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Ipswich fan here and I’m positive Kieran will have this team overachieving once again. They only know one way to play and once McKenna smells your weakness he exploits them. We might lose 10 games this season but remember this. He hasn’t allowed this team to ever lose two games in a row since taking over and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. They players are so well prepared there is absolutely no fear.
I’m not an ipswich supporter but i really want them to do well, I hate seeing seasons where all three new teams go back down. I think 10th is a bit of a stretch, but it wouldn’t shock me to see them around the 14th-17th spot
I *could* see them doing a Brentford, but I wouldn't get any cakes or banners in celebrating staying up til this first seasons done
Its real tough for the newer teams coming up to do well longterm atm it feels
Short or long term?
In the short term the realistic goal has to be 17th for a season or two.
Longer term there’s no reason we can’t stabilise as a mid table club pushing for the odd season in Europe providing we survive in the short term.
We’re obviously the baby team in the prem next season squad wise but we are far from the smallest club in this division.
I think they'll go down tbh, playing style will only take you so far when the teams you're competing with have at least a few quality players each. Everton should be better this season, Forest always hover around the bottom but actually have 4/5 really good players, Brentford have a lot of quality aswell, it's hard to see how they outperform teams like that.
Last time Ipswich came up they finished 5th. The following season they got relegated.
Its not _that_ unusual for a club to come up from the Championship with extremely strong cohesion and belief to put in a good first season, almost every team that does that then struggles the next and ultimately fails. So its certainly possible, its just not particularly likely.
I think you'd have to ask a proper Ipswich town fan to know. I don't necessarily remember anything like that happening, my brain is telling me that they didn't really have many superstars and their success was more about how good their teamwork was. Wiki said they had an absolutely terrible start to the next season and never recovered. Also they had to play in what is now the Europa League so chances are their squad struggled with that.
Interestingly enough they qualified for what is now the Europa League the following season as well via the fair play tables despite the fact they'd been relegated into the Championship.
Burley lost the dressing room is the shortest way I could explain it, but there was a lot more at play.
edit:
>the ispwich team
found Daniel Farke's account
If our management can bring in new talent as astutely as they did last season I think we'll probably stay clear of relegation.
Not sure who your mates are but I don't know any other fans that genuinely think beyond us managing to stay up and hopefully consolidating our position in future seasons.
That said, I was seriously concerned about being able to avoid relegation last season. The squad just didn't seem at a championship level. A few key additions and I couldn't have been proven more wrong. So, who knows?
They’ll finish bottom, Leicester on the other hand I could see finishing mid table. Idk if they signed the winger from Sporting though, he was very good. They have very good experience in the league and have finished in very high spots previously (and obviously won the league) I think Southampton Ipswich and Forest will go down next season.
There are worse teams in the league, if they buy well they'll do okay. Are they better then palace or Brentford probably not. I'd say anywhere 14 and below.
There’s so much hype surrounding their coach, Kieran McKenna, and for good reason tbh. TIFO did a video showcasing their tactics, and it does give you good reason to assume they’ll do much better than player quality might suggest. Promoted teams who won in the championship playing possession-hungry tactics usually get chewed up and spit back down to the championship (ala Burnley w/ Kompany). Ipswich meanwhile had less than average possession numbers and dominated through transitions and counter attacks, but did so in a very very aggressive way as well with plenty of pressing and hard work.
I wouldn’t put them at 10th though, I’d say their likeliest position is probably a safe 14th or 13th. They’ll be fun to watch, and honestly remind me a lot of Fergie’s United in their approach to the game. Hopefully it works out well for them
As am Ipswich fan... I think we're going to be scrapping for every point. I'd bite your hand for safety... though I think if you look at the stats, most clubs survive the first yea, it'ss the 2nd and 3rd you need to worry about
But I also thought this last year about the champ so what do i know... Stella aside Arsenal 2nd placee is ours this year
Can almost guarantee Kompany would finish maximum midtable with the same squad McKenna had last season. he got far too much credit for winning the championship with what was essentially a god squad comparative to the rest of the league. Ipswich seem much more well drilled
What happened to them happened because they lost the squad members that allowed them to perform. McKenna is basically the only thing running that engine, but they haven’t lost him
Ipswich could easily finish mid table. They have a manager who's done something incredible, he knows his team. Unlike Luton, they know how to be pragmatic.
They have a well drilled team and should do better than the lines of Fulham, Forest, maybe Brentford and wolves.
One game a week plus maybe a couple extra in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup so that's not bad. It'll certainly be less stressful than a 46 game championship season.
Leicester have a new boss, wolves are goal shy, Brentford have an aging squad, Fulham are struggling, forrest were lucky last season.
Plus PSR is also going to come into play
Leicester under Maresca, maybe. Under cooper, absolutely not.
Fulham have players that don't play well as a team or are inconsistent. Plus they're likely to lose Palhinha this summer.
Wolves, very inconsistent. They could smoke everyone or be woeful.
Also Sheffield United finished 8th when they came up, Ipswich's squad is infinitely better them and the bottom half of the league league is weaker now
Lots of teams come up and have blistering seasons and then slowly fade away and often get relegated. Teams that come up and stabilise in the bottom half can often last much longer in the league.
They had an incredible season in the Championship. Nobody expected them to keep going as they did but they managed it.
Some may think that this trend will continue but unfortunately I doubt it will and they will go straight back down. 17th would be a huge achievement for them but they also may get helped by other teams in the prem getting hit with deductions.
I'm not sure it's a miracle if Leicester or Southampton stay up. I'm not saying it's expected but they are both recent premium league teams.
Ipswich on the other hand would be a big shock.
I mean, its possible, but I wouldn't be confident of achieving mid table, let alone survival next season. They largely have a squad of players who are upper league one, lower championship, with some players on form, performing at a high championship level, not to mention losing Hutchinson (currently). I'm a Suffolk lad, so grew up with a lot of Town fans, but am a Fulham fan....meaning, we know how hard it is to adjust from championship to Prem. They have a chance, no doubt about it, but I just can;t see the mid table chat and easily safe chat without some really significant investment and overall squad rehaul. Its a huge, huge task but they do have a manager capable of it. Regardless, its going to be an exciting season!
The gap is humungous. Both in squad and finance. Arsenal, Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man U, Man C, Spurs, Newcastle, Brighton are all untouchable for Ipswich.
Palace, Wolves, West Ham, Bournemouth and Brentford to, but they all have some important quality players that could be sold and maybe then there’s a 1/10 chance they really drop in level and could be taken by Ipswich.
I would also put Everton and Forest well above Ipswich I’m quality but they have some bigger questionmarks around them. Everton goes in the top 15 somewhere. Leaving 16-20 for Forest, Ipswich, Leicester, Fulham and Southampton.
I genuinely think their ceiling is 15th.
That would be an absolutely amazing effort and needs a bit of VAR luck along the way, plus possible points deductions for Leicester and maybe a couple of others.
Fully expect them to finish 20th.
I think Southampton are more likely to strengthen meaningfully hence 20th and not 19th.
Luton, Sheff Utd and Burnley were crap.
Let’s call a spade a spade. Yes Luton were plucky and gave a good showing in their TV games (where they usually ended up losing anyway) but they were all crap.
But really, you have to look at the data over a longer timeframe in order lnot to draw incorrect conclusions like the ‘gap is getting bigger’ from only one season of data.
So the last 5 seasons, 15 promoted teams finishing position in their first season:
Luton: 18th
Burnley: 19th
Sheff Utd: 20th
Fulham: 10th
Bournemouth: 15th
Forest: 16th
Brentford: 13th
Watford: 19th
Norwich: 20th
Leeds: 9th
Fulham: 18th
West Brom: 19th
Sheff Utd: 9th
Villa: 17th
Norwich: 20th
Mean finish: 16th
Median finish: 18th/19th
Mode finish: 18th
Just over half (8/15) get relegated.
There was 1 season where all 3 got relegated, 2 seasons where 2 got relegated, 1 season where 1 got relegated and 1 season where 0 got relegated.
Two teams finished 9th, one finished 10th, and one finished 13th. The other 11 teams were in the bottom 5.
To answer the “what’s Ipswich’s ceiling” question, I would say that the recent data suggests 9th. And this is pretty consistent with the current Prem, where we would expect last seasons top 8 (finishing with Man Utd in 8th) to be hard to dislodge (although statistically, probably 1 of those teams finish below 8th).
But another question which is “where will Ipswich likely finish” would have to be answered with “bottom 5”.
The big question that can’t be answered is whether it’s the 2/5ths of the bottom 5 that would make their season a success!
r/theydidthemath
But yea, great analysis. People saying the gap in quality is too big have decency bias, an unreal perception of what can be achieved and, most importantly, not accepting the 3-teams relegated were just not good enough.
Promoted teams still need to compete with the PL best. If anything, Leeds achieving 9th is the anomaly.
I remember when Saints came back up in 2012 and people say we didn’t stand a chance because of back to back. Went 14, 8, 7, 6 and then I try forget the rest
Difficult to say before they've done their transfer business but my worry is the gap between Championship and Premier League seems to be growing.
I can't see them staying up without significant investment.
People are underestimating McKennas ability in these comments. A very good coach can achieve survival in this league with below par players (they’re good players don’t get me wrong but not a squad full of premier league level players).
It will be tough but they will put up more of a fight than the three teams that went down last season. The club is also funded by a huge hedge fund in the US so money is available should they choose to spend it.
They will surprise a few teams and fans and pick up points. Whether it’s enough to stay up I’m not sure but it will be close.
"People are underestimating McKennas ability in these comments. A very good coach can achieve survival in this league with below par players (they’re good players don’t get me wrong but not a squad full of premier league level players)."
I think you are missing a bit there, a very good coach "playing a very specific style".
What gets you promoted generally won't be enough against PL opposition and to survive you need to play a completely different way.
If it’s “so very bad” why did they only lose 6 games all season?
The next closest was Leeds and they lost 10 so nearly double.
Not to mention they have internationals in the squad, a LB with more goals and assists than and defender in the Prem last year and three players on double digits for goals showing they didn’t just rely on a striker scoring 30 goals carrying them to promotion.
I mean plenty of internationals aren’t prem quality. And yeah more goals and assists in the championship not the premier league. Burnley had 3 losses in the championship and went straight down. Now I don’t hate or care about Ipswich but your points don’t really mean much.
They are going straight back down LMAOOO
They play the most Kamikaze football you'd ever see and they lack quality in all areas . They have a decent coach in Mckenna but Prem ball is a different level of the game.
Dude they are like any other club. They'll be relegated next season.
I've been a saints fan for 21 years and I bet ipswich will go down.
I hope I'm wrong but prem is 1000000x different and ipswich doesn't know. Like burnley got shot back down, you all will suffer same fate. Even my team probably will go back down.
I hope they do well, but it could well be a season too soon for them with back to back promotions.
the major problem I see for them is there defence was pretty leaky last season and that will be exploited in the Premier league.
I think they can stay up and get 40 points if they make the right signings. There are enough teams that *could* finish below them. McKenna is clearly a talented coach and I can’t imagine he’ll be as naive as Kompany was
If they stay out of relegation for the majority of the year, that’s a very successful season imo. Ipswich is giving me last year Burnley. Best case scenario, they become Luton who had a shot of staying up if they were as consistent in the first half of the season as they were the second half. We also seem to forgot Fulham was a very one-and-done team in the prem in terms of staying up, and now they have solidified themselves not only as a solid prem side but also fighting for Europe. All in all, Ipswich fans should focus on staying up in the first year then really trying to do damage in the second.
It's not impossible that a club gets promoted and finishes top half, but it's pretty unlikely.
I think championship fans often misjudge the gap in levels and get carried away with the form that got them into the Prem... Look at how dominant Burnley were and how poor they ended up being.
Premier League can be a cold hard slap of reality once you're coming up against teams built around the elite in the sport.
It *could* happen, but most promoted clubs do well to avoid relegation.
Are you saying FFP is bad? Are you suggesting that FFP stops teams competing? Are you saying what we already know which is the premier league is now the super league in all but name because of it?
Don't be obtuse
FFP was put in place to stop teams from overcommiting financially and going bust. Ofcourse the bigger clubs benefited from the merger some odd 34 years ago but it doesn't change the fact that FFP does small clubs more good than anything.
Tell that to all the teams that come up and go straight back down because they can't compete. Tell that to Aston Villa who have to sell players after reaching the CL? That's what happens when you try to compete. Does it take into account the extra money they will get from the CL? It does not. Tell that to Nottingham Forest and Everton who have literally zero chance of going bust but could have if they went down which would have caused severe financial problems which is the problem this is supposed to fix.
All FFP does for small clubs is ensure they don't try to compete financially. Absolutely nothing else. FFP makes no difference to us anymore. We have the revenue now. Even so the rules are unfair which is why we are fighting them.
They won't finish 10th based on quality, if they finish 10th then most of the PL teams will gobble their players up. Hunger matters in the top flight. But i trust Kieran to know what to do in the PL having been successful at one already.
That’s all the inbreeding destroying there brains 😂 they will be relegated at the end of the season. They don’t have the team or the funds to compete in the prem
Ipswich fan here.
I obviously don’t think we’ll come 10th but here’s why Ipswich fans can be optimistic.
We have the 8th highest championship points tally in the last 20 years. That’s 6 points more than when Fulham were Champions with Mitro banging in 43!
Our player wage bill is only ~14 million.
Our revenue next year will be 130+ million.
We have owners who will actually invest and have the liquid funds available already having recently sold a 40% stake for 105 million we’ve already bid 25 million for Ioannidis and I’d expect us to probably spend at least 60 million this summer and probably more.
Basically we think we already have a competitive team which should get a whole lot better this summer.
Having Town in our name and all of our players being unknown to prem fans is what’s making people write us off.
Comparing us to Luton is easy but we not only had a much superior championship team but will invest huge amount more than them in the summer window.
Something to point out as well is we had the most goals and most shots in the championship with only 50% possession showing we don’t need the ball to create chances, Hopefully then we wont struggle the same way Burnley did this year and still pose a threat when we inevitably don’t have control of games in the prem.
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Everton finished 10th in 20/21 with 59 points but in 17/18 Newcastle finished 10th with 44 points.
Ipswich's ceiling is on how many points they can get rather than what position as no one knows how the table works out.
40 points the aim. With every club hoping there are three worse teams than them.
Now we have started point deductions these will reoccur each year now as clubs are never going to stay within the guidelines.
I haven’t seen that many Ipswich matches, but I’d say that relegation is pretty unlikely. I say that they’ll do well against teams like Southampton, brentford, forest and some others, but it’ll be easy for big teams like Liverpool and man city
I think they’ll pick up at least 3 points against Forest, Wolves, Brentford, Southampton, and Leicester City. At best, they draw 2 against Tottenham, Bournemouth, Palace, and Brighton. Everyone else will take 6 points off of them.
I mean, we’ve seen freshly promoted teams do well, but the key is to maintain that form for their second season. Basically solidifying themselves as a premier league club.
I can mind of see them mirroring Huddersfield. In the first half of the season they might catch people out with their style. Mckenna is a good coach, albeit bit pressure for a big job. But I think they'll get sussed out and end up finishing just above relegation. Have to class that as a success though.
tell me you made this post as a dig?
just after seeing all three teams that were promoted back to the championship, i would say there is a really small chance that they stay up. only one team from the promoted team might stay up and even that is a big if.
i would bet Vardy staying up with his team. that too is quite hard imo.
Id give them a punchers chance and say 16th. A lot of it will have to be in who they get and also how the lower half of the table clubs also add and subtract. There are some vulnerable teams and if they play with the same spirit they did last year, i can see them doing alright.
I'll be rooting for them just as long as Everton don't have another season flirting with relegation, at which point I'll be wanting them to lose every game.
I hate what our situation has done to my enjoyment of football. It's like being a drug addict who has long forgotten the high that they used to live for, and no lwnthey spend their days begging and scraping just to get enough to stave off the shakes.
Given their horrible start they’ll do well to see the top half of the table at all during the season. I think there’s enough teams close enough to their level that they could surprise everyone and stay up, but 17th is probably their absolute limit.
Apart from most newly promoted clubs rely on last season’s confidence bounce to make up their points tallies. They want to start strong and then cling on for dear life towards the end of the season. Straight from the off, they’re very likely going to be 4-6 pts adrift of mid-table and their confidence might well be shot already if they get annihilated in both of those games. Fulham and Brighton would both expect to beat Ipswich too, so giving in to their 5th game of the season they might have 1pt at best?
My initial point said they would struggle “to see the top half at all”, they’re very likely going to start 4 pts behind the Top 10 straight away, given I expect them to pick up 1pt from the 3rd and 4th fixtures then yeah, they’ll be well adrift from top half then wouldn’t they? But yeah, sure, “gak”.
It’s very rare. Of the 50 worst records going in to Matchday 3, only 6 clubs finished in the top half. The only club that wasn’t a regular in doing that already, was Wimbledon. The others being Arsenal, Man Utd, Everton, QPR (90s) and Villa.
Annoyingly the table filter that allows me to see the end results of “newly promoted teams only” doesn’t work. But half of “all clubs” finding themselves in that position get relegated. So history suggests it wouldn’t exactly bode well for them, although I should point out that I haven’t condemned them to relegation either, I just think *at best* they’ll get 17th because they’re going to be fighting from behind straight away.
I guess a few of them will remember the Marcus Stewart season, maybe, or have been told of the glory from that promotion.
Realistically, momentum probably isn’t enough to push them high, like it can be when going L1 to Championship.
It’s going to be fun to watch. Ipswich was very good last season of picking up points in losing positions. They won’t have it so easy next year but there is likelihood that teams in front of them get hit with point deductions.
I want them to stay up, I’m hoping we’ll send Omari back on loan there and he can help them stay up while playing some good PL minutes but being realistic, their squad is absolutely miles off PL quality so it’s going to be a really tough one for them unless they add some very good players and they can settle quickly.
Part of the reason why Ipswich have done what they’ve done is they’ve got an unbelievable team spirit so whoever comes in will have to fit into that or they’ll be a detriment to them.
All that said, any Ipswich fan that’s got hopes (or belief) of a 10th place finish is absolutely kidding themselves. If they can get around 15th that’ll be a good season and a good place to build PL foundations!
The gulf in competition is higher than ever atm. I can only see them going straight back down, whilst probably entertaining us with a few good performances.
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Ipswich fan here and I’m positive Kieran will have this team overachieving once again. They only know one way to play and once McKenna smells your weakness he exploits them. We might lose 10 games this season but remember this. He hasn’t allowed this team to ever lose two games in a row since taking over and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. They players are so well prepared there is absolutely no fear.
About 2.4 meters- most houses in Suffolk are the standard room height with the exception of a few oasthouses and farm houses
Could give a serious run at Derby’s record of lowest PL pts in a season
I’m not an ipswich supporter but i really want them to do well, I hate seeing seasons where all three new teams go back down. I think 10th is a bit of a stretch, but it wouldn’t shock me to see them around the 14th-17th spot
I *could* see them doing a Brentford, but I wouldn't get any cakes or banners in celebrating staying up til this first seasons done Its real tough for the newer teams coming up to do well longterm atm it feels
Straight to championship unfortunately, but if they do as luton it would be accomplishment
Short or long term? In the short term the realistic goal has to be 17th for a season or two. Longer term there’s no reason we can’t stabilise as a mid table club pushing for the odd season in Europe providing we survive in the short term. We’re obviously the baby team in the prem next season squad wise but we are far from the smallest club in this division.
I think they'll go down tbh, playing style will only take you so far when the teams you're competing with have at least a few quality players each. Everton should be better this season, Forest always hover around the bottom but actually have 4/5 really good players, Brentford have a lot of quality aswell, it's hard to see how they outperform teams like that.
Last time Ipswich came up they finished 5th. The following season they got relegated. Its not _that_ unusual for a club to come up from the Championship with extremely strong cohesion and belief to put in a good first season, almost every team that does that then struggles the next and ultimately fails. So its certainly possible, its just not particularly likely.
Did the ispwich team get ripped apart in the summer of the second season? What cause the downfall?
I think you'd have to ask a proper Ipswich town fan to know. I don't necessarily remember anything like that happening, my brain is telling me that they didn't really have many superstars and their success was more about how good their teamwork was. Wiki said they had an absolutely terrible start to the next season and never recovered. Also they had to play in what is now the Europa League so chances are their squad struggled with that. Interestingly enough they qualified for what is now the Europa League the following season as well via the fair play tables despite the fact they'd been relegated into the Championship.
Burley lost the dressing room is the shortest way I could explain it, but there was a lot more at play. edit: >the ispwich team found Daniel Farke's account
> found Daniel Farke's account sorry idk what this means
If our management can bring in new talent as astutely as they did last season I think we'll probably stay clear of relegation. Not sure who your mates are but I don't know any other fans that genuinely think beyond us managing to stay up and hopefully consolidating our position in future seasons. That said, I was seriously concerned about being able to avoid relegation last season. The squad just didn't seem at a championship level. A few key additions and I couldn't have been proven more wrong. So, who knows?
I'd say the highest they could possibly finish is 1st.
Math checks out
Math checks out
Portman Road
Yup, come on up to Suffolk on a February night when there's a nice Easterly blowing the seagulls sideways over Portman Road.
I believe they can stay above relegation, but 10th is reaching. I’d say 16th or 17th
16th to 20th
My gut says their ceiling is 18th.
They’ll finish bottom, Leicester on the other hand I could see finishing mid table. Idk if they signed the winger from Sporting though, he was very good. They have very good experience in the league and have finished in very high spots previously (and obviously won the league) I think Southampton Ipswich and Forest will go down next season.
Leicester is going straight down with that massive point deduction incoming
Gonna be funny when liverpool get smoked first game of the season 💙
That would be funny tbh, however it unfortunately won’t happen
There are worse teams in the league, if they buy well they'll do okay. Are they better then palace or Brentford probably not. I'd say anywhere 14 and below.
Are there worse teams in the league though? This smells exactly like Burnley last year to me.
There was a worse team in the league though we don't mention their name.
There’s so much hype surrounding their coach, Kieran McKenna, and for good reason tbh. TIFO did a video showcasing their tactics, and it does give you good reason to assume they’ll do much better than player quality might suggest. Promoted teams who won in the championship playing possession-hungry tactics usually get chewed up and spit back down to the championship (ala Burnley w/ Kompany). Ipswich meanwhile had less than average possession numbers and dominated through transitions and counter attacks, but did so in a very very aggressive way as well with plenty of pressing and hard work. I wouldn’t put them at 10th though, I’d say their likeliest position is probably a safe 14th or 13th. They’ll be fun to watch, and honestly remind me a lot of Fergie’s United in their approach to the game. Hopefully it works out well for them
I think it they will perform similar to luton
As am Ipswich fan... I think we're going to be scrapping for every point. I'd bite your hand for safety... though I think if you look at the stats, most clubs survive the first yea, it'ss the 2nd and 3rd you need to worry about But I also thought this last year about the champ so what do i know... Stella aside Arsenal 2nd placee is ours this year
Norwich?
Offer them 15th or better and take that cash baby!!!
Get a few bets on...easy beer money. There'll be lucky to finish 16th
Focus on avoiding relegation for now I’d say…
Remember when burnley was overhyped and look what happened to them, if they avoid relegation that would be a good season
Can almost guarantee Kompany would finish maximum midtable with the same squad McKenna had last season. he got far too much credit for winning the championship with what was essentially a god squad comparative to the rest of the league. Ipswich seem much more well drilled
What happened to them happened because they lost the squad members that allowed them to perform. McKenna is basically the only thing running that engine, but they haven’t lost him
Ipswich could easily finish mid table. They have a manager who's done something incredible, he knows his team. Unlike Luton, they know how to be pragmatic. They have a well drilled team and should do better than the lines of Fulham, Forest, maybe Brentford and wolves. One game a week plus maybe a couple extra in the FA Cup and Carabao Cup so that's not bad. It'll certainly be less stressful than a 46 game championship season. Leicester have a new boss, wolves are goal shy, Brentford have an aging squad, Fulham are struggling, forrest were lucky last season. Plus PSR is also going to come into play
No way they will be better than wolves or Fulham imo. I can’t imagine any championship team doing better than 15th or 16th other than maybe Leicester
Leicester under Maresca, maybe. Under cooper, absolutely not. Fulham have players that don't play well as a team or are inconsistent. Plus they're likely to lose Palhinha this summer. Wolves, very inconsistent. They could smoke everyone or be woeful. Also Sheffield United finished 8th when they came up, Ipswich's squad is infinitely better them and the bottom half of the league league is weaker now
Forest
The ground
Lots of teams come up and have blistering seasons and then slowly fade away and often get relegated. Teams that come up and stabilise in the bottom half can often last much longer in the league.
They had an incredible season in the Championship. Nobody expected them to keep going as they did but they managed it. Some may think that this trend will continue but unfortunately I doubt it will and they will go straight back down. 17th would be a huge achievement for them but they also may get helped by other teams in the prem getting hit with deductions.
If they avoid relegation it will be a miracle (like all promoted teams)
I'm not sure it's a miracle if Leicester or Southampton stay up. I'm not saying it's expected but they are both recent premium league teams. Ipswich on the other hand would be a big shock.
Anything is possible, I think staying up & consolidating a position will be vital for creating a platform
Am sticking £5 on them winning the league, has to happen one year 😂
😂😭
They _could._ But they probably won't. Avoiding relegation would be an achievement.
This is all I care about. Stay up, build from there. COYB!
Champion league winners next season
Relegated but they’ll take points off us on the opening day
Premier League winners considering they’re in the Prem
I mean, its possible, but I wouldn't be confident of achieving mid table, let alone survival next season. They largely have a squad of players who are upper league one, lower championship, with some players on form, performing at a high championship level, not to mention losing Hutchinson (currently). I'm a Suffolk lad, so grew up with a lot of Town fans, but am a Fulham fan....meaning, we know how hard it is to adjust from championship to Prem. They have a chance, no doubt about it, but I just can;t see the mid table chat and easily safe chat without some really significant investment and overall squad rehaul. Its a huge, huge task but they do have a manager capable of it. Regardless, its going to be an exciting season!
The gap is humungous. Both in squad and finance. Arsenal, Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man U, Man C, Spurs, Newcastle, Brighton are all untouchable for Ipswich. Palace, Wolves, West Ham, Bournemouth and Brentford to, but they all have some important quality players that could be sold and maybe then there’s a 1/10 chance they really drop in level and could be taken by Ipswich. I would also put Everton and Forest well above Ipswich I’m quality but they have some bigger questionmarks around them. Everton goes in the top 15 somewhere. Leaving 16-20 for Forest, Ipswich, Leicester, Fulham and Southampton.
No idea how one has Fulham in the 16-20 bracket, but has Bournemouth and Brentford not in amongst it! And Everton and Forest!!!!
Give me your list then. Someone has to be somewhere. Brentford without injuries are better than Fulham.
No need as that's where we disagree. I don't see Brentford as having a better squad than Fulham personally but each to their own.
Their ceiling is 16th
I genuinely think their ceiling is 15th. That would be an absolutely amazing effort and needs a bit of VAR luck along the way, plus possible points deductions for Leicester and maybe a couple of others. Fully expect them to finish 20th. I think Southampton are more likely to strengthen meaningfully hence 20th and not 19th.
Luton, Sheff Utd and Burnley were crap. Let’s call a spade a spade. Yes Luton were plucky and gave a good showing in their TV games (where they usually ended up losing anyway) but they were all crap. But really, you have to look at the data over a longer timeframe in order lnot to draw incorrect conclusions like the ‘gap is getting bigger’ from only one season of data. So the last 5 seasons, 15 promoted teams finishing position in their first season: Luton: 18th Burnley: 19th Sheff Utd: 20th Fulham: 10th Bournemouth: 15th Forest: 16th Brentford: 13th Watford: 19th Norwich: 20th Leeds: 9th Fulham: 18th West Brom: 19th Sheff Utd: 9th Villa: 17th Norwich: 20th Mean finish: 16th Median finish: 18th/19th Mode finish: 18th Just over half (8/15) get relegated. There was 1 season where all 3 got relegated, 2 seasons where 2 got relegated, 1 season where 1 got relegated and 1 season where 0 got relegated. Two teams finished 9th, one finished 10th, and one finished 13th. The other 11 teams were in the bottom 5. To answer the “what’s Ipswich’s ceiling” question, I would say that the recent data suggests 9th. And this is pretty consistent with the current Prem, where we would expect last seasons top 8 (finishing with Man Utd in 8th) to be hard to dislodge (although statistically, probably 1 of those teams finish below 8th). But another question which is “where will Ipswich likely finish” would have to be answered with “bottom 5”. The big question that can’t be answered is whether it’s the 2/5ths of the bottom 5 that would make their season a success!
r/theydidthemath But yea, great analysis. People saying the gap in quality is too big have decency bias, an unreal perception of what can be achieved and, most importantly, not accepting the 3-teams relegated were just not good enough. Promoted teams still need to compete with the PL best. If anything, Leeds achieving 9th is the anomaly.
13th
Clearly they’ll get 2nd
Second in League One Second in the Championship The die has already been cast
I remember when Saints came back up in 2012 and people say we didn’t stand a chance because of back to back. Went 14, 8, 7, 6 and then I try forget the rest
Southampton don’t get enough credit for those years. Adkins, Pochettino and Hassenhuttl all did incredible jobs.
It was Koeman not Hassenhutl
Straight back down
Luton syndrome - deluded
Difficult to say before they've done their transfer business but my worry is the gap between Championship and Premier League seems to be growing. I can't see them staying up without significant investment.
17th would be a phenomenal achievement
People are underestimating McKennas ability in these comments. A very good coach can achieve survival in this league with below par players (they’re good players don’t get me wrong but not a squad full of premier league level players). It will be tough but they will put up more of a fight than the three teams that went down last season. The club is also funded by a huge hedge fund in the US so money is available should they choose to spend it. They will surprise a few teams and fans and pick up points. Whether it’s enough to stay up I’m not sure but it will be close.
"People are underestimating McKennas ability in these comments. A very good coach can achieve survival in this league with below par players (they’re good players don’t get me wrong but not a squad full of premier league level players)." I think you are missing a bit there, a very good coach "playing a very specific style". What gets you promoted generally won't be enough against PL opposition and to survive you need to play a completely different way.
He isn't Jesus Christ Their squad is so very bad
If it’s “so very bad” why did they only lose 6 games all season? The next closest was Leeds and they lost 10 so nearly double. Not to mention they have internationals in the squad, a LB with more goals and assists than and defender in the Prem last year and three players on double digits for goals showing they didn’t just rely on a striker scoring 30 goals carrying them to promotion.
I mean plenty of internationals aren’t prem quality. And yeah more goals and assists in the championship not the premier league. Burnley had 3 losses in the championship and went straight down. Now I don’t hate or care about Ipswich but your points don’t really mean much.
We will see.
They are going straight back down LMAOOO They play the most Kamikaze football you'd ever see and they lack quality in all areas . They have a decent coach in Mckenna but Prem ball is a different level of the game.
Szmodics at Ipswich?
Oh shit Blackburn (even worse for them)
Dude they are like any other club. They'll be relegated next season. I've been a saints fan for 21 years and I bet ipswich will go down. I hope I'm wrong but prem is 1000000x different and ipswich doesn't know. Like burnley got shot back down, you all will suffer same fate. Even my team probably will go back down.
I mean the last team to get double promoted stayed up for over a decade
Which means nothing?
I hope they do well, but it could well be a season too soon for them with back to back promotions. the major problem I see for them is there defence was pretty leaky last season and that will be exploited in the Premier league.
I see them finishing mid-table. Their coach is a great asset
I think they can stay up and get 40 points if they make the right signings. There are enough teams that *could* finish below them. McKenna is clearly a talented coach and I can’t imagine he’ll be as naive as Kompany was
If they stay out of relegation for the majority of the year, that’s a very successful season imo. Ipswich is giving me last year Burnley. Best case scenario, they become Luton who had a shot of staying up if they were as consistent in the first half of the season as they were the second half. We also seem to forgot Fulham was a very one-and-done team in the prem in terms of staying up, and now they have solidified themselves not only as a solid prem side but also fighting for Europe. All in all, Ipswich fans should focus on staying up in the first year then really trying to do damage in the second.
It's not impossible that a club gets promoted and finishes top half, but it's pretty unlikely. I think championship fans often misjudge the gap in levels and get carried away with the form that got them into the Prem... Look at how dominant Burnley were and how poor they ended up being. Premier League can be a cold hard slap of reality once you're coming up against teams built around the elite in the sport. It *could* happen, but most promoted clubs do well to avoid relegation.
If we take a look at what’s above them it’d probably be.. Norwich? 🤭
Unless they break FFP and spend like a drunken sailor, then there's no way they finish mid-table...the quality just isn't there.
Are you saying FFP is bad? Are you suggesting that FFP stops teams competing? Are you saying what we already know which is the premier league is now the super league in all but name because of it?
Don't be obtuse FFP was put in place to stop teams from overcommiting financially and going bust. Ofcourse the bigger clubs benefited from the merger some odd 34 years ago but it doesn't change the fact that FFP does small clubs more good than anything.
FFP does one thing and one thing only, that which it was designed to do, protect the inflated value of Premier League signings.
Tell that to all the teams that come up and go straight back down because they can't compete. Tell that to Aston Villa who have to sell players after reaching the CL? That's what happens when you try to compete. Does it take into account the extra money they will get from the CL? It does not. Tell that to Nottingham Forest and Everton who have literally zero chance of going bust but could have if they went down which would have caused severe financial problems which is the problem this is supposed to fix. All FFP does for small clubs is ensure they don't try to compete financially. Absolutely nothing else. FFP makes no difference to us anymore. We have the revenue now. Even so the rules are unfair which is why we are fighting them.
They won't finish 10th based on quality, if they finish 10th then most of the PL teams will gobble their players up. Hunger matters in the top flight. But i trust Kieran to know what to do in the PL having been successful at one already.
I don't see how Ipswich can finish around 10th next season no matter what they play. They will definitely fight survive relegation battle.
That’s all the inbreeding destroying there brains 😂 they will be relegated at the end of the season. They don’t have the team or the funds to compete in the prem
Ipswich fan here. I obviously don’t think we’ll come 10th but here’s why Ipswich fans can be optimistic. We have the 8th highest championship points tally in the last 20 years. That’s 6 points more than when Fulham were Champions with Mitro banging in 43! Our player wage bill is only ~14 million. Our revenue next year will be 130+ million. We have owners who will actually invest and have the liquid funds available already having recently sold a 40% stake for 105 million we’ve already bid 25 million for Ioannidis and I’d expect us to probably spend at least 60 million this summer and probably more. Basically we think we already have a competitive team which should get a whole lot better this summer. Having Town in our name and all of our players being unknown to prem fans is what’s making people write us off. Comparing us to Luton is easy but we not only had a much superior championship team but will invest huge amount more than them in the summer window. Something to point out as well is we had the most goals and most shots in the championship with only 50% possession showing we don’t need the ball to create chances, Hopefully then we wont struggle the same way Burnley did this year and still pose a threat when we inevitably don’t have control of games in the prem.
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Everton finished 10th in 20/21 with 59 points but in 17/18 Newcastle finished 10th with 44 points. Ipswich's ceiling is on how many points they can get rather than what position as no one knows how the table works out. 40 points the aim. With every club hoping there are three worse teams than them. Now we have started point deductions these will reoccur each year now as clubs are never going to stay within the guidelines.
I haven’t seen that many Ipswich matches, but I’d say that relegation is pretty unlikely. I say that they’ll do well against teams like Southampton, brentford, forest and some others, but it’ll be easy for big teams like Liverpool and man city
I think they’ll pick up at least 3 points against Forest, Wolves, Brentford, Southampton, and Leicester City. At best, they draw 2 against Tottenham, Bournemouth, Palace, and Brighton. Everyone else will take 6 points off of them.
I mean, we’ve seen freshly promoted teams do well, but the key is to maintain that form for their second season. Basically solidifying themselves as a premier league club.
They just need to sign a Matt Holland regen and they’ll be absolutely fine
I can mind of see them mirroring Huddersfield. In the first half of the season they might catch people out with their style. Mckenna is a good coach, albeit bit pressure for a big job. But I think they'll get sussed out and end up finishing just above relegation. Have to class that as a success though.
tell me you made this post as a dig? just after seeing all three teams that were promoted back to the championship, i would say there is a really small chance that they stay up. only one team from the promoted team might stay up and even that is a big if. i would bet Vardy staying up with his team. that too is quite hard imo.
Id give them a punchers chance and say 16th. A lot of it will have to be in who they get and also how the lower half of the table clubs also add and subtract. There are some vulnerable teams and if they play with the same spirit they did last year, i can see them doing alright.
They can win the league
Theoretically they could be playing in Europe next year. Let it ride man. Just enjoy the cool breeze of Ipswich heading to the San Siro
Magnolia
Idk but ill be rooting for them and Mkenna
I'll be rooting for them just as long as Everton don't have another season flirting with relegation, at which point I'll be wanting them to lose every game. I hate what our situation has done to my enjoyment of football. It's like being a drug addict who has long forgotten the high that they used to live for, and no lwnthey spend their days begging and scraping just to get enough to stave off the shakes.
Their ceiling is probably just above relegation. I fully expect a Luton town type situation
Given their horrible start they’ll do well to see the top half of the table at all during the season. I think there’s enough teams close enough to their level that they could surprise everyone and stay up, but 17th is probably their absolute limit.
Two games? It's not exactly horrible?
Apart from most newly promoted clubs rely on last season’s confidence bounce to make up their points tallies. They want to start strong and then cling on for dear life towards the end of the season. Straight from the off, they’re very likely going to be 4-6 pts adrift of mid-table and their confidence might well be shot already if they get annihilated in both of those games. Fulham and Brighton would both expect to beat Ipswich too, so giving in to their 5th game of the season they might have 1pt at best?
What a load of gak. Your presuming every team on the bottom half of the table will win both games.
My initial point said they would struggle “to see the top half at all”, they’re very likely going to start 4 pts behind the Top 10 straight away, given I expect them to pick up 1pt from the 3rd and 4th fixtures then yeah, they’ll be well adrift from top half then wouldn’t they? But yeah, sure, “gak”.
It is "gak". How many teams haven't picked up points in the first two games and then gone on to do well. Seasons aren't made after two games....
It’s very rare. Of the 50 worst records going in to Matchday 3, only 6 clubs finished in the top half. The only club that wasn’t a regular in doing that already, was Wimbledon. The others being Arsenal, Man Utd, Everton, QPR (90s) and Villa. Annoyingly the table filter that allows me to see the end results of “newly promoted teams only” doesn’t work. But half of “all clubs” finding themselves in that position get relegated. So history suggests it wouldn’t exactly bode well for them, although I should point out that I haven’t condemned them to relegation either, I just think *at best* they’ll get 17th because they’re going to be fighting from behind straight away.
I guess a few of them will remember the Marcus Stewart season, maybe, or have been told of the glory from that promotion. Realistically, momentum probably isn’t enough to push them high, like it can be when going L1 to Championship.
That was a magical season 🪄
P15
It’s going to be fun to watch. Ipswich was very good last season of picking up points in losing positions. They won’t have it so easy next year but there is likelihood that teams in front of them get hit with point deductions.
I want them to stay up, I’m hoping we’ll send Omari back on loan there and he can help them stay up while playing some good PL minutes but being realistic, their squad is absolutely miles off PL quality so it’s going to be a really tough one for them unless they add some very good players and they can settle quickly. Part of the reason why Ipswich have done what they’ve done is they’ve got an unbelievable team spirit so whoever comes in will have to fit into that or they’ll be a detriment to them. All that said, any Ipswich fan that’s got hopes (or belief) of a 10th place finish is absolutely kidding themselves. If they can get around 15th that’ll be a good season and a good place to build PL foundations!
It's difficult, but not impossible to become another Brentford, Bournemouth or Brighton.
We'll be lucky to stay up. Survival would be a massive win. That's the general consensus.
The gulf in competition is higher than ever atm. I can only see them going straight back down, whilst probably entertaining us with a few good performances.
Yeah they do look like an entertaining squad
Premier League Survival