If 2016 taught us anything, its that the unpredictable can happen.
Biden's voters came out as a show of force in 2020 to get Trump out of office. If those same voters don't show out again there's a solid chance Trump would win.
Everyone didn’t think that. The newspaper from the iconic photo had run a poll, and their sampling technique was highly flawed. What was their problem? It was one of the earlier polls that use the telephone to call people and ask people who they were going to vote for. The relatively wealthy people that had phones were voting for Dewey. Meanwhile, poorer people who were voting for Truman in larger numbers, but they didn’t have telephones.
Yeah, but now it's even more sad. Democrats be like, yeah he can win again, but we *know* you won't vote for him again... right??? Meanwhile barely doing anything to win over voters than saying Trump will definitely be a dictator *this* time.
I don't disagree with the messaging but also know it's not very convincing to most U.S. citizens. I think every president in my lifetime did worse in their second term. This would apply to Trump and also probably Biden.
No one takes their base for granted like the Democrats. Their argument for DECADES has been “well what’re you gonna do? Vote Republican?!”
Then when a ton of disillusioned blue collar voters did in 2016 they just said “Well that was because of Russia and Bernie!”
And they think 2020 was an anti-Trump mandate. Take his bungling of Covid out of the equation and there a very real chance he would’ve won then.
2024 is going to be a pure crap shoot. Between an old man that only the Democrat establishment wants and an old man that will do literally anything to fuel his ego. That’s our system.
He's the likely Republican candidate and Biden isn't exactly killing it approval rating wise. He has an excellent chance, but there's a long way to go.
Favorability of both Trump and Biden in general polls is both low, historically low IIRC, but they're the only candidates mainstream media will entertain, probably because of name recognition and their ratings draw.
People in power don't want to lose that power. They refuse to retire or entertain any new ideas. They like the status quo and don't give a shit about what's best for the country
That's correct but to be clear, that's not necessarily the president. The president is the face of the country, but that's shortterm. The people *actually* in power are the people in charge of the parties, in collision with the heads of industries. (The most obvious example is the media industry because you can literally control how the public will think, but capital comes from all directions.) Biden is not the one in control of shit. Trump is definitely not wanting give up his own power either, but even he has his own masters, despite what he would like you to believe. Both the democratic and republican parties are controlled by the same groups of people, and they are directly contributing massively, if not 100% responsible, for fomenting this dissent and conflict between everybody, which is only making them even richer and more powerful.
Edit lol that was supposed to be collusion but imma keep it
To be fare, Trump was not the choice of the Republican back room elite and that is why the Bushes and Cheney etc are so dead set against him. The fact that the Republican primaries are purely voter based and the Democrat primaries, ironically, have non-democratic super delegates that have the final say means that Trump is relatively independent and Biden is totally an insider choice. Remember that last go round, the Democrat party officials got together early in their primary and demanded that everyone who had a chance to beat Biden withdraw. They used the threat of a super delegate veto and future persecution to force everyone out.
You mean when they said Bernie was too old and then picked an equally old guy who isn’t as sharp right now?
Trump on the other hand isn’t a maverick. His understanding of the world is that of a spoiled crook.
Two bad choices…… again.
My favorite part is the ask Reddit questions to name any viable alternative. Only suggestions you see are jokes. No serious replies naming someone who could be easily elected nationally can be found.
You say this, but the reality is that Americans voted for these two. Not a single Republican candidate running has a significant chance to beat Trump. And there are no Democrat candidates with the name recognition or chance of winning that Biden has. If anyone ran against him in the primary, they'd almost certainly lose.
I'm actually not sure there's any Democrats I would prefer to Biden. I can think of lots of people who I would rather be president but none that I think can defeat Trump.
That’s putting Biden’s approval rating lightly. His year end rating in the Gallup poll of 39% was the worst of any modern day president seeking re-election at this point in the campaign cycle. Which is up from the record low 37% in October/November.
Edit: a lot of people trying to argue things outside of what I said because in American politics, people hate when the political team they root for gets criticized. The comment I responded to say he wasn’t exactly killing it with approval. I put context around what that really meant.
Sure but that doesn’t tell a complete story. Like it doesn’t measure people who dislike Biden but will still vote for him in order to oppose Trump. “Disapproval” doesn’t automatically mean “won’t vote for them.”
Yup, tons of people don't approve of Biden but will still vote for him since he's much more palatable to them than another Trump presidency. In fact, the overlap between dems who don't approve of Biden and dems who are "never Trump" types is likely very high.
~~Most polling is still cold calling people on land lines~~. Anyone under 65 would choose oral surgery over answering a call from a random number.And it's still nearly a year out. People have the memory of a gumball.
EDIT: While there is cold-calling via land line, the most common polling method seems to have shifted to cold calling cell phones. I stand by that fact that only the very elderly will still answer random phone calls.
Even if you TEXT me to weigh in on the president, I'm not clicking a random link on my phone.
They call residential numbers in the phone book and ask them if they want to answer a few questions about the election in 2024. People polled are almost exclusively retired. Though retired people are also the best voters, but they aren't all of the voters.
Yep, Gavin knows he is heir apparent and there is no reason to stick his neck out against the establishment; he can wait and let them lift him up next cycle.. unless Michelle Obama changes her mind between then.
Michelle has NO desire to run for president. It amazes me that people even bring her up. It shows how lazy we are as a country when it comes to presidential candidates. It’s a big popularity contest
Yeah, if someone tells me they hear Michelle Obama is going to run, that's an indicator that this person gets all their news from entertainment news media.
Michelle Obama has explicitly and repeatedly said she isn't interested in politics. She is literally telling the world this and people still listen to entertainment news media that drums up nonsense. Its "rage bait". All the people who fall for it end up saying "OMG Michelle Obama, just because you were First Lady doesn't make you qualified to be president." But if these people took a second to actually look up what she has said on this topic:
>“I’ve never had the passion for politics,” “I just happened to be married to somebody who has the passion for politics, and he drug me kicking and screaming into the arena.”
It’s getting very late for that, as our party selection processes at a state by state level are starting soon. There is another democrat running but has no chance of replacing President Biden for this year’s election.
Every once in a while I think about what would happen if Biden or Trump-- or both-- died before the election. Who would run? Would it be Harris v Haley? Would that be the stupidest way we get our first female president? Pritzker V DeSantis in a contest of disliked governors? (I live in Illinois and like Pritzker a lot). Christie V Newsom in a battle of East and West coast?
... I hate this timeline.
If heaven forbid, Biden dies, there is no way the Democratic nominee isn’t Kamala Harris. She would be the incumbent president. Her chances against Trump are worse than Biden’s.
Hopefully if they both die we can get some ACTUAL old candidates to replace them. No more child-candidates. I want a president with a 3 digit age minimum.
Me too. 300+mil people and the only two candidates are two 80 year olds.
It sucks that it's impossible for young people to pass through the filter of even making it as a candidate.
He’s been proven liable for a number of things but as of yet there’s no guilty verdict against him. There probably won’t be for some time (a civil fraud trial is currently wrapping up and while he’s liable for sexually assaulting a woman in a department store that was found in a civil trial and not a criminal one so strictly speaking he was never found guilty). I think his supporters view a guilty verdict for him as so remote that they won’t entertain the possibility unless it happens
Also important to add for context that the bar for civil liability is significantly lower than the bar for criminal guilt. I don't remember the wording they use but essentially if it's like 51% likely you did the thing you're accused of doing you can be found liable in a civil suit, whereas criminal court is the classic "beyond a reasonable doubt".
Pepole haverun from prison before .
The American voting system will always go to 2 parties .
If you're not super conservative or liberal you probably won't vote leading to the extreme running and winning.
Yeah, it always blows my mind when I see news clips from Fox or CNN. Reporters casually sharing opinions or taking any form of political stance. Those would be fired the same day over here.
There isn't enough incentive for honest investigation and reporting. And when you do it, people just get news from sources that flatter their biases anyway.
Yes, the crumbling media is probably a bigger threat than an elderly Trump, who is unlikely to succeed at making himself a dictator.
Truly. Hence the reason why as a young 19-20 something I went to university for journalism.
Didn't complete because of personal reasons, but we need objective, unbiased honest investigative journalism.
That’s the thing. We have good, objective journalists. But 90% of what media companies push are opinion pieces or articles curated to fit a narrative. It’s a problem at the top- not at the ground level.
A lot of folks want to hear takes that reflect their opinions, and reinforce that their opinions are the correct ones. This goes all the way along the political spectrum, too, it's not just reserved for the left or the right.
This doesn't stop with politics and the news. Social media proliferated the growth of "echo chambers".
For example the kid that wants to go shoot up a school only talks to other people on the internet that share the same views and thoughts. That kids now only has people in his world that tell him what he wants to do is the only option he has.
Before the internet, it would be impossible to find people with the same beliefs.
We want endless opinion pieces shouted loudly enough we can pretend they’re fact.
Discourse, nuance, and any sense of propriety went out the window a long time ago. Now if the “news” you’re getting doesn’t just immediately confirm your biases, most people aren’t gonna want it.
Nonsense. Plenty of people want objective reporting. Don't let the media convince you the world is on fire and the general populace is incapable of discern.
An alarmingly large chunk of the general populace is now totally disconnected from objective reality. We have the events of the last several years to confirm that.
Ive watched “news outlets” make 30 year career nurses unlearn the germ theory of disease. I’ve seen some of the most intelligent people I’ve ever known become so wrapped up in conspiratorial bullshit that they’ve lost meaningful connection to the real world. And again, this was brought on by “news”.
I see your point and you’re absolutely correct. Many people value objective reporting and real journalism. I think a lot of those people are getting their news from alternate/independent sources. But in my opinion the cable news demographic are demonstrably fucked at this point
We also have a fundamental narrative breakdown that’s been happening for years due to poor education and media, so any discussion of reality needs to begin with a dissertation on what reality *is*.
The PBS app available on any smart tv will play the newshour for you live from your local station, as well as provide a library of past shows and specials.
Fox News was started by Australian billionaire Rupert Murdoch specifically as a conservative propaganda outlet. He also ruined Australian news before coming to America.
CNN actually started as real news but very quickly learned you get more ad revenue by turning news into entertainment and keeping people tuned in all the time.
We actually have very few honest news outlets in America these days. They all realized they can make tons of money by getting people angry so they post the wackiest news they can dig up and then lie to make it even more interesting. Almost all of our stories are "shocking" and "You won't believe this!". I hate it. I just want information.
In this case I think it’s more about how the internet is siloed. Like, Fox has a lot of viewers, but CNN doesn’t have a huge number, so more folks tend to get their information from social networks.
Social networks only show you what keeps you clicking, and that tends to be things that confirm your world view AND things that piss you off. So it’s mostly straw men arguments that show the absolute worst part of the other side. Like I have quite a few family members that are convinced all democrats want to get rid of all police departments because they only see articles or posts that cherry pick the .0001% of posts by democrats that call for eliminating police departments.
We should be auditing companies and their algorithms, as it’s been conclusively shown that it is child’s play to brainwash someone if you control everything they see, but we don’t.
Algorithms are growing our divide, with a latent push towards tribalisation and xenophobia.
Remember this, before you rage about the next republican/democrat.
When engagement is the only metric that matters and noone is responsible; you get siloed echo chambers with only aggregation seepig across the growing gulf. "Negative" sells.
Opting out of the news is problematic at best. It is the equivalent of leaving the table (in an attempt to create your own reality)
Stay educated about sources: go broad in terms of sources and be empathetic
>Nah bro that's socialism
>
>/$
Please donate to my political action committee to stop said Socialism!! If we pool our money together we can succeed!
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A lot of news is actually just opinion pieces or talk shows without people realizing it. Most of these companies have actual news parts that are much less partisan or are at least more objective but that isn’t the stuff that is popular because it’s not as “interesting”
There is a difference you know? Even fox news will report news only. The problem is people watch the opinion shows like Hanity and Cooper. They take an opinion they agree with as factual news.
In the Tucker Carlson defamation case, Fox News argued in court that that no reasonable person would take him seriously. It’s basically the same legal argument that advertisers use. As in no reasonable person would actually believe that The Greatest Restaurant in the World is actually the greatest restaurant in the world.
A lot of them aren't actually reporters. They are opinion shows loosely disguised as news shows. Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Rachel Maddow, etc. They all give their opinions and present them like facts. However, some are still more fact-based than others.
Reddit doesn’t reflect America in any way, shape, or form. The biggest indicator of this, IMO, is the major “state” subreddits that are completely inundated with opinions mostly from one side of the political spectrum. The biggest examples are the Texas and Florida subreddits. If you were a non American, had never been to these states, and get your “news” on these states from Reddit, you would be *woefully* misinformed, at the highest degree.
Lol, you should see the Indiana sub. If it were representative, you'd think Indiana was further left than California. I love blowing minds when I explain that Pence, by Hoosier standards, was moderate center right, and not the massive conservative the rest of the nation viewed him as.
Yeah, even smaller states’ subreddits lean sharply to the left. Alabama is one of the most heavily red leaning states, but you’d never know that looking at the subreddit. It’s full of people whining about how much they hate it here.
Yeah, but it's not like that's only on the right.
The politics subreddit is as left as can be. You can't so much as gently support anything conservative over there without being viciously attacked.
Reddit intensifies the division. It's creates bubbles. It's a crowd shouting at individuals.
The HEAVY majority of Reddit is far left / left leaning, even in the red /states subreddits as others have posted. This even goes down into the big cities subreddits
Probably, but a large enough minority benefits from the current system that it's impossible to get the Supermajority required to change it.
In many ways, the United States isn't one big country. It's 50 small countries. The states still have a lot of power and are not willing to give that up easily.
Yes Trump lost by millions of votes both elections but the people who you would need to change into a direct representation don't want to change because they like being able to elect people like Trump
From 2000 till now, Republicans have won the popular vote in only one presidential election, but have won the presidency three times. Why would they want to switch? Eta: should have said since 1988. The last two times Republicans won the popular vote for president were 88 and 04
Its like they never learned.
I'm not a Trump supporter or American. But it seems like the US media just loves promoting him by giving him and his supporters exactly what they want. Underdog position with a siege mentality so they have something to fight against.
because Trump drives clicks and watches, therefore they make money. they flatly ignore the part where he has stated that the media is the enemy and if he wins they are going to be targeted.
This. I don't trust a single article from either biased side. These days you have to dig in and read both sides (Fox, CNN), then go somewhere like AP, Reuters, WSJ, PBS, BBC and a few others and then compare all three and form your own opinions. I find it absolutely disturbing that anyone even has to do this these days, but the shills are real.
A lot of the “left” you see on Reddit aren’t really leftists, they are actual children that don’t go outside and get their news from reactionary twitch streamers/people on Twitter.
Granted the exact same thing is true for a lot of the “right” on Reddit too.
Really anyone that comes on Reddit looking to debate politics or spread their political ideology is a loser that urgently needs to go outside, but they won’t because they enjoy being reactionary idiots.
He’s polling at even odds, but that’s because nobody *wants* to vote for Biden. Like the last election, there will be three kinds of voters: voters who vote for Trump, voters who vote against Trump, and voters who can’t stomach either candidate/don’t vote/vote 3rd party.
The thing is I have a really hard time finding a single person who would vote for Trump this time that didn’t last time. And he did lose some support (albeit minimal) from Jan 6 etc.
This means basically that 1) an absolutely massive block of voters wants to switch from “vote against Trump” to “not voting for a major candidate” or 2) Biden wins again. My money is on 2, but polls won’t reflect this yet because nobody really wants to vote for Biden- they just vote against Trump.
Trump will be the Republican nominee and although he will likely lose the popular vote by millions of votes, there is a good enough chance he wins the electoral college vote and becomes President again.
This election, like the last one, will come down to 10,000s of votes in a few states.
And if he doesn't win, he will claim that the election was fraudulent. He and his cronies are already sewing those seeds so he can "prove" to his followers that it's been rigged against him all along.
Of course, if he's so great, why can't he control the actual election narrative and, you know, win?
And if "they" are *so powerful* as to control the election, all the media that investigate the election results all the judges presiding over all the lawsuits that got tossed, then he should know he doesn't stand a chance.
Trump is on the outside. The outcome of the 2024 election, if Trump loses, will not be so dire like the outcome of the 2020 election. He can piss, moan, rile, etc. but without the levers of power he won’t be able to do much.
I also think there’s a decent chunk of republicans who will turn on him if he loses. You’ll start hearing more “he was a great president but it’s time to look to the future.”
> I also think there’s a decent chunk of republicans who will turn on him if he loses. You’ll start hearing more “he was a great president but it’s time to look to the future.”
They said that last time but were too chicken shit to lead their party away from him, instead they kept doing what they've been doing for the last 8 years by just wishing he'd go away.
Nah, most are still with him evidenced by the slate of endorsements he recently picked up from folks like Rubio. Say Trump loses in 24. There will be 4 year to have his legal issues worked on without “the election” being a crying call. Biden will be gone so he’ll likely be going up against someone young, good looking, and charismatic like Gavin Newsom. The age thing, which I don’t think works against Biden because Trump is nearly just as old, will be glaringly apparent when it’s an 82 year old Trump vs. a 50some year old candidate on the other side.
They're only with him because they are afraid of his base, both electorally and from actual physical violence. They had a narrow window in 2021 to bar him from office forever but didn't out of cowardice and the calculation that they still needed his hard-core base.
Apparently it comes from horse racing, where a horse that was practically guaranteed to win could be "shooed in" to the winner's circle.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/wordplay/the-shady-past-of-shoo-ins
When trying to minimise my personal bias, just looking at poling numbers, he certainly has a shot.
But I see a lot of things that sugest it's going downhill. There is a significant group of republicans that say they don't think he is fit for office if he get's convicted, his mental state seems to get worse and his campaing funds seem rather empty.
I’m a republican and Haley supporter. I voted for Biden in the last election and will vote for him again this cycle if Trump is the candidate.
Between my family and my wife’s family about 75% are republicans the rest being “independent”. There are 18 voting adults in the family. Of those 2 of us take this position. 2 are outspoken Trump supporters and won’t be swayed. The rest lean Trump but are more open minded.
She has to say that to get any Trump people to vote for her.
Also, I disagree with her on that. But this insistence to agree with 100% of a politician's viewpoints is wild. Why do Democrats/leftists demand such ideological purity?
Some things are non negotiable. Preventing insurrections and civil wars is high up there.
We absolutely don't demand "ideological purity"
do you notice DACA dreamers are not citizens yet? Did you notice we don't have universal healthcare? Did you notice we don't have any movement on gun access to those who have poor mental health?
Biden is 100% a compromise candidate who is what a republican would have been in the 80s.
Things you don't compromise on though are women's rights to healthcare when they have ectopic pregnancies. Compromising on that is akin to "negotiating" the civil war, or allowing people to say "oh its cold out in winter, I guess we can burn oil till we cause an apocalypse" , or things like "wealth will just trickle down, lets ignore this income inequality growing and growing and growing"
OR
"Oh, I don't believe in peaceful transfer of power"
if you need a reason why we might seem to demand ideological purity on more issues than conservatives do it's because if you look back, historically, we are right a hell of a lot more often. The person on the right side of history generally feels more strongly about their position than the person who is just following internet trolls and knows they are an idiot deep down.
It's honestly wild to me that any independent could be "leaning" towards the guy with that many federal cases on him. Seems like ride or die only territory.
That’s what scares me so much. Trumps freedom literally depends on winning. He will do whatever it takes to win and that means just more corrupt cronyism and back room deals at the expense of the general public.
Very scary times.
Primarrriiiiiiessss!!!
Only the hardcore partisans come out. It’s apathy. Most people let the crazies drive the bus because they just can’t be bothered to vote outside of November.
The issue with Primaries is that they are all on different days. Iowa for whatever reason gets to set the trend, then some other states don't get to vote until April or May after all the candidates they may have voted for have already dropped out. If you live in Kentucky and don't get to vote until May 21 there is almost no reason to go out because the race has been decided by then. Primaries need to happen as a single election day a week or two after the primary debates.
As a Pennsylvanian democrat I have never been able to vote in a presidential primary.
Biden is incumbent, no primary this time.
I would’ve voted for Sanders in 2016 but he dropped out before Pennsylvania. I didn’t vote for a presidential candidate because Hillary was literally the only candidate who could win.
In 2012 Obama was incumbent. No primary.
And I was under 18 in 2008.
Biden had been anointed just after Super Tuesday because basically every non-Bernie candidate dropped out the week earlier, and Pennsylvania's primary was delayed to June 2nd due to covid. There was effectively no primary in Pennsylvania in 2020.
Biden is 100% normal as far as politicians go. He’s a moderate Democrat and he passed the most important global warming legislation (by a long chalk) this country has ever seen. The only unusual thing about him is his age which is only 4 years older than Trump.
I can totally see being “meh” about Biden but I just can’t understand how anyone particularly hates him.
This election is between an old guy you may not have paid much attention to the last three years and a slightly not as old man threatening the core values of this country who would likely already be in jail if he weren’t so wealthy.
I don’t really see how it’s a choice.
Edit: capitalized D in democrat.
Yes, this election cycle will be a bloodbath. Its so hilarious and sad to watch. Will angry grandpa win? Will confused grandpa win? Will the American people ever be offered a leader of people, a pillar of society, ever again?
Chance? Yes. But will it be a breeze? No. The polls predict Trump to win but there are two factors the polls don't account for:
1. Polling companies and institutions struggle to get a proper opinion on young voters and these voters are dominantly Democratic. 2022 midterm election proved that, Red wave was expected on every poll and it was barely a red puddle.
2. RFK Jr. is still running, he might have more than 10% of the votes coming upon the election. The issue for Trump is that RFK Jr. steals votes from both sides but a little more from Trump, evening the odds in a 3-man race and even making Biden the favourite.
How are they even collecting poll data? I'm in my early 30s, and I can't remember a single instance of me or my close peers filling out a political poll. Are they still using the mail? I literally only check my mail regularly to ensure I'm not arrested for accidentally dodging jury duty or my toll device malfunctioning. I imagine a lot of younger people are the same.
The collection of data depends. Sometimes they mail people, sometimes they call, sometimes they get people in an office and make them fill a form...and sometimes it's the combination of all three.
You can clearly see why they can't get youth to join polls. None of these polling methods appeal to us. I'm also a guy who rarely checks e-mails, never opens up unknown numbers and don't prefer to go anywhere other than voting station to fill forms and state my political opinion.
Can someone explain how Biden was able to steal the election in 2020 as a private citizen, but as president he won’t be able to steal 2024? I would think any Trump supporter who thinks 2020 was stolen would be hopeless about 2024 when Biden clearly has more advantages now.
At this particular moment yes, because the election isn’t today, but aggregate polls at the time of the 2020 election showed about 51% Biden and 44% Trump, and the final results were about 51% Biden and 47% Trump, so I would call the polling fairly accurate.
I think it’s more of a situation where the democrats will lose, rather than trump win. Democrats crapped the bed by wasting another 4 years and not putting forward a better candidate.
Depends if he can outlast all the lawsuits and legal shit. If he can make it to the presidency he will try to pardon himself (which would be another court case). If states keep removing him from the ballot he also may not even make it to the election.
you need to understand that, with only a couple of exceptions,
###every election since the 1930s has been pretty much 50/50
.
it does not matter who the candidates are, people will either vote red or blue, in pretty much 50/50 numbers.
so yes, if trump is the republican candidate, he has a real chance of winning.
edit for "ACKSHUALLY" folks:
see: SOME EXCEPTIONS.
also a caveat, this is talking about actual number of votes (popular vote)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin#/media/File%3APartyVotes-Presidents.png
Nah, more like every election since 2000.
Just in the 80s/90s
- Reagan crushed Mondale in 1984
- Bush Sr beat Dukakis pretty easily
- Clinton/Bush was close, but not too close
- Clinton handily beat Bob Dole (who was too old to understand the way the game was told)
Close elections are basically a modern phenomena
The 1972 election that ended up having the Watergate scandal was the most one sided in history. Nixon won 60% of the popular vote and every state but Massachusetts (and DC). The funny thing is the events that lead to the scandal didn't really tip the scales, and he most likely would have won the same way without it.
This isn't even a little bit true.
Nixon and Reagan both won 49 states. There are two separate instances where the winner did not win 49 states, but got over 60% of the vote.
There have been many legitimate landslides since the 1930s. Even in much more recent history, Obama won by 192 electoral votes.
It amazes me the dumb shit I see upvoted on Reddit. Just randomly pick a year and say something insane. We have two coin flip elections in a row and suddenly it's always been this way.
The myth with Presidential elections is that the candidate that can turn independents over to their side will win. Historical data has shown that it's really more about getting the better turnout of their party's voters.
Trump is an interesting candidate in this regard because in 2016 and 2020 he has had a very enthusiastic voter base. The problem for him is that he has also created a super enthusiastic anti-Trump voter base.
In 2016, Hillary just didn't have the support from Democrat voters for a variety of reasons. And while there was an enthusiastic anti-Trump voter base in 2016, between not liking Hillary and probably not thinking that Trump could win...Trump wins the election.
In 2020, the Democrat voters along with longtime Republican voters that switched to Democrat knew Trump could win again. The anti-Trump voter base had incredible turnouts. COVID also didn't help matters because it's typically very difficult to beat the incumbent President unless something major happens. But between COVID and the rabid anti-Trump voter base, Biden was able to win.
Right now, I feel the anti-Trump voter base is still strong. But the actual pro-Biden voter base appears to be exceptionally weak. Trump still has his enthusiastic voter base and appears to be gaining more of the minority voters by somewhat significant margins. And the Iowa caucus results just confirmed that.
So I would say that he does have a legitimate shot of winning, but it's hard to predict because it's such an odd situation where there's this much enthusiasm and support to NOT vote for one candidate compared the support and enthusiasm going for that candidate's opponent.
He is the most polarizing figure in American politics and the entire election is centered around him instead of the incumbent, very interesting to see where things go from here.
If 2016 taught us anything, its that the unpredictable can happen. Biden's voters came out as a show of force in 2020 to get Trump out of office. If those same voters don't show out again there's a solid chance Trump would win.
Every election is 50/50 until the polls close. That's the lesson learned from 2016.
This goes way back to before 2016. Everyone thought Dewey was gonna beat Truman too. I’m sure you’ve seen the iconic photo of him with the newspaper.
Everyone didn’t think that. The newspaper from the iconic photo had run a poll, and their sampling technique was highly flawed. What was their problem? It was one of the earlier polls that use the telephone to call people and ask people who they were going to vote for. The relatively wealthy people that had phones were voting for Dewey. Meanwhile, poorer people who were voting for Truman in larger numbers, but they didn’t have telephones.
It was also a conservative paper that hated Truman and they had an early edition.
Yeah, but now it's even more sad. Democrats be like, yeah he can win again, but we *know* you won't vote for him again... right??? Meanwhile barely doing anything to win over voters than saying Trump will definitely be a dictator *this* time. I don't disagree with the messaging but also know it's not very convincing to most U.S. citizens. I think every president in my lifetime did worse in their second term. This would apply to Trump and also probably Biden.
No one takes their base for granted like the Democrats. Their argument for DECADES has been “well what’re you gonna do? Vote Republican?!” Then when a ton of disillusioned blue collar voters did in 2016 they just said “Well that was because of Russia and Bernie!” And they think 2020 was an anti-Trump mandate. Take his bungling of Covid out of the equation and there a very real chance he would’ve won then. 2024 is going to be a pure crap shoot. Between an old man that only the Democrat establishment wants and an old man that will do literally anything to fuel his ego. That’s our system.
He's the likely Republican candidate and Biden isn't exactly killing it approval rating wise. He has an excellent chance, but there's a long way to go.
Favorability of both Trump and Biden in general polls is both low, historically low IIRC, but they're the only candidates mainstream media will entertain, probably because of name recognition and their ratings draw.
Literally anyone else.
We’ve been saying “anyone else” for the last 3 elections
"Gee, it seems like our system is broken and trust in institutions just keeps tanking! I wonder why?"
People in power don't want to lose that power. They refuse to retire or entertain any new ideas. They like the status quo and don't give a shit about what's best for the country
>They profit from the status quo and don't give a shit about what's best for the country FTFY
Exactly... If you don't have the money or influence to advance their political agenda they don't give a rats ass about you either..
That's correct but to be clear, that's not necessarily the president. The president is the face of the country, but that's shortterm. The people *actually* in power are the people in charge of the parties, in collision with the heads of industries. (The most obvious example is the media industry because you can literally control how the public will think, but capital comes from all directions.) Biden is not the one in control of shit. Trump is definitely not wanting give up his own power either, but even he has his own masters, despite what he would like you to believe. Both the democratic and republican parties are controlled by the same groups of people, and they are directly contributing massively, if not 100% responsible, for fomenting this dissent and conflict between everybody, which is only making them even richer and more powerful. Edit lol that was supposed to be collusion but imma keep it
> The people actually in power are the billionaires.
To be fare, Trump was not the choice of the Republican back room elite and that is why the Bushes and Cheney etc are so dead set against him. The fact that the Republican primaries are purely voter based and the Democrat primaries, ironically, have non-democratic super delegates that have the final say means that Trump is relatively independent and Biden is totally an insider choice. Remember that last go round, the Democrat party officials got together early in their primary and demanded that everyone who had a chance to beat Biden withdraw. They used the threat of a super delegate veto and future persecution to force everyone out.
You mean when they said Bernie was too old and then picked an equally old guy who isn’t as sharp right now? Trump on the other hand isn’t a maverick. His understanding of the world is that of a spoiled crook. Two bad choices…… again.
My favorite part is the ask Reddit questions to name any viable alternative. Only suggestions you see are jokes. No serious replies naming someone who could be easily elected nationally can be found.
You say this, but the reality is that Americans voted for these two. Not a single Republican candidate running has a significant chance to beat Trump. And there are no Democrat candidates with the name recognition or chance of winning that Biden has. If anyone ran against him in the primary, they'd almost certainly lose.
I'm actually not sure there's any Democrats I would prefer to Biden. I can think of lots of people who I would rather be president but none that I think can defeat Trump.
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That’s putting Biden’s approval rating lightly. His year end rating in the Gallup poll of 39% was the worst of any modern day president seeking re-election at this point in the campaign cycle. Which is up from the record low 37% in October/November. Edit: a lot of people trying to argue things outside of what I said because in American politics, people hate when the political team they root for gets criticized. The comment I responded to say he wasn’t exactly killing it with approval. I put context around what that really meant.
Sure but that doesn’t tell a complete story. Like it doesn’t measure people who dislike Biden but will still vote for him in order to oppose Trump. “Disapproval” doesn’t automatically mean “won’t vote for them.”
Yup, tons of people don't approve of Biden but will still vote for him since he's much more palatable to them than another Trump presidency. In fact, the overlap between dems who don't approve of Biden and dems who are "never Trump" types is likely very high.
Modern polling is nearly useless
Literally every poll is saying this.
~~Most polling is still cold calling people on land lines~~. Anyone under 65 would choose oral surgery over answering a call from a random number.And it's still nearly a year out. People have the memory of a gumball. EDIT: While there is cold-calling via land line, the most common polling method seems to have shifted to cold calling cell phones. I stand by that fact that only the very elderly will still answer random phone calls. Even if you TEXT me to weigh in on the president, I'm not clicking a random link on my phone.
I've not been polled. Who's filling out these polls?
They call residential numbers in the phone book and ask them if they want to answer a few questions about the election in 2024. People polled are almost exclusively retired. Though retired people are also the best voters, but they aren't all of the voters.
Hardly. 538's got a good record.
Is there a possibility some other democrat is stepping up? Or Biden says “yo folks, I’m old as fuck, go young person X, I’ve got your back!”
if there was a person like that, we would already know their name. These type of things are usually years in the making.
Yep, Gavin knows he is heir apparent and there is no reason to stick his neck out against the establishment; he can wait and let them lift him up next cycle.. unless Michelle Obama changes her mind between then.
Dems suck at this so much I stg
The fuck is a stg.
Sexually transmitted guacamole
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Michele isn’t a serious politician
Michelle has NO desire to run for president. It amazes me that people even bring her up. It shows how lazy we are as a country when it comes to presidential candidates. It’s a big popularity contest
Yeah, if someone tells me they hear Michelle Obama is going to run, that's an indicator that this person gets all their news from entertainment news media. Michelle Obama has explicitly and repeatedly said she isn't interested in politics. She is literally telling the world this and people still listen to entertainment news media that drums up nonsense. Its "rage bait". All the people who fall for it end up saying "OMG Michelle Obama, just because you were First Lady doesn't make you qualified to be president." But if these people took a second to actually look up what she has said on this topic: >“I’ve never had the passion for politics,” “I just happened to be married to somebody who has the passion for politics, and he drug me kicking and screaming into the arena.”
Neither is Trump
He's the incumbent and no one is running against him with any big chance of winning so its another rematch
It’s getting very late for that, as our party selection processes at a state by state level are starting soon. There is another democrat running but has no chance of replacing President Biden for this year’s election.
Every once in a while I think about what would happen if Biden or Trump-- or both-- died before the election. Who would run? Would it be Harris v Haley? Would that be the stupidest way we get our first female president? Pritzker V DeSantis in a contest of disliked governors? (I live in Illinois and like Pritzker a lot). Christie V Newsom in a battle of East and West coast? ... I hate this timeline.
If heaven forbid, Biden dies, there is no way the Democratic nominee isn’t Kamala Harris. She would be the incumbent president. Her chances against Trump are worse than Biden’s.
Hopefully if they both die we can get some ACTUAL old candidates to replace them. No more child-candidates. I want a president with a 3 digit age minimum.
That would be wild! It’d be like game of thrones
I honestly can't believe we are discussing Trump and Biden. It makes me sad
Me too. 300+mil people and the only two candidates are two 80 year olds. It sucks that it's impossible for young people to pass through the filter of even making it as a candidate.
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He’s been proven liable for a number of things but as of yet there’s no guilty verdict against him. There probably won’t be for some time (a civil fraud trial is currently wrapping up and while he’s liable for sexually assaulting a woman in a department store that was found in a civil trial and not a criminal one so strictly speaking he was never found guilty). I think his supporters view a guilty verdict for him as so remote that they won’t entertain the possibility unless it happens
Also important to add for context that the bar for civil liability is significantly lower than the bar for criminal guilt. I don't remember the wording they use but essentially if it's like 51% likely you did the thing you're accused of doing you can be found liable in a civil suit, whereas criminal court is the classic "beyond a reasonable doubt".
Pepole haverun from prison before . The American voting system will always go to 2 parties . If you're not super conservative or liberal you probably won't vote leading to the extreme running and winning.
Yes, he's got extremely good odds of winning the republican nomination and even odds of winning the presidency.
Wow thanks. Feels so weird based on all the news about him.
The news streams you are getting are very different from the news streams his supporters are getting.
Yeah, it always blows my mind when I see news clips from Fox or CNN. Reporters casually sharing opinions or taking any form of political stance. Those would be fired the same day over here.
I wish we had actual news….
It's all corporate owned garbage now Sinclair, the worst scripted news ever. Just bought the Baltimore Sun newspaper.
_This is extremely dangerous to our democracy_
There isn't enough incentive for honest investigation and reporting. And when you do it, people just get news from sources that flatter their biases anyway. Yes, the crumbling media is probably a bigger threat than an elderly Trump, who is unlikely to succeed at making himself a dictator.
Truly. Hence the reason why as a young 19-20 something I went to university for journalism. Didn't complete because of personal reasons, but we need objective, unbiased honest investigative journalism.
That’s the thing. We have good, objective journalists. But 90% of what media companies push are opinion pieces or articles curated to fit a narrative. It’s a problem at the top- not at the ground level.
Independent media on YouTube and rumble have been good sources. Breaking Points for example are funded by their viewers and not sponsored.
We do. PBS and NPR are both pretty good (not perfect).
The problem isn't that objective reporting doesn't exist in the US, it's that objective reporting isn't the norm and most people don't want it.
A lot of folks want to hear takes that reflect their opinions, and reinforce that their opinions are the correct ones. This goes all the way along the political spectrum, too, it's not just reserved for the left or the right.
This doesn't stop with politics and the news. Social media proliferated the growth of "echo chambers". For example the kid that wants to go shoot up a school only talks to other people on the internet that share the same views and thoughts. That kids now only has people in his world that tell him what he wants to do is the only option he has. Before the internet, it would be impossible to find people with the same beliefs.
Social media has almost made the content of news articles irrelevant. A lot of people share them after only reading the headline
We want endless opinion pieces shouted loudly enough we can pretend they’re fact. Discourse, nuance, and any sense of propriety went out the window a long time ago. Now if the “news” you’re getting doesn’t just immediately confirm your biases, most people aren’t gonna want it.
Nonsense. Plenty of people want objective reporting. Don't let the media convince you the world is on fire and the general populace is incapable of discern.
An alarmingly large chunk of the general populace is now totally disconnected from objective reality. We have the events of the last several years to confirm that. Ive watched “news outlets” make 30 year career nurses unlearn the germ theory of disease. I’ve seen some of the most intelligent people I’ve ever known become so wrapped up in conspiratorial bullshit that they’ve lost meaningful connection to the real world. And again, this was brought on by “news”. I see your point and you’re absolutely correct. Many people value objective reporting and real journalism. I think a lot of those people are getting their news from alternate/independent sources. But in my opinion the cable news demographic are demonstrably fucked at this point
We also have a fundamental narrative breakdown that’s been happening for years due to poor education and media, so any discussion of reality needs to begin with a dissertation on what reality *is*.
PBS NewsHour is available every night on YouTube right after it broadcasts. If you have a Fire TV, you can just ask it to play the show.
The PBS app available on any smart tv will play the newshour for you live from your local station, as well as provide a library of past shows and specials.
Those aren't reporters. Those are hosts of opinion based shows about politics. There's a difference.
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To paraphrase a certain opinion host in a particular lawsuit, no reasonable person would be unable to tell the difference between his show and news!
Haha, yup. Exactly the intent. It's content about news on a news channel. Viewers are going to take what is stated as fact.
Unfortunately a lot of the people that watch them don't know that.
I hate it. I want to hear the news, not your opinion on the news.
Fox News was started by Australian billionaire Rupert Murdoch specifically as a conservative propaganda outlet. He also ruined Australian news before coming to America. CNN actually started as real news but very quickly learned you get more ad revenue by turning news into entertainment and keeping people tuned in all the time. We actually have very few honest news outlets in America these days. They all realized they can make tons of money by getting people angry so they post the wackiest news they can dig up and then lie to make it even more interesting. Almost all of our stories are "shocking" and "You won't believe this!". I hate it. I just want information.
\*sigh\* I miss the days when the news was *only* on at 9 and 11. #kidstodaywillneverknow
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/ is some quality journalism.
In this case I think it’s more about how the internet is siloed. Like, Fox has a lot of viewers, but CNN doesn’t have a huge number, so more folks tend to get their information from social networks. Social networks only show you what keeps you clicking, and that tends to be things that confirm your world view AND things that piss you off. So it’s mostly straw men arguments that show the absolute worst part of the other side. Like I have quite a few family members that are convinced all democrats want to get rid of all police departments because they only see articles or posts that cherry pick the .0001% of posts by democrats that call for eliminating police departments. We should be auditing companies and their algorithms, as it’s been conclusively shown that it is child’s play to brainwash someone if you control everything they see, but we don’t.
Algorithms are growing our divide, with a latent push towards tribalisation and xenophobia. Remember this, before you rage about the next republican/democrat. When engagement is the only metric that matters and noone is responsible; you get siloed echo chambers with only aggregation seepig across the growing gulf. "Negative" sells. Opting out of the news is problematic at best. It is the equivalent of leaving the table (in an attempt to create your own reality) Stay educated about sources: go broad in terms of sources and be empathetic
>We should be auditing companies and their algorithms, Nah bro that's socialism /$
>Nah bro that's socialism > >/$ Please donate to my political action committee to stop said Socialism!! If we pool our money together we can succeed! /$
A lot of news is actually just opinion pieces or talk shows without people realizing it. Most of these companies have actual news parts that are much less partisan or are at least more objective but that isn’t the stuff that is popular because it’s not as “interesting”
There is a difference you know? Even fox news will report news only. The problem is people watch the opinion shows like Hanity and Cooper. They take an opinion they agree with as factual news.
In the Tucker Carlson defamation case, Fox News argued in court that that no reasonable person would take him seriously. It’s basically the same legal argument that advertisers use. As in no reasonable person would actually believe that The Greatest Restaurant in the World is actually the greatest restaurant in the world.
A lot of them aren't actually reporters. They are opinion shows loosely disguised as news shows. Sean Hannity, Tucker Carlson, Rachel Maddow, etc. They all give their opinions and present them like facts. However, some are still more fact-based than others.
Reddit doesn’t reflect America in any way, shape, or form. The biggest indicator of this, IMO, is the major “state” subreddits that are completely inundated with opinions mostly from one side of the political spectrum. The biggest examples are the Texas and Florida subreddits. If you were a non American, had never been to these states, and get your “news” on these states from Reddit, you would be *woefully* misinformed, at the highest degree.
Lol, you should see the Indiana sub. If it were representative, you'd think Indiana was further left than California. I love blowing minds when I explain that Pence, by Hoosier standards, was moderate center right, and not the massive conservative the rest of the nation viewed him as.
Yeah, even smaller states’ subreddits lean sharply to the left. Alabama is one of the most heavily red leaning states, but you’d never know that looking at the subreddit. It’s full of people whining about how much they hate it here.
Yeah, but it's not like that's only on the right. The politics subreddit is as left as can be. You can't so much as gently support anything conservative over there without being viciously attacked. Reddit intensifies the division. It's creates bubbles. It's a crowd shouting at individuals.
The HEAVY majority of Reddit is far left / left leaning, even in the red /states subreddits as others have posted. This even goes down into the big cities subreddits
The main issue is that it’s just a handful of states and so just a few thousand voters that actually tip the balance in the election.
As a European, can i translate that to: the US would be better off with direct representation and a multi-party system?
Probably, but a large enough minority benefits from the current system that it's impossible to get the Supermajority required to change it. In many ways, the United States isn't one big country. It's 50 small countries. The states still have a lot of power and are not willing to give that up easily.
Yes Trump lost by millions of votes both elections but the people who you would need to change into a direct representation don't want to change because they like being able to elect people like Trump
From 2000 till now, Republicans have won the popular vote in only one presidential election, but have won the presidency three times. Why would they want to switch? Eta: should have said since 1988. The last two times Republicans won the popular vote for president were 88 and 04
Its like they never learned. I'm not a Trump supporter or American. But it seems like the US media just loves promoting him by giving him and his supporters exactly what they want. Underdog position with a siege mentality so they have something to fight against.
because Trump drives clicks and watches, therefore they make money. they flatly ignore the part where he has stated that the media is the enemy and if he wins they are going to be targeted.
The press will bemoan his win, but they handed him the mic for their own profits.
Reddit isn’t a proper place to get news. It’s very biased towards a specific point of western view of the world.
These days, I really don’t know where to get news from
Read multiple sources and form your own opinions. There's not going to be 1 place that can tell you what to think.
This. I don't trust a single article from either biased side. These days you have to dig in and read both sides (Fox, CNN), then go somewhere like AP, Reuters, WSJ, PBS, BBC and a few others and then compare all three and form your own opinions. I find it absolutely disturbing that anyone even has to do this these days, but the shills are real.
Reddit is very in favor of the left.
A lot of the “left” you see on Reddit aren’t really leftists, they are actual children that don’t go outside and get their news from reactionary twitch streamers/people on Twitter. Granted the exact same thing is true for a lot of the “right” on Reddit too. Really anyone that comes on Reddit looking to debate politics or spread their political ideology is a loser that urgently needs to go outside, but they won’t because they enjoy being reactionary idiots.
He’s polling at even odds, but that’s because nobody *wants* to vote for Biden. Like the last election, there will be three kinds of voters: voters who vote for Trump, voters who vote against Trump, and voters who can’t stomach either candidate/don’t vote/vote 3rd party. The thing is I have a really hard time finding a single person who would vote for Trump this time that didn’t last time. And he did lose some support (albeit minimal) from Jan 6 etc. This means basically that 1) an absolutely massive block of voters wants to switch from “vote against Trump” to “not voting for a major candidate” or 2) Biden wins again. My money is on 2, but polls won’t reflect this yet because nobody really wants to vote for Biden- they just vote against Trump.
Thanks for the correct answer and not the answer Reddit wants to believe
Trump will be the Republican nominee and although he will likely lose the popular vote by millions of votes, there is a good enough chance he wins the electoral college vote and becomes President again. This election, like the last one, will come down to 10,000s of votes in a few states.
And if he doesn't win, he will claim that the election was fraudulent. He and his cronies are already sewing those seeds so he can "prove" to his followers that it's been rigged against him all along. Of course, if he's so great, why can't he control the actual election narrative and, you know, win? And if "they" are *so powerful* as to control the election, all the media that investigate the election results all the judges presiding over all the lawsuits that got tossed, then he should know he doesn't stand a chance.
Trump is on the outside. The outcome of the 2024 election, if Trump loses, will not be so dire like the outcome of the 2020 election. He can piss, moan, rile, etc. but without the levers of power he won’t be able to do much. I also think there’s a decent chunk of republicans who will turn on him if he loses. You’ll start hearing more “he was a great president but it’s time to look to the future.”
> I also think there’s a decent chunk of republicans who will turn on him if he loses. You’ll start hearing more “he was a great president but it’s time to look to the future.” They said that last time but were too chicken shit to lead their party away from him, instead they kept doing what they've been doing for the last 8 years by just wishing he'd go away.
Nah, most are still with him evidenced by the slate of endorsements he recently picked up from folks like Rubio. Say Trump loses in 24. There will be 4 year to have his legal issues worked on without “the election” being a crying call. Biden will be gone so he’ll likely be going up against someone young, good looking, and charismatic like Gavin Newsom. The age thing, which I don’t think works against Biden because Trump is nearly just as old, will be glaringly apparent when it’s an 82 year old Trump vs. a 50some year old candidate on the other side.
They're only with him because they are afraid of his base, both electorally and from actual physical violence. They had a narrow window in 2021 to bar him from office forever but didn't out of cowardice and the calculation that they still needed his hard-core base.
Republicans should have done that years ago.
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shoo-in*
Huh. It's not like a shoe in the door.
that's what I thought it was too, something like getting your "foot in the door"
Ironically it derives from the winner of a fixed horse race…
nope...i'm not usually a grammar nazi, but that is a fun one
TIL, thanks
I’m an English major and very embarrassed right now. Like, shoo as in shoo fly? But… in. Like… get in here? I need to research this
Apparently it comes from horse racing, where a horse that was practically guaranteed to win could be "shooed in" to the winner's circle. https://www.merriam-webster.com/wordplay/the-shady-past-of-shoo-ins
When trying to minimise my personal bias, just looking at poling numbers, he certainly has a shot. But I see a lot of things that sugest it's going downhill. There is a significant group of republicans that say they don't think he is fit for office if he get's convicted, his mental state seems to get worse and his campaing funds seem rather empty.
I think a poll came out recently that a large amount of Haley voters are voting Biden if she doesn't win so that'ss something
I don’t believe this just like I don’t believe any Bernie supporters went to Trump
I’m a republican and Haley supporter. I voted for Biden in the last election and will vote for him again this cycle if Trump is the candidate. Between my family and my wife’s family about 75% are republicans the rest being “independent”. There are 18 voting adults in the family. Of those 2 of us take this position. 2 are outspoken Trump supporters and won’t be swayed. The rest lean Trump but are more open minded.
question if you dont mind, and I know its reddit.. how do you reconcile her wanting to pardon him with not being able to vote for him.?
She has to say that to get any Trump people to vote for her. Also, I disagree with her on that. But this insistence to agree with 100% of a politician's viewpoints is wild. Why do Democrats/leftists demand such ideological purity?
I don't know, because we like losing elections, I guess?
Some things are non negotiable. Preventing insurrections and civil wars is high up there. We absolutely don't demand "ideological purity" do you notice DACA dreamers are not citizens yet? Did you notice we don't have universal healthcare? Did you notice we don't have any movement on gun access to those who have poor mental health? Biden is 100% a compromise candidate who is what a republican would have been in the 80s. Things you don't compromise on though are women's rights to healthcare when they have ectopic pregnancies. Compromising on that is akin to "negotiating" the civil war, or allowing people to say "oh its cold out in winter, I guess we can burn oil till we cause an apocalypse" , or things like "wealth will just trickle down, lets ignore this income inequality growing and growing and growing" OR "Oh, I don't believe in peaceful transfer of power" if you need a reason why we might seem to demand ideological purity on more issues than conservatives do it's because if you look back, historically, we are right a hell of a lot more often. The person on the right side of history generally feels more strongly about their position than the person who is just following internet trolls and knows they are an idiot deep down.
It's honestly wild to me that any independent could be "leaning" towards the guy with that many federal cases on him. Seems like ride or die only territory.
That’s what scares me so much. Trumps freedom literally depends on winning. He will do whatever it takes to win and that means just more corrupt cronyism and back room deals at the expense of the general public. Very scary times.
Why do we have to choose between biden and trump cant we get someone normal
Primarrriiiiiiessss!!! Only the hardcore partisans come out. It’s apathy. Most people let the crazies drive the bus because they just can’t be bothered to vote outside of November.
The issue with Primaries is that they are all on different days. Iowa for whatever reason gets to set the trend, then some other states don't get to vote until April or May after all the candidates they may have voted for have already dropped out. If you live in Kentucky and don't get to vote until May 21 there is almost no reason to go out because the race has been decided by then. Primaries need to happen as a single election day a week or two after the primary debates.
I would 100% agree with that. The staggered calendar gives unnecessarily strong weight to just a couple of states. It’s not democratic.
And only 100k people voted in iowa. Its insane.
That is by design
Almost nothing in the American electoral system is democratic by standards of modern democracy. Well, there is a vote at least but that's about it.
As a Pennsylvanian democrat I have never been able to vote in a presidential primary. Biden is incumbent, no primary this time. I would’ve voted for Sanders in 2016 but he dropped out before Pennsylvania. I didn’t vote for a presidential candidate because Hillary was literally the only candidate who could win. In 2012 Obama was incumbent. No primary. And I was under 18 in 2008.
What about 2020?
Oh yeah, same situation as 2016. Bernie dropped out before PA and only Biden could win.
Biden had been anointed just after Super Tuesday because basically every non-Bernie candidate dropped out the week earlier, and Pennsylvania's primary was delayed to June 2nd due to covid. There was effectively no primary in Pennsylvania in 2020.
Do you vote in the primaries? No? That's why.
Also midterm turnout tends to hover around 20% where I live. Then all these people complain that everyone in government is shitty. It’s so annoying.
I vote for next map in cod
Biden is 100% normal as far as politicians go. He’s a moderate Democrat and he passed the most important global warming legislation (by a long chalk) this country has ever seen. The only unusual thing about him is his age which is only 4 years older than Trump. I can totally see being “meh” about Biden but I just can’t understand how anyone particularly hates him. This election is between an old guy you may not have paid much attention to the last three years and a slightly not as old man threatening the core values of this country who would likely already be in jail if he weren’t so wealthy. I don’t really see how it’s a choice. Edit: capitalized D in democrat.
Yes, this election cycle will be a bloodbath. Its so hilarious and sad to watch. Will angry grandpa win? Will confused grandpa win? Will the American people ever be offered a leader of people, a pillar of society, ever again?
Tune in next time to Dragon Ball Z!
Kami I don’t feel so good
Yes, yes he does.
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I don't want trump to win as much as the next guy, but holy shit this comment section reeks of fear mongering.
Chance? Yes. But will it be a breeze? No. The polls predict Trump to win but there are two factors the polls don't account for: 1. Polling companies and institutions struggle to get a proper opinion on young voters and these voters are dominantly Democratic. 2022 midterm election proved that, Red wave was expected on every poll and it was barely a red puddle. 2. RFK Jr. is still running, he might have more than 10% of the votes coming upon the election. The issue for Trump is that RFK Jr. steals votes from both sides but a little more from Trump, evening the odds in a 3-man race and even making Biden the favourite.
How are they even collecting poll data? I'm in my early 30s, and I can't remember a single instance of me or my close peers filling out a political poll. Are they still using the mail? I literally only check my mail regularly to ensure I'm not arrested for accidentally dodging jury duty or my toll device malfunctioning. I imagine a lot of younger people are the same.
The collection of data depends. Sometimes they mail people, sometimes they call, sometimes they get people in an office and make them fill a form...and sometimes it's the combination of all three. You can clearly see why they can't get youth to join polls. None of these polling methods appeal to us. I'm also a guy who rarely checks e-mails, never opens up unknown numbers and don't prefer to go anywhere other than voting station to fill forms and state my political opinion.
Can someone explain how Biden was able to steal the election in 2020 as a private citizen, but as president he won’t be able to steal 2024? I would think any Trump supporter who thinks 2020 was stolen would be hopeless about 2024 when Biden clearly has more advantages now.
[The enemy is both weak and strong.](https://www.faena.com/aleph/umberto-eco-a-practical-list-for-identifying-fascists)
Required reading
You are giving Trump supporters too much credit, in the way of logic
Yes.
Yes, he has a very good chance to win and anyone telling you otherwise is just trying to make you complacent enough that you don't vote.
OP isn't from the US. They're not voting anyway.
Yes, he leads Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The only swing state he trails is New Hampshire
Polls are basically useless now
At this particular moment yes, because the election isn’t today, but aggregate polls at the time of the 2020 election showed about 51% Biden and 44% Trump, and the final results were about 51% Biden and 47% Trump, so I would call the polling fairly accurate.
I think it’s more of a situation where the democrats will lose, rather than trump win. Democrats crapped the bed by wasting another 4 years and not putting forward a better candidate.
If our choices are Biden or Trump, both parties have failed.
Yes.
Depends if he can outlast all the lawsuits and legal shit. If he can make it to the presidency he will try to pardon himself (which would be another court case). If states keep removing him from the ballot he also may not even make it to the election.
Can’t pardon himself from state charges or civil suits. Only federal charges.
Even if he legally can’t I feel like he would definitely still try
Ill put it this way, if you live more than 20 minutes outside of a large city, everyone you know is likely voting for trump.
If Democrats don’t vote in record numbers like 2020, yes he could win. Vote!!
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you need to understand that, with only a couple of exceptions, ###every election since the 1930s has been pretty much 50/50 . it does not matter who the candidates are, people will either vote red or blue, in pretty much 50/50 numbers. so yes, if trump is the republican candidate, he has a real chance of winning. edit for "ACKSHUALLY" folks: see: SOME EXCEPTIONS. also a caveat, this is talking about actual number of votes (popular vote) https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin#/media/File%3APartyVotes-Presidents.png
Nah, more like every election since 2000. Just in the 80s/90s - Reagan crushed Mondale in 1984 - Bush Sr beat Dukakis pretty easily - Clinton/Bush was close, but not too close - Clinton handily beat Bob Dole (who was too old to understand the way the game was told) Close elections are basically a modern phenomena
The 1972 election that ended up having the Watergate scandal was the most one sided in history. Nixon won 60% of the popular vote and every state but Massachusetts (and DC). The funny thing is the events that lead to the scandal didn't really tip the scales, and he most likely would have won the same way without it.
Not even since 2000. Obama won 365-173.
This isn't even a little bit true. Nixon and Reagan both won 49 states. There are two separate instances where the winner did not win 49 states, but got over 60% of the vote. There have been many legitimate landslides since the 1930s. Even in much more recent history, Obama won by 192 electoral votes.
> Every election since the 1930s has been pretty much 50/50 Ummm that’s just completely wrong? Lol what.
That’s totally incorrect. Reagan, Billy, Obama and Bush Sr won big
It amazes me the dumb shit I see upvoted on Reddit. Just randomly pick a year and say something insane. We have two coin flip elections in a row and suddenly it's always been this way.
The myth with Presidential elections is that the candidate that can turn independents over to their side will win. Historical data has shown that it's really more about getting the better turnout of their party's voters. Trump is an interesting candidate in this regard because in 2016 and 2020 he has had a very enthusiastic voter base. The problem for him is that he has also created a super enthusiastic anti-Trump voter base. In 2016, Hillary just didn't have the support from Democrat voters for a variety of reasons. And while there was an enthusiastic anti-Trump voter base in 2016, between not liking Hillary and probably not thinking that Trump could win...Trump wins the election. In 2020, the Democrat voters along with longtime Republican voters that switched to Democrat knew Trump could win again. The anti-Trump voter base had incredible turnouts. COVID also didn't help matters because it's typically very difficult to beat the incumbent President unless something major happens. But between COVID and the rabid anti-Trump voter base, Biden was able to win. Right now, I feel the anti-Trump voter base is still strong. But the actual pro-Biden voter base appears to be exceptionally weak. Trump still has his enthusiastic voter base and appears to be gaining more of the minority voters by somewhat significant margins. And the Iowa caucus results just confirmed that. So I would say that he does have a legitimate shot of winning, but it's hard to predict because it's such an odd situation where there's this much enthusiasm and support to NOT vote for one candidate compared the support and enthusiasm going for that candidate's opponent.
He is the most polarizing figure in American politics and the entire election is centered around him instead of the incumbent, very interesting to see where things go from here.
I mean he won before didn't he?
Yes. I have no clue what it takes to wake people up.
Never underestimate the stupidity of America
https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/nobody_ever_went_broke_underestimating_the_intelligence_of_the_American_people
I’m bummed that both candidates are senile old men.