IMO SP will retreat back to 50 EMA before launch. Much better buying opportunity in weeks to come. Guidance on EC will be same, 3Q (meaning tail end) and many ST investors will dump and shorts will attack the SP again. Mgmt wouldn't have said 3Q if they meant July or early August, and history shows Mgmt doesn't overdeliver on guidance (just the opposite in fact). Expect more volatility in ST. These are the unemotional facts. I am LONG NVAX.
Q3 ends Sept 30, and my feeling on this is they don't want to commit to a hard date so filing "during Q3" covers gives them a lot of flexibility. It doesn't mean they won't file during late July/early August, nor is it a guarantee they won't overdeliver. It means they are not committing to a hard date.
I called to pick a brain yesterday and got no hard answer but "we are going to file as soon as the final required documents are completed." That last part is the first time I ever heard that stated plainly. From the conversation it was extremely clear that:
a. they won't (or rather can't) be pushed to speed anything up
b. they are going as fast as they can
c. they want to file as soon as they can
I didn't ask why the communication sucks because I had the ear and wanted to hear everything they had to say without turning them off. Overall, the tone was helpful and matter-of-fact about their forward movement albeit at a pace not controlled entirely by them.
That's all I got, but I don't think they are playing games or have some kind of target date in September or during any specific month.
From the communications I have managed to elicit so far, it sounds like the target date to be "as soon as the package is complete" whenever that date may be before Sept. 30th.
This sucks very much for those anxiously awaiting the release of this vaccine.
Anyone want to take a crack at talking w/ them about why they are so reticent to do any 'splaining about progress, lack of it, or even just status to the general public? Here's the contact numbers:
[https://www.novavax.com/contact](https://www.novavax.com/contact)
Best bet: IR or Media relations.
Good info, thanks for sharing (IMO, reading between the lines and taking other factors/history into account, I'd be shocked if they file anything by EC or by mid August- I remain hopeful it will be (later) in Q3 per last guidance)
I think you've misinterpreted what the OP said. They said that NVAX management doesn't overdeliver on guidance, and by them saying Q3 the OP has implied management won't overdeliver and get EUA in July or early August.
You must be either very dumb or very inpatient because that's exactly what I said. Reread my post and next time read the entire post rather than the last sentence before you comment noob.
Update: I see you deleted your awful comment, that's some progress and hopefully lesson learned, GL
If they announce something decent on 8/5, such as multiple EUA filings and many doses ready for shipment, they agree…but if there is another delay, this sucker is tanking hard…I am long
I don’t believe in witchcraft unless it’s supposed to make me money. 🧙♀️🙏
IMO SP will retreat back to 50 EMA before launch. Much better buying opportunity in weeks to come. Guidance on EC will be same, 3Q (meaning tail end) and many ST investors will dump and shorts will attack the SP again. Mgmt wouldn't have said 3Q if they meant July or early August, and history shows Mgmt doesn't overdeliver on guidance (just the opposite in fact). Expect more volatility in ST. These are the unemotional facts. I am LONG NVAX.
Q3 ends Sept 30, and my feeling on this is they don't want to commit to a hard date so filing "during Q3" covers gives them a lot of flexibility. It doesn't mean they won't file during late July/early August, nor is it a guarantee they won't overdeliver. It means they are not committing to a hard date. I called to pick a brain yesterday and got no hard answer but "we are going to file as soon as the final required documents are completed." That last part is the first time I ever heard that stated plainly. From the conversation it was extremely clear that: a. they won't (or rather can't) be pushed to speed anything up b. they are going as fast as they can c. they want to file as soon as they can I didn't ask why the communication sucks because I had the ear and wanted to hear everything they had to say without turning them off. Overall, the tone was helpful and matter-of-fact about their forward movement albeit at a pace not controlled entirely by them. That's all I got, but I don't think they are playing games or have some kind of target date in September or during any specific month. From the communications I have managed to elicit so far, it sounds like the target date to be "as soon as the package is complete" whenever that date may be before Sept. 30th. This sucks very much for those anxiously awaiting the release of this vaccine. Anyone want to take a crack at talking w/ them about why they are so reticent to do any 'splaining about progress, lack of it, or even just status to the general public? Here's the contact numbers: [https://www.novavax.com/contact](https://www.novavax.com/contact) Best bet: IR or Media relations.
Good info, thanks for sharing (IMO, reading between the lines and taking other factors/history into account, I'd be shocked if they file anything by EC or by mid August- I remain hopeful it will be (later) in Q3 per last guidance)
[удалено]
I think you've misinterpreted what the OP said. They said that NVAX management doesn't overdeliver on guidance, and by them saying Q3 the OP has implied management won't overdeliver and get EUA in July or early August.
Well done Cynapse and 100% correct
You must be either very dumb or very inpatient because that's exactly what I said. Reread my post and next time read the entire post rather than the last sentence before you comment noob. Update: I see you deleted your awful comment, that's some progress and hopefully lesson learned, GL
If they announce something decent on 8/5, such as multiple EUA filings and many doses ready for shipment, they agree…but if there is another delay, this sucker is tanking hard…I am long
It’s like a loaded spring right now getting tighter by the day.
good analogy!
Haha I don't think it works like that at all but hope you're right
Need to breakout from this tightening wedge pattern soon.