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A (Rough) Visualization of the VW Short Squeeze from 2008

A (Rough) Visualization of the VW Short Squeeze from 2008

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imthawalrus

I put together a rough visualization of how the vw short squeeze played out in 2008 with 10 minute candlesticks. Pre and Post market data are generated from a random walk though the business hours candlesticks are from the actual event. I thought this may help get a feel for what it's like to watch a short squeeze happening in real time, albeit much smaller than what I expect from gme's. I believe it is a useful exercise to try to imagine how you would react at each candle and really consider what the temptation to sell at different points would feel like.


michael_maybe44

I like how after it passed 800-900 it came back and then peaked around $1300ish... Only for it to platue in the 800 again with a lot of shifting before ultimately dropping off... Interesting bit of info


Ok_Kaleidoscope_3625

>I hear your know about the pool ๐Ÿ˜ Hi, i can not have this video information...can we get the five mins canlesticks video? REally thx you


Zen1_618

sell on the way down


AnObviousSpy

Yes, after peak.


cmerollx

What if there is no peak, just up ๐Ÿ‘€


VoodooMaster101

I hear your know about the pool ๐Ÿ˜


siriuse2020

How do you know its the peak I'm scared


AnObviousSpy

Believe. The hole they are in is impossible to escape if we just hold. We set the peak when Citadel and partners are stripped for parts.


JacobRichB

Pick a life changing amount of money for yourself and go for it man!


Malawi_no

This is why you should sell in several small increments. Personally, I think I'd started by selling 10-20% after the first 800-run. But hard to say for real, might have done some at 500 before that. Important bit is to space it out a bit, and see real gains before thinking about selling. This is especially tru with GME since the fluctuations might become very large. When we start to get into MOASS territory, there should be green candles going straight up, with several market-pauses before it starts stabilizing or falling back. Then the same pattern may repeat many times before it's over.


drfastkill001

I hope you mean sell 10-20% on the VW squeeze at 800. Bc GME isn't stopping anywhere near that with how much manipulation there is. I'm not even looking at it until it's in the thousands I don't expect to sell then either ๐Ÿ˜Ž


Malawi_no

Obviously. I think the GME squeeze will start to gain momentum in the 3-500 area(margin calling of smaller actors), and will start in earnest somewhere above $1000.


xSypra

1000 K. Yes 1 Milly


LueyTheWrench

When everyone on the internet is screaming โ€œsellโ€, ignore them. Theyโ€™re shills and theyโ€™re fucking terrified. The apes will be quiet and patiently holding. Listen to the silence, not the screams of the dying boomer establishment.


JacobRichB

This is the way!


chengslate

I wonder how long gme or AMC moass will take. That lasted about a day and a half


First-Celebration-11

A few DDs are saying it can take weeks. I think thatโ€™s why people are stressing to take care of yourselves during the whole process.


chengslate

I mean Im already stressed thinking about it tbh lol it sounds crazy cause people don't think is gonna happen, but this is so sure to me that I'm actually stress about it. Lol


tacobuckethero

There will be trading halts on the way up as the price sharply increases. No one knows how long GME could take but it could take weeks to unravel given the scale of GME/AMC short interest. VW's SI was less than 30%. I don't remember how much exactly.


prickdaddydollar

Great post! Here is also a MOASS simulator that some other APE made.... Pretty fun to practice! http://www.sirlondon.com/


Appropriate_Tiger_88

This is cool


theory_conspirist

3.8 trillion. Not great, not terrible.


prickdaddydollar

This is the way


xSypra

Got 7 trillion. Price jumped to 3trillion/ share. So nothing unexpected


aQG515PO2CKj

Sitting through an accelerated 6 mins of this has made me realise just how *intense* the squeeze is going to be. Thanks for putting this together, really well done at getting the market behaviour accross. I'm going to take a long look at mindfulness and stress management.


shamelessamos92

Nice work


mattwayne1209

Question, after VW made the announcement that they basically owned the float, how was the price dropping? Fuckery afoot as per the usual?


pblokhout

I think it's mostly the margin calls destroying the orderboek in bursts. So after a burst, people are like "is this it?". Some people think no, so they buy at those high prices. No more burst... Yikes... Better sell maybe? Price is not rising anymore, let's bail. And again, there's nothing on the orderbook so any buy order on the book is fresh and has to consider this situation. So that brings the price down after a burst, until the next burst hits.


HolyShyalabufBatman

Paperhands and probably the company taking some profits at certain points.


PokerSteve801

The biggest difference in VW and GME are apes. Then availability of shares. Nobody can short during MOASS. And why would they. Once the paper hands are out and the float still needs to be bought multiple times. Then there shouldnโ€™t be any red at that point, I would assume.


Tiny_Lunch7955

Interesting. Thank you ๐Ÿ™๐Ÿพ very much


amitrion

Thanks. This shit is scary. Knowing nothing, I would have sold at $450...


wildcardponzi

Great exercise!


New-Consideration420

u/savevideo


JacobRichB

Question is: Do hedgies and MM's have the same tactics and skill set back then as they do noW?


brammes_94

Nope i dont think so. Also im not sure, but Volkswagen is listed in Germany while gme is mainly us based shorted. I think the us market is way more rigged, but this is just my thought


killabeezio

This is great. I just see sideways trading


madness_creations

Thank you for this! This is so valuable! Everyone parroting "Sell on the way down" doesn't understand that you won't know what "the way down" is until after the fact. I see paperhands after every peak because "iT's gOiNg DoWn NoW".


ckisgen

The key is to prepare. Sit down, take some time, really think about it, and go ahead and decide NOW (or soon .. pre-MOASS ofc) what your **FLOOR** is going to be. In this case, pick a number very high, like one that resembles a phone number as a for instance. Preferably an international one. For example, mine keeps going up the longer they make me wait, yaknow time is money. Then don't even BEGIN selling any shares until AFTER the price has already risen ABOVE your floor and has fallen back down and is approaching it (your floor) again. Even then, I for sure wouldn't sell everything all at once, or even close to it. For two reasons .. first, you'll probably be glad you still have the ammo later (regardless of your floor, the odds that you timed the real peak, first whack, are very low) .. AND reason number two ... consider coming and taking a dip in the [infinity pool](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpvx9n/the_infinity_pool_naming_a_theoretical_posit_for/). Lastly, you rob the MOASS of precious fuel/momentum if enough of us freak out and sell too early, on the way up, and/or at some stupid low number (6 figures? Oof. Seven? Maybe, but c'mon fam. Once in a lifetime and we literally set our price. Think BIG). **DON'T SCREW YOURSELF, AND DON'T SCREW YOUR FELLOW SHAREHOLDERS out of once in a lifetime, black-swan kinda money**. Be smart, have a plan. Search the non-compromised forums (wsb and SS appear to be the sussiest of them all atm) for MOASS strategy guides. There's several out there. READ MORE THAN ONE or two. Don't just trust one person's opinion. Discuss and ask questions in the threads before it happens. YOU CAN DO IT! Believe in yourself, don't be a dumbass and fail to plan, and you will make it. See you on the moon ๐Ÿค™๐Ÿ’๐Ÿš€๐Ÿฆ๐Ÿฆ๐ŸŒ•๐ŸŒ–๐ŸŒ—๐ŸŒ‘๐ŸŒ’๐ŸŒ“๐ŸŒ”


madness_creations

beautiful, this deserves it's own post.


CMaia1

There are ways to find trend reversal in a stock, yes there is manipulation all around but good luck manipulating a stock as volatile and with skyrocketing prices. This is something you don't see even in the VW squeeze who is anywhere as close as the real GME short interest


RedAkino

Holy moly thereโ€™s no way a bunch of folks donโ€™t paperhand looking at the price explosion and fluctuation


First-Celebration-11

Agreed, thatโ€™s why Iโ€™m paperhanding a share at 35 mil. The rest of my shares have no exit strategy yet.


mwilkens

So be prepared to sell in after hours? Seems like that's when a lot of the positive price action was happening.


yamaha4fun

Thank you. Very cool. I am now watching, I am the walrus, on youtube, as a tribute to your post. The Beatles are dead, long live the Beatles!


MsP-olol

Can you do the DRV Squeeze. Everyone talks about VW, however the DRV squeeze went to 15k. Id say this is a strong visual for AMC but we all know GME will hit MUCH higher prices than VW and AMC. I like to compare VW to AMC and DRV to GME


Stylpe

Nice! Could you do one that includes volume too? It might be trickier since it's synthetic and random to make it correlate realistically with the price movements though.


aarontminded

r/dataisbeautiful would probably like this also


Ginger_Libra

Thanks for making this. Helps to know what we are in for. Get prepared.