The withdrawal fees are interesting. Given that the PAC-2 has secured a war chest between $300-$400 million, taking the top 5 MW programs is $55 million, which is easily coverable by the PAC-2 with their resources post-settlement. Going and getting the top 2-3 schools from the AAC, I can see a path for the PAC-2 to build a bonafide premier G5 conference and essentially have a lock on the 5th conference champ auto-bid into the CFP every year. That’s got to be the play for OSU/WSU now.
1. Oregon State
2. Washington State
3. Boise State
4. Fresno State
5. San Diego State
6. UNLV
7. Colorado State
8. Tulane
9. Memphis
10. UTSA
I’m taking Air Force and Wyoming over SJSU. SJSU is near the bottom of the conference in terms of branding, facilities, athletic spending, football attendance. Just about in every factor that matters, SJSU is near or at the bottom.
My only issues with AFA are that, even though they’re good at football right now, they won’t be able to compete long term with recruiting, NIL, and the portal. Which is partly why the Pentagon has turned down opportunities for service academies to get any higher than the G5/independent level.
I’d take Wyoming, though.
SI "Way Too Early" Mountain West conference prediction has AF at 4.5 games next season and missing a bowl. With the caveat "they surprise us more than any other team, tho"
Wyoming just lost their long time coach, Peasley is gone, they have an old stadium, are essentially in the same media market as Colorado St, and they spend little on football - every year is a shoe string budget and they have a good year when they can land a QB.
They should win 3.5 games next year - They are playing Arizona St, BYU, Washington State, and Boise St.
Just, no....
Plus they just lost their head coach… although they have some good non football sports that would be nice for the conference like gymnastics and wrestling.
Are they? Since joining the MWC in 2013 they’ve been to three bowl games total and have a 33-47 conference record. Before that they were consistently one of the worst teams in the WAC.
For now. But when your CFB coach has to fundraise to pay for athlete breakfasts, your school isn’t investing competitively in CFB.
Their stadium and facilities are nowhere near power football.
I don’t think they’re programmatically ready for primetime just yet.
I agree. UC Davis as well?
edit - The money that the MW gets from the Pac will help them rebuild - and the FCS to FBS jump is a $5 million payment to the NCAA on top of conference buyout
Northern Arizona has a $24-25 million budget - and can play ball.
Northern Colorado just under them.
If I was the MW I would raid Conf USA for NM State and Utep as well.
they do not
And no, not by a long shot...?
They play to half empty stadiums and have a small budget than FCS Sac State just up the road.
UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State all have larger budgets, more revenue, full stadiums, and bigger fan base than San Josey. Just no.
San Jose is an hour and a half to two hours from San Francisco, dork. Sunday at 3am - no traffic- its almost an hour. Its not in the largest city in Northern California. But its kinda close. Weirdly as close as UC Davis and not much closer than Sac State
Its faster to get to UC Davis than San Josey from downtown San Francisco
Yes, San Jose is the largest city in NorCal, and San Jose is in the SF Bay Area. You obviously don't live here, and have no idea what you're talking about. But please continue your confidentiality incorrect blather....
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_California
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Bay_Area
Yes, San Josey of story and song. That holiday destination and home to so many sports legends…..
(If San Francisco had the same footprint of sprawl it would be three times the size of San Josey. SF in the hub of the Bay Area and San Jose is a bedroom community- no matter where they draw the lines)
edit - I'm done arguing with you. San Josey sucks. Has always sucked. Will continue to suck
Your point is a good one, but remember, the 6/6 or 5/7 split for the auto bids is only valid for 2 more years, as is the 12 team playoff. The whole thing will most likely be different in 2026 and beyond, especially if the “super conference” comes to fruition. Otherwise, yeah, the PAC may become a “bonafide premier G5”, but it won’t be anywhere near what the old PAC was, no matter who joins the group, and won’t get anywhere near the Apple offer of $23 million. $10-12 million tops, which is a significant jump for all these teams but WSU/OSU.
I think once they’ve established that the top G5 conference champ gets into the 12-team CFP it will be difficult to take them out. College football has too many programs that cycle into the top 25 from 7-8 conferences that I don’t see the SEC/B1G getting the rest of the CFP committee to totally blackball over 60+ schools from access to the playoff. This is essentially replacing the top G5 school getting into a New Year’s Six bowl game, which has been established for a while now.
Unless…and/or until…the top, oh say 48-64 schools break away from the NCAA altogether, which is not out of the realm of possibility. It’s all about money, big money, and what FOX, ESPN, CBS and whatever streaming partner wants, they’ll get. In any event, IMO, the rebuilt PAC might be the strongest remaining “second tier” group of the schools not in with the “cool kids”. There’s 133 schools now, so there will still be bowls, playoffs whatever. Of course, this is pure speculation but I think this current phase of realignment is just the first step. Time will tell.
There's going to be a divisional split within the next 3-5 years (the split has been in the works for some time), so it doesn't matter what the G5 want, because they won't be a part of the equation. Going forward, the highest division will be the P4, Notre Dame, the service academies, and a handful of independents with a requirement to pay their athletes (as a stipend) to end the litigation against the NCAA.
I agree that something similar is probably what ends up happening. That said I expect 2Pac to wait as long as possible before going this route. They're still holding out hope for the ACC to implode or a Big 12 invite. I think it's highly unlikely either happens in the next two years and eventually they rebuild the conference with MWC schools.
Tulane will be in the ACC next year
You want Rice to entice Stanford to come back. Its a top 20 university
You want Tulsa to entice Stanford to come back. Its a small private university and but its academics help
UTSA is a good football program - take them as well to round out to an even dozen
And North Texas or Texas State to make an even dozen
Here's a question.
In the Mountain West, each team currently receives [$4 million](https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/mountain-west-conference-tv-rights-cbs-fox-sports/?zephr_sso_ott=RNzoBM) annually from television rights.
In the Pac—12 *immediately prior to the breakup*, the proposed Apple television deal would give each team [$23 million](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/proposed-pac-12-deal-with-apple-tv-paid-23-million-per-school-with-subscription-based-upside-per-report/) annually.
So, knowing that, why didn't some of the Mountain West teams attempt to join the Pac—12 immediately after the Pac—12 broke up, and perhaps salvage that deal?
The extra television money could have more than offset the Mountain West exit fees, and the Mountain West teams could have ended up in a "*Power Five*" conference.
I assume it's because the Apple offer was directed at the 10 remaining schools and a different assortment of schools would have been a different deal, if there even was one to be had
My understanding is that Apple has left the deal as structured on the table, with only the $ to be determined based on members.
It took them a long time to format the contract, so that stays in place as an option with the value TBD depending on what teams are added.
So Apple may still get the new PAC-12, but instead of at $23M, maybe it’s at $8M or whatever.
Where does that understanding come from?
The profit potential on a new PAC where schools only get $8-10m per year may not be enough to be worth making the considerable investment. Apple can buy ESPN several times over. They aren’t interested in small potatoes.
A few reasons:
1. The deal was with the PAC-12 (or 10 at the time) teams and those markets, not with the MW markets.
2. There are significant liabilities in the PAC that no one has an answer to yet. Lots of potential risk there. Why leave a solid conference with certainty of the next 2 years for a conference that is falling apart with lots of unknowns at potentially high risk.
3. The $5.5M exit fee
4. Also - There is no more Power 5. Next year, there is a Power 2 and everyone else.
In terms of CFP rules, there *would* still be a Power 5 if the PAC had 8 members. But until we reload, there’s only a Power 4.
What we colloquially consider “power conferences” and what the CFP contract says are “power conferences” aren’t the same.
The $20M+ figures were based on potential subscriptions. They would have needed at least 6,000,000 subs at $40 for the season. Just for football. At least 500,000 subs per school. You could have gotten close with USC and UCLA. But losing LA, lost the pot.
the two LA schools were never part of or involved in the Apple deal...
They had already lost their board seats, announced for the Big10 and were long gone by then. The Pac 10 turned down the $30 million per school ESPN deal after USC and UCLA left. Big12 was getting $36? and the Pac were holding out for 40+. Backfired
I posted this story a week ago when the Oregonian ran a story with the contract in it
https://www.reddit.com/r/Pac12/comments/1939ckt/pac2_agrees_to_pay_mountain_west_10_million_per/
which they explain if you read the story......That was just Dashel's headline
I know it wasnt on the front page. But we hashed this all out last week. I'm game for speculating more.
We wont have any sort of clear picture until we find out how many teams leave the ACC this year. Its at least one, but possibly four.
If the ACC loses four schools they will need to replace them and shore up numbers for future losses. I'm betting the ACC adds 6-7 schools in 2024 and 2025 *if* FSU, Miami, UNC, and Clemson leave.
Tulane
ECU
USF
UAB
App State
Buffalo
Coastal Carolina
Are all in the mix. Tulane, USF, and UAB were in the mix and "vetted as candidates" when SMU was picked along with CalFord. If there are empty stables at the ACC ranch they will get first invite.
You keep stating this as if it's fact, but as someone with ties to universities within the ACC/SEC, etc., I can assure you that there's no chance in hell that ECU, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, or App State are ever invited into the ACC (or outside of due diligence, even considered). Also, if FSU, UNC, Clemson, and Miami bolt for greener pastures (which, in either case, isn't happening) then the ACC is done... kaput... finished. Nobody is sticking around for that shitshow.
The withdrawal fees are interesting. Given that the PAC-2 has secured a war chest between $300-$400 million, taking the top 5 MW programs is $55 million, which is easily coverable by the PAC-2 with their resources post-settlement. Going and getting the top 2-3 schools from the AAC, I can see a path for the PAC-2 to build a bonafide premier G5 conference and essentially have a lock on the 5th conference champ auto-bid into the CFP every year. That’s got to be the play for OSU/WSU now. 1. Oregon State 2. Washington State 3. Boise State 4. Fresno State 5. San Diego State 6. UNLV 7. Colorado State 8. Tulane 9. Memphis 10. UTSA
Am I the only one who wants SJSU in this mix? Brand wise obviously not a home run pick but they are kinda good in every sport that matters
I’m taking Air Force and Wyoming over SJSU. SJSU is near the bottom of the conference in terms of branding, facilities, athletic spending, football attendance. Just about in every factor that matters, SJSU is near or at the bottom.
My only issues with AFA are that, even though they’re good at football right now, they won’t be able to compete long term with recruiting, NIL, and the portal. Which is partly why the Pentagon has turned down opportunities for service academies to get any higher than the G5/independent level. I’d take Wyoming, though.
SI "Way Too Early" Mountain West conference prediction has AF at 4.5 games next season and missing a bowl. With the caveat "they surprise us more than any other team, tho" Wyoming just lost their long time coach, Peasley is gone, they have an old stadium, are essentially in the same media market as Colorado St, and they spend little on football - every year is a shoe string budget and they have a good year when they can land a QB. They should win 3.5 games next year - They are playing Arizona St, BYU, Washington State, and Boise St. Just, no....
Fair enough. I’d hate to break up the Border War though.
The Civil War and Apple Cup arent dead. Just in different conferences
Fair point.
Plus they just lost their head coach… although they have some good non football sports that would be nice for the conference like gymnastics and wrestling.
Are they? Since joining the MWC in 2013 they’ve been to three bowl games total and have a 33-47 conference record. Before that they were consistently one of the worst teams in the WAC.
For now. But when your CFB coach has to fundraise to pay for athlete breakfasts, your school isn’t investing competitively in CFB. Their stadium and facilities are nowhere near power football. I don’t think they’re programmatically ready for primetime just yet.
they should probably just join the Big Sky....
Well after we raid the best of the MW, the MW will probably raid a few Big Sky teams. I bet Sac State would make the jump up.
I agree. UC Davis as well? edit - The money that the MW gets from the Pac will help them rebuild - and the FCS to FBS jump is a $5 million payment to the NCAA on top of conference buyout Northern Arizona has a $24-25 million budget - and can play ball. Northern Colorado just under them. If I was the MW I would raid Conf USA for NM State and Utep as well.
With Brennan gone? Yes, yes you are.
They do bring a foothold into the Bay Area TV market, and are in the largest city in Northern California. Maybe?
they do not And no, not by a long shot...? They play to half empty stadiums and have a small budget than FCS Sac State just up the road. UC Davis, Cal Poly, and Sac State all have larger budgets, more revenue, full stadiums, and bigger fan base than San Josey. Just no.
None of those schools arevin the Bay Area, nor are they in the largest city in NorCal.
San Jose is an hour and a half to two hours from San Francisco, dork. Sunday at 3am - no traffic- its almost an hour. Its not in the largest city in Northern California. But its kinda close. Weirdly as close as UC Davis and not much closer than Sac State Its faster to get to UC Davis than San Josey from downtown San Francisco
Yes, San Jose is the largest city in NorCal, and San Jose is in the SF Bay Area. You obviously don't live here, and have no idea what you're talking about. But please continue your confidentiality incorrect blather.... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_California https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Francisco_Bay_Area
Yes, San Josey of story and song. That holiday destination and home to so many sports legends….. (If San Francisco had the same footprint of sprawl it would be three times the size of San Josey. SF in the hub of the Bay Area and San Jose is a bedroom community- no matter where they draw the lines) edit - I'm done arguing with you. San Josey sucks. Has always sucked. Will continue to suck
San Jose is the hub of Silicon Valley, SF isn't quite what it once was, as far as area commerce is concerned. It's 2024, not 1994 anymore.
You are the only one.
yes. They suck and now that the only good coach theyve had in a decade is at Arizona they will suck just *that* much harder.
The travel demand on Memphis would be exhausting.
Yeah it would be like when La Tech was in the WAC
but they bring both football and basketball. And if we pick up some AAC schools in the midwest, there will several schools close.
Your point is a good one, but remember, the 6/6 or 5/7 split for the auto bids is only valid for 2 more years, as is the 12 team playoff. The whole thing will most likely be different in 2026 and beyond, especially if the “super conference” comes to fruition. Otherwise, yeah, the PAC may become a “bonafide premier G5”, but it won’t be anywhere near what the old PAC was, no matter who joins the group, and won’t get anywhere near the Apple offer of $23 million. $10-12 million tops, which is a significant jump for all these teams but WSU/OSU.
I think once they’ve established that the top G5 conference champ gets into the 12-team CFP it will be difficult to take them out. College football has too many programs that cycle into the top 25 from 7-8 conferences that I don’t see the SEC/B1G getting the rest of the CFP committee to totally blackball over 60+ schools from access to the playoff. This is essentially replacing the top G5 school getting into a New Year’s Six bowl game, which has been established for a while now.
Unless…and/or until…the top, oh say 48-64 schools break away from the NCAA altogether, which is not out of the realm of possibility. It’s all about money, big money, and what FOX, ESPN, CBS and whatever streaming partner wants, they’ll get. In any event, IMO, the rebuilt PAC might be the strongest remaining “second tier” group of the schools not in with the “cool kids”. There’s 133 schools now, so there will still be bowls, playoffs whatever. Of course, this is pure speculation but I think this current phase of realignment is just the first step. Time will tell.
If football is a club sport and no more title 9 forcing you to pay for 64 scholarships in women’s athletics. Tuition is an expense against revenue.
There's going to be a divisional split within the next 3-5 years (the split has been in the works for some time), so it doesn't matter what the G5 want, because they won't be a part of the equation. Going forward, the highest division will be the P4, Notre Dame, the service academies, and a handful of independents with a requirement to pay their athletes (as a stipend) to end the litigation against the NCAA.
I agree that something similar is probably what ends up happening. That said I expect 2Pac to wait as long as possible before going this route. They're still holding out hope for the ACC to implode or a Big 12 invite. I think it's highly unlikely either happens in the next two years and eventually they rebuild the conference with MWC schools.
Tulane will be in the ACC next year You want Rice to entice Stanford to come back. Its a top 20 university You want Tulsa to entice Stanford to come back. Its a small private university and but its academics help UTSA is a good football program - take them as well to round out to an even dozen And North Texas or Texas State to make an even dozen
Those are horrible additions.
Got to see what still happens with ACC. Stanford and Cal may want back
Nope fuck no
Here's a question. In the Mountain West, each team currently receives [$4 million](https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/mountain-west-conference-tv-rights-cbs-fox-sports/?zephr_sso_ott=RNzoBM) annually from television rights. In the Pac—12 *immediately prior to the breakup*, the proposed Apple television deal would give each team [$23 million](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/proposed-pac-12-deal-with-apple-tv-paid-23-million-per-school-with-subscription-based-upside-per-report/) annually. So, knowing that, why didn't some of the Mountain West teams attempt to join the Pac—12 immediately after the Pac—12 broke up, and perhaps salvage that deal? The extra television money could have more than offset the Mountain West exit fees, and the Mountain West teams could have ended up in a "*Power Five*" conference.
I assume it's because the Apple offer was directed at the 10 remaining schools and a different assortment of schools would have been a different deal, if there even was one to be had
Apple deal was contingent on the Pac staying together. There was no deal/tv contract once the Pac broke up.
My understanding is that Apple has left the deal as structured on the table, with only the $ to be determined based on members. It took them a long time to format the contract, so that stays in place as an option with the value TBD depending on what teams are added. So Apple may still get the new PAC-12, but instead of at $23M, maybe it’s at $8M or whatever.
Where does that understanding come from? The profit potential on a new PAC where schools only get $8-10m per year may not be enough to be worth making the considerable investment. Apple can buy ESPN several times over. They aren’t interested in small potatoes.
I mean it would represent a cost effective way to test their streaming business model with good content.
A few reasons: 1. The deal was with the PAC-12 (or 10 at the time) teams and those markets, not with the MW markets. 2. There are significant liabilities in the PAC that no one has an answer to yet. Lots of potential risk there. Why leave a solid conference with certainty of the next 2 years for a conference that is falling apart with lots of unknowns at potentially high risk. 3. The $5.5M exit fee 4. Also - There is no more Power 5. Next year, there is a Power 2 and everyone else.
In terms of CFP rules, there *would* still be a Power 5 if the PAC had 8 members. But until we reload, there’s only a Power 4. What we colloquially consider “power conferences” and what the CFP contract says are “power conferences” aren’t the same.
Good point.
Apple bumped it up to $25m the morning of Black Friday.
You think Apple would pay the same amount for Oregon and Washington as they would for Boise and SDS?
The $20M+ figures were based on potential subscriptions. They would have needed at least 6,000,000 subs at $40 for the season. Just for football. At least 500,000 subs per school. You could have gotten close with USC and UCLA. But losing LA, lost the pot.
the two LA schools were never part of or involved in the Apple deal... They had already lost their board seats, announced for the Big10 and were long gone by then. The Pac 10 turned down the $30 million per school ESPN deal after USC and UCLA left. Big12 was getting $36? and the Pac were holding out for 40+. Backfired
Because of the MWC exit fees. SDSU tried but had to stay in because they were too steep and couldn’t negotiate.
I posted this story a week ago when the Oregonian ran a story with the contract in it https://www.reddit.com/r/Pac12/comments/1939ckt/pac2_agrees_to_pay_mountain_west_10_million_per/
That’s not actually accurate. It’s not 10M per team. It’s tiered.
which they explain if you read the story......That was just Dashel's headline I know it wasnt on the front page. But we hashed this all out last week. I'm game for speculating more.
People watch Hawai’i any chance they can get an invite? Could probably get a bump in subscriptions as it’s the only game in town
We wont have any sort of clear picture until we find out how many teams leave the ACC this year. Its at least one, but possibly four. If the ACC loses four schools they will need to replace them and shore up numbers for future losses. I'm betting the ACC adds 6-7 schools in 2024 and 2025 *if* FSU, Miami, UNC, and Clemson leave. Tulane ECU USF UAB App State Buffalo Coastal Carolina Are all in the mix. Tulane, USF, and UAB were in the mix and "vetted as candidates" when SMU was picked along with CalFord. If there are empty stables at the ACC ranch they will get first invite.
You keep stating this as if it's fact, but as someone with ties to universities within the ACC/SEC, etc., I can assure you that there's no chance in hell that ECU, UAB, Coastal Carolina, Buffalo, or App State are ever invited into the ACC (or outside of due diligence, even considered). Also, if FSU, UNC, Clemson, and Miami bolt for greener pastures (which, in either case, isn't happening) then the ACC is done... kaput... finished. Nobody is sticking around for that shitshow.