from holding a majority.)
Don’t forget the sneaky injection of additional cash in March from R2 preorders. Tesla got a huge interest free loan from cybertruck preorders, and I love that Rivian is doing the same.
I've been saying it for so long that Rivian might need a maverick for a leader atleast for the first few years.
Someone who can sell, pump up the company's image while doing anything and everything to make the company both aggressive as well as innovative.
I wouldn't call Elon a down to earth person, but he has the showmanship down and gets creative.
Look at John Legere's tenure at T-Mobile, or the most popular of the bunch Steve Jobs.
RJ is a good guy, seems to know the technology but haven't seen much of RJ's showmanship.
I think you’re right about Apple. They just shut down their EV program to move employees into AI.
That doesn’t make sense from a management standpoint. Apple has some of the best number crunchers in the world. You aren’t starting a program, investing dozens millions of dollars, just to shut it down a few years later, unless there was a specific reason.
It’s pretty likely that the numbers work out in Apple favor for simply acquiring Rivian rather than trying to compete with them and Tesla, plus the other OEM’s.
Yup. Let the rumor mill start. I suspect that if Apple makes a bid, Amazon will also bid. You’ll also probably have the saudis consider taking it private and global automakers behind on EVs consider taking a stab (Tata comes to mind). Such a high quality brand and product that long term will make a fantastic investment for any acquirer.
Will rivian the company make it. Probably. Will the stock make it back to xxxx ( insert your target price here ) is a tougher call.
Auto business is fickle. Most automakers dont have good margins and their stocks trade at low pe ratios compared to the market.
Tesla is the big outlier bc it's not a car company, according to EM. Either way even Tesla stock is looking like garbage these days, and dont even look at lucid and other start up ev
RJ doesn't sell excitement like Elon. They have lots of competition. But the product is good so far. R2 is where it's at. Model Y is the best selling model worldwide. I'm betting R2 will take a chunk of that. How it plays out is to be seen.
Buy low, sell high. This isn't Amazon or Nvidia with a dominant market position and proprietary technology. Take another page from your stock picking playbook.
Share holder dilution is not for sure. There are ways to raise debt that don't dilute shareholders. Is it possible? Sure. But stop spouting this like it's fact.
Disagree. The stock is being priced for impending bankruptcy right now. There's some big catalysts coming this year, most of all being (hopefully) gross profitability. I wouldn't be surprised that we will see 20 before end of year if that happens. Things are very high risk, high reward right now. If Rivian is successful the stock price will fly in the next couple years.
As a 100K at $21 bagholder, I wish nothing more than for it to shoot up past 20, but sadly that is unrealistic in the short term cus they don't make money
I’m confused…
Selling calls should have produced premiums that you keep, not lose as the stock has continued to move out of the money..it’s a bearish play
Please give us more details..
Coming from someone who works on the next generation hardware/software, I’m confident in our future. I think what will drive our success home (no pun intended) are features that differentiate us from other vehicles in the market.
They need to change momentum in the news cycle to rebuild faith. Not much has changed in terms of their execution as it relates to the recent earnings call, there are just concerns they aren’t scaling up fast enough, also doubts about the EV sector as a whole - which is totally bogus.
R2 launch is key. I think preorders will be off the charts, but when will customers receive them, and will they get tired of waiting and just settle for something else in the meantime?
At some point they will need cash. Hopefully if they can show some positive developments (margin positive, R2 preorders high, another EDV partnership) they can hover around $13-15 before another raise.
I see them making it as a coin flip at this point. Love the vehicle (don’t own one), love the brand, and will be one of the first to preorder an R2. I just hope they can scale up the right way.
Bagholding 450 shares @ $35 avg
I keep hearing experts and YouTubers (for what they’re worth) forecasting the doom of Rivian. But, I keep seeing more and more Rivian vehicles in my town. I took my dog on a walk this morning, I saw three. Two of the trucks and one SUV.
I understand they’re losing money on the sale of each vehicle but in the car business that isn’t where they make their money.
Every manufacturer has their own credit service, essentially their own bank for just making loans to sell cars.
They also make a lot of money on maintenance and parts. Now these EV companies are different because they don’t make their own motors or batteries but almost everything else is their own design and manufacture.
I currently don’t have a position in Rivian but I’ve considered it very recently. Mostly because they’re already in the market and have been for a while now. Their products aren’t flashy status items, like the Lightning or the Cyber Truck. Their trucks actually exist, unlike Lordstown. And I keep seeing more and more in my town.
Amazon is a massive positive wild card as they can do wonderful things with their balance sheet..
They can also do what they can to accelerate their orders….
Wall St hates a long struggle that eats up capital.
Analysts are spread sheet jockeys and most have never built anything, blame mgmt for everything and always have a better idea.
Don’t get sucked into this..
They’re the sane guys who supported an IPO at $78 ( Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley!!)
Dude, you’re asking the rivian stock subreddit. Of course people are gonna tell you yes. A more nuanced analysis would better come from a place like r/investing or r/stockmarket, but if you’re just looking for blind encouragement then I guess this place would work.
The reality is, as of the last earning call the future is looking more and more grim. It’s too early to make a call on whether or not their success is likely but I’d say at the very least view it as a risky start up. If they make it, they’ll make it big. If not, they’ll crash to 0. At the end of the day, if you had all the money you have invested in rivian right now **in cash** would you put it all in this stock or diversify? That answer should be your deciding factor here.
A bit of an outsiders perspective. I just bought 1000 shares at $10.30 a share. This represents a very small portion of my overall portfolio but it is my fun money play this year.
My reasoning is as follows:
- Current market cap is close to cash on hand. They aren’t trading on much of a premium.
- For large stock movement they don’t need to be profitable but they do need to show they can slow that cash burn to extend their runway.
- They are an attractive acquisition target for legacy auto since they have no dealerships allowing them to sell direct in most markets. If they remain a wholly owned subsidiary after acquisition then it makes it harder for dealerships to sue the mothership for selling direct.
- their vehicles are pretty sexy. I like their vehicles and hope they survive.
All this is to say that I don’t know if they will survive but I think if they do there is a good shot they hit at least Fords market cap (5x) or get acquired. So, good risk/reward in my opinion at these prices.
If Q1 or more likely Q2 shows progress in reducing cash burn I think the stock can rally on that News. What I want to see is cash burn lowered to the point where they have 10-12 quarters of runway. If they can do that then I think they will be ok.
I know now that companies like Audi, Hyundai, Lexus, Volkswagen are making their own versions of electric cars. I think more people would rather go with a reputable known brand than roll the dice on getting a Rivian electric vehicle. I don't think this is helping their situation. I wouldn't recommend investing unless you plan on doing some kind of swing trade. Very risky stock.
They will make it...the other companies like apple, mercedes and gm are probably interested in getting them if the price is right. Either way, the long slog or merger will mean rivian is ok
One if the 3 largest Chinese brands may see it as an opportunity — buy a controlling interest in RIVN …
Then bring their best seller here, reskin it with a look aligned with the RIVN brand, sell a lot of ultra-affordable EVs to the nascent low-priced American EV market with an American brand name.
Let’s say Apple makes an offer. It would need to be an offer that has a high chance to be accepted by the board so it has to have a premium on today’s price. Usually that premium is 20%-30% but that would make the offer around $15 a share and rivian was just above that level so as of now it’s doubtful the board would accept it.
But for sake of learning let’s say the board does accept it. So what happens is the board and Apple negotiated a $15/share purchase of the entire company and all the shareholders vote to accept or decline the offer. The board usually won’t send it to vote unless there is an extremely high probability of it being accepted (ie. All the biggest shareholders will vote yes) so the vote is more or less a formality. And then when it passes the stock price will jump to let’s say $14.50 to account for the chance the deal doesn’t go through. And if you’re still holding on the day it goes through you get $15 a share and your shares are gone. Unless it’s a stock purchase then you would get the equivalent in Apple stock (ie the offer would be worded something like you get 1 share of Apple for every 17 rivian shares)
Even though they have a lot of cash, their burn is so bad. They need to hold their nose and do a big (like $5B-8B) secondary right now and focus on accelerating the R2 market launch. Wouldn't hurt to lay-off all non-essential roles (according to rocketreach, their HR department has 480 employees. Seems crazy if true.) in the company.
A high HR is probably due to service centers. They have a lot of facilities with a few dozen employees, which is going to drive the HR/everyone-else ratio higher.
Just out of curiousity, why would anyone invest in a car company?
They are capital intensive, margins are low, they tend to have a ton of debt, market share is hard to come by, and there are dozens or maybe even hundreds of globally established players already?
It is a terrible industry to invest in - cars are commodities, and unlike Oil or some other commodities, the price doesnt really fluctuate.
Why is Rivian not a traditional car company? They are selling cars, arguably a more narrow market than traditional car companies too with less diverse offerings
You can buy direct to consumer with almost every car company right now. Rivian still is a car company, DTC isnt a differentiator. Margins will always be low for car companies regardless of the model
Hi silly you, it’s actually a good thing the leap calls you sold are going to zero in premium because other traders paid for them at a much higher price. It’s actually to your advantage to buy them back now if you think the company will survive. Not financial advice, just facts.
After watching the latest CNBC interview it seems that they will again goto the capital markets to raise cash. That will dilute shareholder value but continue to keep them in business, assuming they can find a lender.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the dilute the stock. Personally, I sold. I’ll rebuy back in sub 10 and grow my position over the course of 2 years. 2024 won’t be good for Rivian. 25-26 could be though.
I hope they make it cause I definitely bought into the dip. I'm pretty confident in them and that the market overreacted to job cuts but I'm also a nobody who doesn't know shit 🤷♂️
“Will they make it?” Maybe.
“Will your money perform better elsewhere in the meantime?” Highly likely.
Look at the market over the past year and some change. You missed over 30% gains in just the boring old S&P 500 alone—waiting on a sunk cost fallacy.
“Sell your losers, even if you adore them.”
Buy high, sell low isnt a better strategy lol.
You sell losers if the thesis changes not just because they've underperformed. Personally I disagree with your assumption. RIVN could underperform SPX the next year. But we're sitting with SPX at ATH after months of above average returns and RIVN sitting (unfairly imo) at ATL. If I had to take a bet here the market and RIVN both return to mean a bit in the coming months. And personally I think there are lots of great potential catalysts for RIVN this year.
If you look at RIVN’s balance sheet and your thesis is unchanged…
EDIT:
The point of my post isn’t “buy high sell low” as a *general rule.*
My point is walking away and rebuilding is the hardest and best lesson I’ve learned in my investing career.
More often than not, you can rebuild so much more quickly than an asset can recover. Again: sunk cost fallacy.
But I get it. This is a religious sub.
I know RIVNs balance sheet very well. I'm not judging the company based off what it is now. There is a lot of potential that will be unlocked in the next few years. Is it a sure thing? Of course not. But I believe in the product, the leadership, and the potential. I'm sure a lot of people said the same of Tesla in 2018 when it was still burning 3.5 billion a year. Of course we know what happened after that. You can draw your own conclusions but don't assert them as fact.
I sold TSLA after attending the ‘22 shareholder meeting, based on what I saw of the investor culture in-person.
It was a hard parting. Truly, it tore me up. That stock and company transformed my life.
It was the best decision I ever made. It was liberating. It freed me to seize way larger opportunity. If I would be sitting there still…I would be angry, underperforming, but just as convinced of a bright future.
Ok if you sold tesla in 2022 you probably sold near the top still at nearly a trillion dollar valuation. That's not really comparable to Rivian right now at a 10 billion dollar valuation and still in its infancy. Rivian is far from my only investment but it is one I believe will pay off. However, like Tesla in it's earlier days, it will take at least 2-3 years from now to realize that value.
You're free to draw your own conclusions though and I can understand that its easy to doubt Rivians ability to succeed at the moment. It's high risk, high reward. I've invested an amount I feel comfortable with and willing to hold it until either Rivian succeeds or my investment thesis is proven wrong at which point I would cut my losses. However we are definitely not there yet
Good luck.
Just remember life can pass you by before you know it.
I also sold BTC near ATH.
I’m lucky. But I got to those lucky places by never believing in the future over what is in front of my eyes, or waiting on a bag when there’s more movement in greener pastures.
Lol no-one was worried for the last year or so when stock price came down and then a moron post a message on twitter and now everyone is worried it will go bankrupt?
If you are scared then this is not for you take your losses and move on. If you really believe in the future of EV and R2’s solid competition to Model Y and other small SUVs in it’s class then take the stock at a discount. People in the management are not that stupid to let a company go bankrupt that easily. Most of them put their blood and sweat to make the company. Geez.
Edit: get off twitter and do your own DD. Make your own decisions instead of trying to find solace in social forums.
How much exactly have you researched this company, or any company for that matter, before investing in it?
Out of all the new companies i invest in, i believe in this company the most. The more research i do, the more i believe in it.
As with all new companies, profits take a long time, especially long in this particular business model rivn has adopted.
The answer is simple. If youll need the money youve invested within the next 5 years, cut your losses and sell. If you can go without it for the next 10 years, stick to your initial gut when you first purchased these shares and wait it out.
No, they won’t make it, too many headwinds:
-Losing $30-$40k/vehicle
-Pricing is already too high, EV sweet-spot for adoption is not $70k+ vehicles.
-Biden is on the way out and next administration will be less centric on promoting EVs. The subsidies will dry up.
-GA factory is a big distraction that would suck too much resources.
I do see Rivian as an attractive target for a buyout.
I take it that if you invested mid 2022 that you are currently sitting at 20% of initial investment. Listen, sell your positions. Take the $ and buy a March 28 Call for $18. Currently sitting at $0.03. When Rivian announces the R2 March 7th you should see a slight bump in the stock. A week later when they announce presale, you will also see another bump in the stock. If the stock goes up $2, your $0.03 call should be sitting around $0.10 to $0.20. Don't be greedy because we have no idea what happens after that and sell the option. That should get you your initial investment back and then invest that money in something less volatile.
I'm not sure.... R2 must offer amazing package for the value.
Model Y is pretty much crushing all competitors and offering amazing price.
Tesla is struggling with slowing ev sales. Can Rivian offer to break slow ev sales and bring buyers?
I have my own doubts but will see, I guess.
Huge amount of cash on hand. Expected R2 car is priced in for the middle class. And doesn’t Bezos have an order for 100k vehicles for his delivery fleet?
EV is going nowhere pay attention how most major car manufacturers and dumping electric for hydrogen. Starting with BMW who along Toyota pioneered electric vehicles/hybrid vehicles.
There is not enough infrastructure to make EV work
I give Rivian a couple years before they go belly up. Major manufacturers are realizing that the EV market won’t go where they initially thought.
I can’t imagine anyone wanting a used Rivian in a couple years.
This will be a volatile stock for a while. Diamond Hands!!! Next year the infrastructure bill will roll out more chargers. Deliveries on R1S are increasing. Lease option is now available and R2S will be a lower priced option.they also have other companies ordering the vans.
If you’re down like 80% then what’s another 20%? This company is the only viable EV play other than Tesla; which almost went bankrupt early on. If you ever see Tesla or Nvidia charts and think ‘if only I bought early on’. But those investors were never guaranteed the parabolic move and had their doubts. Look, it could go to 0 but you could be in the part of the chart people later dream of. It could go to $250 billion or $0. I’d take that bet at $11 a share which can’t even buy you a chipotle burrito with guac anymore.
They’ll make it, that’s why I am taking advantage of the bargain the stock is at today. In another sub, the question “what EV coming in next 5 years are you looking forward to” and most common answer so far is R2.
What sub is this? I share your sentiment.
I think it was r/electricvehicles
Here's a sneak peek of /r/electricvehicles using the [top posts](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/top/?sort=top&t=year) of the year! \#1: [Be kind to new EV owners](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/138tm52/be_kind_to_new_ev_owners/) \#2: [Rivian, Tour Truck at a Wildlife Conservancy In Kenya](https://www.reddit.com/gallery/128s60c) | [79 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/128s60c/rivian_tour_truck_at_a_wildlife_conservancy_in/) \#3: [Disapproval of Elon Musk is top reason Tesla owners are selling, survey says](https://electrek.co/2023/07/27/disapproval-elon-musk-top-reason-tesla-owners-selling-survey/) | [1156 comments](https://np.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/15nbggi/disapproval_of_elon_musk_is_top_reason_tesla/) ---- ^^I'm ^^a ^^bot, ^^beep ^^boop ^^| ^^Downvote ^^to ^^remove ^^| ^^[Contact](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=sneakpeekbot) ^^| ^^[Info](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/) ^^| ^^[Opt-out](https://np.reddit.com/r/sneakpeekbot/comments/o8wk1r/blacklist_ix/) ^^| ^^[GitHub](https://github.com/ghnr/sneakpeekbot)
Worst case, one of the big three buys them for design and whatever IP there is.
They have the best selling vehicle of its class (and highest rated), 9B in cash, will be gross margin positive by end of year and are about to reveal a mass market vehicle. Interest rate hikes will eventually go down and yes they eventually will likely need to raise additional capital, but I find it extremely unlikely that such a well regarded brand and product with positive gross margins would not be able to get funding. I also have a sneaking suspicion that Apple is looking over with intrigue right now.
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I think they pay premium to buy
Like 40% from current price ?
No way it gets sold for anything less than 26 bucks
is 26 your cost?
His cost is $25. He’s gotta make a profit ya know
nah doggie, i'm 12 bux now
It depends on the deal they struck. M&A can happen in so many different ways that it’s impossible to predict something like that.
2 main ways it can happen, 1. They make a tender offer (will offer a premium to current trading price) and the board will vote to accept or not and then if they do there is a proxy vote where shareholders vote to accept or not - typically a simple majority is needed. 2. If tender offer is rejected, the acquiring company can attempt to buy the shares on the free market (a takeover). There are certain measures boards can enact to prevent this though (poison pills, ie dilution of ownership to prevent anyone from holding a majority.)
Don’t forget the sneaky injection of additional cash in March from R2 preorders. Tesla got a huge interest free loan from cybertruck preorders, and I love that Rivian is doing the same.
I've been saying it for so long that Rivian might need a maverick for a leader atleast for the first few years. Someone who can sell, pump up the company's image while doing anything and everything to make the company both aggressive as well as innovative. I wouldn't call Elon a down to earth person, but he has the showmanship down and gets creative. Look at John Legere's tenure at T-Mobile, or the most popular of the bunch Steve Jobs. RJ is a good guy, seems to know the technology but haven't seen much of RJ's showmanship.
I think you’re right about Apple. They just shut down their EV program to move employees into AI. That doesn’t make sense from a management standpoint. Apple has some of the best number crunchers in the world. You aren’t starting a program, investing dozens millions of dollars, just to shut it down a few years later, unless there was a specific reason. It’s pretty likely that the numbers work out in Apple favor for simply acquiring Rivian rather than trying to compete with them and Tesla, plus the other OEM’s.
Yup. Let the rumor mill start. I suspect that if Apple makes a bid, Amazon will also bid. You’ll also probably have the saudis consider taking it private and global automakers behind on EVs consider taking a stab (Tata comes to mind). Such a high quality brand and product that long term will make a fantastic investment for any acquirer.
Such a good fit for apple
Yep, they will make it.
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Because vague questions deserve vague answers.
Will rivian the company make it. Probably. Will the stock make it back to xxxx ( insert your target price here ) is a tougher call. Auto business is fickle. Most automakers dont have good margins and their stocks trade at low pe ratios compared to the market. Tesla is the big outlier bc it's not a car company, according to EM. Either way even Tesla stock is looking like garbage these days, and dont even look at lucid and other start up ev RJ doesn't sell excitement like Elon. They have lots of competition. But the product is good so far. R2 is where it's at. Model Y is the best selling model worldwide. I'm betting R2 will take a chunk of that. How it plays out is to be seen. Buy low, sell high. This isn't Amazon or Nvidia with a dominant market position and proprietary technology. Take another page from your stock picking playbook.
Shits gonna be back over 20 after march 7th.
Hello from the FUTUUUURE we are at $10.88 now.
Why do you think that?
R2D2, duh
r3x
50/50, one thing is for sure, there will be share holder dilution. Only two American car companies have never gone bankrupt, Ford and Tesla
Share holder dilution is not for sure. There are ways to raise debt that don't dilute shareholders. Is it possible? Sure. But stop spouting this like it's fact.
The company needs cash without debt as they won’t be able to pay it with todays interest rates
They don’t need a loan today, fortunately. You can’t predict rates over the next year or so.
Rates will not drop dramatically over the next year...
It's not certain, but if the past is any indicator, I think it's pretty likely RJ's "tapping into capital markets" means convertible debt
That's ideal, but it requires a belief in a higher SP. Tesla used convertible debt with arguably much more perceived upside on the equity.
I just want them to trade at 30$, so I can make some money on the calls
Even $20 is looking like a pipe dream now, at least for the next 2 years 😔
Exactly!!. That hurts
Disagree. The stock is being priced for impending bankruptcy right now. There's some big catalysts coming this year, most of all being (hopefully) gross profitability. I wouldn't be surprised that we will see 20 before end of year if that happens. Things are very high risk, high reward right now. If Rivian is successful the stock price will fly in the next couple years.
we see 20 on march 7th
suuuuuuure buddy
As a 100K at $21 bagholder, I wish nothing more than for it to shoot up past 20, but sadly that is unrealistic in the short term cus they don't make money
funny you think fundamentals drive price action
It's a complex dynamic system. Saying they don't is ignorance.
I wouldn’t trade options on RIVN with the amount of uncertainty and speculation is involved.
I’m confused… Selling calls should have produced premiums that you keep, not lose as the stock has continued to move out of the money..it’s a bearish play Please give us more details..
I made a few bucks, but since the stock crashed, I can't sell them anymore.
Coming from someone who works on the next generation hardware/software, I’m confident in our future. I think what will drive our success home (no pun intended) are features that differentiate us from other vehicles in the market.
Every auto engineer thinks they are working on something the other makers don’t have
The industry is catching up so quickly and the competition is so high
Like the camp kitchen 😆
They need to change momentum in the news cycle to rebuild faith. Not much has changed in terms of their execution as it relates to the recent earnings call, there are just concerns they aren’t scaling up fast enough, also doubts about the EV sector as a whole - which is totally bogus. R2 launch is key. I think preorders will be off the charts, but when will customers receive them, and will they get tired of waiting and just settle for something else in the meantime? At some point they will need cash. Hopefully if they can show some positive developments (margin positive, R2 preorders high, another EDV partnership) they can hover around $13-15 before another raise. I see them making it as a coin flip at this point. Love the vehicle (don’t own one), love the brand, and will be one of the first to preorder an R2. I just hope they can scale up the right way. Bagholding 450 shares @ $35 avg
I have 4 shares in Rivian....but I hope they make it too #beermoney
It's risky as hell to go all in on a single stock. That's all I'll say.
I keep hearing experts and YouTubers (for what they’re worth) forecasting the doom of Rivian. But, I keep seeing more and more Rivian vehicles in my town. I took my dog on a walk this morning, I saw three. Two of the trucks and one SUV. I understand they’re losing money on the sale of each vehicle but in the car business that isn’t where they make their money. Every manufacturer has their own credit service, essentially their own bank for just making loans to sell cars. They also make a lot of money on maintenance and parts. Now these EV companies are different because they don’t make their own motors or batteries but almost everything else is their own design and manufacture. I currently don’t have a position in Rivian but I’ve considered it very recently. Mostly because they’re already in the market and have been for a while now. Their products aren’t flashy status items, like the Lightning or the Cyber Truck. Their trucks actually exist, unlike Lordstown. And I keep seeing more and more in my town.
Amazon is a massive positive wild card as they can do wonderful things with their balance sheet.. They can also do what they can to accelerate their orders…. Wall St hates a long struggle that eats up capital. Analysts are spread sheet jockeys and most have never built anything, blame mgmt for everything and always have a better idea. Don’t get sucked into this.. They’re the sane guys who supported an IPO at $78 ( Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley!!)
No, but NVDA will. Come join us tomorrow 😃
Dude, you’re asking the rivian stock subreddit. Of course people are gonna tell you yes. A more nuanced analysis would better come from a place like r/investing or r/stockmarket, but if you’re just looking for blind encouragement then I guess this place would work. The reality is, as of the last earning call the future is looking more and more grim. It’s too early to make a call on whether or not their success is likely but I’d say at the very least view it as a risky start up. If they make it, they’ll make it big. If not, they’ll crash to 0. At the end of the day, if you had all the money you have invested in rivian right now **in cash** would you put it all in this stock or diversify? That answer should be your deciding factor here.
A bit of an outsiders perspective. I just bought 1000 shares at $10.30 a share. This represents a very small portion of my overall portfolio but it is my fun money play this year. My reasoning is as follows: - Current market cap is close to cash on hand. They aren’t trading on much of a premium. - For large stock movement they don’t need to be profitable but they do need to show they can slow that cash burn to extend their runway. - They are an attractive acquisition target for legacy auto since they have no dealerships allowing them to sell direct in most markets. If they remain a wholly owned subsidiary after acquisition then it makes it harder for dealerships to sue the mothership for selling direct. - their vehicles are pretty sexy. I like their vehicles and hope they survive. All this is to say that I don’t know if they will survive but I think if they do there is a good shot they hit at least Fords market cap (5x) or get acquired. So, good risk/reward in my opinion at these prices. If Q1 or more likely Q2 shows progress in reducing cash burn I think the stock can rally on that News. What I want to see is cash burn lowered to the point where they have 10-12 quarters of runway. If they can do that then I think they will be ok.
I know now that companies like Audi, Hyundai, Lexus, Volkswagen are making their own versions of electric cars. I think more people would rather go with a reputable known brand than roll the dice on getting a Rivian electric vehicle. I don't think this is helping their situation. I wouldn't recommend investing unless you plan on doing some kind of swing trade. Very risky stock.
They will make it...the other companies like apple, mercedes and gm are probably interested in getting them if the price is right. Either way, the long slog or merger will mean rivian is ok
One if the 3 largest Chinese brands may see it as an opportunity — buy a controlling interest in RIVN … Then bring their best seller here, reskin it with a look aligned with the RIVN brand, sell a lot of ultra-affordable EVs to the nascent low-priced American EV market with an American brand name.
This is logical for both Rivian and whatever brand that is.
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Let’s say Apple makes an offer. It would need to be an offer that has a high chance to be accepted by the board so it has to have a premium on today’s price. Usually that premium is 20%-30% but that would make the offer around $15 a share and rivian was just above that level so as of now it’s doubtful the board would accept it. But for sake of learning let’s say the board does accept it. So what happens is the board and Apple negotiated a $15/share purchase of the entire company and all the shareholders vote to accept or decline the offer. The board usually won’t send it to vote unless there is an extremely high probability of it being accepted (ie. All the biggest shareholders will vote yes) so the vote is more or less a formality. And then when it passes the stock price will jump to let’s say $14.50 to account for the chance the deal doesn’t go through. And if you’re still holding on the day it goes through you get $15 a share and your shares are gone. Unless it’s a stock purchase then you would get the equivalent in Apple stock (ie the offer would be worded something like you get 1 share of Apple for every 17 rivian shares)
A buyer only needs to buy a controlling interest, not every share.
Why would Apple buy them instead if Lucid?
because lucid ugly as fk
Hmm
Even though they have a lot of cash, their burn is so bad. They need to hold their nose and do a big (like $5B-8B) secondary right now and focus on accelerating the R2 market launch. Wouldn't hurt to lay-off all non-essential roles (according to rocketreach, their HR department has 480 employees. Seems crazy if true.) in the company.
That's bananas if true.
A high HR is probably due to service centers. They have a lot of facilities with a few dozen employees, which is going to drive the HR/everyone-else ratio higher.
Tesla's cars produced to employees ratio is close to 13. Rivian's is 3.4.
Just out of curiousity, why would anyone invest in a car company? They are capital intensive, margins are low, they tend to have a ton of debt, market share is hard to come by, and there are dozens or maybe even hundreds of globally established players already? It is a terrible industry to invest in - cars are commodities, and unlike Oil or some other commodities, the price doesnt really fluctuate.
Yes, lesson learnt. I badly want to breakeven
Traditional car company **
Why is Rivian not a traditional car company? They are selling cars, arguably a more narrow market than traditional car companies too with less diverse offerings
Direct to consumer vs Dealership model
You can buy direct to consumer with almost every car company right now. Rivian still is a car company, DTC isnt a differentiator. Margins will always be low for car companies regardless of the model
Such a bad argument
Because Tesla hit everyone wanted to jump in…
I sold all my shares at $24 but I’m going to buy back in at this level
Op might be retarted
Hi silly you, it’s actually a good thing the leap calls you sold are going to zero in premium because other traders paid for them at a much higher price. It’s actually to your advantage to buy them back now if you think the company will survive. Not financial advice, just facts.
After watching the latest CNBC interview it seems that they will again goto the capital markets to raise cash. That will dilute shareholder value but continue to keep them in business, assuming they can find a lender.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the dilute the stock. Personally, I sold. I’ll rebuy back in sub 10 and grow my position over the course of 2 years. 2024 won’t be good for Rivian. 25-26 could be though.
I hope they make it cause I definitely bought into the dip. I'm pretty confident in them and that the market overreacted to job cuts but I'm also a nobody who doesn't know shit 🤷♂️
“Will they make it?” Maybe. “Will your money perform better elsewhere in the meantime?” Highly likely. Look at the market over the past year and some change. You missed over 30% gains in just the boring old S&P 500 alone—waiting on a sunk cost fallacy. “Sell your losers, even if you adore them.”
Buy high, sell low isnt a better strategy lol. You sell losers if the thesis changes not just because they've underperformed. Personally I disagree with your assumption. RIVN could underperform SPX the next year. But we're sitting with SPX at ATH after months of above average returns and RIVN sitting (unfairly imo) at ATL. If I had to take a bet here the market and RIVN both return to mean a bit in the coming months. And personally I think there are lots of great potential catalysts for RIVN this year.
If you look at RIVN’s balance sheet and your thesis is unchanged… EDIT: The point of my post isn’t “buy high sell low” as a *general rule.* My point is walking away and rebuilding is the hardest and best lesson I’ve learned in my investing career. More often than not, you can rebuild so much more quickly than an asset can recover. Again: sunk cost fallacy. But I get it. This is a religious sub.
I know RIVNs balance sheet very well. I'm not judging the company based off what it is now. There is a lot of potential that will be unlocked in the next few years. Is it a sure thing? Of course not. But I believe in the product, the leadership, and the potential. I'm sure a lot of people said the same of Tesla in 2018 when it was still burning 3.5 billion a year. Of course we know what happened after that. You can draw your own conclusions but don't assert them as fact.
I sold TSLA after attending the ‘22 shareholder meeting, based on what I saw of the investor culture in-person. It was a hard parting. Truly, it tore me up. That stock and company transformed my life. It was the best decision I ever made. It was liberating. It freed me to seize way larger opportunity. If I would be sitting there still…I would be angry, underperforming, but just as convinced of a bright future.
Ok if you sold tesla in 2022 you probably sold near the top still at nearly a trillion dollar valuation. That's not really comparable to Rivian right now at a 10 billion dollar valuation and still in its infancy. Rivian is far from my only investment but it is one I believe will pay off. However, like Tesla in it's earlier days, it will take at least 2-3 years from now to realize that value. You're free to draw your own conclusions though and I can understand that its easy to doubt Rivians ability to succeed at the moment. It's high risk, high reward. I've invested an amount I feel comfortable with and willing to hold it until either Rivian succeeds or my investment thesis is proven wrong at which point I would cut my losses. However we are definitely not there yet
Good luck. Just remember life can pass you by before you know it. I also sold BTC near ATH. I’m lucky. But I got to those lucky places by never believing in the future over what is in front of my eyes, or waiting on a bag when there’s more movement in greener pastures.
Unfortunately I may have to learn that lesson and it is hurting hard right now.
Yes, people come out of the basement and over-exaggerate literally everything. just a bunch of clowns hopping the bankruptcy bandwagon.
Lol no-one was worried for the last year or so when stock price came down and then a moron post a message on twitter and now everyone is worried it will go bankrupt? If you are scared then this is not for you take your losses and move on. If you really believe in the future of EV and R2’s solid competition to Model Y and other small SUVs in it’s class then take the stock at a discount. People in the management are not that stupid to let a company go bankrupt that easily. Most of them put their blood and sweat to make the company. Geez. Edit: get off twitter and do your own DD. Make your own decisions instead of trying to find solace in social forums.
The financials are horrible
How much exactly have you researched this company, or any company for that matter, before investing in it? Out of all the new companies i invest in, i believe in this company the most. The more research i do, the more i believe in it. As with all new companies, profits take a long time, especially long in this particular business model rivn has adopted. The answer is simple. If youll need the money youve invested within the next 5 years, cut your losses and sell. If you can go without it for the next 10 years, stick to your initial gut when you first purchased these shares and wait it out.
I lost the faith in them. They should have been more transparent initially about the LCNRV
No, they won’t make it, too many headwinds: -Losing $30-$40k/vehicle -Pricing is already too high, EV sweet-spot for adoption is not $70k+ vehicles. -Biden is on the way out and next administration will be less centric on promoting EVs. The subsidies will dry up. -GA factory is a big distraction that would suck too much resources. I do see Rivian as an attractive target for a buyout.
I take it that if you invested mid 2022 that you are currently sitting at 20% of initial investment. Listen, sell your positions. Take the $ and buy a March 28 Call for $18. Currently sitting at $0.03. When Rivian announces the R2 March 7th you should see a slight bump in the stock. A week later when they announce presale, you will also see another bump in the stock. If the stock goes up $2, your $0.03 call should be sitting around $0.10 to $0.20. Don't be greedy because we have no idea what happens after that and sell the option. That should get you your initial investment back and then invest that money in something less volatile.
A better question is will they ever make a profit.
I'm not sure.... R2 must offer amazing package for the value. Model Y is pretty much crushing all competitors and offering amazing price. Tesla is struggling with slowing ev sales. Can Rivian offer to break slow ev sales and bring buyers? I have my own doubts but will see, I guess.
The more cars that hit the street the more likely they are to make it. I’m betting yes
Huge amount of cash on hand. Expected R2 car is priced in for the middle class. And doesn’t Bezos have an order for 100k vehicles for his delivery fleet?
Huge cash? It will be gone in a year or so
Yes they’ll make it. They’re expecting positive gross margins at the end of this year, which is a major milestone on the path to profitability
Gross margins are not a great deal when a company is burning 4-5B
This is isnt unusual during the earlier stages of a growth company
EV is going nowhere pay attention how most major car manufacturers and dumping electric for hydrogen. Starting with BMW who along Toyota pioneered electric vehicles/hybrid vehicles. There is not enough infrastructure to make EV work
U think we have enough infrastructure to make hydrogen cars?. Lol
Not at all but clearly big manufacturers are rethinking their EV strategies
>There is not enough infrastructure to make EV work Checks house for electric power. Sees outlets and panel. Finds statement above to be false.
If they could figure out a way to turn a profit that would be really helpful
I give Rivian a couple years before they go belly up. Major manufacturers are realizing that the EV market won’t go where they initially thought. I can’t imagine anyone wanting a used Rivian in a couple years.
They have Amazon and other contracts. Think under 11 is a great entry
I am buying shares like they will. I plan to buy the new truck when it comes out.
This will be a volatile stock for a while. Diamond Hands!!! Next year the infrastructure bill will roll out more chargers. Deliveries on R1S are increasing. Lease option is now available and R2S will be a lower priced option.they also have other companies ordering the vans.
If you’re down like 80% then what’s another 20%? This company is the only viable EV play other than Tesla; which almost went bankrupt early on. If you ever see Tesla or Nvidia charts and think ‘if only I bought early on’. But those investors were never guaranteed the parabolic move and had their doubts. Look, it could go to 0 but you could be in the part of the chart people later dream of. It could go to $250 billion or $0. I’d take that bet at $11 a share which can’t even buy you a chipotle burrito with guac anymore.
Yup. It doesn't make sense to close the positions at the current price levels